Effect of basal insulin and omega 3 fatty acids on cognitive impairment in dysglycaemia: An exploratory analysis of the ORIGIN trial

AIM

The outcomes reduction with an initial glargine intervention (ORIGIN) trial reported that, allocation to insulin glargine-mediated normoglycaemia versus standard care, and to omega 3 fatty acids versus placebo had a neutral effect on cognitive test scores when analysed as continuous variables. Analyses of these scores as standardized categorical variables using a previously validated strategy may yield different results.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The ORIGIN trial recruited participants with dysglycaemia and additional cardiovascular risk factors from 573 sites in 40 countries. They completed a mini mental state examination and a subset completed the digit symbol substitution test at baseline and up to three subsequent visits. The effect of the interventions on country-standardized substantive cognitive impairment, defined as the first occurrence of a baseline-adjusted follow-up mini mental state examination or digit symbol substitution test score ≥1.5 standard deviations below the baseline mean score in each participant's country was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 6.2 years, 2627 of 11 682 people (22.5%) developed country-standardized substantive cognitive impairment. The hazard of this outcome was reduced by 9% (hazard ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.85, 0.99; p = .023) in participants assigned to insulin glargine (21.6%) versus standard care (23.3%). Conversely, the hazard of this outcome was not affected by assignment to omega 3 fatty acid versus placebo (hazard ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.86, 1.01; p = .074).

CONCLUSIONS

In this post hoc exploratory analysis, insulin glargine-mediated normoglycaemia but not omega 3 fatty acids reduced the hazard of substantive cognitive impairment in people with dysglycaemia and additional cardiovascular risk factors.

Cardiovascular and renal outcomes with varying degrees of kidney disease in high-risk people with type 2 diabetes: An epidemiological analysis of data from the AMPLITUDE-O trial

AIMS

To estimate the incidence of a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) and a composite kidney outcome across estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) levels, and to determine whether efpeglenatide's effect varies with these indices.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

AMPLITUDE-O trial data were used to estimate the relationship of eGFR, UACR, and Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) category to the hazard of MACE and the kidney composite. Interactions on these outcomes between eGFR and the UACR, and between each of these variables and efpeglenatide were also assessed.

RESULTS

Baseline eGFR and UACR were available for 3983 participants (mean age 64.5 years). During a median follow-up of 1.8 years, the hazards of MACE and the kidney composite for the lowest versus highest eGFR third were 1.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2, 2.2) and 2.3 (95% CI 1.9, 2.8), respectively. The hazards for the highest versus the lowest UACR third were 2.3 (95% CI 1.8, 3.1) and 18.0 (95% CI 12.7, 25.5), respectively, and for the high- versus low-risk KDIGO categories the hazards were 2.4 (95% CI 1.8, 3.1) and 16.0 (95% CI 11.6, 22.0), respectively. eGFR and UACR were independent determinants of both outcomes, but negatively interacted with each other for the kidney outcome. Efpeglenatide's effect on both outcomes did not vary with any kidney disease measure (all interaction p values ≥0.26).

CONCLUSIONS

In high-risk people with diabetes, eGFR, UACR, and KDIGO category have different relationships to incident cardiovascular and kidney outcomes. The beneficial effect of efpeglenatide on these outcomes is independent of kidney-related risk category.

Oral Anticoagulation Use and Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion in LAAOS III

BACKGROUND

LAAOS III (Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion Study III) showed that left atrial appendage (LAA) occlusion reduces the risk of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism in patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing cardiac surgery. This article examines the effect of LAA occlusion on stroke reduction according to variation in the use of oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy.

METHODS

Information regarding OAC use was collected at every follow-up visit. Adjusted proportional hazards modeling, including using landmarks of hospital discharge, 1 and 2 years after randomization, evaluated the effect of LAA occlusion on the risk of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism, according to OAC use. Adjusted proportional hazard modeling, with OAC use as a time-dependent covariate, was also performed to assess the effect of LAA occlusion, according to OAC use throughout the study.

RESULTS

At hospital discharge, 3027 patients (63.5%) were receiving a vitamin K antagonist, and 879 (18.5%) were receiving a non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (direct OAC), with no difference in OAC use between treatment arms. There were 2887 (60.5%) patients who received OACs at all follow-up visits, 1401 (29.4%) who received OAC at some visits, and 472 (9.9%) who never received OACs. The effect of LAA occlusion on the risk of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism was consistent after discharge across all 3 groups: hazard ratios of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.51-0.96), 0.63 (95% CI, 0.43-0.94), and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.32-1.79), respectively. An adjusted proportional hazards model with OAC use as a time-dependent covariate showed that the reduction in stroke or systemic embolism with LAA occlusion was similar whether patients were receiving OACs or not.

CONCLUSIONS

The benefit of LAA occlusion was consistent whether patients were receiving OACs or not. LAA occlusion provides thromboembolism reduction in patients independent of OAC use.

Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence in Patients With Transient New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation Detected During Hospitalization for Noncardiac Surgery or Medical Illness : A Matched Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is often detected for the first time in patients who are hospitalized for another reason. Long-term risks for AF recurrence in these patients are unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate risk for AF recurrence in patients with new-onset AF during a hospitalization for noncardiac surgery or medical illness compared with a matched population without AF.

DESIGN

Matched cohort study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03221777).

SETTING

Three academic hospitals in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

The study enrolled patients hospitalized for noncardiac surgery or medical illness who had transient new-onset AF. For each participant, an age- and sex-matched control participant with no history of AF from the same hospital ward was recruited. All participants left the hospital in sinus rhythm.

MEASUREMENTS

14-day electrocardiographic (ECG) monitor at 1 and 6 months and telephone assessment at 1, 6, and 12 months. The primary outcome was AF lasting at least 30 seconds on the monitor or captured by ECG 12-lead during routine care at 12 months.

RESULTS

Among 139 participants with transient new-onset AF (70 patients with medical illness and 69 surgical patients) and 139 matched control participants, the mean age was 71 years (SD, 10), the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.0 (SD, 1.5), and 59% were male. The median duration of AF during the index hospitalization was 15.8 hours (IQR, 6.4 to 49.6 hours). After 1 year, recurrent AF was detected in 33.1% (95% CI, 25.3% to 40.9%) of participants in the transient new-onset AF group and 5.0% (CI, 1.4% to 8.7%) of matched control participants; after adjustment for the number of ECG monitors worn and for baseline clinical differences, the adjusted relative risk was 6.6 (CI, 3.2 to 13.7). After exclusion of participants who had electrical or pharmacologic cardioversion during the index hospitalization (n = 40) and their matched control participants and limiting to AF events detected by the patch ECG monitor, recurrent AF was detected in 32.3% (CI, 23.1% to 41.5%) of participants with transient new-onset AF and 3.0% (CI, 0% to 6.4%) of matched control participants.

LIMITATIONS

Generalizability is limited, and the study was underpowered to evaluate subgroups and clinical predictors.

CONCLUSION

Among patients who have transient new-onset AF during a hospitalization for noncardiac surgery or medical illness, approximately 1 in 3 will have recurrent AF within 1 year.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Peer-reviewed grants.

