The Status of the World's Land and Marine Mammals: Diversity, Threat, and Knowledge

Mudanças no Código Florestal e seu impacto na ecologia e diversidade dos mamíferos no Brasil

Os ecossistemas florestais do Brasil abrigam um dos mais altos níveis de diversidade de mamíferos da Terra, e boa parte dessa diversidade se encontra nas áreas legalmente protegidas em áreas de domínio privado. As reservas legais (RLs) e áreas de proteção permanente (APPs) representam estratégias importantes para a proteção e manutenção dessa diversidade. Mudanças propostas no Código Florestal certamente trarão efeitos irreversíveis para a diversidade de mamíferos no Brasil. Os mamíferos apresentam papéis-chave nos ecossistemas, atuando como polinizadores e dispersores de sementes. A extinção local de algumas espécies pode reduzir os serviços ecológicos nas RLs e APPs. Outra consequência grave da redução de áreas de vegetação nativa caso a mudança no Código Florestal seja aprovada será o aumento no risco de transmição de doenças, trazendo sério problemas a saúde pública no Brasil.

Comment on "Climate, critters, and cetaceans: Cenozoic drivers of the evolution of modern whales"

Marx and Uhen (Reports, 19 February 2010, p. 993) suggested that correlated diversity changes in the fossil record of whales and diatoms reflects secular evolutionary signals of underlying ecological drivers. We question the meaning of this association and outline avenues for more complete testing of correlations between productivity and marine consumers through geologic time.

Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters

Background

Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.

The effect of habitat fragmentation on the genetic structure of a top predator: loss of diversity and high differentiation among remnant populations of Atlantic Forest jaguars (Panthera onca)

Habitat fragmentation may disrupt original patterns of gene flow and lead to drift-induced differentiation among local population units. Top predators such as the jaguar may be particularly susceptible to this effect, given their low population densities, leading to small effective sizes in local fragments. On the other hand, the jaguar's high dispersal capabilities and relatively long generation time might counteract this process, slowing the effect of drift on local populations over the time frame of decades or centuries. In this study, we have addressed this issue by investigating the genetic structure of jaguars in a recently fragmented Atlantic Forest region, aiming to test whether loss of diversity and differentiation among local populations are detectable, and whether they can be attributed to the recent effect of drift. We used 13 microsatellite loci to characterize the genetic diversity present in four remnant populations, and observed marked differentiation among them, with evidence of recent allelic loss in local areas. Although some migrant and admixed individuals were identified, our results indicate that recent large-scale habitat removal and fragmentation among these areas has been sufficiently strong to promote differentiation induced by drift and loss of alleles at each site. Low estimated effective sizes supported the inference that genetic drift could have caused this effect within a short time frame. These results indicate that jaguars' ability to effectively disperse across the human-dominated landscapes that separate the fragments is currently very limited, and that each fragment contains a small, isolated population that is already suffering from the effects of genetic drift.

Response to Comment on “Climate, Critters, and Cetaceans: Cenozoic Drivers of the Evolution of Modern Whales”

Pyenson et al . raise concerns about the correlation we identified between diatom and cetacean diversity through time. Although the issues raised are of investigative interest, they do not invalidate our conclusions. We agree that localized studies combined with global data sets will further our understanding of the factors that have helped shape cetacean evolution.

Phylogenetic analysis of marine mammal herpesviruses

Five novel DNA-dependent DNA polymerase (Dpol) herpesviral sequences were generated using nested consensus polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in clinical samples from a harbor seal (Phoca vitulina), bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus), orca (Orcinus orca), California sea lion (Zalophus californianus), and a Phocid herpesvirus 2 (PhHV-2) isolate from a harbor seal (used as positive control). These novel sequences and other representative herpesvirus sequences were included in Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood analyses to illustrate the phylogeny of herpesviruses amongst the marine mammal host species and in comparison to those of other animals. All 19 novel and known marine mammal herpesviruses included in the analyses aligned with members of the Alphaherpesvirinae or Gammaherpesvirinae subfamilies. The novel harbor seal herpesvirus clustered with members of the Macavirus genus, subfamily Gammaherpesvirinae. The novel bottlenose dolphin herpesvirus clustered together in a monophyletic group with another delphinid alphaherpesvirus but could not be associated with an established genus. The orca herpesvirus also clustered with a delphinid alphaherpesvirus and formed a separate clade. The sea lion herpesvirus clustered with PhHV-2. PhHV-1 clustered with varicelloviruses and PhHV-2 clustered strongly in the Gammaherpesvirinae genus Percavirus. All cetacean gammaherpesviruses formed a monophyletic clade and could not be associated with an established gammaherpesviral genus.

