Irrigation dams threaten Brazilian biodiversity

Brazil is among the main contributors to global biodiversity, which, in turn, provides extensive ecosystem services. Agriculture is an activity that benefits greatly from these ecosystem services, but at the same time is degrading aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and eroding Brazilian biodiversity. This conflict is growing, as emerging unsustainable legislative proposals that will benefit the agricultural sector are likely to accelerate the decline of biodiversity. One such initiative (Bill 1282/2019) would change Brazil's "Forest Code" (Law 12,651/2012) to facilitate construction of irrigation dams in Permanent Preservation Areas, a category that includes strips (with or without vegetation) along the edges of watercourses. Two other similar bills are advancing through committees in the Chamber of Deputies. Here we provide details of these three bills and discuss their consequences for Brazil's biodiversity if they are approved. Expected negative impacts with changes in the legislation include: increased deforestation; siltation; habitat fragmentation; introduction of non-native species; reduction in the availability of aquatic habitats; and changes in biogeochemical process. These proposals jeopardize biodiversity and may compromise the negotiations for an agreement between Mercosur and the European Union.

The thermal breadth of temperate and tropical freshwater insects supports the climate variability hypothesis

Climate change involves increases in mean temperature and changes in temperature variability at multiple temporal scales but research rarely considers these temporal scales. The climate variability hypothesis (CVH) provides a conceptual framework for exploring the potential effects of annual scale thermal variability across climatic zones. The CVH predicts ectotherms in temperate regions tolerate a wider range of temperatures than those in tropical regions in response to greater annual variability in temperate regions. However, various other aspects of thermal regimes (e.g. diel variability), organisms' size and taxonomic identity are also hypothesised to influence thermal tolerance. Indeed, high temperatures in the tropics have been proposed as constraining organisms' ability to tolerate a wide range of temperatures, implying that high annual maximum temperatures would be associated with tolerating a narrow range of temperatures. We measured thermal regimes and critical thermal limits (CTmax and CTmin) of freshwater insects in the orders Ephemeroptera (mayflies), Plecoptera (stoneflies) and Trichoptera (caddisflies) along elevation gradients in streams in temperate and tropical regions of eastern Australia and tested the CVH by determining which variables were most correlated with thermal breadth (T br = CTmax - CTmin). Consistent with the CVH, T br tended to increase with increasing annual temperature range. T br also increased with body size and T br was generally wider in Plecoptera than in Ephemeroptera or Trichoptera. We also find some support for a related hypothesis, the climate extreme hypothesis (CEH), particularly for predicting upper thermal limits. We found no evidence that higher annual maximum temperature constrained individuals' abilities to tolerate a wide range of temperatures. The support for the CVH we document suggests that temperate organisms may be able to tolerate wider ranges of temperatures than tropical organisms. There is an urgent need to investigate other aspects of thermal regimes, such as diel temperature cycling and minimum temperature.

Acute, diel, and annual temperature variability and the thermal biology of ectotherms

Global warming is increasing mean temperatures and altering temperature variability at multiple temporal scales. To better understand the consequences of changes in thermal variability for ectotherms it is necessary to consider thermal variation at different time scales (i.e., acute, diel, and annual) and the responses of organisms within and across generations. Thermodynamics constrain acute responses to temperature, but within these constraints and over longer time periods, organisms have the scope to adaptively acclimate or evolve. Yet, hypotheses and predictions about responses to future warming tend not to explicitly consider the temporal scale at which temperature varies. Here, focusing on multicellular ectothermic animals, we argue that consideration of multiple processes and constraints associated with various timescales is necessary to better understand how altered thermal variability because of climate change will affect ectotherms.

Simple statistical models can be sufficient for testing hypotheses with population time‐series data

Time‐series data offer wide‐ranging opportunities to test hypotheses about the physical and biological factors that influence species abundances. Although sophisticated models have been developed and applied to analyze abundance time series, they require information about species detectability that is often unavailable. We propose that in many cases, simpler models are adequate for testing hypotheses. We consider three relatively simple regression models for time series, using simulated and empirical (fish and mammal) datasets. Model A is a conventional generalized linear model of abundance, model B adds a temporal autoregressive term, and model C uses an estimate of population growth rate as a response variable, with the option of including a term for density dependence. All models can be fit using Bayesian and non‐Bayesian methods. Simulation results demonstrated that model C tended to have greater support for long‐lived, lower‐fecundity organisms (K life‐history strategists), while model A, the simplest, tended to be supported for shorter‐lived, high‐fecundity organisms (r life‐history strategists). Analysis of real‐world fish and mammal datasets found that models A, B, and C each enjoyed support for at least some species, but sometimes yielded different insights. In particular, model C indicated effects of predictor variables that were not evident in analyses with models A and B. Bayesian and frequentist models yielded similar parameter estimates and performance. We conclude that relatively simple models are useful for testing hypotheses about the factors that influence abundance in time‐series data, and can be appropriate choices for datasets that lack the information needed to fit more complicated models. When feasible, we advise fitting datasets with multiple models because they can provide complementary information.

