Scleroderma prevalence: demographic variations in a population-based sample

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of systemic sclerosis (SSc) using population-based administrative data, and to assess the sensitivity of case ascertainment approaches.

METHODS

We ascertained SSc cases from Quebec physician billing and hospitalization databases (covering approximately 7.5 million individuals). Three case definition algorithms were compared, and statistical methods accounting for imperfect case ascertainment were used to estimate SSc prevalence and case ascertainment sensitivity. A hierarchical Bayesian latent class regression model that accounted for possible between-test dependence conditional on disease status estimated the effect of patient characteristics on SSc prevalence and the sensitivity of the 3 ascertainment algorithms.

RESULTS

Accounting for error inherent in both the billing and the hospitalization data, we estimated SSc prevalence in 2003 at 74.4 cases per 100,000 women (95% credible interval [95% CrI] 69.3-79.7) and 13.3 cases per 100,000 men (95% CrI 11.1-16.1). Prevalence was higher for older individuals, particularly in urban women (161.2 cases per 100,000, 95% CrI 148.6-175.0). Prevalence was lowest in young men (in rural areas, as low as 2.8 cases per 100,000, 95% CrI 1.4-4.8). In general, no single algorithm was very sensitive, with point estimates for sensitivity ranging from 20-73%.

CONCLUSION

We found marked differences in SSc prevalence according to age, sex, and region. In general, no single case ascertainment approach was very sensitive for SSc. Therefore, using data from multiple sources, with adjustment for the imperfect nature of each, is an important strategy in population-based studies of SSc and similar conditions.

Mammographically non-calcified ductal carcinoma in situ: sonographic features with pathological correlation in 35 patients

AIM

To present the sonographic findings of mammographically non-calcified ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) with histopathologic correlation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The mammographic and ultrasonographic presentations of 47 radiographically non-calcified DCIS lesions in 35 patients were retrospectively analysed. Histological characteristics (architectural appearance, nuclear grade, percent of involved lobules, and presence of necrosis) were reviewed.

RESULTS

Seventeen lesions were not mammographically visible (17/47, 36%). Ultrasonographically, these lesions showed an irregular shape (28/47, 60%), microlobulated margins (34/47, 72%) and abrupt interfaces (42/47, 90%). Only 11% (5/47) displayed posterior shadowing. The echotexture of these lesions was most frequently complex (29/47, 62%); therefore, they were divided into two types: type I (24 cases), which were predominantly solid with cystic components, and type II (five cases), which were predominantly cystic with a solid intra-cystic component. A trend to have greater than 50% DCIS cells in cancerous lobules was observed in masses displaying type I echotexture (difference=36%, 95% confidence interval 10.6-62.5) and microlobulated margins (difference=32%, 95% confidence interval 5.1-58.7).

CONCLUSION

Ultrasonographically detected radiographically non-calcified DCIS commonly displays an irregular shape, microlobulated margins, and complex echotexture, giving a "pseudomicrocystic" appearance. Microlobulated margins and "pseudomicrocystic" echotexture seem to be associated with a cancerization of the lobules.

Application of a nomogram for exercise capacity in women with systemic lupus erythematosus

The aim of this study is to examine the exercise capacity in women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Women with SLE underwent exercise testing; their performance was compared to nomogram predictions. We assessed the potential effects of disease activity and cumulative damage on exercise capacity. We evaluated 52 female SLE patients aged >35 years. The mean workload achieved was somewhat higher than the nomogram predictions. However, over one fifth of the women performed at a very poor level, which in the general population is associated with a twofold increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Compared to other subjects, participants who did poorly tended toward higher disease activity, higher body mass index, and greater smoking prevalence, although the results were not definitive. Exercise testing may be used to identify a subpopulation of lupus patients with a low level of fitness. Extrapolating from general population data, these individuals are likely at particular risk for cardiovascular disease and may, therefore, benefit the most from aggressive cardiovascular risk factor reduction.

