Health and economic outcomes of HPV 16,18 vaccination in 72 GAVI-eligible countries

Cost-Effectiveness of Antivenoms for Snakebite Envenoming in 16 Countries in West Africa

Background

Snakebite poisoning is a significant medical problem in agricultural societies in Sub Saharan Africa. Antivenom (AV) is the standard treatment, and we assessed the cost-effectiveness of making it available in 16 countries in West Africa.

Methods

We determined the cost-effectiveness of AV based on a decision-tree model from a public payer perspective. Specific AVs included in the model were Antivipmyn, FAV Afrique, EchiTab-G and EchiTab-Plus. We derived inputs from the literature which included: type of snakes causing bites (carpet viper (Echis species)/non-carpet viper), AV effectiveness against death, mortality without AV, probability of Early Adverse Reactions (EAR), likelihood of death from EAR, average age at envenomation in years, anticipated remaining life span and likelihood of amputation. Costs incurred by the victims include: costs of confirming and evaluating envenomation, AV acquisition, routine care, AV transportation logistics, hospital admission and related transportation costs, management of AV EAR compared to the alternative of free snakebite care with ineffective or no AV. Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) were assessed as the cost per death averted and the cost per Disability-Adjusted-Life-Years (DALY) averted. Probabilistic Sensitivity Analyses (PSA) using Monte Carlo simulations were used to obtain 95% Confidence Intervals of ICERs.

Results

The cost/death averted for the 16 countries of interest ranged from $1,997 in Guinea Bissau to $6,205 for Liberia and Sierra Leone. The cost/DALY averted ranged from $83 (95% Confidence Interval: $36-$240) for Benin Republic to $281 ($159–457) for Sierra-Leone. In all cases, the base-case cost/DALY averted estimate fell below the commonly accepted threshold of one time per capita GDP, suggesting that AV is highly cost-effective for the treatment of snakebite in all 16 WA countries. The findings were consistent even with variations of inputs in 1—way sensitivity analyses. In addition, the PSA showed that in the majority of iterations ranging from 97.3% in Liberia to 100% in Cameroun, Guinea Bissau, Mali, Nigeria and Senegal, our model results yielded an ICER that fell below the threshold of one time per capita GDP, thus, indicating a high degree of confidence in our results.

Conclusions

Therapy for SBE with AV in countries of WA is highly cost-effective at commonly accepted thresholds. Broadening access to effective AVs in rural communities in West Africa is a priority.

Antivenom is the main intervention against snakebite poisoning but is relatively scarce, unaffordable and the situation has been compounded further by the recent cessation of production of effective antivenoms and marketing of inappropriate products. Given this crisis, we assessed the cost effectiveness of providing antivenoms in West Africa by comparing costs associated with antivenom treatment against their health benefits in decreasing mortality. In the most comprehensive analyses ever conducted, it was observed the incremental cost effectiveness ratio of providing antivenom ranged from $1,997 in Guinea Bissau to $6,205 for Liberia and Sierra-Leone per death averted while cost per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted ranged from $83 for Benin Republic to $281 for Sierra-Leone. There is probability of 97.3–100% that antivenoms are very cost-effective in the analyses. These demonstrate antivenom is highly cost-effective and compares favorably to other commonly funded healthcare interventions. Providing and broadening antivenom access throughout areas at risk in rural West Africa should be prioritized given the considerable reduction in deaths and DALYs that could be derived at a relatively small cost.

Effect of vaccination age on cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination against cervical cancer in China

Background

The cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in women pre-sexual debut has been demonstrated in many countries. This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a 3-dose bivalent HPV vaccination at ages 12 to 55 year in both rural and urban settings in China.

Methods

The Markov cohort model simulated the natural history of HPV infection and included the effect of screening and HPV vaccination over the lifetime of a 100,000 female cohort. Transition probabilities and utilities were obtained from published literature. Cost data were estimated by Delphi panel using healthcare payers’ perspective. Vaccine cost was assumed Hong Kong listed price. Vaccine efficacy (VE) was based on the PATRICIA trial data assuming VE irrespective of HPV type at all ages on incident HPV. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3 %. Cervical cancer cases and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for vaccination and screening compared with screening alone were estimated for each vaccination age. Reduced VE in women post-sexual debut were investigated in scenario analyses.

Results

With 70 % vaccination coverage, a reduction of cancer cases varying from 585 to 33 in rural and 691 to 32 in urban were estimated at ages 12 to 55, respectively. The discounted ICERs of vaccination at any age under 23 years in rural and any age under 25 years in urban were lower than the current threshold. Scenario analyses with lower VE post-sexual debut confirmed the results with age 20 in rural and 21 in urban had consistent lower ICERs. The more ‘catch-up’ cohorts vaccinated at the start of a program, the more cancer lesions are avoided in the long-term.

Conclusions

Vaccination at any age under 23 years old in rural and any age under 25 years old in urban were cost-effective. Catch-up to the age of 25 years in rural and urban could still be cost-effective.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12885-016-2207-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A Systematic Review of the State of Economic Evaluation for Health Care in India

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Economic evaluations are one of the important tools in policy making for rational allocation of resources. Given the very low public investment in the health sector in India, it is critical that resources are used wisely on interventions proven to yield best results. Hence, we undertook this study to assess the extent and quality of evidence for economic evaluation of health-care interventions and programmes in India.

METHODS

A comprehensive search was conducted to search for published full economic evaluations pertaining to India and addressing a health-related intervention or programme. PubMed, Scopus, Embase, ScienceDirect, and York CRD database and websites of important research agencies were identified to search for economic evaluations published from January 1980 to the middle of November 2014. Two researchers independently assessed the quality of the studies based on Drummond and modelling checklist.