Reducing adverse impacts of Amazon hydropower expansion

Proposed hydropower dams at more than 350 sites throughout the Amazon require strategic evaluation of trade-offs between the numerous ecosystem services provided by Earth's largest and most biodiverse river basin. These services are spatially variable, hence collective impacts of newly built dams depend strongly on their configuration. We use multiobjective optimization to identify portfolios of sites that simultaneously minimize impacts on river flow, river connectivity, sediment transport, fish diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions while achieving energy production goals. We find that uncoordinated, dam-by-dam hydropower expansion has resulted in forgone ecosystem service benefits. Minimizing further damage from hydropower development requires considering diverse environmental impacts across the entire basin, as well as cooperation among Amazonian nations. Our findings offer a transferable model for the evaluation of hydropower expansion in transboundary basins.

A unifying framework for analyzing temporal changes in functional and taxonomic diversity along disturbance gradients

Frameworks exclusively considering functional diversity are gaining popularity, as they complement and extend the information provided by taxonomic diversity metrics, particularly in response to disturbance. Taxonomic diversity should be included in functional diversity frameworks to uncover the functional mechanisms causing species loss following disturbance events. We present and test a predictive framework that considers temporal functional and taxonomic diversity responses along disturbance gradients. Our proposed framework allows us to test different multidimensional metrics of taxonomic diversity that can be directly compared to calculated multidimensional functional diversity metrics. It builds on existing functional diversity-disturbance frameworks both by using a gradient approach and by jointly considering taxonomic and functional diversity. We used previously unpublished stream insect community data collected prior to, and for the two years following, an extreme flood event that occurred in 2013. Using 14 northern Colorado mountain streams, we tested our framework and determined that taxonomic diversity metrics calculated using multidimensional methods resulted in concordance between taxonomic and functional diversity responses. By considering functional and taxonomic diversity together and using a gradient approach, we were able to identify some of the mechanisms driving species losses following this extreme disturbance event.

Temperature dependence of metabolic rate in tropical and temperate aquatic insects: Support for the Climate Variability Hypothesis in mayflies but not stoneflies

A fundamental gap in climate change vulnerability research is an understanding of the relative thermal sensitivity of ectotherms. Aquatic insects are vital to stream ecosystem function and biodiversity but insufficiently studied with respect to their thermal physiology. With global temperatures rising at an unprecedented rate, it is imperative that we know how aquatic insects respond to increasing temperature and whether these responses vary among taxa, latitudes, and elevations. We evaluated the thermal sensitivity of standard metabolic rate in stream-dwelling baetid mayflies and perlid stoneflies across a ~2,000 m elevation gradient in the temperate Rocky Mountains in Colorado, USA, and the tropical Andes in Napo, Ecuador. We used temperature-controlled water baths and microrespirometry to estimate changes in oxygen consumption. Tropical mayflies generally exhibited greater thermal sensitivity in metabolism compared to temperate mayflies; tropical mayfly metabolic rates increased more rapidly with temperature and the insects more frequently exhibited behavioral signs of thermal stress. By contrast, temperate and tropical stoneflies did not clearly differ. Varied responses to temperature among baetid mayflies and perlid stoneflies may reflect differences in evolutionary history or ecological roles as herbivores and predators, respectively. Our results show that there is physiological variation across elevations and species and that low-elevation tropical mayflies may be especially imperiled by climate warming. Given such variation among species, broad generalizations about the vulnerability of tropical ectotherms should be made more cautiously.

