The increasing unemployment gap between the low and high educated in West Germany. Structural or cyclical crowding-out?

This paper addresses trends in education-specific unemployment risks at labor market entry in West Germany from the mid-1970s to the present. In line with previous research it shows that vocationally qualified school-leavers have relatively lower unemployment risks than school-leavers with general education. Over time, the gap in unemployment risks between the low-educated and medium- and highly educated labor market entrants substantially widened for both sexes. The literature identifies two different mechanisms for this trend: structural or cyclical crowding out. While in the former scenario low-educated become increasingly unemployed due to an oversupply of tertiary graduates and displacement from above, in the latter their relative unemployment risk varies with the business cycle. The results provide evidence for cyclical rather than structural crowding-out in West Germany. Since macroeconomic conditions became generally worse over time, this strongly explains the widening unemployment gap between the low-educated and all other education groups.

The influence of the economic crisis on the association between unemployment and health: an empirical analysis for Spain

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the impact of (particularly long-term) unemployment on the overall and mental health of the Spanish working-age population and to check whether the effects of unemployment on health have increased or been tempered as a consequence of the economic crisis.

METHODS

We apply a matching technique to cross-sectional microdata from the Spanish Health Survey for the years 2006 and 2011-2012 to estimate the average treatment effect of unemployment on self-assessed health (SAH) in the last year, mental problems in the last year and on the mental health risk in the short term. We also use a differences-in-differences estimation method between the two periods to check if the impact of unemployment on health depends on the economic context.

RESULTS

Unemployment has a significant negative impact on both SAH and mental health. This impact is particularly high for the long-term unemployed. With respect to the impact on mental health, negative effects significantly worsen with the economic crisis. For the full model, the changes in effects of long-term unemployment on mental problems and mental health risk are, respectively, 0.35 (CI 0.19-0.50) and 0.20 (CI 0.07-0.34).

CONCLUSIONS

Anxiety and stress about the future associated with unemployment could have a large impact on individuals' health. It may be necessary to prevent health deterioration in vulnerable groups such as the unemployed, and also to monitor specific health risks that arise in recessions, such as psychological problems.

Aggregation and the estimated effects of economic conditions on health

This paper considers the relationship between economic conditions and health with a focus on different approaches to geographic aggregation. After reviewing the tradeoffs associated with more- and less-disaggregated analyses, I update earlier state-level analyses of mortality and infant health and then consider how the estimated effects vary when the analysis is conducted at differing levels of geographic aggregation. This analysis reveals that the results are sensitive to the level of geographic aggregation with more-disaggregated analyses-particularly county-level analyses-routinely producing estimates that are smaller in magnitude. Further analyses suggest this is due to spillover effects of economic conditions on health outcomes across counties.

The impact of the macroeconomy on health insurance coverage: evidence from the Great Recession

This paper investigates the impact of the macroeconomy on the health insurance coverage of Americans using panel data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation for 2004-2010, a period that includes the Great Recession of 2007-2009. We find that a one percentage point increase in the state unemployment rate is associated with a 1.67 percentage point (2.12%) reduction in the probability that men have health insurance; this effect is strongest among college-educated, white, and older (50-64 years old) men. For women and children, health insurance coverage is not significantly correlated with the unemployment rate, which may be the result of public health insurance acting as a social safety net. Compared with the previous recession, the health insurance coverage of men is more sensitive to the unemployment rate, which may be due to the nature of the Great Recession.

Psychological well-being during the great recession: changes in mental health care utilization in an occupational cohort

OBJECTIVES

We examined the mental health effects of the Great Recession of 2008 to 2009 on workers who remained continuously employed and insured.

METHODS

We examined utilization trends for mental health services and medications during 2007 to 2012 among a panel of workers in the 25 largest plants, located in 15 states, of a US manufacturing firm. We used piecewise regression to compare trends from 2007 to 2010 in service and medication use before and after 2009, the year of mass layoffs at the firm and the peak of the recession. Our models accounted for changes in county-level unemployment rates and individual-level fixed effects.

RESULTS

Mental health inpatient and outpatient visits and the yearly supply of mental health-related medications increased among all workers after 2009. The magnitude of the increase in medication usage was higher for workers at plants with more layoffs.

CONCLUSIONS

The negative effects of the recession on mental health extend to employed individuals, a group considered at lower risk of psychological distress.

