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Thompson KM. Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective Part II. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2017; 37:1041-1051. [PMID: 28471528 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12823] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2017] [Accepted: 03/16/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Measles and rubella continue to circulate globally. Complementing Part I of the special issue, this introduction provides a contrast between other global eradication initiatives and the experience with measles and rubella eradication to date. This introduction builds on the syntheses of the literature provided in Part I and it describes the creation and application of a national risk assessment tool and the development of a dynamic disease transmission model to support global efforts to optimally manage measles and rubella globally using vaccines. Currently, efforts to eradicate measles and rubella suffer from the lack of a commitment to global eradication by key stakeholders, despite strong evidence that their eradication represents a better health and financial option than continued control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kimberly M Thompson
- Kid Risk, Inc., Orlando, FL, USA
- University of Central Florida, College of Medicine, Orlando, FL, USA
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Fitchett JRA. Why transition matters as much as eradication: lessons from global polio surveillance. Int Health 2017; 9:137-138. [PMID: 28582559 PMCID: PMC7108566 DOI: 10.1093/inthealth/ihx015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2017] [Accepted: 04/28/2017] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
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Thompson KM, Duintjer Tebbens RJ. How should we prepare for an outbreak of reintroduced live polioviruses? Future Virol 2017. [DOI: 10.2217/fvl-2016-0131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Kimberly M Thompson
- Kid Risk, Inc., Orlando, FL 32832, USA
- College of Medicine, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32827, USA
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Thompson KM, Tebbens RJD. How should we prepare for an outbreak of reintroduced live polioviruses? Future Virol 2017; 12:41-44. [PMID: 33365053 PMCID: PMC7734199 DOI: 10.2217/fvl-2017-0131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2016] [Accepted: 12/05/2016] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Kimberly M Thompson
- Kid Risk, Inc., Orlando, FL 32832, USA.,College of Medicine, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32827, USA
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Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Thompson KM. Costs and Benefits of Including Inactivated in Addition to Oral Poliovirus Vaccine in Outbreak Response After Cessation of Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Use. MDM Policy Pract 2017; 2:2381468317697002. [PMID: 30288417 PMCID: PMC6124926 DOI: 10.1177/2381468317697002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2016] [Accepted: 12/02/2016] [Indexed: 01/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: After stopping serotype 2-containing oral poliovirus vaccine use, serotype 2 poliovirus outbreaks may still occur and require outbreak response supplemental immunization activities (oSIAs). Current oSIA plans include the use of both serotype 2 monovalent oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV2) and inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV). Methods: We used an existing model to compare the effectiveness of mOPV2 oSIAs with or without IPV in response to a hypothetical postcessation serotype 2 outbreak in northwest Nigeria. We considered strategies that co-administer IPV with mOPV2, use IPV only for older age groups, or use only IPV during at least one oSIA. We considered the cost and supply implications and estimated from a societal perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness and incremental net benefits of adding IPV to oSIAs in the context of this hypothetical outbreak in 2017. Results: Adding IPV to the first or second oSIA resulted in a 4% to 6% reduction in expected polio cases compared to exclusive mOPV2 oSIAs. We found the greatest benefit of IPV use if added preemptively as a ring around the initial oSIA target population, and negligible benefit if added to later oSIAs or older age groups. We saw an increase in expected polio cases if IPV replaced mOPV2 during an oSIA. None of the oSIA strategies that included IPV for this outbreak represented a cost-effective or net beneficial intervention compared to reliance on mOPV2 only. Conclusions: While adding IPV to oSIAs results in marginal improvements in performance, the poor cost-effectiveness and current limited IPV supply make it economically unattractive for high-risk settings in which IPV does not significantly affect transmission.
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Shretta R, Avanceña ALV, Hatefi A. The economics of malaria control and elimination: a systematic review. Malar J 2016; 15:593. [PMID: 27955665 PMCID: PMC5154116 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-016-1635-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2016] [Accepted: 11/24/2016] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Declining donor funding and competing health priorities threaten the sustainability of malaria programmes. Elucidating the cost and benefits of continued investments in malaria could encourage sustained political and financial commitments. The evidence, although available, remains disparate. This paper reviews the existing literature on the economic and financial cost and return of malaria control, elimination and eradication. METHODS A review of articles that were published on or before September 2014 on the cost and benefits of malaria control and elimination was performed. Studies were classified based on their scope and were analysed according to two major categories: cost of malaria control and elimination to a health system, and cost-benefit studies. Only studies involving more than two control or elimination interventions were included. Outcomes of interest were total programmatic cost, cost per capita, and benefit-cost ratios (BCRs). All costs were converted to 2013 US$ for standardization. RESULTS Of the 6425 articles identified, 54 studies were included in this review. Twenty-two were focused on elimination or eradication while 32 focused on intensive control. Forty-eight per cent of studies included in this review were published on or after 2000. Overall, the annual per capita cost of malaria control to a health system ranged from $0.11 to $39.06 (median: $2.21) while that for malaria elimination ranged from $0.18 to $27 (median: $3.00). BCRs of investing in malaria control and elimination ranged from 2.4 to over 145. CONCLUSION Overall, investments needed for malaria control and elimination varied greatly amongst the various countries and contexts. In most cases, the cost of elimination was greater than the cost of control. At the same time, the benefits of investing in malaria greatly outweighed the costs. While the cost of elimination in most cases was greater than the cost of control, the benefits greatly outweighed the cost. Information from this review provides guidance to national malaria programmes on the cost and benefits of malaria elimination in the absence of data. Importantly, the review highlights the need for more robust economic analyses using standard inputs and methods to strengthen the evidence needed for sustained financing for malaria elimination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rima Shretta
- The Global Health Group, University of California, San Francisco, 550 16th St, 3rd Floor, Box 1224, San Francisco, CA 94158 USA
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, 4002 Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Anton L. V. Avanceña
- The Global Health Group, University of California, San Francisco, 550 16th St, 3rd Floor, Box 1224, San Francisco, CA 94158 USA
| | - Arian Hatefi
- The Global Health Group, University of California, San Francisco, 550 16th St, 3rd Floor, Box 1224, San Francisco, CA 94158 USA
- Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA USA
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Thompson KM, Duintjer Tebbens RJ. Framework for Optimal Global Vaccine Stockpile Design for Vaccine-Preventable Diseases: Application to Measles and Cholera Vaccines as Contrasting Examples. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2016; 36:1487-1509. [PMID: 25109229 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12265] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Managing the dynamics of vaccine supply and demand represents a significant challenge with very high stakes. Insufficient vaccine supplies can necessitate rationing, lead to preventable adverse health outcomes, delay the achievements of elimination or eradication goals, and/or pose reputation risks for public health authorities and/or manufacturers. This article explores the dynamics of global vaccine supply and demand to consider the opportunities to develop and maintain optimal global vaccine stockpiles for universal vaccines, characterized by large global demand (for which we use measles vaccines as an example), and nonuniversal (including new and niche) vaccines (for which we use oral cholera vaccine as an example). We contrast our approach with other vaccine stockpile optimization frameworks previously developed for the United States pediatric vaccine stockpile to address disruptions in supply and global emergency response vaccine stockpiles to provide on-demand vaccines for use in outbreaks. For measles vaccine, we explore the complexity that arises due to different formulations and presentations of vaccines, consideration of rubella, and the context of regional elimination goals. We conclude that global health policy leaders and stakeholders should procure and maintain appropriate global vaccine rotating stocks for measles and rubella vaccine now to support current regional elimination goals, and should probably also do so for other vaccines to help prevent and control endemic or epidemic diseases. This work suggests the need to better model global vaccine supplies to improve efficiency in the vaccine supply chain, ensure adequate supplies to support elimination and eradication initiatives, and support progress toward the goals of the Global Vaccine Action Plan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kimberly M Thompson
- Kid Risk, Inc, 10524 Moss Park Rd., Ste. 204-364, Orlando, FL, USA
