Consequences of range contractions and range shifts on molecular diversity

Selecting among Alternative Scenarios of Human Evolution by Simulated Genetic Gradients

Selecting among alternative scenarios of human evolution is nowadays a common methodology to investigate the history of our species. This strategy is usually based on computer simulations of genetic data under different evolutionary scenarios, followed by a fitting of the simulated data with the real data. A recent trend in the investigation of ancestral evolutionary processes of modern humans is the application of genetic gradients as a measure of fitting, since evolutionary processes such as range expansions, range contractions, and population admixture (among others) can lead to different genetic gradients. In addition, this strategy allows the analysis of the genetic causes of the observed genetic gradients. Here, we review recent findings on the selection among alternative scenarios of human evolution based on simulated genetic gradients, including pros and cons. First, we describe common methodologies to simulate genetic gradients and apply them to select among alternative scenarios of human evolution. Next, we review previous studies on the influence of range expansions, population admixture, last glacial period, and migration with long-distance dispersal on genetic gradients for some regions of the world. Finally, we discuss this analytical approach, including technical limitations, required improvements, and advice. Although here we focus on human evolution, this approach could be extended to study other species.

Examining the interglacial high-elevation refugia scenario in East Asian subtropical mountain systems with the frog species Leptobrachium liui

The effects of Quaternary climatic oscillations on the distributions of organisms in different parts of the world are not equally well understood, limiting the ability to understand the determinants of biodiversity. Compared with the mountain regions in southern Europe and southwestern North America, such effects on high-elevation species in the East Asian subtropical mountain systems located in southern and southeastern China have seldom been addressed. In this study, using Leptobrachium liui (Megophryidae), we made one of the earliest attempts to examine the interglacial high-elevation refugia scenario in these Asian mountains. Based on our current understanding of the study system, we formulated a hypothesis that these frogs of western origin were distributed more widely and continuously during glacial phases, allowing eastward dispersal, and that they are currently isolated in interglacial refugia at higher elevations. Microsatellite data and mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data were obtained with extensive sampling followed by the synthesis of phylogeographic and population genetic analyses and modeling of the species distribution. The analyses revealed a sequential eastward divergence of microsatellite clusters and gene lineages accompanied by a decline in genetic diversity. Molecular dating estimates revealed divergence events in the Pleistocene, and a reduction in local populations was inferred to have occurred at a time comparable to the end of the last glacial. Strong genetic isolation by distance reflecting a more continuous historical distribution was detected. Furthermore, environmental niche models inferred a wide planar distribution during the last glacial maximum, providing further support for the hypothesis.

The road to evolutionary success: insights from the demographic history of an Amazonian palm

Evolutionary success, as demonstrated by high abundance and a wide geographical range, is related to genetic variation and historical demography. Here we assess how climatic change during the Quaternary influenced the demography and distribution of the Neotropical swamp palm Mauritia flexuosa. Using microsatellite loci and coalescent analyses we examined how demographical dynamics affected genetic diversity, effective population size and connectivity through time and space. Mauritia flexuosa presents significant genetic differentiation between the Amazonian and Cerrado biomes and among different river basins. Amazonian lineages are ancient compared to lineages from the Cerrado, a pattern corroborated using the fossil pollen record, where the species was absent from the Cerrado during the cold and dry periods of the last glacial cycles, then returned during the wet, interglacial phases. Coalescent simulations show that the pattern of observed genetic diversity for M. flexuosa is most likely due to a range retraction during the Last Glacial Maximum, leading to multiple refugia and resulting in high differentiation between Amazonian and Cerrado biomes. Isolation-by-distance and by-environment also shaped the distribution and evolutionary success of M. flexuosa. Our study provides new insights into the historical factors that affected geographical distribution and structure genetic diversity, contributing to long-term evolutionary success.

Consequences of diverse evolutionary processes on american genetic gradients of modern humans

European genetic gradients of modern humans were initially interpreted as a consequence of the demic diffusion of expanding Neolithic farmers. However, recent studies showed that these gradients may also be influenced by other evolutionary processes such as population admixture or range contractions. Genetic gradients were observed in the Americas, although their specific evolutionary causes were not investigated. Here we extended the approach used to study genetic gradients in Europe to analyze the influence of diverse evolutionary scenarios on American genetic gradients. Using extensive computer simulations, we evaluated the impact of (i) admixture between expansion waves of modern humans, (ii) the presence of ice-sheets during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and (iii) long-distance dispersal (LDD) events, on the genetic gradients (detected by principal component analysis) of the entire continent, North America and South America. The specific simulation of North and South America showed that genetic gradients are usually orthogonal to the direction of range expansions-either expansions from Bering or posterior re-expansions to recolonize northern regions after ice sheets melting-and we suggest that they result from allele surfing processes. Conversely, our results on the entire continent show a northwest-southeast gradient obtained with any scenario, which we interpreted as a consequence of isolation by distance along the long length of the continent. These findings suggest that distinct genetic gradients can be detected at different regions of the Americas and that subcontinent regions present gradients more sensible to evolutionary and environmental factors (such as LDD and the LGM) than the whole continent.

Genetic and Historical Colonization Analyses of an Endemic Savanna Tree, Qualea grandiflora, Reveal Ancient Connections Between Amazonian Savannas and Cerrado Core

The evolutionary processes underlying the high diversity and endemism in the Cerrado, the most extensive Neotropical savanna, remain unclear, including the factors promoting the presence and evolution of savanna enclaves in the Amazon forest. In this study, we investigated the effects of past climate changes on genetic diversity, dynamics of species range and the historical connections between the savanna enclaves and Cerrado core for Qualea grandiflora, a tree species widely distributed in the biome. Totally, 40 populations distributed in the Cerrado core and Amazon savannas were analyzed using chloroplast and nuclear DNA sequences. We used phylogeographic, coalescent and ecological niche modeling approaches. Genetic data revealed a phylogeographic structure shaped by Pleistocene climatic oscillations. An eastern-western split in the Cerrado core was observed. The central portion of the Cerrado core harbored most of the sampled diversity for cpDNA. Ecological niche models predicted the presence of a large historical refuge in this region and multiple small refuges in peripheral areas. Relaxed Random Walk (RRW) models indicated the ancestral population in the north-western border of the central portion of the Cerrado core and cyclical dynamics of colonization related to Pleistocene climatic oscillations. Central and western ancient connections between Cerrado core and Amazonian savannas were observed. No evidence of connections among the Amazonian savannas was detected. Our study highlights the importance of Pleistocene climatic oscillations for structuring the genetic diversity of Q. grandiflora and complex evolutionary history of ecotonal areas in the Cerrado. Our results do not support the recent replacement of a large area in the Amazon forest by savanna vegetation. The Amazonian savannas appear to be fragmented and isolated from each other, evolving independently a long ago.

