High rates of death and loss to follow-up by 12 months of rifampicin resistant TB treatment in South Africa

Introduction

Treatment success rates of rifampicin resistant (RR)/multi-drug resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) in South Africa range from 43–48%, falling short of the World Health Organization’s target of ≥75%. We present rates and assess predictors of attrition by 12 months on treatment.

Methods

Prospective observational cohort analysis of adults (≥18 years) initiating RR/MDR-TB treatment from 01 March 2013 to 30 September 2016. Attrition was defined as a combination of death and loss to follow-up (LTFU; treatment interruption ≥2 months) by 12 months on treatment. Predictors of attrition were identified using Cox Proportional Hazards models to estimate crude (HR) and adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals.

Results

By 12 months on treatment, 75/240 (31.3%) patients had either died (37/240; 15.4%) or been LTFU (38/240; 15.8%). Patients with moderate/severe anaemia (aHR: 2.10; 95% CI 1.00–4.39), and those who were smear positive at baseline (aHR: 2.04; 95% CI 1.01–4.12) were significantly more likely to die or be lost from care.

Conclusion

At this outpatient DR-TB treatment site, there was a high rate of attrition halfway through the standard treatment course at 12 months of 31%. High rates of attrition by 12 months on treatment may continue during the second-half of therapy.

Prevalence, incidence, predictors, treatment, and control of hypertension among HIV-positive adults on antiretroviral treatment in public sector treatment programs in South Africa

BACKGROUND

One of the key risk factors for cardiovascular disease is hypertension. Hypertension, which leads to heart attacks and strokes, already affects one billion people worldwide, making it a global public health issue. Incidence and prevalence of the condition is on the rise in low- and middle-income countries, with the biggest increase in sub-Saharan Africa and South Africa at the forefront. We examined the prevalence, incidence, predictors, treatment, and control of hypertension among HIV-positive patients on ART in a large South African observational cohort.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective study of ART naïve adults initiating ART at a public sector HIV clinic in South Africa between April 2004-2017. Patients with diagnosed hypertension at ART initiation were excluded from the incidence analysis. Log-binomial regression was used to estimate predictors of hypertension at ART initiation, while competing risks regression was used to evaluate the relationship between predictors of incident hypertension, accounting for death as a competing risk.

RESULTS

Among 77,696 eligible patients, 22.0% had prevalent hypertension at ART initiation. Of the remaining patients with no hypertension at ART initiation, 8,125 incident hypertension cases were diagnosed over the period of follow-up, corresponding to an incident rate of 5.4 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI): 5.3-5.6). We found patients ≥40 years of age and patients with a body mass index (BMI) ≥25kg/m2 were at increased risk of both prevalent and incident hypertension. Male patients and those with pre-hypertension at ART initiation had increased hazards of hypertension over the period of follow-up. When assessing the choice of antiretroviral drug in first-line ART, patients initiated on nevirapine were at 27% increased risk of developing hypertension compared to those initiated on efavirenz, while patients who initiated on either zidovudine or stavudine had a 40% increased risk of developing hypertension compared to patients initiated on tenofovir. Patientswith poorer health status at ART initiation (i.e. WHO III/IV stage, low CD4 count, low hemoglobin levels and low BMI) had a decrease risk of prevalent hypertension. We found an inverse relationship in patients with a CD4 count <50 cells/mm3 at ART initiation who had a 25% increased risk of incident hypertension compared to those with a CD4 count ≥350 cells/mm3.

CONCLUSION

Over 20% of patients in our cohort had hypertension at ART initiation, and 13% of those with normal blood pressure at ART initiation developed hypertension while on ART. Older patients, males, those on nevirapine, zidovudine or stavudine, and those who are overweight/obese should be targeted for frequent blood pressure monitoring and the identification of other cardiovascular risk factors to encourage lifestyle modifications. Additionally, these groups should be offered pharmaceutical therapy to help prevent myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, and kidney disease. Further research is needed to determine the level of access and adherence to pharmaceutical treatment for hypertension in this population. Additionally, an HIV-negative comparison population is needed to assess the association of the HIV virus itself with hypertension.

