Mutability of Y-chromosomal microsatellites: rates, characteristics, molecular bases, and forensic implications

RMplex: An efficient method for analyzing 30 Y-STRs with high mutation rates

Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) with high mutation rates are recognized as valuable genetic markers for differentiating paternally related men, who typically cannot be separated with standard Y-STRs, and were shown to provide paternal lineage differentiation on a higher resolution level than standard Y-STRs. Both features make Y-STRs with high mutation rates relevant in criminal casework, particularly in sexual assault cases involving highly unbalanced male-female DNA mixtures that often fail autosomal forensic STR profiling for the male donor. Previously, the number of known Y-STRs with mutation rates higher than 10^-2 per locus per generation termed rapidly mutating Y-STRs (RM Y-STRs) was limited to 13, which has recently been overcome by the discovery and characterization of 12 additional RM Y-STRs. Here, we present the development and validation of RMplex, an efficient genotyping system for analyzing 30 Y-STRs with high mutation rates, including all currently known RM Y-STRs, using multiplex PCR with capillary electrophoresis (CE) or massively parallel sequencing (MPS), overall targeting a total of 44 male-specific loci. If previously unavailable, repeat number assignations were provided based on newly generated MPS data. Validation tests based on the CE method demonstrated that the results were both repeatable and reproducible, full profiles were achieved with minimal input DNA of 250 pg for RMplex 1 and 100 pg for RMplex 2, and in the presence of inhibitors, or with a surplus of female DNA, the assays performed reasonably well. Application of RMplex to differentiate between paternally related men was exemplified in 32 males belonging to five different paternal pedigrees. Given further successful forensic validation testing, we envision the future application of RMplex in criminal cases where it is suspected, or cannot be excluded, that the crime scene trace originated from a male relatives of the suspect who is highlighted with standard Y-STR matching. Other applications of RMplex are in criminal cases without known suspects to differentiate between male relatives highlighted in familial searching based on standard Y-STR matching.

CSYseq: The first Y-chromosome sequencing tool typing a large number of Y-SNPs and Y-STRs to unravel worldwide human population genetics

Male-specific Y-chromosome (chrY) polymorphisms are interesting components of the DNA for population genetics. While single nucleotide polymorphisms (Y-SNPs) indicate distant evolutionary ancestry, short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) are able to identify close familial kinships. Detailed chrY analysis provides thus both biogeographical background information as paternal lineage identification. The rapid advancement of high-throughput massive parallel sequencing (MPS) technology in the past decade has revolutionized genetic research. Using MPS, single-base information of both Y-SNPs as Y-STRs can be analyzed in a single assay typing multiple samples at once. In this study, we present the first extensive chrY-specific targeted resequencing panel, the 'CSYseq', which simultaneously identifies slow mutating Y-SNPs as evolution markers and rapid mutating Y-STRs as patrilineage markers. The panel was validated by paired-end sequencing of 130 males, distributed over 65 deep-rooted pedigrees covering 1,279 generations. The CSYseq successfully targets 15,611 Y-SNPs including 9,014 phylogenetic informative Y-SNPs to identify 1,443 human evolutionary Y-subhaplogroup lineages worldwide. In addition, the CSYseq properly targets 202 Y-STRs, including 81 slow, 68 moderate, 27 fast and 26 rapid mutating Y-STRs to individualize close paternal relatives. The targeted chrY markers cover a high average number of reads (Y-SNP = 717, Y-STR = 150), easy interpretation, powerful discrimination capacity and chrY specificity. The CSYseq is interesting for research on different time scales: to identify evolutionary ancestry, to find distant family and to discriminate closely related males. Therefore, this panel serves as a unique tool valuable for a wide range of genetic-genealogical applications in interdisciplinary research within evolutionary, population, molecular, medical and forensic genetics.

Developmental validation of the Microreader™ RM-Y ID System: a new rapidly mutating Y-STR 17-plex system for forensic application

Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) are widely applied to evolutionary, genealogical, and kinship analyses of male linages in forensic studies, but these low to midrange mutated Y-STRs typically fail to separate related males from the same paternal lineage. Recently, rapidly mutating Y-STRs (RM Y-STRs) have been demonstrated to improve the differentiation of male relatives and individuals. The Microreader™ RM-Y ID System is a new RM Y-STR kit that is capable of simultaneously amplifying 17 RM Y-STRs. Herein, to verify the efficiency and accuracy of the Microreader™ RM-Y ID System, developmental validation was conducted, including PCR-based studies, sensitivity, stability, species specificity, mixture, stutter percentage, and precision studies. Full profiles could be obtained when the hematin concentration was 250 μM, humic acid concentration was 1500 ng/μl, and tannic acid concentration was 200 ng/μl. Full profiles of the mixture of males/males could be detected up to a ratio of 19:1, and full profiles of females/males could always be detected even at ratios up to 24,000:1. Moreover, the forensic characteristics of 250 DNA-confirmed father-son pairs were analysed. The results showed that these 17 RM Y-STRs had high power for forensic discrimination (HD = 1) in the Chinese Han population, and the mutation rates were in the range of 4 × 10^-3 (95% CI 1.00 × 10^-4 to 2.21 × 10^-2, DYS464) to 8.8 × 10^-2 (95% CI 5.60 × 10^-2 to 1.30 × 10^-1, DYF399S1), indicating that the kit was effective for RM Y-STR studies and absolute individualisation of interrelated male individuals.

Genetic insights into the paternal admixture history of Chinese Mongolians via high-resolution customized Y-SNP SNaPshot panels

