Predictors and Outcomes of Neurological Deterioration in Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Results from the TICH-2 Randomized Controlled Trial

Neurological deterioration is common after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We aimed to identify the predictors and effects of neurological deterioration and whether tranexamic acid reduced the risk of neurological deterioration. Data from the Tranexamic acid in IntraCerebral Hemorrhage-2 (TICH-2) randomized controlled trial were analyzed. Neurological deterioration was defined as an increase in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) of ≥ 4 or a decline in Glasgow Coma Scale of ≥ 2. Neurological deterioration was considered to be early if it started ≤ 48 h and late if commenced between 48 h and 7 days after onset. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors and effects of neurological deterioration and the effect of tranexamic acid on neurological deterioration. Of 2325 patients, 735 (31.7%) had neurological deterioration: 590 (80.3%) occurred early and 145 (19.7%) late. Predictors of early neurological deterioration included recruitment from the UK, previous ICH, higher admission systolic blood pressure, higher NIHSS, shorter onset-to-CT time, larger baseline hematoma, intraventricular hemorrhage, subarachnoid extension and antiplatelet therapy. Older age, male sex, higher NIHSS, previous ICH and larger baseline hematoma predicted late neurological deterioration. Neurological deterioration was independently associated with a modified Rankin Scale of > 3 (aOR 4.98, 3.70-6.70; p < 0.001). Tranexamic acid reduced the risk of early (aOR 0.79, 0.63-0.99; p = 0.041) but not late neurological deterioration (aOR 0.76, 0.52-1.11; p = 0.15). Larger hematoma size, intraventricular and subarachnoid extension increased the risk of neurological deterioration. Neurological deterioration increased the risk of death and dependency at day 90. Tranexamic acid reduced the risk of early neurological deterioration and warrants further investigation in ICH. URL: https://www.isrctn.com Unique identifier: ISRCTN93732214.

Outcomes in Antiplatelet-Associated Intracerebral Hemorrhage in the TICH-2 Randomized Controlled Trial

Background

Antiplatelet therapy increases the risk of hematoma expansion in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) while the effect on functional outcome is uncertain.

Methods and Results

This is an exploratory analysis of the TICH‐2 (Tranexamic Acid in Intracerebral Hemorrhage‐2) double‐blind, randomized, placebo‐controlled trial, which studied the efficacy of tranexamic acid in patients with spontaneous ICH within 8 hours of onset. Multivariable logistic regression and ordinal regression were performed to explore the relationship between pre‐ICH antiplatelet therapy, and 24‐hour hematoma expansion and day 90 modified Rankin Scale score, as well as the effect of tranexamic acid. Of 2325 patients, 611 (26.3%) had pre‐ICH antiplatelet therapy. They were older (mean age, 75.7 versus 66.5 years), more likely to have ischemic heart disease (25.4% versus 2.7%), ischemic stroke (36.2% versus 6.3%), intraventricular hemorrhage (40.2% versus 27.5%), and larger baseline hematoma volume (mean, 28.1 versus 22.6 mL) than the no‐antiplatelet group. Pre‐ICH antiplatelet therapy was associated with a significantly increased risk of hematoma expansion (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.28; 95% CI, 1.01–1.63), a shift toward unfavorable outcome in modified Rankin Scale (adjusted common OR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.32–1.91) and a higher risk of death at day 90 (adjusted OR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.25–2.11). Tranexamic acid reduced the risk of hematoma expansion in the overall patients with ICH (adjusted OR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.62–0.93) and antiplatelet subgroup (adjusted OR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.41–0.91) with no significant interaction between pre‐ICH antiplatelet therapy and tranexamic acid (P interaction=0.248).

Conclusions

Antiplatelet therapy is independently associated with hematoma expansion and unfavorable functional outcome. Tranexamic acid reduced hematoma expansion regardless of prior antiplatelet therapy use.

Registration

URL: https://www.isrctn.com; Unique identifier: ISRCTN93732214.

Pilot Randomised Evaluation of Singing in Dementia (PRESIDE): protocol for a two-arm, parallel-group randomised controlled feasibility study with waiting-list control

Background

As the number of people living with dementia grows, so does the need to provide them with adequate psychosocial support. Many people with dementia live at home with family carers, who also require social and emotional support to cope with their role. Community group singing has received attention for its potential to support people with dementia and their carers. It is postulated that singing can improve cognitive function, strengthen the bonds between care partners and help to establish social support networks. However, there is a lack of rigorous evidence of singing’s benefits for this population. This study aims to test the feasibility of a randomised controlled trial of community singing in dementia, to pave the way for a larger, conclusive study.