Implementation of Option B and a fixed-dose combination antiretroviral regimen for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in South Africa: A model of uptake and adherence to care

INTRODUCTION

Initiating and retaining pregnant women on antiretroviral therapy (ART) to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) remains a major challenge facing African HIV programs, particularly during the critical final months prior to delivery. In 2013, South Africa implemented its "Option B" PMTCT regimen (three-drug ART throughout pregnancy and breastfeeding, regardless of maternal CD4 count) and introduced once-daily fixed-dose combinations and lifelong ART. Currently, the uptake of Option B and its possible impact on adherence to PMTCT during the critical final months of pregnancy is unclear.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We prospectively collected visit data from a cohort of adult, HIV-infected, pregnant women between July 2013-August 2014 to estimate three models of adherence to PMTCT during the final 16 weeks immediately preceding delivery. Adherence was defined according to possession of antiretroviral drugs, which was inferred from clinic visit records under varying assumptions in each model. We describe uptake of the PMTCT regimen, gestational age at initiation, and model possible scenarios of adherence through delivery after the implementation of Option B.

RESULTS

Among 138 women enrolled (median (IQR) age 28 years (24-32), median CD4 count 378 cells/mm3), median (IQR) gestational age at initiation was 22 weeks (16-26). Estimates of adherence during the final 16 weeks of pregnancy prior to delivery ranged from 75% (52-89%) under the best case scenario assumptions to 52% (30-75%) under the worst case scenario assumptions. Estimates of the proportion of women who would achieve 80% adherence to PMTCT were <50% across all models.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the switch to Option B and once-daily dosing, South African women continue to initiate PMTCT late in pregnancy, and estimations of regimen adherence, as modelled using PMTCT visit attendance data, is poor, with <50% of women reaching 80% adherence during final months of pregnancy across all models. Further guideline changes and interventions are needed to achieve vertical transmission goals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01710397 South African National Clinical Trials Register DOH-27-0213-4177.

Failure to initiate HIV treatment in patients with high CD4 counts: evidence from demographic surveillance in rural South Africa

OBJECTIVES

To assess the relationship between CD4 count at presentation and ART uptake and assess predictors of timely treatment initiation in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

METHODS

We used Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between first CD4 count and time from first CD4 to ART initiation among all adults presenting to the Hlabisa HIV Treatment and Care Programme between August 2011 and December 2012 with treatment-eligible CD4 counts (≤ 350 cells/mm3 ). For a subset of healthier patients (200 < CD4 ≤ 350 cells) residing within the population surveillance of the Africa Health Research Institute, we assessed sociodemographic, economic and geographic predictors hypothesised to influence ART uptake.

RESULTS

A total of 4739 patients presented for care with eligible CD4 counts. The proportion initiating ART within six months of diagnosis was 67% (95% CI 63, 71) in patients with CD4 ≤ 50, 59% (0.55, 0.63) in patients with CD4 151-200 and 48% (95% CI 44, 51) in patients with CD4 301-350. The hazard of starting ART fell by 17% (95% CI 14, 20) for every 100-cell increase in baseline CD4 count. Among healthier patients under demographic surveillance (n = 193), observable sociodemographic, economic and geographic predictors did not add discriminatory power beyond CD4 count, age and sex to identify patients at high risk of non-initiation.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals presenting for HIV care at higher CD4 counts were less likely to initiate ART than patients presenting at low CD4 counts. Overall, ART uptake was low. Under new guidelines that establish ART eligibility regardless of CD4 count, patients with high CD4 counts may require additional interventions to encourage treatment initiation.

