Wheat yield response to input and socioeconomic factors under changing climate: Evidence from rainfed environments of Pakistan

More than three-quarters of the world's total cultivated land is under rainfed farming, producing almost 70% of total food. Most food production comes from developing and least favored nations. Pakistan, a developing country with an agro-based economy, is facing severe threats from climate change. Rainfed agriculture, especially wheat farming, is highly susceptible due to its heavy dependency on precipitation, one of the most important climatic parameters. Wheat is the main food crop, as well as a major source of calorific intake, for millions of people in Pakistan. This study aims to quantify the impacts of climate variability on mean yield levels and yield variability of wheat crop in the rainfed zone of Pakistan. Multistage random sampling technique is used for primary data collection from 400 rainfed wheat farmers during the 2016-17 crop season. The study uses primary data on crop input-output, management, socioeconomic, institutional, and historical climatic data (1980-2017). The data are analyzed employing the Just and Pope (J-P) stochastic production function approach with linear and non-linear functional forms. The results reveal that temperature rise negatively affects observed wheat mean yields, while cumulative precipitation positively affected it. Further, input market access, seed rate, and cumulative precipitation also cause variability in yield levels, leading to yield instability. Further, farm elevation influences wheat mean yield positively while input market access influences it negatively. The findings of the study have important implications for climate resilient wheat farming. Timely and tailor-made adaptations need to be undertaken in the rainfed wheat farming systems of Pakistan. Creating awareness among farmers about the optimal use of agronomic inputs under changing climatic conditions could be an effective adaptation strategy that improves yields and copes with yield instability.

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Agriculture Green Total Factor Productivity in China, 1998-2016: Based on More Sophisticated Calculations of Carbon Emissions

Environmental costs should be taken into account when measuring the achievements of China's agricultural development, since the long-term extensive development of agriculture has caused huge environmental pollution. This study took agricultural carbon emissions as an undesired output to estimate the agricultural development efficiency in 31 provinces of China from 1998 to 2016, based on the green total factor productivity, as assessed by the slacks-based measure directional distance function and constructing the global Malmquist-Luenberger index. We measured agricultural carbon emissions in terms of five aspects: agricultural materials, rice planting, soil, livestock and poultry farming, and straw burning, and then compared the green total factor productivity index and the total factor productivity index. The study came to the following conclusions: (1) the green technology efficiency change was smaller than the technology efficiency change at first, but the gap between them is narrowing with time, such that the former is now larger than the latter; (2) the green technology efficiency was in a declining state and the green technology progress was increasing, promoting the green total factor productivity growth, from 1998 to 2016; and (3) China's agricultural green total factor productivity increased by 4.2% annually in the east, 3.4% annually in the central region, and 2.5% annually in the west.

Bacteria, Fungi and Archaea Domains in Rhizospheric Soil and Their Effects in Enhancing Agricultural Productivity

The persistent and undiscriminating application of chemicals as means to improve crop growth, development and yields for several years has become problematic to agricultural sustainability because of the adverse effects these chemicals have on the produce, consumers and beneficial microbes in the ecosystem. Therefore, for agricultural productivity to be sustained there are needs for better and suitable preferences which would be friendly to the ecosystem. The use of microbial metabolites has become an attractive and more feasible preference because they are versatile, degradable and ecofriendly, unlike chemicals. In order to achieve this aim, it is then imperative to explore microbes that are very close to the root of a plant, especially where they are more concentrated and have efficient activities called the rhizosphere. Extensive varieties of bacteria, archaea, fungi and other microbes are found inhabiting the rhizosphere with various interactions with the plant host. Therefore, this review explores various beneficial microbes such as bacteria, fungi and archaea and their roles in the environment in terms of acquisition of nutrients for plants for the purposes of plant growth and health. It also discusses the effect of root exudate on the rhizosphere microbiome and compares the three domains at molecular levels.