Methods

The PRESIDE study is designed as a two-arm, parallel-group randomised trial with a waiting list control. Dyads consisting of a person with dementia (n = 80) and their carer (n = 80) will be recruited. Each dyad will be randomised either to attend 10 weeks of community group singing sessions straight away or to wait for 3 months before attending the sessions. The singing sessions will be led by experienced professional musicians and will last about 90 min, including time for socialising. The primary outcome of this study is the attainment of feasibility criteria around recruitment, retention and the acceptability of the waiting list control. Secondary outcomes include the quality of life, mood, cognition, and musical engagement of the person with dementia, and quality of life, mood, and experiences/challenges of the carer. These data will be collected during home visits at baseline, and 3 and 6 months post-baseline.

Discussion

Despite growing public interest in the positive effects of singing, and encouraging findings from qualitative and non-randomised quantitative studies, there is a lack of rigorous evidence. This is the first randomised controlled trial of community group singing for people with dementia in Europe, to our knowledge. If the results favour a full trial, conclusively demonstrating the effectiveness of group singing could positively affect the opportunities available to community-dwelling people with dementia and their carers.

Trial registration

Unique identification number in ISRCTN registry: ISRCTN10201482. Date registered: 12 May 2020

Corrigendum: Intracranial Bleeding After Reperfusion Therapy in Acute Ischaemic Stroke Patients Randomized to Glyceryl Trinitrate vs. Control: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fneur.2020.584038.].

The Hazard of Negative (Not Neutral) Trials on Treatment of Acute Stroke: A Review

Importance

While there are a limited number of beneficial treatments for acute stroke (eg, stroke units, reperfusion, aspirin, hemicraniectomy), there are more negative (as opposed to neutral) interventions spanning multiple different mechanisms of action. To reduce the risk of future negative studies, it is vital to understand why previous interventions appeared to cause harm.

Observations

The limited number of beneficial treatments for acute ischemic stroke are far outnumbered by negative (not neutral) interventions that worsened outcomes in randomized clinical trials (RCTs), including those with putative neuroprotectant, anticoagulant, anti-inflammatory, free radical-scavenging, hemorrhagic, or vasoactive activity. Other agents reduced thrombolytic efficiency or exhibited neuropsychiatric or cardiac toxicity. In intracerebral hemorrhage, platelet transfusion was hazardous. Although reperfusion treatments should be given as soon as possible, very early intervention with other strategies may instead be hazardous, as has been seen with physical therapy and vasodepressors.

Conclusions and Relevance

The lessons learned from negative stroke RCTs are vital for designing future studies. Multicenter preclinical studies are necessary, and animals that die must be included in analyses. Randomized clinical trials must assess multiple neurological, vascular, cardiac, and general safety effects, whether these are on target or off target. All preclinical trials and RCTs must be published in full. Learning from the past will help to reduce the number of negative stroke RCTs in the future.

Desmopressin for reversal of Antiplatelet drugs in Stroke due to Haemorrhage (DASH): protocol for a phase II double-blind randomised controlled feasibility trial

INTRODUCTION

Intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) can be devastating and is a common cause of death and disability worldwide. Pre-ICH antiplatelet drug use is associated with a 27% relative increase in 1 month case fatality compared with patients not using antithrombotic drugs. We aim to assess the feasibility of conducting a randomised controlled testing the safety and efficacy of desmopressin for patients with antiplatelet-associated ICH.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We aim to include 50 patients within 24 hours of spontaneous ICH onset, associated with oral antiplatelet drug(s) use in at least the preceding 7 days. Patients will be randomised (1:1) to receive intravenous desmopressin 20 µg in 50 mL sodium chloride 0.9% infused over 20 min or matching placebo. We will mask participants, relatives and outcome assessors to treatment allocation. Feasibility outcomes include proportion of patients approached being randomised, number of patients receiving allocated treatment, rate of recruitment and adherence to treatment and follow-up. Secondary outcomes include change in ICH volume at 24 hours; hyponatraemia at 24 hours, length of hospital stay, discharge destination, early death less than 28 days, death or dependency at day 90, death up to day 90, serious adverse events (including thromboembolic events) up to day 90; disability (Barthel index, day 90), quality of life (EuroQol 5D (EQ-5D), day 90), cognition (telephone mini-mental state examination day 90) and health economic assessment (EQ-5D).

