Assessing the risk of whale entanglement with fishing gear debris

The loss and abandonment of fishing gear has resulted in one of the most visible signs of growing pollution in the marine environment. The entanglement of whales in fishing gear has been the subject of increasing documentation. The interpretation of the documented incidents to address the risk of whale entanglement is presented. An initial risk-based model is derived that reflects published information on multi-year fishing gear accumulation rates and entanglement data. A fault tree framework is adopted to organize the data, allowing for the continual improvement of the risk-based model predictions through the incorporation of new data and inclusion of additional sub-events. Analytic distribution functions are introduced to augment incomplete data and explore hypothetical scenarios. Data reported for the US Atlantic and Pacific coastlines are used in illustrative examples, that address both regional and multi-regional applications, and the sensitivity of the risk-based predictions to the reported field data.

Risk analyses in the intersection between patient and workplace safety: A case study of hazids in para-clinical supporting systems in specialized health care

BACKGROUND

The aim is to investigate the appropriateness of hazid for performing risk analyses in supporting systems in hospitals.

METHODS

We used a case study approach for evaluating introduction of hazid for the first time in two different university hospital settings. The hazid was performed in a customized way according to the specific needs at the two sites.

FINDINGS

In both settings studied, the hazid approach revealed several phenomena that were followed up in the ordinary quality improvement work. The results were widely acknowledged as valid as seen from the managerial level. The participants reported that they felt comfortable in the hazid process and were able to freely present their current concerns and perspectives on risks related to their daily work.

CONCLUSION

Hazid is basically a meeting between competent workers who elaborate on their own risk picture. It is giving other types of information not gained through other often-used approaches. Specific risk factors can be described in real time as seen by people directly involved, thus circumventing the hierarchy in the organization. The process in itself can trigger improvement actions.

APPLICATION TO PRACTICE

Hazid can be used for presenting a valid risk picture as seen from below in the organization.

Quantitative microbial spoilage risk assessment (QMSRA) of pasteurized strawberry purees by Aspergillus fischeri (teleomorph Neosartorya fischeri)

Aspergillus fischeri ascospores are known as potential spoilage microorganisms of pasteurized fruit products due to their high incidence in fruits, the ability to survive pasteurization and to grow in acidic conditions. This study aimed to develop a quantitative microbial spoilage risk assessment (QMSRA) model approach to estimate the spoilage risk of packaged strawberry purees due to A. fischeri under various scenarios regarding product formulation, processing and storage conditions. The development of the risk assessment comprised three steps: (1) initial contamination level of raw material by ascospores (N₀), (2) inactivation of ascospores during thermal processing (N_p) and (3) determination of the number of ascospores which are able to survive thermal processing and develop visible mycelia (D = 2 mm) during storage (N_f). Data of visible growth (t_v, days) comprised distributions previously obtained as function of water activity (a_w) (0.860-0.985), oxygen (0-21%), temperature (8-30 °C) and pasteurization (95-105 °C/15 s). The simulations were performed in triplicate with 100,000 iterations using the software R. The outcome "spoilage risk" was defined as the probability of having at least one ascospore (N_f) capable of forming visible colonies in 100 g-pack strawberry puree within the typical use-by dates. Overall, high probabilities of spoilage were estimated for purees pasteurized at milder treatments at 85 °C/15-60 s (67%) and 90 °C/15-60 s (≥40%) stored at ambient temperature (22 °C). The spoilage risk was only effectively reduced (0.02%) by increasing pasteurization conditions to 95 °C for at least 45 s. Moreover, the microbial stability of such purees, i.e., spoilage risk <0.001% (=less than 1 spoilage pack out of 10⁵ produced units) was predicted to occur for purees treated at 100 °C/15 s or stored at chilled conditions (≤8 °C) or at strict anaerobic conditions or produced as concentrates (a_w ≤ 0.860). Based on the outcomes obtained, a set of specifications for Heat-Resistant Moulds (HRMs) in raw material and pasteurized purees aimed to be used as an ingredient was suggested. Furthermore, the results can be used to support risk management decisions in identifying and quantifying the impact of possible interventions during formulation, processing and storage conditions of fruit purees to effectively reduce this risk.

