Performance of the Pooled Cohort Equations in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular disease. Whether risk scores developed in the general population accurately assess cardiovascular risk in the NAFLD population is unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) in NAFLD.

METHODS

Individuals in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis with baseline non-contrast cardiac computed tomography scans with sufficient data to determine the presence of hepatic steatosis were identified and assessed for the development of incident 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The discrimination and calibration of the PCE were evaluated, and the observed and expected events by risk category (<5%, 5-<7.5%, 7.5-<20%, ≥20%) were determined. Risk reclassification with the addition of NAFLD to the PCE was assessed.

RESULTS

Of 4014 participants included, 698 (17.4%) with NAFLD were identified, including 247 (35.3%) with moderate-to-severe steatosis. Discrimination of the PCE was suboptimal in NAFLD (c-statistic 0.69), particularly moderate-to-severe steatosis (0.65), and calibration was overall poor. While risk was overestimated in non-NAFLD, it was underestimated in NAFLD in lower/intermediate risk categories, predominantly in women (5-<7.5% observed/expected ratio = 1.67). The addition of NAFLD to the PCE improved risk classification in women.

CONCLUSIONS

The PCE overall performed suboptimally in cardiovascular risk assessment in NAFLD, particularly in women and individuals with moderate-to-severe steatosis in clinically relevant risk categories. Primary prevention may need to be considered at a lower risk threshold in these groups, and further work is needed to improve risk stratification in this growing high-risk population.

Anti-inflammatory Therapeutics and Coronary Artery Disease

It has been demonstrated that atherosclerotic disease progression is contingent upon chronic inflammation. The sequence of events leading up to plaque formation, instability, and eventual plaque rupture hinges upon the interaction of proinflammatory cytokines and fat deposition within the coronary vasculature. Over the past decade, a large body of evidence has demonstrated the efficacy of specific anti-inflammatory therapeutics in halting the progression of coronary artery disease. Despite this, these therapeutics have yet to be included in guideline-directed medical therapy regimens. This review will focus on several anti-inflammatories, which have been studied in the context of cardiovascular disease-colchicine, canakinumab, VIA-2291, and methotrexate, and will highlight the potential benefits majority hold in hindering atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease progression. This holds especially true for individuals already on optimal medical therapy who continue to be at high risk for adverse cardiovascular events.

Serum cholesterol loading capacity of macrophages is regulated by seropositivity and C-reactive protein in rheumatoid arthritis patients

OBJECTIVE

Excessive cholesterol accumulation in macrophages is the pivotal step underlying atherosclerotic plaque formation. We here explore factors in the serum of patients with RA, and mechanisms through which they interact with and influence cholesterol loading capacity (CLC) of macrophages.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional observational cohort of 104 patients with RA, CLC was measured as intracellular cholesterol content in human THP-1-derived macrophages after incubation with patient serum. Low-density lipoprotein (LDL) oxidation was measured in terms of oxidized phospholipids on apoB100-containing particles (oxPL-apoB100). Antibodies against oxidized LDL (anti-oxLDL), proprotein convertase subtilisin/Kexin type-9 (PCSK9) and high-sensitivity CRP were also quantified. All analyses adjusted for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score, obesity, total LDL, statin use, age at diagnosis, and anti-oxLDL IgM.

RESULTS

OxPL-apoB100, anti-oxLDL IgG and PCSK9 were positively associated with CLC (all P < 0.020). OxPL-apoB100 directly influenced CLC only in dual RF- and ACPA-positive patients [unstandardized b (95% bootstrap CI)=2.08 (0.38, 3.79)]. An indirect effect of oxPL-apoB100 on CLC through anti-oxLDL IgG increased, along with level of CRP [index of moderated mediation = 0.55 (0.05-1.17)]. CRP also moderated yet another indirect effect of oxPL-apoB100 on CLC through upregulation of PCSK9, but only among dual-seropositive patients [conditional indirect effect = 0.64 (0.13-1.30)].

CONCLUSION

Oxidized LDL can directly influence CLC in dual-seropositive RA patients. Two additional and independent pathways-via anti-oxLDL IgG and PCSK9-may mediate the effects of oxPL-apoB100 on CLC, depending on CRP and seropositivity status. If externally validated, these findings may have clinical implications for cardiovascular risk prevention.

Association between coronary artery calcium and thoracic spine bone mineral density: Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Previously, osteoporosis and coronary artery disease were considered unrelated. However, beyond age, these two conditions appear to share common etiologies that are not yet fully understood. We examined the relationship between thoracic spine bone mineral density (BMD) and severity of coronary artery calcium (CAC) score.

