A novel predictive model for new-onset atrial fibrillation in patients after isolated cardiac valve surgery

Background

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a severe complication after cardiac surgery and is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke and mortality. The main aim of this study was to identify the independent predictors associated with POAF after isolated valve operation and to develop a risk prediction model.

Methods

This retrospective observational study involved patients without previous AF who underwent isolated valve surgery from November 2018 to October 2021. Patients were stratified into two groups according to the development of new-onset POAF. Baseline characteristics and perioperative data were collected from the two groups of patients. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied to identify independent risk factors for the occurrence of POAF, and the results of the multivariate analysis were used to create a predictive nomogram.

Results

A total of 422 patients were included in the study, of which 163 (38.6%) developed POAF. The Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that cardiac function (odds ratio [OR] = 2.881, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.595–5.206; P < 0.001), Left atrial diameter index (OR = 1.071, 95%CI = 1.028–1.117; P = 0.001), Operative time (OR = 1.532, 95%CI = 1.095–2.141; P = 0.013), Neutrophil count (OR = 1.042, 95%CI = 1.006–1.08; P = 0.021) and the magnitude of fever (OR = 3.414, 95%CI = 2.454–4.751; P < 0.001) were independent predictors of POAF. The above Variables were incorporated, and a nomogram was successfully constructed with a C-index of 0.810. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.817.

Conclusion

Cardiac function, left atrial diameter index, operative time, neutrophil count, and fever were independent predictors of POAF in patients with isolated valve surgery. Establishing a nomogram model based on the above predictors helps predict the risk of POAF and may have potential clinical utility in preventive interventions.

Correlation between C7-T1 Intervertebral Foramen Area and Sagittal Parameters in Patients with Cervical Spondylotic Myelopathy

Objective

Cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM) is an incomplete spinal cord injury characterized with pain and stiffness in the neck and motor and sensory dysfunction. This study aims to determine whether C7–T1 intervertebral foramen area could be used as a parameter to evaluate the sagittal curvature of cervical spine.

Methods

Patients with clinical manifestations of spinal cord compression were hospitalized in our hospital from September 2018 to August 2019. All patients were diagnosed with CSM by nuclear magnetic imaging and other imaging methods. C2–C7 Cobb angle and T1 slop (T1S) were measured on the sagittal, T2‐weighted magnetic resonance image of cervical spine, and C7–T1 intervertebral foramen area were measured using oblique cervical spine X‐rays. Patients were divided into two groups according to the value of C2–C7 Cobb angle, including lordosis group (C2–C7 Cobb angle >10°, n = 45) and straight group (C2–7 Cobb angle ≤10°, n = 55). The reliability of the data was evaluated by intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), and the correlation of the imaging parameters was analyzed by Pearson correlation.

Results

A total of 100 patients diagnosed with CSM hospitalized in our department were included. The ICC of the cervical parameters was 0.73. C7–T1 intervertebral foramen area was 40.69 ± 11.44 and 39.95 ± 10.94 mm² in lordosis and straight group, respectively. The results showed that C7–T1 intervertebral foramen area was positively correlated with both C2–C7 Cobb angle (r = 0.23, p = 0.02) and T1S (r = 0.21, p = 0.03). In lordosis group, there was a positive correlation between C7 and T1 intervertebral foramen area and C2–C7 Cobb angle (r = 0.69, p < 0.01) and T1S (r = 0.34, p = 0.02). However, in straight group, C7–T1 intervertebral foramen area was not correlated with either C2–C7 Cobb angle or T1S.

Conclusion

C7–T1 intervertebral foramen area measured by oblique X‐ray could be an effective method to evaluate the sagittal balance of cervical vertebrae for CSM patients with cervical lordosis.

Effect of dexmedetomidine on intracranial pressure in patients undergoing gynecological laparoscopic surgery in Trendelenburg position through ultrasonographic measurement of optic nerve sheath diameter

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of dexmedetomidine on intracranial pressure (ICP) in patients undergoing gynecological laparoscopic surgery in Trendelenburg position through ultrasonographic measurement of optic nerve sheath diameter (ONSD).

METHODS

Ninety patients underwent total laparoscopic hysterectomy were selected as research subjects in this prospective study. These patients were divided into a dexmedetomidine group (n=45) and a control group (n=45) using a random number table. The dexmedetomidine group was pumped with 0.5 μg/kg dexmedetomidine (20041731, Yangtze River Pharmaceutical Group, China) 10 min before the anesthesia induction, followed by a continuous pump of 0.5 μg/(kg·h) until the end of the surgery, and the control group was pumped with 0.5 μg/(kg·h) 0.9% sodium chloride solution. Patients in both groups were assisted with mechanical ventilator after endotracheal intubation by rapid induction. Intraoperatively, the pneumoperitoneum pressure was maintained at 14 mmHg, and the bispectral index was maintained at 40 to 60. We recorded ONSD measured with ultrasonography in both groups at 5 min before induction of anesthesia in supine position (T1), 5 min after CO₂ pneumoperitoneum in Trendelenburg position (T2), 30 min after CO₂ pneumoperitoneum in Trendelenburg position (T3), 60 min after CO₂ pneumoperitoneum in Trendelenburg position (T4) and 5 min after the close of pneumoperitoneum in supine position (T5). The cerebral oxygen metabolism indicators of the two groups at different time periods were compared, including jugular venous oxygen saturation (SjvO₂), arterial content and arterial-to-internal jugular difference (Da-jvO₂), cerebral oxygen extraction rate (CERO₂). Heart rate (HR) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) were also recorded at T1-T5. Besides, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade, time of endotracheal extubation, recovery time for orientation and postoperative adverse reactions were recorded in each group.