[Risk prevention of plague and suggestions for coping in China]

Plague is listed by the WHO as one of 20 infectious diseases that have re-emerged. Plague was prevalent in the world, bringing great disaster to the people around the world. Nowadays, great achievements have been made in the prevention and control of plague in our country. Human plague in China is currently sporadic, but there are still risks of resurgence spread and importation. This paper reviews the incidence of human plague globally and in China in the past ten years, summarizes the characteristics of current plague epidemic globally and in China, analyzes the current risks of plague prevention in China, and puts forward relevant countermeasures.

Approximations for the inverse cumulative distribution function of the gamma distribution used in wireless communication

The use of quantile functions of probability distributions whose cumulative distribution is intractable is often limited in Monte Carlo simulation, modeling, and random number generation. Gamma distribution is one of such distributions, and that has placed limitations on the use of gamma distribution in modeling fading channels and systems described by the gamma distribution. This is due to the inability to find a suitable closed-form expression for the inverse cumulative distribution function, commonly known as the quantile function (QF). This paper adopted the Quantile mechanics approach to transform the probability density function of the gamma distribution to second-order nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) whose solution leads to quantile approximation. Closed-form expressions, although complex of the QF, were obtained from the solution of the ODEs for degrees of freedom from one to five. The cases where the degree of freedom is not an integer were obtained, which yielded values closed to the R software values via Monte Carlo simulation. This paper provides an alternative for simulating gamma random variables when the degree of freedom is not an integer. The results obtained are fast, computationally efficient and compare favorably with the machine (R software) values using absolute error and Kullback-Leibler divergence as performance metrics.

Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors' accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020-2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.

Human and organizational factors within the public sectors for the prevention and control of epidemic

Pervasive human and organizational factors (HOFs) within the public sectors play a vital role in the prevention and control of epidemic (PCE). Insufficient analysis of HOFs has helped continue the use of flawed precautions. In this study, we attempted to establish a quantitative model to (a) clarify HOFs within the public sectors with regard to PCE, (b) predict the probability of relevant risk factors and an epidemic, and (c) diagnose the critical factors. First, we systematically identified 47 HOFs based on the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). We then converted the HFACS framework into a Bayesian Network (BN) after determining the causalities among these factors. Finally, we applied the hybrid HFACS-BN model to analyze the COVID-19 outbreak in China by virtue of its efficacy in probability prediction and diagnosis of key risk factors, and thus to test the feasibility of the model itself. This study contributes to a holistic analysis of HOFs within the public sectors with regard to PCE by providing a risk assessment model for epidemics or pandemics, and developing risk analysis methods for the public health field.

ProZES: the methodology and software tool for assessment of assigned share of radiation in probability of cancer occurrence

ProZES is a software tool for estimating the probability that a given cancer was caused by preceding exposure to ionising radiation. ProZES calculates this probability, the assigned share, for solid cancers and hematopoietic malignant diseases, in cases of exposures to low-LET radiation, and for lung cancer in cases of exposure to radon. User-specified inputs include birth year, sex, type of diagnosed cancer, age at diagnosis, radiation exposure history and characteristics, and smoking behaviour for lung cancer. Cancer risk models are an essential part of ProZES. Linking disease and exposure to radiation involves several methodological aspects, and assessment of uncertainties received particular attention. ProZES systematically uses the principle of multi-model inference. Models of radiation risk were either newly developed or critically re-evaluated for ProZES, including dedicated models for frequent types of cancer and, for less common diseases, models for groups of functionally similar cancer sites. The low-LET models originate mostly from the study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Risks predicted by these models are adjusted to be applicable to the population of Germany and to different time periods. Adjustment factors for low dose rates and for a reduced risk during the minimum latency time between exposure and cancer are also applied. The development of the methodology and software was initiated and supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) taking up advice by the German Commission on Radiological Protection (SSK, Strahlenschutzkommission). These provide the scientific basis to support decision making on compensation claims regarding malignancies following occupational exposure to radiation in Germany.

