Low Colorectal Cancer Risk After Resection of High-Risk Pedunculated Polyps

BACKGROUND

Post-fecal immunochemical test (FIT) colonoscopy represents a setting with an enriched prevalence of advanced adenomas. Due to an expected higher risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), postpolypectomy surveillance is recommended, generating a substantially increased load on endoscopy services. The aim of our study was to investigate postpolypectomy CRC risk in a screening population of FIT+ subjects after resection of low-risk adenomas (LRAs) or high-risk adenomas (HRAs).

METHODS

We retrieved data from a cohort of patients undergoing postpolypectomy surveillance within a FIT-based CRC screening program in Italy between 2002 and 2017 and followed-up to December 2021. Main outcomes were postpolypectomy CRC incidence and mortality risks according to type of adenoma (LRA/HRA) removed at colonoscopy as well as morphology, size, dysplasia, and location of the index lesion. We adopted as comparators FIT+/colonoscopy-negative and FIT- patients. The absolute risk was calculated as the number of incident CRCs per 100,000 person-years of follow-up. We used Cox multivariable regression models to identify associations between CRC risks and patient- and polyp-related variables.

RESULTS

Overall, we included 87,248 post-FIT+ colonoscopies (133 endoscopists). Of these, 42,899 (49.2%) were negative, 21,650 (24.8%) had an LRA, and 22,709 (26.0%) an HRA. After a median follow-up of 7.25 years, a total of 635 CRCs were observed. For patients with LRAs, CRC incidence (hazard ratio [HR], 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-1.53) was not increased compared with the FIT+/colonoscopy-negative group, while for HRAs a significant increase in CRC incidence (HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.14-2.04) was found. The presence of 1 or more risk factors among proximal location, nonpedunculated morphology, and high-grade dysplasia explained most of this excess CRC risk in the HRA group (HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.36-2.52). Patients with only distal pedunculated polyps without high-grade dysplasia, representing 39.2% of HRA, did not have increased risk compared with the FIT- group (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.59-1.28).

CONCLUSIONS

CRC incidence is significantly higher in patients with HRAs diagnosed at colonoscopy. However, such excess risk does not appear to apply to patients with only distal pedunculated polyps without high-grade dysplasia, an observation that could potentially reduce the burden of surveillance in FIT programs.

Prognostic Value of Brachial-Ankle Pulse Wave Velocity According to Subjects' Clinical Characteristics: Data From Analysis of 10,597 Subjects

BACKGROUND

To make good use of the prognostic value of arterial stiffness, it is important to identify the population with the greatest benefit. In this study, we compared the prognostic value of brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) according to various clinical characteristics.

METHODS

A total of 10,597 subjects who underwent baPWV measurement (mean age, 61.4 ± 9.5 years; female proportion, 42.5%) were retrospectively analyzed. Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), defined as a composite of cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, and ischemic stroke were assessed during the clinical follow-up period.

RESULTS

In the multivariate analysis, clinical variables with more than 4,000 subjects were selected as grouping variables, which were sex (men and women), age (≥ 65 and < 65 years), body mass index (BMI) (≥ 25 and < 25 kg/m²), hypertension (presence and absence), estimated glomerular filtration rate (≥ 90 and < 90 mL/min/1.73 m²), and statin use (user and non-user). During the median clinical follow-up duration of 3.58 years (interquartile range, 1.43-5.38 years), there were 422 MACEs (4.0%). In total study subjects, baseline higher baPWV was associated with increased risk of MACE occurrence (hazard ratio for baPWV ≥ 1,800 cm/s compared to baPWV < 1,400 cm/s, 4.04; 95% confidence interval, 2.62-6.21; P < 0.001). The prognostic value of baPWV was statistically significant regardless of sex, age, BMI, hypertension, renal function, and statin use.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that baPWV is not only effective in specific clinical situations, but can be effectively applied to predict cardiovascular prognosis in various clinical situations.

Role of fatty liver index in risk-stratifying comorbid disease outcomes in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Background & Aims

Population screening for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and associated comorbidities remains an unaddressed clinical need. We aimed to assess the utility of the fatty liver index (FLI) for risk stratification of NAFLD and related comorbidities using the UK Biobank.

Methods

Electronic health records and liver MRI-proton density fat fraction (PDFF) were used to define NAFLD cases. FLI was calculated and individuals with high alcohol intake and other liver diseases were excluded. Using listwise deletion analysis, the area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of FLI for NAFLD risk was determined. Thereafter, time-dependent covariate-adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate FLI's risk stratification potential for comorbidities of interest.

Results

FLI was derived for 327,800 individuals with a median age of 58 (IQR 51.5-64.5), of whom 59.8% were females. Using Perspectum Diagnostics and AMRA protocols as references, FLI identified the risk of NAFLD with AUROCs (95% CI, n) of 0.858 (0.848-0.867, n = 7,566) and 0.851 (0.844-0.856, n = 10,777), respectively. Intermediate and high-risk FLI was associated with increased cardiometabolic and malignant disease. In the first 3 years, high-risk FLI conferred an increased risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 95% CI) of ischaemic heart disease (2.14, 1.94-2.36), hypertension (2.84, 2.70-2.98), type 2 diabetes mellitus (4.55, 4.04-5.12), dyslipidaemia (2.48, 2.32-2.64), ischaemic stroke (1.31, 1.20-1.42) and hepatic malignancy (1.69, 1.23-2.30). FLI was not associated with risk of extrahepatic malignancy but was associated with a higher risk of specific cancers (colon, upper gastrointestinal and breast). All-cause mortality was similarly stratified by FLI, independently of non-invasive fibrosis scores.

Conclusions

FLI identifies NAFLD and holds potential for the risk stratification of cardiometabolic and malignant disease outcomes (including some extrahepatic malignancies), as well as all-cause mortality. Its use in population screening for primary and secondary prevention of NAFLD should be considered.

Impact and implications

Our analysis using the UK Biobank study shows the potential of the fatty liver index as a risk stratification tool for identifying the risk of developing NAFLD, ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, hepatic malignancy, specific metabolism-related malignancies and all-cause mortality. These results suggest that the fatty liver index should be considered as a non-invasive steatosis score that may help guide primary prevention strategies for NAFLD and related outcomes.

AGA Clinical Practice Update on the Role of Noninvasive Biomarkers in the Evaluation and Management of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: Expert Review

DESCRIPTION

The purpose of this American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) Clinical Practice Update Expert Review is to provide clinicians with guidance on the use of noninvasive tests (NITs) in the evaluation and management of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). NAFLD affects nearly 30% of the global population and is a growing cause of end-stage liver disease and liver-related health care resource utilization. However, only a minority of all patients with NAFLD experience a liver-related outcome. It is therefore critically important for clinicians to assess prognosis and identify those with increased risk of disease progression and negative clinical outcomes at the time of initial assessment. It is equally important to assess disease trajectory over time, particularly in response to currently available therapeutic approaches. The reference standard for assessment of prognosis and disease monitoring is histologic examination of liver biopsy specimens. There are, however, many limitations of liver biopsies and their reading that have limited their use in routine practice. The utilization of NITs facilitates risk stratification of patients and longitudinal assessment of disease progression for patients with NAFLD. This clinical update provides best practice advice based on a review of the literature on the utilization of NITs in the management of NAFLD for clinicians. Accordingly, a combination of available evidence and consensus-based expert opinion, without formal rating of the strength and quality of the evidence, was used to develop these best practice advice statements.

METHODS

This Expert Review was commissioned and approved by the AGA Institute Clinical Practice Updates Committee and the AGA Governing Board to provide timely guidance on a topic of high clinical importance to the AGA membership and underwent internal peer review by the Clinical Practice Updates Committee and external peer review through standard procedures of Gastroenterology. These best practice advice statements were drawn from a review of the published literature and from expert opinion. Because systematic reviews were not performed, these best practice advice statements do not carry formal ratings of the quality of evidence or strength of the presented considerations. Best Practice Advice Statements BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 1: NITs can be used for risk stratification in the diagnostic evaluation of patients with NAFLD. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 2: A Fibrosis 4 Index score <1.3 is associated with strong negative predictive value for advanced hepatic fibrosis and may be useful for exclusion of advanced hepatic fibrosis in patients with NAFLD. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 3: A combination of 2 or more NITs combining serum biomarkers and/or imaging-based biomarkers is preferred for staging and risk stratification of patients with NAFLD whose Fibrosis 4 Index score is >1.3. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 4: Use of NITs in accordance with manufacturer's specifications (eg, not in patients with ascites or pacemakers) can minimize risk of discordant results and adverse events. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 5: NITs should be interpreted with context and consideration of pertinent clinical data (eg, physical examination, biochemical, radiographic, and endoscopic) to optimize positive predictive value in the identification of patients with advanced fibrosis. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 6: Liver biopsy should be considered for patients with NIT results that are indeterminate or discordant; conflict with other clinical, laboratory, or radiologic findings; or when alternative etiologies for liver disease are suspected. BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 7: Serial longitudinal monitoring using NITs for assessment of disease progression or regression may inform clinical management (ie, response to lifestyle modification or therapeutic intervention). BEST PRACTICE ADVICE 8: Patients with NAFLD and NITs results suggestive of advanced fibrosis (F3) or cirrhosis (F4) should be considered for surveillance of liver complications (eg, hepatocellular carcinoma screening and variceal screening per Baveno criteria). Patients with NAFLD and NITs suggestive of advanced hepatic fibrosis (F3) or (F4), should be monitored with serial liver stiffness measurement; vibration controlled transient elastography; or magnetic resonance elastography, given its correlation with clinically significant portal hypertension and clinical decompensation.

Salivary Extracellular MicroRNAs for Early Detection and Prognostication of Esophageal Cancer: A Clinical Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Early detection of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) will facilitate curative treatment. We aimed to establish a microRNA (miRNA) signature derived from salivary extracellular vesicles and particles (EVPs) for early ESCC detection and prognostication.

METHODS

Salivary EVP miRNA expression was profiled in a pilot cohort (n = 54) using microarray. Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) and least absolute shrinkage and selector operation regression analyses were used to prioritize miRNAs that discriminated patients with ESCC from controls. Using quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, the candidates were measured in a discovery cohort (n = 72) and cell lines. The prediction models for the biomarkers were derived from a training cohort (n = 342) and validated in an internal cohort (n = 207) and an external cohort (n = 226).