Trait-based ecology at large scales: Assessing functional trait correlations, phylogenetic constraints and spatial variability using open data

The growing use of functional traits in ecological research has brought new insights into biodiversity responses to global environmental change. However, further progress depends on overcoming three major challenges involving (a) statistical correlations between traits, (b) phylogenetic constraints on the combination of traits possessed by any single species, and (c) spatial effects on trait structure and trait-environment relationships. Here, we introduce a new framework for quantifying trait correlations, phylogenetic constraints and spatial variability at large scales by combining openly available species' trait, occurrence and phylogenetic data with gridded, high-resolution environmental layers and computational modelling. Our approach is suitable for use among a wide range of taxonomic groups inhabiting terrestrial, marine and freshwater habitats. We demonstrate its application using freshwater macroinvertebrate data from 35 countries in Europe. We identified a subset of available macroinvertebrate traits, corresponding to a life-history model with axes of resistance, resilience and resource use, as relatively unaffected by correlations and phylogenetic constraints. Trait structure responded more consistently to environmental variation than taxonomic structure, regardless of location. A re-analysis of existing data on macroinvertebrate communities of European alpine streams supported this conclusion, and demonstrated that occurrence-based functional diversity indices are highly sensitive to the traits included in their calculation. Overall, our findings suggest that the search for quantitative trait-environment relationships using single traits or simple combinations of multiple traits is unlikely to be productive. Instead, there is a need to embrace the value of conceptual frameworks linking community responses to environmental change via traits which correspond to the axes of life-history models. Through a novel integration of tools and databases, our flexible framework can address this need.

River ecosystem conceptual models and non-perennial rivers: A critical review

Conceptual models underpin river ecosystem research. However, current models focus on continuously flowing rivers and few explicitly address characteristics such as flow cessation and drying. The applicability of existing conceptual models to nonperennial rivers that cease to flow (intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams, IRES) has not been evaluated. We reviewed 18 models, finding that they collectively describe main drivers of biogeochemical and ecological patterns and processes longitudinally (upstream-downstream), laterally (channel-riparian-floodplain), vertically (surface water-groundwater), and temporally across local and landscape scales. However, perennial rivers are longitudinally continuous while IRES are longitudinally discontinuous. Whereas perennial rivers have bidirectional lateral connections between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, in IRES, this connection is unidirectional for much of the time, from terrestrial-to-aquatic only. Vertical connectivity between surface and subsurface water occurs bidirectionally and is temporally consistent in perennial rivers. However, in IRES, this exchange is temporally variable, and can become unidirectional during drying or rewetting phases. Finally, drying adds another dimension of flow variation to be considered across temporal and spatial scales in IRES, much as flooding is considered as a temporally and spatially dynamic process in perennial rivers. Here, we focus on ways in which existing models could be modified to accommodate drying as a fundamental process that can alter these patterns and processes across spatial and temporal dimensions in streams. This perspective is needed to support river science and management in our era of rapid global change, including increasing duration, frequency, and occurrence of drying.

A global perspective on tropical montane rivers

Tropical montane rivers (TMR) are born in tropical mountains, descend through montane forests, and feed major rivers, floodplains, and oceans. They are characterized by rapid temperature clines and varied flow disturbance regimes, both of which promote habitat heterogeneity, high biological diversity and endemism, and distinct organisms' life-history adaptations. Production, transport, and processing of sediments, nutrients, and carbon are key ecosystem processes connecting high-elevation streams with lowland floodplains, in turn influencing soil fertility and biotic productivity downstream. TMR provide key ecosystem services to hundreds of millions of people in tropical nations. In light of existing human-induced disturbances, including climate change, TMR can be used as natural model systems to examine the effects of rapid changes in abiotic drivers and their influence on biodiversity and ecosystem function.

Designing flows to enhance ecosystem functioning in heavily altered rivers

More than a century of dam construction and water development in the western United States has led to extensive ecological alteration of rivers. Growing interest in improving river function is compelling practitioners to consider ecological restoration when managing dams and water extraction. We developed an Ecological Response Model (ERM) for the Cache la Poudre River, northern Colorado, USA, to illuminate effects of current and possible future water management and climate change. We used empirical data and modeled interactions among multiple ecosystem components to capture system-wide insights not possible with the unintegrated models commonly used in environmental assessments. The ERM results showed additional flow regime modification would further alter the structure and function of Poudre River aquatic and riparian ecosystems due to multiple and interacting stressors. Model predictions illustrated that specific peak flow magnitudes in spring and early summer are critical for substrate mobilization, dynamic channel morphology, and overbank flows, with strong subsequent effects on instream and riparian biota that varied seasonally and spatially, allowing exploration of nuanced management scenarios. Instream biological indicators benefitted from higher and more stable base flows and high peak flows, but stable base flows with low peak flows were only half as effective to increase indicators. Improving base flows while reducing peak flows, as currently proposed for the Cache la Poudre River, would further reduce ecosystem function. Modeling showed that even presently depleted annual flow volumes can achieve substantially different ecological outcomes in designed flow scenarios, while still supporting social demands. Model predictions demonstrated that implementing designed flows in a natural pattern, with attention to base and peak flows, may be needed to preserve or improve ecosystem function of the Poudre River. Improved regulatory policies would include preservation of ecosystem-level, flow-related processes and adaptive management when water development projects are considered.