On the application of the window of opportunity and complex network to risk analysis of process plants operations during a pandemic

To quantify the pandemic specific impact with respect to the risk related to the chemical industry, a novel risk analysis method is proposed. The method includes three parts. Firstly, the two types of “window of opportunity” (WO) theory is proposed to divide an accident life cycle into two parts. Then, a qualitative risk analysis is conducted based on WO theory to determine possible risk factors, evolution paths and consequences. The third part is a quantitative risk analysis based on a complex network model, integrating two types of WO. The Fuzzy set theory is introduced to calculate the failure probabilities of risk factors and the concept of risk entropy is used to represent the uncertainty. Then the Dijkstra algorithm is used to calculate the shortest path and the corresponding probability of the accident. The proposed method is applied to the SCR denitrition liquid ammonia storage and transportation system. The results show that it is a comprehensive method of quantitative risk analysis and it is applicable to risk analysis during the pandemic.

•

The pandemic impact with regard to human errors and accident stages are analyzed.

•

The concept of the Window of opportunity (WO) is proposed.

•

A new risk analysis model based on WO and complex network is proposed.

•

Risk entropy is used to represent edge weights between nodes of complex network.

•

The difference between the proposed method and BT and BN are discussed.

Pharmaceuticals and other contaminants in waters and sediments from Augusta Bay (southern Italy)

The contamination by pharmaceuticals products (PPs) in the marine environment is particularly relevant where wastewater treatment of urban areas on land is lacking. However, the number of studies focused on description of sources and fate of PP molecules in the marine environment remains still limited. In this study, the occurrence of 46 PPs was investigated in the marine and coastal-marine system (waters and sediments) of Augusta Bay (central Mediterranean Sea). This area is highly affected by industrial pollution and urban discharges (without wastewater treatment) and thus represents a 'natural laboratory' for exploring dynamics of multi-mixture contaminants in the marine environment. The study area is also part of the sub-region 'Central Mediterranean Sea' of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive and therefore offers an important reference site for exploring the distribution modes of PPs in the central Mediterranean Sea. In this work, samples of seawater, sediment, untreated wastewater, and marine receiving water were analysed using mass spectrometry with a target analysis for PPs and a suspect screening analysis for the presence of other contaminants. PPs concentration ranges were: 2426-67,155 ng/L for untreated wastewaters, 550-27,889 ng/L for marine receiving waters and 12-281 ng/L for seawaters. The highest concentrations were measured for the antibiotics, anti-inflammatories, cardiovascular and antihypertensive therapeutic classes. Likewise, sediments collected from untreated wastewater sewers resulted more contaminated. Ionic, non-ionic surfactants and personal care products were the most abundant compounds found in waters and sediments by suspect screening analysis. The risk associated with PPs contamination for aquatic organisms was relatively high in samples of marine receiving waters of the bay (with a risk quotient value up to 33,599). The levels of PPs in seawater and sediment compartments were generally not hazardous (RQ < 0.01), except for estrone with a calculated RQ = 2775.

Toxicological risk factors in the burden of malnutrition: The case of nutrition (and risk) transition in sub-Saharan Africa

