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Savagar B, Jones BA, Arnold M, Walker M, Fournié G. Modelling flock heterogeneity in the transmission of peste des petits ruminants virus and its impact on the effectiveness of vaccination for eradication. Epidemics 2023; 45:100725. [PMID: 37935076 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100725] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2023] [Revised: 09/29/2023] [Accepted: 10/30/2023] [Indexed: 11/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an acute infectious disease of small ruminants targeted for global eradication by 2030. The Global Strategy for Control and Eradication (GSCE) recommends mass vaccination targeting 70% coverage of small ruminant populations in PPR-endemic regions. These small ruminant populations are diverse with heterogeneous mixing patterns that may influence PPR virus (PPRV) transmission dynamics. This paper evaluates the impact of heterogeneous mixing on (i) PPRV transmission and (ii) the likelihood of different vaccination strategies achieving PPRV elimination, including the GSCE recommended strategy. We develop models simulating heterogeneous transmission between hosts, including a metapopulation model of PPRV transmission between villages in lowland Ethiopia fitted to serological data. Our results demonstrate that although heterogeneous mixing of small ruminant populations increases the instability of PPRV transmission-increasing the chance of fadeout in the absence of intervention-a vaccination coverage of 70% may be insufficient to achieve elimination if high-risk populations are not targeted. Transmission may persist despite very high vaccination coverage (>90% small ruminants) if vaccination is biased towards more accessible but lower-risk populations such as sedentary small ruminant flocks. These results highlight the importance of characterizing small ruminant mobility patterns and identifying high-risk populations for vaccination and support a move towards targeted, risk-based vaccination programmes in the next phase of the PPRV eradication programme. Our modelling approach also illustrates a general framework for incorporating heterogeneous mixing patterns into models of directly transmitted infectious diseases where detailed contact data are limited. This study improves understanding of PPRV transmission and elimination in heterogeneous small ruminant populations and should be used to inform and optimize the design of PPRV vaccination programmes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bethan Savagar
- Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, WOAH Collaborating Centre for Risk Analysis and Modelling, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, The Royal Veterinary College, London, UK.
| | - Bryony A Jones
- Department of Epidemiological Sciences, WOAH Collaborating Centre in Risk Analysis and Modelling, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), Addlestone, Surrey, UK
| | - Mark Arnold
- Department of Epidemiological Sciences, WOAH Collaborating Centre in Risk Analysis and Modelling, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), Addlestone, Surrey, UK
| | - Martin Walker
- Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, WOAH Collaborating Centre for Risk Analysis and Modelling, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, The Royal Veterinary College, London, UK; London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, UK
| | - Guillaume Fournié
- Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, WOAH Collaborating Centre for Risk Analysis and Modelling, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, The Royal Veterinary College, London, UK; Université de Lyon, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, Marcy l'Etoile, France; Université Clermont Auvergne, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR EPIA, Saint Genes Champanelle, France
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Russell TL, Grignard L, Apairamo A, Kama N, Bobogare A, Drakeley C, Burkot TR. Getting to zero: micro-foci of malaria in the Solomon Islands requires stratified control. Malar J 2021; 20:248. [PMID: 34090430 PMCID: PMC8180101 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-021-03779-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2021] [Accepted: 05/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Solomon Islands has made significant progress in the control of malaria through vector control, access and use of improved diagnostics and therapeutic drugs. As transmission is reduced there is a need to understand variations in transmission risk at the provincial and village levels to stratify control methods. METHODS A cross-sectional survey of malaria in humans was conducted in the Solomon Islands during April 2018. Nineteen villages across 4 provinces were included. The presence of Plasmodium species parasites in blood samples was detected using PCR. RESULTS Blood samples were analysed from 1,914 participants. The prevalence of DNA of Plasmodium falciparum was 1.2 % (n = 23) and for Plasmodium vivax was 1.5 % (n = 28). 22 % (n = 5/23) of P. falciparum DNA positive participants were febrile and 17 % of P. vivax DNA positive participants (n = 5/28). The prevalence of both P. falciparum and P. vivax was extremely spatially heterogeneous. For P. falciparum, in particular, only 2 small foci of transmission were identified among 19 villages. Plasmodium falciparum infections were uniformly distributed across age groups. Insecticide-treated bed net use the night prior to the survey was reported by 63 % of participants and significantly differed by province. CONCLUSIONS Malaria transmission across the Solomon Islands has become increasingly fragmented, affecting fewer villages and provinces. The majority of infections were afebrile suggesting the need for strong active case detection with radical cure with primaquine for P. vivax. Village-level stratification of targeted interventions based on passive and active case detection data could support the progress towards a more cost-effective and successful elimination programme.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tanya L Russell
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, Australia.
| | - Lynn Grignard
- Department of Infection Biology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Alan Apairamo
- National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme, Ministry of Health and Medical Services, Honiara, Solomon Islands
| | - Nathan Kama
- National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme, Ministry of Health and Medical Services, Honiara, Solomon Islands
| | - Albino Bobogare
- National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme, Ministry of Health and Medical Services, Honiara, Solomon Islands
| | - Chris Drakeley
- Department of Infection Biology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Thomas R Burkot
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, Australia
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Mari L, Ciddio M, Casagrandi R, Perez-Saez J, Bertuzzo E, Rinaldo A, Sokolow SH, De Leo GA, Gatto M. Heterogeneity in schistosomiasis transmission dynamics. J Theor Biol 2017; 432:87-99. [PMID: 28823529 PMCID: PMC5595357 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.08.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2017] [Revised: 06/30/2017] [Accepted: 08/15/2017] [Indexed: 01/30/2023]
Abstract
Transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis presents multiple heterogeneity sources. A comprehensive framework for heterogeneous disease transmission is proposed. Heterogeneous multigroup communities can be more prone to parasite transmission. Presence of multiple water sources can hinder parasite transmission. Spatial and temporal heterogeneities can have nontrivial implications for endemicity.
