Association between microfilarial load and excess mortality in onchocerciasis: an epidemiological study

A research agenda for helminth diseases of humans: modelling for control and elimination

Mathematical modelling of helminth infections has the potential to inform policy and guide research for the control and elimination of human helminthiases. However, this potential, unlike in other parasitic and infectious diseases, has yet to be realised. To place contemporary efforts in a historical context, a summary of the development of mathematical models for helminthiases is presented. These efforts are discussed according to the role that models can play in furthering our understanding of parasite population biology and transmission dynamics, and the effect on such dynamics of control interventions, as well as in enabling estimation of directly unobservable parameters, exploration of transmission breakpoints, and investigation of evolutionary outcomes of control. The Disease Reference Group on Helminth Infections (DRG4), established in 2009 by the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), was given the mandate to review helminthiases research and identify research priorities and gaps. A research and development agenda for helminthiasis modelling is proposed based on identified gaps that need to be addressed for models to become useful decision tools that can support research and control operations effectively. This agenda includes the use of models to estimate the impact of large-scale interventions on infection incidence; the design of sampling protocols for the monitoring and evaluation of integrated control programmes; the modelling of co-infections; the investigation of the dynamical relationship between infection and morbidity indicators; the improvement of analytical methods for the quantification of anthelmintic efficacy and resistance; the determination of programme endpoints; the linking of dynamical helminth models with helminth geostatistical mapping; and the investigation of the impact of climate change on human helminthiases. It is concluded that modelling should be embedded in helminth research, and in the planning, evaluation, and surveillance of interventions from the outset. Modellers should be essential members of interdisciplinary teams, propitiating a continuous dialogue with end users and stakeholders to reflect public health needs in the terrain, discuss the scope and limitations of models, and update biological assumptions and model outputs regularly. It is highlighted that to reach these goals, a collaborative framework must be developed for the collation, annotation, and sharing of databases from large-scale anthelmintic control programmes, and that helminth modellers should join efforts to tackle key questions in helminth epidemiology and control through the sharing of such databases, and by using diverse, yet complementary, modelling approaches.

Density-dependent mortality of the human host in onchocerciasis: relationships between microfilarial load and excess mortality

Background

The parasite Onchocerca volvulus has, until recently, been regarded as the cause of a chronic yet non-fatal condition. Recent analyses, however, have indicated that in addition to blindness, the parasite can also be directly associated with human mortality. Such analyses also suggested that the relationship between microfilarial load and excess mortality might be non-linear. Determining the functional form of such relationship would contribute to quantify the population impact of mass microfilaricidal treatment.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Data from the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) collected from 1974 through 2001 were used to determine functional relationships between microfilarial load and excess mortality of the human host. The goodness-of-fit of three candidate functional forms (a (log-) linear model and two saturating functions) were explored and a saturating (log-) sigmoid function was deemed to be statistically the best fit. The excess mortality associated with microfilarial load was also found to be greater in younger hosts. The attributable mortality risk due to onchocerciasis was estimated to be 5.9%.

Conclusions/Significance

Incorporation of this non-linear functional relationship between microfilarial load and excess mortality into mathematical models for the transmission and control of onchocerciasis will have important implications for our understanding of the population biology of O. volvulus, its impact on human populations, the global burden of disease due to onchocerciasis, and the projected benefits of control programmes in both human and economic terms.

Human onchocerciasis (River Blindness) is a parasitic disease leading to visual impairment including blindness. Blindness may lead to premature death, but infection with the parasite itself (Onchocerca volvulus) may also cause excess mortality in sighted individuals. The excess risk of mortality may not be directly (linearly) proportional to the intensity of infection (a measure of how many parasites an individual harbours). We analyze cohort data from the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa, collected between 1974 and 2001, by fitting a suite of quantitative models (including a ‘null’ model of no relationship between infection intensity and mortality, a (log-) linear function, and two plateauing curves), and choosing the one that is the most statistically adequate. The risk of human mortality initially increases with parasite density but saturates at high densities (following an S-shape curve), and such risk is greater in younger individuals for a given infection intensity. Our results have important repercussions for programmes aiming to control onchocerciasis (in terms of how the benefits of the programme are calculated), for measuring the burden of disease and mortality caused by the infection, and for a better understanding of the processes that govern the density of parasite populations among human hosts.