Assessing the impact of the National Department of Health's National Adherence Guidelines for Chronic Diseases in South Africa using routinely collected data: a cluster-randomised evaluation

INTRODUCTION

In 2016, South Africa's National Department of Health (NDOH) launched the National Adherence Guidelines for Chronic Diseases for phased implementation throughout South Africa. Early implementation of a 'minimum package' of eight interventions in the Adherence Guidelines for patients with HIV is being undertaken at 12 primary health clinics and community health centres in four provinces. NDOH and its partners are evaluating the impact of five of the interventions in four provinces in South Africa.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The minimum package is being delivered at the 12 health facilities under NDOH guidance and through local health authorities. The five evaluation interventions are: (1) fast track initiation counselling for patients eligible for antiretroviral therapy (ART); (2) adherence clubs for stable ART patients; (3) decentralised medication delivery for stable ART patients; (4) enhanced adherence counselling for unstable ART patients; and (5) early tracing of patients who miss an appointment by ≥5 days. For evaluation, NDOH matched the 12 intervention clinics with 12 comparison clinics and randomly allocated one member of each pair to intervention or comparison (standard of care) status within pairs, allowing evaluation of the interventions using a matched cluster-randomised design. The evaluation uses data routinely collected by the clinics, with no study interaction with subjects to prevent influencing the primary outcomes. Enrolment began on 20 June 2016 and was completed on 16 December 2016. A total of 3456 patients were enrolled and will now be followed for 14 months to estimate effects on short-term and final outcomes. Primary outcomes include viral suppression, retention and medication pickups, evaluated at two time points during follow-up.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study received approval from the University of Witwatersrand Human Research Ethics Committee and Boston University Institutional Review Board. Results will be presented to key stakeholders and at international conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02536768; Pre-results.

Treatment eligibility and retention in clinical HIV care: A regression discontinuity study in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Loss to follow-up is high among HIV patients not yet receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Clinical trials have demonstrated the clinical efficacy of early ART; however, these trials may miss an important real-world consequence of providing ART at diagnosis: its impact on retention in care.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We examined the effect of immediate (versus deferred) ART on retention in care using a regression discontinuity design. The analysis included all patients (N = 11,306) entering clinical HIV care with a first CD4 count between 12 August 2011 and 31 December 2012 in a public-sector HIV care and treatment program in rural South Africa. Patients were assigned to immediate versus deferred ART eligibility, as determined by a CD4 count < 350 cells/μl, per South African national guidelines. Patients referred to pre-ART care were instructed to return every 6 months for CD4 monitoring. Patients initiated on ART were instructed to return at 6 and 12 months post-initiation and annually thereafter for CD4 and viral load monitoring. We assessed retention in HIV care at 12 months, as measured by the presence of a clinic visit, lab test, or ART initiation 6 to 18 months after initial CD4 test. Differences in retention between patients presenting with CD4 counts just above versus just below the 350-cells/μl threshold were estimated using local linear regression models with a data-driven bandwidth and with the algorithm for selecting the bandwidth chosen ex ante. Among patients with CD4 counts close to the 350-cells/μl threshold, having an ART-eligible CD4 count (<350 cells/μl) was associated with higher 12-month retention than not having an ART-eligible CD4 count (50% versus 32%), an intention-to-treat risk difference of 18 percentage points (95% CI 11 to 23; p < 0.001). The decision to start ART was determined by CD4 count for one in four patients (25%) presenting close to the eligibility threshold (95% CI 20% to 31%; p < 0.001). In this subpopulation, having an ART-eligible CD4 count was associated with higher 12-month retention than not having an ART-eligible CD4 count (91% versus 21%), a complier causal risk difference of 70 percentage points (95% CI 42 to 98; p < 0.001). The major limitations of the study are the potential for limited generalizability, the potential for outcome misclassification, and the absence of data on longer-term health outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who were eligible for immediate ART had dramatically higher retention in HIV care than patients who just missed the CD4-count eligibility cutoff. The clinical and population health benefits of offering immediate ART regardless of CD4 count may be larger than suggested by clinical trials.

Changing the South African national antiretroviral therapy guidelines: The role of cost modelling

BACKGROUND

We were tasked by the South African Department of Health to assess the cost implications to the largest ART programme in the world of adopting sets of ART guidelines issued by the World Health Organization between 2010 and 2016.

METHODS

Using data from large South African ART clinics (n = 24,244 patients), projections of patients in need of ART, and cost data from bottom-up cost analyses, we constructed a population-level health-state transition model with 6-monthly transitions between health states depending on patients' age, CD4 cell count/ percentage, and, for adult first-line ART, time on treatment.