Toxicant exposures may worsen the micronutrient status, especially during the womb-to-childhood development, impairing organism programming and increasing the risk for health disorders in adulthood. Growing evidence calls for an integrated risk analysis of the interplay of environment, behavior and lifestyle, where a) imbalanced diet and micronutrient deficiencies may increase the vulnerability to toxicants and alter body defence systems and b) intake of antinutrients and contaminants may increase nutritional requirements. Such scenarios are especially evident in communities undergoing a fast nutrition transition, such as in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa. Specific challenges of toxicological risk analysis in sub-Saharan Africa still need a thorough assessment, including: rapid changes of lifestyle and consumers' preferences; dumping of foods and consumer' products; risk management under weak or non-existent awareness, legislation enforcement and infrastructures. The significant and growing literature from Africa-led scientific research should be used to build quality-controlled data repositories supporting regulatory top-down actions. Meanwhile, bottom-up actions (eg consumer's empowerment) could exploit social and economic drivers toward a qualified African presence in the global and local markets. A science-based combination of top-down and bottom-up actions on preventable toxicological risk factors will contribute fighting the new forms of malnutrition and prevent multi-factorial diseases. Exposures to toxicants should be included in the integrated approach proposed by WHO to address the urgent health challenge of simultaneously reduce the risk or burden of both malnutrition (ie deficiency of one or more essential nutrients) and overweight, obesity, and diet-related NCDs.

A fuzzy TOPSIS based analysis toward selection of effective security requirements engineering approach for trustworthy healthcare software development

Background

Today’s healthcare organizations want to implement secure and quality healthcare software as cyber-security is a significant risk factor for healthcare data. Considering security requirements during trustworthy healthcare software development process is an essential part of the quality software development. There are several Security Requirements Engineering (SRE) methodologies, framework, process, standards available today. Unfortunately, there is still a necessity to improve these security requirements engineering approaches. Determining the most suitable security requirements engineering method for trustworthy healthcare software development is a challenging process. This study is aimed to present security experts’ perspective on the relative importance of the criteria for selecting effective SRE method by utilizing the multi-criteria decision making methods.

Methods

The study was planned and conducted to identify the most appropriate SRE approach for quality and trustworthy software development based on the security expert’s knowledge and experience. The hierarchical model was evaluated by using fuzzy TOPSIS model. Effective SRE selection criteria were compared in pairs. 25 security experts were asked to response the pairwise criteria comparison form.

Results

The impact of the recognized selection criteria for effective security requirements engineering approaches has been evaluated quantitatively. For each of the 25 participants, comparison matrixes were formed based on the scores of their responses in the form. The consistency ratios (CR) were found to be smaller than 10% (CR = 9.1% < 10%). According to pairwise comparisons result; with a 0.842 closeness coefficient (Ci), STORE methodology is the most effective security requirements engineering approach for trustworthy healthcare software development.

Conclusions

The findings of this research study demonstrate various factors in the decision-making process for the selection of a reliable method for security requirements engineering. This is a significant study that uses multi-criteria decision-making tools, specifically fuzzy TOPSIS, which used to evaluate different SRE methods for secure and trustworthy healthcare application development.

The lodging of crops by tornadoes

It is well known that tornadoes passing over fields can cause significant damage to crops, and tornado tracks of fallen, or lodged, crops can extend for many hundreds of metres. An examination of photographic evidence of such events suggests that, at least for low speed EF0/EF1 events, lodging occurs beneath tornadoes primarily due to a strong radial flow (rather than circumferential flow) at the canopy surface. In order to investigate this effect further, a simple model of a tornado has been developed which, whilst fully satisfying the three dimensional Euler equations, models a circumferential flow at the edge of the tornado boundary layer near the ground, which becomes a radial flow as the ground is approached. This model is then used in a generalised model of lodging to predict lodging track widths and crop fall directions. It is shown that, when expressed in a suitably normalised form, both lodging width and crop fall direction are functions of a normalised translational velocity and a normalised crop lodging velocity. The lodging patterns are of two forms - a forward convergence (FC) where the cropfall converges on the tornado track in a forward direction, and a backward convergence (BC) where the convergence is in the opposite direction to tornado translations. Regions of FC and BC in the normalised parameter plane are calculated. These patterns are very similar to those observed in the field, which gives some confidence in the nature of the model. The model is then used to investigate the sensitivity of lodging width to crop and tornado parameters, and also to carry out a risk analysis to determine the probability distributions of lodging width for specified distributions of crop and tornado parameters.

