Modelling the spatial risk of malaria through probability distribution of Anopheles maculipennis s.l. and imported cases

Malaria remains one of the most important infectious diseases globally due to its high incidence and mortality rates. The influx of infected cases from endemic to non-endemic malaria regions like Europe has resulted in a public health concern over sporadic local outbreaks. This is facilitated by the continued presence of competent Anopheles vectors in non-endemic countries.We modelled the potential distribution of the main malaria vector across Spain using the ensemble of eight modelling techniques based on environmental parameters and the Anopheles maculipennis s.l. presence/absence data collected from 2000 to 2020. We then combined this map with the number of imported malaria cases in each municipality to detect the geographic hot spots with a higher risk of local malaria transmission.The malaria vector occurred preferentially in irrigated lands characterized by warm climate conditions and moderate annual precipitation. Some areas surrounding irrigated lands in northern Spain (e.g. Zaragoza, Logroño), mainland areas (e.g. Madrid, Toledo) and in the South (e.g. Huelva), presented a significant likelihood of A. maculipennis s.l. occurrence, with a large overlap with the presence of imported cases of malaria.While the risk of malaria re-emergence in Spain is low, it is not evenly distributed throughout the country. The four recorded local cases of mosquito-borne transmission occurred in areas with a high overlap of imported cases and mosquito presence. Integrating mosquito distribution with human incidence cases provides an effective tool for the quantification of large-scale geographic variation in transmission risk and pinpointing priority areas for targeted surveillance and prevention.

Tracing histoplasmosis genomic epidemiology and species occurrence across the USA

ABSTRACTHistoplasmosis is an endemic mycosis in North America frequently reported along the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys, although autochthonous cases occur in non-endemic areas. In the United States, the disease is provoked by two genetically distinct clades of Histoplasma capsulatum sensu lato, Histoplasma mississippiense (Nam1) and H. ohiense (Nam2). To bridge the molecular epidemiological gap, we genotyped 93 Histoplasma isolates (62 novel genomes) including clinical, environmental, and veterinarian samples from a broader geographical range by whole-genome sequencing, followed by evolutionary and species niche modelling analyses. We show that histoplasmosis is caused by two major lineages, H. ohiense and H. mississippiense; with sporadic cases caused by H. suramericanum in California and Texas. While H. ohiense is prevalent in eastern states, H. mississipiense was found to be prevalent in the central and western portions of the United States, but also geographically overlapping in some areas suggesting that these species might co-occur. Species Niche Modelling revealed that H. ohiense thrives in places with warmer and drier conditions, while H. mississippiense is endemic to areas with cooler temperatures and more precipitation. In addition, we predicted multiple areas of secondary contact zones where the two species co-occur, potentially facilitating gene exchange and hybridization. This study provides the most comprehensive understanding of the genomic epidemiology of histoplasmosis in the USA and lays a blueprint for the study of invasive fungal diseases.

Phylogenetics and phylogeography of Euphorbia canariensis reveal an extreme Canarian-Asian disjunction but limited inter-island colonization

Euphorbia canariensis is an iconic endemic species representative of the lowland xerophytic communities of the Canary Islands. It is widely distributed in the archipelago despite having diasporas unspecialized for long-distance dispersal. Here, we reconstructed the evolutionary history of E. canariensis at two levels: a time-calibrated phylogenetic analysis aimed at clarifying interspecific relationships and large-scale biogeographic patterns; and a phylogeographic study focused on the history of colonization across the Canary Islands. For the phylogenetic study, we sequenced the ITS region for E. canariensis and related species of Euphorbia sect. Euphorbia. For the phylogeographic study, we sequenced two cpDNA regions for 28 populations representing the distribution range of E. canariensis. The number of inter-island colonization events was explored using PAICE, a recently developed method that includes a sample size correction. Additionally, we used species distribution modelling (SDM) to evaluate environmental suitability for E. canariensis through time. Phylogenetic results supported a close relationship between E. canariensis and certain Southeast Asian species (E. epiphylloides, E. lacei, E. sessiliflora). In the Canaries, E. canariensis displayed a west-to-east colonization pattern, not conforming to the "progression rule", i.e. the concordance between phylogeographic patterns and island emergence times. We estimated between 20 and 50 inter-island colonization events, all of them in the Quaternary, and SDM suggested a late Quaternary increase in environmental suitability for E. canariensis. The extreme biogeographic disjunction between Macaronesia and Southeast Asia (ca. 11,000 km) parallels that found in a few other genera (Pinus, Dracaena). We hypothesize that these disjunctions are better explained by extinction across north Africa and southwest Asia rather than long-distance dispersal. The relatively low number of inter-island colonization events across the Canaries is congruent with the low dispersal capabilities of E. canariensis.

Unravelling the impact of climate change on honey bees: An ensemble modelling approach to predict shifts in habitat suitability in Queensland, Australia

Honey bees play a vital role in providing essential ecosystem services and contributing to global agriculture. However, the potential effect of climate change on honey bee distribution is still not well understood. This study aims to identify the most influential bioclimatic and environmental variables, assess their impact on honey bee distribution, and predict future distribution. An ensemble modelling approach using the biomod2 package in R was employed to develop three models: a climate-only model, an environment-only model, and a combined climate and environment model. By utilising bioclimatic data (radiation of the wettest and driest quarters and temperature seasonality) from 1990 to 2009, combined with observed honey bee presence and pseudo absence data, this model predicted suitable locations for honey bee apiaries for two future time spans: 2020-2039 and 2060-2079. The climate-only model exhibited a true skill statistic (TSS) value of 0.85, underscoring the pivotal role of radiation and temperature seasonality in shaping honey bee distribution. The environment-only model, incorporating proximity to floral resources, foliage projective cover, and elevation, demonstrated strong predictive performance, with a TSS of 0.88, emphasising the significance of environmental variables in determining habitat suitability for honey bees. The combined model had a higher TSS of 0.96, indicating that the combination of climate and environmental variables enhances the model's performance. By the 2020-2039 period, approximately 88% of highly suitable habitats for honey bees are projected to transition from their current state to become moderate (14.84%) to marginally suitable (13.46%) areas. Predictions for the 2060-2079 period reveal a concerning trend: 100% of highly suitable land transitions into moderately (0.54%), marginally (17.56%), or not suitable areas (81.9%) for honey bees. These results emphasise the critical need for targeted conservation efforts and the implementation of policies aimed at safeguarding honey bees and the vital apiary industry.

Distribution Model Reveals Rapid Decline in Habitat Extent for Endangered Hispid Hare: Implications for Wildlife Management and Conservation Planning in Future Climate Change Scenarios

The hispid hare, Caprolagus hispidus, belonging to the family Leporidae is a small grassland mammal found in the southern foothills of the Himalayas, in India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Despite having an endangered status according to the IUCN Red List, it lacks studies on its distribution and is threatened by habitat loss and land cover changes. Thus, the present study attempted to assess the habitat suitability using the species distribution model approach for the first time and projected its future in response to climate change, habitat, and urbanization factors. The results revealed that out of the total geographical extent of 188,316 km2, only 11,374 km2 (6.03%) were identified as suitable habitat for this species. The results also revealed that habitat significantly declined across its range (>60%) under certain climate change scenarios. Moreover, in the present climate scenario protected areas such as Shuklaphanta National Park (0.837) in Nepal exhibited the highest mean extent of habitat whereas, in India, Dibru-Saikhowa National Park (0.631) is found to be the most suitable habitat. Notably, two protected areas in Uttarakhand, India, specifically Corbett National Park (0.530) and Sonanandi Wildlife Sanctuary (0.423), have also demonstrated suitable habitats for C. hispidus. Given that protected areas showing a future rise in habitat suitability might also be regarded as potential sites for species translocation, this study underscores the importance of implementing proactive conservation strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on this species. It is essential to prioritize habitat restoration, focused protection measures, and further species-level ecological exploration to address these challenges effectively. Furthermore, fostering transboundary collaboration and coordinated conservation actions between nations is crucial to safeguarding the long-term survival of the species throughout its distribution range.

