The role of governance in rewilding the United States to stem the biodiversity crisis

A critical but underattended feature of the biodiversity crisis is the contraction of geographic range experienced by most studied terrestrial vertebrates. In the United States, the primary policy tool for mitigating the biodiversity crisis is a federal law, the Endangered Species Act (ESA). For the past two decades, the federal agencies that administer the ESA have interpreted the act in a manner that precludes treating this geographic element of the crisis. Therefore, the burden of mitigating the biodiversity crisis largely falls on wildlife agencies within state government, which are obligated to operate on behalf of the interests of their constituents. We present survey research indicating that most constituents expect state agencies to prioritize species restoration over other activities, including hunting. This prioritization holds even among self-identified hunters, which is significant because state agencies often take the provisioning of hunting opportunity as their top priority. By prioritizing rewilding efforts that restore native species throughout portions of their historic range, state agencies could unify hunting and nonhunting constituents while simultaneously stemming the biodiversity crisis.

Physiological variables in machine learning QSARs allow for both cross-chemical and cross-species predictions

A major challenge in ecological risk assessment is estimating chemical-induced effects across taxa without species-specific testing. Where ecotoxicological data may be more challenging to gather, information on species physiology is more available for a broad range of taxa. Physiology is known to drive species sensitivity but understanding about the relative contribution of specific underlying processes is still elusive. Consequently, there remains a need to understand which physiological processes lead to differences in species sensitivity. The objective of our study was to utilize existing knowledge about organismal physiology to both understand and predict differences in species sensitivity. Machine learning models were trained to predict chemical- and species-specific endpoints as a function of both chemical fingerprints/descriptors and physiological properties represented by dynamic energy budget (DEB) parameters. We found that random forest models were able to predict chemical- and species-specific endpoints, and that DEB parameters were relatively important in the models, particularly for invertebrates. Our approach illuminates how physiological properties may drive species sensitivity, which will allow more realistic predictions of effects across species without the need for additional animal testing.

Systematics, biogeography and phylogenomics of northern bog lemmings (Cricetidae), cold-temperate rodents of conservation concern under global change

Northern bog lemmings, Mictomys (Synaptomys) borealis, are currently being assessed for protections under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. A major impediment to comprehensive evaluation is a deficiency of data towards understanding the biology of these rodents. Inherent rarity and scarce specimen sampling, despite a continent-wide distribution, has precluded our ability to implement modern methods for resolving taxonomy, evolutionary history, and investigating multiple other species traits. Here we use a maternally inherited locus (mitochondrial cytochrome b) and between 5,939 and 11,513 nuclear loci from reduced representation sequencing (ddRADseq) to investigate the evolutionary history of northern bog lemmings. We 1) qualify evidence based on morphological and early molecular studies for the genus assignment of Mictomys, 2) test the validity of multiple sub-species designations, 3) provide spatial and temporal historical biogeographic perspectives, and 4) discuss how incomplete sampling might influence conservation efforts. Both mitochondrial and nuclear datasets exhibit deep divergence and paraphyly between two recognized species, the northern (Mictomys borealis) and southern (Synaptomys cooperi) bog lemmings. Based on mtDNA, the geographically isolated subspecies (M. b. sphagnicola) was found to be divergent from all other specimens. The remainder of the species exhibited shallow intra-specific differentiation in mtDNA, however nuclear data supports genetic distinction consistent with four geographic subspecies. Recent coalescence of all northern bog lemmings (except for M. b. sphagnicola) reflects divergence in multiple refugia through the last glacial cycle, including a well-known coastal center of endemism and multiple regions south of continental ice-sheets. Regional lineages across North America suggest strong latitudinal displacement with global climate change, coupled with isolation-reconnection dynamics. This taxon suffers from a lack of modern samples through most of its distribution, severely limiting interpretation of ongoing evolutionary processes, particularly in southern portions of the species' range. Limited voucher specimen sampling of vulnerable populations could aid in rigorous conservation decision-making.

Partnerships, Lawsuits, and Competing Accountabilities in CCAA Agreements

Private lands are often critical for successful species conservation, and the US Fish and Wildlife Service has increasingly utilized voluntary Candidate Conservation Agreements with Assurances (CCAAs) as a strategy for promoting private land conservation. CCAAs, however, present a challenge where the FWS, with its history as a regulatory entity, must now engage landowners as conservation partners. There is a deep culture of distrust among landowners, who are often suspicious of engaging with the agency, making it necessary for the FWS to build trusting relationships. Furthermore, FWS decisions often face litigation in the courts, where they may be overturned. This creates a challenge for CCAAs, as the agency is pulled between landowner demands for greater flexibility and a court system that emphasizes rigid compliance to established rules and procedures. This study seeks to understand what factors influenced the flexibility of agency staff and officials as they navigate the process of negotiating CCAAs amidst these competing demands for accountability. Three cases of CCAA development are presented, each aiming to protect the habitat for the greater sage-grouse and ease the regulatory burden on ranching communities, should the grouse become a federally protected species. In addition to the well-documented need for trust-building and maintenance, the findings of the study highlight the importance of shared goals, the participation of trusted intermediary organizations, and as well as the meaningful support and investment of senior FWS leadership in exploring creative, innovative solutions.

