Global indicators of the environmental impacts of invasive alien species and their information adequacy

Monitoring the extent to which invasive alien species (IAS) negatively impact the environment is crucial for understanding and mitigating biological invasions. Indeed, such information is vital for achieving Target 6 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. However, to-date indicators for tracking the environmental impacts of IAS have been either lacking or insufficient. Capitalizing on advances in data availability and impact assessment protocols, we developed environmental impact indicators to track realized and potential impacts of IAS. We also developed an information status indicator to assess the adequacy of the data underlying the impact indicators. We used data on 75 naturalized amphibians from 82 countries to demonstrate the indicators at a global scale. The information status indicator shows variation in the reliability of the data and highlights areas where absence of impact should be interpreted with caution. Impact indicators show that growth in potential impacts are dominated by predatory species, while potential impacts from both predation and disease transmission are distributed worldwide. Using open access data, the indicators are reproducible and adaptable across scales and taxa and can be used to assess global trends and distributions of IAS, assisting authorities in prioritizing control efforts and identifying areas at risk of future invasions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Testing the Tropical Niche Conservatism Hypothesis: Climatic Niche Evolution of Escallonia Mutis ex L. F. (Escalloniaceae)

We assess the Tropical Niche Conservatism Hypothesis in the genus Escallonia in South America using phylogeny, paleoclimate estimation and current niche modelling. We tested four predictions: (1) the climatic condition where the ancestor of Escallonia grew is megathermal; (2) the temperate niche is a derived condition from tropical clades; (3) the most closely related species have a similar current climate niche (conservation of the phylogenetic niche); and (4) there is a range expansion from the northern Andes to high latitudes during warm times. Our phylogenetic hypothesis shows that Escallonia originated 52.17 ± 0.85 My, in the early Eocene, with an annual mean temperature of 13.8 °C and annual precipitation of 1081 mm, corresponding to a microthermal to mesothermal climate; the species of the northern and central tropical Andes would be the ancestral ones, and the temperate species evolved between 32 and 20 My in a microthermal climate. The predominant evolutionary models were Brownian and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. There was phylogenetic signal in 7 of the 9 variables, indicating conservation of the climatic niche. Escallonia would have originated in the central and southern Andes and reached the other environments by dispersion.

Predicting climate-driven distribution shifts in Hyalomma marginatum (Ixodidae)

Hyalomma marginatum is an important tick species which is the main vector of Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever and spotted fever. The species is predominantly distributed in parts of southern Europe, North Africa and West Asia. However, due to ongoing climate change and increasing reports of H. marginatum in central and northern Europe, the expansion of this range poses a potential future risk. In this study, an ecological niche modelling approach to model the current and future climatic suitability of H. marginatum was followed. Using high-resolution climatic variables from the Chelsa dataset and an updated list of locations for H. marginatum, ecological niche models were constructed under current environmental conditions using MaxEnt for both current conditions and future projections under the ssp370 and ssp585 scenarios. Models show that the climatically suitable region for H. marginatum matches the current distributional area in the Mediterranean basin and West Asia. When applied to future projections, the models suggest a considerable expansion of H. marginatum's range in the north in Europe as a result of rising temperatures. However, a decline in central Anatolia is also predicted, potentially due to the exacerbation of drought conditions in that region.

Out of East Asia: Early Warning of the Possible Invasion of the Important Bean Pest Stalk-Eyed Seed Bug Chauliops fallax (Heteroptera: Malcidae: Chauliopinae)

The short stay at the beginning of the invasion process is a critical time for invasive species identification and preventing invasive species from developing a wider distribution and significant economic impact. The stalk-eyed seed bug Chauliops fallax is an important agricultural pest of soybean and was first reported to occur outside East Asia. Here, we reported the native evolutionary history, recent invasion history, and potential invasion threats of C. fallax for the first time based on population genetic methods and ecological niche modelling. The results showed that four native East Asian genetic groups (EA, WE, TL, and XZ) were well supported, showing an east-west differentiation pattern consistent with the geographical characteristics of three-step landforms in China. Two main haplotypes existed: Hap1 might have experienced a rapid northwards expansion process after the LGM period, and Hap5 reflected local adaptation to the environment in southeastern China. The Kashmir sample was found to come from the recent invasion of populations in the coastal areas of southern China. Ecological niche modelling results suggested that North America has a high risk of invasion, which might pose a serious threat to local soybean production. In addition, with future global warming, the suitable habitat in Asia will move towards the higher latitude region and gradually deviate from the soybean planting area, which indicates the threat of C. fallax to soybean production in Asia will decrease in the future. The results could provide new insights into the monitoring and management of this agricultural pest in the early invasion stage.

Interspecific hybridization explains rapid gorget colour divergence in Heliodoxa hummingbirds (Aves: Trochilidae)

Hybridization is a known source of morphological, functional and communicative signal novelty in many organisms. Although diverse mechanisms of established novel ornamentation have been identified in natural populations, we lack an understanding of hybridization effects across levels of biological scales and upon phylogenies. Hummingbirds display diverse structural colours resulting from coherent light scattering by feather nanostructures. Given the complex relationship between feather nanostructures and the colours they produce, intermediate coloration does not necessarily imply intermediate nanostructures. Here, we characterize nanostructural, ecological and genetic inputs in a distinctive Heliodoxa hummingbird from the foothills of eastern Peru. Genetically, this individual is closely allied with Heliodoxa branickii and Heliodoxa gularis, but it is not identical to either when nuclear data are assessed. Elevated interspecific heterozygosity further suggests it is a hybrid backcross to H. branickii. Electron microscopy and spectrophotometry of this unique individual reveal key nanostructural differences underlying its distinct gorget colour, confirmed by optical modelling. Phylogenetic comparative analysis suggests that the observed gorget coloration divergence from both parentals to this individual would take 6.6-10 My to evolve at the current rate within a single hummingbird lineage. These results emphasize the mosaic nature of hybridization and suggest that hybridization may contribute to the structural colour diversity found across hummingbirds.

Whole genome resequencing identifies local adaptation associated with environmental variation for redband trout

Aquatic ectotherms are predicted to harbour genomic signals of local adaptation resulting from selective pressures driven by the strong influence of climate conditions on body temperature. We investigated local adaptation in redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri) using genome scans for 547 samples from 11 populations across a wide range of habitats and thermal gradients in the interior Columbia River. We estimated allele frequencies for millions of single nucleotide polymorphism loci (SNPs) across populations using low-coverage whole genome resequencing, and used population structure outlier analyses to identify genomic regions under divergent selection between populations. Twelve genomic regions showed signatures of local adaptation, including two regions associated with genes known to influence migration and developmental timing in salmonids (GREB1L, ROCK1, SIX6). Genotype-environment association analyses indicated that diurnal temperature variation was a strong driver of local adaptation, with signatures of selection driven primarily by divergence of two populations in the northern extreme of the subspecies range. We also found evidence for adaptive differences between high-elevation desert vs. montane habitats at a smaller geographical scale. Finally, we estimated vulnerability of redband trout to future climate change using ecological niche modelling and genetic offset analyses under two climate change scenarios. These analyses predicted substantial habitat loss and strong genetic shifts necessary for adaptation to future habitats, with the greatest vulnerability predicted for high-elevation desert populations. Our results provide new insight into the complexity of local adaptation in salmonids, and important predictions regarding future responses of redband trout to climate change.

Temperature and Precipitation More Than Tree Cover Affect the Distribution Patterns of Epiphytic Mosses within the Orthotrichaceae Family in China and Adjacent Areas

Epiphytes, including vascular and non-vascular, constitute a large part of global plant biodiversity. Distribution of obligatory epiphytic bryophytes results from climate and local habitat conditions. The most important epiphytic bryophytes and at the same time poorly investigated and taxonomically problematic ones belong to the family Orthotrichaceae. Epiphytic mosses are also ideal organisms for species modelling, because of having no roots, they are highly dependent on external environmental conditions. For this purpose, we used the ecological niche modelling approach to define their potential distribution in China and adjacent areas and explore factors that shape this distribution. We used 617 occurrence records of 23 species from six genera within the Orthotrichaceae family. Our results suggest that the distribution of members of the Orthotrichaceae family is predominantly affected by bioclimatic variables, especially bio10 (mean temperature of the warmest quarter), bio15 (precipitation seasonality), bio18 (precipitation of the warmest quarter), bio19 (precipitation of the coldest quarter), bio9 (mean temperature of the driest quarter), and bio2 (mean diurnal range). However, the distribution of particular genera is ruled by a different set of those variables. The distribution of two genera (Leratia and Ulota) is also highly influenced by land cover (especially mixed/other trees), whereas human footprint shows a moderate contribution to models of three genera (Lewinskya, Orthotrichum, Nyholmiella). Based on the occupied climatic niche and distribution patterns, representatives of the studied family are divided into two groups. The 'western-montane group' is characterised by lower temperatures and lower precipitation whereas the 'eastern-lowland' group' by more humid and warmer conditions.