Validating anthropogenic threat maps as a tool for assessing river ecological integrity in Andean-Amazon basins

Anthropogenic threat maps are commonly used as a surrogate for the ecological integrity of rivers in freshwater conservation, but a clearer understanding of their relationships is required to develop proper management plans at large scales. Here, we developed and validated empirical models that link the ecological integrity of rivers to threat maps in a large, heterogeneous and biodiverse Andean–Amazon watershed. Through fieldwork, we recorded data on aquatic invertebrate community composition, habitat quality, and physical-chemical parameters to calculate the ecological integrity of 140 streams/rivers across the basin. Simultaneously, we generated maps that describe the location, extent, and magnitude of impact of nine anthropogenic threats to freshwater systems in the basin. Through seven-fold cross-validation procedure, we found that regression models based on anthropogenic threats alone have limited power for predicting the ecological integrity of rivers. However, the prediction accuracy improved when environmental predictors (slope and elevation) were included, and more so when the predictions were carried out at a coarser scale, such as microbasins. Moreover, anthropogenic threats that amplify the incidence of other pressures (roads, human settlements and oil activities) are the most relevant predictors of ecological integrity. We concluded that threat maps can offer an overall picture of the ecological integrity pattern of the basin, becoming a useful tool for broad-scale conservation planning for freshwater ecosystems. While it is always advisable to have finer scale in situ measurements of ecological integrity, our study shows that threat maps provide fast and cost-effective results, which so often are needed for pressing management and conservation actions.

Modeling Flow-Ecology Responses in the Anthropocene: Challenges for Sustainable Riverine Management

Climate change will increase water stress in many regions placing greater pressures on rivers to meet human and ecological water needs. Managing rivers experiencing water stress requires a fundamental understanding of how ecosystem processes and functions respond to natural and anthropogenic drivers of flow variability and change. The field of environmental flows meets this need by defining “flow-ecology” relationships—mathematical models linking ecological characteristics and dynamics to the underlying flow regime. However, because these relationships are most often based on historical hydrologic regimes, they implicitly assume climatic stationarity. A fundamental challenge in the Anthropocene is how to model flow-ecology relationships such that the effects of nonstationarity can be captured. In the present article, we introduce a novel approach that addresses these shortcomings and show its utility through a series of conceptual and empirical examples. The framework incorporates ecological dynamics and uncertain future hydrologic conditions, as well as nonstationarity itself, thereby providing a viable framework for modeling flow-ecology responses to inform water management in a rapidly changing climate.

Genetic diversity and gene flow decline with elevation in montane mayflies

Montane environments around the globe are biodiversity 'hotspots' and important reservoirs of genetic diversity. Montane species are also typically more vulnerable to environmental change than their low-elevation counterparts due to restricted ranges and dispersal limitations. Here we focus on two abundant congeneric mayflies (Baetis bicaudatus and B. tricaudatus) from montane streams over an elevation gradient spanning 1400 m. Using single-nucleotide polymorphism genotypes, we measured population diversity and vulnerability in these two species by: (i) describing genetic diversity and population structure across elevation gradients to identify mechanisms underlying diversification; (ii) performing spatially explicit landscape analyses to identify environmental drivers of differentiation; and (iii) identifying outlier loci hypothesized to underlie adaptive divergence. Differences in the extent of population structure in these species were evident depending upon their position along the elevation gradient. Heterozygosity, effective population sizes and gene flow all declined with increasing elevation, resulting in substantial population structure in the higher elevation species (B. bicaudatus). At lower elevations, populations of both species are more genetically similar, indicating ongoing gene flow. Isolation by distance was detected at lower elevations only, whereas landscape barriers better predicted genetic distance at higher elevations. At higher elevations, dispersal was restricted due to landscape effects, resulting in greater population isolation. Our results demonstrate differentiation over small spatial scales along an elevation gradient, and highlight the importance of preserving genetic diversity in more isolated high-elevation populations.