The role of DNA barcodes in understanding and conservation of mammal diversity in southeast Asia

Background

Southeast Asia is recognized as a region of very high biodiversity, much of which is currently at risk due to habitat loss and other threats. However, many aspects of this diversity, even for relatively well-known groups such as mammals, are poorly known, limiting ability to develop conservation plans. This study examines the value of DNA barcodes, sequences of the mitochondrial COI gene, to enhance understanding of mammalian diversity in the region and hence to aid conservation planning.

Methodology and Principal Findings

DNA barcodes were obtained from nearly 1900 specimens representing 165 recognized species of bats. All morphologically or acoustically distinct species, based on classical taxonomy, could be discriminated with DNA barcodes except four closely allied species pairs. Many currently recognized species contained multiple barcode lineages, often with deep divergence suggesting unrecognized species. In addition, most widespread species showed substantial genetic differentiation across their distributions. Our results suggest that mammal species richness within the region may be underestimated by at least 50%, and there are higher levels of endemism and greater intra-specific population structure than previously recognized.

Conclusions

DNA barcodes can aid conservation and research by assisting field workers in identifying species, by helping taxonomists determine species groups needing more detailed analysis, and by facilitating the recognition of the appropriate units and scales for conservation planning.

From sea to sea: Canada's three oceans of biodiversity

Evaluating and understanding biodiversity in marine ecosystems are both necessary and challenging for conservation. This paper compiles and summarizes current knowledge of the diversity of marine taxa in Canada's three oceans while recognizing that this compilation is incomplete and will change in the future. That Canada has the longest coastline in the world and incorporates distinctly different biogeographic provinces and ecoregions (e.g., temperate through ice-covered areas) constrains this analysis. The taxonomic groups presented here include microbes, phytoplankton, macroalgae, zooplankton, benthic infauna, fishes, and marine mammals. The minimum number of species or taxa compiled here is 15,988 for the three Canadian oceans. However, this number clearly underestimates in several ways the total number of taxa present. First, there are significant gaps in the published literature. Second, the diversity of many habitats has not been compiled for all taxonomic groups (e.g., intertidal rocky shores, deep sea), and data compilations are based on short-term, directed research programs or longer-term monitoring activities with limited spatial resolution. Third, the biodiversity of large organisms is well known, but this is not true of smaller organisms. Finally, the greatest constraint on this summary is the willingness and capacity of those who collected the data to make it available to those interested in biodiversity meta-analyses. Confirmation of identities and intercomparison of studies are also constrained by the disturbing rate of decline in the number of taxonomists and systematists specializing on marine taxa in Canada. This decline is mostly the result of retirements of current specialists and to a lack of training and employment opportunities for new ones. Considering the difficulties encountered in compiling an overview of biogeographic data and the diversity of species or taxa in Canada's three oceans, this synthesis is intended to serve as a biodiversity baseline for a new program on marine biodiversity, the Canadian Healthy Ocean Network. A major effort needs to be undertaken to establish a complete baseline of Canadian marine biodiversity of all taxonomic groups, especially if we are to understand and conserve this part of Canada's natural heritage.

National red listing beyond the 2010 target

Following creation of the 2010 Biodiversity Target under the Convention on Biological Diversity and adoption of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, information on status and trends of biodiversity at the national level has become increasingly important to both science and policy. National red lists (NRLs) of threatened species may provide suitable data for reporting on progress toward these goals and for informing national conservation priority setting. This information will also become increasingly important for developing species- and ecosystem-based strategies for climate change adaptation. We conducted a thorough global review of NRLs in 109 countries and analyzed gaps in NRL coverage in terms of geography and taxonomy to determine priority regions and taxonomic groups for further investment. We then examined correlations between the NRL data set and gross domestic product (GDP) and vertebrate species richness. The largest geographic gap was in Oceania, followed by middle Africa, the Caribbean, and western Africa, whereas the largest taxonomic gaps were for invertebrates, fungi, and lichens. The comprehensiveness of NRL coverage within a given country was positively correlated with GDP and negatively correlated with total vertebrate richness and threatened vertebrate richness. This supports the assertion that regions with the greatest and most vulnerable biodiversity receive the least conservation attention and indicates that financial resources may be an integral limitation. To improve coverage of NRLs, we propose a combination of projects that target underrepresented taxa or regions and projects that provide the means for countries to create or update NRLs on their own. We recommend improvements in knowledge transfer within and across regions as a priority for future investment.

