Phenotype-based targeted treatment of SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists in type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

A precision medicine approach in type 2 diabetes could enhance targeting specific glucose-lowering therapies to individual patients most likely to benefit. We aimed to use the recently developed Bayesian causal forest (BCF) method to develop and validate an individualised treatment selection algorithm for two major type 2 diabetes drug classes, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA).

METHODS

We designed a predictive algorithm using BCF to estimate individual-level conditional average treatment effects for 12-month glycaemic outcome (HbA1c) between SGLT2i and GLP1-RA, based on routine clinical features of 46,394 people with type 2 diabetes in primary care in England (Clinical Practice Research Datalink; 27,319 for model development, 19,075 for hold-out validation), with additional external validation in 2252 people with type 2 diabetes from Scotland (SCI-Diabetes [Tayside & Fife]). Differences in glycaemic outcome with GLP1-RA by sex seen in clinical data were replicated in clinical trial data (HARMONY programme: liraglutide [n=389] and albiglutide [n=1682]). As secondary outcomes, we evaluated the impacts of targeting therapy based on glycaemic response on weight change, tolerability and longer-term risk of new-onset microvascular complications, macrovascular complications and adverse kidney events.

RESULTS

Model development identified marked heterogeneity in glycaemic response, with 4787 (17.5%) of the development cohort having a predicted HbA1c benefit >3 mmol/mol (>0.3%) with SGLT2i over GLP1-RA and 5551 (20.3%) having a predicted HbA1c benefit >3 mmol/mol with GLP1-RA over SGLT2i. Calibration was good in hold-back validation, and external validation in an independent Scottish dataset identified clear differences in glycaemic outcomes between those predicted to benefit from each therapy. Sex, with women markedly more responsive to GLP1-RA, was identified as a major treatment effect modifier in both the UK observational datasets and in clinical trial data: HARMONY-7 liraglutide (GLP1-RA): 4.4 mmol/mol (95% credible interval [95% CrI] 2.2, 6.3) (0.4% [95% CrI 0.2, 0.6]) greater response in women than men. Targeting the two therapies based on predicted glycaemic response was also associated with improvements in short-term tolerability and long-term risk of new-onset microvascular complications.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Precision medicine approaches can facilitate effective individualised treatment choice between SGLT2i and GLP1-RA therapies, and the use of routinely collected clinical features for treatment selection could support low-cost deployment in many countries.

Vascular endothelial growth factors and risk of cardio-renal events: Results from the CREDENCE trial

BACKGROUND

Circulating concentrations of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) family members may be abnormally elevated in type 2 diabetes (T2D). The roles of placental growth factor (PlGF), soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFLT-1), and VEGF-A in cardio-renal complications of T2D are not established.

METHOD

The 2602 individuals with diabetic kidney disease (DKD) from the Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation trial were randomized to receive canagliflozin or placebo and followed for incident cardio-renal outcomes. PlGF, sFLT-1, and VEGF-A were measured at baseline, year 1, and year 3. Primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease, doubling of the serum creatinine, or renal/cardiovascular death. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to investigate the association between biomarkers with adverse clinical events.

RESULTS

At baseline, individuals with higher PlGF levels had more prevalent cardiovascular disease compared to those with lower values. Treatment with canagliflozin did not meaningfully change PlGF, sFLT-1, and VEGF-A concentrations at years 1 and 3. In a multivariable model, 1 unit increases in baseline log PlGF (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.76, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.23, 2.54, P-value = .002), sFLT-1 (HR: 3.34, [95% CI: 1.71, 6.52], P-value < .001), and PlGF/sFLT-1 ratio (HR: 4.83, [95% CI: 0.86, 27.01], P-value = .07) were associated with primary composite outcome, while 1 unit increase in log VEGF-A did not increase the risk of primary outcome (HR: 0.96 [95% CI: 0.81, 1.07]). Change by 1 year of each biomarker was also assessed: HR (95% CI) of primary composite outcome was 2.45 (1.70, 3.54) for 1 unit increase in 1-year concentration of log PlGF, 4.19 (2.18, 8.03) for 1 unit increase in 1-year concentration of log sFLT-1, and 21.08 (3.79, 117.4) for 1 unit increase in 1-year concentration of log PlGF/sFLT-1. Increase in 1-year concentrations of log VEGF-A was not associated with primary composite outcome (HR: 1.08, [95% CI: 0.93, 1.24], P-value = .30).

CONCLUSIONS

People with T2D and DKD with elevated levels of PlGF, sFLT-1, and PlGF/sFLT-1 ratio were at a higher risk for cardiorenal events. Canagliflozin did not meaningfully decrease concentrations of PlGF, sFLT-1, and VEGF-A.

CLINICAL TRIAL

CREDENCE, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02065791.

Putting More Weight on Obesity Trials in Heart Failure

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To review ongoing and planned clinical trials of weight loss among individuals with or at high risk of heart failure.

RECENT FINDINGS

Intentional weight loss via semaglutide among persons with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction and obesity significantly improves weight loss and health status as assessed by the KCCQ-CSS score and is associated with improvements in 6-min walk test. Ongoing and planned trials will explore the role of intentional weight loss with treatments such as semaglutide or tirzepatide for individuals with heart failure across the entire ejection fraction spectrum.

Natriuretic Peptides and Prognosis in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and High Risk for Cardiovascular Events

BACKGROUND

Prognosis of individuals with and without an established heart failure (HF) diagnosis and similarly elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels is not well known.

METHODS

CANVAS (Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study) trial participants were stratified according to baseline NT-proBNP quartiles and history of HF at baseline. Adjusted event rates per 1000 patient-years follow-up for hospitalizations for HF (HHF), cardiovascular mortality, and kidney events were assessed, and hazard ratios (HR) were calculated using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Of the 3507 participants with available NT-proBNP concentrations, 471 (13.4%) had history of HF. Incidence rate per 1000 patient-years for HHF increased across the NT-proBNP quartiles in patients with (0, 2.8, 13.4 and 40.1; P<0.001) and without (1.8, 3.1, 6.0 and 19.1; P<0.001) HF, with significantly higher risk in patients with HF compared to those without (with HF: quartile 3 HR 9.28 [1.15, 75.05]; P=0.04; without HF: quartile-4 HR 4.86, [2.08, 11.35]; P<0.001). Similar higher risk for kidney events was seen in HF patients (with HF: quartile-4 HR 6.94, [2.66, 18.08]; P=0.001; without HF: quartile-4th HR 4.85 [3.02, 7.80]; P=0.001). Similar trends were seen for cardiovascular mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular risk, an elevated NT-proBNP level was associated with worse HF and kidney outcomes in general regardless of history of HF, however presence of a clinical diagnosis of HF at baseline was associated with incrementally higher risk particularly in higher NT-proBNP quartiles.

Insulin-like growth factor binding protein-7 concentrations in chronic heart failure: Results from the EMPEROR programme

AIMS

Insulin-like growth factor binding protein-7 (IGFBP7) is a biomarker of tissue senescence with a role in cardio-renal pathophysiology. The role of IGFBP7 as a prognostic biomarker across the full ejection fraction (EF) spectrum of heart failure (HF) remains less well understood. We examined associations between IGFBP7 and risk of cardio-renal outcomes regardless of EF and the effect of empagliflozin treatment on IGFBP7 concentrations among individuals with HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

IGFBP7 was measured in 1125 study participants from the EMPEROR-Reduced and EMPEROR-Preserved trials. Cox regression was used to study associations with outcomes. Study participants with IGFBP7 levels in the highest tertile had a higher-risk clinical profile. In Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for clinical variables, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, baseline IGFBP7 values in the highest tertile predicted an increased risk of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death (hazard ratio [HR] 2.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28-3.10, p = 0.002, p for trend <0.001) and higher risk of the renal composite endpoint (HR 4.66, 95% CI 1.61-13.53, p = 0.005, p for trend = 0.001), regardless of EF. Empagliflozin reduced risk for cardiovascular death/HF hospitalization irrespective of baseline IGFBP7 (p for trend across IGFBP7 tertiles = 0.26). Empagliflozin treatment was not associated with meaningful change in IGFBP7 at 12 or 52 weeks.

CONCLUSION

Across the entire left ventricular EF spectrum in the EMPEROR Programme, concentrations of the senescence-associated biomarker IGFBP7 were associated with higher risk clinical status and predicted adverse cardio-renal outcomes even in models adjusted for conventional biomarkers. Empagliflozin did not significantly affect IGFBP7 levels over time.

Genome-wide characterization of circulating metabolic biomarkers

Genome-wide association analyses using high-throughput metabolomics platforms have led to novel insights into the biology of human metabolism1-7. This detailed knowledge of the genetic determinants of systemic metabolism has been pivotal for uncovering how genetic pathways influence biological mechanisms and complex diseases8-11. Here we present a genome-wide association study for 233 circulating metabolic traits quantified by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy in up to 136,016 participants from 33 cohorts. We identify more than 400 independent loci and assign probable causal genes at two-thirds of these using manual curation of plausible biological candidates. We highlight the importance of sample and participant characteristics that can have significant effects on genetic associations. We use detailed metabolic profiling of lipoprotein- and lipid-associated variants to better characterize how known lipid loci and novel loci affect lipoprotein metabolism at a granular level. We demonstrate the translational utility of comprehensively phenotyped molecular data, characterizing the metabolic associations of intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy. Finally, we observe substantial genetic pleiotropy for multiple metabolic pathways and illustrate the importance of careful instrument selection in Mendelian randomization analysis, revealing a putative causal relationship between acetone and hypertension. Our publicly available results provide a foundational resource for the community to examine the role of metabolism across diverse diseases.

5-year follow-up of the randomised Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) of continued support for weight loss maintenance in the UK: an extension study

BACKGROUND

In DiRECT, a randomised controlled effectiveness trial, weight management intervention after 2 years resulted in mean weight loss of 7·6 kg, with 36% of participants in remission of type 2 diabetes. Of 36 in the intervention group who maintained over 10 kg weight loss at 2 years, 29 (81%) were in remission. Continued low-intensity dietary support was then offered up to 5 years from baseline to intervention participants, aiming to maintain weight loss and gain clinical benefits. This extension study was designed to provide observed outcomes at 5 years.