Recent changes in county-level maize production in the United States: Spatial-temporal patterns, climatic drivers and the implications for crop modelling

Despite the fact that it is the total crop production that shapes future food supply rather than one of its single component, previous studies have mainly focused on the changes in crop yield. It is possible that recent gains in crop production are mainly due to improvement of yield rather than growth of harvest area. However, it remains unclear about the geographical patterns of their relative contributions at fine scales and the possible mechanisms. Analysis of US maize production shows that maize production has increased significantly at a rate of 2.1%/year during 1980-2010. Although yield is the dominant factor contributing to production growth for the country as a whole, the importance of harvest area has become more evident with time. In 56% of US's maize growing counties, harvest area has also contributed more than yield to production changes. High spatial correlation between the change rates of harvest area and production is observed (R = 0.96), while a weak relation (R = 0.21) is found between the spatial patterns of yield and production. This suggests that harvest area has exerted the dominant role in modulating the spatial distribution pattern of maize production changes. Further analysis suggests that yield and harvest area respond differently to climate variability, which has great implications for adaptation strategies. Comparing 11 state-of-the-art crop model simulations against census data reveals large bias in the simulated spatial patterns of maize production. Nevertheless, such bias can be reduced substantially by incorporating the observed dynamics of harvest area, pointing to a potential pathway for future model improvement. This study highlights the importance of accounting for harvest area dynamics in assessing agricultural production empirically or with crop models.

Occupation and risk of female breast cancer: A case-control study in Morocco

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer is the most frequent cancer among Moroccan women. Environmental and occupational factors may play a role in breast cancer etiology. This study aimed to investigate the association between occupation, industry, and breast cancer risk among Moroccan women.

METHODS

A total of 300 breast cancer cases and 300 controls (matched by age and area of residence) were included in this study. Full occupational history was collected, with a detailed description of each job held for at least 6 months. Occupations were coded according to the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO 08) and the Moroccan Analytical Classification of Professions (2001). Industries were coded according to the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (2008). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for potential confounders were estimated by using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

An overall decreased risk of breast cancer was observed among women doing only household work (OR = 0.32; 95% CI = 0.18-0.55). An increased risk of breast cancer was observed among women in agricultural occupations, particularly those employed as agricultural laborers (ISCO 08 code: 921; OR = 2.91; 95% CI = 1.51-5.60) and the risk increased with duration of employment (P trend = .01). Analyses by industry corroborated these findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that occupational exposures may be associated with increased risk of breast cancer among female agricultural workers in this population. Further investigations, with advanced methods of occupational exposure assessment, are warranted to clarify the role of chemicals involved in this high-risk occupation and to suggest preventive actions and screening.

De-climatizing food security: Lessons from climate change micro-simulations in Peru

This paper brings advances in weather data collection and modeling, and developments in socioeconomic climate microsimulations to bear on the analysis of the implications of climate change (CC) in the design of public policies to combat food insecurity. It uses new downscaled predictions of future climate in 2050, derived from three Earth System Models calibrated with a new historical weather station dataset for Peru. This climate data is used in a three-stage socioeconomic microsimulation model that includes climate risk, and deals with the endogeneity of incomes and simultaneity of expected food consumption and its variability. We estimate the impact of CC on agricultural yields, and find results consistent and fully bounded within what the global simulations literature has found, with yields falling up to 13% in some regions. However, we show that these drops (and increases) in yields translate to much smaller changes in food consumption, and also surprisingly, to very minor impacts on vulnerability to food insecurity. The document explores what explains this surprising result, showing that in addition to characteristics that are specific to Peru, there are household and market mediating mechanisms that are available in all countries, which explain how changes in yields, and corresponding farm incomes have a reduced impact in vulnerability to food insecurity. Finally, in light of these findings, we explore which policies might have greater impact in reducing food insecurity in contexts of hunger prevalence.

Gender effects of agricultural cropping work and nutrition status in Tanzania

Although agriculture is an important source of food and income for food expenditures, women's involvement in the agricultural cropping production process could increase their work load and reduce their BMI. Using three waves of the Tanzania National Panel Survey, we investigate the extent to which time spent in agricultural crop production affects women and men's nutritional status among non-overweight individuals (age 20-65). We also test whether the impact of agricultural cropping work on nutritional status is modified by access to agricultural equipment, and whether gender differences exist. The study finds that time spent in agricultural cropping work is negatively associated with BMI for non-overweight individuals, albeit of small magnitude, and this finding is consistent across different crop production processes. This suggests that agricultural interventions should not ignore the implications of increasing work intensities on nutrition. While increased agricultural production could improve nutritional status by increasing agricultural income and food, the gains in nutritional status could be offset by an increase in work effort of doing agricultural work. Our results suggest that it is possible that access to equipment reduced effort for one production activity, but increased work for other activities in the production process, such as in harvesting. Furthermore, we find that the BMI of women in households with a hand powered sprayer is positively related to time spent in weeding, fertilizing, and non-harvest activities, while it is negatively correlated for men. It is possible that access to a hand powered sprayer may have helped reduce women's work, for example, in weeding, while this was not the case for men's work such as in ridging and fertilizing. Further disaggregation of agricultural activities in the dataset would have been helpful to provide more insights on the gender roles.

