Risk factors for and risk of all-cause and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease mortality in people with type 2 diabetes and peripheral artery disease: an observational, register-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and peripheral artery disease (PAD) are recognized as independent risk factors contributing to excess mortality. Contemporary observational studies exploring the associations of risk factors, and risk of all-cause and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease mortality in persons with T2D following the onset of incident peripheral artery disease are limited. The objectives of this study were to investigate the associations of risk factors, and assess mortality risks in people with T2D compared with controls without T2D after the onset of PAD.

METHODS

All persons with T2D (n = 150,215) registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register between 2005 and 2009 were included, along with 346,423 controls without T2D matched for sex and age. Data were retrieved from several national registries, capturing information on risk factors, onset of incident peripheral artery disease, other comorbidities, socioeconomic factors, and outcomes. To compare persons with T2D and controls following the onset of peripheral artery disease regarding the risk of all-cause, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease mortality, Cox proportional hazard models and Kaplan-Meier curves were employed. A gradient-boosting model was utilized to estimate the relative statistical contribution of risk factors to the modeling of incident mortality risk in people with both T2D and peripheral artery disease.

RESULTS

Crude rates of incident all-cause mortality were higher in individuals with T2D compared with controls, following the onset of PAD (600.4 (95% CI, 581.4-619.8) per 10,000 person-years versus 549.1 (95% CI, 532.1-566.5) per 10,000 person-years). Persons with T2D had an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality of 1.12 (95% CI, 1.05-1.19, P < 0.01) compared with controls after onset of incident PAD. The comparable adjusted HR for cardiovascular mortality was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.07-1.19, P < 0.01). High age and hyperglycemia at baseline played a significant role in contributing to the predictive models for incident all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among individuals with both T2D and PAD.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of T2D with concomitant PAD is related to an increased risk of both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality compared with individuals with only PAD. This argues for implementing optimized and intensive treatment strategies for individuals with both conditions.

Associations Between HbA1c and Glucose Time in Range Using Continuous Glucose Monitoring in Type 1 Diabetes: Cross-Sectional Population-Based Study

INTRODUCTION

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) introduces novel indicators of glycemic control.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study, based on the Swedish National Diabetes Register, examines 27,980 adults with type 1 diabetes. It explores the relationships between HbA1c (glycated hemoglobin) and various CGM-derived metrics, including TIR (time in range, representing the percentage of time within the range of 4-10 mmol/l for 2 weeks), TAR (time above range), TBR (time below range), mean glucose, standard deviation (SD), and coefficient of variation (CV). Pearson correlation coefficients and linear regression models were utilized for estimation.

RESULTS

The analysis included 46% women, 30% on insulin pump, 7% with previous coronary heart disease and 64% with retinopathy. Mean ± SD values were age 48 ± 18 years, diabetes duration 25 ± 16 years, HbA1c 58.8 ± 12.8 mmol/mol, TIR 58.8 ± 19.0%, TAR 36.3 ± 20.0%, TBR 4.7 ± 5.4%, mean sensor glucose 9.2 ± 2.0 mmol/l, SD 3.3 ± 1.0 mmol/l, and CV 36 ± 7%. The overall association between HbA1c and TIR was - 0.71 (Pearson's r), with R2 0.51 in crude linear regression and 0.57 in an adjusted model. R2 values between HbA1c and CGM mean glucose were 0.605 (unadjusted) 0.619 (adjusted) and TAR (unadjusted 0.554 and fully adjusted 0.568, respectively), while fully adjusted R2 values were 0.458, 0.175 and 0.101 between HbA1c and CGM SD, CGM CV and TBR, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This descriptive study demonstrates that the degree of association between HbA1c and new and readily available CGM-derived metrics, i.e., time in range (TIR), time above range (TAR), and CGM mean glucose, is robust in assessing the management of individuals with type 1 diabetes in clinical settings. Metrics from CGM that pertain to variability and hypoglycemia exhibit only weak correlations with HbA1c.

Autoimmune comorbidity in type 1 diabetes and its association with metabolic control and mortality risk in young people: a population-based study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

This register-based study aimed to describe autoimmune comorbidity in children and young adults from type 1 diabetes onset, and to investigate whether such comorbidity was associated with a difference in HbA1c or mortality risk compared with children/young adults with type 1 diabetes without autoimmune comorbidity.

METHODS

A total of 15,188 individuals from the Swedish National Diabetes Register, registered with type 1 diabetes before 18 years of age between 2000 and 2019, were included. Five randomly selected control individuals from the Swedish population (Statistics Sweden) were matched to each individual with type 1 diabetes (n=74,210 [346 individuals with type 1 diabetes were not found in the Statistics Sweden register at the date of type 1 diabetes diagnosis, so could not be matched to control individuals]). The National Patient Register was used to attain ICD-10 codes on autoimmune diseases and the Cause of Death Register was used to identify deceased individuals.

RESULTS

In the total type 1 diabetes cohort, mean±SD age at onset of type 1 diabetes was 9.5±4.4 years and mean disease duration at end of follow-up was 8.8±5.7 years. Of the individuals with type 1 diabetes, 19.2% were diagnosed with at least one autoimmune disease vs 4.0% of the control group. The HRs for comorbidities within 19 years from onset of type 1 diabetes were 11.6 (95% CI 10.6, 12.6) for coeliac disease, 10.6 (95% CI 9.6, 11.8) for thyroid disease, 1.3 (95% CI 1.1, 1.6) for psoriasis, 4.1 (95% CI 3.2, 5.3) for vitiligo, 1.7 (95% CI 1.4, 2.2) for rheumatic joint disease, 1.0 (95% CI 0.8, 1.3) for inflammatory bowel disease, 1.0 (95% CI 0.7, 1.2) for systemic connective tissue disorder, 1.4 (95% CI 1.1, 1.9) for uveitis, 18.3 (95% CI 8.4, 40.0) for Addison's disease, 1.8 (95% CI 0.9, 3.6) for multiple sclerosis, 3.7 (95% CI 1.6, 8.7) for inflammatory liver disease and 19.6 (95% CI 4.2, 92.3) for atrophic gastritis. Autoimmune disease in addition to type 1 diabetes had no statistically significant effect on HbA1c or mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

To our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive study where young individuals with type 1 diabetes were followed regarding development of a wide spectrum of autoimmune diseases, from onset of type 1 diabetes. In this nationwide and population-based study, there was already a high prevalence of autoimmune diseases in childhood, especially coeliac and thyroid disease. The presence of autoimmune comorbidity did not have a statistically significant effect on metabolic control or mortality risk.

Sex differences in cytokines and adipokines in obese patients with PsA and controls undergoing a weight loss intervention

OBJECTIVE

In this post hoc analysis of a previously published study, we compared cytokines and adipokine levels in women and men with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) at baseline (BL) and 6 months (M6) following a weight loss intervention.

METHODS

Patients with PsA (n=41) between 25 and 75 years of age, with body mass index (BMI)≥33 kg/m2 were included in a weight loss intervention with a very low energy diet (VLED) for 12 or 16 weeks depending on BL BMI<40 or ≥40 kg/m2. As controls (n=39), obese individuals, already planned for VLED treatment were recruited and matched for sex, age and weight to the patients with PsA. Cytokines and adipokines were measured at BL and M6.

RESULTS

At BL, serum levels of interleukin (IL)-23, leptin and high molecular weight-adiponectin were higher in women with PsA compared with men, whereas serum levels of interferon (IFN)-γ, IL-12/IL-23 p40 and IL-13 were significantly lower in women. Serum IL-23 was significantly reduced at M6 compared with BL in women but not in men with PsA. In women with PsA, the reduction in IL-23 at M6, ∆IL-23, were positively correlated with ∆Disease Activity Score 28 C reactive protein (CRP) (Spearman's correlation (rS)=0.486, p=0.016), ∆CRP (rS=0.468, p=0.021), ∆leptin (rS=0.683, p<0.001) and negatively correlated with ∆total-adiponectin (rS=-0.433, p=0.035). Also in women, ∆Disease Activity in Psoriatic Arthritis was positively correlated with ∆tumour necrosis factor-α (rS=0.417, p=0.034), ∆IL-1β (rS=0.550, p=0.034), ∆IFN-γ (rS=0.414, p=0.035) and ∆leptin (rS=0.410, p=0.038). None of these correlations were significant in men with PsA.

CONCLUSIONS

Women and men with PsA differed with regard to serum levels of cytokines and adipokines before and after weight loss.

Lifetime and 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with type 1 diabetes: The LIFE-T1D model

AIMS

To develop and externally validate the LIFE-T1D model for the estimation of lifetime and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 1 diabetes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A sex-specific competing risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model was derived in individuals with type 1 diabetes without prior CVD from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR), using age as the time axis. Predictors included age at diabetes onset, smoking status, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, glycated haemoglobin level, estimated glomerular filtration rate, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albuminuria and retinopathy. The model was externally validated in the Danish Funen Diabetes Database (FDDB) and the UK Biobank.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 11.8 years (interquartile interval 6.1-17.1 years), 4608 CVD events and 1316 non-CVD deaths were observed in the NDR (n = 39 756). The internal validation c-statistic was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-0.85) and the external validation c-statistics were 0.77 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) for the FDDB (n = 2709) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.77) for the UK Biobank (n = 1022). Predicted risks were consistent with the observed incidence in the derivation and both validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The LIFE-T1D model can estimate lifetime risk of CVD and CVD-free life expectancy in individuals with type 1 diabetes without previous CVD. This model can facilitate individualized CVD prevention among individuals with type 1 diabetes. Validation in additional cohorts will improve future clinical implementation.