Estimates of price and income elasticity in Greece. Greek debt crisis transforming cigarettes into a luxury good: an econometric approach

OBJECTIVE

During the past decades, smoking prevalence in Greece was estimated to be near or over 40%. Following a sharp fall in cigarette consumption, as shown in current data, our objective is to assess smokers' sensitivity to cigarette price and consumer income changes as well as to project health benefits of an additional tax increase.

METHODS

Cigarette consumption was considered as the dependent variable, with Weighted Average Price as a proxy for cigarette price, gross domestic product as a proxy for consumers' income and dummy variables reflecting smoking restrictions and antismoking campaigns. Values were computed to natural logarithms and regression was performed. Then, four scenarios of tax increase were distinguished in order to calculate potential health benefits.

RESULTS

Short-run price elasticity is estimated at -0.441 and short-run income elasticity is estimated at 1.040. Antismoking campaigns were found to have a statistically significant impact on consumption. Results indicate that, depending on the level of tax increase, annual per capita consumption could fall by at least 209.83 cigarettes; tax revenue could rise by more than €0.74 billion, while smokers could be reduced by up to 530 568 and at least 465 smoking-related deaths could be averted.

CONCLUSIONS

Price elasticity estimates are similar to previous studies in Greece, while income elasticity estimates are far greater. With cigarettes regarded as a luxury good, a great opportunity is presented for decisionmakers to counter smoking. Increased taxation, along with focused antismoking campaigns, law reinforcement (to ensure compliance with smoking bans) and intensive control for smuggling could invoke a massive blow to the tobacco epidemic in Greece.

Pro-cyclical mortality across socioeconomic groups and health status

Using variation across geographic regions, a number of studies from the U.S. and other developed countries have found more deaths in economic upturns and less deaths in economic downturns. We use data from regions in Norway for 1977-2008 and find the same pro-cyclical patterns. Using individual-level register data for the identical population, we find that disadvantaged socioeconomic groups are not hit harder by pro-cyclical mortality than advantaged groups. We also find that other indicators of deteriorated health (than death), like becoming disabled, are pro-cyclical. Overall, our analysis suggests that pro-cyclical mortality is rather related to deaths of people already in deteriorated health than to people of low socioeconomic status.

CRISIS, AUSTERITY, AND COHESION: EUROPE'S STAGNATING INEQUALITY

Europe's high inequality, systematically underestimated by the European Union, has been falling for many years thanks to catch-up growth in the poorer countries and despite often-increasing inequality within member states. Crisis and austerity have curbed this development, however. After inequality rose again during the Great Recession of 2009 and the subsequent brief recovery, things are now going sideways in the context of generally weak growth.

Recessions, job loss, and mortality among older US adults

OBJECTIVES

We analyzed how recessions and job loss jointly shape mortality risks among older US adults.

METHODS

We used data for 50 states from the Health and Retirement Study and selected individuals who were employed at ages 45 to 66 years during 1992 to 2011. We assessed whether job loss affects mortality risks, whether recessions moderate the effect of job loss on mortality, and whether individuals who do and do not experience job loss are differentially affected by recessions.

RESULTS

Compared with individuals not experiencing job loss, mortality risks among individuals losing their job in a recession were strongly elevated (hazard ratio = 1.6; 95% confidence interval = 1.1, 2.3). Job loss during normal times or booms is not associated with mortality. For employed workers, we found a reduction in mortality risks if local labor market conditions were depressed, but this result was not consistent across different model specifications.

CONCLUSIONS

Recessions increase mortality risks among older US adults who experience job loss. Health professionals and policymakers should target resources to this group during recessions. Future research should clarify which health conditions are affected by job loss during recessions and whether access to health care following job loss moderates this relation.

Suicide in Italy during a time of economic recession: some recent data related to age and gender based on a nationwide register study

Previous research reported that economic crises may have important implications for increasing suicide rates. We investigated official data on completed suicide in Italy during the recent economic crisis as related to age and gender. Data were extracted from the Italian Mortality Database. The trend in suicide rates from 1980 to 2010 (the most recent year available) was analysed by joinpoint regression analysis. Rate ratios were calculated to compare suicide rates before and after the present economic crisis. Suicide rates for men 25-64 years of age (those involved in the labour force) started to increase in 2008 after a period of a statistically significant decrease from 1994 to 2007 and their suicide rate was 12% higher in 2010 compared with that in 2006. In contrast, suicide rates declined for women of all ages and for men younger than 25 and older than 65 years of age. After 2007, there was a noticeable increase in suicide rates among Italian men involved in the labour force.