Population genetic signatures of a climate change driven marine range extension

Shifts in species distribution, or 'range shifts', are one of the most commonly documented responses to ocean warming, with important consequences for the function and structure of ecosystems, and for socio-economic activities. Understanding the genetic signatures of range shifts can help build our knowledge of the capacity of species to establish and persist in colonised areas. Here, seven microsatellite loci were used to examine the population connectivity, genetic structure and diversity of Octopus tetricus, which has extended its distribution several hundred kilometres polewards associated with the southwards extension of the warm East Australian Current along south-eastern Australia. The historical distribution and the range extension zones had significant genetic differences but levels of genetic diversity were comparable. The population in the range extension zone was sub-structured, contained relatively high levels of self-recruitment and was sourced by migrants from along the entire geographic distribution. Genetic bottlenecks and changes in population size were detected throughout the range extension axis. Persistent gene flow from throughout the historical zone and moderate genetic diversity may buffer the genetic bottlenecks and favour the range extension of O. tetricus. These characteristics may aid adaptation, establishment, and long-term persistence of the population in the range extension zone.

Phylogeography and Ecological Niche Modeling Reveal Reduced Genetic Diversity and Colonization Patterns of Skunk Cabbage (Symplocarpus foetidus; Araceae) From Glacial Refugia in Eastern North America

Alternating glacial and interglacial periods during the Quaternary have dramatically affected the distribution and population genetic structure of plant and animal species throughout the northern hemisphere. Surprisingly, little is known about the post-glacial recolonization history of wetland herbaceous perennials that are widely distributed in the understory of deciduous or mixed deciduous-evergreen forests in eastern North America. In this study, we investigated infraspecific variation among 32 populations of skunk cabbage, Symplocarpus foetidus, to test the hypothesis that the extant species diversity of skunk cabbage is the result of a post-glacial range expansion from southern refugia during the Quaternary Ice Age. A total of 4041 base pairs (bp) of the chloroplast intergenic spacer region (cpDNA) was sequenced from 485 individuals sampled from glaciated (18 populations, 275 individuals) and unglaciated (14 populations, 210 individuals) regions east and west of the Appalachian Mountains. Haplotype number, haplotype diversity, and nucleotide diversity were calculated, and genetic variation within and among populations was assessed by analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA). The geographic pattern of genetic differentiation was further investigated with a spatial analysis of molecular variance (SAMOVA). A total of eight haplotypes and three genetic groups (SAMOVA) were recovered and a much higher haplotype number (eight haplotypes) and haplotype diversity (0.7425) was observed in unglaciated compared to glaciated populations (five haplotypes, haplotype diversity = 0.6099). All haplotypes found in glaciated regions represented a subset of haplotypes found in unglaciated regions. Haplotypes of S. foetidus likely diverged during the Tertiary (mid-Miocene and late Pliocene), predating the last glacial maximum (LGM). Predictions based on ecological niche modeling (ENM) suggested that there was considerably less suitable habitat for skunk cabbage during the LGM, and the habitat range was further south compared to the current distribution. Reduced variation and a subset of haplotypes in glaciated regions suggest a founder effect associated with range expansion via long-distance seed dispersal. Our results do not support the "Driftless Area" scenario for the northern refugium, rather the data suggest a "Northeastern" refugium near the southernmost extent of the LGM.

Comparison of the Chinese bamboo partridge and red Junglefowl genome sequences highlights the importance of demography in genome evolution

BACKGROUND

Recent large-scale whole genome sequencing efforts in birds have elucidated broad patterns of avian phylogeny and genome evolution. However, despite the great interest in economically important phasianids like Gallus gallus (Red Junglefowl, the progenitor of the chicken), we know little about the genomes of closely related species. Gallus gallus is highly sexually dichromatic and polygynous, but its sister genus, Bambusicola, is smaller, sexually monomorphic, and monogamous with biparental care. We sequenced the genome of Bambusicola thoracicus (Chinese Bamboo Partridge) using a single insert library to test hypotheses about genome evolution in galliforms. Selection acting at the phenotypic level could result in more evidence of positive selection in the Gallus genome than in Bambusicola. However, the historical range size of Bambusicola was likely smaller than Gallus, and demographic effects could lead to higher rates of nonsynonymous substitution in Bambusicola than in Gallus.

RESULTS

We generated a genome assembly suitable for evolutionary analyses. We examined the impact of selection on coding regions by examining shifts in the average nonsynonymous to synonymous rate ratio (dN/dS) and the proportion of sites subject to episodic positive selection. We observed elevated dN/dS in Bambusicola relative to Gallus, which is consistent with our hypothesis that demographic effects may be important drivers of genome evolution in Bambusicola. We also demonstrated that alignment error can greatly inflate estimates of the number of genes that experienced episodic positive selection and heterogeneity in dN/dS. However, overall patterns of molecular evolution were robust to alignment uncertainty. Bambusicola thoracicus has higher estimates of heterozygosity than Gallus gallus, possibly due to migration events over the past 100,000 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results emphasized the importance of demographic processes in generating the patterns of variation between Bambusicola and Gallus. We also demonstrated that genome assemblies generated using a single library can provide valuable insights into avian evolutionary history and found that it is important to account for alignment uncertainty in evolutionary inferences from draft genomes.

Social interactions predict genetic diversification: an experimental manipulation in shorebirds

Mating strategy and social behavior influence gene flow and hence affect levels of genetic differentiation and potentially speciation. Previous genetic analyses of closely related plovers Charadrius spp. found strikingly different population genetic structure in Madagascar: Kittlitz’s plovers are spatially homogenous whereas white-fronted plovers have well segregated and geographically distinct populations. Here, we test the hypotheses that Kittlitz’s plovers are spatially interconnected and have extensive social interactions that facilitate gene flow, whereas white-fronted plovers are spatially discrete and have limited social interactions. By experimentally removing mates from breeding pairs and observing the movements of mate-searching plovers in both species, we compare the spatial behavior of Kittlitz’s and white-fronted plovers within a breeding season. The behavior of experimental birds was largely consistent with expectations: Kittlitz’s plovers travelled further, sought new mates in larger areas, and interacted with more individuals than white-fronted plovers, however there was no difference in breeding dispersal. These results suggest that mating strategies, through spatial behavior and social interactions, are predictors of gene flow and thus genetic differentiation and speciation. Our study highlights the importance of using social behavior to understand gene flow. However, further work is needed to investigate the relative importance of social structure, as well as intra- and inter-season dispersal, in influencing the genetic structures of populations.