Importance of Habitat Context in Modelling Risk Maps for Two Established Invasive Alien Plant Species: The Case of Ailanthus altissima and Phytolacca americana in Slovenia (Europe)

Forests are important ecosystems that face threats from climate change and global environmental shifts, with invasive alien plant species being a significant concern. Some of these invasive species have already become established, while others are in the process of naturalisation. Although forests are a relatively stable ecosystem, extreme weather events increase their vulnerability to change, and clearings left after natural disturbances are particularly susceptible to invasion by alien plant species (IAPS). We created risk maps of two species that have spread rapidly in the last decade: American pokeweed (Phytolacca americana) and the tree of heaven (Ailanthus altissima). We prepared a generalised linear model based on the occurrence data collected within the LIFE ARTEMIS project. Eleven environmental variables were used to determine habitat characteristics. We constructed two models for each species: one covering the entirety of Slovenia and the other specifically for the forested areas in Slovenia, with the latter incorporating forest-specific variables (such as forest sanitation felling and monocultures). We observed the presence of both species at lower altitudes and in close proximity to water sources. American pokeweed tends to occur nearer to railways, while the presence of the tree of heaven is associated with areas lacking carbonate parent material and influenced by land use patterns. In forested areas, the occurrence of American pokeweed is influenced by forest habitat characteristics, such as disturbances caused by extreme weather events or the prevalence of Norway spruce monocultures. In contrast, the occurrence of the tree of heaven is influenced by more general environmental variables, such as altitude and proximity to railways. Consequently, we have generated risk maps for the entirety of Slovenia and separately for forested areas, both of which indicate similar levels of risk, particularly for the tree of heaven. The risk map for American pokeweed highlights numerous vulnerable areas, especially forest edges, which are highly susceptible to invasion. Furthermore, there is a higher likelihood of this species occurring in areas that have undergone sanitation felling. This study suggests that the production of risk maps of IAPS could be improved by focussing on habitat types and taking into account habitat-specific variables. This approach could enhance the early detection and management of these invasive species.

The cumulative niche approach: A framework to assess the performance of ecological niche model projections

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are often used to project species distributions within alien ranges and in future climatic scenarios. However, ENMs depend on species-environment equilibrium, which may be absent for actively expanding species. We present a novel framework to estimate whether species have reached environmental equilibrium in their native and alien ranges. The method is based on the estimation of niche breadth with the accumulation of species occurrences. An asymptote will indicate exhaustive knowledge of the realised niches. We demonstrate the CNA framework for 26 species of mammals, amphibians, and birds. Possible outcomes of the framework include: (1) There is enough data to quantify the native and alien realised niches, allowing us to calculate niche expansion between the native and alien ranges, also indicating that ENMs can be reliably projected to new environmental conditions. (2) The data in the native range is not adequate but an asymptote is reached in the alien realised niche, indicating low confidence in our ability to evaluate niche expansion in the alien range but high confidence in model projections to new environmental conditions within the alien range. (3) There is enough data to quantify the native realised niche, but not enough knowledge about the alien realised niche, hindering the reliability of projections beyond sampled conditions. (4) Both the native and alien ranges do not reach an asymptote, and thus few robust conclusions about the species' niche or future projections can be made. Our framework can be used to detect species' environmental equilibrium in both the native and alien ranges, to quantify changes in the realised niche during the invasion processes, and to estimate the likely accuracy of model projections to new environmental conditions.

Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species

Species distributions are conventionally modelled using coarse-grained macroclimate data measured in open areas, potentially leading to biased predictions since most terrestrial species reside in the shade of trees. For forest plant species across Europe, we compared conventional macroclimate-based species distribution models (SDMs) with models corrected for forest microclimate buffering. We show that microclimate-based SDMs at high spatial resolution outperformed models using macroclimate and microclimate data at coarser resolution. Additionally, macroclimate-based models introduced a systematic bias in modelled species response curves, which could result in erroneous range shift predictions. Critically important for conservation science, these models were unable to identify warm and cold refugia at the range edges of species distributions. Our study emphasizes the crucial role of microclimate data when SDMs are used to gain insights into biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change, particularly given the growing policy and management focus on the conservation of refugia worldwide.

Climate change affects the distribution of diversity across marine food webs

Many studies predict shifts in species distributions and community size composition in response to climate change, yet few have demonstrated how these changes will be distributed across marine food webs. We use Bayesian Additive Regression Trees to model how climate change will affect the habitat suitability of marine fish species across a range of body sizes and belonging to different feeding guilds, each with different habitat and feeding requirements in the northeast Atlantic shelf seas. Contrasting effects of climate change are predicted for feeding guilds, with spatially extensive decreases in the species richness of consumers lower in the food web (planktivores) but increases for those higher up (piscivores). Changing spatial patterns in predator-prey mass ratios and fish species size composition are also predicted for feeding guilds and across the fish assemblage. In combination, these changes could influence nutrient uptake and transformation, transfer efficiency and food web stability, and thus profoundly alter ecosystem structure and functioning.

Epiphytic CAM bromeliads indicate vulnerability of tropical forest communities to climate change

BACKGROUND AND SCOPE

Vascular epiphytes have a variety of mechanisms to trap and retain water, including crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM). Niche segregation was investigated for epiphytic bromeliads on the tropical Caribbean island of Trinidad, where habitats range from lowland deciduous forests to high-rainfall montane tropical forests, ~1000 m in elevation.

METHODS

Four tank-impounding bromeliad epiphytes in the genus Aechmea (Ae. aquilega, Ae. fendleri, Ae. nudicaulis and Ae. dichlamydea) with CAM were mapped across their distinct geographical and elevational zonations in northern Trinidad and Tobago. Species distribution modelling was used to determine environmental limitations for each species. Anatomical and physiological measurements included leaf succulence traits, gas exchange and CAM activity; hydraulic conductance and vulnerability; stomatal sensitivity and quantum yield responses to nocturnal temperature and long-term water deficits.

KEY RESULTS

A total of 2876 field observations identified the transitions between the lowland Ae. aquilega and montane Ae. fendleri, occurring >500 m a.s.l. at the drier western end of the Northern Mountain Range and at progressively lower elevations towards the wetter, eastern region. Anatomical and physiological sensitivities of gas exchange, CAM activity and water use, and responses to elevated nocturnal temperatures and drought, were markedly different for Ae. fendleri compared with Ae. aquilega or the ubiquitous Ae. nudicaulis.

CONCLUSIONS

The species distribution model highlighted the susceptibility of Ae. fendleri to a changing climate. For each species, physiological and anatomical traits were tailored to environmental tolerances, consistent with specialist or generalist niche preferences. Using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios, we predict that rapid rainfall and temperature changes will lead to the loss of Ae. fendleri and associated lower (and upper) montane forest communities from Trinidad, seriously impacting both biodiversity and critical ecosystem functions here and in other tropical island habitats. Epiphytic bromeliads act as markers for threatened communities, and their physiological tolerances represent key indicators of climate change impacts.

Geographic isolation and climatic heterogeneity drive population differentiation of Rosa chinensis var. spontanea complex

Global biodiversity is contracting rapidly due to potent anthropogenic activities and severe climate change. Wild populations of Rosa chinensis var. spontanea and Rosa lucidissima are rare species endemic to China, as well as important germplasm resources for rose breeding. However, these populations are at acute risk of extinction and require urgent action to ensure their preservation. We harnessed 16 microsatellite loci to 44 populations of these species and analysed population structure and differentiation, demographic history, gene flow and barrier effect. In addition, a niche overlap test and potential distribution modelling in different time periods were also carried out. The data indicate that: (1) R. lucidissima cannot be regarded as a separate species from R. chinensis var. spontanea; (2) the Yangtze River and the Wujiang River function as barriers in population structure and differentiation, and precipitation in the coldest quarter may be the key factor for niche divergence of R. chinensis var. spontanea complex; (3) historical gene flow showed a converse tendency to current gene flow, indicating that alternate migration events of R. chinensis var. spontanea complex between south and north were a response to climate oscillations; and (4) extreme climate change will decrease the distribution range of R. chinensis var. spontanea complex, whereas the opposite will occur under a moderate scenario for the future. Our results resolve the relationship between R. chinensis var. spontanea and R. lucidissima, highlight the pivotal roles of geographic isolation and climate heterogeneity in their population differentiation, and provide an important reference for comparable conservation studies on other endangered species.

Empirical Data Suggest That the Kashmir Musk Deer (Moschus cupreus, Grubb 1982) Is the One Musk Deer Distributed in the Western Himalayas: An Integration of Ecology, Genetics and Geospatial Modelling Approaches

Insufficient research has been conducted on musk deer species across their distribution range, primarily because of their elusive behaviour and the fact they occupy remote high-altitude habitats in the Himalayas above 2500 m. The available distribution records, primarily derived from ecological studies with limited photographic and indirect evidence, fail to provide comprehensive information on the species distribution. Consequently, uncertainties arise when attempting to determine the presence of specific taxonomic units of musk deer in the Western Himalayas. This lack of knowledge hampers species-oriented conservation efforts, as there need to be more species-specific initiatives focused on monitoring, protecting, and combatting the illegal poaching of musk deer for their valuable musk pods. We used transect surveys (220 trails), camera traps (255 cameras), non-invasive DNA sampling (40 samples), and geospatial modelling (279 occurrence records) to resolve the taxonomic ambiguity, and identify the suitable habitat of musk deer (Moschus spp.) in Uttarkashi District of Uttarakhand and the Lahaul-Pangi landscape of Himachal Pradesh. All the captured images and DNA-based identification results confirmed the presence of only Kashmir musk deer (KDM) (Moschus cupreus) in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. The results suggest that KMD inhabit a narrow range of suitable habitats (6.9%) of the entire Western Himalayas. Since all evidence indicates that only KMD are present in the Western Himalayas, we suggest that the presence of other species of musk deer (Alpine musk deer and Himalayan musk deer) was wrongly reported. Therefore, future conservation plans and management strategies must focus only on KMD in the Western Himalayas.

