A multibiomarker risk score helps predict risk for Barrett's esophagus

A Model for Predicting the Future Risk of Incident Erosive Esophagitis in an Asymptomatic Population Undergoing Regular Check-ups

Erosive esophagitis is a major risk factor for Barrett esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma. Information regarding the putative risk factors for developing erosive esophagitis is considerably heterogeneous; thus, a risk model is required to clinically predict the incidence of erosive esophagitis. This study was to derive and validate a predictive model for the incidence of developing erosive esophagitis after negative index endoscopy in a population subjected to routine health check-ups. This retrospective cohort study of health check-ups included 11,535 patients who underwent repeated screening endoscopy after >3 years from a negative index endoscopy. We used logistic regression analysis to predict the incidence of erosive esophagitis, and a Simple Prediction of Erosive Esophagitis Development score for risk assessment was developed and internally validated using the split-sample approach. The development and validation cohorts included 5765 patients (675 with erosive esophagitis [11.7%]) and 5770 patients (670 with erosive esophagitis [11.6%]), respectively. The final model included sex, smoking behavior, body mass index, hypertension, and the triglyceride level as variables. This model predicted 667 cases of erosive esophagitis, yielding an expected-to-observed ratio of 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-1.07). A simplified 5-item risk scoring system based on coefficients was developed, with a risk of erosive esophagitis of 6.2% (95% CI, 5.2-7.1) for the low-risk group (score ≤2), 15.1% (95% CI, 13.5-16.6) for the intermediate-risk group (score ≤3, 4), and 18.2% (95% CI, 15.2-21.3) for the high-risk group (score ≥5). The discriminative performance of the risk-prediction score was consistent in the derivation cohort and validation cohort (c-statistics 0.68 and 0.64, respectively); the calibration was good (Brier score 0.099 and 0.1, respectively). In conclusion, a simple risk-scoring model using putative risk factors can predict the future incidence of developing erosive esophagitis in asymptomatic populations.

Recent developments in pathogenesis, diagnosis and therapy of Barrett's esophagus

The burden of illness from esophageal adenocarcinoma continues to rise in the Western world, and overall prognosis is poor. Given that Barrett’s esophagus (BE), a metaplastic change in the esophageal lining is a known cancer precursor, an opportunity to decrease disease development by screening and surveillance might exist. This review examines recent updates in the pathogenesis of BE and comprehensively discusses known risk factors. Diagnostic definitions and challenges are outlined, coupled with an in-depth review of management. Current challenges and potential solutions related to screening and surveillance are discussed. The effectiveness of currently available endoscopic treatment techniques, particularly with regards to recurrence following successful endotherapy and potential chemopreventative agents are also highlighted. The field of BE is rapidly evolving and improved understanding of pathophysiology, combined with emerging methods for screening and surveillance offer hope for future disease burden reduction.

Screening for Barrett's Esophagus

There is substantial interest in identifying patients with premalignant conditions such as Barrett's esophagus (BE), to improve outcomes of subjects with esophageal adenocarcinoma. However, there is limited consensus on the rationale for screening, the appropriate target population, and optimal screening modality. Recent progress in the development and validation of minimally invasive tools for BE screening has reinvigorated interest in BE screening. BE risk scores combining clinical, anthropometric, and laboratory variables are being developed that may allow more precise targeting of screening to high-risk individuals. This article reviews and summarizes data on recent progress and challenges in screening for BE.

Biomarkers in Barrett's Esophagus: Role in Diagnosis, Risk Stratification, and Prediction of Response to Therapy

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has increased dramatically in the past 3 decades, making its precursor lesion Barrett's esophagus (BE) an important clinical problem. Effective interventions are available, but overall outcomes remain unchanged. Most of the BE population remains undiagnosed; most EACs are diagnosed late, and most BE patients will never progress to cancer. These epidemiologic factors make upper endoscopy an inefficient and ineffective strategy for BE diagnosis and risk stratification. In the current review, biomarkers for diagnosis, risk stratification, and predictors of response to therapy in BE are discussed.

