Cost-effectiveness of low-dose CT screening for lung cancer in a European country with high prevalence of smoking-A modelling study

OBJECTIVES

In Europe, there is uncertainty about the potential effects and cost-effectiveness of low dose computed tomography screening for lung cancer and about the applicability of results of North American studies. We aimed to estimate the effects and cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in a population-based setting in Switzerland where the smoking prevalence is high.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The MIcrosimulation Screening ANalysis-Lung (MISCAN) model was adapted using country specific input parameters regarding lung cancer epidemiology, smoking behaviours, and treatment costs. The effects and costs of 648 screening scenarios with different screening start and stop ages, smoking eligibility criteria, and screening intervals were examined from a public healthcare system perspective across a lifetime horizon in a cohort born between 1935 and 1965.

RESULTS

All screening scenarios showed an increase in the total number of detected lung cancer cases and a decrease in lung cancer mortality. On the efficiency frontier, 15 of 27 scenarios showed incremental cost-effectiveness ratios below € 50,000 per life year gained. These scenarios reduced lung cancer mortality by 6-15% while increasing incidence of lung cancer diagnoses by 2-6%.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that lung cancer screening may be cost-effective in Switzerland, a high-income, European country with high smoking prevalence.

Distinct, IgG1-driven antibody response landscapes demarcate individuals with broadly HIV-1 neutralizing activity

Kadelka et al. show that parameters linked with HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) development shape HIV-1–binding antibody responses in an antigen and IgG subclass dependent manner. Identified HIV-1 antibody signature landscapes reveal a shift toward IgG1-driven responses in bnAb developers.

Understanding pathways that promote HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) induction is crucial to advance bnAb-based vaccines. We recently demarcated host, viral, and disease parameters associated with bnAb development in a large HIV-1 cohort screen. By establishing comprehensive antibody signatures based on IgG1, IgG2, and IgG3 activity to 13 HIV-1 antigens in 4,281 individuals in the same cohort, we now show that the same four parameters that are significantly linked with neutralization breadth, namely viral load, infection length, viral diversity, and ethnicity, also strongly influence HIV-1–binding antibody responses. However, the effects proved selective, shaping binding antibody responses in an antigen and IgG subclass–dependent manner. IgG response landscapes in bnAb inducers indicated a differentially regulated, IgG1-driven HIV-1 antigen response, and IgG1 binding of the BG505 SOSIP trimer proved the best predictor of HIV-1 neutralization breadth in plasma. Our findings emphasize the need to unravel immune modulators that underlie the differentially regulated IgG response in bnAb inducers to guide vaccine development.

The Cumulative Impact of Harm Reduction on the Swiss HIV Epidemic: Cohort Study, Mathematical Model, and Phylogenetic Analysis

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission among injecting drug users (IDUs) is increasing in the United States due to the recent opioid epidemic and is the leading mode of transmission in Eastern Europe.

Methods

To evaluate the overall impact of HIV harm reduction, we combined (1) data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and public sources with (2) a mathematical model expressed as a system of ordinary differential equations. The model reconstructs the national epidemic from the first case in 1980 until 2015. Phylogenetic cluster analysis of HIV-1 pol sequences was used to quantify the epidemic spillover from IDUs to the general population.

Results

Overall, harm reduction prevented 15903 (range, 15359–16448) HIV infections among IDUs until the end of 2015, 5446 acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) deaths (range, 5142–5752), and a peak HIV prevalence of 50.7%. Introduction of harm reduction 2 years earlier could have halved the epidemic, preventing 3161 (range, 822–5499) HIV infections and 1468 (range, 609–2326) AIDS deaths. Suddenly discontinuing all harm reduction in 2005 would have resulted in outbreak re-emergence with 1351 (range, 779–1925) additional HIV cases. Without harm reduction, the estimated additional number of heterosexuals infected by HIV-positive IDUs is estimated to have been 2540 (range, 2453–2627), which is equivalent to the total national reported incidence among heterosexuals in the period of 2007 to 2015.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that a paramount, population-level impact occurred because of the harm reduction package, beyond factors that can be explained by a reduction in risk behavior and a decrease in the number of drug users over time.