Potential distributions of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi and its vector Dipetalogaster maxima highlight areas at risk of Chagas disease transmission in Baja California Sur, Mexico, under climate change

Dipetalogaster maxima is a primary vector of Chagas disease in the Cape region of Baja California Sur, Mexico. The geographic distribution of D. maxima is limited to this small region of the Baja California Peninsula in Mexico. Our study aimed to construct the ecological niche models (ENMs) of this understudied vector species and the parasite responsible for Chagas disease (Trypanosoma cruzi). We modelled the ecological niches of both species under current and future climate change projections in 2050 using four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5. We also assessed the human population at risk of exposure to D. maxima bites, the hypothesis of ecological niche equivalency and similarity between D. maxima and T. cruzi, and finally the abundance centroid hypothesis. The ENM predicted a higher overlap between both species in the Western and Southern coastal regions of the Baja California Peninsula. The climate change scenarios predicted a Northern shift in the ecological niche of both species. Our findings suggested that the highly tourist destination of Los Cabos is a high-risk zone for Chagas disease circulation. Overall, the study provides valuable data to vector surveillance and control programs.

Estimating the Distribution of Japanese Encephalitis Vectors in Australia Using Ecological Niche Modelling

Recent Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreaks in southeastern Australia have sparked interest into epidemiological factors surrounding the virus' novel emergence in this region. Here, the geographic distribution of mosquito species known to be competent JEV vectors in the country was estimated by combining known mosquito occurrences and ecological drivers of distribution to reveal insights into communities at highest risk of infectious disease transmission. Species distribution models predicted that Culex annulirostris and Culex sitiens presence was mostly likely along Australia's eastern and northern coastline, while Culex quinquefasciatus presence was estimated to be most likely near inland regions of southern Australia as well as coastal regions of Western Australia. While Culex annulirostris is considered the dominant JEV vector in Australia, our ecological niche models emphasise the need for further entomological surveillance and JEV research within Australia.

Predicting the habitat suitability of the invasive white mango scale, Aulacaspis tubercularis; Newstead, 1906 (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) using bioclimatic variables

BACKGROUND

The white mango scale, Aulacaspis tubercularis (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), is an invasive pest that threatens the production of several crops of commercial value including mango. Though it is an important pest, little is known about its biology and ecology. Specifically, information on habitat suitability of A. tubercularis occurrence and potential distribution under climate change is largely unknown. In this study, we used four ecological niche models, namely maximum entropy, random forest, generalized additive models, and classification and regression trees to predict the habitat suitability of A. tubercularis under current and future [representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the year 2070] climatic scenarios, using bioclimatic variables. Models' performance was evaluated using the true skill statistic (TSS), the area under the curve (AUC), correlation (COR), and the deviance.

RESULTS

All models sufficiently predicted the occurrence of A. tubercularis with high accuracy (AUC ≥ 0.93, TSS ≥ 0.81 and COR ≥ 0.77). The random forest algorithm had the highest accuracy among the four models (AUC = 0.99, TSS = 0.93, COR = 0.90, deviance = 0.26). Temperature seasonality (Bio4), mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the most important variables influencing A. tubercularis occurrence. Models' predictions showed that countries in east, south, and west Africa are highly suitable for A. tubercularis establishment under current conditions. Similarly, Mexico, Brazil, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia are also highly suitable for the pest to thrive. Under future conditions, the suitable areas might slightly decrease in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa under both RCPs. However, the range of expansion of A. tubercularis is projected to be higher in Australia, Brazil, Spain, Italy, and Portugal under the future climatic scenarios.

CONCLUSION

The results reported here will be useful for guiding decision-making, developing an effective management strategy, and serving as an early warning tool to prevent further spread toward new areas. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of the globe. Understanding the impact of climate change on foundational Arctic marine species is needed to provide insight on ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, the underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted to expand their ranges further north in the Arctic in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses at the southern range edge by modelling marine forest distributions according to three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted to the Arctic environment), cryotolerant (species with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited to the Arctic environment), and cryophobic (species restricted to temperate conditions) marine forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, we predicted the current extent of suitable habitat for contemporary and future marine forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios of increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our analyses indicate that cryophilic marine forests are already ubiquitous in the north, and thus cannot expand their range under climate change, resulting in an overall loss of habitat due to severe southern range contractions. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin, however, is predicted to remain largely stable under climate change with notable exceptions in some areas, particularly in the Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where cryophilic and cryotolerant species are extirpated at their southern range edge, resulting in ecosystem shifts towards temperate regimes at mid to high latitudes, though many aspects of these shifts, such as total biomass and depth range, remain to be field validated. Our results provide the first global synthesis of predicted changes to pan-Arctic coastal marine forest ecosystems under climate change and suggest ecosystem transitions are unavoidable now for some areas.

Population interconnectivity over the past 120,000 years explains distribution and diversity of Central African hunter-gatherers

We combined ethnographic, archaeological, genetic, and paleoclimatic data to model the dynamics of Central African hunter-gatherer populations over the past 120,000 years. We show, against common assumptions, that their distribution and density are explained by changing environments rather than by a displacement following recent farming expansions, and that they have maintained large population sizes and genetic diversity, despite fluctuations in niche availability. Our results provide insights into the evolution of genetic and cultural diversity in Homo sapiens.

The evolutionary history of African hunter-gatherers holds key insights into modern human diversity. Here, we combine ethnographic and genetic data on Central African hunter-gatherers (CAHG) to show that their current distribution and density are explained by ecology rather than by a displacement to marginal habitats due to recent farming expansions, as commonly assumed. We also estimate the range of hunter-gatherer presence across Central Africa over the past 120,000 years using paleoclimatic reconstructions, which were statistically validated by our newly compiled dataset of dated archaeological sites. Finally, we show that genomic estimates of divergence times between CAHG groups match our ecological estimates of periods favoring population splits, and that recoveries of connectivity would have facilitated subsequent gene flow. Our results reveal that CAHG stem from a deep history of partially connected populations. This form of sociality allowed the coexistence of relatively large effective population sizes and local differentiation, with important implications for the evolution of genetic and cultural diversity in Homo sapiens.

The Oriental Hornet (Vespa orientalis L.): a Threat to the Americas?

Invasive alien species generate adverse ecological, economic and social impacts in the invaded area. This is particularly alarming as the establishment of alien species shows no sign of saturation worldwide. Among invasive alien species, social wasps of the Vespidae family are well known to negatively impact the biodiversity and economy in the invaded areas. In 2020, an established population of the Oriental Hornet (Vespa orientalis L.) was detected in central Chile. This finding represents the first successful establishment of an insect of the genus Vespa in South America and rises an alarm about its potential spread in the Americas. Here, we performed an ecological niche modelling approach using Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and literature occurrences for V. orientalis and a set of environmental variables, to identify the suitable areas for the species outside its native range. The highest suitability values were predicted mostly in warm temperate regions and some arid regions of the world, with humid subtropical, Mediterranean, semi-arid or desert climates. In the Americas, we identified four main regions as moderately or highly suitable for the oriental hornet: the Gulf of Mexico and some areas in western California in the USA, central west Chile and the north-western region of Argentina. When we complemented GBIF occurrences with data from the literature, the potential areas of invasions became broader. Based on our results, we recommend the implementation of early warning monitoring schemes including citizen science initiatives to prevent the invasion of the oriental hornet.

Potential Distribution of Wild Host Plants of the Boll Weevil (Anthonomus grandis) in the United States and Mexico

The boll weevil (Anthonomus grandis Boheman) reproduces on a reported 13 species of wild host plants in North America, two in the United States and 12 in Mexico. The distributions of these plants are of economic importance to pest management and provide insight into the evolutionary history and origin of the BW. However, detailed information regarding the distributions of many of these species is lacking. In this article, we present distribution models for all of the reported significant BW host plants from Mexico and the United States using spatial distribution modelling software. Host plant distributions were divided into two groups: “eastern” and “western.” In Mexico, Hampea nutricia along the Gulf Coast was the most important of the eastern group, and the wild cottons, Gossypium aridum and Gossypium thurberi were most important in the western group. Other species of Hampea, Gossypium, and Cienfuegosia rosei have relatively restricted distributions and are of apparent minimal economic importance. Cienfuegosia drummondii is the only truly wild host in the southern United States, east of New Mexico. Factors determining potential distributions were variable and indicated that species were present in five vegetation types. Ecological and economic considerations of host plant distributions are discussed, as well as threats to host plant conservation.