The Mongolian people, one of the Mongolic-speaking populations, are native to the Mongolian Plateau in North China and southern Siberia. Many ancient DNA studies recently reported extensive population transformations during the Paleolithic to historic periods in this region, while little is known about the paternal genetic legacy of modern geographically different Mongolians. Here, we genotyped 215 Y-chromosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (Y-SNPs) and 37 Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) among 679 Mongolian individuals from Hohhot, Hulunbuir, and Ordos in North China using the AGCU Y37 kit and our developed eight Y-SNP SNaPshot panels (including two panels first reported herein). The C-M130 Y-SNP SNaPshot panel defines 28 subhaplogroups, and the N/O/Q complementary Y-SNP SNaPshot panel defines 30 subhaplogroups of N1b-F2930, N1a1a1a1a3-B197, Q-M242, and O2a2b1a1a1a4a-CTS4658, which improved the resolution our developed Y-SNP SNaPshot panel set and could be applied for dissecting the finer-scale paternal lineages of Mongolic speakers. We found a strong association between Mongolian-prevailing haplogroups and some observed microvariants among the newly generated Y-STR haplotype data, suggesting the possibility of haplogroup prediction based on the distribution of Y-STR haplotypes. We identified three main ancestral sources of the observed Mongolian-dominant haplogroups, including the local lineage of C2*-M217 and incoming lineages from other regions of southern East Asia (O2*-M122, O1b*-P31, and N1*-CTS3750) and western Eurasia (R1*-M173). We also observed DE-M145, D1*-M174, C1*-F3393, G*-M201, I-M170, J*-M304, L-M20, O1a*-M119, and Q*-M242 at relatively low frequencies (< 5.00%), suggesting a complex admixture history between Mongolians and other incoming Eurasians from surrounding regions. Genetic clustering analyses indicated that the studied Mongolians showed close genetic affinities with other Altaic-speaking populations and Sinitic-speaking Hui people. The Y-SNP haplotype/haplogroup-based genetic legacy not only revealed that the stratification among geographically/linguistically/ethnically different Chinese populations was highly consistent with the geographical division and language classification, but also demonstrated that patrilineal genetic materials could provide fine-scale genetic structures among geographically different Mongolian people, suggesting that our developed high-resolution Y-SNP SNaPshot panels have the potential for forensic pedigree searches and biogeographical ancestry inference.

YMrCA: Improving Y-chromosomal ancestor time estimation for DNA kinship research

The Y-chromosome is a valuable kinship indicator in family history and forensic research. To reconstruct genealogies, the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) between paternal relatives can be estimated through Y-STR analysis. Existing models are the stepwise mutation model (SMM, only one-step Y-STR changes) and the infinite allele model (IAM, new allele per Y-STR change). In this study, these mutation models and all existing tMRCA calculators were validated through a genetic-genealogy database containing 1,120 biologically related genealogical pairs confirmed by 46 Y-STRs with known tMRCA (18,109 generations). Consistent under- and overestimation and broad confidence intervals were observed, leading to dubious tMRCA estimates. This is because they do not include individual mutation rates or multi-step changes and ignore hidden multiple, back, or parallel modifications. To improve tMRCA estimation, we developed a user-friendly calculator, the "YMrCA", including all previously mentioned mutation characteristics. After extensive validation, we observed that the YMrCA calculator demonstrated a promising performance. The YMrCA yields a significantly higher tMRCA success rate (96%; +20%) and a lower tMRCA error (7; -3) compared to the mutation models and all online tMRCA calculators. Therefore, YMrCA offers the next step towards more objective tMRCA estimation for DNA kinship research.

A novel multiplex of 12 multicopy Y-STRs for forensic application

Y chromosomal short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) have been applied overwhelmingly in forensic areas for solving paternity identification and sexual assault cases. Yet the widely used Y-STR kits contain mostly single-copy markers, which may restrict the discrimination power. Here, a novel Y-STR multiplex was developed and validated in order to complement the currently available Y-STR kits, especially on differentiating male relatives. The assay includes twelve multicopy Y-STR loci (DYF371, DYF383S1, DYS385, DYF387S1, DYS389I/II, DYF399S1, DYF404S1, DYF409S1, DYF411S1, DYS464, DYS526, DYS527; four of them are rapidly mutating ones), 1 single-copy Y-STR (DYS391), and Amelogenin, and was optimized to amplify at annealing temperature of 59°C and 28 cycles. Validation studies show that full profiles are obtained with 0.125 ng of male DNA. The system is capable of overcoming high concentrations of inhibitors such as hematin, EDTA, and humic acid. Besides, the results demonstrate good sizing precision and the ability to detect male-specific profiles in male/female DNA mixtures at a ratio of 1:800. Excellent species specificity was also observed in microorganisms and non-primates, while detectable peaks were found in some primates. Based on published genetic data, gene diversity values were above 0.7 for most of the loci in our multiplex, inferring a high capacity in discriminating unrelated and related male individuals. The kit is of great potential for forensic application.

Improved Models of Coalescence Ages of Y-DNA Haplogroups

Databases of commercial DNA-testing companies now contain more customers with sequenced DNA than any completed academic study, leading to growing interest from academic and forensic entities. An important result for both these entities and the test takers themselves is how closely two individuals are related in time, as calculated through one or more molecular clocks. For Y-DNA, existing interpretations of these clocks are insufficiently accurate to usefully measure relatedness in historic times. In this article, I update the methods used to calculate coalescence ages (times to most-recent common ancestor, or TMRCAs) using a new, probabilistic statistical model that includes Y-SNP, Y-STR and ancilliary historical data, and provide examples of its use.

The Y-STR landscape of coastal southeastern Han: Forensic characteristics, haplotype analyses, mutation rates, and population genetics

The Y-STR landscape of Coastal Southeastern Han (CSEH) living in Chinese southeast areas (including Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang provinces) is still unclear. We investigated 62 Y-STR markers in a reasonably large number of 1021 unrelated males and 1027 DNA-confirmed father-son pairs to broaden the genetic backgrounds of CSEH. In total, 85 null alleles, 121 off-ladder alleles, and 95 copy number variants were observed, and 1012 distinct haplotypes were determined with the overall HD and DC values of 0.999974 and 0.9912. We observed 369 mutations in 76 099 meiotic transfers, and the average estimated Y-STR mutation rate was 4.85 × 10^-3 (95% CI, 4.4 × 10^-3 -5.4 × 10^-3 ). The Spearman correlation analyses indicated that GD values (R² = 0.6548) and average allele sizes (R² = 0.5989) have positive correlations with Y-STR mutation rates. Our RM Y-STR set including 8 candidate RM Y-STRs, of which DYS534, DYS630, and DYS713 are new candidates in CSEH, distinguished 18.52% of father-son pairs. This study also clarified the population structures of CSEH which isolated in population-mixed South China relatively. The strategy, SM Y-STRs for familial searching and RM Y-STRs for individual identification regionally, could be applicable based on enough knowledge of the Y-STR mutability of different populations.

Y-chromosome variability and genetic history of Commons from Northern Italy

Objectives

Genetic drift and admixture are driving forces in human evolution, but their concerted impact to population evolution in historical times and at a micro‐geographic scale is poorly assessed. In this study we test a demographic model encompassing both admixture and drift to the case of social‐cultural isolates such as the so‐called “Commons.”

