Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

Art therapy masks reflect emotional changes in military personnel with PTSS

Among disabling post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) are irritability, aggressive behavior, distressing memories and general impaired cognition and negative mood. Art therapy interventions, including mask-making, can potentially alleviate these symptoms. We tested the hypothesis that art conveys emotions and predicted that blinded viewers would be able to perceive changes in theoretically derived emotional profiles expressed in art made by military personnel with PTSS from the onset to the end of therapy. Five service members and veterans exhibiting PTSS were enrolled in an 8-session art therapy protocol, during which they artistically transformed papier-mâché masks at the beginning and end of the protocol. We found that blinded viewers without knowledge of the masks' creation stage (onset or end of therapy) read initial masks as conveying more negative emotions (e.g., angry, upset, and challenged) and later masks as conveying more positive emotions (calm and pleasure). Based on the assessments from the blinded evaluators, we infer the emotional transition experienced by the participants was expressed in the masks. In an exploratory arm of the study, we also found that viewers were better able to empathize with the negative emotions experienced by participants with PTSS when asked to explicitly take their perspective.

Health Canada advisory impacts on the prevalence of oral codeine use in the Pediatric Canadian population: comparative study across provinces

Health Canada (HC) has, since 2013, issued safety alerts restricting the use of codeine-containing drugs among breastfeeding women and children/adolescents under 18 years of age. These products are linked to breathing problems among ultra-rapid CYP2D6 metabolizers and early use of opioid can lead to future opioid misuse. Using a multi-province population-based cohort study, we estimate the impact of federal safety alerts on annual rates of codeine use in the Canadian pediatric population. We analyzed data from 8,156,948 children/adolescents in five Canadian provinces between 1996 and 2021, using a common protocol. Children/adolescents were categorized as: ≤ 12 years (children) or > 12 years (adolescents). We defined codeine exposure by ≥ 1 prescription filled for codeine alone or combined with other medications. For both age categories, we obtained province-specific codeine prescription filling rates per calendar year by dividing the number of children/adolescents with ≥ 1 codeine prescription filled by the number of person-time. Annual rates of codeine use per 1000 persons vary by province from 3.0 (Quebec) to 10.1 (Manitoba) in children, and from 5.5 to 51.3 in adolescents. After the 2013 HC advisory, exposure decreased in all provinces (adjusted level change from - 0.6 to - 18.4%) in children and from - 2.1 to - 17.9% in adolescents after the 2016 advisory. Annual rates declined over time in all provinces, following HC safety alerts specific to each of the two age categories.

The lymphatic filariasis treatment study landscape: A systematic review of study characteristics and the case for an individual participant data platform

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted by the World Health Organization for elimination as a public health problem (EPHP). Since 2000, more than 9 billion treatments of antifilarial medicines have been distributed through mass drug administration (MDA) programmes in 72 endemic countries and 17 countries have reached EPHP. Yet in 2021, nearly 900 million people still required MDA with combinations of albendazole, diethylcarbamazine and/or ivermectin. Despite the reliance on these drugs, there remain gaps in understanding of variation in responses to treatment. As demonstrated for other infectious diseases, some urgent questions could be addressed by conducting individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses. Here, we present the results of a systematic literature review to estimate the abundance of IPD on pre- and post-intervention indicators of infection and/or morbidity and assess the feasibility of building a global data repository.

METHODOLOGY

We searched literature published between 1st January 2000 and 5th May 2023 in 15 databases to identify prospective studies assessing LF treatment and/or morbidity management and disease prevention (MMDP) approaches. We considered only studies where individual participants were diagnosed with LF infection or disease and were followed up on at least one occasion after receiving an intervention/treatment.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We identified 138 eligible studies from 23 countries, having followed up an estimated 29,842 participants after intervention. We estimate 14,800 (49.6%) IPD on pre- and post-intervention infection indicators including microfilaraemia, circulating filarial antigen and/or ultrasound indicators measured before and after intervention using 8 drugs administered in various combinations. We identified 33 studies on MMDP, estimating 6,102 (20.4%) IPD on pre- and post-intervention clinical morbidity indicators only. A further 8,940 IPD cover a mixture of infection and morbidity outcomes measured with other diagnostics, from participants followed for adverse event outcomes only or recruited after initial intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

The LF treatment study landscape is heterogeneous, but the abundance of studies and related IPD suggest that establishing a global data repository to facilitate IPD meta-analyses would be feasible and useful to address unresolved questions on variation in treatment outcomes across geographies, demographics and in underrepresented groups. New studies using more standardized approaches should be initiated to address the scarcity and inconsistency of data on morbidity management.

Modelling flock heterogeneity in the transmission of peste des petits ruminants virus and its impact on the effectiveness of vaccination for eradication

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an acute infectious disease of small ruminants targeted for global eradication by 2030. The Global Strategy for Control and Eradication (GSCE) recommends mass vaccination targeting 70% coverage of small ruminant populations in PPR-endemic regions. These small ruminant populations are diverse with heterogeneous mixing patterns that may influence PPR virus (PPRV) transmission dynamics. This paper evaluates the impact of heterogeneous mixing on (i) PPRV transmission and (ii) the likelihood of different vaccination strategies achieving PPRV elimination, including the GSCE recommended strategy. We develop models simulating heterogeneous transmission between hosts, including a metapopulation model of PPRV transmission between villages in lowland Ethiopia fitted to serological data. Our results demonstrate that although heterogeneous mixing of small ruminant populations increases the instability of PPRV transmission-increasing the chance of fadeout in the absence of intervention-a vaccination coverage of 70% may be insufficient to achieve elimination if high-risk populations are not targeted. Transmission may persist despite very high vaccination coverage (>90% small ruminants) if vaccination is biased towards more accessible but lower-risk populations such as sedentary small ruminant flocks. These results highlight the importance of characterizing small ruminant mobility patterns and identifying high-risk populations for vaccination and support a move towards targeted, risk-based vaccination programmes in the next phase of the PPRV eradication programme. Our modelling approach also illustrates a general framework for incorporating heterogeneous mixing patterns into models of directly transmitted infectious diseases where detailed contact data are limited. This study improves understanding of PPRV transmission and elimination in heterogeneous small ruminant populations and should be used to inform and optimize the design of PPRV vaccination programmes.

Electronic stripe patterns near the fermi level of tetragonal Fe(Se,S)

FeSe1-xSx remains one of the most enigmatic systems of Fe-based superconductors. While much is known about the orthorhombic parent compound, FeSe, the tetragonal samples, FeSe1-xSx with x > 0.17, remain relatively unexplored. Here, we provide an in-depth investigation of the electronic states of tetragonal FeSe0.81S0.19, using scanning tunneling microscopy and spectroscopy (STM/S) measurements, supported by angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) and theoretical modeling. We analyze modulations of the local density of states (LDOS) near and away from Fe vacancy defects separately and identify quasiparticle interference (QPI) signals originating from multiple regions of the Brillouin zone, including the bands at the zone corners. We also observe that QPI signals coexist with a much stronger LDOS modulation for states near the Fermi level whose period is independent of energy. Our measurements further reveal that this strong pattern appears in the STS measurements as short range stripe patterns that are locally two-fold symmetric. Since these stripe patterns coexist with four-fold symmetric QPI around Fe-vacancies, the origin of their local two-fold symmetry must be distinct from that of nematic states in orthorhombic samples. We explore several aspects related to the stripes, such as the role of S and Fe-vacancy defects, and whether they can be explained by QPI. We consider the possibility that the observed stripe patterns may represent incipient charge order correlations, similar to those observed in the cuprates.

Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?

Epidemiological and modelling studies suggest that elimination of Onchocerca volvulus transmission (EoT) throughout Africa may not be achievable with annual mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin alone, particularly in areas of high endemicity and vector density. Single-dose Phase II and III clinical trials demonstrated moxidectin's superiority over ivermectin for prolonged clearance of O. volvulus microfilariae. We used the stochastic, individual-based EPIONCHO-IBM model to compare the probabilities of reaching EoT between ivermectin and moxidectin MDA for a range of endemicity levels (30 to 70% baseline microfilarial prevalence), treatment frequencies (annual and biannual) and therapeutic coverage/adherence values (65 and 80% of total population, with, respectively, 5 and 1% of systematic non-adherence). EPIONCHO-IBM's projections indicate that biannual (six-monthly) moxidectin MDA can reduce by half the number of years necessary to achieve EoT in mesoendemic areas and might be the only strategy that can achieve EoT in hyperendemic areas. Data needed to improve modelling projections include (i) the effect of repeated annual and biannual moxidectin treatment; (ii) inter- and intra-individual variation in response to successive treatments with moxidectin or ivermectin; (iii) the effect of moxidectin and ivermectin treatment on L3 development into adult worms; and (iv) patterns of adherence to moxidectin and ivermectin MDA. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Reaching the World Health Organization elimination targets for schistosomiasis: the importance of a One Health perspective

The past three years has seen the launch of a new World Health Organization (WHO) neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) roadmap, together with revised control and elimination guidelines. Across all, there is now a clear emphasis on the need to incorporate a One Health approach, recognizing the critical links between human and animal health and the environment. Schistosomiasis, caused by Schistosoma spp. trematodes, is a NTD of global medical and veterinary importance, with over 220 million people and untold millions of livestock currently infected. Its burden remains extremely high in certain regions, particularly within sub-Saharan Africa, despite over two decades of mass preventive chemotherapy (mass drug administration), predominantly to school-aged children. In Africa, in contrast to Asia, any zoonotic component of schistosomiasis transmission and its implications for disease control has, until recently, been largely ignored. Here, we review recent epidemiological, clinical, molecular, and modelling work across both Asia and Africa. We outline the evolutionary history and transmission dynamics of Schistosoma species, and emphasize the emerging risk raised by both wildlife reservoirs and viable hybridization between human and animal schistosomes. To achieve the 2030 WHO roadmap elimination targets, a truly multi-disciplinary One Health perspective must be implemented. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy.

METHODS

For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU.

FINDINGS

For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) at 60-69 years, and 1·39 (1·29-1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier.

INTERPRETATION

Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3-4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

The effect of recreational cannabis legalization and commercialization on substance use, mental health, and injury: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effect of recreational cannabis legalization (RCL) and/or recreational cannabis commercialization (RCC) on emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and deaths due to substance use, injury, and mental health among those aged 11 years and older.

METHODS

A systematic review of six electronic databases up to February 1, 2023. Original, peer-reviewed articles with interrupted time series or before and after designs were included. Four independent reviewers screened articles and assessed risk of bias. Outcomes with 'critical' risk of bias were excluded. Protocol registered on PROSPERO (# CRD42021265183).

RESULTS

After screening and risk of bias assessment, 29 studies were included which examined ED visits or hospitalizations for cannabis use or alcohol (N = 10), opioid mortality (N = 3), motor vehicle fatalities or injury (N = 11), and intentional injury/mental health (N = 5). Rates or number of cannabis-related hospitalizations increased after RCL in Canada and the USA. Immediate increases in rates of cannabis-related ED visits were found after both RCL and RCC in Canada. Rates of traffic fatalities increased after RCL and RCC in certain jurisdictions in the USA.

CONCLUSIONS

RCL was associated with increased rates of cannabis-related hospitalizations. RCL and/or RCC was associated with increased rates of cannabis-related ED visits, consistently shown across sex and age groups. The effect on fatal motor vehicle incidents was mixed, with observed increases found after RCL and/or RCC. The effect of RCL or RCC on opioids, alcohol, intentional injury, and mental health is not clear. These results inform population health initiatives and international jurisdictions considering RCL implementation.

Sensitivity and specificity of human point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (POC-CCA) test in African livestock for rapid diagnosis of schistosomiasis: A Bayesian latent class analysis

Schistosomiasis is a major neglected tropical disease (NTD) affecting both humans and animals. The morbidity and mortality inflicted upon livestock in the Afrotropical region has been largely overlooked, in part due to a lack of validated sensitive and specific tests, which do not require specialist training or equipment to deliver and interpret. As stressed within the recent WHO NTD 2021-2030 Roadmap and Revised Guideline for schistosomiasis, inexpensive, non-invasive, and sensitive diagnostic tests for livestock-use would also facilitate both prevalence mapping and appropriate intervention programmes. The aim of this study was to assess the sensitivity and specificity of the currently available point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen test (POC-CCA), designed for Schistosoma mansoni detection in humans, for the detection of intestinal livestock schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma bovis and Schistosoma curassoni. POC-CCA, together with the circulating anodic antigen (CAA) test, miracidial hatching technique (MHT) and organ and mesentery inspection (for animals from abattoirs only), were applied to samples collected from 195 animals (56 cattle and 139 small ruminants (goats and sheep) from abattoirs and living populations) from Senegal. POC-CCA sensitivity was greater in the S. curassoni-dominated Barkedji livestock, both for cattle (median 81%; 95% credible interval (CrI): 55%-98%) and small ruminants (49%; CrI: 29%-87%), than in S. bovis-dominated Richard Toll ruminants (cattle: 62%; CrI: 41%-84%; small ruminants: 12%, CrI: 1%-37%). Overall, sensitivity was greater in cattle than in small ruminants. Small ruminants POC-CCA specificity was similar in both locations (91%; CrI: 77%-99%), whilst cattle POC-CCA specificity could not be assessed owing to the low number of uninfected cattle surveyed. Our results indicate that, whilst the current POC-CCA does represent a potential diagnostic tool for cattle and possibly for predominantly S. curassoni-infected livestock, future work is needed to develop parasite- and/or livestock-specific affordable and field-applicable diagnostic tests to enable determination of the true extent of livestock schistosomiasis.

Investigating anionic surfactant phase diagrams using dissipative particle dynamics: development of a transferable model

Dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) provides a powerful coarse-grained simulation technique for the study of a wide range of soft matter systems. Here, we investigate the transferability of DPD models to the prediction of anionic surfactant phase diagrams, taking advantage of fast parameter sweeps to optimise the choice of DPD parameters for these systems. Parameters are developed which provide a good representation of the phase diagrams of SDS (sodium dodecyl sulfate) and three different isomeric forms of LAS (linear alkylbenzene sulfonates) across an extensive concentration range. A high degree of transferability is seen, with parameters readily transferable to other systems, such as AES (alkyl ether sulfates). Excellent agreement is obtained with experimentally measured quantities, such as the lamellar layer spacing. Isosurfaces are produced from the surfactant head group, from which the second moment M of the isosurface normal distribution is calculated for different phase structures. Lyotropic liquid crystalline phases are characterised by a combination of the eigenvalues of M, radial distribution functions, and visual inspections.

