An Assessment of the Expected Cost-Effectiveness of Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccines in Ontario, Canada Using a Static Model

Ontario, Canada, immunizes against influenza using a trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV3) under a Universal Influenza Immunization Program (UIIP). The UIIP offers IIV3 free-of-charge to all Ontarians over 6 months of age. A newly approved quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV4) offers wider protection against influenza B disease. We explored the expected cost-utility and budget impact of replacing IIV3 with IIV4, within the context of Ontario’s UIIP, using a probabilistic and static cost-utility model. Wherever possible, epidemiological and cost data were obtained from Ontario sources. Canadian or U.S. sources were used when Ontario data were not available. Vaccine efficacy for IIV3 was obtained from the literature. IIV4 efficacy was derived from meta-analysis of strain-specific vaccine efficacy. Conservatively, herd protection was not considered. In the base case, we used IIV3 and IIV4 prices of $5.5/dose and $7/dose, respectively. We conducted a sensitivity analysis on the price of IIV4, as well as standard univariate and multivariate statistical uncertainty analyses. Over a typical influenza season, relative to IIV3, IIV4 is expected to avert an additional 2,516 influenza cases, 1,683 influenza-associated medical visits, 27 influenza-associated hospitalizations, and 5 influenza-associated deaths. From a societal perspective, IIV4 would generate 76 more Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and a net societal budget impact of $4,784,112. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio for this comparison was $63,773/QALY. IIV4 remains cost-effective up to a 53% price premium over IIV3. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that IIV4 was cost-effective with a probability of 65% for a threshold of $100,000/QALY gained. IIV4 is expected to achieve reductions in influenza-related morbidity and mortality compared to IIV3. Despite not accounting for herd protection, IIV4 is still expected to be a cost-effective alternative to IIV3 up to a price premium of 53%. Our conclusions were robust in the face of sensitivity analyses.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of a Television Campaign to Promote Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Among the Elderly

BACKGROUND

The U.S. policy goals regarding influenza vaccination coverage rate among the elderly include the increase in the coverage rate and the elimination of disparities across racial/ethnic groups.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the potential effectiveness of a television (TV) campaign to increase seasonal influenza vaccination among the elderly.

METHODS

We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, defined as incremental cost per additionally vaccinated Medicare individual) of a hypothetical nationwide TV campaign for influenza vaccination compared with no campaign. We measured the effectiveness of the nationwide TV campaign (advertised once a week at prime time for 30 seconds) during a 17-week influenza vaccination season among four racial/ethnic elderly groups (N=39 million): non-Hispanic white (W), non-Hispanic African American (AA), English-speaking Hispanic (EH), and Spanish-speaking Hispanic (SH).

RESULTS

The hypothetical campaign cost was $5,960,000 (in 2012 US dollars). The estimated campaign effectiveness ranged from -1.1% (the SH group) to 1.42% (the W group), leading to an increased disparity in influenza vaccination among non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic African American (W-AA) groups (0.6 percentage points), W-EH groups (0.1 percentage points), and W-SH groups (1.5 percentage points). The estimated ICER was $23.54 (95% confidence interval $14.21-$39.37) per additionally vaccinated Medicare elderly in a probabilistic analysis. Race/ethnicity-specific ICERs were lowest among the EH group ($22.27), followed by the W group ($22.47) and the AA group ($30.55). The nationwide TV campaign was concluded to be reasonably cost-effective compared with a benchmark intervention (with ICER $44.39 per vaccinated individual) of a school-located vaccination program. Break-even analyses estimated the maximum acceptable campaign cost to be $14,870,000, which was comparable to the benchmark ICER.

CONCLUSIONS

The results could justify public expenditures on the implementation of a future nationwide TV campaign, which should include multilingual campaigns, for promoting seasonal influenza vaccination.

Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of intranasal live attenuated influenza vaccination of children in Germany

In 2011, intranasally administered live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) was approved in the EU for prophylaxis of seasonal influenza in 2-17-year-old children. Our objective was to estimate the potential epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of an LAIV-based extension of the influenza vaccination programme to healthy children in Germany. An age-structured dynamic model of influenza transmission was developed and combined with a decision-tree to evaluate different vaccination strategies in the German health care system. Model inputs were based on published literature or were derived by expert consulting using the Delphi technique. Unit costs were drawn from German sources. Under base-case assumptions, annual routine vaccination of children aged 2-17 years with LAIV assuming an uptake of 50% would prevent, across all ages, 16 million cases of symptomatic influenza, over 600,000 cases of acute otitis media, nearly 130,000 cases of community-acquired pneumonia, nearly 1.7 million prescriptions of antibiotics and over 165,000 hospitalisations over 10 years. The discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was <euro> 1,228 per quality-adjusted life year gained from a broad third-party payer perspective (including reimbursed direct costs and specific transfer payments), when compared with the current strategy of vaccinating primarily risk groups with the conventional trivalent inactivated vaccine. Inclusion of patient co-payments and indirect costs in terms of productivity losses resulted in discounted 10-year cost savings of <euro> 3.4 billion. In conclusion, adopting universal influenza immunisation of healthy children and adolescents would lead to a substantial reduction in influenza-associated disease at a reasonable cost to the German statutory health insurance system. On the basis of the epidemiological and health economic simulation results, a recommendation of introducing annual routine influenza vaccination of children 2-17 years of age might be taken into consideration.

Urgent Care Facilities: Geographic Variation in Utilization and Charges for Common Lab Tests, Office Visits, and Flu Vaccines

The rapid growth of urgent care facilities (UCFs) and other types of convenient care centers has largely been attributed to increasing consumer demand for more convenient and affordable healthcare. UCFs typically treat non-emergency, acute conditions and are increasingly serving as an alternative to "traditional" care settings, such as physician offices and emergency departments (EDs). A study was conducted to characterize geographic variation in both utilization and charges for common lab tests, office visits, and flu vaccines by care settings. Based on claims data from FAIR Health's National Private Insurance Claims (FHNPIC) database, the results suggest that utilization and charge patterns for common procedures vary significantly by care setting across geographic region and over time but the variations are generally small in magnitude. For example, across geographic regions, charges for the flu vaccine are found to be higher when performed in a physician's office in contrast to being performed in a UCF.

On the optimal production capacity for influenza vaccine

This paper analyzes the profit maximizing capacity choice of a monopolistic vaccine producer facing the uncertain event of a pandemic in a homogenous population of forward-looking individuals. For any capacity level, the monopolist solves the intertemporal price discrimination problem within the dynamic setting generated by the standard mathematical epidemiological model of infectious diseases. Even though consumers are assumed to be identical, the monopolist will be able to exploit the ex post heterogeneity between infected and susceptible individuals by raising the price of vaccine in response to the increasing hazard rate. The monopolist thus bases its investment decision on the expected profits from the optimal price path given the infection dynamics. It is shown that the monopolist will always choose to invest in a lower production capacity than the social planner. Through numerical simulation, it is demonstrated how the loss to society of having a monopoly producer decreases with the speed of infection transmission. Moreover, it is illustrated how the monopolist's optimal vaccination rate increases as its discount rate rises for cost parameters based on Swedish data. However, the effect of the firm discount rate on its investment decision is sensitive to assumptions regarding the cost of production capacity.

"With human health it's a global thing": Canadian perspectives on ethics in the global governance of an influenza pandemic

We live in an era where our health is linked to that of others across the globe, and nothing brings this home better than the specter of a pandemic. This paper explores the findings of town hall meetings associated with the Canadian Program of Research on Ethics in a Pandemic (CanPREP), in which focus groups met to discuss issues related to the global governance of an influenza pandemic. Two competing discourses were found to be at work: the first was based upon an economic rationality and the second upon a humanitarian rationality. The implications for public support and the long-term sustainability of new global norms, networks, and regulations in global public health are discussed.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of quadrivalent influenza vaccination in at-risk adults and the elderly: an updated analysis in the U.K

OBJECTIVE

To update an earlier evaluation estimating the cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent influenza vaccination (QIV) compared with trivalent influenza vaccination (TIV) in the adult population currently recommended for influenza vaccination in the UK (all people aged ≥65 years and people aged 18-64 years with clinical risk conditions).