Identifying top ten predictors of type 2 diabetes through machine learning analysis of UK Biobank data

The study aimed to identify the most predictive factors for the development of type 2 diabetes. Using an XGboost classification model, we projected type 2 diabetes incidence over a 10-year horizon. We deliberately minimized the selection of baseline factors to fully exploit the rich dataset from the UK Biobank. The predictive value of features was assessed using shap values, with model performance evaluated via Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the Curve, sensitivity, and specificity. Data from the UK Biobank, encompassing a vast population with comprehensive demographic and health data, was employed. The study enrolled 450,000 participants aged 40-69, excluding those with pre-existing diabetes. Among 448,277 participants, 12,148 developed type 2 diabetes within a decade. HbA1c emerged as the foremost predictor, followed by BMI, waist circumference, blood glucose, family history of diabetes, gamma-glutamyl transferase, waist-hip ratio, HDL cholesterol, age, and urate. Our XGboost model achieved a Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the Curve of 0.9 for 10-year type 2 diabetes prediction, with a reduced 10-feature model achieving 0.88. Easily measurable biological factors surpassed traditional risk factors like diet, physical activity, and socioeconomic status in predicting type 2 diabetes. Furthermore, high prediction accuracy could be maintained using just the top 10 biological factors, with additional ones offering marginal improvements. These findings underscore the significance of biological markers in type 2 diabetes prediction.

Risk Factors for and Risk of Peripheral Artery Disease in Swedish Individuals With Type 2 Diabetes: A Nationwide Register-Based Study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate to what extent having control of peripheral artery disease (PAD) risk factors is associated with the risk of incident PAD in individuals with type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 148,096 individuals with type 2 diabetes in the Swedish National Diabetes Register between 2005 and 2009 were included and matched with 320,066 control subjects on the basis of age, sex, and county. A few control subjects who developed type 2 diabetes after recruitment, during wash-in (<0.2%), were not censored but instead matched with two new control subjects. Individuals with type 2 diabetes were evaluated according to the number of PAD risk factors beyond recommended guideline levels at baseline, including LDL cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking, glycated hemoglobin, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Incident PAD events were ascertained from 2006 to 2019.

RESULTS

A graded association was observed between the number of PAD risk factors not at target and incident PAD in individuals with type 2 diabetes. The adjusted hazard ratio for PAD was 1.41 (95% CI 1.23-1.63) for those with type 2 diabetes with all PAD risk factors within target compared with control subjects matched for sex, age, and county but not risk factor status, in contrast with 9.28 (95% CI 3.62-23.79) for those with all five PAD risk factors not at target.

CONCLUSIONS

A graded association was observed between increasing number of PAD risk factors not at target and incident PAD in individuals with type 2 diabetes.

Effects of medical and surgical treatment on vitamin D levels in obesity

INTRODUCTION

Persons living with obesity treated with bariatric surgery are at a high risk of developing nutritional deficiencies. The primary aim of this observational cohort study was to compare vitamin D levels in patients two years after bariatric surgery (Roux-en-Y gastric bypass/RYGB and sleeve gastrectomy/SG) with a very low-energy diet (VLED). The same subjects were also compared with a population sample from the same region at baseline. The primary hypothesis was that surgery, especially RYGB, would lead to an increased prevalence of vitamin D deficiency compared to subjects treated with VLED. 971 individuals eligible for surgical, RYGB (n = 388), SG (n = 201), and medical treatment (n = 382), in routine care, were included consecutively between 2015 and 2017. A random population sample from the WHO-MONICA project was used as a reference, (n = 414). S-calcium, S-25(OH)D (vitamin D), and S-PTH (parathyroid hormone) were measured in all persons with obesity at baseline and two years after treatment (n = 713). Self-reported use of vitamin D and calcium supplementation was registered.

RESULTS

Vitamin D deficiency (S-25(OH)D <25mmol/l) was found in 5.2% of the persons with obesity at baseline versus 1.7% of the general population (SMD>0.1). S-25(OH)D increased for all treatment groups but was higher in RYGB and SG (SMD>0.1, standardized mean difference). Thirteen subjects (1.8%) had vitamin D deficiency after obesity treatment.

CONCLUSION

Surgical intervention for obesity followed by vitamin D supplementation was not associated with a higher risk for vitamin D deficiency, irrespective of surgery type, compared to individuals on medical treatment. However, persons living with obesity seeking weight loss treatment are more likely to have deficient vitamin D levels compared to the general population.

Association of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists with serious liver events among patients with type 2 diabetes: A Scandinavian cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Clinical trials suggest that glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists may have beneficial effects on NAFLD, but the impact on hard hepatic end points is unknown. We assessed the association between the use of GLP-1 receptor agonists and the risk of serious liver events in routine clinical practice.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Cohort study using data from nationwide registers in Sweden, Denmark, and Norway, 2007-2020, including 91,479 initiators of GLP-1 receptor agonists and 244,004 initiators of the active comparator, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, without a history of chronic liver disease other than NAFLD/NASH. The primary outcome was serious liver events: a composite of incident compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and HCC. Secondary outcomes were the individual components of the primary outcome. Cox regression was used to estimate HRs, using propensity score weighting to control for confounding. Users of GLP-1 receptor agonists had 608 serious liver events (adjusted incidence rate: 16.9 events per 10,000 person-years), compared with 1770 events among users of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (19.2 events per 10,000 person-years). The adjusted HR was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.75 to 0.97), and the rate difference was -2.1 (-4.4 to 0.1) events per 10,000 person-years. In secondary outcome analyses, the adjusted HR was 0.85 (0.75 to 0.97) for compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and 1.05 (0.80 to 1.39) for HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of GLP-1 receptor agonists was associated with a significantly reduced risk of serious liver events, driven by a reduction of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis.

Use of DPP4 Inhibitors and GLP-1 Receptor Agonists and Risk of Intestinal Obstruction: Scandinavian Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Concerns have been raised that the incretin-based diabetes drugs dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists may increase the risk of intestinal obstruction. We aimed to assess the association between use of DPP4 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists and the risk of intestinal obstruction.

METHODS

Using data from nationwide registers in Sweden, Denmark, and Norway, 2013-2021, we conducted 2 cohort studies, one for DPP4 inhibitors and one for GLP-1 receptor agonists, to investigate the risk of intestinal obstruction as compared with an active comparator drug class (sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 [SGLT2] inhibitors).

RESULTS

Among 19,0321 new users of DPP4 inhibitors (median (interquartile range [IQR]) follow-up time, 1.3 [0.6-2.6] years) and 139,315 new users of SGLT2 inhibitors (median [IQR] follow-up time, 0.8 [0.4-1.7] years), 919 intestinal obstruction events occurred. Use of DPP4 inhibitors, as compared with SGLT2 inhibitors, was not associated with a statistically significant increase in risk of intestinal obstruction (adjusted incidence rate, 2.0 vs 1.8 per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-1.34). Among 121,254 new users of GLP-1 receptor agonists (median [standard deviation] follow-up time, 0.9 [0.4-1.9] years) and 185,027 new users of SGLT2 inhibitors (median [IQR] follow-up time, 0.8 [0.4-1.8] years), 557 intestinal obstruction events occurred. Use of GLP-1 receptor agonists was not associated with a statistically significant increase in risk of intestinal obstruction (adjusted incidence rate, 1.3 vs 1.6 per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-1.01).

CONCLUSIONS

In this analysis of nationwide data from 3 countries, previous safety signals indicating an increased risk of intestinal obstruction with use of DPP4 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists were not confirmed.

Serum IL-23 significantly decreased in obese patients with psoriatic arthritis six months after a structured weight loss intervention

INTRODUCTION

Patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) are frequently obese. We have previously shown decreased disease activity in patients with PsA with a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 33 kg/m² following weight loss treatment with Very Low Energy Diet (VLED), resulting in a median weight loss of 18.6% at six months (M6) after baseline (BL). In this study we assessed the effects of VLED on cytokines and adipokines at M6 in the same patients with PsA and controls (matched on sex, age and weight).

METHODS

VLED (640 kcal/day) during 12 or 16 weeks, depending on BL BMI < 40 or ≥ 40 kg/m², was taken and followed by an energy-restricted diet. Cytokines and adipokines were measured with Magnetic Luminex Assays at BL and M6.

RESULTS

Serum interleukin (IL)-23, (median (interquartile range) 0.40 (0.17-0.54) ng/mL vs. 0.18 (0.10-0.30) ng/mL, p < 0.001) and leptin (26.28 (14.35-48.73) ng/mL vs. 9.25 (4.40-16.24) ng/mL, p < 0.001) was significantly decreased in patients with PsA. Serum total (tot)-adiponectin and high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin increased significantly. Similar findings were found in controls. Also, in patients with PsA, ∆BMI was positively correlated with ∆IL-23 (r_S = 0.671, p < 0.001). In addition, significant positive correlations were found between ΔBMI and ΔDisease Activity Score (DAS28CRP), ΔCRP, Δtumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, ΔIL-13, ∆IL-17 and Δleptin, and negative correlations between ΔBMI and Δtot-adiponectin.