Using life-history trait variation to inform ecological risk assessments for threatened and endangered plant species

Developing population models for assessing risks to terrestrial plant species listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) is challenging given a paucity of data on their life histories. The purpose of this study was to develop a novel approach for identifying relatively data-rich nonlisted species that could serve as representatives for species listed under the ESA in the development of population models to inform risk assessments. We used the USDA PLANTS Database, which provides data on plants present in the US territories, to create a list of herbaceous plants. A total of 8742 species was obtained, of which 344 were listed under the ESA. Using the most up-to-date phylogeny for vascular plants in combination with a database of matrix population models for plants (COMPADRE) and cluster analyses, we investigated how listed species were distributed across the plant phylogeny, grouped listed and nonlisted species according to their life history, and identified the traits distinguishing the clusters. We performed elasticity analyses to determine the relative sensitivity of population growth rate to perturbations of species' survival, growth, and reproduction and compared these across clusters and between listed and nonlisted species. We found that listed species were distributed widely across the plant phylogeny as well as clusters, suggesting that listed species do not share a common evolution or life-history characteristics that would make them uniquely vulnerable. Lifespan and age at maturity were more important for distinguishing clusters than were reproductive traits. For clusters that were intermediate in their lifespan, listed and nonlisted species responded similarly to perturbations of their life histories. However, for clusters at either extreme of lifespan, the response to survival perturbations varied depending on conservation status. These results can be used to guide the choice of representative species for population model development in the context of ecological risk assessment. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:213-223. © 2022 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Destroying and Restoring Critical Habitats of Endangered Killer Whales

Endangered species legislation in the United States and Canada aims to prevent extinction of species, in part by designating and protecting critical habitats essential to ensure survival and recovery. These strict laws prohibit adverse modification or destruction of critical habitat, respectively. Defining thresholds for such effects is challenging, especially for wholly aquatic taxa. Destruction of critical habitat (e.g., prey reduction and ocean noise) threatens the survival and recovery of the 75 members of the endangered southern resident killer whale population found in transboundary (Canada–United States) Pacific waters. The population's dynamics are now driven largely by the cumulative effects of prey limitation (e.g., the endangered Chinook salmon), anthropogenic noise and disturbance (e.g., reducing prey accessibility), and toxic contaminants, which are all forms of habitat degradation. It is difficult to define a single threshold beyond which habitat degradation becomes destruction, but multiple lines of evidence suggest that line may have been crossed already.

The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change

Species extinction risk is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change, making it urgent to protect vulnerable species through legal frameworks in order to facilitate conservation actions that help mitigate risk. Here, we discuss fundamental concepts for assessing climate change risks to species using the example of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), currently being considered for protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). This species forms colonies on Antarctic sea ice, which is projected to significantly decline due to ongoing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin colonies under different GHG emission scenarios using a climate-dependent meta-population model including the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies. Assessments for listing species under the ESA require information about how species resiliency, redundancy and representation (3Rs) will be affected by threats within the foreseeable future. Our results show that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi-extinct by 2100. We conclude that the species should be listed as threatened under the ESA.

The scope and severity of white-nose syndrome on hibernating bats in North America

Assessing the scope and severity of threats is necessary for evaluating impacts on populations to inform conservation planning. Quantitative threat assessment often requires monitoring programs that provide reliable data over relevant spatial and temporal scales, yet such programs can be difficult to justify until there is an apparent stressor. Leveraging efforts of wildlife management agencies to record winter counts of hibernating bats, we collated data for 5 species from over 200 sites across 27 U.S. states and 2 Canadian provinces from 1995 to 2018 to determine the impact of white-nose syndrome (WNS), a deadly disease of hibernating bats. We estimated declines of winter counts of bat colonies at sites where the invasive fungus that causes WNS (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) had been detected to assess the threat impact of WNS. Three species undergoing species status assessment by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Myotis septentrionalis, Myotis lucifugus, and Perimyotis subflavus) declined by more than 90%, which warrants classifying the severity of the WNS threat as extreme based on criteria used by NatureServe. The scope of the WNS threat as defined by NatureServe criteria was large (36% of Myotis lucifugus range) to pervasive (79% of Myotis septentrionalis range) for these species. Declines for 2 other species (Myotis sodalis and Eptesicus fuscus) were less severe but still qualified as moderate to serious based on NatureServe criteria. Data-sharing across jurisdictions provided a comprehensive evaluation of scope and severity of the threat of WNS and indicated regional differences that can inform response efforts at international, national, and state or provincial jurisdictions. We assessed the threat impact of an emerging infectious disease by uniting monitoring efforts across jurisdictional boundaries and demonstrated the importance of coordinated monitoring programs, such as the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat), for data-driven conservation assessments and planning.

Supporting habitat conservation with automated change detection in Google Earth Engine

A significant limitation in biodiversity conservation has been the effective implementation of laws and regulations that protect species' habitats from degradation. Flexible, efficient, and effective monitoring and enforcement methods are needed to help conservation policies realize their full benefit. As remote sensing data become more numerous and accessible, they can be used to identify and quantify land-cover changes and habitat loss. However, these data remain underused for systematic conservation monitoring in part because of a lack of simple tools. We adapted 2 algorithms that automatically identify differences between pairs of images. We used free, publicly available satellite data to evaluate their ability to rapidly detect land-cover changes in a variety of land-cover types. We compared algorithm predictions with ground-truthed results at 100 sites of known change in the United States. We also compared algorithm predictions to manually created polygons delineating anthropogenic change in 4 case studies involving imperiled species' habitat: oil and gas development in the range of the Greater Sage Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus); sand mining operations in the range of the dunes sagebrush lizard (Sceloporus arenicolus); loss of Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) coastal habitat after Hurricane Michael (2018); and residential development in St. Andrew beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus peninsularis) habitat. Both algorithms effectively discriminated between pixels corresponding to land-cover change and unchanged pixels as indicated by area under a receiver operating characteristic curve >0.90. The algorithm that was most effective differed among the case-study habitat types, and both effectively delineated habitat loss as indicated by low omission (min. = 0.0) and commission (min. = 0.0) rates, and moderate polygon overlap (max. = 47%). Our results showed how these algorithms can be used to help close the implementation gap of monitoring and enforcement in biodiversity conservation. We provide a free online tool that can be used to run these analyses (https://conservationist.io/habitatpatrol).