Dietary Patterns and Physical Activity Correlate With Total Cholesterol Independently of Lipid-Lowering Drugs and Antiretroviral Therapy in Aging People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus

Background

Hypercholesterolemia is a well established risk factor for coronary heart disease and is highly prevalent among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive persons. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can both directly modify total cholesterol and have drug-drug interactions with statins. This makes investigating modifiable behavioral predictors of total cholesterol a pertinent task.

Methods

To explore the association between diet and physical activity with cross-sectionally measured total cholesterol, we administered a validated Food-Frequency-Questionnaire to participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study ≥45 years old. Linear mixed-effects models were applied to explore the associations between dietary patterns and physical activity with total cholesterol, after adjustment for clinical and demographic covariates.

Results

In total, 395 patients were included. Forty percent (158 of 395) had elevated total cholesterol (>5.2 mmol/L), and 41% (164 of 395) were not regularly physically active. In multivariable analysis, 2 factors were positively associated with total cholesterol; female sex (β = 0.562; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.229–0.896) and the combined consumption of meat, refined/milled grains, carbonated beverages, and coffee (β = 0.243; 95% CI, 0.047–0.439). On the other hand, regular physical activity (β = −0.381; 95% CI, −0.626 to −0.136), lipid-lowering drugs (β = −0.443; 95% CI −0.691 to −0.196), ART containing tenofovir (β = −0.336; 95% CI −0.554 to −0.118), and black ethnicity (β = −0.967; 95% CI −1.524 to −0.410) exhibited a negative association.

Conclusions

We found independent associations between certain dietary patterns and physical activity with total cholesterol. Increasing physical activity might achieve cardiovascular and other health benefits in HIV-positive individuals. The clinical relevance of the identified dietary patterns requires further investigation in prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials.

On the potential of a short-term intensive intervention to interrupt HCV transmission in HIV-positive men who have sex with men: A mathematical modelling study

Increasing access to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and decelerating the rise in high-risk behaviour over the next decade could curb the HCV epidemic among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM). We investigated if similar outcomes would be achieved by short-term intensive interventions like the Swiss-HCVree-trial. We used a HCV transmission model emulating two 12-months intensive interventions combining risk counselling with (i) universal DAA treatment (pangenotypic intervention) and (ii) DAA treatment for HCV genotypes 1 and 4 (replicating the Swiss-HCVree-trial). To capture potential changes outside intensive interventions, we varied time from HCV infection to treatment in clinical routine and overall high-risk behaviour among HIV-positive MSM. Simulated prevalence dropped from 5.5% in 2016 to ≤2.0% over the intervention period (June/2016-May/2017) with the pangenotypic intervention, and to ≤3.6% with the Swiss-HCVree-trial. Assuming time to treatment in clinical routine reflected reimbursement restrictions (METAVIR ≥F2, 16.9 years) and stable high-risk behaviour in the overall MSM population, prevalence in 2025 reached 13.1% without intensive intervention, 11.1% with the pangenotypic intervention and 11.8% with the Swiss-HCVree-trial. If time to treatment in clinical routine was 2 years, prevalence in 2025 declined to 4.8% without intensive intervention, to 2.8% with the pangenotypic intervention, and to 3.5% with the Swiss-HCVree-trial. In this scenario, the pangenotypic intervention and the Swiss-HCVree-trial reduced cumulative (2016-2025) treatment episodes by 36% and 24%, respectively. Therefore, intensive interventions could reduce future HCV treatment costs and boost the benefits of long-term efforts to prevent high-risk behaviour and to reduce treatment delay. But if after intensive interventions treatment is deferred until F2, short-term benefits of intensive interventions would dissipate in the long term.

Development of a high-throughput bead based assay system to measure HIV-1 specific immune signatures in clinical samples

The monitoring and assessment of a broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) based HIV-1 vaccine require detailed measurements of HIV-1 binding antibody responses to support the detection of correlates of protection. Here we describe the development of a flexible, high-throughput microsphere based multiplex assay system that allows monitoring complex binding antibody signatures. Studying a panel of 13 HIV-1 antigens in a parallel assessment of different IgG subclasses (IgG1, IgG2 and IgG3) we demonstrate the potential of our strategy. The technical advances we describe include means to improve antigen reactivity using directed neutravidin-biotin immobilization of antigens and biotin saturation to reduce background. A particular emphasis of our study was to provide tools for the assessment of reproducibility and stability of the assay system and strategies to control for variations allowing the application in high-throughput assays, where reliability of single measurements needs to be guaranteed.

Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis

Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number R0, we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters. Overall, the R0 is estimated to be 0.44 (95%-confidence interval 0.42—0.46) and it is decreasing by 11% per 10 years (4%—17%). Our findings indicate rather diminishing HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals far below the epidemic threshold. Generally, our approach allows to assess the danger of self-sustained epidemics from any viral sequence data.

In epidemiology, the “basic reproductive number” describes how efficiently a disease is transmitted, and represents the average number of new infections that an infected individual causes. If this number is less than one, many people do not infect anybody and hence the transmission chains die out. On the other hand, if the basic reproductive number is larger than one, an infected person infects on average more than one new individual, which leads to the virus or bacteria spreading in a self-sustained way.

Turk et al. have now developed a method to estimate the basic reproductive number using the genetic sequences of the virus or bacteria, and have used it to investigate how efficiently HIV spreads among Swiss heterosexuals. The results show that the basic reproductive number of HIV in this group is far below the critical value of one and that over the last years this number has been decreasing. Furthermore, the basic reproductive number differs for different subtypes of the HIV virus, indicating that the geographical region where the infection was acquired may play a role in transmission. Turk et al. also found that people who are diagnosed later or who often have sex with occasional partners spread the virus more efficiently.

These findings might be helpful for policy makers as they indicate that the risk of self-sustained transmission in this group in Switzerland is small. Furthermore the method allows HIV epidemics to be monitored at high resolution using sequence data, assesses the success of currently implemented preventive measures, and helps to target subgroups who are at higher risk of an infection – for instance, by supporting frequent HIV testing of these people. The method developed by Turk et al. could also prove useful for assessing the danger of other epidemics.

Impact of screening and antiretroviral therapy on anal cancer incidence in HIV-positive MSM

BACKGROUND

The incidence of anal cancer is high in HIV-positive MSM. We modeled the impact of screening strategies and combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) coverage on anal cancer incidence in Switzerland.

METHODS

Individual-based, dynamic simulation model parameterized with Swiss HIV Cohort Study and literature data. We assumed all men to be human papillomavirus infected. CD4 cell count trajectories were the main predictors of anal cancer. From 2016 we modeled cART coverage either as below 100% (corresponding to 2010-2015) or as 100%, and the following four screening strategies: no screening, yearly anal cytology (Papanicolaou smears), yearly anoscopy and targeted anoscopy 5 years after CD4 count dropped below 200 cells/μl.

RESULTS

Median nadir CD4 cell count of 6411 MSM increased from 229 cells/μl during 1980-1989 to 394 cells/μl during 2010-2015; cART coverage increased from 0 to 83.4%. Modeled anal cancer incidence peaked at 81.7/100 000 in 2009, plateaued 2010-2015 and will decrease to 58.7 by 2030 with stable cART coverage, and to 52.0 with 100% cART coverage. With yearly cytology, incidence declined to 38.2/100 000 by 2030, with yearly anoscopy to 32.8 and with CD4 cell count guided anoscopy to 51.3. The numbers needed to screen over 15 years to prevent one anal cancer case were 384 for yearly cytology, 313 for yearly anoscopy and 242 for CD4 cell count-dependent screening.

CONCLUSION

Yearly screening of HIV-positive MSM may reduce anal cancer incidence substantially, with a number needed to screen that is comparable with other screening interventions to prevent cancer.

Mining for pairs: shared clinic visit dates identify steady HIV-positive partnerships

OBJECTIVES

Here we examined the hypothesis that some stable HIV-infected partnerships can be found in cohort studies, as the patients frequently attend the clinic visits together.

METHODS

Using mathematical approximations and shuffling to derive the probabilities of sharing a given number of visits by chance, we identified and validated couples that may represent either transmission pairs or serosorting couples in a stable relationship.