- University of Central Florida, College of Medicine, Orlando, FL, USA
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Thompson KM, Odahowski CL. The Costs and Valuation of Health Impacts of Measles and Rubella Risk Management Policies. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2016; 36:1357-1382. [PMID: 26249331 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12459] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2015] [Accepted: 05/26/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
National and global health policymakers require good information about the costs and benefits of their investments in measles and rubella immunization programs. Building on our review of the existing measles and rubella health economics literature, we develop inputs for use in regional and global models of the expected future benefits and costs of vaccination, treatment, surveillance, and other global coordination activities. Given diversity in the world and limited data, we characterize the costs for countries according to the 2013 World Bank income levels using 2013 U.S. dollars (2013$US). We estimate that routine immunization and supplemental immunization activities will cost governments and donors over 2013$US 2.3 billion per year for the foreseeable future, with high-income countries accounting for 55% of the costs, to vaccinate global birth cohorts of approximately 134 million surviving infants and to protect the global population of over 7 billion people. We find significantly higher costs and health consequences of measles or rubella disease than with vaccine use, with the expected disability-adjusted life year (DALY) loss for case of disease generally at least 100 times the loss per vaccine dose. To support estimates of the economic benefits of investments in measles and/or rubella elimination or control, we characterize the probabilities of various sequelae of measles and rubella infections and vaccine adverse events, the DALY inputs for health outcomes, and the associated treatment costs. Managing measles and rubella to achieve the existing and future regional measles and rubella goals and the objectives of the Global Vaccine Action Plan will require an ongoing commitment of financial resources that will prevent adverse health outcomes and save the associated treatment costs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kimberly M Thompson
- Kid Risk, Inc, Orlando, FL, USA
- University of Central Florida, College of Medicine, Orlando, FL, USA
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Thompson KM, Cochi SL. Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective, Part I. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2016; 36:1288-96. [PMID: 27424287 PMCID: PMC10951992 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12655] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2014] [Revised: 05/26/2015] [Accepted: 06/09/2015] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Over the past 50 years, the use of vaccines led to significant decreases in the global burdens of measles and rubella, motivated at least in part by the successive development of global control and elimination targets. The Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) includes specific targets for regional elimination of measles and rubella in five of six regions of the World Health Organization by 2020. Achieving the GVAP measles and rubella goals will require significant immunization efforts and associated financial investments and political commitments. Planning and budgeting for these efforts can benefit from learning some important lessons from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). Following an overview of the global context of measles and rubella risks and discussion of lessons learned from the GPEI, we introduce the contents of the special issue on modeling and managing the risks of measles and rubella. This introduction describes the synthesis of the literature available to support evidence-based model inputs to support the development of an integrated economic and dynamic disease transmission model to support global efforts to optimally manage these diseases globally using vaccines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kimberly M. Thompson
- Kid Risk, Inc., Orlando, FL, USA
- College of Medicine, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA
| | - Stephen L. Cochi
- Center for Global Health, Global Immunization Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GA, USA
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Yehualashet YG, Wadda A, Agblewonu KB, Zhema T, Ibrahim AAA, Corr A, Linkins J, Mkanda P, Vaz RG, Nsubuga P, Ashogbon D. World Health Organization's Innovative Direct Disbursement Mechanism for Payment of Grassroots Immunization Personnel and Operations in Nigeria: 2004-2015. J Infect Dis 2016; 213 Suppl 3:S108-15. [PMID: 26908746 PMCID: PMC4818546 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiv485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background. Following the 1988 World Health Assembly resolution to eradicate polio, the government of Nigeria, with support from partners, has been implementing several rounds of supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) each year. In addition to the technical requirements, the success of the polio eradication initiative depends on timely provision of adequate financial resources. Disbursement of funds for SIAs and payment of allowances to numerous vaccination personnel at the grassroots level are enormous operational challenges in a country the size of Nigeria. Upon donors' request for a transparent and effective payment mechanism, the World Health Organization (WHO), in consultation with national counterparts, created the innovative direct disbursement mechanism (DDM) in 2004. The objective of the DDM was to timely deploy operational funds at the field level and directly pay vaccination personnel allowances at the grassroots level. Methods. A detailed operational guideline for funds disbursement was developed in close consultation with central and field stakeholders. Multiyear financial resource requirements and operational budgets for every campaign were produced by an interagency-coordinated finance subcommittee. The WHO engaged a bank and an accounting firm as DDM partners to support disbursement of and accounting for the SIA funds, respectively. The 37 WHO field offices were equipped with electronic financial systems to support the DDM process, and temporary payment sites were set up to facilitate payment to vaccination personnel at the grassroots level. Coordination meetings among DDM partners were held regularly to reconcile financial records and address operational challenges. Results. Between 2004 and 2014, DDM supported 99 polio and nonpolio vaccination campaigns, disbursing more than $370 million to about 16 million beneficiaries across 280 temporary payment sites. To mitigate security risks and reduce operational costs, the WHO and DDM partners introduced mobile payment to vaccination personnel in May 2015 in compliance with national regulations. A total of 97% of the targeted 1871 beneficiaries in 2 pilot sites were successfully paid through mobile payment, although some challenges remain to be addressed. Discussion. The DDM has met its objectives with a high rate of financial accountability and transparency, despite persistent operational and security challenges. With support from Nigeria, the Pakistan polio vaccination program successfully adopted the DDM. The DDM continues to play an important role in effective implementation of the polio endgame strategy and the national immunization strategic plan. As part of polio legacy planning, we recommend the DDM as a model for other opportunities that involve the engagement of large field-level teams as new vaccines are introduced in Nigeria and elsewhere.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Alieu Wadda
- World Health Organization, Country Representative Office
| | | | | | | | - Alhagie Corr
- World Health Organization, Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
| | | | - Pascal Mkanda
- World Health Organization, Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
| | - Rui G Vaz
- World Health Organization, Country Representative Office
| | | | - Daniel Ashogbon
- National Primary Health Care Development Agency, Abuja, Nigeria
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Yehualashet YG, Horton J, Mkanda P, Vaz RG, Afolabi O, Gashu SG, Banda R, O'Malley H, Nsubuga P. Intensified Local Resource Mobilization for the Polio Eradication Initiative: The Experience of World Health Organization in Nigeria During 2008-2015. J Infect Dis 2016; 213 Suppl 3:S101-7. [PMID: 26912380 PMCID: PMC4818553 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiv535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background. Since the World Health Assembly (WHA) resolved in 1988 to eradicate poliovirus, several rounds of immunization campaigns have been conducted by member states. By 2000, with the support of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners, the number of polio cases decreased by 99%. Eradicating the remaining 1% proved to be more challenging. Although the GPEI, being the largest public health project, required >$9 billion between 1988 and 2012, economic analysis showed the estimated incremental net benefits of $40 billion–$50 billion between 1988 and 2035. In 2012, the WHA declared that the completion of poliovirus eradication is a programmatic emergency for global public health. Nigeria, as one of 3 remaining polio-endemic countries, developed an emergency plan to interrupt the transmission of poliovirus. The plan included the introduction or scale-up of various new innovations and strategies, which had substantial financial implication. Methods. This is a retrospective study to document the intensified resource mobilization efforts made by the World Health Organization (WHO) in Nigeria to meet the increased financial requirements and bridge the remaining gap in funding. In addition to the established coordination platforms, the WHO Nigeria Country Office team directly engaged with national authorities, donors, and partners throughout the process of resource requirement analysis, project appraisals, proposal development, and implementation of activities, joint monitoring, and evaluation exercises. The office strengthened its capacity for direct funds disbursement and systematic implementation of a rigorous accountability framework. Results. Between 2008 and May 2015, $538 million was mobilized locally, of which 82% was mobilized since 2012. The percentage of the total funding requirements that were locally mobilized averaged 31% between 2008 and 2011 and increased to 70% between 2012 and May 2015. During the same period, the WHO Nigeria Country Office team produced and submitted 102 grant reports and facilitated >20 joint project assessment exercises. Discussion. The polio program in Nigeria has achieved unprecedented gains, despite prevailing security and operational challenges, with no case of wild poliovirus infection since July 2014. Through rigorous, transparent, and accountable funds management practice, the WHO country office in Nigeria gained donors' confidence. The locally mobilized funds have made a remarkable contribution to the successful implementation of the strategies set out in the polio emergency plan. We face the challenges of a narrow donor-base, donor fatigue, and competition among other emerging agencies joining the polio eradication initiative efforts over the last few years. We actively engage the national authorities and partners for effective coordination of the polio eradication initiative program and harmonization of resources, using the existing platforms at national, state, and local levels. We recommend strengthening the local resource mobilization machinery and broadening the donor base, to support the polio endgame strategy. Such efforts should also be adopted to support routine immunization, introduction of new vaccines, and strengthening of health systems in the country as part of polio legacy planning.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Janet Horton