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Desmopressin for reversal of Antiplatelet drugs in Stroke due to Haemorrhage (DASH) trial received ethical approval from the East Midlands-Nottingham 2 research ethics committee (18/EM/0184). The DASH trial is funded by National Institute for Health and Care Research RfPB grant: PB-PG-0816-20011. Trial results will be published in a peer reviewed academic journal and disseminated through academic conferences and through patient stroke support groups. Reporting will be in compliance with Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials recommendations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS

NCT03696121; ISRCTN67038373; EudraCT 2018-001904-12.

Relationship between nitrate headache and outcome in patients with acute stroke: results from the efficacy of nitric oxide in stroke (ENOS) trial

INTRODUCTION

Nitrate-induced headache is common and may signify responsive cerebral vasculature. We assessed the relationship between nitrate headache and outcome in patients with acute stroke.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients were those randomised to glyceryl trinitrate (GTN) versus no GTN in the efficacy of nitric oxide in stroke trial. Development of headache by end of treatment (day 7), and functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale, primary outcome) at day 90, were assessed. Analyses are adjusted for baseline prognostic factors and give OR and mean difference (MD) with 95% CI.

RESULTS

In 4011 patients, headache was more common in GTN than control (360, 18.0% vs 170, 8.5%; p<0.001). Nitrate-related headache was associated with: younger age, female sex, higher diastolic blood pressure, non-total anterior circulation syndrome, milder stroke and absence of dysphasia (p<0.05). Nitrate headache was not associated with improved functional outcome (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.10, p=0.30) or death (day 90) (HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.40 to 1.02, p=0.062), but reduced death or deterioration (day 7) (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.82), death in hospital (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.22 to 0.88) and improved activities of daily living (Barthel index, MD 3.7, 95% CI 0.3 to 7.1) and cognition (telephone interview cognitive screen, MD 2.0, 95% CI 0.7 to 3.3) (day 90). Non-nitrate headache was not associated with death, disability or cognition.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Development of a nitrate headache by day 7 after stroke may be associated with improved activities of daily living and cognitive impairment at day 90, which was not seen with non-nitrate headache.

Pharyngeal electrical stimulation for neurogenic dysphagia following stroke, traumatic brain injury or other causes: Main results from the PHADER cohort study

BACKGROUND

Neurogenic dysphagia is common and has no definitive treatment. We assessed whether pharyngeal electrical stimulation (PES) is associated with reduced dysphagia.

METHODS

The PHAryngeal electrical stimulation for treatment of neurogenic Dysphagia European Registry (PHADER) was a prospective single-arm observational cohort study. Participants were recruited with neurogenic dysphagia (comprising five groups - stroke not needing ventilation; stroke needing ventilation; ventilation acquired; traumatic brain injury; other neurological causes). PES was administered once daily for three days. The primary outcome was the validated dysphagia severity rating scale (DSRS, score best-worst 0-12) at 3 months.

FINDINGS

Of 255 enrolled patients from 14 centres in Austria, Germany and UK, 10 failed screening. At baseline, mean (standard deviation) or median [interquartile range]: age 68 (14) years, male 71%, DSRS 11·4 (1·7), time from onset to treatment 32 [44] days; age, time and DSRS differed between diagnostic groups. Insertion of PES catheters was successfully inserted in 239/245 (98%) participants, and was typically easy taking 11·8 min. 9 participants withdrew before the end of treatment. DSRS improved significantly in all dysphagia groups, difference in means (95% confidence intervals, CI) from 0 to 3 months: stroke (n = 79) -6·7 (-7·8, -5·5), ventilated stroke (n = 98) -6·5 (-7·6, -5·5); ventilation acquired (n = 35) -6·6 (-8·4, -4·8); traumatic brain injury (n = 24) -4·5 (-6·6, -2·4). The results for DSRS were mirrored for instrumentally assessed penetration aspiration scale scores. DSRS improved in both supratentorial and infratentorial stroke, with no difference between them (p = 0·32). In previously ventilated participants with tracheotomy, DSRS improved more in participants who could be decannulated (n = 66) -7·5 (-8·6, -6·5) versus not decannulated (n = 33) -2·1 (-3·2, -1·0) (p<0·001). 74 serious adverse events (SAE) occurred in 60 participants with pneumonia (9·2%) the most frequent SAE.

INTERPRETATION

In patients with neurogenic dysphagia, PES was safe and associated with reduced measures of dysphagia and penetration/aspiration.