A novel approach in probabilistic quantification of risks within the context of maritime supply chain: The case of extreme weather events in the Arctic

Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) are currently not well understood by the maritime community, even though the shipping industry is not immune to their potential disastrous consequences. This is critical for the Arctic supply chains, considering the serious lack of experience, data, communication facilities, and that rules and regulations governing the region are at the embryonic stage. Understanding such, the study develops an effective risk assessment model in the context of the maritime supply chain and quantifies the risks associated with EWEs in the Arctic. The model is developed based on a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) that reflects a probabilistic risk priority index based on Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMEA). Here, we introduce a new index, based on a weighted combination of the likelihood, visibility, and consequence of risk factors. The model is quantified by 51 respondents based on their sailing experience with cargo carriers along the Northwest Passage. Our findings suggest that dense fog and ice accretion are distinctly critical risk factors followed by thunderstorm, hail and/or waterspouts, extreme coldness, and blizzard. The study offers useful insight to all right- and stakeholders in the Arctic. Moreover, it presents an effective tool to develop high-resolution maps for maritime routes considering important shipping elements.

Choosing awareness over fear: Risk analysis and free trade support global food security

Livestock production and global trade are key components to achieving food security, but are bedfellows with the risk for emergence and spread of infectious diseases. The World Trade Organization's Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures outlines provisions for member countries to protect animal, plant, and public health while promoting free trade. The capacity for risk analysis equips countries to increase access to export markets, improve local animal health and food safety regarding known hazards, and build the institutional capacity to respond to unexpected events. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to detect, report, and implement effective response measures to emerging challenges on a local and global scale, and it is crucial that these measures are implemented in a way that supports food production and trade. The use of risk analysis coupled with sound understanding of underlying system dynamics will contribute to resilient and enduring food systems.

Accumulation of potentially toxic elements in agricultural soil and scenario analysis of cadmium inputs by fertilization: A case study in Quzhou county

Fertilizer application has greatly increased crop yield, however impurities in mineral or organic fertilizers, such as heavy metals, are being added to agricultural soils, which would pose a high risk for soil and crop production. 115 soil samples were collected from Quzhou, a typical agricultural county in the North China Plain, to investigate the total content of cadmium (Cd), arsenic (As), lead (Pb), nickel (Ni), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn) and chromium (Cr) in soils. The contamination levels and source apportionment of studied elements were explored by the pollution indices, multivariate statistical approaches and geostatistical analysis. The ranges of Cd, As, Pb, Ni, Cu, Zn and Cr were between 0.08 and 0.35, 5.34-15.9, 7.34-38.9, 12.9-61.3, 7.80-27.0, 31.4-154, and 17.0-50.5 mg/kg and with the mean values 0.16, 9.20, 16.0, 24.7, 17.6, 61.1, and 29.5 mg/kg, respectively. The studied area was slightly polluted mainly by Cd, and higher pollution was found in soils under vegetable crops. The application of mineral phosphate fertilizer and livestock manure were the main source of Cd and Zn, and other elements (As, Pb, Ni and Cu) might originate from soil parent materials. Scenario analyses were performed using the R programming language, based on the cadmium contents in mineral phosphate fertilizers and livestock manures. The results showed that the long-term application of phosphate fertilizers would lead to some Cd enrichment in soil without risk of substantial pollution. Compared to pure mineral fertilizers, the long-term application of blended fertilizers (30% livestock manures and 70% phosphate fertilizers) or livestock manures would incur a higher Cd pollution risk within a short period, with a maximum probability of Cd risk of 55.21%. Mitigation measurements and scientific agronomic practices should be developed to minimize the risk of potential toxic elements in agricultural soil.