Genomic and phenotypic divergence informs translocation strategies for an endangered freshwater fish

Translocation, the movement of organisms for conservation purposes, can result in unintended introgression if genetic material flows between populations in new ways. The Bluemask Darter Etheostoma akatulo is a federally endangered species of freshwater fish inhabiting the Caney Fork River system and three of its tributaries (Collins River, Rocky River, and Cane Creek) in Tennessee. The current conservation strategy for Bluemask Darters involves translocating the progeny of broodstock from the Collins River (in the west) to the Calfkiller River (in the east) where the species had been extirpated. In this study, we use ddRAD sequence data from across the extant range to assess this translocation strategy in light of population structure, phylogeny, and demography. We also include museum specimen data to assess morphological variation among extant and extirpated populations. Our analyses reveal substantial genetic and phenotypic disparities between a western population in the Collins River and an eastern population encompassing the Rocky River, Cane Creek, and upper Caney Fork, the two of which shared common ancestry more than 100,000 years ago. Furthermore, morphological analyses classify 12 of 13 Calfkiller River specimens with phenotypes consistent with the eastern population. These results suggest that current translocations perturb the evolutionary boundaries between two delimited populations. Instead, we suggest that repopulating the Calfkiller River using juveniles from the Rocky River could balance conflicting signatures of demography, diversity, and divergence. Beyond conservation, the microgeographic structure of Bluemask Darter populations adds another puzzle to the phylogeography of the hyperdiverse freshwater fishes in eastern North America.

A new genus and species of fish blood fluke, Achorovermis testisinuosus gen. et sp. n. (Digenea: Aporocotylidae), infecting critically endangered smalltooth sawfish, Pristis pectinata (Rhinopristiformes: Pristidae) in the Gulf of Mexico

Achorovermis testisinuosus gen. et sp. n. (Digenea: Aporocotylidae) infects the heart of the smalltooth sawfish, Pristis pectinata Latham (Rhinopristiformes: Pristidae), in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Specimens of the new genus, along with the other blood flukes that infect batoids are similar by having an inverse U-shaped intestine and a curving testis as well as by lacking tegumental spines. The new genus differs from all of the other blood flukes infecting batoids by having an elongate body (>50 × longer than wide), a testis having >100 curves, and an ovary wholly anterior to the uterus. It differs from Ogawaia glaucostegi Cutmore, Cribb et Yong, 2018, the only other blood fluke infecting a rhinopristiform, by having a body that is >50 × (vs <30 ×) longer than wide, a testis that is >75 × (vs <40 ×) longer than wide and has >100 (vs <70) curves, an ovary wholly anterior to (vs lateral and dorsal to) the seminal vesicle, a uterus wholly posterior to (vs overlapping and lateral to both) the testis and ovary, and a sinuous (vs convoluted) uterus. The new species joins a small group of chondrichthyan blood flukes that lack tegumental spines: O. glaucostegi, Orchispirium heterovitellatum Madhavi et Rao, 1970, Myliobaticola richardheardi Bullard et Jensen, 2008, Electrovermis zappum Warren et Bullard, 2019. Blood flukes infecting batoids are further unique by having a curving testis. That is, the blood flukes infecting species within Selachii are morphologically distinct from those infecting species within the Batoidea (excluding Gymnurahemecus bulbosus Warren et Bullard, 2019). Based on the morphological similarity, we suspect that the new species shares a recent common ancestor with O. glaucostegi. The discovery of the new species brings the total number of chondrichthyan blood flukes to 11 species assigned to nine genera.

Species recovery and recolonization of past habitats: lessons for science and conservation from sea otters in estuaries

Recovering species are often limited to much smaller areas than they historically occupied. Conservation planning for the recovering species is often based on this limited range, which may simply be an artifact of where the surviving population persisted. Southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) were hunted nearly to extinction but recovered from a small remnant population on a remote stretch of the California outer coast, where most of their recovery has occurred. However, studies of recently-recolonized estuaries have revealed that estuaries can provide southern sea otters with high quality habitats featuring shallow waters, high production and ample food, limited predators, and protected haul-out opportunities. Moreover, sea otters can have strong effects on estuarine ecosystems, fostering seagrass resilience through their consumption of invertebrate prey. Using a combination of literature reviews, population modeling, and prey surveys we explored the former estuarine habitats outside the current southern sea otter range to determine if these estuarine habitats can support healthy sea otter populations. We found the majority of studies and conservation efforts have focused on populations in exposed, rocky coastal habitats. Yet historical evidence indicates that sea otters were also formerly ubiquitous in estuaries. Our habitat-specific population growth model for California's largest estuary-San Francisco Bay-determined that it alone can support about 6,600 sea otters, more than double the 2018 California population. Prey surveys in estuaries currently with (Elkhorn Slough and Morro Bay) and without (San Francisco Bay and Drakes Estero) sea otters indicated that the availability of prey, especially crabs, is sufficient to support healthy sea otter populations. Combining historical evidence with our results, we show that conservation practitioners could consider former estuarine habitats as targets for sea otter and ecosystem restoration. This study reveals the importance of understanding how recovering species interact with all the ecosystems they historically occupied, both for improved conservation of the recovering species and for successful restoration of ecosystem functions and processes.

Comparative Analysis of Plant Demographic Traits Across Species of Different Conservation Concern: Implications for Pesticide Risk Assessment

Pesticide risk assessment for "listed" (threatened and endangered) plant species is hampered by a lack of quantitative demographic information. Demographic information for nonlisted plant species could provide risk-assessment data and inform recovery plans for listed species; however, it is unclear how representative demography of the former would be for the latter. We performed a comparison of plant demographic traits and elasticity metrics to explore how similar these are between listed and nonlisted species. We used transition matrices from the COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database to calculate population growth rate (λ), net reproductive rate (R_o ), generation time (T_g ), damping ratio (ρ), and summed elasticities for survival (stasis), growth, fertility (reproduction), and evenness of elasticity (EE). We compared these across species varying in conservation status and population trend. Phylogenetic generalized least squares (PGLS) models were used to evaluate differences between listed and nonlisted plants. Overall, demographic traits were largely overlapping for listed and nonlisted species. Population trends had a significant impact on most demographic traits and elasticity patterns. The influence of T_g on elasticity metrics was consistent across all data groupings. In contrast, the influence of λ on elasticity metrics was highly variable, and correlated in opposite directions in growing and declining populations. Our results suggested that population models developed for nonlisted plant species may be useful for assessing the risks of pesticides to listed species. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:2043-2052. © 2019 SETAC.

