When and Where Birth Spacing Matters for Child Survival: An International Comparison Using the DHS

The Crucial Role of Mothers and Siblings in Child Survival: Evidence From 29 Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa

A considerable body of research has studied the effects of siblings on child mortality through birth intervals. This research has commonly focused on older siblings. We argue that birth intervals with younger siblings may have equal or stronger effects on child mortality, even during a mother's pregnancy. Moreover, we contend that birth interval effects need to be considered only when siblings are coresident. Using longitudinal data from 29 Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems across sub-Saharan Africa, covering more than 560,000 children, we examine the proximate role of siblings and mothers in child mortality. We find that a birth interval of 24 months or more is advantageous for both older and younger siblings. The effect of a younger sibling on child mortality is more pronounced than that of an older sibling and adds to the effect of an older sibling. Moreover, child mortality is particularly low during a mother's subsequent pregnancy, contrasting the shock resulting from a younger sibling's birth. Further, we find that a mother's or sibling's absence from the household results in a higher risk of mortality, and the death of either reduces child survival up to six months before the death.

Effect of Birth Interval on Foetal and Postnatal Child Growth

BACKGROUND

Although available evidence suggests short birth intervals are associated with adverse perinatal outcomes, little is known about the extent to which birth spacing affects postnatal child growth. The present study assessed the independent association of birth interval with birth weight and subsequent postnatal growth indices.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study carried out in the rural areas of Kassena-Nankana district of Ghana compared postnatal growth across different categories of birth intervals. Birth intervals were calculated as month difference between consecutive births of a woman. The study population comprised 530 postpartum women who had delivered a live baby in the past 24 months prior to the study.

RESULTS

Using the analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) that adjusted for age of the child, gender of the child, weight-for-length z-score (WLZ), birth weight, adequacy of antenatal care (ANC) attendance, and dietary diversity of the child, the mean length-for-age z-score (LAZ) among children of short preceding birth interval (<24 months) was significantly higher than among children of long birth interval (that is, at least 24 months) ((0.51 versus -0.04) (95% CI: 0.24-0.87), p = 0.001). The adjusted mean birth weight of children born to mothers of longer birth interval was 74.0 g more than children born to mothers of shorter birth interval (CI: 5.89-142.0, p< 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that a short birth interval is associated positively with an increased risk of low birth weight (an indicator of foetal growth), but birth spacing is associated negatively with the LAZ (an indicator of postnatal growth).

Effects of previous birth interval length on child outcomes can be estimated in a sibling analysis even when there are only two siblings

BACKGROUND

There is much interest in how the length of the previous birth interval affects various child outcomes, and it has become increasingly common to estimate such effects from sibling models. This is because one then controls for unobserved determinants of the outcome that are shared between the siblings and linked to the birth interval length. However, it is a common idea that such effects can only be estimated from data on families with three or more children.

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this paper is to show, through an intuitive argument and a simulation experiment, that it is possible to estimate effects of birth interval only from families with two children.

METHODS

Observations are simulated from two equations for fertility and one equation for child mortality. The fertility equations include a random term that is assumed to be correlated with the random term in the mortality equation. Mortality models are then estimated from the simulated observations. This is done 1000 times, and the averages of the 1000 sets of estimates are calculated.

RESULTS

The simulation experiment illustrates that it is indeed possible (by using a model specification that takes into account that no birth interval is defined for the first birth) to estimate birth interval effects in sibling models even when the data include only families with two children.

CONCLUSION

It is good news that families with only two children can contribute to the estimation of birth interval effects. This is because, with a broader basis for the estimation, the precision is improved and there is less reason for concern about the general relevance of the estimates. An important limitation, however, is that it is potentially problematic to control for maternal age in a sibling model estimated only for the first and second child.

