Cryptic or mystic? Glacial tree refugia in northern Europe

No borders during the post-glacial assembly of European bryophytes

Climatic fluctuations during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a profound influence on biodiversity patterns, but their impact on bryophytes, the second most diverse group of land plants, has been poorly documented. Approximate Bayesian computations based on coalescent simulations showed that the post-glacial assembly of European bryophytes involves a complex history from multiple sources. The contribution of allochthonous migrants was 95-100% of expanding populations in about half of the 15 investigated species, which is consistent with the globally balanced genetic diversities and extremely low divergence observed among biogeographical regions. Such a substantial contribution of allochthonous migrants in the post-glacial assembly of Europe is unparalleled in other plants and animals. The limited role of northern micro-refugia, which was unexpected based on bryophyte life-history traits, and of southern refugia, is consistent with recent palaeontological evidence that LGM climates in Eurasia were much colder and drier than what palaeoclimatic models predict.

Evolutionary History of Rhus chinensis (Anacardiaceae) From the Temperate and Subtropical Zones of China Based on cpDNA and Nuclear DNA Sequences and Ecological Niche Model

To explore the origin and evolution of local flora and vegetation, we examined the evolutionary history of Rhus chinensis, which is widely distributed in China’s temperate and subtropical zones, by sequencing three maternally inherited chloroplast DNAs (cpDNA: trnL-trnF, psbA-trnH, and rbcL) and the biparentally inherited nuclear DNA (nuDNA: LEAFY) from 19 natural populations of R. chinensis as well as the ecological niche modeling. In all, 23 chloroplast haplotypes (M1–M23) and 15 nuclear alleles (N1–N15) were detected. The estimation of divergence time showed that the most recent common ancestor dated at 4.2 ± 2.5 million years ago (Mya) from cpDNA, and the initial divergence of genotypes occurred at 4.8 ± 3.6 Mya for the nuDNA. Meanwhile, the multimodality mismatch distribution curves and positive Tajima’s D values indicated that R. chinensis did not experience population expansion after the last glacial maximum. Besides, our study was also consistent with the hypothesis that most refugia in the temperate and subtropical zones of China were in situ during the glaciation.

Shallow Genetic Structure among the European Populations of the Six-Toothed Bark Beetle Ips sexdentatus (Coleoptera, Curculionidae, Scolytinae)

The six-toothed bark beetle, Ips sexdentatus, is one of the most abundant scolytid species of the central and southern European countries. It mostly feeds on Pinus sp., whereas during population outbreaks it can also attack Picea sp. In spite of its broad distribution, its phylogeography has never been studied before. To do that, we employed an mtDNA marker on 489 individuals that covered most of its native range in Europe. Geographic distribution of the 86 haplotypes showed that at least three glacial refugia have played a significant role in shaping the currently observed pattern of genetic divergence in Europe, without excluding the contribution of minor refugial areas that acted in a similar manner. The revealed shallow structure can be considered an artifact of factors that reduced intraspecific diversity, at the same time favoring gene flow. As such, biological traits of the species itself (flying ability and host preference) and even human-mediated transport of wood seem to be the most prevailing and probable reasons that gave rise to the observed pattern.

Contrasting evolutionary origins of two mountain endemics: Saxifraga wahlenbergii (Western Carpathians) and S. styriaca (Eastern Alps)

BACKGROUND

The Carpathians and the Alps are the largest mountain ranges of the European Alpine System and important centres of endemism. Among the distinctive endemic species of this area is Saxifraga wahlenbergii, a Western Carpathians member of the speciose genus Saxifraga. It was frequently considered a taxonomically isolated Tertiary palaeopolyploid and palaeoendemic, for which the closest relatives could not yet be traced. A recently described narrow endemic of the Eastern Alps, S. styriaca, was hypothesized to be closely related to S. wahlenbergii based on shared presence of peculiar glandular hairs. To elucidate the origin and phylogenetic relationships of both species we studied nuclear and plastid DNA markers based on multiple accessions and analysed the data in a wide taxonomic context. We applied Sanger sequencing, followed by targeted next-generation sequencing (NGS) for a refined analysis of nrITS variants to detect signatures of ancient hybridization. The ITS data were used to estimate divergence times of different lineages using a relaxed molecular clock.

RESULTS

We demonstrate divergent evolutionary histories for the two mountain endemics. For S. wahlenbergii we revealed a complicated hybrid origin. Its maternal parent belongs to a Western Eurasian lineage of high mountain taxa grouped in subsect. Androsaceae and is most likely the widespread S. androsacea. The putative second parent was most likely S. adscendens, which belongs to the distantly related subsect. Tridactylites. While Sanger sequencing of nrITS only showed S. adscendens-related variants in S. wahlenbergii, our NGS screening revealed presence of sequences from both lineages with clear predominance of the paternal over the maternal lineage.

CONCLUSIONS

Saxifraga styriaca was unambiguously assigned to subsect. Androsaceae and is not the sister taxon of S. wahlenbergii. Accordingly, the similarity of the glandular hairs observed in both taxa rests on parallelism and both species do not constitute an example of a close evolutionary link between the floras of the Western Carpathians and Eastern Alps. With the origin of its paternal, S. adscendens-like ITS DNA estimated to ca. 4.7 Ma, S. wahlenbergii is not a relict of the mid-Tertiary climate optimum. Its hybrid origin is much younger and most likely took place in the Pleistocene.

Red deer in Iberia: Molecular ecological studies in a southern refugium and inferences on European postglacial colonization history

The red deer (Cervus elaphus) is a widespread wild ungulate in Europe that has suffered strong anthropogenic impacts over their distribution during the last centuries, but also at the present time, due its economic importance as a game species. Here we focus on the evolutionary history of the red deer in Iberia, one of the three main southern refugial areas for temperate species in Europe, and addressed the hypothesis of a cryptic refugia at higher latitudes during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). A total of 911 individuals were sampled, genotyped for 34 microsatellites specifically developed for red deer and sequenced for a fragment of 670 bp of the mitochondrial (mtDNA) D-loop. The results were combined with published mtDNA sequences, and integrated with species distribution models and historical European paleo-distribution data, in order to further examine the alternative glacial refugial models and the influence of cryptic refugia on European postglacial colonization history. Clear genetic differentiation between Iberian and European contemporary populations was observed at nuclear and mtDNA levels, despite the mtDNA haplotypes central to the phylogenetic network are present across western Europe (including Iberia) suggesting a panmictic population in the past. Species distribution models, fossil records and genetic data support a timing of divergence between Iberian and European populations that overlap with the LGM. A notable population structure was also found within the Iberian Peninsula, although several populations displayed high levels of admixture as a consequence of recent red deer translocations. Five D-loop sub-lineages were found in Iberia that belong to the Western European mtDNA lineage, while there were four main clusters based on analysis of nuclear markers. Regarding glacial refugial models, our findings provide detailed support for the hypothesis that red deer may have persisted in cryptic northern refugia in western Europe during the LGM, most likely in southern France, southern Ireland, or in a region between them (continental shelf), and these regions were the source of individuals during the European re-colonization. This evidence heightens the importance of conserving the high mitochondrial and nuclear diversity currently observed in Iberian populations.

