NMR metabolomic modeling of age and lifespan: A multicohort analysis

Metabolomic age models have been proposed for the study of biological aging, however, they have not been widely validated. We aimed to assess the performance of newly developed and existing nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR) metabolomic age models for prediction of chronological age (CA), mortality, and age-related disease. Ninety-eight metabolic variables were measured in blood from nine UK and Finnish cohort studies (N ≈31,000 individuals, age range 24-86 years). We used nonlinear and penalized regression to model CA and time to all-cause mortality. We examined associations of four new and two previously published metabolomic age models, with aging risk factors and phenotypes. Within the UK Biobank (N ≈102,000), we tested prediction of CA, incident disease (cardiovascular disease (CVD), type-2 diabetes mellitus, cancer, dementia, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and all-cause mortality. Seven-fold cross-validated Pearson's r between metabolomic age models and CA ranged between 0.47 and 0.65 in the training cohort set (mean absolute error: 8-9 years). Metabolomic age models, adjusted for CA, were associated with C-reactive protein, and inversely associated with glomerular filtration rate. Positively associated risk factors included obesity, diabetes, smoking, and physical inactivity. In UK Biobank, correlations of metabolomic age with CA were modest (r = 0.29-0.33), yet all metabolomic model scores predicted mortality (hazard ratios of 1.01 to 1.06/metabolomic age year) and CVD, after adjustment for CA. While metabolomic age models were only moderately associated with CA in an independent population, they provided additional prediction of morbidity and mortality over CA itself, suggesting their wider applicability.

Motor Complications in Parkinson's Disease: Results from 3343 Patients Followed for up to 12 Years

BACKGROUND

Motor complications are well recognized in Parkinson's disease (PD), but their reported prevalence varies and functional impact has not been well studied.

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the presence, severity, impact and associated factors for motor complications in PD.

METHODS

Analysis of three large prospective cohort studies of recent-onset PD patients followed for up to 12 years. The MDS-UPDRS part 4 assessed motor complications and multivariable logistic regression tested for associations. Genetic risk score (GRS) for Parkinson's was calculated from 79 single nucleotide polymorphisms.

RESULTS

3343 cases were included (64.7% male). Off periods affected 35.0% (95% CI 33.0, 37.0) at 4-6 years and 59.0% (55.6, 62.3) at 8-10 years. Dyskinesia affected 18.5% (95% CI 16.9, 20.2) at 4-6 years and 42.1% (38.7, 45.5) at 8-10 years. Dystonia affected 13.4% (12.1, 14.9) at 4-6 years and 22.8% (20.1, 25.9) at 8-10 years. Off periods consistently caused greater functional impact than dyskinesia. Motor complications were more common among those with higher drug doses, younger age at diagnosis, female gender, and greater dopaminergic responsiveness (in challenge tests), with associations emerging 2-4 years post-diagnosis. Higher Parkinson's GRS was associated with early dyskinesia (0.026 ≤ P ≤ 0.050 from 2 to 6 years).

CONCLUSIONS

Off periods are more common and cause greater functional impairment than dyskinesia. We confirm previously reported associations between motor complications with several demographic and medication factors. Greater dopaminergic responsiveness and a higher genetic risk score are two novel and significant independent risk factors for the development of motor complications.

Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening and 15-Year Prostate Cancer Mortality: A Secondary Analysis of the CAP Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

The Cluster Randomized Trial of PSA Testing for Prostate Cancer (CAP) reported no effect of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening on prostate cancer mortality at a median 10-year follow-up (primary outcome), but the long-term effects of PSA screening on prostate cancer mortality remain unclear.

Objective

To evaluate the effect of a single invitation for PSA screening on prostate cancer-specific mortality at a median 15-year follow-up compared with no invitation for screening.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This secondary analysis of the CAP randomized clinical trial included men aged 50 to 69 years identified at 573 primary care practices in England and Wales. Primary care practices were randomized between September 25, 2001, and August 24, 2007, and men were enrolled between January 8, 2002, and January 20, 2009. Follow-up was completed on March 31, 2021.

Intervention

Men received a single invitation for a PSA screening test with subsequent diagnostic tests if the PSA level was 3.0 ng/mL or higher. The control group received standard practice (no invitation).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was reported previously. Of 8 prespecified secondary outcomes, results of 4 were reported previously. The 4 remaining prespecified secondary outcomes at 15-year follow-up were prostate cancer-specific mortality, all-cause mortality, and prostate cancer stage and Gleason grade at diagnosis.

Results

Of 415 357 eligible men (mean [SD] age, 59.0 [5.6] years), 98% were included in these analyses. Overall, 12 013 and 12 958 men with a prostate cancer diagnosis were in the intervention and control groups, respectively (15-year cumulative risk, 7.08% [95% CI, 6.95%-7.21%] and 6.94% [95% CI, 6.82%-7.06%], respectively). At a median 15-year follow-up, 1199 men in the intervention group (0.69% [95% CI, 0.65%-0.73%]) and 1451 men in the control group (0.78% [95% CI, 0.73%-0.82%]) died of prostate cancer (rate ratio [RR], 0.92 [95% CI, 0.85-0.99]; P = .03). Compared with the control, the PSA screening intervention increased detection of low-grade (Gleason score [GS] ≤6: 2.2% vs 1.6%; P < .001) and localized (T1/T2: 3.6% vs 3.1%; P < .001) disease but not intermediate (GS of 7), high-grade (GS ≥8), locally advanced (T3), or distally advanced (T4/N1/M1) tumors. There were 45 084 all-cause deaths in the intervention group (23.2% [95% CI, 23.0%-23.4%]) and 50 336 deaths in the control group (23.3% [95% CI, 23.1%-23.5%]) (RR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.94-1.01]; P = .11). Eight of the prostate cancer deaths in the intervention group (0.7%) and 7 deaths in the control group (0.5%) were related to a diagnostic biopsy or prostate cancer treatment.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial, a single invitation for PSA screening compared with standard practice without routine screening reduced prostate cancer deaths at a median follow-up of 15 years. However, the absolute reduction in deaths was small.

Trial Registration

isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN92187251.

Prodromal multiple sclerosis: considerations and future utility

A multiple sclerosis (MS) prodrome has recently been described and is characterised by increased rates of healthcare utilisation and an excess frequency of fatigue, bladder problems, sensory symptoms and pain, in the years leading up to clinical onset of disease. This important observation may have several potential applications including in the identification of risk factors for disease, the potential to delay or prevent disease onset and early opportunities to alter disease course. It may also offer possibilities for the use of risk stratification algorithms and effective population screening. If standardised, clearly defined and disease specific, an MS prodrome is also likely to have a profound influence on research and clinical trials directed at the earliest stages of disease. In order to achieve these goals, it is essential to consider experience already gleaned from other disorders. More specifically, in some chronic neurological disorders the understanding of disease pro-drome is now well advanced and has been successfully applied. However, understanding of the MS prodrome remains at an early stage with key questions including the length of the prodrome, symptom specificity and potential benefits of early intervention as yet unanswered. In this review we will explore the evidence available to date and suggest future research strategies to address unanswered questions. In addition, whilst current understanding of the MS prodrome is not yet sufficient to justify changes in public health policy or MS management, we will consider the practical utility and future application of the MS prodrome in a wider health care setting.

Life course plasma metabolomic signatures of genetic liability to Alzheimer's disease

Mechanisms through which most known Alzheimer's disease (AD) loci operate to increase AD risk remain unclear. Although Apolipoprotein E (APOE) is known to regulate lipid homeostasis, the effects of broader AD genetic liability on non-lipid metabolites remain unknown, and the earliest ages at which metabolic perturbations occur and how these change over time are yet to be elucidated. We examined the effects of AD genetic liability on the plasma metabolome across the life course. Using a reverse Mendelian randomization framework in two population-based cohorts [Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC, n = 5648) and UK Biobank (n ≤ 118,466)], we estimated the effects of genetic liability to AD on 229 plasma metabolites, at seven different life stages, spanning 8 to 73 years. We also compared the specific effects of APOE ε4 and APOE ε2 carriage on metabolites. In ALSPAC, AD genetic liability demonstrated the strongest positive associations with cholesterol-related traits, with similar magnitudes of association observed across all age groups including in childhood. In UK Biobank, the effect of AD liability on several lipid traits decreased with age. Fatty acid metabolites demonstrated positive associations with AD liability in both cohorts, though with smaller magnitudes than lipid traits. Sensitivity analyses indicated that observed effects are largely driven by the strongest AD instrument, APOE, with many contrasting effects observed on lipids and fatty acids for both ε4 and ε2 carriage. Our findings indicate pronounced effects of the ε4 and ε2 genetic variants on both pro- and anti-atherogenic lipid traits and sphingomyelins, which begin in childhood and either persist into later life or appear to change dynamically.

Use of drugs for hyperlipidaemia and diabetes and risk of primary and secondary brain tumours: nested case-control studies using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)

OBJECTIVES

Previous studies have suggested that fibrates and glitazones may have a role in brain tumour prevention. We examined if there is support for these observations using primary care records from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

DESIGN

We conducted two nested case-control studies using primary and secondary brain tumours identified within CPRD between 2000 and 2016. We selected cases and controls among the population of individuals who had been treated with any anti-diabetic or anti-hyperlipidaemic medication to reduce confounding by indication.

SETTING

Adults older than 18 years registered with a general practitioner in the UK contributing data to CPRD.

RESULTS

We identified 7496 individuals with any brain tumour (4471 primary; 3025 secondary) in total. After restricting cases and controls to those prescribed any anti-diabetic or anti-hyperlipidaemic medication, there were 1950 cases and 7791 controls in the fibrate and 480 cases with 1920 controls in the glitazone analyses. Longer use of glitazones compared with all other anti-diabetic medications was associated with a reduced risk of primary (adjusted OR (aOR) 0.89 per year, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.98), secondary (aOR 0.87 per year, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.99) or combined brain tumours (aOR 0.88 per year, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.95). There was little evidence that fibrate exposure was associated with risk of either primary or secondary brain tumours.

CONCLUSIONS

Longer exposure to glitazones was associated with reduced primary and secondary brain tumour risk. Further basic science and population-based research should explore this finding in greater detail, in terms of replication and mechanistic studies.