Dietary intake and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with chronic vascular disease: insights from the COMPASS trial cohort

AIMS

Patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) are at risk for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and major adverse limb events (MALE). There are limited data regarding dietary patterns and the risk of recurrent MACE and MALE in CAD and PAD patients. We aimed to identify dietary patterns associated with MACE and MALE in patients with CAD and/or PAD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analysed data collected from patients enrolled into the Cardiovascular Outcomes for People Using Anticoagulation Strategies (COMPASS) trial, in which diet was assessed by a short food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) at baseline. Two dietary pattern scores, the modified Alternate Healthy Eating Index (mAHEI) and Mediterranean Diet Score (mMDS), were calculated. We tested the association between mAHEI and mMDS and the incidence of MACE and/or MALE. The mean mAHEI score was 23.0 ± 7.7 (out of 70) overall and was similar comparing CAD and PAD patients. The incidence of MACE or MALE was 6.3% in the lowest diet quality quartile (as assessed by mAHEI) compared with 4.2% in the highest quartile over 30 months. In the fully adjusted model, the hazard ratio of a low diet quality (Quartile 1) compared with the highest (Quartile 4) for MACE or MALE was 1.27 (95% CI: 1.08-1.49; P = 0.004, Q1 vs. Q4). This excess hazard was primarily driven by higher MACE in both the CAD and PAD cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Poor diet quality as assessed by the mAHEI is independently associated with a higher risk of recurrent MACE and MALE in patients with chronic CAD and/or PAD.

Exploring the Relationship Between Efpeglenatide Dose and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes: Insights From the AMPLITUDE-O Trial

BACKGROUND

In the AMPLITUDE-O (Effect of Efpeglenatide on Cardiovascular Outcomes) cardiovascular outcomes trial, adding either 4 mg or 6 mg weekly of the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist efpeglenatide to usual care reduced major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in people with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk. Whether these benefits are dose related remains uncertain.

METHODS

Participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio to placebo, 4 mg or 6 mg of efpeglenatide. The effect of 6 mg versus placebo and of 4 mg versus placebo on MACE (a nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular or unknown causes) and on all the secondary composite cardiovascular and kidney outcomes was assessed. A dose-response relationship was assessed using the χ² statistic for trend.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 1.8 years, MACE occurred in 125 (9.2%) participants assigned to placebo, 84 (6.2%) participants assigned to 6 mg of efpeglenatide (hazard ratio [HR], 0.65 [95% CI, 0.5-0.86]; P=0.0027), and 105 (7.7%) assigned to 4 mg of efpeglenatide (HR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.63-1.06]; P=0.14). Participants receiving high-dose efpeglenatide also experienced fewer secondary outcomes, including the composite of MACE, coronary revascularization, or hospitalization for unstable angina (HR, 0.73 for 6 mg, P=0.011; HR, 0.85 for 4 mg, P=0.17), a kidney composite outcome comprising sustained new macroalbuminuria, a ≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate or renal failure (HR, 0.63 for 6 mg, P<0.0001; HR, 0.73 for 4 mg, P=0.0009), MACE or any death (HR, 0.67 for 6 mg, P=0.0021; HR, 0.81 for 4 mg, P=0.08), a kidney function outcome comprising a sustained ≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate, renal failure, or death (HR, 0.61 for 6 mg, P=0.0072; HR, 0.97 for 4 mg, P=0.83), and the composite of MACE, any death, heart failure hospitalization, or the kidney function outcome (HR, 0.63 for 6 mg, P=0.0002; HR, 0.81 for 4 mg, P=0.067). A clear dose-response was noted for all primary and secondary outcomes (all P for trend <0.012).

CONCLUSIONS

The graded salutary relationship between efpeglenatide dose and cardiovascular outcomes suggests that titrating efpeglenatide and potentially other glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists to high doses may maximize their cardiovascular and renal benefits.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov; Unique identifier: NCT03496298.

Health Status and Cognitive Function for Risk Stratification in Chronic Coronary and Peripheral Artery Disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

It is unclear whether health status and cognitive function assessments can augment traditional coronary artery disease (CAD) and peripheral artery disease (PAD) biomedical risk prediction frameworks. We examined the association between health status and cognitive function and subsequent adverse cardiovascular and limb events in CAD and PAD.

METHODS

Stable CAD and PAD patients from the international, multi-center COMPASS trial completed the visual analogue scale, (VAS) of the EQ-5D-3L to assess overall health status, and the Digit Symbol Substitution test (DSST) to assess cognitive function. Main outcomes were incident development of major adverse cardiovascular events, and the combined endpoint major adverse cardiovascular or limb events. The EQ VAS (per 10 unit increase) and DSST (per 5 unit increase) were added to fully adjusted (medications, demographics, cardiovascular history and risk factors) hierarchical Cox regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 23,433 patients were in the CAD cohort and 6,899 in the PAD cohort. Among both the CAD and PAD groups, higher scores on the EQ VAS (CAD: HR = 0.89, 95%CI 0.88-0.89; PAD HR = 0.89, 95%CI 0.88-0.89) and DSST (CAD HR = 0.95, 95%CI 0.94-0.95) (PAD HR = 0.95, 95%CI 0.94-0.95) were associated with a lower risk of a major adverse cardiovascular or limb events. Population attributable risks associated with the lower two quartiles vs. upper quartiles for the EQ-5D and DSST scores were 7% and 16%, respectively in the CAD cohort; and for PAD, at 14% and 18%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding health status and cognitive functioning information to biomedical evaluations can augment cardiovascular risk-stratification in CAD and PAD.

Does dulaglutide impact a composite outcome reflecting atherosclerosis? A post-hoc analysis of the REWIND trial

Background

It has been postulated that the cardioprotective effect of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) may retard the progression of atherosclerosis.

Purpose

The aim of this post-hoc analysis of the REWIND trial was to test the hypothesis that treatment with dulaglutide impacts a clinical outcome that reflects atherosclerosis in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM).

Methods

In the double-blind, placebo-controlled REWIND trial recruiting 9901 patients (46.3% women, mean age 66 years) with T2DM and cardiovascular disease (CVD) or varying levels of CV risk, a weekly subcutaneous injection of dulaglutide 1.5 mg reduced the hazard of MACE by 12% versus placebo. This post hoc analysis assessed the impact of dulaglutide on atherosclerosis-related outcomes comprising a composite of the first of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal ischaemic stroke and any revascularization including coronary, peripheral or carotid. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the effect of randomized treatment. The effect in selected subgroups (Table 1) was estimated by including each subgroup and an interaction term in the model for the primary outcome. The composite of any component of the primary endpoint and non-cardiovascular death was considered as a secondary outcome.

Results

The primary endpoint occurred in 799 (16.1%) patients in the dulaglutide group and 870 (17.6%) patients in the placebo group (incidence rates: 3.25/100 person-years vs 3.58/100 person-years; HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.83–1.00; p=0.05) during a median follow-up of 5.4 years. This finding was consistent regardless of sex, body mass index, previous CVD or not and diabetes duration. The incidence of the secondary outcome was also lower in the dulaglutide group (HR; 95% CI: 0.91; 0.83–0.99; p=0.03).

Conclusion

Dulaglutide was associated with a 9% reduced index of atherosclerosis in patients with T2DM and CVD or high CV risk. This finding supports the hypothesis that dulaglutide may retard progression of atherosclerosis.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): EliLilly and Company

Rivaroxaban in Rheumatic Heart Disease-Associated Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Testing of factor Xa inhibitors for the prevention of cardiovascular events in patients with rheumatic heart disease-associated atrial fibrillation has been limited.

