Costs and financial feasibility of malaria elimination

Infectious disease. The stability of malaria elimination

Eradication may not be necessary before countries can eliminate, scale back control, and rely on health systems.

Control and elimination of Plasmodium vivax

Plasmodium vivax represents a special challenge to malaria control because of the ability of a single infection to relapse over months to years. P. vivax is more tolerant of low temperatures than P. falciparum, which spreads its potential range far beyond the tropics into sub-Arctic areas. Ordinary malaria control measures such as residual insecticide spraying and impregnated bed nets are effective for P. vivax, but long-lasting (up to 3 years) residual hepatic parasites (hypnozoites) mean that even well-executed malaria control programs must maintain maximal efforts for an extended period in order to eliminate indigenous infections. Hypnozoites are only eliminated by using an 8-aminoquinoline (currently only primaquine), which requires compliance with a long regimen as well as care to avoid those at risk of haemolysis due to the common genetic polymorphism, glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency. Risk of reintroduction of P. vivax into areas without malaria but still containing competent Anopheles vectors is enhanced as persons carrying hypnozoites are undetectable until they become symptomatic from activation of the quiescent liver parasite. Mass drug administration using drug combinations including primaquine have successfully eliminated malaria from small islands demonstrating proof of principal as a potential elimination method. It will be very difficult to maintain adequate malaria surveillance measures for years after malaria has ceased to be a public health problem, which will clearly be required to eliminate relapsing malaria such as P. vivax. New interventions will likely be required to eliminate vivax malaria; highly desirable new products include transmission-blocking vaccines, new drug combinations to treat chloroquine resistant strains and a safe, long-lasting 8-aminoquinoline.

Progress towards malaria control targets in relation to national malaria programme funding

Background

Malaria control has been dramatically scaled up the past decade, mainly thanks to increasing international donor financing since 2003. This study assessed progress up to 2010 towards global malaria impact targets, in relation to Global Fund, other donor and domestic malaria programme financing over 2003 to 2009.

Methods

Assessments used domestic malaria financing reported by national programmes, and Global Fund/OECD data on donor financing for 90 endemic low- and middle-income countries, WHO estimates of households owning one or more insecticide-treated mosquito net (ITN) for countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and WHO-estimated malaria case incidence and deaths in countries outside sub-Saharan Africa.

Results

Global Fund and other donor funding is concentrated in a subset of the highest endemic African countries. Outside Africa, donor funding is concentrated in those countries with highest malaria mortality and case incidence rates over the years 2000 to 2003. ITN coverage in 2010 in Africa, and declines in case and death rates per person at risk over 2004 to 2010 outside Africa, were greatest in countries with highest donor funding per person at risk, and smallest in countries with lowest donor malaria funding per person at risk. Outside Africa, all-source malaria programme funding over 2003 to 2009 per case averted ($56-5,749) or per death averted ($58,000-3,900,000) over 2004 to 2010 tended to be lower (more favourable) in countries with higher donor malaria funding per person at risk.

Conclusions

Increases in malaria programme funding are associated with accelerated progress towards malaria control targets. Associations between programme funding per person at risk and ITN coverage increases and declines in case and death rates suggest opportunities to maximize the impact of donor funding, by strategic re-allocation to countries with highest continued need.

Elimination of tropical disease through surveillance and response

Surveillance and response represent the final crucial steps in achieving effective control and particularly elimination of communicable diseases as recognized in the area of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), applied in increasing numbers in endemic countries with ongoing control and elimination programmers. More and more national NTD elimination initiatives are scheduled based on the innovative and effective One world-One health perspective to detect pockets of transmission and disease reintroduction. Resource-constrained countries, which carry the heaviest NTD burdens, face various challenges how to strengthen the health system as well as developing effective and novel tools for surveillance and response tailored to local settings. Surveillance-response approaches take place in two different stages corralling the basic components of the surveillance-response system for NTD elimination. Six different research priorities have been identified:1)dynamic mapping of transmission, 2) near real-time capture of population dynamics, 3) modelling based on a minimum essential database/dataset, 4) implementation of mobile health (m-health) and sensitive diagnostics, 5) design of effective response packages tailored to different transmission settings and levels, and 6) validation of approaches and responses packages.

Malaria elimination in iran, importance and challenges

BACKGROUND

The aim of study is to assess the importance and challenges of Malaria elimination (ME) in Iran's health system.