A genetic association study of circulating coagulation Factor VIII and von Willebrand Factor levels

Coagulation Factor VIII (FVIII) and its carrier protein von Willebrand factor (VWF) are critical to coagulation and platelet aggregation. We leveraged whole genome sequence data from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program along with TOPMed-based imputation of genotypes in additional samples to identify genetic associations with circulating FVIII and VWF levels in a single variant meta-analysis including up to 45,289 participants. Gene-based aggregate tests were implemented in TOPMed. We identified three candidate causal genes and tested their functional effect on FVIII release from human liver endothelial cells (HLECs) and VWF release from human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs). Mendelian randomization was also performed to provide evidence for causal associations of FVIII and VWF with thrombotic outcomes. We identified associations (P<5×10-9) at seven new loci for FVIII (ST3GAL4, CLEC4M, B3GNT2, ASGR1, F12, KNG1, and TREM1/NCR2) and one for VWF (B3GNT2). VWF, ABO, and STAB2 were associated with FVIII and VWF in gene-based analyses. Multi-phenotype analysis of FVIII and VWF identified another three new loci, including PDIA3. Silencing of B3GNT2 and the previously reported CD36 gene decreased release of FVIII by HLECs, while silencing of B3GNT2, CD36, and PDIA3 decreased release of VWF by HVECs. Mendelian randomization supports causal association of higher FVIII and VWF with increased risk of thrombotic outcomes. Seven new loci were identified for FVIII and one for VWF, with evidence supporting causal associations of FVIII and VWF with thrombotic outcomes. B3GNT2, CD36, and PDIA3 modulate the release of FVIII and/or VWF in vitro.

Psychosocial Health Among Young Adults With Kidney Failure: A Longitudinal Follow-up of the SPEAK (Surveying Patients Experiencing Young Adult Kidney Failure) Study

Rationale & Objective

There have been no longitudinal studies examining the evolution of psychosocial health of young adults with kidney failure as they age. We aimed to address this in the Surveying Patients Experiencing Young Adult Kidney Failure-2 (SPEAK-2) study.

Study Design

5-year follow-up longitudinal survey of the original SPEAK cohort.

Setting & Participants

16- to 30-year-olds in the UK receiving kidney replacement therapy (KRT) between 2015 and 2017 who participated in the SPEAK study.

Exposure

Kidney failure and KRT modality.

Outcomes

Psychosocial health and lifestyle behaviors.

Analytical Approach

Within-cohort changes in psychosocial health were analyzed using the paired t test, Wilcoxon signed-rank test and McNemar's test. We compared responses to the age-matched population and examined the impact of changes in KRT modality on psychological health using linear regression for continuous outcome variables as well as logistic, ordered logistic and multinomial logistic regression for binary, ordered categorical and unordered categorical variables, respectively.

Results

We obtained 158 survey responses; 129 had previously responded to SPEAK. Of these, 90% had a kidney transplant. Compared to the general population, respondents were less likely to be married or have children and were more likely to be living with their parents. Respondents had nearly 15 times greater odds of being unable to work due to health (odds ratio [OR] = 14.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 8.0-26.01; P < 0.001). Respondents had poorer quality of life and mental wellbeing and were more likely to report psychological problems (OR = 5.37; 95% CI, 3.45-8.35; P < 0.001). A negative association between remaining on or moving to dialysis and psychosocial health was observed, although this was attenuated when controlling for the psychosocial state in SPEAK.

Limitations

Low response rate resulting in imprecise and potentially biased estimates and impact of COVID-19 pandemic while survey was active on psychosocial health.

Conclusions

Young adults with kidney failure have persistent poorer psychosocial health compared to their healthy peers as they age. Our findings also suggest a potential causal relationship between KRT modality and psychosocial health.

Two sample Mendelian Randomisation using an outcome from a multilevel model of disease progression

Identifying factors that are causes of disease progression, especially in neurodegenerative diseases, is of considerable interest. Disease progression can be described as a trajectory of outcome over time-for example, a linear trajectory having both an intercept (severity at time zero) and a slope (rate of change). A technique for identifying causal relationships between one exposure and one outcome in observational data whilst avoiding bias due to confounding is two sample Mendelian Randomisation (2SMR). We consider a multivariate approach to 2SMR using a multilevel model for disease progression to estimate the causal effect an exposure has on the intercept and slope. We carry out a simulation study comparing a naïve univariate 2SMR approach to a multivariate 2SMR approach with one exposure that effects both the intercept and slope of an outcome that changes linearly with time since diagnosis. The simulation study results, across six different scenarios, for both approaches were similar with no evidence against a non-zero bias and appropriate coverage of the 95% confidence intervals (for intercept 93.4-96.2% and the slope 94.5-96.0%). The multivariate approach gives a better joint coverage of both the intercept and slope effects. We also apply our method to two Parkinson's cohorts to examine the effect body mass index has on disease progression. There was no strong evidence that BMI affects disease progression, however the confidence intervals for both intercept and slope were wide.

The epidemiology of Parkinson's disease

The epidemiology of Parkinson's disease shows marked variations in time, geography, ethnicity, age, and sex. Internationally, prevalence has increased over and above demographic changes. There are several potential reasons for this increase, including the decline in other competing causes of death. Whether incidence is increasing, especially in women or in many low-income and middle-income countries where there is a shortage of high-quality data, is less certain. Parkinson's disease is more common in older people and men, and a variety of environmental factors have been suggested to explain why, including exposure to neurotoxic agents. Within countries, there appear to be ethnic differences in disease risk, although these differences might reflect differential access to health care. The cause of Parkinson's disease is multifactorial, and involves genetic and environmental factors. Both risk factors (eg, pesticides) and protective factors (eg, physical activity and tendency to smoke) have been postulated to have a role in Parkinson's disease, although elucidating causality is complicated by the long prodromal period. Following the establishment of public health strategies to prevent cardiovascular diseases and some cancers, chronic neurodegenerative diseases such as Parkinson's disease and dementia are gaining a deserved higher priority. Multipronged prevention strategies are required that tackle population-based primary prevention, high-risk targeted secondary prevention, and Parkinson's disease-modifying therapies for tertiary prevention. Future international collaborations will be required to triangulate evidence from basic, applied, and epidemiological research, thereby enhancing the understanding and prevention of Parkinson's disease at a global level.

Estimating dose-response relationships for vitamin D with coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality: observational and Mendelian randomisation analyses

BACKGROUND

Randomised trials of vitamin D supplementation for cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality have generally reported null findings. However, generalisability of results to individuals with low vitamin D status is unclear. We aimed to characterise dose-response relationships between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations and risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality in observational and Mendelian randomisation frameworks.

METHODS

Observational analyses were undertaken using data from 33 prospective studies comprising 500 962 individuals with no known history of coronary heart disease or stroke at baseline. Mendelian randomisation analyses were performed in four population-based cohort studies (UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD, and two Copenhagen population-based studies) comprising 386 406 middle-aged individuals of European ancestries, including 33 546 people who developed coronary heart disease, 18 166 people who had a stroke, and 27 885 people who died. Primary outcomes were coronary heart disease, defined as fatal ischaemic heart disease (International Classification of Diseases 10th revision code I20-I25) or non-fatal myocardial infarction (I21-I23); stroke, defined as any cerebrovascular disease (I60-I69); and all-cause mortality.

FINDINGS

Observational analyses suggested inverse associations between incident coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality outcomes with 25(OH)D concentration at low 25(OH)D concentrations. In population-wide genetic analyses, there were no associations of genetically predicted 25(OH)D with coronary heart disease (odds ratio [OR] per 10 nmol/L higher genetically-predicted 25(OH)D concentration 0·98, 95% CI 0·95-1·01), stroke (1·01, [0·97-1·05]), or all-cause mortality (0·99, 0·95-1·02). Null findings were also observed in genetic analyses for cause-specific mortality outcomes, and in stratified genetic analyses for all outcomes at all observed levels of 25(OH)D concentrations.

INTERPRETATION

Stratified Mendelian randomisation analyses suggest a lack of causal relationship for 25(OH)D concentrations with both cardiovascular and mortality outcomes for individuals at all levels of 25(OH)D. Our findings suggest that substantial reductions in mortality and cardiovascular morbidity due to long-term low-dose vitamin D supplementation are unlikely even if targeted at individuals with low vitamin D status.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, Health Data Research UK, Cancer Research UK, and International Agency for Research on Cancer.

The bidirectional effects between cognitive ability and brain morphology: A life course Mendelian randomization analysis

Introduction

Little is understood about the dynamic interplay between brain morphology and cognitive ability across the life course. Additionally, most existing research has focused on global morphology measures such as estimated total intracranial volume, mean thickness, and total surface area.

Methods

Mendelian randomization was used to estimate the bidirectional effects between cognitive ability, global and regional measures of cortical thickness and surface area, estimated total intracranial volume, total white matter, and the volume of subcortical structures (N=37,864). Analyses were stratified for developmental periods (childhood, early adulthood, mid-to-late adulthood; age range: 8-81 years).

Results

The earliest effects were observed in childhood and early adulthood in the frontoparietal lobes. A bidirectional relationship was identified between higher cognitive ability, larger estimated total intracranial volume (childhood, mid-to-late adulthood) and total surface area (all life stages). A thicker posterior cingulate cortex and a larger surface area in the caudal middle frontal cortex and temporal pole were associated with greater cognitive ability. Contrary, a thicker temporal pole was associated with lower cognitive ability.

Discussion

Stable effects of cognitive ability on brain morphology across the life course suggests that childhood is potentially an important window for intervention.

NMR metabolomic modelling of age and lifespan: a multi-cohort analysis

Metabolomic age models have been proposed for the study of biological aging, however they have not been widely validated. We aimed to assess the performance of newly developed and existing nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR) metabolomic age models for prediction of chronological age (CA), mortality, and age-related disease. 98 metabolic variables were measured in blood from nine UK and Finnish cohort studies (N ≈ 31,000 individuals, age range 24-86 years). We used non-linear and penalised regression to model CA and time to all-cause mortality. We examined associations of four new and two previously published metabolomic age models, with ageing risk factors and phenotypes. Within the UK Biobank (N≈ 102,000), we tested prediction of CA, incident disease (cardiovascular disease (CVD), type-2 diabetes mellitus, cancer, dementia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) and all-cause mortality. Cross-validated Pearson's r between metabolomic age models and CA ranged between 0.47-0.65 in the training set (mean absolute error: 8-9 years). Metabolomic age models, adjusted for CA, were associated with C-reactive protein, and inversely associated with glomerular filtration rate. Positively associated risk factors included obesity, diabetes, smoking, and physical inactivity. In UK Biobank, correlations of metabolomic age with chronological age were modest (r = 0.29-0.33), yet all metabolomic model scores predicted mortality (hazard ratios of 1.01 to 1.06 / metabolomic age year) and CVD, after adjustment for CA. While metabolomic age models were only moderately associated with CA in an independent population, they provided additional prediction of morbidity and mortality over CA itself, suggesting their wider applicability.