FUNDING

Phagenesis Ltd.

PRECIOUS: PREvention of Complications to Improve OUtcome in elderly patients with acute Stroke-statistical analysis plan of a randomised, open, phase III, clinical trial with blinded outcome assessment

Rationale

Aspiration, infections, and fever are common in the first days after stroke, especially in older patients. The occurrence of these complications has been associated with an increased risk of death or dependency.

Aims and design

PREvention of Complications to Improve OUtcome in elderly patients with acute Stroke (PRECIOUS) is an international, multi-centre, 3 × 2 factorial, randomised, controlled, open-label clinical trial with blinded outcome assessment, which will assess whether prevention of aspiration, infections, or fever with metoclopramide, ceftriaxone, paracetamol, respectively, or any combination of these in the first 4 days after stroke onset improves functional outcome at 90 days in elderly patients with acute stroke.

Discussion

This statistical analysis plan provides a technical description of the statistical methodology and unpopulated tables and figures. The paper is written prior to data lock and unblinding of treatment allocation.

Trial registration

ISRCTN registry ISRCTN82217627. Registered on 22 September 2015. The trial was prospectively registered.

Intracranial Bleeding After Reperfusion Therapy in Acute Ischaemic Stroke Patients Randomized to Glyceryl Trinitrate vs. Control: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

Background: Thrombolysis, with or without thrombectomy, for acute ischaemic stroke is associated with an increased risk of intracranial bleeding. We assessed whether treatment with glyceryl trinitrate (GTN), a nitric oxide donor, may influence the associated bleeding risk. Methods: We searched for completed randomized controlled trials of GTN vs. no GTN in acute ischaemic stroke with data on reperfusion treatments (thrombolysis and/or thrombectomy). The primary efficacy outcome was functional status as assessed by the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at day 90; the primary safety outcome was intracranial bleeding. Secondary safety outcomes included symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and haemorrhagic transformation of infarction. Individual patient data were pooled and meta-analysis performed using ordinal or binary logistic regression with adjustment for trial and prognostic variables both overall and in those randomized within 6 h of symptom onset. Results: Three trials met the eligibility criteria. Of 715 patients with ischaemic stroke who underwent thrombolysis (709, >99%) or thrombectomy (24, 3.4%), 357 (49.9%) received GTN and 358 (50.1%) received no GTN. Overall, there was no difference in the distribution of the mRS at day 90 between GTN vs. no GTN (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.72-1.23; p = 0.65); similarly, there was no difference in intracranial hemorrhage rates between treatment groups (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.43-1.89; p = 0.77). In those randomized to GTN vs. no GTN within 6 h of symptom onset, there were numerically fewer bleeding events, but these analyses did not reach statistical significance. Conclusions: In ischaemic stroke patients treated predominantly with thrombolysis, transdermal GTN was safe, but did not influence functional outcome at 90 days.

Tranexamic acid to improve functional status in adults with spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage: the TICH-2 RCT

BACKGROUND

Tranexamic acid reduces death due to bleeding after trauma and postpartum haemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to assess if tranexamic acid is safe, reduces haematoma expansion and improves outcomes in adults with spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH).

DESIGN

The TICH-2 (Tranexamic acid for hyperacute primary IntraCerebral Haemorrhage) study was a pragmatic, Phase III, prospective, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial.

SETTING

Acute stroke services at 124 hospitals in 12 countries (Denmark, Georgia, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the UK).

PARTICIPANTS

Adult patients (aged ≥ 18 years) with ICH within 8 hours of onset.

EXCLUSION CRITERIA

Exclusion criteria were ICH secondary to anticoagulation, thrombolysis, trauma or a known underlying structural abnormality; patients for whom tranexamic acid was thought to be contraindicated; prestroke dependence (i.e. patients with a modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score > 4); life expectancy < 3 months; and a Glasgow Coma Scale score of < 5.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants, allocated by randomisation, received 1 g of an intravenous tranexamic acid bolus followed by an 8-hour 1-g infusion or matching placebo (i.e. 0.9% saline).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

The primary outcome was functional status (death or dependency) at day 90, which was measured by the shift in the mRS score, using ordinal logistic regression, with adjustment for stratification and minimisation criteria.