RESULTS

Out of a total of 5013 articles enlisted after literature search, a total of 104 met the inclusion criteria for this systematic review. The majority of these papers were cost-effectiveness studies (64%), led by a clinician or public-health professional (77%), using decision analysis-based methods (59%), published in an international journal (80%) and addressing communicable diseases (58%). In addition, 42% were funded by an international funding agency or UN/bilateral aid agency, and 30% focussed on pharmaceuticals. The average quality score of these full economic evaluations was 65.1%. The major limitation was the inability to address uncertainties involved in modelling as only about one-third of the studies assessed modelling structural uncertainties (33%), or ran sub-group analyses to account for heterogeneity (36.5%) or analysed methodological uncertainty (32%).

CONCLUSION

The existing literature on economic evaluations in India is inadequate to feed into sound policy making. There is an urgent need to generate awareness within the government of how economic evaluation can inform and benefit policy making, and at the same time build capacity of health-care professionals in understanding the economic principles of health-care delivery system.

The time has come to make cervical cancer prevention an essential part of comprehensive sexual and reproductive health services for HIV-positive women in low-income countries

INTRODUCTION

HIV and cervical cancer are intersecting epidemics that disproportionately affect one of the most vulnerable populations in the world: women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Historically, the disparity in cervical cancer risk for women in LMICs has been due to the lack of organized screening and prevention programmes. In recent years, this risk has been augmented by the severity of the HIV epidemic in LMICs. HIV-positive women are at increased risk for developing cervical precancer and cancer, and while the introduction of antiretroviral therapy has dramatically improved life expectancies among HIV-positive women it has not been shown to improve cancer-related outcomes. Therefore, an increasing number of HIV-positive women are living in LMICs with limited or no access to cervical cancer screening programmes. In this commentary, we describe the gaps in cervical cancer prevention, the state of evidence for integrating cervical cancer prevention into HIV programmes and future directions for programme implementation and research.

DISCUSSION

Despite the biologic, behavioural and demographic overlap between HIV and cervical cancer, cervical cancer prevention has for the most part been left out of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services for HIV-positive women. Lower cost primary and secondary prevention strategies for cervical cancer are becoming more widely available in LMICs, with increasing evidence for their efficacy and cost-effectiveness. Going forward, cervical cancer prevention must be considered a part of the essential package of SRH services for HIV-positive women. Effective cervical cancer prevention programmes will require a coordinated response from international policymakers and funders, national governments and community leaders. Leveraging the improvements in healthcare infrastructure created by the response to the global HIV epidemic through integration of services may be an effective way to make an impact to prevent cervical cancer among HIV-positive women, but more work remains to determine optimal approaches.

CONCLUSIONS

Cervical cancer prevention is an essential part of comprehensive HIV care. In order to ensure maximal impact and cost-effectiveness, implementation strategies for screening programmes must be adapted and rigorously evaluated through a framework that includes equal participation with policymakers, programme planners and key stakeholders in the target communities.

Long-term Realism and Cost-effectiveness: Primary Prevention in Combatting Cancer and Associated Inequalities Worldwide

The global figure of 14 million new cancer cases in 2012 is projected to rise to almost 22 million by 2030, with the burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) shifting from 59% to 65% of all cancer cases worldwide over this time. While the overheads of cancer care are set to rapidly increase in all countries worldwide irrespective of income, the limited resources to treat and manage the growing number of cancer patients in LMICs threaten national economic development. Current data collated in the recent second edition of The Cancer Atlas by the American Cancer Society and International Agency for Research on Cancer show that a substantial proportion of cancers are preventable and that prevention is cost-effective. Therefore, cancer control strategies within countries must prioritize primary and secondary prevention, alongside cancer management and palliative care and integrate these measures into existing health care plans. There are many examples of the effectiveness of prevention in terms of declining cancer rates and major risk factors, including an 80% decrease in liver cancer incidence rates among children and young adults following universal infant hepatitis B vaccination in Taiwan and a 46% reduction in smoking prevalence in Brazil after the implementation of a more aggressive tobacco control program beginning in 1989. Prevention can bring rich dividends in net savings but actions must be promoted and implemented. The successful approaches to combatting certain infectious diseases provide a model for implementing cancer prevention, particularly in LMICs, via the utilization of existing infrastructures for multiple purposes.

Systematic review of the cost-effectiveness of the vaccination against HPV in Brazil

In Brazil, almost 16,000 new cases of cervical cancer (CC), the type of neoplasia that claims the more lives of young women than any other, are expected in 2014. Although the vaccine against HPV has been developed, the application of this strategies to large populations is costly, and its use in Brazil is limited. Studies of the economic implications of new preventive technologies for CC may support rational and evidence-based decisions in public health. A systematic search of articles published between 2000 and 2014 was conducted using MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Collaboration of Systematic Reviews, and LILACS. The aim of this search was the identification of original articles that evaluated the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against HPV in Brazil. A total of 6 articles are included in this review, evaluating the addition of a vaccine against HPV in comparison to population screening. Although the vaccine against HPV increases the cost of preventing cervical cancer, this new preventive technology presents favorable cost-effectiveness profiles in the case of Brazil. Failure to utilize the newly available preventative technologies against CC can lead to misguided and perverse consequences in a country in which programs based on the Papanicolaou test have been only partially successful.

Methodological variation in economic evaluations conducted in low- and middle-income countries: information for reference case development

Information generated from economic evaluation is increasingly being used to inform health resource allocation decisions globally, including in low- and middle- income countries. However, a crucial consideration for users of the information at a policy level, e.g. funding agencies, is whether the studies are comparable, provide sufficient detail to inform policy decision making, and incorporate inputs from data sources that are reliable and relevant to the context. This review was conducted to inform a methodological standardisation workstream at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) and assesses BMGF-funded cost-per-DALY economic evaluations in four programme areas (malaria, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS and vaccines) in terms of variation in methodology, use of evidence, and quality of reporting. The findings suggest that there is room for improvement in the three areas of assessment, and support the case for the introduction of a standardised methodology or reference case by the BMGF. The findings are also instructive for all institutions that fund economic evaluations in LMICs and who have a desire to improve the ability of economic evaluations to inform resource allocation decisions.