FINDINGS

For each set of guidelines, the modelled increase in patient numbers as a result of prevalence and uptake was substantially more than the increase resulting from additional eligibility. Under each set of guidelines, the number of people on ART was projected to increase by 31-133% over the next seven years, and cost by 84-175%, while increased eligibility led to 1-26% more patients, and 1-17% higher cost. The projected increases in treatment cost due to the 2010 and the 2015 WHO guidelines could be offset in their entirety by the introduction of cost-saving measures such as opening the drug tenders for international competition and task-shifting. Under universal treatment, annual costs of the treatment programme will decrease for the first time from 2024 onwards.

CONCLUSIONS

Annual budgetary requirements for ART will continue to increase in South Africa until universal treatment is taken to full scale. Model results were instrumental in changing South African ART guidelines, more than tripling the population on treatment between 2009 and 2017, and reducing the per-patient cost of treatment by 64%.

Revealed willingness-to-pay versus standard cost-effectiveness thresholds: Evidence from the South African HIV Investment Case

BACKGROUND

The use of cost-effectiveness thresholds based on a country's income per capita has been criticized for not being relevant to decision making, in particular in middle-income countries such as South Africa. The recent South African HIV Investment Case produced an alternative cost-effectiveness threshold for HIV prevention and treatment interventions based on estimates of life years saved and the country's committed HIV budget.

METHODS

We analysed the optimal mix of HIV interventions over a baseline of the current HIV programme under the committed HIV budget for 2016-2018. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) as cost per life-year saved (LYS) of 16 HIV prevention and treatment interventions over 20 years (2016-2035). We iteratively evaluated the most cost effective option (defined by an intervention and its coverage) over a rolling baseline to which the more cost effective options had already been added, thereby allowing for diminishing marginal returns to interventions. We constrained the list of interventions to those whose combined cost was affordable under the current HIV budget. Costs are presented from the government perspective, unadjusted for inflation and undiscounted, in 2016 USD.

RESULTS

The current HIV budget of about $1.6 billion per year was sufficient to pay for the expansion of condom availability, medical male circumcision, universal treatment, and infant testing at 6 weeks to maximum coverage levels, while also implementing a social and behavior change mass media campaign with a message geared at increasing testing uptake and reducing the number of sexual partners. The combined ICER of this package of services was $547/ LYS. The ICER of the next intervention that was above the affordability threshold was $872/LYS.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the South African HIV Investment Case point to an HIV cost-effectiveness threshold based on affordability under the current budget of $547-872 per life year saved, a small fraction of the country's GDP per capita of about $6,000.

Varying intervals of antiretroviral medication dispensing to improve outcomes for HIV patients (The INTERVAL Study): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Requirements for frequent dispensing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) place demands on health systems and can lead to suboptimal adherence and disengagement in care for patients due to the time and cost of frequent clinic visits. Rigorous data are needed to define optimal ART dispensing strategies and to evaluate the impact of a longer medication supply on retention and virologic suppression and determine whether this strategy lowers costs for both the patient and the health system. To date, no randomized studies have tested the benefits of 6-month dispensing of ART compared to 3-month and standard of care approaches.

METHODS

This study will be an unblinded cluster-randomized, matched controlled trial conducted among 8200 stable, HIV-infected individuals age 18 years and older on ART in Malawi and Zambia, to compare three ART dispensing intervals on the outcomes of retention in care (primary outcome), virologic suppression, and cost-effectiveness. Thirty clusters will be matched according to country, facility type, and ART cohort size and randomized to one of three study arms: standard of care, 3-month dispensing, and 6-month dispensing. Study participants will be followed, and outcomes will be measured at 12, 24, and 36 months. A subset of participants (n = 240) and providers (n = 180) will also participate in qualitative interviews to evaluate feasibility and acceptability of different ART dispensing intervals.