Comparative Effectiveness of Dynamic Treatment Strategies for Medication Use and Dosage: Emulating a Target Trial Using Observational Data

BACKGROUND

Availability of detailed data from electronic health records (EHRs) has increased the potential to examine the comparative effectiveness of dynamic treatment strategies using observational data. Inverse probability (IP) weighting of dynamic marginal structural models can control for time-varying confounders. However, IP weights for continuous treatments may be sensitive to model choice.

METHODS

We describe a target trial comparing strategies for treating anemia with darbepoetin in hemodialysis patients using EHR data from the UK Renal Registry 2004 to 2016. Patients received a specified dose (microgram/week) or did not receive darbepoetin. We compared 4 methods for modeling time-varying treatment: (A) logistic regression for zero dose, standard linear regression for log dose; (B) logistic regression for zero dose, heteroscedastic linear regression for log dose; (C) logistic regression for zero dose, heteroscedastic linear regression for log dose, multinomial regression for patients who recently received very low or high doses; and (D) ordinal logistic regression.

RESULTS

For this dataset, method (C) was the only approach that provided a robust estimate of the mortality hazard ratio (HR), with less-extreme weights in a fully weighted analysis and no substantial change of the HR point estimate after weight truncation. After truncating IP weights at the 95th percentile, estimates were similar across the methods.

CONCLUSIONS

EHR data can be used to emulate target trials estimating the comparative effectiveness of dynamic strategies adjusting treatment to evolving patient characteristics. However, model checking, monitoring of large weights, and adaptation of model strategies to account for these is essential if an aspect of treatment is continuous.

Investigation of the genetic aetiology of Lewy body diseases with and without dementia

Up to 80% of Parkinson's disease patients develop dementia, but time to dementia varies widely from motor symptom onset. Dementia with Lewy bodies presents with clinical features similar to Parkinson's disease dementia, but cognitive impairment precedes or coincides with motor onset. It remains controversial whether dementia with Lewy bodies and Parkinson's disease dementia are distinct conditions or represent part of a disease spectrum. The biological mechanisms underlying disease heterogeneity, in particular the development of dementia, remain poorly understood, but will likely be key to understanding disease pathways and ultimately therapy development. Previous genome-wide association studies in Parkinson's disease and dementia with Lewy bodies/Parkinson's disease dementia have identified risk loci differentiating patients from controls. We collated data for 7,804 patients of European ancestry from Tracking Parkinson's (PRoBaND), The Oxford Discovery Cohort, and AMP-PD. We conducted a discrete phenotype genome-wide association studies comparing Lewy body diseases with and without dementia to decode disease heterogeneity by investigating the genetic drivers of dementia in Lewy body diseases. We found that risk alleles rs429358 tagging APOEe4 and rs7668531 near the MMRN1 and SNCA-AS1 genes, increase the odds of developing dementia and that an intronic variant rs17442721 tagging LRRK2 G2019S, on chromosome 12 is protective against dementia. These results should be validated in autopsy confirmed cases in future studies.

Predictors and prognosis of population-based subjective cognitive decline: longitudinal evidence from the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS)

OBJECTIVES

To understand associations between the subjective experience of cognitive decline and objective cognition. This subjective experience is often conceptualised as an early step towards neurodegeneration, but this has not been scrutinised at the population level. An alternative explanation is poor meta-cognition, the extreme of which is seen in functional cognitive disorder (FCD).

DESIGN

Prospective cohort (Caerphilly Prospective Study).

SETTING

Population-based, South Wales, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

This men-only study began in 1979; 1225 men participated at an average age of 73 in 2002-2004, including assessments of simple subjective cognitive decline (sSCD, defined as a subjective report of worsening memory or concentration). Dementia outcomes were followed up to 2012-2014. Data on non-completers was additionally obtained from death certificates and local health records.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was incident dementia over 10 years. Secondary outcome measures included prospective change in objective cognition and cross-sectional cognitive internal inconsistency (the existence of a cognitive ability at some times, and its absence at other times, with no intervening explanatory factors except for focus of attention).

RESULTS

sSCD was common (30%) and only weakly associated with prior objective cognitive decline (sensitivity 36% (95% CI 30 to 42) and specificity 72% (95% CI 68 to 75)). Independent predictors of sSCD were older age, poor sleep quality and higher trait anxiety. Those with sSCD did not have excess cognitive internal inconsistency, but results suggested a mild attentional deficit. sSCD did not predict objective cognitive change (linear regression coefficient -0.01 (95% CI -0.13 to 0.15)) nor dementia (odds ratio 1.35 (0.61 to 2.99)) 10 years later.

CONCLUSIONS

sSCD is weakly associated with prior objective cognitive decline and does not predict future cognition. Prior sleep difficulties and anxiety were the most robust predictors of sSCD. sSCD in the absence of objective decline appears to be a highly prevalent example of poor meta-cognition (ie, poor self-awareness of cognitive performance), which could be a driver for later FCD.

Quality of relationships in mothers and their partners in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children

Quality of relationship between partners is associated with a wide range of physical and psychological outcomes like anxiety and depression. There are relatively few longitudinal studies with detailed and repeated measures for quality of relationship, particularly in both partners. The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) is a large birth cohort study in the UK with five post-partum repeated measures of quality of relationship between mothers and their partners assessed using the Intimate Bond Measure (IBM). The Measure includes two subscales named "Care" and "Control". These were measured at 2.75, 6, 9, 12, and 18 years post-partum (baseline N for mothers: 8675; baseline N for partners: 5499). The aims of this data note are to provide a comprehensive overview on the existing IBM data in ALSPAC and to describe both its strengths and limitations for future users. The internal consistency of the subscales were high (Cronbach's alpha 0.95 and 0.88 for the Care and Control subscales) in both mothers and their partners at the baseline. In the Care subscale, all 12 items were highly correlated with the overall score (r>0.62) at the baseline, but in the Control subscale there were three items that had relatively low correlations with the total subscale (r<0.46). This should be taken into account in future research. The longitudinal nature of this data on both mothers and partners will enable detailed explorations of the causes and consequences of differences in quality of relationship.

Suicide under the Nazi-regime: A Case-control Study among Amsterdam Jews

OBJECTIVE

Jewish suicides increased heavily under Nazi-rule. This research investigated risk factors for dying from suicide according to sociodemographic characteristics, local context, and time periods.

METHODS

Nazi-registration of Amsterdam residents of Jewish origin in 1941 linked to death and suicide lists. The added suicides after the Nazi-invasion (1940, n = 115) and the suicides when deportation trains ran (1942/1943, n = 182) were each matched to 25 controls using sex and age. Suicide was compared across migrant, occupational, marital, and religious status and neighborhood religiosity. Conditional logistic regression was applied, stratified by time period.

RESULTS

In 1940, immigrant (cf. native born, odds ratio (OR) 1.89, 95%CI 1.21-2.96, p = .005) and married Jews (cf. previously married) showed higher suicide risk; members of Israelite Congregations (cf. nonmembers, OR 0.35, 95%CI 0.22-0.56, p < .001) showed reduced risk. Jews living in low synagogue rate neighborhoods showed higher risk compared to those living in neighborhoods without any synagogues (OR 2.48, 95%CI 1.65-3.72, p < .001) while those living in high synagogue rate neighborhoods showed no increased risk (OR 0.58, 95%CI 0.30-1.11, p = .10). In 1942/1943, the association between religious status (OR 1.07, 95%CI 0.67, 1.72, p = .77), synagogue rate (OR 1.27, 95%CI 0.91-1.77, p = .16), immigrant status (OR 1.30, 95%CI 0.92-1.84, p = .14) and suicide attenuated; Jews in managerial/professional occupations (cf. workers) or unmarried (cf. married) showed higher risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In 1940, immigrants' higher suicide risk likely indicates greater fear of Nazis while religious affiliation's lower risk might indicate a protective effect of religious belief. In 1942/1943, risk differences markedly attenuated likely indicating increased fear of Nazis among all Jews.HighlightsReligiously affiliated Jews showed reduced risk of dying from suicide after the Nazi-invasionJewish immigrants showed higher risk of dying from suicide after the Nazi-invasionBy 1942/1943, these risks attenuated indicating fear of the Nazis spread and nullified religion's protection.

Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy.

METHODS

For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU.

FINDINGS

For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) at 60-69 years, and 1·39 (1·29-1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier.

INTERPRETATION

Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3-4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

Genome-wide Analysis of Motor Progression in Parkinson Disease

Background and Objectives

The genetic basis of Parkinson disease (PD) motor progression is largely unknown. Previous studies of the genetics of PD progression have included small cohorts and shown a limited overlap with genetic PD risk factors from case-control studies. Here, we have studied genomic variation associated with PD motor severity and early-stage progression in large longitudinal cohorts to help to define the biology of PD progression and potential new drug targets.

Methods

We performed a GWAS meta-analysis of early PD motor severity and progression up to 3 years from study entry. We used linear mixed-effect models with additive effects, corrected for age at diagnosis, sex, and the first 5 genetic principal components to assess variability in axial, limb, and total Movement Disorder Society-Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) III scores.

Results

We included 3,572 unrelated European ancestry patients with PD from 5 observational cohorts and 1 drug trial. The average AAO was 62.6 years (SD = 9.83), and 63% of participants were male. We found an average increase in the total MDS-UPDRS III score of 2.3 points/year. We identified an association between PD axial motor progression and variation at the GJA5 locus at 1q12 (β = -0.25, SE = 0.04, p = 3.4e-10). Exploration of the regulation of gene expression in the region (cis-expression quantitative trait loci [eQTL] analysis) showed that the lead variant was associated with expression of ACP6, a lysophosphatidic acid phosphatase that regulates mitochondrial lipid biosynthesis (cis-eQTL p-values in blood and brain RNA expression data sets: <10-14 in eQTLGen and 10-7 in PsychEncode).

Discussion

Our study highlights the potential role of mitochondrial lipid homeostasis in the progression of PD, which may be important in establishing new drug targets that might modify disease progression.