Global patterns and predictors of marine biodiversity across taxa

Global patterns of species richness and their structuring forces have fascinated biologists since Darwin and provide critical context for contemporary studies in ecology, evolution and conservation. Anthropogenic impacts and the need for systematic conservation planning have further motivated the analysis of diversity patterns and processes at regional to global scales. Whereas land diversity patterns and their predictors are known for numerous taxa, our understanding of global marine diversity has been more limited, with recent findings revealing some striking contrasts to widely held terrestrial paradigms. Here we examine global patterns and predictors of species richness across 13 major species groups ranging from zooplankton to marine mammals. Two major patterns emerged: coastal species showed maximum diversity in the Western Pacific, whereas oceanic groups consistently peaked across broad mid-latitudinal bands in all oceans. Spatial regression analyses revealed sea surface temperature as the only environmental predictor highly related to diversity across all 13 taxa. Habitat availability and historical factors were also important for coastal species, whereas other predictors had less significance. Areas of high species richness were disproportionately concentrated in regions with medium or higher human impacts. Our findings indicate a fundamental role of temperature or kinetic energy in structuring cross-taxon marine biodiversity, and indicate that changes in ocean temperature, in conjunction with other human impacts, may ultimately rearrange the global distribution of life in the ocean.

Epidemic disease decimates amphibian abundance, species diversity, and evolutionary history in the highlands of central Panama

Amphibian populations around the world are experiencing unprecedented declines attributed to a chytrid fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Despite the severity of the crisis, quantitative analyses of the effects of the epidemic on amphibian abundance and diversity have been unavailable as a result of the lack of equivalent data collected before and following disease outbreak. We present a community-level assessment combining long-term field surveys and DNA barcode data describing changes in abundance and evolutionary diversity within the amphibian community of El Copé, Panama, following a disease epidemic and mass-mortality event. The epidemic reduced taxonomic, lineage, and phylogenetic diversity similarly. We discovered that 30 species were lost, including five undescribed species, representing 41% of total amphibian lineage diversity in El Copé. These extirpations represented 33% of the evolutionary history of amphibians within the community, and variation in the degree of population loss and decline among species was random with respect to the community phylogeny. Our approach provides a fast, economical, and informative analysis of loss in a community whether measured by species or phylogenetic diversity.

Novel survey method finds dramatic decline of wild cotton-top tamarin population

The cotton-top tamarin (Saguinus oedipus) is a critically endangered primate, endemic to the tropical forests of Colombia. Population monitoring is essential to evaluate the success of conservation efforts, yet standard survey methods are ineffective because animals flee silently before they are seen. We developed a novel technique that combines the use of playbacks of territorial vocalizations with traditional transect surveys. We used remote sensing to identify potential habitat within the species' historic range, and visited the 27% that we could survey safely. Of this, only 99 km(2) was extant forest, containing an estimated 2,045 animals (95% confidence interval 1,587-2,634). Assuming comparable densities in non-surveyed areas, approximately 7,394 wild cotton-top tamarins remain in Colombia. With 20-30,000 animals exported to the United States in the late 1960s, this must represent a precipitous decline. Habitat destruction and capture for the illegal pet trade are ongoing. Urgent conservation measures are required to prevent extinction in the wild.