RESULTS

There were significant differences in ONSD at T2 ((4.77±0.14) mm vs. (4.98±0.13) mm), T3 ((5.19±0.15) mm vs. (5.53±0.14) mm), T4 ((5.10±0.11) mm vs. (5.27±0.13) mm) and T5 ((4.71±0.12) mm vs. (4.4±0.16) mm) between the two groups (all P<0.05), and obvious differences were also found within groups when comparing the ONSD at T2-T5 to that at T1 (P<0.05). There were also significant differences in SjvO₂, Da-jvO₂ and CERO₂ between the control group and the dexmedetomidine group at T2-T5 (all P<0.05), and obvious differences were found within groups when comparing the indices at T2-T5 to those at T1 (P<0.05). The incidences of postoperative dizziness (20.00%), nausea and vomiting (17.78%), and headache (13.33%) in the dexmedetomidine group and were significantly lower than those in the control group (55.56%, 48.89% and 42.22%, respectively; all P<0.05). At T2-T5, dexmedetomidine group had lower HR than control group (P<0.05), while no differences were found in MAP between the two groups (P>0.05). There were also no differences in ASA grade, time of endotracheal extubation, and recovery time for orientation between the two groups (both P>0.05).

CONCLUSION

Dexmedetomidine can effectively decrease the occurence of increased ICP in patients undergoing gynecological laparoscopic surgery in Trendelenburg position, improve brain oxygen metabolism, and reduce the incidences of postoperative dizziness, nausea and vomiting as well as headache (China Clinical Trials Registration Center, registration number: ChiCTR2100052046, https://www.chictr.org.cn).

Effects of ultrasound-guided stellate ganglion block on the balance of the supply and demand of cerebral oxygen during permissive hypercapnia in patients undergoing shoulder arthroscopy in beach chair position

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effects of ultrasound-guided stellate ganglion block (SGB) on the supply and demand balance of cerebral oxygen in patients with permissive hypercapnia (PHC) undergoing shoulder arthroscopy in a beach chair position (BCP).

METHOD

In this prospective study, a total of 86 patients who had shoulder arthroscopy were enrolled and divided into the stellate ganglion block group (SG group, n=43) and the control group (CN group, n=43) using a random number table method. Ultrasound-guided SGB was performed on patients' operation side at the 6th cervical vertebra (C6) anterior transverse tubercle level. Patients in the SG group were injected with 6ml mixture of 0.25% ropivacaine hydrochloride and 1% lidocaine hydrochloride, and those in the CN group with an equal amount of 0.9% normal saline (NS). The patients of both groups were placed in BCP for shoulder arthroscopy, and rapid induction of endotracheal intubation was performed for assisted or mechanical ventilation. Ventilation strategy was adjusted to gradually increase pulmonary end-tidal CO₂ (P_ETCO₂) during surgery. The rSO₂ levels of patients in both groups were recorded 10 min after being placed in supine position in the operation room (T0), 10 min after SGB (T1), 10 min after anesthesia induction in supine position (T2), 10 min after anesthesia induction in beach chair position (T3), 30 min after P_ETCO₂ was stabilized at 35 to 40 mmHg (T4) during surgery, and 30 min after P_ETCO₂ was stabilized at 45 to 50 mmHg (T5), respectively. The cerebral oxygen metabolic measures, including saturation of jugular bulb venous oxygen (SjvO₂), difference in artery-jugular venous oxygen content (DajvO₂) and cerebral oxygen extraction rate (CERO₂) of patients in the two groups at the time point mentioned above were compared. Hemodynamic parameters including arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure (PaCO₂), mean arterial pressure (MAP), heart rate (HR) and Saturation of Pulse Oxygen (SpO₂) were recorded. Cerebral desaturation episodes, nausea, vomiting and the use of vasoactive drugs during surgery were also recorded. The Mini-Mental State Examination score (MMSE) was recorded 1 day before and after surgery.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in the comparison of SjvO₂, Da-jvO₂, CERO₂, PaCO₂, MAP, HR and SpO₂ between the two groups at T0-T5 (P>0.05); no significant differences were found in intra-group comparison of SjvO₂, Da-jvO₂, CERO₂ at T0-T4 (P>0.05); the level of SjvO₂ at T5 was higher than that at T4, and the levels of Da-jvO₂ and CERO₂ at T5 were markedly lower than those at T4 (P<0.05). No significant differences were found in the inter-group comparison of MAP, HR and SpO₂ at T0-T5 (P>0.05), while PaCO₂ was significantly higher at T4 than that at T5 (P<0.05). The rSO₂ levels of patients in both groups significantly decreased at T3, as compared with those at T0 (P<0.05); the rSO₂ levels markedly increased at T5 than those at T4 (P<0.05); and the rSO₂ levels showed more significant increase in SGB group than those in the CN group as the level of P_ETCO₂ rose.

CONCLUSION

Permissive hypercapnia resulting from proper ventilation can significantly increase the rSO₂ levels in patients who undergo shoulder arthroscopy in BCP, the effect of which was enhanced by SGB on patients' operation side to maintain well-balanced demand and supply of cerebral oxygen. (China Clinical Trial Registry, registration number ChiCTR2000033385, https://www.chictr.org.cn).

Mechanism of the promotion of GEFS+ by the STAT3-mediated expression of interleukin-6

BACKGROUND

Genetic epilepsy with febrile seizures plus (GEFS+) is generally considered an ion channelopathy. To date, there have been few studies on inflammation associated with various types of epilepsy, and it remains unclear whether the inflammatory mechanism plays a key role in epilepsy.

METHODS

In order to explore the role of the regulatory mechanism of immune factor expression in the pathogenesis of GEFS+, the present study detected the expression level of relevant immune factors such as interleukin-6 (IL-6) in peripheral blood of GEFS+ mice.