Infectious disease modelling to inform policy

With modelling becoming increasingly important in helping to inform decisions about animal diseases, it is essential that the process be optimised to gain the maximum benefit for the decision-maker. Here, the authors set out ten steps that can improve this process for all concerned. Four steps describe initialisation to ensure that the question, answer and timescale are defined; two steps describe the modelling process and quality assurance; and four steps describe the reporting stage. The authors believe that this greater emphasis at the beginning and end of a modelling project will increase the relevance of the work and understanding of the results, and thus contribute towards better decision-making.

Modelling the control of bovine brucellosis in India

Brucellosis imposes substantial impacts on livestock production and public health worldwide. A stochastic, age-structured model incorporating herd demographics was developed describing within- and between-herd transmission of Brucella abortus in dairy cattle herds. The model was fitted to data from a cross-sectional study conducted in Punjab State of India and used to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies under consideration. Based on model results, stakeholder acceptance and constraints regarding vaccine supply, vaccination of replacement calves in large farms should be prioritized. Test and removal applied at early stages of the control programme where seroprevalence is high would not constitute an effective or acceptable use of resources because significant numbers of animals would be 'removed' (culled or not used for breeding) based on false positive results. To achieve sustained reductions in brucellosis, policymakers must commit to maintaining vaccination in the long term, which may eventually reduce frequency of infection in the livestock reservoir to a low enough level for elimination to be a realistic objective. This work provides key strategic insights into the control of brucellosis in India, which has the largest cattle population globally, and a general modelling framework for evaluating control strategies in endemic settings.

Modeling the effectiveness of One Health interventions against the zoonotic hookworm Ancylostoma ceylanicum

Hookworm disease is a major global public health concern, annually affecting 500-700 million of the world's poorest people. The World Health Organization is targeting the elimination of hookworm as a public health problem by 2030 using a strategy of mass drug administration (MDA) to at-risk human populations. However, in Southeast Asia and the Pacific the zoonotic hookworm species, Ancylostoma ceylanicum, is endemic in dogs and commonly infects people. This presents a potential impediment to the effectiveness of MDA that targets only humans. Here, we develop a novel multi-host (dog and human) transmission model of A. ceylanicum and compare the effectiveness of human-only and "One Health" (human plus dog) MDA strategies under a range of eco-epidemiological assumptions. We show that One Health interventions-targeting both dogs and humans-could suppress prevalence in humans to ≤ 1% by the end of 2030, even with only modest coverage (25-50%) of the animal reservoir. With increasing coverage, One Health interventions may even interrupt transmission. We discuss key unresolved questions on the eco-epidemiology of A. ceylanicum, the challenges of delivering MDA to animal reservoirs, and the growing importance of One Health interventions to human public health.

Is the incidence of congenital toxoplasmosis declining?

Prenatal infection with the protozoan parasite Toxoplasma gondii can cause congenital toxoplasmosis (CT), an often fatal or lifelong-disabling condition. Several studies of human populations have reported temporal decreases in seroprevalence, suggesting declining CT incidence. However, the consistency of this trend among diverse populations remains unclear, as does its implication for prenatal screening programmes, the major intervention against CT. Using temporally resolved data on the seroprevalence of T. gondii in various countries, we discuss how the parasite's changing epidemiology may affect trends in CT incidence in varying and counterintuitive ways. We argue that parasite stage-specific serology could be helpful for understanding underlying causes of secular changes in seroprevalence. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of updating cost-effectiveness estimates of screening programmes, accounting for neuropsychiatric sequelae.

Potential drivers for schistosomiasis persistence: Population genetic analyses from a cluster-randomized urogenital schistosomiasis elimination trial across the Zanzibar islands

The World Health Organization's revised NTD Roadmap and the newly launched Guidelines target elimination of schistosomiasis as a public health problem in all endemic areas by 2030. Key to meeting this goal is elucidating how selective pressures imposed by interventions shape parasite populations. Our aim was to identify any differential impact of a unique cluster-randomized tri-armed elimination intervention (biannual mass drug administration (MDA) applied alone or in association with either mollusciciding (snail control) or behavioural change interventions) across two Zanzibarian islands (Pemba and Unguja) on the population genetic composition of Schistosoma haematobium over space and time. Fifteen microsatellite loci were used to analyse individual miracidia collected from infected individuals across islands and intervention arms at the start (2012 baseline: 1,522 miracidia from 176 children; 303 from 43 adults; age-range 6-75, mean 12.7 years) and at year 5 (2016: 1,486 miracidia from 146 children; 214 from 25 adults; age-range 9-46, mean 12.4 years). Measures of genetic diversity included allelic richness (Ar), Expected (He) and Observed heterozygosity (Ho), inbreeding coefficient (FST), parentage analysis, estimated worm burden, worm fecundity, and genetic sub-structuring. There was little evidence of differential selective pressures on population genetic diversity, inbreeding or estimated worm burdens by treatment arm, with only the MDA+snail control arm within Unguja showing trends towards reduced diversity and altered inbreeding over time. The greatest differences overall, both in terms of parasite fecundity and genetic sub-structuring, were observed between the islands, consistent with Pemba's persistently higher mean infection intensities compared to neighbouring Unguja, and within islands in terms of infection hotspots (across three definitions). These findings highlight the important contribution of population genetic analyses to elucidate extensive genetic diversity and biological drivers, including potential gene-environmental factors, that may override short term selective pressures imposed by differential disease control strategies. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov ISRCTN48837681.

Wikipedia on the CompTox Chemicals Dashboard: Connecting Resources to Enrich Public Chemical Data

The online encyclopedia Wikipedia aggregates a large amount of data on chemistry, encompassing well over 20,000 individual Wikipedia pages and serves the general public as well as the chemistry community. Many other chemical databases and services utilize these data, and previous projects have focused on methods to index, search, and extract it for review and use. We present a comprehensive effort that combines bulk automated data extraction over tens of thousands of pages, semiautomated data extraction over hundreds of pages, and fine-grained manual extraction of individual lists and compounds of interest. We then correlate these data with the existing contents of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Distributed Structure-Searchable Toxicity (DSSTox) database. This was performed with a number of intentions including ensuring as complete a mapping as possible between the Dashboard and Wikipedia so that relevant snippets of the article are loaded for the user to review. Conflicts between Dashboard content and Wikipedia in terms of, for example, identifiers such as chemical registry numbers, names, and InChIs and structure-based collisions such as SMILES were identified and used as the basis of curation of both DSSTox and Wikipedia. This work also allowed us to evaluate available data for sets of chemicals of interest to the Agency, such as synthetic cannabinoids, and expand the content in DSSTox as appropriate. This work also led to improved bidirectional linkage of the detailed chemistry and usage information from Wikipedia with expert-curated structure and identifier data from DSSTox for a new list of nearly 20,000 chemicals. All of this work ultimately enhances the data mappings that allow for the display of the introduction of the Wikipedia article in the community-accessible web-based EPA Comptox Chemicals Dashboard, enhancing the user experience for the thousands of users per day accessing the resource.