Independent Scientific Review under the Endangered Species Act

The directive from Congress in the Endangered Species Act obliging the US Fish and Wildlife Service and National Marine Fisheries Service along with other federal agencies to use the best available scientific information in their determinations—and calls from stakeholder communities to show that they have done so—have led the federal wildlife agencies to seek external, expert review of their determinations with increasing frequency over time. In the present article, we survey the agency determinations that may be subject to independent science review and the technical tasks embedded in those determinations that can benefit from such review. We go on to identify common failures in scientific review that compromise the quality and reliability of agency determinations and then describe the attributes of independent scientific reviews that enable the agencies to discharge their statutory duties while seeking to conserve threatened and endangered species and the ecosystems on which they depend.

Implicit decision framing as an unrecognized source of confusion in endangered species classification

Legal classification of species requires scientific and values-based components, and how those components interact depends on how people frame the decision. Is classification a negotiation of trade-offs, a decision on how to allocate conservation efforts, or simply a comparison of the biological status of a species to a legal standard? The answers to problem-framing questions such as these influence decision making in species classifications. In our experience, however, decision makers, staff biologists, and stakeholders often have differing perspectives of the decision problem and assume different framings. In addition to differences between individuals, in some cases it appears individuals themselves are unclear about the decision process, which contributes to regulatory paralysis, litigation, and a loss of trust by agency staff and the public. We present 5 framings: putting species in the right bin, doing right by the species over time, saving the most species on a limited budget, weighing extinction risk against other objectives, and strategic classification to advance conservation. These framings are inspired by elements observed in current classification practices. Putting species in the right bin entails comparing a scientific status assessment with policy thresholds and accounting for potential misclassification costs. Doing right by the species adds a time dimension to the classification decision, and saving the most species on a limited budget classifies a suite of species simultaneously. Weighing extinction risk against other objectives would weigh ecological or socioeconomic concerns in classification decisions, and strategic classification to advance conservation would make negotiation a component of classification. We view these framings as a means to generate thought, discussion, and movement toward selection and application of explicit classification framings. Being explicit about the decision framing could lead decision makers toward more efficient and defensible decisions, reduce internal confusion and external conflict, and support better collaboration between scientists and policy makers.

Adapting population models for application in pesticide risk assessment: A case study with Mead's milkweed

Population models can facilitate assessment of potential impacts of pesticides on populations or species rather than individuals and have been identified as important tools for pesticide risk assessment of nontarget species including those listed under the Endangered Species Act. Few examples of population models developed for this specific purpose are available; however, population models are commonly used in conservation science as a tool to project the viability of populations and the long-term outcomes of management actions. We present a population model for Mead's milkweed (Asclepias meadii), a species listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act throughout its range across the Midwestern United States. We adapted a published population model based on demographic field data for application in pesticide risk assessment. Exposure and effects were modeled as reductions of sets of vital rates in the transition matrices, simulating both lethal and sublethal effects of herbicides. Two herbicides, atrazine and mesotrione, were used as case study examples to evaluate a range of assumptions about potential exposure-effects relationships. In addition, we assessed buffers (i.e., setback distances of herbicide spray applications from the simulated habitat) as hypothetical mitigation scenarios and evaluated their influence on population-level effects in the model. The model results suggest that buffers can be effective at reducing risk from herbicide drift to plant populations. These case studies demonstrate that existing population models can be adopted and integrated with exposure and effects information for use in pesticide risk assessment. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:2235-2245. © 2018 SETAC.

Assessing and mitigating simulated population-level effects of 3 herbicides to a threatened plant: Application of a species-specific population model of Boltonia decurrens

Extrapolating from organism-level endpoints, as generated from standard pesticide toxicity tests, to populations is an important step in threatened and endangered species risk assessments. We apply a population model for a threatened herbaceous plant species, Boltonia decurrens, to estimate the potential population-level impacts of 3 herbicides. We combine conservative exposure scenarios with dose-response relationships for growth and survival of standard test species and apply those in the species-specific model. Exposure profiles applied in the B. decurrens model were estimated using exposure modeling approaches. Spray buffer zones were simulated by using corresponding exposure profiles, and their effectiveness at mitigating simulated effects on the plant populations was assessed with the model. From simulated exposure effects scenarios that affect plant populations, the present results suggest that B. decurrens populations may be more sensitive to exposures from herbicide spray drift affecting vegetative stages than from runoff affecting early seedling survival and growth. Spray application buffer zones were shown to be effective at reducing effects on simulated populations. Our case study demonstrates how species-specific population models can be applied in pesticide risk assessment to bring organism-level endpoints, exposure assumptions, and species characteristics together in an ecologically relevant context. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:1545-1555. © 2018 SETAC.

Endangered Species Act

The predominant definition of extinction risk in conservation biology involves evaluating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of extinction time at a particular point (the "time horizon"). Using the principles of decision theory, this article develops an alternative definition of extinction risk as the expected loss (EL) to society resulting from eventual extinction of a species. Distinct roles are identified for time preference and risk aversion. Ranges of tentative values for the parameters of the two approaches are proposed, and the performances of the two approaches are compared and contrasted for a small set of real-world species with published extinction time distributions and a large set of hypothetical extinction time distributions. Potential issues with each approach are evaluated, and the EL approach is recommended as the better of the two. The CDF approach suffers from the fact that extinctions that occur at any time before the specified time horizon are weighted equally, while extinctions that occur beyond the specified time horizon receive no weight at all. It also suffers from the fact that the time horizon does not correspond to any natural phenomenon, and so is impossible to specify nonarbitrarily; yet the results can depend critically on the specified value. In contrast, the EL approach has the advantage of weighting extinction time continuously, with no artificial time horizon, and the parameters of the approach (the rates of time preference and risk aversion) do correspond to natural phenomena, and so can be specified nonarbitrarily.