- World Health Organization, Country Representative Office, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Pascal Mkanda
- World Health Organization, Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
| | - Rui G Vaz
- World Health Organization, Country Representative Office, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Oluwole Afolabi
- World Health Organization, Country Representative Office, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Sisay G Gashu
- World Health Organization, Country Representative Office, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Richard Banda
- World Health Organization, Country Representative Office, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Helena O'Malley
- World Health Organization, Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
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Garon J, Seib K, Orenstein WA, Ramirez Gonzalez A, Chang Blanc D, Zaffran M, Patel M. Polio endgame: the global switch from tOPV to bOPV. Expert Rev Vaccines 2016; 15:693-708. [PMID: 26751187 DOI: 10.1586/14760584.2016.1140041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Globally, polio cases have reached an all-time low, and type 2 poliovirus (one of three) is eradicated. Oral polio vaccine (OPV) has been the primary tool, however, in rare cases, OPV induces paralysis. In 2013, the World Health Assembly endorsed the phased withdrawal of OPV and introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) into childhood routine immunization schedules. Type 2 OPV will be withdrawn through a globally synchronized "switch" from trivalent OPV (all three types) to bivalent OPV (types 1 and 3). The switch will happen in 155 OPV-using countries between April 17(th) and May 1(st), 2016. Planned activities to reduce type 2 outbreak risks post-switch include the following: tOPV campaigns to increase type 2 immunity prior to the switch, monovalent OPV2 stockpiling to respond to outbreaks should they occur, containment of both wild and vaccine type 2 viruses, enhanced acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) and environmental surveillance, outbreak response protocols, and ensured access to IPV and bivalent OPV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julie Garon
- a Department of Infectious Diseases , Emory University School of Medicine , Atlanta , Georgia , USA
| | - Katherine Seib
- a Department of Infectious Diseases , Emory University School of Medicine , Atlanta , Georgia , USA
| | - Walter A Orenstein
- a Department of Infectious Diseases , Emory University School of Medicine , Atlanta , Georgia , USA
| | - Alejandro Ramirez Gonzalez
- b Department of Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals , World Health Organization , Geneva , Switzerland
| | - Diana Chang Blanc
- b Department of Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals , World Health Organization , Geneva , Switzerland
| | - Michel Zaffran
- b Department of Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals , World Health Organization , Geneva , Switzerland
| | - Manish Patel
- c Center for Vaccine Equity , Task Force for Global Health , Decatur , Georgia , USA
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Abstract
In the United States during the 1950's, polio was on the forefront of every provider and caregiver's mind. Today, most providers in the United States have never seen a case. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), which began in 1988 has reduced the number of cases by over 99%. The world is closer to achieving global eradication of polio than ever before but as long as poliovirus circulates anywhere in the world, every country is vulnerable. The global community can support the polio eradication effort through continued vaccination, surveillance, enforcing travel regulations and contributing financial support, partnerships and advocacy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julie R Garon
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Emory University School of Medicine, 1462 Clifton Road Northeast, Suite 446, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA
| | - Stephen L Cochi
- Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road Northeast, Mailstop A-04, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA
| | - Walter A Orenstein
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Emory University School of Medicine, 1462 Clifton Road Northeast, Suite 446, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.
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Houy N. The case for periodic OPV routine vaccination campaigns. J Theor Biol 2015; 389:20-7. [PMID: 26523796 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.09.032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2015] [Revised: 09/13/2015] [Accepted: 09/23/2015] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The possibility of periodic routine vaccination campaigns (PRVCs) is introduced in the context of a search for optimal oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) administration strategies. Like the usual continuous routine vaccination campaign (CRVC), PRVCs target only newborns. However, they are not necessarily implemented continuously in time. Using a dynamic and compartmental polio transmission model in a stochastic context, it is shown that some PRVCs can achieve much greater efficiency than CRVC in terms of probability of wild poliovirus (WPV) eradication, even though they never outperform CRVC in terms of total number of paralytic infections. Moreover, these PRVCs results can be obtained at a lower price than CRVC. It is also shown that, even though PRVCs do not perform better than pulse vaccination campaigns (PVCs) when only epidemiological outputs are valued, they can do so when a cost-benefit analysis is preferred.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicolas Houy
- Université de Lyon, Lyon F-69007, France; CNRS, GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne, Ecully F-69130, France.
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Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Pallansch MA, Cochi SL, Wassilak SGF, Thompson KM. An economic analysis of poliovirus risk management policy options for 2013-2052. BMC Infect Dis 2015; 15:389. [PMID: 26404632 PMCID: PMC4582932 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-015-1112-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2015] [Accepted: 09/07/2015] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The Global Polio Eradication Initiative plans for coordinated cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) after interrupting all wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission, but many questions remain related to long-term poliovirus risk management policies. Methods We used an integrated dynamic poliovirus transmission and stochastic risk model to simulate possible futures and estimate the health and economic outcomes of maintaining the 2013 status quo of continued OPV use in most developing countries compared with OPV cessation policies with various assumptions about global inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) adoption. Results Continued OPV use after global WPV eradication leads to continued high costs and/or high cases. Global OPV cessation comes with a high probability of at least one outbreak, which aggressive outbreak response can successfully control in most instances. A low but non-zero probability exists of uncontrolled outbreaks following a poliovirus reintroduction long after OPV cessation in a population in which IPV-alone cannot prevent poliovirus transmission. We estimate global incremental net benefits during 2013–2052 of approximately $16 billion (US$2013) for OPV cessation with at least one IPV routine immunization dose in all countries until 2024 compared to continued OPV use, although significant uncertainty remains associated with the frequency of exportations between populations and the implementation of long term risk management policies. Conclusions Global OPV cessation offers the possibility of large future health and economic benefits compared to continued OPV use. Long-term poliovirus risk management interventions matter (e.g., IPV use duration, outbreak response, containment, continued surveillance, stockpile size and contents, vaccine production site requirements, potential antiviral drugs, and potential safer vaccines) and require careful consideration. Risk management activities can help to ensure a low risk of uncontrolled outbreaks and preserve or further increase the positive net benefits of OPV cessation. Important uncertainties will require more research, including characterizing immunodeficient long-term poliovirus excretor risks, containment risks, and the kinetics of outbreaks and response in an unprecedented world without widespread live poliovirus exposure. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-015-1112-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Mark A Pallansch
- Division of Viral Diseases, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
| | - Stephen L Cochi
- Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
| | - Steven G F Wassilak
- Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
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Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Pallansch MA, Cochi SL, Wassilak SGF, Thompson KM. An economic analysis of poliovirus risk management policy options for 2013-2052. BMC Infect Dis 2015. [PMID: 26404632 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-12015-11112-12878] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/15/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Polio Eradication Initiative plans for coordinated cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) after interrupting all wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission, but many questions remain related to long-term poliovirus risk management policies. METHODS We used an integrated dynamic poliovirus transmission and stochastic risk model to simulate possible futures and estimate the health and economic outcomes of maintaining the 2013 status quo of continued OPV use in most developing countries compared with OPV cessation policies with various assumptions about global inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) adoption. RESULTS Continued OPV use after global WPV eradication leads to continued high costs and/or high cases. Global OPV cessation comes with a high probability of at least one outbreak, which aggressive outbreak response can successfully control in most instances. A low but non-zero probability exists of uncontrolled outbreaks following a poliovirus reintroduction long after OPV cessation in a population in which IPV-alone cannot prevent poliovirus transmission. We estimate global incremental net benefits during 2013-2052 of approximately $16 billion (US$2013) for OPV cessation with at least one IPV routine immunization dose in all countries until 2024 compared to continued OPV use, although significant uncertainty remains associated with the frequency of exportations between populations and the implementation of long term risk management policies. CONCLUSIONS Global OPV cessation offers the possibility of large future health and economic benefits compared to continued OPV use. Long-term poliovirus risk management interventions matter (e.g., IPV use duration, outbreak response, containment, continued surveillance, stockpile size and contents, vaccine production site requirements, potential antiviral drugs, and potential safer vaccines) and require careful consideration. Risk management activities can help to ensure a low risk of uncontrolled outbreaks and preserve or further increase the positive net benefits of OPV cessation. Important uncertainties will require more research, including characterizing immunodeficient long-term poliovirus excretor risks, containment risks, and the kinetics of outbreaks and response in an unprecedented world without widespread live poliovirus exposure.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Mark A Pallansch
- Division of Viral Diseases, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
| | - Stephen L Cochi
- Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
| | - Steven G F Wassilak
- Global Immunization Division, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
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Thompson KM, Duintjer Tebbens RJ. Health and economic consequences of different options for timing the coordinated global cessation of the three oral poliovirus vaccine serotypes. BMC Infect Dis 2015; 15:374. [PMID: 26381878 PMCID: PMC4574397 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-015-1113-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2015] [Accepted: 09/07/2015] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND World leaders remain committed to globally-coordinated oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation following successful eradication of wild polioviruses, but the best timing and strategy for implementation depend on existing and emerging conditions. METHODS Using an existing integrated global poliovirus risk management model, we explore alternatives to the current timing plan of coordinated cessation of each OPV serotype (i.e., OPV1, OPV2, and OPV3 cessation for serotypes 1, 2, and 3, respectively). We assume the current timing plan involves OPV2 cessation in 2016 followed by OPV1 and OPV3 cessation in 2019 and we compare this to alternative timing options, including cessation of all three serotypes in 2018 or 2019, and cessation of both OPV2 and OPV3 in 2017 followed by OPV1 in 2019. RESULTS If Supplemtal Immunization Activity frequency remains sufficiently high through cessation of the last OPV serotype, then all OPV cessation timing options prevent circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks after OPV cessation of any serotype. The various OPV cessation timing options result in relatively modest differences in expected vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis cases and expected total of approximately 10-13 billion polio vaccine doses used. However, the expected amounts of vaccine of different OPV formulations needed changes dramatically with each OPV cessation timing option. Overall health economic impacts remain limited for timing options that only change the OPV formulation but preserve the currently planned year for cessation of the last OPV serotype and the global introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) introduction. Earlier cessation of the last OPV serotype or later global IPV introduction yield approximately $1 billion in incremental net benefits due to saved vaccination costs, although the logistics of implementation of OPV cessation remain uncertain and challenging. CONCLUSIONS All countries should maintain the highest possible levels of population immunity to transmission for each poliovirus serotype prior to the coordinated cessation of the OPV serotype to manage cVDPV risks. If OPV2 cessation gets delayed, then global health leaders should consider other OPV cessation timing options.
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Thompson KM, Duintjer Tebbens RJ. Health and economic consequences of different options for timing the coordinated global cessation of the three oral poliovirus vaccine serotypes. BMC Infect Dis 2015. [PMID: 26381878 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-12015-11113-12877] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/14/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND World leaders remain committed to globally-coordinated oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation following successful eradication of wild polioviruses, but the best timing and strategy for implementation depend on existing and emerging conditions. METHODS Using an existing integrated global poliovirus risk management model, we explore alternatives to the current timing plan of coordinated cessation of each OPV serotype (i.e., OPV1, OPV2, and OPV3 cessation for serotypes 1, 2, and 3, respectively). We assume the current timing plan involves OPV2 cessation in 2016 followed by OPV1 and OPV3 cessation in 2019 and we compare this to alternative timing options, including cessation of all three serotypes in 2018 or 2019, and cessation of both OPV2 and OPV3 in 2017 followed by OPV1 in 2019. RESULTS If Supplemtal Immunization Activity frequency remains sufficiently high through cessation of the last OPV serotype, then all OPV cessation timing options prevent circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks after OPV cessation of any serotype. The various OPV cessation timing options result in relatively modest differences in expected vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis cases and expected total of approximately 10-13 billion polio vaccine doses used. However, the expected amounts of vaccine of different OPV formulations needed changes dramatically with each OPV cessation timing option. Overall health economic impacts remain limited for timing options that only change the OPV formulation but preserve the currently planned year for cessation of the last OPV serotype and the global introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) introduction. Earlier cessation of the last OPV serotype or later global IPV introduction yield approximately $1 billion in incremental net benefits due to saved vaccination costs, although the logistics of implementation of OPV cessation remain uncertain and challenging. CONCLUSIONS All countries should maintain the highest possible levels of population immunity to transmission for each poliovirus serotype prior to the coordinated cessation of the OPV serotype to manage cVDPV risks. If OPV2 cessation gets delayed, then global health leaders should consider other OPV cessation timing options.
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Thompson KM. Good news for billions of children who will receive IPV. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2015; 15:1120-1122. [PMID: 26289957 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(15)00099-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2015] [Accepted: 06/01/2015] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Kimberly M Thompson
- Kid Risk, Orlando, FL 32827, USA; UCF College of Medicine, Orlando, FL 32827, USA.
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Houy N. The probability of undetected wild poliovirus circulation: Can we do better? J Theor Biol 2015; 382:272-8. [PMID: 26165452 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.06.046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2014] [Revised: 06/24/2015] [Accepted: 06/26/2015] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Acute flaccid paralysis surveillance actively detects new paralytic infections caused by wild poliovirus (WPV). However, most WPV infections occur with no symptom. This complicates determining when WPV is eradicated in the context of stopping oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). Previous studies have used the time since the last paralytic infection as a variable of interest to construct this probability. In this study, we show that more freely available information can be used. In particular, we focus on enriching the computation of the probability of WPV silent circulation with the date of occurrence of the last paralytic infection. We show that this information can for at least one set of conditions have crucial importance for an accurate estimation of the risk of false positive when declaring WPV eradicated. We also look at the importance of this information for optimal dynamic vaccination strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicolas Houy
- CNRS, GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne, Ecully F-69130, France.