METHODS

This analysis takes into account updated vaccine prices, reference costs, influenza strain circulation, and burden of illness data. A lifetime, multi-cohort, static Markov model was constructed with seven age groups. The model was run in 1-year cycles for a lifetime, i.e., until the youngest patients at entry reached the age of 100 years. The base-case analysis was from the perspective of the UK National Health Service, with a secondary analysis from the societal perspective. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5%. Herd effects were not included. Inputs were derived from systematic reviews, peer-reviewed articles, and government publications and databases. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

In the base-case, QIV would be expected to avoid 1,413,392 influenza cases, 41,780 hospitalizations, and 19,906 deaths over the lifetime horizon, compared with TIV. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £14,645 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. From the societal perspective, the estimated ICER was £13,497/QALY. A strategy of vaccinating only people aged ≥65 years had an estimated ICER of £11,998/QALY. Sensitivity analysis indicated that only two parameters, seasonal variation in influenza B matching and influenza A circulation, had a substantial effect on the ICER. QIV would be likely to be cost-effective compared with TIV in 68% of simulations with a willingness-to-pay threshold of <£20,000/QALY and 87% with a willingness-to-pay threshold of <£30,000/QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

In this updated analysis, QIV was estimated to be cost-effective compared with TIV in the U.K.

Expected cost effectiveness of high-dose trivalent influenza vaccine in US seniors

OBJECTIVES

Seniors are particularly vulnerable to complications resulting from influenza infection. Numerous influenza vaccines are available to immunize US seniors, and practitioners must decide which product to use. Options include trivalent and quadrivalent standard-dose inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV3 and IIV4 respectively), as well as a high-dose IIV3 (HD). Our research examines the public health impact, budget impact, and cost-utility of HD versus IIV3 and IIV4 for immunization of US seniors 65 years of age and older.

METHODS

Our model was based on US influenza-related health outcome data. Health care costs and vaccine prices were obtained from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Efficacies of IIV3 and IIV4 were estimated from various meta-analyses of IIV3 efficacy. The results of a head-to-head randomized controlled trial of HD vs. IIV3 were used to estimate relative efficacy of HD. Conservatively, herd protection was not considered.

RESULTS

Compared to IIV3, HD would avert 195,958 cases of influenza, 22,567 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 5423 influenza-related deaths among US seniors. HD generates 29,023 more Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and a net societal budget impact of $154 million. The Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) for this comparison is $5299/QALY. 71% of the probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) simulations were <$100,000/QALY. Compared to IIV4, HD would avert 169,257 cases of influenza, 21,222 hospitalizations and 5212 deaths. HD generates 27,718 more QALYs and a net societal budget impact of -$17 million and as such dominates IIV4. For this comparison, 81% of PSA simulations were <$100,000/QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

HD is expected to achieve significant reductions in influenza-related morbidity and mortality. Further, HD is a cost effective alternative to both IIV3 and IIV4 in seniors. Our conclusions were robust in the face of sensitivity analyses.

Costs of adult vaccination in medical settings and pharmacies: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Community pharmacies are a convenient setting for vaccinating adults against infectious diseases in the United States. Whether the costs paid for vaccination in pharmacies differ from those in medical settings is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether the direct medical costs paid for adult vaccination differ by vaccination setting.

METHODS

This was an observational retrospective study using 2010 MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters and Medicare Supplemental and Coordination of Benefits databases. Adults receiving herpes zoster or shingles vaccine, pneumococcal vaccine 23-valent, or influenza vaccines were identified using Current Procedural Terminology codes and National Drug Code numbers from medical and pharmacy claims files, respectively, between January 1 and December 31, 2010, in 1 of the following 3 settings: physician offices; other medical settings (e.g., inpatient/outpatient hospitals, emergency rooms); and pharmacies. Patients were adults aged ≥60 years on the date of zoster vaccination and aged ≥19 years on the date of pneumococcal or influenza vaccinations. The final study samples meeting inclusion/exclusion criteria were 54,042 for zoster vaccine, 154,994 for pneumococcal vaccine, and 1,657,264 for influenza vaccine. The vaccination costs included the health plan and enrollee paid amounts for the product; vaccine administration; dispensing fee; and, where applicable, the visit. The mean (SD) vaccination costs paid per vaccine administration were estimated by vaccine and type of setting, overall, and by geographic region and type of health plan. The costs paid for the same vaccine across vaccination settings were compared using analysis of variance with post hoc tests (Tukey).