The Effect of Reframing the Goals of Family Planning Programs from Limiting Fertility to Birth Spacing: Evidence from Pakistan

Contraceptive prevalence in Pakistan has plateaued near 34 percent for over a decade, suggesting that fertility levels are likely to stay high unless effective interventions are designed. We evaluate the Family Advancement for Life and Health 2007–2012 (FALAH), a family planning project implemented in 31 districts of Pakistan. Deviating from previous programs, FALAH emphasized birth spacing—as opposed to limiting family size—as the primary purpose of contraceptive use. We use Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey to evaluate FALAH's impact on continuous and binary measures of birth intervals. To estimate the causal effects of the project, we compare the outcomes for multiple children born to the same mother before and after the project. We find that FALAH increased interbirth intervals by 2.4 months on average and reduced the proportion of short birth intervals by approximately 7.1 percentage points. This finding suggests that birth spacing as a goal of contraceptive use may resonate better with Pakistani couples than limiting family size. The project's effects were more pronounced for women with high education, in rural areas, and in the middle of the wealth distribution.

Causes of short birth interval (kunika) in Bauchi State, Nigeria: systematizing local knowledge with fuzzy cognitive mapping

BACKGROUND

Short birth intervals, defined by the World Health Organization as less than 33 months, may damage the health and wellbeing of children, mothers, and their families. People in northern Nigeria recognise many adverse effects of short birth interval (kunika in the Hausa language) but it remains common. We used fuzzy cognitive mapping to systematize local knowledge of causes of kunika to inform the co-design of culturally safe strategies to address it.

METHODS

Male and female groups in twelve communities built 48 maps of causes and protective factors for kunika, and government officers from the Local Government Area (LGA) and State made four maps. Each map showed causes of kunika or no-kunika, with arrows showing relationships with the outcome and between causes. Participants assigned weights for the perceived strength of relationships between 5 (strongest) and 1 (weakest). We combined maps for each group: men, women, and government officers. Fuzzy transitive closure calculated the maximum influence of each factor on the outcome, taking account of all relationships in the map. To condense the maps, we grouped individual factors into broader categories and calculated the cumulative net influence of each category. We made further summarised maps and presented these to the community mapping groups to review.

RESULTS

The community maps identified frequent sex, not using modern or traditional contraception, and family dynamics (such as competition between wives) as the most influential causes of kunika. Women identified forced sex and men highlighted lack of awareness about contraception and fear of side effects as important causes of kunika. Lack of male involvement featured in women's maps of causes and in the maps from LGA and State levels. Maps of protective factors largely mirrored those of the causes. Community groups readily appreciated and approved the summary maps resulting from the analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The maps showed how kunika results from a complex network of interacting factors, with culture-specific dynamics. Simply promoting contraception alone is unlikely to be enough to reduce kunika. Outputs from transitive closure analysis can be made accessible to ordinary stakeholders, allowing their meaningful participation in interpretation and use of the findings. For people in Bauchi State, northern Nigeria, kunika describes a short interval between successive births, understood as becoming pregnant again before the previous child is weaned. They recognise it is bad for children, mothers and households. We worked with 12 communities in Bauchi to map their knowledge of the causes and protective factors for kunika. Separate groups of men and women built 48 maps, and government officers at local and state level built four maps. Each group drew two maps showing causes of kunika or of no-kunika with arrows showing the links between causes and the outcome. Participants marked the strength of each link with a number (between 5 for the strongest and 1 for the weakest). We combined maps for women, men and government officers. We grouped similar causes together into broader categories. We calculated the overall influence of each category on kunika or no-kunika and produced summary maps to communicate findings. The maps identified the strongest causes of kunika as frequent sex, not using modern or traditional contraception, and family dynamics. Women indicated forced sex as an important cause, but men focused on lack of awareness about contraception and fear of side effects. The maps of protective factors mirrored those of the causes. The groups who created the maps approved the summary maps. The maps showed the complex causes of kunika in Bauchi. Promoting contraception is unlikely to be enough on its own to reduce kunika. The summary maps will help local stakeholders to co-design culturally safe ways of reducing kunika.