RESULTS

We analysed 434 432 visits for 16 139 Swiss HIV Cohort Study patients from 1990 to 2014. For 89 pairs, the number of shared visits exceeded the number expected. Of these, 33 transmission pairs were confirmed on the basis of three criteria: an extensive phylogenetic tree, a self-reported steady HIV-positive partnership, and risk group affiliation. Notably, 12 of the validated transmission pairs (36%; 12 of 33) were of a mixed ethnicity with a large median age gap [17.5 years; interquartile range (IQR) 11.8-22 years] and these patients harboured HIV-1 of predominantly non-B subtypes, suggesting imported infections.

CONCLUSIONS

In the context of the surge in research interest in HIV transmission pairs, this simple method widens the horizons of research on within-pair quasi-species exchange, transmitted drug resistance and viral recombination at the biological level and targeted prevention at the public health level.

Factors associated with syphilis incidence in the HIV-infected in the era of highly active antiretrovirals

After several years of steady decline, syphilis is reemerging globally as a public health hazard, especially among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Syphilis resurgence is observed mainly in men who have sex with men (MSM), yet other transmission groups are affected too. In this manuscript, we study the factors associated with syphilis incidence in the Swiss HIV cohort study in the era of highly effective antiretrovirals. Using parametric interval censored models with fixed and time-varying covariates, we studied the immunological, behavioral, and treatment-related elements associated with syphilis incidence in 3 transmission groups: MSM, heterosexuals, and intravenous drug users. Syphilis incidence has been increasing annually since 2005, with up to 74 incident cases per 1000 person-years in 2013, with MSM being the population with the highest burden (92% of cases). While antiretroviral treatment (ART) in general did not affect syphilis incidence, nevirapine (NVP) was associated with a lower hazard of syphilis incidence (multivariable hazard ratio 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.2-1.0). We observed that condomless sex and younger age were associated with higher syphilis incidence. Moreover, time-updated CD4, nadir CD4, and CD8 cell counts were not associated with syphilis incidence. Finally, testing frequency higher than the recommended once a year routine testing was associated with a 2-fold higher risk of acquiring syphilis. Condomless sex is the main driver of syphilis resurgence in the Swiss HIV Cohort study; ART and immune reconstitution provide no protection against syphilis. This entails targeted interventions and frequent screening of high-risk populations. There is no known effect of NVP on syphilis; therefore, further clinical, epidemiological, and microbiological investigation is necessary to validate our observation.

Hepatitis C virus transmission among human immunodeficiency virus-infected men who have sex with men: Modeling the effect of behavioral and treatment interventions

The incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected men who have sex with men has increased in recent years and is associated with high-risk sexual behavior. Behavioral interventions that target high-risk behavior associated with HCV transmission and treatment with direct-acting antivirals may prevent further HCV infections. We predicted the effect of behavioral and treatment interventions on HCV incidence and prevalence among HIV-infected men who have sex with men up to 2030 using a HCV transmission model parameterized with data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We assessed behavioral interventions associated with further increase, stabilization, and decrease in the size of the population with high-risk behavior. Treatment interventions included increase in treatment uptake and use of direct-acting antivirals. If we assumed that without behavioral interventions high-risk behavior spread further according to the trends observed over the last decade and that the treatment practice did not change, HCV incidence converged to 10.7/100 person-years. All assessed behavioral interventions alone resulted in reduced HCV transmissions. Stabilization of high-risk behavior combined with increased treatment uptake and the use of direct-acting antivirals reduced incidence by 77% (from 2.2 in 2015 to 0.5/100 person-years) and prevalence by 81% (from 4.8% in 2015 to 0.9%) over the next 15 years. Increasing treatment uptake was more effective than increasing treatment efficacy to reduce HCV incidence and prevalence. A decrease in high-risk behavior led to a rapid decline in HCV incidence, independent of treatment interventions.

CONCLUSION

Treatment interventions to curb the HCV epidemic among HIV-infected men who have sex with men are effective if high-risk behavior does not increase as it has during the last decade; reducing high-risk behavior associated with HCV transmission would be the most effective intervention for controlling the HCV epidemic, even if this was not accompanied by an increase in treatment uptake or efficacy. (Hepatology 2016;64:1856-1869).