RESULTS

The microarray analysis identified 7 miRNAs for distinguishing patients with ESCC from control subjects. Because 1 was not always detectable in the discovery cohort and cell lines, the other 6 miRNAs formed a panel. A signature of this panel accurately identified patients with all-stage ESCC in the training cohort (AUROC = 0.968) and was successfully validated in 2 independent cohorts. Importantly, this signature could distinguish patients with early-stage (stage Ⅰ/Ⅱ) ESCC from control subjects in the training cohort (AUROC = 0.969, sensitivity = 92.00%, specificity = 89.17%) and internal (sensitivity = 90.32%, specificity = 91.04%) and external (sensitivity = 91.07%, specificity = 88.06%) validation cohorts. Moreover, a prognostic signature based on the panel was established and efficiently predicted the high-risk cases with poor progression-free survival and overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The salivary EVP-based 6-miRNA signature can serve as noninvasive biomarkers for early detection and risk stratification of ESCC. Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR2000031507.

Risk Stratification for Sarcopenic Obesity in Subjects With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The impact of the severity of sarcopenic obesity (SO) in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on the risk of significant liver fibrosis or cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains unclear. We aimed to identify high-risk subjects with SO for significant liver fibrosis or CVD among subjects with SO and NAFLD.

METHODS

This multicenter, retrospective study involved 23,889 subjects with NAFLD who underwent a health screening program (2014-2020). Sarcopenia was defined based on gender-specific sarcopenia index cutoff using multi-frequency bioelectric impedance analysis. High-risk subjects with SO were defined as those with significant liver fibrosis by fibrosis-4 index >2.67 or atherosclerotic CVD risk score >20%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis for identifying high-risk subjects with SO was performed in a cross-sectional cohort with SO, and further validation was performed in a longitudinal cohort.

RESULTS

SO prevalence was 5.4% (n = 1297 of 23,889). Older age (unstandardized beta [β] = 3.23; P < .001), male (β = 1.66; P = .027), sarcopenia index (β = -6.25; P = .019), and metabolic syndrome (β = 1.75; P < .001) were significant risk factors for high-risk SO. Based on a high-risk SO screening model, high-risk subjects with SO had significantly higher odds of significant liver fibrosis (training: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.72; validation: aOR, 2.38) or CVD (training: aOR, 5.20; validation: aOR, 3.71) than subjects without SO (all P < .001). In subgroup analyses, the cumulative incidence of significant liver fibrosis or CVD development was significantly higher in high-risk subjects with SO than in low-risk subjects with SO in a longitudinal cohort considering all-cause mortality and liver transplantation as competing risks (sub-distribution hazard ratio, 5.37; P < .001).

CONCLUSION

The high-risk screening model may enable the identification of high-risk subjects with SO with NAFLD.

New Treatment Paradigms in Primary Biliary Cholangitis

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is an archetypal autoimmune disease. Chronic lymphocytic cholangitis is associated with interface hepatitis, ductopenia, cholestasis, and progressive biliary fibrosis. People living with PBC are frequently symptomatic, experiencing a quality-of-life burden dominated by fatigue, itch, abdominal pain, and sicca complex. Although the female predominance, specific serum autoantibodies, immune-mediated cellular injury, as well as genetic (HLA and non-HLA) risk factors, identify PBC as autoimmune, to date treatment has focused on cholestatic consequences. Biliary epithelial homeostasis is abnormal and contributes to disease. The impact of cholangiocyte senescence, apoptosis, and impaired bicarbonate secretion enhances chronic inflammation and bile acid retention. First-line therapy is a non-specific anti-cholestatic agent, ursodeoxycholic acid. For those with residual cholestasis biochemically, obeticholic acid is introduced, and this semisynthetic farnesoid X receptor agonist adds choleretic, anti-fibrotic, and anti-inflammatory activity. Future PBC licensed therapy will likely include peroxisome proliferator activated receptor (PPAR) pathway agonists, including specific PPAR-delta agonism (seladelpar), as well as elafibrinor and saroglitazar (both with broader PPAR agonism). These agents dovetail the clinical and trial experience for off-label bezafibrate and fenofibrate use. Symptom management is essential, and encouragingly, PPAR agonists reduce itch; IBAT inhibition (eg, linerixibat) also appears promising for pruritus. For those where liver fibrosis is the target, NOX inhibition is being evaluated. Earlier stage therapies in development include therapy to impact immunoregulation in patients, as well other approaches to treating pruritus (eg, antagonists of MrgprX4). Collectively the PBC therapeutic landscape is exciting. Therapy goals are increasingly proactive and individualized and aspire to rapidly achieve normal serum tests and quality of life with prevention of end-stage liver disease.

PNPLA3 Genotype and Diabetes Identify Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease at High Risk of Incident Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) can progress to cirrhosis and hepatic decompensation, but whether genetic variants influence the rate of progression to cirrhosis or are useful in risk stratification among patients with NAFLD is uncertain.

METHODS

We included participants from 2 independent cohorts, they Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI) and UK Biobank (UKBB), who had NAFLD defined by elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels in the absence of alternative chronic liver disease. The primary predictors were genetic variants and metabolic comorbidities associated with cirrhosis. We conducted time-to-event analyses using Fine-Gray competing risk models.

RESULTS

We included 7893 and 46,880 participants from MGI and UKBB, respectively. In univariable analysis, PNPLA3-rs738409-GG genotype, diabetes, obesity, and ALT of ≥2× upper limit of normal were associated with higher incidence rate of cirrhosis in both MGI and UKBB. PNPLA3-rs738409-GG had additive effects with clinical risk factors including diabetes, obesity, and ALT elevations. Among patients with indeterminate fibrosis-4 (FIB4) scores (1.3-2.67), those with diabetes and PNPLA3-rs738409-GG genotype had an incidence rate of cirrhosis comparable to that of patients with high-risk FIB4 scores (>2.67) and 2.9-4.8 times that of patients with diabetes but CC/CG genotypes. In contrast, FIB4 <1.3 was associated with an incidence rate of cirrhosis significantly lower than that of FIB4 of >2.67, even in the presence of clinical risk factors and high-risk PNPLA3 genotype.

CONCLUSIONS

PNPLA3-rs738409 genotype and diabetes identified patients with NAFLD currently considered indeterminate risk (FIB4 1.3-2.67) who had a similar risk of cirrhosis as those considered high-risk (FIB4 >2.67). PNPLA3 genotyping may improve prognostication and allow for prioritization of intensive intervention.

Comparison of Colonoscopy, Fecal Immunochemical Test, and Risk-Adapted Approach in a Colorectal Cancer Screening Trial (TARGET-C)

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The screening yield and related cost of a risk-adapted screening approach compared with established screening strategies in population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening are not clear.

METHODS

We randomly allocated 19,373 participants into 1 of the 3 screening arms in a 1:2:2 ratio: (1) one-time colonoscopy (n = 3883); (2) annual fecal immunochemical test (FIT) (n = 7793); (3) annual risk-adapted screening (n = 7697), in which, based on the risk-stratification score, high-risk participants were referred for colonoscopy and low-risk ones were referred for FIT. Three consecutive screening rounds were conducted for both the FIT and the risk-adapted screening arms. Follow-up to trace the health outcome for all the participants was conducted over the 3-year study period. The detection rate of advanced colorectal neoplasia (CRC and advanced precancerous lesions) was the main outcome. The trial was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (number: ChiCTR1800015506).

RESULTS

In the colonoscopy, FIT, and risk-adapted screening arms over 3 screening rounds, the participation rates were 42.4%, 99.3%, and 89.2%, respectively; the detection rates for advanced neoplasm (intention-to-treat analysis) were 2.76%, 2.17%, and 2.35%, respectively, with an odds ratio (OR)colonoscopy vs FIT of 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.99-1.63; P = .056), an ORcolonoscopy vsrisk-adapted screening of 1.17 (95% CI, 0.91-1.49; P = .218), and an ORrisk-adapted screeningvs FIT of 1.09 (95% CI, 0.88-1.35; P = .438); the numbers of colonoscopies needed to detect 1 advanced neoplasm were 15.4, 7.8, and 10.2, respectively; the costs for detecting 1 advanced neoplasm from a government perspective using package payment format were 6928 Chinese Yuan (CNY) ($1004), 5821 CNY ($844), and 6694 CNY ($970), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk-adapted approach is a feasible and cost-favorable strategy for population-based CRC screening and therefore could complement the well-established one-time colonoscopy and annual repeated FIT screening strategies. (Chinese Clinical Trial Registry; ChiCTR1800015506).

Health Status and Cognitive Function for Risk Stratification in Chronic Coronary and Peripheral Artery Disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

It is unclear whether health status and cognitive function assessments can augment traditional coronary artery disease (CAD) and peripheral artery disease (PAD) biomedical risk prediction frameworks. We examined the association between health status and cognitive function and subsequent adverse cardiovascular and limb events in CAD and PAD.

METHODS

Stable CAD and PAD patients from the international, multi-center COMPASS trial completed the visual analogue scale, (VAS) of the EQ-5D-3L to assess overall health status, and the Digit Symbol Substitution test (DSST) to assess cognitive function. Main outcomes were incident development of major adverse cardiovascular events, and the combined endpoint major adverse cardiovascular or limb events. The EQ VAS (per 10 unit increase) and DSST (per 5 unit increase) were added to fully adjusted (medications, demographics, cardiovascular history and risk factors) hierarchical Cox regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 23,433 patients were in the CAD cohort and 6,899 in the PAD cohort. Among both the CAD and PAD groups, higher scores on the EQ VAS (CAD: HR = 0.89, 95%CI 0.88-0.89; PAD HR = 0.89, 95%CI 0.88-0.89) and DSST (CAD HR = 0.95, 95%CI 0.94-0.95) (PAD HR = 0.95, 95%CI 0.94-0.95) were associated with a lower risk of a major adverse cardiovascular or limb events. Population attributable risks associated with the lower two quartiles vs. upper quartiles for the EQ-5D and DSST scores were 7% and 16%, respectively in the CAD cohort; and for PAD, at 14% and 18%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding health status and cognitive functioning information to biomedical evaluations can augment cardiovascular risk-stratification in CAD and PAD.

The Sequential Application of Baveno VII Criteria and VITRO Score Improves Diagnosis of Clinically Significant Portal Hypertension

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Baveno VII proposed liver stiffness measurement (LSM)/platelet count (PLT)-based criteria ('ruled out,' LSM ≤15 kPa plus PLT ≥150 G/L; 'ruled in': LSM ≥25 kPa) for clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) in compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). However, a substantial proportion of patients remains 'unclassified.'

METHODS

Patients with evidence of cACLD (LSM ≥10 kPa) undergoing hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement at the Vienna General Hospital 2004 to 2021 (derivation [2004-2016], n = 221; validation [2017-2021], n = 81) were included. The performance of noninvasive tests (NITs) including von Willebrand factor antigen to PLT ratio (VITRO) for the detection of CSPH (HVPG ≥10 mmHg) were evaluated.