Geo-Spatial Characteristics of 567 Places of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Infection in Southern Germany, 2018-2020

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a growing public health problem with increasing incidence and expanding risk areas. Improved prevention requires better understanding of the spatial distribution and ecological determinants of TBE transmission. However, a TBE risk map at sub-district level is still missing for Germany. We investigated the distribution and geo-spatial characteristics of 567 self-reported places of probable TBE infection (POI) from 359 cases notified in 2018-2020 in the study area of Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg, compared to 41 confirmed TBE foci and 1701 random comparator places. We built an ecological niche model to interpolate TBE risk to the entire study area. POI were distributed heterogeneously at sub-district level, as predicted probabilities varied markedly across regions (range 0-93%). POI were spatially associated with abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic geo-spatial characteristics, including summer precipitation, population density, and annual frost days. The model performed with 69% sensitivity and 63% specificity at an optimised probability threshold (0.28) and an area under the curve of 0.73. We observed high predictive probabilities in small-scale areas, consistent with the known circulation of the TBE virus in spatially restricted microfoci. Supported by further field work, our findings may help identify new TBE foci. Our fine-grained risk map could supplement targeted prevention in risk areas.

Climate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation

Mountains create steep environmental gradients that are sensitive barometers of climate change. We calibrated 10 statistical models to formulate ensemble ecological niche models for 12 predominantly alpine, flightless grasshopper species in Aotearoa New Zealand, using their current distributions and current conditions. Niche models were then projected for two future global climate scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 (1.0°C rise) and RCP8.5 (3.7°C rise). Results were species specific, with two-thirds of our models suggesting a reduction in potential range for nine species by 2070, but surprisingly, for six species, we predict an increase in potential suitable habitat under mild (+1.0°C) or severe global warming (+3.7°C). However, when the limited dispersal ability of these flightless grasshoppers is taken into account, all 12 species studied are predicted to suffer extreme reductions in range, with a quarter likely to go extinct due to a 96-100% reduction in suitable habitat. Habitat loss is associated with habitat fragmentation that is likely to escalate stochastic vulnerability of remaining populations. Here, we present the predicted outcomes for an endemic radiation of alpine taxa as an exemplar of the challenges that alpine species, both in New Zealand and internationally, are subject to by anthropogenic climate change.

Comparing the population history of Neotropical annual species: The role of climate change and hybridization between Tithonia tubaeformis and T. rotundifolia (Asteraceae)

Historical climate changes and interspecific gene flow have played an important role in shaping the distribution and genetic diversity of the biota in the Neotropics. In this study, we explored the role of both the Pleistocene climate changes and hybridization on the contemporary geographic structure of two Neotropical weedy species: Tithonia tubaeformis and T. rotundifolia. Distribution shifts under past and current climate conditions were explored through ecological niche modelling (ENM). We then tested these hypotheses using chloroplast microsatellite (cpSSR) data in T. tubaeformis and compared the patterns deduced with those previously reported for T. rotundifolia using the same cpSSR loci. Lastly, we searched for shared haplotypes between species. Both species exhibited significant downwards altitudinal shifts during the last interglacial (LIG) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). For instance, T. rotundifolia showed large suitable habitat areas since the LIG at xeric conditions in western Mesoamerica. Tithonia tubaeformis showed a ~five-fold range contraction during the LIG compared to current climate conditions, followed by a range expansion in the LGM. Despite the large shared refugial areas predicted through ENM, we found a low number of shared haplotypes, suggesting a minor role of hybridization in shaping the geographic structure of these species. Our results provide additional patterns of the population history of the northern Neotropics during the Quaternary, and we suggest that weedy widespread species are a well-suited group for the study of the effects of historic climatic changes on the biota of this region.

Phylogenetic relationships and ecological niche conservatism in killifish (Profundulidae) in Mesoamerica

The family Profundulidae is a group of small-sized fish species distributed between southern Mexico and Honduras, where they are frequently the only fish representatives at higher elevations in the basins where they occur. We characterized their ecological niche using different methods and metrics drawn from niche modelling and by re-examining phylogenetic relationships of a recently published molecular phylogeny of this family to gain a better understanding of its biogeographic and evolutionary history. We assessed both lines of evidence from the perspective of niche conservatism to set a foundation for discussing hypotheses about the processes underlying the distribution and evolution of the group. In fish clades where the species composition is not clear, we examined whether niche classification could be informative to discriminate groups geographically and ecologically consistent with any of the different hypotheses of valid species. The characterization of the ecological niche was carried out using the Maxent algorithm under different parameterizations and the projection of the presence on the main components of the most relevant environmental coverage, and the niche comparison was calculated with two indices (D and I), both in environmental space and in that projected geographically. With the molecular data, a species tree was generated using the *BEAST method. The comparison of these data was calculated with an age-overlap correlation test. Based on the molecular phylogeny and on niche overlap analyses, we uncovered strong evidence to support the idea that ecologically similar species are not necessarily sister species. The correlation analysis for genetic distance and niche overlap was not significant (P > 0.05). In clades with taxonomic conflicts, we only identified Profundulus oaxacae as a geographically and ecologically distinct group from P. punctatus. All the evidence considered leads us to propose that Profundulidae do not show evidence of niche conservatism and that there are reasons to consider P. oaxacae as a valid species. Our study suggests that niche divergence is a driving evolutionary force that caused the diversification and speciation processes of the Profundulidae, along with the geological and climatic events that promoted the expansion or contraction of suitable environments.

Floral Scent Evolution in the Genus Jaborosa (Solanaceae): Influence of Ecological and Environmental Factors

Floral scent is a key communication channel between plants and pollinators. However, the contributions of environment and phylogeny to floral scent composition remain poorly understood. In this study, we characterized interspecific variation of floral scent composition in the genus Jaborosa Juss. (Solanaceae) and, using an ecological niche modelling approach (ENM), we assessed the environmental variables that exerted the strongest influence on floral scent variation, taking into account pollination mode and phylogenetic relationships. Our results indicate that two major evolutionary themes have emerged: (i) a 'warm Lowland Subtropical nectar-rewarding clade' with large white hawkmoth pollinated flowers that emit fragrances dominated by oxygenated aromatic or sesquiterpenoid volatiles, and (ii) a 'cool-temperate brood-deceptive clade' of largely fly-pollinated species found at high altitudes (Andes) or latitudes (Patagonian Steppe) that emit foul odors including cresol, indole and sulfuric volatiles. The joint consideration of floral scent profiles, pollination mode, and geoclimatic context helped us to disentangle the factors that shaped floral scent evolution across "pollinator climates" (geographic differences in pollinator abundance or preference). Our findings suggest that the ability of plants in the genus Jaborosa to colonize newly formed habitats during Andean orogeny was associated with striking transitions in flower scent composition that trigger specific odor-driven behaviors in nocturnal hawkmoths and saprophilous fly pollinators.

Developing consensus of evidence to target case finding surveys for podoconiosis: a potentially forgotten disease in India

Background

Podoconiosis is a non-infectious geochemical lymphoedema of the lower legs associated with a significant burden of morbidity. There are historical reports of podoconiosis in India, but its current endemicity status is uncertain. In this investigation we aimed to prioritise the selection of districts for pilot mapping of podoconiosis in India.

Methods

Through a consultative workshop bringing together expert opinion on podoconiosis with public health and NTDs in India, we developed a framework for the prioritisation of pilot areas. The four criteria for prioritisation were predicted environmental suitability for podoconiosis, higher relative poverty, occurrence of lymphoedema cases detected by the state health authorities and absence of morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP) services provided by the National Programme for Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis.

Results

Environmental suitability for podoconiosis in India was predicted to be widespread, particularly in the mountainous east and hilly southwest of the country. Most of the districts with higher levels of poverty were in the central east and central west. Of 286 districts delineated by state representatives, lymphoedema was known to the health system in 189 districts and not recorded in 80. Information on MMDP services was unavailable for many districts, but 169 were known not to provide such services. We identified 35 districts across the country as high priority for mapping based on these criteria.

Conclusions

Our results indicate widespread presence of conditions associated with podoconiosis in India, including areas with known lymphoedema cases and without MMDP services. This work is intended to support a rational approach to surveying for an unrecognised, geographically focal, chronic disease in India, with a view to scaling up to inform a national strategy if required.

Centre-periphery approaches based on geography, ecology and historical climate stability: what explains the variation in morphological traits of Bulnesia sarmientoi?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The centre-periphery hypothesis posits that higher species performance is expected in geographic and ecological centres rather than in peripheral populations. However, this is not the commonly found pattern; therefore, alternative approaches, including the historical dimension of species geographical ranges, should be explored. Morphological functional traits are fundamental determinants of species performance, commonly related to environmental stability and productivity. We tested whether or not historical processes may have shaped variations in tree and leaf traits of the Chaco tree Bulnesia sarmientoi.

