Assessment of the long-term efficacy of a dengue vaccine against symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue disease by baseline dengue serostatus

CYD-TDV is a live, attenuated, tetravalent dengue vaccine licensed in 21 countries. We undertook a post-hoc analysis of the long-term efficacy of CYD-TDV during the surveillance expansion phase (SEP) of two Phase III studies (CYD14 in the Asia-Pacific region; CYD15 in Latin America). The SEP included approximately Year 5 and the entire Year 6 of follow-up after the first study injection. Vaccine efficacy against symptomatic virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD) was assessed by participant age (any age, ≥9, <9, 2-5, and 6-8 years at the time of the first injection) and baseline dengue serostatus using a case-cohort framework. Baseline dengue serostatus was estimated by several methods including logistic regression-based multiple imputation (MI) to predict PRNT₅₀ with key predictor being Month 13 (M13) anti-non-structural protein (NS1) titers; superlearner-based imputation by targeted minimum loss based estimation (TMLE); and M13 anti-NS1 titer threshold 9 EU/mL (NS1 M13). There were 436 symptomatic VCD cases (CYD14: n = 360; CYD15: n = 76) during the SEP. Vaccine efficacy in seropositive participants aged ≥9 years was assessed by MI (47.9% [95% CI 19.4; 66.3]), TMLE (53.0% [95% CI 23; 71]), and NS1 M13 (52.4% [95% CI 30.8; 67.3]). Vaccine efficacy estimates were lower in seropositive individuals aged <9 years compared with individuals ≥9 years. Among seropositive individuals aged 2-5 and 6-8 years, vaccine efficacy across the different approaches for assessing serostatus ranged from between -25.7 to 36.9% and 44.4 to 64.7% during the SEP, respectively. In the pooled CYD14/15 data of seronegatives, vaccine efficacy was null to modest. In conclusion, CYD-TDV was shown to maintain efficacy against symptomatic VCD in seropositive participants aged ≥9 years up to six years after the first dose. Persistence of efficacy was also observed in seropositive participants aged 6-8 years.

Mathematical modeling to reveal breakthrough mechanisms in the HIV Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials

The ongoing Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials will uncover whether passive infusion of the broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) VRC01 can protect against HIV acquisition. Previous statistical simulations indicate these trials may be partially protective. In that case, it will be crucial to identify the mechanism of breakthrough infections. To that end, we developed a mathematical modeling framework to simulate the AMP trials and infer the breakthrough mechanisms using measurable trial outcomes. This framework combines viral dynamics with antibody pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, and will be generally applicable to forthcoming bNAb prevention trials. We fit our model to human viral load data (RV217). Then, we incorporated VRC01 neutralization using serum pharmacokinetics (HVTN 104) and in vitro pharmacodynamics (LANL CATNAP database). We systematically explored trial outcomes by reducing in vivo potency and varying the distribution of sensitivity to VRC01 in circulating strains. We found trial outcomes could be used in a clinical trial regression model (CTRM) to reveal whether partially protective trials were caused by large fractions of VRC01-resistant (IC50>50 μg/mL) circulating strains or rather a global reduction in VRC01 potency against all strains. The former mechanism suggests the need to enhance neutralizing antibody breadth; the latter suggests the need to enhance VRC01 delivery and/or in vivo binding. We will apply the clinical trial regression model to data from the completed trials to help optimize future approaches for passive delivery of anti-HIV neutralizing antibodies.

Infusions of broadly neutralizing antibodies are currently being tested as a novel HIV prevention modality. To help interpret the results of these antibody mediated prevention (AMP) studies we developed a mathematical modeling framework. The approach combines antibody potency and drug levels with models of HIV viral dynamics, which will be generally applicable to future studies. Through simulating these clinical trials, we found trial outcomes can be used in combination to infer whether breakthrough infections are caused by large fractions of antibody-resistant circulating strains or some reduction in potency against all strains. This distinction helps to focus future trials on enhancing neutralizing antibody breadth or antibody delivery and/or in vivo binding.

A regularized estimation approach for case-cohort periodic follow-up studies with an application to HIV vaccine trials

This paper discusses regression analysis of the failure time data arising from case-cohort periodic follow-up studies, and one feature of such data, which makes their analysis much more difficult, is that they are usually interval-censored rather than right-censored. Although some methods have been developed for general failure time data, there does not seem to exist an established procedure for the situation considered here. To address the problem, we present a semiparametric regularized procedure and develop a simple algorithm for the implementation of the proposed method. In addition, unlike some existing procedures for similar situations, the proposed procedure is shown to have the oracle property, and an extensive simulation is conducted and it suggests that the presented approach seems to work well for practical situations. The method is applied to an HIV vaccine trial that motivated this study.