Identifying long-term stable refugia for relict plant species in East Asia

Today East Asia harbors many “relict” plant species whose ranges were much larger during the Paleogene-Neogene and earlier. The ecological and climatic conditions suitable for these relict species have not been identified. Here, we map the abundance and distribution patterns of relict species, showing high abundance in the humid subtropical/warm-temperate forest regions. We further use Ecological Niche Modeling to show that these patterns align with maps of climate refugia, and we predict species’ chances of persistence given the future climatic changes expected for East Asia. By 2070, potentially suitable areas with high richness of relict species will decrease, although the areas as a whole will probably expand. We identify areas in southwestern China and northern Vietnam as long-term climatically stable refugia likely to preserve ancient lineages, highlighting areas that could be prioritized for conservation of such species.

East Asia contains “relict” plant species that persist under narrow climatic conditions after once having wider distributions. Here, using distribution records coupled with ecological niche models, the authors identify long-term stable refugia possessing past, current and future climatic suitability favoring ancient plant lineages.

Hybridization and polyploidization within the Chenopodium album aggregate analysed by means of cytological and molecular markers

Hybridization and polyploidization represent an important speciation mechanism in the diploid-polyploid complex of the Chenopodium album aggregate. In the present study we successfully reconstructed the evolutionary histories of the majority of Eurasian representatives of the C. album aggregate, resulting in the most comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of this taxonomically intricate group of species to date. We applied a combination of classical karyology for precise chromosome number determination, genomic in-situ hybridization for the determination of genomic composition, flow cytometry for the estimation of genome size and sequencing of plastid (cpDNA) and nuclear (ribosomal internal transcribed spacer - ITS and the introns of the FLOWERING LOCUS T LIKE genes - FTL) markers for a phylogenetic reconstruction and the identification of parental genomes in polyploid taxa. The FTL markers identified eight well supported evolutionary lineages. Five of them include at least one diploid species, and the remaining three comprise solely the subgenomes of polyploids that probably represent extinct or unknown diploid taxa. The existence of eight basic diploid lineages explains the origin of seven Eurasian polyploid groups and brings evidence of a nearly unlimited number of subgenomic combinations. The supposed promiscuity generated new species wherever different diploid lineages met each other and gave rise to tetraploid species or whenever they met other tetraploid species to produce hexaploid species throughout their evolutionary history. Finally, we unravelled a surprisingly simple scheme of polyploid species formation within the C. album aggregate. We determined seven groups of polyploid species differing in their origin in either Eurasia or Africa and convincingly demonstrated that (1) all Chenopodium polyploid species under study are of allopolyploid origin, (2) there are eight major monophyletic evolutionary lineages represented by extant or extinct/unknown diploid taxa, (3) those monophyletic lineages represent individual subgenomes, (4) hybridization among the lineages created seven subgenomic combinations of polyploid taxa, (5) taxa represented by particular subgenome combinations were further subjected to diversification, and (6) the majority of species are relatively young, not exceeding the age of the Quaternary period.

Approximate Bayesian computation analysis of EST-associated microsatellites indicates that the broadleaved evergreen tree Castanopsis sieboldii survived the Last Glacial Maximum in multiple refugia in Japan

Climatic changes have played major roles in plants' evolutionary history. Glacial oscillations have been particularly important, but some of their effects on plants' populations are poorly understood, including the numbers and locations of refugia in Asian warm temperate zones. In the present study, we investigated the demographic history of the broadleaved evergreen tree species Castanopsis sieboldii (Fagaceae) during the last glacial period in Japan. We used approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) for model comparison and parameter estimation for the demographic modeling using 27 EST-associated microsatellites. We also performed the species distribution modeling (SDM). The results strongly support a demographic scenario that the Ryukyu Islands and the western parts in the main islands (Kyushu and western Shikoku) were derived from separate refugia and the eastern parts in the main islands and the Japan Sea groups were diverged from the western parts prior to the coldest stage of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Our data indicate that multiple refugia survived at least one in the Ryukyu Islands, and the other three regions of the western and eastern parts and around the Japan Sea of the main islands of Japan during the LGM. The SDM analysis also suggests the potential habitats under LGM climate conditions were mainly located along the Pacific Ocean side of the coastal region. Our ABC-based study helps efforts resolve the demographic history of a dominant species in warm temperate broadleaved forests during and after the last glacial period, which provides a basic model for future phylogeographical studies using this approach.

Invoking adaptation to decipher the genetic legacy of past climate change

Persistence of natural populations during periods of climate change is likely to depend on migration (range shifts) or adaptation. These responses were traditionally considered discrete processes and conceptually divided into the realms of ecology and evolution. In a milestone paper, Davis and Shaw (2001) Science 292:673 argued that the interplay of adaptation and migration was central to biotic responses to Quaternary climate, but since then there has been no synthesis of efforts made to set up this research program. Here we review some of the salient findings from molecular genetic studies assessing ecological and evolutionary responses to Quaternary climate change. These studies have revolutionized our understanding of population processes associated with past species migration. However, knowledge remains limited about the role of natural selection for local adaptation of populations to Quaternary environmental fluctuations and associated range shifts, and for the footprints this might have left on extant populations. Next-generation sequencing technologies, high-resolution paleoclimate analyses, and advances in population genetic theory offer an unprecedented opportunity to test hypotheses about adaptation through time. Recent population genomics studies have greatly improved our understanding of the role of contemporary adaptation to local environments in shaping spatial patterns of genetic diversity across modern-day landscapes. Advances in this burgeoning field provide important conceptual and methodological bases to decipher the historical role of natural selection and assess adaptation to past environmental variation. We suggest that a process called "temporal conditional neutrality" has taken place: some alleles favored in glacial environments become selectively neutral in modern-day conditions, whereas some alleles that had been neutral during glacial periods become under selection in modern environments. Building on this view, we present a new integrative framework for addressing the interplay of demographic and adaptive evolutionary responses to Quaternary climate dynamics, the research agenda initially envisioned by Davis and Shaw (2001) Science 292:673.