Biogeographic constraints to marine conservation in a changing climate

The siting of protected areas to achieve management and conservation objectives draws heavily on biogeographic concepts of the spatial distribution and connectivity of species. However, the marine protected area (MPA) literature rarely acknowledges how biogeographic theories underpin MPA and MPA network design. We review which theories from biogeography have been incorporated into marine spatial planning and which relevant concepts have yet to be translated to inform the next generation of design principles. This biogeographic perspective will only become more relevant as climate change amplifies these spatial and temporal dynamics, and as species begin to shift in and out of existing MPAs. The scale of climate velocities predicted for the 21st century dwarfs all but the largest MPAs currently in place, raising the possibility that in coming decades many MPAs will no longer contain the species or assemblages they were established to protect. We present a number of design elements that could improve the success of MPAs and MPA networks in light of biogeographic processes and climate change. Biogeographically informed MPA networks of the future may resemble the habitat corridors currently being considered for many terrestrial regions.

Demographic mechanisms underpinning genetic assimilation of remnant groups of a large carnivore

Current range expansions of large terrestrial carnivores are occurring following human-induced range contraction. Contractions are often incomplete, leaving small remnant groups in refugia throughout the former range. Little is known about the underlying ecological and evolutionary processes that influence how remnant groups are affected during range expansion. We used data from a spatially explicit, long-term genetic sampling effort of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), USA, to identify the demographic processes underlying spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity. We conducted parentage analysis to evaluate how reproductive success and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal patterns of genetic diversity in remnant groups of grizzly bears existing in the southwestern (SW), southeastern (SE) and east-central (EC) regions of the NCDE. A few reproductively dominant individuals and local inbreeding caused low genetic diversity in peripheral regions that may have persisted for multiple generations before eroding rapidly (approx. one generation) during population expansion. Our results highlight that individual-level genetic and reproductive dynamics play critical roles during genetic assimilation, and show that spatial patterns of genetic diversity on the leading edge of an expansion may result from historical demographic patterns that are highly ephemeral.

Ice age unfrozen: severe effect of the last interglacial, not glacial, climate change on East Asian avifauna

BACKGROUND

The glacial-interglacial cycles in the Pleistocene caused repeated range expansion and contraction of species in several regions in the world. However, it remains uncertain whether such climate oscillations had similar impact on East Asian biota, despite its widely recognized importance in global biodiversity. Here we use both molecular and ecological niche profiles on 11 East Asian avian species with various elevational ranges to reveal their response to the late Pleistocene climate changes.

RESULTS

The ecological niche models (ENM) consistently showed that these avian species might substantially contract their ranges to the south during the Last Interglacial period (LIG) and expanded their northern range margins through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), leading to the LGM ranges observed for all 11 species. Consistently, coalescent simulations based on 25-30 nuclear genes retrieved signatures of significant population growth through the last glacial period across all species studied. Climate statistics suggested that high climatic variability during the LIG and a relatively mild climate at the LGM potentially explained the historical population dynamics of these birds.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study based on multiple species and both lines of ecological niche profiles and genetic data to characterize the unique response of East Asian biota to late Pleistocene climate. The present study highlights regional differences in the evolutionary consequence of climate change during the last glacial cycle and implies that global warming might pose a great risk to species in this region given potentially higher climatic variation in the future analogous to that during the LIG.

Inferring the demographic history of an oligophagous grasshopper: Effects of climatic niche stability and host-plant distribution

Understanding the consequences of past environmental changes on the abiotic and biotic components of the landscape and deciphering their impacts on the demographic trajectories of species is a major issue in evolutionary biogeography. In this study, we combine nuclear and mitochondrial genetic data to study the phylogeographical structure and lineage-specific demographic histories of the scrub-legume grasshopper (Chorthippus binotatus binotatus), a montane taxon distributed in the Iberian Peninsula and France that exclusively feeds on certain scrub-legume species. Genetic data and paleo-distribution modelling indicate the presence of four main lineages that seem to have diverged in allopatry and long-term persisted in Iberian and French refugia since the Mid Pleistocene. Comparisons of different demographic hypotheses in an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework supported a population bottleneck in the northwestern French clade and paleo-distribution modelling indicate that the populations of this lineage have experienced more severe environmental fluctuations during the last 21 000 years than those from the Iberian Peninsula. Accordingly, we found that nuclear genetic diversity of the populations of scrub-legume grasshopper is positively associated with local stability of suitable habitats defined by both Pleistocene climate changes and historical distributional shifts of host-plant species. Overall, our study highlights the importance of integrating the potential effects of abiotic (i.e. climate and geography) and biotic components (i.e. inter-specific interactions) into the study of the evolutionary and demographic history of specialist taxa with narrow ecological requirements.

Two disjunct Pleistocene populations and anisotropic postglacial expansion shaped the current genetic structure of the relict plant Amborella trichopoda

Past climate fluctuations shaped the population dynamics of organisms in space and time, and have impacted their present intra-specific genetic structure. Demo-genetic modelling allows inferring the way past demographic and migration dynamics have determined this structure. Amborella trichopoda is an emblematic relict plant endemic to New Caledonia, widely distributed in the understory of non-ultramafic rainforests. We assessed the influence of the last glacial climates on the demographic history and the paleo-distribution of 12 Amborella populations covering the whole current distribution. We performed coalescent genetic modelling of these dynamics, based on both whole-genome resequencing and microsatellite genotyping data. We found that the two main genetic groups of Amborella were shaped by the divergence of two ancestral populations during the last glacial maximum. From 12,800 years BP, the South ancestral population has expanded 6.3-fold while the size of the North population has remained stable. Recent asymmetric gene flow between the groups further contributed to the phylogeographical pattern. Spatially explicit coalescent modelling allowed us to estimate the location of ancestral populations with good accuracy (< 22 km) and provided indications regarding the mid-elevation pathways that facilitated post-glacial expansion.