A Case-Control Study of Environmental and Occupational Risks of Leptospirosis in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has one of the highest incidences of human leptospirosis worldwide. Outbreaks of this zoonotic infection are related to the monsoons and flooding. The study investigates risk factors associated with environmental, animal and occupational exposure while acknowledging the potential bias due to hanta viral infections in the study samples. Data were obtained from structured interviews with 483 patients (276 cases and 207 controls). Risk exposures were studied for the entire population and for two stratified occupational groups: non-paddy workers and paddy workers. A higher odds ratio (OR) of leptospirosis transmission for paddy workers was observed compared to non-paddy workers (OR 1.905, 95% CI 1.274-2.856). Rat exposure was not associated with a significant higher risk for any of the groups. Instead, cattle and household animals seemed to be important for transmission of leptospirosis to humans, especially among non-paddy workers (OR 10.655, 95% CI 1.213-93.582). Leptospirosis in paddy workers was associated with environmental factors linked to contamination and wetness in paddy fields. Interestingly, abandoned paddy fields were found to have a protective effect against transmission to paddy workers (OR 0.421, 95% CI 0.237-0.748). Keeping animals on these dryer fields may act as a boundary for contamination of paddy fields with infectious animal urine. This finding may be considered as a public health intervention targeting leptospirosis among paddy workers.

Assessment of Agricultural Carbon Emissions and Their Spatiotemporal Changes in China, 1997-2016

Despite achieving remarkable development, China’s agricultural economy has been under severe environmental pressure. Based on previous studies, the present study further considers the sources of agricultural carbon emissions in depth, estimates China’s agricultural carbon emissions from 1997 to 2016, and analyzes the agricultural pollution faced by China and its provinces. The study estimates the amount and intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in China from five carbon sources—agricultural materials, rice planting, soil N₂O, livestock and poultry farming, and straw burning—and analyzes their spatial and temporal characteristics. The following results were obtained: (1) between 1997 and 2016, the amount of agricultural carbon emissions in China generally increased, while the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions decreased; (2) in the same period, the amount of carbon emissions from each category of carbon source generally increased, with the exception of rice planting; however, the amount of emissions fluctuated; (3) the amount and intensity of carbon emissions varied greatly among provinces; (4) the emissions from different categories of carbon source showed different concentration trends and agglomeration forms; (5) China’s agricultural carbon emissions showed obvious spatial correlation, which overall was high–high agglomeration; however, its carbon emissions gradually weakened, and the spatial agglomeration of agricultural carbon emissions in each province changed between 1997 and 2016.

Assessment of Agricultural Carbon Emissions and Their Spatiotemporal Changes in China, 1997-2016

Despite achieving remarkable development, China's agricultural economy has been under severe environmental pressure. Based on previous studies, the present study further considers the sources of agricultural carbon emissions in depth, estimates China's agricultural carbon emissions from 1997 to 2016, and analyzes the agricultural pollution faced by China and its provinces. The study estimates the amount and intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in China from five carbon sources-agricultural materials, rice planting, soil N₂O, livestock and poultry farming, and straw burning-and analyzes their spatial and temporal characteristics. The following results were obtained: (1) between 1997 and 2016, the amount of agricultural carbon emissions in China generally increased, while the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions decreased; (2) in the same period, the amount of carbon emissions from each category of carbon source generally increased, with the exception of rice planting; however, the amount of emissions fluctuated; (3) the amount and intensity of carbon emissions varied greatly among provinces; (4) the emissions from different categories of carbon source showed different concentration trends and agglomeration forms; (5) China's agricultural carbon emissions showed obvious spatial correlation, which overall was high-high agglomeration; however, its carbon emissions gradually weakened, and the spatial agglomeration of agricultural carbon emissions in each province changed between 1997 and 2016.

Profit Analysis of Papaya Crops under Greenhouses as an Alternative to Traditional Intensive Horticulture in Southeast Spain

The high-yield agricultural model in Almería is based on eight different crops. Having led fruit and vegetable exports in Spain for more than 50 years, a decrease in melon and watermelon growing areas in Almería caused a change in supply that affected the model's profit. Papaya cultivation could reactivate the profit of the agricultural model in Almería and also improve the available product range. The papaya crop needs greenhouse infrastructures high enough to contain the growth and size of the plants during a cycle crop, which is possible in most of the greenhouses of the Horticultural production model of Almería. The papaya harvests obtained in the region meet the quality requirements demanded by European markets. Furthermore, yields obtained are equal or higher than yields obtained by other producing countries. This crop improves profit compared with the profit obtained from the rotation of other horticultural crops that have been traditionally grown in the region.