Keep your feet warm? A cryptic refugium of trees linked to a geothermal spring in an ocean of glaciers

Up to now, the most widely accepted idea of the periglacial environment is that of treeless ecosystems such as the arctic or the alpine tundra, also called the tabula rasa paradigm. However, several palaeoecological studies have recently challenged this idea, that is, treeless environments in periglacial areas where all organisms would have been exterminated near the glacier formed during the Last Glacial Maximum, notably in the Scandinavian mountains. In the Alps, the issue of glacial refugia of trees remains unanswered. Advances in glacier reconstructions show that ice domes did not cover all upper massifs, but glaciers filled valleys. Here, we used fossils of plant and malacofauna from a travertine formation located in a high mountain region to demonstrate that trees (Pinus, Betula) grew with grasses during the Lateglacial-Holocene transition, while the glacier fronts were 200-300 m lower. The geothermal travertine started to accumulate more than 14,500 years ago, but became progressively more meteogene about 11,500 years ago due to a change in groundwater circulation. With trees, land snails (gastropods) associated to woody or open habitats and aquatic mollusc were also present at the onset of the current interglacial, namely the Holocene. The geothermal spring, due to warm water and soil, probably favoured woody glacial ecosystems. This new finding of early tree growth, combined with other scattered proofs of the tree presence before 11,000 years ago in the western Alps, changes our view of the tree distribution in periglacial environments, supporting the notion of tree refugia on nunataks in an ocean of glaciers. Therefore, the tabula rasa paradigm must be revisited because it has important consequences on the global changes, including postglacial plant migrations and biogeochemical cycles.

Strong population bottleneck and repeated demographic expansions of Populus adenopoda (Salicaceae) in subtropical China

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Glacial refugia and inter-/postglacial recolonization routes during the Quaternary of tree species in Europe and North America are well understood, but far less is known about those of tree species in subtropical eastern Asia. Thus, we have examined the phylogeographic history of Populus adenopoda (Salicaceae), one of the few poplars that naturally occur in this subtropical area.

METHODS

Genetic variations across the range of the species in subtropical China were surveyed using ten nuclear microsatellite loci and four chloroplast fragments (matK, trnG-psbK, psbK-psbI and ndhC-trnV). Coalescent-based analyses were used to test demographic and migration hypotheses. In addition, species distribution models (SDMs) were constructed to infer past, present and future potential distributions of the species.

KEY RESULTS

Thirteen chloroplast haplotypes were detected, and haplotype-rich populations were found in central and southern parts of the species' range. STRUCTURE analyses of nuclear microsatellite loci suggest obvious lineage admixture, especially in peripheral and northern populations. DIYABC analysis suggests that the species might have experienced two independent rounds of demographic expansions and a strong bottleneck in the late Quaternary. SDMs indicate that the species' range contracted during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and contracted northward but expanded eastward during the Last Interglacial (LIG).

CONCLUSIONS

Chloroplast data and SDMs suggest that P. adenopoda might have survived in multiple glacial refugia in central and southern parts of its range during the LGM. Populations of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in the southern part have high chloroplast DNA diversity, but may have contributed little to the postglacial recolonization of northern and eastern parts. The three major demographic events inferred by DIYABC coincide with the initiation of the LIG, start of the LGM and end of the LGM, respectively. The species may have experienced multiple rounds of range contraction during glacial periods and range expansion during interglacial periods. Our study corroborates the importance of combining multiple lines of evidence when reconstructing Quaternary population evolutionary histories.

Geographic range velocity and its association with phylogeny and life history traits in North American woody plants

The geographic ranges of taxa change in response to environmental conditions. Yet whether rates of range movement (biotic velocities) are phylogenetically conserved is not well known. Phylogenetic conservatism of biotic velocities could reflect similarities among related lineages in climatic tolerances and dispersal-associated traits. We assess whether late Quaternary biotic velocities were phylogenetically conserved and whether they correlate with climatic tolerances and dispersal-associated traits. We used phylogenetic regression and nonparametric correlation to evaluate associations between biotic velocities, dispersal-associated traits, and climatic tolerances for 28 woody plant genera and subgenera in North America. The velocities with which woody plant taxa shifted their core geographic range limits were positively correlated from time step to time step between 16 and 7 ka. The strength of this correlation weakened after 7 ka as the pace of climate change slowed. Dispersal-associated traits and climatic tolerances were not associated with biotic velocities. Although the biotic velocities of some genera were consistently fast and others consistently slow, biotic velocities were not phylogenetically conserved. The rapid late Quaternary range shifts of plants lacking traits that facilitate frequent long-distance dispersal has long been noted (i.e., Reid's Paradox). Our results are consistent with this paradox and show that it remains robust when phylogenetic information is taken into account. The lack of association between biotic velocities, dispersal-associated traits, and climatic tolerances may reflect several, nonmutually exclusive processes, including rare long-distance dispersal, biotic interactions, and cryptic refugia. Because late Quaternary biotic velocities were decoupled from dispersal-associated traits, trait data for genera and subgenera cannot be used to predict longer-term (millennial-scale) floristic responses to climate change.

How Do Cold-Adapted Plants Respond to Climatic Cycles? Interglacial Expansion Explains Current Distribution and Genomic Diversity in Primula farinosa L

Understanding the effects of past climatic fluctuations on the distribution and population-size dynamics of cold-adapted species is essential for predicting their responses to ongoing global climate change. In spite of the heterogeneity of cold-adapted species, two main contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain their responses to Late Quaternary glacial cycles, namely, the interglacial contraction versus the interglacial expansion hypotheses. Here, we use the cold-adapted plant Primula farinosa to test two demographic models under each of the two alternative hypotheses and a fifth, null model. We first approximate the time and extent of demographic contractions and expansions during the Late Quaternary by projecting species distribution models across the last 72 ka. We also generate genome-wide sequence data using a Reduced Representation Library approach to reconstruct the spatial structure, genetic diversity, and phylogenetic relationships of lineages within P. farinosa. Finally, by integrating the results of climatic and genomic analyses in an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework, we propose the most likely model for the extent and direction of population-size changes in $P$. farinosa through the Late Quaternary. Our results support the interglacial expansion of $P$. farinosa, differing from the prevailing paradigm that the observed distribution of cold-adapted species currently fragmented in high altitude and latitude regions reflects the consequences of postglacial contraction processes.