Modelling livestock test-and-treat: A novel One Health strategy to control schistosomiasis and mitigate drug resistance

Schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease, is a widespread chronic helminthiasis reported in 78 countries, predominantly those within sub-Saharan Africa, as well as Latin America, Asia, and most recently, even Europe. Species of the causative blood fluke infect not only humans but also animals, and hybrids between previously assumed human-specific and animal-specific schistosomes are being increasingly reported. Existing control programs across Africa focus on humans and rely heavily on mass drug administration of praziquantel, the sole drug available against schistosomiasis. Praziquantel is safe and highly efficacious but could become ineffective if resistance emerges. To reach the revised World Health Organization goal of elimination of schistosomiasis as a public health problem, and interruption of transmission within selected regions, by 2030, new consideration of the role of animal reservoirs in human transmission in general, and whether to also treat livestock with praziquantel in particular, has been raised. However, whilst there are no dedicated control programs targeting animals outside of Asia, there are emerging reports of the use and misuse of praziquantel in livestock across Africa. Therefore, to effectively treat livestock in Africa and to help mitigate against the potential evolution of praziquantel resistance, structured control strategies are required. Here, using a transmission modelling approach, we evaluate the potential effectiveness of a theoretical test-and-treat (TnT) strategy to control bovine schistosomiasis using a currently available point-of-care diagnostic test (developed for human use) to detect circulating cathodic antigen (POC-CCA). We show that implementing TnT at herd-level from 2022 to 2030 could be highly effective in suppressing infection in cattle and even, in lower prevalence settings, reaching nominal ‘elimination’ targets. We highlight the importance of enhancing the specificity of POC-CCA for use in livestock to avoid unnecessary treatments and discuss the outstanding challenges associated with implementing TnT as part of a holistic One Health approach to tackling human and animal schistosomiasis.

Global variation in force-of-infection trends for human Taenia solium taeniasis/cysticercosis

Infection by Taenia solium poses a major burden across endemic countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) 2021–2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases roadmap has proposed that 30% of endemic countries achieve intensified T. solium control in hyperendemic areas by 2030. Understanding geographical variation in age-prevalence profiles and force-of-infection (FoI) estimates will inform intervention designs across settings. Human taeniasis (HTT) and human cysticercosis (HCC) age-prevalence data from 16 studies in Latin America, Africa, and Asia were extracted through a systematic review. Catalytic models, incorporating diagnostic performance uncertainty, were fitted to the data using Bayesian methods, to estimate rates of antibody (Ab)-seroconversion, infection acquisition and Ab-seroreversion or infection loss. HCC FoI and Ab-seroreversion rates were also estimated across 23 departments in Colombia from 28,100 individuals. Across settings, there was extensive variation in all-ages seroprevalence. Evidence for Ab-seroreversion or infection loss was found in most settings for both HTT and HCC and for HCC Ab-seroreversion in Colombia. The average duration until humans became Ab-seropositive/infected decreased as all-age (sero)prevalence increased. There was no clear relationship between the average duration humans remain Ab-seropositive and all-age seroprevalence. Marked geographical heterogeneity in T. solium transmission rates indicate the need for setting-specific intervention strategies to achieve the WHO goals.

Search for Subsolar-Mass Binaries in the First Half of Advanced LIGO's and Advanced Virgo's Third Observing Run

We report on a search for compact binary coalescences where at least one binary component has a mass between 0.2  M_{⊙} and 1.0  M_{⊙} in Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo data collected between 1 April 2019 1500 UTC and 1 October 2019 1500 UTC. We extend our previous analyses in two main ways: we include data from the Virgo detector and we allow for more unequal mass systems, with mass ratio q≥0.1. We do not report any gravitational-wave candidates. The most significant trigger has a false alarm rate of 0.14  yr^{-1}. This implies an upper limit on the merger rate of subsolar binaries in the range [220-24200]  Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}, depending on the chirp mass of the binary. We use this upper limit to derive astrophysical constraints on two phenomenological models that could produce subsolar-mass compact objects. One is an isotropic distribution of equal-mass primordial black holes. Using this model, we find that the fraction of dark matter in primordial black holes in the mass range 0.2  M_{⊙}<m_{PBH}<1.0  M_{⊙} is f_{PBH}≡Ω_{PBH}/Ω_{DM}≲6%. This improves existing constraints on primordial black hole abundance by a factor of ∼3. The other is a dissipative dark matter model, in which fermionic dark matter can collapse and form black holes. The upper limit on the fraction of dark matter black holes depends on the minimum mass of the black holes that can be formed: the most constraining result is obtained at M_{min}=1  M_{⊙}, where f_{DBH}≡Ω_{DBH}/Ω_{DM}≲0.003%. These are the first constraints placed on dissipative dark models by subsolar-mass analyses.

P-748 Cesarean scar defect does not predict embryo transfer outcomes: A retrospective cohort study

Study question

Is the presence of a cesarean scar defect associated with live birth outcomes at the time of embryo transfer?

Summary answer

The presence of a cesarean scar defect is not predictive of live birth rates at the time of embryo transfer.

What is known already

Cesarean delivery is associated with subsequent impaired fertility, with lower pregnancy and live birth rates and longer inter-pregnancy intervals, compared to patients who delivered vaginally. Studies exploring pregnancy rates after IVF and embryo transfer also suggest lower pregnancy rates among patients with prior cesarean delivery. A postulated mechanism by which a prior cesarean delivery may impact fertility is the cesarean scar defect, and prior studies have shown a possible association between a scar defect and suboptimal outcomes.

Study design, size, duration

We retrospectively identified a patient cohort based out of the Ottawa Fertility Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, between 2013 and 2019.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

This retrospective cohort study included 317 patients with a prior cesarean delivery. Embryo transfer outcomes compared between the two groups based on the finding of a cesarean scar defect. The primary outcome was live birth rate, secondary outcomes of positive hCG, clinical intrauterine pregnancy, miscarriage rate. We fit a multivariate log binomial regression model with a priori variables for the primary and secondary outcomes, adjusting for patient and cycle characteristics.

Main results and the role of chance

There was no statistically significant difference in live birth rate among patients with a cesarean scar defect compared to those without, 28.0% vs 29.5% respectively (adjusted RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.68-1.35). There was no statistically significant difference in any of the secondary outcomes. Area of the defect and subgroup analysis of fresh vs frozen embryo transfer did not demonstrate any difference. Secondary analysis of patients with retroverted uterus had significantly lower live birth rates compared to those with an anteverted uterus, 17.7% vs 32.4%, respectively (adjusted RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.34-0.91).

Limitations, reasons for caution

Although a multivariate log binomial model was used to adjust for clinically relevant confounders, there remains the possibility for residual confounding given the observational nature of our study.

Wider implications of the findings

The results of our study suggest that, after adjusting for patient and cycle characteristics, the presence of a cesarean scar defect may not impact live birth outcomes and secondary analysis of the impact of uterine retroversion requires more study.

Trial registration number

Not applicable

Using trained dogs and organic semi-conducting sensors to identify asymptomatic and mild SARS-CoV-2 infections: an observational study

BACKGROUND

A rapid, accurate, non-invasive diagnostic screen is needed to identify people with SARS-CoV-2 infection. We investigated whether organic semi-conducting (OSC) sensors and trained dogs could distinguish between people infected with asymptomatic or mild symptoms, and uninfected individuals, and the impact of screening at ports-of-entry.