RESULTS

Overall, viral hepatitis was the predominant (50.7%) etiology, followed by alcoholic liver disease (15.2%) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (13.2%); CSPH prevalence was 62.3%. In the derivation cohort, 45.7% were 'unclassified' according to Baveno VII criteria; in this group, VITRO showed an excellent diagnostic performance for the detection of CSPH (area under the receiver operating curve, 0.909; 95% confidence interval, 0.823-0.965). VITRO ≤1.5 and ≥2.5 ruled out (sensitivity, 97.7%; negative predictive value, 97.5%) and ruled in (specificity, 94.7%; positive predictive value, 91.2%), respectively, CSPH in patients who were 'unclassifiable' by Baveno VII criteria. The application of a sequential Baveno VII-VITRO algorithm reallocated 73% and 70% of 'unclassified' patients to the 'ruled in' and 'ruled out' group, respectively, while maintaining high sensitivity and negative predictive value and specificity and positive predictive value in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. No patient allocated to the 'CSPH ruled out' group by the Baveno VII-VITRO algorithm developed decompensation within 5 years, whereas 5-year decompensation rates were negligible (4%) and substantial (23.9%) among 'unclassified' and 'CSPH ruled in' patients, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The sequential application of VITRO in patients with cACLD who were 'unclassifiable' with regard to CSPH by Baveno VII criteria substantially decreased the number of 'unclassifiable' patients to <15% and refined prognostication.

The 5-Item Modified Frailty Index Independently Predicts Morbidity in Patients Undergoing Instrumented Fusion following Extradural Tumor Removal

Introduction

The management of spinal neoplasia consists of surgical, radiation, and systemic options. Little data exist to guide management based on overall health status, which is particularly challenging when patients who could benefit from surgery may be too frail for it. This study's objective was to evaluate the 5-Item Modified Frailty Index (mFI-5) as a predictor of 30-day morbidity in patients undergoing instrumented resection for metastatic extradural spinal tumors.

Methods

Adults undergoing extradural tumor resection from the 2011 to 2019 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program datasets were identified by Current Procedural Terminology codes 63275-63278 with an adjunct instrumentation code (22840-22843). Patients were classified into frailty levels 0, 1, or 2+ based on mFI-5 scores of 0, 1, or 2-5, respectively. The primary outcome was morbidity. Secondary outcomes were readmission and reoperation. Multivariate modeling was utilized to analyze mFI-5 as a predictor of outcomes. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to compare relative-model-fit based on frailty versus individual comorbidity variables to determine the optimal model. Chi-squared and Fisher's exact tests were used to establish significance between individual complications and frailty.

Results

There were 874 patients. Readmission, reoperation, and morbidity rates were 19.5%, 5.0%, 52.3%, respectively. In multivariate analyses, mFI-5=1 (OR: 1.45, SE: 0.31, p=0.036), mFI-5=2+ (OR: 1.41, SE: 0.40, p=0.036), operative time (OR: 1.18, SE: 0.03, p≤0.001), and chronic steroid use (OR: 1.56, SE: 0.42, p=0.037) independently predicted morbidity. Elective surgery (OR: 0.61) was protective. Frailty did not predict readmission or reoperation. Frailty was found to be significantly associated with respiratory complications, urinary tract infections, cardiac events, and sepsis/septic shock specifically.

Conclusions

mFI-5=1 independently predicted 45% increased odds of morbidity. mFI-5=2+ independently predicted 41% increased odds of morbidity. Further, every 30 additional minutes of operative time predicted 18% increased odds of morbidity, suggesting an increased risk of site-related complication events. Taken together, the mFI-5 serves as a valid predictor of morbidity in patients with extradural tumor undergoing instrumented excision.

A novel online calculator to predict nonroutine discharge, length of stay, readmission, and reoperation in patients undergoing surgery for intramedullary spinal cord tumors

BACKGROUND CONTEXT

Intramedullary spinal cord tumors (IMSCTs) are rare tumors associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Surgical resection is often indicated for symptomatic lesions but may result in new neurological deficits and decrease quality of life. Identifying predictors of these adverse outcomes may help target interventions designed to reduce their occurrence. Nonetheless, most prior studies have employed population-level datasets with limited granularity.

PURPOSE

To determine independent predictors of nonroutine discharge, prolonged length of stay (LOS), and 30 day readmission and reoperation, and to deploy these results as a web-based calculator.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study PATIENT SAMPLE: A total of 235 patients who underwent resection of IMSCTs at a single comprehensive cancer center.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Nonroutine discharge, prolonged LOS, 30 day readmission, and 30 day reoperation METHODS: Patients who underwent surgery from June 2002 to May 2020 at a single tertiary center were included. Data was collected on patient demographics, clinical presentation, tumor histology, surgical procedures, and 30 day readmission and reoperation. Functional status was assessed using the Modified McCormick Scale (MMS) and queried preoperative neurological symptoms included weakness, urinary and bowel dysfunction, numbness, and back and radicular pain. Variables significant on univariable analysis at the α≤0.15 level were entered into a stepwise multivariable logistic regression model.

RESULTS

Of 235 included cases, 131 (56%) experienced a nonhome discharge and 68 (29%) experienced a prolonged LOS. Of 178 patients with ≥ 30 days of follow-up, 17 (9.6%) were readmitted within 30 days and 13 (7.4%) underwent reoperation. Wound dehiscence (29%) was the most common reason for readmission. Nonhome discharge was independently predicted by older age (OR=1.03/year; p<.01), thoracic location of the tumor (OR=2.36; p=.01), presenting with bowel dysfunction (OR=4.09; p=.03), and longer incision length (OR=1.44 per level; p=.03). Independent predictors of prolonged LOS included presenting with urinary incontinence (OR=2.65; p=.05) or a higher preoperative white blood cell count (OR=1.08 per 10³/μL); p=.01), while GTR predicted shorter LOS (OR=0.40; p=.02). Independent predictive factors for 30 day unplanned readmission included experiencing ≥1 complications during the first hospitalization (OR=6.13; p<.01) and having a poor (A-C) versus good (D-E) baseline neurological status on the ASIA impairment scale (OR=0.23; p=.03). The only independent predictor of unplanned 30 day reoperation was experiencing ≥1 inpatient complications during the index hospitalization (OR=6.92; p<.01). Receiver operating curves for the constructed models produced C-statistics of 0.67-0.77 and the models were deployed as freely available web-based calculators (https://jhuspine5.shinyapps.io/Intramedullary30day).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that neurological presentation, patient demographics, and incision length were important predictors of adverse perioperative outcomes in patients with IMSCTs. The calculators can be used by clinicians for risk stratification, preoperative counseling, and targeted interventions.

Deep Submucosal Invasion Is Not an Independent Risk Factor for Lymph Node Metastasis in T1 Colorectal Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Deep submucosal invasion (DSI) is considered a key risk factor for lymph node metastasis (LNM) and important criterion to recommend surgery in T1 colorectal cancer. However, metastatic risk for DSI is shown to be low in the absence of other histologic risk factors. This meta-analysis determines the independent risk of DSI for LNM.

METHODS

Suitable studies were included to establish LNM risk for DSI in univariable analysis. To assess DSI as independent risk factor, studies were eligible if risk factors (eg, DSI, poor differentiation, lymphovascular invasion, and high-grade tumor budding) were simultaneously included in multivariable analysis or LNM rate of DSI was described in absence of poor differentiation, lymphovascular invasion, and high-grade tumor budding. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% CIs were calculated.

RESULTS

Sixty-seven studies (21,238 patients) were included. Overall LNM rate was 11.2% and significantly higher for DSI-positive cancers (OR, 2.58; 95% CI, 2.10-3.18). Eight studies (3621 patients) were included in multivariable meta-analysis and did not weigh DSI as a significant predictor for LNM (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 0.96-3.12). As opposed to a significant association between LNM and poor differentiation (OR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.39-3.28), high-grade tumor budding (OR, 2.83; 95% CI, 2.06-3.88), and lymphovascular invasion (OR, 3.16; 95% CI, 1.88-5.33). Eight studies (1146 patients) analyzed DSI as solitary risk factor; absolute risk of LNM was 2.6% and pooled incidence rate was 2.83 (95% CI, 1.66-4.78).

CONCLUSIONS

DSI is not a strong independent predictor for LNM and should be reconsidered as a sole indicator for oncologic surgery. The expanding armamentarium for local excision as first-line treatment prompts serious consideration in amenable cases to tailor T1 colorectal cancer management.

Local Explanation-Based Method for Healthcare Risk Stratification

Decision support tools in healthcare require a strong confidence in the developed Machine Learning (ML) models both in terms of performances and in their ability to provide users a deeper understanding of the underlying situation. This study presents a novel method to construct a risk stratification based on ML and local explanations. An open-source dataset was used to demonstrate the efficiency of this method that well identified the main subgroups of patients. Therefore, this method could help practitioners adjust and build protocols to improve care deliveries that would better reflect patient's risk level and profile.

Cigarette Smoke Increases Risk for Colorectal Neoplasia in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease are at increased risk of colorectal neoplasia (CRN) due to mucosal inflammation. As current surveillance guidelines form a burden on patients and healthcare costs, stratification of high-risk patients is crucial. Cigarette smoke reduces inflammation in ulcerative colitis (UC) but not Crohn's disease (CD) and forms a known risk factor for CRN in the general population. Due to this divergent association, the effect of smoking on CRN in IBD is unclear and subject of this study.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, 1,386 IBD patients with previous biopsies analyzed and reported in the PALGA register were screened for development of CRN. Clinical factors and cigarette smoke were evaluated. Patients were stratified for guideline-based risk of CRN. Cox-regression modeling was used to estimate the effect of cigarette smoke and its additive effect within the current risk stratification for prediction of CRN.

RESULTS

153 (11.5%) patients developed CRN. Previously described risk factors, i.e. first-degree family member with CRN in CD (p-value=.001), presence of post-inflammatory polyps in UC (p-value=.005), were replicated. Former smoking increased risk of CRN in UC (HR 1.73; 1.05-2.85), whereas passive smoke exposure yielded no effect. For CD, active smoking (2.20; 1.02-4.76) and passive smoke exposure (1.87; 1.09-3.20) significantly increased CRN risk. Addition of smoke exposure to the current risk-stratification model significantly improved model fit for CD.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first to describe the important role of cigarette smoke in CRN development in IBD patients. Adding this risk factor improves the current risk stratification for CRN surveillance strategies.

Risk Stratification of Childhood Medulloblastoma Using Integrated Diagnosis: Discrepancies with Clinical Risk Stratification

BACKGROUND

Recent genomic studies identified four discrete molecular subgroups of medulloblastoma (MB), and the risk stratification of childhood MB in the context of subgroups was refined in 2015. In this study, we investigated the effect of molecular subgroups on the risk stratification of childhood MB.

METHODS

The nCounter® system and a customized cancer panel were used for molecular subgrouping and risk stratification in archived tissues.