METHODS

The DiRECT trial took place in primary care practices in the UK. Participants were individuals aged 20-65 years who had less than 6 years' duration of type 2 diabetes, a BMI greater than 27 kg/m2, and were not on insulin. The intervention consisted of withdrawal of antidiabetic and antihypertensive drugs, total diet replacement (825-853 kcal per day formula diet for 12-20 weeks), stepped food reintroduction (2-8 weeks), and then structured support for weight-loss maintenance. After sharing the 2-year results with all participants, UK National Health Service data were collected annually until year 5 from remaining intervention participants who received low-intensity dietary support, intervention withdrawals, and the original randomly allocated groups. The primary outcome was remission of type 2 diabetes; having established in the DiRECT trial that sustained weight loss was the dominant driver of remission, this was assumed for the Extension study. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number 03267836.

FINDINGS

Between July 25, 2014, and Aug 5, 2016, 149 participants were randomly assigned to the intervention group and 149 were assigned to the control group in the original DiRECT study. After 2 years, all intervention participants still in the trial (101 [68%] of 149) were approached to receive low-intensity support for a further 3 years. 95 (94%) of 101 were able to continue and consented and were allocated to the DiRECT extension group. 54 participants were allocated to the non-extension group, where intervention was withdrawn. At 5 years, DiRECT extension participants (n=85) lost an average of 6·1 kg, with 11 (13%) of 85 in remission. Compared with the non-extension group, DiRECT extension participants had more visits with HbA1c <48 mmol/mol (<6·5%; 36% vs 17%, p=0·0004), without glucose-lowering medication (62% vs 30%, p<0·0001), and in remission (34% vs 12%, p<0·0001). Original control participants (n=149) had mean weight loss 4·6 kg (n=82), and 5 (5%) of 93 were in remission. Compared with control participants, original intervention participants had more visits with weight more than 5% below baseline (61% vs 29%, p<0·0001), HbA1c below 48 mmol/mol (29% vs 15%, p=0·0002), without antidiabetic medication (51% vs 16%, p<0·0001), and in remission (27% vs 4%, p<0·0001). Of those in remission at year 2, 26% remained in remission at 5 years. Serious adverse events in the original intervention group (4·8 events per 100 patient-years) were under half those in the control group (10·2 per 100 patient-years, p=0·0080).

INTERPRETATION

The extended DiRECT intervention was associated with greater aggregated and absolute weight loss, and suggested improved health status over 5 years.

FUNDING

Diabetes UK.

Effectiveness of lifestyle interventions/culturally bespoke programmes in South Asian ethnic groups targeting weight loss for prevention and/or remission of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of intervention trials

BACKGROUND

People from South Asian heritage are at high risk of type 2 diabetes, but there are limited specific strategies to prevent and manage this condition. The aim was to assess the effectiveness of culturally bespoke lifestyle programmes in South Asians that target weight loss for the prevention or remission of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of intervention trials. PubMed, Scopus, MEDLINE (EBSCOhost), CINAHL, PsycINFO and CENTRAL were searched. Human intervention trials (randomised controlled trials and quasi-experimental) investigating the effect of lifestyle interventions on the prevention and remission of T2DM in South Asians were included. Studies including participants at risk of T2DM (prevention trials) and having the disease (remission trials) with duration ≥12 weeks were eligible. For prevention trials, the primary outcome was change in weight (kg) from baseline; for remission trials, it was decrease in HbA1c to non-diabetic levels (HbA1c ≤ 6.5%) without diabetes medications. Prevention trials were separated into (i) lifestyle modification advice and (ii) lifestyle modification advice including a supervised physical activity programme.

RESULTS

Twenty-four trials were eligible (21 prevention trials and 3 remission trials). In T2DM prevention trials involving only lifestyle modification advice, the mean postintervention difference in weight between intervention and control groups was -0.65 kg (95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.04, -0.26; p = 0.01). Lifestyle modification advice including a physical activity programme was associated with greater decreases in weight: -1.13 kg (95% CI: -2.04, -0.21; p = 0.02). Fasting blood glucose levels were slightly lower in intervention groups for both intervention subtypes, although there was no significant change in HbA1c levels or 2-h plasma glucose levels. Diabetes remission trials showed potential acceptability but were limited in number and involved a small sample size, and some did not include a control group.

CONCLUSIONS

In South Asians, lifestyle interventions for prevention of T2DM offer only modest impacts on weight and glucose control and will unlikely reduce diabetes incidence. Alternative lifestyle interventions co-designed with members of the communities and aimed at both prevention and remission of T2DM must be urgently considered. Systematic review registration number: PROSPERO CRD42022385174 https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=385174.

Associations of Angiopoietin 2 and Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor-A Concentrations with Clinical End Points

BACKGROUND

Angiopoietin 2 regulates endothelial function partially mediated by vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A) and may play a role in diabetic kidney disease (DKD). We assessed the association of angiopoietin 2 and VEGF-A with cardiorenal outcomes and investigated the effect of canagliflozin on angiopoietin 2 and VEGF-A concentrations.

METHODS

Two thousand five hundred sixty-five study participants with DKD and available plasma samples treated with canagliflozin or placebo in the Canagliflozin and Kidney Events in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation (CREDENCE) trial were included. Angiopoietin 2 and VEGF-A concentrations were measured at baseline, year 1, and year 3. The primary composite end point of the trial was a composite of kidney failure, doubling of the serum creatinine level, and kidney or cardiovascular death.

RESULTS

Patients with the highest baseline quartile of angiopoietin 2, but not VEGF-A, concentration had the highest risk clinical profile. Treatment with canagliflozin significantly lowered concentrations of angiopoietin 2 (adjusted geometric mean ratio: 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 0.95; P < 0.001), but not VEGF-A. In multivariable-adjusted modeling, each 50% increment in log baseline angiopoietin 2 concentrations was associated with a higher risk of primary composite outcome (hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.13 to 1.43). Angiopoietin 2 change at year 1 compared with baseline explained 10% of the effect of canagliflozin on the primary composite outcome. VEGF-A concentrations were not associated with outcomes, alone or in combination with angiopoietin 2.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher angiopoietin 2 levels were associated with cardiorenal risk among individuals with DKD independent of VEGF-A. Canagliflozin lowered angiopoietin 2 concentrations.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME AND REGISTRATION NUMBER

Evaluation of the Effects of Canagliflozin on Renal and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Participants With Diabetic Nephropathy, NCT02065791 .

Ongoing burden and recent trends in severe hospitalised hypoglycaemia events in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Scotland: A nationwide cohort study 2016-2022

AIMS

We examined severe hospitalised hypoglycaemia (SHH) rates in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Scotland during 2016-2022, stratifying by sociodemographics.

METHODS

Using the Scottish National diabetes register (SCI-Diabetes), we identified people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes alive anytime during 2016-2022. SHH events were determined through linkage to hospital admission and death registry data. We calculated annual SHH rates overall and by age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Summary estimates of time and stratum effects were obtained by fitting adjusted generalised additive models using R package mgcv.

RESULTS

Rates for those under 20 with type 1 diabetes reached their minimum at the 2020-2021 transition, 30% below the study period average. A gradual decline over time also occurred among 20-49-year-olds with type 1 diabetes. Overall, females had 15% higher rates than males with type 2 diabetes (rate ratio 1.15, 95% CI 1.08-1.22). People in the most versus least deprived quintile experienced 2.58 times higher rates (95% CI 2.27-2.93) in type 1 diabetes and 2.33 times higher (95% CI 2.08-2.62) in type 2 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite advances in care, SHH remains a significant problem in diabetes. Future efforts must address the large socioeconomic disparities in SHH risks.

Cardiovascular and Kidney Risks in Individuals With Type 2 Diabetes: Contemporary Understanding With Greater Emphasis on Excess Adiposity

In high-income countries, rates of atherosclerotic complications in type 2 diabetes have declined markedly over time due to better management of traditional risk factors including lipids, blood pressure, and glycemia levels. Population-wide reductions in smoking have also helped lower atherosclerotic complications and so reduce premature mortality in type 2 diabetes. However, as excess adiposity is a stronger driver for heart failure (HF), and obesity levels have remained largely unchanged, HF risks have not declined as much and may even be rising in the increasing number of people developing type 2 diabetes at younger ages. Excess weight is also an underrecognized risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD). Based on evidence from a range of sources, we explain how excess adiposity must be influencing most risks well before diabetes develops, particularly in younger-onset diabetes, which is linked to greater excess adiposity. We also review potential mechanisms linking excess adiposity to HF and CKD and speculate on how some of the responsible pathways-e.g., hemodynamic, cellular overnutrition, and inflammatory-could be favorably influenced by intentional weight loss (via lifestyle or drugs). On the basis of available evidence, we suggest that the cardiorenal outcome benefits seen with sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors may partially derive from their interference of some of these same pathways. We also note that many other complications common in diabetes (e.g., hepatic, joint disease, perhaps mental health) are also variably linked to excess adiposity, the aggregated exposure to which has now increased in type 2 diabetes. All such observations suggest a greater need to tackle excess adiposity earlier in type 2 diabetes.

Body mass index and cardiorenal outcomes in the EMPEROR-Preserved trial: Principal findings and meta-analysis with the DELIVER trial

AIMS

Both low and high body mass index (BMI) are associated with poor heart failure outcomes. Whether BMI modifies benefits of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) requires further investigation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using EMPEROR-Preserved data, the effects of empagliflozin versus placebo on the risks for the primary outcome (hospitalization for heart failure [HHF] or cardiovascular [CV] death), change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slopes, change in Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire clinical summary score (KCCQ-CSS), and secondary outcomes across baseline BMI categories (<25 kg/m2, 25 to <30 kg/m2, 30 to <35 kg/m2, 35 to <40 kg/m2 and ≥40 kg/m2) were examined, and a meta-analysis conducted with DELIVER. Forty-five percent had a BMI of ≥30 kg/m2. For the primary outcome, there was a consistent treatment effect of empagliflozin versus placebo across the BMI categories with no formal interaction (p trend = 0.19) by BMI categories. There was also no difference in the effects on secondary outcomes including total HHF (p trend = 0.19), CV death (p trend = 0.20), or eGFR slope with slower declines with empagliflozin regardless of BMI (range 1.12-1.71 ml/min/1.73 m2 relative to placebo, p trend = 0.85 for interaction), though there was no overall impact on the composite renal endpoint. The difference in weight change between empagliflozin and placebo was -0.59, -1.48, -1.54, -0.87, and - 2.67 kg in the lowest to highest BMI categories (p trend = 0.016 for interaction). A meta-analysis of data from EMPEROR-Preserved and DELIVER showed a consistent effect of SGLT2i versus placebo across BMI categories for the outcome of HHF or CV death. There was a trend toward greater absolute KCCQ-CSS benefit at 32 weeks with empagliflozin at higher BMIs (p = 0.08).