DISCUSSION

This study will be the first to compare 6-month and 3-month ART dispensing intervals for stable, HIV-infected individuals in Malawi and Zambia. We focus on outcomes relevant to country programs, including retention, virologic suppression, and cost-effectiveness. Results from the study will help resource-limited health systems better understand the full scope of outcomes resulting from various ART dispensing intervals and help to inform health policy decisions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03101592 . Registered on 18 March 2017. Pan African Clinical Trials, PACTR201706002336105 . Registered on 2 June 2017.

Prevalence and unmet need for diabetes care across the care continuum in a national sample of South African adults: Evidence from the SANHANES-1, 2011-2012

South Africa faces an epidemic of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs), yet national surveillance is limited due to the lack of recent data. We used data from the first comprehensive national survey on NCDs—the South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (SANHANES-1 (2011–2012))—to evaluate the prevalence of and health system response to diabetes through a diabetes care cascade. We defined diabetes as a Hemoglobin A1c equal to or above 6.5% or currently on treatment for diabetes. We constructed a diabetes care cascade by categorizing the population with diabetes into those who were unscreened, screened but undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, treated but uncontrolled, and treated and controlled. We then used multivariable logistic regression models to explore factors associated with diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes. The age-standardized prevalence of diabetes in South Africans aged 15+ was 10.1%. Prevalence rates were higher among the non-white population and among women. Among individuals with diabetes, a total of 45.4% were unscreened, 14.7% were screened but undiagnosed, 2.3% were diagnosed but untreated, 18.1% were treated but uncontrolled, and 19.4% were treated and controlled, suggesting that 80.6% of the diabetic population had unmet need for care. The diabetes care cascade revealed significant losses from lack of screening, between screening and diagnosis, and between treatment and control. These results point to significant unmet need for diabetes care in South Africa. Additionally, this analysis provides a benchmark for evaluating efforts to manage the rising burden of diabetes in South Africa.

Long-term Stability of a Compounded Suspension of Torsemide (5 mg/mL) for Oral Administration

Background

Torsemide use for congestive heart failure (CHF) has been reported, but prescription frequency is unknown. Commercially available tablet sizes in North America limit dosing precision, indicating a need to evaluate its strength and stability in suspension.

Objectives

To determine the frequency of torsemide prescriptions and to determine a beyond use date (BUD) of a compounded suspension of torsemide for oral administration stored under 2 temperature conditions for 90 days.

Animals

No animals used.

Methods

Pharmacy records were retrospectively reviewed for torsemide and furosemide prescriptions from 2008 to 2015 at 2 veterinary referral centers. After preliminary strength testing, compounded torsemide suspension (5 mg/mL) for oral administration was prepared using torsemide tablets suspended in OraPlus:OraSweet 1:1, buffered to a pH of 8.3 and stored at refrigeration (2–8°C) and room temperature (20–25°C) in 2 oz amber plastic bottles. Samples were analyzed by reverse phase high‐performance liquid chromatography (RP‐HPLC) on days 0, 14, 30, 60, and 90.

Results

Prescriptions for torsemide increased from 2008 to 2015. Analysis of the torsemide 5 mg/mL suspension for oral administration at each time point met United States Pharmacopeia (USP) requirements for torsemide content of 90–110% of label claim. The average strength at 90 days decreased to 92 ± 3% at 2–8°C and 95 ± 2% at 20–25°C. Stability testing did not detect unknown impurities.

Conclusions

Increasing torsemide use warrants availability of a validated and stable compounded formulation. Our results support the assignment of a 90‐day BUD for torsemide 5 mg/mL suspension for oral administration compounded in OraPlus:Sweet 1:1 buffered to a pH of 8.3.

Quantifying unmet need for hypertension care in South Africa through a care cascade: evidence from the SANHANES, 2011-2012

Introduction

Hypertension has become a major cause of morbidity and premature mortality in South Africa, but population-wide estimates of prevalence and access to care are scarce. Using data from the South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2011–2012), this analysis evaluates the national prevalence of hypertension and uses a care cascade to examine unmet need for care.

Methods

Hypertension was defined as blood pressure over 140/90 mm Hg or use of antihypertensive medication. We constructed a hypertension care cascade by decomposing the population with hypertension into five mutually exclusive and exhaustive subcategories: (1) unscreened and undiagnosed, (2) screened but undiagnosed, (3) diagnosed but untreated, (4) treated but uncontrolled and (5) treated and controlled. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to explore factors associated with hypertension prevalence and diagnosis.