Modeling the Distribution of the Chytrid Fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis with Special Reference to Ukraine

Amphibians are the most threatened group of vertebrates. While habitat loss poses the greatest threat to amphibians, a spreading fungal disease caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis Longcore, Pessier & D.K. Nichols 1999 (Bd) is seriously affecting an increasing number of species. Although Bd is widely prevalent, there are identifiable heterogeneities in the pathogen's distribution that are linked to environmental parameters. Our objective was to identify conditions that affect the geographic distribution of this pathogen using species distribution models (SDMs) with a special focus on Eastern Europe. SDMs can help identify hotspots for future outbreaks of Bd but perhaps more importantly identify locations that may be environmental refuges ("coldspots") from infection. In general, climate is considered a major factor driving amphibian disease dynamics, but temperature in particular has received increased attention. Here, 42 environmental raster layers containing data on climate, soil, and human impact were used. The mean annual temperature range (or 'continentality') was found to have the strongest constraint on the geographic distribution of this pathogen. The modeling allowed to distinguish presumable locations that may be environmental refuges from infection and set up a framework to guide future search (sampling) of chytridiomycosis in Eastern Europe.

Current and future distribution of a parasite with complex life cycle under global change scenarios: Echinococcus multilocularis in Europe

Global change is expected to have complex effects on the distribution and transmission patterns of zoonotic parasites. Modelling habitat suitability for parasites with complex life cycles is essential to further our understanding of how disease systems respond to environmental changes, and to make spatial predictions of their future distributions. However, the limited availability of high quality occurrence data with high spatial resolution often constrains these investigations. Using 449 reliable occurrence records for Echinococcus multilocularis from across Europe published over the last 35 years, we modelled habitat suitability for this parasite, the aetiological agent of alveolar echinococcosis, in order to describe its environmental niche, predict its current and future distribution under three global change scenarios, and quantify the probability of occurrence for each European country. Using a machine learning approach, we developed large-scale (25 × 25 km) species distribution models based on seven sets of predictors, each set representing a distinct biological hypothesis supported by current knowledge of the autecology of the parasite. The best-supported hypothesis included climatic, orographic and land-use/land-cover variables such as the temperature of the coldest quarter, forest cover, urban cover and the precipitation seasonality. Future projections suggested the appearance of highly suitable areas for E. multilocularis towards northern latitudes and in the whole Alpine region under all scenarios, while decreases in habitat suitability were predicted for central Europe. Our spatially explicit predictions of habitat suitability shed light on the complex responses of parasites to ongoing global changes.

Comparing the Performance of CMCC-BioClimInd and WorldClim Datasets in Predicting Global Invasive Plant Distributions

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has been widely used to predict the distribution of invasive plant species based on bioclimatic variables. However, the specific selection of these variables may affect the performance of SDM. This investigation elucidates a new bioclimate variable dataset (i.e., CMCC-BioClimInd) for its use in SDM. The predictive performance of SDM that includes WorldClim and CMCC-BioClimInd was evaluated by AUC and omission rate and the explanatory power of both datasets was assessed by the jackknife method. Furthermore, the ODMAP protocol was used to record CMCC-BioClimInd to ensure reproducibility. The results indicated that CMCC-BioClimInd effectively simulates invasive plant species' distribution. Based on the contribution rate of CMCC-BioClimInd to the distribution of invasive plant species, it was inferred that the modified and simplified continentality and Kira warmth index from CMCC-BioClimInd had a strong explanatory power. Under the 35 bioclimatic variables of CMCC-BioClimInd, alien invasive plant species are mainly distributed in equatorial, tropical, and subtropical regions. We tested a new bioclimate variable dataset to simulate the distribution of invasive plant species worldwide. This method has great potential to improve the efficiency of species distribution modeling, thereby providing a new perspective for risk assessment and management of global invasive plant species.

The Afrotropical breeding grounds of the Palearctic-African migratory painted lady butterflies (Vanessa cardui)

Migratory insects are key players in ecosystem functioning and services, but their spatiotemporal distributions are typically poorly known. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) may be used to predict species seasonal distributions, but the resulting hypotheses should eventually be validated by field data. The painted lady butterfly (Vanessa cardui) performs multigenerational migrations between Europe and Africa and has become a model species for insect movement ecology. While the annual migration cycle of this species is well understood for Europe and northernmost Africa, it is still unknown where most individuals spend the winter. Through ENM, we previously predicted suitable breeding grounds in the subhumid regions near the tropics between November and February. In this work, we assess the suitability of these predictions through i) extensive field surveys and ii) two-year monitoring in six countries: a large-scale monitoring scheme to study butterfly migration in Africa. We document new breeding locations, year-round phenological information, and hostplant use. Field observations were nearly always predicted with high probability by the previous ENM, and monitoring demonstrated the influence of the precipitation seasonality regime on migratory phenology. Using the updated dataset, we built a refined ENM for the Palearctic-African range of V. cardui. We confirm the relevance of the Afrotropical region and document the missing natural history pieces of the longest migratory cycle described in butterflies.

Habitat Suitability and Conflict Zone Mapping for the Blue Bull (Boselaphus tragocamelus) across Nepal

Rapidly changing environmental conditions (bioclimatic, anthropogenic, topographic, and vegetation-related variables) are likely to alter the spatial distribution of flora and fauna. To understand the influence of environmental variables on the Blue bull's distribution and to identify potential conflict zones, the habitat suitability analysis of the Blue bull was performed using ensemble modeling. We modelled the distribution of the Blue bull using an extensive database on the current distribution of the Blue bull and selected 15 ecologically significant environmental variables. We used ten species distribution modeling algorithms available in the BIOMOD2 R package. Among the ten algorithms, the Random Forest, Maxent, and Generalized linear model had the highest mean true skill statistics scores, ensuring better model performance, and were considered for further analysis. We found that 22,462.57 km² (15.26%) of Nepal is suitable for the Blue bull. Slope, precipitation seasonality, and distance to the road are the environmental variables contributing the most to the distribution of Blue bull. Of the total predicted suitable habitats, 86% lies outside protected areas and 55% overlaps with agricultural land. Thus, we recommend that the future conservation initiatives including appropriate conflict mitigation measures should be prioritized equally in both protected areas and outside protected areas to ensure the species' survival in the region.

Macrosystem community change in lake phytoplankton and its implications for diversity and function

Aim

We use lake phytoplankton community data to quantify the spatio-temporal and scale-dependent impacts of eutrophication, land-use and climate change on species niches and community assembly processes while accounting for species traits and phylogenetic constraints.

Location

Finland.

Time period

1977-2017.

Major taxa

Phytoplankton.

Methods

We use hierarchical modelling of species communities (HMSC) to model metacommunity trajectories at 853 lakes over four decades of environmental change, including a hierarchical spatial structure to account for scale-dependent processes. Using a "region of common profile" approach, we evaluate compositional changes of species communities and trait profiles and investigate their temporal development.

Results

We demonstrate the emergence of novel and widespread community composition clusters in previously more compositionally homogeneous communities, with cluster-specific community trait profiles, indicating functional differences. A strong phylogenetic signal of species responses to the environment implies similar responses among closely related taxa. Community cluster-specific species prevalence indicates lower taxonomic dispersion within the current dominant clusters compared with the historically dominant cluster and an overall higher prevalence of smaller species sizes within communities. Our findings denote profound spatio-temporal structuring of species co-occurrence patterns and highlight functional differences of lake phytoplankton communities.

Main conclusions

Diverging community trajectories have led to a nationwide reshuffling of lake phytoplankton communities. At regional and national scales, lakes are not single entities but metacommunity hubs in an interconnected waterscape. The assembly mechanisms of phytoplankton communities are strongly structured by spatio-temporal dynamics, which have led to novel community types, but only a minor part of this reshuffling could be linked to temporal environmental change.