Materials and methods

Commons are peculiar institutions of medieval origins whose key feature is the tight relationship between population and territory, mediated by the collective property of shared resources. Here, we analyze the Y‐chromosomal genetic structure of four Commons (for a total of 366 samples) from the Central and Eastern Padana plain in Northern Italy.

Results

Our results reveal that all these groups exhibit patterns of significant diversity reduction, peripheral/outlier position within the Italian/European genetic space and high frequency of Common‐specific haplogroups. By explicitly testing different drift‐admixture models, we show that a drift‐only model is more probable for Central Padana Commons, while additional admixture (~20%) from external population around the same time of their foundation cannot be excluded for the Eastern ones.

Discussion

Building on these results, we suggest central Middle Ages as the most probable age of foundation for three of the considered Commons, the remaining one pointing to late antiquity. We conclude that an admixture‐drift model is particularly useful for interpreting the genetic structure and recent demographic history of small‐scale populations in which social‐cultural features play a significant role.

Next generation sequencing of Y-STRs in father-son pairs and comparison with traditional capillary electrophoresis

To evaluate the promising advantages of massively parallel sequencing (MPS) in our casework, we analysed a total of 33 Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) with traditional capillary electrophoresis (CE) and 25 Y-STRs using the newer MPS technology. We studied the outcome of both technologies in 64 father-son pairs using stock and custom-designed kits. Current MPS technology confirmed the 13 mutational events observed with CE and improved our understanding of the complex nature of STR mutations. By detecting isometric sequence variants between unrelated males, we show that sequencing Y-STRs using MPS can boost discrimination power.

Sequence Read Depth Analysis of a Monophyletic Cluster of Y Chromosomes Characterized by Structural Rearrangements in the AZFc Region Resulting in DYS448 Deletion and DYF387S1 Duplication

The azoospermia factor c region (AZFc), located in the long arm of the human Y chromosome, is frequently involved in chromosome rearrangements, mainly due to non-allelic homologous recombination events that occur between the nearly identical sequences (amplicon) that comprises it. These rearrangements may have major phenotypic effects like spermatogenic failure or other pathologies linked to male infertility. Moreover, they may also be relevant in forensic genetics, since some of the Y chromosome short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) commonly used in forensic analysis are located in amplicons or in inter-amplicon sequences of the AZFc. In a previous study, we identified four phylogenetically related samples with a null allele at DYS448 and a tetrallelic pattern at DYF387S1, two Y-STRs located in the AZFc. Through NGS read depth analysis, we found that the unusual Y-STR pattern may be due to a 1.6 Mb deletion arising concurrently or after a 3.5 Mb duplication event. The observed large genomic rearrangement results in copy number reduction for the RBMY gene family as well as duplication of other AZFc genes. Based on the diversity of 16 additional Y-STRs, we estimated that the duplication/deletion event occurred at least twenty generations ago, suggesting that it has not been affected by negative selection.

Haplotype diversity and phylogenetic relationship analysis of Chinese Yulin Han population using 59 Y-STR loci of two novel Y-STR typing systems

To investigate the genetic polymorphisms of 59 Y-chromosomal short tandem repeat (Y-STR) loci in the Yulin Han population, 229 unrelated healthy male individuals were analyzed using AGCU Y37 kit and AGCU Y-SUPP Plus kit. A total of 227 different haplotypes were obtained at the 59 Y-STR loci. Among them, 225 haplotypes were unique and 2 haplotypes occurred twice. The overall haplotypic diversity and discrimination capacity were 0.9999 and 0.9913, respectively. The phylogenetic relationships between the studied Yulin Han population and 17 previously reported reference populations were evaluated via multidimensional scaling and Neighbor-Joining analyses based on the haplotypic frequencies of 'YHRD Maximal Loci'. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that Yulin Han population was closely related to Chinese Han and Hunan Yao populations. These results demonstrated that the 59 Y-STR loci were useful for forensic applications and population genetic studies.

The Y chromosome of autochthonous Basque populations and the Bronze Age replacement

Here we report on the Y haplogroup and Y-STR diversity of the three autochthonous Basque populations of Alava (n = 54), Guipuzcoa (n = 30) and Vizcaya (n = 61). The same samples genotyped for Y-chromosome SNPs were typed for 17 Y-STR loci (DYS19, DYS385a/b, DYS398I/II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393, DYS437, DYS438, DYS439, DYS448, DYS456, DYS458, DYS635, Y-GATA H4) using the AmpFlSTR Yfiler system. Six major haplogroups (R, I, E, J, G, and DE) were detected, being R-S116 (P312) haplogroup the most abundant at 75.0% in Alava, 86.7% in Guipuzcoa and 87.3% in Vizcaya. Age estimates for the R-S116 mutation in the Basque Country are 3975 ± 303, 3680 ± 345 and 4553 ± 285 years for Alava, Guipuzcoa and Vizcaya, respectively. Pairwise Rst genetic distances demonstrated close Y-chromosome affinities among the three autochthonous Basque populations and between them and the male population of Ireland and Gascony. In a MDS plot, the population of Ireland segregates within the Basque cluster and closest to the population of Guipuzcoa, which plots closer to Ireland than to any of the other Basque populations. Overall, the results support the notion that during the Bronze Age a dispersal of individuals carrying the R-S116 mutation reached the Basque Country replacing the Paleolithic/Neolithic Y chromosome of the region.

Mutation analysis for 25 Y-STR markers in Japanese population

In this study, we analyzed DNA samples from 213 Japanese father son pairs with 25 Y-chromosome short tandem repeat (Y-STR) (DYS576, DYS389I, DYS635, DYS389II, DYS627, DYS460, DYS458, DYS19, YGATAH4, DYS448, DYS391, DYS456, DYS390, DYS438, DYS392, DYS518, DYS570, DYS437, DYS385, DYS449, DYS393, DYS439, DYS481, DYF387S1, and DYS533) markers using the Yfiler™ Plus PCR amplification kit. We calculated Y-STR mutation rates for each locus to evaluate the efficacy of the 25 Y-STR markers for paternity testing and forensic identification using samples from male relatives. Six rapidly mutating Y-STR markers (DYS576, DYS627, DYS518, DYS570, DYS449 and DYF387S1), previously reported to have high mutation rates (>1.0 × 10^-2), are included in the 25 Y-STR markers, but our findings revealed that the mutation rates for all Y-STR markers except for DYS576 and DYS458 were lower than 1.0 × 10^-2. Therefore, the use of these 25 Y-STR markers may be useful for forensic identification in the Japanese population.