CONCLUSIONS

Empagliflozin treatment resulted in broadly consistent cardiac effects across the range of BMI in patients with HFpEF. SGLT2i treatment yields benefit in patients with HFpEF regardless of baseline BMI.

Cardiovascular and renal outcomes with varying degrees of kidney disease in high-risk people with type 2 diabetes: An epidemiological analysis of data from the AMPLITUDE-O trial

AIMS

To estimate the incidence of a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) and a composite kidney outcome across estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) levels, and to determine whether efpeglenatide's effect varies with these indices.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

AMPLITUDE-O trial data were used to estimate the relationship of eGFR, UACR, and Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) category to the hazard of MACE and the kidney composite. Interactions on these outcomes between eGFR and the UACR, and between each of these variables and efpeglenatide were also assessed.

RESULTS

Baseline eGFR and UACR were available for 3983 participants (mean age 64.5 years). During a median follow-up of 1.8 years, the hazards of MACE and the kidney composite for the lowest versus highest eGFR third were 1.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2, 2.2) and 2.3 (95% CI 1.9, 2.8), respectively. The hazards for the highest versus the lowest UACR third were 2.3 (95% CI 1.8, 3.1) and 18.0 (95% CI 12.7, 25.5), respectively, and for the high- versus low-risk KDIGO categories the hazards were 2.4 (95% CI 1.8, 3.1) and 16.0 (95% CI 11.6, 22.0), respectively. eGFR and UACR were independent determinants of both outcomes, but negatively interacted with each other for the kidney outcome. Efpeglenatide's effect on both outcomes did not vary with any kidney disease measure (all interaction p values ≥0.26).

CONCLUSIONS

In high-risk people with diabetes, eGFR, UACR, and KDIGO category have different relationships to incident cardiovascular and kidney outcomes. The beneficial effect of efpeglenatide on these outcomes is independent of kidney-related risk category.

Effects of statin therapy on diagnoses of new-onset diabetes and worsening glycaemia in large-scale randomised blinded statin trials: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous meta-analyses of summary data from randomised controlled trials have shown that statin therapy increases the risk of diabetes, but less is known about the size or timing of this effect, or who is at greatest risk. We aimed to address these gaps in knowledge through analysis of individual participant data from large, long-term, randomised, double-blind trials of statin therapy.

METHODS

We conducted a meta-analysis of individual participant data from randomised controlled trials of statin therapy that participated in the CTT Collaboration. All double-blind randomised controlled trials of statin therapy of at least 2 years' scheduled duration and with at least 1000 participants were eligible for inclusion in this meta-analysis. All recorded diabetes-related adverse events, treatments, and measures of glycaemia were sought from eligible trials. Meta-analyses assessed the effects of allocation to statin therapy on new-onset diabetes (defined by diabetes-related adverse events, use of new glucose-lowering medications, glucose concentrations, or HbA1c values) and on worsening glycaemia in people with diabetes (defined by complications of glucose control, increased use of glucose-lowering medication, or HbA1c increase of ≥0·5%). Standard inverse-variance-weighted meta-analyses of the effects on these outcomes were conducted according to a prespecified protocol.

FINDINGS

Of the trials participating in the CTT Collaboration, 19 trials compared statin versus placebo (123 940 participants, 25 701 [21%] with diabetes; median follow-up of 4·3 years), and four trials compared more versus less intensive statin therapy (30 724 participants, 5340 [17%] with diabetes, median follow-up of 4·9 years). Compared with placebo, allocation to low-intensity or moderate-intensity statin therapy resulted in a 10% proportional increase in new-onset diabetes (2420 of 39 179 participants assigned to receive a statin [1·3% per year] vs 2214 of 39 266 participants assigned to receive placebo [1·2% per year]; rate ratio [RR] 1·10, 95% CI 1·04-1·16), and allocation to high-intensity statin therapy resulted in a 36% proportional increase (1221 of 9935 participants assigned to receive a statin [4·8% per year] vs 905 of 9859 participants assigned to receive placebo [3·5% per year]; 1·36, 1·25-1·48). For each trial, the rate of new-onset diabetes among participants allocated to receive placebo depended mostly on the proportion of participants who had at least one follow-up HbA1c measurement; this proportion was much higher in the high-intensity than the low-intensity or moderate-intensity trials. Consequently, the main determinant of the magnitude of the absolute excesses in the two types of trial was the extent of HbA1c measurement rather than the proportional increase in risk associated with statin therapy. In participants without baseline diabetes, mean glucose increased by 0·04 mmol/L with both low-intensity or moderate-intensity (95% CI 0·03-0·05) and high-intensity statins (0·02-0·06), and mean HbA1c increased by 0·06% (0·00-0·12) with low-intensity or moderate-intensity statins and 0·08% (0·07-0·09) with high-intensity statins. Among those with a baseline measure of glycaemia, approximately 62% of new-onset diabetes cases were among participants who were already in the top quarter of the baseline distribution. The relative effects of statin therapy on new-onset diabetes were similar among different types of participants and over time. Among participants with baseline diabetes, the RRs for worsening glycaemia were 1·10 (1·06-1·14) for low-intensity or moderate-intensity statin therapy and 1·24 (1·06-1·44) for high-intensity statin therapy compared with placebo.

INTERPRETATION

Statins cause a moderate dose-dependent increase in new diagnoses of diabetes that is consistent with a small upwards shift in glycaemia, with the majority of new diagnoses of diabetes occurring in people with baseline glycaemic markers that are close to the diagnostic threshold for diabetes. Importantly, however, any theoretical adverse effects of statins on cardiovascular risk that might arise from these small increases in glycaemia (or, indeed, from any other mechanism) are already accounted for in the overall reduction in cardiovascular risk that is seen with statin therapy in these trials. These findings should further inform clinical guidelines regarding clinical management of people taking statin therapy.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Effects of long-term HbA1c variability on serious infection risks in patients with type 2 diabetes and the influence of age, sex and ethnicity: A cohort study of primary care data

AIMS

Long-term HbA1c (glycated haemoglobin) variability is associated with micro- and macrovascular complications in Type 2 diabetes (T2D). We explored prospective associations between HbA1c variability and serious infections, and how these vary by HbA1c level, age, sex and ethnicity.

METHODS

411,963 T2D patients in England, aged 18-90, alive on 01/01/2015 in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink with ≥ 4 HbA1c measurements during 2011-14. Poisson regression estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for infections requiring hospitalisation during 2015-19 by HbA1c variability score (HVS) and average level, adjusting for confounders, and stratified by age, sex, ethnicity and average level. Attributable risk fractions (AF) were calculated using reference categories for variability (HVS < 20) and average level (42-48 mmol/mol).

RESULTS

An increased infection risk (IRR > 1.2) was seen with even modest variability (HVS ≥ 20, 73 % of T2D patients), but only at higher average levels (≥64 mmol/mol, 27 % patients). Estimated AFs were markedly greater for variability than average level (17.1 % vs. 4.1 %). Associations with variability were greater among older patients, and those with lower HbA1c levels, but not observed among Black ethnicities.

CONCLUSIONS

HbA1c variability between T2D patients' primary care visits appears to be associated with more serious infections than average level overall. Well-designed trials could test whether these associations are causal.

Genetic evidence for distinct biological mechanisms that link adiposity to type 2 diabetes: towards precision medicine

We aimed to unravel the mechanisms connecting adiposity to type 2 diabetes. We employed MR-Clust to cluster independent genetic variants associated with body fat percentage (388 variants) and BMI (540 variants) based on their impact on type 2 diabetes. We identified five clusters of adiposity-increasing alleles associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk (unfavorable adiposity) and three clusters associated with lower risk (favorable adiposity). We then characterized each cluster based on various biomarkers, metabolites and Magnetic Resonance Imaging-based measures of fat distribution and muscle quality. Analyzing the metabolic signatures of these clusters revealed two primary mechanisms connecting higher adiposity to reduced type 2 diabetes risk. The first involves higher adiposity in subcutaneous tissues (abdomen and thigh), lower liver fat, improved insulin sensitivity, and decreased risk of cardiometabolic diseases and diabetes complications. The second mechanism is characterized by increased body size, enhanced muscle quality, with no impact on cardiometabolic outcomes. Furthermore, our findings unveil diverse mechanisms linking higher adiposity to higher disease risk, such as cholesterol pathways or inflammation. These results reinforce the existence of adiposity-related mechanisms that may act as protective factors against type 2 diabetes and its complications, especially when accompanied by reduced ectopic liver fat.

Lifetime and 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with type 1 diabetes: The LIFE-T1D model

AIMS

To develop and externally validate the LIFE-T1D model for the estimation of lifetime and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 1 diabetes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A sex-specific competing risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model was derived in individuals with type 1 diabetes without prior CVD from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR), using age as the time axis. Predictors included age at diabetes onset, smoking status, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, glycated haemoglobin level, estimated glomerular filtration rate, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albuminuria and retinopathy. The model was externally validated in the Danish Funen Diabetes Database (FDDB) and the UK Biobank.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 11.8 years (interquartile interval 6.1-17.1 years), 4608 CVD events and 1316 non-CVD deaths were observed in the NDR (n = 39 756). The internal validation c-statistic was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-0.85) and the external validation c-statistics were 0.77 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) for the FDDB (n = 2709) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.77) for the UK Biobank (n = 1022). Predicted risks were consistent with the observed incidence in the derivation and both validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The LIFE-T1D model can estimate lifetime risk of CVD and CVD-free life expectancy in individuals with type 1 diabetes without previous CVD. This model can facilitate individualized CVD prevention among individuals with type 1 diabetes. Validation in additional cohorts will improve future clinical implementation.

Carbohydrate antigen 125 concentrations across the ejection fraction spectrum in chronic heart failure: The EMPEROR programme

AIM

Vascular congestion may lead to an increase of carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA-125). The role of CA-125 as a biomarker of congestion or for prognosis across the full ejection fraction (EF) spectrum of chronic heart failure (HF) remains unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Serum CA-125 was measured in 1111 study participants from the EMPEROR-Reduced and EMPEROR-Preserved trials. Congestive signs and symptoms were evaluated across CA-125 tertiles. Cox regression was used to study the association with outcomes. The primary outcome was a composite of first HF hospitalization or cardiovascular (CV) death. No significant association was present between baseline CA-125 levels and congestive signs or symptoms. In the overall population, higher CA-125 levels were not associated with an increased risk of primary outcome (tertile 3 vs. tertile 1: hazard ratio [HR] 1.34; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.91-1.96; p-trend = 0.11). However, higher CA-125 levels were associated with an increased risk of primary outcome in patients with HF and reduced EF (HFrEF; tertile 3 vs. tertile 1: HR 2.25 [95% CI 1.30-3.89]), but not among patients with preserved EF (HFpEF; tertile 3 vs. tertile 1: HR 0.68 [95% CI 0.38-1.21]); interaction-p = 0.02). Patients in the upper CA-125 tertile also showed the steepest estimated glomerular filtration rate decline over time (p-trend = 0.03). The effect of empagliflozin to reduce the risk of CV death or HF hospitalization appeared to be attenuated in those with lower baseline CA-125 levels (interaction-p-trend = 0.09).