Interrupted time series evaluation of the impact of a dementia wellbeing service on avoidable hospital admissions for people with dementia in Bristol, England

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether a dementia wellbeing service (DWS) signposting people with dementia to community services decreases the rate of avoidable hospital admissions, in-hospital mortality, complexity of admissions (number of comorbidities) or length of stay.

METHODS

Interrupted time series analysis to estimate the effects of the DWS on hospital outcomes. We included all unplanned admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions ('avoidable hospital admissions') with a dementia diagnosis recorded in the Hospital Episode Statistics. The intervention region was compared with a demographically similar control region in the 2 years before and 3 years after the implementation of the new service (October 2013 to September 2018).

RESULTS

There was no strong evidence that admission rates reduced and only weak evidence that the trend in average length of stay reduced slowly over time. In-hospital mortality decreased immediately after the introduction of the dementia wellbeing service compared to comparator areas (x0.64, 95% CI 0.42, 0.97, p = 0.037) but attenuated over the following years. The rate of increase in comorbidities also appeared to slow after the service began; they were similar to comparator areas by September 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no major impact of the DWS on avoidable hospital admissions, although there was weak evidence for slightly shorter length of stay and reduced complexity of hospital admissions. These findings may or may not reflect a true benefit of the service and require further investigation. The DWS was established to improve quality of dementia care; reducing hospital admissions was never its sole purpose. More targeted interventions may be required to reduce hospital admissions for people with dementia.

Antidepressants in pregnancy: applying causal epidemiological methods to understand service-use outcomes in women and long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes in exposed children

Background

Antidepressants are commonly prescribed during pregnancy, despite a lack of evidence from randomised trials on the benefits or risks. Some studies have reported associations of antidepressants during pregnancy with adverse offspring neurodevelopment, but whether or not such associations are causal is unclear.

Objectives

To study the associations of antidepressants for depression in pregnancy with outcomes using multiple methods to strengthen causal inference.

Design

This was an observational cohort design using multiple methods to strengthen causal inference, including multivariable regression, propensity score matching, instrumental variable analysis, negative control exposures, comparison across indications and exposure discordant pregnancies analysis.

Setting

This took place in UK general practice.

Participants

Participants were pregnant women with depression.

Interventions

The interventions were initiation of antidepressants in pregnancy compared with no initiation, and continuation of antidepressants in pregnancy compared with discontinuation.

Main outcome measures

The maternal outcome measures were the use of primary care and secondary mental health services during pregnancy, and during four 6-month follow-up periods up to 24 months after pregnancy, and antidepressant prescription status 24 months following pregnancy. The child outcome measures were diagnosis of autism, diagnosis of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and intellectual disability.

Data sources

UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

Results

Data on 80,103 pregnancies were used to study maternal primary care outcomes and were linked to 34,274 children with at least 4-year follow-up for neurodevelopmental outcomes. Women who initiated or continued antidepressants during pregnancy were more likely to have contact with primary and secondary health-care services during and after pregnancy and more likely to be prescribed an antidepressant 2 years following the end of pregnancy than women who did not initiate or continue antidepressants during pregnancy (odds ratioinitiation 2.16, 95% confidence interval 1.95 to 2.39; odds ratiocontinuation 2.40, 95% confidence interval 2.27 to 2.53). There was little evidence for any substantial association with autism (odds ratiomultivariableregression 1.10, 95% confidence interval 0.90 to 1.35; odds ratiopropensityscore 1.06, 95% confidence interval 0.84 to 1.32), attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (odds ratiomultivariableregression 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.80 to 1.29; odds ratiopropensityscore 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.75 to 1.25) or intellectual disability (odds ratiomultivariableregression 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 1.19; odds ratiopropensityscore 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.61 to 1.31) in children of women who continued antidepressants compared with those who discontinued antidepressants. There was inconsistent evidence of an association between initiation of antidepressants in pregnancy and diagnosis of autism in offspring (odds ratiomultivariableregression 1.23, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.78; odds ratiopropensityscore 1.64, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 2.66) but not attention deficit hyperactivity disorder or intellectual disability; however, but results were imprecise owing to smaller numbers.

Limitations

Several causal-inference analyses lacked precision owing to limited numbers. In addition, adherence to the prescribed treatment was not measured.

Conclusions

Women prescribed antidepressants during pregnancy had greater service use during and after pregnancy than those not prescribed antidepressants. The evidence against any substantial association with autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder or intellectual disability in the children of women who continued compared with those who discontinued antidepressants in pregnancy is reassuring. Potential association of initiation of antidepressants during pregnancy with offspring autism needs further investigation.

Future work

Further research on larger samples could increase the robustness and precision of these findings. These methods applied could be a template for future pharmaco-epidemiological investigation of other pregnancy-related prescribing safety concerns.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (15/80/19) and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 15. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Genetic meta-analysis of levodopa induced dyskinesia in Parkinson's disease

The genetic basis of levodopa-induced-dyskinesia (LiD) is poorly understood, and there have been few well-powered genome-wide studies. We performed a genome-wide survival meta-analyses to study the effect of genetic variation on the development of LiD in five separate longitudinal cohorts, and meta-analysed the results. We included 2784 PD patients, of whom 14.6% developed LiD. We found female sex (HR = 1.35, SE = 0.11, P = 0.007) and younger age at onset (HR = 1.8, SE = 0.14, P = 2 × 10-5) increased the probability of developing LiD. We identified three genetic loci significantly associated with time-to-LiD onset. rs72673189 on chromosome 1 (HR = 2.77, SE = 0.18, P = 1.53 × 10-8) located at the LRP8 locus, rs189093213 on chromosome 4 (HR = 3.06, SE = 0.19, P = 2.81 × 10-9) in the non-coding RNA LINC02353 locus, and rs180924818 on chromosome 16 (HR = 3.13, SE = 0.20, P = 6.27 × 10-9) in the XYLT1 locus. Based on a functional annotation analysis on chromosome 1, we determined that changes in DNAJB4 gene expression, close to LRP8, are an additional potential cause of increased susceptibility to LiD. Baseline anxiety status was significantly associated with LiD (OR = 1.14, SE = 0.03, P = 7.4 × 10-5). Finally, we performed a candidate variant analysis of previously reported loci, and found that genetic variability in ANKK1 (rs1800497, HR = 1.27, SE = 0.09, P = 8.89 × 10-3) and BDNF (rs6265, HR = 1.21, SE = 0.10, P = 4.95 × 10-2) loci were significantly associated with time to LiD in our large meta-analysis.

Prehabilitation for frail patients undergoing total hip or knee replacement: protocol for the Joint PREP feasibility randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Approximately, 8% of community-based adults aged ≥ 50 years in England are frail. Frailty has been found to be associated with poorer outcomes after joint replacement. Targeting frailty preoperatively via exercise and protein supplementation has the potential to improve outcomes for people undergoing joint replacement. Prior to proceeding with a randomised controlled trial (RCT), a feasibility study is necessary to address key uncertainties and explore how to optimise trial design and delivery.

METHODS

The Joint PRehabilitation with Exercise and Protein (Joint PREP) study is a feasibility study for a multicentre, two-arm, parallel group, pragmatic, RCT to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of prehabilitation for frail patients undergoing total hip or knee replacement. Sixty people who are ≥ 65 years of age, frail according to the self-reported Groningen Frailty Indicator, and scheduled to undergo total hip or knee replacement at 2-3 hospitals in England and Wales will be recruited and randomly allocated on a 1:1 ratio to the intervention or usual care group. The usual care group will receive the standard care at their hospital. The intervention group will be given a daily protein supplement and will be asked to follow a home-based, tailored daily exercise programme for 12 weeks before their operation, in addition to usual care. Participants will be supported through six follow-up calls from a physiotherapist during the 12-week intervention period. Study questionnaires will be administered at baseline and 12 weeks after randomisation. Embedded qualitative research with patients will explore their experiences of participating, reasons for nonparticipation, and/or reasons for withdrawal or treatment discontinuation. Primary feasibility outcomes will be eligibility and recruitment rates, adherence to the intervention, and acceptability of the trial and the intervention.

DISCUSSION

This study will generate important data regarding the feasibility of a RCT to evaluate a prehabilitation intervention for frail patients undergoing total hip and knee replacement. A future phase-3 RCT will determine if preoperative exercise and protein supplementation improve the recovery of frail patients after primary joint replacement.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN11121506, registered 29 September 2022.

Organisational factors associated with hospital costs and patient mortality in the 365 days following hip fracture in England and Wales (REDUCE): a record-linkage cohort study

BACKGROUND

Hip fracture care delivery varies between hospitals, which might explain variations in patient outcomes and health costs. The aim of this study was to identify hospital-level organisational factors associated with long-term patient outcomes and costs after hip fracture.

METHODS

REDUCE was a record-linkage cohort study in which national databases for all patients aged 60 years and older who sustained a hip fracture in England and Wales were linked with hospital metrics from 18 organisational data sources. Multilevel models identified organisational factors associated with the case-mix adjusted primary outcomes: cumulative all-cause mortality, days spent in hospital, and inpatient costs over 365 days after hip fracture.

FINDINGS

Between April 1, 2016, and March 31, 2019, 178 757 patients with an index hip fracture were identified from 172 hospitals in England and Wales. 126 278 (70·6%) were female, 52 479 (29·4%) were male, and median age was 84 years (IQR 77-89) in England and 83 years (77-89) in Wales. 365 days after hip fracture, 50 354 (28·2%) patients had died. Patients spent a median 21 days (IQR 11-41) in hospital, incurring costs of £14 642 (95% CI 14 600-14 683) per patient, ranging from £10 867 (SD 5880) to £23 188 (17 223) between hospitals. 11 organisational factors were independently associated with mortality, 24 with number of days in hospital, and 25 with inpatient costs. Having all patients assessed by an orthogeriatrician within 72 h of admission was associated with a mean cost saving of £529 (95% CI 148-910) per patient and a lower 365-day mortality (odds ratio 0·85 [95% CI 0·76-0·94]). Consultant orthogeriatrician attendance at clinical governance meetings was associated with cost savings of £356 (95% CI 188-525) and 1·47 fewer days (95% CI 0·89-2·05) in the hospital in the 365 days after hip fracture per patient. The provision of physiotherapy to patients on weekends was associated with a cost saving of £676 (95% CI 67-1285) per patient and with 2·32 fewer days (0·35-4·29) in hospital in the 365 days after hip fracture.