Cost-effectiveness of antivenoms for snakebite envenoming in Nigeria

Background

Snakebite envenoming is a major public health problem throughout the rural tropics. Antivenom is effective in reducing mortality and remains the mainstay of therapy. This study aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of using effective antivenoms for Snakebite envenoming in Nigeria.

Methodology

Economic analysis was conducted from a public healthcare system perspective. Estimates of model inputs were obtained from the literature. Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) were quantified as deaths and Disability-Adjusted-Life-Years (DALY) averted from antivenom therapy. A decision analytic model was developed and analyzed with the following model base-case parameter estimates: type of snakes causing bites, antivenom effectiveness to prevent death, untreated mortality, risk of Early Adverse Reactions (EAR), mortality risk from EAR, mean age at bite and remaining life expectancy, and disability risk (amputation). End-user costs applied included: costs of diagnosing and monitoring envenoming, antivenom drug cost, supportive care, shipping/freezing antivenom, transportation to-and-from hospital and feeding costs while on admission, management of antivenom EAR and free alternative snakebite care for ineffective antivenom.

Principal Findings

We calculated a cost/death averted of ($2330.16) and cost/DALY averted of $99.61 discounted and $56.88 undiscounted. Varying antivenom effectiveness through the 95% confidence interval from 55% to 86% yield a cost/DALY averted of $137.02 to $86.61 respectively. Similarly, varying the prevalence of envenoming caused by carpet viper from 0% to 96% yield a cost/DALY averted of $254.18 to $78.25 respectively. More effective antivenoms and carpet viper envenoming rather than non-carpet viper envenoming were associated with lower cost/DALY averted.

Conclusions/Significance

Treatment of snakebite envenoming in Nigeria is cost-effective with a cost/death averted of $2330.16 and cost/DALY averted of $99.61 discounted, lower than the country's gross domestic product per capita of $1555 (2013). Expanding access to effective antivenoms to larger segments of the Nigerian population should be a considered a priority.

Snake bite is a major public health problem throughout rural communities in West Africa and leads to a significant number of deaths and disabilities per year. Even though effective antivenoms exist against the locally prevalent carpet viper and other poisonous snakes, they are generally not available in community settings, possibly because of their high acquisition cost. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of making antivenom more broadly available in Nigeria by comparing the treatment costs associated with antivenom therapy against their medical benefit in reducing the risk of mortality. We find that the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) associated with making antivenom available in Nigeria was $2,330 per death averted and $100 per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Both of these suggest that snakebite antivenom is highly cost-effective in Nigeria and they also compare very favorably against other commonly funded health interventions for which similar estimates exist. Since a substantial reduction in mortality and DALYs could be achieved at a relatively modest upfront cost, expanding access to antivenom to broader parts of the population should be a priority consideration for future investments in healthcare.

Costs and cost-effectiveness of 9-valent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in two East African countries

BACKGROUND

Current prophylactic vaccines against human papillomavirus (HPV) target two of the most oncogenic types, HPV-16 and -18, which contribute to roughly 70% of cervical cancers worldwide. Second-generation HPV vaccines include a 9-valent vaccine, which targets five additional oncogenic HPV types (i.e., 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58) that contribute to another 15-30% of cervical cancer cases. The objective of this study was to determine a range of vaccine costs for which the 9-valent vaccine would be cost-effective in comparison to the current vaccines in two less developed countries (i.e., Kenya and Uganda).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The analysis was performed using a natural history disease simulation model of HPV and cervical cancer. The mathematical model simulates individual women from an early age and tracks health events and resource use as they transition through clinically-relevant health states over their lifetime. Epidemiological data on HPV prevalence and cancer incidence were used to adapt the model to Kenya and Uganda. Health benefit, or effectiveness, from HPV vaccination was measured in terms of life expectancy, and costs were measured in international dollars (I$). The incremental cost of the 9-valent vaccine included the added cost of the vaccine counterbalanced by costs averted from additional cancer cases prevented. All future costs and health benefits were discounted at an annual rate of 3% in the base case analysis. We conducted sensitivity analyses to investigate how infection with multiple HPV types, unidentifiable HPV types in cancer cases, and cross-protection against non-vaccine types could affect the potential cost range of the 9-valent vaccine. In the base case analysis in Kenya, we found that vaccination with the 9-valent vaccine was very cost-effective (i.e., had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below per-capita GDP), compared to the current vaccines provided the added cost of the 9-valent vaccine did not exceed I$9.7 per vaccinated girl. To be considered very cost-effective, the added cost per vaccinated girl could go up to I$5.2 and I$16.2 in the worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times per-capita GDP where the 9-valent vaccine would be considered cost-effective, the thresholds of added costs associated with the 9-valent vaccine were I$27.3, I$14.5 and I$45.3 per vaccinated girl for the base case, worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. In Uganda, vaccination with the 9-valent vaccine was very cost-effective when the added cost of the 9-valent vaccine did not exceed I$8.3 per vaccinated girl. To be considered very cost-effective, the added cost per vaccinated girl could go up to I$4.5 and I$13.7 in the worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times per-capita GDP, the thresholds of added costs associated with the 9-valent vaccine were I$23.4, I$12.6 and I$38.4 per vaccinated girl for the base case, worst-case and best-case scenarios, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a threshold range of incremental costs associated with the 9-valent HPV vaccine that would make it a cost-effective intervention in comparison to currently available HPV vaccines in Kenya and Uganda. These prices represent a 71% and 61% increase over the price offered to the GAVI Alliance ($5 per dose) for the currently available 2- and 4-valent vaccines in Kenya and Uganda, respectively. Despite evidence of cost-effectiveness, critical challenges around affordability and feasibility of HPV vaccination and other competing needs in low-resource settings such as Kenya and Uganda remain.