Genetic polymorphisms of 44 Y chromosomal genetic markers in the Inner Mongolia Han population and its genetic relationship analysis with other reference populations

Y chromosomal genetic markers in the non-recombining region are commonly used for human evolution research, familial searching, and forensic male differentiation since they strictly follow paternal inheritance. Y chromosomal short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) possess extraordinarily advantages in forensic applications because of their high polymorphisms and special genetic pattern. Here, we assessed the genetic diversities of 41 Y-STRs and three Y chromosomal insertion/deletion (Y-InDels) loci in the Chinese Inner Mongolia Han population; besides, genetic differentiation analyses among the studied Han population and other previously reported populations were conducted based on 27 same Y-STRs. Totally, 425 alleles were observed in 324 Inner Mongolia Han individuals for these Y-markers. Gene diversities of these Y-markers distributed from 0.0306 to 0.9634. The haplotype diversity and discriminatory capacity of these Y-markers in the Inner Mongolia Han population were 0.9999 and 0.98457, respectively. Haplotype resolution comparisons of different Y-marker groups in the studied Han population revealed that higher haplotype resolution could be achieved for these 44 Y-markers. Population genetic analyses of the Inner Mongolia Han population and other reference populations demonstrated that the studied Han population had relatively closer genetic affinities with Northern Han Chinese populations than Southern Han and other minority groups. To sum up, these 44 Y-markers can be utilized as a valuable tool for male differentiation in the Inner Mongolia Han population.

Genetic structure and forensic characterization of 36 Y-chromosomal STR loci in Tibeto-Burman-speaking Yi population

BACKGROUND

Male-specifically inherited Y-STRs have been widely used in population genetics and forensic investigations.

METHODS

We genotyped and analyzed Y chromosome haplotypes of 408 unrelated Tibeto-Burman-speaking Yi male individuals from Guizhou using Goldeneye® Y-PLUS kit. Population comparisons between the Guizhou Yi and 67 reference groups were performed via the AMOVA, MDS, and phylogenetic relationship reconstruction.

RESULTS

A total of 389 alleles and 396 haplotypes could be detected, and the allelic frequencies ranged from 0.0025 to 0.9875. The haplotype diversity, random match probability, and discrimination capacity values were 0.9999, 0.0026, and 0.9900, respectively. The gene diversity (GD) of 36 Y-STR loci in the studied group ranged from 0.0248 (DYS645) to 0.9601 (DYS385a/b). Our newly genotyped Yi samples show a close affinity with other Tibeto-Burman speaking groups in China and Southeast Asia.

CONCLUSIONS

The population stratification was almost consistent with the geographic distribution and language-family, both among Chinese and worldwide ethnic groups. Our data may provide useful information for paternal lineage in the forensic application and population genetics, as well as evidence for archaeological and historical research.

Y chromosome analysis for common surnames in the Japanese male population

For many years of Japan's long history, Japanese surnames have been handed down patrilineally. This study investigated relations between major surnames and Y chromosomal polymorphism among the Japanese male population. To analyze genetic phylogeny in namesakes, the Y-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) plus Y-short tandem repeat (STR) approach was employed. A haplogroup based on SNPs and haplotypes at 17 STR loci were typed in 567 unrelated volunteers recruited in Kanagawa, Japan. Samples covered 27 common surnames such as Satoh and Suzuki, each name having 10-55 bearers. Significant difference was found for SNP haplogroup compositions and a multidimensional scaling plot using STR haplotypes in several surname groups. By contrast, these common surnames displayed wide diversity with phylogenetic networks, suggesting that no genetic drift event has occurred in their history. In all, 22 descent clusters were found, as judgcriteria ed by ad hoc of groups within five mutational steps in the 15 STR loci with the same haplogroup. The times of the most recent common ancestor ranged from 279 to over 2577 years. According to the approximate millennium span of Japanese surname history, descent criteria are expected to be reasonable for grouping within four step-neighbors. High heterogeneity of common surnames resembles that observed for England and Spain, but not for Ireland. Our results highlight that common Japanese surnames consist of descent clusters and many singletons, reflecting a mixture of long-term bearers and short-term bearers among the population. The genetic study of this population revealed characteristic features of Japanese surnames.

Developmental validation of the Microreader™ Y Prime Plus ID System: An advanced Y-STR 38-plex system for forensic applications

Y-STR is widely used in sexual assaults and familial searches of suspects. Here, we reported a novel 38-plex STR genotyping system designed for forensic applications. Microreader™ Y Prime Plus ID System (YPP) amplifies 38 loci in one reaction, including 29 loci from commonly used Yfiler® Plus PCR Amplification Kit & PowerPlex® Y23 System (DYS393, DYS570, DYS19, DYS392, DYS549, Y GATA H4, DYS460, DYS458, DYS481, DYS635, DYS448, DYS533, DYS449, DYS456, DYS389I, DYS390, DYS389Ⅱ, DYS438, DYS391, DYS439, DYS437, DYS385a/b, DYS643, DYS518, DYS576, DYF387S1a/b, and DYS627), 6 commonly used loci for the Y-STR database (DYS444, DYS447, DYS596, DYF404a/b, DYS527a/b, DYS557) and one Y-indel specific for the Chinese population. YPP is designed for different types of samples, such as blood card and swabs. In this work, YPP was validated following SWGDAM guidelines (2016) and guidelines from Ministry of Public Security of the People's Republic of China, including PCR-based, sensitivity, accuracy and precision, mixture, stability and inhibitor, and species specificity. The results indicate that the Microreader™ Y Prime Plus ID System is a powerful identification kit designed for forensic databases.

A comprehensive microsatellite landscape of human Y-DNA at kilobase resolution

Background

Though interest in human simple sequence repeats (SSRs) is increasing, little is known about the exact distributional features of numerous SSRs in human Y-DNA at chromosomal level. Herein, totally 540 maps were established, which could clearly display SSR landscape in every bin of 1 k base pairs (Kbp) along the sequenced part of human reference Y-DNA (NC_000024.10), by our developed differential method for improving the existing method to reveal SSR distributional characteristics in large genomic sequences.