CONCLUSION

Across the range of EF in patients with chronic HF enrolled in the EMPEROR trials, the majority of whom did not have clinical evidence of congestion, CA-125 concentrations were not significantly associated with congestive signs or symptoms. CA-125 concentrations may predict HF hospitalization/CV death in patients with HFrEF, but not those with HFpEF.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

EMPEROR-Reduced (NCT03057977), EMPEROR-Preserved (NCT03057951).

Worth Their Weight? An Update on New and Emerging Pharmacologic Agents for Obesity and Their Potential Role for Persons with Cardiac Conditions

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Obesity is associated with cardiovascular (CV) conditions, including but not limited to atherosclerotic disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation. Despite this, the impact of intentional weight loss on CV outcomes for persons with obesity and established CV conditions remains poorly studied. New and emerging pharmacologic therapies for weight loss primarily targeting the incretin/nutrient sensing axes induce substantial and sustained weight loss. The glucagon-like-peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) liraglutide and semaglutide have US FDA approval for the treatment of obesity, and the application for an obesity indication for the dual GLP-1/glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) receptor agonist tirzepatide is presently under FDA review. Extensive phase II and IIIa randomized controlled trials are underway evaluating permutations of combined GLP-1 RA, GIP receptor agonist, GIP receptor antagonist, and glucagon receptor agonists. Clinical outcome trials of these therapies in persons with obesity at high risk of established CV conditions should make it possible to estimate the role of intentional weight loss in managing CV risk via these medications.

RECENT FINDINGS

High-dose once weekly injectable semaglutide (2.4 mg/week) use among persons with obesity and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction was effective at both reducing weight and improving health status; exercise capacity was also improved. Ongoing CV outcome trials of oral semaglutide and once weekly injectable tirzepatide will help to establish the role of these therapies among persons with other CV conditions. In addition to these two therapies targeting a CV claim or indication, many other new therapeutics for weight loss, as reviewed, are currently in development. The impact of pharmacologic-induced weight loss on CV conditions for persons with obesity and established CV conditions is currently under investigation for multiple agents. These therapies may offer new avenues to manage CV risk in persons with obesity and with established or at high risk for CV disease.

Gout and incidence of 12 cardiovascular diseases: a case-control study including 152 663 individuals with gout and 709 981 matched controls

BACKGROUND

Gout, a common crystal arthropathy, is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. We aimed to identify how this risk varies by individual cardiovascular disease across a broad spectrum of conditions.

METHODS

In this matched case-control study, we used linked primary and secondary electronic health records from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink to assemble a cohort of individuals with a first-time diagnosis of gout between Jan 1, 2000 and Dec 31, 2017, who were aged 80 years or younger at diagnosis, and free of cardiovascular diseases up to 12 months after diagnosis. The control cohort comprised up to five control individuals per patient with gout, matched on age, sex, socioeconomic status, geographical region, and calendar time, randomly selected among individuals free of gout at any time before and during the study period. The cohorts were followed up until June 30, 2019. We investigated the incidence of 12 cardiovascular diseases and used Cox proportional hazards models to examine differences in people with and without gout, overall and by subgroups of sex, age, socioeconomic status, and year of study inclusion. We further adjusted models for known cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, BMI, smoking status, cholesterol, type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and history of hypertension).

FINDINGS

We identified 152 663 individuals with gout (mean age 56·2 years [SD 13·3]; 120 324 [78·8%] men and 32 339 [21·2%] women) and 709 981 matched controls (mean age 56·5 years [13·2]; 561 002 [79·0%] men and 148 979 [21·0%] women). Of these individuals, 31 479 (20·6%) with gout and 106 520 (15·0%) without gout developed cardiovascular disease during a median follow-up of 6·5 years (IQR 3·1-10·5). Patients with gout had higher risk of cardiovascular diseases than matched controls (hazard ratio [HR] 1·58 [95% CI 1·52-1·63]). Excess risk of cardiovascular disease in gout was greater in women than men (women: HR 1·88 [1·75-2·02]; men: HR 1·49 [1·43-1·56]), and, among all age groups, was highest in younger individuals (HR in people aged <45 years: 2·22 [1·92-2·57]). Excess risk was observed across all 12 cardiovascular diseases investigated. Patients with gout had higher BMI than matched controls (mean difference 2·90 kg/m2 [95% CI 2·87-2·93]) and higher prevalence of chronic kidney disease, dyslipidaemia, history of hypertension, obesity, and type 2 diabetes. Adjusting for known cardiovascular risk factors attenuated but did not eliminate the excess risk of cardiovascular disease related to gout (adjusted HR 1·31 [1·27-1·36]).

INTERPRETATION

Patients with gout had an excess risk of developing a broad range of cardiovascular diseases that extend beyond atherosclerotic diseases and include heart failure, arrhythmias, valve disease, and thromboembolic diseases. Excess risk was highest in women and younger individuals. These findings suggest that strategies to reduce cardiovascular risk in patients with gout need to evolve and be implemented in clinical practice.

FUNDING

Research Foundation Flanders.

Impact of Residential Social Deprivation on Prediction of Heart Failure in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: External Validation and Recalibration of the WATCH-DM Score Using Real World Data

BACKGROUND

Patients with type 2 diabetes are at risk of heart failure hospitalization. As social determinants of health are rarely included in risk models, we validated and recalibrated the WATCH-DM score in a diverse patient-group using their social deprivation index (SDI).

METHODS

We identified US Veterans with type 2 diabetes without heart failure that received outpatient care during 2010 at Veterans Affairs medical centers nationwide, linked them to their SDI using residential ZIP codes and grouped them as SDI <20%, 21% to 40%, 41% to 60%, 61% to 80%, and >80% (higher values represent increased deprivation). Accounting for all-cause mortality, we obtained the incidence for heart failure hospitalization at 5 years follow-up; overall and in each SDI group. We evaluated the WATCH-DM score using the C statistic, the Greenwood Nam D'Agostino test χ2 test and calibration plots and further recalibrated the WATCH-DM score for each SDI group using a statistical correction factor.

RESULTS

In 1 065 691 studied patients (mean age 67 years, 25% Black and 6% Hispanic patients), the 5-year incidence of heart failure hospitalization was 5.39%. In SDI group 1 (least deprived) and 5 (most deprived), the 5-year heart failure hospitalization was 3.18% and 11%, respectively. The score C statistic was 0.62; WATCH-DM systematically overestimated heart failure risk in SDI groups 1 to 2 (expected/observed ratios, 1.38 and 1.36, respectively) and underestimated the heart failure risk in groups 4 to 5 (expected/observed ratios, 0.95 and 0.80, respectively). Graphical evaluation demonstrated that the recalibration of WATCH-DM using an SDI group-based correction factor improved predictive capabilities as supported by reduction in the χ2 test results (801-27 in SDI groups I; 623-23 in SDI group V).

CONCLUSIONS

Including social determinants of health to recalibrate the WATCH-DM score improved risk prediction highlighting the importance of including social determinants in future clinical risk prediction models.

Genetic drivers of heterogeneity in type 2 diabetes pathophysiology

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous disease that develops through diverse pathophysiological processes1,2 and molecular mechanisms that are often specific to cell type3,4. Here, to characterize the genetic contribution to these processes across ancestry groups, we aggregate genome-wide association study data from 2,535,601 individuals (39.7% not of European ancestry), including 428,452 cases of T2D. We identify 1,289 independent association signals at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8) that map to 611 loci, of which 145 loci are, to our knowledge, previously unreported. We define eight non-overlapping clusters of T2D signals that are characterized by distinct profiles of cardiometabolic trait associations. These clusters are differentially enriched for cell-type-specific regions of open chromatin, including pancreatic islets, adipocytes, endothelial cells and enteroendocrine cells. We build cluster-specific partitioned polygenic scores5 in a further 279,552 individuals of diverse ancestry, including 30,288 cases of T2D, and test their association with T2D-related vascular outcomes. Cluster-specific partitioned polygenic scores are associated with coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease and end-stage diabetic nephropathy across ancestry groups, highlighting the importance of obesity-related processes in the development of vascular outcomes. Our findings show the value of integrating multi-ancestry genome-wide association study data with single-cell epigenomics to disentangle the aetiological heterogeneity that drives the development and progression of T2D. This might offer a route to optimize global access to genetically informed diabetes care.

Socioeconomic deprivation and illness trajectory in the Scottish population after COVID-19 hospitalization

BACKGROUND

The associations between deprivation and illness trajectory after hospitalisation for coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) are uncertain.

METHODS

A prospective, multicentre cohort study was conducted on post-COVID-19 patients, enrolled either in-hospital or shortly post-discharge. Two evaluations were carried out: an initial assessment and a follow-up at 28-60 days post-discharge. The study encompassed research blood tests, patient-reported outcome measures, and multisystem imaging (including chest computed tomography (CT) with pulmonary and coronary angiography, cardiovascular and renal magnetic resonance imaging). Primary and secondary outcomes were analysed in relation to socioeconomic status, using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD). The EQ-5D-5L, Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire (BIPQ), Patient Health Questionnaire-4 (PHQ-4) for Anxiety and Depression, and the Duke Activity Status Index (DASI) were used to assess health status.

RESULTS

Of the 252 enrolled patients (mean age 55.0 ± 12.0 years; 40% female; 23% with diabetes), deprivation status was linked with increased BMI and diabetes prevalence. 186 (74%) returned for the follow-up. Within this group, findings indicated associations between deprivation and lung abnormalities (p = 0.0085), coronary artery disease (p = 0.0128), and renal inflammation (p = 0.0421). Furthermore, patients with higher deprivation exhibited worse scores in health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L, p = 0.0084), illness perception (BIPQ, p = 0.0004), anxiety and depression levels (PHQ-4, p = 0.0038), and diminished physical activity (DASI, p = 0.002). At the 3-month mark, those with greater deprivation showed a higher frequency of referrals to secondary care due to ongoing COVID-19 symptoms (p = 0.0438). However, clinical outcomes were not influenced by deprivation.