RESULTS

The cluster of differentiation 4⁺/cluster of differentiation 8⁺ (CD4⁺/CD8⁺) ratio in the GEFS+ mice was decreased, while the signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) was also activated and the IL-6 was upregulated. Inhibit of STAT3 can lead to the GEFS+ asymptomatically due to the downregulated IL-6, IL-1β, and complement factor H (CFH) levels. Suppression of STAT3 can also inhibited the epileptic seizures, the CD8⁺ T cells were declined after the IL-6 was neutralized.

CONCLUSIONS

The purpose of this study was to analyze and compare the effect of STAT3 expression and activation differences on GEFS+ attack, and to clarify the relationship between various cytokines and GEFS+ outbreak. Inhibiting the expression of pro-inflammatory factors can further prevent GEFS+ attack, which supports that IL-6 is one of the important factors that aggravate the clinical symptoms of GEFS+. We expected to provide a theoretical basis for immunosuppressive therapy of GEFS+ and a new way for its clinical treatment.

Helicobacter pylori Infection Maybe a Risk Factor for Cardiac Syndrome X

Purpose

Cardiac syndrome X (CSX) is a condition with normal coronary angiography but angina pectoris. Chronic inflammation caused by Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection may play a pathogenic role in CSX. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to explore the relationship between H. pylori infection and risk of CSX.

Methods

A systematic search in the Web of Science, Medline, Embase and Chinese databases (CNKI and Wanfang) was conducted up to October 2021. Articles on the association between H. pylori infection and the risk of CSX were included and were analyzed by R software (version 4.1.0).

Results

Ten case-control studies involving 703 CSX patients and 731 healthy controls were included. H. pylori infection was associated with an increased risk of CSX (OR: 8.29, 95% CI: 4.64–14.82). We also found a significant association in those 25–40 years of age (OR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.04–1.72), those 40–50 years of age (OR: 11.27, 95% CI: 4.29–29.61), those over 50 years of age (OR: 7.18, 95% CI: 3.59–14.36), those in developing countries [Iran (OR: 12.99, 95% CI: 8.61–19.60) and China (OR: 5.14, 95% CI: 3.09–8.56)]. However, this association was not apparent in a developed country [Italy (OR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.37–2.33)].

Conclusions

Our study suggested a possible association between H. pylori infection and the risk of CSX. Its pathogenicity is stronger in middle-aged individuals and some developing countries. However, more studies are needed to further investigate whether early eradication of H. pylori can reduce the incidence rate of CSX, especially in middle-aged individuals and some developing countries.

Comparing the Conventional and Balloon-Guided Catheter-Assisted SWIM Technology for the Treatment of Acute Ischemic Stroke

Objective

Acute ischemic stroke is common in elder patients. This study investigates whether using the balloon-guided catheter (BGC) would improve the effect of stent thrombectomy (Solitaire FR With Intracranial Support Catheter for Mechanical Thrombectomy, SWIM) for patients with acute ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion (AIS-LVO).

Method

The data of 209 patients with AIS-LVO underwent SWIM were collected retrospectively from January 2017 to June 2021. These patients were divided into two groups based on whether they used of BGC or not. The propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was used to compare the differences in the first pass effect (FPE), successful recanalization, embolus escape rate, symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH), 90-day clinical favorable outcome, 90-day all-cause mortality, and complications in the patients treated with SWIM combined with balloon-guided catheter or conventional catheter.

Results

Among the 209 patients, 44 patients were treated with BGC and 165 patients were not. After matching, a total of 111 patients were included. The results showed that there was no statistical difference in FPE (35.1% in non-BGC group compared to 24.3% in BGC group, matched RR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.24–1.44), successful recanalization (89.2 vs. 91.9%, matched RR, 1.37; 95%CI, 0.34–5.51), embolus escape (6.8 vs. 8.1%, matched RR, 1.22; 95%CI, 0.28–5.40), sICH (8.1 vs. 13.5%; matched RR, 1.77; 95%CI 0.50–6.24), 90-day clinical favorable outcome (48.7 vs. 54.1%, matched RR, 1.11; 95%CI 0.51–2.46), 90-day all-cause mortality (17.6 vs. 21.6%, matched RR, 1.29; 95%CI 0.48–3.47), and the incidence of complications (6.8 vs. 5.4%, matched RR, 0.79 95%CI 0.15–4.27). These results indicate that using SWIM as the first-line treatment for patients with AIS-LVO, there is no statistical significance in FPE, final successful recanalization, distal emboli, sICH, procedural time, 90-day favorable outcome, 90-day mortality, and complications with or without BGC.

Conclusion

Balloon-guided catheter does not affect the result of using SWIM as the first-line treatment for patients with AIS-LVO. Our results will guide daily practice, with the adoption of the use of a guided catheter without a balloon.