Epidermal growth factor receptor-targeted therapy

High epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) expression is a feature of human tumours and is an adverse prognostic factor for radiotherapy outcome. High expression is associated with benefit from accelerated radiotherapy in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. Anti-EGFR strategies potentiate the effects of radiotherapy and the inhibition of deoxyribonucleic acid repair appears to be important amongst a wide range of mechanisms, which include effects on angiogenesis, differentiation and the immunological response. There is considerable interest in exploring combined modality therapies involving radiation and EGFR antagonists for the curative treatment of cancer patients. Important issues in designing new trials are to investigate optimal scheduling and to establish biobanks to develop biomarkers for future patient selection.

Ursodeoxycholic acid suppresses Cox-2 expression in colon cancer: roles of Ras, p38, and CCAAT/enhancer-binding protein

In the azoxymethane (AOM) model of experimental rodent colon cancer, cholic acid and its colonic metabolite deoxycholic acid (DCA) strongly promote tumorigenesis. In contrast, we showed that ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), a low abundance bile acid, inhibited AOM tumorigenesis. Dietary UDCA also blocked the development of tumors with activated Ras and suppressed cyclooxygenase-2 (Cox-2) upregulation in AOM tumors. In this study, we compared the effect of dietary supplementation with tumor-promoting cholic acid to chemopreventive UDCA on Cox-2 expression in AOM tumors. Cholic acid enhanced Cox-2 upregulation in AOM tumors, whereas UDCA inhibited this increase and concomitantly decreased CCAAT/enhancer binding protein beta (C/EBPbeta), a transcriptional regulator of Cox-2. In HCA-7 colon cancer cells, DCA activated Ras and increased C/EBPbeta and Cox-2 by a mechanism requiring the mitogen-activated protein kinase p38. UDCA inhibited DCA-induced p38 activation and decreased C/EBPbeta and Cox-2 upregulation. Using transient transfections, UDCA inhibited Cox-2 promoter and C/EBP reporter activation by DCA. Transfection with dominant-negative (17)N-Ras abolished DCA-induced p38 activation and C/EBPbeta and Cox-2 upregulation. Taken together, these studies have identified a transcriptional pathway regulating Cox-2 expression involving Ras, p38, and C/EBPbeta that is inhibited by UDCA. These signal transducers are novel targets of UDCA's chemopreventive actions.

Birth of a biome: insights into the assembly and maintenance of the Australian arid zone biota

The integration of phylogenetics, phylogeography and palaeoenvironmental studies is providing major insights into the historical forces that have shaped the Earth's biomes. Yet our present view is biased towards arctic and temperate/tropical forest regions, with very little focus on the extensive arid regions of the planet. The Australian arid zone is one of the largest desert landform systems in the world, with a unique, diverse and relatively well-studied biota. With foci on palaeoenvironmental and molecular data, we here review what is known about the assembly and maintenance of this biome in the context of its physical history, and in comparison with other mesic biomes. Aridification of Australia began in the Mid-Miocene, around 15 million years, but fully arid landforms in central Australia appeared much later, around 1-4 million years. Dated molecular phylogenies of diverse taxa show the deepest divergences of arid-adapted taxa from the Mid-Miocene, consistent with the onset of desiccation. There is evidence of arid-adapted taxa evolving from mesic-adapted ancestors, and also of speciation within the arid zone. There is no evidence for an increase in speciation rate during the Pleistocene, and most arid-zone species lineages date to the Pliocene or earlier. The last 0.8 million years have seen major fluctuations of the arid zone, with large areas covered by mobile sand dunes during glacial maxima. Some large, vagile taxa show patterns of recent expansion and migration throughout the arid zone, in parallel with the ice sheet-imposed range shifts in Northern Hemisphere taxa. Yet other taxa show high lineage diversity and strong phylogeographical structure, indicating persistence in multiple localised refugia over several glacial maxima. Similar to the Northern Hemisphere, Pleistocene range shifts have produced suture zones, creating the opportunity for diversification and speciation through hybridisation, polyploidy and parthenogenesis. This review highlights the opportunities that development of arid conditions provides for rapid and diverse evolutionary radiations, and re-enforces the emerging view that Pleistocene environmental change can have diverse impacts on genetic structure and diversity in different biomes. There is a clear need for more detailed and targeted phylogeographical studies of Australia's arid biota and we suggest a framework and a set of a priori hypotheses by which to proceed.