Linking the timing of a mother's and child's death: Comparative evidence from two rural South African population-based surveillance studies, 2000-2015

BACKGROUND

The effect of the period before a mother's death on child survival has been assessed in only a few studies. We conducted a comparative investigation of the effect of the timing of a mother's death on child survival up to age five years in rural South Africa.

METHODS

We used discrete time survival analysis on data from two HIV-endemic population surveillance sites (2000-2015) to estimate a child's risk of dying before and after their mother's death. We tested if this relationship varied between sites and by availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We assessed if related adults in the household altered the effect of a mother's death on child survival.

FINDINGS

3,618 children died from 2000-2015. The probability of a child dying began to increase in the 7-11 months prior to the mother's death and increased markedly in the 3 months before (2000-2003 relative risk = 22.2, 95% CI = 14.2-34.6) and 3 months following her death (2000-2003 RR = 20.1; CI = 10.3-39.4). This increased risk pattern was evident at both sites. The pattern attenuated with ART availability but remained even with availability at both sites. The father and maternal grandmother in the household lowered children's mortality risk independent of the association between timing of mother and child mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The persistence of elevated mortality risk both before and after the mother's death for children of different ages suggests that absence of maternal care and abrupt breastfeeding cessation might be crucial risk factors. Formative research is needed to understand the circumstances for children when a mother is very ill or dies, and behavioral and other risk factors that increase both the mother and child's risk of dying. Identifying families when a mother is very ill and implementing training and support strategies for other members of the household are urgently needed to reduce preventable child mortality.

Decomposition of Improvements in Infant Mortality in Asian Developing Countries Over Three Decades

Low- and middle-income countries in Asia have seen substantial improvements in infant mortality over the last three decades. This study examines the factors contributing to the improvement in infant survival in their first year in six Asian countries: Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Pakistan, and the Philippines. I decompose the overall improvement in the infant survival rate in the respective countries from the 1990s to the 2010s into the part that can be explained by the improvements in circumstantial environments in which infants develop and the remaining part that is due to the structural change in the hazard functions. This decomposition is achieved by employing the random survival forest, allowing me to predict the counterfactual infant survival probability that infants in the 2010s would have under the circumstantial environments of the 1990s. The results show that large parts of the improvement are explained by the improvement in the environments in all the countries being analyzed. I find that the reduction in family size, increased use of antenatal care, longer pregnancy periods, and improved living standards were associated with the improvement of the infant mortality rate in all six countries.

A multilevel analysis of short birth interval and its determinants among reproductive age women in developing regions of Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Short Birth Interval negatively affects the health of both mothers and children in developing nations, like, Ethiopia. However, studies conducted to date in Ethiopia upon short birth interval were inconclusive and they did not show the extent and determinants of short birth interval in developing (Afar, Somali, Gambella, and Benishangul-Gumuz) regions of the country. Thus, this study was intended to assess the short birth interval and its determinants in the four developing regions of the country.

METHODS

Data were retrieved from the Demographic and Health Survey program official database website (http://dhsprogram.com). A sample of 2683 women of childbearing age group (15-49) who had at least two alive consecutive children in the four developing regions of Ethiopia was included in this study. A multilevel multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to identify the independent predictors of short birth interval and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) was used during the model selection procedure.

RESULTS

In this study, the prevalence of short birth interval was 46% [95% CI; 43.7%, 47.9%]. The multilevel multivariable logistic regression model showed women living in rural area [AOR = 1.52, CI: 1.12, 2.05], women attended secondary education and above level [AOR = 0.27, CI: 0.05, 0.54], have no media exposure [AOR = 1.35, CI: 1.18, 1.56], female sex of the index child [AOR = 1.13, CI:1.07,1.20], breastfeeding duration [AOR = 0.79, CI: 0.77, 0.82], having six and more ideal number of children [AOR = 1.14, CI: 1.09, 1.20] and having preferred waiting time to birth two years and above [AOR = 0.86, CI: 0.78, 0.95] were the predictors of short birth interval.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of short birth intervals in the developing regions of Ethiopia is still high. Therefore, the government of Ethiopia should work on the access of family planning and education in rural parts of the developing regions where more than 90% of the population in these regions is pastoral.