The roles of barriers, refugia, and chromosomal clines underlying diversification in Atlantic Forest social wasps

Phylogeographic studies have sought to explain the genetic imprints of historical climatic changes and geographic barriers within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (AF) biota, and consequently two processes of diversification (refugia and barriers) have been proposed. Additionally, there is evidence that eustatic changes influenced the biogeographic history of the AF. Here we evaluate these contrasting diversification processes using two AF social wasp species – the mid-montane Synoeca cyanea and the lowland Synoeca aff. septentrionalis. We analyzed several sources of data including multilocus DNA sequence, climatic niche models and chromosomal features. We find support for idiosyncratic phylogeographic patterns between these wasps, involving different levels of population structure and genetic diversity, contrary suitable climatic conditions during the last glaciation, and contrasting historical movements along the AF. Our data indicate that neotectonics and refugia played distinct roles in shaping the genetic structure of these wasps. However, we argue that eustatic changes influenced the demographic expansion but not population structure in AF biota. Notably, these wasps exhibited chromosomal clines, involving chromosome number and decreasing of GC content, latitudinally oriented along the AF. Together, these results reinforce the need to consider individual organismal histories and indicate that barriers and refugia are significant factors in understanding AF evolution.

Investigating the Genetic Diversity, Population Differentiation and Population Dynamics of Cycas segmentifida (Cycadaceae) Endemic to Southwest China by Multiple Molecular Markers

Climate change, species dispersal ability and habitat fragmentation are major factors influencing species distribution and genetic diversity, especially for the range-restricted and threatened taxa. Here, using four sequences of chloroplast DNAs (cpDNAs), three nuclear genes (nDNAs) and 12 nuclear microsatellites (SSRs), we investigated the genetic diversity, genetic structure, divergence time and population dynamics of Cycas segmentifida D. Y. Wang and C. Y. Deng, a threatened cycad species endemic to Southwest China. High levels of genetic diversity and genetic differentiation were revealed in C. segmentifida. Haplotypes of networks showed two evolutionary units in C. segmentifida, with the exception of the nuclear gene GTP network. Meanwhile, the UPGMA tree, structure and PCoA analyses suggested that 14 populations of C. segmentifida were divided into two clades. There was significant effect of isolation by distance (IBD) in this species. However, this species did not display a significant phylogeographic structure. The divergence time estimation suggested that its haplotypes diverged during the Middle Pleistocene. Additionally, the population dynamics inferred from different DNA sequences analyses were discordant. Bottleneck analysis showed that populations of C. segmentifida did not experience any recent bottleneck effect, but rather pointed to a contraction of its effective population size over time. Furthermore, our results suggested that the population BM which held an intact population structure and occupied undisturbed habitat was at the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, implying that this population is a free-mating system. These genetic features provide important information for the sustainable management of C. segmentifida.

Shifting Quaternary migration patterns in the Bahamian archipelago: Evidence from the Zamia pumila complex at the northern limits of the Caribbean island biodiversity hotspot

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

The Bahamas archipelago is formed by young, tectonically stable carbonate banks that harbor direct geological evidence of global ice-volume changes. We sought to detect signatures of major changes on gene flow patterns and reconstruct the phylogeographic history of the monophyletic Zamia pumila complex across the Bahamas.

METHODS

Nuclear molecular markers with both high and low mutation rates were used to capture two different time scale signatures and test several gene flow and demographic hypotheses.

KEY RESULTS

Single-copy nuclear genes unveiled apparent ancestral admixture on Andros, suggesting a significant role of this island as main hub of diversity of the archipelago. We detected demographic and spatial expansion of the Zamia pumila complex on both paleo-provinces around the Piacenzian (Pliocene)/Gelasian (Pleistocene). Populations evidenced signatures of different migration models that have occurred at two different times. Populations on Long Island (Z. lucayana) may either represent a secondary colonization of the Bahamas by Zamia or a rapid and early-divergence event of at least one population on the Bahamas.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite changes in migration patterns with global climate, expected heterozygosity with both marker systems remains within the range reported for cycads, but with significant levels of increased inbreeding detected by the microsatellites. This finding is likely associated with reduced gene flow between and within paleo-provinces, accompanied by genetic drift, as rising seas enforced isolation. Our study highlights the importance of the maintenance of the predominant direction of genetic exchange and the role of overseas dispersion among the islands during climate oscillations.

Integrative inference of population history in the Ibero-Maghrebian endemic Pleurodeles waltl (Salamandridae)

Inference of population histories from the molecular signatures of past demographic processes is challenging, but recent methodological advances in species distribution models and their integration in time-calibrated phylogeographic studies allow detailed reconstruction of complex biogeographic scenarios. We apply an integrative approach to infer the evolutionary history of the Iberian ribbed newt (Pleurodeles waltl), an Ibero-Maghrebian endemic with populations north and south of the Strait of Gibraltar. We analyzed an extensive multilocus dataset (mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences and ten polymorphic microsatellite loci) and found a deep east-west phylogeographic break in Iberian populations dating back to the Plio-Pleistocene. This break is inferred to result from vicariance associated with the formation of the Guadalquivir river basin. In contrast with previous studies, North African populations showed exclusive mtDNA haplotypes, and formed a monophyletic clade within the Eastern Iberian lineage in the mtDNA genealogy. On the other hand, microsatellites failed to recover Moroccan populations as a differentiated genetic cluster. This is interpreted to result from post-divergence gene flow based on the results of IMA2 and Migrate analyses. Thus, Moroccan populations would have originated after overseas dispersal from the Iberian Peninsula in the Pleistocene, with subsequent gene flow in more recent times, implying at least two trans-marine dispersal events. We modeled the distribution of the species and of each lineage, and projected these models back in time to infer climatically favourable areas during the mid-Holocene, the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the last interglacial (LIG), to reconstruct more recent population dynamics. We found minor differences in climatic favourability across lineages, suggesting intraspecific niche conservatism. Genetic diversity was significantly correlated with the intersection of environmental favourability in the LIG and LGM, indicating that populations of P. waltl are genetically more diverse in regions that have remained environmentally favourable through the last glacial cycle, particularly southern Iberia and northern Morocco. This study provides novel insights into the relative roles of geology and climate on the biogeography of a biodiversity hotspot.

