Post-Ebola Syndrome, Sierra Leone

Thousands of persons have survived Ebola virus disease. Almost all survivors describe symptoms that persist or develop after hospital discharge. A cross-sectional survey of the symptoms of all survivors from the Ebola treatment unit (ETU) at 34th Regimental Military Hospital, Freetown, Sierra Leone (MH34), was conducted after discharge at their initial follow-up appointment within 3 weeks after their second negative PCR result. From its opening on December 1, 2014, through March 31, 2015, the MH34 ETU treated 84 persons (8-70 years of age) with PCR-confirmed Ebola virus disease, of whom 44 survived. Survivors reported musculoskeletal pain (70%), headache (48%), and ocular problems (14%). Those who reported headache had had lower admission cycle threshold Ebola PCR than did those who did not (p<0.03). This complete survivor cohort from 1 ETU enables analysis of the proportion of symptoms of post-Ebola syndrome. The Ebola epidemic is waning, but the effects of the disease will remain.

Molecular mechanisms of Ebola pathogenesis

Ebola viruses (EBOVs) and Marburg viruses (MARVs) are among the deadliest human viruses, as highlighted by the recent and widespread Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa, which was the largest and longest epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in history, resulting in significant loss of life and disruptions across multiple continents. Although the number of cases has nearly reached its nadir, a recent cluster of 5 cases in Guinea on March 17, 2016, has extended the enhanced surveillance period to June 15, 2016. New, enhanced 90-d surveillance windows replaced the 42-d surveillance window to ensure the rapid detection of new cases that may arise from a missed transmission chain, reintroduction from an animal reservoir, or more important, reemergence of the virus that has persisted in an EVD survivor. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of EBOV pathogenesis, describe vaccine and therapeutic candidates in clinical trials, and discuss mechanisms of viral persistence and long-term health sequelae for EVD survivors.

Exposure Patterns Driving Ebola Transmission in West Africa: A Retrospective Observational Study

BACKGROUND

The ongoing West African Ebola epidemic began in December 2013 in Guinea, probably from a single zoonotic introduction. As a result of ineffective initial control efforts, an Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scale emerged. As of 4 May 2015, it had resulted in more than 19,000 probable and confirmed Ebola cases, mainly in Guinea (3,529), Liberia (5,343), and Sierra Leone (10,746). Here, we present analyses of data collected during the outbreak identifying drivers of transmission and highlighting areas where control could be improved.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Over 19,000 confirmed and probable Ebola cases were reported in West Africa by 4 May 2015. Individuals with confirmed or probable Ebola ("cases") were asked if they had exposure to other potential Ebola cases ("potential source contacts") in a funeral or non-funeral context prior to becoming ill. We performed retrospective analyses of a case line-list, collated from national databases of case investigation forms that have been reported to WHO. These analyses were initially performed to assist WHO's response during the epidemic, and have been updated for publication. We analysed data from 3,529 cases in Guinea, 5,343 in Liberia, and 10,746 in Sierra Leone; exposures were reported by 33% of cases. The proportion of cases reporting a funeral exposure decreased over time. We found a positive correlation (r = 0.35, p < 0.001) between this proportion in a given district for a given month and the within-district transmission intensity, quantified by the estimated reproduction number (R). We also found a negative correlation (r = -0.37, p < 0.001) between R and the district proportion of hospitalised cases admitted within ≤4 days of symptom onset. These two proportions were not correlated, suggesting that reduced funeral attendance and faster hospitalisation independently influenced local transmission intensity. We were able to identify 14% of potential source contacts as cases in the case line-list. Linking cases to the contacts who potentially infected them provided information on the transmission network. This revealed a high degree of heterogeneity in inferred transmissions, with only 20% of cases accounting for at least 73% of new infections, a phenomenon often called super-spreading. Multivariable regression models allowed us to identify predictors of being named as a potential source contact. These were similar for funeral and non-funeral contacts: severe symptoms, death, non-hospitalisation, older age, and travelling prior to symptom onset. Non-funeral exposures were strongly peaked around the death of the contact. There was evidence that hospitalisation reduced but did not eliminate onward exposures. We found that Ebola treatment units were better than other health care facilities at preventing exposure from hospitalised and deceased individuals. The principal limitation of our analysis is limited data quality, with cases not being entered into the database, cases not reporting exposures, or data being entered incorrectly (especially dates, and possible misclassifications).