MATERIAL

Opinion of experts from Ministry of Health and Medical Education and the chancellors of medical universities affected by malaria were gathered using Focus Group Discussions and in-depth interviews. We asked them about the importance and main challenges of ME in Iran.

RESULTS

MAIN FACTORS ON IMPORTANCE OF ME WERE: it's a struggle to reach to equity in the poorest regions of county, prevention of emerging disease in susceptible regions, lowering the cost of control and its effects on the region's socioeconomic condition. Main challenges were Iran's long border with malaria-endemic countries Pakistan and Afghanistan and illegal immigrants, underdevelopment in rural areas, system's insensitivity and diagnosis problem due to reduction of cases.

CONCLUSION

Quantitative and holistic researches are needed for assessing the consequences of ME.

Malaria control and elimination in Sri Lanka: documenting progress and success factors in a conflict setting

Background

Sri Lanka has a long history of malaria control, and over the past decade has had dramatic declines in cases amid a national conflict. A case study of Sri Lanka's malaria programme was conducted to characterize the programme and explain recent progress.

Methods

The case study employed qualitative and quantitative methods. Data were collected from published and grey literature, district-level and national records, and thirty-three key informant interviews. Expenditures in two districts for two years – 2004 and 2009 – were compiled.

Findings

Malaria incidence in Sri Lanka has declined by 99.9% since 1999. During this time, there were increases in the proportion of malaria infections due to Plasmodium vivax, and the proportion of infections occurring in adult males. Indoor residual spraying and distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets have likely contributed to the low transmission. Entomological surveillance was maintained. A strong passive case detection system captures infections and active case detection was introduced. When comparing conflict and non-conflict districts, vector control and surveillance measures were maintained in conflict areas, often with higher coverage reported in conflict districts. One of two districts in the study reported a 48% decline in malaria programme expenditure per person at risk from 2004 to 2009. The other district had stable malaria spending.

Conclusions/Significance

Malaria is now at low levels in Sri Lanka – 124 indigenous cases were found in 2011. The majority of infections occur in adult males and are due to P. vivax. Evidence-driven policy and an ability to adapt to new circumstances contributed to this decline. Malaria interventions were maintained in the conflict districts despite an ongoing war. Sri Lanka has set a goal of eliminating malaria by the end of 2014. Early identification and treatment of infections, especially imported ones, together with effective surveillance and response, will be critical to achieving this goal.

Funding for malaria control 2006-2010: a comprehensive global assessment

BACKGROUND

The last decade has seen a dramatic increase in international and domestic funding for malaria control, coupled with important declines in malaria incidence and mortality in some regions of the world. As the ongoing climate of financial uncertainty places strains on investment in global health, there is an increasing need to audit the origin, recipients and geographical distribution of funding for malaria control relative to populations at risk of the disease.

METHODS

A comprehensive review of malaria control funding from international donors, bilateral sources and national governments was undertaken to reconstruct total funding by country for each year 2006 to 2010. Regions at risk from Plasmodium falciparum and/or Plasmodium vivax transmission were identified using global risk maps for 2010 and funding was assessed relative to populations at risk. Those nations with unequal funding relative to a regional average were identified and potential explanations highlighted, such as differences in national policies, government inaction or donor neglect.

RESULTS

US$8.9 billion was disbursed for malaria control and elimination programmes over the study period. Africa had the largest levels of funding per capita-at-risk, with most nations supported primarily by international aid. Countries of the Americas, in contrast, were supported typically through national government funding. Disbursements and government funding in Asia were far lower with a large variation in funding patterns. Nations with relatively high and low levels of funding are discussed.

CONCLUSIONS

Global funding for malaria control is substantially less than required. Inequity in funding is pronounced in some regions particularly when considering the distinct goals of malaria control and malaria elimination. Efforts to sustain and increase international investment in malaria control should be informed by evidence-based assessment of funding equity.

The economic benefits of malaria elimination: do they include increases in tourism?

BACKGROUND

Policy makers have speculated that one of the economic benefits of malaria elimination includes increases in foreign direct investment, particularly tourism.

METHODS

This study examines the empirical relationship between the demand for travel and malaria cases in two countries with large tourism industries around the time in which they carried out malaria-elimination campaigns. In Mauritius, this analysis examines historical, yearly tourist arrivals and malaria cases from 1978-1999, accounting for the background secular trend of increasing international travel. In Dominican Republic, a country embarking upon malaria elimination, it employs a time-series analysis of the monthly, international tourist arrivals from 1998-2010 to determine whether the timing of significant deviations in tourist arrivals coincides with malaria outbreaks.