Genetic structure and demographic history of Cycas chenii (Cycadaceae), an endangered species with extremely small populations

Geological activities and climate oscillations during the Quaternary period profoundly impacted the distribution of species in Southwest China. Some plant species may be harbored in refugia, such as the dry-hot valleys of Southwest China. Cycas chenii X. Gong & W. Zhou, a critically endangered cycad species, which grows under the canopy in subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests along the upstream drainage area of the Red River, is endemic to this refugium. In this study, 60 individuals of C. chenii collected from six populations were analyzed by sequencing two chloroplast intergenic spacers (cpDNA: psbA-trnH and trnL-trnF) and two nuclear genes (PHYP and RBP-1). Results showed high genetic diversity at the species level, but low within-population genetic diversity and high interpopulation genetic differentiation. A Bayesian phylogenetic tree based on cpDNA showed that five chloroplast haplotypes were clustered into two clades, which corresponds to the division of the western and eastern bank of the Red River. These data indicate a possible role for the Red River as a geographic barrier to gene flow in C. chenii. Based on our findings, we propose appropriate in situ and ex situ conservation strategies for C. chenii.

Quaternary climate change drives allo-peripatric speciation and refugial divergence in the Dysosma versipellis-pleiantha complex from different forest types in China

Subtropical China harbours the world's most diverse temperate flora, but little is known about the roles of geographical and eco-climatic factors underlying the region's exceptionally high levels of species diversity and endemism. Here we address this key question by investigating the spatio-temporal and ecological processes of divergence within the Dysosma versipellis-pleiantha species complex, endemic to subtropical China. Our cpDNA phylogeny showed that this monophyletic group of understory herbs is derived from a Late Pliocene ancestor of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP)/Southwest China. Genetic and ENM data in conjunction with niche differentiation analyses support that the early divergence of D. versipellis and D. pleiantha proceeded through allo-peripatric speciation, possibly triggered by Early Pleistocene climate change, while subsequent climate-induced cycles of range contractions/expansions enhanced the eco-geographical isolation of both taxa. Furthermore, modelling of population-genetic data indicated that major lineage divergences within D. versipellis likely resulted from long-term allopatric population isolation in multiple localized refugia over the last glacial/interglacial periods, and which in turn fostered endemic species formation (D. difformis, D. majoensis) from within D. versipellis in Southwest China. These findings point to an overriding role of Quaternary climate change in triggering essentially allopatric (incipient) speciation in this group of forest-restricted plant species in subtropical China.

Population Genetic Differentiation and Taxonomy of Three Closely Related Species of Saxifraga (Saxifragaceae) from Southern Tibet and the Hengduan Mountains

The effects of rapid, recent uplift of the Hengduan Mountains on evolution and diversification of young floristic lineages still remain unclear. Here, we investigate diversification of three closely related Saxifraga species with a distribution restricted to the Hengduan Mountains (HM) and southern Tibet, and comment on their taxonomy based on molecular evidence. Three chloroplast DNA fragments (rbcL, trnL-F, trnS-G) and the nuclear ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS) were employed to study genetic structure across 104 individuals from 12 populations of Saxifraga umbellulata, S. pasumensis, and S. banmaensis. Chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) phylogenies revealed two well supported clades, corresponding to S. umbellulata and S. pasumensis plus S. banmaensis. Topology of the ITS phylogeny was largely congruent with that generated from cpDNA haplotypes, but with minor conflicts which might be caused by incomplete lineage sorting. Analyses of molecular variance of both cpDNA and ITS datasets revealed that most variation was held between S. pasumensis s.l. (with S. banmaensis) and S. umbellulata (92.31% for cpDNA; 69.78% for ITS), suggesting a high degree of genetic divergence between them. Molecular clock analysis based on ITS dataset suggested that the divergence between S. pasumensis s.l. and S. umbellulata can be dated to 8.50 Ma, probably a result of vicariant allopatric diversification associated with the uplift events of the HM. Vicariance associated with HM uplifts may also have been responsible for infraspecific differentiation in S. pasumensis. In contrast, infraspecific differentiation in S. umbellulata was most likely triggered by Quaternary glaciations. The much lower levels of gene diversity within populations of S. pasumensis compared with S. umbellulata could have resulted from both range contractions and human collection on account of its putative medicinal properties. Combining evidence from morphology, geographical distributions and molecular phylogenetic data, we recommend that S. banmaensis should be treated as a synonym of S. pasumensis which in turn, and based on the same sources of evidence, should be treated as a separate species rather than as a variety of S. umbellulata.

Expansion Under Climate Change: The Genetic Consequences

Range expansion and range shifts are crucial population responses to climate change. Genetic consequences are not well understood but are clearly coupled to ecological dynamics that, in turn, are driven by shifting climate conditions. We model a population with a deterministic reaction-diffusion model coupled to a heterogeneous environment that develops in time due to climate change. We decompose the resulting travelling wave solution into neutral genetic components to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of its genetic structure. Our analysis shows that range expansions and range shifts under slow climate change preserve genetic diversity. This is because slow climate change creates range boundaries that promote spatial mixing of genetic components. Mathematically, the mixing leads to so-called pushed travelling wave solutions. This mixing phenomenon is not seen in spatially homogeneous environments, where range expansion reduces genetic diversity through gene surfing arising from pulled travelling wave solutions. However, the preservation of diversity is diminished when climate change occurs too quickly. Using diversity indices, we show that fast expansions and range shifts erode genetic diversity more than slow range expansions and range shifts. Our study provides analytical insight into the dynamics of travelling wave solutions in heterogeneous environments.

Demographical history and palaeodistribution modelling show range shift towards Amazon Basin for a Neotropical tree species in the LGM

BACKGROUND

We studied the phylogeography and demographical history of Tabebuia serratifolia (Bignoniaceae) to understand the disjunct geographical distribution of South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs). We specifically tested if the multiple and isolated patches of SDTFs are current climatic relicts of a widespread and continuously distributed dry forest during the last glacial maximum (LGM), the so called South American dry forest refugia hypothesis, using ecological niche modelling (ENM) and statistical phylogeography. We sampled 235 individuals of T. serratifolia in 17 populations in Brazil and analysed the polymorphisms at three intergenic chloroplast regions and ITS nuclear ribosomal DNA.

RESULTS

Coalescent analyses showed a demographical expansion at the last c. 130 ka (thousand years before present). Simulations and ENM also showed that the current spatial pattern of genetic diversity is most likely due to a scenario of range expansion and range shift towards the Amazon Basin during the colder and arid climatic conditions associated with the LGM, matching the expected for the South American dry forest refugia hypothesis, although contrasting to the Pleistocene Arc hypothesis. Populations in more stable areas or with higher suitability through time showed higher genetic diversity. Postglacial range shift towards the Southeast and Atlantic coast may have led to spatial genome assortment due to leading edge colonization as the species tracks suitable environments, leading to lower genetic diversity in populations at higher distance from the distribution centroid at 21 ka.