CONCLUSIONS

Achieving elimination of Ebola is challenging, partly because of super-spreading. Safe funeral practices and fast hospitalisation contributed to the containment of this Ebola epidemic. Continued real-time data capture, reporting, and analysis are vital to track transmission patterns, inform resource deployment, and thus hasten and maintain elimination of the virus from the human population.

Ebola Virus Shedding and Transmission: Review of Current Evidence

BACKGROUND

The magnitude of the 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa was unprecedented, with >28 500 reported cases and >11 000 deaths. Understanding the key elements of Ebola virus transmission is necessary to implement adequate infection prevention and control measures to protect healthcare workers and halt transmission in the community.

METHODS

We performed an extensive PubMed literature review encompassing the period from discovery of Ebola virus, in 1976, until 1 June 2016 to evaluate the evidence on modes of Ebola virus shedding and transmission.

FINDINGS

Ebola virus has been isolated by cell culture from blood, saliva, urine, aqueous humor, semen, and breast milk from infected or convalescent patients. Ebola virus RNA has been noted in the following body fluids days or months after onset of illness: saliva (22 days), conjunctiva/tears (28 days), stool (29 days), vaginal fluid (33 days), sweat (44 days), urine (64 days), amniotic fluid (38 days), aqueous humor (101 days), cerebrospinal fluid (9 months), breast milk (16 months [preliminary data]), and semen (18 months). Nevertheless, the only documented cases of secondary transmission from recovered patients have been through sexual transmission. We did not find strong evidence supporting respiratory or fomite-associated transmission.

Diagnostics in Ebola Virus Disease in Resource-Rich and Resource-Limited Settings

The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa was unprecedented in scale and location. Limited access to both diagnostic and supportive pathology assays in both resource-rich and resource-limited settings had a detrimental effect on the identification and isolation of cases as well as individual patient management. Limited access to such assays in resource-rich settings resulted in delays in differentiating EVD from other illnesses in returning travellers, in turn utilising valuable resources until a diagnosis could be made. This had a much greater impact in West Africa, where it contributed to the initial failure to contain the outbreak. This review explores diagnostic assays of use in EVD in both resource-rich and resource-limited settings, including their respective limitations, and some novel assays and approaches that may be of use in future outbreaks.

Experimental Treatment of Ebola Virus Disease with Brincidofovir

BACKGROUND

The nucleotide analogue brincidofovir was developed to prevent and treat infections caused by double-stranded DNA viruses. Based on in vitro data suggesting an antiviral effect against Ebola virus, brincidofovir was included in the World Health Organisation list of agents that should be prioritised for clinical evaluation in patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD) during the West African epidemic.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In this single-arm phase 2 trial conducted in Liberia, patients with laboratory-confirmed EVD (two months of age or older, enrolment bodyweight ≥50 kg) received oral brincidofovir 200 mg as a loading dose on day 0, followed by 100 mg brincidofovir on days 3, 7, 10, and 14. Bodyweight-adjusted dosing was used for patients weighing <50 kg at enrolment. The primary outcome was survival at Day 14 after the first dose of brincidofovir. Four patients were enrolled between 01 January 2015 and 31 January 2015. The trial was stopped following the decision by the manufacturer to terminate their program of development of brincidofovir for EVD. No Serious Adverse Reactions or Suspected Unexpected Serious Adverse Reactions were identified. All enrolled subjects died of an illness consistent with EVD.

CONCLUSIONS

Due to the small sample size it was not possible to determine the efficacy of brincidofovir for the treatment of EVD. The premature termination of the trial highlights the need to establish better practices for preclinical in-vitro and animal screening of therapeutics for potentially emerging epidemic infectious diseases prior to their use in patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR201411000939962.

In vivo Ebola virus infection leads to a strong innate response in circulating immune cells

BACKGROUND

Ebola virus is the causative agent of a severe syndrome in humans with a fatality rate that can approach 90 %. During infection, the host immune response is thought to become dysregulated, but the mechanisms through which this happens are not entirely understood. In this study, we analyze RNA sequencing data to determine the host response to Ebola virus infection in circulating immune cells.