Evaluating the relative environmental impact of countries

Environmental protection is critical to maintain ecosystem services essential for human well-being. It is important to be able to rank countries by their environmental impact so that poor performers as well as policy ‘models’ can be identified. We provide novel metrics of country-specific environmental impact ranks – one proportional to total resource availability per country and an absolute (total) measure of impact – that explicitly avoid incorporating confounding human health or economic indicators. Our rankings are based on natural forest loss, habitat conversion, marine captures, fertilizer use, water pollution, carbon emissions and species threat, although many other variables were excluded due to a lack of country-specific data. Of 228 countries considered, 179 (proportional) and 171 (absolute) had sufficient data for correlations. The proportional index ranked Singapore, Korea, Qatar, Kuwait, Japan, Thailand, Bahrain, Malaysia, Philippines and Netherlands as having the highest proportional environmental impact, whereas Brazil, USA, China, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, India, Russia, Australia and Peru had the highest absolute impact (i.e., total resource use, emissions and species threatened). Proportional and absolute environmental impact ranks were correlated, with mainly Asian countries having both high proportional and absolute impact. Despite weak concordance among the drivers of environmental impact, countries often perform poorly for different reasons. We found no evidence to support the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis of a non-linear relationship between impact and per capita wealth, although there was a weak reduction in environmental impact as per capita wealth increases. Using structural equation models to account for cross-correlation, we found that increasing wealth was the most important driver of environmental impact. Our results show that the global community not only has to encourage better environmental performance in less-developed countries, especially those in Asia, there is also a requirement to focus on the development of environmentally friendly practices in wealthier countries.

An integrated sampling and analysis approach for improved biodiversity monitoring

Successful biodiversity conservation requires high quality monitoring data and analyses to ensure scientifically defensible policy, legislation, and management. Although monitoring is a critical component in assessing population status and trends, many governmental and non-governmental organizations struggle to develop and implement effective sampling protocols and statistical analyses because of the magnitude and diversity of species in conservation concern. In this article we describe a practical and sophisticated data collection and analysis framework for developing a comprehensive wildlife monitoring program that includes multi-species inventory techniques and community-level hierarchical modeling. Compared to monitoring many species individually, the multi-species approach allows for improved estimates of individual species occurrences, including rare species, and an increased understanding of the aggregated response of a community to landscape and habitat heterogeneity. We demonstrate the benefits and practicality of this approach to address challenges associated with monitoring in the context of US state agencies that are legislatively required to monitor and protect species in greatest conservation need. We believe this approach will be useful to regional, national, and international organizations interested in assessing the status of both common and rare species.

Evolution of climate niches in European mammals?

Our ability to predict consequences of climate change is severely impaired by the lack of knowledge on the ability of species to adapt to changing environmental conditions. We used distribution data for 140 mammal species in Europe, together with data on climate, land cover and topography, to derive a statistical description of their realized climate niche. We then compared climate niche overlap of pairs of species, selected on the basis of phylogenetic information. In contrast to expectations, related species were not similar in their climate niche. Rather, even species pairs that had a common ancestor less than 1 Ma already display very high climate niche distances. We interpret our finding as a strong interspecific competitive constraint on the realized niche, rather than a rapid evolution of the fundamental niche. If correct, our results imply a very limited usefulness of climate niche models for the prediction of future mammal distributions.

The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern

Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16%) are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

The shrinking ark: patterns of large mammal extinctions in India

Mammal extinctions are widespread globally, with South Asian species being most threatened. We examine local extinctions of 25 mammals in India. We use historical records to obtain a set of locations at which each species was known to have been present at some time in the last 200 years. We then use occupancy estimation models to draw inferences about current presence at these same locations based on field observations of local experts. We examine predictions about the influence of key factors such as protected areas, forest cover, elevation, human population density and cultural tolerance on species extinction. For all 25 species, estimated local extinction probabilities (referenced to a 100 year time frame) range between 0.14 and 0.96. Time elapsed since the historical occurrence record was an important determinant of extinction probability for 14 species. Protected areas are positively associated with lower extinction of 18 species, although many species occur outside them. We find evidence that higher proportion of forest cover is associated with lower extinction probabilities for seven species. However, for species that prefer open habitats (which have experienced intensive land-use change), forest cover alone appears insufficient to ensure persistence (the complement of extinction). We find that higher altitude is positively associated with lower extinction for eight species. Human population density is positively associated with extinction of 13 species. We find that 'culturally tolerated' species do exhibit higher persistence. Overall, large-bodied, rare and habitat specialist mammals tend to have higher extinction probabilities.