METHODS

We enrolled patients with atrial fibrillation and echocardiographically documented rheumatic heart disease who had any of the following: a CHA2DS2VASc score of at least 2 (on a scale from 0 to 9, with higher scores indicating a higher risk of stroke), a mitral-valve area of no more than 2 cm2, left atrial spontaneous echo contrast, or left atrial thrombus. Patients were randomly assigned to receive standard doses of rivaroxaban or dose-adjusted vitamin K antagonist. The primary efficacy outcome was a composite of stroke, systemic embolism, myocardial infarction, or death from vascular (cardiac or noncardiac) or unknown causes. We hypothesized that rivaroxaban therapy would be noninferior to vitamin K antagonist therapy. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding according to the International Society of Thrombosis and Hemostasis.

RESULTS

Of 4565 enrolled patients, 4531 were included in the final analysis. The mean age of the patients was 50.5 years, and 72.3% were women. Permanent discontinuation of trial medication was more common with rivaroxaban than with vitamin K antagonist therapy at all visits. In the intention-to-treat analysis, 560 patients in the rivaroxaban group and 446 in the vitamin K antagonist group had a primary-outcome event. Survival curves were nonproportional. The restricted mean survival time was 1599 days in the rivaroxaban group and 1675 days in the vitamin K antagonist group (difference, -76 days; 95% confidence interval [CI], -121 to -31; P<0.001). A higher incidence of death occurred in the rivaroxaban group than in the vitamin K antagonist group (restricted mean survival time, 1608 days vs. 1680 days; difference, -72 days; 95% CI, -117 to -28). No significant between-group difference in the rate of major bleeding was noted.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with rheumatic heart disease-associated atrial fibrillation, vitamin K antagonist therapy led to a lower rate of a composite of cardiovascular events or death than rivaroxaban therapy, without a higher rate of bleeding. (Funded by Bayer; INVICTUS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02832544.).

A novel kidney disease index reflecting both the albumin-to-creatinine ratio and estimated glomerular filtration rate, predicted cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in type 2 diabetes

Background

The estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) are risk factors for diabetes-related outcomes. A composite that captures information from both may provide a simpler way of assessing risk.

Methods

9115 of 9901 Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) participants with both an ACR and eGFR at baseline were included in this post hoc epidemiologic analysis. The hazard of higher baseline levels of 1/eGFR and natural log transformed ACR (calculated as ln [ACR × 100] to eliminate negative values) and their interaction for incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), kidney outcomes, and deaths was estimated. The hazard of the geometric mean of these two baseline measures (the kidney disease index or KDI) was also assessed.

Results

A non-linear relationship was observed between 1/eGFR and all three outcomes, and between ln [ACR × 100] and the kidney outcome. There was also a negative interaction between these two risk factors with respect to MACE and death. Conversely, a linear relationship was noted between the KDI and all three outcomes. People in the highest KDI fifth experienced the highest incidence of MACE, death, and the kidney outcome (4.43, 4.56, and 5.55/100 person-years respectively). C statistics for the KDI were similar to those for eGFR and albuminuria.

Conclusions

The KDI combines the baseline eGFR and ACR into a novel composite risk factor that has a simple linear relationship with incident serious outcomes in people with diabetes and additional CV risk factors.

Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov NCT01394952.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01594-6.

Novel Indices of Cognitive Impairment and Incident Cardiovascular Outcomes in the REWIND Trial

CONTEXT

Low cognitive scores are risk factors for cardiovascular outcomes. Whether this relationship is stronger using novel cognitive indices is unknown.

METHODS

Participants in the Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial who completed both the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) score and Digit Substitution Test (DSST) at baseline (N = 8772) were included. These scores were used to identify participants with baseline substantive cognitive impairment (SCI), defined as a baseline score on either the MoCA or DSST ≥ 1.5 SD below either score's country-specific mean, or SCI-GM, which was based on a composite index of both scores calculated as their geometric mean (GM), and defined as a score that was ≥ 1.5 SD below their country's average GM. Relationships between these measures and incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and either stroke or death were analyzed.

RESULTS

Compared with 7867 (89.7%) unaffected participants, the 905 (10.3%) participants with baseline SCI had a higher incidence of MACE (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.34; 95% CI 1.11, 1.62; P = 0.003), and stroke or death (unadjusted HR 1.60; 95% CI 1.33, 1.91; P < 0.001). Stronger relationships were noted for SCI-GM and MACE (unadjusted HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.28, 2.01; P < 0.001), and stroke or death (unadjusted HR 1.85; 95% CI 1.50, 2.30; P < 0.001). For SCI-GM but not SCI, all these relationships remained significant in models that adjusted for up to 10 SCI risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Country-standardized SCI-GM was a strong independent predictor of cardiovascular events in people with type 2 diabetes in the REWIND trial.

Normal sex and age-specific parameters in a multi-ethnic population: a cardiovascular magnetic resonance study of the Canadian Alliance for Healthy Hearts and Minds cohort

BACKGROUND

Despite the growing utility of cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) for cardiac morphology and function, sex and age-specific normal reference values derived from large, multi-ethnic data sets are lacking. Furthermore, most available studies use a simplified tracing methodology. Using a large cohort of participants without history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or risk factors from the Canadian Alliance for Healthy Heart and Minds, we sought to establish a robust set of reference values for ventricular and atrial parameters using an anatomically correct contouring method, and to determine the influence of age and sex on ventricular parameters.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Participants (n = 3206, 65% females; age 55.2 ± 8.4 years for females and 55.1 ± 8.8 years for men) underwent CMR using standard methods for quantitative measurements of cardiac parameters. Normal ventricular and atrial reference values are provided: (1) for males and females, (2) stratified by four age categories, and (3) for different races/ethnicities. Values are reported as absolute, indexed to body surface area, or height. Ventricular volumes and mass were significantly larger for males than females (p < 0.001). Ventricular ejection fraction was significantly diminished in males as compared to females (p < 0.001). Indexed left ventricular (LV) end-systolic, end-diastolic volumes, mass and right ventricular (RV) parameters significantly decreased as age increased for both sexes (p < 0.001). For females, but not men, mean LV and RVEF significantly increased with age (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Using anatomically correct contouring methodology, we provide accurate sex and age-specific normal reference values for CMR parameters derived from the largest, multi-ethnic population free of CVD to date.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02220582. Registered 20 August 2014-Retrospectively registered, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02220582 .

Incidence and Predictors of Heart Failure in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is a frequent cause of hospitalization and death in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Identifying AF patients at risk of HF hospitalization could help select individuals for intensive follow-up and treatment.

METHODS

We pooled data from 3 randomized trials (ACTIVE-A, RE-LY, AVERROES) of AF patients, for derivation and internal validation of a risk score for first HF hospitalization. Secondary endpoints were cardiovascular death and a composite of HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death.

RESULTS

In 23,503 patients, the mean age was 71.3 years, and 62% were male. Over a mean follow-up of 2.0 years, 875 patients (3.7%) experienced their first HF hospitalization, and 1037 patients (4.4%) died from cardiovascular causes. Incidence rates per 100 patient-years were 1.85 for HF hospitalizations, 2.15 for cardiovascular death, and 3.71 for the composite. Independent predictors for HF hospitalizations included the following: increased age, weight, heart rate and serum creatinine level, lower height and systolic blood pressure, diabetes, vascular disease, valvular disease, heart rhythm, left ventricular hypertrophy, and intraventricular conduction delay. The C-statistic (95% confidence intervals by bootstrap simulations) was 0.717 (0.705-0.732). At 2 years of follow-up, the incidence rate of the primary outcome increased across risk-score quintiles: 0.49, 0.87, 1.29, 2.44, and 4.51 per 100 patient-years, respectively. Patients in the highest quintile had an absolute risk of 6.8% for the primary endpoint at 2 years.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large AF population, new-onset HF was common. A combination of characteristics can identify high-risk patients for whom strategies to prevent HF should be considered.