Proximate and socio-economic determinants of under-five mortality in Benin, 2017/2018

BACKGROUND

Globally, under-five mortality has declined significantly, but still remains a critical public health problem in sub-Saharan African countries such as Benin. Yet, there is no empirical information in the country using a nationally representative data to explain this phenomenon. The aim of this study was to examine how proximate and socio-economic factors are associated with mortality in under-five children in Benin.

METHODS

We analysed data of 5977 under-five children using the 2017 to 2018 Benin Demographic and Health Surveys. Multivariable hierarchical logistic regression modelling technique was applied to investigate the factors associated with under-five mortality. The fit of the models were assessed using variance inflation factor and Pseudo R2. Results were reported as adjusted odds ratios (aORs). All comparisons were considered to be statistically significant at p<0.05.

RESULTS

The study revealed an under-five mortality rate of 96 deaths per 1000 live births in Benin. Regarding the socio-economic determinants, the risk of death was found to be higher in children born in the Plateau region (aOR=3.05; 95% CI: 1.29 to 7.64), in rural areas (aOR=1.45; 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.98) and children with ≥4 birth rank and >2 years of birth interval (aOR=1.52; 95% CI: 1.07 to 2.17). Among the proximate determinants, we found the probability of death to be higher in children whose mothers had no postnatal check-up (PNC) visits after delivery (aOR=1.79; 95% CI: 1.22 to 2.63), but there was no significant association between individual-level/household-level factors and under-five mortality.

CONCLUSION

This study has established that socio-economic and proximate factors are important determinants of under-five mortality in Benin. Our findings have shown the need to implement both socio-economic and proximate interventions, particularly those related to PNC visits when planning on under-five mortality. To achieve this, a comprehensive, long-term public health interventions, which consider the disparity in the access and utilisation of healthcare services in Benin are key.

Association between interpregnancy interval and subsequent stillbirth in 58 low-income and middle-income countries: a retrospective analysis using Demographic and Health Surveys

BACKGROUND

About 3 million stillbirths occur each year, 98% of which are in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Interpregnancy interval is a key risk factor of interest, because it is modifiable. We aimed to investigate whether there is a causal relationship between the length of interpregnancy interval and risk of subsequent stillbirth.

METHODS

We used Demographic and Health Surveys (2002-18) from 58 LMICs to study reproductive histories of women and to identify livebirths and stillbirths in the preceding 5 years. Countries were selected on the basis of the availability of interpregnancy interval data and other covariates of interest (age, education, urban or rural residence, and wealth) in surveys done since 2002. Exclusion criteria were being nulliparous, having missing parity data, and not having had at least two births (livebirth or stillbirth) in the 5 years before the survey. We combined two analytic approaches: one that analyses intervals between all births and another that analyses intervals within mothers. We report stratified estimates for the first, second, and third intervals, controlling for all past birth outcomes and intervals in a 5-year period, and other socioeconomic covariates. We also explored effect heterogeneity across key cohort subgroups.

FINDINGS

Between July, 1997, and April, 2018, we identified 716 478 births from 338 223 women in 123 Demographic and Health Surveys from 58 LMICs, of which 9647 were stillbirths. Intervals of less than 6 months were associated with an increased risk of stillbirth in the between-mother models when considering the first interval (risk difference [RD] 0·0096, 95% CI 0·008-0·011). This association was slightly attenuated when considering only the second interval (RD 0·0054, 95% CI 0·0010 to 0·0099) and substantially attenuated when considering only the third interval (0·0007, -0·037 to 0·039). Within-mother modelling showed a null association with intervals of 24-59 months when considering the first and second (RD 0·007, 95% CI -0·001 to 0·016) and first and third (0·040, -0·422 to 0·501) intervals.

