SCORE2-Diabetes: 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation in type 2 diabetes in Europe

AIMS

To develop and validate a recalibrated prediction model (SCORE2-Diabetes) to estimate the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 2 diabetes in Europe.

METHODS AND RESULTS

SCORE2-Diabetes was developed by extending SCORE2 algorithms using individual-participant data from four large-scale datasets comprising 229 460 participants (43 706 CVD events) with type 2 diabetes and without previous CVD. Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models were used including conventional risk factors (i.e. age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total, and HDL-cholesterol), as well as diabetes-related variables (i.e. age at diabetes diagnosis, glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c] and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]). Models were recalibrated to CVD incidence in four European risk regions. External validation included 217 036 further individuals (38 602 CVD events), and showed good discrimination, and improvement over SCORE2 (C-index change from 0.009 to 0.031). Regional calibration was satisfactory. SCORE2-Diabetes risk predictions varied several-fold, depending on individuals' levels of diabetes-related factors. For example, in the moderate-risk region, the estimated 10-year CVD risk was 11% for a 60-year-old man, non-smoker, with type 2 diabetes, average conventional risk factors, HbA1c of 50 mmol/mol, eGFR of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 60 years. By contrast, the estimated risk was 17% in a similar man, with HbA1c of 70 mmol/mol, eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 50 years. For a woman with the same characteristics, the risk was 8% and 13%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

SCORE2-Diabetes, a new algorithm developed, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of CVD in individuals with type 2 diabetes, enhances identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

Cardiovascular risk and lifetime benefit from preventive treatment in type 2 diabetes: A post hoc analysis of the CAPTURE study

AIM

To assess the potential gain in the number of life-years free of a (recurrent) cardiovascular disease (CVD) event with optimal cardiovascular risk management (CVRM) and initiation of glucose-lowering agents with proven cardiovascular benefit in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

9,416 individuals with T2D from the CAPTURE study, a non-interventional, cross-sectional, multinational study, were included. The diabetes lifetime-perspective prediction model was used for calculating individual 10-year and lifetime CVD risk. The distribution of preventive medication use was assessed according to predicted CVD risk and stratified for history of CVD. For the estimation of absolute individual benefit from lifelong preventive treatment, including optimal CVRM and the addition of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) and sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is), the model was combined with treatment effects from current evidence.

RESULTS

GLP-1 RA or SGLT-2i use did not greatly differ between patients with and without CVD history, while use of blood pressure-lowering medication, statins and aspirin was more frequent in patients with CVD. Mean (standard deviation [SD]) lifetime benefit from optimal CVRM was 3.9 (3.0) and 1.3 (1.9) years in patients with and without established CVD, respectively. Further addition of a GLP-1 RA and an SGLT-2i in patients with CVD gave an added mean (SD) lifetime benefit of 1.2 (0.6) years.

CONCLUSIONS

Life-years gained free of (recurrent) CVD by optimal CVRM and the addition of a GLP-1 RA or aSGLT-2i is dependent on baseline CVD status. These results aid individualizing prevention and promote shared decision-making in patients with T2D.

Estimating individual lifetime risk of incident cardiovascular events in adults with Type 2 diabetes: an update and geographical calibration of the DIAbetes Lifetime perspective model (DIAL2)

AIMS

The 2021 European Society of Cardiology cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend the use of (lifetime) risk prediction models to aid decisions regarding intensified preventive treatment options in adults with Type 2 diabetes, e.g. the DIAbetes Lifetime perspective model (DIAL model). The aim of this study was to update the DIAL model using contemporary and representative registry data (DIAL2) and to systematically calibrate the model for use in other European countries.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The DIAL2 model was derived in 467 856 people with Type 2 diabetes without a history of CVD from the Swedish National Diabetes Register, with a median follow-up of 7.3 years (interquartile range: 4.0-10.6 years) and comprising 63 824 CVD (including fatal CVD, non-fatal stroke and non-fatal myocardial infarction) events and 66 048 non-CVD mortality events. The model was systematically recalibrated to Europe's low- and moderate-risk regions using contemporary incidence data and mean risk factor distributions. The recalibrated DIAL2 model was externally validated in 218 267 individuals with Type 2 diabetes from the Scottish Care Information-Diabetes (SCID) and Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). In these individuals, 43 074 CVD events and 27 115 non-CVD fatal events were observed. The DIAL2 model discriminated well, with C-indices of 0.732 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.726-0.739] in CPRD and 0.700 (95% CI 0.691-0.709) in SCID.