Applying landscape metrics to species distribution model predictions to characterize internal range structure and associated changes

Distributional shifts in species ranges provide critical evidence of ecological responses to climate change. Assessments of climate-driven changes typically focus on broad-scale range shifts (e.g. poleward or upward), with ecological consequences at regional and local scales commonly overlooked. While these changes are informative for species presenting continuous geographic ranges, many species have discontinuous distributions-both natural (e.g. mountain or coastal species) or human-induced (e.g. species inhabiting fragmented landscapes)-where within-range changes can be significant. Here, we use an ecosystem engineer species (Sabellaria alveolata) with a naturally fragmented distribution as a case study to assess climate-driven changes in within-range occupancy across its entire global distribution. To this end, we applied landscape ecology metrics to outputs from species distribution modelling (SDM) in a novel unified framework. SDM predicted a 27.5% overall increase in the area of potentially suitable habitat under RCP 4.5 by 2050, which taken in isolation would have led to the classification of the species as a climate change winner. SDM further revealed that the latitudinal range is predicted to shrink because of decreased habitat suitability in the equatorward part of the range, not compensated by a poleward expansion. The use of landscape ecology metrics provided additional insights by identifying regions that are predicted to become increasingly fragmented in the future, potentially increasing extirpation risk by jeopardising metapopulation dynamics. This increased range fragmentation could have dramatic consequences for ecosystem structure and functioning. Importantly, the proposed framework-which brings together SDM and landscape metrics-can be widely used to study currently overlooked climate-driven changes in species internal range structure, without requiring detailed empirical knowledge of the modelled species. This approach represents an important advancement beyond predictive envelope approaches and could reveal itself as paramount for managers whose spatial scale of action usually ranges from local to regional.

Association of Leopard Cat Occurrence with Environmental Factors in Chungnam Province, South Korea

This study was conducted to investigate the association of leopard cat (Prionailurus bengalensis) occurrences and environmental factors in Chungnam Province, South Korea, using two different analytical approaches for binomial responses: boosted regression trees and logistic regression. The extensive field survey data collected through the Chungnam Biotope Project were used to model construction and analysis. Five major influential factors identified by the boosted regression tree analysis were elevation, distance to road, distance to water channel/body, slope and population density. Logistic regression analysis indicated that distance to forest, population density, distance to water, and diameter class of the forest were the significant explanatory variables. The results showed that the leopard cats prefer the areas with higher accessibility of food resources (e.g., abundance and catchability) and avoid the areas adjacent to human-populated areas. The results also implied that boosted regression and logistic regression models could be used in a complementary manner for evaluating wildlife distribution and management.

Hyb-Seq provides new insights into the phylogeny and evolution of the Chrysanthemum zawadskii species complex in China

A species complex is an assemblage of closely related species with blurred boundaries, and from which species could arise from different speciation processes and/or a speciation continuum. Such a complex can provide an opportunity to investigate evolutionary mechanisms acting on speciation. The Chrysanthemum zawadskii species complex in China, a monophyletic group of Chrysanthemum, consists of seven species with considerable morphological variation, diverse habitats and different distribution patterns. Here, we used Hyb-Seq data to construct a well-resolved phylogeny of the C. zawadskii complex. Then, we performed comparative analyses of variation patterns in morphology, ecology and distribution to investigate the roles of geography and ecology in this complex's diversification. Lastly, we implemented divergence time estimation, species distribution modelling and ancestral area reconstruction to trace the evolutionary history of this complex. We concluded that the C. zawadskii complex originated in the Qinling-Daba mountains during the early Pliocene and then spread west and northward along the mountain ranges to northern China. During this process, geographical and ecological factors imposing different influences resulted in the current diversification and distribution patterns of this species complex, which is composed of both well-diverged species and diverging lineages on the path of speciation.

Estimating the Distribution of Japanese Encephalitis Vectors in Australia Using Ecological Niche Modelling

Recent Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreaks in southeastern Australia have sparked interest into epidemiological factors surrounding the virus' novel emergence in this region. Here, the geographic distribution of mosquito species known to be competent JEV vectors in the country was estimated by combining known mosquito occurrences and ecological drivers of distribution to reveal insights into communities at highest risk of infectious disease transmission. Species distribution models predicted that Culex annulirostris and Culex sitiens presence was mostly likely along Australia's eastern and northern coastline, while Culex quinquefasciatus presence was estimated to be most likely near inland regions of southern Australia as well as coastal regions of Western Australia. While Culex annulirostris is considered the dominant JEV vector in Australia, our ecological niche models emphasise the need for further entomological surveillance and JEV research within Australia.

Environmental Niche Modelling Predicts a Contraction in the Potential Distribution of Two Boreal Owl Species under Different Climate Scenarios

Studying current and future geographic distribution is essential for conserving endangered species such as the Boreal Owl and Eurasian Pygmy Owl. The main aim of this study was to determine the potential distribution of both species in the Balkan Peninsula by using spatial distribution models (SDMs) in MaxEnt. We used data from field surveys, the scientific and grey literature, and an online database. We considered the current time and two future periods, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. For future periods, we included different climate scenarios (SSP 126, 245, 370, and 585) in studying the potential geographic distribution of both species. We identified two types of potential future refugia for species: in situ and ex situ. Our study shows the highly suitable area for the Boreal Owl increased during the 2041-2060 period compared with the current area in all scenarios, except in SSP 585. However, during the 2061-2080 period, the highly suitable areas contracted. For the Eurasian Pygmy Owl, highly suitable areas decreased during 2041-2060, but during the 2061-2080 period, it was larger than the current area. Our study is of importance for conservation and preserving areas of potential distribution and refugia for Boreal and Eurasian Pygmy Owls in the face of climate change.

Detection of Toxoplasma gondii oocysts in soil and risk mapping in an island environment in the Northeast of Brazil

Toxoplasmosis is an emerging and re-emerging infectious disease that can be transmitted through a contaminated environment. Environmental contamination is an emergency health issue, and determining its occurrence is fundamental to a One Health approach. In this study, we addressed the extent of environmental contamination and viability of Toxoplasma gondii oocysts in soil in different environments on Fernando de Noronha Island, Brazil. In addition, we performed species distribution modelling to predict the environmental suitability for coccidia persistence in the studied area. Soil samples were collected in 14 neighbourhoods of the Island and in the four main squares, creating a total of 95 soil samples (five samples per site). The samples were analyzed by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique for the presence of the 18S ribosomal DNA gene of Apicomplexan protozoa, followed by genetic sequencing. We obtained 4.2% (4/95) positive soil samples with 100% similarity for T. gondii sequences. Two out of four positive sites on PCR showed viability of T. gondii oocysts through the mouse bioassay technique. As a result of the application of the species distribution modelling, environmental adequacy for the coccidia was observed throughout the Island. The results confirm the contamination of the soil in this insular environment by T. gondii oocysts and the environmental suitability by modelling application. These findings are an alert for the possibility of infection in animals and humans by contaminated soil, and for contamination of the maritime environment in addition to water resources for consumption by the local population.

Modelling the current and future potential distribution of the bean bug Riptortus pedestris with increasingly serious damage to soybean

BACKGROUND

The bean bug, Riptortus pedestris, has received intense attention in recent years because of its involvement in increasing outbreaks of staygreen syndrome in soybean (Glycine max (L.)), often causing almost 100% loss of soybean yield in China. However, for this pest of great economic importance, potential current and future distribution patterns and their underlying driving factors remain unclear.

RESULTS

Maxent modelling under climate, elevation and land-use (including the distribution information of G. max) variables showed that the current potential distribution covered a vast geographic range, primarily including most parts of south, South East and east Asia. Under future environmental scenarios, suitable habitat expanded markedly. Areas that would become highly suitable for R. pedestris were primarily located in north-east China and west India. Five bioclimatic (BIO13, BIO08, BIO18, BIO02 and BIO07) and one land-use (C3 annual crops) predictors contributed approximately 95% to the modelling, and analyses of curve responses showed that to a certain extent, R. pedestris preferred relatively high temperature and precipitation. Our results indicate that a high risk of R. pedestris outbreaks is present in parts of Asia, especially in the soybean-growing regions of China, and this risk will continue in the future.