METHODS

Odour samples were collected from adults, and SARS-CoV-2 infection status confirmed using RT-PCR. OSC sensors captured the volatile organic compound (VOC) profile of odour samples. Trained dogs were tested in a double-blind trial to determine their ability to detect differences in VOCs between infected and uninfected individuals, with sensitivity and specificity as the primary outcome. Mathematical modelling was used to investigate the impact of bio-detection dogs for screening.

RESULTS

About, 3921 adults were enrolled in the study and odour samples collected from 1097 SARS-CoV-2 infected and 2031 uninfected individuals. OSC sensors were able to distinguish between SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals and uninfected, with sensitivity from 98% (95% CI 95-100) to 100% and specificity from 99% (95% CI 97-100) to 100%. Six dogs were able to distinguish between samples with sensitivity ranging from 82% (95% CI 76-87) to 94% (95% CI 89-98) and specificity ranging from 76% (95% CI 70-82) to 92% (95% CI 88-96). Mathematical modelling suggests that dog screening plus a confirmatory PCR test could detect up to 89% of SARS-CoV-2 infections, averting up to 2.2 times as much transmission compared to isolation of symptomatic individuals only.

CONCLUSIONS

People infected with SARS-CoV-2, with asymptomatic or mild symptoms, have a distinct odour that can be identified by sensors and trained dogs with a high degree of accuracy. Odour-based diagnostics using sensors and/or dogs may prove a rapid and effective tool for screening large numbers of people.Trial Registration NCT04509713 (clinicaltrials.gov).

CAS Common Chemistry in 2021: Expanding Access to Trusted Chemical Information for the Scientific Community

CAS Common Chemistry (https://commonchemistry.cas.org/) is an open web resource that provides access to reliable chemical substance information for the scientific community. Having served millions of visitors since its creation in 2009, the resource was extensively updated in 2021 with significant enhancements. The underlying dataset was expanded from 8000 to 500,000 chemical substances and includes additional associated information, such as basic properties and computer-readable chemical structure information. New use cases are supported with enhanced search capabilities and an integrated application programming interface. Reusable licensing of the content is provided through a Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial (CC-BY-NC 4.0) license allowing other public resources to integrate the data into their systems. This paper provides an overview of the enhancements to data and functionality, discusses the benefits of the contribution to the chemistry community, and summarizes recent progress in leveraging this resource to strengthen other information sources.

Demographic patterns of human antibody levels to Simulium damnosum s.l. saliva in onchocerciasis-endemic areas: An indicator of exposure to vector bites

BACKGROUND

In onchocerciasis endemic areas in Africa, heterogenous biting rates by blackfly vectors on humans are assumed to partially explain age- and sex-dependent infection patterns with Onchocerca volvulus. To underpin these assumptions and further improve predictions made by onchocerciasis transmission models, demographic patterns in antibody responses to salivary antigens of Simulium damnosum s.l. are evaluated as a measure of blackfly exposure.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Recently developed IgG and IgM anti-saliva immunoassays for S. damnosum s.l. were applied to blood samples collected from residents in four onchocerciasis endemic villages in Ghana. Demographic patterns in antibody levels according to village, sex and age were explored by fitting generalized linear models. Antibody levels varied between villages but showed consistent patterns with age and sex. Both IgG and IgM responses declined with increasing age. IgG responses were generally lower in males than in females and exhibited a steeper decline in adult males than in adult females. No sex-specific difference was observed in IgM responses.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The decline in age-specific antibody patterns suggested development of immunotolerance or desensitization to blackfly saliva antigen in response to persistent exposure. The variation between sexes, and between adults and youngsters may reflect differences in behaviour influencing cumulative exposure. These measures of antibody acquisition and decay could be incorporated into onchocerciasis transmission models towards informing onchocerciasis control, elimination, and surveillance.

Improving anthelmintic treatment for schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiases through sharing and reuse of individual participant data

The Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO, https://www.iddo.org) has launched a clinical data platform for the collation, curation, standardisation and reuse of individual participant data (IPD) on treatments for two of the most globally important neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), schistosomiasis (SCH) and soil-transmitted helminthiases (STHs). This initiative aims to harness the power of data-sharing by facilitating collaborative joint analyses of pooled datasets to generate robust evidence on the efficacy and safety of anthelminthic treatment regimens. A crucial component of this endeavour has been the development of a Research Agenda to promote engagement with the SCH and STH research and disease control communities by highlighting key questions that could be tackled using data shared through the IDDO platform. Here, we give a contextual overview of the priority research themes articulated in the Research Agenda-a 'living' document hosted on the IDDO website-and describe the three-stage consultation process behind its development. We also discuss the sustainability and future directions of the platform, emphasising throughout the power and promise of ethical and equitable sharing and reuse of clinical data to support the elimination of NTDs.

Surveillance and control of SARS-CoV-2 in mustelids: An evolutionary perspective

The relevance of mustelids in SARS-CoV-2 transmission has become increasingly evident. Alongside experimental demonstration of airborne transmission among ferrets, the major animal model for human respiratory diseases, transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within- and/or between-commercial mink farms has occurred and continues to occur. The number of mink reared for the luxury fur trade is approximately 60.5 million, across 36 mustelid-farming countries. By July 2021, SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks have been reported in 12 of these countries, at 412 European and 20 North American mink farms. Reverse zoonotic transmission events (from humans to mink) have introduced the virus to farms with subsequent extensive mink-to-mink transmission as well as further zoonotic (mink-to-human) transmission events generating cases among both farm workers and the broader community. Overcrowded housing conditions inherent within intensive mink farms, often combined with poor sanitation and welfare, both guarantee spread of SARS-CoV-2 and facilitate opportunities for viral variants, thereby effectively representing biotic hubs for viral transmission and evolution of virulence. Adequate preventative, surveillance and control measures within the mink industry are imperative both for the control of the current global pandemic and to mitigate against future outbreaks.

Caesarean birth in women with infertility: population-based cohort study

Objective

Caesarean section (CS) is more common following infertility treatment (IT) but the reasons why remain unclear and confounded. The Robson 10‐Group Classification System (TGCS) may further explain variation in CS rates. We assessed the association between mode of conception and CS across Robson groups.

Design

Population‐based cohort study.

Setting

Ontario, Canada, in a public healthcare system.

Population

921 023 births, 2006–2014.

Methods

Modified Poisson regression produced relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals, comparing the risk of CS among women with (1) subfertility without IT, (2) non‐invasive IT (OI, IUI) or (3) invasive IT (IVF)—each relative to (4) spontaneous conception (SC).

Main outcome measures

CS rate according to one of four modes of conception, overall and stratified by each of the TGCS groups.

Results

Relative to SC (26.9%), the risk of CS increased in those with subfertility without IT (RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.16–1.18), non‐invasive IT (RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.18–1.24) and invasive IT (RR 1.39, 95% CI 1.36–1.42). Within each Robson group, similar patterns of RRs were seen, but with markedly differing rates. For example, in Group 1 (nulliparous, singleton, cephalic at ≥37 weeks, with spontaneous labour), the respective rates were 15.0, 19.4, 18.7 and 21.9%; in Group 2 (nulliparous, singleton, cephalic at ≥37 weeks, without spontaneous labour), the rates were 35.9, 44.4, 43.2 and 54.1%; and in Group 8 (multiple pregnancy), they were 55.9, 67.5, 65.0 and 69.3%, respectively.