Epidermal growth factor receptor controls flat dysplastic aberrant crypt foci development and colon cancer progression in the rat azoxymethane model

PURPOSE

Colonic carcinogenesis deranges growth-regulating epidermal growth factor receptors (EGFR). We previously showed that EGFR signals were up-regulated in human aberrant crypt foci (ACF), putative colon cancer precursors. The azoxymethane model of colon cancer recapitulates many aspects of human colonic tumors. Recent studies indicate that flat dysplastic ACF with increased beta-catenin are tumor precursors in this model. We asked, therefore, if EGFR signals are required for flat dysplastic ACF development and cancer progression.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Rats received azoxymethane or saline, and standard chow or chow supplemented with gefitinib, an EGFR inhibitor, for 44 weeks. EGFR signals were quantified in normal colon, flat ACF, and tumors by computerized analysis of immunostains and Western blots. K-ras mutations were assessed by PCR and mRNA for egfr ligands by quantitative real-time PCR.

RESULTS

EGFR inhibition with gefitinib decreased the incidence of flat dysplastic ACF from 66% to 36% and tumors from 71% to 22% (P < 0.05). This inhibitor also reduced the overexpressions of cyclin D1 and Cox-2 in flat ACF. Furthermore, in flat ACF, EGFR blockade decreased the up-regulation of c-Jun, FosB, phosphorylated active signal transducers and activators of transcription 3, and CCAAT/enhancer binding protein-beta, potential regulators of cyclin D1 and Cox-2. In colonic tumors, EGFR blockade significantly decreased angiogenesis, proliferation, and progression while also increasing apoptosis (P < 0.05). Gefitinib also inhibited the activations of extracellular signal-regulated kinase, Src, and AKT pathways in tumors.

CONCLUSIONS

We have shown for the first time that EGFR promotes the development of flat dysplastic ACF and the progression of malignant colonic tumors. Furthermore, we have mechanistically identified several transcription factors and their targets as EGFR effectors in colonic carcinogenesis.

SLE patients with renal damage incur higher health care costs

OBJECTIVES

To compare costs and quality of life (QoL) between SLE patients with and without renal damage.

METHODS

Seven hundred and fifteen patients were surveyed semi-annually over 4 yrs on health care use and productivity loss and annually on QoL. Cumulative direct and indirect costs (2006 Canadian dollars) and QoL (average annual change in SF-36) were compared between patients with and without renal damage [Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/ACR Damage Index (SLICC/ACR DI)] using simultaneous regressions.

RESULTS

At study conclusion, for patients with the renal subscale of the SLICC/ACR DI = 0 (n = 634), 1 (n = 54), 2 (n = 15) and 3 (n = 12), mean 4-yr cumulative direct costs per patient (95% CI) were $20,337 ($18,815, $21,858), $27,869 ($19,230, $36,509), $51,191 ($23,463, $78,919) and $99,544 ($57,102, $141,987), respectively. In a regression where the renal subscale of the SLICC/ACR DI was a single indicator variable, on average (95% CI), each unit increase in renal damage was associated with a 24% (15%, 33%) increase in direct costs. In a regression where each level in the renal subscale was an indicator variable, patients with end-stage renal disease incurred 103% (65%, 141%) higher direct costs than those without renal damage. Cumulative indirect costs and annual change in the SF-36 summary scores did not differ between patients.

CONCLUSIONS

SLE patients with renal damage incurred higher direct costs, but did not experience a poorer QoL. QoL may be more influenced by concurrent renal activity than accumulated renal damage, which can occur at any time and patients may gradually habituate to their compromised health state.

A population-based assessment of systemic lupus erythematosus incidence and prevalence--results and implications of using administrative data for epidemiological studies

OBJECTIVES

To estimate (i) systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) incidence and prevalence using multiple sources of population-based administrative data; (ii) the sensitivity and specificity of case ascertainment methods; and (iii) variation in performance of each ascertainment approach, according to patient and physician characteristics.

METHODS

We examined the physician billing and hospitalization databases of the province of Quebec (1994-2003) covering all health care beneficiaries (approximately 7.5 million). We compared various approaches to ascertain SLE cases, using information from each database separately or combining sources; we then estimated the sensitivity and specificity of these alternative approaches. We used regression models to determine if sensitivity was independently influenced by patient or physician characteristics.