RESULTS

While naïve relationships exist in both cases, the results show that the relationships between tourist arrivals and malaria cases are relatively weak and statistically insignificant once secular confounders are accounted for.

CONCLUSIONS

This suggests that any economic benefits from tourism that may be derived from actively pursuing elimination in countries that have high tourism potential are likely to be small when measured at a national level. Rather, tourism benefits are likely to be experienced with greater impact in more concentrated tourist areas within countries, and future studies should seek to assess these relationships at a regional or local level.

Malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion: heterogeneity and complexity

The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), comprised of six countries including Cambodia, China's Yunnan Province, Lao PDR, Myanmar (Burma), Thailand and Vietnam, is one of the most threatening foci of malaria. Since the initiation of the WHO's Mekong Malaria Program a decade ago, malaria situation in the GMS has greatly improved, reflected in the continuous decline in annual malaria incidence and deaths. However, as many nations are moving towards malaria elimination, the GMS nations still face great challenges. Malaria epidemiology in this region exhibits enormous geographical heterogeneity with Myanmar and Cambodia remaining high-burden countries. Within each country, malaria distribution is also patchy, exemplified by 'border malaria' and 'forest malaria' with high transmission occurring along international borders and in forests or forest fringes, respectively. 'Border malaria' is extremely difficult to monitor, and frequent malaria introductions by migratory human populations constitute a major threat to neighboring, malaria-eliminating countries. Therefore, coordination between neighboring countries is essential for malaria elimination from the entire region. In addition to these operational difficulties, malaria control in the GMS also encounters several technological challenges. Contemporary malaria control measures rely heavily on effective chemotherapy and insecticide control of vector mosquitoes. However, the spread of multidrug resistance and potential emergence of artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum make resistance management a high priority in the GMS. This situation is further worsened by the circulation of counterfeit and substandard artemisinin-related drugs. In most endemic areas of the GMS, P. falciparum and Plasmodium vivax coexist, and in recent malaria control history, P. vivax has demonstrated remarkable resilience to control measures. Deployment of the only registered drug (primaquine) for the radical cure of vivax malaria is severely undermined due to high prevalence of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency in target human populations. In the GMS, the dramatically different ecologies, diverse vector systems, and insecticide resistance render traditional mosquito control less efficient. Here we attempt to review the changing malaria epidemiology in the GMS, analyze the vector systems and patterns of malaria transmission, and identify the major challenges the malaria control community faces on its way to malaria elimination.

Malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion: heterogeneity and complexity

The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), comprised of six countries including Cambodia, China's Yunnan Province, Lao PDR, Myanmar (Burma), Thailand and Vietnam, is one of the most threatening foci of malaria. Since the initiation of the WHO's Mekong Malaria Program a decade ago, malaria situation in the GMS has greatly improved, reflected in the continuous decline in annual malaria incidence and deaths. However, as many nations are moving towards malaria elimination, the GMS nations still face great challenges. Malaria epidemiology in this region exhibits enormous geographical heterogeneity with Myanmar and Cambodia remaining high-burden countries. Within each country, malaria distribution is also patchy, exemplified by 'border malaria' and 'forest malaria' with high transmission occurring along international borders and in forests or forest fringes, respectively. 'Border malaria' is extremely difficult to monitor, and frequent malaria introductions by migratory human populations constitute a major threat to neighboring, malaria-eliminating countries. Therefore, coordination between neighboring countries is essential for malaria elimination from the entire region. In addition to these operational difficulties, malaria control in the GMS also encounters several technological challenges. Contemporary malaria control measures rely heavily on effective chemotherapy and insecticide control of vector mosquitoes. However, the spread of multidrug resistance and potential emergence of artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum make resistance management a high priority in the GMS. This situation is further worsened by the circulation of counterfeit and substandard artemisinin-related drugs. In most endemic areas of the GMS, P. falciparum and Plasmodium vivax coexist, and in recent malaria control history, P. vivax has demonstrated remarkable resilience to control measures. Deployment of the only registered drug (primaquine) for the radical cure of vivax malaria is severely undermined due to high prevalence of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency in target human populations. In the GMS, the dramatically different ecologies, diverse vector systems, and insecticide resistance render traditional mosquito control less efficient. Here we attempt to review the changing malaria epidemiology in the GMS, analyze the vector systems and patterns of malaria transmission, and identify the major challenges the malaria control community faces on its way to malaria elimination.