RESULTS

A total of 2325 participants (tranexamic acid, n = 1161; placebo, n = 1164) were recruited from 124 hospitals in 12 countries between 2013 and 2017. Treatment groups were well balanced at baseline. The primary outcome was determined for 2307 participants (tranexamic acid, n = 1152; placebo, n = 1155). There was no statistically significant difference between the treatment groups for the primary outcome of functional status at day 90 [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76 to 1.03; p = 0.11]. Although there were fewer deaths by day 7 in the tranexamic acid group (aOR 0.73, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.99; p = 0.041), there was no difference in case fatality at 90 days (adjusted hazard ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.10; p = 0.37). Fewer patients experienced serious adverse events (SAEs) after treatment with tranexamic acid than with placebo by days 2 (p = 0.027), 7 (p = 0.020) and 90 (p = 0.039). There was no increase in thromboembolic events or seizures.

LIMITATIONS

Despite attempts to enrol patients rapidly, the majority of participants were enrolled and treated > 4.5 hours after stroke onset. Pragmatic inclusion criteria led to a heterogeneous population of participants, some of whom had very large strokes. Although 12 countries enrolled participants, the majority (82.1%) were from the UK.

CONCLUSIONS

Tranexamic acid did not affect a patient's functional status at 90 days after ICH, despite there being significant modest reductions in early death (by 7 days), haematoma expansion and SAEs, which is consistent with an antifibrinolytic effect. Tranexamic acid was safe, with no increase in thromboembolic events.

FUTURE WORK

Future work should focus on enrolling and treating patients early after stroke and identify which participants are most likely to benefit from haemostatic therapy. Large randomised trials are needed.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN93732214.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 35. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. The project was also funded by the Pragmatic Trials, UK, funding call and the Swiss Heart Foundation in Switzerland.

Remote platelet function testing using P-selectin expression in patients with recent cerebral ischaemia on clopidogrel

Background

Antiplatelet agents reduce recurrence after cerebral ischaemia but are not effective in all patients, in part because of treatment resistance. The primary aim was to assess the proportion of patients who are insensitive to clopidogrel. The secondary aim was to assess the association between insensitivity to clopidogrel and recurrent cerebrovascular events.

Methods

Following written informed consent, independent patients with a recent non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, and taking clopidogrel, were enrolled. Platelet function was assessed with remote measurement of surface expression of P-selectin (CD62P) using commercial kits sensitive to aspirin or clopidogrel. Participants’ general practitioners provided details on recurrent vascular events at least 90 days later. Data are mean (SD) and median [IQR]. Resistance was defined as: aspirin median fluorescence (MF) >500 units, clopidogrel MF >860 units. Non-parametric descriptors and tests were used.

Results

63 patients were recruited: mean age 64 (13.7) years, women 47%. At baseline, 59 (95%) patients were taking clopidogrel alone with 3 (5%) on combined clopidogrel and aspirin. Assessment of platelet surface P-selectin revealed: aspirin test 528 [317, 834], >500 54.8%; clopidogrel test 429 [303, 656], >860 11.3%. No participants on aspirin and clopidogrel showed aspirin resistance. Thirteen (20.6%) patients had a recurrent cerebrovascular event; those with an ischaemic stroke had a non-significantly higher baseline P-selectin using the clopidogrel test as compared with those with no recurrence: 626 [380, 801] versus 406 [265, 609], p=0.08.

Conclusions

Remote measurement of platelet function assessed using the platelet surface expression of P-selectin is feasible. 11% of patients taking clopidogrel showed resistance. No significant associations were noted between clopidogrel resistance and recurrent ischaemic events.

Data sharing: experience of accessing individual patient data from completed randomised controlled trials in vascular and cognitive medicine

OBJECTIVES

Meta-analysis based on individual patient data (IPD) from randomised trials is superior to using published summary data since it facilitates subgroup and multiple variable analyses. Guidelines and funders expect that researchers share IPD for bona fide analyses, but in practice, this is done variably. Here, we report the experience of obtaining IPD for two collaborative analysis studies.

SETTING

Two linked studies required IPD from published randomised trials. The leading researchers for eligible trials were approached and asked to share IPD including trial characteristics, patient demographics, baseline clinical data and outcome measures.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants in eligible randomised controlled trials included patients with or at risk of cognitive decline/vascular events.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Numbers (%) of trials where the leading researcher responded favourably/negatively or did not respond. If negative, reasons behind the response were collected. If positive, methods used to share IPD were recorded.