Sestrin2 attenuates renal damage by regulating Hippo pathway in diabetic nephropathy

Glomerular mesangial cell proliferation and extracellular matrix accumulation contribute to the progression of diabetic nephropathy (DN). As a conserved stress-inducible protein, sestrin2 (Sesn2) plays critical role in the regulation of oxidative stress, inflammation, autophagy, metabolism, and endoplasmic reticulum stress. In this study, we investigated the role of Sesn2 on renal damage in diabetic kidney using transgenic mice overexpressing Sesn2 and the effect of Sesn2 on mesangial cell proliferation and extracellular matrix accumulation in diabetic conditions and the possible molecular mechanisms involved. Sesn2 overexpression improved renal function and decreased glomerular hypertrophy, albuminuria, mesangial expansion, extracellular matrix accumulation, and TGF-β1 expression, as well as oxidative stress in diabetic mice. In vitro experiments, using human mesangial cells (HMCs), revealed that Sesn2 overexpression inhibited high glucose (HG)-induced proliferation, fibronectin and collagen IV production, and ROS generation. Meanwhile, Sesn2 overexpression restored phosphorylation levels of Lats1 and YAP and inhibited TEAD1 expression. Inhibition of Lats1 accelerated HG-induced proliferation and expression of fibronectin and collagen IV. Verteporfin, an inhibitor of YAP, suppressed HG-induced proliferation and expression of fibronectin and collagen IV. However, Sesn2 overexpression reversed Lats1 deficiency-induced Lats1 and YAP phosphorylation, nuclear expression levels of YAP and TEAD1, and proliferation and fibronectin and collagen IV expressions in HMCs exposed to HG. In addition, antioxidant NAC or tempol treatment promoted phosphorylation of Lats1 and YAP and inhibited TEAD1 expression, proliferation, and fibronectin and collagen IV accumulation in HG-treated HMCs. Taken together, Sesn2 overexpression inhibited mesangial cell proliferation and fibrosis via regulating Hippo pathway in diabetic nephropathy. Induction of Sesn2 may be a potential therapeutic target in diabetic nephropathy.

The age-dependent association of risk factors with pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer presents as advanced disease in >80% of patients; yet, appropriate ages to consider prevention and early detection strategies are poorly defined. We investigated age-specific associations and attributable risks of pancreatic cancer for established modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We included 167 483 participants from two prospective US cohort studies with 1190 incident cases of pancreatic cancer during >30 years of follow-up; 5107 pancreatic cancer cases and 8845 control participants of European ancestry from a completed multicenter genome-wide association study (GWAS); and 248 893 pancreatic cancer cases documented in the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Across different age categories, we investigated cigarette smoking, obesity, diabetes, height, and non-O blood group in the prospective cohorts; weighted polygenic risk score of 22 previously identified single nucleotide polymorphisms in the GWAS; and male sex and black race in the SEER Program.

RESULTS

In the prospective cohorts, all five risk factors were more strongly associated with pancreatic cancer risk among younger participants, with associations attenuated among those aged >70 years. The hazard ratios comparing participants with three to five risk factors with those with no risk factors were 9.24 [95% confidence interval (CI) 4.11-20.77] among those aged ≤60 years, 3.00 (95% CI 1.85-4.86) among those aged 61-70 years, and 1.46 (95% CI 1.10-1.94) among those aged >70 years (Pheterogeneity = 3×10-5). These factors together were related to 65.6%, 49.7%, and 17.2% of incident pancreatic cancers in these age groups, respectively. In the GWAS and the SEER Program, the associations with the polygenic risk score, male sex, and black race were all stronger among younger individuals (Pheterogeneity ≤0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Established risk factors are more strongly associated with earlier-onset pancreatic cancer, emphasizing the importance of age at initiation for cancer prevention and control programs targeting this highly lethal malignancy.

Effects of Tellurium Doping on Environmental Stability and Luminous Performance of CsPbBr3 Quantum Dots

The effects of elemental tellurium doping and decorating on the photoluminescence quantum yield (PL QY) and the environmental stability of the CsPbBr₃ quantum dots (QDs) have been systematically studied. The PL spectra blue-shifts from 520 to 464 nm gradually with the increase in the amount of Te, and the full width at half-maximum (FWHM) increases from 20 to 62 nm and decreases to 27 nm accordingly. The morphology of the untreated samples has a rectangular shape with distinct boundaries, whereas the Te-doped samples have a semi-core-shell structure with partially coated CsPb₂Br₅ after tellurium doping. Furthermore, the apparent size of the nanocomposites increases to 20 nm, but the crystal size of the core decreases slightly according to the broadened peaks of X-ray diffraction (XRD). Further investigation by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy shows that the binding energy of Pb-Br increases and Pb-Te bonds are formed in Te-doped samples, which can enhance the stability of QDs from the view of strengthening the chemical bonds and inhibiting the detaching behavior of bromine under moisture. At the nominal content of Pb/Te = 1:0.4, the thermal decomposition temperature of the QDs increases from 300 to 500 °C; the maximum of PL QY increases to 70% for the 1:0.4 sample and the relative PL peak intensity maintains 50% of the initial value after a 60 h aging simulation. Finally, the nanocomposite materials are fabricated into a white light-emitting device (WLED). Under the illumination of a commercial GaN chip, the device shows a good Commission Internationale de lEclairage (CIE) color coordination of (0.3291,0.3318).

Survey of the American Society of Neuroradiology Membership on the Use and Value of Intracranial Vessel Wall MRI

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Intracranial vessel wall MR imaging is an emerging technique for intracranial vasculopathy assessment. Our aim was to investigate intracranial vessel wall MR imaging use by the American Society of Neuroradiology (ASNR) members at their home institutions, including indications and barriers to implementation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The ASNR Vessel Wall Imaging Study Group survey on vessel wall MR imaging use, frequency, applications, MR imaging systems and field strength used, protocol development approaches, vendor engagement, reasons for not using vessel wall MR imaging, ordering-provider interest, and impact on clinical care, was distributed to the ASNR membership between April 2 and August 30, 2019.