Vulnerability of stream community composition and function to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change across ecoregions in the western United States

Shifts in biodiversity and ecological processes in stream ecosystems in response to rapid climate change will depend on how numerically and functionally dominant aquatic insect species respond to changes in stream temperature and hydrology. Across 253 minimally perturbed streams in eight ecoregions in the western USA, we modeled the distribution of 88 individual insect taxa in relation to existing combinations of maximum summer temperature, mean annual streamflow, and their interaction. We used a heat map approach along with downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projections of warming and streamflow change to estimate site-specific extirpation likelihood for each taxon, allowing estimation of whole-community change in streams across these ecoregions. Conservative climate change projections indicate a 30-40% loss of taxa in warmer, drier ecoregions and 10-20% loss in cooler, wetter ecoregions where taxa are relatively buffered from projected warming and hydrologic change. Differential vulnerability of taxa with key functional foraging roles in processing basal resources suggests that climate change has the potential to modify stream trophic structure and function (e.g., alter rates of detrital decomposition and algal consumption), particularly in warmer and drier ecoregions. We show that streamflow change is equally as important as warming in projected risk to stream community composition and that the relative threat posed by these two fundamental drivers varies across ecoregions according to projected gradients of temperature and hydrologic change. Results also suggest that direct human modification of streams through actions such as water abstraction is likely to further exacerbate loss of taxa and ecosystem alteration, especially in drying climates. Management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on stream ecosystems or to proactively adapt to them will require regional calibration, due to geographic variation in insect sensitivity and in exposure to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change.

Cryptic species diversity reveals biogeographic support for the 'mountain passes are higher in the tropics' hypothesis

The 'mountain passes are higher in the tropics' (MPHT) hypothesis posits that reduced climate variability at low latitudes should select for narrower thermal tolerances, lower dispersal and smaller elevational ranges compared with higher latitudes. These latitudinal differences could increase species richness at low latitudes, but that increase may be largely cryptic, because physiological and dispersal traits isolating populations might not correspond to morphological differences. Yet previous tests of the MPHT hypothesis have not addressed cryptic diversity. We use integrative taxonomy, combining morphology (6136 specimens) and DNA barcoding (1832 specimens) to compare the species richness, cryptic diversity and elevational ranges of mayflies (Ephemeroptera) in the Rocky Mountains (Colorado; approx. 40°N) and the Andes (Ecuador; approx. 0°). We find higher species richness and smaller elevational ranges in Ecuador than Colorado, but only after quantifying and accounting for cryptic diversity. The opposite pattern is found when comparing diversity based on morphology alone, underscoring the importance of uncovering cryptic species to understand global biodiversity patterns.

Common core themes in geomorphic, ecological, and social systems

Core themes of geomorphology include: open systems and connectivity; feedbacks and complexity; spatial differentiation of dominant physical processes within a landscape; and legacy effects of historical human use of resources. Core themes of ecology include: open systems and connectivity; hierarchical, heterogeneous, dynamic, and context-dependent characteristics of ecological patterns and processes; nonlinearity, thresholds, hysteresis, and resilience within ecosystems; and human effects. Core themes of environmental governance include: architecture of institutions and decision-making; agency, or ability of actors to prescribe behavior of people in relation to the environment; adaptiveness of social groups to environmental change; accountability and legitimacy of systems of governance; allocation of and access to resources; and thresholds and feedback loops within environmental policy. Core themes common to these disciplines include connectivity, feedbacks, tipping points or thresholds, and resiliency. Emphasizing these points of disciplinary overlap can facilitate interdisciplinary understanding of complex systems, as well as more effective management of landscapes and ecosystems by highlighting drivers of change within systems. We use a previously published conceptual framework to examine how these core themes can be integrated into interdisciplinary research for human-landscape systems via the example of a river.