INTERPRETATION

Although interpregnancy intervals of less than 12 months were associated with increased risk of stillbirth, these effects were attenuated when considering second and third intervals, suggesting the association in the first interval might not be causal. Future studies should use generalisable cohorts with longitudinal data, and report estimates stratified by birth order.

FUNDING

Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Interpregnancy interval and risk of perinatal death: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Interpregnancy interval (IPI) <6 months is a potentially modifiable risk factor for adverse perinatal health outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review evaluated the international literature on the risk of perinatal death associated with IPI.

SEARCH STRATEGY

Two independent reviewers screened titles and abstracts identified in MEDLINE, EMBASE and Scopus from inception to 4 April 2019 (Prospero Registration #CRD42018092792).

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies were included if they provided a description of IPI measurement and perinatal death, including stillbirth and neonatal death.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

A narrative review was performed for all included studies. Random effects meta-analysis was used to compare unadjusted odds of perinatal death associated with IPI <6 months and IPI ≥6 months. Analyses were performed by outcome of the preceding pregnancy and study location.

MAIN RESULTS

Of the 624 unique articles identified, 26 met the inclusion criteria. The pooled unadjusted odds ratio of perinatal death for IPI <6 months was 1.34 (95% CI 1.17-1.53) following a previous live birth, 0.85 (95% CI 0.73-0.99) following a previous miscarriage and 1.07 (95% CI 0.84-1.36) following a previous stillbirth compared with IPI ≥6 months. However, few high-income country studies reported an association after adjustment. Fewer studies evaluated the impact of long IPI on perinatal death and what evidence was available showed mixed results.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest a possible association between short IPI and risk of perinatal death following a live birth, particularly in low- to middle-income countries.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Short IPI <6 months after a live birth was associated with greater risk of perinatal death than IPI ≥6 months.

Intentionally or Ambivalently Risking a Short Interpregnancy Interval: Reproductive-Readiness Factors in Women's Postpartum Non-Use of Contraception

A focus of research on short interpregnancy intervals (IPI) has been on young disadvantaged women whose births are likely to be unintended. Later initiation of family formation in the United States and other high-income countries points to the need to also consider a woman's attributes indicative of readiness for purposefully accelerated family formation achieved through short IPIs. We test for whether factors indicating "reproductive readiness"-including being married, being older, and having just had a first birth or a birth later than desired-predict a woman's non-use of contraception in the postpartum months. We also test for whether this contraceptive non-use results explicitly from wanting to become pregnant again. The data come from the 2012-2015 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, representing women who recently gave birth in any of 35 U.S. states and New York City (N = 120,111). We find that these reproductive-readiness factors are highly predictive of women's postpartum non-use of contraception because of a stated desire to become pregnant and are moderately predictive of contraceptive non-use without an explicit pregnancy intention. We conclude that planning for, or ambivalently risking, a short IPI is a frequent family-formation strategy for women whose family formation has been delayed. This is likely to become increasingly common as family formation in the United States is initiated later in the reproductive life course.

Indirect health sector actions and supportive strategies to prevent malnutrition

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Malnutrition is a pervasive problem that causes negative acute, long-term, and intergenerational consequences. As we have begun to move from efficacy to effectiveness trials of nutrition interventions, and further still to more holistic case study approaches to understanding how and why nutrition outcomes change over time, it has become clear that more emphasis on the 'nutrition-sensitive' interventions is required.

RECENT FINDINGS

In this article, we propose recategorizing the nutrition-specific and sensitive terminology into a new framework that includes direct and indirect health sector actions and supportive strategies that exist outside the health sector; an adjustment that will improve sector-specific planning and accountability. We outline indirect health sector nutrition interventions, with a focus on family planning and the evidence to support its positive link with nutrition outcomes. In addition, we discuss supportive strategies for nutrition, with emphasis on agriculture and food security, water, sanitation, and hygiene, and poverty alleviation and highlight some of the recent evidence that has contributed to these fields.