Extra-Mediterranean glacial refuges in barred and common grass snakes (Natrix helvetica, N. natrix)

Extra-Mediterranean glacial refugia of thermophilic biota, in particular in northern latitudes, are controversial. In the present study we provide genetic evidence for extra-Mediterranean refugia in two species of grass snake. The refuge of a widely distributed western European lineage of the barred grass snake (Natrix helvetica) was most likely located in southern France, outside the classical refuges in the southern European peninsulas. One genetic lineage of the common grass snake (N. natrix), distributed in Scandinavia, Central Europe and the Balkan Peninsula, had two distinct glacial refuges. We show that one was located in the southern Balkan Peninsula. However, Central Europe and Scandinavia were not colonized from there, but from a second refuge in Central Europe. This refuge was located in between the northern ice sheet and the Alpine glaciers of the last glaciation and most likely in a permafrost region. Another co-distributed genetic lineage of N. natrix, now massively hybridizing with the aforementioned lineage, survived the last glaciation in a structured refuge in the southern Balkan Peninsula, according to the idea of 'refugia-within-refugia'. It reached Central Europe only very recently. This study reports for the first time the glacial survival of a thermophilic egg-laying reptile species in Central Europe.

Unique postglacial evolution of the hornbeam (Carpinus betulus L.) in the Carpathians and the Balkan Peninsula revealed by chloroplast DNA

The Balkan Peninsula is one of the largest and most important European glacial refugia. However, the evolutionary history and phylogeographic pattern of temperate tree species that survived in the Balkans glacial refugia and their contribution to the genetic structure of the current population in the Carpathian Mountains remains poorly understood. Using polymerase chain reaction - restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP), and extensive population sampling, we explored the phylogeographic pattern of Carpinus betulus in both the Balkan Peninsula and the Carpathian region. We aimed to determine the locations of potential glacial refugia, in order to delineate post-glacial colonization routes, and also to test if northern cryptic refugia had persisted during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Our results provide strong support for the existence of multiple refugia similar to the 'refugia-within-refugia' scenario, which would suggest that Carpinus betulus has experienced a complex evolutionary history. In agreement with pollen data, our findings corroborate with previous hypotheses suggesting that hornbeam has a distinct postglacial evolution in the southeast of Europe (Carpathians and Balkan Peninsula) compared with that in Western Europe. Three postglacial re-colonization routes, from three distinct effective glacial refugia: (1) the Dinaric Alps; (2) the Pirin and Rhodope Mountains and (3) the Strandzha Mountains, were detected within the Balkan Peninsula. The pattern of cpDNA haplotypes distribution across the Ukrainian Carpathians revealed a "suture zone", which is a consequence of contact due to postglacial re-colonization between hornbeam populations originating from all three effective glacial refugia. The peculiar haplotype geographical structure found in C. betulus and the identified multiple glacial refugia in the Balkans may have direct consequences in the management and conservation of hornbeam forest genetic resources.

Fire ecology of a tree glacial refugium on a nunatak with a view on Alpine glaciers

In paleoecology, the function of biomass as a fire driver has become a focus of attention in cold ecosystems, and concerns have been raised about climate in this context. Little is known about the fire frequency and fire-plant relationships during glaciation when woodlands were limited and the climate was cold. Fire history and tree biomass were reconstructed from sedimentary charcoal and macroremains, respectively, archived in lake sediments from the western Alps. Two nunataks were investigated, both with lacustrine sediments covering the last 21 000 yr at least. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Lateglacial, fires occurred only on the nunatak sheltering woody plants. Cembra pine (Pinus cembra) and larch (Larix decidua) survived above glaciers during the LGM, thus evidencing a biological refugium and supporting the nunatak theory. We highlighted a long-term relationship between fires and dominant trees over the last 21 000 yr, where fire frequencies track the global climate and the local changes in tree biomass. Glacial climate (dry, cold) does not rule out fires. Fuel load and composition were significant fire drivers, with cembra pine dominating during colder periods with rare fires, and larch during the warmer Holocene with frequent fires. These findings increase knowledge of fire ecology in cold environments, and open perspectives in tree population genetics by considering new areas of tree glacial refugia in Europe.

Genome-Wide Analysis of Colonization History and Concomitant Selection in Arabidopsis lyrata

The high climatic variability in the past hundred thousand years has affected the demographic and adaptive processes in many species, especially in boreal and temperate regions undergoing glacial cycles. This has also influenced the patterns of genome-wide nucleotide variation, but the details of these effects are largely unknown. Here we study the patterns of genome-wide variation to infer colonization history and patterns of selection of the perennial herb species Arabidopsis lyrata, in locally adapted populations from different parts of its distribution range (Germany, UK, Norway, Sweden, and USA) representing different environmental conditions. Using site frequency spectra based demographic modeling, we found strong reduction in the effective population size of the species in general within the past 100,000 years, with more pronounced effects in the colonizing populations. We further found that the northwestern European A. lyrata populations (UK and Scandinavian) are more closely related to each other than with the Central European populations, and coalescent based population split modeling suggests that western European and Scandinavian populations became isolated relatively recently after the glacial retreat. We also highlighted loci showing evidence for local selection associated with the Scandinavian colonization. The results presented here give new insights into postglacial Scandinavian colonization history and its genome-wide effects.

Genetic and ecological insights into glacial refugia of walnut (Juglans regia L.)