Results

The maps show that SSRs accumulate significantly with forming density peaks in at least 2040 bins of 1 Kbp, which involve different coding, noncoding and intergenic regions of the Y-DNA, and 10 especially high density peaks were reported to associate with biological significances, suggesting that the other hundreds of especially high density peaks might also be biologically significant and worth further analyzing. In contrast, the maps also show that SSRs are extremely sparse in at least 207 bins of 1 Kbp, including many noncoding and intergenic regions of the Y-DNA, which is inconsistent with the widely accepted view that SSRs are mostly rich in these regions, and these sparse distributions are possibly due to powerfully regional selection. Additionally, many regions harbor SSR clusters with same or similar motif in the Y-DNA.

Conclusions

These 540 maps may provide the important information of clearly position-related SSR distributional features along the human reference Y-DNA for better understanding the genome structures of the Y-DNA. This study may contribute to further exploring the biological significance and distribution law of the huge numbers of SSRs in human Y-DNA.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12864-021-07389-5.

Exploitation of a novel slowly mutating Y-STRs set and evaluation of slowly mutating Y-STRs plus Y-SNPs typing strategy in forensic genetics and evolutionary research

The Y-chromosome short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) loci with different mutation rates existing in the Y chromosome non-recombination region (NRY) allow to be applied in human forensics, genealogical researches, historical investigations and evolutionary studies. Currently, there is a high demand for pedigree search to narrow the scope of crime investigations. However, the commonly used Y-STRs kits generally contain Y-STRs with high mutation rates that could cause individuals from the same pedigree to display different haplotypes. Herein, we put forward a new strategy of Slowly Mutating (SM) Y-STRs plus Y-SNPs typing, which could not only improve the resolution and accuracy of pedigree search, but also be applicable to evolutionary research. First, we developed a nine SM Y-STRs assay by evaluating their mutation rates in 210 pedigrees. Then the gene diversity and efficiency of the SM Y-STRs and 172 Y-SNPs sets were investigated by 2304 unrelated males from 24 populations. Furthermore, network and time estimation analyses were performed to evaluate the new strategy's capability to reconstruct phylogenetic tree and reliability to infer the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA). The nine SM Y-STRs assay even had a higher resolution and a comparable capacity of revealing population genetic differentiation compared to 172 Y-SNPs system. This new strategy could optimize the phylogenetic tree generated by commonly used Y-STR panels and obtain a quite consistent time estimations with the published dating.

Searching for the roots of the first free African American community

San Basilio de Palenque is an Afro-descendant community near Cartagena, Colombia, founded in the sixteenth century. The recognition of the historical and cultural importance of Palenque has promoted several studies, namely concerning the African roots of its first inhabitants. To deepen the knowledge of the origin and diversity of the Palenque parental lineages, we analysed a sample of 81 individuals for the entire mtDNA Control Region as well as 92 individuals for 27 Y-STRs and 95 for 51 Y-SNPs. The results confirmed the strong isolation of the Palenque, with some degree of influx of Native American maternal lineages, and a European admixture exclusively mediated by men. Due to the high genetic drift observed, a pairwise F_ST analysis with available data on African populations proved to be inadequate for determining population affinities. In contrast, when a phylogenetic approach was used, it was possible to infer the phylogeographic origin of some lineages in Palenque. Contradicting previous studies indicating a single African origin, our results evidence parental genetic contributions from widely different African regions.

Assessment of the forensic application of 50 Y-STR markers in a large pedigree

Short tandem repeats on the Y chromosome (Y-STRs), characterized by paternal inheritance, are valuable in forensic practice. Notably, the potential application of Y-STRs in pedigrees should be drawn upon, especially in China’s surname-concentrated natural villages. The study focused on 50 Y-STRs, including 13 rapidly mutating (RM) Y-STRs that largely constitute the current Y-STR commercial kits, and determined the differences in these Y-STRs between branches in a large pedigree and the discriminatory power of these haplotypes in different units for male relatives. As indicated in the results, 14 inconsistencies were observed at 9 Y-STRs between 10 father-son pairs. In addition, these 50 Y-STR haplotypes discriminated 10 out of 47 father-son pairs, 106 of 148 cousin pairs, 70 of 119 uncle-nephew pairs, 17 of 39 brother pairs, and 14 out of 33 grandfather-grandson pairs in a large pedigree. The RM Y-STR set is able to differentiate close male relatives in a large pedigree.

Genome (in)stability at tandem repeats

Repeat sequences account for over half of the human genome and represent a significant source of variation that underlies physiological and pathological states. Yet, their study has been hindered due to limitations in short-reads sequencing technology and difficulties in assembly. A important category of repetitive DNA in the human genome is comprised of tandem repeats (TRs), where repetitive units are arranged in a head-to-tail pattern. Compared to other regions of the genome, TRs carry between 10 and 10,000 fold higher mutation rate. There are several mutagenic mechanisms that can give rise to this propensity toward instability, but their precise contribution remains speculative. Given the high degree of homology between these sequences and their arrangement in tandem, once damaged, TRs have an intrinsic propensity to undergo aberrant recombination with non-allelic exchange and generate harmful rearrangements that may undermine the stability of the entire genome. The dynamic mutagenesis at TRs has been found to underlie individual polymorphism associated with neurodegenerative and neuromuscular disorders, as well as complex genetic diseases like cancer and diabetes. Here, we review our current understanding of the surveillance and repair mechanisms operating within these regions, and we describe how alterations in these protective processes can readily trigger mutational signatures found at TRs, ultimately resulting in the pathological correlation between TRs instability and human diseases. Finally, we provide a viewpoint to counter the detrimental effects that TRs pose in light of their selection and conservation, as important drivers of human evolution.