The effect of job loss on body weight during an economic collapse

Studies on the relationship between unemployment and body weight show a positive relationship between Body Mass Index (BMI) and unemployment at the individual level, while aggregate unemployment is negatively related to a population's average BMI. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between job loss and changes in body weight following the Icelandic economic collapse of 2008. The analysis relies on a health and lifestyle survey "Heilsa og líðan", carried out by The Public Health Institute of Iceland in the years 2007 and 2009. The sample is a stratified random sample of 9,807 Icelanders between the ages of 18 and 79, with a net response rate of 42.1% for individuals responding in both waves. A linear regression model was used when estimating the relationship between job loss following the economic collapse and changes in body weight. Family income and mental health were explored as mediators. Point estimates indicated that both men and women gain less weight in the event of a job loss relative to those who retained their employment. The coefficients of job loss were only statistically significant for females, but not in the male population. The results from all three models were inconsistent with results from other studies where job loss has been found to increase body weight. However, body weight has been shown to be procyclical, and the fact that the data used were gathered during a severe economic downturn might separate these results from earlier findings.

Do generous unemployment benefit programs reduce suicide rates? A state fixed-effect analysis covering 1968-2008

The recent economic recession has led to increases in suicide, but whether US state unemployment insurance programs ameliorate this association has not been examined. Exploiting US state variations in the generosity of benefit programs between 1968 and 2008, we tested the hypothesis that more generous unemployment benefit programs reduce the impact of economic downturns on suicide. Using state linear fixed-effect models, we found a negative additive interaction between unemployment rates and benefits among the US working-age (20-64 years) population (β = -0.57, 95% confidence interval: -0.86, -0.27; P < 0.001). The finding of a negative additive interaction was robust across multiple model specifications. Our results suggest that the impact of unemployment rates on suicide is offset by the presence of generous state unemployment benefit programs, though estimated effects are small in magnitude.

The fallacies in arguing that current high unemployment in Spain (27%) is a consequence of supposed labor market rigidities

This article refutes the argument that high unemployment in Spain is due to labor market rigidities, questioning the premises on which this theory is based. It then goes on to explain how those advancing this argument are the very same forces responsible for the macroeconomic decisions that are currently causing unemployment.

The home foreclosure crisis and rising suicide rates, 2005 to 2010

OBJECTIVES

We examined the association between state-level foreclosure and suicide rates from 2005 to 2010 and considered variation in the effect of foreclosure on suicide by age.

METHODS

We used hybrid random- and fixed-effects models to examine the relation between state foreclosure rates and total and age-specific suicide rates from 2005 to 2010 (n = 306 state-years).

RESULTS

Net of other factors, an increase in the within-state total foreclosure rate was associated with a within-state increase in the crude suicide rates (b = 0.04; P < .1), and effects were stronger for the real estate-owned foreclosure rate (b = 0.16; P < .05). Analysis of age-specific suicide rates indicated that the effects were strongest among the middle-aged (46-64 years: total foreclosure rate, b = 0.21; P < .001; real estate-owned foreclosure rate, b = 0.83; P < .001). Rising home foreclosure rates explained 18% of the variance in the middle-aged suicide rate between 2005 and 2010.

CONCLUSIONS

The foreclosure crisis has likely contributed to increased suicides, independent of other economic factors associated with the recession. Rising foreclosure rates may be partially responsible for the recent uptick in suicide among middle-aged adults.

Economic contraction and maternal health behaviors during pregnancy in a national sample of U.S. women

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to examine associations between maternal exposure to unexpected economic contraction and health behaviors during pregnancy using methods to account for impacts of economic contraction on selection into pregnancy.

METHODS

Data on health behaviors among 7074 pregnancies in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 were linked to monthly unemployment rates in maternal state of residence. The study examined associations between exposure to unexpected economic contraction (higher than expected state-level unemployment) during each trimester of pregnancy and maternal smoking, alcohol use, and gestational weight gain using generalized linear models.

RESULTS

Economic contraction was not associated with maternal smoking or gestational weight gain. Associations between economic contraction and maternal alcohol use differed by maternal race-ethnicity and education. Among black-non-Hispanic women, exposures to economic contraction during the first and second trimester of pregnancy were associated with a 42% (95% confidence interval, 1.08, 1.85) and 33% (95% confidence interval, 1.01, 1.74) increased risk of alcohol use, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that exposure to extreme economic contraction during pregnancy may be associated with increased use of alcohol with differences by maternal race-ethnicity and educational attainment. Economic contraction was not associated with other maternal pregnancy behaviors.