Determinants of HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibody induction

Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) are a focal component of HIV-1 vaccine design, yet basic aspects of their induction remain poorly understood. Here we report on viral, host and disease factors that steer bnAb evolution using the results of a systematic survey in 4,484 HIV-1-infected individuals that identified 239 bnAb inducers. We show that three parameters that reflect the exposure to antigen-viral load, length of untreated infection and viral diversity-independently drive bnAb evolution. Notably, black participants showed significantly (P = 0.0086-0.038) higher rates of bnAb induction than white participants. Neutralization fingerprint analysis, which was used to delineate plasma specificity, identified strong virus subtype dependencies, with higher frequencies of CD4-binding-site bnAbs in infection with subtype B viruses (P = 0.02) and higher frequencies of V2-glycan-specific bnAbs in infection with non-subtype B viruses (P = 1 × 10^-5). Thus, key host, disease and viral determinants, including subtype-specific envelope features that determine bnAb specificity, remain to be unraveled and harnessed for bnAb-based vaccine design.

Dually Active HIV/HBV Antiretrovirals as Protection Against Incident Hepatitis B Infections: Potential for Prophylaxis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) has a detrimental effect on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) natural course, and HBV vaccination is less effective in the HIV infected. We examine the protective effect of dually active antiretroviral therapy (DAART) for HIV/HBV (tenofovir, lamivudine, and emtricitabine) in a large cohort encompassing heterosexuals, men who have sex with men, and intravenous drug users who are HIV infected yet susceptible to HBV, with comprehensive follow-up data about risky behavior and immunological profiles.

METHODS

We defined an incident HBV infection as the presence of any of HBV serological markers (hepatitis B surface antigen, anti-hepatitis B core antibodies, or HBV DNA) after a negative baseline test result for anti-hepatitis B core antibodies. Patients with positive anti-hepatitis B surface antigen serology were excluded. Cox proportional hazards models were used, with an incident case of HBV infection as the outcome variable.

RESULTS

We analyzed 1716 eligible patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with 177 incident HBV cases. DAART was negatively associated with incident HBV infection (hazard ratio [HR], 0.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], .2-.6). This protective association was robust to adjustment (HR, 0.3; 95% CI, .2-.5) for condomless sex, square-root-transformed CD4 cell count, drug use, and patient demographics. Condomless sex (HR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.4-2.6), being a man who has sex with men (2.7; 1.7-4.2), and being an intravenous drug user (3.8; 2.4-6.1) were all associated with a higher hazard of contracting HBV.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that DAART, independently of CD4 cell count and risky behavior, has a potentially strong public health impact, including pre-exposure prophylaxis of HBV coinfection in the HIV infected.

Successful Prevention of Transmission of Integrase Resistance in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

The prevalence of integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-transmitted drug resistance (TDR) may increase with the increasing use of INSTIs. We analyzed the prevalence of INSTI TDR in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (2008-2014). In 1 of 1316 drug-naive samples (0.1%), a major INSTI TDR mutation was detected. Prevalence was stable, although INSTIs were increasingly used. We showed that this is in contrast to the introduction of previous drug classes, in which more treatment failures with resistant strains occurred and TDR was observed more rapidly. We demonstrated on a population-level that it is possible to avoid TDR to a new drug class for years.

Emergence of Acquired HIV-1 Drug Resistance Almost Stopped in Switzerland: A 15-Year Prospective Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

Drug resistance is a major barrier to successful antiretroviral treatment (ART). Therefore, it is important to monitor time trends at a population level.

METHODS

We included 11 084 ART-experienced patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) between 1999 and 2013. The SHCS is highly representative and includes 72% of patients receiving ART in Switzerland. Drug resistance was defined as the presence of ≥1 major mutation in a genotypic resistance test. To estimate the prevalence of drug resistance, data for patients with no resistance test was imputed based on the patient's risk of harboring drug-resistant viruses.