RESULTS

There were 532 responses; 79 were excluded due to nonresponse and 42 due to redundant institutional responses, leaving 411 responses. Fifty-two percent indicated that their institution performs vessel wall MR imaging, with 71.5% performed at least 1-2 times/month, most frequently on 3T MR imaging, and 87.7% using 3D sequences. Protocols most commonly included were T1-weighted pre- and postcontrast and TOF-MRA; 60.6% had limited contributions from vendors or were still in protocol development. Vasculopathy differentiation (94.4%), cryptogenic stroke (41.3%), aneurysm (38.0%), and atherosclerosis (37.6%) evaluation were the most common indications. For those not performing vessel wall MR imaging, interpretation (53.1%) or technical (46.4%) expertise, knowledge of applications (50.5%), or limitations of clinician (56.7%) or radiologist (49.0%) interest were the most common reasons. If technical/expertise obstacles were overcome, 56.4% of those not performing vessel wall MR imaging indicated that they would perform it. Ordering providers most frequently inquiring about vessel wall MR imaging were from stroke neurology (56.5%) and neurosurgery (25.1%), while 34.3% indicated that no providers had inquired.

CONCLUSIONS

More than 50% of neuroradiology groups use vessel wall MR imaging for intracranial vasculopathy characterization and differentiation, emphasizing the need for additional technical and educational support, especially as clinical vessel wall MR imaging implementation continues to grow.

Abstract LB550: AI predicts risk of pancreatic cancer from disease trajectories using real-world electronic health records (EHRs) from Denmark and the USA

Pancreatic cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide with increasing incidence. Early diagnosis of pancreatic cancer is a key challenge, as the disease is typically detected at a late stage. However, patients who present with early-stage disease can be cured by a combination of surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Thus, a better understanding of the risk factors for pancreatic cancer and detection at early stages has great potential to improve patient survival and reduce overall mortality from this aggressive malignancy. Here we exploit the power of advanced machine learning (ML) technology by focusing on the time sequence of clinical events and by predicting the risk of cancer occurrence over a multi-year time interval. This investigation was initially carried out using the Danish National Patient Registry (DNPR) and data which covers 41 years (1977 to 2018) of clinical records for 8.6 million patients, of which about 40,000 had a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. To maximize predictive information extraction from these records we tested a range of ML methods, ranging from regression methods and ML without or with time dependence to time series methods such as GRU and Transformer. We explicitly train machine learning models on the time sequence of diseases in patient clinical histories and test the ability to predict cancer occurrence in time intervals of 3 to 60 months after risk assessment. For cancer occurrence within 36 months, the performance of the best model (AUROC=0.88; OR=47.5 for 20% recall and OR=159.0 for 10% recall), substantially exceeds that of a model without time information, even when disease events within a 3 month window before cancer diagnosis are excluded from training (AUROC[3m]=0.84). Independent training and testing on the Boston dataset reaches comparable performance (AUROC=0.87, OR=112.0 for 20% recall and OR=162.4 for 10% recall). We also extract from the AI machine an estimate of the contribution to prediction of individual disease features, e.g., obesity and diabetes. These results raise the state-of-the-art level of performance of cancer risk prediction on real-world data sets and provide support for the design of future screening trials for high-risk patients. AI on real-world clinical records has the potential to shift focus from treatment of late-stage to early-stage cancer, benefiting patients by improving lifespan and quality of life. We expect further increases in prediction accuracy with the availability of data beyond disease codes, such as prescriptions, laboratory values, and images.

Citation Format: Davide Placido, Bo Yuan, Jessica X. Hjaltelin, Amalie D. Haue, Piotr J. Chmura, Chen Yuan, Jihye Kim, Renato Umeton, Gregory Antell, Alexander Chowdhury, Alexandra Franz, Lauren Brais, Elizabeth Andrews, Debora S. Marks, Aviv Regev, Peter Kraft, Brian M. Wolpin, Michael Rosenthal, Søren Brunak, Chris Sander. AI predicts risk of pancreatic cancer from disease trajectories using real-world electronic health records (EHRs) from Denmark and the USA [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2022; 2022 Apr 8-13. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(12_Suppl):Abstract nr LB550.

Abstract 28: New onset of type 2 diabetes after colorectal cancer diagnosis: Results from three prospective US cohort studies, systematic review, and meta-analysis

Background: Limited data indicate that patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) are at higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D). We prospectively examined the risk of T2D between individuals with and without CRC in three large cohorts and conducted a meta-analysis.

Methods: We assessed the diagnosis of CRC and T2D among 111 485 women from the Nurses' Health Study, 112 958 women from the Nurses' Health Study II, and 46 581 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. We used multivariable Cox regression with time-varying covariates to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) of T2D in relation to CRC diagnosis. We further performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

Findings: Up to 36 years of follow-up (6.9 million person-years), we documented 3402 incident CRC cases and 26 469 T2D cases. Compared to non-CRC individuals, those with CRC were more likely to develop T2D (multivariable-adjusted HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.05-1.38). The association was most evident for individuals with fewer risk factors for T2D. In the meta-analysis of seven cohort studies (1 061 744 participants), CRC was associated with higher T2D risk (meta-analysis HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.11-1.31, I2=57.9%). By CRC duration, a statistically significant association was observed in the first 10 years but not after 10 years of CRC diagnosis (≤5 years, meta-analysis HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.27-1.36; 5.1-10 years, 1.14 [1.04-1.25]; &gt;10 years, 1.14 [0.91-1.37]).

Interpretations: CRC was associated with increased T2D risk, especially in the first ten years after CRC diagnosis. Our findings highlight the importance of T2D prevention for CRC survivorship care.

Citation Format: Hongmei Zeng, Chen Yuan, Jakub Morze, Ruiying Fu, Kai Wang, Liang Wang, Feng Sun, John S. Ji, Edward L. Giovannucci, Mingyang Song. New onset of type 2 diabetes after colorectal cancer diagnosis: Results from three prospective US cohort studies, systematic review, and meta-analysis [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2022; 2022 Apr 8-13. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(12_Suppl):Abstract nr 28.