Assessing 23 Y-STR loci mutation rates in Chinese Han father-son pairs from southwestern China

In this study, we have analyzed 23 Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) (DYS576, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS448, DYS19, DYS391, DYS481, DYS549, DYS533, DYS438, DYS437, DYS570, DYS635, DYS390, DYS439, DYS392, DYS643, DYS393, DYS458, DYS460, DYS385ab, DYS456 and Y-GATA-H4) in 175 father-son sample pairs using a Microreader™ 24Y Direct ID system. Sixteen repeat mutations of father-son pairs at 10 loci, including three mutations at DYS570, 2 mutations at DYS549, DYS460, DYS458, and DYS576, and 1 mutation at other five loci, were revealed. Furthermore, all of the observed repeat mutations were single repeat changes with 5 (31.25%) repeat insertions and 11 (68.75%) repeat deletions. The deletion rate is more than two fold higher than of insertions (11:5 = 2.2-fold). Locus-specific mutation rates estimated varied between 5.71 × 10^-3 (CI from 0.1 × 10^-3 to 31.4 × 10^-3) and 1.71 × 10^-2 (CI from 3.6 × 10^-3 to 49.3 × 10^-3) for the 23 Y-STRs. An average mutation rate across all 23 Y-STR markers was estimated as 3.97 × 10^-3 (CI 2.3 × 10^-3 to 6.4 × 10^-3). Thus, locus-specific mutation rates in DYS460, DYS458, and DYS438, estimated are much higher than previously published comprehensive data, but an average mutation rate across all 23 Y-STR markers is similar to previous reports (3.97 × 10^-3 vs 4.34 × 10^-3). These results by characterizing Y-STR mutations will not only provided new information for Y-STR mutations but also might be important for paternal lineage identification, kinship analysis, and family relationship reconstruction in our forensic Y-STR analysis.

Population genetic data of 4 multicopy Y-STR markers in Chinese

Novel Y chromosomal STR (Y-STR) markers have been continuously discovered during the past decades, promoting the widely application of Y-STRs in the area of forensic science. Here, four multicopy Y-STR markers were focused, including DYF383S1, DYF409S1, DYF411S1 and DYF371, which are rarely reported in China and differ in the number of copies on Y chromosome. Characterization of the markers was performed in population of Hunan province, China, based on sequence analysis. Allele nomenclature and allelic ladder were then developed to avoid the disunity of typing standard. To evaluate their forensic performance, gene diversity of the four loci was investigated in 548 unrelated male individuals from Hunan population. The number of haplotype was analyzed by both conservative (C-type) and expanded approach (E-type) for markers containing more than 2 copies. As detected, there were 7, 9, 13 alleles and 15, 22, 23 haplotypes for DYF383S1, DYF409S1 and DYF411S1, respectively. Thirty-two C-types and 56 E-types were found in DYF371, indicating the highest haplotype diversity (HD) among all tested loci (0.871 and 0.888 for C-type and E-type, respectively). Two other Y-STRs (DYF409S1, DYF411S1) also showed high haplotype diversity (>0.8) in the population. Combining the four loci, discrimination capacity reached 0.505 (C-type) or 0.533 (E-type), and the total HD values exceeded 0.991. The results inferred great potential of the multicopy markers to improve the resolution of paternal identification in China population.

Ethnic fragmentation and degree of urbanization strongly affect the discrimination power of Y-STR haplotypes in central Sahel

Y chromosome short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) are commonly used to identify male lineages for investigative and judicial purposes and could represent the only source of male-specific genetic information from unbalanced female-male mixtures. The Yfiler Plus multiplex, which includes twenty conventional and seven rapidly-mutating Y-STRs, represents the most discriminating patrilineal system commercially available to date. Over the past five years, this multiplex has been used to analyze several Eurasian populations, with a reported discrimination capacity (DC) approaching or corresponding to the highest possible value. However, despite the inclusion of rapidly mutating Y-STRs, extensive haplotype sharing was still reported for some African populations due to a number of different factors affecting the effective population size. In the present study, we analyzed 27 Y-STRs included in the Yfiler Plus multiplex and 82 Y-SNPs in central Sahel (northern Cameroon and western Chad), an African region characterized by a strong ethnic fragmentation and linguistic diversity. We evaluated the effects of population sub-structuring on genetic diversity by stratifying a sample composed of 431 males according to their ethnicity (44 different ethnic groups) and urbanization degree (four villages and four towns). Overall, we observed a low discrimination capacity (DC = 0.90), with 71 subjects (16.5 %) sharing 27 Y-STR haplotypes. Haplotype sharing was essentially limited to subjects with the same binary haplogroup, coming from the same location and belonging to the same ethnic group. Haplotype sharing was much higher in rural areas (average DC = 0.83) than urban settlements (average DC = 0.96) with a significant correlation between DC and census size (r = 0.89; p = 0.003). Notably, we found that genetic differentiation between villages from the same country (Φ_ST = 0.14) largely exceeded that found among countries (Φ_ST = 0.02). These findings have important implications for the choice of the appropriate reference population database to evaluate the statistical relevance of forensic Y-haplotype matches.

Mode and Tempo of Microsatellite Evolution across 300 Million Years of Insect Evolution

Microsatellites are short, repetitive DNA sequences that can rapidly expand and contract due to slippage during DNA replication. Despite their impacts on transcription, genome structure, and disease, relatively little is known about the evolutionary dynamics of these short sequences across long evolutionary periods. To address this gap in our knowledge, we performed comparative analyses of 304 available insect genomes. We investigated the impact of sequence assembly methods and assembly quality on the inference of microsatellite content, and we explored the influence of chromosome type and number on the tempo and mode of microsatellite evolution across one of the most speciose clades on the planet. Diploid chromosome number had no impact on the rate of microsatellite evolution or the amount of microsatellite content in genomes. We found that centromere type (holocentric or monocentric) is not associated with a difference in the amount of microsatellite content; however, in those species with monocentric chromosomes, microsatellite content tends to evolve faster than in species with holocentric chromosomes.

Application of Y-chromosomal microdeletions in a homicide case

A case study involving an intentional homicide case in November 2018, in which the autosomal genotypes of the suspect were unavailable and only part of deletions of Y-STR loci were identified by Y-chromosomal typing. The suspect, male, was charged with beating the decedent, female, over the head with an iron water pipe to death. The use of standard autosomal DNA profiling to identify the suspect was unattainable due to the extensive volume blood of the decedent on the murder weapon which was inevitably cleaned by running water at the crime scene. As a result, autosomal genotypes of the suspect were unavailable and only partial samples of deletions of Y-STR loci were identified by Y-chromosomal typing. Y-STR analysis (Yfiler™ plus and AGCU Y36) was used on the collected DNA extracts and compared to reference samples of the suspect, as well as his father and brother in an attempt to positively identify the suspect as the perpetrator of the murder. Subsequent Y-STR genotyping for the suspect, his father and brother indicated that Y-STR genotype of the suspect was consistent with that discovered on the physical evidence and the deleted Y-STR loci were identical for both. No deletions of Y-STR genotype were observed in the suspect's father and brother. After changing a Y-STR kit, the deleted loci were still present in the suspect. In Addition, sequencing of the whole Y-chromosomal genes was performed on the samples taken from the suspect and his father and brother. Segmental deletions at Yq 11.222-Yq 11.23 of the suspect were observed and the deleted Y-STR markers were right on the deleted Y-chromosomal segments. In this case, although the suspect could not be identified by the autosomal STR profiles detected on the physical evidence, the discovery of identical Y-STR genotype and the identical deletions of Y-chromosomal segments made it plausible that DNA on the murder weapon was left behind by the suspect. This case study shows that in criminal cases like this, where the autosomal STR evidence is unattainable, Y-STR evidence can be used effectively as a substitute to identify the suspect.