METHODS AND RESULTS

MESA is a prospective cohort study of 6814 men and women between the ages of 45 and 84 years, without clinical cardiovascular disease. This study included participants who underwent non-contrast chest CT scans to determine CAC score and thoracic spine BMD. The thoracic spine BMD was categorized into osteoporosis (defined as T score: ≤ -2.5), osteopenia (T-score between: -2.5 and -1) and normal BMD (T-score ≥ -1). There were 3392 subjects who had CAC >0 at baseline. The prevalence of CAC >0 was 36% in normal BMD group, 49% in the osteopenia and 68% in osteoporosis group. After adjusting for risk factors of atherosclerosis, in multivariate regression models we found a significant association between CAC and osteoporosis (OR: 1.40, 95% CI 1.16-1.69, p value < 0.0004). Furthermore, we stratified our results by gender and found a statistically significant association in both men and women.

CONCLUSION

Results from this cross-sectional analysis of a large population based ethnically diverse cohort indicate a significant inverse relationship between thoracic BMD and CAC in both genders independent of other cardiovascular risk factors. Future studies need to explore the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms relating BMD and coronary artery calcification.

Risk factors based vessel-specific prediction for stages of coronary artery disease using Bayesian quantile regression machine learning method: Results from the PARADIGM registry

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

The recently introduced Bayesian quantile regression (BQR) machine-learning method enables comprehensive analyzing the relationship among complex clinical variables. We analyzed the relationship between multiple cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and different stages of coronary artery disease (CAD) using the BQR model in a vessel-specific manner.

METHODS

From the data of 1,463 patients obtained from the PARADIGM (NCT02803411) registry, we analyzed the lumen diameter stenosis (DS) of the three vessels: left anterior descending (LAD), left circumflex (LCx), and right coronary artery (RCA). Two models for predicting DS and DS changes were developed. Baseline CV risk factors, symptoms, and laboratory test results were used as the inputs. The conditional 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 90% quantile functions of the maximum DS and DS change of the three vessels were estimated using the BQR model.

RESULTS

The 90th percentiles of the DS of the three vessels and their maximum DS change were 41%-50% and 5.6%-7.3%, respectively. Typical anginal symptoms were associated with the highest quantile (90%) of DS in the LAD; diabetes with higher quantiles (75% and 90%) of DS in the LCx; dyslipidemia with the highest quantile (90%) of DS in the RCA; and shortness of breath showed some association with the LCx and RCA. Interestingly, High-density lipoprotein cholesterol showed a dynamic association along DS change in the per-patient analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the clinical utility of the BQR model for evaluating the comprehensive relationship between risk factors and baseline-grade CAD and its progression.

Abstract P451: Coronary Artery Calcium and the Association Between Dietary Fish Intake and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk

Introduction: Current guidelines recommend ≥2 servings of fish/week for the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, a recent large meta-analysis suggested that the benefit may exist only for persons with a prior ASCVD event. Whether coronary artery calcium (CAC) can help to identify individuals who are likely to benefit from habitual fish consumption is unknown.

Hypothesis: CAC will stratify persons who may and may not benefit from habitual fish consumption.

Methods: There were 4977 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis who reported their frequency of fish intake and underwent CAC scanning at Visit 1. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models stratified by the presence/absence of CAC assessed the association between fish intake and incident ASCVD over a median follow-up of 15.7 years.

Results: The mean age was 61 years old, 53% were women, 26% were Black, and 49% of participants had prevalent CAC. A similar proportion of individuals reported consuming ≥2 servings of fish/week for those with CAC=0 and CAC >0 (35% versus 33%, p=0.12). The absolute ASCVD event rate for those with <2 or ≥2 servings of fish/week was 5.5 vs. 4.2 per 1,000 person-years for CAC=0 and 18.2 vs. 19.0 person-years for CAC >0 (Figure 1). Each additional serving of fish/week was associated with a 9% lower risk of ASCVD for participants with CAC=0 (HR=0.91, 95% CI: 0.83-0.99) whereas there was no significant association for persons with CAC >0 (HR=1.03, 95% CI: 0.99-1.07).

Conclusions: A higher amount of fish consumption was associated with a lower risk of incident ASCVD for participants with CAC=0, but not those with CAC >0, although the absolute ASCVD event rate was low for persons with CAC=0 regardless of fish consumption frequency.