RESULTS

Of those receiving zoster, pneumococcal, and influenza vaccines, 25%, 1%, and 7%, respectively, received the vaccines at a pharmacy. Compared with other U.S. regions, pharmacy-based vaccination for these 3 vaccines was generally more frequent in the West and the South. Overall, the mean (SD) costs paid per enrollee per vaccine administration at physician offices, other medical settings, and pharmacies were as follows: for zoster vaccine, $208.72 (42.10), $209.51 (50.83), and $168.50 (15.66), respectively (P <0.05); for pneumococcal vaccine, $65.69 (27.54), $72.11 (49.95), and $54.98 (9.72), respectively (P <0.05); and for influenza vaccine, $29.29 (15.29), $24.20 (13.12), and $21.57 (6.63), respectively (P <0.05). The mean amounts paid also differed by geographic region and type of health plan, with costs usually lower for the vaccinations given at pharmacies.

CONCLUSIONS

The average direct costs paid per adult vaccination were lower in pharmacies compared with physician offices and other medical settings by 16%-26% and 11%-20%, respectively. These results were mostly consistent across geographic regions and types of health plans. These data may help payers and policymakers understand the economic value of adult vaccination in different settings, especially in pharmacies.

Parents' preferences for seasonal influenza vaccine for their children in Japan

In Japan, trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine is the only approved influenza vaccine. It is typically administrated by hypodermic injection, and children under 13 years of age are recommended to be vaccinated two times during each winter season. Live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) is administered by a thimerosal-free nasal spray. If LAIV is approved in the future in Japan, parents will have an alternative type of influenza vaccine for their children. This study investigated parents' preference for the type of seasonal influenza vaccine for their children if alternatives are available. The marginal willingness to pay for vaccine benefits was also evaluated. We conducted a discrete choice experiment, a quantitative approach that is often used in healthcare studies, in January 2013. Respondents were recruited from a registered online survey panel, and parents with at least one child under 13 years of age were offered questionnaires. This study showed that for seasonal influenza vaccines for their children, parents are more likely to value safety, including thimerosal-free vaccines and those with a lower risk of adverse events, instead of avoiding the momentary pain from an injection. If LAIV is released in Japan, the fact that it is thimerosal-free could be an advantage. However, for parents to choose LAIV, they would need to accept the slightly higher risk of minor adverse events from LAIV.

Determinants of willingness to pay for self-paid vaccines in China

BACKGROUND

While vaccines not covered by China's Expanded Program on Immunization can be received voluntarily with out-of-pocket payment, the uptake of self-paid vaccines in China is low.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate willingness to pay (WTP) for self-paid vaccines and its determinants in China.

METHODS

We interviewed 2160 randomly selected households with children 0-3 years old, in 108 communities from three provinces in 2013. A bidding game method was used to elicit WTP for two self-paid vaccines: 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and influenza vaccine. We conducted multivariate linear regressions to determine factors affecting the WTP.

RESULTS

Median WTP for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and influenza vaccine were Chinese Yuan 200 and 60 (10 US Dollars). 92% and 55% of respondents, respectively were not willing to pay the market price for these two vaccines. Lower price barrier and higher ability to pay were associated with higher WTP. Those with better vaccine or disease-related knowledge, higher perceived vulnerability and severity of diseases were willing to pay more. However, perceived effectiveness and safety barriers to vaccination had no significant effects on the WTP. Recommendations from peers and healthcare providers increased the WTP. Fathers and grand parents of children had a higher WTP than their mothers. The WTP decreased with age, but was not affected by education and occupation.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of individuals, in our study, were not willing to pay the market price for self-paid vaccines against high-burden diseases in China. The economic barriers to vaccination should therefore be removed to increase the demand. Region-specific information about disease burden, fiscal capacity and cost-effectiveness is important for the development of local financing policy in order to cover vaccination costs. Interventions targeting psychosocial factors, such as health education and communication with providers and peers, could also be effective in increasing the uptake of these vaccinations.