Genetic structure and forensic characterisation of 36 Y-chromosomal STR loci in Hmong-Mien-speaking Miao population

BACKGROUND

Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) are widely used in paternity identification, pedigree investigation, and human population genetic history.

AIM

To investigate the Y-STR polymorphisms in a typical Miao population, and explore the genetic differentiation between the Miao population and reference groups.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

We detected 36 Y-STRs genotyping in 455 unrelated Miao individuals from Guizhou province, and analysed genetic differentiation between the Miao population and 76 reference groups.

RESULTS

A total of 369 alleles were obtained, and the allele frequencies ranged from 0.0022 to 0.9802. In addition, the haplotype diversity, random match probability, and discrimination capacity values were 0.99997, 0.0022, and 0.9934, respectively. Moreover, the genetic relationships between Guizhou Miao and 76 ethnic populations showed that the population stratification was almost consistent with geographic distribution and language-family.

CONCLUSIONS

The 36 Y-STR loci in this study have good polymorphism distributions in the Guizhou Miao population, and therefore would be a useful tool in forensic identification and male parentage testing and even pedigree investigation.

Mutational data and population profiling of 23 Y-STRs in three Brazilian populations

Y-chromosomal STRs are important markers in forensic genetics, due to some peculiar characteristics. The absence of recombination makes them a useful tool to infer kinship in complex cases involving distant paternal relatives, or to infer paternal bio-geographic ancestry. The presence of a single copy, being transmitted from father to son, allow tracing mutational events in Y-STRs without ambiguity. For the statistical interpretation of forensic evidences based on Y-STR profiles, it is necessary to have estimates on both mutation rates and haplotype frequencies. In this work, 407 father-son duos from São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states and 204 unrelated individuals from Manaus were analyzed. Haplotype frequencies and mutation rates for the Y-STRs from the PowerPlex Y23 commercial kit were estimated. Thirty-six mutations were observed in 15 of the 22 Y-STRs analyzed, for an average mutation rate of 3.84 × 10^-3 (95 % CI 2.69 × 10^-3 to 5.32 × 10^-3). All mutations in GAAA repeats occurred in alleles with 13 or more uninterrupted units. Mutations in GATA repeats were observed in alleles with 9-17 uninterrupted units. An analysis carried out in different father's age groups showed an increase of 2.48 times the mutation rate in the age group of 40-50 years, when compared to the 20-30 age group, in agreement with the described for autosomal STRs. A high haplotype diversity was found in the three Brazilian populations. Pairwise genetic distance analysis (F_ST) showed no significant differences between the three populations in this study, which were also close to populations with strong European influence. The highest distances among the Brazilian populations were with São Gabriel da Cachoeira, which has a high Native American ancestry.

Genetic Reconstruction and Forensic Analysis of Chinese Shandong and Yunnan Han Populations by Co-Analyzing Y Chromosomal STRs and SNPs

Y chromosomal short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) have been widely harnessed for forensic applications, such as pedigree source searching from public security databases and male identification from male–female mixed samples. For various populations, databases composed of Y-STR haplotypes have been built to provide investigating leads for solving difficult or cold cases. Recently, the supplementary application of Y chromosomal haplogroup-determining single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for forensic purposes was under heated debate. This study provides Y-STR haplotypes for 27 markers typed by the Yfiler^™ Plus kit and Y-SNP haplogroups defined by 24 loci within the Y-SNP Pedigree Tagging System for Shandong Han (n = 305) and Yunnan Han (n = 565) populations. The genetic backgrounds of these two populations were explicitly characterized by the analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) and multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) plots based on 27 Y-STRs. Then, population comparisons were conducted by observing Y-SNP allelic frequencies and Y-SNP haplogroups distribution, estimating forensic parameters, and depicting distribution spectrums of Y-STR alleles in sub-haplogroups. The Y-STR variants, including null alleles, intermedia alleles, and copy number variations (CNVs), were co-listed, and a strong correlation between Y-STR allele variants (“DYS518~.2” alleles) and the Y-SNP haplogroup QR-M45 was observed. A network was reconstructed to illustrate the evolutionary pathway and to figure out the ancestral mutation event. Also, a phylogenetic tree on the individual level was constructed to observe the relevance of the Y-STR haplotypes to the Y-SNP haplogroups. This study provides the evidence that basic genetic backgrounds, which were revealed by both Y-STR and Y-SNP loci, would be useful for uncovering detailed population differences and, more importantly, demonstrates the contributing role of Y-SNPs in population differentiation and male pedigree discrimination.

Geographical structuring and low diversity of paternal lineages in Bahrain shown by analysis of 27 Y-STRs

We have determined the distribution of Y-chromosomal haplotypes and predicted haplogroups in the ethnically diverse Kingdom of Bahrain, a small archipelago in the Arabian Gulf. Paternal population structure within Bahrain was investigated using the 27 Y-STRs (short tandem repeats) in the Yfiler Plus kit to generate haplotypes from 562 unrelated Bahraini males, sub-divided into four geographical regions—Northern, Capital, Southern and Muharraq. Yfiler Plus provided a significant improvement over the 17-locus Yfiler kit in discrimination capacity (from 77% to 87.5% overall), but discrimination capacity differed widely between regions from 98.4% in Muharraq to 75.2% in the Northern region, an unusually low value possibly resulting from recent rapid population expansion. Clusters of closely related male lineages were seen, with only 79.4% of donors displaying unique haplotypes and 59% of instances of shared haplotypes occurring within, rather than between, regions. Haplogroup prediction indicated diverse origins of the population with a predominance of haplogroups J2 and J1, both typical of the Arabian Peninsula, but also haplogroups such as B2 and E1b1a likely originating in Africa, and H, L and R2 likely indicative of migration from South Asia. Haplogroup frequencies differed significantly between regions, with J2 significantly more common in the Northern region compared with the Southern, possibly due to differential settlement by Baharna and Arabs. Our study shows that paternal lineage population structure can exist even over small geographical scales, and that highly discriminating genetic tools are required where rapid expansions have occurred within tightly bounded populations.