Sahel, savana, riverine and urban malaria in West Africa: Similar control policies with different outcomes

The study sites for the West African ICEMR are in three countries (The Gambia, Senegal, Mali) and are located within 750 km of each other. In addition, the National Malaria Control Programmes of these countries have virtually identical policies: (1) Artemisinin Combination Therapies (ACTs) for the treatment of symptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infection, (2) Long-Lasting Insecticide-treated bed Nets (LLINs) to reduce the Entomololgic Inoculation Rate (EIR), and (3) sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine for the Intermittent Preventive Treatment of malaria during pregnancy (IPTp). However, the prevalence of P. falciparum malaria and the status of malaria control vary markedly across the four sites with differences in the duration of the transmission season (from 4-5 to 10-11 months), the intensity of transmission (with EIRs from unmeasurably low to 4-5 per person per month), multiplicity of infection (from a mean of 1.0 to means of 2-5) and the status of malaria control (from areas which have virtually no control to areas that are at the threshold of malaria elimination). The most important priority is the need to obtain comparable data on the population-based prevalence, incidence and transmission of malaria before new candidate interventions or combinations of interventions are introduced for malaria control.

Malaria elimination in Malawi: research needs in highly endemic, poverty-stricken contexts

Malaria control in the impoverished, highly endemic settings of sub-Saharan Africa remains a major public health challenge. Successes have been achieved only where sustained, concerted, multi-pronged interventions have been instituted. As one of the world's poorest countries, Malawi experiences malaria incidence rates that have remained high despite a decade of gradually expanding and more intensive prevention efforts. The Malawi International Center for Excellence in Malaria Research (ICEMR) is beginning work to augment the knowledge base for reducing Plasmodium transmission and malaria morbidity and mortality. Among ICEMR goals, we intend to better assess patterns of infection and disease, and analyze transmission by Anopheles vector species in both urban and rural ecological settings. We will evaluate parasite population genetics and dynamics, transmission intensities and vector ecologies, social and environmental determinants of disease patterns and risk, and human-vector-parasite dynamics. Such context-specific information will help to focus appropriate prevention and treatment activities on efforts to control malaria in Malawi. In zones of intense and stable transmission, like Malawi, elimination poses particularly thorny challenges - and these challengers are different from those of traditional control and prevention activities. Working toward elimination will require knowledge of how various interventions impact on transmission as it approaches very low levels. At present, Malawi is faced with immediate, context-specific problems of scaling-up prevention and control activities simply to begin reducing infection and disease to tolerable levels. The research required to support these objectives is critically evaluated here.

Surveillance for malaria elimination in Swaziland: a national cross-sectional study using pooled PCR and serology

Background

To guide malaria elimination efforts in Swaziland and other countries, accurate assessments of transmission are critical. Pooled-PCR has potential to efficiently improve sensitivity to detect infections; serology may clarify temporal and spatial trends in exposure.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using a stratified two-stage cluster, cross-sectional design, subjects were recruited from the malaria endemic region of Swaziland. Blood was collected for rapid diagnostic testing (RDT), pooled PCR, and ELISA detecting antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum surface antigens. Of 4330 participants tested, three were RDT-positive yet false positives by PCR. Pooled PCR led to the identification of one P. falciparum and one P. malariae infection among RDT-negative participants. The P. falciparum-infected participant reported recent travel to Mozambique. Compared to performing individual testing on thousands of samples, PCR pooling reduced labor and consumable costs by 95.5%. Seropositivity was associated with age ≥20 years (11·7% vs 1·9%, P<0.001), recent travel to Mozambique (OR 4.4 [95% CI 1.0–19.0]) and residence in southeast Swaziland (RR 3.78, P<0.001).

Conclusions

The prevalence of malaria infection and recent exposure in Swaziland are extremely low, suggesting elimination is feasible. Future efforts should address imported malaria and target remaining foci of transmission. Pooled PCR and ELISA are valuable surveillance tools for guiding elimination efforts.