Psychosocial Risk Factors and Cardiovascular Disease and Death in a Population-Based Cohort From 21 Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries

IMPORTANCE

Stress may increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Most studies on stress and CVD have been conducted in high-income Western countries, but whether stress is associated with CVD in other settings has been less well studied.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association of a composite measure of psychosocial stress and the development of CVD events and mortality in a large prospective study involving populations from 21 high-, middle-, and low-income countries across 5 continents.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This population-based cohort study used data from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study, collected between January 2003 and March 2021. Participants included individuals aged 35 to 70 years living in 21 low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Data were analyzed from April 8 to June 15, 2021.

EXPOSURES

All participants were assessed on a composite measure of psychosocial stress assessed at study entry using brief questionnaires concerning stress at work and home, major life events, and financial stress.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The outcomes of interest were stroke, major coronary heart disease (CHD), CVD, and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 118 706 participants (mean [SD] age 50.4 [9.6] years; 69 842 [58.8%] women and 48 864 [41.2%] men) without prior CVD and with complete baseline and follow-up data were included. Of these, 8699 participants (7.3%) reported high stress, 21 797 participants (18.4%) reported moderate stress, 34 958 participants (29.4%) reported low stress, and 53 252 participants (44.8%) reported no stress. High stress, compared with no stress, was more likely with younger age (mean [SD] age, 48.9 [8.9] years vs 51.1 [9.8] years), abdominal obesity (2981 participants [34.3%] vs 10 599 participants [19.9%]), current smoking (2319 participants [26.7%] vs 10 477 participants [19.7%]) and former smoking (1571 participants [18.1%] vs 3978 participants [7.5%]), alcohol use (4222 participants [48.5%] vs 13 222 participants [24.8%]), and family history of CVD (5435 participants [62.5%] vs 20 255 participants [38.0%]). During a median (IQR) follow-up of 10.2 (8.6-11.9) years, a total of 7248 deaths occurred. During the course of follow-up, there were 5934 CVD events, 4107 CHD events, and 2880 stroke events. Compared with no stress and after adjustment for age, sex, education, marital status, location, abdominal obesity, hypertension, smoking, diabetes, and family history of CVD, as the level of stress increased, there were increases in risk of death (low stress: hazard ratio [HR], 1.09 [95% CI, 1.03-1.16]; high stress: 1.17 [95% CI, 1.06-1.29]) and CHD (low stress: HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.01-1.18]; high stress: HR, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.08-1.42]). High stress, but not low or moderate stress, was associated with CVD (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.08-1.37]) and stroke (HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.09-1.56]) after adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cohort study found that higher psychosocial stress, measured as a composite score of self-perceived stress, life events, and financial stress, was significantly associated with mortality as well as with CVD, CHD, and stroke events.

Efpeglenatide and Clinical Outcomes with and without Concomitant Sodium-Glucose Co-Transporter-2 Inhibition Use in Type 2 Diabetes: Exploratory Analysis of the AMPLITUDE-O Trial

Background: Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) both reduce cardiovascular (CV) events among patients with type 2 diabetes. However, no CV outcome trial has evaluated the long-term effects of their combined use. The AMPLITUDE-O trial reported that once weekly injections of the GLP-1 RA efpeglenatide (vs. placebo) reduced major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE); MACE, coronary revascularization or unstable angina hospitalization (expanded MACE); a renal composite outcome; and MACE or death in people with type 2 diabetes and CV and/or renal disease. The trial uniquely stratified randomization by baseline or anticipated use of SGLT2 inhibitors and included the highest prevalence at baseline (N=618, 15.2%) of SGLT2 inhibitor use among GLP-1 RA CV outcome trials to date. Its results were analyzed to estimate the combined effect of SGLT2 inhibitors and efpeglenatide on clinical outcomes. Methods: Cardiovascular and renal outcomes were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for region, SGLT2 inhibitor randomization strata, and the SGLT2 inhibitor-by-treatment interaction. Continuous variables were analyzed using a mixed-effects models for repeated measures that also included an interaction term. Results: The effect (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]) of efpeglenatide versus placebo in the absence and presence of baseline SGLT2 inhibitors, respectively, on MACE (0.74 [0.58- 0.94] and 0.70 [0.37- 1.30]), expanded MACE (0.77 [0.62- 0.96] and 0.87 [0.51- 1.48]), renal composite (0.70 [0.59- 0.83] and 0.52 [0.33- 0.83]), and MACE or death (0.74 [0.59- 0.93] and 0.65 [0.36- 1.19]) did not differ by baseline SGLT2 inhibitor use (P for all interactions >0.2). Efpeglenatide's reduction of blood pressure, body weight, low density lipoprotein cholesterol and urinary albumin:creatinine ratio also appeared to be independent of concurrent SGLT2 inhibitor use (all interaction P ≥0.08). Finally, adverse events did not differ by baseline SGLT2 inhibitor use. Conclusions: The efficacy and safety of efpeglenatide appear independent of concurrent SGLT2 inhibitor use. These data support combined SGLT2 inhibitor and GLP-1 RA therapy in type 2 diabetes.

Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes with Efpeglenatide in Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUND

Four glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists that are structurally similar to human GLP-1 have been shown to reduce the risk of adverse cardiovascular events among persons with type 2 diabetes. The effect of an exendin-based GLP-1 receptor agonist, efpeglenatide, on cardiovascular and renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes who are also at high risk for adverse cardiovascular events is uncertain.

METHODS

In this randomized, placebo-controlled trial conducted at 344 sites across 28 countries, we evaluated efpeglenatide in participants with type 2 diabetes and either a history of cardiovascular disease or current kidney disease (defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 25.0 to 59.9 ml per minute per 1.73 m² of body-surface area) plus at least one other cardiovascular risk factor. Participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive weekly subcutaneous injections of efpeglenatide at a dose of 4 or 6 mg or placebo. Randomization was stratified according to use of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors. The primary outcome was the first major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE; a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular or undetermined causes).

RESULTS

A total of 4076 participants were enrolled; 2717 were assigned to receive efpeglenatide and 1359 to receive placebo. During a median follow-up of 1.81 years, an incident MACE occurred in 189 participants (7.0%) assigned to receive efpeglenatide (3.9 events per 100 person-years) and 125 participants (9.2%) assigned to receive placebo (5.3 events per 100 person-years) (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58 to 0.92; P<0.001 for noninferiority; P = 0.007 for superiority). A composite renal outcome event (a decrease in kidney function or macroalbuminuria) occurred in 353 participants (13.0%) assigned to receive efpeglenatide and in 250 participants (18.4%) assigned to receive placebo (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.57 to 0.79; P<0.001). Diarrhea, constipation, nausea, vomiting, or bloating occurred more frequently with efpeglenatide than with placebo.

CONCLUSIONS

In this trial involving participants with type 2 diabetes who had either a history of cardiovascular disease or current kidney disease plus at least one other cardiovascular risk factor, the risk of cardiovascular events was lower among those who received weekly subcutaneous injections of efpeglenatide at a dose of 4 or 6 mg than among those who received placebo. (Funded by Sanofi; AMPLITUDE-O ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03496298.).

Clinical factors associated with peripheral artery disease in patients with documented coronary artery disease: A post hoc analysis of the COMPASS trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) who also have peripheral artery disease (PAD) are at high risk of subsequent cardiovascular events and mortality. Despite this, PAD in patients with CAD often remains undiagnosed. The objective of this analysis was to assess clinical factors that predict the presence of PAD in patient with documented CAD who also have PAD.