The theoretical impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccines that protect against sexually transmitted infections and disease

Sexually transmitted diseases, a source of widespread morbidity and sometimes mortality, are caused by a diverse group of infections with a common route of transmission. Existing vaccines against hepatitis B virus (HBV) and human papilloma virus 16, 18, 6 and 11 are highly efficacious and cost effective. In reviewing the potential role for other vaccines against sexually transmitted infections (STIs) a series of questions needs to be addressed about the burden of disease, the potential characteristics of a new vaccine, and the impact of other interventions. These questions can be viewed in the light of the population dynamics of sexually transmitted infections as a group and how a vaccine can impact these dynamics. Mathematical models show the potential for substantial impact, especially if vaccines are widely used. To better make the case for sexually transmitted infection vaccines we need better data and analyses of the burden of disease, especially severe disease. However, cost effectiveness analyses using a wide range of assumptions show that STI vaccines would be cost effective and their development a worthwhile investment.

Cost-effectiveness of female human papillomavirus vaccination in 179 countries: a PRIME modelling study

BACKGROUND

Introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in settings with the highest burden of HPV is not universal, partly because of the absence of quantitative estimates of country-specific effects on health and economic costs. We aimed to develop and validate a simple generic model of such effects that could be used and understood in a range of settings with little external support.

METHODS

We developed the Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) model to assess cost-effectiveness and health effects of vaccination of girls against HPV before sexual debut in terms of burden of cervical cancer and mortality. PRIME models incidence according to proposed vaccine efficacy against HPV 16/18, vaccine coverage, cervical cancer incidence and mortality, and HPV type distribution. It assumes lifelong vaccine protection and no changes to other screening programmes or vaccine uptake. We validated PRIME against existing reports of HPV vaccination cost-effectiveness, projected outcomes for 179 countries (assuming full vaccination of 12-year-old girls), and outcomes for 71 phase 2 GAVI-eligible countries (using vaccine uptake data from the GAVI Alliance). We assessed differences between countries in terms of cost-effectiveness and health effects.

FINDINGS

In validation, PRIME reproduced cost-effectiveness conclusions for 24 of 26 countries from 17 published studies, and for all 72 countries in a published study of GAVI-eligible countries. Vaccination of a cohort of 58 million 12-year-old girls in 179 countries prevented 690,000 cases of cervical cancer and 420,000 deaths during their lifetime (mostly in low-income or middle-income countries), at a net cost of US$4 billion. HPV vaccination was very cost effective (with every disability-adjusted life-year averted costing less than the gross domestic product per head) in 156 (87%) of 179 countries. Introduction of the vaccine in countries without national HPV vaccination at present would prevent substantially more cases of cervical cancer than in countries with such programmes, although the disparity has narrowed since 2012. If 71 phase 2 GAVI-eligible countries adopt vaccination according to forecasts, then in 2070 GAVI Alliance-funded vaccination could prevent 200,000 cases of cervical cancer and 100,000 deaths in some of the highest-burden countries.

INTERPRETATION

Large between-country disparities exist for HPV vaccination, with countries with the most to gain yet to introduce national HPV vaccination. Support from the GAVI Alliance could help to reduce such disparities, but a substantial burden will remain even after presently projected vaccine introductions.

FUNDING

WHO.

Human Papillomavirus vaccination acceptability among female university students in South Africa

BACKGROUND

The objectives of this present study were to assess the awareness of cervical cancer and its risk factors among female undergraduates in South Africa, and to determine the their level of acceptability of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted in March 2013 among 440 full time undergraduate female students.

RESULTS

Of those students who never had sex (n=163), 96 (58.9%) had ever heard of cervical cancer and only 12 students (12.5%) knew that HPV causes cervical cancer. More than a third (35.4%) of the students correctly said that sexual intercourse before age of 18 years is a risk factor for cervical cancer and 55.2% of the students knew about the Pap smear test which is used for screening cervical cancer. The majority (77.3%) were willing to accept HPV vaccination. Results revealed that students who knew about the Pap smear test, and were aware that having multiple sex partners, sexual intercourse before the age of 18 years, smoking and having contracted any STDs are risk factors for cervical cancer were more likely to accept HPV vaccination compared to other groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The general knowledge of South African female university students about cervical cancer is not sufficient but they have positive attitudes toward getting vaccinated with the HPV vaccine.

The estimated mortality impact of vaccinations forecast to be administered during 2011-2020 in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance

INTRODUCTION

From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance.

METHODS

The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011-2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country.

RESULTS

By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011-2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean.

CONCLUSION

Vaccination of persons during 2011-2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits.

Advancing social and economic development by investing in women's and children's health: a new Global Investment Framework

A new Global Investment Framework for Women's and Children's Health demonstrates how investment in women's and children's health will secure high health, social, and economic returns. We costed health systems strengthening and six investment packages for: maternal and newborn health, child health, immunisation, family planning, HIV/AIDS, and malaria. Nutrition is a cross-cutting theme. We then used simulation modelling to estimate the health and socioeconomic returns of these investments. Increasing health expenditure by just $5 per person per year up to 2035 in 74 high-burden countries could yield up to nine times that value in economic and social benefits. These returns include greater gross domestic product (GDP) growth through improved productivity, and prevention of the needless deaths of 147 million children, 32 million stillbirths, and 5 million women by 2035. These gains could be achieved by an additional investment of $30 billion per year, equivalent to a 2% increase above current spending.

