Amputation-free survival in 17,353 people at high risk for foot ulceration in diabetes: a national observational study

Diabetic foot ulcer incidence and survival with improved diabetic foot services: an 18-year study

AIMS

To ascertain the effects of improvements in diabetic foot services over 18 years on incidence of diabetic foot ulceration. We also compared survival time from first ulcer development with presence of neuropathy, peripheral vascular disease, age and healing.

METHODS

Persons with new ulceration and those at high risk of ulcer development were referred to community podiatry from 1998. Their details were recorded, with verbal consent, on a central database. The effects of neuropathy, peripheral vascular disease, healing and age on survival were analysed by Cox proportional hazards ratios.

RESULTS

The incidence of first ulcer presentation decreased from 11.1 to 6.1 per 1000 persons between 2003 to 2017 (P <0.0001). Recurrent ulceration incidence remained stable. Prevalence of chronic and new foot ulceration combined increased from 20.7 to 33.1 per 1000 persons (P <0.0001). Ten-year survival was 85% for persons presenting with first ulcer and aged < 65 years, 50% for those aged 65-74 years and 25% for those aged 75-81 years (P < 0.0001). In those with peripheral vascular disease 5-year survival was 35% (P <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Integrated care for the diabetic foot in one National Health Service (NHS) health service area over 18 years was associated with a reduction in first presentations of diabetic foot ulceration, but failed to reduce recurrent ulceration. Cumulative prevalence of all ulcers continues to increase. Monitoring ulceration incidence can inform audit and planning of diabetic foot care services. Survival is better than reported previously in persons < 65 years and in the absence of peripheral vascular disease.

Five-year mortality in patients with diabetic foot ulcer during 2009-2010 was lower than expected

AIM

Mortality rates are decreasing in patients with diabetes. However, as this observation also concerns patients with diabetic foot ulcer (DFU), additional data are needed. For this reason, our study evaluated the 5-year mortality rate in patients with DFU during 2009-2010 and identified risk factors associated with mortality.

METHODS

Consecutive patients who attended a clinic for new DFU during 2009-2010 were followed until healing and at 1 year. Data on mortality were collected at year 5. Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model was used to identify mortality risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 347 patients were included: mean age was 65±12 years, diabetes duration was 16 [10; 27] years; 13% were on dialysis; and 7% had an organ transplant. At 5 years, 49 patients (14%) were considered lost to follow-up. Total mortality rate at 5 years was 35%, and 16% in patients with neuropathy. On multivariate analyses, mortality was positively associated with: age [hazard ratio (HR): 1.05 (1.03-1.07), P<0.0001]; duration of diabetes [HR: 1.02 (1.001-1.03], P=0.03]; PEDIS perfusion grade 2 vs. 1 [HR: 2.35 (1.28-4.29), P=0.006)]; PEDIS perfusion grade 3 vs. 1 [HR: 3.14 (1.58-6.24), P=0.001); and ulcer duration at year 1 [HR 2.09 (1.35-3.22), P=0.0009].

CONCLUSION

Mortality rates were not as high as expected despite the large number of comorbidities, suggesting that progress has been made in the health management of these patients. In particular, patients with neuropathic foot ulcer had a survival rate of 84% at 5 years.