RESULTS

Across the two studies, 391 completed trials were identified. Email addresses for researchers were found for 313 (80%) of the trials. One hundred and forty-eight (47%) researchers did not respond despite being sent multiple emails. Following contact, positive initial responses were received from 92 researchers, resulting in IPD being shared for 78 trials. Eighty-seven (28%) researchers declined to share data; justifications were recorded. The median time from first request to accessing data in one study was 241 (IQR 383.3) days. IPD sources included: direct from researcher, via academic trial funders repository and a website requiring remote analysis of commercial data. Where data were shared, a variety of methods were used to transfer data.

CONCLUSION

Sharing of IPD from trials is desirable and a requirement of many funding bodies. However, accessing IPD faces multiple challenges including refusals to share, delays in access to data and having to perform analyses on a remote website.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Not applicable.

Tackling challenges in care of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias amid the COVID-19 pandemic, now and in the future

We have provided an overview on the profound impact of COVID‐19 upon older people with Alzheimer's disease and other dementias and the challenges encountered in our management of dementia in different health‐care settings, including hospital, out‐patient, care homes, and the community during the COVID‐19 pandemic. We have also proposed a conceptual framework and practical suggestions for health‐care providers in tackling these challenges, which can also apply to the care of older people in general, with or without other neurological diseases, such as stroke or parkinsonism. We believe this review will provide strategic directions and set standards for health‐care leaders in dementia, including governmental bodies around the world in coordinating emergency response plans for protecting and caring for older people with dementia amid the COIVD‐19 outbreak, which is likely to continue at varying severity in different regions around the world in the medium term.

Methodologies for pragmatic and efficient assessment of benefits and harms: Application to the SOCRATES trial

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Standard approaches to trial design and analyses can be inefficient and non-pragmatic. Failure to consider a range of outcomes impedes evidence-based interpretation and reduces power. Traditional approaches synthesizing information obtained from separate analysis of each outcome fail to incorporate associations between outcomes and recognize the cumulative nature of outcomes in individual patients, suffer from competing risk complexities during interpretation, and since efficacy and safety analyses are often conducted on different populations, generalizability is unclear. Pragmatic and efficient approaches to trial design and analyses are needed.

METHODS

Approaches providing a pragmatic assessment of benefits and harms of interventions, summarizing outcomes experienced by patients, and providing sample size efficiencies are described. Ordinal outcomes recognize finer gradations of patient responses. Desirability of outcome ranking is an ordinal outcome combining benefits and harms within patients. Analysis of desirability of outcome ranking can be based on rank-based methodologies including the desirability of outcome ranking probability, the win ratio, and the proportion in favor of treatment. Partial credit analyses, involving grading the levels of the desirability of outcome ranking outcome similar to an academic test, provides an alternative approach. The methodologies are demonstrated using the acute stroke or transient ischemic attack treated with aspirin or ticagrelor and patient outcomes study (SOCRATES; NCT01994720), a randomized clinical trial.

RESULTS

Two 5-level ordinal outcomes were developed for SOCRATES. The first was based on a modified Rankin scale. The odds ratio is 0.86 (95% confidence interval = 0.75, 0.99; p = 0.04) indicating that the odds of worse stroke categorization for a trial participant assigned to ticagrelor is 0.86 times that of a trial participant assigned to aspirin. The 5-level desirability of outcome ranking outcome incorporated and prioritized survival; the number of strokes, myocardial infarction, and major bleeding events; and whether a stroke event was disabling. The desirability of outcome ranking probability and win ratio are 0.504 (95% confidence interval = 0.499, 0.508; p = 0.10) and 1.11 (95% confidence interval = 0.98, 1.26; p = 0.10), respectively, implying that the probability of a more desirable result with ticagrelor is 50.4% and that a more desirable result occurs 1.11 times more frequently on ticagrelor versus aspirin.

CONCLUSION

Ordinal outcomes can improve efficiency through required pre-specification, careful construction, and analyses. Greater pragmatism can be obtained by composing outcomes within patients. Desirability of outcome ranking provides a global assessment of the benefits and harms that more closely reflect the experience of patients. The desirability of outcome ranking probability, the proportion in favor of treatment, the win ratio, and partial credit can more optimally inform patient treatment, enhance the understanding of the totality of intervention effects on patients, and potentially provide efficiencies over standard analyses. The methods provide the infrastructure for incorporating patient values and estimating personalized effects.

Cost-benefit of outcome adjudication in nine randomised stroke trials

BACKGROUND

Central adjudication of outcomes is common for randomised trials and should control for differential misclassification. However, few studies have estimated the cost of the adjudication process.