Type-specific human papillomavirus biological features: validated model-based estimates

Infection with high-risk (hr) human papillomavirus (HPV) is considered the necessary cause of cervical cancer. Vaccination against HPV16 and 18 types, which are responsible of about 75% of cervical cancer worldwide, is expected to have a major global impact on cervical cancer occurrence. Valid estimates of the parameters that regulate the natural history of hrHPV infections are crucial to draw reliable projections of the impact of vaccination. We devised a mathematical model to estimate the probability of infection transmission, the rate of clearance, and the patterns of immune response following the clearance of infection of 13 hrHPV types. To test the validity of our estimates, we fitted the same transmission model to two large independent datasets from Italy and Sweden and assessed finding consistency. The two populations, both unvaccinated, differed substantially by sexual behaviour, age distribution, and study setting (screening for cervical cancer or Chlamydia trachomatis infection). Estimated transmission probability of hrHPV types (80% for HPV16, 73%-82% for HPV18, and above 50% for most other types); clearance rates decreasing as a function of time since infection; and partial protection against re-infection with the same hrHPV type (approximately 20% for HPV16 and 50% for the other types) were similar in the two countries. The model could accurately predict the HPV16 prevalence observed in Italy among women who were not infected three years before. In conclusion, our models inform on biological parameters that cannot at the moment be measured directly from any empirical data but are essential to forecast the impact of HPV vaccination programmes.

Cost-effectiveness of the vaccine against human papillomavirus in the Brazilian Amazon region

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cost-utility of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination on the prevention of cervical cancer in the Brazilian Amazon region.

METHODS

A Markov cohort model was developed to simulate the natural evolution of HPV and its progress to cervical cancer, considering the current preventive programs and treatment costs. The one-year transition probabilities were mainly based on empirical data of local and national studies. The model evaluated the addition of the vaccine to three cervical cancer-screening scenarios (0, 3 or 10 exams throughout life).

RESULTS

The scenario of three Pap tests resulted in satisfactory calibration (base case). The addition of HPV vaccination would reduce by 35% the incidence of cervical cancer (70% vaccination coverage). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$ 825 for each quality-adjusted life year gained. The sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of this result, and duration of immunity was the parameter with greater variation in incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

CONCLUSION

Vaccination has a favorable profile in terms of cost-utility, and its inclusion in the immunization schedule would result in a substantial reduction in incidence and mortality of invasive cervical cancer in the Brazilian Amazon region.

Addressing the growing international challenge of cancer: a multinational perspective

Leaders in cancer research and policy from 15 economically diverse countries met at the U.S. National Institutes of Health in November 2012 to discuss opportunities to reduce cancer incidence and mortality, improve cancer care, and increase our understanding of disease pathophysiology. Here, we present recommendations that the participants believe will enable faster progress in addressing the growing international challenge of cancer.

Development and impact of human papillomavirus vaccines

Cervical cancer is a global health crisis that disproportionately affects developing nations and underserved populations. Two vaccines targeting HPV-16 and 18, which account for 70% of invasive cervical carcinomas, are licensed in the United States and numerous countries worldwide. Both vaccine formulations have shown excellent efficacy with minimal toxicity. Numerous questions remain, including cost-effectiveness, vaccination of males, societal acceptance of HPV vaccination, and cervical dysplasia screening in the HPV-immunized population. Access to vaccination for underserved populations both in developed and resource-poor nations remains an issue. Multivalent vaccines that encompass additional oncogenic HPV strains are under development.

Reproductive and maternal health in the post-2015 era: cervical cancer must be a priority

Ruby Singhrao and colleagues propose four arguments for why cervical cancer screening and treatment should be prioritized. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination in low and middle income countries: a systematic review

The World Health Organization recommends establishing that human papillomavirus vaccination is cost-effective before vaccine introduction. We searched Pubmed, Embase and the Cochrane Library to 1 April 2012 for economic evaluations of human papillomavirus vaccination in low and middle income countries. We found 25 articles, but almost all low income countries and many middle income countries lacked country-specific studies. Methods, assumptions and consequently results varied widely, even for studies conducted for the same country. Despite the heterogeneity, most studies conclude that vaccination is likely to be cost-effective and possibly even cost saving, particularly in settings without organized cervical screening programmes. However, study uncertainty could be reduced by clarity about vaccine prices and vaccine delivery costs. The review supports extending vaccination to low income settings where vaccine prices are competitive, donor funding is available, cervical cancer burden is high and screening options are limited.

Primary prophylactic human papillomavirus vaccination programs: future perspective on global impact

Of the 40 types of human papillomavirus that can infect the mucosal epithelium, four types can now be prevented using prophylactic vaccination. Two of these types (high-risk types 16 and 18) cause 70% of cervical cancers, a proportion of other genital cancers and a subset of head and neck cancers. The low-risk types 6 and 11 cause 90% of genital warts and the disease recurrent respiratory papillomatosis. Thus, if primary HPV vaccination programs can be implemented effectively, the potential for a reduction in global disease burden is great. This article considers the current issues and challenges in delivering primary HPV vaccination programs effectively and the likely impact of the vaccines in both the near and more distant future.

Financial implications of male circumcision scale-up for the prevention of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in a sub-Saharan African community

BACKGROUND

The financial implications of male circumcision (MC) scale-up in sub-Saharan Africa associated with reduced HIV have been evaluated. However, no analysis has incorporated the expected reduction of a comprehensive set of other sexually transmitted infections including human papillomavirus, herpes simplex virus type 2, genital ulcer disease, bacterial vaginosis, and trichomoniasis.