The magnitude and drivers of harmful algal blooms in China's lakes and reservoirs: A national-scale characterization

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) can have dire repercussions on aquatic wildlife and human health, and may negatively affect recreational uses, aesthetics, taste, and odor in drinking water. The factors that influence the occurrence and magnitude of harmful algal blooms and toxin production remain poorly understood and can vary in space and time. It is within this context that we use machine learning (ML) and two 14-year (2005-2018) data sets on water quality and meteorological conditions of China's lakes and reservoirs to shed light on the magnitude and associated drivers of HAB events. General regression neural network (GRNN) models are developed to predict chlorophyll a concentrations for each lake and reservoir during two study periods (2005-2010 and 2011-2018). The developed models with an acceptable model fit are then analyzed by two indices to determine the areal HAB magnitudes and associated drivers. Our national assessment suggests that HAB magnitudes for China's lakes and reservoirs displayed a decreasing trend from 2006 (1363.3 km²) to 2013 (665.2 km²), and a slightly increasing trend from 2013 to 2018 (775.4 km²). Among the 142 studied lakes and reservoirs, most severe HABs were found in Lakes Taihu, Dianchi and Chaohu with their contribution to the total HAB magnitude varying from 89.2% (2013) to 62.6% (2018). HABs in Lakes Taihu and Chaohu were strongly associated with both total phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations, while our results were inconclusive with respect to the predominant environmental factors shaping the eutrophication phenomena in Lake Dianchi. The present study provides evidence that effective HAB mitigation may require both nitrogen and phosphorus reductions and longer recovery times; especially in view of the current climate-change projections. ML represents a robust strategy to elucidate water quality patterns in lakes, where the available information is sufficient to train the constructed algorithms. Our mapping of HAB magnitudes and associated environmental/meteorological drivers can help managers to delineate hot-spots at a national scale, and comprehensively design the best management practices for mitigating the eutrophication severity in China's lakes and reservoirs.

A model of reopening businesses to decrease the heath and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons from Iran

Background: OVID-19 is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The closure of governmental and nongovernmental centers as well as social, cultural, and economic activities are other major negative impacts of the virus. The present paper aimed to develop a model of economic and health-related factors which affect the reopening of businesses and the proper management of the effect of virus on different aspects, particularly on people’s health and economy.

Methods: In order to facilitate decision-making and model risk analysis of guilds and occupations, an expert panel, including eight 8 experts, was convened by the Ministry of Health in Iran to prepare a strategic framework for the national taskforce of COVID-19 management. The panel spent many hours to prepare a simple model of reopening businesses and prioritize them from low to high risks.

Results: The experts identified and weighed seven health and three economic-related factors. The businesses and jobs were classified into 69 categories based on their similarities; they were also graded according to a predefined five- point Likert scale and categorized into three levels of low, medium, and high risk. The policymakers recommended to reopen businesses stratified by risk levels at least two weeks’ intervals.

Conclusion: The relaunch strategy in Iran put health and safety first while gradually reopening businesses, resuming activities, and getting people back to work. At the same time, attempts were made to slow the spread of the virus through following public health measures, social distancing, good hygiene, and continued acting responsibly. As many countries may have to deal with the same issue, this model can help them adopt appropriate policies and strategies for disease containment.

Role of water chemistry on stability, aggregation, and dissolution of uncoated and carbon-coated copper nanoparticles

Intentional or accidental release of copper nanoparticles (Cu-NPs) from consumer products during manufacturing, use, and end-of-life management could pose health and ecological risks. This paper presents a detailed study on the role of water chemistry on the fate of uncoated and carbon-coated Cu-NPs dispersed in aqueous cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) surfactant in the presence and absence of humic acids (HAs). A range of water chemistry and HAs had minimum impact on hydrodynamic diameter and zeta-potential values of uncoated and carbon-coated Cu-NPs. The water pH significantly (p < 0.001) affected the aggregation of uncoated Cu-NPs unlike that of carbon-coated Cu-NPs; however, the presence of HAs increased the stability of uncoated Cu-NPs. Although CTAB is considered as an efficient dispersant to stabilize Cu-NPs, the effect descended with time for uncoated Cu-NPs. The dissolution of Cu over time decreased with increasing pH for both uncoated (0.5-50% weight) and carbon-coated (0.5-40% weight) Cu-NPs. However, carbon-coated Cu-NPs exhibited significant dissolution (p < 0.001) at neutral pH than uncoated Cu-NPs may be due to the additional carbon it acquired during coating. Increasing HAs concentration from 0 to 15 mg L^-1 at pH 5.5 inhibited aggregations but enhanced dissolution of the uncoated and carbon-coated Cu-NPs. These findings inform risk analysis of Cu-NPs including how Cu-NPs fate, mobility and bioavailability are modulated by particles coating and dispersant, HAs presence, water chemistry and exposure time in dispersion media.