METHODS

In a post hoc analysis of patients with CAD in the COMPASS trial, we developed separate prediction models for symptomatic lower extremity PAD and documented carotid artery disease (Model 1), asymptomatic lower extremity PAD defined as ABI <0.9 (Model 2) and for any PAD (symptomatic or asymptomatic; Model 3). Using logistic regression models, candidate variables were chosen to predict the presence of PAD. Overall model performance was evaluated for discrimination and calibration using the concordance statistic and Hosmer and Lemeshow Goodness-of-fit chi-square, respectively. The final model was validated by bootstrapping.

RESULTS

Of 23,402 participants, 3484 (14.9%) had a history of symptomatic PAD or carotid artery disease (Model 1), 1422 (5.7%) participants had asymptomatic PAD (Model 2) and 4906 (20.6%) had any PAD (Model 3). Model 1 demonstrated a C-statistic of 0.667 and goodness-of-fit p-value of 0.859. Model 2 demonstrated a C-statistic of 0.626 and goodness-of-fit p-value of 0.250. Model 3 demonstrated a C-statistic of 0.646 and goodness-of-fit p-value of 0.240.

CONCLUSION

Routinely available clinical information is only marginally useful to identify patients with CAD and concomitant PAD.

Rosuvastatin for the prevention of venous thromboembolism: a pooled analysis of the HOPE-3 and JUPITER randomized controlled trials

AIMS

To examine the association between rosuvastatin and VTE risk, and whether effects vary in different subpopulations stratified by key demographic, cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and other risk factors associated with VTE.

METHODS AND RESULTS

An individual participant data meta-analysis was conducted across two randomized controlled trials in 30,507 participants over a mean follow up of 3.62 years, Individuals had no prior history of vascular disease but were at intermediate CV risk. In both trials, participants were randomized to receive rosuvastatin or matching placebo. The primary outcome was VTE during follow-up, defined as either deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism. Associations between rosuvastatin and VTE were examined in the overall pooled cohort, and subpopulations stratified by demographic risk factors (i.e. age, sex), CVD risk factors (i.e. obesity, smoking, lipid levels, blood pressure levels, C-reactive protein level), and a history of cancer.Mean age was 65.96 (SD 7.19) years of age, and 17,832 (58.45%) were male. 5,434 (17.82%) were smokers, median BMI was 27.6 (Interquartile range [IQR] 24.7 - 31.1) kg/m2, and median CRP level was 3.4 (IQR 2.1 - 6.0) mg/L. There were 139 VTE events. In the pooled cohort, rosuvastatin was associated with a large proportional reduction in the risk of VTE (hazard ratio 0.53, 95% CI 0.37 - 0.75). No significant interactions were observed between treatment with rosuvastatin and the risk of VTE across subpopulations stratified by demographic, CVD risk factors or a history of cancer (p-values for interactions >0.05 for all subgroups).

CONCLUSIONS

Rosuvastatin is associated with a 47% proportional reduction in the risk of VTE, and its effect is consistent both in the presence or absence of VTE related clinical risk factors.

TRANSLATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

In this individual participant data meta-analysis of two large randomized controlled trials comparing rosuvastatin to placebo, rosuvastatin was associated with a 47% proportional reduction in the risk of VTE. The effect of rosuvastatin was consistent across a broad range of demographic factors, cardiovascular risk factors, and a history of cancer. This study demonstrates that rosuvastatin is broadly affective at reducing the risk of VTE both in the presence or absence of VTE associated clinical risk factors. Results inform future research on the use of statins for this indication.

Rivaroxaban Plus Aspirin in Obese and Overweight Patients With Vascular Disease in the COMPASS Trial

BACKGROUND

Direct oral anticoagulants are administered in fixed doses irrespective of body weight, but guidelines recommend against their use in patients with extremes of body weight.

OBJECTIVES

This study determined the effects of dual-pathway inhibition antithrombotic regimen (rivaroxaban 2.5 mg twice daily plus aspirin 100 mg/day) compared with aspirin Halone across a range of patient body mass indexes (BMIs) and body weights.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of the COMPASS (Cardiovascular OutcoMes for People using Anticoagulation StrategieS) trial, which included patients with chronic coronary artery disease or peripheral artery disease. Efficacy and safety outcomes were studied in relation to BMI: (normal 18.5 ≤BMI <25 kg/m², overweight 25 ≤BMI <30 kg/m², obese ≥30 kg/m²) and body weight (≤70 kg, 70 < weight ≤90 kg, and >90 kg; as well as ≤120 kg vs. >120 kg).

RESULTS

Among 27,395 randomized patients, 6,459 (24%) had normal BMI, 12,047 (44%) were overweight, and 8,701 (32%) were obese. The combination of rivaroxaban and aspirin compared with aspirin produced a consistent reduction in the primary outcome of cardiovascular death, stroke, or myocardial infarction, irrespective of BMI or body weight. For 18.5 ≤BMI <25 kg/m²: 3.5% vs. 5.0%; hazard ratio (HR): 0.73 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.58 to 0.90); 25 ≤ BMI <30 kg/m²: 4.3% vs. 5.1%; HR: 0.80 (95% CrI: 0.66 to 0.96); BMI ≥30 kg/m²: 4.2% vs. 6.1%; HR: 0.71 (95% CrI: 0.57 to 0.86). For body weight ≤70 kg: 4.1% vs. 5.3%; HR: 0.75 (95% CrI: 0.62 to 0.91); 70 < weight ≤90 kg: 4.1% vs. 5.3%; HR: 0.76 (95% CrI: 0.65 to 0.89); >90 kg: 4.2% vs. 5.7%; HR: 0.74 (95% CrI: 0.61 to 0.90). Effects on bleeding, mortality, and net clinical benefit were consistent irrespective of BMI or bodyweight.

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of dual-pathway antithrombotic therapy are consistent irrespective of BMI or body weight, suggesting no need for dose adjustments in the ranges of weights and BMI of patients enrolled in the COMPASS trial. Further studies need to address this problem in relation to greater extremes of body weight. (Rivaroxaban for the Prevention of Major Cardiovascular Events in Coronary or Peripheral Artery Disease [COMPASS]; NCT01776424).

Diabetes, Brain Infarcts, Cognition, and Small Vessels in the Canadian Alliance for Healthy Hearts and Minds Study

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is a risk factor for cerebrovascular disease and cognitive impairment. The anatomical basis for this is uncertain.

METHODS

The Canadian Alliance for Healthy Hearts and Minds collected brain and carotid magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and 2 cognitive tests (the Digit Symbol Substitution Test and the Montreal Cognitive Assessment test) in a cross-sectional sample of men and women. Brain MRIs identified brain infarcts (BI), lacunar BI, high white matter hyperintensity (WMH), vascular brain injury (VBI; BI or high WMH), and small vessel VBI (lacunar BI or high WMH). Carotid MRIs estimated carotid wall volume, a measure of subclinical atherosclerosis. Cognitive scores were standardized to each site's mean score, and cognitive impairment was identified by 1 or both test scores ≤1 standard deviation below the site's mean score on that test.

RESULTS

The 7733 participants included 495 participants (6.4%) with diabetes, of whom 388 were taking diabetes drugs. After age and sex adjustment, diabetes was independently associated with BI (odds ratio [OR] 1.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05, 2.24), VBI (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.26, 2.13), small vessel VBI (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.28, 2.19), and cognitive impairment (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.20, 1.80). The association between diabetes and small vessel VBI persisted after adjustment for cerebrovascular disease risk factors and nonlacunar infarcts (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.15, 2.01), and the association with cognitive impairment persisted after adjustment for small vessel VBI (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.03, 1.56).