HIV-1 Vaccine Sequences Impact V1V2 Antibody Responses: A Comparison of Two Poxvirus Prime gp120 Boost Vaccine Regimens

In the RV144 trial, vaccine-induced V1V2 IgG correlated with decreased HIV-1 risk. We investigated circulating antibody specificities in two phase 1 poxvirus prime-protein boost clinical trials conducted in South Africa: HVTN 097 (subtype B/E) and HVTN 100 (subtype C). With cross-subtype peptide microarrays and multiplex binding assays, we probed the magnitude and breadth of circulating antibody responses to linear variable loop 2 (V2) and conformational V1V2 specificities. Antibodies targeting the linear V2 epitope, a correlate of decreased HIV-1 risk in RV144, were elicited up to 100% and 61% in HVTN 097 and HVTN 100, respectively. Despite higher magnitude of envelope-specific responses in HVTN 100 compared to HVTN 097 (p’s < 0.001), the magnitude and positivity for V2 linear epitope and V1V2 proteins were significantly lower in HVTN 100 compared to HVTN 097. Meanwhile, responses to other major linear epitopes including the variable 3 (V3) and constant 5 (C5) epitopes were higher in HVTN 100 compared to HVTN 097. Our data reveal substantial differences in the circulating antibody specificities induced by vaccination in these two canarypox prime-protein boost trials. Our findings suggest that the choice of viral sequences in prime-boost vaccine regimens, and potentially adjuvants and immunogen dose, influence the elicitation of V2-specific antibodies.

Safety and immune responses after a 12-month booster in healthy HIV-uninfected adults in HVTN 100 in South Africa: A randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial of ALVAC-HIV (vCP2438) and bivalent subtype C gp120/MF59 vaccines

BACKGROUND

HVTN 100 evaluated the safety and immunogenicity of an HIV subtype C pox-protein vaccine regimen, investigating a 12-month booster to extend vaccine-induced immune responses.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A phase 1-2 randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial enrolled 252 participants (210 vaccine/42 placebo; median age 23 years; 43% female) between 9 February 2015 and 26 May 2015. Vaccine recipients received ALVAC-HIV (vCP2438) alone at months 0 and 1 and with bivalent subtype C gp120/MF59 at months 3, 6, and 12. Antibody (IgG, IgG3 binding, and neutralizing) and CD4+ T-cell (expressing interferon-gamma, interleukin-2, and CD40 ligand) responses were evaluated at month 6.5 for all participants and at months 12, 12.5, and 18 for a randomly selected subset. The primary analysis compared IgG binding antibody (bAb) responses and CD4+ T-cell responses to 3 vaccine-matched antigens at peak (month 6.5 versus 12.5) and durability (month 12 versus 18) timepoints; IgG responses to CaseA2_gp70_V1V2.B, a primary correlate of risk in RV144, were also compared at these same timepoints. Secondary and exploratory analyses compared IgG3 bAb responses, IgG bAb breadth scores, neutralizing antibody (nAb) responses, antibody-dependent cellular phagocytosis, CD4+ polyfunctionality responses, and CD4+ memory sub-population responses at the same timepoints. Vaccines were generally safe and well tolerated. During the study, there were 2 deaths (both in the vaccine group and both unrelated to study products). Ten participants became HIV-infected during the trial, 7% (3/42) of placebo recipients and 3% (7/210) of vaccine recipients. All 8 serious adverse events were unrelated to study products. Less waning of immune responses was seen after the fifth vaccination than after the fourth, with higher antibody and cellular response rates at month 18 than at month 12: IgG bAb response rates to 1086.C V1V2, 21.0% versus 9.7% (difference = 11.3%, 95% CI = 0.6%-22.0%, P = 0.039), and ZM96.C V1V2, 21.0% versus 6.5% (difference = 14.5%, 95% CI = 4.1%-24.9%, P = 0.004). IgG bAb response rates to all 4 primary V1V2 antigens were higher 2 weeks after the fifth vaccination than 2 weeks after the fourth vaccination: 87.7% versus 75.4% (difference = 12.3%, 95% CI = 1.7%-22.9%, P = 0.022) for 1086.C V1V2, 86.0% versus 63.2% (difference = 22.8%, 95% CI = 9.1%-36.5%, P = 0.001) for TV1c8.2.C V1V2, 67.7% versus 44.6% (difference = 23.1%, 95% CI = 10.4%-35.7%, P < 0.001) for ZM96.C V1V2, and 81.5% versus 60.0% (difference = 21.5%, 95% CI = 7.6%-35.5%, P = 0.002) for CaseA2_gp70_V1V2.B. IgG bAb response rates to the 3 primary vaccine-matched gp120 antigens were all above 90% at both peak timepoints, with no significant differences seen, except a higher response rate to ZM96.C gp120 at month 18 versus month 12: 64.5% versus 1.6% (difference = 62.9%, 95% CI = 49.3%-76.5%, P < 0.001). CD4+ T-cell response rates were higher at month 18 than month 12 for all 3 primary vaccine-matched antigens: 47.3% versus 29.1% (difference = 18.2%, 95% CI = 2.9%-33.4%, P = 0.021) for 1086.C, 61.8% versus 38.2% (difference = 23.6%, 95% CI = 9.5%-37.8%, P = 0.001) for TV1.C, and 63.6% versus 41.8% (difference = 21.8%, 95% CI = 5.1%-38.5%, P = 0.007) for ZM96.C, with no significant differences seen at the peak timepoints. Limitations were that higher doses of gp120 were not evaluated, this study was not designed to investigate HIV prevention efficacy, and the clinical significance of the observed immunological effects is uncertain.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, a 12-month booster of subtype C pox-protein vaccines restored immune responses, and slowed response decay compared to the 6-month vaccination.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02404311. South African National Clinical Trials Registry (SANCTR number: DOH--27-0215-4796).