Understanding human-landscape interactions in the "Anthropocene"

This article summarizes the primary outcomes of an interdisciplinary workshop in 2010, sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation, focused on developing key questions and integrative themes for advancing the science of human-landscape systems. The workshop was a response to a grand challenge identified recently by the U.S. National Research Council (2010a)--"How will Earth's surface evolve in the "Anthropocene?"--suggesting that new theories and methodological approaches are needed to tackle increasingly complex human-landscape interactions in the new era. A new science of human-landscape systems recognizes the interdependence of hydro-geomorphological, ecological, and human processes and functions. Advances within a range of disciplines spanning the physical, biological, and social sciences are therefore needed to contribute toward interdisciplinary research that lies at the heart of the science. Four integrative research themes were identified--thresholds/tipping points, time scales and time lags, spatial scales and boundaries, and feedback loops--serving as potential focal points around which theory can be built for human-landscape systems. Implementing the integrative themes requires that the research communities: (1) establish common metrics to describe and quantify human, biological, and geomorphological systems; (2) develop new ways to integrate diverse data and methods; and (3) focus on synthesis, generalization, and meta-analyses, as individual case studies continue to accumulate. Challenges to meeting these needs center on effective communication and collaboration across diverse disciplines spanning the natural and social scientific divide. Creating venues and mechanisms for sustained focused interdisciplinary collaborations, such as synthesis centers, becomes extraordinarily important for advancing the science.

Incorporating traits in aquatic biomonitoring to enhance causal diagnosis and prediction

The linkage of trait responses to stressor gradients has potential to expand biomonitoring approaches beyond traditional taxonomically based assessments that identify ecological effect to provide a causal diagnosis. Traits-based information may have several advantages over taxonomically based methods. These include providing mechanistic linkages of biotic responses to environmental conditions, consistent descriptors or metrics across broad spatial scales, more seasonal stability compared with taxonomic measures, and seamless integration of traits-based analysis into assessment programs. A traits-based biomonitoring approach does not require a new biomonitoring framework, because contemporary biomonitoring programs gather the basic site-by-species composition matrices required to link community data to the traits database. Impediments to the adoption of traits-based biomonitoring relate to the availability, consistency, and applicability of existing trait data. For example, traits generalizations among taxa across biogeographical regions are rare, and no consensus exists relative to the required taxonomic resolution and methodology for traits assessment. Similarly, we must determine if traits form suites that are related to particular stressor effects, and whether significant variation of traits occurs among allopatric populations. Finally, to realize the potential of traits-based approaches in biomonitoring, a concerted effort to standardize terminology is required, along with the establishment of protocols to ease the sharing and merging of broad, geographical trait information.

A structured and dynamic framework to advance traits-based theory and prediction in ecology

Predicting changes in community composition and ecosystem function in a rapidly changing world is a major research challenge in ecology. Traits-based approaches have elicited much recent interest, yet individual studies are not advancing a more general, predictive ecology. Significant progress will be facilitated by adopting a coherent theoretical framework comprised of three elements: an underlying trait distribution, a performance filter defining the fitness of traits in different environments, and a dynamic projection of the performance filter along some environmental gradient. This framework allows changes in the trait distribution and associated modifications to community composition or ecosystem function to be predicted across time or space. The structure and dynamics of the performance filter specify two key criteria by which we judge appropriate quantitative methods for testing traits-based hypotheses. Bayesian multilevel models, dynamical systems models and hybrid approaches meet both these criteria and have the potential to meaningfully advance traits-based ecology.

Shifting dominance of riparian Populus and Tamarix along gradients of flow alteration in western North American rivers

Tamarix ramosissima is a naturalized, nonnative plant species which has become widespread along riparian corridors throughout the western United States. We test the hypothesis that the distribution and success of Tamarix result from human modification of river-flow regimes. We conducted a natural experiment in eight ecoregions in arid and semiarid portions of the western United States, measuring Tamarix and native Populus recruitment and abundance at 64 sites along 13 perennial rivers spanning a range of altered flow regimes. We quantified biologically relevant attributes of flow alteration as an integrated measure (the index of flow modification, IFM), which was then used to explain between-site variation in abundance and recruitment of native and nonnative riparian plant species. We found the likelihood of successful recruitment of Tamarix to be highest along unregulated river reaches and to remain high across a gradient of regulated flows. Recruitment probability for Populus, in contrast, was highest under free-flowing conditions and declined abruptly under even slight flow modification (IFM > 0.1). Adult Tamarix was most abundant at intermediate levels of IFM. Populus abundance declined sharply with modest flow regulation (IFM > 0.2) and was not present at the most flow-regulated sites. Dominance of Tamarix was highest along rivers with the most altered flow regimes. At the 16 least regulated sites, Tamarix and Populus were equally abundant. Given observed patterns of Tamarix recruitment and abundance, we infer that Tamarix would likely have naturalized, spread, and established widely in riparian communities in the absence of dam construction, diversions, and flow regulation in western North America. However, Tamarix dominance over native species would likely be less extensive in the absence of human alteration of river-flow regimes. Restoration that combines active mechanical removal of established stands of Tamarix with a program of flow releases conducive to native species establishment and persistence is hypothesized to facilitate the codominance of Populus in reaches where it has become rare. Our findings have implications for planning flow-related stream restoration, for developing realistic expectations for yield on investment in prescribed flow releases, and for planning flow-related interventions that might be possible if control and management of invasive plant species along rivers is a goal.

