Controlled experiment finds no detectable citation bump from Twitter promotion

Multiple studies across a variety of scientific disciplines have shown that the number of times that a paper is shared on Twitter (now called X) is correlated with the number of citations that paper receives. However, these studies were not designed to answer whether tweeting about scientific papers causes an increase in citations, or whether they were simply highlighting that some papers have higher relevance, importance or quality and are therefore both tweeted about more and cited more. The authors of this study are leading science communicators on Twitter from several life science disciplines, with substantially higher follower counts than the average scientist, making us uniquely placed to address this question. We conducted a three-year-long controlled experiment, randomly selecting five articles published in the same month and journal, and randomly tweeting one while retaining the others as controls. This process was repeated for 10 articles from each of 11 journals, recording Altmetric scores, number of tweets, and citation counts before and after tweeting. Randomization tests revealed that tweeted articles were downloaded 2.6-3.9 times more often than controls immediately after tweeting, and retained significantly higher Altmetric scores (+81%) and number of tweets (+105%) three years after tweeting. However, while some tweeted papers were cited more than their respective control papers published in the same journal and month, the overall increase in citation counts after three years (+7% for Web of Science and +12% for Google Scholar) was not statistically significant (p > 0.15). Therefore while discussing science on social media has many professional and societal benefits (and has been a lot of fun), increasing the citation rate of a scientist's papers is likely not among them.

Advances in remote sensing of emperor penguins: first multi-year time series documenting trends in the global population

Like many polar animals, emperor penguin populations are challenging to monitor because of the species' life history and remoteness. Consequently, it has been difficult to establish its global status, a subject important to resolve as polar environments change. To advance our understanding of emperor penguins, we combined remote sensing, validation surveys and using Bayesian modelling, we estimated a comprehensive population trajectory over a recent 10-year period, encompassing the entirety of the species' range. Reported as indices of abundance, our study indicates with 81% probability that there were fewer adult emperor penguins in 2018 than in 2009, with a posterior median decrease of 9.6% (95% credible interval (CI) -26.4% to +9.4%). The global population trend was -1.3% per year over this period (95% CI = -3.3% to +1.0%) and declines probably occurred in four of eight fast ice regions, irrespective of habitat conditions. Thus far, explanations have yet to be identified regarding trends, especially as we observed an apparent population uptick toward the end of time series. Our work potentially establishes a framework for monitoring other Antarctic coastal species detectable by satellite, while promoting a need for research to better understand factors driving biotic changes in the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

Urban living can rescue Darwin's finches from the lethal effects of invasive vampire flies

Human activity changes multiple factors in the environment, which can have positive or negative synergistic effects on organisms. However, few studies have explored the causal effects of multiple anthropogenic factors, such as urbanization and invasive species, on animals and the mechanisms that mediate these interactions. This study examines the influence of urbanization on the detrimental effect of invasive avian vampire flies (Philornis downsi) on endemic Darwin's finches in the Galápagos Islands. We experimentally manipulated nest fly abundance in urban and non-urban locations and then characterized nestling health, fledging success, diet, and gene expression patterns related to host defense. Fledging success of non-parasitized nestlings from urban (79%) and non-urban (75%) nests did not differ significantly. However, parasitized, non-urban nestlings lost more blood, and fewer nestlings survived (8%) compared to urban nestlings (50%). Stable isotopic values (δ15 N) from urban nestling feces were higher than those from non-urban nestlings, suggesting that urban nestlings are consuming more protein. δ15 N values correlated negatively with parasite abundance, which suggests that diet might influence host defenses (e.g., tolerance and resistance). Parasitized, urban nestlings differentially expressed genes within pathways associated with red blood cell production (tolerance) and pro-inflammatory response (innate immunological resistance), compared to parasitized, non-urban nestlings. In contrast, parasitized non-urban nestlings differentially expressed genes within pathways associated with immunoglobulin production (adaptive immunological resistance). Our results suggest that urban nestlings are investing more in pro-inflammatory responses to resist parasites but also recovering more blood cells to tolerate blood loss. Although non-urban nestlings are mounting an adaptive immune response, it is likely a last effort by the immune system rather than an effective defense against avian vampire flies since few nestlings survived.