Landscapes of binding antibody and T-cell responses to pox-protein HIV vaccines in Thais and South Africans

BACKGROUND

HIV vaccine trials routinely measure multiple vaccine-elicited immune responses to compare regimens and study their potential associations with protection. Here we employ unsupervised learning tools facilitated by a bidirectional power transformation to explore the multivariate binding antibody and T-cell response patterns of immune responses elicited by two pox-protein HIV vaccine regimens. Both regimens utilized a recombinant canarypox vector (ALVAC-HIV) prime and a bivalent recombinant HIV-1 Envelope glycoprotein 120 subunit boost. We hypothesized that within each trial, there were participant subgroups sharing similar immune responses and that their frequencies differed across trials.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We analyzed data from three trials-RV144 (NCT00223080), HVTN 097 (NCT02109354), and HVTN 100 (NCT02404311), the latter of which was pivotal in advancing the tested pox-protein HIV vaccine regimen to the HVTN 702 Phase 2b/3 efficacy trial. We found that bivariate CD4+ T-cell and anti-V1V2 IgG/IgG3 antibody response patterns were similar by age, sex-at-birth, and body mass index, but differed for the pox-protein clade AE/B alum-adjuvanted regimen studied in RV144 and HVTN 097 (PAE/B/alum) compared to the pox-protein clade C/C MF59-adjuvanted regimen studied in HVTN 100 (PC/MF59). Specifically, more PAE/B/alum recipients had low CD4+ T-cell and high anti-V1V2 IgG/IgG3 responses, and more PC/MF59 recipients had broad responses of both types. Analyses limited to "vaccine-matched" antigens suggested that some of the differences in responses between the regimens could have been due to antigens in the assays that did not match the vaccine immunogens. Our approach was also useful in identifying subgroups with unusually absent or high co-responses across assay types, flagging individuals for further characterization by functional assays. We also found that co-responses of anti-V1V2 IgG/IgG3 and CD4+ T cells had broad variability. As additional immune response assays are standardized and validated, we anticipate our framework will be increasingly valuable for multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our approach can be used to advance vaccine development objectives, including the characterization and comparison of candidate vaccine multivariate immune responses and improved design of studies to identify correlates of protection. For instance, results suggested that HVTN 702 will have adequate power to interrogate immune correlates involving anti-V1V2 IgG/IgG3 and CD4+ T-cell co-readouts, but will have lower power to study anti-gp120/gp140 IgG/IgG3 due to their lower dynamic ranges. The findings also generate hypotheses for future testing in experimental and computational analyses aimed at achieving a mechanistic understanding of vaccine-elicited immune response heterogeneity.

Generating Survival Times Using Cox Proportional Hazards Models with Cyclic and Piecewise Time-Varying Covariates

Time-to-event outcomes with cyclic time-varying covariates are frequently encountered in biomedical studies that involve multiple or repeated administrations of an intervention. In this paper, we propose approaches to generating event times for Cox proportional hazards models with both time-invariant covariates and a continuous cyclic and piecewise time-varying covariate. Values of the latter covariate change over time through cycles of interventions and its relationship with hazard differs before and after a threshold within each cycle. The simulations of data are based on inverting the cumulative hazard function and a log link function for relating the hazard function to the covariates. We consider closed-form derivations with the baseline hazard following the exponential, Weibull, or Gompertz distribution. We propose two simulation approaches: one based on simulating survival data under a single-dose regimen first before data are aggregated over multiple-dosing cycles and another based on simulating survival data directly under a multiple-dose regimen. We consider both fixed intervals and varying intervals of the drug administration schedule. The method's validity is assessed in simulation experiments. The results indicate that the proposed procedures perform well in generating data that conform to their cyclic nature and assumptions of the Cox proportional hazards model.

Bridging Efficacy of a Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine from Children/Adolescents to Adults in Highly Endemic Countries Based on Neutralizing Antibody Response