An assessment of the US endangered species act recovery plans: using physiology to support conservation

Applying physiology to help solve conservation problems has become increasingly prominent. It is unclear, however, if the increased integration into the scientific community has translated into the application of physiological tools in conservation planning. We completed a review of the use of animal physiology in the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Endangered Species Act (ESA) recovery plans released between 2005 and 2016. Over those 11 years, 135 of the 146 recovery plans mentioned physiology, with 56% including it as background information on the natural history of the species and not as part of the recovery process. Fish and bird species had the lowest proportion of recovery plans to include physiology beyond the description of the natural history. When considering multiple sub-disciplines of physiology, immunology and epidemiology were incorporated as part of the recovery process most often. Our review suggests a disconnect between available physiological tools and the potential role of physiology in developing conservation plans. We provide three suggestions to further guide conservation scientists, managers and physiologists to work synergistically to solve conservation problems: (1) the breadth of knowledge within a recovery plan writing team should be increased, for example, through increased training of federal scientists in new physiology methodologies and tools or the inclusion of authors in academia that have a background in physiology; (2) physiologists should make their research more available to conservation scientists and federal agencies by clearly linking their research to conservation and (3) communication should be enhanced between government conservation scientists and physiologists.

Developing population models: A systematic approach for pesticide risk assessment using herbaceous plants as an example

Population models are used as tools in species management and conservation and are increasingly recognized as important tools in pesticide risk assessments. A wide variety of population model applications and resources on modeling techniques, evaluation and documentation can be found in the literature. In this paper, we add to these resources by introducing a systematic, transparent approach to developing population models. The decision guide that we propose is intended to help model developers systematically address data availability for their purpose and the steps that need to be taken in any model development. The resulting conceptual model includes the necessary complexity to address the model purpose on the basis of current understanding and available data. We provide specific guidance for the development of population models for herbaceous plant species in pesticide risk assessment and demonstrate the approach with an example of a conceptual model developed following the decision guide for herbicide risk assessment of Mead's milkweed (Asclepias meadii), a species listed as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. The decision guide specific to herbaceous plants demonstrates the details, but the general approach can be adapted for other species groups and management objectives. Population models provide a tool to link population-level dynamics, species and habitat characteristics as well as information about stressors in a single approach. Developing such models in a systematic, transparent way will increase their applicability and credibility, reduce development efforts, and result in models that are readily available for use in species management and risk assessments.

Climate-induced glacier and snow loss imperils alpine stream insects

Climate warming is causing rapid loss of glaciers and snowpack in mountainous regions worldwide. These changes are predicted to negatively impact the habitats of many range-restricted species, particularly endemic, mountaintop species dependent on the unique thermal and hydrologic conditions found only in glacier-fed and snow melt-driven alpine streams. Although progress has been made, existing understanding of the status, distribution, and ecology of alpine aquatic species, particularly in North America, is lacking, thereby hindering conservation and management programs. Two aquatic insects - the meltwater stonefly (Lednia tumana) and the glacier stonefly (Zapada glacier) - were recently proposed for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced habitat loss. Using a large dataset (272 streams, 482 total sites) with high-resolution climate and habitat information, we describe the distribution, status, and key environmental features that limit L. tumana and Z. glacier across the northern Rocky Mountains. Lednia tumana was detected in 113 streams (175 sites) within Glacier National Park (GNP) and surrounding areas. The probability of L. tumana occurrence increased with cold stream temperatures and close proximity to glaciers and permanent snowfields. Similarly, densities of L. tumana declined with increasing distance from stream source. Zapada glacier was only detected in 10 streams (24 sites), six in GNP and four in mountain ranges up to ~600 km southwest. Our results show that both L. tumana and Z. glacier inhabit an extremely narrow distribution, restricted to short sections of cold, alpine streams often below glaciers predicted to disappear over the next two decades. Climate warming-induced glacier and snow loss clearly imperils the persistence of L. tumana and Z. glacier throughout their ranges, highlighting the role of mountaintop aquatic invertebrates as sentinels of climate change in mid-latitude regions.

The effect of listing the lesser prairie chicken as a threatened species on rural property values

This paper estimates the effect of Endangered Species Act protections for the lesser prairie chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) on rural property values in Oklahoma. The political and legal controversy surrounding the listing of imperiled species raises questions about the development restrictions and opportunity costs the Endangered Species Act imposes on private landowners. Examining parcel-level sales data before and after the listing of the endemic lesser prairie chicken, we employ difference-in-differences (DD) regression to measure the welfare costs of these restrictions. While our basic DD regression provides evidence the listing was associated with a drop in property values, this finding does not hold up in models that control for latent county and year effects. The lack of a significant price effect is confirmed by several robustness checks. Thus, the local economic costs of listing the lesser prairie chicken under the Endangered Species Act appear to have been small.

Population assessment using multivariate time-series analysis: A case study of rockfishes in Puget Sound

Estimating a population's growth rate and year-to-year variance is a key component of population viability analysis (PVA). However, standard PVA methods require time series of counts obtained using consistent survey methods over many years. In addition, it can be difficult to separate observation and process variance, which is critical for PVA. Time-series analysis performed with multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models is a flexible statistical framework that allows one to address many of these limitations. MARSS models allow one to combine surveys with different gears and across different sites for estimation of PVA parameters, and to implement replication, which reduces the variance-separation problem and maximizes informational input for mean trend estimation. Even data that are fragmented with unknown error levels can be accommodated. We present a practical case study that illustrates MARSS analysis steps: data choice, model set-up, model selection, and parameter estimation. Our case study is an analysis of the long-term trends of rockfish in Puget Sound, Washington, based on citizen science scuba surveys, a fishery-independent trawl survey, and recreational fishery surveys affected by bag-limit reductions. The best-supported models indicated that the recreational and trawl surveys tracked different, temporally independent assemblages that declined at similar rates (an average of -3.8% to -3.9% per year). The scuba survey tracked a separate increasing and temporally independent assemblage (an average of 4.1% per year). Three rockfishes (bocaccio, canary, and yelloweye) are listed in Puget Sound under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). These species are associated with deep water, which the recreational and trawl surveys sample better than the scuba survey. All three ESA-listed rockfishes declined as a proportion of recreational catch between the 1970s and 2010s, suggesting that they experienced similar or more severe reductions in abundance than the 3.8-3.9% per year declines that were estimated for rockfish populations sampled by the recreational and trawl surveys.