METHODS

A Markov model tracked a dynamic population undergoing potential MC scale-up, as individuals experienced MC procedures, procedure-related adverse events, and MC-reduced sexually transmitted infections and accrued any associated costs. Rakai, Uganda, was used as a prototypical rural sub-Saharan African community. Monte Carlo microsimulations evaluated outcomes under 4 alternative scale-up strategies to reach 80% MC coverage among men aged 15 to 49 years, in addition to a baseline strategy defined by current MC rates in central Uganda. Financial outcomes included direct medical expenses only and were evaluated over 5 and 25 years. Costs were discounted to the beginning of each period, coinciding with the start of MC scale-up, and expressed in US $2012.

RESULTS

Cost savings from infections averted by MC vary from US $197,531 after 5 years of a scale-up program focusing on adolescent/adult procedures to more than US $13 million after 25 years, under a strategy incorporating increased infant MCs. Over a 5-year period, reduction in HIV contributes to 50% of cost savings, and for 25 years, this contribution rises to nearly 90%.

CONCLUSIONS

Sexually transmitted infections other than HIV contribute to cost savings associated with MC scale-up. Previous analyses, focusing exclusively on the financial impact through averted HIV, may have underestimated true cost savings by 10% to 50%.

Cost-effectiveness of Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine in low- and middle-income countries: regional analysis and assessment of major determinants

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) conjugate vaccine in low- and middle-income countries and identify the model variables, which are most important for the result.

STUDY DESIGN

A static decision tree model was developed to predict incremental costs and health impacts. Estimates were generated for 4 country groups: countries eligible for funding by the GAVI Alliance in Africa and Asia, lower middle-income countries, and upper middle-income countries. Values, including disease incidence, case fatality rates, and treatment costs, were based on international country estimates and the scientific literature.

RESULTS

From the societal perspective, it is estimated that the probability of Hib conjugate vaccine cost saving is 34%-53% in Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization eligible African and Asian countries, respectively. In middle-income countries, costs per discounted disability adjusted life year averted are between US$37 and US$733. Variation in vaccine prices and risks of meningitis sequelae and mortality explain most of the difference in results. For all country groups, disease incidence cause the largest part of the uncertainty in the result.

CONCLUSIONS

Hib conjugate vaccine is cost saving or highly cost-effective in low- and middle-income settings. This conclusion is especially influenced by the recent decline in Hib conjugate vaccine prices and new data revealing the high costs of lost productivity associated with meningitis sequelae.

Delivery cost of human papillomavirus vaccination of young adolescent girls in Peru, Uganda and Viet Nam

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the incremental delivery cost of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of young adolescent girls in Peru, Uganda and Viet Nam.

METHODS

Data were collected from a sample of facilities that participated in five demonstration projects for hpv vaccine delivery: school-based delivery was used in Peru, Uganda and Viet Nam; health-centre-based delivery was also used in Viet Nam; and integrated delivery, which involved existing health services, was also used in Uganda. Microcosting methods were used to guide data collection on the use of resources (i.e. staff, supplies and equipment) and data were obtained from government, demonstration project and health centre administrative records. Delivery costs were expressed in 2009 United States dollars (US$). Exclusively project-related expenses and the cost of the vaccine were excluded.

FINDINGS

The economic delivery cost per vaccine dose ranged from US$ 1.44 for integrated outreach in Uganda to US$ 3.88 for school-based delivery in Peru. In Viet Nam, the lowest cost per dose was US$ 1.92 for health-centre-based delivery. Cost profiles revealed that, in general, the largest contributing factors were project start-up costs and recurrent personnel costs. The delivery cost of HPV vaccine was higher than published costs for traditional vaccines recommended by the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI).

CONCLUSION

The cost of delivering HPV vaccine to young adolescent girls in Peru, Uganda and Viet Nam was higher than that for vaccines currently in the EPI schedule. The cost per vaccine dose was lower when delivery was integrated into existing health services.

Competing mortality and fracture risk assessment

SUMMARY

Failure to account for competing mortality gave higher estimates of 10-year fracture probability than if appropriate adjustment is made for competing mortality, particularly among subgroups with higher mortality. A modified Kaplan-Meier method is easy to implement and provides an alternative approach to existing methods for competing mortality risk adjustment.

INTRODUCTION

A unique feature of FRAX(®) is that 10-year fracture probability accounts for mortality as a competing risk. We compared the effect of competing mortality adjustment on nonparametric and parametric methods of fracture probability estimation.

METHODS

The Manitoba Bone Mineral Density (BMD) database was used to identify men and women age ≥50 years with FRAX probabilities calculated using femoral neck BMD (N = 39,063). Fractures were assessed from administrative data (N = 2,543 with a major osteoporotic fracture, N = 549 with a hip fracture during mean 5.3 years follow-up).

RESULTS

The following subgroups with higher mortality were identified: men, age >80 years, high fracture probability, and presence of diabetes. Failure to account for competing mortality in these subgroups overestimated fracture probability by 16-56 % with the standard nonparametric (Kaplan-Meier) method and 15-29 % with the standard parametric (Cox) model. When the outcome was hip fractures, failure to account for competing mortality overestimated hip fracture probability by 18-36 % and 17-35 %, respectively. A simple modified Kaplan-Meier method showed very close agreement with methods that adjusted for competing mortality (within 2 %).

CONCLUSIONS

Failure to account for competing mortality risk gives considerably higher estimates of 10-year fracture probability than if adjustment is made for this competing risk.