Assessment and monitoring of onchocerciasis in Latin America

Onchocerciasis has historically been one of the leading causes of infectious blindness worldwide. It is endemic to tropical regions both in Africa and Latin America and in the Yemen. In Latin America, it is found in 13 foci located in 6 different countries. The epidemiologically most important focus of onchocerciasis in the Americas is located in a region spanning the border between Guatemala and Mexico. However, the Amazonian focus straddling the border of Venezuela and Brazil is larger in overall area because the Yanomami populations are scattered over a very large geographical region. Onchocerciasis is caused by infection with the filarial parasite Onchocerca volvulus. The infection is spread through the bites of an insect vector, black flies of the genus Simulium. In Africa, the major vectors are members of the S. damnosum complex, while numerous species serve as vectors of the parasite in Latin America. Latin America has had a long history of attempts to control onchocerciasis, stretching back almost 100 years. The earliest programmes used a strategy of surgical removal of the adult parasites from affected individuals. However, because many of the adult parasites lodge in undetectable and inaccessible areas of the body, the overall effect of this strategy on the prevalence of infection was relatively minor. In 1988, a new drug, ivermectin, was introduced that effectively killed the larval stage (microfilaria) of the parasite in infected humans. As the microfilaria is both the stage that is transmitted by the vector fly and the cause of most of the pathologies associated with the infection, ivermectin opened up a new strategy for the control of onchocerciasis. Concurrent with the use of ivermectin for the treatment of onchocerciasis, a number of sensitive new diagnostic tools were developed (both serological and nucleic acid based) that provided the efficiency, sensitivity and specificity necessary to monitor the decline and eventual elimination of onchocerciasis as a result of successful control. As a result of these advances, a strategy for the elimination of onchocerciasis was developed, based upon mass distribution of ivermectin to afflicted communities for periods lasting long enough to ensure that the parasite population was placed on the road to local elimination. This strategy has been applied for the past decade to the foci in Latin America by a programme overseen by the Onchocerciasis Elimination Program for the Americas (OEPA). The efforts spearheaded by OEPA have been very successful, eliminating ocular disease caused by O. volvulus, and eliminating and interrupting transmission of the parasite in 8 of the 13 foci in the region. As onchocerciasis approaches elimination in Latin America, several questions still need to be addressed. These include defining an acceptable upper limit for transmission in areas in which transmission is thought to have been suppressed (e.g. what is the maximum value for the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for transmission rates in areas where transmission is no longer detectable), how to develop strategies for conducting surveillance for recrudescence of infection in areas in which transmission is thought to be interrupted and how to address the problem in areas where the mass distribution of ivermectin seems to be unable to completely eliminate the infection.

Filariasis in Africa--treatment challenges and prospects

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) and onchocerciasis are parasitic nematode infections that are responsible for a major disease burden in the African continent. Disease symptoms are induced by the immune reactions of the host, with lymphoedema and hydrocoele in LF, and dermatitis and ocular inflammation in onchocerciasis. Wuchereria bancrofti and Onchocerca volvulus, the species causing LF and onchocerciasis in Africa, live in mutual symbiosis with Wolbachia endobacteria, which cause a major part of the inflammation leading to symptoms and are antibiotic targets for treatment. The standard microfilaricidal drugs ivermectin and albendazole are used in mass drug administration programmes, with the aim of interrupting transmission, with a consequent reduction in the burden of infection and, in some situations, leading to regional elimination of LF and onchocerciasis. Co-endemicity of Loa loa with W. bancrofti or O. volvulus is an impediment to mass drug administration with ivermectin and albendazole, owing to the risk of encephalopathy being encountered upon administration of ivermectin. Research into new treatment options is exploring several improved delivery strategies for the classic drugs or new antibiotic treatment regimens for anti-wolbachial chemotherapy.

Epilepsy in onchocerciasis endemic areas: systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based surveys

Objective

We sought to evaluate the relationship between onchocerciasis prevalence and that of epilepsy using available data collected at community level.

Design

We conducted a systematic review and meta-regression of available data.

Data Sources

Electronic and paper records on subject area ever produced up to February 2008.

Review Methods

We searched for population-based studies reporting on the prevalence of epilepsy in communities for which onchocerciasis prevalence was available or could be estimated. Two authors independently assessed eligibility and study quality and extracted data. The estimation of point prevalence of onchocerciasis was standardized across studies using appropriate correction factors. Variation in epilepsy prevalence was then analyzed as a function of onchocerciasis endemicity using random-effect logistic models.