DNA commission of the International Society of Forensic Genetics (ISFG): Recommendations on the interpretation of Y-STR results in forensic analysis

Forensic genetic laboratories perform a large amount of STR analyses of the Y chromosome, in particular to analyze the male part of complex DNA mixtures. However, the statistical interpretation of evidence retrieved from Y-STR haplotypes is challenging. Due to the uni-parental inheritance mode, Y-STR loci are connected to each other and thus haplotypes show patterns of relationship on the familial and population level. This precludes the treatment of Y-STR loci as independently inherited variables and the application of the product rule. Instead, the dependency structure of Y-STRs needs to be included in the haplotype frequency estimation process affecting also the current paradigm of a random match probability that is in the autosomal case approximated by the population frequency assuming unrelatedness of sampled individuals. Information on the degree of paternal relatedness in the suspect population as well as on the familial network is however needed to interpret Y-chromosomal results in the best possible way. The previous recommendations of the DNA commission of the ISFG on the use of Y-STRs in forensic analysis published more than a decade ago [1] cover the interpretation issue only marginally. The current recommendations address a number of topics (frequency estimators, databases, metapopulations, LR formulation, triage, rapidly mutating Y-STRs) with relevance for the Y-STR statistics and recommend a decision-based procedure, which takes into account legal requirements as well as availability of population data and statistical methods.

Characterizing Y-STRs in the Evaluation of Population Differentiation Using the Mean of Allele Frequency Difference between Populations

Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) are widely used in human research for the evaluation of population substructure or population differentiation. Previous studies show that several haplotype sets can be used for the evaluation of population differentiation. However, little is known about whether each Y-STR in these sets performs well during this procedure. In this study, a total of 20,927 haplotypes of a Yfiler Plus set were collected from 41 global populations. Different configurations were observed in multidimensional scaling (MDS) plots based on pairwise genetic distances evaluated using a Yfiler set and a Yfiler Plus set, respectively. Subsequently, 23 single-copy Y-STRs were characterized in the evaluation of population differentiation using the mean of allele frequency difference (mAFD) between populations. Our results indicated that DYS392 had the largest mAFD value (0.3802) and YGATAH4 had the smallest value (0.1845). On the whole, larger pairwise genetic distances could be obtained using the set with the top fifteen markers from these 23 single-copy Y-STRs, and clear clustering or separation of populations could be observed in the MDS plot in comparison with those using the set with the minimum fifteen markers. In conclusion, the mAFD value is reliable to characterize Y-STRs for efficiency in the evaluation of population differentiation.

Genome-based development of 15 microsatellite markers in fluorescent multiplexes for parentage testing in captive tigers

As one of the most endangered species, tiger (Panthera tigris) inbreeding has become an urgent issue to address. Using a microsatellite (short tandem repeat, STR) identification system, paternity testing may be helpful to avoid inbreeding in captive breeding programs. In this study, we developed a genome-based identification system named tiger pedigree identification multiplex system (TPI-plex). By analyzing the entire tiger genome, 139,967 STR loci were identified and 12.76% of these displayed three to six alleles among three re-sequenced individual tiger genomes. A total of 204 candidate STRs were identified and screened with a reference population containing 31 unrelated captive tigers. Of these, 15 loci were chosen for inclusion in the multiplex panel. The mean allele number and mean expected heterozygosity (He) were 7.3333 and 0.7789, respectively. The cumulative probability of exclusion (CPE) and total probability of discrimination power (TDP) reached 0.999999472 and 0.999999999999995, respectively. The results showed that the TPI-plex system can be applied in routine pedigree identification for captive tigers. We also added a sex identification marker named TAMEL into the TPI-plex for sex determination.

Analyzing genetic polymorphism and mutation of 44 Y-STRs in a Chinese Han population of Southern China

Short tandem repeat on the non-recombining part of chromosome Y with paternally inheritable capability is a valuable tool in the studies of forensic genetics, population genetics and anthropology. The mutation rate of Y-STR is an important parameter in the applications. A total of 629 haplotypes at 44 Y-STR markers were found in 629 unrelated males of our population. Mutation rates at 44 Y-STR loci ranged from 0 (CI: 0-5.70 × 10^-3) to 40.63 × 10^-3 (25.90 × 10^-3-57.2 × 10^-3) in our population. A higher mutation rate was noted at DYS612, DYS449, DYS547, DYS518, DYS576, DYS627, DYF403S1b, DYF387S1, DYS385a/b, DYS527a/b, DYF404S1, DYF403S1a and DYF399S1 in this population. The Y-STR set showed a higher discrimination capacity in forensic applications, and the present study provided reference data for the application of forensic and population genetics.

Ysurnames? The patrilineal Y-chromosome and surname correlation for DNA kinship research

The Y-chromosome is a widely studied and useful small part of the genome providing different applications for interdisciplinary research. In many (Western) societies, the Y-chromosome and surnames are paternally co-inherited, suggesting a corresponding Y-haplotype for every namesake. While it has already been observed that this correlation may be disrupted by a false-paternity event, adoption, anonymous sperm donor or the co-founding of surnames, extensive information on the strength of the surname match frequency (SMF) with the Y-chromosome remains rather unknown. For the first time in Belgium and the Netherlands, we were able to study this correlation using 2,401 males genotyped for 46 Y-STRs and 183 Y-SNPs. The SMF was observed to be dependent on the number of Y-STRs analyzed, their mutation rates and the number of Y-STR differences allowed for a kinship. For a perfect match, the Yfiler® Plus and our in-house YForGen kit gave a similar high SMF of 98%, but for non-perfect matches, the latter could overall be identified as the best kit. The SMF generally increased due to less mismatches when encountering [1] deep Y-subhaplogroups, [2] less frequently occurring surnames, and [3] small geographical distances between relatives. This novel information enabled the design of a surname prediction model based on genetic and geographical distances of a kinship. The prediction model has an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.9 and is therefore useable for DNA kinship priority listing in estimation applications like forensic familial searching.