Coronary Artery Calcium Density and Cardiovascular Events by Volume Level: The MESA

BACKGROUND

The Agatston coronary artery calcium (CAC) score provides robust cardiovascular disease risk prediction but upweights plaque area by a density factor. Density, however, has been shown to be inversely associated with events. Using CAC volume and density separately improves risk prediction, but it is unclear how to apply this method clinically. We aimed to evaluate the association between CAC density and cardiovascular disease across the spectrum of CAC volume to better understand how to incorporate these metrics into a single score.

METHODS

We performed an analysis of MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) participants with detectable CAC to evaluate the association between CAC density and events by level of CAC volume using multivariable Cox regression models.

RESULTS

In a cohort of 3316 participants, there was a significant interaction (P<0.001) between CAC volume and density for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk (myocardial infarction, CHD death, resuscitated cardiac arrest). Models using CAC volume and density resulted in improvement in the C-index (0.703, SE 0.012 versus 0.687, SE 0.013) and a significant net reclassification improvement (0.208 [95% CI, 0.102-0.306]) compared with the Agatston score for CHD risk prediction. Density was significantly associated with lower CHD risk at volumes ≤130 mm3 (hazard ratio, 0.57 per unit of density [95% CI, 0.43-0.75]), but the inverse association at volumes >130 mm3 was not significant (hazard ratio, 0.82 per unit of density [95% CI, 0.55-1.22]).

CONCLUSIONS

The lower risk for CHD associated with higher CAC density varied by level of volume, and volume ≤130 mm3 is a potentially clinically useful cut point. Further study is needed to integrate these findings into a unified CAC scoring method.

Prognostic Significance of Nonobstructive Left Main Coronary Artery Disease in Patients With and Without Diabetes: Long-Term Outcomes From the CONFIRM Registry

BACKGROUND

Prognostic significance of non-obstructive left main (LM) disease was recently reported. However, the influence of diabetes mellitus (DM) on event rates in patients with and without non-obstructive LM disease is not well-known.

METHODS

We evaluated 27,252 patients undergoing coronary computed tomographic angiography from the COroNary CT Angiography Evaluation For Clinical Outcomes: An InteRnational Multicenter (CONFIRM) Registry. Cumulative long-term incidence of all-cause mortality (ACM) was assessed between DM and non-DM patients by normal or non-obstructive LM disease (1-49% stenosis).

RESULTS

The mean age of the study population was 57.6±12.6 years. Of the 27,252 patients, 4,434 (16%) patients had DM. A total of 899 (3%) deaths occurred during the follow-up of 3.6±1.9. years. Compared to patients with normal LM, those with non-obstructive LM had more pronounced overall coronary atherosclerosis and more cardiovascular risk factors. After clinical risk factors, segment involvement score, and stenosis severity adjustment, compared to patients without DM and normal LM, patients with DM were associated with increased ACM regardless of normal (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.22-1.78, p<0.001) or non-obstructive LM (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.04-2.04, p=0.029), while nonobstructive LM disease was not associated with increased ACM in patients without DM (HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.67-1.07, p=0.165) and there was no significant interaction between DM and LM status (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.69-1.54, p=0.879).

CONCLUSION

From the CONFIRM registry, we demonstrated that DM was associated with increased ACM. However, the presence of non-obstructive LM was not an independent risk marker of ACM, and there was no significant interaction between DM and non-obstructive LM disease for ACM.

Comparing the pooled cohort equations and coronary artery calcium scores in a symptomatic mixed Asian cohort

Background

The value of pooled cohort equations (PCE) as a predictor of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) is poorly established among symptomatic patients. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) assessment further improves risk prediction, but non-Western studies are lacking. This study aims to compare PCE and CAC scores within a symptomatic mixed Asian cohort, and to evaluate the incremental value of CAC in predicting MACE, as well as in subgroups based on statin use.

Methods

Consecutive patients with stable chest pain who underwent cardiac computed tomography were recruited. Logistic regression was performed to determine the association between risk factors and MACE. Cohort and statin-use subgroup comparisons were done for PCE against Agatston score in predicting MACE.

Results

Of 501 patients included, mean (SD) age was 53.7 (10.8) years, mean follow-up period was 4.64 (0.66) years, 43.5% were female, 48.3% used statins, and 50.0% had no CAC. MI occurred in 8 subjects while 9 subjects underwent revascularization. In the general cohort, age, presence of CAC, and ln(Volume) (OR = 1.05, 7.95, and 1.44, respectively) as well as age and PCE score for the CAC = 0 subgroup (OR = 1.16 and 2.24, respectively), were significantly associated with MACE. None of the risk factors were significantly associated with MACE in the CAC > 0 subgroup. Overall, the PCE, Agatston, and their combination obtained an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.501, 0.662, and 0.661, respectively. Separately, the AUC of PCE, Agatston, and their combination for statin non-users were 0.679, 0.753, and 0.734, while that for statin-users were 0.585, 0.615, and 0.631, respectively. Only the performance of PCE alone was statistically significant (p = 0.025) when compared between statin-users (0.507) and non-users (0.783).