RESULTS

The emergence of new drug resistance mutations declined dramatically from 401 to 23 patients between 1999 and 2013. The upper estimated prevalence limit of drug resistance among ART-experienced patients decreased from 57.0% in 1999 to 37.1% in 2013. The prevalence of 3-class resistance decreased from 9.0% to 4.4% and was always <0.4% for patients who initiated ART after 2006. Most patients actively participating in the SHCS in 2013 with drug-resistant viruses initiated ART before 1999 (59.8%). Nevertheless, in 2013, 94.5% of patients who initiated ART before 1999 had good remaining treatment options based on Stanford algorithm.

CONCLUSIONS

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 drug resistance among ART-experienced patients in Switzerland is a well-controlled relic from the era before combination ART. Emergence of drug resistance can be virtually stopped with new potent therapies and close monitoring.

HIV-1 Transmission During Recent Infection and During Treatment Interruptions as Major Drivers of New Infections in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Reducing the fraction of transmissions during recent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is essential for the population-level success of "treatment as prevention".

METHODS

A phylogenetic tree was constructed with 19 604 Swiss sequences and 90 994 non-Swiss background sequences. Swiss transmission pairs were identified using 104 combinations of genetic distance (1%-2.5%) and bootstrap (50%-100%) thresholds, to examine the effect of those criteria. Monophyletic pairs were classified as recent or chronic transmission based on the time interval between estimated seroconversion dates. Logistic regression with adjustment for clinical and demographic characteristics was used to identify risk factors associated with transmission during recent or chronic infection.

FINDINGS

Seroconversion dates were estimated for 4079 patients on the phylogeny, and comprised between 71 (distance, 1%; bootstrap, 100%) to 378 transmission pairs (distance, 2.5%; bootstrap, 50%). We found that 43.7% (range, 41%-56%) of the transmissions occurred during the first year of infection. Stricter phylogenetic definition of transmission pairs was associated with higher recent-phase transmission fraction. Chronic-phase viral load area under the curve (adjusted odds ratio, 3; 95% confidence interval, 1.64-5.48) and time to antiretroviral therapy (ART) start (adjusted odds ratio 1.4/y; 1.11-1.77) were associated with chronic-phase transmission as opposed to recent transmission. Importantly, at least 14% of the chronic-phase transmission events occurred after the transmitter had interrupted ART.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate a high fraction of transmission during recent HIV infection but also chronic transmissions after interruption of ART in Switzerland. Both represent key issues for treatment as prevention and underline the importance of early diagnosis and of early and continuous treatment.

Assessing efficacy of different nucleos(t)ide backbones in NNRTI-containing regimens in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The most recommended NRTI combinations as first-line antiretroviral treatment for HIV-1 infection in resource-rich settings are tenofovir/emtricitabine, abacavir/lamivudine, tenofovir/lamivudine and zidovudine/lamivudine. Efficacy studies of these combinations also considering pill numbers, dosing frequencies and ethnicities are rare.

METHODS

We included patients starting first-line combination ART (cART) with or switching from first-line cART without treatment failure to tenofovir/emtricitabine, abacavir/lamivudine, tenofovir/lamivudine and zidovudine/lamivudine plus efavirenz or nevirapine. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to investigate the effect of the different NRTI combinations on two primary outcomes: virological failure (VF) and emergence of NRTI resistance. Additionally, we performed a pill burden analysis and adjusted the model for pill number and dosing frequency.

RESULTS

Failure events per treated patient for the four NRTI combinations were as follows: 19/1858 (tenofovir/emtricitabine), 9/387 (abacavir/lamivudine), 11/344 (tenofovir/lamivudine) and 45/1244 (zidovudine/lamivudine). Compared with tenofovir/emtricitabine, abacavir/lamivudine had an adjusted HR for having VF of 2.01 (95% CI 0.86-4.55), tenofovir/lamivudine 2.89 (1.22-6.88) and zidovudine/lamivudine 2.28 (1.01-5.14), whereas for the emergence of NRTI resistance abacavir/lamivudine had an HR of 1.17 (0.11-12.2), tenofovir/lamivudine 11.3 (2.34-55.3) and zidovudine/lamivudine 4.02 (0.78-20.7). Differences among regimens disappeared when models were additionally adjusted for pill burden. However, non-white patients compared with white patients and higher pill number per day were associated with increased risks of VF and emergence of NRTI resistance: HR of non-white ethnicity for VF was 2.85 (1.64-4.96) and for NRTI resistance 3.54 (1.20-10.4); HR of pill burden for VF was 1.41 (1.01-1.96) and for NRTI resistance 1.72 (0.97-3.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Although VF and emergence of resistance was very low in the population studied, tenofovir/emtricitabine appears to be superior to abacavir/lamivudine, tenofovir/lamivudine and zidovudine/lamivudine. However, it is unclear whether these differences are due to the substances as such or to an association of tenofovir/emtricitabine regimens with lower pill burden.