Results

In South Africans aged 15 and above, the age standardised prevalence of hypertension was 35.1%. Among those with hypertension, 48.7% were unscreened and undiagnosed, 23.1% were screened but undiagnosed, 5.8% were diagnosed but untreated, 13.5% were treated but uncontrolled and 8.9% were controlled. The hypertension care cascade demonstrates that 49% of those with hypertension were lost at the screening stage, 50% of those who were screened never received a diagnosis, 23% of those who were diagnosed did not receive treatment and 48% of those who were treated did not reach the threshold for control. Men and older individuals had increased risks of being undiagnosed after controlling for other factors.

Conclusions

There is significant unmet need for hypertension care in South Africa; 91.1% of the hypertensive population was unscreened, undiagnosed, untreated or uncontrolled. Data from this study provide insight into where patients are lost in the hypertension care continuum and serve as a benchmark for evaluating efforts to manage the rising burden of hypertension in South Africa.

Treatment initiation among persons diagnosed with drug resistant tuberculosis in Johannesburg, South Africa

BACKGROUND

In South Africa, roughly half of the drug-resistant TB cases diagnosed are reported to have been started on treatment. We determined the proportion of persons diagnosed with rifampicin resistant (RR-) TB who initiated treatment in Johannesburg after the introduction of decentralized RR-TB care in 2011.

METHODS

We retrospectively matched adult patients diagnosed with laboratory-confirmed RR-TB in Johannesburg from 07/2011-06/2012 with records of patients initiating RR-TB treatment at one of the city's four public sector treatment sites (one centralized, three decentralized). Patients were followed from date of diagnosis until the earliest of RR-TB treatment initiation, death, or 6 months' follow-up. We report diagnostic methods and outcomes, proportions initiating treatment, and median time from diagnosis to treatment initiation.

RESULTS

594 patients were enrolled (median age 34 (IQR 29-42), 287 (48.3%) female). Diagnosis was by GenoType MTBDRplus (Hain-Life-Science) line probe assay (LPA) (281, 47.3%), Xpert MTB/RIF (Cepheid) (258, 43.4%), or phenotypic drug susceptibility testing (DST) (30, 5.1%) with 25 (4.2%) missing a diagnosis method. 320 patients (53.8%) had multi-drug resistant TB, 158 (26.6%) rifampicin resistant TB by Xpert MTB/RIF, 102 (17.2%) rifampicin mono-resistance, and 14 (2.4%) extensively drug-resistant TB. 256/594 (43.0%) patients initiated treatment, representing 70.7% of those who were referred for treatment (362/594). 338/594 patients (57.0%) did not initiate treatment, including 104 (17.5%) who died before treatment was started. The median time from sputum collection to treatment initiation was 33 days (IQR 12-52).

CONCLUSION

Despite decentralized RR-TB treatment, fewer than half the patients diagnosed in Johannesburg initiated appropriate treatment. Offering treatment at decentralized sites alone is not sufficient; improvements in linking patients diagnosed with RR-TB to effective treatment is essential.

Effect of eliminating CD4-count thresholds on HIV treatment initiation in South Africa: An empirical modeling study

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization recommends initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) regardless of CD4 count. We assessed the effect of ART eligibility on treatment uptake and simulated the impact of WHO's recommendations in South Africa.

METHODS

We conducted an empirical analysis of cohort data using a regression discontinuity design, and then used this model for policy simulation. We enrolled all patients (n = 19,279) diagnosed with HIV between August 2011 and December 2013 in the Hlabisa HIV Treatment and Care Programme in rural South Africa. Patients were ART-eligible with CD4<350 cells/mm3 or Stage III/IV illness. We estimated: (1) distribution of first CD4 counts in 2013; (2) probability of initiating ART ≤6 months of HIV diagnosis under existing criteria at each CD4 count; (3) probability of initiating ART by CD4 count if thresholds were eliminated; and (4) number of expected new initiators if South Africa eliminates thresholds.