Changing landscape of malaria in China: progress and feasibility of malaria elimination

Large-scale malaria control activities in China have been conducted with significant success, since the launch of the nationwide malaria control program. This study investigated the malaria distribution in China, particularly in provinces with high risks. Spatial and temporal data were assembled for all endemic or historically endemic areas and combined to identify common patterns and to investigate the actual changes in the burden of malaria in the country. Data were analyzed and the progress in malaria elimination feasibility was discussed. The results indicated that the current distribution of malaria and vectors associated could provide evidence on the assessment of the feasibility of the malaria elimination in China.

Can we depend on case management to prevent re-establishment of P. falciparum malaria, after local interruption of transmission?

Recent declines in malaria burden in many parts of the world have prompted consideration of how interruption of Plasmodium falciparum transmission could be maintained, if achieved, and notably whether large-scale vector control could be replaced with surveillance. This information is essential for elimination feasibility assessments and planning. The risk of re-establishment of transmission depends mainly on vectorial capacity (receptivity), likely to rebound once vector control is removed, the rate of importation of infections (vulnerability), the capacity to detect and treat infections and the level of immunity in infected individuals. Timely detection and removal of new infections is likely to be critical to prevent re-establishment of transmission. We assess, through mathematical modeling and simulation, which levels of case detection and treatment (case management) are required to prevent re-establishment of transmission of P. falciparum after local interruption of transmission has been achieved, in settings with varying receptivity and vulnerability. We find that, even at rather low levels of receptivity, case management alone cannot reliably prevent re-establishment of P. falciparum malaria transmission in the face of medium to high importation rates. Thus, if vector control is to be discontinued, preventing the importations by controlling transmission in source areas will generally be necessary for preventing reintroduction in such settings, and cannot be substituted by very high levels of case management coverage.

Economic returns to investment in AIDS treatment in low and middle income countries

Since the early 2000s, aid organizations and developing country governments have invested heavily in AIDS treatment. By 2010, more than five million people began receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART)--yet each year, 2.7 million people are becoming newly infected and another two million are dying without ever having received treatment. As the need for treatment grows without commensurate increase in the amount of available resources, it is critical to assess the health and economic gains being realized from increasingly large investments in ART. This study estimates total program costs and compares them with selected economic benefits of ART, for the current cohort of patients whose treatment is cofinanced by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. At end 2011, 3.5 million patients in low and middle income countries will be receiving ART through treatment programs cofinanced by the Global Fund. Using 2009 ART prices and program costs, we estimate that the discounted resource needs required for maintaining this cohort are $14.2 billion for the period 2011-2020. This investment is expected to save 18.5 million life-years and return $12 to $34 billion through increased labor productivity, averted orphan care, and deferred medical treatment for opportunistic infections and end-of-life care. Under alternative assumptions regarding the labor productivity effects of HIV infection, AIDS disease, and ART, the monetary benefits range from 81 percent to 287 percent of program costs over the same period. These results suggest that, in addition to the large health gains generated, the economic benefits of treatment will substantially offset, and likely exceed, program costs within 10 years of investment.

Travel risk, malaria importation and malaria transmission in Zanzibar

The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Zanzibar has reached historic lows. Improving control requires quantifying malaria importation rates, identifying high-risk travelers, and assessing onwards transmission.Estimates of Zanzibar's importation rate were calculated through two independent methodologies. First, mobile phone usage data and ferry traffic between Zanzibar and mainland Tanzania were re-analyzed using a model of heterogeneous travel risk. Second, a dynamic mathematical model of importation and transmission rates was used.Zanzibar residents traveling to malaria endemic regions were estimated to contribute 1-15 times more imported cases than infected visitors. The malaria importation rate was estimated to be 1.6 incoming infections per 1,000 inhabitants per year. Local transmission was estimated too low to sustain transmission in most places.Malaria infections in Zanzibar largely result from imported malaria and subsequent transmission. Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination appears feasible by implementing control measures based on detecting imported malaria cases and controlling onward transmission.