CONCLUSION

The predicted distribution pattern and key regulating factors identified herein could provide a vital reference for developing pest management policies and further alleviate the incidence of staygreen syndrome in soybean. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Current breeding distributions and predicted range shifts under climate change in two subspecies of Black-tailed Godwits in Asia

Habitat loss and shifts associated with climate change threaten global biodiversity, with impacts likely to be most pronounced at high latitudes. With the disappearance of the tundra breeding habitats, migratory shorebirds that breed at these high latitudes are likely to be even more vulnerable to climate change than those in temperate regions. We examined this idea using new distributional information on two subspecies of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa in Asia: the northerly, bog-breeding L. l. bohaii and the more southerly, steppe-breeding L. l. melanuroides. Based on breeding locations of tagged and molecularly assayed birds, we modelled the current breeding distributions of the two subspecies with species distribution models, tested those models for robustness and then used them to predict climatically suitable breeding ranges in 2070 according to bioclimatic variables and different climate change scenarios. Our models were robust and showed that climate change is expected to push bohaii into the northern rim of the Eurasian continent. Melanuroides is also expected to shift northward, stopping in the Yablonovyy and Stanovoy Ranges, and breeding elevation is expected to increase. Climatically suitable breeding habitat ranges would shrink to 16% and 11% of the currently estimated ranges of bohaii and melanuroides, respectively. Overall, this study provides the first predictions for the future distributions of two little-known Black-tailed Godwit subspecies and highlights the importance of factoring in shifts in bird distribution when designing climate-proof conservation strategies.

Understanding climate change impacts on biome and plant distributions in the Andes: Challenges and opportunities

AIM

Climate change is expected to impact mountain biodiversity by shifting species ranges and the biomes they shape. The extent and regional variation in these impacts are still poorly understood, particularly in the highly biodiverse Andes. Regional syntheses of climate change impacts on vegetation are pivotal to identify and guide research priorities. Here we review current data, knowledge and uncertainties in past, present and future climate change impacts on vegetation in the Andes. Location: Andes. Taxon: Plants.

METHODS

We (i) conducted a literature review on Andean vegetation responses to past and contemporary climatic change, (ii) analysed future climate projections for different elevations and slope orientations at 19 Andean locations using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, and (iii) calculated changes in the suitable climate envelope area of Andean biomes and compared these results to studies that used species distribution models.

RESULTS

Future climatic changes (2040-2070) are projected to be stronger at high-elevation areas in the tropical Andes (up to 4°C under RCP 8.5), while in the temperate Andes temperature increases are projected to be up to 2°C. Under this worst-case scenario, temperate deciduous forests and the grasslands/steppes from the Central and Southern Andes are predicted to show the greatest losses of suitable climatic space (30% and 17%-23%, respectively). The high vulnerability of these biomes contrasts with the low attention from researchers modelling Andean species distributions. Critical knowledge gaps include a lack of an Andean wide plant checklist, insufficient density of weather stations at high-elevation areas, a lack of high-resolution climatologies that accommodates the Andes' complex topography and climatic processes, insufficient data to model demographic and ecological processes, and low use of palaeo data for distribution modelling.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Climate change is likely to profoundly affect the extent and composition of Andean biomes. Temperate Andean biomes in particular are susceptible to substantial area contractions. There are, however, considerable challenges and uncertainties in modelling species and biome responses and a pressing need for a region-wide approach to address knowledge gaps and improve understanding and monitoring of climate change impacts in these globally important biomes.

Australian Bryobia mites (Trombidiformes: Tetranychidae) form a complex of cryptic taxa with unique climatic niches and insecticide responses

BACKGROUND

Bryobia (Koch) mites belong to the economically important spider mite family, the Tetranychidae, with >130 species described worldwide. Due to taxonomic difficulties and most species being asexual, species identification relies heavily on genetic markers. Multiple putative Bryobia mite species have been identified attacking pastures and grain crops in Australia. In this study, we collected 79 field populations of Bryobia mites and combined these with 134 populations that were collected previously. We characterised taxonomic variation of mites using 28S rDNA amplicon-based DNA metabarcoding using next-generation sequencing approaches and direct Sanger sequencing. We then undertook species distribution modelling of the main genetic lineages and examined the chemical responses of multiple field populations.

RESULTS

We identified 47 unique haplotypes across all mites sampled that grouped into four distinct genetic lineages. These lineages have different distributions, with three of the four putative lineages showing different climatic envelopes, as inferred from species distribution modelling. Bryobia mite populations also showed different responses to a widely used insecticide (the organophosphate, omethoate), but not to another chemical (the pyrethroid, bifenthrin) when examined using laboratory bioassays.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that cryptic diversity is likely to complicate the formulation of management strategies for Bryobia mites. Although focussed on Australia, this study demonstrates the challenges of studying Bryobia and highlights the importance of further research into this complex group of mites across the world. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Sampling and modelling rare species: Conceptual guidelines for the neglected majority

Biodiversity conservation faces a methodological conundrum: Biodiversity measurement often relies on species, most of which are rare at various scales, especially prone to extinction under global change, but also the most challenging to sample and model. Predicting the distribution change of rare species using conventional species distribution models is challenging because rare species are hardly captured by most survey systems. When enough data are available, predictions are usually spatially biased towards locations where the species is most likely to occur, violating the assumptions of many modelling frameworks. Workflows to predict and eventually map rare species distributions imply important trade-offs between data quantity, quality, representativeness and model complexity that need to be considered prior to survey and analysis. Our opinion is that study designs need to carefully integrate the different steps, from species sampling to modelling, in accordance with the different types of rarity and available data in order to improve our capacity for sound assessment and prediction of rare species distribution. In this article, we summarize and comment on how different categories of species rarity lead to different types of occurrence and distribution data depending on choices made during the survey process, namely the spatial distribution of samples (where to sample) and the sampling protocol in each selected location (how to sample). We then clarify which species distribution models are suitable depending on the different types of distribution data (how to model). Among others, for most rarity forms, we highlight the insights from systematic species-targeted sampling coupled with hierarchical models that allow correcting for overdispersion and spatial and sampling sources of bias. Our article provides scientists and practitioners with a much-needed guide through the ever-increasing diversity of methodological developments to improve the prediction of rare species distribution depending on rarity type and available data.

Stability in the South, Turbulence Toward the North: Evolutionary History of Aurinia saxatilis (Brassicaceae) Revealed by Phylogenomic and Climatic Modelling Data

The Balkan Peninsula played an important role in the evolution of many Mediterranean plants and served as a major source for post-Pleistocene colonisation of central and northern Europe. Its complex geo-climatic history and environmental heterogeneity significantly influenced spatiotemporal diversification and resulted in intricate phylogeographic patterns. To explore the evolutionary dynamics and phylogeographic patterns within the widespread eastern Mediterranean and central European species Aurinia saxatilis, we used a combination of phylogenomic (restriction-site associated DNA sequencing, RADseq) and phylogenetic (sequences of the plastid marker ndhF) data as well as species distribution models generated for the present and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The inferred phylogenies retrieved three main geographically distinct lineages. The southern lineage is restricted to the eastern Mediterranean, where it is distributed throughout the Aegean area, the southern Balkan Peninsula, and the southern Apennine Peninsula, and corresponds to the species main distribution area during the LGM. The eastern lineage extends from the eastern Balkan Peninsula over the Carpathians to central Europe, while the central lineage occupies the central Balkan Peninsula. Molecular dating places the divergence among all the three lineages to the early to middle Pleistocene, indicating their long-term independent evolutionary trajectories. Our data revealed an early divergence and stable in situ persistence of the southernmost, eastern Mediterranean lineage, whereas the mainland, south-east European lineages experienced more complex and turbulent evolutionary dynamics triggered by Pleistocene climatic oscillations. Our data also support the existence of multiple glacial refugia in southeast Europe and highlight the central Balkan Peninsula not only as a cradle of lineage diversifications but also as a source of lineage dispersal. Finally, the extant genetic variation within A. saxatilis is congruent with the taxonomic separation of peripatric A. saxatilis subsp. saxatilis and A. saxatilis subsp. orientalis, whereas the taxonomic status of A. saxatilis subsp. megalocarpa remains doubtful.

Ice matters: Life-history strategies of two Antarctic seals dictate climate change eventualities in the Weddell Sea

The impacts of climate change in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are not uniform and ice-obligate species with dissimilar life-history characteristics will likely respond differently to their changing ecosystems. We use a unique data set of Weddell Leptonychotes weddellii and crabeater seals' (CESs) Lobodon carcinophaga breeding season distribution in the Weddell Sea, determined from satellite imagery. We contrast the theoretical climate impacts on both ice-obligate predators who differ in life-history characteristics: CESs are highly specialized Antarctic krill Euphausia superba predators and breed in the seasonal pack ice; Weddell seals (WESs) are generalist predators and breed on comparatively stable fast ice. We used presence-absence data and a suite of remotely sensed environmental variables to build habitat models. Each of the environmental predictors is multiplied by a 'climate change score' based on known responses to climate change to create a 'change importance product'. Results show CESs are more sensitive to climate change than WESs. Crabeater seals prefer to breed close to krill, and the compounding effects of changing sea ice concentrations and sea surface temperatures, the proximity to krill and abundance of stable breeding ice, can influence their post-breeding foraging success and ultimately their future breeding success. But in contrast to the Ross Sea, here WESs prefer to breed closer to larger colonies of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri). This suggests that the Weddell Sea may currently be prey-abundant, allowing the only two air-breathing Antarctic silverfish predators (Pleuragramma antarctica) (WESs and emperor penguins) to breed closer to each other. This is the first basin-scale, region-specific comparison of breeding season habitat in these two key Antarctic predators based on real-world data to compare climate change responses. This work shows that broad-brush, basin-scale approaches to understanding species-specific responses to climate change are not always appropriate, and regional models are needed-especially when designing marine protected areas.