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71
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Baliga S, Mcmillan T, Sutherland A, Sharan D. The Prevalence and Severity of Joint Problems and Disability in Patients with Poliomyelitis in Urban India. Open Orthop J 2015; 9:204-9. [PMID: 26161158 PMCID: PMC4493628 DOI: 10.2174/1874325001509010204] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2015] [Revised: 04/18/2015] [Accepted: 04/26/2015] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Poliomyelitis is caused by an enterovirus infection of the anterior horn cells in the spinal cord. Up to 40% of survivors recover full muscle strength, however 60–90% are left with varying degrees of residual paralysis, where the patient suffers from cramping myalgia and lower motor neuron pattern weakness. This study aimed to identify and quantify, in terms of prevalence and severity of the types of joint deformities encountered in polio sufferers. It also aimed to assess the disability caused by such problems. Finally we documented the provision and use of mobility aids, orthotics and surgery in the patient group. Impairment was confined to one lower limb, and this is consistent, as the majority of patients were infected in infancy. The study found that pes cavus, scoliosis, flexion deformity of the knee and true lower-limb shortening accounted for over half of the deformities found. The mean Barthel Disability score was 19 and over 80% of patients used at least one aid, usually in the form of a Knee-Ankle-Foot Orthosis (KAFO). Surgery also plays a large in role in the management of polio patients, however necessity needs to be assessed on an individual basis taking into account many aspects of the patient’s life.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Baliga
- University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland
| | - T Mcmillan
- University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland
| | | | - D Sharan
- Mobility India, Bangalore, India
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72
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Sicuri E, Evans DB, Tediosi F. Can Economic Analysis Contribute to Disease Elimination and Eradication? A Systematic Review. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0130603. [PMID: 26070135 PMCID: PMC4466479 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0130603] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2015] [Accepted: 05/21/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Infectious diseases elimination and eradication have become important areas of focus for global health and countries. Due to the substantial up-front investments required to eliminate and eradicate, and the overall shortage of resources for health, economic analysis can inform decision making on whether elimination/eradication makes economic sense and on the costs and benefits of alternative strategies. In order to draw lessons for current and future initiatives, we review the economic literature that has addressed questions related to the elimination and eradication of infectious diseases focusing on: why, how and for whom? METHODS A systematic review was performed by searching economic literature (cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness and economic impact analyses) on elimination/eradication of infectious diseases published from 1980 to 2013 from three large bibliographic databases: one general (SCOPUS), one bio-medical (MEDLINE/PUBMED) and one economic (IDEAS/REPEC). RESULTS A total of 690 non-duplicate papers were identified from which only 43 met the inclusion criteria. In addition, only one paper focusing on equity issues, the "for whom?" question, was found. The literature relating to "why?" is the largest, much of it focusing on how much it would cost. A more limited literature estimates the benefits in terms of impact on economic growth with mixed results. The question of how to eradicate or eliminate was informed by an economic literature highlighting that there will be opportunities for individuals and countries to free-ride and that forms of incentives and/or disincentives will be needed. This requires government involvement at country level and global coordination. While there is little doubt that eliminating infectious diseases will eventually improve equity, it will only happen if active steps to promote equity are followed on the path to elimination and eradication. CONCLUSION The largest part of the literature has focused on costs and economic benefits of elimination/eradication. To a lesser extent, challenges associated with achieving elimination/eradication and ensuring equity have also been explored. Although elimination and eradication are, for some diseases, good investments compared with control, countries' incentives to eliminate do not always align with the global good and the most efficient elimination strategies may not prioritize the poorest populations. For any infectious disease, policy-makers will need to consider realigning contrasting incentives between the individual countries and the global community and to assure that the process towards elimination/eradication considers equity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elisa Sicuri
- ISGlobal, Barcelona Ctr. Int. Health Res. (CRESIB), Hospital Clínic—Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - David B. Evans
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Fabrizio Tediosi
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003 Basel, Switzerland
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73
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Constenla D. Assessing the economic benefits of vaccines based on the health investment life course framework: A review of a broader approach to evaluate malaria vaccination. Vaccine 2015; 33:1527-40. [DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.01.059] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2014] [Revised: 12/23/2014] [Accepted: 01/20/2015] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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Patel M, Zipursky S, Orenstein W, Garon J, Zaffran M. Polio endgame: the global introduction of inactivated polio vaccine. Expert Rev Vaccines 2015; 14:749-62. [PMID: 25597843 DOI: 10.1586/14760584.2015.1001750] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
In 2013, the World Health Assembly endorsed a plan that calls for the ultimate withdrawal of oral polio vaccines (OPV) from all immunization programs globally. The withdrawal would begin in a phased manner with removal of the type 2 component of OPV in 2016 through a global switch from trivalent OPV to bivalent OPV (containing only types 1 and 3). To mitigate risks associated with immunity gaps after OPV type 2 withdrawal, the WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts has recommended that all 126 OPV-only using countries introduce at least one dose of inactivated polio vaccine into routine immunization programs by end-2015, before the trivalent OPV-bivalent OPV switch. The introduction of inactivated polio vaccine would reduce risks of reintroduction of type 2 poliovirus by providing some level of seroprotection, facilitating interruption of transmission if outbreaks occur, and accelerating eradication by boosting immunity to types 1 and 3 polioviruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Manish Patel
- Task Force for Global Health, 325 Swanton Way, Atlanta, GA 30330, USA
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Abstract
The American Academy of Pediatrics strongly supports the Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. This plan was endorsed in November 2012 by the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization of the World Health Organization and published by the World Health Organization in April 2013. As a key component of the plan, it will be necessary to stop oral polio vaccine (OPV) use globally to achieve eradication, because the attenuated viruses in the vaccine rarely can cause polio. The plan includes procedures for elimination of vaccine-associated paralytic polio and circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs). cVDPVs can proliferate when vaccine viruses are transmitted among susceptible people, resulting in mutations conferring both the neurovirulence and transmissibility characteristics of wild polioviruses. Although there are 3 different types of wild poliovirus strains, the polio eradication effort has already resulted in the global elimination of type 2 poliovirus for more than a decade. Type 3 poliovirus may be eliminated because the wild type 3 poliovirus was last detected in 2012. Thus, of the 3 wild types, only wild type 1 poliovirus is still known to be circulating and causing disease. OPV remains the key vaccine for eradicating wild polioviruses in polio-infected countries because it induces high levels of systemic immunity to prevent paralysis and intestinal immunity to reduce transmission. However, OPV is a rare cause of paralysis and the substantial decrease in wild-type disease has resulted in estimates that the vaccine is causing more polio-related paralysis annually in recent years than the wild virus. The new endgame strategic plan calls for stepwise removal of the type 2 poliovirus component from trivalent oral vaccines, because type 2 wild poliovirus appears to have been eradicated (since 1999) and yet is the main cause of cVDPV outbreaks and approximately 40% of vaccine-associated paralytic polio cases. The Endgame and Strategic Plan will be accomplished by shifting from trivalent OPV to bivalent OPV (containing types 1 and 3 poliovirus only). It will be necessary to introduce trivalent inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) into routine immunization programs in all countries using OPV to provide population immunity to type 2 before the switch from trivalent OPV to bivalent OPV. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative hopes to achieve global eradication of polio by 2018 with this strategy, after which all OPV use will be stopped. Challenges expected for adding IPV into routine immunization schedules include higher cost of IPV compared with OPV, cold-chain capacity limits, more complex administration of vaccine because IPV requires injections as opposed to oral administration, and inferior intestinal immunity conferred by IPV. The goal of this report is to help pediatricians understand the change in strategy and outline ways that pediatricians can help global polio eradication efforts, including advocating for the resources needed to accomplish polio eradication and for incorporation of IPV into routine immunization programs in all countries.
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Jasem JA, Marof K, Nawar A, Khalaf Y, Al-Hamdani F, Ali S, Kalil AC, Islam KMM. An epidemiological analysis of acute flaccid paralysis and its surveillance system in Iraq, 1997-2011. BMC Infect Dis 2014; 14:448. [PMID: 25141887 PMCID: PMC4159501 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-14-448] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2013] [Accepted: 08/04/2014] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Acute flaccid paralysis surveillance (AFP) is an essential strategy of the WHO's Polio Eradication Initiative. This is the first study conducted to estimate the incidence, etiology, distribution, and surveillance performance of AFP in Iraq. METHODS Surveillance data about the AFP cases under the age of 15 years reported from Iraq during January 1997 to December 2011 were depended in the current study. RESULTS A total of 4974 cases of AFP were reported from Iraq during the study period, with an annual incidence of 2.5/100,000 population. Guillain-Barré syndrome represented more than half of the reported cases (N = 2611, 52.5%), followed by traumatic neuritis (N = 715, 14.4%), and other CNS infections (N = 292, 5.9%). Poliomyelitis accounted for 166 (3.3%) of cases, the last reported case being in January 2000. Surveillance performance showed that all, but two, indicators were below the required WHO recommended levels. CONCLUSIONS AFP surveillance remains the gold standard method for poliomyelitis detection. It witnessed dramatic changes over the last two decades. This has raised people's and clinicians' awareness to the importance of promptness in notifying suspected cases and timely transportation of stool specimens to the National Poliovirus Laboratory in Baghdad, or alternatively having more than one laboratory for poliovirus detection in the country, all of which are very useful measures to increase the surveillance performance in the country.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jagar A Jasem
- School of Medicine, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Duhok, Duhok, Kurdistan Region, Iraq.