RESULTS

A total of 44 patients were included in this study. In clinical risk stratification, based on the presence of residual tumor/metastasis and histological findings, 24 and 20 patients were classified into the average-risk and high-risk groups, respectively. Molecular subgroups were successfully defined in 37 patients using limited gene expression analysis, and DNA panel sequencing additionally classified the molecular subgroups in three patients. Collectively, 40 patients were classified into molecular subgroups as follows: WNT (n = 7), SHH (n = 4), Group 3 (n = 8), and Group 4 (n = 21). Excluding the four patients whose molecular subgroups could not be determined, among the 17 average-risk group patients in clinical risk stratification, one patient in the SHH group with the TP53 variant was reclassified as very-high-risk using the new risk classification system. In addition, 5 out of 23 patients who were initially classified as high-risk group in clinical risk stratification were reclassified into the low- or standard-risk groups in the new risk classification system.

CONCLUSION

The new risk stratification incorporating integrated diagnosis showed some discrepancies with clinical risk stratification. Risk stratification based on precise molecular subgrouping is needed for the tailored treatment of MB patients.

Does sarcopenia affect outcomes in pediatric surgical patients? A scoping review

OBJECTIVE

Adults with sarcopenia have a greater risk of postoperative complications, a higher rate of ICU admission, and an increased length of hospital stay. Few studies have explored the prevalence or importance of sarcopenia in the pediatric population. This study reviews the published literature on sarcopenia in the pediatric population, including pediatric surgery.

METHODS

Original studies related to sarcopenia in children were identified using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) guidelines and the PubMed database.

RESULTS

A total of 390 articles were screened, with 28 meeting inclusion criteria. Twenty (71%) studies provided a means to define abnormal and 18 studies (64%) showed that a specific disease process could impact lean muscle mass in children. Only 4 (14%) studies associated the change in muscle mass with an outcome. Two studies investigated sarcopenia and outcomes in the pediatric surgical patient and demonstrated associations with worse outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Despite studies showing an association between sarcopenia and negative outcomes in the adult surgical population, there remains a paucity of evidence regarding the impact of sarcopenia on the pediatric population. Future studies are needed to ascertain the relationship between muscle mass and outcomes in pediatric surgical patients.

Initial prehospital Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) to predict outcomes for COVID-19 patients

OBJECTIVE

The Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) has not been widely studied for use in predicting outcomes of COVID-19 patients encountered in the prehospital setting. This study aimed to determine whether the first prehospital REMS could predict emergency department and hospital dispositions for COVID-19 patients transported by emergency medical services.

METHODS

This retrospective study used linked prehospital and hospital records from the ESO Data Collaborative for all 911-initiated transports of patients with hospital COVID-19 diagnoses from July 1 to December 31, 2020. We calculated REMS with the first recorded prehospital values for each component. We calculated area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) for emergency department (ED) mortality, ED discharge, hospital mortality, and hospital length of stay (LOS). We determined optimal REMS cut-points using test characteristic curves.

RESULTS

Among 13,830 included COVID-19 patients, median REMS was 6 (interquartile range [IQR]: 5-9). ED mortality was <1% (n = 80). REMS ≥9 predicted ED death (AUROC 0.79). One-quarter of patients (n = 3,419) were discharged from the ED with an optimal REMS cut-point of ≤5 (AUROC 0.72). Eighteen percent (n = 1,742) of admitted patients died. REMS ≥8 optimally predicted hospital mortality (AUROC 0.72). Median hospital LOS was 8.3 days (IQR: 4.1-14.8 days). REMS ≥7 predicted hospitalizations ≥3 days (AUROC 0.62).

CONCLUSION

Initial prehospital REMS was modestly predictive of ED and hospital dispositions for patients with COVID-19. Prediction was stronger for outcomes more proximate to the first set of emergency medical services (EMS) vital signs. These findings highlight the potential value of first prehospital REMS for risk stratification of individual patients and system surveillance for resource planning related to COVID-19.

The SpaTemp cohort: 168 nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus surveillance patients with and without progression to early neoplasia to evaluate the distribution of biomarkers over space and time

The ReBus cohort is a matched nested case-control cohort of patients with nondysplastic (ND) Barrett's esophagus (BE) at baseline who progressed (progressors) or did not progress (nonprogressors) to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or cancer. This cohort is constructed using the most stringent inclusion criteria to optimize explorative studies on biomarkers predicting malignant progression in NDBE. These explorative studies may benefit from expanding the number of cases and by incorporating samples that allow assessment of the biomarker over space (spatial variability) and over time (temporal variability). To (i) update the ReBus cohort by identifying new progressors and (ii) identify progressors and nonprogressors within the updated ReBus cohort containing spatial and temporal information. The ReBus cohort was updated by identifying Barrett's patients referred for endoscopic work-up of neoplasia at 4 tertiary referral centers. Progressors and nonprogressors with a multilevel (spatial) endoscopy and additional prior (temporal) endoscopies were identified to evaluate biomarkers over space and over time. The original ReBus cohort consisted of 165 progressors and 723 nonprogressors. We identified 65 new progressors meeting the same strict selection criteria, resulting in a total number of 230 progressors and 723 matched nonprogressors in the updated ReBus cohort. Within the updated cohort, 61 progressors and 107 nonprogressors (mean age 61 ± 10 years) with a spatial endoscopy (median level 3 [2-4]) were identified. 33/61 progressors and 50/107 nonprogressors had a median of 3 (2-4) additional temporal endoscopies. Our updated ReBus cohort consists of 230 progressors and 723 matched nonprogressors using the most strict selection criteria. In a subgroup of 168 Barrett's patients (the SpaTemp cohort), multiple levels have been sampled at baseline and during follow-up providing a unique platform to study spatial and temporal distribution of biomarkers in BE.

Identifying Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Diseases at High vs Low Risk of Complications

People with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis have varying presentations and clinical consequences of their disease. Patients commonly ask about their prognosis, and what this diagnosis means for them. They are asking their clinicians to predict the future. The importance of predicting the course of any disease is to guide patient expectations and to guide treatment decisions. In the past decade the strategy of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) treatment has shifted to treat patients earlier in the course of their disease, before irreversible damage occurs. Treatment approaches for disease categorized as mild, moderate or severe has most often been based on a current assessment of symptoms or disease activity without including a longitudinal assessment of a patient's disease course including past disease complications and surgeries. While a patient's current disease activity most typically drives these treatment decisions, optimally, treatment decisions would be made accounting for past disease activity and complications and the predicted future disease course. When developing a treatment plan for an individual patient, the immediate goal is to treat the current disease activity for relief of symptoms, and the long-term goal is to prevent progression of their disease due to complications. Since not all patients will progress to a complicated disease course, it is important to be able to select the right patients for the right therapy. Therefore, developing methods of stratifying patients into low-risk versus high-risk of complications will be an important aspect of treating IBD now and in the future.

Improved preoperative risk stratification with CA-125 in low-grade endometrial cancer: a multicenter prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The global obesity epidemic has great impact on the prevalence of low-grade endometrial carcinoma. The preoperative tumor serum marker cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) might contribute to improved identification of high-risk patients within this group. The study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of CA-125 in relation to established preoperative prognosticators, with a focus on identifying patients with poor outcome in low-grade endometrial carcinoma (EC) patients.

METHODS

Prospective multicenter cohort study including all consecutive patients surgically treated for endometrial carcinoma in nine collaborating hospitals from September 2011 until December 2013. All preoperative histopathological diagnoses were reviewed in a blinded manner. Associations between CA-125 and clinicopathological features were determined. Univariable and multivariable analysis by Cox regression were used. Separate analyses were performed for preoperatively designated low-grade and high-grade endometrial carcinoma patients.

RESULTS

A total of 333 patients were analyzed. CA-125 was associated with poor prognostic features including advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage. In multivariable analysis, age, preoperative tumor and CA-125 were significantly associated with disease-free survival (DFS); preoperative grade, tumor type, FIGO and CA-125 were significantly associated with disease-specific survival (DSS). Low-grade EC patients with elevated CA-125 revealed a DFS of 80.6% and DSS of 87.1%, compared to 92.1% and 97.2% in low-grade EC patients with normal CA-125.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative elevated CA-125 was associated with poor prognostic features and independently associated with DFS and DSS. Particularly patients with low-grade EC and elevated CA-125 represent a group with poor outcome and should be considered as high-risk endometrial carcinoma.

Effects of Age and Sex of Response to Ursodeoxycholic Acid and Transplant-free Survival in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) predominantly affects middle-aged women; there are few data on disease phenotypes and outcomes of PBC in men and younger patients. We investigated whether differences in sex and/or age at the start of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment are associated with response to therapy, based on biochemical markers, or differences in transplant-free survival.

METHODS

We performed a longitudinal retrospective study of 4355 adults in the Global PBC Study cohort, collected from 17 centers across Europe and North America. Patients received a diagnosis of PBC from 1961 through 2014. We evaluated the effects of sex and age on response to UDCA treatment (based on GLOBE score) and transplant-free survival using logistic regression and Cox regression analyses, respectively.

RESULTS

Male patients were older at the start of treatment (58.3±12.1 years vs 54.3±11.6 years for women; P<.0001) and had higher levels of bilirubin and lower circulating platelet counts (P<.0001). Younger patients (45 years or younger) had increased serum levels of transaminases than older patients (older than 45 years). Patients older than 45 years at time of treatment initiation had increased odds of a biochemical response to UDCA therapy, based on GLOBE score, compared to younger patients. The greatest odds of response to UDCA were observed in patients older than 65 years (odds ratio compared to younger patients 45 years or younger, 5.48; 95% CI, 3.92-7.67; P<.0001). Risk of liver transplant or death (compared to a general population matched for age, sex, and birth year) decreased significantly with advancing age: hazard ratio for patients 35 years or younger, 14.59 (95% CI, 9.66-22.02) vs hazard ratio for patients older than 65 years, 1.39 (95% CI, 1.23-1.57) (P<.0001). On multivariable analysis, sex was not independently associated with response or transplant-free survival.

CONCLUSION

In longitudinal analysis of 4355 adults in the Global PBC Study, we associated patient age, but not sex, with response to UDCA treatment and transplant-free survival. Younger age at time of treatment initiation is associated with increased risk of treatment failure, liver transplant, and death.

Postoperative Cardiac Troponin I Thresholds Associated With 1-Year Cardiac Mortality After Adult Cardiac Surgery: An Attempt to Link Risk Stratification With Management Stratification in an Observational Study

OBJECTIVES

Cardiac troponin (cTn) concentrations are measured routinely in some centers after cardiac surgery as part of risk stratification, but there are no data on how increased cTn concentrations could change patients' management. The aim of this study was to estimate relevant cTnI thresholds and identify potential interventions (additional monitoring/therapeutic interventions) that could be part of management changes of patients with cTnI greater than relevant thresholds.