The potential cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in elderly people and clinical risk groups in the UK: a lifetime multi-cohort model

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent influenza vaccine compared with trivalent influenza vaccine in the UK.

METHODS

A lifetime, multi-cohort, static Markov model was constructed, with nine age groups each divided into healthy and at-risk categories. Influenza A and B were accounted for separately. The model was run in one-year cycles for a lifetime (maximum age: 100 years). The analysis was from the perspective of the UK National Health Service. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5%. 2010 UK vaccination policy (vaccination of people at risk and those aged ≥65 years) was applied. Herd effect was not included. Inputs were derived from national databases and published sources where possible. The quadrivalent influenza vaccine price was not available when the study was conducted. It was estimated at £6.72,15% above the trivalent vaccine price of £5.85. Sensitivity analyses used an incremental price of up to 50%.

RESULTS

Compared with trivalent influenza vaccine, the quadrivalent influenza vaccine would be expected to reduce the numbers of influenza cases by 1,393,720, medical visits by 439,852 complications by 167,357, hospitalisations for complications by 26,424 and influenza deaths by 16,471. The estimated base case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £5,299/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Sensitivity analyses indicated that the ICER was sensitive to changes in circulation of influenza virus subtypes and vaccine mismatch; all other parameters had little effect. In 96% of simulations the ICER was <£20,000/QALY. Since this analysis was completed, quadrivalent influenza vaccine has become available in the UK at a list price of £9.94. Using this price in the model, the estimated ICER for quadrivalent compared with trivalent vaccination was £27,378/QALY, still within the NICE cost-effectiveness threshold (£20,000-£30,000).

CONCLUSIONS

Quadrivalent influenza vaccine could reduce influenza disease burden and would be cost-effective compared with trivalent influenza vaccine in elderly people and clinical risk groups in the UK.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal influenza vaccination with quadrivalent inactivated vaccine in the United States

To address influenza B lineage mismatch and co-circulation, several quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV4s) containing two type A strains and both type B lineages have recently been approved in the United States. Currently available trivalent inactivated vaccines (IIV3s) or trivalent live attenuated influenza vaccines (LAIV3s) comprise two influenza A strains and one of the two influenza B lineages that have co-circulated in the United States since 2001. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a policy of universal vaccination with IIV4 vs. IIV3/LAIV3 during 1 year in the United States. On average per influenza season, IIV4 was predicted to result in 30,251 fewer influenza cases, 3512 fewer hospitalizations, 722 fewer deaths, 4812 fewer life-years lost, and 3596 fewer quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost vs. IIV3/LAIV3. Using the Fluarix Quadrivalent(TM) (GlaxoSmithKline) prices and the weighted average IIV3/LAIV3 prices, the model predicts that the vaccination program costs would increase by $452.2 million, while direct medical and indirect costs would decrease by $111.6 million and $218.7 million, respectively, with IIV4. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) comparing IIV4 to IIV3/LAIV3 is predicted to be $90,301/QALY gained. Deterministic sensitivity analyses found that influenza B vaccine-matched and mismatched efficacies among adults aged ≥65 years had the greatest impact on the ICER. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the cost per QALY remained below $100,000 for 61% of iterations. In conclusion, vaccination with IIV4 in the US is predicted to reduce morbidity and mortality. This strategy is also predicted to be cost-effective vs. IIV3/LAIV3 at conventional willingness-to-pay thresholds.

Cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for annual influenza vaccination among children aged 6 months to 14 years in four provinces in China

Background

To support policy making, we developed an initial model to assess the cost-effectiveness of potential strategies to increase influenza vaccination rates among children in China.

Methods

We studied on children aged 6 months to 14 years in four provinces (Shandong, Henan, Hunan, and Sichuan), with a health care system perspective. We used data from 2005/6 to 2010/11, excluding 2009/10. Costs are reported in 2010 U.S. dollars.