METHODS

Morphological variation patterns were analysed from three centre-periphery approaches: geographical, ecological and historical. Tree (stem and canopy) and leaf (leaf size and specific leaf area) traits were measured in 24 populations across the species range. A principal component analysis was performed on morphological traits to obtain synthetic variables. Linear mixed-effects models were used to test which of the implemented centre-periphery approaches significantly explained trait spatial patterns.

KEY RESULTS

The patterns retrieved from the three centre-periphery approaches were not concordant. The historical approach revealed that trees were shorter in centre populations than in the periphery. Significant differences in leaf traits were observed between the geographical centre and the periphery, mainly due to low specific leaf area values towards the geographical centre. We did not find any pattern associated with the ecological centre-periphery approach.

CONCLUSIONS

The decoupled response between leaf and tree traits suggests that these sets of traits respond differently to processes occurring at different times. The geographical and historical approaches showed centres with extreme environments in relation to their respective peripheries, but the historical centre has also been a climatically stable area since the Last Glacial Maximum. The historical approach allowed for the recovery of historical processes underlying variation in tree traits, highlighting that centre-periphery delimitations should be based on a multi-approach framework.

Geospatial Modelling and Univariate Analysis of Commensal Rodent-Borne Cestodoses: The Case of Invasive spp. of Rattus and Indigenous Mastomys coucha From South Africa

Poor socio-economic and unsanitary conditions are conducive to commensal rodent infestations, and these conditions are widespread in South Africa. Cestode species of zoonotic interest are highly prevalent in commensal rodents, such as invasive Rattus norvegicus, Rattus rattus, Rattus tanezumi, and indigenous Mastomys coucha, and have been frequently recovered from human stool samples. These cestode species have similar transmission dynamics to traditional soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), which ties them to infections associated with poverty and poor sanitation. Univariate analysis was used in the present study to determine the association between rodent-related factors and cestode prevalence, while ecological niche modelling was used to infer the potential distribution of the cestode species in South Africa. Cestode prevalence was found to be associated with older rodents, but it was not significantly associated with sex, and ectoparasite presence. The predicted occurrence for rodent-borne cestodes predominantly coincided with large human settlements, typically associated with significant anthropogenic changes. In addition, cestode parasite occurrence was predicted to include areas both inland and along the coast. This is possibly related to the commensal behaviour of the rodent hosts. The study highlights the rodent-related factors associated with the prevalence of parasites in the host community, as well as the environmental variables associated with parasite infective stages that influence host exposure. The application of geospatial modelling together with univariate analysis to predict and explain rodent-borne parasite prevalence may be useful to inform management strategies for targeted interventions.

Climate change and its effect on the vulnerability to zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran

Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) is an important vector-borne disease with an incidence of 15.8 cases per 100,000 people in Iran in 2019. Despite all efforts to control the disease, ZCL has expanded into new areas during the last decades. The aim of this study was to predict the best ecological niches for both vectors and reservoirs of ZCL under climate change scenarios in Iran. Several online scientific databases were searched. In this study, various scientific sources (Google Scholar, PubMed, SID, Ovid Medline, Web of Science, Irandoc, Magiran) were searched. The inclusion criteria for this study included all records with spatial information about vectors and reservoirs of ZCL which were published between 1980 and 2019. The bioclimatic data were downloaded from online databases. MaxEnt model was used to predict the ecological niches for each species under two climate change scenarios in two periods: the 2030s and 2050s. The results obtained from the model were analysed in ArcMap to find the vulnerability of different provinces for the establishment of ZCL foci. The area under the curve (AUC) for all models was >0.8, which suggests the models are able to make an accurate prediction. The distribution of all studied species in different climatic conditions showed changes. The variables affecting each of the studied species are introduced in the article. The predicted maps show that by 2050 there will be more suitable areas for the co-occurrence of vector and reservoir(s) of ZCL in Iran compared to the current climate condition and RCP2.6 scenario. An area in the northwest of Iran is predicted to have suitable environmental conditions for both vectors and reservoirs of ZCL, although the disease has not yet been reported in this area. These areas should be considered for field studies to confirm these results and to prevent the establishment of new ZCL foci in Iran.

Rift Valley Fever and West Nile virus vectors in Morocco: Current situation and future anticipated scenarios

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) and West Nile virus (WNV) are two important emerging Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes and Culex mosquitoes, typically Ae. caspius, Ae. detritus and Cx. pipiens in temperate regions. In Morocco, several outbreaks of WNV (1996, 2003 and 2010), affecting horses mostly, have been reported in north-western regions resulting in the death of 55 horses and one person cumulatively. Serological evidence of WNV local circulation, performed one year after the latest outbreak, revealed WNV neutralizing bodies in 59 out of 499 tested participants (El Rhaffouli et al., 2012). The country also shares common borders with northern Mauritania, where RVF is often documented. Human movement, livestock trade, climate changes and the availability of susceptible mosquito vectors are expected to increase the spread of these diseases in the country. Thus, in this study, we gathered a data set summarizing occurrences of Ae. caspius, Ae. detritus and Cx. pipiens in the country, and generated model prediction for their potential distribution under both current and future (2050) climate conditions, as a proxy to identify regions at-risk of RVF and WNV probable expansion. We found that the north-western regions (where the population is most concentrated), specifically along the Atlantic coastline, are highly suitable for Ae. caspius, Ae. detritus and Cx. pipiens, under present-day conditions. Future model scenarios anticipated possible range changes for the three mosquitoes under all climatic assumptions. All of the studied species are prospected to gain new areas that are currently not suitable, even under the most optimist scenario, thus placing additional human populations at risk. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes. Public health officials, entomological surveillance and control delegation must augment efforts and continuously monitor these areas to reduce and minimize human infection risk.

Population genomic, climatic and anthropogenic evidence suggest the role of human forces in endangerment of green peafowl (Pavo muticus)

Both anthropogenic impacts and historical climate change could contribute to population decline and species extinction, but their relative importance is still unclear. Emerging approaches based on genomic, climatic and anthropogenic data provide a promising analytical framework to address this question. This study applied such an integrative approach to examine potential drivers for the endangerment of the green peafowl (Pavo muticus). Several demographic reconstructions based on population genomes congruently retrieved a drastic population declination since the mid-Holocene. Furthermore, a comparison between historical and modern genomes suggested genetic diversity decrease during the last 50 years. However, climate-based ecological niche models predicted stationary general range during these periods and imply the little impact of climate change. Further analyses suggested that human disturbance intensities were negatively correlated with the green peafowl's effective population sizes and significantly associated with its survival status (extirpation or persistence). Archaeological and historical records corroborate the critical role of humans, leaving the footprint of low genomic diversity and high inbreeding in the survival populations. This study sheds light on the potential deep-time effects of human disturbance on species endangerment and offers a multi-evidential approach in examining underlying forces for population declines.

Historical migration and taxonomic entity of Korean endemic shrub Lespedeza maritima (Fabaceae) based on microsatellite loci

Various plant species are endemic to the Korean Peninsula, but their evolutionary divergence and establishment are poorly understood. One of these, Lespedeza maritima, has been proposed as either a hybrid (L. cyrtobotrya × L. maximowiczii) or a synonym of L. thunbergii. A distinct taxon, L. uekii, has been proposed for inland populations. We investigated genetic diversity and structure in L. maritima and related taxa to resolve this. Genotypes of L. maritima (n = 244, including L. uekii) were determined using 12 microsatellite loci, then compared with those of related species. Genetic diversity within L. maritima was estimated, and Bayesian clustering analysis was used to represent its genetic structure and that of related taxa. Its distribution during the last glacial maximum (LGM) was predicted using ecological niche modelling (ENM). Neighbour-joining (NJ) analysis and principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) were used to investigate relationships among species. Bayesian tree based on nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacers (nrITS) was also reconstructed to show relationships and divergence time among species. Morphological features were examined using flower characteristics. In result, expected heterozygosity (H _E) and allelic richness (A _R) within L. maritima were higher in southern than northern populations. Bayesian clustering analysis largely assigned populations to two clusters (K = 2) (south vs. north). The ENM showed that L. maritima occurred around the East China Sea and Korean Strait land bridge during the LGM. Compared with other Lespedeza species, L. maritima was assigned to an independent cluster (K = 2-5), supported by the NJ, PCoA, Bayesian tree and morphological examination results. Lespedeza maritima and L. uekii were clustered to one clade on Bayesian tree. Given results, current L. maritima populations derive from post-LGM colonization away from southern refugia. The type L. uekii, which grows inland, is thought synonym of L. maritima. In addition, L. maritima is considered a distinct species, compared with related taxa.