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Whittaker MA, Dean AJ, Chancellor A. Advocating for malaria elimination - learning from the successes of other infectious disease elimination programmes. Malar J 2014; 13:221. [PMID: 24902848 PMCID: PMC4057589 DOI: 10.1186/1475-2875-13-221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2014] [Accepted: 06/01/2014] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Malaria elimination is back on the agenda, but it remains challenging for countries to make the transition from effective control to elimination. Many other infectious diseases have been targeted by globally-coordinated elimination advocacy campaigns, and advocacy has been considered an essential component of the success of other disease elimination programmes. What can the malaria community learn from these successes? A review of infectious disease elimination programmes to identify successful elements of advocacy for disease elimination was undertaken. Key elements are: (i) a global elimination plan, supported by international health bodies; (ii) thorough costings and tools to support the business case; (iii) an approach that is positioned within a development framework; (iv) core elimination advocacy messages; (v) provision of advocacy tools for partners (vi) extensive and effective community engagement; and (vii) strong partnerships. These features provide insights into 'what works' in global elimination advocacy. Advocacy is a powerful tool to support the long-term political and financial commitment necessary for malaria elimination. The global malaria community needs to work together, to ensure that the early steps towards the end goal of malaria elimination are taken.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maxine A Whittaker
- School of Population Health, The University of Queensland, Herston, Australia
| | - Angela J Dean
- School of Population Health, The University of Queensland, Herston, Australia
| | - Arna Chancellor
- School of Population Health, The University of Queensland, Herston, Australia
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Enabling implementation of the Global Vaccine Action Plan: developing investment cases to achieve targets for measles and rubella prevention. Vaccine 2014; 31 Suppl 2:B149-56. [PMID: 23598476 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.11.091] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2012] [Revised: 11/08/2012] [Accepted: 11/30/2012] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
Global prevention and control of infectious diseases requires significant investment of financial and human resources and well-functioning leadership and management structures. The reality of competing demands for limited resources leads to trade-offs and questions about the relative value of specific investments. Developing investment cases can help to provide stakeholders with information about the benefits, costs, and risks associated with available options, including examination of social, political, governance, and ethical issues. We describe the process of developing investment cases for globally coordinated management of action plans for measles and rubella as tools for enabling the implementation of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP). We focus on considerations related to the timing of efforts to achieve measles and rubella goals independently and within the context of ongoing polio eradication efforts, other immunization priorities, and other efforts to control communicable diseases or child survival initiatives. Our analysis suggests that the interactions between the availability and sustainability of financial support, sufficient supplies of vaccines, capacity of vaccine delivery systems, and commitments at all levels will impact the feasibility and timing of achieving national, regional, and global goals. The timing of investments and achievements will determine the net financial and health benefits obtained. The methodology, framing, and assumptions used to characterize net benefits and uncertainties in the investment cases will impact estimates and perceptions about the value of prevention achieved overall by the GVAP. We suggest that appropriately valuing the benefits of investments of measles and rubella prevention will require the use of integrated dynamic disease, economic, risk, and decision analytic models in combination with consideration of qualitative factors, and that synthesizing information in the form of investment cases may help stakeholders manage expectations as they chart the course ahead and navigate the decade of vaccines.
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79
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Surviving polio in a post-polio world. Soc Sci Med 2014; 107:171-8. [DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2014.02.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2013] [Revised: 02/10/2014] [Accepted: 02/13/2014] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
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Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Kalkowska DA, Wassilak SGF, Pallansch MA, Cochi SL, Thompson KM. The potential impact of expanding target age groups for polio immunization campaigns. BMC Infect Dis 2014; 14:45. [PMID: 24472313 PMCID: PMC3918103 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-14-45] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2013] [Accepted: 01/20/2014] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global efforts to eradicate wild polioviruses (WPVs) continue to face challenges due to uninterrupted endemic WPV transmission in three countries and importation-related outbreaks into previously polio-free countries. We explore the potential role of including older children and adults in supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) to more rapidly increase population immunity and prevent or stop transmission. METHODS We use a differential equation-based dynamic poliovirus transmission model to analyze the epidemiological impact and vaccine resource implications of expanding target age groups in SIAs. We explore the use of older age groups in SIAs for three situations: alternative responses to the 2010 outbreak in Tajikistan, retrospective examination of elimination in two high-risk states in northern India, and prospective and retrospective strategies to accelerate elimination in endemic northwestern Nigeria. Our model recognizes the ability of individuals with waned mucosal immunity (i.e., immunity from a historical live poliovirus infection) to become re-infected and contribute to transmission to a limited extent. RESULTS SIAs involving expanded age groups reduce overall caseloads, decrease transmission, and generally lead to a small reduction in the time to achieve WPV elimination. Analysis of preventive expanded age group SIAs in Tajikistan or prior to type-specific surges in incidence in high-risk areas of India and Nigeria showed the greatest potential benefits of expanded age groups. Analysis of expanded age group SIAs in outbreak situations or to accelerate the interruption of endemic transmission showed relatively less benefit, largely due to the circulation of WPV reaching individuals sooner or more effectively than the SIAs. The India and Nigeria results depend strongly on how well SIAs involving expanded age groups reach relatively isolated subpopulations that sustain clusters of susceptible children, which we assume play a key role in persistent endemic WPV transmission in these areas. CONCLUSIONS This study suggests the need to carefully consider the epidemiological situation in the context of decisions to use expanded age group SIAs. Subpopulations of susceptible individuals may independently sustain transmission, which will reduce the overall benefits associated with using expanded age group SIAs to increase population immunity to a sufficiently high level to stop transmission and reduce the incidence of paralytic cases.