Where to live? Landfast sea ice shapes emperor penguin habitat around Antarctica

Predicting species survival in the face of climate change requires understanding the drivers that influence their distribution. Emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) incubate and rear chicks on landfast sea ice, whose extent, dynamics, and quality are expected to vary substantially due to climate change. Until recently, this species' continent-wide observations were scarce, and knowledge on their distribution and habitat limited. Advances in satellite imagery now allow their observation and characterization of habitats across Antarctica at high resolution. Using circumpolar high-resolution satellite images, unique fast ice metrics, and geographic and biological factors, we identified diverse penguin habitats across the continent, with no significant difference between areas with penguins or not. There is a clear geographic partitioning of colonies with respect to their defining habitat characteristics, indicating possible behavioral plasticity among different metapopulations. This coincides with geographic structures found in previous genetic studies. Given projections of quasi-extinction for this species in 2100, this study provides essential information for conservation measures.

Remote sensing techniques for automated marine mammals detection: a review of methods and current challenges

Marine mammals are under pressure from multiple threats, such as global climate change, bycatch, and vessel collisions. In this context, more frequent and spatially extensive surveys for abundance and distribution studies are necessary to inform conservation efforts. Marine mammal surveys have been performed visually from land, ships, and aircraft. These methods can be costly, logistically challenging in remote locations, dangerous to researchers, and disturbing to the animals. The growing use of imagery from satellite and unoccupied aerial systems (UAS) can help address some of these challenges, complementing crewed surveys and allowing for more frequent and evenly distributed surveys, especially for remote locations. However, manual counts in satellite and UAS imagery remain time and labor intensive, but the automation of image analyses offers promising solutions. Here, we reviewed the literature for automated methods applied to detect marine mammals in satellite and UAS imagery. The performance of studies is quantitatively compared with metrics that evaluate false positives and false negatives from automated detection against manual counts of animals, which allows for a better assessment of the impact of miscounts in conservation contexts. In general, methods that relied solely on statistical differences in the spectral responses of animals and their surroundings performed worse than studies that used convolutional neural networks (CNN). Despite mixed results, CNN showed promise, and its use and evaluation should continue. Overall, while automation can reduce time and labor, more research is needed to improve the accuracy of automated counts. With the current state of knowledge, it is best to use semi-automated approaches that involve user revision of the output. These approaches currently enable the best tradeoff between time effort and detection accuracy. Based on our analysis, we identified thermal infrared UAS imagery as a future research avenue for marine mammal detection and also recommend the further exploration of object-based image analysis (OBIA). Our analysis also showed that past studies have focused on the automated detection of baleen whales and pinnipeds and that there is a gap in studies looking at toothed whales, polar bears, sirenians, and mustelids.

Ice matters: Life-history strategies of two Antarctic seals dictate climate change eventualities in the Weddell Sea

The impacts of climate change in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are not uniform and ice-obligate species with dissimilar life-history characteristics will likely respond differently to their changing ecosystems. We use a unique data set of Weddell Leptonychotes weddellii and crabeater seals' (CESs) Lobodon carcinophaga breeding season distribution in the Weddell Sea, determined from satellite imagery. We contrast the theoretical climate impacts on both ice-obligate predators who differ in life-history characteristics: CESs are highly specialized Antarctic krill Euphausia superba predators and breed in the seasonal pack ice; Weddell seals (WESs) are generalist predators and breed on comparatively stable fast ice. We used presence-absence data and a suite of remotely sensed environmental variables to build habitat models. Each of the environmental predictors is multiplied by a 'climate change score' based on known responses to climate change to create a 'change importance product'. Results show CESs are more sensitive to climate change than WESs. Crabeater seals prefer to breed close to krill, and the compounding effects of changing sea ice concentrations and sea surface temperatures, the proximity to krill and abundance of stable breeding ice, can influence their post-breeding foraging success and ultimately their future breeding success. But in contrast to the Ross Sea, here WESs prefer to breed closer to larger colonies of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri). This suggests that the Weddell Sea may currently be prey-abundant, allowing the only two air-breathing Antarctic silverfish predators (Pleuragramma antarctica) (WESs and emperor penguins) to breed closer to each other. This is the first basin-scale, region-specific comparison of breeding season habitat in these two key Antarctic predators based on real-world data to compare climate change responses. This work shows that broad-brush, basin-scale approaches to understanding species-specific responses to climate change are not always appropriate, and regional models are needed-especially when designing marine protected areas.

The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change

Species extinction risk is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change, making it urgent to protect vulnerable species through legal frameworks in order to facilitate conservation actions that help mitigate risk. Here, we discuss fundamental concepts for assessing climate change risks to species using the example of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), currently being considered for protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). This species forms colonies on Antarctic sea ice, which is projected to significantly decline due to ongoing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin colonies under different GHG emission scenarios using a climate-dependent meta-population model including the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies. Assessments for listing species under the ESA require information about how species resiliency, redundancy and representation (3Rs) will be affected by threats within the foreseeable future. Our results show that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi-extinct by 2100. We conclude that the species should be listed as threatened under the ESA.