Results

Eight studies from west (Benin and Nigeria), central (Cameroon and Central African Republic) and east Africa (Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi) met the criteria for inclusion and analysis. Ninety-one communities with a total population of 79,270 individuals screened for epilepsy were included in the analysis. The prevalence of epilepsy ranged from 0 to 8.7% whereas that of onchocerciasis ranged from 5.2 to 100%. Variation in epilepsy prevalence was consistent with a logistic function of onchocerciasis prevalence, with epilepsy prevalence being increased, on average, by 0.4% for each 10% increase in onchocerciasis prevalence.

Conclusion

These results give further evidence that onchocerciasis is associated with epilepsy and that the disease burden of onchocerciasis might have to be re-estimated by taking into account this relationship.

Epilepsy is particularly common in tropical areas. One main reason is that many endemic infections have neurological consequences. In addition, the medical, social and demographic burden of epilepsy remains substantial in these countries where it is often seen as a contagious condition and where the aetiology is often undetermined. For several decades, field researchers had reported some overlapping between the geographical distributions of epilepsy and onchocerciasis, a parasitic disease caused by the filarial worm Onchocerca volvulus which afflicts some 40 million persons worldwide. Here, we conducted a statistical analysis of all the data available on the relationship between the two conditions to determine whether the proportion of people suffering from epilepsy in a community could be related to the frequency of onchocerciasis. The combined results of the eight studies carried out in west, central and east Africa indicate a close epidemiological association between the two diseases. Should a causative relationship be demonstrated, onchocerciasis, which is known as “river blindness” because of its most serious sequela and the distribution of its vectors, could thus also be called “river epilepsy”. More research is needed to determine the mechanisms explaining this association and to assess the burden of onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy.

Rates of microfilarial production by Onchocerca volvulus are not cumulatively reduced by multiple ivermectin treatments

Regular distribution of ivermectin reduces onchocerciasis transmission and morbidity by killing, within humans, the microfilarial stage of the parasite (microfilaricidal effect). In addition, ivermectin exerts a so-called embryostatic effect by which microfilarial production by the adult female worm becomes suppressed during a number of weeks after treatment. To assess the overall effect of ivermectin on onchocerciasis transmission and evaluate the likelihood of local elimination of the infection it is important to estimate the magnitude of the anti-fertility effect over the course of a treatment programme. Estimates of the effect of repeated drug treatments on the production of microfilariae by adult Onchocerca volvulus were obtained by developing a model that was fitted to data collected from three hyperendemic communities in Guatemala, where eligible residents received ivermectin twice per year for two and a half years. The data consist of microfilarial load measurements in the skin, collected just before each six-monthly treatment during the programme. The model that is developed describes the dynamics of an individual host's expected microfilarial load over the 30-month study period. We adopt a Bayesian approach and use Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) techniques to fit the model to the data. Combining estimates from the three villages, average microfilarial production in the first six months post-treatment was reduced by ~64% of its pre-treatment level, regardless of values chosen for the pre-ivermectin fertility rate within plausible ranges. Increased adult worm death rate after treatment (to mimic removal of macrofilariae via nodulectomy during the programme) resulted in a smaller estimated magnitude of the embryostatic effect (rate of microfilarial production was reduced by ~58% of pre-ivermectin value). After subsequent treatments, the rate of microfilarial production appeared to be similarly decreased. The data and analyses therefore do not support the hypothesis of a cumulative effect of multiple ivermectin treatments on microfilarial production by female worms.

Wolbachia endobacteria depletion by doxycycline as antifilarial therapy has macrofilaricidal activity in onchocerciasis: a randomized placebo-controlled study

In a randomized, placebo-controlled trial in Ghana, 67 onchocerciasis patients received 200-mg/day doxycycline for 4-6 weeks, followed by ivermectin (IVM) after 6 months. After 6-27 months, efficacy was evaluated by onchocercoma histology, PCR and microfilariae determination. Administration of doxycycline resulted in endobacteria depletion and female worm sterilization. The 6-week treatment was macrofilaricidal, with >60% of the female worms found dead, despite the presence of new, Wolbachia-containing worms acquired after the administration of doxycycline. Doxycycline may be developed as second-line drug for onchocerciasis, to be administered in areas without transmission, in foci with IVM resistance and in areas with Loa co-infections.