CONCLUSIONS

In a post-hospital COVID-19 population, socioeconomic deprivation was associated with impaired health status and secondary care episodes. Deprivation influences illness trajectory after COVID-19.

Incidence and Determinants of Spontaneous Normalization of Subclinical Hypothyroidism in Older Adults

CONTEXT

With age, the prevalence of subclinical hypothyroidism rises. However, incidence and determinants of spontaneous normalization remain largely unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate incidence and determinants of spontaneous normalization of TSH levels in older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism.

DESIGN

Pooled data were used from the (1) pretrial population and (2) in-trial placebo group from 2 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials (Thyroid Hormone Replacement for Untreated Older Adults With Subclinical Hypothyroidism Trial and Institute for Evidence-Based Medicine in Old Age thyroid 80-plus thyroid trial).

SETTING

Community-dwelling 65+ adults with subclinical hypothyroidism from the Netherlands, Switzerland, Ireland, and the United Kingdom.

PARTICIPANTS

The pretrial population (N = 2335) consisted of older adults with biochemical subclinical hypothyroidism, defined as ≥1 elevated TSH measurement (≥4.60 mIU/L) and a free T4 within the laboratory-specific reference range. Individuals with persistent subclinical hypothyroidism, defined as ≥2 elevated TSH measurements ≥3 months apart, were randomized to levothyroxine/placebo, of which the in-trial placebo group (N = 361) was included.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence of spontaneous normalization of TSH levels and associations between participant characteristics and normalization.

RESULTS

In the pretrial phase, TSH levels normalized in 60.8% of participants in a median follow-up of 1 year. In the in-trial phase, levels normalized in 39.9% of participants after 1 year of follow-up. Younger age, female sex, lower initial TSH level, higher initial free T4 level, absence of thyroid peroxidase antibodies, and a follow-up measurement in summer were independent determinants for normalization.

CONCLUSION

Because TSH levels spontaneously normalized in a large proportion of older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism (also after confirmation by repeat measurement), a third measurement may be recommended before considering treatment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01660126 and Netherlands Trial Register, NTR3851.

Long-term cardiovascular risks and the impact of statin treatment on socioeconomic inequalities: a microsimulation model

BACKGROUND

UK cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality have declined in recent decades but socioeconomic inequalities persist.

AIM

To present a new CVD model, and project health outcomes and the impact of guideline-recommended statin treatment across quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation in the UK.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A lifetime microsimulation model was developed using 117 896 participants in 16 statin trials, 501 854 UK Biobank (UKB) participants, and quality-of-life data from national health surveys.

METHOD

A CVD microsimulation model was developed using risk equations for myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularisation, cancer, and vascular and non-vascular death, estimated using trial data. The authors calibrated and further developed this model in the UKB cohort, including further characteristics and a diabetes risk equation, and validated the model in UKB and Whitehall II cohorts. The model was used to predict CVD incidence, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the impact of UK guideline-recommended statin treatment across socioeconomic deprivation quintiles.

RESULTS

Age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular events were key CVD risk determinants. Model-predicted event rates corresponded well to observed rates across participant categories. The model projected strong gradients in remaining life expectancy, with 4-5-year (5-8 QALYs) gaps between the least and most socioeconomically deprived quintiles. Guideline-recommended statin treatment was projected to increase QALYs, with larger gains in quintiles of higher deprivation.

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrated the potential of guideline-recommended statin treatment to reduce socioeconomic inequalities. This CVD model is a novel resource for individualised long-term projections of health outcomes of CVD treatments.

Multiple Cardiac Biomarkers to Improve Prediction of Cardiovascular Events: Findings from the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study

BACKGROUND

Many studies have investigated whether single cardiac biomarkers improve cardiovascular risk prediction for primary prevention but whether a combined approach could further improve risk prediction is unclear. We aimed to test a sex-specific, combined cardiac biomarker approach for cardiovascular risk prediction.

METHODS

In the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), cardiac troponin I (cTnI), cardiac troponin T (cTnT), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured in stored serum using automated immunoassays. Sex-specific Cox models that included SCORE2 risk factors evaluated addition of single and combined biomarkers for prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Combined biomarker models were compared to a baseline model that included SCORE2 risk factors.

RESULTS

The study population comprised 18 383 individuals (58.9% women, median age of 48 years [25th-75th percentile, 35-58 years]). During the median follow up of 11.6 (25th-75th percentile, 10.8-13.0) years, MACE occurred in 942 (5.1%) individuals. The greatest increase in discrimination with addition of individual biomarkers to the base model was for women GDF-15 and for men NT-proBNP (change in c-index: + 0.010 for women and +0.005 for men). For women, combined biomarker models that included GDF-15 and NT-proBNP (+0.012) or GDF-15 and cTnI (+0.013), but not CRP or cTnT, further improved discrimination. For men, combined biomarker models that included NT-proBNP and GDF-15 (+0.007), NT-proBNP and cTnI (+0.006), or NT-proBNP and CRP (+0.008), but not cTnT, further improved discrimination.

CONCLUSIONS

A combined biomarker approach, particularly the use of GDF-15, NT-proBNP and cTnI, further refined cardiovascular risk estimates.

Elevated lipoprotein(a) increases risk of subsequent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and coronary revascularisation in incident ASCVD patients: A cohort study from the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Elevated lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is a genetic driver for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). We aimed to provide novel insights into the associated risk of elevated versus normal Lp(a) levels on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in an incident ASCVD cohort.

METHODS

This was an observational cohort study of incident ASCVD patients. MACE counts and incidence rates (IRs) per 100-person-years were reported for patients with normal (<65 nmol/L) and elevated (>150 nmol/L) Lp(a) within the first year after incident ASCVD diagnosis and overall follow-up. Cox proportional hazard models quantified the risk of MACE associated with a 100 nmol/L increase in Lp(a).

RESULTS

The study cohort included 32,537 incident ASCVD patients; 5204 with elevated and 22,257 with normal Lp(a). Of those with elevated Lp(a), 41.2% had a subsequent MACE, versus 35.61% with normal Lp(a). Within the first year of follow-up, the IRs of composite MACE and coronary revascularisation were significantly higher (p < 0.001) in patients with elevated versus normal Lp(a) (IR difference 6.79 and 4.66). This trend was also observed in the overall follow-up (median 4.7 years). Using time to first subsequent MACE, a 100 nmol/L increase in Lp(a) was associated with an 8.0% increased risk of composite MACE, and 18.6% increased risk of coronary revascularisation during the overall follow-up period.

CONCLUSIONS

The association of elevated Lp(a) with increased risk of subsequent MACE and coronary revascularisation highlights a population who may benefit from earlier and more targeted intervention for cardiovascular risk including Lp(a), particularly within the first year after ASCVD diagnosis. Proactive Lp(a) testing as part of routine clinical practice can help identify and better manage these higher-risk individuals.

Epigenetic Contributions to Clinical Risk Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is among the leading causes of death worldwide. The discovery of new omics biomarkers could help to improve risk stratification algorithms and expand our understanding of molecular pathways contributing to the disease. Here, ASSIGN-a cardiovascular risk prediction tool recommended for use in Scotland-was examined in tandem with epigenetic and proteomic features in risk prediction models in ≥12 657 participants from the Generation Scotland cohort.

METHODS

Previously generated DNA methylation-derived epigenetic scores (EpiScores) for 109 protein levels were considered, in addition to both measured levels and an EpiScore for cTnI (cardiac troponin I). The associations between individual protein EpiScores and the CVD risk were examined using Cox regression (ncases≥1274; ncontrols≥11 383) and visualized in a tailored R application. Splitting the cohort into independent training (n=6880) and test (n=3659) subsets, a composite CVD EpiScore was then developed.

RESULTS

Sixty-five protein EpiScores were associated with incident CVD independently of ASSIGN and the measured concentration of cTnI (P<0.05), over a follow-up of up to 16 years of electronic health record linkage. The most significant EpiScores were for proteins involved in metabolic, immune response, and tissue development/regeneration pathways. A composite CVD EpiScore (based on 45 protein EpiScores) was a significant predictor of CVD risk independent of ASSIGN and the concentration of cTnI (hazard ratio, 1.32; P=3.7×10-3; 0.3% increase in C-statistic).

CONCLUSIONS

EpiScores for circulating protein levels are associated with CVD risk independent of traditional risk factors and may increase our understanding of the etiology of the disease.

Impact of weight loss on cancer-related proteins in serum: results from a cluster randomised controlled trial of individuals with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes is associated with higher risk of several cancer types. However, the biological intermediates driving this relationship are not fully understood. As novel interventions for treating and managing type 2 diabetes become increasingly available, whether they also disrupt the pathways leading to increased cancer risk is currently unknown. We investigated the effect of a type 2 diabetes intervention, in the form of intentional weight loss, on circulating proteins associated with cancer risk to gain insight into potential mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and adiposity with cancer development.

METHODS

Fasting serum samples from participants with diabetes enrolled in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) receiving the Counterweight-Plus weight-loss programme (intervention, N = 117, mean weight-loss 10 kg, 46% diabetes remission) or best-practice care by guidelines (control, N = 143, mean weight-loss 1 kg, 4% diabetes remission) were subject to proteomic analysis using the Olink Oncology-II platform (48% of participants were female; 52% male). To identify proteins which may be altered by the weight-loss intervention, the difference in protein levels between groups at baseline and 1 year was examined using linear regression. Mendelian randomization (MR) was performed to extend these results to evaluate cancer risk and elucidate possible biological mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and cancer development. MR analyses were conducted using independent datasets, including large cancer meta-analyses, UK Biobank, and FinnGen, to estimate potential causal relationships between proteins modified during intentional weight loss and the risk of colorectal, breast, endometrial, gallbladder, liver, and pancreatic cancers.

FINDINGS

Nine proteins were modified by the intervention: glycoprotein Nmb; furin; Wnt inhibitory factor 1; toll-like receptor 3; pancreatic prohormone; erb-b2 receptor tyrosine kinase 2; hepatocyte growth factor; endothelial cell specific molecule 1 and Ret proto-oncogene (Holm corrected P-value <0.05). Mendelian randomization analyses indicated a causal relationship between predicted circulating furin and glycoprotein Nmb on breast cancer risk (odds ratio (OR) = 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.67-0.99, P-value = 0.03; and OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.78-0.99, P-value = 0.04 respectively), though these results were not supported in sensitivity analyses examining violations of MR assumptions.