The role of scientists in statutory interpretation of the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Like many federal statutes, the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) contains vague or ambiguous language. The meaning imparted to the ESA's unclear language can profoundly impact the fates of endangered and threatened species. Hence, conservation scientists should contribute to the interpretation of the ESA when vague or ambiguous language contains scientific words or refers to scientific concepts. Scientists need to know at least these 2 facts about statutory interpretation: statutory interpretation is subjective and the potential influence of normative values results in different expectations for the parties involved. With the possible exception of judges, all conventional participants in statutory interpretation are serving their own interests, advocating for their preferred policies, or biased. Hence, scientists can play a unique role by informing the interpretative process with objective, policy-neutral information. Conversely, scientists may act as advocates for their preferred interpretation of unclear statutory language. The different roles scientists might play in statutory interpretation raise the issues of advocacy and competency. Advocating for a preferred statutory interpretation is legitimate political behavior by scientists, but statutory interpretation can be strongly influenced by normative values. Therefore, scientists must be careful not to commit stealth policy advocacy. Most conservation scientists lack demonstrable competence in statutory interpretation and therefore should consult or collaborate with lawyers when interpreting statutes. Professional scientific societies are widely perceived by the public as unbiased sources of objective information. Therefore, professional scientific societies should remain policy neutral and present all interpretations of unclear statutory language; explain the semantics and science both supporting and contradicting each interpretation; and describe the potential consequences of implementing each interpretation. A review of scientists' interpretations of the phrase "significant portion of its range" in the ESA is used to critique the role of scientists and professional societies in statutory interpretation.

Population modeling for pesticide risk assessment of threatened species-A case study of a terrestrial plant, Boltonia decurrens

Although population models are recognized as necessary tools in the ecological risk assessment of pesticides, particularly for species listed under the Endangered Species Act, their application in this context is currently limited to very few cases. The authors developed a detailed, individual-based population model for a threatened plant species, the decurrent false aster (Boltonia decurrens), for application in pesticide risk assessment. Floods and competition with other plant species are known factors that drive the species' population dynamics and were included in the model approach. The authors use the model to compare the population-level effects of 5 toxicity surrogates applied to B. decurrens under varying environmental conditions. The model results suggest that the environmental conditions under which herbicide applications occur may have a higher impact on populations than organism-level sensitivities to an herbicide within a realistic range. Indirect effects may be as important as the direct effects of herbicide applications by shifting competition strength if competing species have different sensitivities to the herbicide. The model approach provides a case study for population-level risk assessments of listed species. Population-level effects of herbicides can be assessed in a realistic and species-specific context, and uncertainties can be addressed explicitly. The authors discuss how their approach can inform the future development and application of modeling for population-level risk assessments of listed species, and ecological risk assessment in general. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:480-491. © 2016 SETAC.

Species-level persistence probabilities for recovery and conservation status assessment

Recovery planning for species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act has been hampered by a lack of consistency and transparency, which can be improved by implementing a standardized approach for evaluating species status and developing measurable recovery criteria. However, managers lack an assessment method that integrates threat abatement and can be used when demographic data are limited. To help meet these needs, we demonstrated an approach for evaluating species status based on habitat configuration data. We applied 3 established persistence measures (patch occupancy, metapopulation capacity, and proportion of population lost) to compare 2 conservation strategies (critical habitat designated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Forest Service's Carbonate Habitat Management Strategy) and 2 threat scenarios (maximum limestone mining, removal of all habitat in areas with mining claims; minimum mining, removal of habitat only in areas with existing operations and high-quality ore) against a baseline of existing habitat for 3 federally listed plant species. Protecting all area within the designated critical habitat maintained a similar level (83.9-99.9%) of species persistence as the baseline, whereas maximum mining greatly reduced persistence (0.51-38.4% maintained). The 3 persistence measures provided complementary insights reflecting different aspects of habitat availability (total area, number of patches, patch size, and connectivity). These measures can be used to link recovery criteria developed following the 3 R principles (representation, redundancy, and resilience) to the resulting improvements in species viability. By focusing on amount and distribution of habitat, our method provides a means of assessing the status of data-poor species to inform decision making under the Endangered Species Act.

Assessing the risks of pesticides to threatened and endangered species using population modeling: A critical review and recommendations for future work

United States legislation requires the US Environmental Protection Agency to ensure that pesticide use does not cause unreasonable adverse effects on the environment, including species listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA; hereafter referred to as listed species). Despite a long history of population models used in conservation biology and resource management and a 2013 report from the US National Research Council recommending their use, application of population models for pesticide risk assessments under the ESA has been minimal. The pertinent literature published from 2004 to 2014 was reviewed to explore the availability of population models and their frequency of use in listed species risk assessments. The models were categorized in terms of structure, taxonomic coverage, purpose, inputs and outputs, and whether the models included density dependence, stochasticity, or risk estimates, or were spatially explicit. Despite the widespread availability of models and an extensive literature documenting their use in other management contexts, only 2 of the approximately 400 studies reviewed used population models to assess the risks of pesticides to listed species. This result suggests that there is an untapped potential to adapt existing models for pesticide risk assessments under the ESA, but also that there are some challenges to do so for listed species. Key conclusions from the analysis are summarized, and priorities are recommended for future work to increase the usefulness of population models as tools for pesticide risk assessments. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:1904-1913. © 2016 SETAC.