Preventing the reintroduction of malaria in Mauritius: a programmatic and financial assessment

Sustaining elimination of malaria in areas with high receptivity and vulnerability will require effective strategies to prevent reestablishment of local transmission, yet there is a dearth of evidence about this phase. Mauritius offers a uniquely informative history, with elimination of local transmission in 1969, re-emergence in 1975, and second elimination in 1998. Towards this end, Mauritius's elimination and prevention of reintroduction (POR) programs were analyzed via a comprehensive review of literature and government documents, supplemented by program observation and interviews with policy makers and program personnel. The impact of the country's most costly intervention, a passenger screening program, was assessed quantitatively using simulation modeling.On average, Mauritius spent $4.43 per capita per year (pcpy) during its second elimination campaign from 1982 to 1988. The country currently spends $2.06 pcpy on its POR program that includes robust surveillance, routine vector control, and prompt and effective treatment and response. Thirty-five percent of POR costs are for a passenger screening program. Modeling suggests that the estimated 14% of imported malaria infections identified by this program reduces the annual risk of indigenous transmission by approximately 2%. Of cases missed by the initial passenger screening program, 49% were estimated to be identified by passive or reactive case detection, leaving an estimated 3.1 unidentified imported infections per 100,000 inhabitants per year.The Mauritius experience indicates that ongoing intervention, strong leadership, and substantial predictable funding are critical to consistently prevent the reestablishment of malaria. Sustained vigilance is critical considering Mauritius's enabling conditions. Although the cost of POR is below that of elimination, annual per capita spending remains at levels that are likely infeasible for countries with lower overall health spending. Countries currently embarking on elimination should quantify and plan for potentially similar POR operations and costs.

Conquering malaria: enhancing the impact of effective interventions towards elimination in the diverse and changing epidemiology

Malaria remains a major global disease burden causing just under a million deaths each year, mainly of children and pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa. It consumes up to 40% of public health expenditure of these poor countries, causing in Africa US$ 12 billion in lost GDP every year. This should not be acceptable since malaria is preventable, and there is clear evidence that optimal use of current tools can reduce much of the suffering and deaths. Three major factors allowing this to happen include: (i) inadequate funding to implement a massive initial surge, to achieve universal coverage, (ii) weak country capacities for rapid scale up of such interventions and little or no use of evidence-guided methods, and (iii) insufficient coordination of efforts between national programmes, donors and technical agencies in strategic planning for sustaining gains and in building capacity. We discuss the importance of the surge and the kind of approaches that would accelerate the pace toward elimination and eventual eradication.

Establishing the extent of malaria transmission and challenges facing pre-elimination in the Republic of Djibouti

Background

Countries aiming for malaria elimination require a detailed understanding of the current intensity of malaria transmission within their national borders. National household sample surveys are now being used to define infection prevalence but these are less efficient in areas of exceptionally low endemicity. Here we present the results of a national malaria indicator survey in the Republic of Djibouti, the first in sub-Saharan Africa to combine parasitological and serological markers of malaria, to evaluate the extent of transmission in the country and explore the potential for elimination.

Methods

A national cross-sectional household survey was undertaken from December 2008 to January 2009. A finger prick blood sample was taken from randomly selected participants of all ages to examine for parasitaemia using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and confirmed using Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). Blood spots were also collected on filter paper and subsequently used to evaluate the presence of serological markers (combined AMA-1 and MSP-1₁₉) of Plasmodium falciparum exposure. Multivariate regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors for P. falciparum infection and/or exposure. The Getis-Ord G-statistic was used to assess spatial heterogeneity of combined infections and serological markers.

Results

A total of 7151 individuals were tested using RDTs of which only 42 (0.5%) were positive for P. falciparum infections and confirmed by PCR. Filter paper blood spots were collected for 5605 individuals. Of these 4769 showed concordant optical density results and were retained in subsequent analysis. Overall P. falciparum sero-prevalence was 9.9% (517/4769) for all ages; 6.9% (46/649) in children under the age of five years; and 14.2% (76/510) in the oldest age group (≥ 50 years). The combined infection and/or antibody prevalence was 10.5% (550/4769) and varied from 8.1% to 14.1% but overall regional differences were not statistically significant (χ² = 33.98, p = 0.3144). Increasing age (p < 0.001) and decreasing household wealth status (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with increasing combined P. falciparum infection and/or antibody prevalence. Significant P. falciparum hot spots were observed in Dikhil region.

Conclusion

Malaria transmission in the Republic of Djibouti is very low across all regions with evidence of micro-epidemiological heterogeneity and limited recent transmission. It would seem that the Republic of Djibouti has a biologically feasible set of pre-conditions for elimination, however, the operational feasibility and the potential risks to elimination posed by P. vivax and human population movement across the sub-region remain to be properly established.