SUMMARY

Indirect health sector nutrition interventions and supportive strategies for nutrition will be critical, alongside direct health sector nutrition interventions, to reach global targets. Investments should be made both inside and outside the health sector.

How soon do single mothers have another child? A competing risk analysis of second premarital childbearing in sub-Saharan African countries

BACKGROUND

A considerable number of previous studies have examined the trends, correlates, and consequences of premarital childbearing among adolescents and young women in Africa. However, very little is known about whether and how soon single mothers have another premarital birth in sub-Saharan African countries. This study examines the timing of a second premarital birth among single mothers and assesses how it may differ across key socio-demographic variables.

METHODS

We pooled recent Demographic and Health Surveys from 25 sub-Saharan African countries to create a database of 57, 219 single mothers aged 15-49 years. Cumulative incidence graphs and Fine and Gray's competing risk models were used to delineate the timing of a second premarital birth and its socio-demographic correlates.

RESULTS

More than one-third of single mothers in 16 countries have had a second premarital birth in their reproductive life. We also observed that more than 15% of the single mothers in Angola, Benin, the Republic of Chad, Liberia, Namibia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Uganda, have had another premarital birth three years after the first. The incidence of a second premarital birth was significantly lower among women with secondary or higher education, compared to women with less than secondary education (p < 0.05) in most countries. Residence in an urban area compared to rural, was also significantly associated with a low incidence of second premarital birth in 10 countries (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings indicate a rapid progression to having a second premarital birth in some sub-Sahara African countries, particularly among socio-economically disadvantaged women. The findings suggest the need for tailored interventions for improving the quality of life of single mothers, to reduce the associated burden and consequences of having a premarital birth.

Interpregnancy intervals and perinatal and child health in Sweden: A comparison within families and across social groups

A large body of research has shown that children born after especially short or long birth intervals experience an elevated risk of poor perinatal outcomes, but recent work suggests this may be explained by confounding by unobserved family characteristics. We use Swedish population data on cohorts born 1981-2010 and sibling fixed effects to examine whether the length of the birth interval preceding the index child influences the risk of preterm birth, low birth weight, and hospitalization during childhood. We also present analyses stratified by salient social characteristics, such as maternal educational level and maternal country of birth. We find few effects of birth intervals on our outcomes, except for very short intervals (less than seven months) and very long intervals (>60 months). We find few differences in the patterns by maternal educational level or maternal country of origin after stratifying by the mother's highest educational attainment.

Does Parents' Union Instability Disrupt Intergenerational Advantage? An Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa

The long arm of childhood, with its wide-ranging influence on individuals' life chances, highlights the importance of understanding the determinants of health in early life. Research has established that parents' education is a major determinant of childhood health, but children across the globe increasingly experience their parents' divorce and subsequent remarriage, raising questions of whether union instability alters these intergenerational processes. Does divorce and remarriage interfere with parents' education benefiting their young children's health? I explore this question in sub-Saharan Africa, a world region where parents' education plays a major role in protecting children against severe health risks, and where young children commonly experience parental divorce and remarriage. Moreover, sub-Saharan Africa features distinct family lineage systems, affording an opportunity to explore this question in both majority matrilineal and patrilineal contexts. Analyses of Demographic and Health Survey data on 271,292 children in 30 sub-Saharan African countries offer no evidence that the high levels of union instability in the region will weaken the health benefits of parents' education for future generations. Following divorce, children benefit from their biological parents' education to the same degree as children with married parents-a finding that is consistent across lineage contexts. Moreover, stepfathers' education corresponds with pronounced health benefits for their coresident stepchildren, particularly in patrilineal regions where these children benefit less dramatically from their mothers' education. Together, the study results offer a renewed sense of the importance of parents'-including stepfathers'-education for early childhood health across diverse family structures.