Historical migration and taxonomic entity of Korean endemic shrub Lespedeza maritima (Fabaceae) based on microsatellite loci

Various plant species are endemic to the Korean Peninsula, but their evolutionary divergence and establishment are poorly understood. One of these, Lespedeza maritima, has been proposed as either a hybrid (L. cyrtobotrya × L. maximowiczii) or a synonym of L. thunbergii. A distinct taxon, L. uekii, has been proposed for inland populations. We investigated genetic diversity and structure in L. maritima and related taxa to resolve this. Genotypes of L. maritima (n = 244, including L. uekii) were determined using 12 microsatellite loci, then compared with those of related species. Genetic diversity within L. maritima was estimated, and Bayesian clustering analysis was used to represent its genetic structure and that of related taxa. Its distribution during the last glacial maximum (LGM) was predicted using ecological niche modelling (ENM). Neighbour-joining (NJ) analysis and principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) were used to investigate relationships among species. Bayesian tree based on nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacers (nrITS) was also reconstructed to show relationships and divergence time among species. Morphological features were examined using flower characteristics. In result, expected heterozygosity (H _E) and allelic richness (A _R) within L. maritima were higher in southern than northern populations. Bayesian clustering analysis largely assigned populations to two clusters (K = 2) (south vs. north). The ENM showed that L. maritima occurred around the East China Sea and Korean Strait land bridge during the LGM. Compared with other Lespedeza species, L. maritima was assigned to an independent cluster (K = 2-5), supported by the NJ, PCoA, Bayesian tree and morphological examination results. Lespedeza maritima and L. uekii were clustered to one clade on Bayesian tree. Given results, current L. maritima populations derive from post-LGM colonization away from southern refugia. The type L. uekii, which grows inland, is thought synonym of L. maritima. In addition, L. maritima is considered a distinct species, compared with related taxa.

The role of the environment in the spatial dynamics of an extensive hybrid zone between two neotropical cats

Identifying factors that create and maintain a hybrid zone is of great interest to ecology, evolution and, more recently, conservation biology. Here, we investigated the role of environmental features in shaping the spatial dynamics of a hybrid zone between the southern tigrina, Leopardus guttulus, and Geoffroy's cat, L. geoffroyi, testing for exogenous selection as the main force acting on its maintenance. These Neotropical felid species are mainly allopatric, with a restricted area of sympatry in the ecotone between the Atlantic Forest and Pampa biomes. As both biomes have experienced high rates of anthropogenic habitat alteration, we also analysed the influence of habitat conversion on the hybrid zone structure. To do this, we used 13 microsatellite loci to identify potential hybrids and generated ecological niche models for them and their parental species. We compared the influence of variables on parental species and hybrid occurrence and calculated the amount of niche overlap among them. Parental species showed different habitat requirements and predicted co-occurrence was restricted to the forest-grassland mosaic of the ecotone. However, hybrids were found beyond this area, mainly in the range of L. geoffroyi. Hybrids demonstrated higher tolerance to habitat alteration than parental types, with a probability of occurrence that was positively related with mosaics of cropland areas and remnants of natural vegetation. These results indicate that exogenous selection alone does not drive the dynamics of the hybrid zone, and that habitat conversion influences its structure, potentially favouring hybrids over parental species.

Niche partitioning among three snail-eating snakes revealed by dentition asymmetry and prey specialisation

The level of dentition asymmetry in snail-eating snakes may reflect their prey choice and feeding efficiency on asymmetric land snails. The three species of Pareas snakes (Squamata: Pareidae) in Taiwan, which form partially sympatric distribution on the island, provide a potential case to test the hypothesis of niche partitioning and character displacement with regard to dentition asymmetry and specialisation in feeding behaviour. In this study, behavioural experiments confirmed that P. formosensis feeds exclusively on slugs, whereas P. atayal and P. komaii consumed both. However, P. atayal more efficiently preys on land snails than P. komaii, exhibiting a shorter handling time and fewer mandibular retractions. Micro-CT and ancestral character reconstruction demonstrated the lowest asymmetry in P. formosensis (the slug specialist), the highest dentition asymmetry in P. atayal (the land snail specialist) and flexibility in P. komaii (the niche switcher): increased dentition asymmetry when sympatrically distributed with the slug eater (character displacement), and decreased asymmetry when living alone (ecological niche release). Ecological niche modelling showed that the distribution of P. formosensis is associated with the presence of slugs, while that of P. atayal could be explained by the land snails. Combining the results from morphology, phylogeny, behavioural experiments and ecological niche modelling, we showed that competition in the sympatric region might have facilitated character displacement among congeners, while the absence of competition in allopatric region has led to ecological niche release.

Subspecies divergence and pronounced phylogenetic incongruence in the East-Asia-endemic shrub Magnolia sieboldii

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The biogeographic patterns of the East-Asia-endemic shrub Magnolia sieboldii, in which the range of the subsp. sieboldii is interposed with the disjunct distribution of subsp. japonica, implies a complex evolutionary history, involving rapid speciation and hybridization. Here, we aim to reveal the evolutionary and phylogeographic histories of the species with a particular focus on the time of subspecies divergence, the hypothesis of secondary hybridization and the Pleistocene survival of each subspecies, using a combination of genetic analyses and ecological niche modelling.

METHODS

Genetic variation, genetic structures and phylogenetic relationships were elucidated based on nuclear low-copy genes, chloroplast DNA, and nuclear simple sequence repeats (SSRs). A scenario selection analysis and divergence time estimation were performed using coalescent simulation in DIYABC and *BEAST. Ecological niche modelling and a test of niche differentiation were performed using Maxent and ENMTools.

KEY RESULTS

All marker types showed deep, but pronouncedly incongruent, west-east genetic divergences, with the subspecies being delineated only by the nuclear low-copy genes. Phylogenetic tree topologies suggested that ancient hybridization and introgression were likely to have occurred; however, this scenario did not receive significant support in the DIYABC analysis. The subspecies differentiated their niches, but both showed a dependence on high humidity and were predicted to have persisted during the last glacial cycle by maintaining a stable latitudinal distribution via migration to lower altitudes.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a deep genetic divergence and a pronounced phylogenetic incongruence among the two subspecies of M. sieboldii, which may have been driven by major paleogeographic and paleoclimatic events that have occurred since the Neogene in East Asia, including global cooling, climate oscillations and the formation of land bridges. Both subspecies were, however, considered to persist in situ in stable climatic conditions during the late Pleistocene.

Global ecological niche modelling of current and future distribution of peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRv) with an ensemble modelling algorithm

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious transboundary viral disease of sheep and goats that negatively impacted the farmers and pastoralists' livelihood in Africa and Asia. To overcome the disease's consequences, the OIE and FAO are collaborating efforts to eradicate the disease once and for all. We developed a predictive model that delineates suitable territories for the virus globally in support of this eradication programme. To achieve this, we used an ecological niche modelling with an ensemble algorithm. AUC-ROC curve, true skill statistics (TSS) and Kappa values were used to evaluate the model's performance. A TSS value greater than 0.7 was used to pool outputs of the nine model. The ensemble model has better performance than individual models by every evaluation metrics (Kappa = 0.82, TSS = 0.88 and ROC = 0.99). Annual minimum temperature (24.92%), annual maximum temperature (21.37%), goat density (18.03%) and solar radiation (14.04%) have the highest overall contribution in the ensemble model. The model indicates that India, Mongolia, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Nepal, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Sudan, Angola, Nigeria, DRC, Ghana, Sierra Leon, Southern Spain, France, Albania, Montenegro, Macedonia, Italy, Armenia and Azerbaijan are highly suitable for PPRv. In 2040, suitable territories for PPRv will diminish, indicating the odds are with us in eradicating disease by 2030. We believe that this model can be used as an epidemiological tool to facilitate the global eradication programme of the disease set by the OIE and FAO.