CONCLUSIONS

Weight loss was associated with decreased levels of leptin and cytokines, in particular IL-23. These findings may partly explain the anti-inflammatory effect of weight reduction in PsA.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02917434, registered on September 21, 2016, retrospectively registered.

SCORE2-Diabetes: 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation in type 2 diabetes in Europe

AIMS

To develop and validate a recalibrated prediction model (SCORE2-Diabetes) to estimate the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 2 diabetes in Europe.

METHODS AND RESULTS

SCORE2-Diabetes was developed by extending SCORE2 algorithms using individual-participant data from four large-scale datasets comprising 229 460 participants (43 706 CVD events) with type 2 diabetes and without previous CVD. Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models were used including conventional risk factors (i.e. age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total, and HDL-cholesterol), as well as diabetes-related variables (i.e. age at diabetes diagnosis, glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c] and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]). Models were recalibrated to CVD incidence in four European risk regions. External validation included 217 036 further individuals (38 602 CVD events), and showed good discrimination, and improvement over SCORE2 (C-index change from 0.009 to 0.031). Regional calibration was satisfactory. SCORE2-Diabetes risk predictions varied several-fold, depending on individuals' levels of diabetes-related factors. For example, in the moderate-risk region, the estimated 10-year CVD risk was 11% for a 60-year-old man, non-smoker, with type 2 diabetes, average conventional risk factors, HbA1c of 50 mmol/mol, eGFR of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 60 years. By contrast, the estimated risk was 17% in a similar man, with HbA1c of 70 mmol/mol, eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 50 years. For a woman with the same characteristics, the risk was 8% and 13%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

SCORE2-Diabetes, a new algorithm developed, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of CVD in individuals with type 2 diabetes, enhances identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

Years of Cardiovascular Complications and Risk Factors in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: A Nationwide Swedish Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The goal of this work was to investigate trends (2001-2019) for cardiovascular events and cardiometabolic risk factor levels in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and matched control subjects.

METHODS

This study included 679 072 individuals with T2D from the Swedish National Diabetes Register and 2 643  800 matched control subjects. Incident outcomes comprised coronary artery disease, acute myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease, and heart failure (HF). Trends in time to first event for each outcome were analyzed with Cox regression and standardized incidence rates. In the group with T2D, Cox regression was also used to assess risk factor levels beyond target and outcomes, as well as the relative importance of each risk factor to each model.

RESULTS

Among individuals with T2D, incidence rates per 10 000 person-years in 2001 and 2019 were as follows: acute myocardial infarction, 73.9 (95% CI, 65.4-86.8) and 41.0 (95% CI, 39.5-42.6); coronary artery disease, 205.1 (95% CI, 186.8-227.5) and 80.2 (95% CI, 78.2-82.3); cerebrovascular disease, 83.9 (95% CI, 73.6-98.5) and 46.2 (95% CI, 44.9-47.6); and HF, 98.3 (95% CI, 89.4-112.0) and 75.9 (95% CI, 74.4-77.5). The incidence for HF plateaued around 2013, a trend that then persisted. In individuals with T2D, glycated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and lipids were independently associated with outcomes. Body mass index alone potentially explained >30% of HF risk in T2D. For those with T2D with no risk factor beyond target, there was no excess cardiovascular risk compared with control subjects except for HF, with increased hazard with T2D even when no risk factor was above target (hazard ratio, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.35-1.67]). Risk for coronary artery disease and cerebrovascular disease increased in a stepwise fashion for each risk factor not within target. Glycated hemoglobin was most prognostically important for incident atherosclerotic events, as was body mass index for incident of HF.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk and rates for atherosclerotic complications and HF are generally decreasing among individuals with T2D, although HF incidence has notably plateaued in recent years. Modifiable risk factors within target levels were associated with lower risks for outcomes. This was particularly notable for systolic blood pressure and glycated hemoglobin for atherosclerotic outcomes and body mass index for heart failure.

Anaemia in patients with self-reported use of iron supplements in the BAriatric surgery SUbstitution and nutrition study: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

After bariatric surgery, micronutrient deficiencies may lead to anaemia. To prevent post-operative deficiencies, patients are recommended lifelong micronutrient supplementation. Studies investigating the effectiveness of supplementation to prevent anaemia after bariatric surgery are scarce. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between nutritional deficiencies and anaemia in patients who report use of supplementation two years after bariatric surgery versus patients who do not.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Obese (BMI≥35 kg/m²) individuals (n = 971) were recruited at Sahlgrenska University Hospital in Gothenburg, Sweden between 2015 and 2017. The interventions were Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), n = 382, sleeve gastrectomy (SG), n = 201, or medical treatment (MT), n = 388. Blood samples and self-reported data on supplements were collected at baseline and two years post treatment. Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin <120 g/L for females and <130 g/L for males. Standard statistical methods, including a logistic regression model and a machine learning algorithm, were used to analyse data. The frequency of anaemia increased from baseline in patients treated with RYGB (3·0% vs 10·5%; p < 0·05). Neither iron-dependent biochemistry nor frequency of anaemia differed between participants who reported use of iron supplements and those who did not at the two-year follow-up. Low preoperative level of haemoglobin and high postoperative percent excessive BMI loss increased the predicted probability of anaemia two years after surgery.

CONCLUSION

The results from this study indicate that iron deficiency or anaemia may not be prevented by substitutional treatment per current guidelines after bariatric surgery and highlights there is reason to ensure adequate preoperative micronutrient levels.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

March 03, 2015; NCT03152617.

Health care registers can be instrumental for endpoint capture in clinical diabetes trials: example of microvascular complications in Swedish patients with type 2 diabetes

AIMS

SMARTEST is a register-based randomized clinical trial (RRCT) that compares dapagliflozin to metformin in early-stage type 2 diabetes. The primary outcome includes progression of microvascular complications based on data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR). In this sub-study, the aim was to validate microvascular complication variables in the NDR against electronic health records (EHRs).

METHODS

Data were extracted from EHRs of 276 SMARTEST participants with a median observation period of 3 years in the Uppsala, Örebro and Sörmland counties and compared with NDR data. Agreement was determined for all corresponding data entries as well as for progression of microvascular complications after randomization.

RESULTS

The agreement for all corresponding data entries was 98.9% (Intraclass Correlation Coefficient 0.999) for creatinine and eGFR, 95.1% for albuminuria, 91.6% for foot-at-risk and 98.2% for retinopathy status (Kappa 0.67-0.91). The agreement for progression of microvascular complications was 98.0% for CKD stage, 98.9% for albuminuria grade, 96.3% for foot-at-risk grade and 99.6% for retinopathy grade progression (Gwet's AC₁ 0.96-1.00).

CONCLUSION

Microvascular complication variables in the NDR show good agreement with EHR data. The use of a well-established national health care registry, exemplified by the NDR, for endpoint collection in RRCTs such as SMARTEST is supported by this study.

Glycemic control and outcome after carotid intervention in patients with T2D: A Swedish nationwide cohort study

AIMS

To investigate the association between glycemic control and outcome in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) after carotid intervention due to carotid stenosis.

METHODS

Observational nationwide population-based cohort study using inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) and Cox regressions with covariates, that is, 4 stepwise models, investigating the relationship between terciles of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels and stroke or death.

RESULTS

1115 subjects with T2D undergoing carotid intervention were included during Jan 1st 2009 to Dec 31st 2015. Divided into terciles, with a mean HbA1c level of 44 (tercile 1), 53 (tercile 2), and 72 (tercile 3) mmol/mol. By using IPTW and Cox regression, each model was stepwise introduced for the investigating of relative risks, that is, hazard ratios (HRs) with associated 95% confidence intervals (CI). There was a significant increased risk for stroke or death, in every model observed for tercile 3, compared to tercile 1: HR for model 4: 1.35 (95% CI 1.02-1.78). No difference for stroke or death within 30 days was observed between the groups.

CONCLUSION

Poor glycemic control in people with T2D after carotid intervention is associated with an increased long-term risk for stroke or death.

Glycemic control and sepsis risk in adults with type 1 diabetes

AIMS

To study the association between HbA1c and sepsis in adults with type 1 diabetes, and to explore the relationship between HbA1c and mortality among individuals who developed sepsis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We included 33,549 adult individuals with type 1 diabetes recorded in the Swedish National Diabetes Register between January, 2005 and December, 2015. We used multivariable Cox regression and restricted cubic spline analyses to study the relationship between HbA1c values and sepsis occurrence and association between HbA1c and mortality among those with sepsis.

RESULTS

A total of 713 (2.1%) individuals developed sepsis during the study period. Compared to the HbA1c reference interval of 48-52 mmol/mol (6.5-6.9%), the adjusted hazard ratio for sepsis was 2.50 (95% CI 1.18-5.29) for HbA1c <43 mmol/mol, 1.88 (95% CI 0.96-3.67) for HbA1c 43-47 mmol/mol, 1.78 (95% CI 1.09-2.89) for HbA1c 53-62 mmol/mol, 1.86 (95% CI 1.14-3.03) for HbA1c 63-72 mmol/mol, 3.15 (95% CI 1.91-5.19) for HbA1c 73-82 mmol/mol, and 4.26 (95% CI 2.53-7.16) for HbA1c >82 mmol/mol. On multivariable restricted cubic spline analysis we found a J-shaped association between HbA1c and sepsis risk, with the lowest risk observed around a HbA1c of 53 mmol/mol. We found no association between HbA1c and mortality among those individuals who developed sepsis.