The challenge of providing environmental flow rules to sustain river ecosystems

Accounting for natural differences in flow variability among rivers, and understanding the importance of this for the protection of freshwater biodiversity and maintenance of goods and services that rivers provide, is a great challenge for water managers and scientists. Nevertheless, despite considerable progress in understanding how flow variability sustains river ecosystems, there is a growing temptation to ignore natural system complexity in favor of simplistic, static, environmental flow "rules" to resolve pressing river management issues. We argue that such approaches are misguided and will ultimately contribute to further degradation of river ecosystems. In the absence of detailed empirical information of environmental flow requirements for rivers, we propose a generic approach that incorporates essential aspects of natural flow variability shared across particular classes of rivers that can be validated with empirical biological data and other information in a calibration process. We argue that this approach can bridge the gap between simple hydrological "rules of thumb" and more comprehensive environmental flow assessments and experimental flow restoration projects.

Geographic variation in patterns of nestedness among local stream fish assemblages in Virginia

Nestedness of faunal assemblages is a multi-scale phenomenon, potentially influenced by a variety of factors. Prior small-scale studies have found freshwater fish species assemblages to be nested along stream courses as a result of either selective colonization or extinction. However, within-stream gradients in temperature and other factors are correlated with the distributions of many fish species and may also contribute to nestedness. At a regional level, strongly nested patterns would require a consistent set of structuring mechanisms across streams, and correlation among species' tolerances of the environmental factors that influence distribution. Thus, nestedness should be negatively associated with the spatial extent of the region analyzed and positively associated with elevational gradients (a correlate of temperature and other environmental factors). We examined these relationships for the freshwater fishes of Virginia. Regions were defined within a spatial hierarchy and included whole river drainages, portions of drainages within physiographic provinces, and smaller subdrainages. In most cases, nestedness was significantly stronger in regions of smaller spatial extent and in regions characterized by greater topographic relief. Analysis of hydrologic variability and patterns of faunal turnover provided no evidence that inter-annual colonization/extinction dynamics contributed to elevational differences in nestedness. These results suggest that, at regional scales, nestedness is influenced by interactions between biotic and abiotic factors, and that the strongest nestedness is likely to occur where a small number of organizational processes predominate, i.show $132#e., over small spatial extents and regions exhibiting strong environmental gradients.

Movement behaviour and dynamics of an aquatic insect in a stream benthic landscape

Understanding not just where organisms move but how they move is an important step towards integrating animal behaviour into landscape ecology. The three-dimensional landscape of a streambed provides an ideal setting for forging this integration because of the persuasive effects of flowing water. In this study, we experimentally examine the larval movement of the case-building caddisfly Agapetus boulderensis Milne, 1936 in response to two current velocities in each of five levels of contrasting habitat types (i.e., smooth patches that facilitate movement and thick algal patches that constrain movement). Detailed behavioural observations showed that larvae employed two distinctly different strategies of movement in different current velocities: faster crawling and slower pivoting. Our results suggest that individual decision-making between crawling and pivoting is related to the magnitude of current velocity across the streambed, and the frequency at which larvae employ these behaviours translates into differential movement rates and directions. Strong concordance between a conceptual model and our results supports the notion that the presence of structural "nonhabitat" patches at high current velocities may create areas of local flow interruption and refugia. This, in turn, plays an important role in eliciting either crawling or pivoting and in shaping patterns and directions of larval movement, and by extension resource acquisition.