Factors shaping local people's perception of ecosystem services in the Atacora Chain of Mountains, a biodiversity hotspot in northern Benin

BACKGROUND

Atacora Chain of Mountains (ACM) is the Benin part of a range of mountains lying from Benin to Ghana through Togo. It provides goods and services to people and is dominated by rural communities with heavy reliance on natural resources. The ACM may be threatened by the increasing resource needs and the possible shift in people's livelihood priorities brought about by challenges and opportunities ushered in by modernization. This study sought to understand local people's perception of the services derived from the ACM and the socio-demographic factors (age, gender, and level of urbanization of the place people live in) accounting for these perceptions.

METHODS

Face to face interviews with 12 focus groups in 3 municipalities were carried out to obtain a list of ecosystem services cited by the participants. At the individual level, 144 people (men, women, young, adult, and old people from either rural or urbanized areas) equally distributed in the 3 municipalities were asked whether they acknowledge each of the services cited by the focus groups. Logistic regressions were then used with generalized linear models (GLM) function in R to analyze the relationships between the probability of acknowledgement of a service by the respondents and their socio-demographic characteristics.

RESULTS

Local people perceived the ACM as a provider of provisioning, supporting, and cultural services but cited more provisioning services than the others. The factors considered in this study (gender, location, and age) were all predictors of ecosystem services perception in the ACM. Location influenced people's perception of provisioning and supporting services such that respondents from rural municipalities were more likely to perceive provisioning and supporting services. This is because people in rural areas have a heavier reliance on natural resources. Gender was associated with respondents' perception of supporting, provisioning, and cultural services. Women were more likely to perceive provisioning services and less likely supporting and cultural services. People in each category of gender have a perception of ES linked to their livelihood activities. Young people were less likely to perceive supporting services than adults and old people due to their less involvement in farming activities.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that gender, location, and age predict local people's perception of ecosystem services in the ACM and livelihood orientation is determinant. The omission of regulation and many of the supporting services questions the future of this mountain chain if its exploitation continues without any awareness and conservation measures.

Comparison of epidemiology and injury profile between vulnerable road users and motor vehicle occupants in road traffic fatalities

Objective: Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a major global health issue causing a global burden of mortality and morbidity. Half of all fatalities on the world's roads are vulnerable road users (VRUs). The targeted intervention strategies based on fatality analysis focusing on VRUs can effectively contribute to reducing RTIs. This study aimed to compare VRUs and motor vehicle occupants (MVOs) in terms of epidemiology and injury profile. Methods: We utilized a nationwide, prospective database of RTI-related mortality cases for patients who visited 23 emergency departments between January 2011 and December 2015. All fatalities due to RTIs in the prehospital phase or in-hospital were eligible, excluding patients with unknown mode of transport and those admitted to general wards. The primary and secondary outcomes were fracture injuries and visceral injuries diagnosed using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10). We compared fracture injuries between VRUs and MVOs using Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2- and 2+ classification. Results: Among a total 3,694 road traffic fatalities (RTFs), 43.3% were pedestrians, followed by MVOs (27.0%), motorcyclists (18.9), bicyclists (6.6%), and agricultural vehicle users (4.2%). The elderly (>60 years old) accounted for 54.9% of VRU fatalities. RTFs occurred most frequently in the autumn and the VRU group and the MVO group showed significant differences in weekly and diurnal variation in RTFs. The injury severities (AIS 2+) of the head, neck, and thorax were significantly different between the 2 groups (P < 0.05). Head (32.1%) and intracranial (58.6%) injuries were the most common fracture and visceral injury sites for RTFs, followed by the thorax and intrathoracic organs (25.3 and 28.8%, respectively). Conclusions: Elderly pedestrians should be targeted for decreases in RTFs, and road traffic safety interventions for VRUs should be made based on the analysis of temporal epidemiology and injury profiles of RTFs.