The path of least resistance: aggressive or moderate treatment?

The evolution of resistance to antimicrobial chemotherapy is a major and growing cause of human mortality and morbidity. Comparatively little attention has been paid to how different patient treatment strategies shape the evolution of resistance. In particular, it is not clear whether treating individual patients aggressively with high drug dosages and long treatment durations, or moderately with low dosages and short durations can better prevent the evolution and spread of drug resistance. Here, we summarize the very limited available empirical evidence across different pathogens and provide a conceptual framework describing the information required to effectively manage drug pressure to minimize resistance evolution.

Increases in Condomless Sex in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Condomless sex is a key driver of sexually transmitted diseases. In this study, we assess the long-term changes (2000-2013) of the occurrence of condomless sex among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort study. The frequencies with which HIV-infected individuals reported condomless sex were either stable or only weakly increasing for 2000-2008. For 2008-2013, these rates increased significantly for stable relationships among heterosexuals and men who have sex with men (MSM) and for occasional relationships among MSM. Our results highlight the increasing public health challenge posed by condomless sex and show that condomless sex has been increasing even in the most recent years.

The potential impact of coinfection on antimicrobial chemotherapy and drug resistance

Across a range of pathogens, resistance to chemotherapy is a growing problem in both public health and animal health. Despite the ubiquity of coinfection, and its potential effects on within-host biology, the role played by coinfecting pathogens on the evolution of resistance and efficacy of antimicrobial chemotherapy is rarely considered. In this review, we provide an overview of the mechanisms of interaction of coinfecting pathogens, ranging from immune modulation and resource modulation, to drug interactions. We discuss their potential implications for the evolution of resistance, providing evidence in the rare cases where it is available. Overall, our review indicates that the impact of coinfection has the potential to be considerable, suggesting that this should be taken into account when designing antimicrobial drug treatments.

Frequency and Spectrum of Unexpected Clinical Manifestations of Primary HIV-1 Infection

BACKGROUND

Prospectively and systematically collected data on frequency and spectrum of unexpected clinical manifestations during primary human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (PHI) have not been published.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled 290 patients with documented PHI in the Zurich Primary HIV Infection Study. Typical acute retroviral syndrome (ARS) was defined as fever plus at least 1 symptom or sign typically considered to be associated with ARS; in absence of fever, presence of 2 or more ARS symptoms or signs. Atypical ARS was defined as lack of symptoms or signs, a single symptom or sign only and absence of fever, presence of symptoms or signs that are not considered typically associated with ARS, or occurrence of an opportunistic disease. Time to diagnosis was calculated based on estimated date of infection and first positive HIV test.

RESULTS

We analyzed 290 patients (271 males). PHI manifested with typical ARS in 202 (70%) and with atypical ARS in 88 (30%) patients. Patients with atypical ARS were hospitalized 4 times more often compared with typical ARS (43% vs 11%; P < .001). The gastrointestinal tract was the most frequent organ system affected in patients with atypical manifestations. Only in 112 (38%) patients was HIV infection suspected during the first medical attendance. Patients with typical ARS were diagnosed slightly earlier compared with atypical ARS, but this difference was not significant (P = .3).

CONCLUSIONS

Unexpected clinical presentations occurred in a large fraction of patients with PHI and were associated with substantial morbidity. Universal HIV testing may be mandatory in high-risk groups.

