Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography

What and where? Predicting invasion hotspots in the Arctic marine realm

The risk of aquatic invasions in the Arctic is expected to increase with climate warming, greater shipping activity and resource exploitation in the region. Planktonic and benthic marine aquatic invasive species (AIS) with the greatest potential for invasion and impact in the Canadian Arctic were identified and the 23 riskiest species were modelled to predict their potential spatial distributions at pan-Arctic and global scales. Modelling was conducted under present environmental conditions and two intermediate future (2050 and 2100) global warming scenarios. Invasion hotspots-regions of the Arctic where habitat is predicted to be suitable for a high number of potential AIS-were located in Hudson Bay, Northern Grand Banks/Labrador, Chukchi/Eastern Bering seas and Barents/White seas, suggesting that these regions could be more vulnerable to invasions. Globally, both benthic and planktonic organisms showed a future poleward shift in suitable habitat. At a pan-Arctic scale, all organisms showed suitable habitat gains under future conditions. However, at the global scale, habitat loss was predicted in more tropical regions for some taxa, particularly most planktonic species. Results from the present study can help prioritize management efforts in the face of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem. Moreover, this particular approach provides information to identify present and future high-risk areas for AIS in response to global warming.

Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Impacts of climate change on current and future invasion of Prosopis juliflora in Ethiopia: environmental and socio-economic implications

Prosopis juliflora is a serious invader, causing great ecological and economic damage in Ethiopia. Thus, it is imperative to examine potential invasion dynamics of P. juliflora at national level under climate change scenario to better influence decision making processes on the management of this invasive species. We derived a consensus model from five modeling approaches to examine the current and future (2050 and 2070) climatic suitability for P. juliflora under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in Ethiopia. Under the current climatic scenario, 94.8% of the country was non-suitable for P. juliflora establishment and invasion while 0.4% (4.56 million ha) was highly suitable. In 2050, highly suitable area for P. juliflora is expected to increase by 55.6% and 63.6%, while moderately suitable area is projected to increase by 33.3% and 42.9% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Compared to the current climatic condition, in 2070, highly suitable area for the species is projected to increase by 73.3% (3.43 million ha) and 80.0% (3.65 million ha) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. With the current cover, this invasive species had already caused significant impact on rangelands in many parts of the country. Its further expansion would worsen the problem, leading to great environmental and economic damage, thereby threatening the livelihood of the community. Negative environmental and economical impacts caused by the species will be high if preventive and effective management measures are not earnestly taken, and it becomes one of the major challenges for the 21st century pastoralism and their livelihoods. We recommend a national effort be organized towards combating P. juliflora expansion to new areas, especially in regions and protected area predicted as frontiers of potential expansion.

The potential current distribution of the coypu (Myocastor coypus) in Europe and climate change induced shifts in the near future

The coypu (Myocastor coypus) is a semi-aquatic rodent native to South America which has become invasive in Europe and other parts of the world. Although recently listed as species of European Union concern in the EU Invasive Alien Species Regulation, an analysis of the current European occurrence and of its potential current and future distribution was missing yet. We collected 24,232 coypu records (corresponding to 25,534 grid cells at 5 × 5 km) between 1980 and 2018 from a range of sources and 28 European countries and analysed them spatiotemporally, categorising them into persistence levels. Using logistic regression, we constructed consensus predictions across all persistence levels to depict the potential current distribution of the coypu in Europe and its change under four different climate scenarios for 2041–2060. From all presence grid cells, 45.5% showed at least early signs of establishment (records temporally covering a minimum of one generation length, i.e. 5 years), whereas 9.8% were considered as containing established populations (i.e. three generation lengths of continuous coverage). The mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), mean diurnal temperature range (bio2) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) were the most important of the analysed predictors. In total, 42.9% of the study area are classified as suitable under current climatic conditions, of which 72.6% are to current knowledge yet unoccupied; therefore, we show that the coypu has, by far, not yet reached all potentially suitable regions in Europe. Those cover most of temperate Europe (Atlantic, Continental and Pannonian biogeographic region), as well as the coastal regions of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. A comparison of the suitable and occupied areas showed that none of the affected countries has reached saturation by now. Under climate change scenarios, suitable areas will slightly shift towards Northern regions, while a general decrease in suitability is predicted for Southern and Central Europe (overall decrease of suitable areas 2–8% depending on the scenario). Nevertheless, most regions that are currently suitable for coypus are likely to be so in the future. We highlight the need to further investigate upper temperature limits in order to properly interpret future climatic suitability for the coypu in Southern Europe. Based on our results, we identify regions that are most at risk for future invasions and provide management recommendations. We hope that this study will help to improve the allocation of efforts for future coypu research and contribute to harmonised management, which is essential to reduce negative impacts of the coypu and to prevent further spread in Europe.