Lifetime Pesticide Use and Antinuclear Antibodies in Male Farmers From the Agricultural Health Study

Farming and pesticide use have been associated with systemic autoimmune diseases, and while certain organochlorine insecticides and other pesticides are suspected to influence risk, the role of specific pesticides in the development of systemic autoimmunity is not known. We measured serum antinuclear autoantibodies (ANA) by immunofluorescence on Hep-2 cells in 668 male farmers in the study of Biomarkers of Exposure and Effect in Agriculture (BEEA; 2010-2013), an Agricultural Health Study (AHS) subcohort. We examined ANA in relation to lifetime use of 46 pesticides first reported at AHS enrollment (1993-1997) and updated at intervals through BEEA enrollment. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated after adjusting for age, state, education, season of blood draw, current pesticide use, and correlated pesticides. Having ANA antibodies (3 or 4+ intensity at a 1:80 dilution, 21% of study participants) was associated with a reported history of seeking medical care due to exposure to pesticides (OR 2.15; 95%CI 1.17, 3.95), use of the fumigant methyl bromide (OR 3.16; 95%CI 1.05, 9.5), and use of petroleum oil/distillates (OR 1.50; 95%CI 1.00, 2.25). Using a higher threshold (3 or 4+ at a 1:160 dilution, 9%) ANA positivity was associated with the carbamate insecticide aldicarb (OR 4.82; 95%CI 1.33, 17.5) and greater combined use of four cyclodiene organochlorine insecticides (top tertile of intensity-weighted lifetime days vs. no use; OR T3 3.20; 95%CI 1.10, 9.27). By contrast, greater use of non-cyclodiene organochlorine insecticides was inversely associated with ANA (1:80 dilution 3 or 4+, OR T3 0.24; 95%CI 0.08, 0.72). Specific autoantibodies (to extractable nuclear antigens and anti-dsDNA), measured on those with ANA detected at the 1:80 dilution 3 or 4+, were seen in 15 individuals (2%), and were associated with use of two or more cyclodiene organochlorine insecticides and several other pesticides (e.g., carbofuran, ethylene dibromide). These findings suggest that specific pesticide exposures may have long-term effects on ANA prevalence and support the hypothesis that certain organochlorine insecticides may increase the risk of developing systemic autoimmunity.

"More crop per drop": Exploring India's cereal water use since 2005

India has the highest national freshwater demand globally and 91% of India's freshwater is used in the agriculture sector. Cereals account for over 50% of the dietary water footprint in India and represent a potential opportunity for reducing water use in Indian agriculture. This study combines governmental production and irrigation statistics with crop distribution maps to examine trends in annual water use for cereal production in India between 2005 and 2014. A new online water assessment tool, Cool Farm Tool Water (CFTW), was used to calculate water use and derive seasonal state-level blue and green water footprints for rice, wheat, sorghum, millet and maize. The analysis indicates that India achieved 26.4% increased total cereal production between 2005 and 2014 without additional water or land use. Cereal water footprints have declined due to higher yields for most crops and slightly lower rates of evapotranspiration. There has also been a shift in the area under production away from the Kharif (monsoon) towards the Rabi (dry) season in which total water footprints for all cereals except rice are substantially lower (-33.4% to -45.0% compared to Kharif), but show a significantly higher dependency on ground and surface water. The value of this study is two-fold. First, it provides a full assessment of production trends for the five major cereals in India for each year from 2005 to 2014 and links it to water use. Secondly, it uses updated seasonal water footprints, which demonstrate the potential for changes in cereal production practices to contribute to improved efficiency of water use in India. Future pressures on scarce water resources may encourage transition to cereals with lower irrigation dependency, in particular maize, but also sorghum and millet. In addition, increased emphasis on improving millet and sorghum yields would be of benefit to secure cereal production and reduce its overall water footprint.

Work safety interventions and threat complexity - A formative investigation into why farmers do not act safely

INTRODUCTION

Fear appeals are a common tactic used in work safety interventions to motivate farmers to adopt safer behaviours. They begin by introducing a threat, followed by information on how to remove the threat. However, fear appeals tend to be ineffective when developed without a firm grasp of the cognitive processes underlying behavioural change. Although previous research on farm safety interventions have investigated fear appeals, they have focused on very narrow threats and behaviours, such as tractor or cow safety, while others have studied the threats but not the cognitive processing. Consequently, not enough is known about the range of threats that evoke fear, how farmers behave when under threat, or their general cognitive beliefs regarding self-efficacy, response cost and response efficacy. In In this study, 23 Swedish Farmers were interviewed and participated in a work safety intervention to identify the range of threats farmers perceive, and actions taken to remove those threats.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The extended parallel processing model was used to gain insights into how farmers cognitively processed threats and their subsequent behaviour. Interestingly, it was found that farmers were more fearful of work safety threats related to family members and employees-yet the actions they took to reduce threats were mostly personal in nature. To help explain this finding, a typology of threat complexity was developed by the authors.