RESULTS

Approximately half of the 100 genes with the strongest early increases in expression were interferon-stimulated genes, such as ISG15, OAS1, IFIT2, HERC5, MX1 and DHX58. Other highly upregulated genes included cytokines CXCL11, CCL7, IL2RA, IL2R1, IL15RA, and CSF2RB, which have not been previously reported to change during Ebola virus infection. Comparing this response in two different models of exposure (intramuscular and aerosol) revealed a similar signature of infection. The strong innate response in the aerosol model was seen not only in circulating cells, but also in primary and secondary target tissues. Conversely, the innate immune response of vaccinated macaques was almost non-existent. This suggests that the innate response is a major aspect of the cellular response to Ebola virus infection in multiple tissues.

CONCLUSIONS

Ebola virus causes a severe infection in humans that is associated with high mortality. The host immune response to virus infection is thought to be an important aspect leading to severe pathology, but the components of this overactive response are not well characterized. Here, we analyzed how circulating immune cells respond to the virus and found that there is a strong innate response dependent on active virus replication. This finding is in stark contrast to in vitro evidence showing a suppression of innate immune signaling, and it suggests that the strong innate response we observe in infected animals may be an important contributor to pathogenesis.

Factors Underlying Ebola Virus Infection Among Health Workers, Kenema, Sierra Leone, 2014-2015

BACKGROUND

Ebola virus disease (EVD) in health workers (HWs) has been a major challenge during the 2014-2015 outbreak. We examined factors associated with Ebola virus exposure and mortality in HWs in Kenema District, Sierra Leone.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the Sierra Leone National Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Database, contact tracing records, Kenema Government Hospital (KGH) staff and Ebola Treatment Unit (ETU) rosters, and burial logs.

RESULTS

From May 2014 through January 2015, 600 cases of EVD originated in Kenema District, including 92 (15%) HWs, 66 (72%) of whom worked at KGH. Among KGH medical staff and international volunteers, 18 of 62 (29%) who worked in the ETU developed EVD, compared with 48 of 83 (58%) who worked elsewhere in the hospital. Thirteen percent of HWs with EVD reported contact with EVD patients, while 27% reported contact with other infected HWs. The number of HW EVD cases at KGH declined roughly 1 month after implementation of a new triage system at KGH and the opening of a second ETU within the district. The case fatality ratio for HWs and non-HWs with EVD was 69% and 74%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The cluster of HW EVD cases in Kenema District is one of the largest ever reported. Most HWs with EVD had potential virus exposure both inside and outside of hospitals. Prevention measures for HWs must address a spectrum of infection risks in both formal and informal care settings as well as in the community.

Clomiphene and Its Isomers Block Ebola Virus Particle Entry and Infection with Similar Potency: Potential Therapeutic Implications

The 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus (EBOV) in Western Africa highlighted the need for anti-EBOV therapeutics. Clomiphene is a U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved drug that blocks EBOV entry and infection in cells and significantly protects EBOV-challenged mice. As provided, clomiphene is, approximately, a 60:40 mixture of two stereoisomers, enclomiphene and zuclomiphene. The pharmacokinetic properties of the two isomers vary, but both accumulate in the eye and male reproductive tract, tissues in which EBOV can persist. Here we compared the ability of clomiphene and its isomers to inhibit EBOV using viral-like particle (VLP) entry and transcription/replication-competent VLP (trVLP) assays. Clomiphene and its isomers inhibited the entry and infection of VLPs and trVLPs with similar potencies. This was demonstrated with VLPs bearing the glycoproteins from three filoviruses (EBOV Mayinga, EBOV Makona, and Marburg virus) and in two cell lines (293T/17 and Vero E6). Visual problems have been noted in EBOV survivors, and viral RNA has been isolated from semen up to nine months post-infection. Since the clomiphene isomers accumulate in these affected tissues, clomiphene or one of its isomers warrants consideration as an anti-EBOV agent, for example, to potentially help ameliorate symptoms in EBOV survivors.