DESIGN

Retrospective, single-center, observational study.

SETTING

Bichat-Claude Bernard Hospital, Paris, France, between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2012.

PARTICIPANTS

Consecutive adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

cTnI was measured on the 20th postoperative hour. Causes of death and possible interventions were determined by analysis of individual medical records. cTnI thresholds for 1-year cardiac mortality with a specificity >80% were calculated. For this study, 3,228 procedures were analyzed; 129 deaths occurred (4%), 83 of which (2.6%) were cardiac deaths. Threshold cTnI values were 4.2 µg/L for coronary artery bypass grafting (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.9-4.5) and 10.7 µg/L for non-coronary artery bypass grafting (95% CI 10.0-11.3). In multivariable analysis, the EuroSCORE II (odds ratio 1.1 [95% CI 1.06-1.13]; p < 0.001) and cTnI concentrations greater than the thresholds (odds ratio 5.62 [95% CI 3.37-9.37]; p < 0.001) were associated with significantly increased risk of death. The additive and absolute Net Reclassification Index were 0.288% and 14.1%, respectively, for a logistic model including cTnI and EuroSCORE II (area under the curve C-index 0.82 [95% CI 0.77-0.87]) compared with a model including only EuroSCORE II (area under the curve C-index 0.80 [95% CI 0.75-0.84]). Fifty-three of the 83 patients who experienced cardiac death (64%) had a cTnI concentration greater than the threshold, and an intervention was deemed possible in 47 of those 53 (89%) (mostly patients with mild postoperative cardiac dysfunction). For noncardiac deaths, 28% of patients had a cTnI concentration greater than the threshold and no interventions were deemed possible.

CONCLUSIONS

In an attempt to evolve from risk to management stratification, this study's results identified a subgroup of patients with mild cardiac dysfunction and a cTnI concentration greater than the threshold who could be the target for interventions in future validation studies concerning changes in patient management.

Early Detection of Pancreatic Cancer: Opportunities and Challenges

Most patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) present with symptomatic, surgically unresectable disease. Although the goal of early detection of PDAC is laudable and likely to result in significant improvement in overall survival, the relatively low prevalence of PDAC renders general population screening infeasible. The challenges of early detection include identification of at-risk individuals in the general population who would benefit from longitudinal surveillance programs and appropriate biomarker and imaging-based modalities used for PDAC surveillance in such cohorts. In recent years, various subgroups at higher-than-average risk for PDAC have been identified, including those with familial risk due to germline mutations, a history of pancreatitis, patients with mucinous pancreatic cysts, and elderly patients with new-onset diabetes. The last 2 categories are discussed at length in terms of the opportunities and challenges they present for PDAC early detection. We also discuss current and emerging imaging modalities that are critical to identifying early, potentially curable PDAC in high-risk cohorts on surveillance.

Assessment of the prognostic utility of the FIT treadmill score in coronary artery disease patients undergoing cardiac rehabilitation

Introduction: Cardiovascular fitness is an important goal in cardiac rehabilitation (CR) programs and is predictive of outcomes. We sought to determine the utility of a novel clinical treadmill score in determining prognosis of coronary artery disease (CAD) patients after CR. Methods: Demographic, clinical and exercise data of 262 patients (mean age 55.8 ± 10.1 years) who completed an outpatient CR program were analyzed. The FIT treadmill score was determined prior to program initiation and after completion. Patients were classified according to risk category using the FIT scores after CR completion and were followed up for the occurrence of 10 year all cause mortality. Results: On median follow up of 10.3 years, 52 patients died. An improvement of the FIT treadmill score by 18.2 points was associated with a 21% reduction in mortality (multivariate-adjusted Hazard Ratio 0.79, 95% CI 0.56-1.08, P≤0.05). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed increased occurrence of mortality in the high-risk group. After adjustment for confounders a high-risk FIT score category on exit (HR: 2.7, 95% CI 1.41-5.17, P≤0.05) was predictive of increased mortality. Both an improvement in the FIT score (AUC=0.81) and the FIT score category on exit (AUC=0.92) had good discrimination in predicting mortality. Conclusion: The FIT treadmill score is predictive of all cause mortality in patients with CAD undergoing CR. An improvement in the FIT score after CR is associated with improved survival. The FIT score may be a useful prognostic marker of overall cardiovascular fitness and successful outcome for patients who participate in CR programs.

Development of a Clinical Decision Support System for Pediatric Abdominal Pain in Emergency Department Settings Across Two Health Systems Within the HCSRN

Background:

Appendicitis is a common surgical emergency in children, yet diagnosis can be challenging. An electronic health record (EHR) based, clinical decision support (CDS) system called Appy CDS was designed to help guide management of pediatric patients with acute abdominal pain within the Health Care Systems Research Network (HCSRN).

Objectives:

To describe the development and implementation of a clinical decision support tool (Appy CDS) built independently but synergistically at two large HCSRN affiliated health systems using well-established platforms, and to assess the tool’s Triage component, aiming to identify pediatric patients at increased risk for appendicitis.

Results:

Despite differences by site in design and implementation, such as the use of alerts, incorporating gestalt, and other workflow variations across sites, using simple screening questions and automated exclusions, both systems were able to identify a population with similar appendicitis rates (11.8 percent and 10.6 percent), where use of the full Appy CDS would be indicated.

Discussion:

These 2 HCSRN sites designed Appy CDS to capture a population at risk for appendicitis and deliver CDS to that population while remaining locally relevant and adhering to organizational preferences. Despite different approaches to point-of-care CDS, the sites have identified similar cohorts with nearly identical background rates of appendicitis.

Next Steps:

The full Appy CDS tool, providing personalized risk assessment and tailored recommendations, is undergoing evaluation as part of a pragmatic cluster randomized trial aiming to reduce reliance on advanced diagnostic imaging. The novel approaches to CDS we present could serve as the basis for future ED interventions.

Active surveillance in intermediate risk prostate cancer

OBJECTIVES

Active Surveillance (AS) has become an established treatment option for men with low-risk prostate cancer (PCa), demonstrating superior functional outcomes and excellent oncologic outcomes.As such, it has been appealing to extend AS to patients with intermediate risk PCa. We provide a review of the current experience with AS in the intermediate-risk PCa population.

METHODS

Risk stratification is the key to treatment success. Many clinical factors (age, percent Gleason 4, PSA density, race/ethnicity, and genetic predisposition) and genomic markers have proven prognostic value in the AS population. We performed a systematic review of the currently available data (randomized trials and prospective cohort studies) to establish the status of AS in the intermediate risk patient population.

RESULTS

Our ability to predict the natural history of intermediate risk prostate cancer is imperfect. While the benefits of AS make it an appealing option for men with intermediate risk disease, the published experience todate demonstrates that AS for all men with intermediate risk disease leads to higher rates of metastatic disease and loss of the opportunity for cure. These same studiesalso demonstrate that a subset of patients with intermediate risk disease have indolent disease that may benefit from AS. This heterogeneity is not adequately captured with traditional histopathologic staging. Clinical, genomic, and radiologic biomarkers play a key role in appropriate risk stratification and patient selection. The optimal use of these biomarkers in the intermediate riskpatient is currently the subject of intense evaluation.

CONCLUSION

Active surveillance for men at the favorable end of intermediate risk prostate cancer is an appealing alternative to radical therapy, but carries a modest but increased risk of metastatic disease compared to low risk cancer. Many biomarkers are currently being evaluated to enhance precise risk stratification of this important subgroup of patients.

Diminutive Polyps With Advanced Histologic Features Do Not Increase Risk for Metachronous Advanced Colon Neoplasia

BACKGROUND & AIMS

With advances in endoscopic imaging, it is possible to differentiate adenomatous from hyperplastic diminutive (1-5 mm) polyps during endoscopy. With the optical Resect-and-Discard strategy, these polyps are then removed and discarded without histopathology assessment. However, failure to recognize adenomas (vs hyperplastic polyps), or discarding a polyp with advanced histologic features, could result in a patient being considered at low risk for metachronous advanced neoplasia, resulting in an inappropriately long surveillance interval. We collected data from international cohorts of patients undergoing colonoscopy to determine what proportion of patients are high risk because of diminutive polyps advanced histologic features and their risk for metachronous advanced neoplasia.

METHODS

We collected data from 12 cohorts (in the United States or Europe) of patients undergoing colonoscopy after a positive result from a fecal immunochemical test (FIT cohort, n = 34,221) or undergoing colonoscopies for screening, surveillance, or evaluation of symptoms (colonoscopy cohort, n = 30,123). Patients at high risk for metachronous advanced neoplasia were defined as patients with polyps that had advanced histologic features (cancer, high-grade dysplasia, ≥25% villous features), 3 or more diminutive or small (6-9 mm) nonadvanced adenomas, or an adenoma or sessile serrated lesion ≥10 mm. Using an inverse variance random effects model, we calculated the proportion of diminutive polyps with advanced histologic features; the proportion of patients classified as high risk because their diminutive polyps had advanced histologic features; and the risk of these patients for metachronous advanced neoplasia.

RESULTS

In 51,510 diminutive polyps, advanced histologic features were observed in 7.1% of polyps from the FIT cohort and 1.5% polyps from the colonoscopy cohort (P = .044); however, this difference in prevalence did not produce a significant difference in the proportions of patients assigned to high-risk status (0.8% of patients in the FIT cohort and 0.4% of patients in the colonoscopy cohort) (P = .25). The proportions of high-risk patients because of diminutive polyps with advanced histologic features who were found to have metachronous advanced neoplasia (17.6%) did not differ significantly from the proportion of low-risk patients with metachronous advanced neoplasia (14.6%) (relative risk for high-risk categorization, 1.13; 95% confidence interval 0.79-1.61).

CONCLUSION

In a pooled analysis of data from 12 international cohorts of patients undergoing colonoscopy for screening, surveillance, or evaluation of symptoms, we found that diminutive polyps with advanced histologic features do not increase risk for metachronous advanced neoplasia.

Impact of Residual SYNTAX Score and Its Derived Indexes on Clinical Outcomes after Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Data from a Large Single Center

Background

Residual SYNTAX score (rSS) and its derived indexes including SYNTAX revascularization index (SRI) and clinical rSS had been developed to quantify and describe the extent of incomplete revascularization. This study was conducted to explore the utility of the three scores among real-world patients after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

Methods

From January 2013 to December 2013, patients underwent PCI treatment at Fuwai Hospital were included. The primary endpoints were all-cause death and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events. The secondary endpoints were myocardial infarction, revascularization, stroke, and stent thrombosis. Kaplan-Meier methodology was used to determine the outcomes. Cox multivariable regression was to test the associations between scores and all-cause mortality.