The CYD-TDV vaccine is licensed in multiple endemic countries based on vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue demonstrated in two phase 3 trials (CYD14, 2- to 14-year-olds, Asia; CYD15, 9- to 16-year-olds, Latin America). 50% plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT₅₀) titers at baseline and month 13 (post-vaccination) were associated with VE and may enable bridging VE to adults. Two phase 2 trials of CYD-TDV measured baseline and month 13 PRNT₅₀ titers: CYD22 (9- to 45-year-olds, Vietnam) and CYD47 (18- to 45-year-olds, India). 50% plaque reduction neutralization test distributions were compared between age cohorts, and four versions of an epidemiological bridging method were used to estimate VE against any serotype (dengue virus [DENV]-Any) and against each serotype over 25 months post first vaccination in a hypothetical CYD14 + CYD15 18- to 45-year-old cohort (bridging population 1) and in the actual CYD47 18- to 45-year-old cohort (bridging population 2). Baseline and month 13 geometric mean PRNT₅₀ titers to each serotype were significantly greater in 18- to 45-year-olds than 9- to 16-year-olds for all comparisons. The four methods estimated VE against DENV-Any at 75.3-86.0% (95% CIs spanning 52.5-100%) for bridging population 1 and 68.4-77.5% (95% CIs spanning 42.3-88.5%) for bridging population 2. The vaccine efficacy against serotype 1, 2, 3, and 4 was estimated at 56.9-76.9%, 68.3-85.8%, 91.4-95.0%, and 93.2-100% (bridging population 1) and 44.5-66.9%, 53.2-69.2%, 79.8-92.0%, and 90.6-95.0% (bridging population 2), respectively; thus, CYD-TDV would likely confer improved efficacy in adults than 9- to 16-year-olds. Using the same methods, we predicted VE against hospitalized DENV-Any over 72 months of follow-up, with estimates 59.1-73.5% (95% CIs spanning 40.9-92.2%) for bridging population 1 and 50.9-65.9% (95% CIs spanning 38.1-82.1%) for bridging population 2.

A Meta-analysis of Passive Immunization Studies Shows that Serum-Neutralizing Antibody Titer Associates with Protection against SHIV Challenge

Passively administered broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) targeting the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) have been shown to protect non-human primates (NHPs) against chimeric simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV) infection. With data from multiple non-human primate SHIV challenge studies that used single bNAbs, we conducted a meta-analysis to examine the relationship between predicted serum 50% neutralization titer (ID50) against the challenge virus and infection outcome. In a logistic model that adjusts for bNAb epitopes and challenge viruses, serum ID50 had a highly significant effect on infection risk (p < 0.001). The estimated ID50 to achieve 50%, 75%, and 95% protection was 91 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 55, 153), 219 (117, 410), and 685 (319, 1471), respectively. This analysis indicates that serum neutralizing titer against the relevant virus is a key parameter of protection and that protection from acquisition by a single bNAb might require substantial levels of neutralization at the time of exposure.

Analysis of generalized semiparametric mixed varying-coefficients models for longitudinal data

The generalized semiparametric mixed varying-coefficient effects model for longitudinal data can accommodate a variety of link functions and flexibly model different types of covariate effects, including time-constant, time-varying, and covariate-varying effects. The time-varying effects are unspecified functions of time and the covariate-varying effects are nonparametric functions of a possibly time-dependent exposure variable. A semiparametric estimation procedure is developed that uses local linear smoothing and profile weighted least squares, which requires smoothing in the two different and yet connected domains of time and the time-dependent exposure variable. The asymptotic properties of the estimators of both nonparametric and parametric effects are investigated. In addition, hypothesis testing procedures are developed to examine the covariate effects. The finite-sample properties of the proposed estimators and testing procedures are examined through simulations, indicating satisfactory performances. The proposed methods are applied to analyze the ACTG 244 clinical trial to investigate the effects of antiretroviral treatment switching in HIV-infected patients before and after developing the T215Y antiretroviral drug resistance mutation.

Vaccine-Induced Antibodies Mediate Higher Antibody-Dependent Cellular Cytotoxicity After Interleukin-15 Pretreatment of Natural Killer Effector Cells

The secondary analyses for correlates of risk of infection in the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine trial implicated vaccine-induced antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) responses in the observed protection, highlighting the importance of assessing such responses in ongoing and future HIV-1 vaccine trials. However, in vitro assays that detect ADCC activity in plasma from HIV-1 infected seropositive individuals are not always effective at detecting ADCC activity in plasma from HIV-1 vaccine recipients. In vivo, ADCC-mediating antibodies must operate at the site of infection, where effector cells are recruited and activated by a local milieu of chemokines and cytokines. Based on previous findings that interleukin 15 (IL-15) secretion increases during acute HIV-1 infection and enhances NK cell-mediated cytotoxicity, we hypothesized that IL-15 pretreatment of NK effector cells could be used to improve killing of infected cells by vaccine-induced antibodies capable of mediating ADCC. Using the HIV-1 infectious molecular clone (IMC)-infected target cell assay along with plasma samples from HIV-1 vaccine recipients, we found that IL-15 treatment of effector cells improved the ability of the vaccine-induced antibodies to recruit effector cells for ADCC. Through immunophenotyping experiments, we showed that this improved killing was likely due to IL-15 mediated activation of NK effector cells and higher intracellular levels of perforin and granzyme B in the IL-15 pretreated NK cells. We also found that using a 4-fold dilution series of plasma and subtraction of pre-vaccination responses resulted in lowest response rates among placebo recipients and significant separation between treatment groups. This represents the first attempt to utilize IL-15-treated effector cells and optimized analytical approaches to improve the detection of HIV-1 vaccine-induced ADCC responses and will inform analyses of future HIV vaccine clinical trials.