Insights from the first global population estimate of Weddell seals in Antarctica

The Weddell seal is one of the best-studied marine mammals in the world, owing to a multidecadal demographic effort in the southernmost part of its range. Despite their occurrence around the Antarctic coastline, we know little about larger scale patterns in distribution, population size, or structure. We combined high-resolution satellite imagery from 2011, crowd-sourcing, and habitat modeling to report the first global population estimate for the species and environmental factors that influence its distribution. We estimated ~202,000 (95% confidence interval: 85,345 to 523,140) sub-adult and adult female seals, with proximate ocean depth and fast-ice variables as factors explaining spatial prevalence. Distances to penguin colonies were associated with seal presence, but only emperor penguin population size had a strong negative relationship. The small, estimated population size relative to previous estimates and the seals’ nexus with trophic competitors indicates that a community ecology approach is required in efforts to monitor the Southern Ocean ecosystem.

The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins

The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2°C above preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Until recently, ensembles of coupled climate simulations producing temporal dynamics of climate en route to stable global mean temperature at 1.5 and 2°C above preindustrial levels were not available. Hence, the few studies that have assessed the ecological impact of the Paris Agreement used ad-hoc approaches. The development of new specific mitigation climate simulations now provides an unprecedented opportunity to inform ecological impact assessments. Here we project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) colonies under new climate change scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement objectives using a climate-dependent-metapopulation model. Our model includes various dispersal behaviors so that penguins could modulate climate effects through movement and habitat selection. Under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, we show that 80% of the colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100, thus the total abundance of emperor penguins is projected to decline by at least 81% relative to its initial size, regardless of dispersal abilities. In contrast, if the Paris Agreement objectives are met, viable emperor penguin refuges will exist in Antarctica, and only 19% and 31% colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100 under the Paris 1.5 and 2 climate scenarios respectively. As a result, the global population is projected to decline by at least by 31% under Paris 1.5 and 44% under Paris 2. However, population growth rates stabilize in 2060 such that the global population will be only declining at 0.07% under Paris 1.5 and 0.34% under Paris 2, thereby halting the global population decline. Hence, global climate policy has a larger capacity to safeguard the future of emperor penguins than their intrinsic dispersal abilities.

Polar bears from space: assessing satellite imagery as a tool to track Arctic wildlife

Development of efficient techniques for monitoring wildlife is a priority in the Arctic, where the impacts of climate change are acute and remoteness and logistical constraints hinder access. We evaluated high resolution satellite imagery as a tool to track the distribution and abundance of polar bears. We examined satellite images of a small island in Foxe Basin, Canada, occupied by a high density of bears during the summer ice-free season. Bears were distinguished from other light-colored spots by comparing images collected on different dates. A sample of ground-truthed points demonstrated that we accurately classified bears. Independent observers reviewed images and a population estimate was obtained using mark-recapture models. This estimate (N: 94; 95% Confidence Interval: 92-105) was remarkably similar to an abundance estimate derived from a line transect aerial survey conducted a few days earlier (N: 102; 95% CI: 69-152). Our findings suggest that satellite imagery is a promising tool for monitoring polar bears on land, with implications for use with other Arctic wildlife. Large scale applications may require development of automated detection processes to expedite review and analysis. Future research should assess the utility of multi-spectral imagery and examine sites with different environmental characteristics.

Addressing disparities in sudden cardiac arrest care and the underutilization of effective therapies

Sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) is the most common cause of death in the Unites States. Despite its major impact on public health, significant challenges exist at the patient, provider, public, and policy levels with respect to raising more widespread awareness and understanding of SCA risks, identifying patients at risk for SCA, addressing barriers to SCA care, and eliminating disparities in SCA care and outcomes. To address many of these challenges, the Duke Center for the Prevention of Sudden Cardiac Death at the Duke Clinical Research Institute (Durham, NC) held a think tank meeting on December 7, 2009, convening experts on this issue from clinical cardiology, cardiac electrophysiology, health policy and economics, the US Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the Agency for Health Care Research and Quality, and device and pharmaceutical manufacturers. The specific goals of the meeting were to examine existing educational tools on SCA for patients, health care providers, and the public and explore ways to enhance and disseminate these tools; to propose a framework for improved identification of patients at risk of SCA; and to review the latest data on disparities in SCA care and explore ways to reduce these disparities. This article summarizes the discussions that occurred at the meeting.