A simple, sufficient, and consistent method to score the status of threats and demography of imperiled species

Managers of large, complex wildlife conservation programs need information on the conservation status of each of many species to help strategically allocate limited resources. Oversimplifying status data, however, runs the risk of missing information essential to strategic allocation. Conservation status consists of two components, the status of threats a species faces and the species' demographic status. Neither component alone is sufficient to characterize conservation status. Here we present a simple key for scoring threat and demographic changes for species using detailed information provided in free-form textual descriptions of conservation status. This key is easy to use (simple), captures the two components of conservation status without the cost of more detailed measures (sufficient), and can be applied by different personnel to any taxon (consistent). To evaluate the key's utility, we performed two analyses. First, we scored the threat and demographic status of 37 species recently recommended for reclassification under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and 15 control species, then compared our scores to two metrics used for decision-making and reports to Congress. Second, we scored the threat and demographic status of all non-plant ESA-listed species from Florida (54 spp.), and evaluated scoring repeatability for a subset of those. While the metrics reported by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) are often consistent with our scores in the first analysis, the results highlight two problems with the oversimplified metrics. First, we show that both metrics can mask underlying demographic declines or threat increases; for example, ∼40% of species not recommended for reclassification had changes in threats or demography. Second, we show that neither metric is consistent with either threats or demography alone, but conflates the two. The second analysis illustrates how the scoring key can be applied to a substantial set of species to understand overall patterns of ESA implementation. The scoring repeatability analysis shows promise, but indicates thorough training will be needed to ensure consistency. We propose that large conservation programs adopt our simple scoring system for threats and demography. By doing so, program administrators will have better information to monitor program effectiveness and guide their decisions.

Data contradict common perceptions about a controversial provision of the US Endangered Species Act

Separating myth and reality is essential for evaluating the effectiveness of laws. Section 7 of the US Endangered Species Act (Act) directs federal agencies to help conserve threatened and endangered species, including by consulting with the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) or National Marine Fisheries Service on actions the agencies authorize, fund, or carry out. Consultations ensure that actions do not violate the Act's prohibitions on "jeopardizing" listed species or "destroying or adversely modifying" these species' critical habitat. Because these prohibitions are broad, many people consider section 7 the primary tool for protecting species under the Act, whereas others believe section 7 severely impedes economic development. This decades-old controversy is driven primarily by the lack of data on implementation: past analyses are either over 25 y old or taxonomically restricted. We analyze data on all 88,290 consultations recorded by FWS from January 2008 through April 2015. In contrast to conventional wisdom about section 7 implementation, no project was stopped or extensively altered as a result of FWS finding jeopardy or adverse modification during this period. We also show that median consultation duration is far lower than the maximum allowed by the Act, and several factors drive variation in consultation duration. The results discredit many of the claims about the onerous nature of section 7 but also raise questions as to how federal agencies could apply this tool more effectively to conserve species. We build on the results to identify ways to improve the effectiveness of consultations for imperiled species conservation and increase the efficiency of consultations.

Assessing pesticide risks to threatened and endangered species using population models: Findings and recommendations from a CropLife America Science Forum

This brief communication reports on the main findings and recommendations from the 2014 Science Forum organized by CropLife America. The aim of the Forum was to gain a better understanding of the current status of population models and how they could be used in ecological risk assessments for threatened and endangered species potentially exposed to pesticides in the United States. The Forum panelists' recommendations are intended to assist the relevant government agencies with implementation of population modeling in future endangered species risk assessments for pesticides. The Forum included keynote presentations that provided an overview of current practices, highlighted the findings of a recent National Academy of Sciences report and its implications, reviewed the main categories of existing population models and the types of risk expressions that can be produced as model outputs, and provided examples of how population models are currently being used in different legislative contexts. The panel concluded that models developed for listed species assessments should provide quantitative risk estimates, incorporate realistic variability in environmental and demographic factors, integrate complex patterns of exposure and effects, and use baseline conditions that include present factors that have caused the species to be listed (e.g., habitat loss, invasive species) or have resulted in positive management action. Furthermore, the panel advocates for the formation of a multipartite advisory committee to provide best available knowledge and guidance related to model implementation and use, to address such needs as more systematic collection, digitization, and dissemination of data for listed species; consideration of the newest developments in good modeling practice; comprehensive review of existing population models and their applicability for listed species assessments; and development of case studies using a few well-tested models for particular species to demonstrate proof of concept. To advance our common goals, the panel recommends the following as important areas for further research and development: quantitative analysis of the causes of species listings to guide model development; systematic assessment of the relative role of toxicity versus other factors in driving pesticide risk; additional study of how interactions between density dependence and pesticides influence risk; and development of pragmatic approaches to assessing indirect effects of pesticides on listed species.

Current practices in the identification of critical habitat for threatened species

The term critical habitat is used to describe the subset of habitat that is essential to the survival and recovery of species. Some countries legally require that critical habitat of listed threatened and endangered species be identified and protected. However, there is little evidence to suggest that the identification of critical habitat has had much impact on species recovery. We hypothesized that this may be due at least partly to a mismatch between the intent of critical habitat identification, which is to protect sufficient habitat for species persistence and recovery, and its practice. We used content analysis to systematically review critical habitat documents from the United States, Canada, and Australia. In particular, we identified the major trends in type of information used to identify critical habitat and in occupancy of habitat identified as critical. Information about population viability was used to identify critical habitat for only 1% of the species reviewed, and for most species, designated critical habitat did not include unoccupied habitat. Without reference to population viability, it is difficult to determine how much of a species' occupied and unoccupied habitat will be required for persistence. We therefore conclude that the identification of critical habitat remains inconsistent with the goal of protecting sufficient habitat to support persistence and recovery of the species. Ensuring that critical habitat identification aligns more closely with its intent will improve the accuracy of the designations and may therefore help improve the benefits to species recovery when combined with adequate implementation and enforcement of legal protections.