RESULTS

It was found that simple, common, and direct threats to safety tended to lead to adaptive, threat-reducing behaviours, whereas complex, general, or indirect threats promoted more maladaptive behaviours that reduced fear, but not the threats.

Survey in Nurseries and Irrigation Water Reservoirs as Sources of Oomycetes Found in Avocado Orchards in the Canary Islands

Nursery stocks and irrigation water are important sources of Phytophthora spp. In this study, 20 irrigation water reservoirs and 10 avocado nurseries were surveyed in the Canary Islands between 2013 and 2015 to investigate their potential role in disseminating pathogenic species in avocado orchards. Phytophthora multivora was isolated from one of the irrigation reservoirs, whereas, in two surveys conducted in nurseries, Phytophthora cinnamomi, the primary pathogen in avocado, was detected in addition to other Phytophthora species (P. lacustris, P. multivora, P. nicotianae, P. niederhauserii, and P. palmivora) and Phytopythium vexans. The species recovered from nurseries were isolated mostly from propagated plants but also from nursery irrigation water, soil used for substrate preparation, and soil samples collected in orchards that supply seeds for seedling propagation. Species recovered from nurseries correlated with those found in avocado orchards in a previous study, except for P. lacustris, suggesting that nurseries could be involved in their dissemination in avocado orchards. The improved sanitary status of nurseries resulted in reduced incidence in the second survey, indicating the importance of nursery monitoring to reduce infestations.

A semi-automated tool for identifying agricultural roadway crashes in crash narratives

Objective: Crash reports contain precoded structured data fields and a crash narrative that can be a source of rich information not included in the structured data. The narrative can be useful for identifying vulnerable roadway users, such as agricultural workers. However, using the narratives often requires manual reviews that are time consuming and costly. The objective of this research was to develop a simple and relatively inexpensive, semi-automated tool for screening crash narratives and expediting the process of identifying crashes with specific characteristics, such as agricultural crashes. Methods: Crash records for Louisiana from 2010 to 2015 were obtained from the Louisiana Department of Transportation (LaDOTD). Records with narratives were extracted and stratified by vehicle type. The majority of analyses focused on a vehicle type of farm equipment (Type T). Two keyword lists, an inclusion list and an exclusion list, were created based on the published literature, subject-matter experts, and findings from a pilot project. Next, a semi-automated tool was developed in Microsoft Excel to identify agricultural crashes. Lastly, the tool's performance was assessed using a gold standard set of agricultural narratives identified through manual review. Results: The tool reduced the search space (e.g., number of narratives that need manual review) for narratives requiring manual review from 6.7 to 59.4% depending on the research question. Sensitivity was high, with 96.1% of agricultural crash narratives being correctly classified. Of the gold standard agricultural narratives, 58.3% included an equipment keyword and 72.8% included a farm equipment brand. Conclusion: This article provides information on how crash narratives can supplement structured crash data. It also provides an easy-to-implement method to facilitate incorporating narratives into safety research along with keyword lists for identifying agricultural crashes.

Combined life cycle assessment and artificial intelligence for prediction of output energy and environmental impacts of sugarcane production

This study aims to employ two artificial intelligence (AI) methods, namely, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model, for predicting life cycle environmental impacts and output energy of sugarcane production in planted or ratoon farms. The study is performed in Imam Khomeini Sugarcane Agro-Industrial Company (IKSAIC) in Khuzestan province of Iran. Based on the cradle to grave approach, life cycle assessment (LCA) is employed to evaluate environmental impacts and study environmental impact categories of sugarcane production. Results of this study show that the consumed and output energies of sugarcane production are in average 172,856.14 MJ ha^-1, 120,000 MJ ha^-1 in planted farms and 122,801.15 MJ ha^-1, 98,850 MJ ha^-1 in ratoon farms, respectively. Results show that, in sugarcane production, electricity, machinery, biocides and sugarcane stem cuttings have the largest impact on the indices in planted farms. However, in ratoon farms, electricity, machinery, biocides and nitrogen fertilizers have the largest share in increasing the indices. ANN model with 9-10-5-11 and 7-9-6-11 structures are the best topologies for predicting environmental impacts and output energy of sugarcane production in planted and ratoon farms, respectively. Results from ANN models indicated that the coefficient of determination (R²) varies from 0.923 to 0.986 in planted farms and 0.942 to 0.982 in ratoon farms in training stage for environmental impacts and outpt energy. Results from ANFIS model, which is developed based on a hybrid learning algorithm, showed that, for prediction of environmental impacts, R² varies from 0.912 to 0.978 and 0.986 to 0.999 in plant and ratoon farms, respectively, and for prediction of output energy, R² varies from 0.944 and 0.996 in planted and ratoon farms. Results indicate that ANFIS model is a useful tool for prediction of environmental impacts and output energy of sugarcane production in planted and ratoon farms.