CONCLUSION

Small vessel disease characterizes much of the relationship between diabetes and VBI. However, additional factors are required to disentangle the relationship between diabetes and cognitive impairment.

Plasma ACE2 and risk of death or cardiometabolic diseases: a case-cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) is an endogenous counter-regulator of the renin-angiotensin hormonal cascade. We assessed whether plasma ACE2 concentrations were associated with greater risk of death or cardiovascular disease events.

METHODS

We used data from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) prospective study to conduct a case-cohort analysis within a subset of PURE participants (from 14 countries across five continents: Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, and South America). We measured plasma concentrations of ACE2 and assessed potential determinants of plasma ACE2 levels as well as the association of ACE2 with cardiovascular events.

FINDINGS

We included 10 753 PURE participants in our study. Increased concentration of plasma ACE2 was associated with increased risk of total deaths (hazard ratio [HR] 1·35 per 1 SD increase [95% CI 1·29-1·43]) with similar increases in cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular deaths. Plasma ACE2 concentration was also associated with higher risk of incident heart failure (HR 1·27 per 1 SD increase [1·10-1·46]), myocardial infarction (HR 1·23 per 1 SD increase [1·13-1·33]), stroke (HR 1·21 per 1 SD increase [1·10-1·32]) and diabetes (HR 1·44 per 1 SD increase [1·36-1·52]). These findings were independent of age, sex, ancestry, and traditional cardiac risk factors. With the exception of incident heart failure events, the independent relationship of ACE2 with the clinical endpoints, including death, remained robust after adjustment for BNP. The highest-ranked determinants of ACE2 concentrations were sex, geographic ancestry, and body-mass index (BMI). When compared with clinical risk factors (smoking, diabetes, blood pressure, lipids, and BMI), ACE2 was the highest ranked predictor of death, and superseded several risk factors as a predictor of heart failure, stroke, and myocardial infarction.

INTERPRETATION

Increased plasma ACE2 concentration was associated with increased risk of major cardiovascular events in a global study.

FUNDING

Canadian Institute of Health Research, Heart & Stroke Foundation of Canada, and Bayer.

Ethnic differences in maternal diet in pregnancy and infant eczema

BACKGROUND

The global prevalence of childhood eczema has increased over the last few decades, with a marked increase in high-income countries. Differences in prevalence of childhood eczema between countries and ethnicities suggest that genetic and early modifiable environmental factors, such as dietary intake, may underlie this observation. To investigate the association between pregnancy diet and infant eczema in a consortium of prospective Canadian birth cohorts predominantly comprised of white Europeans and South Asians.

METHODS

We evaluated the association of maternal dietary patterns reported during pregnancy (assessed at 24-28 weeks gestation using a semi-quantitiative food-frequency questionnaire) with parent-reported physician-diagnosed infant eczema at 1-year from 2,160 mother-infant pairs. Using three dietary patterns ("Western", "plant-based", and "Balanced") previously derived in this cohort using principal component analysis, we used multivariable logistic regression to determine the association of these dietary patterns with infant eczema, adjusted for potential confounders.

RESULTS

We observed a lower odds of eczema in the full sample combining white Europeans and South Asians with greater adherence to a plant-based (OR = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.55, 0.76; <0.001) and Western dietary pattern (OR = 0.73; 95% CI: 0.60, 0.89; P<0.01), after adjusting for other known predictors of eczema, including ethnicity, which was not significant. No associations were observed for the balanced diet. An interaction between the Western diet and ethnicity was observed (P<0.001). Following stratification by ethnicity, a protective association between the plant-based diet and infant eczema was confirmed in both white Europeans (OR = 0.59; 95% CI: 0.47, 0.74; P<0.001) and South Asians (OR = 0.77; 95% CI: 0.61, 0.97; P = 0.025). In white Europeans only, a Western diet was associated with a lower odds of infant eczema (OR = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.56, 0.87; P = 0.001) while a balanced diet increased the odds of infant eczema (OR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.49; P = 0.03). Beyond a plant-based diet, no significant associations with other dietary patterns were observed in South Asians.

CONCLUSION

A plant-based diet during pregnancy is associated with a lowered odds of infant eczema at 1 year in all participants. Future studies of the components of plant-based diet which underlie the lower risk of eczema are needed.

Socioeconomic status and risk of cardiovascular disease in 20 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiologic (PURE) study

BACKGROUND

Socioeconomic status is associated with differences in risk factors for cardiovascular disease incidence and outcomes, including mortality. However, it is unclear whether the associations between cardiovascular disease and common measures of socioeconomic status-wealth and education-differ among high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries, and, if so, why these differences exist. We explored the association between education and household wealth and cardiovascular disease and mortality to assess which marker is the stronger predictor of outcomes, and examined whether any differences in cardiovascular disease by socioeconomic status parallel differences in risk factor levels or differences in management.

METHODS

In this large-scale prospective cohort study, we recruited adults aged between 35 years and 70 years from 367 urban and 302 rural communities in 20 countries. We collected data on families and households in two questionnaires, and data on cardiovascular risk factors in a third questionnaire, which was supplemented with physical examination. We assessed socioeconomic status using education and a household wealth index. Education was categorised as no or primary school education only, secondary school education, or higher education, defined as completion of trade school, college, or university. Household wealth, calculated at the household level and with household data, was defined by an index on the basis of ownership of assets and housing characteristics. Primary outcomes were major cardiovascular disease (a composite of cardiovascular deaths, strokes, myocardial infarction, and heart failure), cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Information on specific events was obtained from participants or their family.

FINDINGS

Recruitment to the study began on Jan 12, 2001, with most participants enrolled between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2014. 160 299 (87·9%) of 182 375 participants with baseline data had available follow-up event data and were eligible for inclusion. After exclusion of 6130 (3·8%) participants without complete baseline or follow-up data, 154 169 individuals remained for analysis, from five low-income, 11 middle-income, and four high-income countries. Participants were followed-up for a mean of 7·5 years. Major cardiovascular events were more common among those with low levels of education in all types of country studied, but much more so in low-income countries. After adjustment for wealth and other factors, the HR (low level of education vs high level of education) was 1·23 (95% CI 0·96-1·58) for high-income countries, 1·59 (1·42-1·78) in middle-income countries, and 2·23 (1·79-2·77) in low-income countries (p_interaction<0·0001). We observed similar results for all-cause mortality, with HRs of 1·50 (1·14-1·98) for high-income countries, 1·80 (1·58-2·06) in middle-income countries, and 2·76 (2·29-3·31) in low-income countries (p_interaction<0·0001). By contrast, we found no or weak associations between wealth and these two outcomes. Differences in outcomes between educational groups were not explained by differences in risk factors, which decreased as the level of education increased in high-income countries, but increased as the level of education increased in low-income countries (p_interaction<0·0001). Medical care (eg, management of hypertension, diabetes, and secondary prevention) seemed to play an important part in adverse cardiovascular disease outcomes because such care is likely to be poorer in people with the lowest levels of education compared to those with higher levels of education in low-income countries; however, we observed less marked differences in care based on level of education in middle-income countries and no or minor differences in high-income countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although people with a lower level of education in low-income and middle-income countries have higher incidence of and mortality from cardiovascular disease, they have better overall risk factor profiles. However, these individuals have markedly poorer health care. Policies to reduce health inequities globally must include strategies to overcome barriers to care, especially for those with lower levels of education.