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81
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Thompson KM. The role of risk analysis in polio eradication: modeling possibilities, probabilities and outcomes to inform choices. Expert Rev Vaccines 2014; 11:5-7. [DOI: 10.1586/erv.11.163] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
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Rath B, Ali M, Elemuwa C, Maurer W, Bouder F, Mworozi E, Diedrich S, Khamesipour A, Chitwood I, Kochhar S. Prioritizing polio. Expert Rev Vaccines 2014; 11:1389-92. [DOI: 10.1586/erv.12.128] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
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83
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Enhancing the work of the Department of Health and Human Services national vaccine program in global immunization: recommendations of the National Vaccine Advisory Committee: approved by the National Vaccine Advisory Committee on September 12, 2013. Public Health Rep 2014; 129 Suppl 3:12-85. [PMID: 25100887 PMCID: PMC4121882 DOI: 10.1177/00333549141295s305] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
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Abstract
The global health effort to eradicate poliomyelitis (polio) has encountered a number of unforeseen and unpredictable challenges. This article provides a timely review of progress made toward eradication, including the polio vaccines in use, and explores the reasons for delays in eradication target dates. It provides an overview of some of the remaining barriers to eradication and looks toward overcoming these through the Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gemma Lien
- Public Health England, Wellington House, 133-155 Waterloo Road, London, SE1 8UG, UK,
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Freuling CM, Hampson K, Selhorst T, Schröder R, Meslin FX, Mettenleiter TC, Müller T. The elimination of fox rabies from Europe: determinants of success and lessons for the future. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2013; 368:20120142. [PMID: 23798690 PMCID: PMC3720040 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0142] [Citation(s) in RCA: 131] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite perceived challenges to controlling an infectious disease in wildlife, oral rabies vaccination (ORV) of foxes has proved a remarkably successful tool and a prime example of a sophisticated strategy to eliminate disease from wildlife reservoirs. During the past three decades, the implementation of ORV programmes in 24 countries has led to the elimination of fox-mediated rabies from vast areas of Western and Central Europe. In this study, we evaluated the efficiency of 22 European ORV programmes between 1978 and 2010. During this period an area of almost 1.9 million km² was targeted at least once with vaccine baits, with control taking between 5 and 26 years depending upon the country. We examined factors influencing effort required both to control and eliminate fox rabies as well as cost-related issues of these programmes. The proportion of land area ever affected by rabies and an index capturing the size and overlap of successive ORV campaigns were identified as factors having statistically significant effects on the number of campaigns required to both control and eliminate rabies. Repeat comprehensive campaigns that are wholly overlapping much more rapidly eliminate infection and are less costly in the long term. Disproportionally greater effort is required in the final phase of an ORV programme, with a median of 11 additional campaigns required to eliminate disease once incidence has been reduced by 90 per cent. If successive ORV campaigns span the entire affected area, rabies will be eliminated more rapidly than if campaigns are implemented in a less comprehensive manner, therefore reducing ORV expenditure in the longer term. These findings should help improve the planning and implementation of ORV programmes, and facilitate future decision-making by veterinary authorities and policy-makers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Conrad M Freuling
- Institute of Molecular Biology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, WHO Collaborating Centre for Rabies Surveillance and Research, 17493 Greifswald-Isle of Riems, Germany
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86
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Barrett S. Economic considerations for the eradication endgame. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2013; 368:20120149. [PMID: 23798697 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0149] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
An infectious disease will be eradicated only if it is eliminated everywhere, including in the hardest-to-reach, most vaccine-wary communities. If eradication is successful, it promises a dividend in the form of avoided infections and vaccinations. However, success is never certain unless and until eradication is achieved, and claiming the dividend means bearing the possibly great risk of re-emergence. Economic analysis of eradication evaluates these risks and rewards relative to the alternative of 'optimal control', and also exposes the incentives for achieving and capitalizing on eradication. Eradication is a 'game', because some countries may be willing to eliminate the disease within their borders only if assured that all others will eliminate the disease within their borders. International financing is also a game, because each country would rather free ride than contribute. Finally, for diseases such as polio, capitalizing on eradication is a game, for should any country continue to vaccinate in the post-eradication era using the live-attenuated polio vaccine, the countries that stop vaccinating will be exposed to the risk of vaccine-derived polioviruses. In the framework developed in this paper, eradication is a seductive goal, its attainment fraught with peril.
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Affiliation(s)
- Scott Barrett
- School of International and Public Affairs, The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.
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87
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Thompson KM, Pallansch MA, Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Wassilak SG, Kim JH, Cochi SL. Preeradication vaccine policy options for poliovirus infection and disease control. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2013; 33:516-43. [PMID: 23461599 PMCID: PMC7941951 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
With the circulation of wild poliovirus (WPV) types 1 and 3 continuing more than a decade after the original goal of eradicating all three types of WPVs by 2000, policymakers consider many immunization options as they strive to stop transmission in the remaining endemic and outbreak areas and prevent reintroductions of live polioviruses into nonendemic areas. While polio vaccination choices may appear simple, our analysis of current options shows remarkable complexity. We offer important context for current and future polio vaccine decisions and policy analyses by developing decision trees that clearly identify potential options currently used by countries as they evaluate national polio vaccine choices. Based on a comprehensive review of the literature we (1) identify the current vaccination options that national health leaders consider for polio vaccination, (2) characterize current practices and factors that appear to influence national and international choices, and (3) assess the evidence of vaccine effectiveness considering sources of variability between countries and uncertainties associated with limitations of the data. With low numbers of cases occurring globally, the management of polio risks might seem like a relatively low priority, but stopping live poliovirus circulation requires making proactive and intentional choices to manage population immunity in the remaining endemic areas and to prevent reestablishment in nonendemic areas. Our analysis shows remarkable variability in the current national polio vaccine product choices and schedules, with combination vaccine options containing inactivated poliovirus vaccine and different formulations of oral poliovirus vaccine making choices increasingly difficult for national health leaders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kimberly M Thompson
- Kid Risk, Inc., , 10524 Moss Park Rd., Ste. 204-364, Orlando, FL 32832, USA.
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88
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Thompson KM. Modeling poliovirus risks and the legacy of polio eradication. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2013; 33:505-15. [PMID: 23550939 PMCID: PMC7896538 DOI: 10.1111/risa.12030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
This introduction to the special issue on modeling poliovirus risks provides context about historical efforts to manage polioviruses and reviews the insights from models developed to support risk management and policy development. Following an overview of the contents of the special issue, the introduction explores the road ahead and offers perspective on the legacy of polio eradication.
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89
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Maher D. The human qualities needed to complete the global eradication of polio. Bull World Health Organ 2013; 91:283-9. [PMID: 23599552 PMCID: PMC3629453 DOI: 10.2471/blt.12.111831] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2012] [Revised: 12/03/2012] [Accepted: 12/06/2012] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Although the 99% decrease seen in global polio incidence between 1988 and 2000 represented remarkable progress towards polio eradication, tackling the last 1% of polio has proved tantalizingly difficult. Pockets of endemic transmission currently persist both on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan and in northern Nigeria. These pockets have permitted the reinfection of countries that were previously polio-free. Global strategic plans for polio eradication set out the activities, resources and financing needed to overcome the managerial, technical and security challenges faced by those tasked with the interruption of poliovirus transmission. However, polio eradication also depends on the less tangible but equally important human qualities of energy, realism, articulacy, determination, imagination, collaboration, adaptability, tactical awareness, innovation, openness and nimbleness (the initial letters of which give the acronym "ERADICATION"). By paying attention to these human qualities, the stakeholders involved may be more likely to achieve global polio eradication.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dermot Maher
- The Wellcome Trust, 215 Euston Road, London, NW1 2BE, England.
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90
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91
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92
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Ozawa S, Mirelman A, Stack ML, Walker DG, Levine OS. Cost-effectiveness and economic benefits of vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review. Vaccine 2012; 31:96-108. [PMID: 23142307 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.10.103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 147] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2012] [Revised: 10/19/2012] [Accepted: 10/26/2012] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Public health interventions that prevent mortality and morbidity have greatly increased over the past decade. Immunization is one of these preventive interventions, with a potential to bring economic benefits beyond just health benefits. While vaccines are considered to be a cost-effective public health intervention, implementation has become increasingly challenging. As vaccine costs rise and competing priorities increase, economic evidence is likely to play an increasingly important role in vaccination decisions. METHODS To assist policy decisions today and potential investments in the future, we provide a systematic review of the literature on the cost-effectiveness and economic benefits of vaccines in low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2010. The review identified 108 relevant articles from 51 countries spanning 23 vaccines from three major electronic databases (Pubmed, Embase and Econlit). RESULTS Among the 44 articles that reported costs per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted, vaccines cost less than or equal to $100 per DALY averted in 23 articles (52%). Vaccines cost less than $500 per DALY averted in 34 articles (77%), and less than $1000 per DALY averted in 38 articles (86%) in one of the scenarios. 24 articles (22%) examined broad level economic benefits of vaccines such as greater future wage-earning capacity and cost savings from averting disease outbreaks. 60 articles (56%) gathered data from a primary source. There were little data on long-term and societal economic benefits such as morbidity-related productivity gains, averting catastrophic health expenditures, growth in gross domestic product (GDP), and economic implications of demographic changes resulting from vaccination. CONCLUSIONS This review documents the available evidence and shows that vaccination in low- and middle-income countries brings important economic benefits. The cost-effectiveness studies reviewed suggest to policy makers that vaccines are an efficient investment. This review further highlights key gaps in the available literature that would benefit from additional research, especially in the area of evaluating the broader economic benefits of vaccination in the developing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sachiko Ozawa
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, United States.