Toward a mechanistic understanding and prediction of biotic homogenization

The widespread replacement of native species with cosmopolitan, nonnative species is homogenizing the global fauna and flora. While the empirical study of biotic homogenization is substantial and growing, theoretical aspects have yet to be explored. Consequently, the breadth of possible ecological mechanisms that can shape current and future patterns and rates of homogenization remain largely unknown. Here, we develop a conceptual model that describes 14 potential scenarios by which species invasions and/or extinctions can lead to various trajectories of biotic homogenization (increased community similarity) or differentiation (decreased community similarity); we then use a simulation approach to explore the model's predictions. We found changes in community similarity to vary with the type and number of nonnative and native species, the historical degree of similarity among the communities, and, to a lesser degree, the richness of the recipient communities. Homogenization is greatest when similar species invade communities, causing either no extinction or differential extinction of native species. The model predictions are consistent with current empirical data for fish, bird, and plant communities and therefore may represent the dominant mechanisms of contemporary homogenization. We present a unifying model illustrating how the balance between invading and extinct species dictates the outcome of biotic homogenization. We conclude by discussing a number of critical but largely unrecognized issues that bear on the empirical study of biotic homogenization, including the importance of spatial scale, temporal scale, and data resolution. We argue that the study of biotic homogenization needs to be placed in a more mechanistic and predictive framework in order for studies to provide adequate guidance in conservation efforts to maintain regional distinctness of the global biota.

Redundancy among three herbivorous insects across an experimental current velocity gradient

We conducted streamside experiments to determine if the ability of herbivorous insects to remove algal periphyton varies with local current velocity. We used two mayfly species (Baetis bicaudatusand Drunella grandis) and one caddisfly species (Glossosoma verdona), which differ from one another in body morphology and mobility. Periphyton was grown for 30 days on ceramic tiles in constant velocity to create similar initial forage conditions for grazers. Tiles were transferred to three velocity regimes characteristic of the natural streambed: slow (3-5 cm s(-1)), medium (15-20 cm s(-1)) and fast (32-41 cm s(-1)). Four grazer treatments (Baetis, Drunella, and Glossosoma alone, and all species combined) were repeated for each velocity treatment to isolate the effect of local current on grazer ability to crop periphyton. Grazers differed in their abilities to remove periphyton across current treatments. Glossosoma removed significantly (P<0.05) more periphyton at fast versus either slow or medium velocities; Baetis showed a similar (but non-significant) trend; and, Drunella always removed about 75% of periphyton, irrespective of current. At fast current, periphyton removal was equivalent among the species. At medium current, Drunella removed significantly more than both Baetis and Glossosoma, whereas at slow current, Drunella removed more than Baetis, which removed more than Glossosoma. Periphyton removal under the combined three-grazer treatment was similar qualitatively to the combined effects of individual grazers. More periphyton tended to be removed as current increased, with the fast versus slow contrast showing marginal significance (P=0.10). Under all current regimes, the quantity of periphyton removed did not differ from the null model expectation of simple additive effects among individual grazers (i.e., no facilitation or inhibition). These experiments show that for some species, herbivory varies with current, which suggests that the herbivore "function" of cropping periphyton may vary with the environmental context of local current. Under some local velocities, however, different herbivore species "function" similarly and are potentially redundant with respect to periphytic removal. In naturally heterogeneous streams characterized by sharp gradients in local current velocity, we expect current-dependent species interactions to be common and at least partially contribute to intra-guild co-existence of species.

Ecological response to and management of increased flooding caused by climate change

River channels and their flood plains are among the most naturally dynamic ecosystems on earth, in large part due to periodic flooding. The components of a river's natural flood regime (magnitude, frequency, duration and timing of peak flows) interact to maintain great habitat heterogeneity and to promote high species diversity and ecosystem productivity. Flood regimes vary within and among rivers, depending on catchment size, geology and regional hydroclimatology. Geographic variation in contemporary flood regimes results in river-to-river variation in ecosystem structure, and therefore in potential river ecosystem response to increased future flooding. The greater the deviation in flood regime from contemporary or recent historical conditions, the greater the expected ecological alteration. Ecological response will also depend on how extensively humans have altered natural river dynamics through land-use practices. Examples of human-caused changes in flood regime (e.g. urbanization, agricultural practices) provide analogues to explore the ecological implications of region-specific climate change. In many settings where humans have severely modified rivers (e.g. through leveeing), more frequent larger floods will work to re-establish connections with severed flood-plain and riparian wetlands in human-dominated river valleys. Developing and implementing non-structural flood-management policies based on ecological principles can benefit river ecosystems, as well as human society.

Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100

Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100

Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.