FUNDING

Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Availability and affordability of essential medicines for diabetes across high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

Data are scarce on the availability and affordability of essential medicines for diabetes. Our aim was to examine the availability and affordability of metformin, sulfonylureas, and insulin across multiple regions of the world and explore the effect of these on medicine use.

METHODS

In the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, participants aged 35-70 years (n=156 625) were recruited from 110 803 households, in 604 communities and 22 countries; availability (presence of any dose of medication in the pharmacy on the day of audit) and medicine cost data were collected from pharmacies with the Environmental Profile of a Community's Health audit tool. Our primary analysis was to describe the availability and affordability of metformin and insulin and also commonly used and prescribed combinations of two medicines for diabetes management (two oral drugs, metformin plus a sulphonylurea [either glibenclamide (also known as glyburide) or gliclazide] and one oral drug plus insulin [metformin plus insulin]). Medicines were defined as affordable if the cost of medicines was less than 20% of capacity-to-pay (the household income minus food expenditure). Our analyses included data collected in pharmacies and data from representative samples of households. Data on availability were ascertained during the pharmacy audit, as were data on cost of medications. These cost data were used to estimate the cost of a month's supply of essential medicines for diabetes. We estimated affordability of medicines using income data from household surveys.

FINDINGS

Metformin was available in 113 (100%) of 113 pharmacies from high-income countries, 112 (88·2%) of 127 pharmacies in upper-middle-income countries, 179 (86·1%) of 208 pharmacies in lower-middle-income countries, 44 (64·7%) of 68 pharmacies in low-income countries (excluding India), and 88 (100%) of 88 pharmacies in India. Insulin was available in 106 (93·8%) pharmacies in high-income countries, 51 (40·2%) pharmacies in upper-middle-income countries, 61 (29·3%) pharmacies in lower-middle-income countries, seven (10·3%) pharmacies in lower-income countries, and 67 (76·1%) of 88 pharmacies in India. We estimated 0·7% of households in high-income countries and 26·9% of households in low-income countries could not afford metformin and 2·8% of households in high-income countries and 63·0% of households in low-income countries could not afford insulin. Among the 13 569 (8·6% of PURE participants) that reported a diagnosis of diabetes, 1222 (74·0%) participants reported diabetes medicine use in high-income countries compared with 143 (29·6%) participants in low-income countries. In multilevel models, availability and affordability were significantly associated with use of diabetes medicines.

INTERPRETATION

Availability and affordability of essential diabetes medicines are poor in low-income and middle-income countries. Awareness of these global differences might importantly drive change in access for patients with diabetes.

FUNDING

Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Diagnostic accuracy and yield of screening tests for atrial fibrillation in the family practice setting: a multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Detection of undiagnosed or undertreated ("actionable") atrial fibrillation could increase the use of appropriate oral anticoagulant therapy and reduce the risk of stroke. We sought to compare newer screening technologies with a pulse-check for the detection of atrial fibrillation and to determine whether the detection of actionable atrial fibrillation increases the use of oral anticoagulant agents.

METHODS

This prospective multicentre cohort study involved 22 primary care clinics. We recruited participants aged 65 years and older who were attending routine appointments. Each participant underwent 3 methods of screening: a 30-second radial pulse-check; single-lead electrocardiogram; and screening by blood pressure machine with atrial fibrillation detection algorithms. Participants who received a positive result on 1 or more test underwent 12-lead electrocardiogram with or withour 24-hour Holter. Screening tests were compared using the McNemar test. Participants with confirmed atrial fibrillation received follow-up at 90 days.

RESULTS

The mean age of participants was 73.7 (± 6.9) years, and 53.4% of participants were female. Of 2171 patients, we had data from all 3 screening tests for 2054 patients. Both single-lead electrocardiogram and the blood pressure device showed superior specificity compared with pulse-check (p < 0.001 for each). Fifty-six patients (2.7%) had confirmed atrial fibrillation: 12 patients had newly detected atrial fibrillation (none of the patients were using anticoagulation agents), and 44 patients had previously diagnosed atrial fibrillation (42 patients were receiving anticoagulant therapy, 2 were not). Thus, 14 patients had actionable atrial fibrillation (0.7%). By 90 days, 77% of patients with actionable atrial fibrillation had started anticoagulant therapy.

INTERPRETATION

Newer screening technologies showed superior specificity compared with a pulse-check. Screening detected undiagnosed or undertreated atrial fibrillation in 0.7% of participants, and 77% started appropriate anticoagulant therapy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT02262351.

Comparative effectiveness of transitional care services in patients discharged from the hospital with heart failure: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

AIMS

To compare the effectiveness of transitional care services in decreasing all-cause death and all-cause readmissions following hospitalization for heart failure (HF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We searched PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and Cochrane Clinical Trials Register for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in 2000-2015 that tested the efficacy of transitional care services in patients hospitalized for HF, provided ≥1 month of follow-up, and reported all-cause mortality or all-cause readmissions. Our network meta-analysis included 53 RCTs (12 356 patients). Among services that significantly decreased all-cause mortality compared with usual care, nurse home visits were most effective [ranking P-score 0.6794; relative risk (RR) 0.78, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.62-0.98], followed by disease management clinics (DMCs) (ranking P-score 0.6368; RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.67-0.97). Among services that significantly decreased all-cause readmission, nurse home visits were most effective [ranking P-score 0.8365; incident rate ratio (IRR) 0.65, 95% CI 0.49-0.86], followed by nurse case management (NCM) (ranking P-score 0.6168; IRR 0.77, 95% CI 0.63-0.95), and DMCs (ranking P-score 0.5691; IRR 0.80, 95% CI 0.66-0.97). There was no significant difference in the comparative effectiveness of services that improved each outcome. Nurse home visits had the greatest pooled cost-savings (3810 USD, 95% CI 3682-3937), followed by NCM (3435 USD, 95% CI 3224-3645), and DMCs (245 USD, 95% CI -70 to 559). Telephone, telemonitoring, pharmacist, and education interventions did not significantly improve clinical outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Nurse home visits and DMCs decrease all-cause mortality after hospitalization for HF. Along with NCM, they also reduce all-cause readmissions, with no significant difference in comparative effectiveness. These services reduce healthcare system costs to varying degrees.

Smokeless tobacco use: a meta-analysis of risk and attributable mortality estimates for India

BACKGROUND

Use of smokeless tobacco (SLT) is widely prevalent in India and Indian subcontinent. Cohort and case-control studies in India and elsewhere report excess mortality due to its use.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to estimate the SLT use-attributable deaths in males and females, aged 35 years and older, in India.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Prevalence of SLT use in persons aged 35 years and older was obtained from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey in India and population size and deaths in the relevant age-sex groups were obtained from UN estimates (2010 revision) for 2008. A meta-relative risk (RR) based population attributable fraction was used to estimate attributable deaths in persons aged 35 years and older. A random effects model was used in the meta-analysis on all-cause mortality from SLT use in India including four cohort and one case-control study. The studies included in the meta-analysis were adjusted for smoking, age and education.

RESULTS

The prevalence of SLT use in India was 25.2% for men and 24.5% for women aged 35 years and older. RRs for females and males were 1.34 (1.27-1.42) and 1.17 (1.05-1.42), respectively. The number of deaths attributable to SLT use in India is estimated to be 368127 (217,076 women and 151,051 men), with nearly three-fifth (60%) of these deaths occurring among women.

CONCLUSION

SLT use caused over 350,000 deaths in India in 2010, and nearly three-fifth of SLT use-attributable deaths were among women in India. This calls for targeted public health intervention focusing on SLT products especially among women.

