Disease System Analysis: Basic Disease Progression Models in Degenerative Disease

Integrated pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics in drug development

Drug development is a complex, lengthy and expensive process. Pharmaceutical companies and regulatory authorities have recognised that the drug development process needs optimisation for efficiency in view of the return on investments. Pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics are the two main principles determining the relationship between dose and response. This article provides an update on integrated approaches towards drug development by linking pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and disease aspects into mathematical models. Gradually, a transition is taking place from a rather empirical approach towards a modelling- and simulation-based approach to drug development. The main learning phases should be phases 0, I and II, whereas phase III studies should merely have a confirmatory purpose. In model-based drug development, mechanism-based mathematical models, which are iteratively refined along the path of development, incorporate the accumulating knowledge of the investigational drug, the disease and their mutual interference in different subsets of the target population. These models facilitate the design of the next study and improve the probability of achieving the projected efficacy and safety endpoints. In this article, several theoretical and practical aspects of an integrated approach towards drug development are discussed, together with some case studies from different therapeutic areas illustrating the application of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic disease models at different stages of drug development.

Mechanism-Based Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Modeling: Biophase Distribution, Receptor Theory, and Dynamical Systems Analysis

Mechanism-based PK-PD models differ from conventional PK-PD models in that they contain specific expressions to characterize, in a quantitative manner, processes on the causal path between drug administration and effect. This includes target site distribution, target binding and activation, pharmacodynamic interactions, transduction, and homeostatic feedback mechanisms. As the final step, the effects on disease processes and disease progression are considered. Particularly through the incorporation of concepts from receptor theory and dynamical systems analysis, important progress has been made in the field of mechanism-based PK-PD modeling. This has yielded models with much-improved properties for extrapolation and prediction. These models constitute a theoretical basis for rational drug discovery and development.

Model-based drug development: the road to quantitative pharmacology

High development costs and low success rates in bringing new medicines to the market demand more efficient and effective approaches. Identified by the FDA as a valuable prognostic tool for fulfilling such a demand, model-based drug development is a mathematical and statistical approach that constructs, validates, and utilizes disease models, drug exposure-response models, and pharmacometric models to facilitate drug development. Quantitative pharmacology is a discipline that learns and confirms the key characteristics of new molecular entities in a quantitative manner, with goal of providing explicit, reproducible, and predictive evidence for optimizing drug development plans and enabling critical decision making. Model-based drug development serves as an integral part of quantitative pharmacology. This work reviews the general concept, basic elements, and evolving role of model-based drug development in quantitative pharmacology. Two case studies are presented to illustrate how the model-based drug development approach can facilitate knowledge management and decision making during drug development. The case studies also highlight the organizational learning that comes through implementation of quantitative pharmacology as a discipline. Finally, the prospects of quantitative pharmacology as an emerging discipline are discussed. Advances in this discipline will require continued collaboration between academia, industry and regulatory agencies.

A Mechanism-based Disease Progression Model for Comparison of Long-term Effects of Pioglitazone, Metformin and Gliclazide on Disease Processes Underlying Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Effective long-term treatment of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) implies modification of the disease processes that cause this progressive disorder. This paper proposes a mechanism-based approach to disease progression modeling of T2DM that aims to provide the ability to describe and quantify the effects of treatment on the time-course of the progressive loss of beta-cell function and insulin-sensitivity underlying T2DM. It develops a population pharmacodynamic model that incorporates mechanism-based representations of the homeostatic feedback relationships between fasting levels of plasma glucose (FPG) and fasting serum insulin (FSI), and the physiological feed-forward relationship between FPG and glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). This model was developed on data from two parallel one-year studies comparing the effects of pioglitazone relative to metformin or sulfonylurea treatment in 2,408 treatment-naïve T2DM patients. It was found that the model provided accurate descriptions of the time-courses of FPG and HbA1c for different treatment arms. It allowed the identification of the long-term effects of different treatments on loss of beta-cell function and insulin-sensitivity, independently from their immediate anti-hyperglycemic effects modeled at their specific sites of action. Hence it avoided the confounding of these effects that is inherent in point estimates of beta-cell function and insulin-sensitivity such as the widely used HOMA-%B and HOMA-%S. It was also found that metformin therapy did not result in a reduction in FSI levels in conjunction with reduced FPG levels, as expected for an insulin-sensitizer, whereas pioglitazone therapy did. It is concluded that, although its current implementation leaves room for further improvement, the mechanism-based approach presented here constitutes a promising conceptual advance in the study of T2DM disease progression and disease modification.

Mechanism-Based Pharmacokinetic–Pharmacodynamic Modeling—A New Classification of Biomarkers

In recent years, pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modeling has developed from an empirical descriptive discipline into a mechanistic science that can be applied at all stages of drug development. Mechanism-based PK/PD models differ from empirical descriptive models in that they contain specific expressions to characterize processes on the causal path between drug administration and effect. Mechanism-based PK/PD models have much improved properties for extrapolation and prediction. As such, they constitute a scientific basis for rational drug discovery and development. In this report, a novel classification of biomarkers is proposed. Within the context of mechanism-based PK/PD modeling, a biomarker is defined as a measure that characterizes, in a strictly quantitative manner, a process, which is on the causal path between drug administration and effect. The new classification system distinguishes seven types of biomarkers: type 0, genotype/phenotype determining drug response; type 1, concentration of drug or drug metabolite; type 2, molecular target occupancy; type 3, molecular target activation; type 4, physiological measures; type 5, pathophysiological measures; and type 6, clinical ratings. In this paper, the use of the new biomarker classification is discussed in the context of the application of mechanism-based PK/PD analysis in drug discovery and development.