Results

A total of 10,344 patients were finally analyzed in this study. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicated that greater residual coronary lesions quantified by rSS and its derived indexes were associated with increased risk of adverse cardiovascular events. However, after multivariate analysis, only clinical rSS was an independent predictor of 2-year all-cause death (hazard ratio: 1.02, 95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.03, P < 0.01). By receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, clinical rSS had superior predictability of 2-year all-cause death than rSS and SRI (area under ROC curve [AUC]: 0.59 vs. 0.56 vs. 0.56, all P < 0.01), whereas rSS was superior in predicting repeat revascularization than clinical rSS and SRI (AUC: 0.62 vs. 0.61 vs. 0.61; all P < 0.01). When comparing the predictive capability of rSS ≥8 with SRI <70%, their predictabilities were not significantly different.

Conclusions

This study indicates that all three indexes (rSS, clinical rSS, and SRI) are able to risk-stratify patients and predict 2-year outcomes after PCI. However, their prognostic capabilities are different.

Gastric Cancer Screening by Combined Determination of Serum Helicobacter pylori Antibody and Pepsinogen Concentrations: ABC Method for Gastric Cancer Screening

Objective:

Gastroscopy combined with gastric mucosa biopsies is currently regarded as a gold standard for diagnosis of gastric cancer. However, its application is restricted in clinical practice due to its invasive property. A new noninvasive population screening process combining the assay of anti-Helicobacter pylori antibody and serum pepsinogen (PG) (ABC method) is adopted to recognize the high-risk patients for further endoscopy examination, avoiding the unnecessary gastroscopy for most population and saving the cost consumption for mass screening annually. Nevertheless, controversies exist for the grouping of ABC method and the intervals of gastroscopy surveillance for each group. In this review, we summarized these popular concerned topics for providing useful references to the healthcare practitioner in clinical practice.

Data Sources:

The PubMed databases were systematically searched from the inception dates to November 22, 2017, using the keywords “Helicobacter pylori,” “Pepsinogens,” and “Stomach Neoplasms.”

Study Selection:

Original articles and reviews on the topics were selected.

Results:

Anti-H. pylori antibody and serum PG concentration showed significant changes under the different status of H. pylori infection and the progression of atrophic gastritis, which can be used for risk stratification of gastric cancer in clinic. In addition, anti-H. pylori antibody titer can be used for further risk stratification of gastric cancer contributing to determine better endoscopy surveillance interval.

Conclusions:

The early detection and diagnosis of gastric cancer benefit from the risk stratification, but the cutoff values for H. pylori antibody and serum PG concentration require further modification.

Biomarkers of Barrett's Esophagus: From the Laboratory to Clinical Practice

The currently recommended approach to managing cancer risk for patients with Barrett's esophagus is endoscopic surveillance including a biopsy protocol to sample the esophageal tissue randomly to detect dysplasia. However, there are numerous limitations in this practice that rely on the histopathological grading of dysplasia alone to make clinical decisions. The availability of in silico models demonstrating the potential cost-effectiveness of biomarker-based stratification has increased interest in finding a clinically relevant "Barrett's biomarker." The success of endoscopic eradication therapy in preventing neoplastic progression of dysplastic Barrett's esophagus has promoted the desire to stratify non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus to those with "high risk" that may benefit from endotherapy. Furthermore, on the other end of the spectrum, there is interest in searching for a "low risk" marker that may identify those that would not likely benefit from endoscopy screening or surveillance. This review highlights recent data from the genomics (r)evolution revealing new genetic biomarkers of susceptibility to the development of Barrett's esophagus and novel pathways for its neoplastic progression, addresses the development of new modes of tissue sampling and imaging to detect early neoplasia in Barrett's esophagus, and discusses current progress in moving biomarkers from the laboratory into clinical practice in the era of precision medicine.

The utility of preoperative laboratories in predicting postoperative complications following posterolateral lumbar fusion

BACKGROUND CONTEXT

Several studies have suggested that laboratory results have minimal impact on clinical decision making in surgery. Despite the widespread use of preoperative testing in spine surgery and the large volume of posterolateral lumbar fusions (PLFs) being performed each year, no study has assessed the ability of preoperative laboratories to predict adverse events following PLF.

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between commonly obtained preoperative laboratory results and postoperative complications following one- to two-level PLF.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a retrospective study of prospectively collected data.

PATIENT SAMPLE

The 2006-2013 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database was employed to identify all patients who underwent one- to two-level PLF.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The outcome variables of interest were 30-day postoperative complications, which were assessed as major complications, minor adverse events, and total complications.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Demographics, comorbidities, and perioperative characteristics were collected for each patient. Preoperative laboratories included sodium, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, albumin, bilirubin, serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase, alkaline phosphatase, white blood cell count, hematocrit, platelet count, prothrombin time, international normalized ratio, and partial thromboplastin time. Bivariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression modeling were used to explore the relationship between abnormal preoperative laboratories and the incidence of postoperative complications.

RESULTS

After controlling for age, ASA score, length of surgery, and all significant comorbidities, abnormal sodium (odds ratio [OR]=2.47, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.45-4.19, p=.001) and abnormal INR (OR=2.33, 95% CI: 1.09-4.98, p=.029) were significantly associated with the development of any complication. Sodium (OR=1.61, 95% CI: 1.01-2.54, p=.04) and platelets (OR=1.58, 95% CI: 1.02-2.44, p=.04) were associated with minor complications. Meanwhile, creatinine (OR=1.74, 95% CI: 1.02-2.99, p=.04) and platelets (OR=1.71, 95% CI: 1.02-2.89, p=.04) were significant predictors of major adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

This study represents the first attempt to assess the utility of preoperative laboratories in predicting postoperative complications in PLF. Although the majority of laboratories were not significantly associated with adverse events, abnormal sodium values, INR, creatinine, and platelets were shown to be predictive of various complications.

Prevention of sudden death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: bridging the gaps in knowledge

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the most devastating complication of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). Although the annual rate of SCD in the general HCM population is <1% per year according to contemporary series, there is still a small subset of patients who are at increased risk of SCD. The greatest challenge in the management of HCM is identifying those at increased risk as an implantable cardioverter defibrillator is a potentially life-saving therapy. In this review, we sought to summarize the available data on SCD in HCM and provide a clinical perspective on the current differing and somewhat conflicting European and American recommendations on risk stratification, with balanced guidance with regards to rational clinical decision making. Additionally, we sought to learn more on the actual implementation of the guidelines by HCM experts worldwide.

Development of Short-Form Versions of the Screener and Opioid Assessment for Patients with Pain-Revised (SOAPP-R): A Proof-of-Principle Study

Background

The Screener and Opioid Assessment for Patients with Pain-Revised (SOAPP-R) is a 24-item questionnaire designed to assess risk of aberrant medication-related behaviors in chronic pain patients. The introduction of short forms of the SOAPP-R may save time and increase utilization by practitioners.

Objective

To develop and evaluate candidate SOAPP-R short forms.

Design

Retrospective study.

Setting

Pain centers.

Subjects

Four hundred and twenty-eight patients with chronic noncancer pain.

Methods

Subjects had previously been administered the full-length version of the SOAPP-R and been categorized as positive or negative for aberrant medication-related behaviors via the Aberrant Drug Behavior Index (ADBI). Short forms of the SOAPP-R were developed using lasso logistic regression. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) of all forms were calculated with respect to the ADBI using the complete data set, training-test analysis, and 10-fold cross-validation. The coefficient alpha of each form was also calculated. An external set of 12 pain practitioners reviewed the forms for content.

Results

In the complete data set analysis, a form of 12 items exhibited sensitivity, specificity, and AUC greater than or equal to those of the full-length SOAPP-R (which were 0.74, 0.67, and 0.76, respectively). The short form had a coefficient alpha of 0.76. In the training-test analysis and 10-fold cross-validation, it exhibited an AUC value within 0.01 of that of the full-length SOAPP-R. The majority of external practitioners reported a preference for this short form.

Conclusions

The 12-item version of the SOAPP-R has potential as a short risk screener and should be tested prospectively.

Long-term prognostic value of combined free triiodothyronine and late gadolinium enhancement in nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND

Thyroid dysfunction and myocardial fibrosis are both associated with cardiovascular events in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM).

HYPOTHESIS

The combination of thyroid hormone (TH) and myocardial fibrosis (detected by late gadolinium enhancement [LGE]) is an independent and incremental predictor of adverse events in DCM.

METHODS

We consecutively enrolled 220 idiopathic DCM patients with thyroid function and LGE assessment at Fuwai Hospital (China) from January 2010 to October 2011 and followed up through December 2015. Patients were divided into 4 groups according to the presence or absence of LGE and FT3 value (median level of 2.79 pg/mL): LGE-positive + FT3 < 2.79 pg/mL, LGE-positive + FT3 ≥ 2.79 pg/mL, LGE-negative + FT3 < 2.79 pg/mL, and LGE-negative + FT3 ≥ 2.79 pg/mL.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 61 months, 56 patients (25.5%) died, with 27/56 (48.2%), 8/45 (17.8%), 12/54 (22.2%), and 9/65 (13.8%) among 4 groups (P = 0.009), respectively. Multivariable Cox regression analysis identified LGE-positive and FT3 < 2.79 pg/mL as a significant independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 2.893, 95% confidence interval: 1.323-6.326, P = 0.008). Combining the predictive value of FT3 and LGE status significantly improved risk reclassification for all-cause mortality, as indicated by the net reclassification improvement (0.28; P = 0.005) and integrated discrimination improvement (0.058; P = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that the combination of FT3 and LGE yielded a more accurate predictive value for long-term prognosis in patients with DCM, which may improve patient selection for intensive interventions.

A Model To Identify Individuals at High Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Precancerous Lesions in Regions of High Prevalence in China

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We aimed to develop a population-based model to identify individuals at high risk for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in regions of China with a high prevalence of this cancer.

METHODS

We collected findings from 15,073 permanent residents (45-69 years old) of 334 randomly selected villages in Hua County, Henan Province, China who underwent endoscopic screening (with iodine staining) for ESCC from January 2012 through September 2015. The entire esophagus and stomach were examined; biopsies were collected from all focal lesions (or from standard sites in the esophagus if no abnormalities were found) and analyzed histologically. Squamous dysplasia, carcinoma in situ, and ESCC were independently confirmed by 2 pathologists. Before endoscopy, subjects completed a questionnaire on ESCC risk factors. Variables were evaluated with unconditional univariate logistic regression analysis; variables found to be significantly associated with ESCC were then analyzed by multivariate logistic regression modeling. We used the Akaike information criterion to develop our final model structure and the coding form of variables with multiple measures. We developed 2 groups of models, separately defining severe dysplasia and above (SDA) (lesions including severe dysplasia and higher-grade lesions) and moderate dysplasia and above (lesions including moderate dysplasia and higher-grade lesions) as outcome events. Age-stratified and whole-age models were developed; their discriminative ability in the full multivariate model and the simple age model was compared. We performed area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the DeLong test to evaluate model performance.