CONCLUSION

Haplotype sharing or common ancestry among populations from Caatinga in Northeast Brazil, Atlantic Forest in Southeast and Cerrado biome and ENM evince the past connection among these biomes.

Coalescent Simulation and Paleodistribution Modeling for Tabebuia rosealba Do Not Support South American Dry Forest Refugia Hypothesis

Studies based on contemporary plant occurrences and pollen fossil records have proposed that the current disjunct distribution of seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) across South America is the result of fragmentation of a formerly widespread and continuously distributed dry forest during the arid climatic conditions associated with the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which is known as the modern-day dry forest refugia hypothesis. We studied the demographic history of Tabebuia rosealba (Bignoniaceae) to understand the disjunct geographic distribution of South American SDTFs based on statistical phylogeography and ecological niche modeling (ENM). We specifically tested the dry forest refugia hypothesis; i.e., if the multiple and isolated patches of SDTFs are current climatic relicts of a widespread and continuously distributed dry forest during the LGM. We sampled 235 individuals across 18 populations in Central Brazil and analyzed the polymorphisms at chloroplast (trnS-trnG, psbA-trnH and ycf6-trnC intergenic spacers) and nuclear (ITS nrDNA) genomes. We performed coalescence simulations of alternative hypotheses under demographic expectations from two a priori biogeographic hypotheses (1. the Pleistocene Arc hypothesis and, 2. a range shift to Amazon Basin) and other two demographic expectances predicted by ENMs (3. expansion throughout the Neotropical South America, including Amazon Basin, and 4. retraction during the LGM). Phylogenetic analyses based on median-joining network showed haplotype sharing among populations with evidence of incomplete lineage sorting. Coalescent analyses showed smaller effective population sizes for T. roseoalba during the LGM compared to the present-day. Simulations and ENM also showed that its current spatial pattern of genetic diversity is most likely due to a scenario of range retraction during the LGM instead of the fragmentation from a once extensive and largely contiguous SDTF across South America, not supporting the South American dry forest refugia hypothesis.

Allele surfing promotes microbial adaptation from standing variation

The coupling of ecology and evolution during range expansions enables mutations to establish at expanding range margins and reach high frequencies. This phenomenon, called allele surfing, is thought to have caused revolutions in the gene pool of many species, most evidently in microbial communities. It has remained unclear, however, under which conditions allele surfing promotes or hinders adaptation. Here, using microbial experiments and simulations, we show that, starting with standing adaptive variation, range expansions generate a larger increase in mean fitness than spatially uniform population expansions. The adaptation gain results from 'soft' selective sweeps emerging from surfing beneficial mutations. The rate of these surfing events is shown to sensitively depend on the strength of genetic drift, which varies among strains and environmental conditions. More generally, allele surfing promotes the rate of adaptation per biomass produced, which could help developing biofilms and other resource-limited populations to cope with environmental challenges.

Genetic and demographic recovery of an isolated population of brown bear Ursus arctos L., 1758

The brown bear Ursus arctos L., 1758 population of the Cantabrian Mountains (northwestern Spain) became isolated from other bear populations in Europe about 500 years ago and has declined due to hunting and habitat degradation. At the beginning of the 20th century, the Cantabrian population split into eastern and western subpopulations, and genetic exchange between them ceased. In the early 1990s, total population size was estimated to be < 100 bears. Subsequently, reduction in human-caused mortality has brought about an increase in numbers, mainly in the western subpopulation, likely promoting male-mediated migration and gene flow from the western nucleus to the eastern. To evaluate the possible genetic recovery of the small and genetically depauperate eastern subpopulation, in 2013 and 2014 we genotyped hair and faeces samples (116 from the eastern subpopulation and 36 from the western) for 18 microsatellite markers. Data from the annual count of females with cubs of the year (COY) during the past twenty-six years was used to analyze demographic changes. The number of females with COY fell to a minimum of seven in the western and three in eastern subpopulations in the biennium 1993-1994 and reached a respective maximum of 54 and 10 individuals in 2013-2014. We also observed increased bear dispersal and gene flow, mainly from the western to the eastern subpopulation. Of the 26 unique genotypes detected in the eastern subpopulation, 14 (54%) presented an admixture composition, and seven (27%) were determined to be migrants from the western subpopulation. Hence, the two separated and clearly structured subpopulations identified in the past currently show some degree of genetic admixture. This research shows the partial demographic recovery and a change in genetic composition due to migration process in a population of bears that has been isolated for several centuries.

Evidence of rapid change in genetic structure and diversity during range expansion in a recovering large terrestrial carnivore

Recovery of natural populations occurs often with simultaneous or subsequent range expansions. According to population genetic theory, genetic structuring emerges at the expansion front together with decreasing genetic diversity, owing to multiple founder events. Thereupon, as the expansion proceeds and connectivity among populations is established, homogenization and a resurgence of genetic diversity are to be expected. Few studies have used a fine temporal scale combined with genetic sampling to track range expansions as they proceed in wild animal populations. As a natural experiment, the historical eradication of large terrestrial carnivores followed by their recovery and recolonization may facilitate empirical tests of these ideas. Here, using brown bear (Ursus arctos) as model species, we tested predictions from genetic theory of range expansion. Individuals from all over Finland were genotyped for every year between 1996 and 2010 using 12 validated autosomal microsatellite markers. A latitudinal shift of about 110 km was observed in the distribution and delineation of genetic clusters during this period. As the range expansion proceeded, we found, as theory predicts, that the degree of genetic structure decreased, and that both genetic variation and admixture increased. The genetic consequences of range expansions may first be detected after multiple generations, but we found major changes in genetic composition after just 1.5 generations, accompanied by population growth and increased migration. These rapid genetic changes suggest an ongoing concerted action of geographical and demographic expansion combined with substantial immigration of bears from Russia during the recovery of brown bears within the large ecosystem of northern Europe.