Conclusion

In a symptomatic mixed Asian cohort, age, presence of CAC, and ln(Volume) were independently associated with MACE for the overall subgroup, age and PCE score for the CAC = 0 subgroup, and no risk factor for the CAC > 0 subgroup. Whilst the PCE performance deteriorated in statin versus non-statin users, the Agatston score performed consistently in both groups.

Heterogeneity in the Association Between the Presence of Coronary Artery Calcium and Cardiovascular Events: A Machine-Learning Approach in the MESA Study

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been widely recognized as an important predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Given the finite resources, it is important to identify individuals who would receive the most benefit from detecting positive CAC by screening. However, the evidence is limited as to whether the burden of positive CAC on CVD differs by multidimensional individual characteristics. We sought to investigate the heterogeneity in the association between positive CAC and incident CVD.

METHODS

This cohort study included adults from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) ages ≥45 years and free of cardiovascular disease. After propensity score matching in a 1:1 ratio, we applied a machine learning causal forest model to (1) evaluate the heterogeneity in the association between positive CAC and incident CVD, and (2) predict the increase in CVD risk at 10-years when CAC>0 (versus CAC=0) at the individual level. We then compared the estimated increase in CVD risk when CAC>0 to the absolute 10-year atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk calculated by the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equations.

RESULTS

Across 3328 adults in our propensity score-matched analysis, our causal forest model showed the heterogeneity in the association between CAC>0 and incident CVD. We found a dose-response relationship of the estimated increase in CVD risk when CAC>0 with higher 10-year ASCVD risk. Almost all individuals (2293 of 2428 [94.4%]) with borderline risk of ASCVD or higher showed ≥2.5% increase in CVD risk when CAC>0. Even among 900 adults with low ASCVD risk, 689 (69.2%) showed ≥2.5% increase in CVD risk when CAC>0; these individuals were more likely to be male, Hispanic, and have unfavorable CVD risk factors than others.

CONCLUSIONS

The expected increases in CVD risk when CAC>0 were heterogeneous across individuals. Moreover, nearly 70% of people with low ASCVD risk showed a large increase in CVD risk when CAC>0, highlighting the need for CAC screening among such low-risk individuals. Future studies are needed to assess whether targeting individuals for CAC measurements based on not only the absolute ASCVD risk but also the expected increase in CVD risk when CAC>0 improves cardiovascular outcomes.

Ischemia With Nonobstructive Coronary Arteries: Insights From the ISCHEMIA Trial

BACKGROUND

Ischemia with nonobstructive coronary arteries (INOCA) is common clinically, particularly among women, but its prevalence among patients with at least moderate ischemia and the relationship between ischemia severity and non-obstructive atherosclerosis severity are unknown.

OBJECTIVES

The authors investigated predictors of INOCA in enrolled, nonrandomized participants in ISCHEMIA (International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness with Medical and Invasive Approaches), sex differences, and the relationship between ischemia and atherosclerosis in patients with INOCA.

METHODS

Core laboratories independently reviewed screening noninvasive stress test results (nuclear imaging, echocardiography, magnetic resonance imaging or nonimaging exercise tolerance testing), and coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), blinded to results of the screening test. INOCA was defined as all stenoses <50% on CCTA in a patient with moderate or severe ischemia on stress testing. INOCA patients, who were excluded from randomization, were compared with randomized participants with ≥50% stenosis in ≥1 vessel and moderate or severe ischemia.

RESULTS

Among 3,612 participants with core laboratory-confirmed moderate or severe ischemia and interpretable CCTA, 476 (13%) had INOCA. Patients with INOCA were younger, were predominantly female, and had fewer atherosclerosis risk factors. For each stress testing modality, the extent of ischemia tended to be less among patients with INOCA, particularly with nuclear imaging. There was no significant relationship between severity of ischemia and extent or severity of nonobstructive atherosclerosis on CCTA. On multivariable analysis, female sex was independently associated with INOCA (odds ratio: 4.2 [95% CI: 3.4-5.2]).

CONCLUSIONS

Among participants enrolled in ISCHEMIA with core laboratory-confirmed moderate or severe ischemia, the prevalence of INOCA was 13%. Severity of ischemia was not associated with severity of nonobstructive atherosclerosis. (International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness With Medical and Invasive Approaches [ISCHEMIA]; NCT01471522).