Impact of long-term treatment of onchocerciasis with ivermectin in Ecuador: potential for elimination of infection

BACKGROUND

Onchocerciasis is a leading cause of blindness worldwide, hence elimination of the infection is an important health priority. Community-based treatment programs with ivermectin form the basis of control programs for the disease in Latin America. The long-term administration of ivermectin could eliminate Onchocerca volvulus infection from endemic areas in Latin America.

METHODS

A strategy of annual to twice-annual treatments with ivermectin has been used for onchocerciasis in endemic communities in Ecuador for up to 14 years. The impact of ivermectin treatment on ocular morbidity, and O. volvulus infection and transmission was monitored in seven sentinel communities.

RESULTS

Over the period 1990-2003, high rates of treatment coverage of the eligible population were maintained in endemic communities (mean 85.2% per treatment round). Ivermectin reduced the prevalence of anterior segment disease of the eye to 0% in sentinel communities and had a major impact on the prevalence and transmission of infection, with possible elimination of infection in some foci.

CONCLUSION

The distribution of ivermectin in endemic communities in Ecuador might have eliminated ocular morbidity and significant progress has been made towards elimination of the infection. A strategy of more frequent treatments with ivermectin may be required in communities where the infection persists to achieve the objective of elimination of the infection from Ecuador. The elimination of the infection from an endemic country in Latin America would be a major public health achievement and could stimulate the implementation of elimination strategies in other endemic countries.

Recent updates on onchocerciasis: diagnosis and treatment

Recent progress in onchocerciasis research has led to improved understanding of the immunopathology of Onchocerca volvulus, as well as improvements in diagnosis and treatment of this morbid disease. This article reviews the recent literature, highlighting breakthroughs in sensitive means of antigen testing and an unusual new approach to therapy that targets an endosymbiotic bacterium required for filarial worm fecundity.

River blindness: a success story under threat?

The success of the Onchocerciasis Control Programme is undeniable and exemplary, say the authors, but it is too early to claim victory against river blindness.

Projected benefits from integrating NTD programs in sub-Saharan Africa

The integration of preventive chemotherapy programs (PCPs) targeting multiple neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) with similar strategic approaches offers opportunities for enhanced cost-effectiveness. To estimate the potential cost savings and health outcomes of integrated programs, the data available for five NTDs (lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, intestinal helminthiasis, schistosomiasis and trachoma) can be used to define eligible target populations, the probable overlap of at-risk populations, and the cost per person treated in stand-alone and integrated programs. If all targets for 2006 in sub-Saharan Africa are met, then savings of 26-47% can be projected from such integration (a cost of US dollar 58-81 million versus dollar 110 million for stand-alone PCPs). These first estimates can be refined as empirical data become available from integrated PCPs in the future.

Assessment of microfilarial loads in the skin of onchocerciasis patients after treatment with different regimens of doxycycline plus ivermectin

Background

Infection with the filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus can lead to severe dermatitis, visual impairment, and ultimately blindness. Since the currently used drug, ivermectin does not have macrofilaricidal or strong permanent sterilising effects on the adult worm, more effective drugs are needed to complement the use of ivermectin alone. Wolbachia endosymbiotic bacteria in filariae have emerged as a new target for treatment with antibiotics which can lead to long -term sterilization of the adult female filariae.

Methods

In the Central Region of Ghana, 60 patients were recruited, allocated into four groups and treated with 200 mg doxycycline per day for 2 weeks, 4 weeks, 6 weeks respectively. Untreated patients served as controls. Some of the treated patients and the untreated controls were given 150 μg/kg ivermectin 8 months after the start of doxycycline treatment.

Results

A follow up study 18 months post treatment showed that when using doxycycline alone there was a significant reduction of microfilarial (mf) loads in patients treated for either 4 or 6 weeks. However, there was no significant difference between the untreated controls and those given the 2 weeks regimen. Although no significant difference was demonstrated between the 4 and 6 weeks regimens, there was a trend observed, in that, microfilarial reduction appeared to have been greater following the 6 weeks regimen. Twelve months after ivermectin (i.e. 20 months after doxycycline) treatment, 8 out of 11 ivermectin-alone treated patients were mf-positive. In contrast, 1 out of the 7 patients treated for 4 weeks with doxycycline and none of the 4 patients treated for 6 weeks doxycycline (who were available for re-examination) were mf-positive after the combined treatment of doxycycline plus ivermectin treatment.