INTERPRETATION

Multiple, potentially modifiable hospital-level organisational factors associated with important clinical outcomes and inpatient costs were identified that should inform initiatives to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of hip fracture services.

FUNDING

Versus Arthritis.

Patients' recovery of mobility and return to original residence after hip fracture are associated with multiple modifiable components of hospital service organisation: the REDUCE record-linkage cohort study in England and Wales

BACKGROUND

Hip fractures are devastating injuries causing disability, dependence, and institutionalisation, yet hospital care is highly variable. This study aimed to determine hospital organisational factors associated with recovery of mobility and change in patient residence after hip fracture.

METHODS

A cohort of patients aged 60 + years in England and Wales, who sustained a hip fracture from 2016 to 2019 was examined. Patient-level Hospital Episodes Statistics, National Hip Fracture Database, and mortality records were linked to 101 factors derived from 18 hospital-level organisational metrics. After adjustment for patient case-mix, multilevel models were used to identify organisational factors associated with patient residence at discharge, and mobility and residence at 120 days after hip fracture.

RESULTS

Across 172 hospitals, 165,350 patients survived to discharge, of whom 163,230 (99%) had post-hospital discharge destination recorded. 18,323 (11%) died within 120 days. Among 147,027 survivors, 58,344 (40%) across 143 hospitals had their residence recorded, and 56,959 (39%) across 140 hospitals had their mobility recorded, at 120 days. Nineteen organisational factors independently predicted residence on hospital discharge e.g., return to original residence was 31% (95% confidence interval, CI:17-43%) more likely if the anaesthetic lead for hip fracture had time allocated in their job plan, and 8-13% more likely if hip fracture service clinical governance meetings were attended by an orthopaedic surgeon, physiotherapist or anaesthetist. Seven organisational factors independently predicted residence at 120 days. Patients returning to their pre-fracture residence was 26% (95%CI:4-42%) more likely if hospitals had a dedicated hip fracture ward, and 20% (95%CI:8-30%) more likely if treatment plans were proactively discussed with patients and families on admission. Seventeen organisational factors predicted mobility at 120 days. More patients re-attained their pre-fracture mobility in hospitals where (i) care involved an orthogeriatrician (15% [95%CI:1-28%] improvement), (ii) general anaesthesia was usually accompanied by a nerve block (7% [95%CI:1-12%], and (iii) bedside haemoglobin testing was routine in theatre recovery (13% [95%CI:6-20%]).

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple, potentially modifiable, organisational factors are associated with patient outcomes up to 120 days after a hip fracture, these factors if causal should be targeted by service improvement initiatives to reduce variability, improve hospital hip fracture care, and maximise patient independence.

Caregiver burden in Parkinson's disease: a mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

Providing informal care for a person with Parkinson's disease (PD) can be a demanding process affecting several dimensions of a caregiver's life and potentially causing caregiver burden. Despite the emerging literature on caregiver burden in people with PD, little is known about the inter-relationship between quantitative and qualitative findings. Filling this knowledge gap will provide a more holistic approach to develop and design innovations aiming at reducing or even preventing caregiver burden. This study aimed to characterize the determinants of caregiver burden among informal caregivers of persons with PD, in order to facilitate the development of tailored interventions that reduce caregiver burden.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study in The Netherlands using a sequential mixed methods approach, entailing a quantitative study of 504 persons with PD and their informal caregivers as well as a qualitative study in a representative subsample of 17 informal caregivers. The quantitative study included a standardized questionnaire of caregiver burden (Zarit Burden Inventory) and patient-related (Beck Depression Inventory, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Acceptance of Illness Scale, MDS-Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale part II on motor functions in daily life, Self-assessment Parkinson's Disease Disability Score), caregiver-related (Brief Coping Orientation to Problems Experience Inventory, Caregiver Activation Measurement, Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support) and interpersonal determinants (sociodemographic variables including among others gender, age, education, marital status and working status). The qualitative study consisted of semi-structured interviews. Multivariable regression and thematic analysis were used to analyse quantitative and qualitative data, respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 337 caregivers were women (66.9%), and the majority of people with PD were men (N = 321, 63.7%). The mean age of persons with PD was 69.9 (standard deviation [SD] 8.1) years, and the mean disease duration was 7.2 (SD 5.2) years. A total of 366 (72.6%) persons with PD had no active employment. The mean age of informal caregivers was 67.5 (SD 9.2) years. Most informal caregivers were female (66.9%), had no active employment (65.9%) and were the spouse of the person with PD (90.7%). The mean Zarit Burden Inventory score was 15.9 (SD 11.7). The quantitative study showed that a lack of active employment of the person affected by PD was associated with a higher caregiver burden. The qualitative study revealed cognitive decline and psychological or emotional deficits of the person with PD as additional patient-related determinants of higher caregiver burden. The following caregiver-related and interpersonal determinants were associated with higher caregiver burden: low social support (quantitative study), concerns about the future (qualitative study), the caregiving-induced requirement of restrictions in everyday life (qualitative study), changes in the relationship with the person with PD (qualitative study) and a problem-focused or avoidant coping style (both studies). Integration of both data strands revealed that qualitative findings expanded quantitative findings by (1) distinguishing between the impact of the relationship with the person with PD and the relationship with others on perceived social support, (2) revealing the impact of non-motor symptoms next to motor symptoms and (3) revealing the following additional factors impacting caregiver burden: concern about the future, perceived restrictions and limitations in performing daily activities due to the disease, and negative feelings and emotional well-being. Qualitative findings were discordant with the quantitative finding demonstrating that problem-focused was associated with a higher caregiver burden. Factor analyses showed three sub-dimensions of the Zarit Burden Inventory: (i) role intensity and resource strain, (2) social restriction and anger and (3) self-criticism. Quantitative analysis showed that avoidant coping was a determinant for all three subscales, whereas problem-solved coping and perceived social support were significant predictors on two subscales, role intensity and resource strain and self-criticism.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden experienced by informal caregivers of persons with PD is determined by a complex interplay of patient-related, caregiver-related and interpersonal characteristics. Our study highlights the utility of a mixed-methods approach to unravel the multidimensional burden experienced by informal caregivers of persons with chronic disease. We also offer starting points for the development of a tailored supportive approach for caregivers.

Determinants of coping styles of people with Parkinson's Disease

Little is known about how people with Parkinson's disease (PD) cope with stressful life events. We examined the determinants of specific coping strategies and whether specific choices have any impact on quality of life (QoL). We recruited patients with PD who had been seen at a neurology outpatient clinic at least once during the past year as part of the PRIME-NL cohort study. Coping was measured using the Ways of Coping Questionnaire (WCQ) and QoL was measured using the Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39). 977 out of 988 participants completed the questionnaires and 935 participants were diagnosed with PD. Factor analysis was undertaken to test if ways of coping were similar or different to previous findings in a PD population. We used linear regression analyses to examine predictors of coping styles. We then used multivariable linear regression to test how coping style was associated with the domains of QoL conditional on potential confounders. The five coping styles identified by the factor analysis were: "taking action and emphasizing the positive", "distancing and fantasizing", "goal oriented and planful problem solving", "seeking social support" and "avoidance and acceptance". Age, gender, education and anxiety were associated with the type of coping strategy. For example, higher education was associated with more active coping strategies (e.g. β = 4.39, p < 0.001 for goal oriented). Conditional on other confounders, most coping strategies had little effect on QoL domains. These findings demonstrate that coping behavior of people with PD is influenced by psychological status and personal traits. However, there was only a modest effect of coping behavior on QoL. Future research needs to test whether the enhancement or discouragement of certain coping strategies is feasible and can enhance QoL.

Whole genome analysis of plasma fibrinogen reveals population-differentiated genetic regulators with putative liver roles

Genetic studies have identified numerous regions associated with plasma fibrinogen levels in Europeans, yet missing heritability and limited inclusion of non-Europeans necessitates further studies with improved power and sensitivity. Compared with array-based genotyping, whole genome sequencing (WGS) data provides better coverage of the genome and better representation of non-European variants. To better understand the genetic landscape regulating plasma fibrinogen levels, we meta-analyzed WGS data from the NHLBI's Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program (n=32,572), with array-based genotype data from the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) Consortium (n=131,340) imputed to the TOPMed or Haplotype Reference Consortium panel. We identified 18 loci that have not been identified in prior genetic studies of fibrinogen. Of these, four are driven by common variants of small effect with reported MAF at least 10% higher in African populations. Three ( SERPINA1, ZFP36L2 , and TLR10) signals contain predicted deleterious missense variants. Two loci, SOCS3 and HPN , each harbor two conditionally distinct, non-coding variants. The gene region encoding the protein chain subunits ( FGG;FGB;FGA ), contains 7 distinct signals, including one novel signal driven by rs28577061, a variant common (MAF=0.180) in African reference panels but extremely rare (MAF=0.008) in Europeans. Through phenome-wide association studies in the VA Million Veteran Program, we found associations between fibrinogen polygenic risk scores and thrombotic and inflammatory disease phenotypes, including an association with gout. Our findings demonstrate the utility of WGS to augment genetic discovery in diverse populations and offer new insights for putative mechanisms of fibrinogen regulation.

Key Points

Largest and most diverse genetic study of plasma fibrinogen identifies 54 regions (18 novel), housing 69 conditionally distinct variants (20 novel).Sufficient power achieved to identify signal driven by African population variant.Links to (1) liver enzyme, blood cell and lipid genetic signals, (2) liver regulatory elements, and (3) thrombotic and inflammatory disease.

Genetic meta-analysis of levodopa induced dyskinesia in Parkinson's disease

Importance

Forty percent of Parkinson's disease patients develop levodopa-induced-dyskinesia (LiD) within 4 years of starting levodopa. The genetic basis of LiD remains poorly understood, and there have been few well powered studies.

Objective

To discover common genetic variants in the PD population that increase the probability of developing LiD.

Design setting and Participants

We performed survival analyses to study the development of LiD in 5 separate longitudinal cohorts. We performed a meta-analysis to combine the results of genetic association from each study based on a fixed effects model weighting the effect sizes by the inverse of their standard error. The selection criteria was specific to each cohort. We studied individuals that were genotyped from each cohort and that passed our analysis specific inclusion criteria.