Fc Gamma Receptor Polymorphisms Modulated the Vaccine Effect on HIV-1 Risk in the HVTN 505 HIV Vaccine Trial

HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) 505 was a phase 2b efficacy trial of a DNA/recombinant adenovirus 5 (rAd5) HIV vaccine regimen. Although the trial was stopped early for lack of overall efficacy, later correlates of risk and sieve analyses generated the hypothesis that the DNA/rAd5 vaccine regimen protected some vaccinees from HIV infection yet enhanced HIV infection risk for others. Here, we assessed whether and how host Fc gamma receptor (FcγR) genetic variations influenced the DNA/rAd5 vaccine regimen's effect on HIV infection risk. We found that vaccine receipt significantly increased HIV acquisition compared with placebo receipt among participants carrying the FCGR2C-TATA haplotype (comprising minor alleles of four FCGR2C single-nucleotide polymorphism [SNP] sites) (hazard ratio [HR] = 9.79, P = 0.035) but not among participants without the haplotype (HR = 0.86, P = 0.67); the interaction of vaccine and haplotype effect was significant (P = 0.034). Similarly, vaccine receipt increased HIV acquisition compared with placebo receipt among participants carrying the FCGR3B-AGA haplotype (comprising minor alleles of the 3 FCGR3B SNPs) (HR = 2.78, P = 0.058) but not among participants without the haplotype (HR = 0.73, P = 0.44); again, the interaction of vaccine and haplotype was significant (P = 0.047). The FCGR3B-AGA haplotype also influenced whether a combined Env-specific CD8+ T-cell polyfunctionality score and IgG response correlated significantly with HIV risk; an FCGR2A SNP and two FCGR2B SNPs influenced whether anti-gp140 antibody-dependent cellular phagocytosis correlated significantly with HIV risk. These results provide further evidence that Fc gamma receptor genetic variations may modulate HIV vaccine effects and immune function after HIV vaccination.IMPORTANCE By analyzing data from the HVTN 505 efficacy trial of a DNA/recombinant adenovirus 5 (rAd5) vaccine regimen, we found that host genetics, specifically Fc gamma receptor genetic variations, influenced whether receiving the DNA/rAd5 regimen was beneficial, neutral, or detrimental to an individual with respect to HIV-1 acquisition risk. Moreover, Fc gamma receptor genetic variations influenced immune responses to the DNA/rAd5 vaccine regimen. Thus, Fc gamma receptor genetic variations should be considered in the analysis of future HIV vaccine trials and the development of HIV vaccines.

Safety and immunogenicity of a multivalent HIV vaccine comprising envelope protein with either DNA or NYVAC vectors (HVTN 096): a phase 1b, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Up to now, immunisation regimens that have been assessed for development of HIV vaccines have included purified envelope (Env) protein among the boosting components of the regimen. We postulated that co-administration of Env protein with either a DNA or NYVAC vector during priming would result in early generation of antibody responses to the Env V1/V2 region, which are important markers for effective protection against infection. We aimed to assess the safety and immunogenicity of a multivalent HIV vaccine including either DNA or NYVAC vectors alone or in combination with Env glycoprotein (gp120) followed by a co-delivered NYVAC and Env protein boost.

METHODS

We did a single-centre, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 1b trial at the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois (Lausanne, Switzerland). We included healthy volunteers aged 18-50 years who were at low risk of HIV infection. We randomly allocated participants using computer-generated random numbers to one of four vaccination schedules or placebo (4:1), and within these schedules participants were allocated either active treatment (T1, T2, T3, and T4) or placebo (C1, C2, C3, and C4). T1 consisted of two doses of NYVAC vector followed by two doses of NYVAC vector and gp120 Env protein; T2 comprised four doses of NYVAC vector and gp120 Env protein; T3 was two doses of DNA vector followed by two doses of NYVAC vector and gp120 Env protein; and T4 was two doses of DNA vector and gp120 Env protein followed by two doses of NYVAC vector and gp120 Env protein. Placebo injections were matched to the corresponding active treatment group. Doses were administered by injection at months 0, 1, 3, and 6. Primary outcomes were safety and immunogenicity of the vaccine schedules. Immune response measures included cross-clade and epitope-specific binding antibodies, neutralising antibodies, and antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity measured 2 weeks after the month 1, 3, and 6 vaccinations. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01799954.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 23, 2012, and April 18, 2013, 148 healthy adult volunteers were screened for the trial, of whom 96 participants were enrolled. 20 individuals were allocated to each active treatment group (groups T1-4; n=80) and four were assigned to each placebo group (groups C1-4; n=16). Vaccines containing the NYVAC vector (groups T1 and T2) were associated with more frequent severe reactogenicity and more adverse events than were vaccines containing the DNA vector (groups T3 and T4). The most frequent adverse events judged related to study product were lymphadenopathy (n=9) and hypoaesthesia (n=2). Two participants, one in the placebo group and one in the DNA-primed T3 group, had serious adverse events that were judged unrelated to study product. One participant in the T3 group died from cranial trauma after a motor vehicle accident. Across the active treatment groups, IgG responses 2 weeks after the 6-month dose of vaccine were 74-95%. Early administration of gp120 Env protein (groups T2 and T4) was associated with a substantially earlier and higher area under the curve for gp120 Env binding, production of anti-V1/V2 and neutralising antibodies, and better antibody-response coverage over a period of 18 months, compared with vaccination regimens that delayed administration of gp120 Env protein until the 3-month vaccination (groups T1 and T3).