How low can you go? Estimating impacts of reduced pesticide use

Recent research has suggested that a high proportion of farms can dramatically reduce pesticide applications without reducing crop yields or farm profits. Yet this research has made estimation choices that may systematically bias downwards estimates of the productivity and profitability of pesticides. Fifty years of agricultural economics research provides lessons about how to avoid pitfalls in estimating pesticide productivity. Carefully executed econometric studies have found evidence of overuse, underuse, and near-optimal use of pesticides in different cropping systems. There are now standard methods to test and correct for sources of biases (either upward or downward) in estimates of pesticide productivity. Ignoring these lessons and methods can seriously bias estimates of the potential for reducing pesticide use at little or no economic cost. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

Prostate cancer risk by occupation in the Occupational Disease Surveillance System (ODSS) in Ontario, Canada

INTRODUCTION

Previous Canadian epidemiologic studies have identified associations between occupations and prostate cancer risk, though evidence is limited. However, there are no well-established preventable risk factors for prostate cancer, which warrants the need for further investigation into occupational factors to strengthen existing evidence. This study uses occupation and prostate cancer information from a large surveillance cohort in Ontario that linked workers' compensation claim data to administrative health databases.

METHODS

Occupations were examined using the Occupational Disease Surveillance System (ODSS). ODSS included 1 231 177 male workers for the 1983 to 2015 period, whose records were linked to the Ontario Cancer Registry (OCR) in order to identify and follow up on prostate cancer diagnoses. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate age-adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CI to estimate the risk of prostate cancer by occupation group.

RESULTS

A total of 34 997 prostate cancer cases were diagnosed among workers in ODSS. Overall, elevated prostate cancer risk was observed for men employed in management/ administration (HR 2.17, 95% CI = 1.98-2.38), teaching (HR 1.99, 95% CI = 1.79-2.21), transportation (HR 1.20, 95% CI = 1.16-1.24), construction (HR 1.09, 95% CI = 1.06-1.12), firefighting (HR 1.62, 95% CI = 1.47-1.78), and police work (HR 1.20, 95% CI = 1.10-1.32). Inconsistent findings were observed for clerical and farming occupations.

CONCLUSION

Associations observed in white collar, construction, transportation, and protective services occupations were consistent with previous Canadian studies. Findings emphasize the need to assess job-specific exposures, sedentary behaviour, psychological stress, and shift work. Understanding specific occupational risk factors can lead to better understanding of prostate cancer etiology and improve prevention strategies.

The impact of soil erosion on internal migration in China

The impact of environmental change on internal migration has received wide attention in recent years. Mass internal migration has been a significant economic and social phenomenon in China, and soil erosion is a major environmental problem that impacts sustainable socioeconomic development. This study aims to identify the impact of soil erosion on internal migration in China at the county level based on gravity model by analyzing related data, such as the sixth national population census data and the soil and water conservation survey data. The results of spatial overlay could not identify an obvious relationship between soil erosion and net outmigration in China. The traditional gravity model of migration is modified to analyze the impact of soil erosion on net outmigration while other variables are controlled. The results indicate that only serious soil erosion increases the possibility of outmigration and that the impact is considerably higher in agricultural counties than in non-agricultural counties. In general, the impact of soil erosion on internal migration is far less than the impact of socioeconomic factors.

[Effects of different land use patterns on soil potassium distribution in Chengdu Plain, China]