RESULTS

Using billing data, we calculated SLE incidence at 3.0/100,000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.6-3.4]; prevalence was 32.8/100,000 persons, in 2003. Results were similar using hospitalization data. However, only a proportion of prevalent cases were identified as having SLE by both methods. Combining cases from billing and hospitalization data, we found a prevalence of 51/100,000 in 2003. Our latent class regression model estimated a prevalence of 44.7/100,000 (95% CI 37.4-54.7). We found high specificity for SLE diagnoses across all strategies and data sources; sensitivity ranged from 42.1% to 67.6%, and was independently influenced by both patient and physician characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

In observational studies, particularly with administrative databases, SLE incidence and prevalence estimates differ considerably, according to the approach for case ascertainment. In the absence of gold standards, statistical modelling can provide sensitivity and specificity estimates for different approaches.

The relationship between cancer and medication exposures in systemic lupus erythaematosus: a case-cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To examine if, in systemic lupus erythaematosus (SLE), exposure to immunosuppressive therapy (cyclophosphamide, azathioprine, methotrexate) increases cancer risk.

METHODS

A case-cohort study was performed within a multi-site international SLE cohort; subjects were linked to regional tumour registries to determine cancer cases occurring after entry into the cohort. We calculated the hazard ratio (HR) for cancer after exposure to an immunosuppressive drug, in models that controlled for other medications (anti-malarial drugs, systemic glucocorticoids, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), aspirin), smoking, age, sex, race/ethnicity, geographic location, calendar year, SLE duration, and lupus damage scores. In the primary analyses, exposures were treated categorically (ever/never) and as time-dependent.

RESULTS

Results are presented from 246 cancer cases and 538 controls without cancer. The adjusted HR for overall cancer risk after any immunosuppressive drug was 0.82 (95% CI 0.50-1.36). Age > or = 65, and the presence of non-malignancy damage were associated with overall cancer risk. For lung cancer (n = 35 cases), smoking was also a prominent risk factor. When looking at haematological cancers specifically (n = 46 cases), there was a suggestion of an increased risk after immunosuppressive drug exposures, particularly when these were lagged by a period of 5 years (adjusted HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.02-5.15).

CONCLUSIONS

In our SLE sample, age > or = 65, damage, and tobacco exposure were associated with cancer risk. Though immunosuppressive therapy may not be the principal driving factor for overall cancer risk, it may contribute to an increased risk of haematological malignancies. Future studies are in progress to evaluate independent influence of medication exposures and disease activity on risk of malignancy.

Prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infection among animals in fifty villages of Samar province, the Philippines

In the Philippines, there is a need to understand the contribution of different domestic and wild animals in transmitting Schistosoma japonicum infection to humans better. The current study describes variation in animal S. japonicum prevalence across 50 endemic villages of Samar Province, the Philippines. A total of 50 villages were selected, 25 with predominantly rain-fed farms and 25 with some irrigation system. At least 35 cats, dogs, pigs, and water buffaloes each were randomly selected and 30 rat traps were set in each village. Fecal samples were collected for up to three consecutive days for each species. The Danish Bilharziasis Laboratory method (DBL method) was used to determine S. japonicum infection status. A hierarchical logistic regression model with clustering by village and with adjustment for measurement error of the DBL method was used to estimate the prevalence of infection per village and species. Stool samples were collected from 23.4% (1189), 28.6% (1274), 36.3% (1899), and 49.4% (873) of the censused dogs, cats, pigs, and water buffaloes, respectively, and from 663 rats. The adjusted prevalence of S. japonicum infection varied greatly across villages ranging from 1.6% (95% Bayesian Credible Interval: 0.1%-10.2%) to 86.3% (65.9%-97.8%) for dogs, from 0.1% (0%-2.1%) to 21.7% (4.7%-51.2%) for cats, from 0.01% (0.0%%-1.0%) to 18.4% (7.1%-34.7%) for pigs, from less than 0.1% (0.0%-1.2%) to 72.5% (46.0%-97.4%) for water buffaloes, and from 0.7% (0.0%-9.0%) to 95.4% (77.2%-99.9%) for rats. This is the most comprehensive study of animal S. japonicum infection conducted to date. Our results show that, unlike what has been reported in China, very few water buffaloes were infected whereas rats and dogs show high prevalence proportions of infection. This, combined with significant village-to-village variation in prevalence of S. japonicum infection, suggest possible different transmission dynamics of the infection in the Province of Samar in the Philippines and China.