Public health structures attendance during the Ebola outbreak in Guéckédou, Guinea

The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa may affect healthcare attendance. We describe, in the Guinean prefecture of Guéckédou, trends in attendance of public healthcare structures and the main reported diagnoses over the year following the EVD outbreak notification (March 2014). Monthly numbers of visits and main diagnoses such as malaria, schistosomiasis and measles reported by Guéckédou health centres and health posts were described from January 2012 to March 2015. The median number of visits was 15 724/month. From 1 April to 30 September 2014 (EVD outbreak peak), 90 947 visits were reported, representing decreases of 4·8% and 7·4% compared to 2013 and 2012, respectively. Following December 2014 (last EVD notification in Guéckédou), visits increased from 12 540 in January to 16 032 in March 2015. Malaria seasonality was observed in 2014 with 22 519 notifications from 1 April to 31 July. No seasonality was observed for intestinal schistosomiasis (median 485 cases/month); however, a peak was notified in March 2014 (824 cases). Over the study period, all measles cases were notified in 2015 (183 cases). Reduction in healthcare attendance in Guéckédou was modest during the EVD outbreak. Enhanced infectious disease surveillance is a challenge in this context, due to the impact of EVD on traditional prevention programmes.

Polyamines and Hypusination Are Required for Ebolavirus Gene Expression and Replication

Ebolavirus (EBOV) is an RNA virus that is known to cause severe hemorrhagic fever in humans and other primates : EBOV successfully enters and replicates in many cell types. This replication is dependent on the virus successfully coopting a number of cellular factors. Many of these factors are currently unidentified but represent potential targets for antiviral therapeutics. Here we show that cellular polyamines are critical for EBOV replication. We found that small-molecule inhibitors of polyamine synthesis block gene expression driven by the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. Short hairpin RNA (shRNA) knockdown of the polyamine pathway enzyme spermidine synthase also resulted in reduced EBOV replication. These findings led us to further investigate spermidine, a polyamine that is essential for the hypusination of eukaryotic initiation factor 5A (eIF5A). Blocking the hypusination of eIF5A (and thereby inhibiting its function) inhibited both EBOV gene expression and viral replication. The mechanism appears to be due to the importance of hypusinated eIF5A for the accumulation of VP30, an essential component of the viral polymerase. The same reduction in hypusinated eIF5A did not alter the accumulation of other viral polymerase components. This action makes eIF5A function an important gate for proper EBOV polymerase assembly and function through the control of a single virus protein.

IMPORTANCE

Ebolavirus (EBOV) is one of the most lethal human pathogens known. EBOV requires host factors for replication due to its small RNA genome. Here we show that the host protein eIF5A in its activated form is necessary for EBOV replication. We further show that the mechanism is through the accumulation of a single EBOV protein, VP30. To date, no other host proteins have been shown to interfere with the translation or stability of an EBOV protein. Activated eIF5A is the only protein in the cell known to contain the specific modification of hypusine; therefore, this pathway is a target for drug development. Further investigation into the mechanism of eIF5A interaction with VP30 could provide insight into therapeutics to combat EBOV.

MERS, SARS, and Ebola: The Role of Super-Spreaders in Infectious Disease

Super-spreading occurs when a single patient infects a disproportionate number of contacts. The 2015 MERS-CoV, 2003 SARS-CoV, and to a lesser extent 2014–15 Ebola virus outbreaks were driven by super-spreaders. We summarize documented super-spreading in these outbreaks, explore contributing factors, and suggest studies to better understand super-spreading.

Optimal control analysis of Ebola disease with control strategies of quarantine and vaccination

BACKGROUND

The 2014 Ebola epidemic is the largest in history, affecting multiple countries in West Africa. Some isolated cases were also observed in other regions of the world.

METHOD

In this paper, we introduce a deterministic SEIR type model with additional hospitalization, quarantine and vaccination components in order to understand the disease dynamics. Optimal control strategies, both in the case of hospitalization (with and without quarantine) and vaccination are used to predict the possible future outcome in terms of resource utilization for disease control and the effectiveness of vaccination on sick populations. Further, with the help of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis we also have identified the most sensitive parameters which effectively contribute to change the disease dynamics. We have performed mathematical analysis with numerical simulations and optimal control strategies on Ebola virus models.

RESULTS

We used dynamical system tools with numerical simulations and optimal control strategies on our Ebola virus models. The original model, which allowed transmission of Ebola virus via human contact, was extended to include imperfect vaccination and quarantine. After the qualitative analysis of all three forms of Ebola model, numerical techniques, using MATLAB as a platform, were formulated and analyzed in detail. Our simulation results support the claims made in the qualitative section.