Economic analyses to support decisions about HPV vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: a consensus report and guide for analysts

Low- and middle-income countries need to consider economic issues such as cost-effectiveness, affordability and sustainability before introducing a program for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. However, many such countries lack the technical capacity and data to conduct their own analyses. Analysts informing policy decisions should address the following questions: 1) Is an economic analysis needed? 2) Should analyses address costs, epidemiological outcomes, or both? 3) If costs are considered, what sort of analysis is needed? 4) If outcomes are considered, what sort of model should be used? 5) How complex should the analysis be? 6) How should uncertainty be captured? 7) How should model results be communicated? Selecting the appropriate analysis is essential to ensure that all the important features of the decision problem are correctly represented, but that the analyses are not more complex than necessary. This report describes the consensus of an expert group convened by the World Health Organization, prioritizing key issues to be addressed when considering economic analyses to support HPV vaccine introduction in these countries.

Female human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination: global uptake and the impact of attitudes

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the causative agent in cervical cancer and has been implicated in a range of other malignancies. Preventative vaccines are now internationally available and provide high levels of protection from common viral strains. The introduction of a comprehensive vaccination programme (except 'program' in computers) could prevent over 60% of current cervical cancer cases, but this is dependent on such programmes achieving a high level of coverage. In this review, we summarise the current trends in female HPV vaccination coverage throughout the world, and place it in the context of available research on attitudes towards vaccination amongst the public and health professionals. Where countries have the resources for mass vaccination programmes, uptake has varied. School-based opt-out programmes consistently achieve highest coverage, whilst countries and regions without systematic vaccination schemes have low coverage. In all countries, the success of vaccination programmes is dependent on the support of the public and healthcare professionals. Whilst public acceptance is dependent on multiple factors, it has repeatedly been shown that recommendation by a health professional, particularly clinicians, is key to vaccine uptake. Worryingly, it appears that a proportion of clinicians still have significant reservations about promoting vaccination, particularly for younger age groups. A commitment now, to fully educating both the public and clinicians, has the potential to make a dramatic future impact.

Human papillomavirus vaccines: where do they fit in HIV-infected individuals?

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the etiological agent for cervical cancer and a large majority of anal cancers worldwide. In 2006 two preventive vaccines against the HPV were approved by the US Food and Drug Administration and have since been approved in over 100 countries. HIV-infected populations are at an increased risk for HPV-related cancers. None of the efficacy trials for these vaccines included HIV-infected populations. However, studies in HIV-infected children and adult men show that the vaccine is safe and highly immunogenic. Studies evaluating the vaccine in HIV-infected women are in progress. Based on these studies, the American Council on Immunization Practices recommends HPV vaccination for all HIV-infected children and young adults up to age 26 years. HPV vaccine policies in resource-limited countries, many of which have a high prevalence of HIV infection, are still being developed. Future studies should examine the role of HPV vaccination for older HIV-infected adults who likely have ongoing HPV infection.

Costs of delivering human papillomavirus vaccination to schoolgirls in Mwanza Region, Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer is the leading cause of female cancer-related deaths in Tanzania. Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) offers a new opportunity to control this disease. This study aimed to estimate the costs of a school-based HPV vaccination project in three districts in Mwanza Region (NCT ID: NCT01173900), Tanzania and to model incremental scaled-up costs of a regional vaccination program.

METHODS

We first conducted a top-down cost analysis of the vaccination project, comparing observed costs of age-based (girls born in 1998) and class-based (class 6) vaccine delivery in a total of 134 primary schools. Based on the observed project costs, we then modeled incremental costs of a scaled-up vaccination program for Mwanza Region from the perspective of the Tanzanian government, assuming that HPV vaccines would be delivered through the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI).

RESULTS

Total economic project costs for delivering 3 doses of HPV vaccine to 4,211 girls were estimated at about US$349,400 (including a vaccine price of US$5 per dose). Costs per fully-immunized girl were lower for class-based delivery than for age-based delivery. Incremental economic scaled-up costs for class-based vaccination of 50,290 girls in Mwanza Region were estimated at US$1.3 million. Economic scaled-up costs per fully-immunized girl were US$26.41, including HPV vaccine at US$5 per dose. Excluding vaccine costs, vaccine could be delivered at an incremental economic cost of US$3.09 per dose and US$9.76 per fully-immunized girl. Financial scaled-up costs, excluding costs of the vaccine and salaries of existing staff were estimated at US$1.73 per dose.

CONCLUSIONS

Project costs of class-based vaccination were found to be below those of age-based vaccination because of more eligible girls being identified and higher vaccine uptake. We estimate that vaccine can be delivered at costs that would make HPV vaccination a very cost-effective intervention. Potentially, integrating HPV vaccine delivery with cost-effective school-based health interventions and a reduction of vaccine price below US$5 per dose would further reduce the costs per fully HPV-immunized girl.

Cost-effectiveness and economic benefits of vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Public health interventions that prevent mortality and morbidity have greatly increased over the past decade. Immunization is one of these preventive interventions, with a potential to bring economic benefits beyond just health benefits. While vaccines are considered to be a cost-effective public health intervention, implementation has become increasingly challenging. As vaccine costs rise and competing priorities increase, economic evidence is likely to play an increasingly important role in vaccination decisions.

METHODS

To assist policy decisions today and potential investments in the future, we provide a systematic review of the literature on the cost-effectiveness and economic benefits of vaccines in low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2010. The review identified 108 relevant articles from 51 countries spanning 23 vaccines from three major electronic databases (Pubmed, Embase and Econlit).