Simple models of disease propagation often disregard the effects of transmission heterogeneity on the ecological and epidemiological dynamics associated with host-parasite interactions. However, for some diseases like schistosomiasis, a widespread parasitic infection caused by Schistosoma worms, accounting for heterogeneity is crucial to both characterize long-term dynamics and evaluate opportunities for disease control. Elaborating on the classic Macdonald model for macroparasite transmission, we analyze families of models including explicit descriptions of heterogeneity related to differential transmission risk within a community, water contact patterns, the distribution of the snail host population, human mobility, and the seasonal fluctuations of the environment. Through simple numerical examples, we show that heterogeneous multigroup communities may be more prone to schistosomiasis than homogeneous ones, that the availability of multiple water sources can hinder parasite transmission, and that both spatial and temporal heterogeneities may have nontrivial implications for disease endemicity. Finally, we discuss the implications of heterogeneity for disease control. Although focused on schistosomiasis, results from this study may apply as well to other parasitic infections with complex transmission cycles, such as cysticercosis, dracunculiasis and fasciolosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lorenzo Mari
- Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy.
| | - Manuela Ciddio
- Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy
| | - Renato Casagrandi
- Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy
| | - Javier Perez-Saez
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Enrico Bertuzzo
- Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Informatica e Statistica, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 30170 Venezia Mestre, Italy
| | - Andrea Rinaldo
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; Dipartimento ICEA, Università di Padova, 35131 Padova, Italy
| | - Susanne H Sokolow
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA; Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA
| | - Giulio A De Leo
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA
| | - Marino Gatto
- Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy
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Kerkhof K, Sluydts V, Heng S, Kim S, Pareyn M, Willen L, Canier L, Sovannaroth S, Ménard D, Sochantha T, Coosemans M, Durnez L. Geographical patterns of malaria transmission based on serological markers for falciparum and vivax malaria in Ratanakiri, Cambodia. Malar J 2016; 15:510. [PMID: 27756395 PMCID: PMC5069850 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-016-1558-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2016] [Accepted: 10/07/2016] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Malaria transmission is highly heterogeneous, especially in low endemic countries, such as Cambodia. This results in geographical clusters of residual transmission in the dry, low transmission season, which can fuel the transmission to wider areas or populations during the wet season. A better understanding of spatial clustering of malaria can lead to a more efficient, targeted strategy to reduce malaria transmission. This study aims to evaluate the potential of the use of serological markers to define spatial patterns in malaria exposure. Methods Blood samples collected in a community-based randomized trial performed in 98 high endemic communities in Ratanakiri province, north-eastern Cambodia, were screened with a multiplex serological assay for five serological markers (three Plasmodium falciparum and two Plasmodium vivax). The antibody half-lives range from approximately six months until more than two years. Geographical heterogeneity in malaria transmission was examined using a spatial scan statistic on serology, PCR prevalence and malaria incidence rate data. Furthermore, to identify behavioural patterns or intrinsic factors associated with malaria exposure (antibody levels), risk factor analyses were performed by using multivariable random effect logistic regression models. The serological outcomes were then compared to PCR prevalence and malaria incidence data. Results A total of 6502 samples from two surveys were screened in an area where the average parasite prevalence estimated by PCR among the selected villages is 3.4 %. High-risk malaria pockets were observed adjacent to the ‘Tonle San River’ and neighbouring Vietnam for all three sets of data (serology, PCR prevalence and malaria incidence rates). The main risk factors for all P. falciparum antigens and P. vivax MSP1.19 are age, ethnicity and staying overnight at the plot hut. Conclusion It is possible to identify similar malaria pockets of higher malaria transmission together with the potential risk factors by using serology instead of PCR prevalence or malaria incidence data. In north-eastern Cambodia, the serological markers show that malaria transmission occurs mainly in adults staying overnight in plot huts in the field. Pf.GLURP.R2 showed a shrinking pocket of malaria transmission over time, and Pf.MSP1.19, CSP, PvAMA1 were also informative for current infection to a lesser extent. Therefore, serology could contribute in future research. However, further in-depth research in selecting the best combination of antigens is required. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1558-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karen Kerkhof
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium. .,Department of Biomedical Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
| | - Vincent Sluydts
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium.,Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Somony Heng
- National Centre for Parasitology, Entomology and Malaria Control, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Saorin Kim
- Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Institut Pasteur du Cambodge, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Myrthe Pareyn
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium.,Department of Biomedical Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Laura Willen
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Lydie Canier
- Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Institut Pasteur du Cambodge, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Siv Sovannaroth
- National Centre for Parasitology, Entomology and Malaria Control, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Didier Ménard
- Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Institut Pasteur du Cambodge, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Tho Sochantha
- National Centre for Parasitology, Entomology and Malaria Control, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
| | - Marc Coosemans
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium.,Department of Biomedical Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Lies Durnez
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium
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