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93
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Deogaonkar R, Hutubessy R, van der Putten I, Evers S, Jit M. Systematic review of studies evaluating the broader economic impact of vaccination in low and middle income countries. BMC Public Health 2012; 12:878. [PMID: 23072714 PMCID: PMC3532196 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-12-878] [Citation(s) in RCA: 68] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2012] [Accepted: 10/09/2012] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Most health economic evaluations of childhood vaccination only capture the health and short-term economic benefits. Measuring broader, long-term effects of vaccination on productivity and externalities could provide a more complete picture of the value of vaccines. Method MEDLINE, EconLit and NHS-EED databases were searched for articles published between January 1990 and July 2011, which captured broader economic benefits of vaccines in low and middle income countries. Studies were included if they captured at least one of the following categories on broader economic impact: outcome-related productivity gains, behaviour-related productivity gains, ecological externalities, equity gains, financial sustainability gains or macroeconomic benefits. Results Twenty-six relevant studies were found, including observational studies, economic models and contingent valuation studies. Of the identified broader impacts, outcome-related productivity gains and ecological externalities were most commonly accounted for. No studies captured behaviour-related productivity gains or macroeconomic effects. There was some evidence to show that vaccinated children 8–14 years of age benefit from increased cognitive ability. Productivity loss due to morbidity and mortality was generally measured using the human capital approach. When included, herd immunity effects were functions of coverage rates or based on reduction in disease outcomes. External effects of vaccines were observed in terms of equitable health outcomes and contribution towards synergistic and financially sustainable healthcare programs. Conclusion Despite substantial variation in the methods of measurement and outcomes used, the inclusion of broader economic impact was found to improve the attractiveness of vaccination. Further research is needed on how different tools and techniques can be used in combination to capture the broader impact of vaccination in a way that is consistent with other health economic evaluations. In addition, more country level evidence is needed from low and middle income countries to justify future investments in vaccines and immunization programs. Finally, the proposed broader economic impact framework may contribute towards better communication of the economic arguments surrounding vaccine uptake, leading to investments in immunization by stakeholders outside of the traditional health care sector such as ministries of finance and national treasuries.
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94
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Thompson KM, Tebbens RJD. Current polio global eradication and control policy options: perspectives from modeling and prerequisites for oral poliovirus vaccine cessation. Expert Rev Vaccines 2012; 11:449-59. [PMID: 22551030 DOI: 10.1586/erv.11.195] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
As the Global Polio Eradication Initiative progresses toward the eradication of wild polioviruses, national and global health leaders must still actively consider options for managing poliovirus risks, including risks associated with using oral poliovirus vaccine. Oral poliovirus vaccine continues to represent a highly effective tool, but its use causes noticeable, rare cases of vaccine-associated paralytic polio and with low coverage it can evolve to become circulating vaccine-derived polioviruse that causes outbreaks. National leaders face a wide range of options, but their choices depend in part on global policies. This article explores the current set of global options for poliovirus eradication or control, discusses constraints and prerequisites for their implementation and offers some insights based on dynamic modeling to inform discussions and frame future economic analyses.
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95
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Kalkowska DA, Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Thompson KM. The probability of undetected wild poliovirus circulation after apparent global interruption of transmission. Am J Epidemiol 2012; 175:936-49. [PMID: 22459121 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwr399] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
The Global Polio Laboratory Network maintains active surveillance for circulating live polioviruses by obtaining and testing stool samples from patients with acute flaccid paralysis. However, most poliovirus infections occur with no symptoms, and questions remain about the probability of undetected wild poliovirus (WPV) circulation after the apparent interruption of WPV transmission in different populations. In the context of making decisions about the timing of oral poliovirus vaccine cessation following global eradication of WPV, policy-makers need an understanding of this probability as a function of time. Prior modeling of the probability of undetected circulation relied on relatively simple models and assumptions, which limits extrapolation to current conditions. In this analysis, the authors revisit the topic and highlight important considerations for policy-makers related to the impact of initial conditions and seasonality and emphasize the need to focus on appropriate characterization of conditions in the last likely reservoirs of the virus. The authors conclude that the probability of undetected WPV circulation may vary significantly for different poliovirus serotypes, places, and conditions, which suggests that achieving the same level of confidence about the true interruption of WPV transmission will require different periods of time for different situations.
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96
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Wimmer E, Paul AV. Synthetic poliovirus and other designer viruses: what have we learned from them? Annu Rev Microbiol 2012; 65:583-609. [PMID: 21756105 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-micro-090110-102957] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Owing to known genome sequences, modern strategies of DNA synthesis have made it possible to recreate in principle all known viruses independent of natural templates. We describe the first synthesis of a virus (poliovirus) in 2002 that was accomplished outside living cells. We comment on the reaction of laypeople and scientists to the work, which shaped the response to de novo syntheses of other viruses. We discuss those viruses that have been synthesized since 2002, among them viruses whose precise genome sequence had to be established by painstakingly stitching together pieces of sequence information, and viruses involved in zoonosis. Synthesizing viral genomes provides a powerful tool for studying gene function and the pathogenic potential of these organisms. It also allows modification of viral genomes to an extent hitherto unthinkable. Recoding of poliovirus and influenza virus to develop new vaccine candidates and refactoring the phage T7 DNA genome are discussed as examples.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eckard Wimmer
- Department of Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York 11790, USA.
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97
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Abstract
Increased international support for both research into new vaccines and their deployment in developing countries has been evident over the past decade. In particular, the GAVI Alliance has had a major impact in increasing uptake of the six common infant vaccines as well as those against hepatitis B and yellow fever. It further aims to introduce pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccines in the near future and several others, including those against human papillomavirus, meningococcal disease, rubella and typhoid not long after that. In addition, there is advanced research into vaccines against malaria, HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. By 2030, we may have about 20 vaccines that need to be used in the developing world. Finding the requisite funds to achieve this will pose a major problem. A second and urgent question is how to complete the job of global polio eradication. The new strategic plan calls for completion by 2013, but both pre-eradication and post-eradication challenges remain. Vaccines will eventually become available beyond the field of infectious diseases. Much interesting work is being done in both autoimmunity and cancer. Cutting across disease groupings, there are issues in methods of delivery and new adjuvant formulations.
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Affiliation(s)
- G J V Nossal
- Department of Pathology, The University of Melbourne, Australia.
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98
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Dowdle WR, Cochi SL. The principles and feasibility of disease eradication. Vaccine 2011; 29 Suppl 4:D70-3. [PMID: 22188936 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.04.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2010] [Revised: 02/16/2011] [Accepted: 04/01/2011] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
Smallpox eradication framed disease eradication as a monumental public health achievement in global health equity. The principles of disease eradication are encapsulated in a constellation of four conditions: biologic feasibility, adequate public health infrastructure, sufficient funding, and sustained political/societal will. Where the constellation exists, national eradication occurs in the absence of a global initiative. Assessing the feasibility of global eradication requires determining the constellation gaps for nations of all regions and identifying the human and financial resources to fill the gaps. The economic and humanitarian benefits of eradication have strong appeal. Global polio and guinea worm efforts are underway. Regional eradication of measles and rubella has been achieved in the Americas and other diseases have been proposed. Global decisions on disease eradication should include careful consideration of opportunity costs and prioritization of limited global health resources, with the objective of providing the most appropriate, cost-beneficial, and equitable outcome of disease control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Walter R Dowdle
- The Task Force for Global Health, 325 Swanton Way, Decatur, GA 30030, USA.
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99
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Aylward B, Tangermann R. The global polio eradication initiative: Lessons learned and prospects for success. Vaccine 2011; 29 Suppl 4:D80-5. [DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.10.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2011] [Revised: 09/18/2011] [Accepted: 10/03/2011] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
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100
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Attitudes and perceptions of private pediatricians regarding polio immunization in India. Vaccine 2011; 29:8317-22. [DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.08.099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2011] [Revised: 07/15/2011] [Accepted: 08/19/2011] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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