Abstract 5891: The age-dependent association of risk factors with pancreatic cancer

Importance: Pancreatic cancer presents as advanced disease in &gt;80% of patients; yet, appropriate ages to consider prevention and early detection strategies are poorly defined.

Objective: To investigate age-specific associations and attributable risks of pancreatic cancer for established modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors.

Design, Setting, and Participants: We included 167,483 participants from 2 prospective U.S. cohort studies with 1190 incident cases of pancreatic cancer identified during &gt;30 years of follow-up; 5107 pancreatic cancer cases and 8845 control participants of European ancestry from a completed multicenter genome-wide association study (GWAS); and 248,893 pancreatic cancer cases documented in the U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program.

Exposures: Across different age categories, we investigated cigarette smoking, obesity, diabetes, height, and non-O blood group in the prospective cohorts; weighted polygenic risk score of 22 previously identified single nucleotide polymorphisms in the GWAS; and male sex and Black race in the SEER program.

Main outcomes and measures: Risk of developing pancreatic cancer by age evaluated by Cox, logistic, or Poisson regression, as determined by the study design.

Results: In the prospective cohorts, all 5 risk factors were more strongly associated with pancreatic cancer risk among younger participants, with associations greatly attenuated among those over 70 years. The HRs comparing participants with 3-5 risk factors to those with no risk factors were 9.24 (95% CI, 4.11-20.77) among those aged ≤60 years, 3.00 (95% CI, 1.85-4.86) among those aged 61-70 years, and 1.46 (95% CI, 1.10-1.94) among those over 70 years (Pheterogeneity = 3×10-5). These factors together were related to 65.6%, 49.7%, and 17.2% of incident pancreatic cancers in these age groups, respectively. In the GWAS, the polygenic risk score was most strongly associated with pancreatic cancer risk among those aged ≤60 years, with lesser associations identified in older participants (Pheterogeneity = .01). In the SEER Program, male sex and Black race were also more strongly associated with pancreatic cancer risk among younger individuals (Pheterogeneity &lt; 1×10-8).

Conclusions and relevance: Inherited and lifestyle factors are more strongly associated with earlier-onset pancreatic cancer, emphasizing the importance of age at initiation for cancer prevention and control programs targeting this highly lethal malignancy.

Citation Format: Chen Yuan, Jihye Kim, Qiao-Li Wang, Alice A. Lee, Ana Babic, PanScan/PanC4 I-III Consortium, Laufey T. Amundadottir, Alison P. Klein, Donghui Li, Marjorie L. McCullough, Gloria M. Petersen, Harvey A. Risch, Rachael Z. Stolzenberg-Solomon, Kimberly Perez, Kimmie Ng, Edward L. Giovannucci, Meir J. Stampfer, Peter Kraft, Brian M. Wolpin. The age-dependent association of risk factors with pancreatic cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2022; 2022 Apr 8-13. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(12_Suppl):Abstract nr 5891.

Abstract 5934: Weight loss and subsequent cancer diagnosis: A prospective cohort study

Background: Weight loss is a common symptom in patients with cancer. However, little is known about how much weight loss and over what time period weight loss precedes cancer diagnosis. Herein, we evaluate the association between weight loss and subsequent 2-year cancer diagnosis using repeatedly measured weight data in two large prospective cohorts.

Methods: The analysis included 111,891 US women from the Nurses’ Health Study and 45,498 US men from the Health Professional Follow-up Study, who were enrolled in 1978 and 1988, respectively, and followed through 2012, and who were cancer-free and ≥40 years old at study entry. Current weight and lifestyle information were assessed every 2 years by questionnaire, and weight change in the previous 2 years was calculated by comparing two consecutive questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for subsequent risk of cancer diagnosis according to weight change percentage. We also examined 20-year trajectories of body mass index (BMI) before cancer diagnosis.

Results: During 4.1 million person-years of follow-up, we documented 30,441 incident cancers. Participants with recent weight loss were at increased risk for cancer diagnosis in the subsequent 2 years (Ptrend &lt;0.0001). Compared with participants without weight loss, those who had a weight loss of 5-10% or &gt;10% had a multivariable-adjusted HR for total cancer of 1.09 (95% CI, 1.04-1.13) and 1.17 (95% CI, 1.10-1.24), respectively. For individual cancer types, increased weight loss was associated with a subsequent cancer diagnosis of esophagus, liver, pancreas, leukemia, stomach, myeloma, lung, colorectal, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (all Ptrend &lt;0.005). Comparing participants with weight loss of &gt;10% to those without weight loss, multivariable-adjusted HRs were 4.22 (95% CI, 2.50-7.13) for esophageal cancer, 3.30 (95% CI, 1.65-6.61) for liver cancer, 2.46 (95% CI, 1.84-3.30) for pancreatic cancer, 2.40 (95% CI, 1.59-3.61) for leukemia, 2.26 (95% CI, 1.32-3.87) for stomach cancer, 1.80 (95% CI, 1.14-2.83) for myeloma, 1.45 (95% CI, 1.22-1.73) for lung cancer, 1.38 (95% CI, 1.14-1.66) for colorectal cancer, and 1.35 (95% CI, 1.06-1.72) for non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The 20-year trajectory of BMI indicated that most weight loss occurred in the 2 years before cancer diagnosis, with the magnitude of weight loss increasing closer to the time of subsequent cancer diagnosis.

Conclusion: Recent weight loss of &gt;10% predicts elevated risk of cancer diagnosis in the forthcoming 2 years, particularly for cancers of the upper gastrointestinal tract, hematological system, colorectum, and lung.