CONCLUSIONS

In our nationwide observational study of adult individuals with type 1 diabetes we found a J-shaped relationship between HbA1c and risk of sepsis, with lowest risk at HbA1c levels around 53 mmol/mol (7.0%). HbA1c was not associated with mortality in individuals affected by sepsis. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Risk factors variability and cardiovascular risk among patients with diabetes: a nationwide observational study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular risk factors control is fluctuating, tends to change over time, and is potentially impacted by multifactorial interactions. Currently, the existence of risk factors, rather than their variability or interplay with one another, is used to define the population at risk. The association between variability of risk factors and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk among patients with T2DM remains debatable.

METHODS

Using registry-derived data, we identified 29,471 people with T2D, without CVD at baseline, and with at least five measurements of risk factors. Variability for each variable was expressed as quartiles of the standard deviation during three years (exposure). The incidence of myocardial infarction, stroke, and all-cause mortality was assessed during 4.80 (2.40-6.70) years following the exposure phase. The association between measures of variability and the risk of developing the outcome was investigated through multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis with stepwise variable selection. Then, the recursive partitioning and amalgamation (RECPAM) algorithm was used to explore the interaction among the variability of risk factors associated with the outcome.

RESULTS

An association between the variability of HbA1c, body weight, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol with the outcome considered was found. Among the 6 classes of risk identified by RECPAM, patients with a high variability of both body weight and blood pressure had the highest risk (Class 6, HR = 1.81; 95% CI 1.61-2.05) compared with patients with low variability of both body weight and total cholesterol (Class 1, reference), despite a progressive reduction in the mean level of risk factors during successive visits. Individuals with high weight variability but low-moderate systolic blood pressure variability (Class 5, HR = 1.57; 95% CI 1.28-1.68), patients with moderate/high weight variability associated with high/very high HbA1c variability (Class 4, HR = 1.33; 95%CI 1.20-1.49), subjects with moderate/high weight variability and with low/moderate HbA1c variability (Class 3, HR = 1.12; 95%CI 1.00-1.25), as well as those with low weight variability associated with high/very high total cholesterol variability (Class 2, HR = 1.14; 95%CI 1.00-1.30) also showed a significant increase in the risk of event.

CONCLUSIONS

Combined high variability of two risk factors, particularly body weight and blood pressure, is associated with cardiovascular risk among patients with T2DM. These findings highlight the importance of continuous balancing of multiple risk factors.

Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter 2 Inhibitor Treatment and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: Scandinavian Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between use of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and the risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) in routine clinical practice.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used nationwide registers in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from 2013 to 2018 in order to include patients without a history of AF who were newly prescribed an SGLT2 inhibitor or an active comparator (glucagon-like peptide 1 [GLP-1] receptor agonist). We performed a cohort study to assess new-onset AF in intention-to-treat analyses using Cox regression, adjusted for baseline covariates with propensity score weighting.

RESULTS

We identified 79,343 new users of SGLT2 inhibitors (59.2% dapagliflozin, 40.0% empagliflozin, 0.8% canagliflozin, <0.1% ertugliflozin) and 57,613 new users of GLP-1 receptor agonists. Mean age of the study cohort was 61 years and 60% were men. The adjusted incidence rate of new-onset AF was 8.6 per 1,000 person-years for new users of SGLT2 inhibitors compared with 10.0 per 1,000 person-years for new users of GLP-1 receptor agonists. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was 0.89 (95% CI 0.81-0.96), and the rate difference was 1.4 fewer events per 1,000 person-years (95% CI 0.6-2.1). Using an as-treated exposure definition, the aHR for new-onset AF was 0.87 (95% CI 0.76-0.99). No statistically significant heterogeneity of the aHRs was observed between subgroups of patients with and without a history of heart failure or major cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort study using nationwide data from three countries, use of SGLT2 inhibitors, compared with GLP-1 receptor agonists, was associated with a modestly reduced risk of new-onset AF.

Estimating individual lifetime risk of incident cardiovascular events in adults with Type 2 diabetes: an update and geographical calibration of the DIAbetes Lifetime perspective model (DIAL2)

AIMS

The 2021 European Society of Cardiology cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend the use of (lifetime) risk prediction models to aid decisions regarding intensified preventive treatment options in adults with Type 2 diabetes, e.g. the DIAbetes Lifetime perspective model (DIAL model). The aim of this study was to update the DIAL model using contemporary and representative registry data (DIAL2) and to systematically calibrate the model for use in other European countries.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The DIAL2 model was derived in 467 856 people with Type 2 diabetes without a history of CVD from the Swedish National Diabetes Register, with a median follow-up of 7.3 years (interquartile range: 4.0-10.6 years) and comprising 63 824 CVD (including fatal CVD, non-fatal stroke and non-fatal myocardial infarction) events and 66 048 non-CVD mortality events. The model was systematically recalibrated to Europe's low- and moderate-risk regions using contemporary incidence data and mean risk factor distributions. The recalibrated DIAL2 model was externally validated in 218 267 individuals with Type 2 diabetes from the Scottish Care Information-Diabetes (SCID) and Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). In these individuals, 43 074 CVD events and 27 115 non-CVD fatal events were observed. The DIAL2 model discriminated well, with C-indices of 0.732 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.726-0.739] in CPRD and 0.700 (95% CI 0.691-0.709) in SCID.

CONCLUSION

The recalibrated DIAL2 model provides a useful tool for the prediction of CVD-free life expectancy and lifetime CVD risk for people with Type 2 diabetes without previous CVD in the European low- and moderate-risk regions. These long-term individualized measures of CVD risk are well suited for shared decision-making in clinical practice as recommended by the 2021 CVD ESC prevention guidelines.

[Considerations on treatment with SGLT2 inhibitor during acute illness]

During the last few years SGLT2 inhibitors have quickly become an important alternative in treating type 2 diabetes, heart failure and chronic kidney disease. The hallmark studies that resulted in inclusion of SGLT2 inhibitors in international treatment guidelines for these diseases excluded individuals with recent acute illness and thus the evidence on treatment in acute situations is scarce. Initiation of treatment is recommended in stable patients and not during acute illness that can increase insulin resistance and thus need for insulin. Insufficient insulin levels, due to relative or complete insulin deficiency, can lead to ketoacidosis in individuals with diabetes during treatment with SGLT2 inhibitors. Temporary discontinuation of SGLT2 inhibitors should be considered during periods of acute illness.

Use of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists according to the 2019 ESC guidelines and the 2019 ADA/EASD consensus report in a national population of patients with type 2 diabetes

AIMS

To assess treatment eligibility for, and received treatment with, sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2) and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists according to the 2019 ADA/EASD consensus report and the 2019 ESC guidelines in a nationwide sample of patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Both sets of guidelines included the treatment indications of heart failure, chronic kidney disease and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease while only the 2019 ESC guidelines also recommended treatment based on high or very high cardiovascular risk. The analyses included 435 000 patients with type 2 diabetes identified from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (2020-2021). According to the 2019 ESC guidelines, 79.5% were recommended any of the two drugs (SGLT2 inhibitors: 37.2%; SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP-1 receptor agonists: 40.9%; GLP-1 receptor agonists: 1.4%). According to the 2019 ADA/EASD consensus report, 48.8% were recommended any of the two drugs (SGLT2 inhibitors: 37.2%; GLP-1 receptor agonists: 11.6%). Of those who had been recommended any of the two drugs, 33·7% had received the recommended treatment according to the 2019 ESC guidelines and 25·4% according to the 2019 ADA/EASD consensus report.

CONCLUSIONS

In this nationwide study, the proportion of patients with type 2 diabetes who were recommended treatment with an SGLT2 inhibitor or a GLP-1 receptor agonist was approximately 80% according to the 2019 ESC guidelines and around half according to the 2019 ADA/EASD consensus report. Uptake of these recommendations in routine clinical practice was limited.

Nationwide cardiovascular risk categorization: applying the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines to the Swedish National Diabetes Register

AIMS

The 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines recommend that patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) with a very high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk receive cardiovascular (CV)-protective glucose-lowering medication (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists or sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors). This analysis compared previous prescribing practices with the ESC recommendations.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients in the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR) with T2D, aged 18-90 years, not receiving CV-protective glucose-lowering medication in 2017 were identified, and the ESC criteria for very high CVD risk was applied. The composite outcome of major adverse CV events (MACE; defined as CV death, non-fatal stroke or non-fatal myocardial infarction) during 2017 was calculated and the number of MACE avoided with semaglutide, an example of a CV-protective glucose-lowering medication, was estimated for patients within a certain CV risk score.Of the 320,028 patients in the NDR with T2D who were not receiving CV-protective glucose-lowering medication, 129,512 patients had a very high CVD risk. Patients with a very high CVD risk had a high incidence of MACE (75.4 events/1000 person-years), which was higher in those with atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) with and without elevated glycated haemoglobin (>9%; 136.5 and 90.8 events/1000 person-years, respectively). If patients with a very high CVD risk, according to the ESC, and ASCVD received semaglutide, 803 MACE may have been avoided in 2017.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis highlights differences between previous prescribing practices in Sweden and the 2021 ESC guidelines, and offers strategies to prioritize CV-protective glucose-lowering medication for patients who would benefit most.