Developing metapopulation connectivity criteria from genetic and habitat data to recover the endangered Mexican wolf

Restoring connectivity between fragmented populations is an important tool for alleviating genetic threats to endangered species. Yet recovery plans typically lack quantitative criteria for ensuring such population connectivity. We demonstrate how models that integrate habitat, genetic, and demographic data can be used to develop connectivity criteria for the endangered Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi), which is currently being restored to the wild from a captive population descended from 7 founders. We used population viability analysis that incorporated pedigree data to evaluate the relation between connectivity and persistence for a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation of 3 populations of equal size. Decreasing dispersal rates greatly increased extinction risk for small populations (<150-200), especially as dispersal rates dropped below 0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation. We compared observed migration rates in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) wolf metapopulation to 2 habitat-based effective distance metrics, least-cost and resistance distance. We then used effective distance between potential primary core populations in a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation to evaluate potential dispersal rates. Although potential connectivity was lower in the Mexican wolf versus the NRM wolf metapopulation, a connectivity rate of >0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation may be achievable via natural dispersal under current landscape conditions. When sufficient data are available, these methods allow planners to move beyond general aspirational connectivity goals or rules of thumb to develop objective and measurable connectivity criteria that more effectively support species recovery. The shift from simple connectivity rules of thumb to species-specific analyses parallels the previous shift from general minimum-viable-population thresholds to detailed viability modeling in endangered species recovery planning.

A framework for developing objective and measurable recovery criteria for threatened and endangered species

For species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Marine Fisheries Service are tasked with writing recovery plans that include "objective, measurable criteria" that define when a species is no longer at risk of extinction, but neither the act itself nor agency guidelines provide an explicit definition of objective, measurable criteria. Past reviews of recovery plans, including one published in 2012, show that many criteria lack quantitative metrics with clear biological rationale and are not meeting the measureable and objective mandate. I reviewed how objective, measureable criteria have been defined implicitly and explicitly in peer-reviewed literature, the ESA, other U.S. statutes, and legal decisions. Based on a synthesis of these sources, I propose the following 6 standards be used as minimum requirements for objective, measurable criteria: contain a quantitative threshold with calculable units, stipulate a timeframe over which they must be met, explicitly define the spatial extent or population to which they apply, specify a sampling procedure that includes sample size, specify a statistical significance level, and include justification by providing scientific evidence that the criteria define a species whose extinction risk has been reduced to the desired level. To meet these 6 standards, I suggest that recovery plans be explicitly guided by and organized around a population viability modeling framework even if data or agency resources are too limited to complete a viability model. When data and resources are available, recovery criteria can be developed from the population viability model results, but when data and resources are insufficient for model implementation, extinction risk thresholds can be used as criteria. A recovery-planning approach centered on viability modeling will also yield appropriately focused data-acquisition and monitoring plans and will facilitate a seamless transition from recovery planning to delisting.

Floodplain rehabilitation as a hedge against hydroclimatic uncertainty in a migration corridor of threatened steelhead

A strategy for recovering endangered species during climate change is to restore ecosystem processes that moderate effects of climate shifts. In mid-latitudes, storm patterns may shift their intensity, duration, and frequency. These shifts threaten flooding in human communities and reduce migration windows (conditions suitable for migration after a storm) for fish. Rehabilitation of historic floodplains can in principle reduce these threats via transient storage of storm water, but no one has quantified the benefit of floodplain rehabilitation for migrating fish, a widespread biota with conservation and economic value. We used simple models to quantify migration opportunity for a threatened migratory fish, steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), in an episodic rain-fed river system, the Pajaro River in central California. We combined flow models, bioenergetic models, and existing climate projections to estimate the sensitivity of migration windows to altered storm patterns under alternate scenarios of floodplain rehabilitation. Generally, migration opportunities were insensitive to warming, weakly sensitive to duration or intensity of storms, and proportionately sensitive to frequency of storms. The rehabilitation strategy expanded migration windows by 16-28% regardless of climate outcomes. Warmer conditions raised the energy cost of migrating, but not enough to matter biologically. Novel findings were that fewer storms appeared to pose a bigger threat to migrating steelhead than warmer or smaller storms and that floodplain rehabilitation lessened the risk from fewer or smaller storms across all plausible hydroclimatic outcomes. It follows that statistical downscaling methods may mischaracterize risk, depending on how they resolve overall precipitation shifts into changes of storm frequency as opposed to storm size. Moreover, anticipating effects of climate shifts that are irreducibly uncertain (here, rainfall) may be more important than anticipating effects of relatively predictable changes such as warming. This highlights a need to credibly identify strategies of ecosystem rehabilitation that are robust to uncertainty. Rehabilitación de Planicies Inundables como Cerco contra la Incertidumbre Hidroclimática en un Corredor Migratorio de Oncorhynchus mykiss, Especie Amenazada.

Strategic planning for instream flow restoration: a case study of potential climate change impacts in the central Columbia River basin

We provide a case study prioritizing instream flow restoration activities by sub-basin according to the habitat needs of Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed salmonids relative to climate change in the central Columbia River basin in Washington State (USA). The objective is to employ scenario analysis to inform and improve existing instream flow restoration projects. We assess the sensitivity of late summer (July, August, and September) flows to the following scenario simulations - singly or in combination: climate change, changes in the quantity of water used for irrigation and possible changes to existing water resource policy. Flows for four sub-basins were modeled using the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) under historical and projected conditions of 2020 and 2040 for each scenario. Results indicate that Yakima will be the most flow-limited sub-basin with average reductions in streamflow of 41% under climate conditions of 2020 and 56% under 2040 conditions; 1.3-2.5 times greater than those of other sub-basins. In addition, irrigation plays a key role in the hydrology of the Yakima sub-basin - with flow reductions ranging from 78% to 90% under severe to extreme (i.e., 20-40%) increases in agricultural water use (2.0-4.4 times the reductions in the other sub-basins). The Yakima and Okanogan sub-basins are the most responsive to simulations of flow-bolstering policy change (providing salmon with first priority water allocation and at biologically relevant flows), as demonstrated by 91-100% target flows attained. The Wenatchee and Methow sub-basins do not exhibit similar responsiveness to simulated policy changes. Considering climate change only, we conclude that flow restoration should be prioritized first in the Yakima and Wenatchee sub-basins, and second in the Okanogan and Methow. Considering both climate change and possible policy changes, we recommend that the Yakima sub-basin receive the highest priority for flow restoration activities to sustain critical instream habitat for ESA-listed salmonids.