Improving predictions of invasive fish ranges combining functional and ecological traits with environmental suitability under climate change scenarios

Biological invasions represent one of the main threats to marine biodiversity. From a conservation perspective, especially in the context of increasing sea warming, it is critical to examine the suitability potential of geographical areas for the arrival of Range-Expanding Introduced and Native Species (REINS), and hence anticipate the risk of such species to become invasive in their new distribution areas. Here, we developed an empirical index, based on functional and bio-ecological traits, that estimates the Invasive Potential (IP; i.e. the potential success in transport, introduction and population establishment) for a set of 13 fishes that are expanding their distributional range into the Mediterranean Sea, the most invaded sea in the world. The IP index showed significant correlation with the observed spreading of REINS. For the six species characterized by the highest IP, we calculated contemporary and future projections of their Environmental Suitability Index (ESI). By using an ensemble modelling approach, we estimated the geographical areas that are likely to be the most impacted by REINS spreading under climate change. Our results demonstrated the importance of functional traits related to reproduction for determining high invasion potential. For most species, we found high contemporary ESI values in the South-eastern Mediterranean Sea and low to intermediate contemporary ESI values in the Adriatic Sea and North-western Mediterranean sector. Moreover, we highlighted a major potential future expansion of high ESI values, and thus REINS IP, towards the northern Mediterranean, especially in the northern Adriatic Sea. This potential future northward expansion highlights the risk associated with climate-induced impacts on ecosystem conservation and fish stock management throughout the entire Mediterranean Sea.

The Ant-like Tachydromia Complex in the Iberian Peninsula-Insights from Habitat Suitability Modelling for the Conservation of an Endemism (Diptera: Hybotidae)

Simple Summary

The ant-like flies are a group of nine species of flightless Tachydromia, with their distribution restricted to the Iberian Peninsula. Severe knowledge gaps regarding their distribution and ecological requirements hinder conservation assessments. To improve this scenario, an ensemble of 9 different species distribution models was applied to unveil habitat suitability and to provide guidelines for future studies. The most important factors influencing habitat suitability are climate-related, followed by forest type and structure, with well-defined biogeographic gradients. T. lusitanica and T. ebejeri are adapted to the mild temperature and high-humidity environments, typical of the Temperate–Eurosiberian life zone. T. semiaptera and T. iberica are adapted to progressively drier and hotter central and southern parts of the Iberian Peninsula, connected to transitional Temperate–submediterranean areas. Ant-like flies’ distribution overlaps with deciduous/ marcescent oak species, which can effectively indicate their presence in Iberia. Additionally, southern marcescent forests emerge as “islands” with particular interest for future fieldwork. Ant-like flies are threatened by several factors such as climate change and habitat destruction, including urbanization and forest fires. This study provides vital tools to better assess the ant-like flies’ conservation status and to manage their habitat.

Abstract

Ant-like flies comprise nine Iberian endemic species of flightless Tachydromia. Severe knowledge gaps on distribution and ecological requirements hinder conservation assessments. Species distribution models were applied to unveil habitat suitability and to provide guidelines for future studies. An ensemble modeling approach combining ten different techniques was implemented with the biomod2 package. Occurrence data was partitioned into six sets, including two multi-species groups and four species. The most relevant drivers of habitat suitability are climate-related, followed by forest type and structure, according to well-defined biogeographic gradients. T. lusitanica and T. ebejeri are adapted to mild temperatures and high-humidity environments. Their distribution is connected to the Temperate–Eurosiberian life zone. T. semiaptera and T. iberica are adapted to progressively drier and hotter central and southern parts of the Iberian Peninsula, connected to transitional Temperate–submediterranean areas. Ant-like fly’ ranges overlap with deciduous/marcescent oak species, acting as suitable indicators of their presence in Iberia. Southern marcescent forests emerge as “islands” with particular interest for future prospections. Ant-like flies are threatened by several factors such as climate change and habitat destruction, including urbanization and forest fires. This study provides vital tools to better assess the ant-like flies’ conservation status and to manage their habitat.

Unexpected post-glacial colonisation route explains the white colour of barn owls (Tyto alba) from the British Isles

The climate fluctuations of the Quaternary shaped the movement of species in and out of glacial refugia. In Europe, the majority of species followed one of the described traditional postglacial recolonization routes from the southern peninsulas towards the north. Like most organisms, barn owls are assumed to have colonized the British Isles by crossing over Doggerland, a land bridge that connected Britain to northern Europe. However, while they are dark rufous in northern Europe, barn owls in the British Isles are conspicuously white, a contrast that could suggest selective forces are at play on the islands. Yet, our analysis of known candidate genes involved in coloration found no signature of selection. Instead, using whole genome sequences and species distribution modelling, we found that owls colonised the British Isles soon after the last glaciation, directly from a white coloured refugium in the Iberian Peninsula, before colonising northern Europe. They would have followed a hitherto unknown post‐glacial colonization route to the Isles over a westwards path of suitable habitat in now submerged land in the Bay of Biscay, thus not crossing Doggerland. As such, they inherited the white colour of their Iberian founders and maintained it through low gene flow with the mainland that prevents the import of rufous alleles. Thus, we contend that neutral processes probably explain this contrasting white colour compared to continental owls. With the barn owl being a top predator, we expect future research will show this unanticipated route was used by other species from its paleo community.

History or demography? Determining the drivers of genetic variation in North American plants

Understanding the impact of historical and demographic processes on genetic variation is essential for devising conservation strategies and predicting responses to climate change. Recolonization after Pleistocene glaciations is expected to leave distinct genetic signatures, characterised by lower genetic diversity in previously glaciated regions. Populations’ positions within species ranges also shape genetic variation, following the central‐marginal paradigm dictating that peripheral populations are depauperate, sparse and isolated. However, the general applicability of these patterns and relative importance of historical and demographic factors remains unknown. Here, we analysed the distribution of genetic variation in 91 native species of North American plants by coupling microsatellite data and species distribution modelling. We tested the contributions of historical climatic shifts and the central‐marginal hypothesis on genetic diversity and structure on the whole data set and across subsets based on taxonomic groups and growth forms. Decreased diversity was found with increased distance from potential glacial refugia, coinciding with the expected make‐up of postglacially colonised localities. At the range periphery, lower genetic diversity, higher inbreeding levels and genetic differentiation were reported, following the assumptions of the central‐marginal hypothesis. History and demography were found to have approximately equal importance in shaping genetic variation.

Niche divergence contributes to geographical parthenogenesis in two dandelion taxa

Many sexual-asexual complexes show a distinct pattern where the asexuals have larger and more northerly ranges than closely related sexuals. A prime candidate to explain this so-called "geographical parthenogenesis" is ecological niche divergence between the sexuals and asexuals. Modern niche modelling techniques allow testing niche divergence by directly comparing the niches of sexuals and asexuals. In this study, I use such techniques to perform range-wide tests of whether nine bioclimatic variables, including annual mean temperature and annual precipitation, contribute to geographical parthenogenesis in two dandelion taxa: Taraxacum section Ruderalia and Taraxacum section Erythrosperma, which are both comprised of sexual diploids and asexual triploids. For both sections, I found evidence of niche divergence, though the exact nature of this divergence was different for the two sections. In section Ruderalia, the sexuals preferred warmer and wetter conditions, whereas in section Erythrosperma, the sexuals preferred dryer conditions. Using Species Distribution Modelling, consistent differences between the sexuals and asexuals were found when looking at the niche determinants: the variables that are most important for modelling the distribution. Furthermore, and in contrast with theoretical expectations that predict that the sexuals should have a wider niche, in section Erythrosperma the asexuals were found to have a wider niche than the sexuals. In conclusion, differences in niche optima, niche determinants, and niche width all contribute to the pattern of geographical parthenogenesis of these two dandelion taxa. However, the results also indicate that the exact causation of geographical parthenogenesis is not uniform across taxa.