CONCLUSION

The recalibrated DIAL2 model provides a useful tool for the prediction of CVD-free life expectancy and lifetime CVD risk for people with Type 2 diabetes without previous CVD in the European low- and moderate-risk regions. These long-term individualized measures of CVD risk are well suited for shared decision-making in clinical practice as recommended by the 2021 CVD ESC prevention guidelines.

Development and Validation of a Lifetime Risk Model for Kidney Failure and Treatment Benefit in Type 2 Diabetes: 10-Year and Lifetime Risk Prediction Models

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Individuals with type 2 diabetes are at a higher risk of developing kidney failure. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a decision support tool for estimating 10-year and lifetime risks of kidney failure in individuals with type 2 diabetes as well as estimating individual treatment effects of preventive medication.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

The prediction algorithm was developed in 707,077 individuals with prevalent and incident type 2 diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Register for 2002-2019. Two Cox proportional regression functions for kidney failure (first occurrence of kidney transplantation, long-term dialysis, or persistent eGFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m2) and all-cause mortality as respective end points were developed using routinely available predictors. These functions were combined into life tables to calculate the predicted survival without kidney failure while using all-cause mortality as the competing outcome. The model was externally validated in 256,265 individuals with incident type 2 diabetes from the Scottish Care Information Diabetes database between 2004 and 2019.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 6.8 years (interquartile range, 3.2-10.6), 8004 (1%) individuals with type 2 diabetes in the Swedish National Diabetes Register cohort developed kidney failure, and 202,078 (29%) died. The model performed well, with c statistics for kidney failure of 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.88 to 0.90) for internal validation and 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.76) for external validation. Calibration plots showed good agreement in observed versus predicted 10-year risk of kidney failure for both internal and external validation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study derived and externally validated a prediction tool for estimating 10-year and lifetime risks of kidney failure as well as life years free of kidney failure gained with preventive treatment in individuals with type 2 diabetes using easily available clinical predictors.

PODCAST

This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2022_11_04_CJN05020422.mp3.

Lifestyle changes and kidney function: A 10-year follow-up study in patients with manifest cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) are at higher risk of kidney function decline. The current study aimed to examine the association of lifestyle changes with kidney function decline in patients with manifest CVD.

METHODS

A total of 2260 patients from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease cohort with manifest CVD who returned for a follow-up visit after a median of 9.9 years were included. The relation between change in lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity and obesity) and change in kidney function (eGFR and uACR) was assessed using linear regression models.

RESULTS

An increase in body mass index (β -2.81; 95% CI -3.98; -1.63 per 5 kg/m² ) and for men also an increase in waist circumference (β -0.87; 95% CI -1.28; -0.47 per 5 cm) were significantly associated with a steeper decline in eGFR over 10 years. Continuing smoking (β -2.44, 95% CI -4.43; -0.45) and recent smoking cessation during follow-up (β -3.27; 95% CI -5.20; -1.34) were both associated with a steeper eGFR decline compared to patients who remained as non- or previous smokers from baseline. No significant association was observed between physical exercise or alcohol consumption and kidney function decline. No significant relation between any lifestyle factor and change in uACR was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with CVD, continuing smoking, recent smoking cessation and an increase in obesity markers were related to a steeper kidney function decline. Although no definite conclusions from this study can be drawn, the results support the importance of encouraging weight loss and smoking cessation in high-risk patients as a means of slowing down kidney function decline.