Results

In comparison with no vaccination, the mean (range) of Medically Attended Cases averted by the current self-payment policy for the two age groups (6 to 59 months and 60 months to 14 years) was 1,465 (23∼11,132) and 792 (36∼4,247), and the cost effectiveness ratios were $ 0 (-11-51) and $ 37 (6-125) per case adverted, respectively. In comparison with the current policy, the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of alternative strategies, OPTION One-reminder and OPTION Two-comprehensive package, decreased as vaccination rate increased. The ICER for children aged 6 to 59 months was lower than that for children aged 60 months to 14 years.

Conclusions

The model is a useful tool in identifying elements for evaluating vaccination strategies. However, more data are needed to produce more accurate cost-effectiveness estimates of potential vaccination policies.

Free-riding behavior in vaccination decisions: an experimental study

Individual decision-making regarding vaccination may be affected by the vaccination choices of others. As vaccination produces externalities reducing transmission of a disease, it can provide an incentive for individuals to be free-riders who benefit from the vaccination of others while avoiding the cost of vaccination. This study examined an individual's decision about vaccination in a group setting for a hypothetical disease that is called “influenza” using a computerized experimental game. In the game, interactions with others are allowed. We found that higher observed vaccination rate within the group during the previous round of the game decreased the likelihood of an individual's vaccination acceptance, indicating the existence of free-riding behavior. The free-riding behavior was observed regardless of parameter conditions on the characteristics of the influenza and vaccine. We also found that other predictors of vaccination uptake included an individual's own influenza exposure in previous rounds increasing the likelihood of vaccination acceptance, consistent with existing empirical studies. Influenza prevalence among other group members during the previous round did not have a statistically significant effect on vaccination acceptance in the current round once vaccination rate in the previous round was controlled for.

Coverage and parental perceptions of influenza vaccination among parents of children aged 6 to 23 months in Hong Kong

BACKGROUND

The impact of influenza on young children can be severe and even fatal. Influenza vaccination (IV) has been shown to be effective in reducing complications of influenza among children. This study investigated the prevalence and factors of IV among children aged 6-23 months in Hong Kong.

METHODS

A sample of 401 Chinese parents of children aged 6-23 months were interviewed at local Maternal and Child Health Centers. Socio-demographic information, variables related to Health Belief Model, including perceptions about the child's chance of contracting influenza, perceived harm of influenza on children, perceived benefits and side-effects of IV, having received recommendations from health professionals to uptake IV, and IV behaviors of the children were measured. Multivariate analysis was used to examine factors associated with IV behaviors of children.

RESULTS

Only 9% of the children had ever been vaccinated. Among those parents who had heard of IV (92.0%), substantial proportions perceived that IV could reduce the risk of influenza-induced complications (70.5%), hospitalization (70.5%) and death (65.9%). Relatively few of the participants believed that IV had no side effects (17.1%) and even less had been recommended by health care professionals to uptake IV (10.6%). Results from multivariate analysis showed that physician recommendations were associated with a higher likelihood for IV among younger children, whilst parental perceptions of the side effects of IV was associated with a lower likelihood for IV.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of IV among children aged 6-23 months in Hong Kong was very low. Promotion of IV with the component of physician recommendations and parents' knowledge about IV safety for this group is warranted.

Toward more specific and transparent research and development costs: the case of seasonal influenza vaccines

BACKGROUND

The ability to calculate the development costs for specific medicines and vaccines is important to inform investments in innovation. Unfortunately, the literature is predominated by non-reproducible studies only measuring aggregate level drug research and development (R&D) costs. We describe methodology that improves the transparency and reproducibility of primary indication expected R&D expenditures.

METHODS

We used publically accessible clinical trial data to investigate the fate of all seasonal influenza vaccine candidates that entered clinical development post year 2000. We calculated development times and probabilities of success for these candidates through the various phases of clinical development. Clinical trial cost data obtained from university based clinical researchers were used to estimate the costs of each phase of development. The cost of preclinical development was estimated using published literature.