INTERPRETATION

Intentional weight loss among individuals with recently diagnosed diabetes may modify levels of cancer-related proteins in serum. Further evaluation of the proteins identified in this analysis could reveal molecular pathways that mediate the effect of adiposity and type 2 diabetes on cancer risk.

FUNDING

The main sources of funding for this work were Diabetes UK, Cancer Research UK, World Cancer Research Fund, and Wellcome.

Appetite and its Regulation: Are there Palatable Interventions for Heart Failure?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Obesity is a major driver of heart failure (HF) incidence, and aggravates its pathophysiology. We summarized key reported and ongoing randomized clinical trials of appetite regulation and/or dietary energy restriction in individuals with HF.

RECENT FINDINGS

Weight loss can be achieved by structured supervised diet programs with behavioural change, medications, or surgery. The new glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists alone or in combination with other agents (e.g., glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide and glucagon receptor agonists or amylin analogues) potently and sustainably reduce appetite, and, taken together with dietary advice, can produce substantial, life-changing, weight loss approaching that achieved by surgery. To date, data from the STEP-HFpEF trial show meaningful improvements in health status (Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire). Effective weight management could relieve several drivers of HF, to complement the existing treatments for HF with both reduced and preserved ejection fraction. Further trials of weight loss interventions will provide more definitive evidence to understand their effects on clinical events in patients with HF.

Effects of empagliflozin on collagen biomarkers in patients with heart failure: Findings from the EMPEROR trials

AIMS

Extracellular matrix remodelling is one of the key pathways involved in heart failure (HF) progression. Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) may have a role in attenuating myocardial fibrosis. The impact of SGLT2i on blood markers of collagen turnover in humans is not fully elucidated. This study aimed to investigate the effect of empagliflozin on serum markers of collagen turnover in patients enrolled in the EMPEROR-Preserved and EMPEROR-Reduced trials.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Overall, 1084 patients (545 in empagliflozin and 539 in placebo) were included in the analysis. Procollagen type I carboxy-terminal propeptide (PICP), a fragment of N-terminal type III collagen (PRO-C3), procollagen type I amino-terminal peptide (PINP), a fragment of C-terminal type VIa3 collagen (PRO-C6), a fragment of type I collagen (C1M), and a fragment of type III collagen (C3M) were measured in serum at baseline, 12 and 52 weeks. A mixed model repeated measurements model was used to evaluate the effect of empagliflozin versus placebo on the analysed biomarkers. Higher baseline PICP, PRO-C6 and PINP levels were associated with older age, a more severe HF presentation, higher levels of natriuretic peptides and high-sensitivity troponin T, and the presence of comorbid conditions such as chronic kidney disease and atrial fibrillation. Higher PICP levels were associated with the occurrence of the study primary endpoint (a composite of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death), and PRO-C6 and PINP were associated with the occurrence of sustained worsening of kidney function. On the other hand, PRO-C3, C1M, and C3M were not associated with worse HF severity or study outcomes. Compared to placebo, empagliflozin reduced PICP at week 12 by 5% and at week 52 by 8% (week 12: geometric mean ratio = 0.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.91-0.99, p = 0.012; week 52: geometric mean ratio = 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.97, p = 0.003). Additionally, empagliflozin reduced PRO-C3 at week 52 by 7% (week 12: geometric mean ratio = 0.98, 95% CI 0.95-1.02, p = 0.42; week 52: geometric mean ratio = 0.93, 95% CI 0.89-0.98, p = 0.003), without impact on other collagen markers.

CONCLUSION

Our observations are consistent with experimental observations that empagliflozin down-regulates profibrotic signalling. The importance of such an effect for the clinical benefits of SGLT2i in HF remains to be elucidated.

Effects of renin-angiotensin system blockers on outcomes from COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have assessed the effects of renin-angiotensin system (RAS) blockers in adults with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This meta-analysis provides estimates of the safety and efficacy of treatment with (vs. without) RAS blockers from these trials.

METHODS

PubMed, Web of Science, and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched (1 March-12 April 2023). Event/patient numbers were extracted, comparing angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor/angiotensin-receptor blocker (ARB) treatment with no treatment, for the outcomes: intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, vasopressor use, acute kidney injury (AKI), renal replacement therapy (RRT), acute myocardial infarction, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, heart failure, thromboembolic events, and all-cause death. Fixed-effects meta-analysis estimates were pooled.

RESULTS

Sixteen RCTs including 3492 patients were analysed. Compared with discontinuation of RAS blockers, continuation was not associated with increased risk of ICU [risk ratio (RR) 0.96, 0.66-1.41], ventilation (RR 0.77, 0.55-1.09), vasopressors (RR 0.92, 0.58-1.44), AKI (RR 1.01, 0.40-2.56), RRT (RR 1.01, 0.46-2.21), or thromboembolic events (RR 1.07, 0.36-3.19). RAS blocker initiation was not associated with increased risk of ICU (RR 0.71, 0.47-1.08), ventilation (RR 1.12, 0.91-1.38), AKI (RR 1.28, 0.89-1.86), RRT (RR 1.66, 0.89-3.12), or thromboembolic events (RR 1.20, 0.06-23.70), although vasopressor use increased (RR 1.27, 1.02-1.57). The RR for all-cause death in the continuation/discontinuation trials was 1.24 (0.80-1.92), and 1.22 (0.96-1.55) in the initiation trials. In patients with severe/critical COVID-19, RAS blocker initiation increased the risk of all-cause death (RR 1.31, 1.01-1.72).

CONCLUSION

ACE inhibitors and ARBs may be continued in non-severe COVID-19 infection, where indicated. Conversely, initiation of RAS blockers may be harmful in critically ill patients.PROSPERO registration number: CRD42023408926.

Continued Treatment With Tirzepatide for Maintenance of Weight Reduction in Adults With Obesity: The SURMOUNT-4 Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

The effect of continued treatment with tirzepatide on maintaining initial weight reduction is unknown.

Objective

To assess the effect of tirzepatide, with diet and physical activity, on the maintenance of weight reduction.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This phase 3, randomized withdrawal clinical trial conducted at 70 sites in 4 countries with a 36-week, open-label tirzepatide lead-in period followed by a 52-week, double-blind, placebo-controlled period included adults with a body mass index greater than or equal to 30 or greater than or equal to 27 and a weight-related complication, excluding diabetes.

Interventions

Participants (n = 783) enrolled in an open-label lead-in period received once-weekly subcutaneous maximum tolerated dose (10 or 15 mg) of tirzepatide for 36 weeks. At week 36, a total of 670 participants were randomized (1:1) to continue receiving tirzepatide (n = 335) or switch to placebo (n = 335) for 52 weeks.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary end point was the mean percent change in weight from week 36 (randomization) to week 88. Key secondary end points included the proportion of participants at week 88 who maintained at least 80% of the weight loss during the lead-in period.

Results

Participants (n = 670; mean age, 48 years; 473 [71%] women; mean weight, 107.3 kg) who completed the 36-week lead-in period experienced a mean weight reduction of 20.9%. The mean percent weight change from week 36 to week 88 was -5.5% with tirzepatide vs 14.0% with placebo (difference, -19.4% [95% CI, -21.2% to -17.7%]; P < .001). Overall, 300 participants (89.5%) receiving tirzepatide at 88 weeks maintained at least 80% of the weight loss during the lead-in period compared with 16.6% receiving placebo (P < .001). The overall mean weight reduction from week 0 to 88 was 25.3% for tirzepatide and 9.9% for placebo. The most common adverse events were mostly mild to moderate gastrointestinal events, which occurred more commonly with tirzepatide vs placebo.

Conclusions and Relevance

In participants with obesity or overweight, withdrawing tirzepatide led to substantial regain of lost weight, whereas continued treatment maintained and augmented initial weight reduction.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04660643.

The metabolomic signature of weight loss and remission in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT)

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

High-throughput metabolomics technologies in a variety of study designs have demonstrated a consistent metabolomic signature of overweight and type 2 diabetes. However, the extent to which these metabolomic patterns can be reversed with weight loss and diabetes remission has been weakly investigated. We aimed to characterise the metabolomic consequences of a weight-loss intervention in individuals with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We analysed 574 fasted serum samples collected within an existing RCT (the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial [DiRECT]) (N=298). In the trial, participating primary care practices were randomly assigned (1:1) to provide either a weight management programme (intervention) or best-practice care by guidelines (control) treatment to individuals with type 2 diabetes. Here, metabolomics analysis was performed on samples collected at baseline and 12 months using both untargeted MS and targeted 1H-NMR spectroscopy. Multivariable regression models were fitted to evaluate the effect of the intervention on metabolite levels.

RESULTS

Decreases in branched-chain amino acids, sugars and LDL triglycerides, and increases in sphingolipids, plasmalogens and metabolites related to fatty acid metabolism were associated with the intervention (Holm-corrected p<0.05). In individuals who lost more than 9 kg between baseline and 12 months, those who achieved diabetes remission saw greater reductions in glucose, fructose and mannose, compared with those who did not achieve remission.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

We have characterised the metabolomic effects of an integrated weight management programme previously shown to deliver weight loss and diabetes remission. A large proportion of the metabolome appears to be modifiable. Patterns of change were largely and strikingly opposite to perturbances previously documented with the development of type 2 diabetes.

DATA AVAILABILITY

The data used for analysis are available on a research data repository ( https://researchdata.gla.ac.uk/ ) with access given to researchers subject to appropriate data sharing agreements. Metabolite data preparation, data pre-processing, statistical analyses and figure generation were performed in R Studio v.1.0.143 using R v.4.0.2. The R code for this study has been made publicly available on GitHub at: https://github.com/lauracorbin/metabolomics_of_direct .

Estimating dose-response relationships for vitamin D with coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality: observational and Mendelian randomisation analyses

BACKGROUND

Randomised trials of vitamin D supplementation for cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality have generally reported null findings. However, generalisability of results to individuals with low vitamin D status is unclear. We aimed to characterise dose-response relationships between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations and risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality in observational and Mendelian randomisation frameworks.

METHODS

Observational analyses were undertaken using data from 33 prospective studies comprising 500 962 individuals with no known history of coronary heart disease or stroke at baseline. Mendelian randomisation analyses were performed in four population-based cohort studies (UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD, and two Copenhagen population-based studies) comprising 386 406 middle-aged individuals of European ancestries, including 33 546 people who developed coronary heart disease, 18 166 people who had a stroke, and 27 885 people who died. Primary outcomes were coronary heart disease, defined as fatal ischaemic heart disease (International Classification of Diseases 10th revision code I20-I25) or non-fatal myocardial infarction (I21-I23); stroke, defined as any cerebrovascular disease (I60-I69); and all-cause mortality.