A vitamin D analogue inhibits colonic carcinogenesis in the AOM/DSS model

BACKGROUND

The azoxymethane (AOM) model recapitulates many features of human colon cancer, lacking an inflammatory component. Dextran sulfate sodium (DSS) induces colitis and promotes AOM-induced colon cancer in mice. Vitamin D analogues are anti-inflammatory and chemopreventive in models of colon cancer. Our aim was to evaluate the anti-inflammatory and chemopreventive efficacy of the vitamin D analogue Ro26-2198 in the AOM/DSS model and in vitro in HCA-7 colon cancer cells.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A/J mice received Ro26-2198 (0.01 microg/kg body wt/day x 28 days) or vehicle by mini-osmotic pump. Animals were treated with a single dose of AOM (5 mg/kg body wt) or vehicle 1 week after pump insertion. Mice received 3% DSS or water x 7 days beginning week 3. Animals were sacrificed after 8 weeks and colon segments were fixed in formalin or flash-frozen. Hematoxylin and eosin colonic sections were examined for dysplasia and colonic lysates were assessed for c-Myc, cyclooxygenase 2, and phospho-(active) extracellular signal regulated kinase (ERK) by Western blotting. For in vitro studies, HCA-7 cells were treated with Ro26-2198 followed by interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta). Proliferation was measured by WST-1 assay.

RESULTS

Ro26-2198 delayed the onset of clinical colitis. Several dysplastic foci were present in the AOM/DSS group; none were found in the Ro26-2198 group. Compared with control, AOM/DSS significantly increased c-Myc (15-fold), cyclooxygenase 2 (COX-2) (2.5-fold), and pERK (10-fold), and Ro26-2198 abolished these increases. In vitro, Ro26-2198 inhibited IL-1beta-induced ERK activation and COX-2 induction and decreased HCA-7 cell proliferation.

CONCLUSIONS

Ro26-2198 inhibited proliferative (ERK, c-Myc) and pro-inflammatory (COX-2) signals and progression to dysplasia, suggesting chemopreventive efficacy in this model of colitis-associated carcinogenesis.

Epidermal growth factor receptor signaling is required for microadenoma formation in the mouse azoxymethane model of colonic carcinogenesis

Colonic carcinogenesis involves the progressive dysregulation of homeostatic mechanisms that control growth. The epidermal growth factor (EGF) receptor (EGFR) regulates colonocyte growth and differentiation and is overexpressed in many human colon cancers. A requirement for EGFR in colonic premalignancy, however, has not been shown. In the current study, we used a specific EGFR antagonist, gefitinib, to investigate this role of the receptor in azoxymethane colonic premalignancy. The azoxymethane model shares many clinical, histologic, and molecular features of human colon cancer. Mice received azoxymethane i.p. (5 mg/kg/wk) or saline for 6 weeks. Animals were also gavaged with gefitinib (10 mg/kg body weight) or vehicle (DMSO) thrice weekly for 18 weeks, a dose schedule that inhibited normal receptor activation by exogenous EGF. Compared with control colonocytes [bromodeoxyuridine (BrdUrd), 2.2+/-1.2%], azoxymethane significantly increased proliferation (BrdUrd, 12.6+/-2.8%), whereas gefitinib inhibited this hyperproliferation (BrdUrd, 6.2+/-4.0%; <0.005). Azoxymethane significantly induced pro-transforming growth factor-alpha (6.4+/-1.3-fold) and increased phospho-(active) EGFR (5.9+/-1.1-fold), phospho-(active) ErbB2 (2.3+/-0.2-fold), and phospho-(active) extracellular signal-regulated kinase (3.3+/-0.4-fold) in premalignant colonocytes. Gefitinib inhibited activations of these kinases by >75% (P<0.05). Gefitinib also significantly reduced the number of large aberrant crypt foci and decreased the incidence of colonic microadenomas from 75% to 33% (P<0.05). Gefitinib concomitantly decreased cell cycle-regulating cyclin D1 and prostanoid biosynthetic enzyme cyclooxygenase-2 in microadenomas, suggesting that these regulators are key targets of EGFR in colonic carcinogenesis. These results show for the first time that EGFR signaling is required for early stages of colonic carcinogenesis. Our findings suggest, moreover, that inhibitors of EGFR might be useful in chemopreventive strategies in individuals at increased risk for colonic malignancies.