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) for Immunogenicity of Therapeutic Proteins

Biotherapeutic drugs made by cell-based systems are revolutionizing the practice of medicine. The next generation of biotherapeutics include recombinant proteins, monoclonal antibodies, viral vector expressed proteins, and cell therapies. Immunogenicity associated adverse events is one of the major risks for these biologics. Accurate and precise measurement of the immunogenicity of biologics is a critical component during all phases of drug development. We have utilized the principles of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in performing assessment of risk of immunogenicity. The multi-dimensional approach involves: i) listing all the potential risks by likelihood of occurrence and severity as part of quality target product profile. ii) ascribing the causes by identifying the risks at each stage of development. iii) predicting the effects. iv) determining the risk mitigation strategy. v) implementing a monitoring process. vi) developing templates for data collection. vii) timely reporting and. viii) life cycle management. FMEA is a continuous process that works throughout the lifecycle of the product or the process and keeps on getting updated with new insights and knowledge.

A Contemporary Risk Analysis of Iatrogenic Transmission of Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (CJD) via Corneal Transplantation in the United States

Background

Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) is a rare, fatal, neurodegenerative prion disease potentially transmissible through corneal transplantation. While statistical analyses performed two decades ago estimated the overall prevalence of CJD in the corneal donor pool to be low, the recent significant increase in corneal transplants performed and deaths due to CJD in the U.S. warrants a contemporary risk analysis.

Methods

A literature review was conducted to determine the overall number of globally reported cases of CJD transmission through corneal transplantation. U.S. mortality and cornea donation data were utilized to estimate the age-stratified prevalence of undiagnosed, latent CJD in the cornea donor pool in 2018. A historical statistical analysis was performed to estimate the number of corneas from donors with latent CJD entering the U.S. donor pool for each year between 1979 and 2018. From these statistical analyses, risk factors of iatrogenic transmission were identified and summarized.

Results

Ten reported cases of iatrogenic transmission of CJD through corneal transplants were identified globally. In 2018, an estimated 3.8 corneas from donors with undiagnosed latent CJD potentially entered the pool of 111,703 transplant-intended corneas harvested from individuals aged 31–80. Between 1979 and 2018, an estimated 47 corneas may have entered the U.S. transplant-intended pool from donors with latent CJD aged 35 to 84. The advanced age of donors and a history of multiple transplants in recipients were both prominent risk factors for iatrogenic transmission.

Conclusions

The 10 reported global cases of iatrogenic transmission likely under-represent the number of individuals with a coinciding history of death by CJD and prior corneal transplantation, as supported by our statistical analysis and lack of geographical diversity of reported cases. As effective screening methods develop and globalization of cornea transplantation broadens, it is of utmost importance that cornea transplantation history among victims of CJD should be investigated and reported.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s40123-020-00272-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Testing the adaptive advantage of a threatened species over an invasive species using a stochastic population model