FINDINGS

In 2013, 38.9% of patients diagnosed had a CD4 count ≥500. 8.0% of these patients initiated even without eligible CD4 counts. If CD4 criteria were eliminated, we project that an additional 19.2% of patients with CD4 ≥500 would initiate ART; 72.8% would not initiate ART despite being eligible. Eliminating CD4 criteria would increase the number starting ART by 26.7%. If these numbers hold nationally, this would represent an additional 164,000 initiators per year, a 5.2% increase in patients receiving ART and 5.3% increase in programme costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Removing CD4 criteria alone will modestly increase timely uptake of ART. However, our results suggest the majority of newly-eligible patients will not initiate. Improved testing, linkage, and initiation procedures are needed to achieve 90-90-90 targets.

Simplified clinical algorithm for identifying patients eligible for immediate initiation of antiretroviral therapy for HIV (SLATE): protocol for a randomised evaluation

INTRODUCTION

African countries are rapidly adopting guidelines to offer antiretroviral therapy (ART) to all HIV-infected individuals, regardless of CD4 count. For this policy of 'treat all' to succeed, millions of new patients must be initiated on ART as efficiently as possible. Studies have documented high losses of treatment-eligible patients from care before they receive their first dose of antiretrovirals (ARVs), due in part to a cumbersome, resource-intensive process for treatment initiation, requiring multiple clinic visits over a several-week period.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Simplified Algorithm for Treatment Eligibility (SLATE) study is an individually randomised evaluation of a simplified clinical algorithm for clinicians to reliably determine a patient's eligibility for immediate ART initiation without waiting for laboratory results or additional clinic visits. SLATE will enrol and randomise (1:1) 960 adult, HIV-positive patients who present for HIV testing or care and are not yet on ART in South Africa and Kenya. Patients randomised to the standard arm will receive routine, standard of care ART initiation from clinic staff. Patients randomised to the intervention arm will be administered a symptom report, medical history, brief physical exam and readiness assessment. Patients who have positive (satisfactory) results for all four components of SLATE will be dispensed ARVs immediately, at the same clinic visit. Patients who have any negative results will be referred for further clinical investigation, counselling, tests or other services prior to being dispensed ARVs. After the initial visit, follow-up will be by passive medical record review. The primary outcomes will be ART initiation ≤28 days and retention in care 8 months after study enrolment.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval has been provided by the Boston University Institutional Review Board, the University of the Witwatersrand Human Research Ethics Committee (Medical) and the KEMRI Scientific and Ethics Review Unit. Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and made widely available through presentations and briefing documents.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT02891135.

A new cascade of HIV care for the era of "treat all"

Matthew Fox and Sydney Rosen discuss a cascade of HIV care adapted to WHO-recommended antiretroviral therapy irrespective of CD4 cell count.

Changes in elevated cholesterol in the era of tenofovir in South Africa: risk factors, clinical management and outcomes

OBJECTIVES

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been associated with unfavourable lipid profile changes and increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). With a growing population on ART in South Africa, there has been concern about the increase in noncommunicable diseases such as CVD. We determined risk factors associated with increased total cholesterol (TC) in a large cohort on ART and describe the clinical management thereof.

METHODS

We conducted an observational cohort study of ART-naïve adults initiating standard first-line ART in a large urban clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. TC was measured annually for most patients. A proportional hazards regression model was used to determine risk factors associated with incident high TC (≥ 6 mmol/L).

RESULTS

Significant risk factors included initial regimen non-tenofovir vs. tenofovir [hazard ratio (HR) 1.54; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-2.08], age ≥40 vs. <30 years (HR 3.22; 95% CI 2.07-4.99), body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m² (HR 1.65; 95% CI 1.18-2.31) and BMI 25-29.9 kg/m² (HR 1.70; 95% CI 1.30-2.23) vs. 18-24.9 kg/m² , and baseline CD4 count < 50 cells/μL (HR 1.55; 95% CI 1.10-2.20) and 50-99 cells/μL (HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.00-1.97) vs. > 200 cells/μL. Two-thirds of patients with high TC were given cholesterol-lowering drugs, after repeat TC measurements about 12 months apart, while 31.8% were likely to have received dietary counselling only.