Global conservation significance of Ecuador's Yasuní National Park

BACKGROUND

The threats facing Ecuador's Yasuní National Park are emblematic of those confronting the greater western Amazon, one of the world's last high-biodiversity wilderness areas. Notably, the country's second largest untapped oil reserves--called "ITT"--lie beneath an intact, remote section of the park. The conservation significance of Yasuní may weigh heavily in upcoming state-level and international decisions, including whether to develop the oil or invest in alternatives.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We conducted the first comprehensive synthesis of biodiversity data for Yasuní. Mapping amphibian, bird, mammal, and plant distributions, we found eastern Ecuador and northern Peru to be the only regions in South America where species richness centers for all four taxonomic groups overlap. This quadruple richness center has only one viable strict protected area (IUCN levels I-IV): Yasuní. The park covers just 14% of the quadruple richness center's area, whereas active or proposed oil concessions cover 79%. Using field inventory data, we compared Yasuní's local (alpha) and landscape (gamma) diversity to other sites, in the western Amazon and globally. These analyses further suggest that Yasuní is among the most biodiverse places on Earth, with apparent world richness records for amphibians, reptiles, bats, and trees. Yasuní also protects a considerable number of threatened species and regional endemics.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Yasuní has outstanding global conservation significance due to its extraordinary biodiversity and potential to sustain this biodiversity in the long term because of its 1) large size and wilderness character, 2) intact large-vertebrate assemblage, 3) IUCN level-II protection status in a region lacking other strict protected areas, and 4) likelihood of maintaining wet, rainforest conditions while anticipated climate change-induced drought intensifies in the eastern Amazon. However, further oil development in Yasuní jeopardizes its conservation values. These findings form the scientific basis for policy recommendations, including stopping any new oil activities and road construction in Yasuní and creating areas off-limits to large-scale development in adjacent northern Peru.

Effects of environmental change on wildlife health

Environmental change has negatively affected most biological systems on our planet and is becoming of increasing concern for the well-being and survival of many species. At an organism level, effects encompass not only endocrine disruptions, sex-ratio changes and decreased reproductive parameters, but also include teratogenic and genotoxic effects, immunosuppression and other immune-system impairments that can lead directly to disease or increase the risk of acquiring disease. Living organisms will strive to maintain health by recognizing and resolving abnormal situations, such as the presence of invading microorganisms or harmful peptides, abnormal cell replication and deleterious mutations. However, fast-paced environmental changes may pose additional pressure on immunocompetence and health maintenance, which may seriously impact population viability and persistence. Here, we outline the importance of a functional immune system for survival and examine the effects that exposure to a rapidly changing environment might exert on immunocompetence. We then address the various levels at which anthropogenic environmental change might affect wildlife health and identify potential deficits in reproductive parameters that might arise owing to new immune challenges in the context of a rapidly changing environment. Throughout the paper, a series of examples and case studies are used to illustrate the impact of environmental change on wildlife health.

Conservation and human behaviour: lessons from social psychology

Despite increased effort from non-governmental organisations, academics and governments over recent decades, several threats continue to cause species declines and even extinctions. Resource use by a growing human population is a significant driver of biodiversity loss, so conservation scientists need to be interested in the factors that motivate human behaviour. Economic models have been applied to human decision making for many years; however, humans are not financially rational beings and other characteristics of the decision maker (including attitude) and the pressure that people perceive to behave in a certain way (subjective norms) may influence decision making; these are characteristics considered by social psychologists interested in human decision making. We review social-psychology theories of behaviour and how they have been used in the context of conservation and natural-resource management. Many studies focus on general attitudes towards conservation rather than attitudes towards specific behaviours of relevance to conservation and thus have limited value in designing interventions to change specific behaviours (e.g. reduce hunting of a threatened species). By more specifically defining the behaviour of interest, and investigating attitude in the context of other social-psychological predictors of behaviour (e.g. subjective norms, the presence of facilitating factors and moral obligation), behaviours that have an impact on conservation goals will be better understood, allowing for the improved design of interventions to influence them.