Societal attention toward extinction threats: a comparison between climate change and biological invasions

Public attention and interest in the fate of endangered species is a crucial prerequisite for effective conservation programs. Societal awareness and values will largely determine whether conservation initiatives receive necessary support and lead to adequate policy change. Using text data mining, we assessed general public attention in France, Germany and the United Kingdom toward climate change and biological invasions in relation to endangered amphibian, reptile, bird and mammal species. Our analysis revealed that public attention patterns differed among species groups and countries but was globally higher for climate change than for biological invasions. Both threats received better recognition in threatened than in non-threatened species, as well as in native species than in species from other countries and regions. We conclude that more efficient communication regarding the threat from biological invasions should be developed, and that conservation practitioners should take advantage of the existing attention toward climate change.

Current and future spatial assessment of biological control as a mechanism to reduce economic losses and carbon emissions: the case of Solanum sisymbriifolium in Africa

BACKGROUND

Solanum sisymbriifolium is a native plant of South America introduced into Africa, which has detrimental effects on crop yields, and on the environment due to weed control treatment by burning. In South America, S. sisymbriifolium is naturally controlled by the beetle Gratiana spadicea, making this a potential option for its control in Africa. Here, we aim to generate current and future scenarios for the introduction of G. spadicea as a biocontrol agent in Africa, analysing: (i) current and future effective biocontrol areas; (ii) potentially avoided economic losses (AEL), and chemical control costs and savings; and (iii) avoided carbon emissions (ACE) associated with the non-burning of crop fields. We combine species distribution models (SDM) with land cover maps to estimate current and future effective biocontrol considering Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. We then estimate AEL and ACE using biocontrol, and chemical control costs and savings.

RESULTS

The effective biocontrol area reached 392 405 km² in 18 countries, representing 40% of potentially affected croplands. Climate change induced a decrease in affected croplands and effective biocontrol. The estimated AEL reached US$45 447.2 ± 5617.3 billion distributed across 16 countries, while the estimated chemical control costs and savings reached US$1988.5 billion and 1411.8 billion, respectively. Potential ACE reached 36.3 ± 5.4 Tg.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides evidence for the potential benefits of biological controllers on economic losses and carbon emissions, which can be incorporated into sustainable development in low-income countries.

Towards the implementation of a DNA barcode library for the identification of Peruvian species of Anastrepha (Diptera: Tephritidae)

The genus Anastrepha is a diverse lineage of fruit-damaging tephritid flies widespread across the Neotropical Region. Accurate taxonomic identification of these flies is therefore of paramount importance in agricultural contexts. DNA barcoding libraries are molecular-based tools based on a short sequence of the mitochondrial COI gene enabling rapid taxonomic identification of biological species. In this study, we evaluate the utility of this method for species identification of Peruvian species of Anastrepha and assemble a preliminary barcode profile for the group. We obtained 73 individual sequences representing the 15 most common species, 13 of which were either assigned to previously recognized or newly established BINs. Intraspecific genetic divergence between sampled species averaged 1.01% (range 0-3.3%), whereas maximum interspecific values averaged 8.67 (range 8.26-17.12%). DNA barcoding was found to be an effective method to discriminate between many Peruvian species of Anastrepha that were tested, except for most species of the fraterculus species group, which were all assigned to the same BIN as they shared similar and, in some cases, identical barcodes. We complemented this newly produced dataset with 86 published sequences to build a DNA barcoding library of 159 sequences representing 56 Peruvian species of Anastrepha (approx. 58% of species reported from that country). We conclude that DNA barcoding is an effective method to distinguish among Peruvian species of Anastrepha outside the fraterculus group, and that complementary methods (e.g., morphometrics, additional genetic markers) would be desirable to assist sensu stricto species identification for phytosanitary surveillance and management practices of this important group of pestiferous flies.