INTERPRETATION

Co-administration of gp120 Env protein components with DNA or NYVAC vectors during priming led to early and potent induction of Env V1/V2 IgG binding antibody responses. This immunisation approach should be considered for induction of preventive antibodies in future HIV vaccine efficacy trials.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Antibody Fc effector functions and IgG3 associate with decreased HIV-1 risk

HVTN 505 is a preventative vaccine efficacy trial testing DNA followed by recombinant adenovirus serotype 5 (rAd5) in circumcised, Ad5-seronegative men and transgendered persons who have sex with men in the United States. Identified immune correlates of lower HIV-1 risk and a virus sieve analysis revealed that, despite lacking overall efficacy, vaccine-elicited responses exerted pressure on infecting HIV-1 viruses. To interrogate the mechanism of the antibody correlate of HIV-1 risk, we examined antigen-specific antibody recruitment of Fcγ receptors (FcγRs), antibody-dependent cellular phagocytosis (ADCP), and the role of anti-envelope (anti-Env) IgG3. In a prespecified immune correlates analysis, antibody-dependent monocyte phagocytosis and antibody binding to FcγRIIa correlated with decreased HIV-1 risk. Follow-up analyses revealed that anti-Env IgG3 breadth correlated with reduced HIV-1 risk, anti-Env IgA negatively modified infection risk by Fc effector functions, and that vaccine recipients with a specific FcγRIIa single-nucleotide polymorphism locus had a stronger correlation with decreased HIV-1 risk when ADCP, Env-FcγRIIa, and IgG3 binding were high. Additionally, FcγRIIa engagement correlated with decreased viral load setpoint in vaccine recipients who acquired HIV-1. These data support a role for vaccine-elicited anti-HIV-1 Env IgG3, antibody engagement of FcRs, and phagocytosis as potential mechanisms for HIV-1 prevention.

Immune correlates of the Thai RV144 HIV vaccine regimen in South Africa

One of the most successful HIV vaccines to date, the RV144 vaccine tested in Thailand, demonstrated correlates of protection including cross-clade V1V2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) breadth, Env-specific CD4+ T cell polyfunctionality, and antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) in vaccinees with low IgA binding. The HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) 097 trial evaluated this vaccine regimen in South Africa, where clade C HIV-1 predominates. We compared cellular and humoral responses at peak and durability immunogenicity time points in HVTN 097 and RV144 vaccinee samples, and evaluated vaccine-matched and cross-clade immune responses. At peak immunogenicity, HVTN 097 vaccinees exhibited significantly higher cellular and humoral immune responses than RV144 vaccinees. CD4+ T cell responses were more frequent in HVTN 097 irrespective of age and sex, and CD4+ T cell Env-specific functionality scores were higher in HVTN 097. Env-specific CD40L+ CD4+ T cells were more common in HVTN 097, with individuals having this pattern of expression demonstrating higher median antibody responses to HIV-1 Env. IgG and IgG3 binding antibody rates and response magnitude to gp120 vaccine- and V1V2 vaccine-matched antigens were higher or comparable in HVTN 097 than in RV144 ADCC, and ADCP functional antibody responses were elicited in HVTN 097. Env-specific IgG and CD4+ Env responses declined significantly over time in both trials. Overall, cross-clade immune responses associated with protection were better than expected in South Africa, suggesting wider applicability of this regimen.

Statistical Learning Methods to Determine Immune Correlates of Herpes Zoster in Vaccine Efficacy Trials

Using Super Learner, a machine learning statistical method, we assessed varicella zoster virus-specific glycoprotein-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (gpELISA) antibody titer as an individual-level signature of herpes zoster (HZ) risk in the Zostavax Efficacy and Safety Trial. Gender and pre- and postvaccination gpELISA titers had moderate ability to predict whether a 50-59 year old experienced HZ over 1-2 years of follow-up, with equal classification accuracy (cross-validated area under the receiver operator curve = 0.65) for vaccine and placebo recipients. Previous analyses suggested that fold-rise gpELISA titer is a statistical correlate of protection and supported the hypothesis that it is not a mechanistic correlate of protection. Our results also support this hypothesis.

Revisiting the Correlate of Reduced HIV Infection Risk in the Rv144 Vaccine Trial

The RV144 vaccine trial is the only clinical study to have shown a modest but statistically significant decrease in HIV infection risk. RV144 and the subsequent studies identifying the level of V1V2-specific antibodies as a correlate of reduced infection risk are still controversial despite many papers supporting and expanding the initial study. We address these controversies and summarize active-immunization and passive-immunization experiments in nonhuman primates that support the initial finding.