Conclusion

Treatment of onchocerciasis with doxycycline for 4 weeks is effective. Nonetheless, mf reduction appeared to be greater in the 6 weeks regimen. It is recommended that until further studies are carried out i.e. 4 weeks treatment with doxycycline is proven equivalent to the 6 weeks, selected groups of onchocerciasis patients should be treated for 6 weeks with doxycycline. As discussed earlier, this treatment should be accompanied by two doses of ivermectin.

Human infection patterns and heterogeneous exposure in river blindness

Here we analyze patterns of human infection with Onchocerca volvulus (the cause of river blindness) in different continents and ecologies. In contrast with some geohelminths and schistosome parasites whose worm burdens typically exhibit a humped pattern with host age, patterns of O. volvulus infection vary markedly with locality. To test the hypothesis that such differences are partly due to heterogeneity in exposure to vector bites, we develop an age- and sex-structured model for intensity of infection, with parasite regulation within humans and vectors. The model is fitted to microfilarial data from savannah villages of northern Cameroon, coffee fincas of central Guatemala, and forest-dwelling communities of southern Venezuela that were recorded before introducing ivermectin treatment. Estimates of transmission and infection loads are compared with entomological and epidemiological field data. Host age- and sex-heterogeneous exposure largely explains locale-specific infection patterns in onchocerciasis (whereas acquired protective immunity has been invoked for other helminth infections). The basic reproductive number, R0, ranges from 5 to 8, which is slightly above estimates for other helminth parasites but well below previously presented values.

Public–private partnerships in blindness prevention: reaching beyond the eye

The control of river blindness (onchocerciasis) has been one of the major public health achievements of recent decades. Initially, vector control was used to stop transmission of the parasite Onchocerca volvulus by blackflies (Simulium) but the introduction of ivermectin (Mectizan) as a means of morbidity control enabled new strategies of distribution to be developed based on community directed treatment. The donation of Mectizan by Merck & Co. Inc. for onchocerciasis control in 1987 'as long as needed' was a public health landmark to be followed by a donation from GlaxoSmithKline of albendazole in 1997 for lymphatic filariasis to which Merck also responded by agreeing to extend their donation to include the coadministration of Mectizan and albendazole. Both the drugs, however, have wider impacts than those specific to filarial parasites and are effective against a range of intestinal parasites, whilst ivermectin has an important effect on ectoparasites. The wider benefits of the annual public health intervention-collateral benefits--therefore include deworming, improved nutritional status, increased growth, improved school performance and attendance, and improved haemoglobin status as a result of the impact of albendazole on hookworm, a major cause of anaemia. More recently, studies suggest that worm-free children have a significantly reduced frequency of malaria specific episodes of fever and Ascaris-infected children have a two-fold higher frequency of cerebral or severe malaria than those without Ascaris. These findings suggest that programmes based on annual interventions to control river blindness and lymphatic filariasis can contribute disproportionately more to a range of public health problems than has been hitherto recognized, thereby assisting in attaining the millennium development goal targets.

Density dependence and overdispersion in the transmission of helminth parasites

The influence of density-dependent processes on the transmission of parasitic helminths is determined by both the severity of the regulatory constraints and the degree of parasite overdispersion among the host population. We investigate how overdispersed parasite distributions among humans influence transmission levels in both directly- and indirectly-transmitted nematodes (Ascaris lumbricoides and Onchocerca volvulus). While past work has assumed, for simplicity, that density dependence acts on the average worm load, here we model density-dependence as acting on individual parasite burdens before averaging across hosts. A composite parameter, which we call the effective transmission contribution, is devised to measure the number of transmission stages contributed by a given worm burden after incorporating over-dispersion in adult worm mating probabilities and other density-dependent mechanisms. Results indicate that the more overdispersed the parasite population, the greater the effect of density dependence upon its transmission dynamics. Strong regulation and parasite overdispersion make the relationship between mean worm burden and its effective contribution to transmission highly non-linear. Consequently, lowering the intensity of infection in a host population using chemotherapy may produce only a small decline in transmission (relative to its initial endemic level). Our analysis indicates that when parasite burden is low, intermediate levels of parasite clustering maximize transmission. Implications are discussed in relation to existing control programmes and the spread of anthelmintic resistance.