CONCLUSION

Our model incorporates an important component of individuals with high risk level with exposure to disease, such as front line health care workers, family members of EVD patients and Individuals involved in burial of deceased EVD patients, rather than the general population in the affected areas. Our analysis suggests that in order for R 0 (i.e., the basic reproduction number) to be less than one, which is the basic requirement for the disease elimination, the transmission rate of isolated individuals should be less than one-fourth of that for non-isolated ones. Our analysis also predicts, we need high levels of medication and hospitalization at the beginning of an epidemic. Further, optimal control analysis of the model suggests the control strategies that may be adopted by public health authorities in order to reduce the impact of epidemics like Ebola.

Good laboratory practices guarantee biosafety in the Sierra Leone-China friendship biosafety laboratory

BACKGROUND

The outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa between 2014 and 2015 was the largest EDV epidemic since the identification of Ebola virus (EBOV) in 1976, and the countries most strongly affected were Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia.

FINDINGS

The Sierra Leone-China Friendship Biological Safety Laboratory (SLE-CHN Biosafety Lab), a fixed Biosafety Level 3 laboratory in the capital city of Sierra Leone, was established by the Chinese government and has been active in EBOV detection since 11 March 2015. Complete management and program documents were created for the SLE-CHN Biosafety Lab, and it was divided into four zones (the green, yellow, brown, and red zones) based on the risk assessment. Different types of safe and appropriate personnel protection equipment (PPE) are used in different zones of the laboratory, and it fully meets the Biosafety Level 3 laboratory standards of the World Health Organization.

CONCLUSION

Good preparedness, comprehensive risk assessment and operation documents, appropriate PPE, effective monitoring and intensive training, together with well-designed and reasonable laboratory sectioning are essential for guaranteeing biosafety.

Design of a Randomized Controlled Trial for Ebola Virus Disease Medical Countermeasures: PREVAIL II, the Ebola MCM Study

BACKGROUND

Unique challenges posed by emerging infectious diseases often expose inadequacies in the conventional phased investigational therapeutic development paradigm. The recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa presents a critical case-study highlighting barriers to faster development. During the outbreak, clinical trials were implemented with unprecedented speed. Yet, in most cases, this fast-tracked approach proved too slow for the rapidly evolving epidemic. Controversy abounded as to the most appropriate study designs to yield safety and efficacy data, potentially causing delays in pivotal studies. Preparation for research during future outbreaks may require acceptance of a paradigm that circumvents, accelerates, or reorders traditional phases, without losing sight of the traditional benchmarks by which drug candidates must be assessed for activity, safety and efficacy.

METHODS

We present the design of an adaptive, parent protocol, ongoing in West Africa until January 2016. The exigent circumstances of the outbreak and limited prior clinical experience with experimental treatments, led to more direct bridging from preclinical studies to human trials than the conventional paradigm would typically have sanctioned, and required considerable design flexibility.

RESULTS

Preliminary evaluation of the "barely Bayesian" design was provided through computer simulation studies. The understanding and public discussion of the study design will help its future implementation.

Aerosol Transmission of Filoviruses

Filoviruses have become a worldwide public health concern because of their potential for introductions into non-endemic countries through international travel and the international transport of infected animals or animal products. Since it was first identified in 1976, in the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire) and Sudan, the 2013–2015 western African Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak is the largest, both by number of cases and geographical extension, and deadliest, recorded so far in medical history. The source of ebolaviruses for human index case(s) in most outbreaks is presumptively associated with handling of bush meat or contact with fruit bats. Transmission among humans occurs easily when a person comes in contact with contaminated body fluids of patients, but our understanding of other transmission routes is still fragmentary. This review deals with the controversial issue of aerosol transmission of filoviruses.

Potential Impact of Sexual Transmission on Ebola Virus Epidemiology: Sierra Leone as a Case Study