Alien aquatic plants in Slovakia over 130 years: historical overview, current distribution and future perspectives

Alien aquatic plants rank amongst the major threats to aquatic biodiversity and, since ongoing climate change is expected to facilitate their further spread, there is an urgent need for sound knowledge of their distribution and ecology. We collected published and unpublished data spanning the last ~130 years and performed the first comprehensive assessment of alien aquatic vascular plants in Slovakia with the following aims: (i) to prepare a national inventory, (ii) to assess the effects of climate and landscape on species diversity and (iii) to evaluate the habitat preferences of the species. The historical overview showed a strongly increasing trend in the number of alien species related to an increased amount of intensive research of aquatic vegetation over the last 30 years. Altogether, 20 neophyte alien aquatic plant taxa were recorded from 479 sampling sites. However, the species inventory seems to be far from complete and approximately 14 species are expected to remain undetected. Elodeacanadensis and E.nuttallii are the most frequently occurring alien aquatic plants, while eight other species have been found at a single site only. The majority of alien plants were deliberately introduced as aquarium ornamentals or released through pond waste. The fragmented information on local habitat conditions did not allow us to draw firm conclusions about the habitat preferences of alien aquatic plants. However, artificial water bodies are more frequently colonised by alien species than natural habitats (95% of aliens were found in artificial water bodies and 60% of them were recorded exclusively in these habitats) and many species have broad environmental tolerances (ability to colonise both standing and running waters, tolerances to a wide range of temperatures and water chemistry). Our results reaffirm the major role of increased temperatures and landscape modification in the distribution of alien aquatic plants and we can expect enhanced invasiveness and spreading of alien species into new habitats driven by climate change and land use intensification. Filling a main gap in the recognition of alien aquatic plant environmental preferences is a challenge for future research with the ultimate goal of maintaining natural aquatic plant diversity and ecosystem functioning.

Increases in local richness (α-diversity) following invasion are offset by biotic homogenization in a biodiversity hotspot

The world's ecosystems are experiencing unparalleled rates of biodiversity change, with invasive species implicated as one of the drivers that restructure local assemblages. Here we focus on the processes leading to biodiversity change in a biodiversity hotspot, the Brazilian Cerrado. The null expectation that invasion leads to increase in local species richness is supported by our investigation of the grass layer in two key habitats (campo sujo and campo úmido). Our analysis uncovered a linear relationship between total richness and invasive richness at the plot level. However, because the invasive species-even though few in number-are widespread, their contribution to local richness (α-diversity) is offset by their homogenizing influence on composition (β-diversity). We thus identify a mechanism that can help explain the paradox that species richness is not declining in many local assemblages, yet compositional change is exceeding the predictions of ecological theory. As such, our results emphasize the importance of quantifying both α-diversity and β-diversity in assessments of biodiversity change in the contemporary world.

Potential invasive plant expansion in global ecoregions under climate change

Climate change is increasing the risk of invasive plant expansion worldwide. However, few studies have specified the relationship between invasive plant expansion and ecoregions at the global scale under climate change. To address this gap, we provide risk maps highlighting the response of invasive plant species (IPS), with a focus on terrestrial and freshwater ecoregions to climate change, and further explore the climatic features of ecosystems with a high potential for invasive plant expansion under climate change. We use species distribution modelling to predict the suitable habitats of IPS with records at the global scale. Hotspots with a potential risk of IPS (such as aquatic plants, trees, and herbs) expanding in global ecoregions were distributed in Northern Europe, the UK, South America, North America, southwest China, and New Zealand. Temperature changes were related to the potential of IPS expansion in global ecoregions under climate change. Coastal and high latitude ecoregions, such as temperate forests, alpine vegetation, and coastal rivers, were severely infiltrated by IPS under climate change. Monitoring strategies should be defined for climate change for IPS, particularly for aquatic plants, trees, and herbs in the biomes of regions with coastal or high latitudes. The role of climate change on the potential for IPS expansion should be taken into consideration for biological conservation and risk evaluation of IPS at ecoregional scales.