PSMC analysis of effective population sizes in molecular ecology and its application to black-and-white Ficedula flycatchers

Climatic fluctuations during the Quaternary period governed the demography of species and contributed to population differentiation and ultimately speciation. Studies of these past processes have previously been hindered by a lack of means and genetic data to model changes in effective population size (Ne ) through time. However, based on diploid genome sequences of high quality, the recently developed pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) can estimate trajectories of changes in Ne over considerable time periods. We applied this approach to resequencing data from nearly 200 genomes of four species and several populations of the Ficedula species complex of black-and-white flycatchers. Ne curves of Atlas, collared, pied and semicollared flycatcher converged 1-2 million years ago (Ma) at an Ne of ≈ 200 000, likely reflecting the time when all four species last shared a common ancestor. Subsequent separate Ne trajectories are consistent with lineage splitting and speciation. All species showed evidence of population growth up until 100-200 thousand years ago (kya), followed by decline and then start of a new phase of population expansion. However, timing and amplitude of changes in Ne differed among species, and for pied flycatcher, the temporal dynamics of Ne differed between Spanish birds and central/northern European populations. This cautions against extrapolation of demographic inference between lineages and calls for adequate sampling to provide representative pictures of the coalescence process in different species or populations. We also empirically evaluate criteria for proper inference of demographic histories using PSMC and arrive at recommendations of using sequencing data with a mean genome coverage of ≥18X, a per-site filter of ≥10 reads and no more than 25% of missing data.

INTEGRATING PARASITES AND PATHOGENS INTO THE STUDY OF GEOGRAPHIC RANGE LIMITS

The geographic distributions of all species are limited, and the determining factors that set these limits are of fundamental importance to the fields of ecology and evolutionary biology. Plant and animal ranges have been of primary concern, while those of parasites, which represent much of the Earth's biodiversity, have been neglected. Here, we review the determinants of the geographic ranges of parasites and pathogens, and explore how parasites provide novel systems with which to investigate the ecological and evolutionary processes governing host/parasite spatial distributions. Although there is significant overlap in the causative factors that determine range borders of parasites and free-living species, parasite distributions are additionally constrained by the geographic range and ecology of the host species' population, as well as by evolutionary factors that promote host-parasite coevolution. Recently, parasites have been used to infer population demographic and ecological information about their host organisms and we conclude that this strategy can be further exploited to understand geographic range limitations of both host and parasite populations.

Long-Distance Dispersal Shaped Patterns of Human Genetic Diversity in Eurasia

Most previous attempts at reconstructing the past history of human populations did not explicitly take geography into account or considered very simple scenarios of migration and ignored environmental information. However, it is likely that the last glacial maximum (LGM) affected the demography and the range of many species, including our own. Moreover, long-distance dispersal (LDD) may have been an important component of human migrations, allowing fast colonization of new territories and preserving high levels of genetic diversity. Here, we use a high-quality microsatellite data set genotyped in 22 populations to estimate the posterior probabilities of several scenarios for the settlement of the Old World by modern humans. We considered models ranging from a simple spatial expansion to others including LDD and a LGM-induced range contraction, as well as Neolithic demographic expansions. We find that scenarios with LDD are much better supported by data than models without LDD. Nevertheless, we show evidence that LDD events to empty habitats were strongly prevented during the settlement of Eurasia. This unexpected absence of LDD ahead of the colonization wave front could have been caused by an Allee effect, either due to intrinsic causes such as an inbreeding depression built during the expansion or due to extrinsic causes such as direct competition with archaic humans. Overall, our results suggest only a relatively limited effect of the LGM contraction on current patterns of human diversity. This is in clear contrast with the major role of LDD migrations, which have potentially contributed to the intermingled genetic structure of Eurasian populations.

Large scale patterns of genetic variation and differentiation in sugar maple from tropical Central America to temperate North America

Background

Geological events in the latter Cenozoic have influenced the distribution, abundance and genetic structure of tree populations in temperate and tropical North America. The biogeographical history of temperate vegetation that spans large ranges of latitude is complex, involving multiple latitudinal shifts that might have occurred via different migration routes. We determined the regional structuring of genetic variation of sugar maple (Acer saccharum subsp. saccharum) and its only subspecies in tropical America (Acer saccharum subsp. skutchii) using nuclear and chloroplast data. The studied populations span a geographic range from Maine, USA (46°N), to El Progreso, Guatemala (15°N). We examined genetic subdivisions, explored the locations of ancestral haplotypes, analyzed genetic data to explore the presence of a single or multiple glacial refugia, and tested whether genetic lineages are temporally consistent with a Pleistocene or older divergence.

Results

Nuclear and chloroplast data indicated that populations in midwestern USA and western Mexico were highly differentiated from populations in the rest of the sites. The time of the most recent common ancestor of the western Mexico haplotype lineage was dated to the Pliocene (5.9 Ma, 95 % HPD: 4.3–7.3 Ma). Splits during the Pleistocene separated the rest of the phylogroups. The most frequent and widespread haplotype occurred in half of the sites (Guatemala, eastern Mexico, southeastern USA, and Ohio). Our data also suggested that multiple Pleistocene refugia (tropics-southeastern USA, midwestern, and northeastern USA), but not western Mexico (Jalisco), contributed to post-glacial northward expansion of ranges. Current southern Mexican and Guatemalan populations have reduced population sizes, genetic bottlenecks and tend toward homozygosity, as indicated using nuclear and chloroplast markers.

Conclusions

The divergence of western Mexican populations from the rest of the sugar maples likely resulted from orographic and volcanic barriers to gene flow. Past connectivity among populations in the southeastern USA and eastern Mexico and Guatemala possible occurred through gene flow during the Pleistocene. The time to the most common ancestor values revealed that populations from the Midwest and Northeast USA represented different haplotype lineages, indicating major divergence of haplotypes lineages before the Last Glacial Maximum and suggesting the existence of multiple glacial refugia.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-015-0518-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Species delimitation, genetic diversity and population historical dynamics of Cycas diannanensis (Cycadaceae) occurring sympatrically in the Red River region of China