Assessing pharmacokinetic marker correlates of outcome, with application to antibody prevention efficacy trials

The Antibody Mediated Prevention efficacy trials are the first studies to evaluate whether passive administration of a broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody can prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition. The trials randomize 4600 HIV-negative volunteers to receive 10 infusions of the monoclonal antibody VRC01 or placebo. The primary objective compares the incidence of HIV infection between the study groups. The secondary objective assesses whether and how a marker defined as the serum concentration of VRC01 over time associates with the instantaneous rate of HIV infection, using a two-phase sampling design, a pharmacokinetic model for the time-concentration curve, and an estimator of HIV infection times. While a Cox model with a time-dependent covariate constitutes an important approach to this problem, the low interindividual versus intraindividual marker variability limits its power, motivating us to develop two alternative methods that condition on outcome status: (1) an indirect method that checks whether HIV-infected cases have unexpectedly long times from the most recent infusion to the estimated infection date and (2) a direct method that checks whether the marker itself is unexpectedly low at estimated infection dates. In simulations and a pseudo Antibody Mediated Prevention application, we find that method (2) (but not (1)) has greater power than the Cox model. We also find that the quality of the infection time estimator majorly impacts method performance, and thus, incorporating details of an optimized estimator is critical. The methods apply more generally for assessing a time-dependent longitudinal marker as a correlate of risk when the marker trajectory is modeled pharmacokinetically.

NONPARAMETRIC INFERENCE FOR IMMUNE RESPONSE THRESHOLDS OF RISK IN VACCINE STUDIES

An important objective in vaccine studies entails identifying an immune response which is predictive of disease risk. Nonparametric methods are developed for inference on immune response thresholds that are associated with specified levels of disease risk, including where the risk level is zero. This threshold is defined as the minimum immune response value above which disease risk is less than or equal to the desired level. The proposed nonparametric methods are compared to previously developed parametric methods in simulation studies. The methods are extended for use in studies that only measure the immune response in a subset of participants, such as case-cohort or case-control studies, and with right censored time to disease outcomes. Finally, these methods are used to estimate neutralizing antibody thresholds for virologically confirmed dengue risk using data from two recent dengue vaccine trials.

Modification of the Association Between T-Cell Immune Responses and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Infection Risk by Vaccine-Induced Antibody Responses in the HVTN 505 Trial

Background

HVTN 505 was a human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) preventive vaccine efficacy trial of a DNA/recombinant adenovirus serotype 5 (rAd5) vaccine regimen. We assessed antibody responses measured 1 month after final vaccination (month 7) as correlates of HIV-1 acquisition risk.

Methods

Binding antibody responses were quantified in serum samples from 25 primary endpoint vaccine cases (diagnosed with HIV-1 infection between month 7 and month 24) and 125 randomly sampled frequency-matched vaccine controls (HIV-1 negative at month 24). We prespecified for a primary analysis tier 6 antibody response biomarkers that measure immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin A (IgA) binding to Env proteins and 2 previously assessed T-cell response biomarkers.

Results

Envelope-specific IgG responses were significantly correlated with decreased HIV-1 risk. Moreover, the interaction of IgG responses and Env-specific CD8+ T-cell polyfunctionality score had a highly significant association with HIV-1 risk after adjustment for multiple comparisons.

Conclusions

Vaccinees with higher levels of Env IgG have significantly decreased HIV-1 risk when CD8+ T-cell responses are low. Moreover, vaccinees with high CD8+ T-cell responses generally have low risk, and those with low CD8+ T-cell and low Env antibody responses have high risk. These findings suggest the critical importance of inducing a robust IgG Env response when the CD8+ T-cell response is low.

Combining Viral Genetics and Statistical Modeling to Improve HIV-1 Time-of-infection Estimation towards Enhanced Vaccine Efficacy Assessment

Knowledge of the time of HIV-1 infection and the multiplicity of viruses that establish HIV-1 infection is crucial for the in-depth analysis of clinical prevention efficacy trial outcomes. Better estimation methods would improve the ability to characterize immunological and genetic sequence correlates of efficacy within preventive efficacy trials of HIV-1 vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. We developed new methods for infection timing and multiplicity estimation using maximum likelihood estimators that shift and scale (calibrate) estimates by fitting true infection times and founder virus multiplicities to a linear regression model with independent variables defined by data on HIV-1 sequences, viral load, diagnostics, and sequence alignment statistics. Using Poisson models of measured mutation counts and phylogenetic trees, we analyzed longitudinal HIV-1 sequence data together with diagnostic and viral load data from the RV217 and CAPRISA 002 acute HIV-1 infection cohort studies. We used leave-one-out cross validation to evaluate the prediction error of these calibrated estimators versus that of existing estimators and found that both infection time and founder multiplicity can be estimated with improved accuracy and precision by calibration. Calibration considerably improved all estimators of time since HIV-1 infection, in terms of reducing bias to near zero and reducing root mean squared error (RMSE) to 5-10 days for sequences collected 1-2 months after infection. The calibration of multiplicity assessments yielded strong improvements with accurate predictions (ROC-AUC above 0.85) in all cases. These results have not yet been validated on external data, and the best-fitting models are likely to be less robust than simpler models to variation in sequencing conditions. For all evaluated models, these results demonstrate the value of calibration for improved estimation of founder multiplicity and of time since HIV-1 infection.