RESULTS

Among the 44 articles that reported costs per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted, vaccines cost less than or equal to $100 per DALY averted in 23 articles (52%). Vaccines cost less than $500 per DALY averted in 34 articles (77%), and less than $1000 per DALY averted in 38 articles (86%) in one of the scenarios. 24 articles (22%) examined broad level economic benefits of vaccines such as greater future wage-earning capacity and cost savings from averting disease outbreaks. 60 articles (56%) gathered data from a primary source. There were little data on long-term and societal economic benefits such as morbidity-related productivity gains, averting catastrophic health expenditures, growth in gross domestic product (GDP), and economic implications of demographic changes resulting from vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

This review documents the available evidence and shows that vaccination in low- and middle-income countries brings important economic benefits. The cost-effectiveness studies reviewed suggest to policy makers that vaccines are an efficient investment. This review further highlights key gaps in the available literature that would benefit from additional research, especially in the area of evaluating the broader economic benefits of vaccination in the developing world.

Human papillomavirus vaccination in low-resource countries: lack of evidence to support vaccinating sexually active women

Vaccines against the human papillomaviruses (HPV) that cause around 70% of cervical cancer cases worldwide are highly efficacious when administered before infection with the viruses, which occurs soon after initiation of sexual activity. Despite recommendations from key public health bodies that the primary target population for HPV vaccination should be young adolescent girls, numerous articles have suggested widening the target age group to include older adolescent girls and adult women. These articles cite evidence of efficacy and cost-effectiveness when making recommendations, and they rarely take into account the difficult resource-allocation issues faced by decision makers in low-income countries. Authors and sponsors of these articles are usually from high-income countries and sometimes include vaccine manufacturers. This review discusses the strengths and weaknesses of several types of evidence offered by these papers in support of vaccination of a broad age range of girls and women. It concludes that the greatest public health benefit and value for resources will come from vaccinating girls before sexual debut and exposure to HPV, particularly in low-resource areas.

Universal routine HPV vaccination for young girls in Uganda: a review of opportunities and potential obstacles

This article reviews the existing realities in Uganda to identify opportunities and potential obstacles of providing universal routine HPV vaccination to young adolescent girls. Cervical cancer is a public health priority in Uganda where it contributes to about 50-60% of all female malignancies. It is associated with a dismal 5-year relative survival of approximately 20%. With adequate financial resources, primary prevention through vaccination is feasible using existing education and health infrastructure. Cost-effectiveness studies show that at a cost of US$2 per dose, the current vaccines would be cost effective. With optimal (≥70%) coverage of the target population, the lifetime risk of cervical cancer could be reduced by >50%. Uganda fulfils 4 out of the 5 criteria set by the WHO for the introduction of routine HPV vaccination to young adolescent girls. The existing political commitment, community support for immunization and the favorable laws and policy environment all provide an opportunity that should not be missed to introduce this much needed vaccine to the young adolescent girls. However, sustainable financing by the government without external assistances remains a major obstacle. Also, the existing health delivery systems would require strengthening to cope with the delivery of HPV vaccine to a population that is normally not targeted for routine vaccination. Given the high incidence of cervical cancer and in the absence of a national screening program, universal HPV vaccination of Ugandan adolescent girls is critical for cervical cancer prevention.

Epidemiologic characterization of human papillomavirus infection in rural Chaozhou, eastern Guangdong Province of China

Background

Human papilloma virus (HPV) infection was the main cause of cervical cancer. There were only a few reports and detailed data about epidemiological research of HPV infection in rural population of China.

Materials and Methods

The cervical cells of rural Chaozhou women were collected, and multiplex real time PCR was firstly performed to detect high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) infection, which could detect 13 types of HR-HPV (types 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, and 68). Then, HPV-positive samples were typed by HPV GenoArray test.

Results

HR-HPV DNA was detected by multiplex real time-PCR in 3830 of 48559 cases (7.89%). There was a peak incidence in age of 55–60 years group, and a lower incidence in who lived in plain group compared with suburban, mountain and seashore group. 3380 cases of HPV positive sample were genotyped, 11.01% (372/3380) cases could not be classified, among the typed 3008 cases, 101 cases were identified without HR-HPV type infection, 2907 cases were infected with one HR-HPV type at least, the 6 most common HR-HPV types in descending order of infection, were type 52 (33.4%, 16 (20.95%), 58 (15.93%), 33 (9.94%), 68 (9.22%) and 18 (8.36%). The combined prevalence of HPV types 16 and 18 accounted for 28.52% of total infection. However, type 52 plus 58 presented 48.23% of total infection. 2209/2907 cases were infected with a single HPV type and 698/2907 cases were infected with multiple types, and multiple infection constituent ratio increased with age, with a peak incidence in age 55–60 years group.

Conclusions

Our findings showed low prevalence of HPV vaccine types (16 and 18) and relatively high prevalence of HPV-52 and -58, support the hypothesis that the second-generation HPV vaccines including HPV-52 and -58 may offer higher protection for women in rural Guangdong Province.

Economic and humanistic burden of external genital warts

External genital warts (EGW) are a sexually transmitted infection caused by various strains of human papillomavirus (HPV). Several studies have described the direct and indirect costs of EGW, while others have reported on the burden of EGW in terms of the impact on the quality of life (QOL) of patients. The arrival of a quadrivalent HPV vaccine that protects against both cervical cancer and EGW requires a proper understanding of the impact of vaccines on costs and QOL. Using pre-defined search terms and inclusion/exclusion criteria, we performed a systematic review of the economic and humanistic burden of EGW. The focus of our review was on literature describing the direct and indirect costs of EGW per episode of care (EoC) or per year, as well as the impact of EGW on disease-specific, generic, or preference-based QOL measures. We also reviewed the literature on the national economic burden of EGW from the perspectives of different countries. Other aspects of EGW management that can inform economic modelling studies, such as length of EoC, number of physician visits and indirect costs, were also explored. Our review sheds light on the high economic and humanistic burden of EGW and important differences in the costs between men and women, as well as the differences in health resource utilization and costs across countries. Our study also highlights the dearth of information on the impact of EGW on the QOL and productivity of patients.