The distribution and survival of trees during the last glacial maximum (LGM) has been of interest to paleoecologists, biogeographers, and geneticists. Ecological niche models that associate species occurrence and abundance with climatic variables are widely used to gain ecological and evolutionary insights and to predict species distributions over space and time. The present study deals with the glacial history of walnut to address questions related to past distributions through genetic analysis and ecological modeling of the present, LGM and Last Interglacial (LIG) periods. A maximum entropy method was used to project the current walnut distribution model on to the LGM (21–18 kyr BP) and LIG (130–116 kyr BP) climatic conditions. Model tuning identified the walnut data set filtered at 10 km spatial resolution as the best for modeling the current distribution and to hindcast past (LGM and LIG) distributions of walnut. The current distribution model predicted southern Caucasus, parts of West and Central Asia extending into South Asia encompassing northern Afghanistan, Pakistan, northwestern Himalayan region, and southwestern Tibet, as the favorable climatic niche matching the modern distribution of walnut. The hindcast of distributions suggested the occurrence of walnut during LGM was somewhat limited to southern latitudes from southern Caucasus, Central and South Asian regions extending into southwestern Tibet, northeastern India, Himalayan region of Sikkim and Bhutan, and southeastern China. Both CCSM and MIROC projections overlapped, except that MIROC projected a significant presence of walnut in the Balkan Peninsula during the LGM. In contrast, genetic analysis of the current walnut distribution suggested a much narrower area in northern Pakistan and the surrounding areas of Afghanistan, northwestern India, and southern Tajikistan as a plausible hotspot of diversity where walnut may have survived glaciations. Overall, the findings suggest that walnut perhaps survived the last glaciations in several refugia across a wide geographic area between 30° and 45° North latitude. However, humans probably played a significant role in the recent history and modern distribution of walnut.

Molecular markers provide evidence for a broad-fronted recolonisation of the widespread calcareous grassland species Sanguisorba minor from southern and cryptic northern refugia

Calcareous grasslands belong to the most species-rich and endangered habitats in Europe. However, little is known about the origin of the species typically occurring in these grasslands. In this study we analysed the glacial and post-glacial history of Sanguisorba minor, a typical plant species frequently occurring in calcareous grasslands. The study comprised 38 populations throughout the whole distribution range of the species across Europe. We used molecular markers (AFLP) and applied Bayesian cluster analysis as well as spatial principal components analysis (sPCA) to identify glacial refugia and post-glacial migration routes to Central Europe. Our study revealed significant differences in the level of genetic variation and the occurrence of rare fragments within populations of S. minor and a distinct separation of eastern and western lineages. The analyses uncovered traditional southern but also cryptic northern refugia and point towards a broad fronted post-glacial recolonisation. Based on these results we postulate that incomplete lineage sorting may have contributed to the detected pattern of genetic variation and that S. minor recolonised Central Europe post-glacially from Iberia and northern glacial refugia in France, Belgium or Germany. Our results highlight the importance of refugial areas for the conservation of intraspecific variation in calcareous grassland species.

Development of Chloroplast and Nuclear DNA Markers for Chinese Oaks (Quercus Subgenus Quercus) and Assessment of Their Utility as DNA Barcodes

Chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) is frequently used for species demography, evolution, and species discrimination of plants. However, the lack of efficient and universal markers often brings particular challenges for genetic studies across different plant groups. In this study, chloroplast genomes from two closely related species (Quercus rubra and Castanea mollissima) in Fagaceae were compared to explore universal cpDNA markers for the Chinese oak species in Quercus subgenus Quercus, a diverse species group without sufficient molecular differentiation. With the comparison, nine and 14 plastid markers were selected as barcoding and phylogeographic candidates for the Chinese oaks. Five (psbA-trnH, matK-trnK, ycf3-trnS, matK, and ycf1) of the nine plastid candidate barcodes, with the addition of newly designed ITS and a single-copy nuclear gene (SAP), were then tested on 35 Chinese oak species employing four different barcoding approaches (genetic distance-, BLAST-, character-, and tree-based methods). The four methods showed different species identification powers with character-based method performing the best. Of the seven barcodes tested, a barcoding gap was absent in all of them across the Chinese oaks, while ITS and psbA-trnH provided the highest species resolution (30.30%) with the character- and BLAST-based methods, respectively. The six-marker combination (psbA-trnH + matK-trnK + matK + ycf1 + ITS + SAP) showed the best species resolution (84.85%) using the character-based method for barcoding the Chinese oaks. The barcoding results provided additional implications for taxonomy of the Chinese oaks in subg. Quercus, basically identifying three major infrageneric clades of the Chinese oaks (corresponding to Groups Quercus, Cerris, and Ilex) referenced to previous phylogenetic classification of Quercus. While the morphology-based allocations proposed for the Chinese oaks in subg. Quercus were challenged. A low variation rate of the chloroplast genome, and complex speciation patterns involving incomplete lineage sorting, interspecific hybridization and introgression, possibly have negative impacts on the species assignment and phylogeny of oak species.

Epigean gammarids survived millions of years of severe climatic fluctuations in high latitude refugia throughout the Western Carpathians

Isolated glacial refugia have been documented in Central Europe for a number of taxa, but conclusive evidence for epigean aquatic species has remained elusive. Using molecular data (mitochondrial and nuclear markers), we compared the spatial patterns of lineage diversity of the widely distributed Gammarus fossarum species complex between two adjacent biogeographically and geomorphologically distinct Central European regions: the Bohemian Massif and the Western Carpathians. We investigated if the observed patterns of spatial diversity are more likely to stem from historical or present-day factors. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses revealed eight phylogenetically diverse lineages: two exhibiting local signatures of recent demographic expansion inhabit both regions, while the other six display a relict distributional pattern and are found only in the Western Carpathians. Molecular dating indicates that these lineages are old and probably diverged throughout the Miocene (7-18Ma). Furthermore, their distribution does not seem to be constrained by the present boundaries of river catchments or topography. The contrasting spatial patterns of diversity observed between the two regions thus more likely result from historical rather than contemporaneous or recent factors. Our results indicate that despite the high latitude and proximity to the Pleistocene ice sheets, the Western Carpathians functioned as long-term glacial refugia for permanent freshwater fauna, allowing the uninterrupted survival of ancient lineages through millions of years of drastic climatic fluctuations.

Species distribution modeling and molecular markers suggest longitudinal range shifts and cryptic northern refugia of the typical calcareous grassland species Hippocrepis comosa (horseshoe vetch)

Calcareous grasslands belong to the most diverse, endangered habitats in Europe, but there is still insufficient information about the origin of the plant species related to these grasslands. In order to illuminate this question, we chose for our study the representative grassland species Hippocrepis comosa (Horseshoe vetch). Based on species distribution modeling and molecular markers, we identified the glacial refugia and the postglacial migration routes of the species to Central Europe. We clearly demonstrate that H. comosa followed a latitudinal and due to its oceanity also a longitudinal gradient during the last glacial maximum (LGM), restricting the species to southern refugia situated on the Peninsulas of Iberia, the Balkans, and Italy during the last glaciation. However, we also found evidence for cryptic northern refugia in the UK, the Alps, and Central Germany. Both species distribution modeling and molecular markers underline that refugia of temperate, oceanic species such as H. comosa must not be exclusively located in southern but also in western of parts of Europe. The analysis showed a distinct separation of the southern refugia into a western cluster embracing Iberia and an eastern group including the Balkans and Italy, which determined the postglacial recolonization of Central Europe. At the end of the LGM, H. comosa seems to have expanded from the Iberian refugium, to Central and Northern Europe, including the UK, Belgium, and Germany.

Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China

This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5‒1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata.

Rethinking the history of common walnut (Juglans regia L.) in Europe: Its origins and human interactions

Common walnut (Juglans regia L) is an economically important species cultivated worldwide for its high-quality wood and nuts. It is generally accepted that after the last glaciation J. regia survived and grew in almost completely isolated stands in Asia, and that ancient humans dispersed walnuts across Asia and into new habitats via trade and cultural expansion. The history of walnut in Europe is a matter of debate, however. In this study, we estimated the genetic diversity and structure of 91 Eurasian walnut populations using 14 neutral microsatellites. By integrating fossil pollen, cultural, and historical data with population genetics, and approximate Bayesian analysis, we reconstructed the demographic history of walnut and its routes of dispersal across Europe. The genetic data confirmed the presence of walnut in glacial refugia in the Balkans and western Europe. We conclude that human-mediated admixture between Anatolian and Balkan walnut germplasm started in the Early Bronze Age, and between western Europe and the Balkans in eastern Europe during the Roman Empire. A population size expansion and subsequent decline in northeastern and western Europe was detected in the last five centuries. The actual distribution of walnut in Europe resulted from the combined effects of expansion/contraction from multiple refugia after the Last Glacial Maximum and its human exploitation over the last 5,000 years.

Biodiversity and Topographic Complexity: Modern and Geohistorical Perspectives

Topographically complex regions on land and in the oceans feature hotspots of biodiversity that reflect geological influences on ecological and evolutionary processes. Over geologic time, topographic diversity gradients wax and wane over millions of years, tracking tectonic or climatic history. Topographic diversity gradients from the present day and the past can result from the generation of species by vicariance or from the accumulation of species from dispersal into a region with strong environmental gradients. Biological and geological approaches must be integrated to test alternative models of diversification along topographic gradients. Reciprocal illumination among phylogenetic, phylogeographic, ecological, paleontological, tectonic, and climatic perspectives is an emerging frontier of biogeographic research.

Fine-scale climate change: modelling spatial variation in biologically meaningful rates of warming

The existence of fine-grain climate heterogeneity has prompted suggestions that species may be able to survive future climate change in pockets of suitable microclimate, termed 'microrefugia'. However, evidence for microrefugia is hindered by lack of understanding of how rates of warming vary across a landscape. Here, we present a model that is applied to provide fine-grained, multidecadal estimates of temperature change based on the underlying physical processes that influence microclimate. Weather station and remotely derived environmental data were used to construct physical variables that capture the effects of terrain, sea surface temperatures, altitude and surface albedo on local temperatures, which were then calibrated statistically to derive gridded estimates of temperature. We apply the model to the Lizard Peninsula, United Kingdom, to provide accurate (mean error = 1.21 °C; RMS error = 1.63 °C) hourly estimates of temperature at a resolution of 100 m for the period 1977-2014. We show that rates of warming vary across a landscape primarily due to long-term trends in weather conditions. Total warming varied from 0.87 to 1.16 °C, with the slowest rates of warming evident on north-east-facing slopes. This variation contributed to substantial spatial heterogeneity in trends in bioclimatic variables: for example, the change in the length of the frost-free season varied from +11 to -54 days and the increase in annual growing degree-days from 51 to 267 °C days. Spatial variation in warming was caused primarily by a decrease in daytime cloud cover with a resulting increase in received solar radiation, and secondarily by a decrease in the strength of westerly winds, which has amplified the effects on temperature of solar radiation on west-facing slopes. We emphasize the importance of multidecadal trends in weather conditions in determining spatial variation in rates of warming, suggesting that locations experiencing least warming may not remain consistent under future climate change.

Demographic history of the trace metal hyperaccumulator Noccaea caerulescens (J. Presl and C. Presl) F. K. Mey. in Western Europe

Noccaea caerulescens (Brassicaceae) is a major pseudometallophyte model for the investigation of the genetics and evolution of metal hyperaccumulation in plants. We studied the population genetics and demographic history of this species to advance the understanding of among-population differences in metal hyperaccumulation and tolerance abilities. Sampling of seven to 30 plants was carried out in 62 sites in Western Europe. Genotyping was carried out using a combination of new chloroplast and nuclear neutral markers. A strong genetic structure was detected, allowing the definition of three genetic subunits. Subunits showed a good geographic coherence. Accordingly, distant metallicolous populations generally belonged to distinct subunits. Approximate Bayesian computation analysis of demographic scenarios among subunits further supported a primary isolation of populations from the southern Massif Central prior to last glacial maximum, whereas northern populations may have derived during postglacial recolonization events. Estimated divergence times among subunits were rather recent in comparison with the species history, but certainly before the establishment of anthropogenic metalliferous sites. Our results suggest that the large-scale genetic structure of N. caerulescens populations pre-existed to the local adaptation to metalliferous sites. The population structure of quantitative variation for metal-related adaptive traits must have established independently in isolated gene pools. However, features of the most divergent genetic unit (e.g. extreme levels of Cd accumulation observed in previous studies) question the putative relationships between adaptive evolution of metal-related traits and subunits isolation. Finally, admixture signals among distant metallicolous populations suggest a putative role of human activities in facilitating long-distance genetic exchanges.

Between the Balkans and the Baltic: Phylogeography of a Common Vole Mitochondrial DNA Lineage Limited to Central Europe

The common vole (Microtus arvalis) has been a model species of small mammal for studying end-glacial colonization history. In the present study we expanded the sampling from central and eastern Europe, analyzing contemporary genetic structure to identify the role of a potential 'northern glacial refugium', i.e. a refugium at a higher latitude than the traditional Mediterranean refugia. Altogether we analyzed 786 cytochrome b (cytb) sequences (representing mitochondrial DNA; mtDNA) from the whole of Europe, adding 177 new sequences from central and eastern Europe, and we conducted analyses on eight microsatellite loci for 499 individuals (representing nuclear DNA) from central and eastern Europe, adding data on 311 new specimens. Our new data fill gaps in the vicinity of the Carpathian Mountains, the potential northern refugium, such that there is now dense sampling from the Balkans to the Baltic Sea. Here we present evidence that the Eastern mtDNA lineage of the common vole was present in the vicinity of this Carpathian refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Younger Dryas. The Eastern lineage expanded from this refugium to the Baltic and shows low cytb nucleotide diversity in those most northerly parts of the distribution. Analyses of microsatellites revealed a similar pattern but also showed little differentiation between all of the populations sampled in central and eastern Europe.