Simultaneous Inference of Treatment Effect Modification by Intermediate Response Endpoint Principal Strata with Application to Vaccine Trials

In randomized clinical trials, researchers are often interested in identifying an inexpensive intermediate study endpoint (typically a biomarker) that is a strong effect modifier of the treatment effect on a longer-term clinical endpoint of interest. Motivated by randomized placebo-controlled preventive vaccine efficacy trials, within the principal stratification framework a pseudo-score type estimator has been proposed to estimate disease risks conditional on the counter-factual biomarker of interest under each treatment assignment to vaccine or placebo, yielding an estimator of biomarker conditional vaccine efficacy. This method can be used for trial designs that use baseline predictors of the biomarker and/or designs that vaccinate disease-free placebo recipients at the end of the trial. In this article, we utilize the pseudo-score estimator to estimate the biomarker conditional vaccine efficacy adjusting for baseline covariates. We also propose a perturbation resampling method for making simultaneous inference on conditional vaccine efficacy over the values of the biomarker. We illustrate our method with datasets from two phase 3 dengue vaccine efficacy trials.

HAI and NAI titer correlates of inactivated and live attenuated influenza vaccine efficacy

BACKGROUND

High hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and neuraminidase inhibition (NAI) titers are generally associated with reduced influenza risk. While repeated influenza vaccination reduces seroresponse, vaccine effectiveness is not always reduced.

METHODS

During the 2007-2008 influenza season, a randomized, placebo-controlled trial (FLUVACS) evaluated the efficacies of live-attenuated (LAIV) and inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV) among healthy adults aged 18-49 in Michigan; IIV vaccine efficacy (VE) and LAIV VE against influenza disease were estimated at 68% and 36%. Using the principal stratification/VE moderation framework, we analyzed data from this trial to assess how each VE varied by HAI or NAI responses to vaccination observed for vaccinated individuals and predicted counterfactually for placebo recipients. We also assessed how each VE varied with pre-vaccination/baseline variables including HAI titer, NAI titer, and vaccination history.

RESULTS

IIV VE appeared to increase with Day 30 post-vaccination HAI titer, albeit not significantly (p=0.20 and estimated VE 14.4%, 70.5%, and 85.5% at titer below the assay lower quantification limit, 512, and 4096 (maximum)). Moreover, IIV VE increased significantly with Day 30 post-vaccination NAI titer (p=0.040), with estimated VE zero at titer 10 and 92.2% at highest titer 640. There was no evidence that fold-change in post-vaccination HAI or NAI titer associated with IIV VE (p=0.76, 0.38). For LAIV, there was no evidence that VE associated with post-vaccination or fold-rise HAI or NAI titers (p-values >0.40). For IIV, VE increased with increasing baseline NAI titer in those previously vaccinated, but VE decreased with increasing baseline NAI titer in those previously unvaccinated. In contrast, for LAIV, VE did not depend on previous vaccination or baseline HAI or NAI titer.

CONCLUSIONS

Future efficacy trials should measure baseline and post-vaccination antibody titers in both vaccine and control/placebo recipients, enabling analyses to better elucidate correlates of vaccine- and natural-protection.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00538512. October 1, 2007.

A joint model for mixed and truncated longitudinal data and survival data, with application to HIV vaccine studies

In HIV vaccine studies, a major research objective is to identify immune response biomarkers measured longitudinally that may be associated with risk of HIV infection. This objective can be assessed via joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data. Joint models for HIV vaccine data are complicated by the following issues: (i) left truncations of some longitudinal data due to lower limits of quantification; (ii) mixed types of longitudinal variables; (iii) measurement errors and missing values in longitudinal measurements; (iv) computational challenges associated with likelihood inference. In this article, we propose a joint model of complex longitudinal and survival data and a computationally efficient method for approximate likelihood inference to address the foregoing issues simultaneously. In particular, our model does not make unverifiable distributional assumptions for truncated values, which is different from methods commonly used in the literature. The parameters are estimated based on the h-likelihood method, which is computationally efficient and offers approximate likelihood inference. Moreover, we propose a new approach to estimate the standard errors of the h-likelihood based parameter estimates by using an adaptive Gauss-Hermite method. Simulation studies show that our methods perform well and are computationally efficient. A comprehensive data analysis is also presented.

Estimating and Testing Vaccine Sieve Effects Using Machine Learning

When available, vaccines are an effective means of disease prevention. Unfortunately, efficacious vaccines have not yet been developed for several major infectious diseases, including HIV and malaria. Vaccine sieve analysis studies whether and how the efficacy of a vaccine varies with the genetics of the pathogen of interest, which can guide subsequent vaccine development and deployment. In sieve analyses, the effect of the vaccine on the cumulative incidence corresponding to each of several possible genotypes is often assessed within a competing risks framework. In the context of clinical trials, the estimators employed in these analyses generally do not account for covariates, even though the latter may be predictive of the study endpoint or censoring. Motivated by two recent preventive vaccine efficacy trials for HIV and malaria, we develop new methodology for vaccine sieve analysis. Our approach offers improved validity and efficiency relative to existing approaches by allowing covariate adjustment through ensemble machine learning. We derive results that indicate how to perform statistical inference using our estimators. Our analysis of the HIV and malaria trials shows markedly increased precision -- up to doubled efficiency in both trials -- under more plausible assumptions compared with standard methodology. Our findings provide greater evidence for vaccine sieve effects in both trials.