Conclusions

CS is relatively more common in women with subfertility and those receiving IT, an effect that persists across Robson groups.

Tweetable abstract

Caesarean delivery is more common in women with infertility independent of demographics and prenatal conditions.

Caesarean delivery is more common in women with infertility independent of demographics and prenatal conditions.

Individual responses to a single oral dose of albendazole indicate reduced efficacy against soil-transmitted helminths in an area with high drug pressure

BACKGROUND

Albendazole (ALB) is administered annually to millions of children through global deworming programs targeting soil-transmitted helminths (STHs: Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworms, Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale). However, due to the lack of large individual patient datasets collected using standardized protocols and the application of population-based statistical methods, little is known about factors that may affect individual responses to treatment.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We re-analyzed 645 individual patient data from three standardized clinical trials designed to assess the efficacy of a single 400 mg oral dose of ALB against STHs in schoolchildren from different study sites, each with varying history of drug pressure based on duration of mass drug administration programs: Ethiopia, low; Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR), moderate; Pemba Island (Tanzania), high. Using a Bayesian statistical modelling approach to estimate individual responses (individual egg reduction rates, ERRi), we found that efficacy was lower in Pemba Island, particularly for T. trichiura. For this STH, the proportion of participants with a satisfactory response (ERRi ≥50%), was 65% in Ethiopia, 61% in Lao PDR but only 29% in Pemba Island. There was a significant correlation between ERRi and infection intensity prior to drug administration (ERRi decreasing as a function of increasing infection intensity). Individual age and sex also affected the drug response, but these were of negligible clinical significance and not consistent across STHs and study sites.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

We found decreased efficacy of ALB against all the STHs analyzed in Pemba Island (Tanzania), an area with high drug pressure. This does not indicate causality, as this association may also be partially explained by differences in infection intensity prior to drug administration. Notwithstanding, our results indicate that without alternative treatment regimens, program targets will not be achievable on Pemba Island because of inadequate efficacy of ALB.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was registered on Clinicaltrials.gov (ID: NCT03465488) on March 7, 2018.

Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation and automated external defibrillator use after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: uncovering differences in care and survival across the urban-rural spectrum

Background

Despite regional variation in survival following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), few studies have investigated urban-rural differences in the provision of care and outcomes after OHCA. To better understand the role of pre-hospital care across the urban-rural spectrum, we compared the effects of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and automated external defibrillator (AED) use on survival after OHCA between geographical settings.

Methods

This retrospective study (2013–2019) used all adult, non-traumatic, and treated OHCAs registered in the Cardiac Arrest Registry to Enhance Survival. The urban/rural status of arrest locations were classified at the census tract level as urban, suburban, large rural, small town, or rural, using the Rural-Urban Commuting Area classification system (Figure). Bystander interventions were grouped into three categories, including no bystander intervention, bystander CPR alone, and bystander AED use (with CPR). The primary outcome of interest was survival to hospital discharge with good neurological outcome. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed to assess the association between bystander interventions and survival with good neurological outcome by urban/rural status, adjusting for relevant covariates.

Results

A total of 325,281 patients were included. Bystander CPR alone occurred most often in rural areas (50.8%), and least often in urban areas (35.4%). Bystander AED use varied by urban/rural status (1.7%-2.9%), with large rural (2.9%) and rural areas (2.4%) reporting the highest rates. Survival to hospital discharge with good neurological outcome differed for urban (8.1%), suburban (7.7%), large rural (9.1%), small town (7.1%), and rural areas (6.1%). In all areas, patients who received bystander AED use or bystander CPR alone were more likely to achieve survival with good neurological outcome than patients who received no bystander intervention. The effect of bystander AED use on survival was stronger than bystander CPR alone in urban, suburban, and rural areas (no overlap of confidence bands), whereas no significant differences between these two bystander intervention groups were observed in large rural areas or small towns (overlap of confidence bands) (Table).

Conclusions

Bystander CPR and AED use are critical components of the response to OHCA across the urban-rural spectrum. The relative impact of bystander interventions on survival varied based on the geographical location of arrests, despite adjusting for numerous potential confounding variables, such as response time. It is possible that unmeasured factors, such as time from collapse to bystander intervention, patient factors, AED accessibility, and CPR quality are contributing to these observed differences. Future research is needed to better understand the response to OHCA across the urban-rural spectrum, which may inform policies for community-specific emergency protocols and planning.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Oral vitamin D supplementation induces transcriptomic changes in rectal mucosa that are linked to anti-tumour effects

BACKGROUND

The risk for several common cancers is influenced by the transcriptomic landscape of the respective tissue-of-origin. Vitamin D influences in vitro gene expression and cancer cell growth. We sought to determine whether oral vitamin D induces beneficial gene expression effects in human rectal epithelium and identify biomarkers of response.

METHODS

Blood and rectal mucosa was sampled from 191 human subjects and mucosa gene expression (HT12) correlated with plasma vitamin D (25-OHD) to identify differentially expressed genes. Fifty subjects were then administered 3200IU/day oral vitamin D3 and matched blood/mucosa resampled after 12 weeks. Transcriptomic changes (HT12/RNAseq) after supplementation were tested against the prioritised genes for gene-set and GO-process enrichment. To identify blood biomarkers of mucosal response, we derived receiver-operator curves and C-statistic (AUC) and tested biomarker reproducibility in an independent Supplementation Trial (BEST-D).

RESULTS

Six hundred twenty-nine genes were associated with 25-OHD level (P < 0.01), highlighting 453 GO-term processes (FDR<0.05). In the whole intervention cohort, vitamin D supplementation enriched the prioritised mucosal gene-set (upregulated gene-set P < 1.0E-07; downregulated gene-set P < 2.6E-05) and corresponding GO terms (P = 2.90E-02), highlighting gene expression patterns consistent with anti-tumour effects. However, only 9 individual participants (18%) showed a significant response (NM gene-set enrichment P < 0.001) to supplementation. Expression changes in HIPK2 and PPP1CC expression served as blood biomarkers of mucosal transcriptomic response (AUC=0.84 [95%CI 0.66-1.00]) and replicated in BEST-D trial subjects (HIPK2 AUC=0.83 [95%CI 0.77-0.89]; PPP1CC AUC=0.91 [95%CI 0.86-0.95]).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher plasma 25-OHD correlates with rectal mucosa gene expression patterns consistent with anti-tumour effects, and this beneficial signature is induced by short-term vitamin D supplementation. Heterogenous gene expression responses to vitamin D may limit the ability of randomised trials to identify beneficial effects of supplementation on CRC risk. However, in the current study blood expression changes in HIPK2 and PPP1CC identify those participants with significant anti-tumour transcriptomic responses to supplementation in the rectum. These data provide compelling rationale for a trial of vitamin D and CRC prevention using easily assayed blood gene expression signatures as intermediate biomarkers of response.

Survival Outcome with Routine Clinical Use of 82Rb PET/CT Myocardial Blood Flow (MBF) Quantification

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University College London Hospitals

Background

The prognostic value of 82Rb PET/CT derived myocardial blood flow (MBF) is increasingly recognised in both general and specific cardiovascular populations.