Glacial refugia and the prediction of future habitat coverage of the South American lichen species Ochrolechia austroamericana

The biogeographic history of lichenized fungi remains unrevealed because those organisms rarely fossilize due to their delicate, often tiny and quickly rotting thalli. Also the ecology and factors limiting occurrence of numerous taxa, especially those restricted in their distribution to tropical areas are poorly recognized. The aim of this study was to determine localization of glacial refugia of South American Ochrolechia austroamericana and to estimate the future changes in the coverage of its habitats using ecological niche modeling tools. The general glacial potential range of the studied species was wider than it is nowadays and its niches coverage decreased by almost 25% since last glacial maximum. The refugial areas were covered by cool and dry grasslands and scrubs and suitable niches in South America were located near the glacier limit. According to our analyses the further climate changes will not significantly influence the distribution of the suitable niches of O. austroamericana.

Genetic Structure in the Northern Range Margins of Common Ash, Fraxinus excelsior L

During post glacial colonization, loss of genetic diversity due to leading edge effects may be attenuated in forest trees because of their prolonged juvenile phase, allowing many migrants to reach the colonizing front before populations become reproductive. The northern range margins of temperate tree taxa in Europe are particularly suitable to study the genetic processes that follow colonization because they have been little affected by northern refugia. Here we examined how post glacial range dynamics have shaped the genetic structure of common ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) in its northern range compared to its central range in Europe. We used four chloroplast and six nuclear microsatellites to screen 42 populations (1099 trees), half of which corresponded to newly sampled populations in the northern range and half of which represented reference populations from the central range obtained from previously studies. We found that northern range populations of common ash have the same chloroplast haplotypes as south-eastern European populations, suggesting that colonization of the northern range took place along a single migration route, a result confirmed by the structure at the nuclear microsatellites. Along this route, diversity strongly decreased only in the northern range, concomitantly with increasing population differentiation and complex population substructures, a pattern consistent with a leading edge colonization model. Our study highlights that while diversity is maintained in the central range of common ash due to broad colonizing fronts and high levels of gene flow, it profoundly decreases in the northern range, where colonization was unidirectional and probably involved repeated founder events and population fluctuations. Currently, common ash is threatened by ash dieback, and our results on northern populations will be valuable for developing gene conservation strategies.

Andean microrefugia: testing the Holocene to predict the Anthropocene

Microrefugia are important for supporting populations during periods of unfavourable climate change and in facilitating rapid migration as conditions ameliorate. With ongoing anthropogenic climate change, microrefugia could have an important conservation value; however, a simple tool has not been developed and tested to predict which settings are microrefugial. We provide a tool based on terrain ruggedness modelling of individual catchments to predict Andean microrefugia. We tested the predictions using nine Holocene Polylepis pollen records. We used the mid-Holocene dry event, a period of peak aridity for the last 100 000 yr, as an analogue climate scenario for the near future. The results suggest that sites with high terrain rugosity have the greatest chance of sustaining mesic conditions under drier-than-modern climates. Fire is a feature of all catchments; however, an increase in fire is only recorded in settings with low rugosity. Owing to rising temperatures and greater precipitation variability, Andean ecosystems are threatened by increasing moisture stress. Our results suggest that high terrain rugosity helps to create more resilient catchments by trapping moisture through orographic rainfall and providing firebreaks that shelter forest from fire. On this basis, conservation policy should target protection and management of catchments with high terrain rugosity.

Too early and too northerly: evidence of temperate trees in northern Central Europe during the Younger Dryas

This paper presents highly unexpected paleobotanical data. Eight (14) C-accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dates of soil macrocharcoal pieces, identified taxonomically, indicate the presence of oak and beech in the Younger Dryas, and pine in the Allerød, in the northernmost low mountain range of Central Europe, the Harz Mountains, in Germany. If the presence of pine at such latitude and periods is not surprising, the presence of temperate-adapted trees is highly improbable, because they are assumed to have reached the area from a southern location several thousand years later. Two hypotheses are postulated to explain this record. Both are related to the warm periods of the Bølling and Allerød: the classically 'short' duration of this warm period makes the migration of the temperate trees from the identified refuge areas in the southern location implausible, and so the presence of intermediary microrefugia at a medium latitude in Central Europe is postulated; recent data reveal that the warm period of the Late Glacial phase was much longer than considered in the classical view and, thus, would be long enough for a northward migration of temperate-adapted trees. Although our dataset does not permit disentanglement of these hypotheses, it provides significant innovative insights for the biogeography of Central Europe.

Adaptive evolution and segregating load contribute to the genomic landscape of divergence in two tree species connected by episodic gene flow

Speciation often involves repeated episodes of genetic contact between divergent populations before reproductive isolation (RI) is complete. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) holds great promise for unravelling the genomic bases of speciation. We have studied two ecologically divergent, hybridizing species of the 'model tree' genus Populus (poplars, aspens, cottonwoods), Populus alba and P. tremula, using >8.6 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from WGS of population pools. We used the genomic data to (i) scan these species' genomes for regions of elevated and reduced divergence, (ii) assess key aspects of their joint demographic history based on genomewide site frequency spectra (SFS) and (iii) infer the potential roles of adaptive and deleterious coding mutations in shaping the genomic landscape of divergence. We identified numerous small, unevenly distributed genome regions without fixed polymorphisms despite high overall genomic differentiation. The joint SFS was best explained by ancient and repeated gene flow and allowed pinpointing candidate interspecific migrant tracts. The direction of selection (DoS) differed between genes in putative migrant tracts and the remainder of the genome, thus indicating the potential roles of adaptive divergence and segregating deleterious mutations on the evolution and breakdown of RI. Genes affected by positive selection during divergence were enriched for several functionally interesting groups, including well-known candidate 'speciation genes' involved in plant innate immunity. Our results suggest that adaptive divergence affects RI in these hybridizing species mainly through intrinsic and demographic processes. Integrating genomic with molecular data holds great promise for revealing the effects of particular genetic pathways on speciation.