FINDINGS

Observational analyses suggested inverse associations between incident coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality outcomes with 25(OH)D concentration at low 25(OH)D concentrations. In population-wide genetic analyses, there were no associations of genetically predicted 25(OH)D with coronary heart disease (odds ratio [OR] per 10 nmol/L higher genetically-predicted 25(OH)D concentration 0·98, 95% CI 0·95-1·01), stroke (1·01, [0·97-1·05]), or all-cause mortality (0·99, 0·95-1·02). Null findings were also observed in genetic analyses for cause-specific mortality outcomes, and in stratified genetic analyses for all outcomes at all observed levels of 25(OH)D concentrations.

INTERPRETATION

Stratified Mendelian randomisation analyses suggest a lack of causal relationship for 25(OH)D concentrations with both cardiovascular and mortality outcomes for individuals at all levels of 25(OH)D. Our findings suggest that substantial reductions in mortality and cardiovascular morbidity due to long-term low-dose vitamin D supplementation are unlikely even if targeted at individuals with low vitamin D status.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, Health Data Research UK, Cancer Research UK, and International Agency for Research on Cancer.

Growth differentiation factor-15 and the effect of empagliflozin in heart failure: Findings from the EMPEROR program

AIMS

Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) is upregulated in part in response to cardiomyocyte stretch and stress, and it exerts a protective role that is mediated by its action to suppress signalling through insulin-like growth factor (IGF) and enhance signalling through adenosine monophosphate-activated protein kinase (AMPK). Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors improve outcomes in heart failure, which has been experimentally linked to AMPK. This study aimed at evaluating the associations of GDF-15 with baseline characteristics, the prognostic significance of GDF-15, and the effect of empagliflozin on GDF-15 in patients with heart failure with a reduced and preserved ejection fraction.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Growth differentiation factor-15 was determined in serum samples from the EMPEROR-Reduced and EMPEROR-Preserved trials. Cox regression and mixed models for repeated measures were used to study the association with outcomes and the effect of empagliflozin on GDF-15, respectively. We studied 1124 patients (560 placebo and 564 empagliflozin) with median GDF-15 levels at baseline of 2442 (interquartile range 1603-3780) pg/ml. Patients with higher GDF-15 levels were typically older men with more severe symptoms, higher N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels, worse kidney function and who were prescribed metformin. Baseline levels of GDF-15 were well correlated with levels of IGF-binding protein 7 (rho = 0.64). Higher levels of GDF-15 were independently associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular death, heart failure hospitalizations, and worse kidney outcomes. When considered as a continuous variable, for each doubling in GDF-15, the adjusted hazard ratio for cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization was 1.40 (95% confidence interval 1.15-1.71; p < 0.001). The relative effect of empagliflozin on cardiovascular death and hospitalization for heart failure was most pronounced in patients with higher baseline levels of GDF-15 (interaction p-trend = 0.031). At week 52, when compared with placebo, empagliflozin increased GDF-15 by an additional 8% (p = 0.020), an effect that was primarily seen in patients not receiving metformin, a known AMPK activator.

CONCLUSIONS

Growth differentiation factor-15 is a marker of worse heart failure severity, is an independent predictor of major heart failure outcomes and may be associated with more pronounced benefits of empagliflozin. GDF-15 is increased among metformin users, and empagliflozin was associated with an increase in GDF-15 levels, primarily in patients not receiving metformin.

Clinical outcomes and adverse events of bariatric surgery in adults with severe obesity in Scotland: the SCOTS observational cohort study

Background

Bariatric surgery is a common procedure worldwide for the treatment of severe obesity and associated comorbid conditions but there is a lack of evidence as to medium-term safety and effectiveness outcomes in a United Kingdom setting.

Objective

To establish the clinical outcomes and adverse events of different bariatric surgical procedures, their impact on quality of life and the effect on comorbidities.

Design

Prospective observational cohort study.

Setting

National Health Service secondary care and private practice in Scotland, United Kingdom.

Participants

Adults (age >16 years) undergoing their first bariatric surgery procedure.

Main outcome measures

Change in weight, hospital length of stay, readmission and reoperation rate, mortality, diabetes outcomes (HbA1c, medications), quality of life, anxiety, depression.

Data sources

Patient-reported outcome measures, hospital records, national electronic health records (Scottish Morbidity Record 01, Scottish Care Information Diabetes, National Records Scotland, Prescription Information System).

Results

Between December 2013 and February 2017, 548 eligible patients were approached and 445 participants were enrolled in the study. Of those, 335 had bariatric surgery and 1 withdrew from the study. Mean age was 46.0 (9.2) years, 74.7% were female and the median body mass index was 46.4 (42.4; 52.0) kg/m2. Weight was available for 128 participants at 3 years: mean change was -19.0% (±14.1) from the operation and -24.2% (±12.8) from the start of the preoperative weight-management programme. One hundred and thirty-nine (41.4%) participants were readmitted to hospital in the same or subsequent 35 months post surgery, 18 (5.4% of the operated cohort) had a reoperation or procedure considered to be related to bariatric surgery gastrointestinal complications or revisions. Fewer than five participants (<2%) died during follow-up. HbA1c was available for 93/182 and diabetes medications for 139/182 participants who had type 2 diabetes prior to surgery; HbA1c mean change was -5.72 (±16.71) (p = 0.001) mmol/mol and 65.5% required no diabetes medications (p < 0.001) at 3 years post surgery. Physical quality of life, available for 101/335 participants, improved in the 3 years post surgery, mean change in Rand 12-item Short Form Survey physical component score 8.32 (±8.95) (p < 0.001); however, there was no change in the prevalence of anxiety or depression.

Limitations

Due to low numbers of bariatric surgery procedures in Scotland, recruitment was stopped before achieving the intended 2000 participants and follow-up was reduced from 10 years to 3 years.

Conclusions

Bariatric surgery is a safe and effective treatment for obesity. Patients in Scotland, UK, appear to be older and have higher body mass than international comparators, which may be due to the small number of procedures performed.

Future work

Intervention studies are required to identify the optimal pre- and post surgery pathway to maximise safety and cost-effectiveness.

Study registration

This study is registered as ISRCTN47072588.

Funding details

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 10/42/02) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 7. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Risk Factors for and Risk of Peripheral Artery Disease in Swedish Individuals With Type 2 Diabetes: A Nationwide Register-Based Study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate to what extent having control of peripheral artery disease (PAD) risk factors is associated with the risk of incident PAD in individuals with type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 148,096 individuals with type 2 diabetes in the Swedish National Diabetes Register between 2005 and 2009 were included and matched with 320,066 control subjects on the basis of age, sex, and county. A few control subjects who developed type 2 diabetes after recruitment, during wash-in (<0.2%), were not censored but instead matched with two new control subjects. Individuals with type 2 diabetes were evaluated according to the number of PAD risk factors beyond recommended guideline levels at baseline, including LDL cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking, glycated hemoglobin, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Incident PAD events were ascertained from 2006 to 2019.

RESULTS

A graded association was observed between the number of PAD risk factors not at target and incident PAD in individuals with type 2 diabetes. The adjusted hazard ratio for PAD was 1.41 (95% CI 1.23-1.63) for those with type 2 diabetes with all PAD risk factors within target compared with control subjects matched for sex, age, and county but not risk factor status, in contrast with 9.28 (95% CI 3.62-23.79) for those with all five PAD risk factors not at target.

CONCLUSIONS

A graded association was observed between increasing number of PAD risk factors not at target and incident PAD in individuals with type 2 diabetes.

Comparison of tirzepatide and dulaglutide on major adverse cardiovascular events in participants with type 2 diabetes and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: SURPASS-CVOT design and baseline characteristics

BACKGROUND

Tirzepatide, a once-weekly GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist, reduces blood glucose and body weight in people with type 2 diabetes. The cardiovascular (CV) safety and efficacy of tirzepatide have not been definitively assessed in a cardiovascular outcomes trial.

METHODS

Tirzepatide is being studied in a randomized, double-blind, active-controlled CV outcomes trial. People with type 2 diabetes aged ≥40 years, with established atherosclerotic CV disease, HbA1c ≥7% to ≤10.5%, and body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 were randomized 1:1 to once weekly subcutaneous injection of either tirzepatide up to 15 mg or dulaglutide 1.5 mg. The primary outcome is time to first occurrence of any major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), defined as CV death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. The trial is event-driven and planned to continue until ≥1,615 participants experience an adjudication-confirmed component of MACE. The primary analysis is noninferiority for time to first MACE of tirzepatide vs dulaglutide by demonstrating an upper confidence limit <1.05, which will also confirm superiority vs a putative placebo, and also to determine whether tirzepatide produces a greater CV benefit than dulaglutide (superiority analysis).

RESULTS

Over 2 years, 13,299 people at 640 sites in 30 countries across all world regions were randomized. The mean age of randomized participants at baseline was 64.1 years, diabetes duration 14.7 years, HbA1c 8.4%, and BMI 32.6 kg/m2. Overall, 65.0% had coronary disease, of whom 47.3% reported prior myocardial infarction and 57.4% had prior coronary revascularization. 19.1% of participants had a prior stroke and 25.3% had peripheral artery disease. The trial is fully recruited and ongoing.

CONCLUSION

SURPASS-CVOT will provide definitive evidence as to the CV safety and efficacy of tirzepatide as compared with dulaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist with established CV benefit.

Efficacy and Safety of Empagliflozin According to Background Diuretic Use in HFrEF: Post-Hoc Analysis of EMPEROR-Reduced

BACKGROUND

The EMPEROR-Reduced (EMPagliflozin outcomE tRial in Patients With chrOnic heaRt Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction) trial established the efficacy of empagliflozin in reducing heart failure (HF) outcomes among patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

OBJECTIVES

The authors examined the outcomes of EMPEROR-Reduced as a function of background diuretic therapy.

METHODS

The EMPEROR-Reduced trial was a double-blind, randomized controlled trial of placebo vs empagliflozin 10 mg among 3,730 HFrEF patients. Herein, the population was stratified into 4 groups: no diuretic and diuretic dose equivalent to furosemide <40, 40, and >40 mg daily at baseline.