International advocacy against DDT and other public health insecticides for malaria control

A new international effort to control/eradicate malaria is accompanied by suggestions that malaria can be controlled without the use of dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) and other insecticides. We review the underlying science of claims publicized by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the United Nations Environment Programme, and the Stockholm Convention Secretariat (the Secretariat). Their claims stem from a $14 million GEF project that was conducted from 2003 to 2008 in Mexico and seven countries of Central America. Objectives, experimental design, analyses, and project accomplishments are described. So-called environmentally sound interventions (GEF interventions) that excluded insecticides were implemented in demonstration areas in eight countries. Efficacy of interventions was evaluated by comparing malaria rates in demonstration areas (n = 202) with those in control areas (n = 51), all in high malaria risk areas. There were no statistically significant reductions in malaria rates in demonstration areas compared with controls. This was true across all eight countries. Broad use of antimalarial drugs was the primary method of malaria suppression in the eight countries, but this method was not a GEF intervention. Ultimately statistics favoring efficacy of "environmentally sound" methods of malaria control were obtained by comparing malaria cases in demonstration areas for 2004 with cases in 2007, and we explain why these comparisons are not valid. In conclusion, claims that GEF interventions effectively reduced malaria in Mexico and seven countries of Central America are not supported by existing data or the results of epidemiological analyses. The claims are being used to justify the Secretariat's plan to eliminate DDT production by 2017. DDT is still needed for effective control of malaria, and its elimination could have significant consequences for people in malaria endemic countries.

A framework for assessing the feasibility of malaria elimination

The recent scale-up of malaria interventions, the ensuing reductions in the malaria burden, and reinvigorated discussions about global eradication have led many countries to consider malaria elimination as an alternative to maintaining control measures indefinitely. Evidence-based guidance to help countries weigh their options is thus urgently needed. A quantitative feasibility assessment that balances the epidemiological situation in a region, the strength of the public health system, the resource constraints, and the status of malaria control in neighboring areas can serve as the basis for robust, long-term strategic planning. Such a malaria elimination feasibility assessment was recently prepared for the Minister of Health in Zanzibar. Based on the Zanzibar experience, a framework is proposed along three axes that assess the technical requirements to achieve and maintain elimination, the operational capacity of the malaria programme and the public health system to meet those requirements, and the feasibility of funding the necessary programmes over time. Key quantitative and qualitative metrics related to each component of the assessment are described here along with the process of collecting data and interpreting the results. Although further field testing, validation, and methodological improvements will be required to ensure applicability in different epidemiological settings, the result is a flexible, rational methodology for weighing different strategic options that can be applied in a variety of contexts to establish data-driven strategic plans.

Shrinking the malaria map: progress and prospects

In the past 150 years, roughly half of the countries in the world eliminated malaria. Nowadays, there are 99 endemic countries-67 are controlling malaria and 32 are pursuing an elimination strategy. This four-part Series presents evidence about the technical, operational, and financial dimensions of malaria elimination. The first paper in this Series reviews definitions of elimination and the state that precedes it: controlled low-endemic malaria. Feasibility assessments are described as a crucial step for a country transitioning from controlled low-endemic malaria to elimination. Characteristics of the 32 malaria-eliminating countries are presented, and contrasted with countries that pursued elimination in the past. Challenges and risks of elimination are presented, including Plasmodium vivax, resistance in the parasite and mosquito populations, and potential resurgence if investment and vigilance decrease. The benefits of elimination are outlined, specifically elimination as a regional and global public good. Priorities for the next decade are described.

Ranking of elimination feasibility between malaria-endemic countries

Experience gained from the Global Malaria Eradication Program (1955-72) identified a set of shared technical and operational factors that enabled some countries to successfully eliminate malaria. Spatial data for these factors were assembled for all malaria-endemic countries and combined to provide an objective, relative ranking of countries by technical, operational, and combined elimination feasibility. The analysis was done separately for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, and the limitations of the approach were discussed. The relative rankings suggested that malaria elimination would be most feasible in countries in the Americas and Asia, and least feasible in countries in central and west Africa. The results differed when feasibility was measured by technical or operational factors, highlighting the different types of challenge faced by each country. The results are not intended to be prescriptive, predictive, or to provide absolute assessments of feasibility, but they do show that spatial information is available to facilitate evidence-based assessments of the relative feasibility of malaria elimination by country that can be rapidly updated.