BACKGROUND

Sexual transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) 6 months after onset of symptoms has been recently documented, and Ebola virus RNA has been detected in semen of survivors up to 9 months after onset of symptoms. As countries affected by the 2013-2015 epidemic in West Africa, by far the largest to date, are declared free of Ebola virus disease (EVD), it remains unclear what threat is posed by rare sexual transmission events that could arise from survivors.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We devised a compartmental mathematical model that includes sexual transmission from convalescent survivors: a SEICR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-convalescent-recovered) transmission model. We fitted the model to weekly incidence of EVD cases from the 2014-2015 epidemic in Sierra Leone. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations showed that a 0.1% per sex act transmission probability and a 3-month convalescent period (the two key unknown parameters of sexual transmission) create very few additional cases, but would extend the epidemic by 83 days [95% CI: 68-98 days] (p < 0.0001) on average. Strikingly, a 6-month convalescent period extended the average epidemic by 540 days (95% CI: 508-572 days), doubling the current length, despite an insignificant rise in the number of new cases generated.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our results show that reductions in the per sex act transmission probability via abstinence and condom use should reduce the number of sporadic sexual transmission events, but will not significantly reduce the epidemic size and may only minimally shorten the length of time the public health community must maintain response preparedness. While the number of infectious survivors is expected to greatly decline over the coming months, our results show that transmission events may still be expected for quite some time as each event results in a new potential cluster of non-sexual transmission. Precise measurement of the convalescent period is thus important for planning ongoing surveillance efforts.

Testing the accuracy ratio of the Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) through Ebola haemorrhagic fever outbreaks

Mathematical modelling is an important tool for understanding the dynamics of the spread of infectious diseases, which could be the result of a natural outbreak or of the intentional release of pathogenic biological agents. Decision makers and policymakers responsible for strategies to contain disease, prevent epidemics and fight possible bioterrorism attacks, need accurate computational tools, based on mathematical modelling, for preventing or even managing these complex situations. In this article, we tested the validity, and demonstrate the reliability, of an open-source software, the Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM), designed to help scientists and public health officials to evaluate and create models of emerging infectious diseases, analysing three real cases of Ebola haemorrhagic fever (EHF) outbreaks: Uganda (2000), Gabon (2001) and Guinea (2014). We discuss the cases analysed through the simulation results obtained with STEM in order to demonstrate the capability of this software in helping decision makers plan interventions in case of biological emergencies.

Circulating microRNA profiles of Ebola virus infection

Early detection of Ebola virus (EBOV) infection is essential to halting transmission and adjudicating appropriate treatment. However, current methods rely on viral identification, and this approach can misdiagnose presymptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. In contrast, disease-driven alterations in the host transcriptome can be exploited for pathogen-specific diagnostic biomarkers. Here, we present for the first time EBOV-induced changes in circulating miRNA populations of nonhuman primates (NHPs) and humans. We retrospectively profiled longitudinally-collected plasma samples from rhesus macaques challenged via intramuscular and aerosol routes and found 36 miRNAs differentially present in both groups. Comparison of miRNA abundances to viral loads uncovered 15 highly correlated miRNAs common to EBOV-infected NHPs and humans. As proof of principle, we developed an eight-miRNA classifier that correctly categorized infection status in 64/74 (86%) human and NHP samples. The classifier identified acute infections in 27/29 (93.1%) samples and in 6/12 (50%) presymptomatic NHPs. These findings showed applicability of NHP-derived miRNAs to a human cohort, and with additional research the resulting classifiers could impact the current capability to diagnose presymptomatic and asymptomatic EBOV infections.

Ebola Virus Stability on Surfaces and in Fluids in Simulated Outbreak Environments

We evaluated the stability of Ebola virus on surfaces and in fluids under simulated environmental conditions for the climate of West Africa and for climate-controlled hospitals. This virus remains viable for a longer duration on surfaces in hospital conditions than in African conditions and in liquid than in dried blood.

Differences in the Comparative Stability of Ebola Virus Makona-C05 and Yambuku-Mayinga in Blood

In support of the response to the 2013–2016 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in Western Africa, we investigated the persistence of Ebola virus/H.sapiens-tc/GIN/2014/Makona-C05 (EBOV/Mak-C05) on non-porous surfaces that are representative of hospitals, airplanes, and personal protective equipment. We performed persistence studies in three clinically-relevant human fluid matrices (blood, simulated vomit, and feces), and at environments representative of in-flight airline passenger cabins, environmentally-controlled hospital rooms, and open-air Ebola treatment centers in Western Africa. We also compared the surface stability of EBOV/Mak-C05 to that of the prototype Ebola virus/H.sapiens-tc/COD/1976/Yambuku-Mayinga (EBOV/Yam-May), in a subset of these conditions. We show that on inert, non-porous surfaces, EBOV decay rates are matrix- and environment-dependent. Among the clinically-relevant matrices tested, EBOV persisted longest in dried human blood, had limited viability in dried simulated vomit, and did not persist in feces. EBOV/Mak-C05 and EBOV/Yam-May decay rates in dried matrices were not significantly different. However, during the drying process in human blood, EBOV/Yam-May showed significantly greater loss in viability than EBOV/Mak-C05 under environmental conditions relevant to the outbreak region, and to a lesser extent in conditions relevant to an environmentally-controlled hospital room. This factor may contribute to increased communicability of EBOV/Mak-C05 when surfaces contaminated with dried human blood are the vector and may partially explain the magnitude of the most recent outbreak, compared to prior outbreaks. These EBOV persistence data will improve public health efforts by informing risk assessments, structure remediation decisions, and response procedures for future EVD outbreaks.