Development and Validation of a Lifetime Risk Model for Kidney Failure and Treatment Benefit in Type 2 Diabetes: 10-Year and Lifetime Risk Prediction Models

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Individuals with type 2 diabetes are at a higher risk of developing kidney failure. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a decision support tool for estimating 10-year and lifetime risks of kidney failure in individuals with type 2 diabetes as well as estimating individual treatment effects of preventive medication.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

The prediction algorithm was developed in 707,077 individuals with prevalent and incident type 2 diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Register for 2002-2019. Two Cox proportional regression functions for kidney failure (first occurrence of kidney transplantation, long-term dialysis, or persistent eGFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m2) and all-cause mortality as respective end points were developed using routinely available predictors. These functions were combined into life tables to calculate the predicted survival without kidney failure while using all-cause mortality as the competing outcome. The model was externally validated in 256,265 individuals with incident type 2 diabetes from the Scottish Care Information Diabetes database between 2004 and 2019.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 6.8 years (interquartile range, 3.2-10.6), 8004 (1%) individuals with type 2 diabetes in the Swedish National Diabetes Register cohort developed kidney failure, and 202,078 (29%) died. The model performed well, with c statistics for kidney failure of 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.88 to 0.90) for internal validation and 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.76) for external validation. Calibration plots showed good agreement in observed versus predicted 10-year risk of kidney failure for both internal and external validation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study derived and externally validated a prediction tool for estimating 10-year and lifetime risks of kidney failure as well as life years free of kidney failure gained with preventive treatment in individuals with type 2 diabetes using easily available clinical predictors.

PODCAST

This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2022_11_04_CJN05020422.mp3.

Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Both Diabetes and Phenotypic Familial Hypercholesterolemia: A Nationwide Register-Based Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Patients with diabetes or familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) have an increased incidence of cardiovascular diseases compared with the population, but whether this risk is exacerbated in patients with combined traits is unknown.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In this Swedish nationwide, register-based cohort study, patients with diabetes were included between 2002 and 2020. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with or without phenotypic FH (≥6 points for phenotypic FH according to Dutch Lipid Clinic Network criteria) compared with general population control subjects without diabetes as reference.

RESULTS

A total of 45,585 patients with type 1 diabetes (227,923 control subjects) and 655,250 patients with type 2 diabetes (655,250 control subjects) were followed for a median of 14.1 and 7.9 years, respectively. Of those, 153 and 7,197, respectively, had phenotypic FH. Compared with control subjects, patients with diabetes and phenotypic FH had higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (type 1: hazard ratio 21.3 [95% CI 14.6-31.0]; type 2: 2.40 [2.19-2.63]) and of a cardiovascular event (type 1: 15.1 [11.1-20.5]; type 2: 2.73 [2.58-2.89]). Further, patients with diabetes and phenotypic FH had higher LDL-cholesterol levels during observation (P < 0.05) and increased risk of all major cardiovascular outcomes (P < 0.0001) than patients with diabetes but without FH. The proportion receiving lipid-lowering treatment was higher in patients with phenotypic FH (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with both diabetes and phenotypic FH are more at risk for adverse cardiovascular outcomes and have higher LDL-cholesterol levels despite receiving intensified lipid-lowering therapy.

Registry-based randomised clinical trials: a remedy for evidence-based diabetes care?

This narrative review describes a new approach to navigation in a challenging landscape of clinical drug development in diabetes. Successful outcome studies in recent years have led to new indications and guidelines in type 2 diabetes, yet the number of clinical trials in diabetes is now declining. This is due to many environmental factors acting in concert, including the prioritisation of funding for other diseases, high costs of large randomised clinical trials, increase in regulatory requirements and limited entry of novel candidate drugs. There is a need for novel and cost-effective paradigms of clinical development to meet these and other challenges. The concept of registry-based randomised clinical trials (RRCTs) is an attractive option. In this review we focus on type 2 diabetes and the prevention of cardiovascular and microvascular comorbidities and mortality, using the Swedish SMARTEST trial as an example of an RRCT. We also give some examples from other disease areas. The RRCT concept is a novel, cost-effective and scientifically sound approach for conducting large-scale diabetes trials in a real-world setting.

Range of Risk Factor Levels, Risk Control, and Temporal Trends for Nephropathy and End-stage Kidney Disease in Patients With Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To investigate trends, optimal levels for cardiometabolic risk factors, and multifactorial risk control in diabetic nephropathy and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in patients with diabetes and matched control subjects.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This study included 701,622 patients with diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Register and 2,738,137 control subjects. Trends were analyzed with standardized incidence rates. Cox regression was used to assess excess risk, optimal risk factor levels, and risk according to the number of risk factors, in diabetes.

RESULTS

ESKD incidence among patients with and without diabetes initially declined until 2007 and increased thereafter, whereas diabetic nephropathy decreased throughout follow-up. In patients with diabetes, baseline values for glycated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure (SBP), triglycerides, and BMI were associated with outcomes. Hazard ratio (HR) for ESKD for patients with type 2 diabetes who had all included risk factors at target was 1.60 (95% CI 1.49-1.71) compared with control subjects and for patients with type 1 diabetes 6.10 (95% CI 4.69-7.93). Risk for outcomes increased in a stepwise fashion for each risk factor not at target. Excess risk for ESKD in type 2 diabetes showed a HR of 2.32 (95% CI 2.30-2.35) and in type 1 diabetes 10.92 (95% CI 10.15-11.75), compared with control.

CONCLUSIONS

Incidence of diabetic nephropathy has declined substantially, whereas ESKD incidence has increased. Traditional and modifiable risk factors below target levels were associated with lower risks for outcomes, particularly notable for the causal risk factors of SBP and HbA1c, with potential implications for care.

Left-Sided Degenerative Valvular Heart Disease in Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUND

The role of diabetes in the development of valvular heart disease, and, in particular, the relation with risk factor control, has not been extensively studied.

METHODS

We included 715 143 patients with diabetes registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register and compared them with 2 732 333 matched controls randomly selected from the general population. First, trends were analyzed with incidence rates and Cox regression, which was also used to assess diabetes as a risk factor compared with controls, and, second, separately in patients with diabetes according to the presence of 5 risk factors.

RESULTS

The incidence of valvular outcomes is increasing among patients with diabetes and the general population. In type 2 diabetes, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, and renal function were associated with valvular lesions. Hazard ratios for patients with type 2 diabetes who had nearly all risk factors within target ranges, compared with controls, were as follows: aortic stenosis 1.34 (95% CI, 1.31-1.38), aortic regurgitation 0.67 (95% CI, 0.64-0.70), mitral stenosis 1.95 (95% CI, 1.76-2.20), and mitral regurgitation 0.82 (95% CI, 0.79-0.85). Hazard ratios for patients with type 1 diabetes and nearly optimal risk factor control were as follows: aortic stenosis 2.01 (95% CI, 1.58-2.56), aortic regurgitation 0.63 (95% CI, 0.43-0.94), and mitral stenosis 3.47 (95% CI, 1.37-8.84). Excess risk in patients with type 2 diabetes for stenotic lesions showed hazard ratios for aortic stenosis 1.62 (95% CI, 1.59-1.65), mitral stenosis 2.28 (95% CI, 2.08-2.50), and excess risk in patients with type 1 diabetes showed hazard ratios of 2.59 (95% CI, 2.21-3.05) and 11.43 (95% CI, 6.18-21.15), respectively. Risk for aortic and mitral regurgitation was lower in type 2 diabetes: 0.81 (95% CI, 0.78-0.84) and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.92-0.98), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with type 1 and 2 diabetes have greater risk for stenotic lesions, whereas risk for valvular regurgitation was lower in patients with type 2 diabetes. Patients with well-controlled cardiovascular risk factors continued to display higher risk for valvular stenosis, without a clear stepwise decrease in risk between various degrees of risk factor control.

POS1092 THE IMPACT OF A STRUCTURED WEIGHT LOSS PROGRAM ON PHYSICAL FITNESS IN PATIENTS WITH PSORIATIC ARTHRITIS AND OBESITY COMPARED TO MATCHED CONTROLS: A PROSPECTIVE INTERVENTIONAL STUDY

Background

Obesity is over-represented in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and associated with increased disease activity. We have previously shown that weight loss treatment with Very Low Energy Diet (VLED) in patients with PsA and obesity was associated with a sustained weight reduction and significant improvement of the disease activity in joints, entheses and skin during 24 months follow-up. A side effect with a large weight loss is however a concomitant reduction of muscle mass, which can negatively affect physical fitness.

Objectives

This study aimed to evaluate the effects of weight loss treatment on physical fitness i.e., muscle strength, cardiorespiratory fitness, body composition and self-reported physical functioning, in patients with PsA and obesity compared to matched controls undergoing the same treatment.

Methods

In total, 46 patients with PsA (Caspar criteria) and obesity and 52 controls (matched for age, sex, body weight and height) were included. VLED (640 kcal/day) was provided to all participants for 12-16 weeks depending on baseline BMI (<40 or ≥40 kg/m2), followed by reintroduction of energy restricted diet. Brief support for physical activity was given.

Primary outcome was muscle strength, assessed in hand-grip with a dynamometer (Grippit) and in leg muscle by measuring the time (seconds) needed to stand up ten times from a standard chair (Timed Stand Test: TST). Secondary outcomes were cardiorespiratory fitness (O2 l/ min), measured with the Åstrand’s submaximal bicycle test, body composition analyzed with dual energy x-ray absorptiometry and physical functioning, assessed with the Short Form 36 Health Survey Physical Component Score (SF-36PCS). Outcomes were evaluated at baseline (BL), six (M6) and 12 months (M12).