Quantifying the extent of North American mammal extinction relative to the pre-anthropogenic baseline

Earth has experienced five major extinction events in the past 450 million years. Many scientists suggest we are now witnessing a sixth, driven by human impacts. However, it has been difficult to quantify the real extent of the current extinction episode, either for a given taxonomic group at the continental scale or for the worldwide biota, largely because comparisons of pre-anthropogenic and anthropogenic biodiversity baselines have been unavailable. Here, we compute those baselines for mammals of temperate North America, using a sampling-standardized rich fossil record to reconstruct species-area relationships for a series of time slices ranging from 30 million to 500 years ago. We show that shortly after humans first arrived in North America, mammalian diversity dropped to become at least 15%–42% too low compared to the “normal” diversity baseline that had existed for millions of years. While the Holocene reduction in North American mammal diversity has long been recognized qualitatively, our results provide a quantitative measure that clarifies how significant the diversity reduction actually was. If mass extinctions are defined as loss of at least 75% of species on a global scale, our data suggest that North American mammals had already progressed one-fifth to more than halfway (depending on biogeographic province) towards that benchmark, even before industrialized society began to affect them. Data currently are not available to make similar quantitative estimates for other continents, but qualitative declines in Holocene mammal diversity are also widely recognized in South America, Eurasia, and Australia. Extending our methodology to mammals in these areas, as well as to other taxa where possible, would provide a reasonable way to assess the magnitude of global extinction, the biodiversity impact of extinctions of currently threatened species, and the efficacy of conservation efforts into the future.

The future of tropical species on a warmer planet

Modern global temperature and land cover and projected future temperatures suggest that tropical forest species will be particularly sensitive to global warming. Given a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, fully 75% of the tropical forests present in 2000 will experience mean annual temperatures in 2100 that are greater than the highest mean annual temperature that supports closed-canopy forest today. Temperature-sensitive species might extend their ranges to cool refuges, defined here as areas where temperatures projected for 2100 match 1960s temperatures in the modern range. Distances to such cool refuges are greatest for equatorial species and are particularly large for key tropical forest areas including the Amazon and Congo River Basins, West Africa, and the upper elevations of many tropical mountains. In sum, tropical species are likely to be particularly sensitive to global warming because they are adapted to limited geographic and seasonal variation in temperature, already lived at or near the highest temperatures on Earth before global warming began, and are often isolated from cool refuges. To illustrate these three points, we examined the distributions and habitat associations of all extant mammal species. The distance to the nearest cool refuge exceeded 1000 km for more than 20% of the tropical and less than 4% of the extratropical species with small ranges. The biological impact of global warming is likely to be as severe in the tropics as at temperate and boreal latitudes.

Environmental synergisms and extinctions of tropical species

Environmental synergisms may pose the greatest threat to tropical biodiversity. Using recently updated data sets from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, we evaluated the incidence of perceived threats to all known mammal, bird, and amphibian species in tropical forests. Vulnerable, endangered, and extinct species were collectively far more likely to be imperiled by combinations of threats than expected by chance. Among 45 possible pairwise combinations of 10 different threats, 69%, 93%, and 71% were significantly more frequent than expected for threatened mammals, birds, and amphibians, respectively, even with a stringent Bonferroni-corrected probability value (p= 0.003). Based on this analysis, we identified five key environmental synergisms in the tropics and speculate on the existence of others. The most important involve interactions between habitat loss or alteration (from agriculture, urban sprawl, infrastructure, or logging) and other anthropogenic disturbances such as hunting, fire, exotic-species invasions, or pollution. Climatic change and emerging pathogens also can interact with other threats. We assert that environmental synergisms are more likely the norm than the exception for threatened species and ecosystems, can vary markedly in nature among geographic regions and taxa, and may be exceedingly difficult to predict in terms of their ultimate impacts. The perils posed by environmental synergisms highlight the need for a precautionary approach to tropical biodiversity conservation.

Plants on the IUCN Red List: setting priorities to inform conservation

The continuing decline of plant diversity will have a greater impact on human society than any other type of biodiversity loss. It is imperative, therefore, that efforts are increased to assess the conservation status of plants for the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the de facto baseline reference for many conservation decisions. As discussed here, a review of plants on the current Red List suggests that priorities for future Red Listing should serve multiple purposes: to inform national conservation policy, to contribute to global conservation analyses, to encompass the phylogenetic diversity of plants and to address the dependence of human societies on plants. Future progress in plant Red Listing requires greater participation by the world's herbaria and increased support for expert networks.

Where next?