Presence and Persistence of Ebola or Marburg Virus in Patients and Survivors: A Rapid Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

The 2013-15 Ebola outbreak was unprecedented due to sustained transmission within urban environments and thousands of survivors. In 2014 the World Health Organization stated that there was insufficient evidence to give definitive guidance about which body fluids are infectious and when they pose a risk to humans. We report a rapid systematic review of published evidence on the presence of filoviruses in body fluids of infected people and survivors.

METHODS

Scientific articles were screened for information about filovirus in human body fluids. The aim was to find primary data that suggested high likelihood of actively infectious filovirus in human body fluids (viral RNA). Eligible infections were from Marburg virus (MARV or RAVV) and Zaire, Sudan, Taï Forest and Bundibugyo species of Ebola. Cause of infection had to be laboratory confirmed (in practice either tissue culture or RT-PCR tests), or evidenced by compatible clinical history with subsequent positivity for filovirus antibodies or inflammatory factors. Data were extracted and summarized narratively.

RESULTS

6831 unique articles were found, and after screening, 33 studies were eligible. For most body fluid types there were insufficient patients to draw strong conclusions, and prevalence of positivity was highly variable. Body fluids taken >16 days after onset were usually negative. In the six studies that used both assay methods RT-PCR tests for filovirus RNA gave positive results about 4 times more often than tissue culture.

CONCLUSIONS

Filovirus was reported in most types of body fluid, but not in every sample from every otherwise confirmed patient. Apart from semen, most non-blood, RT-PCR positive samples are likely to be culture negative and so possibly of low infectious risk. Nevertheless, it is not apparent how relatively infectious many body fluids are during or after illness, even when culture-positive, not least because most test results come from more severe cases. Contact with blood and blood-stained body fluids remains the major risk for disease transmission because of the known high viral loads in blood.

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ebola Virus Disease at Sub-National Level during the 2014 West Africa Epidemic: Model Scrutiny and Data Meagreness

BACKGROUND

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has infected at least 27,443 individuals and killed 11,207, based on data until 24 June, 2015, released by the World Health Organization (WHO). This outbreak has been characterised by extensive geographic spread across the affected countries Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, and by localized hotspots within these countries. The rapid recognition and quantitative assessment of localised areas of higher transmission can inform the optimal deployment of public health resources.

METHODS

A variety of mathematical models have been used to estimate the evolution of this epidemic, and some have pointed out the importance of the spatial heterogeneity apparent from incidence maps. However, little is known about the district-level transmission. Given that many response decisions are taken at sub-national level, the current study aimed to investigate the spatial heterogeneity by using a different modelling framework, built on publicly available data at district level. Furthermore, we assessed whether this model could quantify the effect of intervention measures and provide predictions at a local level to guide public health action. We used a two-stage modelling approach: a) a flexible spatiotemporal growth model across all affected districts and b) a deterministic SEIR compartmental model per district whenever deemed appropriate.

FINDINGS

Our estimates show substantial differences in the evolution of the outbreak in the various regions of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, illustrating the importance of monitoring the outbreak at district level. We also provide an estimate of the time-dependent district-specific effective reproduction number, as a quantitative measure to compare transmission between different districts and give input for informed decisions on control measures and resource allocation. Prediction and assessing the impact of control measures proved to be difficult without more accurate data. In conclusion, this study provides us a useful tool at district level for public health, and illustrates the importance of collecting and sharing data.

Postmortem stability of Ebola virus

The ongoing Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa has highlighted questions regarding stability of the virus and detection of RNA from corpses. We used Ebola virus–infected macaques to model humans who died of Ebola virus disease. Viable virus was isolated <7 days posteuthanasia; viral RNA was detectable for 10 weeks.