RESULTS

A vaccine candidate entering pre-clinical development in 2011 would be expected to achieve licensure in 2022; all costs are reported in 2022 Canadian dollars (CAD). After applying a 9% cost of capital, the capitalized total R&D expenditure amounts to $474.88 million CAD.

CONCLUSION

Clinical development costs for vaccines and drugs can be estimated with increased specificity and transparency using public sources of data. The robustness of these estimates will only increase over time due to public disclosure incentives first introduced in the late 1990s. However, preclinical development costs remain difficult to estimate from public data.

Cost effectiveness analysis of elementary school-located vaccination against influenza--results from a randomized controlled trial

School-located vaccination against influenza (SLV-I) has been suggested to help meet the need for annual vaccination of large numbers of school-aged children with seasonal influenza vaccine. However, little is known about the cost and cost-effectiveness of SLV-I. We conducted a cost-analysis and a cost-effectiveness analysis based on a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of an SLV-I program implemented in Monroe County, New York during the 2009-2010 vaccination season. We hypothesized that SLV-I is more cost effective, or less-costly, compared to a conventional, office-located influenza vaccination delivery. First and second SLV-I clinics were offered in 21 intervention elementary schools (n=9027 children) with standard of care (no SLV-I) in 11 control schools (n=4534 children). The direct costs, to purchase and administer vaccines, were estimated from our RCT. The effectiveness measure, receipt of ≥1 dose of influenza vaccine, was 13.2 percentage points higher in SLV-I schools than control schools. The school costs ($9.16/dose in 2009 dollars) plus project costs ($23.00/dose) plus vendor costs excluding vaccine purchase ($19.89/dose) was higher in direct costs ($52.05/dose) than the previously reported mean/median cost [$38.23/$21.44 per dose] for providing influenza vaccination in pediatric practices. However SLV-I averted parent costs to visit medical practices ($35.08 per vaccine). Combining direct and averted costs through Monte Carlo Simulation, SLV-I costs were $19.26/dose in net costs, which is below practice-based influenza vaccination costs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated to be $92.50 or $38.59 (also including averted parent costs). When additionally accounting for the costs averted by disease prevention (i.e., both reduced disease transmission to household members and reduced loss of productivity from caring for a sick child), the SLV-I model appears to be cost-saving to society, compared to "no vaccination". Our findings support the expanded implementation of SLV-I, but also the need to focus on efficient delivery to reduce direct costs.

Key issues for estimating the impact and cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination strategies

Many countries have considered or are considering modifying their seasonal influenza immunization policies. Estimating the impact of such changes requires understanding the existing clinical and economic burden of influenza, as well as the potential impact of different vaccination options. Previous studies suggest that vaccinating clinical risk groups, health care workers, children and the elderly may be cost-effective. However, challenges in such estimation include: (1) potential cases are not usually virologically tested; (2) cases have non-specific symptoms and are rarely reported to surveillance systems; (3) endpoints for influenza proxies (such as influenza-like illness) need to be matched to case definitions for treatment costs, (4) disease burden estimates vary from year to year with strain transmissibility, virulence and prior immunity, (5) methods to estimate productivity losses due to influenza vary, (6) vaccine efficacy estimates from trials differ due to variation in subtype prevalence, vaccine match and case ascertainment, and (7) indirect (herd) protection from vaccination depends on setting-specific variables that are difficult to directly measure. Given the importance of knowing the impact of changes to influenza policy, such complexities need careful treatment using tools such as population-based trial designs, meta-analyses, time-series analyses and transmission dynamic models.

Economic benefits of inactivated influenza vaccines in the prevention of seasonal influenza in children

The aim of this study was to systematically review published studies that evaluated the efficiency of inactivated influenza vaccination in preventing seasonal influenza in children. The vaccine evaluated was the influenza-inactivated vaccine in 10 studies and the virosomal inactivated vaccine in 3 studies. The results show that yearly vaccination of children with the inactivated influenza vaccine saves money from the societal and family perspectives but not from the public or private provider perspective. When vaccination does not save money, the cost-effectiveness ratios were very acceptable. It can be concluded, that inactivated influenza vaccination of children is a very efficient intervention.