RESULTS

A total of 3,656 patients from the EMPEROR-Reduced trial were available for analysis. Of those patients, 482 (13.2%) were receiving no diuretic therapy, and 731 (20.0%), 1,411 (38.6%), and 1,032 (28.2%) were receiving <40 mg, 40 mg, and >40 mg, respectively. The efficacy of empagliflozin on the primary outcome (time to first event of hospitalization for HF or cardiovascular [CV] death) was consistent regardless of background diuretic therapy (>40 mg: HR: 0.88 [95% CI: 0.71-1.10]; 40 mg: HR: 0.65 [95% CI: 0.51-0.82]; <40 mg: HR: 0.65 [95% CI: 0.46-0.92]); no diuretic agents: HR: 0.78 [95% CI: 0.47-1.29]; Ptrend test = 0.192). Baseline diuretic doses did not influence the effect of empagliflozin on body weight, systolic blood pressure, NT-proBNP, or hematocrit at 52 weeks. The safety profile of empagliflozin vs placebo was unaffected by baseline diuretic dose; however, independently of treatment allocation, total rates of adverse events were higher among patients with higher baseline doses of diuretic agents.

CONCLUSIONS

Empagliflozin exhibits a consistent effect on time to CV death or HF hospitalization and an unaltered safety profile regardless of baseline diuretic therapy. (EMPagliflozin outcomE tRial in Patients With chrOnic heaRt Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction [EMPEROR-Reduced]; NCT03057977).

GDF15 linked to maternal risk of nausea and vomiting during pregnancy

GDF15, a hormone acting on the brainstem, has been implicated in the nausea and vomiting of pregnancy, including its most severe form, hyperemesis gravidarum (HG), but a full mechanistic understanding is lacking1-4. Here we report that fetal production of GDF15 and maternal sensitivity to it both contribute substantially to the risk of HG. We confirmed that higher GDF15 levels in maternal blood are associated with vomiting in pregnancy and HG. Using mass spectrometry to detect a naturally labelled GDF15 variant, we demonstrate that the vast majority of GDF15 in the maternal plasma is derived from the feto-placental unit. By studying carriers of rare and common genetic variants, we found that low levels of GDF15 in the non-pregnant state increase the risk of developing HG. Conversely, women with β-thalassaemia, a condition in which GDF15 levels are chronically high5, report very low levels of nausea and vomiting of pregnancy. In mice, the acute food intake response to a bolus of GDF15 is influenced bi-directionally by prior levels of circulating GDF15 in a manner suggesting that this system is susceptible to desensitization. Our findings support a putative causal role for fetally derived GDF15 in the nausea and vomiting of human pregnancy, with maternal sensitivity, at least partly determined by prepregnancy exposure to the hormone, being a major influence on its severity. They also suggest mechanism-based approaches to the treatment and prevention of HG.

Geographically Weighted Modeling to Explore Social and Environmental Factors Affecting County-Level Cardiovascular Mortality in People With Diabetes in the United States: A Cross-Sectional Analysis

Disparities exist in the cardiovascular mortality rates among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Research has established that these disparities are often related to the environmental and social determinations of health. This study explores the spatial variation between air pollution, social determinants of health and T2D related age-adjusted cardiovascular mortality (aa-CVM) in the United States. We obtained county-level T2D related to aa-CVM (per 100,000 residents) from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER (Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) (2010 to 2019). We fit a geographically weighted linear regression with aa-CVM as the outcome and the following covariates (ambient air pollution [particulate matter of 2.5 µm size], median annual household income, racial/ethnic minorities, higher education, rurality, food insecurity, and primary health care access) were included. Overall, the median aa-CVM rate was 92.9 and highest in the South (102.2). In the West, aa-CVM was significantly associated with particulate matter of 2.5 µm size, annual median household income, racial minority status and primary health care access. Food insecurity was the most significant exposure in the Midwest and Northeast, while in the South, annual median household income and food insecurity were significant. In conclusion, this study demonstrated a substantial regional variation of exposure to determinants of T2D related aa-CVM in the United States. These findings should be considered in policy frameworks and interventions as part of community-level approaches to addressing T2D related aa-CVM, and within broader state and national discussions of the importance of population health.

Cross-sectional study of the associations between circulating vitamin D concentrations and insulin resistance in children aged 9-10 years of South Asian, black African Caribbean and white European origins

BACKGROUND

Lower circulating vitamin D 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations are associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk in adults, although causality remains uncertain. However, associations between 25(OH)D and type 2 diabetes risk markers in children have been little studied, particularly in ethnic minority populations. We examined whether 25(OH)D concentrations were associated with insulin resistance in children and whether lower 25(OH)D concentrations in South Asians and black African Caribbeans could contribute to their higher insulin resistance.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study of 4650 UK primary school children aged 9-10 years of predominantly South Asian, black African Caribbean and white European ethnicity. Children had fasting blood measurements of circulating 25(OH)D metabolite concentrations, insulin and glucose.

RESULTS

Lower 25(OH)D concentrations were observed in girls, South Asians and black African Caribbeans. In analyses adjusted for age, sex, month, ethnic group and school, circulating 25(OH)D was inversely associated with fasting insulin (-0.38%, 95% CI -0.49% to -0.27%), homoeostasis model assessment (HOMA) insulin resistance (-0.39%, 95% CI -0.50% to -0.28%) and fasting glucose (-0.03%, 95% CI -0.05% to -0.02%) per nmol/L increase in 25(OH)D; associations did not differ between ethnic groups. Ethnic differences in fasting insulin and HOMA insulin resistance (higher among South Asian and black African Caribbeans) were reduced by >40% after adjustment for circulating 25(OH)D concentrations.

CONCLUSION

Circulating vitamin D was inversely associated with insulin resistance in all ethnic groups; higher insulin resistance in South Asian and black African children were partly explained by their lower vitamin D levels. Whether vitamin D supplementation can reduce emerging type 2 diabetes risk needs further evaluation.

Sars-Cov-2 Infection in People with Type 1 Diabetes and Hospital Admission: An Analysis of Risk Factors for England

INTRODUCTION

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus (coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]) pandemic revealed the vulnerability of specific population groups in relation to susceptibility to acute deterioration in their health, including hospital admission and mortality. There is less data on outcomes for people with type 1 diabetes (T1D) following SARS-CoV-2 infection than for those with type 2 diabetes (T2D). In this study we set out to determine the relative likelihood of hospital admission following SARS-CoV-2 infection in people with T1D when compared to those without T1D.

METHODS

This study was conducted as a retrospective cohort study and utilised an all-England dataset. Electronic health record data relating to people in a national England database (NHS England's Secure Data Environment, accessed via the BHF Data Science Centre's CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT consortium) were analysed. The cohort consisted of patients with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the exposure was whether or not an individual had T1D prior to infection (77,392 patients with T1D). The patients without T1D were matched for sex, age and approximate date of the positive COVID-19 test, with three SARS-CoV-2-infected people living without diabetes (n = 223,995). Potential factors influencing the relative likelihood of the outcome of hospital admission within 28 days were ascertained using univariable and multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Median age of the people living with T1D was 37 (interquartile range 25-52) years, 47.4% were female and 89.6% were of white ethnicity. Mean body mass index was 27 (standard error [SE] 0.022) kg/m2, and mean glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) was 67.3 (SE 0.069) mmol/mol (8.3%). A significantly higher proportion of people with T1D (10.7%) versus matched non-diabetes individuals (3.9%) were admitted to hospital. In combined analysis including individuals with T1D and matched controls, multiple regression modelling indicated that the factors independently relating to a higher likelihood of hospital admission were: T1D (odds ratio [OR] 1.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.62-1.80]), age (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.02-1.03), social deprivation (higher Townsend deprivation score: OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.06-1.08), lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) value (OR 0.975, 95% CI 0.974-0.976), non-white ethnicity (OR black 1.19, 95% CI 1.06-1.33/OR Asian 1.21, 95% CI 1.05-1.39) and having asthma (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.19-1.35]), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.89-2.32), severe mental illness (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.57-2.12) or hypertension (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.37-1.52).

CONCLUSION

In this all-England study, we describe that, following confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2, the risk factors for hospital admission for people living with T1D are similar to people without diabetes following confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, although the former were more likely to be admitted to hospital. The younger age of individuals with T1D in relation to risk stratification must be taken into account in any ongoing risk reduction strategies regarding COVID-19/future viral pandemics.

Challenges in undertaking nonlinear Mendelian randomization

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a widely used method that exploits the unique properties of germline genetic variation to strengthen causal inference in relationships between exposures and outcomes. Nonlinear MR allows estimation of the shape of these relationships. In a previous paper, the authors applied linear and nonlinear MR to estimate the effect of BMI on mortality in UK Biobank, providing evidence for a J-shaped association. However, it is now clear that there are problems with widely used nonlinear MR methods, which draws attention to the likely erroneous nature of the conclusions regarding the shapes of several explored relationships. Here, the authors explore the utility and likely biases of these nonlinear MR methods with the use of a negative control design. Although there remains good evidence for a causal effect of higher BMI increasing the risk of mortality, the pattern of this association across different levels of BMI requires further characterization.

Predictors of ≥15% Weight Reduction and Associated Changes in Cardiometabolic Risk Factors With Tirzepatide in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes in SURPASS 1-4

OBJECTIVE

To identify predictors of body weight (BW) reduction of ≥15% with tirzepatide treatment and to describe associated clinical parameters of participants with type 2 diabetes (T2D) who achieved different categorical measures of BW reduction (<5%, ≥5 to <10%, ≥10 to <15%, and ≥15%) across four studies from the phase 3 SURPASS clinical trial program for T2D.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The multivariate model for predictor of a BW reduction of ≥15% included age, sex, race, BW, HbA1c, tirzepatide dose and baseline metformin use, fasting serum glucose, and non-HDL cholesterol. Baseline characteristics and change from baseline to week 40/42 for efficacy parameters were described and analyzed in treatment-adherent participants (≥75% doses administered and on treatment at week 40/42) receiving once weekly tirzepatide (5 mg, 10 mg, or 15 mg) (N = 3,188).

RESULTS

Factors significantly associated with achieving a BW reduction of ≥15% with tirzepatide were higher tirzepatide doses, female sex, White or Asian race, younger age, metformin background therapy, and lower HbA1c, fasting serum glucose, and non-HDL cholesterol at baseline. With higher categorical BW reduction, there were greater reductions in HbA1c, triglycerides, ALT, waist circumference, and blood pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline factors associated with a higher likelihood of achieving a BW reduction of ≥15% with tirzepatide were higher tirzepatide doses, female sex, White or Asian race, younger age, metformin background therapy, better glycemic status, and lower non-HDL cholesterol. With greater BW reduction, participants with T2D achieved larger improvements in glycemia and cardiometabolic risk parameters. These findings help inform which people with T2D are most likely to achieve greater BW reduction with improved cardiometabolic risk factors with tirzepatide.