Nested Species Distribution Models of Chlamydiales in Ixodes ricinus (Tick) Hosts in Switzerland

The tick Ixodes ricinus is the vector of various pathogens, including Chlamydiales bacteria, which potentially cause respiratory infections. In this study, we modeled the spatial distribution of I. ricinus and associated Chlamydiales over Switzerland from 2009 to 2019. We used a total of 2,293 ticks and 186 Chlamydiales occurrences provided by a Swiss Army field campaign, a collaborative smartphone application, and a prospective campaign. For each tick location, we retrieved from Swiss federal data sets the environmental factors reflecting the topography, climate, and land cover. We then used the Maxent modeling technique to estimate the suitability of particular areas for I. ricinus and to subsequently build the nested niche of Chlamydiales bacteria. Results indicate that I. ricinus habitat suitability is determined by higher temperature and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values, lower temperature during the driest months, and a higher percentage of artificial and forest areas. The performance of the model was improved when extracting the environmental variables for a 100-m radius buffer around the sampling points and when considering the climatic conditions of the 2 years previous to the sampling date. Chlamydiales bacteria were favored by a lower percentage of artificial surfaces, drier conditions, high precipitation during the coldest months, and short distances to wetlands. From 2009 to 2018, we observed an extension of areas suitable to ticks and Chlamydiales, associated with a shift toward higher altitude. The importance of considering spatiotemporal variations in the environmental conditions for obtaining better prediction was also demonstrated.IMPORTANCEIxodes ricinus is the vector of pathogens including the agent of Lyme disease, the tick-borne encephalitis virus, and the less well-known Chlamydiales bacteria, which are responsible for certain respiratory infections. In this study, we identified the environmental factors influencing the presence of I. ricinus and Chlamydiales in Switzerland and generated maps of their distribution from 2009 to 2018. We found an important expansion of suitable areas for both the tick and the bacteria during the last decade. Results also provided the environmental factors that determine the presence of Chlamydiales within ticks. Distribution maps as generated here are expected to bring valuable information for decision makers in controlling tick-borne diseases in Switzerland and establishing prevention campaigns. The methodological framework presented could be used to predict the distribution and spread of other host-pathogen pairs to identify environmental factors driving their distribution and to develop control or prevention strategies accordingly.

Trait-based ecology at large scales: Assessing functional trait correlations, phylogenetic constraints and spatial variability using open data

The growing use of functional traits in ecological research has brought new insights into biodiversity responses to global environmental change. However, further progress depends on overcoming three major challenges involving (a) statistical correlations between traits, (b) phylogenetic constraints on the combination of traits possessed by any single species, and (c) spatial effects on trait structure and trait-environment relationships. Here, we introduce a new framework for quantifying trait correlations, phylogenetic constraints and spatial variability at large scales by combining openly available species' trait, occurrence and phylogenetic data with gridded, high-resolution environmental layers and computational modelling. Our approach is suitable for use among a wide range of taxonomic groups inhabiting terrestrial, marine and freshwater habitats. We demonstrate its application using freshwater macroinvertebrate data from 35 countries in Europe. We identified a subset of available macroinvertebrate traits, corresponding to a life-history model with axes of resistance, resilience and resource use, as relatively unaffected by correlations and phylogenetic constraints. Trait structure responded more consistently to environmental variation than taxonomic structure, regardless of location. A re-analysis of existing data on macroinvertebrate communities of European alpine streams supported this conclusion, and demonstrated that occurrence-based functional diversity indices are highly sensitive to the traits included in their calculation. Overall, our findings suggest that the search for quantitative trait-environment relationships using single traits or simple combinations of multiple traits is unlikely to be productive. Instead, there is a need to embrace the value of conceptual frameworks linking community responses to environmental change via traits which correspond to the axes of life-history models. Through a novel integration of tools and databases, our flexible framework can address this need.

Potential distributions of phlebotomine sandfly vectors of human visceral leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania infantum in Morocco

Zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis is a common vector-borne systemic disease caused by Leishmania infantum (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae). In Morocco the situation is complex: many sandfly species have been collected in areas in which the disease is endemic, but only Phlebotomus ariasi, Phlebotomus perniciosus and Phlebotomus longicuspis (Diptera: Psychodidae) have been confirmed to have vectorial roles. The objective of the present study was to ascertain the potential distribution of L. infantum and its vectors in Morocco, using ecological niche modelling. Vector records were obtained from field collections of the Laboratory team and from previously published entomological observations. Epidemiological data for L. infantum modelling were obtained from Moroccan Ministry of Health reports. The jackknife test indicated that the bioclimatic variables with the greatest influence on model development for all species were annual precipitation and precipitation in the driest quarter of the year. MaxEnt model representations for sandfly species that act as vectors of L. infantum showed the widespread geographic distribution of these species in Morocco, specifically in northern and central Morocco, where foci of visceral leishmaniasis are found. The ecological niche modelling points out areas in which the probability of occurrence of these species is higher. This information should be considered as a starting point for further research to fully elucidate the ecology and epidemiology of these species, as well as of the pathogens they transmit.

Impact of mating system on range size and niche breadth in Epipactis (Orchidaceae)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The geographical distribution of plant species is linked fundamentally not only to environmental variables, but also to key traits that affect the dispersal, establishment and evolutionary potential of a species. One of the key plant traits that can be expected to affect standing genetic variation, speed of adaptation and the capacity to colonize and establish in new habitats, and therefore niche breadth and range size, is the plant mating system. However, the precise role of the mating system in shaping range size and niche breadth of plant species remains unclear, and different studies have provided contrasting results. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that range size and niche breadth differed with mating system in the orchid genus Epipactis.

METHODS

We modelled the ecological niches of 14 Epipactis species in Europe using occurrence records and environmental satellite data in Maxent. Niche breadth and niche overlap in both geographic and environmental space were calculated from the resulting habitat suitability maps using ENMTools, and geographic range was estimated using α-hull range definition. Habitat suitability, environmental variable contributions and niche metrics were compared among species with different mating systems.

KEY RESULTS

We did not detect significant differences in niche breadth, occurrence probability or geographical range between autogamous and allogamous Epipactis species, although autogamous species demonstrated notably low variation in niche parameters. We also found no significant differences in niche overlap between species with the same mating system or different mating systems. For all Epipactis species, occurrence was strongly associated with land cover, particularly broad-leafed and coniferous forests, and with limestone bedrock.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that the mating system does not necessarily contribute to niche breadth and differentiation, and that other factors (e.g. mycorrhizal specificity) may be more important drivers of range size and niche breadth in Epipactis and orchids in general.

Integrative taxonomy identifies a new stingray species of the genus Hypanus Rafinesque, 1818 (Dasyatidae, Myliobatiformes), from the Tropical Southwestern Atlantic

An integrative approach by the congruence of genetics, morphology and ecological niche modelling (ENM) was used to delimit a new species of Hypanus (Rafinesque, 1818), a recently resurrected genus of marine stingrays comprising eight species, five of which occur in the western Atlantic. The species with the widest distribution, Hypanus americanus (Hildebrand and Schroeder, 1928), from the northeastern coast of the United States to southeastern Brazil, was demonstrated to be paraphyletic based on protein-coding mitochondrial genome analyses. This data set also indicates that the genetic distance between the new species Hypanus berthalutzae sp. nov. and its three closely related species (H. americanus, H. longus and H. rudis) varies from 0.82% to 3.14%. In addition, Bayesian Analysis of Population Similarity using the mitochondrial gene mt-nd2 supports the separation of H. berthalutzae sp. nov. (southwestern Atlantic) from its sister species H. rudis (eastern Atlantic). Similarly, morphological and morphometric analyses corroborated four morphotypes within the H. americanus species group and indicated the ventral caudal fold height and length and interspiracular and interorbital lengths as useful measurements to distinguish among them. Claspers of adult males also exhibit morphological differences among species. The ENM agreed with molecular and morphological analyses and delimits the distribution of H. berthalutzae sp. nov. to shallow areas close to shore along the Brazilian coast, from the mouth of the Amazon River to São Paulo State, including the northeastern oceanic islands, suggesting that the great outflow of fresh water and sediments and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge might act as barriers. The integration of these data to describe a new species provides information relevant to their conservation status, because all species of the H. americanus species group are under the "data-deficient" status.

Modelling the climatic suitability of Chagas disease vectors on a global scale

The Triatominae are vectors for Trypanosoma cruzi, the aetiological agent of the neglected tropical Chagas disease. Their distribution stretches across Latin America, with some species occurring outside of the Americas. In particular, the cosmopolitan vector, Triatoma rubrofasciata, has already been detected in many Asian and African countries. We applied an ensemble forecasting niche modelling approach to project the climatic suitability of 11 triatomine species under current climate conditions on a global scale. Our results revealed potential hotspots of triatomine species diversity in tropical and subtropical regions between 21°N and 24°S latitude. We also determined the climatic suitability of two temperate species (T. infestans, T. sordida) in Europe, western Australia and New Zealand. Triatoma rubrofasciata has been projected to find climatically suitable conditions in large parts of coastal areas throughout Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia, emphasising the importance of an international vector surveillance program in these regions.

Potential distribution of main malaria vector species in the endemic Colombian Pacific region

OBJECTIVE

To assess the existing fundamental niche, potential distribution and degree of niche overlap for the three main Colombian malaria vectors Anopheles albimanus, Anopheles darlingi and Anopheles nuneztovari in the major malaria endemic Pacific region.

METHODS

We used models based on presence records and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, created using the maximum entropy algorithm.