Purpose

This study investigates the prognostic potential of MBF in a large cohort of patients undergoing routine 82Rb PET/CT examination.

Methods

1148 consecutive patients (687 males, mean age 64 +/- 12 years) whom had been referred for 82Rb PET/CT examination in a single centre were included in this study.  All patients completed a stress 82Rb PET/CT with adenosine infusion, paired with a rest study.  Dynamic PET acquisitions were performed in both. Cardiovascular risk factors were documented as per clinical routine. Images were checked for quality and analysed using a proprietary software by an experienced operator to derive MBF parameters.  Overall survival was recorded following the study.

Results

Median follow-up period was 71 +/- 28 months.  Mean survival was 121 (95% CI: 118-124) months. On univariate analysis, global myocardial flow reserve &lt;1.77 was associated with a higher all-cause mortality (p &lt; 0.001). Other parameters including higher age (&gt; =76 years), lower BMI (&lt;21), qualitative abnormality on the myocardial perfusion scan (MPS), low hyperaemic ejection fraction on the gated studies (stress &lt; 37 and rest &lt; 34). Patients being on cardiac glycosides and diuretics were also significant predictor of poor prognosis (p &lt; 0.001) on univariate analysis, presumably reflecting underlying arrhythmia and heart failure. A multivariate Cox regression analysis (step-wise Forward Wald), comprising of the above significant univariate markers, highlighted global myocardial flow reserve (HR: 2.6, 95%CI: 1.8-3.6, p &lt; 0.001), age (HR: 2.8, 95%CI: 2.0-3.9, p &lt; 0.001),, BMI (HR: 2.7, 95%CI: 1.7-4.1, p &lt; 0.001),, ejection fraction (stress - HR: 3.3, 95%CI: 2.3-4.8, p &lt; 0.001), MPS (HR: 1.5, 95%CI: 1.1-2.1, p = 0.024), and patients on diuretics (HR: 1.8, 95%CI: 1.2-2.5, p = 0.003) were independent predictors of overall survival (overall model: p &lt; 0.001)

Discussion

We show that high volume routinely derived MBF in patients undergoing 82Rb PET/CT is a strong predictor of mortality and independent of other risk factors. This has important clinical implication for measuring not only interventional treatment but also measuring the effect of lifestyle and medical strategies.

Neurocysticercosis and HIV/AIDS co-infection: A scoping review

OBJECTIVES

Neurocysticercosis (NCC) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have a high disease burden and are prevalent in overlapping low- and middle-income areas. Yet, treatment guidance for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWH/A) co-infected with NCC is currently lacking. This study aims to scope the available literature on HIV/AIDS and NCC co-infection, focusing on epidemiology, clinical characteristics, diagnostics and treatment outcomes.

METHODS

The scoping literature review methodological framework, and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed. A total of 16,969 records identified through database searching, and 45 additional records from other sources were reduced to 52 included studies after a standardised selection process.

RESULTS

Two experimental studies, ten observational studies, 23 case series/case reports and 17 reviews or letters were identified. Observational studies demonstrated similar NCC seroprevalence in PLWH/A and their HIV-negative counterparts. Of 29 PLWH/A and NCC co-infection, 17 (59%) suffered from epileptic seizures, 15 (52%) from headaches and 15 (52%) had focal neurological deficits. Eighteen (62%) had viable vesicular cysts, and six (21%) had calcified cysts. Fifteen (52%) were treated with albendazole, of which 11 (73%) responded well to treatment. Five individuals potentially demonstrated an immune-reconstitution inflammatory syndrome after commencing antiretroviral therapy, although this was in the absence of immunological and neuroimaging confirmation.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a paucity of evidence to guide treatment of PLWH/A and NCC co-infection. There is a pressing need for high-quality studies in this patient group to appropriately inform diagnostic and management guidelines for HIV-positive patients with NCC.

Scaling-Down Mass Ivermectin Treatment for Onchocerciasis Elimination: Modeling the Impact of the Geographical Unit for Decision Making

Background

Due to spatial heterogeneity in onchocerciasis transmission, the duration of ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) required for eliminating onchocerciasis will vary within endemic areas and the occurrence of transmission “hotspots” is inevitable. The geographical scale at which stop-MDA decisions are made will be a key driver in how rapidly national programs can scale down active intervention upon achieving the epidemiological targets for elimination.

Methods

We used 2 onchocerciasis models (EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM) to predict the likelihood of achieving elimination by 2030 in Africa, accounting for variation in preintervention endemicity levels and histories of ivermectin treatment. We explore how decision making at contrasting geographical scales (community vs larger scale “project”) changes projections on populations still requiring MDA or transitioning to post-treatment surveillance.

Results

The total population considered grows from 118 million people in 2020 to 136 million in 2030. If stop-MDA decisions are made at project level, the number of people requiring treatment declines from 69–118 million in 2020 to 59–118 million in 2030. If stop-MDA decisions are made at community level, the numbers decline from 23–81 million in 2020 to 15–63 million in 2030. The lower estimates in these prediction intervals are based on ONCHOSIM, the upper limits on EPIONCHO-IBM.

Conclusions

The geographical scale at which stop-MDA decisions are made strongly determines how rapidly national onchocerciasis programs can scale down MDA programs. Stopping in portions of project areas or transmission zones would free up human and economic resources.

Survey Design to Monitor Drug Efficacy for the Control of Soil-Transmitted Helminthiasis and Schistosomiasis

Background

Control of soil-transmitted helminthiasis and schistosomiasis relies heavily on regular preventive chemotherapy. Monitoring drug efficacy is crucial to provide early warning of treatment failures. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a survey design in which only egg-positive individuals are retested after treatment. Although this practice makes more efficient use of resources, it may lead to biased drug efficacy estimates.

Methods

We performed a simulation study to assess the potential for bias when evaluating drug efficacy using the World Health Organization–recommended survey design, and to identify alternative designs for evaluating drug efficacy that are less affected by bias. These designs were also based on selection of egg-positive individuals, but involve retesting them a second time at baseline and up to 2 times at follow-up. The utility of the different designs was compared fairly by constraining them to the same budget.

Results

The standard procedure of selecting egg-positive individuals can introduce a substantial positive bias in drug efficacy due to regression toward the mean, particularly when infection levels or drug efficacy are low. This bias was completely eliminated by using a second baseline sample, conditionally on the first sample being excluded from analysis. Precision of estimates can be improved by increasing the number of thick smears and/or samples per person at follow-up, despite fewer individuals being tested within the same budget.

Conclusions

We present optimized survey designs to monitor drug efficacy in field settings, which are highly relevant for sustained control of soil-transmitted helminths and schistosomiasis, as well as onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis.

Constraints on Cosmic Strings Using Data from the Third Advanced LIGO-Virgo Observing Run

We search for gravitational-wave signals produced by cosmic strings in the Advanced LIGO and Virgo full O3 dataset. Search results are presented for gravitational waves produced by cosmic string loop features such as cusps, kinks, and, for the first time, kink-kink collisions. A template-based search for short-duration transient signals does not yield a detection. We also use the stochastic gravitational-wave background energy density upper limits derived from the O3 data to constrain the cosmic string tension Gμ as a function of the number of kinks, or the number of cusps, for two cosmic string loop distribution models. Additionally, we develop and test a third model that interpolates between these two models. Our results improve upon the previous LIGO-Virgo constraints on Gμ by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude depending on the model that is tested. In particular, for the one-loop distribution model, we set the most competitive constraints to date: Gμ≲4×10^{-15}. In the case of cosmic strings formed at the end of inflation in the context of grand unified theories, these results challenge simple inflationary models.