Resistant to the recession: low-income adults' maintenance of cooking and away-from-home eating behaviors during times of economic turbulence

OBJECTIVES

We examined the effects of state-level unemployment rates during the recession of 2008 on patterns of home food preparation and away-from-home (AFH) eating among low-income and minority populations.

METHODS

We analyzed pooled cross-sectional data on 118 635 adults aged 18 years or older who took part in the American Time Use Study. Multinomial logistic regression models stratified by gender were used to evaluate the associations between state-level unemployment, poverty, race/ethnicity, and time spent cooking, and log binomial regression was used to assess respondents' AFH consumption patterns.

RESULTS

High state-level unemployment was associated with only trivial increases in respondents' cooking patterns and virtually no change in their AFH eating patterns. Low-income and racial/ethnic minority groups were not disproportionately affected by the recession.

CONCLUSIONS

Even during a major economic downturn, US adults are resistant to food-related behavior change. More work is needed to understand whether this reluctance to change is attributable to time limits, lack of knowledge or skill related to food preparation, or lack of access to fresh produce and raw ingredients.

[Attempted suicide during the financial crisis in Athens]

Suicidal behavior is considered as the result of complex cognitive and emotional processes and it is a timeless, global and multifactorial phenomenon. Periods of financial crises in the past, such as the Great Depression in the USA in 1929 and the economic crises of Asia, Russia and Argentina in the late 1990s, have been associated with impairment of mental health of the economically affected. Unemployment, job insecurity, debts, poverty and social exclusion seems to lead to higher incidence of anxiety and depressive symptoms and increased suicidality. Alcohol and substance use and the reduction of the state budget for health services reinforce the negative effects of the economic recession on mental health. The financial crisis which currently affects many European countries began in 2008 and its impact on the mental health of European citizens is in progress. Greece is probably the most affected country by the European financial crisis. The aim of this study is to investigate the potential impact of the crisis' consequences on the attempted suicide rates in the Athens population and the differentiation of suicide attempters on social, demographic and clinical-psychopathological parameters during the crisis. A retrospective study was conducted. The semi-structured records of 165 attempters who were hospitalized in the Internal Medicine Clinics of the "Sotiria" General Hospital in Athens, after attempted suicide in the years 2007 and 2011, before and during the financial crisis respectively, were studied. Among suicide attempters 95(57.6%) were suffering from mental disorders. Most often diagnoses were these of mood disorders (n=60, 63.2%). Demographic data, current psychiatric disorder, previous suicide attempt and severity of psychopathology at the time of suicide attempt were recorded for each patient. Furthermore, the severity of each suicide attempt was estimated. Suicide attempts were 70 in 2007, before the financial crisis (mean age 36.9 years, 71% women) and 95 in 2011, during the financial crisis (mean age 41.0 years, women 65%). There is an increase of suicide attempts by 35.71%. There were no statistically significant differences between the two periods regarding the gender and age of attempters. There was a statistically significant increase of unemployed (p=0.004), as well as of married/widowed/divorced (p=0.02) suicide attempters during the crisis. There was not statistically significant difference in the severity of suicide attempts before and during the economic crisis or the severity of psychopathology of the attempters. The financial crisis is probably associated with upward trend in attempted suicide of the Athens population. Most affected are those who are unemployed, married, widowed, divorced. Suicide prevention programs are essential for the accurate and timely identification and the immediate and effective management of this special high risk group of attempters during the financial crisis.

Using quantile regression to examine health care expenditures during the Great Recession

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and health care expenditures along the health care spending distribution, with a focus on racial/ethnic disparities.

DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING

Secondary data analyses of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2005-2006 and 2008-2009).

STUDY DESIGN

Quantile multivariate regressions are employed to measure the different associations between the economic recession of 2007-2009 and health care spending. Race/ethnicity and interaction terms between race/ethnicity and a recession indicator are controlled to examine whether minorities encountered disproportionately lower health spending during the economic recession.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The Great Recession was significantly associated with reductions in health care expenditures at the 10th-50th percentiles of the distribution, but not at the 75th-90th percentiles. Racial and ethnic disparities were more substantial at the lower end of the health expenditure distribution; however, on average the reduction in expenditures was similar for all race/ethnic groups. The Great Recession was also positively associated with spending on emergency department visits.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that the relationship between the Great Recession and health care spending varied along the health expenditure distribution. More variability was observed in the lower end of the health spending distribution compared to the higher end.