Citation Format: Qiao-Li Wang, Ana Babic, Michael H. Rosenthal, Alice A. Lee, Yin Zhang, Xuehong Zhang, Mingyang Song, Leandro F. Rezende, Dong Hoon Lee, Leah Biller, Kimmie Ng, Andrew T. Chan, Meir J. Stampfer, Edward L. Giovannucci, Peter Kraft, Chen Yuan, Brian M. Wolpin. Weight loss and subsequent cancer diagnosis: A prospective cohort study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2022; 2022 Apr 8-13. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(12_Suppl):Abstract nr 5934.

Sugar-sweetened beverage and sugar consumption and colorectal cancer incidence and mortality according to anatomic subsite

BACKGROUND

Recent preclinical research strongly suggests that dietary sugars can enhance colorectal tumorigenesis by direct action, particularly in the proximal colon that unabsorbed fructose reaches.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to examine long-term consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and total fructose in relation to incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC) by anatomic subsite.

METHODS

We followed 121,111 participants from 2 prospective US cohort studies, the Nurses' Health Study (1984-2014) and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (1986-2014), for incident CRC and related death. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to compute HRs and 95% CIs.

RESULTS

During follow-up, we documented 2733 incident cases of CRC with a known anatomic location, of whom 901 died from CRC. Positive associations of SSB and total fructose intakes with cancer incidence and mortality were observed in the proximal colon but not in the distal colon or rectum (Pheterogeneity ≤ 0.03). SSB consumption was associated with a statistically significant increase in the incidence of proximal colon cancer (HR per 1-serving/d increment: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.34; Ptrend = 0.02) and a more pronounced elevation in the mortality of proximal colon cancer (HR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.72; Ptrend = 0.002). Similarly, total fructose intake was associated with increased incidence and mortality of proximal colon cancer (HRs per 25-g/d increment: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.35; and 1.42; 95% CI: 1.12, 1.79, respectively). Moreover, SSB and total fructose intakes during the most recent 10 y, rather than those from a more distant period, were associated with increased incidence of proximal colon cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

SSB and total fructose consumption were associated with increased incidence and mortality of proximal colon cancer, particularly during later stages of tumorigenesis.

Application of explainable machine learning for real-time safety analysis toward a connected vehicle environment

Due to the difficulty of obtaining traffic flow data and conflicts simultaneously, conflict-based analysis using macroscopic traffic features is much less studied. This research aims to analyze real-time safety by a disaggregate study and explore the benefit of the connected vehicle (CV) for real-time safety evaluation. To avoid the endogeneity problem regarding conflicts and traffic features in regression models, machine learning is employed to obtain a reliable and practical real-time safety model. The results show that the Random Forest outperforms eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine and Adaptive Boosting models, achieving the best performance with the highest AUC of 0.827. For a deep understanding of conflict mechanisms, the explainable machine learning method SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation) is introduced to improve the model interpretability providing insights into the impacts of traffic flow features. Lane difference regarding average speed is found to have the most significant impacts on real-time safety. Speed variation, the proportion of trucks and traffic volume are associated with conflict occurrence. Further analysis highlights that the impacts of traffic features are heterogeneous and there may exist specific patterns of paired features affecting real-time safety. Encouragingly, SHAP appears to be able to complement the traditional model with random components in terms of revealing heterogeneity. The explainable machine learning can also provide a solid basis for discretizing continuous variables while previous studies perform discretization mainly based on prior knowledge and experience. The experimental result regarding CV Market Penetration Rate (CV-MPR) demonstrates that the model performance is gradually elevated with the increase of penetration rate. The initial stage of the CV market (20%, 40% CV-MPR) yields the most significant gains in real-time safety evaluation. These findings can be used beneficially in active traffic management.

Gene expression of vitamin D (VitD) pathway markers and survival in patients (Pts) with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC): CALGB/SWOG 80405 (Alliance)

3553

Background: Higher levels of plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D)] are associated with better outcomes in mCRC, but underlying biologic mechanisms are unknown. Key components of the VitD metabolic pathway include CYP27B1 (encodes 1-α-hydroxylase, converts 25(OH)D to active calcitriol), VitD receptor (VDR), and CYP24A1 (encodes 24-hydroxylase, degrades calcitriol and 25(OH)D into excreted metabolites). Since these factors may affect 25(OH)D levels and potentially mediate VitD activity in mCRC, we examined the relationship between tumoral gene expression (GEx) of CYP27B1, VDR, and CYP24A and pt outcome in a study nested in a randomized phase III trial of first-line chemotherapy plus biologics in mCRC pts, CALGB/SWOG 80405. Methods: We determined GEx of CYP27B1, VDR, and CYP24A1 by RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) of archival tumor samples using the Illumina TruSeq platform. Primary endpoints were overall (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for prognostic and molecular characteristics. Results: 562 pts with RNA-Seq data were included. Pts with higher CYP27B1 expression (>median) were less likely to have BRAF wild type (WT) (79% vs 90%) compared to pts with lower expression (p=0.0007). Pts with higher VDR expression (>quartile 1 [Q1]) were younger (median age 59 vs 62 years; p=0.03), more likely to have left-sided (63% vs 46%; p=0.0005) and BRAF WT tumors (89% vs 70%; p<0.0001), and less likely to have RAS WT tumors (70% vs 80%; p=0.02) compared to pts with lower VDR. Pts with higher CYP24A1 expression (>median) were more likely to have left-sided tumors compared to pts with lower expression (63% vs 54%; p=0.03). On multivariable analysis, pts with higher CYP27B1 expression had significantly improved OS (HR 0.84; 95% CI, 0.75-0.93; p=0.002) and PFS (HR 0.89; 95% CI, 0.80-0.99; p=0.04). Higher VDR expression (up to Q1) was associated with significantly improved PFS (HR 0.69; 95% CI, 0.53-0.91; p=0.007) but not OS (HR 0.85; 95% CI, 0.66-1.09; p=0.20). Above Q1, this improvement attenuated. Higher CYP24A1 GEx was not associated with improved OS (HR 0.98; 95% CI, 0.88-1.08; p=0.66) or PFS (HR 0.98; 95% CI, 0.89-1.08; p=0.68). We found no significant interactions between GEx of CYP27B1, VDR, or CYP24A with baseline plasma 25(OH)D levels (p for interaction ≥0.10 for all). Conclusions: Our findings suggest an association between GEx of VitD pathway markers, particularly CYP27B1 and VDR, and survival in pts with mCRC, lending biologic plausibility to a role of VitD in CRC pathogenesis. Future studies are needed to confirm these findings and elucidate underlying mechanisms of action. Clinical trial information: NCT00265850 .