Results

In total, 41 PsA patients (median age 54; 63% women) and 42 controls (median age 54; 74% women) completed the treatment. At M6 the median weight loss since baseline in patients and controls was 18.9 kg and 23.0 kg respectively (p=0.546), and at M12 16.1 kg and 16.6 kg (p=0.885). Significant changes (all p<0.001) were seen at M12 in the body composition of both patients and controls, with decreases in total fat mass (-30.1% vs. -27.4%), total lean mass (-7.0 % vs -8.3 %), lean arm mass (-13.7% vs -2.4%) and lean leg mass (-6.0% vs -8.6%).

Leg muscle strength did however improve in both patients and controls at M6 (p<0.001) and remained improved at M12 (p=0.001 and p<0.001), while hand-grip strength was unchanged in both groups. Cardiorespiratory fitness increased in controls at M6 (p=0.018) and M12 (p=0.028), but not in the patients. Physical functioning improved in both groups at M6 and remained improved at M12.

Conclusion

Patients with PsA and obesity can benefit from weight loss treatment without risk of deterioration in muscle strength. However, muscle strength and cardiorespiratory fitness were below suggested normative values for the majority of the patients at all timepoints, implying that more structured exercise strategies might be warranted to counteract physical fitness deficiencies in patients with PsA undergoing weight loss treatment.

Table 1.PsA patientsn=41Controlsn=42BLM12p-valueBLM12p-valueBMI, kg/m235.2 34.1–38.130.5 28.0–32.9<0.00138.5 36.9–41.732.6 30.3–34.8<0.001Hand-grip strength, N268 196–326244 180–3520.457304 280–348300 244–3840.573Leg strength TST, sec26.9 22.1–35.423.2 19.4–30.40.00123.7 21.0–32.820.1 16.8–25.9<0.001Cardiorespiratory fitness, O2 l/ min2.0 1.8–2.22.1 1.8–2.60.0982.0 1.6–2.32.1 1.7–2.40.028Tot fat mass, kg48.5 41.7–56.733.9 25.9–40.5<0.00150.7 46.2–59.236.8 27.8–39.5<0.001Tot lean mass, kg51.9 45.9–61.848.3 43.6–58.3<0.00149.7 46.9–58.645.6 44.5–57.9<0.001Lean mass arm, kg2.79 2.48–3.852.43 2.10–3.45<0.0012.63 2.39–3.342.57 2.22–3.36<0.001Lean mass leg, kg8.9 8.0–10.98.4 7.2–9.8<0.0019.1 8.5–10.48.1 7.7–9.8<0.001SF-36 PCS,score 0-10035.8 24.9–46.346.1 34.5–49.80.00845.7 32.9–50.951.6 43.8–55.4<0.001

Figures are Median IQR

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

Long-Term Cost Effectiveness of Oral Semaglutide Versus Empagliflozin and Sitagliptin for the Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes in the Swedish Setting

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of oral semaglutide versus other oral glucose-lowering drugs for the management of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Sweden.

METHODS

The Swedish Institute for Health Economics Diabetes Cohort Model was used to assess the cost effectiveness of oral semaglutide 14 mg versus empagliflozin 25 mg and oral semaglutide 14 mg versus sitagliptin 100 mg, using data from the head-to-head PIONEER 2 and 3 trials, respectively, in which these treatments were added to metformin (± sulphonylurea). Base-case and scenario analyses were conducted. Robustness was evaluated with deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

In the base-case analyses, greater initial lowering of glycated haemoglobin levels with oral semaglutide versus empagliflozin and oral semaglutide versus sitagliptin, respectively, resulted in reduced incidences of micro- and macrovascular complications and was associated with lower costs of complications and indirect costs. Treatment costs were higher for oral semaglutide, resulting in higher total lifetime costs than with empagliflozin (Swedish Krona [SEK] 1,245,570 vs. 1,210,172) and sitagliptin (SEK1,405,789 vs. 1,377,381). Oral semaglutide was shown to be cost effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of SEK239,001 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) compared with empagliflozin and SEK120,848 per QALY compared with sitagliptin, from a payer perspective. ICERs were lower at SEK191,721 per QALY compared with empagliflozin and SEK95,234 per QALY compared with sitagliptin from a societal perspective. Results were similar in scenario analyses that incorporated cardiovascular effects, and also in sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

In a Swedish setting, oral semaglutide was cost effective compared with empagliflozin and sitagliptin for patients with T2D inadequately controlled on oral glucose-lowering drugs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02863328 (PIONEER 2; registered 11 August 2016) and NCT02607865 (PIONEER 3; registered 18 November 2015).

Comparing effects of obesity treatment with very low energy diet and bariatric surgery after 2 years: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To compare long-term effects and complications of medical treatment (MT) of obesity including very low energy diet with bariatric surgery.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This prospective study conducted in a clinical setting recruited individuals with body mass index (BMI) ≥35 kg/m² referred for obesity treatment. Demographic and anthropometric data, laboratory samples, and questionnaire replies were collected at baseline and 2 years.

PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTIONS

971 individuals were recruited 2015-2017. 382 received MT, 388 Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) and 201 sleeve gastrectomy (SG).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcomes included changes in anthropometric measures, metabolic variables and safety. These were analysed using a linear regression model. A logistic regression model was used to analyse composite variables for treatment success (secondary outcomes). A random forest (RF) model was used to examine the importance of 15 clinical domains as predictors for successful treatment.

RESULTS

Two-year data were available for 667 individuals (68.7%). Regarding primary outcomes, the decrease in excess BMI was 27.5%, 82.5% and 70.3% and proportion achieving a weight of >10% was 45.3%, 99.6% and 95.6% for MT, RYGB and SG, respectively (p<0.001). The groups were comparable regarding levels of vitamins, minerals and haemoglobin or safety measures. Likelihood for success (secondary outcome) was higher in the surgical groups (RYGB: OR 5.3 (95% CI 3.9 to 7.2) vs SG: OR 4.3 ((95% CI 3.0 to 6.2)) in reference to MT. Baseline anthropometry had the strongest predictive value for treatment success, according to the RF model.

CONCLUSIONS

In clinical practice, bariatric surgery by RYGB or SG is most effective, but meaningful weight loss is achievable by MT with strict caloric restriction and stepwise introduction of a normal diet. All treatments showed positive effects on well-being, cardiovascular risk factors, and levels of vitamins and minerals at 2-year follow-up and groups were similar regarding safety measures.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03152617.

The comparative cardiovascular and renal effectiveness of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists: A Scandinavian cohort study

AIM

To assess the comparative cardiovascular and renal effectiveness of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors versus glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists in routine clinical practice.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cohort study of nationwide registers from Sweden, Denmark, and Norway, including 87 525 new users of SGLT2 inhibitors and 63 921 new users of GLP-1 receptor agonists, was conducted using data from 2013-2018. Co-primary outcomes, analysed using an intention-to-treat exposure definition, were major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death), heart failure (hospitalization or death because of heart failure), and serious renal events (renal replacement therapy, hospitalization for renal events, and death from renal causes).

RESULTS

Use of SGLT2 inhibitors versus GLP-1 receptor agonists was associated with a higher risk of MACE (adjusted incidence rate: 15.2 vs. 14.4 events per 1000 person-years; HR 1.07 [95% CI 1.01-1.15]), a similar risk of heart failure (6.0 vs. 6.0 events per 1000 person-years; HR 1.02 [0.92-1.12]), and a lower risk of serious renal events (2.9 vs. 4.0 events per 1000 person-years; HR 0.76 [0.66-0.87]). In as-treated analyses, the HR (95% CI) was 1.11 (1.00-1.24) for MACE, 0.88 (0.74-1.04) for heart failure, and 0.60 (0.47-0.77) for serious renal events. In secondary outcome analyses, use of SGLT2 inhibitors versus GLP-1 receptor agonists was not associated with statistically significant differences for the risk of myocardial infarction (HR 1.09 [95% CI 1.00-1.19]), cardiovascular death (HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.84-1.12]), death from renal causes (HR 0.75 [95% CI 0.41-1.35]), or any cause death (HR 1.01 [95% CI 0.94-1.09]), while the risk of stroke was higher (HR 1.14 [95% CI 1.03-1.26]), and the risk of renal replacement therapy (HR 0.74 [95% CI 0.56-0.97]) and hospitalization for renal events (HR 0.75 [95% CI 0.65-0.88]) were lower among users of SGLT2 inhibitors.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of SGLT2 inhibitors versus GLP-1 receptor agonists was associated with a similar risk of heart failure and a lower risk of serious renal events, while use of GLP-1 receptor agonists versus SGLT2 inhibitors was associated with a slightly lower risk of MACE. In as-treated analyses, the associations with MACE and serious renal events increased in magnitude, and the HR for heart failure tended towards a protective association for SGLT2 inhibitors.

HbA1c variability predicts cardiovascular complications in type 2 diabetes regardless of being at glycemic target

Background

HbA1c variability has emerged as risk factor for cardiovascular diseases in diabetes. However, the impact of HbA1c variability on cardiovascular diseases in subjects within the recommended HbA1c target has been relatively unexplored.