Introduced species are a major threat to freshwater biodiversity. Often eradication is not feasible, and management must focus on reducing impacts on native wildlife. This requires an understanding of how native species are affected but also how environmental characteristics influence population dynamics of both invasive and native species. Such insights can inform how to manipulate systems in order to take advantage of life-history traits native species possesses that invaders do not. The highly invasive fish, Gambusia holbrooki, has been implicated in the decline of many freshwater fish and amphibians. In south-eastern Australia, one of these is the threatened native fish, Galaxiella pusilla. As G. pusilla can survive periods without surface water, this presents an opportunity for adaptive management, given G. holbrooki lack these adaptations. We develop a stochastic population model to explore the impact of G. holbrooki on G. pusilla and test the feasibility of both natural and management-induced drying to protect this species. Our results support recent empirical studies showing G. holbrooki are a serious threat to G. pusilla persistence, especially through impacts on larval survival. While persistence is more likely in water bodies that frequently dry out, even optimal natural drying regimes may be insufficient when impacts from G. holbrooki are high. However, management-induced drying may allow persistence of G. pusilla in sites inhabited by both species. Given our model outcomes, the biology of these species and the habitats they occupy, we recommend maintaining or restoring aquatic and riparian vegetation and natural drying regimes to protect G. pusilla from G. holbrooki, in addition to undertaking management-induced drying of invaded water bodies. Our results provide insights into how the effects of G. holbrooki may be mitigated for other native species, which is important given this species is perhaps the most pervasive invader of freshwater ecosystems. We conclude with a discussion of the potential for using disturbance processes in the management of invasive species more broadly in freshwater and terrestrial systems.

Prioritization of the treatment and disposal methods of wastes containing polychlorinated biphenyl by fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making and risk assessment

A total of 209 different types of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) with various properties have been produced from 1930 to 1970s in which they have been banned due to their toxic effects. Total produced PCBs in the world are around 15 to 20 million tons, and up to now, 5.4 million tons of PCB-containing or PCB-contaminated equipment/materials has been eliminated. The remaining 10-15 million tons still needs to be removed or managed. Moreover, PCBs are pollutants still being unintentionally formed. These pollutants can be treated or disposed of various methods. However, there is a lack of knowledge about the selection of the treatment and disposal methods and their environmental, technological, cost, and social/ergonomic evaluation perspectives and the risk assessment during method selection. In this study, a projection was presented for the management of PCBs with an integrated multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM)-risk analysis focusing on these questions. Treatment (physical, chemical, biological) and disposal (incineration, landfill, supercritical water oxidation/gasification (SCWO/G), and pyrolysis/gasification) methods for the management of PCB-containing waste have been prioritized by fuzzy-analytical hierarchy process (F-AHP) in terms of environmental, technology, cost, and social/ergonomic criteria. Risk analysis was also made in terms of these criteria for considered alternatives, and compliance with risk and MCDM was evaluated. As a result of the study, priority methods among alternatives were determined as chemical treatment and SCWO/G. It has been determined that the weight values of the main criteria of environmental, technology, cost, and social/ergonomics were close to each other, but the emission criterion of the sub-criteria was determined to be of higher priority. In the risk analysis, chemical treatment and SCWO/G methods have been found to carry a more acceptable risk. Thus, it has been evaluated that these methods provide more superiority than other methods.

Potential carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health hazards of metal(loid)s in food grains

Metal(loid) contamination of vital food grains such as wheat and rice is a very serious problem throughout the world because consumption of such contaminated food can lead to severe health effects in humans. Metal(loid) contamination of food crops can occur from different sources such as contaminated soil, irrigation water, and aerial deposition. Therefore, the present study was conducted to analyze potential non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health impacts posed by different metal(loid)s (As Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Se, and Zn) via consumption of wheat and rice grown on metal(loid)-contaminated soils in areas around rivers (Beas and Sutlej) of Punjab, India. Among the metal(loid)s analyzed in wheat and rice samples, contents of As, Cd, Cr, Ni, and Pb were found to be above the international (FAO/WHO and EU) maximum permissible limits. The non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risk assessment of individual metal(loid)s revealed that As posed highest risk followed by Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, and Pb. The values of indices calculated for analysis of combined non-carcinogenic, i.e., (hazard index; range 3.49-15.94) and carcinogenic (total carcinogenic risk index; range 8.30 × 10^-4-131.62 × 10^-4) risks for both crops were found to be many fold higher than the prescribed limits of 1.0 and 1.0 × 10^-4, respectively. Thus, the analysis of combined risks posed by metal(loid)s indicated that human population consuming wheat and rice from the study area faced both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks. Therefore, immediate steps must be taken to reduce the levels of metal(loid)s in wheat and rice from the study area.