Main Outcomes and Measures

We measured the time for PD patients on levodopa treatment to develop LiD as defined by reaching a score higher or equal than 2 from the MDS-UPDRS part IV, item 1, which is equivalent to a range of 26%-50% of the waking time with dyskinesia. We carried out a genome-wide analysis of the hazard ratio and the association of genome-wide SNPs with the probability of developing LiD using cox proportional hazard models (CPH).

Results

This study included 2,784 PD patients of European ancestry, of whom 14.6% developed LiD. Consistent with previous studies, we found female gender (HR = 1.35, SE = 0.11, P = 0.007) and younger age at onset (HR = 1.8, SE = 0.14, P = 2 × 10 -5 ) to increase the probability of developing LiD. We identified three loci significantly associated with time-to-LiD onset. rs72673189 on chromosome 1 (HR = 2.77, SE = 0.18, P = 1.53 × 10 -8 ) located in the LRP8 locus, rs189093213 on chromosome 4 (HR = 3.06,, SE = 0.19, P = 2.81 × 10 -9 ) in the non-coding RNA LINC02353 locus, and rs180924818 on chromosome 16 (HR = 3.13, SE = 0.20, P = 6.27 × 10 -9 ) in the XYLT1 locus. Subsequent colocalization analyses on chromosome 1 identified DNAJB4 as a candidate gene associated with LiD through a change in gene expression. We computed a PRS based on our GWAS meta-analysis and found high accuracy to stratify between PD-LID and PD (AUC 83.9). We also performed a stepwise regression analysis for baseline features selection associated with LiD status. We found baseline anxiety status to be significantly associated with LiD (OR = 1.14, SE = 0.03, P = 7.4 × 10 -5 ). Finally, we performed a candidate variant analysis and found that genetic variability in ANKK1 ( rs1800497 , Beta = 0.24, SE = 0.09, P = 8.89 × 10 -3 ) and BDNF ( rs6265 , Beta = 0.19, SE = 0.10, P = 4.95 × 10 -2 ) loci were significantly associated with time to LiD in our large meta-analysis.

Conclusion

In this association study, we have found three novel genetic variants associated with LiD, as well as confirming reports that variability in ANKK1 and BDNF loci were significantly associated with LiD probability. A PRS nominated from our time-to-LiD meta-analysis significantly differentiated between PD-LiD and PD. In addition, we have found female gender, young PD onset and anxiety to be significantly associated with LiD.

Views and Perceptions of People Aged 55+ on the Vaccination Programme for Older Adults in the UK: A Qualitative Study

Vaccination reduces the risks related to infectious disease, especially among more vulnerable groups, such as older adults. The vaccines available to older adults in the UK through the government-funded programme currently include influenza, pneumococcal, shingles and COVID-19 vaccines. The purpose of the programme is disease prevention and improving wellbeing among the ageing population. Yet, the target population's views of the programme remain unknown. This paper aims to increase the understanding of older adults' perceptions of the vaccination programme available in the UK. A total of 13 online focus groups (56 informants) were carried out for this qualitative study. The findings indicate that getting vaccinated involves personal decision-making processes, which are influenced by previous experiences and interpersonal interactions. Factors related to the wider community and culture are less prominent in explaining vaccination decisions. However, opportunistic vaccination offers, a lack of information and a lack of opportunities to discuss vaccines, especially with healthcare professionals, are prominent factors. The study provides in-depth data about the rationale behind older adults' vaccination decisions in the UK. We recommend that the provision of information and opportunities to discuss vaccines and infectious disease be improved to enable older adults' to make better informed decisions regarding the vaccines available to them.

Inequalities in provision of hip and knee replacement surgery for osteoarthritis by age, sex, and social deprivation in England between 2007-2017: A population-based cohort study of the National Joint Registry

BACKGROUND

While the United Kingdom National Health Service aimed to reduce social inequalities in the provision of joint replacement, it is unclear whether these gaps have reduced. We describe secular trends in the provision of primary hip and knee replacement surgery between social deprivation groups.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used the National Joint Registry to identify all hip and knee replacements performed for osteoarthritis from 2007 to 2017 in England. The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2015 was used to identify the relative level of deprivation of the patient living area. Multilevel negative binomial regression models were used to model the differences in rates of joint replacement. Choropleth maps of hip and knee replacement provision were produced to identify the geographical variation in provision by Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs). A total of 675,342 primary hip and 834,146 primary knee replacements were studied. The mean age was 70 years old (standard deviation: 9) with 60% and 56% of women undergoing hip and knee replacements, respectively. The overall rate of hip replacement increased from 27 to 36 per 10,000 person-years and knee replacement from 33 to 46. Inequalities of provision between the most (reference) and least affluent areas have remained constant for both joints (hip: rate ratio (RR) = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [0.56, 0.60] in 2007, RR = 0.59 [0.58, 0.61] in 2017; knee: RR = 0.82 [0.80, 0.85] in 2007, RR = 0.81 [0.80, 0.83] in 2017). For hip replacement, CCGs with the highest concentration of deprived areas had lower overall provision rates, and CCGs with very few deprived areas had higher provision rates. There was no clear pattern of provision inequalities between CCGs and deprivation concentration for knee replacement. Study limitations include the lack of publicly available information to explore these inequalities beyond age, sex, and geographical area. Information on clinical need for surgery or patient willingness to access care were unavailable.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that there were inequalities, which remained constant over time, especially in the provision of hip replacement, by degree of social deprivation. Providers of healthcare need to take action to reduce this unwarranted variation in provision of surgery.

Proactive and Integrated Management and Empowerment in Parkinson's Disease protocol for a randomised controlled trial (PRIME-UK) to evaluate a new model of care

BACKGROUND

People living with Parkinson's disease experience progressive motor and non-motor symptoms, which negatively impact on health-related quality of life and can lead to an increased risk of hospitalisation. It is increasingly recognised that the current care models are not suitable for the needs of people with parkinsonism whose care needs evolve and change as the disease progresses. This trial aims to evaluate whether a complex and innovative model of integrated care will increase an individual's ability to achieve their personal goals, have a positive impact on health and symptom burden and be more cost-effective when compared with usual care.

METHODS

This is a single-centre, randomised controlled trial where people with parkinsonism and their informal caregivers are randomised into one of two groups: either PRIME Parkinson multi-component model of care or usual care. Adults ≥18 years with a diagnosis of parkinsonism, able to provide informed consent or the availability of a close friend or relative to act as a personal consultee if capacity to do so is absent and living in the trial geographical area are eligible. Up to three caregivers per patient can also take part, must be ≥18 years, provide informal, unpaid care and able to give informed consent. The primary outcome measure is goal attainment, as measured using the Bangor Goal Setting Interview. The duration of enrolment is 24 months. The total recruitment target is n=214, and the main analyses will be intention to treat.

DISCUSSION

This trial tests whether a novel model of care improves health and disease-related metrics including goal attainment and decreases hospitalisations whilst being more cost-effective than the current usual care. Subject to successful implementation of this intervention within one centre, the PRIME Parkinson model of care could then be evaluated within a cluster-randomised trial at multiple centres.

Plasma viscosity, immunoglobulins and risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality: new data and meta-analyses

AIMS

Associations of plasma viscosity and plasma Ig levels (a determinant of viscosity) with incident coronary heart disease (CHD) events; and with CHD, cardiovascular disease (CVD: CHD and stroke) and all-cause mortalities.

METHODS

Meta-analysis of plasma viscosity levels from the MONitoring of trends and determinants of CArdiovascular (MONICA)/Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg, MONICA Glasgow and Speedwell Studies; and five other published studies. Meta-analysis of IgA, IgG and IgM levels from the Augsburg, Glasgow and Speedwell studies; and one other published study.

RESULTS

Over median follow-up periods of 14-26 years, there were 2270 CHD events, and 4220 all cause deaths in 28 605 participants with baseline plasma viscosity measurements. After adjustment for major risk factors, (HRs; 95% CIs) for a 1 SD increase in viscosity were 1.14 (1.09 to 1.20) for CHD events; and 1.21 (1.17 to 1.25) for all-cause mortality. 821 CHD events and 2085 all-cause deaths occurred in 8218 participants with baseline Ig levels. For CHD events, adjusted HRs for 1 SD increases in IgA, IgG and IgM were, respectively, 0.97 (0.89 to 1.05); 0.95(0.76 to 1.17) and 0.90 (0.79 to 1.03). Corresponding adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.08 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.13), 1.03 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.14) and 1.01 (95% CI 0.96 to 1.06).

CONCLUSIONS

After risk factor adjustment, plasma viscosity was significantly associated with risks of CHD events; and with CHD, CVD and all-cause mortalities. We found no significant association of IgA, IgG or IgM levels with incident CHD events or mortality, except for a borderline association of IgA with all-cause mortality.

Quality of relationships in mothers and their partners in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children

Quality of relationship between partners is associated with a wide range of physical and psychological outcomes like anxiety and depression. There are relatively few longitudinal studies with detailed and repeated measures for quality of relationship, particularly in both partners. The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) is a large birth cohort study in the UK with five post-partum repeated measures of quality of relationship between mothers and their partners assessed using the Intimate Bond Measure (IBM). The Measure includes two subscales named “Care” and “Control”. These were measured at 2.75, 6, 9, 12, and 18 years post-partum (baseline N for mothers: 8675; baseline N for partners: 5499). The aims of this data note are to provide a comprehensive overview on the existing IBM data in ALSPAC and to describe both its strengths and limitations for future users. The internal consistency of the subscales were high (Cronbach's alpha 0.95 and 0.88 for the Care and Control subscales) in both mothers and their partners at the baseline. In the Care subscale, all 12 items were highly correlated with the overall score (r>0.62) at the baseline, but in the Control subscale there were three items that had relatively low correlations with the total subscale (r<0.46). This should be taken into account in future research. The longitudinal nature of this data on both mothers and partners will enable detailed explorations of the causes and consequences of differences in quality of relationship.

Specialized Versus Generic Allied Health Therapy and the Risk of Parkinson's Disease Complications

BACKGROUND

Specialized versus generic physiotherapy (PT) reduces Parkinson's disease (PD)-related complications. It is unclear (1) whether other specialized allied heath disciplines, including occupational therapy (OT) and speech and language therapy (S&LT), also reduce complications; (2) whether there is a synergistic effect among multiple specialized disciplines; and (3) whether each allied health discipline prevents specific complications.

OBJECTIVES

To longitudinally assessed whether the level of expertise (specialized vs. generic training) of PT, OT, and S&LT was associated with the incidence rate of PD-related complications.