Methods

Using data from a large database, we studied 101,533 people with type 2 diabetes without cardiovascular diseases. HbA1c variability was expressed as quartiles of the standard deviation of HbA1c during three years (exposure phase). The primary composite outcome included non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, all-cause mortality and was assessed during five years following the first three years of exposure to HbA1c variability (longitudinal phase). An expanded composite outcome including non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, coronary revascularization/reperfusion procedures, peripheral revascularization procedures, and all-cause mortality was also considered, as well as a series of specific cardiovascular complications. Cox models were adjusted for a large range of risk factors and results were expressed as adjusted hazard ratios.

Results

An association between HbA1c variability and all the outcomes considered was found. The correlation between HbA1c variability and cardiovascular complications development was confirmed in both the subgroups of subjects with a mean HbA1c ≤ 53 mmol/mol (recommended HbA1c target) or > 53 mmol/mol during the exposure phase. The risk related to HbA1c variability was higher in people with mean HbA1c ≤ 53 mmol/mol for the primary outcome (p for interaction 0.004), for the expanded secondary outcome (p for interaction 0.001) and for the stroke (p for interaction 0.001), even though HbA1c remained at the target during the follow-up.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that HbA1c variability may provide additional information for an optimized management of diabetes, particularly in people within the target of HbA1c.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01445-4.

Glycemic Control and Risk of Sepsis and Subsequent Mortality in Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the nature of the relationship between HbA1c and sepsis among individuals with type 2 diabetes, and to assess the association between sepsis and all-cause mortality in such patients.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We included 502,871 individuals with type 2 diabetes recorded in the Swedish National Diabetes Register and used multivariable Cox regression and restricted cubic spline analyses to assess the association between time-updated HbA1c values and sepsis occurrence between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2015. The association between sepsis and death was examined using multivariable Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

Overall, 14,534 (2.9%) patients developed sepsis during the study period. On multivariable Cox regression analysis, compared with an HbA1c of 48-52 mmol/mol (6.5-6.9%), the adjusted hazard ratio for sepsis was 1.15 (95% CI 1.07-1.24) for HbA1c <43 mmol/mol (6.1%), 0.93 (0.87-0.99) for HbA1c 53-62 mmol/mol (7.0-7.8%), 1.05 (0.97-1.13) for HbA1c 63-72 mmol/mol (7.9-8.7%), 1.14 (1.04-1.25) for HbA1c 73-82 mmol/mol (8.8-9.7%), and 1.52 (1.37-1.68) for HbA1c >82 mmol/mol (9.7%). In the cubic spline model, a reduction of the adjusted risk was observed within the lower HbA1c range until 53 mmol/mol (7.0%), with a hazard ratio of 0.78 (0.73-0.82) per SD; it increased thereafter (P for nonlinearity <0.001). As compared with patients without sepsis, the adjusted hazard ratio for death among patients with sepsis was 4.16 (4.03-4.30).

CONCLUSIONS

In a nationwide cohort of individuals with type 2 diabetes, we found a U-shaped association between HbA1c and sepsis and a fourfold increased risk of death among those developing sepsis.

Comorbidity and quality of life in obesity-a comparative study with the general population in Gothenburg, Sweden

CONTEXT

Obesity is considered to have a detrimental impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL).

OBJECTIVE

To compare HRQoL in a well-defined group of people with obesity with a population-based control group from the general public.

DESIGN

Observational cross-sectional cohort study with a reference population.

SETTING

The Regional Obesity Center at the Department of Medicine at Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden.

PARTICIPANTS

People with obesity (n = 1122) eligible for surgical and non-surgical obesity treatment in routine care were included consecutively between 2015 and 2017 into the BASUN study. Men and women from the WHO-MONICA-GOT project were used as a reference population (n = 414).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

HRQoL was measured with the RAND-36/Short Form-36 questionnaire (SF-36) and a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) for self-related health (SRH). Prescription drugs for hypertension, diabetes mellitus, depression, and anxiety were taken as a proxy for these conditions.

RESULTS

People with obesity rated their overall HRQoL lower than the reference population according to the SRH-VAS. Lower scores were reported on physical and social functioning, vitality, general and mental health after adjustment for age and use of prescription drugs (considered a proxy for burden of disease, or comorbidities) using the RAND-36/SF-36 questionnaire. Use of some psychopharmacological agents was more common in patients with obesity.

CONCLUSION

People with obesity seeking help with weight reduction are more likely to have lower physical and mental self-reported HRQoL than the general population.

Reduced expression of OXPHOS and DNA damage genes is linked to protection from microvascular complications in long-term type 1 diabetes: the PROLONG study

Type 1 diabetes is a chronic autoimmune disease requiring insulin treatment for survival. Prolonged duration of type 1 diabetes is associated with increased risk of microvascular complications. Although chronic hyperglycemia and diabetes duration have been considered as the major risk factors for vascular complications, this is not universally seen among all patients. Persons with long-term type 1 diabetes who have remained largely free from vascular complications constitute an ideal group for investigation of natural defense mechanisms against prolonged exposure of diabetes. Transcriptomic signatures obtained from RNA sequencing of the peripheral blood cells were analyzed in non-progressors with more than 30 years of diabetes duration and compared to the patients who progressed to microvascular complications within a shorter duration of diabetes. Analyses revealed that non-progressors demonstrated a reduction in expression of the oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) genes, which were positively correlated with the expression of DNA repair enzymes, namely genes involved in base excision repair (BER) machinery. Reduced expression of OXPHOS and BER genes was linked to decrease in expression of inflammation-related genes, higher glucose disposal rate and reduced measures of hepatic fatty liver. Results from the present study indicate that at transcriptomic level reduction in OXPHOS, DNA repair and inflammation-related genes is linked to better insulin sensitivity and protection against microvascular complications in persons with long-term type 1 diabetes.

Estimated glucose disposal rate and risk of stroke and mortality in type 2 diabetes: a nationwide cohort study

Background and aims

Insulin resistance contributes to the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and is also a cardiovascular risk factor. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential association between insulin resistance measured by estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) and risk of stroke and mortality thereof in people with T2D.

Materials and methods

Nationwide population based observational cohort study that included all T2D patients from the Swedish national diabetes registry between 2004 and 2016 with full data on eGDR and categorised as following: < 4, 4–6, 6–8, and ≥ 8 mg/kg/min. We calculated crude incidence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and used multiple Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) to assess the association between the risk of stroke and death, according to the eGDR categories in which the lowest category < 4 (i.e., highest grade of insulin resistance), served as a reference. The relative importance attributed of each factor in the eGDR formula was measured by the R² (± SE) values calculating the explainable log-likelihoods in the Cox regression.

Results

A total of 104 697 T2D individuals, 44.5% women, mean age of 63 years, were included. During a median follow up-time of 5.6 years, 4201 strokes occurred (4.0%). After multivariate adjustment the HRs (95% CI) for stroke in patients with eGDR categories between 4–6, 6–8 and > 8 were: 0.77 (0.69–0.87), 0.68 (0.58–0.80) and 0.60 (0.48–0.76), compared to the reference < 4. Corresponding numbers for the risk of death were: 0.82 (0.70–0.94), 0.75 (0.64–0.88) and 0.68 (0.53–0.89). The attributed relative risk R² (± SE) for each variable in the eGDR formula and stroke was for: hypertension (0.045 ± 0.0024), HbA1c (0.013 ± 0.0014), and waist (0.006 ± 0.0009), respectively.

Conclusion

A low eGDR (a measure of insulin resistance) is associated with an increased risk of stroke and death in individuals with T2D. The relative attributed risk was most important for hypertension.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-021-01394-4.

Use of incretin-based drugs and risk of cholangiocarcinoma: Scandinavian cohort study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Concerns have been raised regarding a potential association of use of the incretin-based drugs dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1)-receptor agonists with risk of cholangiocarcinoma. We examined this association in nationwide data from three countries.

METHODS

We used data from nationwide registers in Sweden, Denmark and Norway, 2007-2018, to conduct two cohort studies, one for DPP4 inhibitors and one for GLP-1-receptor agonists, to investigate the risk of incident cholangiocarcinoma compared with an active-comparator drug class (sulfonylureas). The cohorts included patients initiating treatment episodes with DPP4 inhibitors vs sulfonylureas, and GLP-1-receptor agonists vs sulfonylureas. We used Cox regression models, adjusted for potential confounders, to estimate hazard ratios from day 366 after treatment initiation to account for cancer latency.

RESULTS

The main analyses of DPP4 inhibitors included 1,414,144 person-years of follow-up from 222,577 patients receiving DPP4 inhibitors (median [IQR] follow-up time, 4.5 [2.6-7.0] years) and 123,908 patients receiving sulfonylureas (median [IQR] follow-up time, 5.1 [2.9-7.8] years) during which 350 cholangiocarcinoma events occurred. Use of DPP4 inhibitors, compared with sulfonylureas, was not associated with a statistically significant increase in risk of cholangiocarcinoma (incidence rate 26 vs 23 per 100,000 person-years; adjusted HR, 1.15 [95% CI 0.90, 1.46]; absolute rate difference 3 [95% CI -3, 10] events per 100,000 person-years). The main analyses of GLP-1-receptor agonists included 1,036,587 person-years of follow-up from 96,813 patients receiving GLP-1-receptor agonists (median [IQR] follow-up time, 4.4 [2.4-6.9] years) and 142,578 patients receiving sulfonylureas (median [IQR] follow-up time, 5.5 [3.2-8.1] years) during which 249 cholangiocarcinoma events occurred. Use of GLP-1-receptor agonists was not associated with a statistically significant increase in risk of cholangiocarcinoma (incidence rate 26 vs 23 per 100,000 person-years; adjusted HR, 1.25 [95% CI 0.89, 1.76]; absolute rate difference 3 [95% CI -5, 13] events per 100,000 patient-years).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

In this analysis using nationwide data from three countries, use of DPP4 inhibitors and GLP-1-receptor agonists, compared with sulfonylureas, was not associated with a significantly increased risk of cholangiocarcinoma.