Persistence of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance mutations associated with fitness costs and viral genetic backgrounds

Transmission of drug-resistant pathogens presents an almost-universal challenge for fighting infectious diseases. Transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) can persist in the absence of drugs for considerable time. It is generally believed that differential TDRM-persistence is caused, at least partially, by variations in TDRM-fitness-costs. However, in vivo epidemiological evidence for the impact of fitness costs on TDRM-persistence is rare.

Here, we studied the persistence of TDRM in HIV-1 using longitudinally-sampled nucleotide sequences from the Swiss-HIV-Cohort-Study (SHCS). All treatment-naïve individuals with TDRM at baseline were included. Persistence of TDRM was quantified via reversion rates (RR) determined with interval-censored survival models. Fitness costs of TDRM were estimated in the genetic background in which they occurred using a previously published and validated machine-learning algorithm (based on in vitro replicative capacities) and were included in the survival models as explanatory variables.

In 857 sequential samples from 168 treatment-naïve patients, 17 TDRM were analyzed. RR varied substantially and ranged from 174.0/100-person-years;CI=[51.4, 588.8] (for 184V) to 2.7/100-person-years;[0.7, 10.9] (for 215D). RR increased significantly with fitness cost (increase by 1.6[1.3,2.0] per standard deviation of fitness costs). When subdividing fitness costs into the average fitness cost of a given mutation and the deviation from the average fitness cost of a mutation in a given genetic background, we found that both components were significantly associated with reversion-rates.

Our results show that the substantial variations of TDRM persistence in the absence of drugs are associated with fitness-cost differences both among mutations and among different genetic backgrounds for the same mutation.

The evolution of resistance is a universal challenge in antimicrobial chemotherapy. A key driver of resistance is that drug resistance mutations often persist even in the absence of drugs and despite the fact that resistance mutations are often associated with reduced pathogen replication (“fitness costs”). Such persistence may occur because fitness costs are low, especially if they are compensated by additional mutations in their “genetic background”. Here we assessed the role of fitness-cost and the genetic background for resistance in a real-world epidemiological setting by studying the persistence behavior of transmitted antiretroviral resistance mutations of HIV. This persistence behavior was associated with the predicted fitness cost of a given resistance mutation in the particular genetic background in which it occurred. We found that persistence behavior varied strongly across both mutation types and genetic backgrounds and that persistence was significantly associated with predicted fitness costs. In particular we found that even mutations of the same type tended to persist longer if they occurred in a genetic background where they caused weak fitness costs. Overall our results underline the variability of persistence behavior as well as the important role of fitness costs and the genetic background in the evolution of antimicrobial resistance.

Low-frequency drug-resistant HIV-1 and risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART: a multicohort European case-control study using centralized ultrasensitive 454 pyrosequencing

Objectives

It is still debated if pre-existing minority drug-resistant HIV-1 variants (MVs) affect the virological outcomes of first-line NNRTI-containing ART.

Methods

This Europe-wide case–control study included ART-naive subjects infected with drug-susceptible HIV-1 as revealed by population sequencing, who achieved virological suppression on first-line ART including one NNRTI. Cases experienced virological failure and controls were subjects from the same cohort whose viraemia remained suppressed at a matched time since initiation of ART. Blinded, centralized 454 pyrosequencing with parallel bioinformatic analysis in two laboratories was used to identify MVs in the 1%–25% frequency range. ORs of virological failure according to MV detection were estimated by logistic regression.

Results

Two hundred and sixty samples (76 cases and 184 controls), mostly subtype B (73.5%), were used for the analysis. Identical MVs were detected in the two laboratories. 31.6% of cases and 16.8% of controls harboured pre-existing MVs. Detection of at least one MV versus no MVs was associated with an increased risk of virological failure (OR = 2.75, 95% CI = 1.35–5.60, P = 0.005); similar associations were observed for at least one MV versus no NRTI MVs (OR = 2.27, 95% CI = 0.76–6.77, P = 0.140) and at least one MV versus no NNRTI MVs (OR = 2.41, 95% CI = 1.12–5.18, P = 0.024). A dose–effect relationship between virological failure and mutational load was found.

Conclusions

Pre-existing MVs more than double the risk of virological failure to first-line NNRTI-based ART.