METHODS

We used claims data of all insured persons with PD in the Netherlands between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2018. ParkinsonNet-trained therapists were classified as specialized, and other therapists as generic. We used mixed-effects Poisson regression models to estimate rate ratios adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical characteristics.

RESULTS

The population of 51,464 persons with PD (mean age, 72.4 years; standard deviation 9.8) sustained 10,525 PD-related complications during follow-up (median 3.3 years). Specialized PT was associated with fewer complications (incidence rate ratio [IRR] of specialized versus generic = 0.79; 95% confidence interval, [0.74-0.83]; P < 0.0001), as was specialized OT (IRR = 0.88 [0.77-0.99]; P = 0.03). We found a trend of an association between specialized S&LT and a lower rate of PD-related complications (IRR = 0.88 [0.74-1.04]; P = 0.18). The inverse association of specialized OT persisted in the stratum, which also received specialized PT (IRR = 0.62 [0.42-0.90]; P = 0.001). The strongest inverse association of PT was seen with orthopedic injuries (IRR = 0.78 [0.73-0.82]; P < 0.0001) and of S&LT with pneumonia (IRR = 0.70 [0.53-0.93]; P = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support a wider introduction of specialized allied health therapy expertise in PD care and conceivably for other medical conditions. © 2022 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Investigating strategies to improve AccesS to Kidney transplantation (the ASK trial): a protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled trial with parallel process evaluation

BACKGROUND

The UK's living-donor kidney transplant (LDKT) activity falls behind that of many other countries internationally, with less than 20% of those eligible receiving a LDKT each year. Certain individuals with kidney disease in the UK appear to be particularly disadvantaged in accessing a LDKT; the most socioeconomically deprived people with kidney disease are 60% less likely to receive a LDKT than the least deprived. Improving equity in living-donor kidney transplantation has been highlighted as an international research priority.

METHODS

This feasibility trial was designed to determine the feasibility of delivery and acceptability of a multicomponent intervention designed to improve access to living-donor kidney transplantation. The intervention comprises three main components: (i) a meeting between a home educator and the transplant candidate for a dedicated discussion about living-donor kidney transplantation, living kidney donation and potential donors; (ii) a standardized letter from a healthcare professional to a candidate's potential donors and (iii) a home-based education and family engagement session including two home educators, the transplant candidate and their family. The primary objectives are to establish the feasibility (i) of delivering the developed intervention in existing care pathways and (ii) of undertaking a randomised controlled trial of the intervention. A mixed-methods parallel process evaluation will investigate the acceptability, implementation and mechanisms of impact of the intervention. The trial is based at two UK hospitals: a transplanting hospital and a non-transplanting referral hospital. Individuals are eligible if they are ≥ 18 years old, are active on the kidney transplant waiting list or have been referred for transplant listing and do not have a potential living-donor undergoing surgical assessment. Randomisation will be undertaken with concealed allocation. Participants will be randomly allocated 1:1 to (i) the intervention or (ii) usual care, stratified by site to ensure a balance in terms of local differences. Minimisation will be used to ensure balance in sex, age group and socioeconomic strata, with probability weighting of 0.8 in order to reduce predictability. The primary outcomes are recruitment (% of those eligible and invited who consent to randomisation) and retention (% of participants completing follow-up).

DISCUSSION

Findings will inform the design of a future fully powered, randomised controlled trial to formally evaluate the effectiveness of the intervention at improving equitable access to living-donor kidney transplantation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN10989132 Applied 30/10/20.

1219 INFORMAL CAREGIVERS OF PEOPLE WITH PARKINSONISM IN THE PRIME-UK CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY

Introduction

Many people with parkinsonism require care as the disease progresses with much provided unpaid by family and friends. Caring for someone can have a negative impact on physical and psychosocial wellbeing. Caregiver burden can impact ability to continue this role, which can precipitate hospitalisation or institutionalisation of the recipient.

Methods

In this single-site study, primary, informal caregivers, defined as those providing any care or support, were enrolled alongside the person with parkinsonism or individually. Self-reported questionnaires included the 22-item Zarit Burden Interview (ZBI), which can range from 0-88, with higher scores representing greater burden. Linear regression was used to explore the association between recipient characteristics/need and caregiver burden.

Results

Of 1,032 eligible patients approached, 813 participants indicated whether they had an informal caregiver (708) or not (105). 376 caregivers consented (53.1%), of whom 321 have returned questionnaires, with patient data available for 296. The median age of caregivers was 73.0 (range 27.0- 91.1 years), 237 (73.8%) female. 274 (85.4%) were the spouse/partner of the patient. 215 (67.0%) were the sole caregiver. The median time per week spent caring was 21 hours (interquartile range 7, 41 hours). 18 (5.6%) of caregivers provided 24-hour care daily and 113 (35.2%) had provided support for over 5 years. Median ZBI score was 17, (interquartile range 7-29). The care recipient’s duration of parkinsonism was associated with higher burden score (0.38 increase per year of parkinsonism; 95% CI 0.07, 0.69; p value 0.015), as was the time per week spent caring (0.16 increase for each additional hour; 95% CI 0.11, 0.20; p value &lt;0.0001).

Conclusions

Many informal caregivers in this study were the sole caregiver and many were themselves older adults. Burden increased with increasing duration of parkinsonism and as time spent caring increased. This highlights the ongoing need to improve support for this group.

A Diagnostic Test Accuracy Study Investigating General Practitioner Clinical Impression and Brief Cognitive Assessments for Dementia in Primary Care, Compared to Specialized Assessment

BACKGROUND

Many health systems are interested in increasing the number of uncomplicated and typical dementia diagnoses that are made in primary care, but the comparative accuracy of tests is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

Calculate diagnostic accuracy of brief cognitive tests in primary care.

METHODS

We did a diagnostic test accuracy study in general practice, in people over 70 years who had consulted their GP with cognitive symptoms but had no prior diagnosis of dementia. The reference standard was specialist assessment, adjudicated for difficult cases, according to ICD-10. We assessed 16 index tests at a research clinic, and additionally analyzed referring GPs clinical judgement.

RESULTS

240 participants had a median age of 80 years, of whom 126 were men and 132 had dementia. Sensitivity of individual tests at the recommended thresholds ranged from 56% for GP judgement (specificity 89%) to 100% for MoCA (specificity 16%). Specificity of individual tests ranged from 4% for Sniffin' sticks (sensitivity 100%) to 91% for Timed Up and Go (sensitivity 23%). The 95% centile of test duration in people with dementia ranged from 3 minutes for 6CIT and Time and Change, to 16 minutes for MoCA. Combining tests with GP judgement increased test specificity and decreased sensitivity: e.g., MoCA with GP Judgement had specificity 87% and sensitivity 55%.

CONCLUSIONS

Using GP judgement to inform selection of tests was an efficient strategy. Using IQCODE in people who GPs judge as having dementia and 6CIT in people who GPs judge as having no dementia, would be a time-efficient and accurate diagnostic assessment.The original protocol for the study is available at https://bmcfampract.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12875-016-0475-2.

Identification of a possible proteomic biomarker in Parkinson's disease: discovery and replication in blood, brain and cerebrospinal fluid

Biomarkers to aid diagnosis and delineate the progression of Parkinson's disease are vital for targeting treatment in the early phases of the disease. Here, we aim to discover a multi-protein panel representative of Parkinson's and make mechanistic inferences from protein expression profiles within the broader objective of finding novel biomarkers. We used aptamer-based technology (SomaLogic®) to measure proteins in 1599 serum samples, 85 cerebrospinal fluid samples and 37 brain tissue samples collected from two observational longitudinal cohorts (the Oxford Parkinson's Disease Centre and Tracking Parkinson's) and the Parkinson's Disease Brain Bank, respectively. Random forest machine learning was performed to discover new proteins related to disease status and generate multi-protein expression signatures with potential novel biomarkers. Differential regulation analysis and pathway analysis were performed to identify functional and mechanistic disease associations. The most consistent diagnostic classifier signature was tested across modalities [cerebrospinal fluid (area under curve) = 0.74, P = 0.0009; brain area under curve = 0.75, P = 0.006; serum area under curve = 0.66, P = 0.0002]. Focusing on serum samples and using only those with severe disease compared with controls increased the area under curve to 0.72 (P = 1.0 × 10^-4). In the validation data set, we showed that the same classifiers were significantly related to disease status (P < 0.001). Differential expression analysis and weighted gene correlation network analysis highlighted key proteins and pathways with known relationships to Parkinson's. Proteins from the complement and coagulation cascades suggest a disease relationship to immune response. The combined analytical approaches in a relatively large number of samples, across tissue types, with replication and validation, provide mechanistic insights into the disease as well as nominate a protein signature classifier that deserves further biomarker evaluation.

A longitudinal observational study of home-based conversations for detecting early dementia: protocol for the CUBOId TV task

INTRODUCTION

Limitations in effective dementia therapies mean that early diagnosis and monitoring are critical for disease management, but current clinical tools are impractical and/or unreliable, and disregard short-term symptom variability. Behavioural biomarkers of cognitive decline, such as speech, sleep and activity patterns, can manifest prodromal pathological changes. They can be continuously measured at home with smart sensing technologies, and permit leveraging of interpersonal interactions for optimising diagnostic and prognostic performance. Here we describe the ContinUous behavioural Biomarkers Of cognitive Impairment (CUBOId) study, which explores the feasibility of multimodal data fusion for in-home monitoring of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and early Alzheimer's disease (AD). The report focuses on a subset of CUBOId participants who perform a novel speech task, the 'TV task', designed to track changes in ecologically valid conversations with disease progression.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

CUBOId is a longitudinal observational study. Participants have diagnoses of MCI or AD, and controls are their live-in partners with no such diagnosis. Multimodal activity data were passively acquired from wearables and in-home fixed sensors over timespans of 8-25 months. At two time points participants completed the TV task over 5 days by recording audio of their conversations as they watched a favourite TV programme, with further testing to be completed after removal of the sensor installations. Behavioural testing is supported by neuropsychological assessment for deriving ground truths on cognitive status. Deep learning will be used to generate fused multimodal activity-speech embeddings for optimisation of diagnostic and predictive performance from speech alone.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

CUBOId was approved by an NHS Research Ethics Committee (Wales REC; ref: 18/WA/0158) and is sponsored by University of Bristol. It is supported by the National Institute for Health Research Clinical Research Network West of England. Results will be reported at conferences and in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

Universal clinical Parkinson's disease axes identify a major influence of neuroinflammation

BACKGROUND

There is large individual variation in both clinical presentation and progression between Parkinson's disease patients. Generation of deeply and longitudinally phenotyped patient cohorts has enormous potential to identify disease subtypes for prognosis and therapeutic targeting.