Functional deficiency of succinate dehydrogenase promotes tumorigenesis and development of clear cell renal cell carcinoma through weakening of ferroptosis

Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is the most common subtype of renal carcinomas, with high mortality and poor prognoses worldwide. Succinate dehydrogenase (SDH) consists of four nuclear-encoded subunits and it is the only complex involved in both the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle and oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS). Previous studies have shown decreased SDH activity in ccRCC. However, the role and underlying molecular mechanisms of SDH in ccRCC initiation and development remain unclear. In the present study, pan-cancer analysis of SDH gene expression was analyzed and the relationship between SDH gene expression and clinicopathological parameters was assessed using different databases. cBioPortal, UACLAN, and Tumor Immune Estimation Resource (TIMER) were subsequently utilized to analyze genetic alterations, methylation, and immune cell infiltration of SDH genes in ccRCC patients. We found SDHs were significantly downregulated in ccRCC tissues and correlated with ccRCC progression. Increased methylation and high SDH promoter mutation rates may be the cause of reduced expression of SDHs in ccRCC. Moreover, the interaction network showed that SDH genes were correlated with ferroptosis-related genes. We further demonstrated that SDH inhibition dampened oxidative phosphorylation, reduced ferroptotic events, and restored ferroptotic cell death, characterized by eliminated mitochondrial ROS levels, decreased cellular ROS and diminished peroxide accumulation. Collectively, this study provides new insights into the regulatory role of SDH in the carcinogenesis and progression of ccRCC, introducing a potential target for advanced antitumor therapy through ferroptosis.

Simultaneous glutamine metabolism and PD-L1 inhibition to enhance suppression of triple-negative breast cancer

Blockade of programmed cell death 1 ligand (PD-L1) has been used to treat triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), and various strategies are under investigation to improve the treatment response rate. Inhibition of glutamine metabolism can reduce the massive consumption of glutamine by tumor cells and meet the demand for glutamine by lymphocytes in tumors, thereby improving the anti-tumor effect on the PD-L1 blockade therapy. Here, molybdenum disulfide (MoS2) was employed to simultaneously deliver anti-PDL1 antibody (aPDL1) and V9302 to boost the anti-tumor immune response in TNBC cells. The characterization results show that MoS2 has a dispersed lamellar structure with a size of about 181 nm and a size of 232 nm after poly (L-lysine) (PLL) modification, with high stability and biocompatibility. The loading capacity of aPDL1 and V9302 are 3.84% and 24.76%, respectively. V9302 loaded MoS2 (MoS2-V9302) can effectively kill 4T1 cells and significantly reduce glutamine uptake of tumor cells. It slightly increases CD8+ cells in the tumor and promotes CD8+ cells from the tumor edge into the tumor core. In vivo studies demonstrate that the combination of aPDL1 and V9302 (MoS2-aPDL1-V9302) can strongly inhibit the growth of TNBC 4T1 tumors. Interestingly, after the treatment of MoS2-aPDL1-V9302, glutamine levels in tumor interstitial fluid increased. Subsequently, subtypes of cytotoxic T cells (CD8+) in the tumors were analyzed according to two markers of T cell activation, CD69, and CD25, and the results reveal a marked increase in the proportion of activated T cells. The levels of cytokines in the corresponding tumor interstitial fluid are also significantly increased. Additionally, during the treatment, the body weights of the mice remain stable, the main indicators of liver and kidney function in the blood do not increase significantly, and there are no obvious lesions in the main organs, indicating low systemic toxicity. In conclusion, our study provides new insights into glutamine metabolism in the tumor microenvironment affects immune checkpoint blockade therapy in TNBC, and highlights the potential clinical implications of combining glutamine metabolism inhibition with immune checkpoint blockade in the treatment of TNBC.

A label-free photoelectrochemical sensor of S, N co-doped graphene quantum dot (S, N-GQD)-modified electrode for ultrasensitive detection of bisphenol A

S, N co-doped graphene quantum dot (S, N-GQD) materials have been composited via a one-pot pattern and used as photosensitive materials to construct a label-free photoelectrochemical (PEC) sensor. The PEC experiments show an enhanced photocurrent response toward Bisphenol A (BPA) sensing due to the increased charge transfer rate and the enhanced absorption of visible light. Compared with dark conditions, the photocurrent signal (- 0.2 V vs. SCE) is greatly increased because of the effective oxidation of BPA by photogenerated holes and the rapid electron transfer of S, N-GQDs on the PEC sensing platform. Under optimal conditions linear current response to BPA is in two ranges of 0.12-5 µM and 5-40 µM. The limit of detection is 0.04 µM (S/N = 3). The designed sensor has enduring stability and admirable interference immunity. It  provides an alternative approach for BPA determination in real samples with recoveries of 99.3-103% and  RSD of 2.0-4.1%.