To explore the effects of land use change on the potassium in soil profile under the background of rapid urbanization, we collected data of 187 soil profiles from four typical land use patterns (rice-wheat, rice-vegetable, rice-oil and garden) in Chengdu Plain. The contents of available potassium (AP), slow-acting potassium (SP), mineral potassium (MP), and total potassium (TP) in soil profile under different land use patterns and their relationships were analyzed. Our results showed that compared with the traditional rotation (rice-wheat, rice-oil), soil AP and SP contents significantly varied among different land use patterns. Rice-vegetable rotation increased the contents of AP and SP in the surface soil, while garden land increased the consumption of AP and SP in the soil. For the more stable forms, soil MP and TP, there was no significant difference in their contents under different land use patterns. In the deep soil, the content of AP in the rice-vegetable rotation pattern was significantly decreased with deepening soil layer, and the AP in traditional rotation was significantly higher than that in garden land. The trend of SP was opposite to that of AP. The difference of MP and TP in different land use patterns was small. Among the four land use patterns, the ratio of AP to TP and SP to TP in the lower layer of rice-vegetable rotation was higher than that in other patterns, while the ratio of AP to TP decreased significantly under different land use patterns at 20-40 cm. The change of SP to TP with the downward ratio of soil layer was opposite to that of AP to TP. Additionally, the ratio of MP to TP was relatively stable under different land use patterns. Therefore, different land use patterns exerted significant effects on the distribution of AP and SP in the soil profile of Chengdu Plain.

[The characteristics of soil water and gas transport under different land use patterns in the water-wind erosion crisscross region]

Understanding the effects of land use patterns on soil water and gas transport in the water-wind erosion crisscross region can provide guidance for high-efficiency use of limited soil and water resource in the ecological rehabilitation process on the Loess Plateau. To investigate the cha-racteristics of soil water and gas transport under different land use patterns and to study the relationships between soil saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s), air permeability (K_a) and relative gas diffusivity (D_P/D₀), we collected soil samples (0-5 cm depth) from Caragana korshinskii land, abandoned land, alfalfa land, cropland, and bare land. K_s was measured by constant-head method. D_P/D₀ was measured by gas chamber method. K_a under field capacity (FC) was measured using the soil gas permeability meter. Results showed that soil bulk density (ρ_b) ranked as alfalfa land>bare land>abandoned land>C. korshinskii land >cropland, with that of abandoned land, bare land and alfalfa land being significantly different from that of cropland. Total soil porosity (Φ) ranked as cropland>C. korshinskii land>abandoned land>bare land>alfalfa land. Compared with cropland, Φ of alfalfa land, bare land and abandoned land was lower by 7.5%, 4.7% and 3.1%, respectively. Air filled porosity (ε₁₀₀) ranked as cropland>abandoned land>C. korshinskii land>bare land>alfalfa land. ε₁₀₀ of alfalfa land, bare land, C. korshinskii land and abandoned land was lower by 38.3%, 33.6%, 12.8% and 10.1%, respectively, as compared with cropland. Soil K_s ranked as abandoned land>C. korshinskii land>alfalfa land>bare land>cropland, with that of the abandoned land being significantly higher than the other four land use patterns. Soil K_a ranked as abandoned land>alfalfa land>C. korshinskii land>bare land>cropland, with that of abandoned land being significantly diffe-rent with cropland. Soil D_P/D₀ ranked as abandoned land> C. korshinskii land> alfalfa land>cropland>bare land, in which D_P/D₀ of C. korshinskii land and abandoned land was significantly higher than cropland by 36.8% and 61.6%, respectively. There were significant correlations between K_s and K_a, D_P/D₀ under FC conditions. Land use patterns significantly changed soil permeability. Farmland, abandonment, C. korshinskii, and alfalfa plantation improved hydraulic and gas transport parameters of the surface soil. In contrast, farmland and bare land had poor capability of soil water and gas transport.

Intensive tobacco cultivations, a possible public health risk?

The cultivation of tobacco has serious consequences for the environment: it impoverishes the soil by assimilating its nutrients, it involves an intensive use of highly polluting pesticides, it perturbs the ecosystem through deforestation, and it releases nicotine into the environment, which is toxic for humans. Italy is the first producer of raw tobacco in Europe and the Valtiberina area is among the most profitable. The first cultivations can be reconducted to the period around 1400. The objective of this experimental work is to verify the sustainability of tobacco cultivation near other crops using nicotine as an indicator. The nicotine on medicinal and wild plants adjacent to tobacco crops has been analyzed, assessing whether it is present or not and which is the concentration. To measure the nicotine present with ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC), LC/MS (liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry) method was used with LOQ (quantification limit) of 0.005 mg/kg. A total of 300 lots of aromatic herbs were sampled, and nicotine was detected in 82.3% of the samples in 2015 and 62.9% in 2016. Furthermore, in 2015, 121 samples of wild material were analyzed, of which 88.4% showed traces of nicotine. These first results indicate a possible potential threat for the population health. This shows that the tobacco cultivation should not be in close proximity to other plantation destined for nutrition, neither for man and nor animals. The elevated impact of nicotine on the ecosystem has negative consequences not only for the economy but it is also a potential public health threat.