Smoking-attributable mortality in Bangladesh: proportional mortality study

OBJECTIVE

To directly estimate how much smoking contributes to cause-specific mortality in Bangladesh.

METHODS

A case-control study was conducted with surveillance data from Matlab, a rural subdistrict. Cases (n = 2213) and controls (n = 261) were men aged 25 to 69 years who had died between 2003 and 2010 from smoking-related and non-smoking-related causes, respectively. Cause-specific odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for "ever-smokers" versus "never-smokers", with adjustment for education, tobacco chewing status and age. Smoking-attributable deaths among cases, national attributable fractions and cumulative probability of surviving from 25 to 69 years of age among ever-smokers and never-smokers were also calculated.

FINDINGS

The fraction of ever-smokers was about 84% among cases and 73% among controls (OR: 1.7; 99% confidence interval, CI: 1.1-2.5). ORs were highest for cancers and lower for respiratory, vascular and other diseases. A dose-response relationship was noted between age at smoking initiation and daily number of cigarettes or bidis smoked and the risk of death. Among 25-year-old Bangladeshi men, 32% of ever-smokers will die before reaching 70 years of age, compared with 19% of never-smokers. In 2010, about 25% of all deaths observed in Bangladeshi men aged 25 to 69 years (i.e. 42,000 deaths) were attributable to smoking.

CONCLUSION

Smoking causes about 25% of all deaths in Bangladeshi men aged 25 to 69 years and an average loss of seven years of life per smoker. Without a substantial increase in smoking cessation rates, which are low among Bangladeshi men, smoking-attributable deaths in Bangladesh are likely to increase.

21st-century hazards of smoking and benefits of cessation in the United States

BACKGROUND

Extrapolation from studies in the 1980s suggests that smoking causes 25% of deaths among women and men 35 to 69 years of age in the United States. Nationally representative measurements of the current risks of smoking and the benefits of cessation at various ages are unavailable.

METHODS

We obtained smoking and smoking-cessation histories from 113,752 women and 88,496 men 25 years of age or older who were interviewed between 1997 and 2004 in the U.S. National Health Interview Survey and related these data to the causes of deaths that occurred by December 31, 2006 (8236 deaths in women and 7479 in men). Hazard ratios for death among current smokers, as compared with those who had never smoked, were adjusted for age, educational level, adiposity, and alcohol consumption.

RESULTS

For participants who were 25 to 79 years of age, the rate of death from any cause among current smokers was about three times that among those who had never smoked (hazard ratio for women, 3.0; 99% confidence interval [CI], 2.7 to 3.3; hazard ratio for men, 2.8; 99% CI, 2.4 to 3.1). Most of the excess mortality among smokers was due to neoplastic, vascular, respiratory, and other diseases that can be caused by smoking. The probability of surviving from 25 to 79 years of age was about twice as great in those who had never smoked as in current smokers (70% vs. 38% among women and 61% vs. 26% among men). Life expectancy was shortened by more than 10 years among the current smokers, as compared with those who had never smoked. Adults who had quit smoking at 25 to 34, 35 to 44, or 45 to 54 years of age gained about 10, 9, and 6 years of life, respectively, as compared with those who continued to smoke.

CONCLUSIONS

Smokers lose at least one decade of life expectancy, as compared with those who have never smoked. Cessation before the age of 40 years reduces the risk of death associated with continued smoking by about 90%.

Suicide mortality in India: a nationally representative survey

BACKGROUND

WHO estimates that about 170,000 deaths by suicide occur in India every year, but few epidemiological studies of suicide have been done in the country. We aimed to quantify suicide mortality in India in 2010.

METHODS

The Registrar General of India implemented a nationally representative mortality survey to determine the cause of deaths occurring between 2001 and 2003 in 1·1 million homes in 6671 small areas chosen randomly from all parts of India. As part of this survey, fieldworkers obtained information about cause of death and risk factors for suicide from close associates or relatives of the deceased individual. Two of 140 trained physicians were randomly allocated (stratified only by their ability to read the local language in which each survey was done) to independently and anonymously assign a cause to each death on the basis of electronic field reports. We then applied the age-specific and sex-specific proportion of suicide deaths in this survey to the 2010 UN estimates of absolute numbers of deaths in India to estimate the number of suicide deaths in India in 2010.

FINDINGS

About 3% of the surveyed deaths (2684 of 95,335) in individuals aged 15 years or older were due to suicide, corresponding to about 187,000 suicide deaths in India in 2010 at these ages (115,000 men and 72,000 women; age-standardised rates per 100,000 people aged 15 years or older of 26·3 for men and 17·5 for women). For suicide deaths at ages 15 years or older, 40% of suicide deaths in men (45,100 of 114,800) and 56% of suicide deaths in women (40,500 of 72,100) occurred at ages 15-29 years. A 15-year-old individual in India had a cumulative risk of about 1·3% of dying before the age of 80 years by suicide; men had a higher risk (1·7%) than did women (1·0%), with especially high risks in south India (3·5% in men and 1·8% in women). About half of suicide deaths were due to poisoning (mainly ingestions of pesticides).

INTERPRETATION

Suicide death rates in India are among the highest in the world. A large proportion of adult suicide deaths occur between the ages of 15 years and 29 years, especially in women. Public health interventions such as restrictions in access to pesticides might prevent many suicide deaths in India.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health.

Cancer mortality in India: a nationally representative survey

BACKGROUND

The age-specific mortality rates and total deaths from specific cancers have not been documented for the various regions and subpopulations of India. We therefore assessed the cause of death in 2001-03 in homes in small areas that were chosen to be representative of all the parts of India.

METHODS

At least 130 trained physicians independently assigned causes to 122,429 deaths, which occurred in 1·1 million homes in 6671 small areas that were randomly selected to be representative of all of India, based on a structured non-medical surveyor's field report.

FINDINGS

7137 of 122,429 study deaths were due to cancer, corresponding to 556,400 national cancer deaths in India in 2010. 395,400 (71%) cancer deaths occurred in people aged 30-69 years (200,100 men and 195,300 women). At 30-69 years, the three most common fatal cancers were oral (including lip and pharynx, 45,800 [22·9%]), stomach (25,200 [12·6%]), and lung (including trachea and larynx, 22,900 [11·4%]) in men, and cervical (33,400 [17·1%]), stomach (27,500 [14·1%]), and breast (19,900 [10·2%]) in women. Tobacco-related cancers represented 42·0% (84,000) of male and 18·3% (35,700) of female cancer deaths and there were twice as many deaths from oral cancers as lung cancers. Age-standardised cancer mortality rates per 100,000 were similar in rural (men 95·6 [99% CI 89·6-101·7] and women 96·6 [90·7-102·6]) and urban areas (men 102·4 [92·7-112·1] and women 91·2 [81·9-100·5]), but varied greatly between the states, and were two times higher in the least educated than in the most educated adults (men, illiterate 106·6 [97·4-115·7] vs most educated 45·7 [37·8-53·6]; women, illiterate 106·7 [99·9-113·6] vs most educated 43·4 [30·7-56·1]). Cervical cancer was far less common in Muslim than in Hindu women (study deaths 24, age-standardised mortality ratio 0·68 [0·64-0·71] vs 340, 1·06 [1·05-1·08]).

INTERPRETATION

Prevention of tobacco-related and cervical cancers and earlier detection of treatable cancers would reduce cancer deaths in India, particularly in the rural areas that are underserved by cancer services. The substantial variation in cancer rates in India suggests other risk factors or causative agents that remain to be discovered.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and US National Institutes of Health.