Improving the reliability of eDNA data interpretation

Global declines in biodiversity highlight the need to effectively monitor the density and distribution of threatened species. In recent years, molecular survey methods detecting DNA released by target-species into their environment (eDNA) have been rapidly on the rise. Despite providing new, cost-effective tools for conservation, eDNA-based methods are prone to errors. Best field and laboratory practices can mitigate some, but the risks of errors cannot be eliminated and need to be accounted for. Here, we synthesize recent advances in data processing tools that increase the reliability of interpretations drawn from eDNA data. We review advances in occupancy models to consider spatial data-structures and simultaneously assess rates of false positive and negative results. Further, we introduce process-based models and the integration of metabarcoding data as complementing approaches to increase the reliability of target-species assessments. These tools will be most effective when capitalizing on multi-source data sets collating eDNA with classical survey and citizen-science approaches, paving the way for more robust decision-making processes in conservation planning.

Towards Conservation of the Remarkably High Number of Daisy Trees (Asteraceae) in Mexico

Mexico is floristically the fourth most species-rich country in the world, and Asteraceae is the most diverse vascular plant family in this country. The species exhibits a wide range of growth forms, but the tree-like habit, appropriately named daisy trees, is heavily underestimated, even though slightly different tree definitions are handled. Very little is known about their precise species number or conservation status in Mexico, so we update here the list of known Mexican daisy tree species, summarize their very diverse uses, present a general panorama of their present and future distribution, and discuss their conservation status. A bibliographic review and herbarium study were carried out, carefully curated taxonomical ocurrence maps were prepared for each species, and a climatic suitability modelling approach was used to characterise the spatial patterns of Mexican Asteraceae trees. With 149 daisy tree species, the country ranks second at a global level; within the country, their greatest diversity is found in central and western Mexico. A decrease in diversity is estimated in areas that currently host the highest species richness, whereas the hotspot regions are estimated to show an increase in species diversity, so climate change is not a threat to all Mexican daisy tree species.

Nested Species Distribution Models of Chlamydiales in Ixodes ricinus (Tick) Hosts in Switzerland

The tick Ixodes ricinus is the vector of various pathogens, including Chlamydiales bacteria, which potentially cause respiratory infections. In this study, we modeled the spatial distribution of I. ricinus and associated Chlamydiales over Switzerland from 2009 to 2019. We used a total of 2,293 ticks and 186 Chlamydiales occurrences provided by a Swiss Army field campaign, a collaborative smartphone application, and a prospective campaign. For each tick location, we retrieved from Swiss federal data sets the environmental factors reflecting the topography, climate, and land cover. We then used the Maxent modeling technique to estimate the suitability of particular areas for I. ricinus and to subsequently build the nested niche of Chlamydiales bacteria. Results indicate that I. ricinus habitat suitability is determined by higher temperature and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values, lower temperature during the driest months, and a higher percentage of artificial and forest areas. The performance of the model was improved when extracting the environmental variables for a 100-m radius buffer around the sampling points and when considering the climatic conditions of the 2 years previous to the sampling date. Chlamydiales bacteria were favored by a lower percentage of artificial surfaces, drier conditions, high precipitation during the coldest months, and short distances to wetlands. From 2009 to 2018, we observed an extension of areas suitable to ticks and Chlamydiales, associated with a shift toward higher altitude. The importance of considering spatiotemporal variations in the environmental conditions for obtaining better prediction was also demonstrated.IMPORTANCEIxodes ricinus is the vector of pathogens including the agent of Lyme disease, the tick-borne encephalitis virus, and the less well-known Chlamydiales bacteria, which are responsible for certain respiratory infections. In this study, we identified the environmental factors influencing the presence of I. ricinus and Chlamydiales in Switzerland and generated maps of their distribution from 2009 to 2018. We found an important expansion of suitable areas for both the tick and the bacteria during the last decade. Results also provided the environmental factors that determine the presence of Chlamydiales within ticks. Distribution maps as generated here are expected to bring valuable information for decision makers in controlling tick-borne diseases in Switzerland and establishing prevention campaigns. The methodological framework presented could be used to predict the distribution and spread of other host-pathogen pairs to identify environmental factors driving their distribution and to develop control or prevention strategies accordingly.

A Review of Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee Cultivation and Mycotoxigenic Fungi

Coffee is one of the most traded commodities in the world. It plays a significant role in the global economy, employing over 125 million people. However, it is possible that this vital crop is threatened by changing climate conditions and fungal infections. This paper reviews how suitable areas for coffee cultivation and the toxigenic fungi species of Aspergillus, Penicillium, and Fusarium will be affected due to climate change. By combining climate models with species distribution models, a number of studies have investigated the future distribution of coffee cultivation. Studies predict that suitable coffee cultivation area could drop by ~50% under representation concentration pathway (RCP) 6.0 by 2050 for both Arabica and Robusta. These findings agree with other studies which also see an altitudinal migration of suitable cultivation areas to cooler regions, but limited scope for latitudinal migration owing to coffee's inability to tolerate seasonal temperature changes. Increased temperatures will see an overall increase in mycotoxin production such as aflatoxins, particularly in mycotoxigenic fungi (e.g., Aspergillus flavus) more suited to higher temperatures. Arabica and Robusta's limited ability to relocate means both species will be grown in less suitable climates, increasing plant stress and making coffee more susceptible to fungal infection and mycotoxins. Information regarding climate change parameters with respect to mycotoxin concentrations in real coffee samples is provided and how the changed climate affects mycotoxins in non-coffee systems is discussed. In a few areas where relocating farms is possible, mycotoxin contamination may decrease due to the "parasites lost" phenomenon. More research is needed to include the effect of mycotoxins on coffee under various climate change scenarios, as currently there is a significant knowledge gap, and only generalisations can be made. Future modelling of coffee cultivation, which includes the influence of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilisation and forest management, is also required; however, all indications show that climate change will have an extremely negative effect on future coffee production worldwide in terms of both a loss of suitable cultivation areas and an increase in mycotoxin contamination.

Integrating Multiple Lines of Evidence to Explore Intraspecific Variability in a Rare Endemic Alpine Plant and Implications for Its Conservation

We studied the ecology, distribution, and phylogeography of Tephroseris balbisiana, a rare plant whose range is centered to the South-Western Alps. Our aim was to assess the extent of intraspecific variability within the nominal species and the conservation status of isolated populations. We studied genetic diversity across the whole species range. We analyzed leaf traits, which are distinctive morphological characters within the Tephroseris genus. A clear pattern of genetic variation was found among populations of T. balbisiana, which clustered according to their geographic position. On the contrary, there was a strong overlap in the morphological space of individuals across the species' range, with few peripheral populations diverging in their leaf morphology. Studying habitat suitability by means of species distribution models, we observed that T. balbisiana range is primarily explained by solar radiation and precipitation seasonality. Environmental requirements could explain the genetic and morphological uniformity of T. balbisiana in its core distribution area and justify genetic, morphological, and ecological divergences found among the isolated populations of the Apennines. Our findings emphasize the need to account for the whole diversity of a species, comprising peripheral populations, in order to better estimate its status and to prioritize areas for its conservation.

An operational definition of the biome for global change research

Biomes are constructs for organising knowledge on the structure and functioning of the world's ecosystems, and serve as useful units for monitoring how the biosphere responds to anthropogenic drivers, including climate change. The current practice of delimiting biomes relies on expert knowledge. Recent studies have questioned the value of such biome maps for comparative ecology and global-change research, partly due to their subjective origin. Here we propose a flexible method for developing biome maps objectively. The method uses range modelling of several thousands of plant species to reveal spatial attractors for different growth-form assemblages that define biomes. The workflow is illustrated using distribution data from 23 500 African plant species. In an example application, we create a biome map for Africa and use the fitted species models to project biome shifts. In a second example, we map gradients of growth-form suitability that can be used to identify sites for comparative ecology. This method provides a flexible framework that (1) allows a range of biome types to be defined according to user needs and (2) enables projections of biome changes that emerge purely from the individualistic responses of plant species to environmental changes.

Landscape does matter: Disentangling founder effects from natural and human-aided post-introduction dispersal during an ongoing biological invasion

Environmental features impacting the spread of invasive species after introduction can be assessed using population genetic structure as a quantitative estimation of effective dispersal at the landscape scale. However, in the case of an ongoing biological invasion, deciphering whether genetic structure represents landscape connectivity or founder effects is particularly challenging. We examined the modes of dispersal (natural and human-aided) and the factors (landscape or founders history) shaping genetic structure in range edge invasive populations of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, in the region of Grenoble (Southeast France). Based on detailed occupancy-detection data and environmental variables (climatic, topographic and land-cover), we modelled A. albopictus potential suitable area and its expansion history since first introduction. The relative role of dispersal modes was estimated using biological dispersal capabilities and landscape genetics approaches using genome-wide SNP dataset. We demonstrate that both natural and human-aided dispersal have promoted the expansion of populations. Populations in diffuse urban areas, representing highly suitable habitat for A. albopictus, tend to disperse less, while roads facilitate long-distance dispersal. Yet, demographic bottlenecks during introduction played a major role in shaping the genetic variability of these range edge populations. The present study is one of the few investigating the role of founder effects and ongoing expansion processes in shaping spatial patterns of genetic variation in an invasive species at the landscape scale. The combination of several dispersal modes and large proportions of continuous suitable habitats for A. albopictus promoted range filling of almost its entire potential distribution in the region of Grenoble only few years after introduction.