Hodgkin's lymphoma in systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

In systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), there is a well-documented increased risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), but little is known about the risk of Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL). The purpose of our work was to describe the phenomenon of HL in SLE.

METHODS

A multi-site cohort of 9547 SLE subjects was assembled; HL cases were ascertained through cancer registry linkage, and the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for HL was determined. We also performed a literature search for HL cases in SLE, and compared these with our sample. Finally, we pooled results from our cohort study with two large population-based cohort studies providing SIR estimates for HL in SLE.

RESULTS

Five cases of HL occurred in our SLE cohort during the observation interval, for an SIR of 2.4 (95% CI 0.8, 5.5). The literature review documented 13 HL case reports developing in patients with SLE. A pooled analysis combining our data with the other large cohort studies yielded a standardized incidence ratio of 3.16 (95% CI, 1.63-5.51) for HL in SLE.

CONCLUSIONS

Data suggest that risk in SLE is increased not only for NHL, but also for other malignancies arising from B-lymphocytes, including HL.

Prevalence of and factors associated with glucosamine use in Canada

OBJECTIVE

Glucosamine is commonly used for the treatment of osteoarthritis, and its use is increasing in the general population. The Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos) provided an opportunity to examine the prevalence of glucosamine use across age and gender groups, and to assess the factors associated with its use.

METHOD

CaMos is a random, population-based sample of 9423 Canadians. Baseline assessments took place in 1996-1997 and the 5-year follow-up assessments in 2001-2002. The primary outcome of this analysis was glucosamine use at year 5. Prevalence estimates were age- and sex-standardized to the Canadian population. A number of factors potentially associated with glucosamine use were identified from the literature. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify variables associated with glucosamine use.

RESULTS

At 5 years, complete data were available for 7652 of the original 9423 participants (81.2%). For men, glucosamine use increased from 0.9% to 4.7% (weighted values), and for women, it increased from 1.3% to 8.2%. Glucosamine use was higher among older participants, those living in western Canada, and those with arthritis, back pain, higher calcium intake from supplements, physical activity and prior glucosamine use.

CONCLUSIONS

Glucosamine use increased substantially over 5 years, and its use is associated with a number of factors. Some may use glucosamine to manage pain and symptoms of arthritis and back pain, while others use it as a preventive measure to maintain health.

Mortality in systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

To examine mortality rates in the largest systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cohort ever assembled.

METHODS

Our sample was a multisite international SLE cohort (23 centers, 9,547 patients). Deaths were ascertained by vital statistics registry linkage. Standardized mortality ratio (SMR; ratio of deaths observed to deaths expected) estimates were calculated for all deaths and by cause. The effects of sex, age, SLE duration, race, and calendar-year periods were determined.

RESULTS

The overall SMR was 2.4 (95% confidence interval 2.3-2.5). Particularly high mortality was seen for circulatory disease, infections, renal disease, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, and lung cancer. The highest SMR estimates were seen in patient groups characterized by female sex, younger age, SLE duration <1 year, or black/African American race. There was a dramatic decrease in total SMR estimates across calendar-year periods, which was demonstrable for specific causes including death due to infections and death due to renal disorders. However, the SMR due to circulatory diseases tended to increase slightly from the 1970s to the year 2001.

CONCLUSION

Our data from a very large multicenter international cohort emphasize what has been demonstrated previously in smaller samples. These results highlight the increased mortality rate in SLE patients compared with the general population, and they suggest particular risk associated with female sex, younger age, shorter SLE duration, and black/African American race. The risk for certain types of deaths, primarily related to lupus activity (such as renal disease), has decreased over time, while the risk for deaths due to circulatory disease does not appear to have diminished.