Breast and cervical screening by race/ethnicity: comparative analyses before and during the Great Recession

BACKGROUND

Traditionally, economic recessions have resulted in decreased utilization of preventive health services.

PURPOSE

To explore racial and ethnic differences in breast and cervical cancer screening rates before and during the Great Recession.

METHODS

The Medical Expenditure Panel was the source for identifying 10,894 women, ages 50-74 for breast screening and 19,957 women, ages 21-65 for cervical screening. Survey years included 2004-2005 and 2009-2010. Dependent variables were as follows: 1) receipt of mammogram within the past 2 years; and 2) receipt of a Pap smear within the past 3 years. The interaction of the recession and the likelihood of screening between whites and minorities was analyzed. Multivariate regressions were applied to estimate the likelihood of screening for the two time periods while controlling for a recession variable.

RESULTS

Nationally, breast and cervical cancer screening rates dropped during the recession period; white women contributed most to the decline. However, there were significant improvements in timely screening for both cancers among Hispanics during the recession period. After controlling for the recession, African American women were more likely to have timely screenings compared to white women. Screening rates during the recession were lowest in the South, Midwest and West.

CONCLUSION

There was a national reduction in the percentages of women who obtained timely breast and cervical screenings during the Great Recession. Outreach efforts are needed to ensure that women who were not screened during the recession are screened. Widespread education about the Affordable Care Act may be helpful.

Was the economic crisis of 2008 good for Icelanders? Impact on health behaviors

This study uses the 2008 economic crisis in Iceland to identify the effects of a macroeconomic downturn on a range of health behaviors. We use longitudinal survey data that include pre- and post-reports from the same individuals on a range of health-compromising and health-promoting behaviors. We find that the crisis led to large and significant reductions in health-compromising behaviors (such as smoking, drinking alcohol or soft drinks, and eating sweets) and certain health-promoting behaviors (consumption of fruits and vegetables), but to increases in other health-promoting behaviors (consumption of fish oil and recommended sleep). The magnitudes of effects for smoking are somewhat larger than what has been found in past research in other contexts, while those for alcohol, fruits, and vegetables are in line with estimates from other studies. Changes in work hours, real income, financial assets, mortgage debt, and mental health, together, explain the effects of the crisis on some behaviors (such as consumption of sweets and fast food), while the effects of the crisis on most other behaviors appear to have operated largely through price increases.

Population health concerns during the United States' Great Recession

BACKGROUND

Associations between economic conditions and health are usually derived from cost-intensive surveys that are intermittently collected with nonspecific measures (i.e., self-rated health).

PURPOSE

This study identified how precise health concerns changed during the U.S. Great Recession analyzing Google search queries to identify the concern by the query content and their prevalence by the query volume.

METHODS

Excess health concerns were estimated during the Great Recession (December 2008 through 2011) by comparing the cumulative difference between observed and expected (based on linear projections from pre-existing trends) query volume for hundreds of individual terms. As performed in 2013, the 100 queries with the greatest excess were ranked and then clustered into themes based on query content.

RESULTS

The specific queries with the greatest relative excess were stomach ulcer symptoms and headache symptoms, respectively, 228% (95% CI=35, 363) and 193% (95% CI=60, 275) greater than expected. Queries typically involved symptomology (i.e., gas symptoms) and diagnostics (i.e., heart monitor) naturally coalescing into themes. Among top themes, headache queries were 41% (95% CI=3, 148); hernia 37% (95% CI=16, 142); chest pain 35% (95% CI=6, 313); and arrhythmia 32% (95% CI=3, 149) greater than expected. Pain was common with back, gastric, joint, and tooth foci, with the latter 19% (95% CI=4, 46) higher. Among just the top 100, there were roughly 205 million excess health concern queries during the Great Recession.

CONCLUSIONS

Google queries indicate that the Great Recession coincided with substantial increases in health concerns, hinting at how population health specifically changed during that time.

New York State after last recession. Dentists and dental establishments

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the New York State Office of the Professions indicate an increase in emigration and immigration, resulting in slowing in the overall growth of New York State's population, with accompanying modifications in the numbers of dentists and dental establishments in state counties. In addition, ADA data suggest that per capita dental spending has not rebounded since the end of the last recession. While there have been many changes at the county level, there does not seem to have been dramatic changes in the overall state numbers of dental practitioners and establishments through the early years of the current decade.