This paper provides a personal perspective on the rich discussions at the Bixby Forum. The size, rate of growth and age structure of the human population interact with many other key factors, from environmental change to governance. While the details of future interactions are sometimes difficult to predict, taken together they pose sombre threats to a socially and economically sustainable future for the rich and to any realistic possibility of lifting the world's bottom two billion people out of poverty. Adaptive changes will be needed to cope with an ageing population in countries with low fertility or below, but these are achievable. More worrying, continued rapid population growth in many of the least developed countries could lead to hunger, a failure of education to keep pace with growing numbers, and conflict. The assumption that the demographic transition from high to low birth rates occurs as a result of exogenous social and economic forces is being replaced by a clearer understanding of the many barriers that separate women from the knowledge and technologies they need to manage their childbearing within a human rights framework. The forum ended with a clear consensus that much more emphasis needs to be given to meeting the need for family planning and to investing in education.

Quaternary climate change and the geographic ranges of mammals

A species' range can be a proxy for its ecological well-being. Species with small and shrinking range distributions are particularly vulnerable to extinction. Future climate change scenarios are predicted to affect species' geographical extents, but data on how species' distributions respond to changing climate are largely anecdotal, and our understanding of the determinants and limits to species geographic ranges is surprisingly poor. Here we show that mammal species in more historically variable environments have larger geographical ranges. However, the relationship between range size and long-term climate trends cannot be explained by variation in our estimates of habitat specificity. We suggest that large oscillations in Quaternary temperatures may have shaped the contemporary distribution of range sizes via the selective extirpation of small-ranged species during glacial expansion and/or recolonization by good dispersers after glacial retreats. The effect of current climate change on species' distributions and extinctions may therefore be determined by the geographical coincidence between historical and future climate scenarios, the "mesh size" of the extinction/dispersal filter imposed by past climate change, and whether similar ecological and evolutionary responses to historical climatic change are appropriate in an increasingly transformed and fragmented landscape.

The sixth mass coextinction: are most endangered species parasites and mutualists?

The effects of species declines and extinction on biotic interactions remain poorly understood. The loss of a species is expected to result in the loss of other species that depend on it (coextinction), leading to cascading effects across trophic levels. Such effects are likely to be most severe in mutualistic and parasitic interactions. Indeed, models suggest that coextinction may be the most common form of biodiversity loss. Paradoxically, few historical or contemporary coextinction events have actually been recorded. We review the current knowledge of coextinction by: (i) considering plausible explanations for the discrepancy between predicted and observed coextinction rates; (ii) exploring the potential consequences of coextinctions; (iii) discussing the interactions and synergies between coextinction and other drivers of species loss, particularly climate change; and (iv) suggesting the way forward for understanding the phenomenon of coextinction, which may well be the most insidious threat to global biodiversity.

Conservation biology in Asia: the major policy challenges

With about half the world's human population and booming economies, Asia faces numerous challenges to its biodiversity. The Asia Section of the Society for Conservation Biology has identified some key policy issues in which significant progress can be made. These include developing new sources of funding for forest conservation; identifying potential impacts of energy alternatives on the conservation of biodiversity; curbing the trade in endangered species of plants and animals; a special focus on the conservation of mountain biodiversity; enhancing relevant research; ensuring that conservation biology contributes to major international conventions and funding mechanisms; using conservation biology to build a better understanding of zoonotic diseases; more effectively addressing human-animal conflicts; enhancing community-based conservation; and using conservation biology to help address the pervasive water-deficit problems in much of Asia. These challenges can be met through improved regional cooperation among the relevant stakeholders.

Multiple ecological pathways to extinction in mammals

As human population and resource demands continue to grow, biodiversity conservation has never been more critical. About one-quarter of all mammals are in danger of extinction, and more than half of all mammal populations are in decline. A major priority for conservation science is to understand the ecological traits that predict extinction risk and the interactions among those predictors that make certain species more vulnerable than others. Here, using a new database of nearly 4,500 mammal species, we use decision-tree models to quantify the multiple interacting factors associated with extinction risk. We show that the correlates of extinction risk vary widely across mammals and that there are unique pathways to extinction for species with different lifestyles and combinations of traits. We find that risk is relative and that all kinds of mammals, across all body sizes, can be at risk depending on their specific ecologies. Our results increase the understanding of extinction processes, generate simple rules of thumb that identify species at greatest risk, and highlight the potential of decision-tree analyses to inform conservation efforts.