Development of a life expectancy table for individuals with type 1 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Tables reporting life expectancies by common risk factors are available for individuals with type 2 diabetes; however, there is currently no published equivalent for individuals with type 1 diabetes. We aimed to develop a life expectancy table using a recently published simulation model for individuals with type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

The simulation model was developed using data from a real-world population of patients with type 1 diabetes selected from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. The following six important risk factors were included in the life table: sex; age; current smoking status; BMI; eGFR; and HbA_1c. For each of 1024 cells in the life expectancy table, a synthetic cohort containing 1000 individuals was created, with other risk factors assigned values representative of the real-world population. The simulations were executed for all synthetic cohorts and life expectancy for each cell was calculated as mean survival time of the individuals in the respective cohort.

RESULTS

There was a substantial variation in life expectancy across patients with different risk factor levels. Life expectancy of 20-year-old men varied from 29.3 years to 50.6 years, constituting a gap of 21.3 years between those with worst and best risk factor levels. In 20-year-old women, this gap was 18.9 years (life expectancy range 35.0-53.9 years). The variation in life expectancy was a function of the combination of risk factor values, with HbA_1c and eGFR consistently showing a negative and positive correlation, respectively, with life expectancy at any level combination of other risk factors. Individuals with the lowest level (20 kg/m²) and highest level of BMI (35 kg/m²) had a lower life expectancy compared with those with a BMI of 25 kg/m². Non-smokers and women had a higher life expectancy than smokers and men, respectively, with the difference in life expectancy ranging from 0.4 years to 2.7 years between non-smokers and smokers, and from 1.9 years to 5.9 years between women and men, depending on levels of other risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The life expectancy table generated in this study shows a substantial variation in life expectancy across individuals with different modifiable risk factors. The table allows for rapid communications of risk in an easily understood format between healthcare professionals, health economists, researchers, policy makers and patients. Particularly, it supports clinicians in their discussion with patients about the benefits of improving risk factors.

A registry-based randomised trial comparing an SGLT2 inhibitor and metformin as standard treatment of early stage type 2 diabetes (SMARTEST): Rationale, design and protocol

AIM

SGLT2 inhibitors have been shown to reduce cardiovascular and renal complications in type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients at high cardiovascular risk. Metformin is currently widely used as initial monotherapy in T2D but lacks convincing data to show that it reduces risk of complications. We aim to compare the SGLT2 inhibitor dapagliflozin and metformin as first-line T2D medication with regard to development of complications in a registry-based randomised controlled trial.

METHODS

The SGLT2 inhibitor or metformin as standard treatment of early stage type 2 diabetes (SMARTEST) trial will enrol 4300 subjects at 30-40 study sites in Sweden who will be randomised 1:1 to either metformin or dapagliflozin. Participants must have T2D duration <4 years, no prior cardiovascular disease, and be either drug-naïve or on monotherapy for T2D.

RESULTS

The primary endpoint is a composite of all-cause death, major adverse cardiovascular events and occurrence or progression of microvascular complications (retinopathy, nephropathy, diabetic foot lesions). Secondary endpoints include individual components of the primary endpoint, start of insulin therapy, risk factor biomarkers, patient-reported outcome measures, and cost-effectiveness analysis. Outcomes will primarily be assessed using nationwide healthcare registries.

CONCLUSIONS

The SMARTEST trial will investigate whether dapagliflozin is superior to metformin in preventing complications in early stage T2D. (Clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT03982381, EudraCT 2019-001046-17).

The BAriatic surgery SUbstitution and nutrition (BASUN) population: a data-driven exploration of predictors for obesity

BACKGROUND

The development of obesity is most likely due to a combination of biological and environmental factors some of which might still be unidentified. We used a machine learning technique to examine the relative importance of more than 100 clinical variables as predictors for BMI.

METHODS

BASUN is a prospective non-randomized cohort study of 971 individuals that received medical or surgical treatment (treatment choice was based on patient's preferences and clinical criteria, not randomization) for obesity in the Västra Götaland county in Sweden between 2015 and 2017 with planned follow-up for 10 years. This study includes demographic data, BMI, blood tests, and questionnaires before obesity treatment that cover three main areas: gastrointestinal symptoms and eating habits, physical activity and quality of life, and psychological health. We used random forest, with conditional variable importance, to study the relative importance of roughly 100 predictors of BMI, covering 15 domains. We quantified the predictive value of each individual predictor, as well as each domain.

RESULTS

The participants received medical (n = 382) or surgical treatment for obesity (Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, n = 388; sleeve gastrectomy, n = 201). There were minor differences between these groups before treatment with regard to anthropometrics, laboratory measures and results from questionnaires. The 10 individual variables with the strongest predictive value, in order of decreasing strength, were country of birth, marital status, sex, calcium levels, age, levels of TSH and HbA1c, AUDIT score, BE tendencies according to QEWPR, and TG levels. The strongest domains predicting BMI were: Socioeconomic status, Demographics, Biomarkers (notably TSH), Lifestyle/habits, Biomarkers for cardiovascular disease and diabetes, and Potential anxiety and depression.

CONCLUSIONS

Lifestyle, habits, age, sex and socioeconomic status are some of the strongest predictors for BMI levels. Potential anxiety and / or depression and other characteristics captured using questionnaires have strong predictive value. These results confirm previously suggested associations and advocate prospective studies to examine the value of better characterization of patients eligible for obesity treatment, and consequently to evaluate the treatment effects in groups of patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

March 03, 2015; NCT03152617 .

Comparison between data-driven clusters and models based on clinical features to predict outcomes in type 2 diabetes: nationwide observational study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Research using data-driven cluster analysis has proposed five novel subgroups of diabetes based on six measured variables in individuals with newly diagnosed diabetes. Our aim was (1) to validate the existence of differing clusters within type 2 diabetes, and (2) to compare the cluster method with an alternative strategy based on traditional methods to predict diabetes outcomes.

METHODS

We used data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register and included 114,231 individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes. k-means clustering was used to identify clusters based on nine continuous variables (age at diagnosis, HbA_1c, BMI, systolic and diastolic BP, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol, triacylglycerol and eGFR). The elbow method was used to determine the optimal number of clusters and Cox regression models were used to evaluate mortality risk and risk of CVD events. The prediction models were compared using concordance statistics.

RESULTS

The elbow plot, with values of k ranging from 1 to 10, showed a smooth curve without any clear cut-off points, making the optimal value of k unclear. The appearance of the plot was very similar to the elbow plot made from a simulated dataset consisting only of one cluster. In prediction models for mortality, concordance was 0.63 (95% CI 0.63, 0.64) for two clusters, 0.66 (95% CI 0.65, 0.66) for four clusters, 0.77 (95% CI 0.76, 0.77) for the ordinary Cox model and 0.78 (95% CI 0.77, 0.78) for the Cox model with smoothing splines. In prediction models for CVD events, the concordance was 0.64 (95% CI 0.63, 0.65) for two clusters, 0.66 (95% CI 0.65, 0.67) for four clusters, 0.77 (95% CI 0.77, 0.78) for the ordinary Cox model and 0.78 (95% CI 0.77, 0.78) for the Cox model with splines for all variables.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This nationwide observational study found no evidence supporting the existence of a specific number of distinct clusters within type 2 diabetes. The results from this study suggest that a prediction model approach using simple clinical features to predict risk of diabetes complications would be more useful than a cluster sub-stratification.

Impact of Socioeconomic Factors and Gender on Refill Adherence and Persistence to Lipid-Lowering Therapy in Type 1 Diabetes

INTRODUCTION

Lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D). However, socioeconomic factors and gender may have an impact on the adherence to and non-persistence with LLT.

METHODS

This was a nationwide register-based cohort study that included 6192 individuals with T1D aged ≥ 18 years who were registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register and had initiated novel use of LLT. Information on socioeconomic parameters (source: Statistics Sweden) and comorbidity (source: National Patient Register) was collected. The individuals were followed for 36 months, and adherence to LLT was analyzed according to age, socioeconomics and gender. The medication possession ratio (MPR; categorized into ≤ 80% and > 80%) and non-persistence (discontinuation) with medication was calculated after 18 and 36 months.

RESULTS

Individuals older than 53 years were more adherent to LLT (MPR > 80%) than those younger than 36 years (odds ratio [(OR] 1.30, p < 0.0001) at 36 months. Women were more adherent and less prone to discontinue LLT at 18 months (OR 1.05, p = 0.0005 and OR 0.95, p = 0.0004, respectively), but not at 36 months. Divorced individuals were less adherent than married ones (OR 0.93, p = 0.0005) and discontinued LLT more often than the latter (OR 1.06, p = 0.003). Education had no impact on adherence, but individuals with higher incomes discontinued LLT less frequently than those with lower incomes. Individuals with a country of origin other than Sweden discontinued LLT more often.

CONCLUSION

Lower adherence to LLT in individuals with T1D was associated with male gender, younger age, marital status and country of birth. These factors should be considered when evaluating adherence to LLT in clinical practice, with the aim to help patients achieve full cardioprotective treatment.