Recent similarity in distribution ranges does not mean a similar postglacial history: a phylogeographical study of the boreal tree species Alnus incana based on microsatellite and chloroplast DNA variation

We reconstructed the historical pattern of postglacial biogeographic range expansion of the boreal tree species Alnus incana in Europe. To assess population genetic structure and diversity, we performed a combined analysis of nuclear microsatellite loci and chloroplast DNA sequences (65 populations, 1004 individuals). Analysis of haplotype and microsatellite diversity revealed that southeastern refugial populations situated in the Carpathians and the Balkan Peninsula did not spread north and cannot be considered as important source populations for postglacial recolonization of Europe; populations in Eastern Europe did not establish Fennoscandian populations; populations in Fennoscandia and Eastern Europe have no unique genetic cluster, but represent a mix with a predominant cluster typical for Central Europe; and that colonization of Fennoscandia and Eastern Europe took place from Central Europe. Our findings highlight the importance of an effective refugium in Central Europe located outside classical southern refugia confirming the existence of northern refugia for boreal trees in Europe. The postglacial range expansion of A. incana did not follow the model established for Picea abies. Fennoscandian populations are not derived from Eastern European ones, but from Central European ones.

The extent and meaning of hybridization and introgression between Siberian spruce (Picea obovata) and Norway spruce (Picea abies): cryptic refugia as stepping stones to the west?

Boreal species were repeatedly exposed to ice ages and went through cycles of contraction and expansion while sister species alternated periods of contact and isolation. The resulting genetic structure is consequently complex, and demographic inferences are intrinsically challenging. The range of Norway spruce (Picea abies) and Siberian spruce (Picea obovata) covers most of northern Eurasia; yet their geographical limits and histories remain poorly understood. To delineate the hybrid zone between the two species and reconstruct their joint demographic history, we analysed variation at nuclear SSR and mitochondrial DNA in 102 and 88 populations, respectively. The dynamics of the hybrid zone was analysed with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) followed by posterior predictive structure plot reconstruction and the presence of barriers across the range tested with estimated effective migration surfaces. To estimate the divergence time between the two species, nuclear sequences from two well-separated populations of each species were analysed with ABC. Two main barriers divide the range of the two species: one corresponds to the hybrid zone between them, and the other separates the southern and northern domains of Norway spruce. The hybrid zone is centred on the Urals, but the genetic impact of Siberian spruce extends further west. The joint distribution of mitochondrial and nuclear variation indicates an introgression of mitochondrial DNA from Norway spruce into Siberian spruce. Overall, our data reveal a demographic history where the two species interacted frequently and where migrants originating from the Urals and the West Siberian Plain recolonized northern Russia and Scandinavia using scattered refugial populations of Norway spruce as stepping stones towards the west.

Contrasting genetic patterns between two coexisting Eleutherococcus species in northern China

Climate oscillations are the key factors to understand the patterns in modern biodiversity. East Asia harbors the most diverse temperate flora, largely because an extensive terrestrial ice cap was absent during repeated Pleistocene glaciation-interglacial cycles. Comparing the demographic histories of species that are codistributed and are close relatives may provide insight into how the process of climate change influences species ranges. In this study, we compared the spatial genetic structure and demographic histories of two coexisting Eleutherococcus species, Eleutherococcus senticosus and E. sessiliflorus. Both species are distributed in northern China, regions that are generally considered to be sensitive to climatic fluctuations. These regions once hosted temperate forest, but this temperate forest was replaced by tundra and taiga forest during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), according to pollen records. Using three chloroplast DNA fragments, we assessed the genetic structure of 20 and 9 natural populations of E. senticosus and E. sessiliflorus, respectively. Extremely contrasting genetic patterns were found between the two species; E. sessiliflorus had little genetic variation, whereas E. senticosus had considerably higher levels of genetic variation (15 haplotypes). We speculated that a recent severe bottleneck may have resulted in the extremely low genetic diversity in E. sessiliflorus. In E. senticosus, populations in Northeast China (NEC) harbored all of the haplotypes found in this species and included private haplotypes. The populations in NEC had higher levels of genetic diversity than did those from North China (NC). Therefore, we suggest that both the NC and NEC regions can sustain LGM refugia and that lineage admixture from multiple refugia took place after the LGM elevated the local genetic diversity in NEC. In NEC, multiple genetic hot spots were found in the Changbai Mountains and the Xiaoxing'an Range, which implied that multiple locations in NEC may sustain LGM refugia, even in the Xiaoxing'an Range.

The Quaternary evolutionary history, potential distribution dynamics, and conservation implications for a Qinghai-Tibet Plateau endemic herbaceous perennial, Anisodus tanguticus (Solanaceae)

Various hypotheses have been proposed about the Quaternary evolutionary history of plant species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), yet only a handful of studies have considered both population genetics and ecological niche context. In this study, we proposed and compared climate refugia hypotheses based on the phylogeographic pattern of Anisodus tanguticus (three plastid DNA fragments and nuclear internal transcribed spacer regions from 32 populations) and present and past species distribution models (SDMs). We detected six plastid haplotypes in two well-differentiated lineages. Although all haplotypes could be found in its western (sampling) area, only haplotypes from one lineage occurred in its eastern area. Meanwhile, most genetic variations existed between populations (F ST = 0.822). The SDMs during the last glacial maximum and last interglacial periods showed range fragmentation in the western area and significant range contraction in the eastern area, respectively, in comparison with current potential distribution. This species may have undergone intraspecific divergence during the early Quaternary, which may have been caused by survival in different refugia during the earliest known glacial in the QTP, rather than geological isolation due to orogenesis events. Subsequently, climate oscillations during the Quaternary resulted in a dynamic distribution range for this species as well as the distribution pattern of its plastid haplotypes and nuclear genotypes. The interglacial periods may have had a greater effect on A. tanguticus than the glacial periods. Most importantly, neither genetic data nor SDM alone can fully reveal the climate refugia history of this species. We also discuss the conservation implications for this important Tibetan folk medicine plant in light of these findings and SDMs under future climate models. Together, our results underline the necessity to combine phylogeographic and SDM approaches in future investigations of the Quaternary evolutionary history of species in topographically complex areas, such as the QTP.