METHODS

We estimated the cost of adjudicating the primary outcome in nine randomised stroke trials (25,436 participants). The costs included adjudicators' time, direct payments to adjudicators, and co-ordinating centre costs (e.g. uploading cranial scans and general set-up costs). The number of events corrected after adjudication was our measure of benefit. We calculated cost per corrected event for each trial and in total.

RESULTS

The primary outcome in all nine trials was either stroke or a composite that included stroke. In total, the adjudication process associated with this primary outcome cost in excess of £100,000 for a third of the trials (3/9). Mean cost per event corrected by adjudication was £2295.10 (SD: £1482.42).

CONCLUSIONS

Central adjudication is a time-consuming and potentially costly process. These costs need to be considered when designing a trial and should be evaluated alongside the potential benefits adjudication brings to determine whether they outweigh this expense.

Cilostazol for Secondary Prevention of Stroke and Cognitive Decline: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Cilostazol, a phosphodiesterase 3' inhibitor, is used in Asia-Pacific countries for stroke prevention, but rarely used elsewhere. In addition to weak antiplatelet effects, it stabilizes endothelium, aids myelin repair and astrocyte-neuron energy transfer in laboratory models, effects that may be beneficial in preventing small vessel disease progression.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis of unconfounded randomized controlled trials of cilostazol to prevent stroke, cognitive decline, or radiological small vessel disease lesion progression. Two reviewers searched for papers (January 1, 2019 to July 16, 2019) and extracted data. We calculated Peto odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for recurrent ischemic, hemorrhagic stroke, death, adverse symptoms, with sensitivity analyses. The review is registered (CRD42018084742).

RESULTS

We included 20 randomized controlled trials (n=10 505), 18 in ischemic stroke (total n=10 449) and 2 in cognitive impairment (n=56); most were performed in Asia-Pacific countries. Cilostazol decreased recurrent ischemic stroke (17 trials, n=10 225, OR=0.68 [95% CI, 0.57-0.81]; P<0.0001), hemorrhagic stroke (16 trials, n=9736, OR=0.43 [95% CI, 0.29-0.64]; P=0.0001), deaths (OR=0.64 [95% CI, 0.49-0.83], P<0.0009), systemic bleeding (n=8387, OR=0.73 [95% CI, 0.54-0.99]; P=0.04), but increased headache and palpitations, compared with placebo, aspirin, or clopidogrel. Cilostazol reduced recurrent ischemic stroke more when given long (>6 months) versus short term without increasing hemorrhage, and in trials with larger proportions (>40%) of lacunar stroke. Data were insufficient to assess effects on cognition, imaging, functional outcomes, or tolerance.

CONCLUSIONS

Cilostazol appears effective for long-term secondary stroke prevention without increasing hemorrhage risk. However, most trials related to Asia-Pacific patients and more trials in Western countries should assess its effects on cognitive decline, functional outcome, and tolerance, particularly in lacunar stroke and other presentations of small vessel disease.

UK consensus on pre-clinical vascular cognitive impairment functional outcomes assessment: Questionnaire and workshop proceedings

Assessment of outcome in preclinical studies of vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) is heterogenous. Through an ARUK Scottish Network supported questionnaire and workshop (mostly UK-based researchers), we aimed to determine underlying variability and what could be implemented to overcome identified challenges. Twelve UK VCI research centres were identified and invited to complete a questionnaire and attend a one-day workshop. Questionnaire responses demonstrated agreement that outcome assessments in VCI preclinical research vary by group and even those common across groups, may be performed differently. From the workshop, six themes were discussed: issues with preclinical models, reasons for choosing functional assessments, issues in interpretation of functional assessments, describing and reporting functional outcome assessments, sharing resources and expertise, and standardization of outcomes. Eight consensus points emerged demonstrating broadly that the chosen assessment should reflect the deficit being measured, and therefore that one assessment does not suit all models; guidance/standardisation on recording VCI outcome reporting is needed and that uniformity would be aided by a platform to share expertise, material, protocols and procedures thus reducing heterogeneity and so increasing potential for collaboration, comparison and replication. As a result of the workshop, UK wide consensus statements were agreed and future priorities for preclinical research identified.

Outcome assessment by central adjudicators in randomised stroke trials: Simulation of differential and non-differential misclassification

INTRODUCTION

Adjudication of the primary outcome in randomised trials is thought to control misclassification. We investigated the amount of misclassification needed before adjudication changed the primary trial results.Patients (or materials) and methods: We included data from five randomised stroke trials. Differential misclassification was introduced for each primary outcome until the estimated treatment effect was altered. This was simulated 1000 times. We calculated the between-simulation mean proportion of participants that needed to be differentially misclassified to alter the treatment effect. In addition, we simulated hypothetical trials with a binary outcome and varying sample size (1000-10,000), overall event rate (10%-50%) and treatment effect (0.67-0.90). We introduced non-differential misclassification until the treatment effect was non-significant at 5% level.