RESULTS

Our age-stratified prediction models identified individuals 60 years of age or younger with SDA with an AUC value of 0.795 (95% confidence interval, 0.736-0.854) and individuals older than 60 years with SDA with an AUC value of 0.681 (95% confidence interval, 0.618-0.743). Factors associated with SDA in individuals 60 years or younger included age closer to 60 years, use of coal or wood as a main source of cooking fuel, body mass index of 22 kg/m² or less, unexplained epigastric pain, and rapid ingestion of meals. In subjects older than 60 years, SDA associated with age, family history of ESCC, cigarette smoking, body mass index of 22 kg/m² or less, pesticide exposure, irregular eating habits, intake of high temperature foods, rapid ingestion of meals, and ingestion of leftover food in summer months. Use of our model in screening could have allowed 27% of subjects 60 years or younger and 9% of subjects older than 60 years to avoid endoscopy without missing SDAs. This means that approximately 2500 of endoscopies in total (16.6%) could have been avoided.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a low-cost, easy-to-use model to identify individuals at risk for severe dysplasia or cancer of the esophagus living in a region of China with a high risk of ESCC. This model might be used to select individuals and groups of persons who should undergo endoscopy analysis for esophageal cancer.

ESC sudden-death risk model in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: Incremental value of quantitative contrast-enhanced CMR in intermediate-risk patients

BACKGROUND

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) remains the most common cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in the young; however, current strategies do not identify all HCM patients at risk. A novel validated algorithm was proposed by the last European Society of Cardiology guidelines to guide implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. Recently, extensive myocardial fibrosis was independently associated with increased risk of SCD events. This study aimed to establish the relation between myocardial fibrosis (late gadolinium enhancement [LGE] extension) and the novel SCD risk-prediction model in a real population of HCM to evaluate its potential additional value in the different risk groups.

HYPOTHESIS

There is a significant association between LGE extension and the novel SCD risk calculator that may help conflicting ICD decisions.

METHODS

Seventy-seven patients with HCM underwent routine clinical evaluation, echocardiography, and cardiac magnetic resonance study. Their SCD risk at 5 years was calculated using the new model.

RESULTS

Extension of LGE positively correlated with SCD risk prediction (r = 0.7, P < 0.001). Low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups according to the model showed significantly different extent of LGE (5% ± 6% vs 18% ± 9% vs 17% ± 4%; P < 0.001). Four patients (6%) in the low-risk group and 5 (62%) in the intermediate-risk group showed extensive areas of LGE. All patients except 1 (86%) at highest risk (n = 6) showed extensive areas of LGE.

CONCLUSIONS

LGE extension is concordant with the novel SCD-risk model defining low- and high-risk groups; it may provide additional information, allowing better discrimination to support implantable cardioverter-defibrillator decision. LGE quantification holds promise for SCD stratification in HCM.

Patient Age, Sex, and Inflammatory Bowel Disease Phenotype Associate With Course of Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is an orphan hepatobiliary disorder associated with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We aimed to estimate the risk of disease progression based on distinct clinical phenotypes in a large international cohort of patients with PSC.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective outcome analysis of patients diagnosed with PSC from 1980 through 2010 at 37 centers in Europe, North America, and Australia. For each patient, we collected data on sex, clinician-reported age at and date of PSC and IBD diagnoses, phenotypes of IBD and PSC, and date and indication of IBD-related surgeries. The primary and secondary endpoints were liver transplantation or death (LTD) and hepatopancreatobiliary malignancy, respectively. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to determine the effects of individual covariates on rates of clinical events, with time-to-event analysis ascertained through Kaplan-Meier estimates.

RESULTS

Of the 7121 patients in the cohort, 2616 met the primary endpoint (median time to event of 14.5 years) and 721 developed hepatopancreatobiliary malignancy. The most common malignancy was cholangiocarcinoma (n = 594); patients of advanced age at diagnosis had an increased incidence compared with younger patients (incidence rate: 1.2 per 100 patient-years for patients younger than 20 years old, 6.0 per 100 patient-years for patients 21-30 years old, 9.0 per 100 patient-years for patients 31-40 years old, 14.0 per 100 patient-years for patients 41-50 years old, 15.2 per 100 patient-years for patients 51-60 years old, and 21.0 per 100 patient-years for patients older than 60 years). Of all patients with PSC studied, 65.5% were men, 89.8% had classical or large-duct disease, and 70.0% developed IBD at some point. Assessing the development of IBD as a time-dependent covariate, Crohn's disease and no IBD (both vs ulcerative colitis) were associated with a lower risk of LTD (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.62; P < .001 and HR, 0.90; P = .03, respectively) and malignancy (HR, 0.68; P = .008 and HR, 0.77; P = .004, respectively). Small-duct PSC was associated with a lower risk of LTD or malignancy compared with classic PSC (HR, 0.30 and HR, 0.15, respectively; both P < .001). Female sex was also associated with a lower risk of LTD or malignancy (HR, 0.88; P = .002 and HR, 0.68; P < .001, respectively). In multivariable analyses assessing the primary endpoint, small-duct PSC characterized a low-risk phenotype in both sexes (adjusted HR for men, 0.23; P < .001 and adjusted HR for women, 0.48; P = .003). Conversely, patients with ulcerative colitis had an increased risk of liver disease progression compared with patients with Crohn's disease (HR, 1.56; P < .001) or no IBD (HR, 1.15; P = .002).

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of data from individual patients with PSC worldwide, we found significant variation in clinical course associated with age at diagnosis, sex, and ductal and IBD subtypes. The survival estimates provided might be used to estimate risk levels for patients with PSC and select patients for clinical trials.

Brugada Syndrome:Risk Stratification And Management

The Brugada syndrome (BrS) is an arrhythmogenic disease associated with an increased risk of ventricular fibrillation and sudden cardiac death. The risk stratification and management of BrS patients, particularly of asymptomatic ones, still remains challenging. A previous history of aborted sudden cardiac death or arrhythmic syncope in the presence of spontaneous type 1 ECG pattern of BrS phenotype appear to be the most reliable predictors of future arrhythmic events. Several other ECG parameters have been proposed for risk stratification. Among these ECG markers, QRS-fragmentation appears very promising. Although the value of electrophysiological study still remains controversial, it appears to add important information on risk stratification, particularly when incorporated in multiparametric scores in combination with other known risk factors. The present review article provides an update on the pathophysiology, risk stratification and management of patients with BrS.

Estimating Risk of Alcohol Dependence Using Empirically Validated Ordinal Risk Zones Versus Recommended Binary Risk Zones of the RAPS4: A Validation Study Using Stratum-Specific Likelihood Ratio Analysis

BACKGROUND

Effective treatment options for alcohol dependence exist; yet, only 10% of people with alcohol dependence receive treatment. The objective of the current study was to examine the performance of previously recommended Rapid Alcohol Problem Screen 4 (RAPS4) risk zones, based on single binary cut-points (RAPS4 ≥ 1; RAPS4 ≥ 2), and empirically identified RAPS4 risk zones to identify people with alcohol dependence so that further diagnostic assessment or interventions can be offered.

METHOD

Stratum-specific likelihood ratio (SSLR) and receiver operating characteristic analyses were used to compare the screening performance of empirically identified "risk zones" on the RAPS4 to previously recommended binary cut-points in a general population sample of current drinkers in Ireland (N = 4,267). SSLRs were also used along with the pretest prevalence of alcohol dependence to estimate posttest probabilities of alcohol dependence for the recommended and empirically identified risk zones.

RESULTS

The weighted prevalence estimate of alcohol dependence among current drinkers was 6.9% (9.3% men; 4.5% women). The SSLR analysis identified multiple risk zones in the RAPS4, with each of the individual scores (0, 1, 2, 3, 4) retained as 5 separate ordinal risk zones for both men and women. A comparison of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the ordinal RAPS4 risk zones performed better than recommended binary thresholds for both men and women. Based on the pretest probability of 9.3% and the identified SSLRs for the ordinal risk zones, the posttest probability of alcohol dependence for men ranged from 1.6% for those in the lower risk zone (RAPS4 = 0) to 86.7% for those in the highest risk zone (RAPS4 = 4). The posttest probability of alcohol dependence for women ranged from 0.4% for those in the lower risk zone to 80% for those in the higher risk zone.

CONCLUSIONS

The detection of alcohol dependence may be improved using the empirically identified ordinal RAPS4 risk zones for both men and women. The application of the identified SSLRs, particularly if integrated into a clinical decision support system, may be helpful for clinicians in providing feedback to patients regarding their risk of alcohol dependence.

A new simple morphology-based risk score is prognostic in stage I/II colon cancers

A portion of stage I/II colon cancers (10-20%) exhibit an adverse clinical course. The administration of adjuvant chemotherapy is recommended only in certain high-risk situations. However, these risk factors recently failed to predict benefit from adjuvant therapy. We composed a new morphology-based risk score that includes pT1/2 versus 3/4 stage, vascular or lymphovascular invasion, invasion type according to Jass, tumor budding and paucity (less than two) of lymph nodes larger than 5 mm. The occurrence of each of these factors accounts for one point in the score (Range 0-5). This score was evaluated in a retrospective study that included 301 cases. The overall survival differed significantly between the three groups with median survival times of 103, 90, and 48 months, respectively. Multivariable analysis revealed morphology-based risk-high risk and low risk-as the sole independent factors for the prediction of death. Morphology-based risk scoring was superior to microsatellite status and NCCN risk stratification. This method identifies a group of patients that comprises 18% of the stage II cases with an adverse clinical course. Further studies are necessary to confirm its prognostic value and the possible therapeutic consequences.

Prognostication in Different Heart Failure Phenotypes: The Role of Circulating Biomarkers

Heart failure (HF) is multifactorial syndrome with high cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality rates associated with an increasing prevalence worldwide. Measuring plasma levels of circulating biomarkers, i.e., natriuretic peptides, cardiac-specific troponins, metabolomic intermediates, Galectin-3, ST2, cardiotrophin-1, soluble endoglin and growth differentiation factor 15, may assist in the prognostication of HF development. However, the role of biomarker models in the prediction of an early stage of HF with a preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and HF with a reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is not still understood. This review explores the knowledge regarding the utility of cardiac biomarkers, aiming to reclassify patients with different phenotypes of HF. The review reports that several biomarkers reflected on subsequently alter collagen turnover, cardiac fibrosis and inflammation, which might have diagnostic and predictive value in HFpEF and HFrEF. The best candidates for determining the early stage of HF development were sST2, Galectin-3, CT-1 and GDF-15. However, increased plasma concentrations of these biomarkers were not specific to a distinct disease group of HFpEF and HFrEF. Finally, more investigations are required to determine the role of novel biomarkers in the prediction of HF and the determination of the early stages of HFpEF and HFrEF development.

