Choosing versus rejecting: why some options are both better and worse than others

A previously unobserved pattern of choice behavior is predicted and corroborated. In line with the principle of compatibility, according to which the weighting of inputs is enhanced by their compatibility with output, the positive and negative dimensions of options (their pros and cons) are expected to loom larger when one is choosing and when one is rejecting, respectively. Subjects are presented with pairs of options, one of which--the enriched option--has more positive as well as more negative dimensions than does the other, impoverished, option. Because positive dimensions are weighted more heavily in choosing than in rejecting, and negative dimensions are weighted more heavily in rejecting than in choosing, the enriched option tends to be chosen and rejected relatively more often than the impoverished option. These findings are extended to nonbinary decision problems, and their implications for the rational theory of choice and for everyday decisions are discussed.

Does experience improve hospital performance in treating patients with AIDS?

This paper examines how experience affects hospital performance in treating patients with AIDS. The most common life-threatening medical complication of AIDS is Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP). Studies of patients with PCP demonstrate that patients who received care at hospitals that were more experienced with AIDS had lower immediate mortality. These higher volume medical facilities did not use more resources but used resources more efficiently and provided better medical care. Better outcomes for experienced providers suggest three policy implications for improving quality of patient care: (1) create regionalized centers where large numbers of patients with a particular illness are treated; (2) encourage low volume providers to rapidly increase their experience; or (3) establish targeted educational programs for low volume providers. Historical review of experience with other medical problems such as tuberculosis indicate that one policy option, creating regional medical centers, did not have the desired effect of better patient outcomes. These facts support policies to provide targeted educational programs and opportunities for low volume facilities to rapidly increase their familiarity with AIDS. Outcomes could be improved by such policies.

Market signaling in hospitals

A Market Signal is a marketing activity that provides information beyond the mere form of that activity. Market Signals reveal levels of the unobserved. Signals occur in a variety of marketing phenomena: advertising, pricing, quality, competitive response to name but a few. In this paper we examine the use of market signals by hospitals and provide a set of recommendations by which hospitals can better utilize signals in the marketing of their services.

A proposed conceptual model of human behavior and its implications for design of warnings

A model of human behavior is proposed that hierarchically describes levels of operator performance. Judgement-based performance occurs at the top level, and the lower levels correspond to knowledge-, rule-, and skill-based performance. Different forms of information denoted as values, symbols, signs, and signals are used at each of these levels of performance, allowing the effectiveness of different warning applications to be inferred. To be effective, warning information must be presented in the form appropriate for the operator's level of performance. Values therefore are appropriate when performance is at the judgement-based level. Explicit verbal information (symbols) is most likely to be effective when directed toward changing behavior from a knowledge- to a rule-based level, as when recommending actions in novel situations or to a judgement-based level, when goal priorities need to be changed. Signs are likely to be effective when performance is at a rule-based level, while signals are best for guiding needed transitions from a skill- to a rule-based level. Warning information should be carefully matched to the level of performance at which errors are taking place to be most effective and avoid information overload. To attain this goal, task analysis that focuses on cognitive activity is of essence. This includes measuring users' knowledge and documenting the flow of information during task performance.

Advertising, price, income and publicity effects on weekly cigarette sales in New Zealand supermarkets

Total cigarettes (all brands) sold weekly by a panel of 60 New Zealand supermarkets were monitored electronically for 42 weeks, a period when cigarette advertisements were in plain format with strong, varied disease warnings. Real cigarette price, newspaper advertising of old, regular and upmarket brands, and the number of newspaper news items on smoking issues were inversely associated with cigarette sales. Tending to increase total sales (all brands) were: more non-shopping days in the current week, and in the week following; volume of grocery items purchased, to indicate income and store traffic; and real advertising expenditure in newspapers for new downmarket cigarette brands, particularly one heavily-advertised brand (Peter Jackson) which was in late 1989 smoked by 4% of teenage smokers. All factors when interacting, explained 93% of changes in weekly cigarette sales. Most of the change occurred in the same week, and was 90% in place after a further 3 weeks. Newspapers, by doubling news coverage of smoking issues or by banning cigarette advertisements, can lower cigarette consumption as much as can a 10% price increase.

Risk within reason

Advances in low-level risk detection threaten to engulf us with information. Regulators typically respond to each newly highlighted risk, whether painstakingly uncovered through scientific investigation or divulged with fanfare by the media, on an ad hoc basis. This response makes it hard to relate disparate risks to the overall risk level and impedes intelligent risk reduction, which must consider the costs and benefits involved. Efficient risk management requires decisions not only about what to regulate and how stringently, but also about the appropriate division of labor among the agents influencing risks. These agents include individuals, whose potential contributions too often are overlooked, corporations, and government.

Learning Curves in Manufacturing

Large increases in productivity are typically realized as organizations gain experience in production. These "learning curves" have been found in many organizations. Organizations vary considerably in the rates at which they learn. Some organizations show remarkable productivity gains, whereas others show little or no learning. Reasons for the variation observed in organizational learning curves include organizational "forgetting," employee turnover, transfer of knowledge from other products and other organizations, and economies of scale.

The Economics of Higher Education

Recent developments in the economics of higher education are surveyed and a number of avenues which future research could usefully follow are identified. Particular attention is given to the demand for and supply of higher education, the role of higher education institutions as multi‐product firms, the optimal pattern of provision, and the academic labour market.