Modelling the climatic suitability of Chagas disease vectors on a global scale

The Triatominae are vectors for Trypanosoma cruzi, the aetiological agent of the neglected tropical Chagas disease. Their distribution stretches across Latin America, with some species occurring outside of the Americas. In particular, the cosmopolitan vector, Triatoma rubrofasciata, has already been detected in many Asian and African countries. We applied an ensemble forecasting niche modelling approach to project the climatic suitability of 11 triatomine species under current climate conditions on a global scale. Our results revealed potential hotspots of triatomine species diversity in tropical and subtropical regions between 21°N and 24°S latitude. We also determined the climatic suitability of two temperate species (T. infestans, T. sordida) in Europe, western Australia and New Zealand. Triatoma rubrofasciata has been projected to find climatically suitable conditions in large parts of coastal areas throughout Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia, emphasising the importance of an international vector surveillance program in these regions.

Inclusion of trophic interactions increases the vulnerability of an alpine butterfly species to climate change

Climate change is expected to have significant and complex impacts on ecological communities. In addition to direct effects of climate on species, there can also be indirect effects through an intermediary species, such as in host-plant interactions. Indirect effects are expected to be more pronounced in alpine environments because these ecosystems are sensitive to temperature changes and there are limited areas for migration of both species (i.e. closed systems), and because of simpler trophic interactions. We tested the hypothesis that climate change will reduce the range of an alpine butterfly (Parnassius smintheus) because of indirect effects through its host plant (Sedum sp.). To test for direct and indirect effects, we used the simulations of climate change to assess the distribution of P. smintheus with and without Sedum sp. We also compared the projected ranges of P. smintheus to four other butterfly species that are found in the alpine, but that are generalists feeding on many plant genera. We found that P. smintheus gained distributional area in climate-only models, but these gains were significantly reduced with the inclusion of Sedum sp. and in dry-climate scenarios which resulted in a reduction in net area. When compared to the more generalist butterfly species, P. smintheus exhibited the largest loss in suitable habitat. Our findings support the importance of including indirect effects in modelling species distributions in response to climate change. We highlight the potentially large and still neglected impacts climate change can have on the trophic structure of communities, which can lead to significant losses of biodiversity. In the future, communities will continue to favour species that are generalists as climate change induces asynchronies in the migration of species.

The climatic association of population divergence and future extinction risk of Solanum pimpinellifolium

Under intraspecific differentiation driven by differential climatic adaptation, it may be expected that intraspecific genetic groups occur at distinct environments. Populations occupying different niches may therefore differ in their ability to cope with climate change. Here, we addressed this hypothesis with a wild tomato, Solanum pimpinellifolium. This species is distributed from the west side of Andes to the coastal region in Peru and Ecuador and occupies a wide environmental diversity. This environmental diversity is related to the genetic structure of the species providing an ideal material to investigate the isolation by environment hypothesis. While previous hypothesis stated that S. pimpinellifolium originated from northern Peru and migrated northwards and southwards, our results support that S. pimpinellifolium originated from Ecuador and expanded to northern and southern Peru, and during this process, the niche space of S. pimpinellifolium became more associated with cold and drought. We further predicted its fate under anthropogenic climate change. According to our predictions, the northern group will maintain its current extent or even expand to the entire western region of Ecuador. In contrast, we predicted low habitat suitability for the southern group which could potentially lead to the shrinkage of its distribution. In conclusion, we revealed the distinct fates among the differentiated populations driven by environment under global warming conditions.

Population modelling and genetics of a critically endangered Madagascan palm Tahina spectabilis

Madagascar is home to 208 indigenous palm species, almost all of them endemic and >80% of which are endangered. We undertook complete population census and sampling for genetic analysis of a relatively recently discovered giant fan palm, the Critically Endangered Tahina spectablis in 2008 and 2016. Our 2016 study included newly discovered populations and added to our genetic study. We incorporated these new populations into species distribution niche model (SDM) and projected these onto maps of the region. We developed population matrix models based on observed demographic data to model population change and predict the species vulnerability to extinction by undertaking population viability analysis (PVA). We investigated the potential conservation value of reintroduced planted populations within the species potential suitable habitat. We found that the population studied in 2008 had grown in size due to seedling regeneration but had declined in the number of reproductively mature plants, and we were able to estimate that the species reproduces and dies after approximately 70 years. Our models suggest that if the habitat where it resides continues to be protected the species is unlikely to go extinct due to inherent population decline and that it will likely experience significant population growth after approximately 80 years due to the reproductive and life cycle attributes of the species. The newly discovered populations contain more genetic diversity than the first discovered southern population which is genetically depauperate. The species appears to demonstrate a pattern of dispersal leading to isolated founder plants which may eventually lead to population development depending on local establishment opportunities. The conservation efforts currently put in place including the reintroduction of plants within the species potential suitable habitat if maintained are thought likely to enable the species to sustain itself but it remains vulnerable to anthropogenic impacts.

Joint species distribution modelling with the r-package Hmsc

Joint Species Distribution Modelling (JSDM) is becoming an increasingly popular statistical method for analysing data in community ecology. Hierarchical Modelling of Species Communities (HMSC) is a general and flexible framework for fitting JSDMs. HMSC allows the integration of community ecology data with data on environmental covariates, species traits, phylogenetic relationships and the spatio-temporal context of the study, providing predictive insights into community assembly processes from non-manipulative observational data of species communities.The full range of functionality of HMSC has remained restricted to Matlab users only. To make HMSC accessible to the wider community of ecologists, we introduce Hmsc 3.0, a user-friendly r implementation.We illustrate the use of the package by applying Hmsc 3.0 to a range of case studies on real and simulated data. The real data consist of bird counts in a spatio-temporally structured dataset, environmental covariates, species traits and phylogenetic relationships. Vignettes on simulated data involve single-species models, models of small communities, models of large species communities and models for large spatial data. We demonstrate the estimation of species responses to environmental covariates and how these depend on species traits, as well as the estimation of residual species associations. We demonstrate how to construct and fit models with different types of random effects, how to examine MCMC convergence, how to examine the explanatory and predictive powers of the models, how to assess parameter estimates and how to make predictions. We further demonstrate how Hmsc 3.0 can be applied to normally distributed data, count data and presence-absence data.The package, along with the extended vignettes, makes JSDM fitting and post-processing easily accessible to ecologists familiar with r.

Cold spot microrefugia hold the key to survival for Brazil's Critically Endangered Araucaria tree

Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th-century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st-century climate change constitutes a new-but so far unevaluated-threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high-resolution topography and fine-scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso- and microclimate scales. We show that climate-only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th-century destruction is evident-more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation-and 21st-century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.

Anthropocene refugia: integrating history and predictive modelling to assess the space available for biodiversity in a human-dominated world

During periods of strong environmental change, some areas may serve as refugia, where components of biodiversity can find protection, persist and potentially expand from should conditions again become favourable. The refugia concept has previously been used in the context of climatic change, to describe climatically stable areas in which taxa survived past Quaternary glacial-interglacial oscillations, or where they might persist in the future under anthropogenic climate change. However, with the recognition that Earth has entered the Anthropocene, an era in which human activities are the dominant driving force on ecosystems, it is critical to also consider human pressures on the environment as factors limiting species distributions. Here, we present a novel concept, Anthropocene refugia, to refer to areas that provide spatial and temporal protection from human activities and that will remain suitable for a given taxonomic unit in the long-term. It integrates a deep-time perspective on species biogeography that provides information on the natural rather than current-day relictual distribution of species, with spatial information on modern and future anthropogenic threats. We define the concept and propose a methodology to effectively identify and map realized and potential current and future refugia, using examples for two megafaunal species as a proof of concept. We argue that identifying Anthropocene refugia will improve biodiversity conservation and restoration by allowing better prediction of key areas for conservation and potential for re-expansions today and in the future. More generally, it forms a new conceptual framework to assess and manage the impact of anthropogenic activities on past, current and future patterns of species distributions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'