Constraints on Cosmic Strings Using Data from the Third Advanced LIGO-Virgo Observing Run

We search for gravitational-wave signals produced by cosmic strings in the Advanced LIGO and Virgo full O3 dataset. Search results are presented for gravitational waves produced by cosmic string loop features such as cusps, kinks, and, for the first time, kink-kink collisions. A template-based search for short-duration transient signals does not yield a detection. We also use the stochastic gravitational-wave background energy density upper limits derived from the O3 data to constrain the cosmic string tension Gμ as a function of the number of kinks, or the number of cusps, for two cosmic string loop distribution models. Additionally, we develop and test a third model that interpolates between these two models. Our results improve upon the previous LIGO-Virgo constraints on Gμ by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude depending on the model that is tested. In particular, for the one-loop distribution model, we set the most competitive constraints to date: Gμ≲4×10^{-15}. In the case of cosmic strings formed at the end of inflation in the context of grand unified theories, these results challenge simple inflationary models.

Serological Evaluation of Onchocerciasis and Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination in the Bakoye and Falémé Foci, Mali

Background

Ivermectin-based onchocerciasis elimination, reported in 2009–2012, for Bakoye and Falémé, Mali, supported policy-shifting from morbidity control to elimination of transmission (EOT). These foci are coendemic with lymphatic filariasis (LF). In 2007–2016 mass ivermectin plus albendazole administration was implemented. We report Ov16 (onchocerciasis) and Wb123 (LF) seroprevalence after 24–25 years of treatment to determine if onchocerciasis EOT and LF elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) have been achieved.

Methods

The SD Bioline Onchocerciasis/LF Ig[immunoglobulin]G4 biplex rapid diagnostic test (RDT) was used in 2186 children aged 3–10 years in 13 villages (plus 2 hamlets) in Bakoye and in 2270 children in 15 villages (plus 1 hamlet) in Falémé. In Bakoye, all-age serosurveys were conducted in 3 historically hyperendemic villages (1867 individuals aged 3 -78 years).

Results

In Bakoye, IgG4 seropositivity was 0.27% (95% confidence interval [CI] = .13%–.60%) for both Ov16 and Wb123 antigens. In Falémé, Ov16 and Wb123 seroprevalence was 0.04% (95% CI = .01%–.25%) and 0.09% (95% CI = .02%–.32%), respectively. Ov16-seropositive children were from historically meso/hyperendemic villages. Ov16 positivity was <2% in ≤14 year-olds, and 16% in ≥40 year-olds. Wb123 seropositivity was <2% in ≤39 year-olds, reaching 3% in ≥40 year-olds.

Conclusions

Notwithstanding uncertainty in the biplex RDT sensitivity, Ov16 and Wb123 seroprevalence among children in Bakoye and Falémé is consistent with EOT (onchocerciasis) and EPHP (LF) since stopping treatment in 2016. The few Ov16-seropositive children should be skin-snip polymerase chain reaction tested and followed up.

906 Implementing and Re-Designing A Virtual Fracture Clinic (VFC) During The COVID-19 Pandemic

Introduction

We have implemented a VFC model during the COVID-19 pandemic to minimise the number of face-to-face consultations and the risk of transmission.

Method

The VFC was implemented and assessed using 3 PDSA cycles. Initially, a paper referral system was introduced along with treatment pathways. Subsequently an electronic referral system was established. The 3rd PDSA cycle involved training A&E staff on referrals and treatment pathways. At each stage the number of VFC referrals and clinic follow-ups were measured. Patient satisfaction was assessed using a telephone survey with a random sample of 30 patients.

Results

There was a statistically significant reduction in face-to-face follow-ups between pre-VFC (Total:4083, Average:86.87) and post-VFC (Total:713, Average:35.65) p-value&lt;0.0001. There was a statistically significant increase in patient satisfaction after the implementation of the electronic referral system and staff re-training(9.25) compared to paper referrals(8.23), p-value=0.02064.

Conclusions

Our study demonstrated that the VFC successfully reduced the number of face-to-face follow-ups while maintaining patient satisfaction. Thus, it is an effective alternative to conventional fracture clinics. A similar model can be introduced at other hospitals to minimise in-person consultations and risk of transmission, while standardising patient care. It has also highlighted the importance of appropriate technological infrastructure, staff training and service evaluation.

Toward Improving Interventions Against Toxoplasmosis by Identifying Routes of Transmission Using Sporozoite-specific Serological Tools

BACKGROUND

Horizontal transmission of Toxoplasma gondii occurs primarily via ingestion of environmental oocysts or consumption of undercooked/raw meat containing cyst-stage bradyzoites. The relative importance of these 2 transmission routes remains unclear. Oocyst infection can be distinguished from bradyzoite infection by identification of immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies against T. gondii embryogenesis-related protein (TgERP). These antibodies are, however, thought to persist for only 6-8 months in human sera, limiting the use of TgERP serology to only those patients recently exposed to T. gondii. Yet recent serological survey data indicate a more sustained persistence of anti-TgERP antibodies. Elucidating the duration of anti-TgERP IgG will help to determine whether TgERP serology has epidemiological utility for quantifying the relative importance of different routes of T. gondii transmission.

METHODS

We developed a serocatalytic mathematical model to capture the change in seroprevalence of non-stage-specific IgG and anti-TgERP IgG antibodies with human age. The model was fitted to published datasets collected in an endemic region of Brazil to estimate the duration of anti-TgERP IgG antibodies, accounting for variable age-force of infection profiles and uncertainty in the diagnostic performance of TgERP serology.

RESULTS

We found that anti-TgERP IgG persists for substantially longer than previously recognized, with estimates ranging from 8.3 to 41.1 years. The Brazilian datasets were consistent with oocysts being the predominant transmission route in these settings.

CONCLUSIONS

The longer than previously recognized duration of anti-TgERP antibodies indicates that anti-TgERP serology could be a useful tool for delineating T. gondii transmission routes in human populations. TgERP serology may therefore be an important epidemiological tool for informing the design of tailored, setting-specific public health information campaigns and interventions.

Supporting drug development for neglected tropical diseases using mathematical modelling

Drug-based interventions are at the heart of global efforts to reach elimination as a public health problem (trachoma, soil-transmitted helminthiases, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis) or elimination of transmission (onchocerciasis) for 5 of the most prevalent neglected tropical diseases tackled via the World Health Organization preventive chemotherapy strategy. While for some of these diseases there is optimism that currently available drugs will be sufficient to achieve the proposed elimination goals, for others—particularly onchocerciasis—there is a growing consensus that novel therapeutic options will be needed. Since in this area no high return of investment is possible, minimizing wasted money and resources is essential. Here, we use illustrative results to show how mathematical modeling can guide the drug development pathway, yielding resource-saving and efficiency payoffs, from the refinement of target product profiles and intended context of use to the design of clinical trials.