RESULTS

The three vector species occupied heterogeneous environments, and their NDVI values differed. Anopheles albimanus had the largest niche amplitude and was distributed mainly on coastal areas. Environmentally suitable areas for An. albimanus and An. nuneztovari were the dry forest of inter-Andean Valleys in south-western Colombia, as confirmed for An. albimanus during model validation. There was a slight degree of niche overlap between An. darlingi and An. nuneztovari, and the species co-occurred in humid forests, predominantly in riparian zones of the San Juan and Atrato rivers.

CONCLUSION

The information obtained may be used for the implementation of vector control interventions in selected priority areas to reduce malaria risk in this region while optimising resources.

Global occurrence data improve potential distribution models for Aedes japonicus japonicus in non-native regions

BACKGROUND

There is great interest in modelling the distribution of invasive species, particularly from the point of view of management. However, distribution modelling for invasive species using ecological niche models (ENMs) involves multiple challenges. Owing to the short time span since the introduction or arrival of a non-indigenous species and the associated dispersal limitations, applying regular ENMs at an early stage of the invasion process may result in an underestimation of the potential niche in the new ranges. This topic is dealt with here using the example of Aedes japonicus japonicus, a vector competent mosquito species for a number of diseases.

RESULTS

We found high niche unfilling for the species' non-native range niches in Europe and North America compared with the native range niche, which can be explained by the early stage of the invasion process. Comparing four different ENMs based on: (i) the European and (ii) the North American non-native range occurrence data, (iii) (derived) native range occurrence data, and (iv) all available occurrence data together, we found large differences in the projected climatic suitability, with the global data model projecting larger areas with climatic suitability.

CONCLUSION

ENM in biological invasions can be challenging, especially when distribution data are only poorly available. We suggest one possible way to project climatic suitability for Aedes j. japonicus despite poor data availability for the non-native ranges and missing occurrences from the native range. We discuss aspects of the lack of information and the associated implications for modelling. © 2020 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Ecological Niche Models of Four Hard Tick Genera (Ixodidae) in Mexico

Simple Summary

Vector-borne diseases currently represent a significant threat to public health, mainly due to the changes that humans are producing in ecosystems and climates. Analyzing the environmental conditions that allow the establishment and survival of ticks could help determine possible sites for the appearance of infectious outbreaks. In this study, nine ecological niche models were generated from different algorithms to determine the current potential distribution of four tick genera in Mexico. Temperature and moisture have been considered as the main factors limiting tick distribution. However, the analysis of the ecological niche models determined that the four genera exhibited different distribution patterns, which may be associated with their physiological and ecological differences. This type of analysis can improve our understanding of the dynamics of ticks and, therefore, can be very useful in monitoring programs of the diseases they transmit.

Abstract

Ticks are vectors of a large number of pathogens of medical and veterinary importance, and in recent years, they have participated in the rise of multiple infectious outbreaks around the world. Studies have proposed that temperature and precipitation are the main variables that limit the geographical distribution of ticks. The analysis of environmental constraints with ecological niche modeling (ENM) techniques can improve our ability to identify suitable areas for emergence events. Algorithms used in this study showed different distributional patterns for each tick genera; the environmental suitability for Amblyomma includes warm and humid localities below 1000 m above the sea level, while Ixodes is mainly associated with ecosystems with high vegetation cover. Dermacentor and Rhipicephalus genus presented wider distribution patterns; the first includes species that are well adapted to resist desiccation, whereas the latter includes generalist species that are mostly associated with domestic hosts in Mexico. Ecological niche models have proven to be useful in estimating the geographic distribution of many taxa of ticks. Despite our limited knowledge of tick’s diversity, ENM can improve our understanding of the dynamics of vector-borne diseases and can assist public health decision-making processes.

Morphology and secondary chemistry in species recognition of Parmelia omphalodes group - evidence from molecular data with notes on the ecological niche modelling and genetic variability of photobionts

To evaluate the importance of morphological and chemical characters used in the recognition of species within the Parmelia omphalodes group, we performed phylogenetic, morphological and chemical analyses of 335 specimens, of which 34 were used for molecular analyses. Phylogenetic analyses, based on ITS rDNA sequences, show that P. pinnatifida is distinct from P. omphalodes and the most important difference between those species is the development of pseudocyphellae. In P. pinnatifida, they are mostly marginal and form white rims along lobes margins, but laminal pseudocyphellae can develop in older parts of thalli and are predominantly connected with marginal pseudocyphellae. In contrast, in P. omphalodes laminal pseudocyphellae are common and are predominantly not connected to marginal pseudocyphellae. Chemical composition of secondary lichen metabolites in both analysed species is identical and therefore this feature is not diagnostic in species recognition. Few samples of P. discordans, species morphologically similar to P. omphalodes and P. pinnatifida, were also included in the analyses and they are nested within the clade of P. omphalodes, despite the different chemistry (protocetraric acid present versus salazinic acid in P. omphalodes). All taxa of the P. omphalodes group occupy similar niches, but their potential distributions are wider than those currently known. The absence of specimens in some localities may be limited by the photobiont availability. Parmelia omphalodes and P. pinnatifida are moderately selective in photobiont choice as they form associations with at least two or three lineages of Trebouxia clade S. Parmelia pinnatifida, as well as P. discordans are associated with Trebouxia OTU S02 which seems to have a broad ecological amplitude. Other lineages of Trebouxia seem to be rarer, especially Trebouxia sp. OTU S04, which is sometimes present in P. pinnatifida. This study indicates the importance of extensive research including morphology, chemistry and analysis of molecular markers of both bionts in taxonomical studies of lichens.

Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants

BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS

Tropical plant species are already suffering the effects of climate change and projections warn of even greater changes in the following decades. Of particular concern are alterations in flowering phenology, given that it is considered a fitness trait, part of plant species ecological niche, with potential cascade effects in plant-pollinator interactions. The aim of the study was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.

METHODS

We implemented ecological niche modelling (ENM) to investigate the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of 62 hummingbird-pollinated plant species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

KEY RESULTS

Distribution models indicate future changes in the climatic suitability of their current habitats, suggesting a tendency towards discontinuity, reduction and spatial displacement. Flowering models indicate that climate can influence species phenology in different ways: some species may experience increased flowering suitability whereas others may suffer decreased suitability.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that hummingbird-pollinated species are prone to changes in their geographical distribution and flowering under different climate scenarios. Such variation may impact the community structure of ecological networks and reproductive success of tropical plants in the near future.

Islands in the desert: environmental distribution modelling of endemic flora reveals the extent of Pleistocene tropical relict vegetation in southern Arabia

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Southern Arabia is a global biodiversity hotspot with a high proportion of endemic desert-adapted plants. Here we examine evidence for a Pleistocene climate refugium in the southern Central Desert of Oman, and its role in driving biogeographical patterns of endemism.

METHODS

Distribution data for seven narrow-range endemic plants were collected systematically across 195 quadrats, together with incidental and historic records. Important environmental variables relevant to arid coastal areas, including night-time fog and cloud cover, were developed for the study area. Environmental niche models using presence/absence data were built and tuned for each species, and spatial overlap was examined.

KEY RESULTS

A region of the Jiddat Al Arkad reported independent high model suitability for all species. Examination of environmental data across southern Oman indicates that the Jiddat Al Arkad displays a regionally unique climate with higher intra-annual stability, due in part to the influence of the southern monsoon. Despite this, the relative importance of environmental variables was highly differentiated among species, suggesting that characteristic variables such as coastal fog are not major cross-species predictors at this scale.

CONCLUSIONS

The co-occurrence of a high number of endemic study species within a narrow monsoon-influenced region is indicative of a refugium with low climate change velocity. Combined with climate analysis, our findings provide strong evidence for a southern Arabian Pleistocene refugium in Oman's Central Desert. We suggest that this refugium has acted as an isolated temperate and mesic island in the desert, resulting in the evolution of these narrow-range endemic flora. Based on the composition of species, this system may represent the northernmost remnant of a continuous belt of mesic vegetation formerly ranging from Africa to Asia, with close links to the flora of East Africa. This has significant implications for future conservation of endemic plants in an arid biodiversity hotspot.

Investigating the Current and Future Co-Occurrence of Ambrosia artemisiifolia and Ophraella communa in Europe through Ecological Modelling and Remote Sensing Data Analysis

The common ragweed Ambrosia artemisiifolia has spread throughout Europe since the 1800s, infesting croplands and causing severe allergic reactions. Recently, the ragweed leaf beetle Ophraella communa was found in Italy and Switzerland; considering that it feeds primarily on A. artemisiifolia in its invaded ranges, some projects started biological control of this invasive plant through the adventive beetle. In this context of a ‘double’ invasion, we assessed the influence of climate change on the spread of these alien species through ecological niche modelling. Considering that A. artemisiifolia mainly lives in agricultural and urbanized areas, we refined the models using satellite remote-sensing data; we also assessed the co-occurrence of the two species in these patches. A. artemisiifolia is predicted to expand more than O. communa in the future, with the medium and high classes of suitability of the former increasing more than the latter, resulting in lower efficacy for O. communa to potentially control A. artemisiifolia in agricultural and urbanized patches. Although a future assessment was performed through the 2018 land-cover data, the predictions we propose are intended to be a starting point for future assessments, considering that the possibility of a shrinkage of target patches is unlikely to occur.