Sendai and Fukuoka Consensus Guidelines Identify Advanced Neoplasia in Patients With Suspected Mucinous Cystic Neoplasms of the Pancreas

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Little is known about whether the 2006 Sendai guidelines or 2012 Fukuoka guidelines are being used to determine the level of risk posed by suspected pancreatic mucinous cystic neoplasms (PCNs). We evaluated whether the guidelines accurately predicted which patients with suspected PCNs, which was based on cross-sectional imaging findings, would be found to have advanced neoplasia in surgery.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of data collected from 194 patients with cystic lesions of the pancreas, which were assessed by cross-sectional imaging analyses, who underwent surgery for suspected PCNs at the Hospital at the University of Pennsylvania from 2000 through 2008. Imaging data were used to classify patients according to the Sendai guidelines as high risk or low risk and according to the Fukuoka guidelines as high risk, worrisome, or low risk. Pathology analyses of samples collected during surgery were used as the reference. A logistic regression model was created to identify factors associated with advanced neoplasia. The Sendai and Fukuoka guideline criteria were analyzed by univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

Advanced neoplasias were found in 36 patients (18.5%; 22 invasive cancers and 14 high-grade dysplasias). The median size of cysts was 33 mm. All patients found to have invasive cancers were accurately assigned to the Sendai guidelines high risk or Fukuoka guidelines high risk groups. However, 3 patients in the Sendai guidelines low risk and 2 patients in the Fukuoka guidelines low risk groups were found to have high-grade dysplasia. The Sendai guidelines identified patients with advanced neoplasia with 91.7% sensitivity, 21.5% specificity, 21% positive predictive value, and 91.9% negative predictive value. A designation of Fukuoka guidelines high risk identified patients with advanced neoplasia with 55.6% sensitivity, 73% specificity, 32% positive predictive value, and 87.9% negative predictive value. Overall, there was no statistically significant difference between the guidelines in predicting which patients had advanced neoplasia. On multivariate analysis, the presence of a mural nodule (odds ratio [OR], 2.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-6.27; P = .008), dilated main pancreatic duct >10 mm (OR, 7.44; 95% CI, 2.36-23.52; P = .001), or enhancing solid component (OR, 2.92; 95% CI, 1.16-7.64; P = .02) were associated with detection of advanced neoplasia in pancreatic cysts.

CONCLUSION

On the basis of a retrospective analysis, the Sendai and Fukuoka guidelines accurately determine which patients with pancreatic cysts have advanced neoplasia. The guidelines accurately recommended surgical resection for all patients found to have invasive cancer, although some patients with high-grade dysplasia were missed. The updated Fukuoka guidelines are not superior to the Sendai guidelines in identifying neoplasias. Cyst size was not associated with advanced neoplasia.

Risk Stratification in Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass (OPCAB) Surgery—Role of EuroSCORE II

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the EuroSCORE II for risk stratification in patients undergoing off-pump coronary artery bypass (OPCAB) surgery.

DESIGN

A retrospective observational study.

SETTING

Two tertiary care hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were 1,211 patients undergoing OPCAB surgery.

INTERVENTIONS

No interventions were implemented.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The EuroSCORE II estimated the operative risk for each patient. The calibration of the scoring system was assessed using the Hosmer Lemeshow test, and the discriminative capacity was estimated with area under receiver operating characteristic curves. The incidence, patient characteristics, causes of intraoperative conversion to on-pump coronary artery bypass (ONCAB), and outcome were studied. The all-cause in-hospital mortality was 2.39%. Predicted mortality with the EuroSCORE II was 2.03±1.63. Using the Hosmer Lemeshow test, a C statistic of 8.066 (p = 0.472) was obtained, indicating satisfactory model fit. The calculated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.706 (p = 0.0002), indicating good discriminatory power. Emergency intraoperative conversion to ONCAB occurred in 6.53% of patients. The mortality in the ONCAB group was significantly higher compared with patients who underwent successful OPCAB surgery (15.18% v 1.5%, p<0.0001). On multiple regression analysis with conversion to ONCAB as the endpoint, associated factors were patients with a higher EuroSCORE II (odds ratio = 1.13, confidence interval = 1.03-1.27) and more-than-trivial mitral regurgitation (odds ratio = 1.84, confidence interval = 1.07-3.06). Net reclassification improvement of 0.714 (p<0.0001) was obtained when on-pump conversion was added to the EuroSCORE II.

CONCLUSIONS

The EuroSCORE II has satisfactory calibration and discrimination power to predict mortality after OPCAB surgery. Intraoperative conversion to ONCAB is a major complication of OPCAB surgery. A higher EuroSCORE II also predicts higher probability of conversion to ONCAB.

Shortening the Screener and Opioid Assessment for Patients with Pain-Revised (SOAPP-R): A Proof-of-Principle Study for Customized Computer-Based Testing

BACKGROUND

The Screener and Opioid Assessment for Patients with Pain-Revised (SOAPP-R) is a 24-item self-report instrument that was developed to aid providers in predicting aberrant medication-related behaviors among chronic pain patients. Although the SOAPP-R has garnered widespread use, certain patients may be dissuaded from taking it because of its length. Administrative barriers associated with lengthy questionnaires further limit its utility.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the extent to which two techniques for computer-based administration (curtailment and stochastic curtailment) reduce the average test length of the SOAPP-R without unduly affecting sensitivity and specificity.

DESIGN

Retrospective study.

SETTING

Pain management centers.

SUBJECTS

Four hundred and twenty-eight chronic non-cancer pain patients.

METHODS

Subjects had taken the full-length SOAPP-R and been classified by the Aberrant Drug Behavior Index (ADBI) as having engaged or not engaged in aberrant medication-related behavior. Curtailment and stochastic curtailment were applied to the data in post-hoc simulation. Sensitivity and specificity with respect to the ADBI, as well as average test length, were computed for the full-length test, curtailment, and stochastic curtailment.

RESULTS

The full-length SOAPP-R exhibited a sensitivity of 0.745 and a specificity of 0.671 for predicting the ADBI. Curtailment reduced the average test length by 26% while exhibiting the same sensitivity and specificity as the full-length test. Stochastic curtailment reduced the average test length by as much as 65% while always exhibiting sensitivity and specificity for the ADBI within 0.035 of those of the full-length test.

CONCLUSIONS

Curtailment and stochastic curtailment have potential to improve the SOAPP-R's efficiency in computer-based administrations.

A model to determine colorectal cancer risk using common genetic susceptibility loci

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Risk for colorectal cancer (CRC) can be greatly reduced through screening. To aid in the development of screening strategies, we refined models designed to determine risk of CRC by incorporating information from common genetic susceptibility loci.

METHODS

By using data collected from more than 12,000 participants in 6 studies performed from 1990 through 2011 in the United States and Germany, we developed risk determination models based on sex, age, family history, genetic risk score (number of risk alleles carried at 27 validated common CRC susceptibility loci), and history of endoscopic examinations. The model was validated using data collected from approximately 1800 participants in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial, conducted from 1993 through 2001 in the United States.

RESULTS

We identified a CRC genetic risk score that independently predicted which patients in the training set would develop CRC. Compared with determination of risk based only on family history, adding the genetic risk score increased the discriminatory accuracy from 0.51 to 0.59 (P = .0028) for men and from 0.52 to 0.56 (P = .14) for women. We calculated age- and sex-specific 10-year CRC absolute risk estimates based on the number of risk alleles, family history, and history of endoscopic examinations. A model that included a genetic risk score better determined the recommended starting age for screening in subjects with and without family histories of CRC. The starting age for high-risk men (family history of CRC and genetic risk score, 90%) was 42 years, and for low-risk men (no family history of CRC and genetic risk score, 10%) was 52 years. For men with no family history and a high genetic risk score (90%), the starting age would be 47 years; this is an intermediate value that is 5 years earlier than it would be for men with a genetic risk score of 10%. Similar trends were observed in women.

CONCLUSIONS

By incorporating information on CRC risk alleles, we created a model to determine the risk for CRC more accurately. This model might be used to develop screening and prevention strategies.

Screening for Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma: rationale, recent progress, challenges, and future directions

As the incidence and mortality of esophageal adenocarcinoma continue to increase, strategies to counter this need to be explored. Screening for Barrett's esophagus, which is the known precursor of a large majority of adenocarcinomas, has been debated without a firm consensus. Given evidence for and against perceived benefits of screening, the multitude of challenges in the implementation of such a strategy and in the downstream management of subjects with Barrett's esophagus who could be diagnosed by screening, support for screening has been modest. Recent advances in the form of development and initial accuracy of noninvasive tools for screening, risk assessment tools, and biomarker panels to risk stratify subjects with BE, have spurred renewed interest in the early detection of Barrett's esophagus and related neoplasia, particularly with the advent of effective endoscopic therapy. In this review, we explore in depth the potential rationale for screening for Barrett's esophagus, recent advances that have the potential of making screening feasible, and also highlight some of the challenges that will have to be overcome to develop an effective approach to improve the outcomes of subjects with esophageal adenocarcinoma.

Personalizing colorectal cancer screening: a systematic review of models to predict risk of colorectal neoplasia

BACKGROUND & AIMS

A valid risk prediction model for colorectal neoplasia would allow patients to be screened for colorectal cancer (CRC) on the basis of risk. We performed a systematic review of studies reporting risk prediction models for colorectal neoplasia.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search of MEDLINE, Scopus, and Cochrane Library databases from January 1990 through March 2013 and of references in identified studies. Case-control, cohort, and cross-sectional studies that developed or attempted to validate a model to predict risk of colorectal neoplasia were included. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed model quality. Model quality was considered to be good for studies that included external validation, fair for studies that included internal validation, and poor for studies with neither.

RESULTS

Nine studies developed a new prediction model, and 2 tested existing models. The models varied with regard to population, predictors, risk tiers, outcomes (CRC or advanced neoplasia), and range of predicted risk. Several included age, sex, smoking, a measure of obesity, and/or family history of CRC among the predictors. Quality was good for 6 models, fair for 2 models, and poor for 1 model. The tier with the largest population fraction (low, intermediate, or high risk) depended on the model. For most models that defined risk tiers, the risk difference between the highest and lowest tier ranged from 2-fold to 4-fold. Two models reached the 0.70 threshold for the C statistic, typically considered to indicate good discriminatory power.

CONCLUSIONS

Most current colorectal neoplasia risk prediction models have relatively weak discriminatory power and have not demonstrated generalizability. It remains to be determined how risk prediction models could inform CRC screening strategies.