METHODS

Replicating across three large Parkinson's cohorts (Oxford Discovery cohort (n = 842)/Tracking UK Parkinson's study (n = 1807) and Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (n = 472)) with clinical observational measures collected longitudinally over 5-10 years, we developed a Bayesian multiple phenotypes mixed model incorporating genetic relationships between individuals able to explain many diverse clinical measurements as a smaller number of continuous underlying factors ("phenotypic axes").

RESULTS

When applied to disease severity at diagnosis, the most influential of three phenotypic axes "Axis 1" was characterised by severe non-tremor motor phenotype, anxiety and depression at diagnosis, accompanied by faster progression in cognitive function measures. Axis 1 was associated with increased genetic risk of Alzheimer's disease and reduced CSF Aβ1-42 levels. As observed previously for Alzheimer's disease genetic risk, and in contrast to Parkinson's disease genetic risk, the loci influencing Axis 1 were associated with microglia-expressed genes implicating neuroinflammation. When applied to measures of disease progression for each individual, integration of Alzheimer's disease genetic loci haplotypes improved the accuracy of progression modelling, while integrating Parkinson's disease genetics did not.

CONCLUSIONS

We identify universal axes of Parkinson's disease phenotypic variation which reveal that Parkinson's patients with high concomitant genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease are more likely to present with severe motor and non-motor features at baseline and progress more rapidly to early dementia.

Association between the LRP1B and APOE loci in the development of Parkinson's disease dementia

Parkinson's disease is one of the most common age-related neurodegenerative disorders. Although predominantly a motor disorder, cognitive impairment and dementia are important features of Parkinson's disease, particularly in the later stages of the disease. However, the rate of cognitive decline varies among Parkinson's disease patients, and the genetic basis for this heterogeneity is incompletely understood. To explore the genetic factors associated with rate of progression to Parkinson's disease dementia, we performed a genome-wide survival meta-analysis of 3,923 clinically diagnosed Parkinson's disease cases of European ancestry from four longitudinal cohorts. In total, 6.7% of individuals with Parkinson's disease developed dementia during study follow-up, on average 4.4 ± 2.4 years from disease diagnosis. We have identified the APOE ε4 allele as a major risk factor for the conversion to Parkinson's disease dementia [hazards ratio = 2.41 (1.94-3.00), P = 2.32 × 10-15], as well as a new locus within the ApoE and APP receptor LRP1B gene [hazards ratio = 3.23 (2.17-4.81), P = 7.07 × 10-09]. In a candidate gene analysis, GBA variants were also identified to be associated with higher risk of progression to dementia [hazards ratio = 2.02 (1.21-3.32), P = 0.007]. CSF biomarker analysis also implicated the amyloid pathway in Parkinson's disease dementia, with significantly reduced levels of amyloid β42 (P = 0.0012) in Parkinson's disease dementia compared to Parkinson's disease without dementia. These results identify a new candidate gene associated with faster conversion to dementia in Parkinson's disease and suggest that amyloid-targeting therapy may have a role in preventing Parkinson's disease dementia.

Use of intersectionality theories in interventional health research in high-income countries: a systematic scoping review

BACKGROUND

Intersectionality theory suggests that multiple forms of inequality need to be considered simultaneously. The extent to which intersectionality has been used within interventional health research has not been systematically examined. This scoping review explores the use of intersectionality when designing and implementing interventions to reduce health inequalities, or when analysing the impact of these interventions.

METHODS

We did a systematic search of MEDLINE and Scopus for articles published from inception up to June 30, 2021, with the key search terms "intersectionality", "interventions", and "public health". References were screened and those including use of intersectionality and primary data from high-income countries were included and relevant data synthesised. We used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses reporting guidelines extension for scoping reviews.

FINDINGS

2108 studies were screened, of which 12 met inclusion criteria Six (50%) of the 12 studies were qualitative and focused on alcohol and substance abuse (two studies), mental health (two studies), general health promotion (one study), and housing interventions (one study). The three quantitative studies (25%) examined mental health (two studies) and smoking cessation (one study), whereas the three mixed-methods studies (25%) examined mental health (two studies) and sexual exploitation (one study). Nine studies (75%) used intersectionality to analyse intervention effects, two studies (25%) used intersectionality for intervention design, and one study (8%) used intersectionality for both design and analysis of an intervention. Ethnicity and gender were the most commonly included axes of inequality (11 studies [92%]), followed by socioeconomic status (ten studies [83%]). Only four studies (33%) included consideration of LGBTQ+ individuals and only one (8%) considered physical disabilities.

INTERPRETATION

Intersectionality theories are not yet commonly used in either the design or the evaluation of interventional health research, and evidence on the implementation of some key elements of intersectionality is still scarce. Studies on some conditions, such as mental health, have more often used intersectionality, whereas studies considering the LGBTQ+ community and individuals with physical disabilities as axes of inequality are particularly scarce.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health and Care Research School for Public Health Research.

Stimulation of the Tibial nerve Repetitively to Improve Incontinence in Parkinson's Electronically (STRIPE trial): a randomised control trial of tibial nerve stimulation for bladder symptoms in Parkinson's disease using a self-contained wearable device

Background

Bladder symptoms are common in Parkinson’s disease (PD), affecting half of all individuals. These have significant impact on quality of life as well as implications for morbidity, contributing to falls and hospital admission. The treatment of bladder symptoms can be complicated by the tendency to side-effects in people with PD including cognitive impairment and gait instability with anti-muscarinics. The development of new, better treatments is therefore warranted. Tibial nerve stimulation is a form of neuromodulation demonstrated to improve overactive bladder symptoms in non-neurogenic cohorts. Previously requiring hospital attendance, we aim to explore the use of this intervention using a simple device that can be used by patients at home.

Methods

STRIPE is a phase II randomised control trial of tibial nerve stimulation delivered by the Geko™ device, a small, self-adhesive neuromuscular stimulation device currently used for thromboembolism prophylaxis post-surgery. Active tibial nerve stimulation will be compared to sham stimulation, with participants blinded to treatment allocation and undertaking outcome assessment whilst still blinded. Participants will be asked to self-administer stimulation at home twice per week, for 30 min per session, over the course of 3 months. Primary outcome measure will be the International Consultation on Incontinence Overactive Bladder Questionnaire (OAB) at week 12. Secondary outcomes will include pre- and post-intervention bladder diary (frequency, urgency episodes, nocturia), patient perception of global change, bowel function and bladder-related quality of life. Participants will be recruited from the Proactive Integrated Management and Empowerment (PRIME) cross-sectional trial in which participants have been screened for bladder symptoms and invited to take part, as well as clinician referral from around the region.

Discussion

This trial will involve a randomised control trial of a novel and easy to use method of delivering tibial nerve stimulation for PD in the patient’s own home. This may potentially have huge benefit, avoiding the problems with side effects that can be seen with anti-muscarinics and providing a new potential modality of treatment.

Trial registration

ISRCTN11484954. Registered on 22 June 2021.

Decline in Cognition from Mid-Life Improves Specificity of Mini-Mental State Examination: Diagnostic Test Accuracy in Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPs)

BACKGROUND

The merit of using baseline cognitive assessments in mid-life to help interpret cross-sectional cognitive tests scores in later life is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate how accuracy for diagnosing dementia is enhanced by comparing cross-sectional results to a midlife measure.

METHODS

Cohort study of 2,512 men with repeated measures of Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) over approximately 10 years. Index test MMSE at threshold of 24 indicating normal, as a cross-sectional measure and in combination with decline in MMSE score from mid-life. Reference standard consensus clinical diagnosis of dementia by two clinicians according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV).

RESULTS

1,150 men participated at phase 4 of whom 75 had dementia. A cross-sectional MMSE alone produced a sensitivity of 60% (50% to 70%) and specificity 95% (94% to 97%) with a threshold of≥24 points indicating normal. For lower-scoring men in late life, with cross sectional scores of &lt; 22, combining cross-sectional AND a three-point or more decline over time had a sensitivity of 52% (39% to 64%) and specificity 99% (99% to 100%). For higher-scoring men in later life, with cross sectional scores &lt; 26 combining cross-sectional OR decline of at least three points had a sensitivity of 98% (92% to 100%) and specificity 38% (32% to 44%).

CONCLUSION

It may be helpful in practice to formally evaluate cognition in mid-life as a baseline to compare with if problems develop in future, as this may enhance diagnostic accuracy and classification of people in later life.

Multiple hospital organisational factors are associated with adverse patient outcomes post-hip fracture in England and Wales: the REDUCE record-linkage cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Despite established standards and guidelines, substantial variation remains in the delivery of hip fracture care across the United Kingdom. We aimed to determine which hospital-level organisational factors predict adverse patient outcomes in the months following hip fracture.

METHODS

We examined a national record-linkage cohort of 178,757 patients aged ≥60 years who sustained a hip fracture in England and Wales in 2016-19. Patient-level hospital admissions datasets, National Hip Fracture Database and mortality data were linked to metrics from 18 hospital-level organisational-level audits and reports. Multilevel models identified organisational factors, independent of patient case-mix, associated with three patient outcomes: length of hospital stay (LOS), 30-day all-cause mortality and emergency 30-day readmission.

RESULTS

Across hospitals mean LOS ranged from 12 to 41.9 days, mean 30-day mortality from 3.7 to 10.4% and mean readmission rates from 3.7 to 30.3%, overall means were 21.4 days, 7.3% and 15.3%, respectively. In all, 22 organisational factors were independently associated with LOS; e.g. a hospital's ability to mobilise >90% of patients promptly after surgery predicted a 2-day shorter LOS (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-2.6). Ten organisational factors were independently associated with 30-day mortality; e.g. discussion of patient experience feedback at clinical governance meetings and provision of prompt surgery to >80% of patients were each associated with 10% lower mortality (95%CI: 5-15%). Nine organisational factors were independently associated with readmissions; e.g. readmissions were 17% lower if hospitals reported how soon community therapy would start after discharge (95%CI: 9-24%).

CONCLUSIONS

Receipt of hip fracture care should be reliable and equitable across the country. We have identified multiple, potentially modifiable, organisational factors associated with important patient outcomes following hip fracture.