RESULTS

For the five trials, the range of unweighted kappa values were reduced from 0.89-0.97 to 0.65-0.85 before the treatment effect was altered. This corresponded to 2.1%-6% of participants misclassified differentially for trials with a binary outcome. For the hypothetical trials, those with a larger sample size, stronger treatment effect and overall event rate closer to 50% needed a higher proportion of events non-differentially misclassified before the treatment effect became non-significant.

DISCUSSION

We found that only a small amount of differential misclassification was required before adjudication altered the primary trial results, whereas a considerable proportion of participants needed to be misclassified non-differentially before adjudication changed trial conclusions. Given that differential misclassification should not occur in trials with sufficient blinding, these results suggest that central adjudication is of most use in studies with unblinded outcome assessment.

CONCLUSION

For trials without adequate blinding, central adjudication is vital to control for differential misclassification. However, for large blinded trials, adjudication is of less importance and may not be necessary.

Improving economic evaluations in stroke: A report from the ESO Health Economics Working Group

INTRODUCTION

Approaches to economic evaluations of stroke therapies are varied and inconsistently described. An objective of the European Stroke Organisation (ESO) Health Economics Working Group is to standardise and improve the economic evaluations of interventions for stroke.

METHODS

The ESO Health Economics Working Group and additional experts were contacted to develop a protocol and a guidance document for data collection for economic evaluations of stroke therapies. A modified Delphi approach, including a survey and consensus processes, was used to agree on content. We also asked the participants about resources that could be shared to improve economic evaluations of interventions for stroke.

RESULTS

Of 28 experts invited, 16 (57%) completed the initial survey, with representation from universities, government, and industry. More than half of the survey respondents endorsed 13 specific items to include in a standard resource use questionnaire. Preferred functional/quality of life outcome measures to use for economic evaluations were the modified Rankin Scale (14 respondents, 88%) and the EQ-5D instrument (11 respondents, 69%). Of the 12 respondents who had access to data used in economic evaluations, 10 (83%) indicated a willingness to share data. A protocol template and a guidance document for data collection were developed and are presented in this article.

CONCLUSION

The protocol template and guidance document for data collection will support a more standardised and transparent approach for economic evaluations of stroke care.

Psychometric assessment and validation of the dysphagia severity rating scale in stroke patients

Post stroke dysphagia (PSD) is common and associated with poor outcome. The Dysphagia Severity Rating Scale (DSRS), which grades how severe dysphagia is based on fluid and diet modification and supervision requirements for feeding, is used for clinical research but has limited published validation information. Multiple approaches were taken to validate the DSRS, including concurrent- and predictive criterion validity, internal consistency, inter- and intra-rater reliability and sensitivity to change. This was done using data from four studies involving pharyngeal electrical stimulation in acute stroke patients with dysphagia, an individual patient data meta-analysis and unpublished studies (NCT03499574, NCT03700853). In addition, consensual- and content validity and the Minimal Clinically Important Difference (MCID) were assessed using anonymous surveys sent to UK-based Speech and Language Therapists (SLTs). Scores for consensual validity were mostly moderate (62.5-78%) to high or excellent (89-100%) for most scenarios. All but two assessments of content validity were excellent. In concurrent criterion validity assessments, DSRS was most closely associated with measures of radiological aspiration (penetration aspiration scale, Spearman rank rs = 0.49, p < 0.001) and swallowing (functional oral intake scale, FOIS, rs = -0.96, p < 0.001); weaker but statistically significant associations were seen with impairment, disability and dependency. A similar pattern of relationships was seen for predictive criterion validity. Internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) was either "good" or "excellent". Intra and inter-rater reliability were largely "excellent" (intraclass correlation >0.90). DSRS was sensitive to positive change during recovery (medians: 7, 4 and 1 at baseline and 2 and 13 weeks respectively) and in response to an intervention, pharyngeal electrical stimulation, in a published meta-analysis. The MCID was 1.0 and DSRS and FOIS scores may be estimated from each other. The DSRS appears to be a valid tool for grading the severity of swallowing impairment in patients with post stroke dysphagia and is appropriate for use in clinical research and clinical service delivery.