Screening for Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma: rationale, recent progress, challenges, and future directions

As the incidence and mortality of esophageal adenocarcinoma continue to increase, strategies to counter this need to be explored. Screening for Barrett's esophagus, which is the known precursor of a large majority of adenocarcinomas, has been debated without a firm consensus. Given evidence for and against perceived benefits of screening, the multitude of challenges in the implementation of such a strategy and in the downstream management of subjects with Barrett's esophagus who could be diagnosed by screening, support for screening has been modest. Recent advances in the form of development and initial accuracy of noninvasive tools for screening, risk assessment tools, and biomarker panels to risk stratify subjects with BE, have spurred renewed interest in the early detection of Barrett's esophagus and related neoplasia, particularly with the advent of effective endoscopic therapy. In this review, we explore in depth the potential rationale for screening for Barrett's esophagus, recent advances that have the potential of making screening feasible, and also highlight some of the challenges that will have to be overcome to develop an effective approach to improve the outcomes of subjects with esophageal adenocarcinoma.

The epidemiology, diagnosis, and treatment of Barrett's carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Roughly 3000 new cases of Barrett's carcinoma arise in Germany each year. In view of recent advances in the epidemiology, diagnosis, and treatment of this disease, an update of the clinical recommendations is in order.

METHODS

This review is based on selected relevant publications, including current reviews, meta-analyses, and guidelines.

RESULTS

The risk of progression of Barrett's esophagus to carcinoma lies between 0.10% and 0.15% per year. Risk factors for progression include male sex, age over 50 years, obesity, longstanding and frequent reflux symptoms, smoking, length of the Barrett's esophagus, and intraepithelial neoplasia. Well-differentiated carcinomas that are confined to the esophageal mucosa can be resected endoscopically with a cure rate above 90%. For more advanced, but still locally confined tumors, surgical resection is the treatment of choice. In stages cT3/4, the prognosis can be improved with neo-adjuvant chemo - therapy or combined radiotherapy and chemotherapy. Metastatic Barrett's carcinoma can be treated by endoscopic, chemotherapeutic, radiotherapeutic, and palliative methods.

CONCLUSION

Early carcinoma can often be cured by endoscopic resection. Locally advanced carcinoma calls for multimodal treatment. Current research focuses on means of preventing the progression of Barrett's esophagus, the scope of applicability of endoscopic techniques, and the optimization of multimodal treatment strategies for advanced disease.

A review of the epidemiology of Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinoma

While the incidence rates of many cancers have decreased in past decades, the incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma continues to increase. The only known precursor for oesophageal adenocarcinoma is Barrett's oesophagus. Studies conducted have identified white race, male sex, GORD, cigarette smoking, obesity, and the absence of Helicobacter pylori status as risk factors for oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Other potential associations include dietary factors and the absence of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use. Many individual studies have been limited by sample size and several meta-analyses have pooled data from studies to address this limitation. In this review we present a synthesis of these studies and summarize current knowledge of risk factors for both oesophageal adenocarcinoma and Barrett's oesophagus.

A randomized comparative effectiveness trial of novel endoscopic techniques and approaches for Barrett's esophagus screening in the community

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to compare participation rates and clinical effectiveness of sedated esophagogastroduodenoscopy (sEGD) and unsedated transnasal endoscopy (uTNE) for esophageal assessment and Barrett's esophagus (BE) screening in a population-based cohort.

METHODS

This was a prospective, randomized, controlled trial in a community population. Subjects ≥50 years of age who previously completed validated gastrointestinal symptom questionnaires were randomized (stratified by age, sex, and reflux symptoms) to one of three screening techniques (either sEGD or uTNE in a mobile research van (muTNE) or uTNE in a hospital outpatient endoscopy suite (huTNE)) and invited to participate.

RESULTS

Of the 459 subjects, 209 (46%) agreed to participate (muTNE n=76, huTNE n=72, and sEGD n=61). Participation rates were numerically higher in the unsedated arms of muTNE (47.5%) and huTNE (45.7%) compared with the sEGD arm (40.7%), but were not statistically different (P=0.27). Complete evaluation of the esophagus was similar using muTNE (99%), huTNE (96%), and sEGD (100%) techniques (P=0.08). Mean recovery times (min) were longer for sEGD (67.3) compared with muTNE (15.5) and huTNE (18.5) (P<0.001). Approximately 80% of uTNE subjects were willing to undergo the procedure again in future. Respectively, 29% and 7.8% of participating subjects had esophagitis and BE.

CONCLUSIONS

Mobile van and clinic uTNE screening had comparable clinical effectiveness with similar participation rates and safety profile to sEGD. Evaluation time with uTNE was significantly shorter. Prevalence of BE and esophagitis in community subjects ≥50 years of age was substantial. Mobile and outpatient unsedated techniques may provide an effective alternative strategy to sEGD for esophageal assessment and BE screening.