CONCLUSIONS

Older age, higher BMI, lower CD4 count and a non-tenofovir regimen were risk factors for incident elevated TC. Current guidelines do not indicate regular cholesterol testing at ART clinic visits, which are the main exposure to regular clinical monitoring for most HIV-positive individuals. If regular cholesterol monitoring is conducted, improvements can be made to identify and treat patients sooner.

Hereditary Basis of Caries Resistance in Rats

Lines of rats susceptible and resistant to dental caries were produced through 25 and 19 generations of breeding, respectively. Differences in mean caries time between the two lines were found to be as great as more than 500 days in some late generations. Heritability estimates yielded values of 0.40 and 0.62.

Early Outcomes Of Decentralized Care for Rifampicin-Resistant Tuberculosis in Johannesburg, South Africa: An Observational Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

We describe baseline characteristics, time to treatment initiation and interim patient outcomes at a decentralized, outpatient treatment site for rifampicin-resistant TB (RR-TB).

METHODS

Prospective observational cohort study of RR-TB patients from March 2013 until December 2014. Study subjects were followed until completion of the intensive phase of treatment (6 months), transfer out, or a final outcome (loss from treatment (LFT) or death).

RESULTS

214 patients with RR-TB were enrolled in the study. Xpert MTB/RIF was the diagnostic test of rifampicin resistance for 87% (n = 186), followed by direct PCR on AFB positive specimen in 14 (7%) and indirect PCR on cultured isolate in 5 (2%). Median time between sputum testing and treatment initiation was 10 days (IQR 6-21). Interim outcomes were available in 148 patients of whom 78% (n = 115) were still on treatment, 9% (n = 13) had died, and 14% (n = 20) were LFT. Amongst 131 patients with culture positive pulmonary TB, 85 (64.9%) were culture negative at 6 months, 12 were still sputum culture positive (9.2%) and 34 had no culture documented or contaminated culture (26%). Patients who initiated as outpatients within 1 week of sputum collection for diagnosis of RR-TB had a significantly lower incidence of LFT (IRR 0.30, 95% CI: 0.09-0.98). HIV co-infection occurred in 178 patients (83%) with a median CD4 count 88 cells/ml3 (IQR 27-218).

CONCLUSIONS

Access to decentralized treatment coupled with the rapid diagnosis of RR-TB has resulted in short time to treatment initiation. Despite the lack of treatment delays, early treatment outcomes remain poor with high rates of death and loss from care.

Economic evaluation of a shortened standardised treatment regimen of antituberculosis drugs for patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (STREAM): study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) poses a serious financial challenge to health systems and patients. The current treatment for patients with MDR-TB takes up to 24 months to complete. Evidence for a shorter regimen which differs from the standard WHO recommended MDR-TB regimen and typically lasts between 9 and 12 months has been reported from Bangladesh. This evaluation aims to assess the economic impact of a shortened regimen on patients and health systems. This evaluation is innovative as it combines patient and health system costs, as well as operational modelling in assessing the impact.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

An economic evaluation nested in a clinical trial with 2 arms will be performed at 4 facilities. The primary outcome measure is incremental cost to the health system of the study regimen compared with the control regimen. Secondary outcome measures are mean incremental costs incurred by patients by treatment outcome; patient costs by category (direct medical costs, transport, food and accommodation costs, and cost of guardians/accompanying persons and lost time); health systems cost by category and drugs; and costs related to serious adverse events.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been evaluated and approved by the Ethics Advisory Group of the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease; South African Medical Research Ethics Committee; Wits Health Consortium Protocol Review Committee; University of the Witwatersrand Human Research Ethics Committee; University of Kwazulu-Natal Biomedical Research Ethics Committee; St Peter TB Specialized Hospital Ethical Review Committee; AHRI-ALERT Ethical Review Committee, and all participants will provide written informed consent. The results of the economic evaluation will be published in a peer-reviewed journal.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN78372190.