Estimated Life-Years Gained Free of New or Recurrent Major Cardiovascular Events With the Addition of Semaglutide to Standard of Care in People With Type 2 Diabetes and High Cardiovascular Risk

OBJECTIVE

Semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist, reduced major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a post hoc analysis of pooled data from Trial to Evaluate Cardiovascular and Other Long-term Outcomes with Semaglutide in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes (SUSTAIN) 6 and Peptide Innovation for Early Diabetes Treatment (PIONEER) 6. We estimated the benefit of adding semaglutide to standard of care (SoC) on life-years free of new/recurrent CVD events in people with T2D at high risk of CVD.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The Diabetes Lifetime-perspective prediction (DIAL) competing risk-adjusted lifetime CVD risk model for people with T2D was developed previously. Baseline characteristics of the pooled cohort from SUSTAIN 6 and PIONEER 6 (POOLED cohort) (N = 6,480) were used to estimate individual life expectancy free of CVD for patients in the POOLED cohort. The hazard ratio of MACE from adding semaglutide to SoC was derived from the POOLED cohort (hazard ratio [HR] 0.76 [95% CI 0.62-0.92]) and combined with an individual's risk to estimate their CVD benefit.

RESULTS

Adding semaglutide to SoC was associated with a wide distribution in life-years free of CVD gained, with a mean increase of 1.7 (95% CI 0.5-2.9) life-years. Estimated life-years free of CVD gained with semaglutide was dependent on baseline risk (life-years free of CVD gained in individuals with established CVD vs. those with cardiovascular risk factors only: 2.0 vs. 0.2) and age at treatment initiation.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding semaglutide to SoC was associated with a gain in life-years free of CVD events that was dependent on baseline CVD risk and age at treatment initiation. This study helps contextualize the results of semaglutide clinical trials.

End-stage kidney disease in patients with clinically manifest vascular disease; incidence and risk factors: results from the UCC-SMART cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) are at increased risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Insights into the incidence and role of modifiable risk factors for end-stage kidney disease may provide means for prevention in patients with cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

We included 8402 patients with stable cardiovascular disease. Incidence rates (IRs) for end-stage kidney disease were determined stratified according to vascular disease location. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the risk of end-stage kidney disease for the different determinants.

RESULTS

Sixty-five events were observed with a median follow-up of 8.6 years. The overall incidence rate of end-stage kidney disease was 0.9/1000 person-years. Patients with polyvascular disease had the highest incidence rate (1.8/1000 person-years). Smoking (Hazard ratio (HR) 1.87; 95% CI 1.10-3.19), type 2 diabetes (HR 1.81; 95% CI 1.05-3.14), higher systolic blood pressure (HR 1.37; 95% CI 1.24-1.52/10 mmHg), lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (HR 2.86; 95% CI 2.44-3.23/10 mL/min/1.73 m²) and higher urine albumin/creatinine ratio (uACR) (HR 1.19; 95% CI 1.15-1.23/10 mg/mmol) were independently associated with elevated risk of end-stage kidney disease. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, non-HDL-cholesterol and exercise were not independently associated with risk of end-stage kidney disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Incidence of end-stage kidney disease in patients with cardiovascular disease varies according to vascular disease location. Several modifiable risk factors for end-stage kidney disease were identified in patients with cardiovascular disease. These findings highlight the potential of risk factor management in patients with manifest cardiovascular disease.

[HIV may be cured]

The symposium IAS Towards an HIV Cure was held in Melbourne, Australia, in July 2014. There are several challenges regarding an HIV cure, among these the reservoir of latently infected CD4+ T cells which are hidden from the immune system. A new promising approach towards an HIV cure is the "shock and kill" strategy. Here, the latently infected cells are shocked to express HIV on the surface, and afterwards the shocked cells can be eradicated by apoptosis or destruction by the immune system. In this paper the most important results from the symposium are presented.