Response of xerophytic plants to glacial cycles in southern South America

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Quaternary glaciations strongly affected the distribution of species from arid and semi-arid environments, as temperature drops were accompanied by strong fluctuations in rainfall. In this study, we examined the response of xerophytic species to glacial cycles, determining the genetic patterns and climatic niche of Echinopsis chiloensis var. chiloensis, an endemic columnar cactus of arid and semi-arid regions of Chile.

METHODS

We analysed 11 polymorphic microsatellites for 130 individuals from 13 populations distributed across the entire distribution of the species. We examined genetic diversity and structure, identified possible patterns of isolation by distance (IBD) and tested two competing population history scenarios using Approximate Bayesian Computation. The first scenario assumes a constant population size while the second includes a bottleneck in the southern population. The latter scenario assumed that the southernmost populations experienced a strong contraction during glaciation, followed by a postglacial expansion; by contrast, the area of the northernmost populations remained as a stable refugium. We also used ecological niche modelling (ENM) to evaluate the location and extension of suitable areas during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Holocene.

KEY RESULTS

We found a decline in genetic diversity towards high latitudes and a significant IBD pattern that together with ENM predictions suggest that E. chiloensis var. chiloensis experienced range contraction northwards during wet-cold conditions of the LGM, followed by expansion during aridification of the mid-Holocene. In addition to IBD, we detected the presence of a strong barrier to gene flow at 32°30'S, which according to coalescence analysis occurred 44 kyr BP. The resulting genetic clusters differed in realized climatic niche, particularly in the variables related to precipitation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the cactus E. chiloensis var. chiloensis experienced range contraction and fragmentation during the wet-cold conditions of the LGM, which may have facilitated ecological differentiation between northern and southern populations, promoting incipient speciation.

Mapping changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of lumpy skin disease virus

Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is an infectious disease of cattle transmitted by arthropod vectors which results in substantial economic losses due to impact on production efficiency and profitability, and represents an emerging threat to international trade of livestock products and live animals. Since 2015, the disease has spread into the Northern Hemisphere including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and the Balkans. The rapid expansion of LSDV in those regions represented the emergence of the virus in more temperate regions than those in which LSDV traditionally occurred. The goal of this study was to assess the risk for further LSDV spread through the (a) analysis of environmental factors conducive for LSDV, and (b) estimate of the underlying LSDV risk, using a combination of ecological niche modelling and fine spatiotemporally explicit Bayesian hierarchical model on LSDV outbreak occurrence data. We used ecological niche modelling to estimate the potential distribution of LSDV outbreaks for 2014-2016. That analysis resulted in a spatial representation of environmental limits where, if introduced, LSDV is expected to efficiently spread. The Bayesian space-time model incorporated both environmental factors and the changing spatiotemporal distribution of the disease to capture the dynamics of disease spread and predict areas in which there is an increased risk for LSDV occurrence. Variables related to the average temperature, precipitation, wind speed, as well as land cover and host densities were important drivers explaining the observed distribution of LSDV in both modelling approaches. Areas of elevated LSDV risks were identified mainly in Russia, Turkey, Serbia and Bulgaria. The results suggest that, if current ecological and epidemiological conditions persist, further spread of LSDV in Eurasia may be expected. The results presented here advance our understanding of the ecological requirements of LSDV in temperate regions and may help in the design and implementation of prevention and surveillance strategies in the region.

Markers in time and space: A review of the last decade of plant phylogeographic approaches

Plant studies comprise a relatively small proportion of the phylogeographic literature, likely as a consequence of the fundamental challenges posed by the complex genomic structures and life history strategies of these organisms. Comparative plastomics (i.e., comparisons of mutation rates within and among regions of the chloroplast genome) across plant lineages has led to an increased understanding of which markers are likely to provide the most information at low taxonomic levels. However, the extent to which the results of such work have influenced the literature has not been fully assessed, nor has the extent to which plant phylogeographers explicitly analyse markers in time and space, both of which are integral components of the field. Here, we reviewed more than 400 publications from the last decade of plant phylogeography to specifically address the following questions: (i) What is the phylogenetic breadth of studies to date? (ii) What molecular markers have been used, and why were they chosen? (iii) What kinds of markers are most frequently used and in what combinations? (iv) How frequently are divergence time estimation and ecological niche modelling used in plant phylogeography? Our results indicate that chloroplast DNA sequence data remain the primary tool of choice, followed distantly by nuclear DNA sequences and microsatellites. Less than half (42%) of all studies use divergence time estimation, while even fewer use ecological niche modelling (14%). We discuss the implications of our findings, as well as the need for community standards on data reporting.

Pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise on the future distribution of Spartina alterniflora along the Chinese coast

AIM

Global change seriously threatens the salt marsh ecosystem, while it remains unclear how S. will respond to climate change and sea level rise. Here, we investigated interactions among variables and identified the impacts of climate change, sea level rise, and their interactions on the distribution of Spartina alterniflora.

LOCATION

Northern Chinese coast and Southern Chinese coast.

TAXON

Spartina alterniflora Loisel.

METHODS

With global sensitivity analysis, we determined interactions among variables and their relative importance to the distribution of S. alterniflora. Integrating the Venn's four-set diagram, we built ecological niche models under current and three future scenarios to identify pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise on the distribution of S. alterniflora.

RESULTS

Mean diurnal range (Bio02) and Elevation were the two most critical variables controlling the distribution of S. alterniflora on the Chinese coast, and interactions among variables of the northern coast were much greater than that of the southern coast. Habitats change was mainly caused by pure effects of climate change, except habitats reduction on the southern coast. Pure effects of sea level rise were low, but it can influence habitats change through shared and coupling effects from complex interactions with climate change. Interactions of climate change and sea level rise can drive habitats change, and the changed habitats caused by shared and coupling effects were mainly distributed the areas near the landward side.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Our research suggests paying attention to interactions among variables when calculating the relative importance of explanatory variables. Identifying pure, shared, and coupling effects of climate change and sea level rise for the distribution of S. alterniflora will provide scientific references for assessing the risk of similar coastal species.

Leishmaniasis in Eurasia and Africa: geographical distribution of vector species and pathogens

Leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease with a broad global occurrence and an increasing number of recorded cases; however, it is still one of the world's most neglected diseases. We here provide climatic suitability maps generated by means of an ecological niche modelling approach for 32 Phlebotomus vector species with proven or suspected vector competence for five Leishmania pathogens occurring in Eurasia and Africa. A GIS-based spatial overlay analysis was then used to compare the distributional patterns of vectors and pathogens to help evaluate the vector species-pathogen relationship currently found in the literature. Based on this single factor of vector incrimination, that is, co-occurrence of both vector and pathogen, most of the pathogens occurred with at least one of the associated vector species. In the case of L. donovani, only a not yet confirmed vector species, P. rodhaini, could explain the occurrence of the pathogen in regions of Africa. Phlebotomus alexandri and P. longiductus on the other hand, proven vector species of L. donovani, do not seem to qualify as vectors for the pathogen. Their distribution is restricted to northern latitudes and does not match the pathogen's distribution, which lies in southern latitudes. Other more locally confined mismatches were discussed for each pathogen species. The comparative geographical GIS-overlay of vector species and pathogens functions as a first indication that testing and re-evaluation of some pathogen-vector relationships might be worthwhile to improve risk assessments of leishmaniasis.

Coupling of palaeontological and neontological reef coral data improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change

Reef corals are currently undergoing climatically driven poleward range expansions, with some evidence for equatorial range retractions. Predicting their response to future climate scenarios is critical to their conservation, but ecological models are based only on short-term observations. The fossil record provides the only empirical evidence for the long-term response of organisms under perturbed climate states. The palaeontological record from the Last Interglacial (LIG; 125 000 years ago), a time of global warming, suggests that reef corals experienced poleward range shifts and an equatorial decline relative to their modern distribution. However, this record is spatio-temporally biased, and existing methods cannot account for data absence. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to estimate reef corals' realized niche and LIG distribution, based on modern and fossil occurrences. We then make inferences about modelled habitability under two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Reef coral ranges during the LIG were comparable to the present, with no prominent equatorial decrease in habitability. Reef corals are likely to experience poleward range expansion and large equatorial declines under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. However, this range expansion is probably optimistic in the face of anthropogenic climate change. Incorporation of fossil data in niche models improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change.