Molecular markers and imaging tools to identify malignant potential in Barrett's esophagus

Due to its rapidly rising incidence and high mortality, esophageal adenocarcinoma is a major public health concern, particularly in Western countries. The steps involved in the progression from its predisposing condition, gastroesophageal reflux disease, to its premalignant disorder, Barrett’s esophagus, and to cancer, are incompletely understood. Current screening and surveillance methods are limited by the lack of population-wide utility, incomplete sampling of standard biopsies, and subjectivity of evaluation. Advances in endoscopic ablation have raised the hope of effective therapy for eradication of high-risk Barrett’s lesions, but improvements are needed in determining when to apply this treatment and how to follow patients clinically. Researchers have evaluated numerous potential molecular biomarkers with the goal of detecting dysplasia, with varying degrees of success. The combination of biomarker panels with epidemiologic risk factors to yield clinical risk scoring systems is promising. New approaches to sample tissue may also be combined with these biomarkers for less invasive screening and surveillance. The development of novel endoscopic imaging tools in recent years has the potential to markedly improve detection of small foci of dysplasia in vivo. Current and future efforts will aim to determine the combination of markers and imaging modalities that will most effectively improve the rate of early detection of high-risk lesions in Barrett’s esophagus.

Alcohol and the risk of Barrett's esophagus: a pooled analysis from the International BEACON Consortium

OBJECTIVES

Results from studies examining the association between alcohol consumption and the risk of Barrett's esophagus have been inconsistent. We assessed the risk of Barrett's esophagus associated with total and beverage-specific alcohol consumption by pooling individual participant data from five case-control studies participating in the international Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium.

METHODS

For analysis, there were 1,282 population-based controls, 1,418 controls with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), and 1,169 patients with Barrett's esophagus (cases). We estimated study-specific odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) using multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), education, smoking status, and GERD symptoms. Summary risk estimates were obtained by random-effects models. We also examined potential effect modification by sex, BMI, GERD symptoms, and cigarette smoking.

RESULTS

For comparisons with population-based controls, although there was a borderline statistically significant inverse association between any alcohol consumption and the risk of Barrett's esophagus (any vs. none, summary OR=0.77, 95% CI=0.60-1.00), risk did not decrease in a dose-response manner (Ptrend=0.72). Among alcohol types, wine was associated with a moderately reduced risk of Barrett's esophagus (any vs. none, OR=0.71, 95% CI=0.52-0.98); however, there was no consistent dose-response relationship (Ptrend=0.21). We found no association with alcohol consumption when cases were compared with GERD controls. Similar associations were observed across all strata of BMI, GERD symptoms, and cigarette smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent with findings for esophageal adenocarcinoma, we found no evidence that alcohol consumption increases the risk of Barrett's esophagus.

Gastro-esophageal reflux disease symptoms and demographic factors as a pre-screening tool for Barrett's esophagus

Background

Barrett’s esophagus (BE) occurs as consequence of reflux and is a risk factor for esophageal adenocarcinoma. The current “gold-standard” for diagnosing BE is endoscopy which remains prohibitively expensive and impractical as a population screening tool. We aimed to develop a pre-screening tool to aid decision making for diagnostic referrals.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A prospective (training) cohort of 1603 patients attending for endoscopy was used for identification of risk factors to develop a risk prediction model. Factors associated with BE in the univariate analysis were selected to develop prediction models that were validated in an independent, external cohort of 477 non-BE patients referred for endoscopy with symptoms of reflux or dyspepsia. Two prediction models were developed separately for columnar lined epithelium (CLE) of any length and using a stricter definition of intestinal metaplasia (IM) with segments ≥2 cm with areas under the ROC curves (AUC) of 0.72 (95%CI: 0.67–0.77) and 0.81 (95%CI: 0.76–0.86), respectively. The two prediction models included demographics (age, sex), symptoms (heartburn, acid reflux, chest pain, abdominal pain) and medication for “stomach” symptoms. These two models were validated in the independent cohort with AUCs of 0.61 (95%CI: 0.54–0.68) and 0.64 (95%CI: 0.52–0.77) for CLE and IM≥2 cm, respectively.

Conclusions

We have identified and validated two prediction models for CLE and IM≥2 cm. Both models have fair prediction accuracies and can select out around 20% of individuals unlikely to benefit from investigation for Barrett’s esophagus. Such prediction models have the potential to generate useful cost-savings for BE screening among the symptomatic population.