Delimitating species boundaries could be of critical importance when evaluating the species' evolving process and providing guidelines for conservation genetics. Here, species delimitation was carried out on three endemic and endangered Cycas species with resembling morphology and overlapped distribution range along the Red River (Yuanjiang) in China: Cycas diananensis Z. T. Guan et G. D. Tao, Cycas parvula S. L. Yang and Cycas multiovula D. Y. Wang. A total of 137 individuals from 15 populations were genotyped by using three chloroplastic (psbA-trnH, atpI-atpH, and trnL-rps4) and two single copy nuclear (RPB1 and SmHP) DNA sequences. Basing on the carefully morphological comparison and cladistic haplotype aggregation (CHA) analysis, we propose all the populations as one species, with the rest two incorporated into C. diannanensis. Genetic diversity and structure analysis of the conflated C. diannanensis revealed this species possessed a relative lower genetic diversity than estimates of other Cycas species. The higher genetic diversity among populations and relative lower genetic diversity within populations, as well as obvious genetic differentiation among populations inferred from chloroplastic DNA (cpDNA) suggested a recent genetic loss within this protected species. Additionally, a clear genetic structure of C. diannanensis corresponding with geography was detected based on cpDNA, dividing its population ranges into "Yuanjiang-Nanhun" basin and "Ejia-Jiepai" basin groups. Demographical history analyses based on combined cpDNA and one nuclear DNA (nDNA) SmHP both showed the population size of C. diannanensis began to decrease in Quaternary glaciation with no subsequent expansion, while another nDNA RPB1 revealed a more recent sudden expansion after long-term population size contraction, suggesting its probable bottleneck events in history. Our findings offer grounded views for clarifying species boundaries of C. diannanensis when determining the conservation objectives. For operational guidelines, the downstream populations which occupy high and peculiar haplotypes should be given prior in-situ conservation. In addition, ex-situ conservation and reintroduction measures for decades of generations are supplemented for improving the population size and genetic diversity of the endemic and endangered species.

Influence of mutation and recombination on HIV-1 in vitro fitness recovery

The understanding of the evolutionary processes underlying HIV-1 fitness recovery is fundamental for HIV-1 pathogenesis, antiretroviral treatment and vaccine design. It is known that HIV-1 can present very high mutation and recombination rates, however the specific contribution of these evolutionary forces in the "in vitro" viral fitness recovery has not been simultaneously quantified. To this aim, we analyzed substitution, recombination and molecular adaptation rates in a variety of HIV-1 biological clones derived from a viral isolate after severe population bottlenecks and a number of large population cell culture passages. These clones presented an overall but uneven fitness gain, mean of 3-fold, respect to the initial passage values. We found a significant relationship between the fitness increase and the appearance and fixation of mutations. In addition, these fixed mutations presented molecular signatures of positive selection through the accumulation of non-synonymous substitutions. Interestingly, viral recombination correlated with fitness recovery in most of studied viral quasispecies. The genetic diversity generated by these evolutionary processes was positively correlated with the viral fitness. We conclude that HIV-1 fitness recovery can be derived from the genetic heterogeneity generated through both mutation and recombination, and under diversifying molecular adaptation. The findings also suggest nonrandom evolutionary pathways for in vitro fitness recovery.

Towards a more holistic research approach to plant conservation: the case of rare plants on oceanic islands

Research dedicated to rare endemic plants is usually focused on one given aspect. However, holistic studies, addressing several key issues, might be more useful, supporting management programmes while unravelling basic knowledge about ecological and population-level processes. A more comprehensive approach to research is proposed, encompassing: phylogenetics/systematics, pollination biology and seed dispersal, propagation, population genetics, species distribution models (SDMs), threats and monitoring. We present a holistic study dedicated to Veronica dabneyi Hochst. ex Seub., an endangered chamaephyte endemic to the Azores. Veronica dabneyi was mainly found associated with other endemic taxa; however, invasive plants were also present and together with introduced cattle, goats and rabbits are a major threat. Most populations grow at somewhat rocky and steep locations that appeared to work as refuges. Seed set in the wild was generally high and recruitment of young plants from seed seemed to be frequent. In the laboratory, it was possible to germinate and fully develop V. dabneyi seedlings, which were planted at their site of origin. No dormancy was detected and time for 50 % germination was affected by incubation temperature. Eight new microsatellite markers were applied to 72 individuals from 7 sites. A considerable degree of admixture was found between samples from the two islands Flores and Corvo, with 98 % of the genetic variability allocated within populations. Levels of heterozygosity were high and no evidence of inbreeding was found. Species distribution models based on climatic and topographic variables allowed the estimation of the potential distribution of V. dabneyi on Flores and Corvo using ecological niche factor analysis and Maxent. The inclusion of land-use variables only slightly increased the information explained by the models. Projection of the expected habitat in Faial largely coincided with the only historic record of V. dabneyi on that island. This research could be the basis for the design of a recovery plan, showing the pertinence of more holistic research approaches to plant conservation.

Genetic Consequences of Antiviral Therapy on HIV-1

A variety of enzyme inhibitors have been developed in combating HIV-1, however the fast evolutionary rate of this virus commonly leads to the emergence of resistance mutations that finally allows the mutant virus to survive. This review explores the main genetic consequences of HIV-1 molecular evolution during antiviral therapies, including the viral genetic diversity and molecular adaptation. The role of recombination in the generation of drug resistance is also analyzed. Besides the investigation and discussion of published works, an evolutionary analysis of protease-coding genes collected from patients before and after treatment with different protease inhibitors was included to validate previous studies. Finally, the review discusses the importance of considering genetic consequences of antiviral therapies in models of HIV-1 evolution that could improve current genotypic resistance testing and treatments design.

Relaxed random walk model coupled with ecological niche modeling unravel the dispersal dynamics of a Neotropical savanna tree species in the deeper Quaternary

Understanding the dispersal routes of Neotropical savanna tree species is an essential step to unravel the effects of past climate change on genetic patterns, species distribution and population demography. Here we reconstruct the demographic history and dispersal dynamics of the Neotropical savanna tree species Tabebuia aurea to understand the effects of Quaternary climate change on its current spatial patterns of genetic diversity. We sampled 285 individuals from 21 populations throughout Brazilian savannas and sequenced all individuals for three chloroplast intergenic spacers and ITS nrDNA. We analyzed data using a multi-model inference framework by coupling the relaxed random walk model (RRW), ecological niche modeling (ENM) and statistical phylogeography. The most recent common ancestor of T. aurea lineages dated from ~4.0 ± 2.5 Ma. T. aurea lineages cyclically dispersed from the West toward the Central-West Brazil, and from the Southeast toward the East and Northeast Brazil, following the paleodistribution dynamics shown by the ENMs through the last glacial cycle. A historical refugium through time may have allowed dispersal of lineages among populations of Central Brazil, overlapping with population expansion during interglacial periods and the diversification of new lineages. Range and population expansion through the Quaternary were, respectively, the most frequent prediction from ENMs and the most likely demographic scenario from coalescent simulations. Consistent phylogeographic patterns among multiple modeling inferences indicate a promising approach, allowing us to understand how cyclical climate changes through the Quaternary drove complex population dynamics and the current patterns of species distribution and genetic diversity.