Connectivity sustains disease transmission in environments with low potential for endemicity: modelling schistosomiasis with hydrologic and social connectivities

Toward sustainable and comprehensive control of schistosomiasis in China: lessons from Sichuan

Triggered by a fascinating publication in the New England Journal of Medicine detailing China's new multi-pronged strategy to control and eventually interrupt the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum, this PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases Debate critically examines the generalizability and financial costs of the studies presented from the marshlands of the lake region. Edmund Seto from the University of California and colleagues emphasize that the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis varies according to the social-ecological context. They conjecture that the successful intervention packages piloted in the lake region is not fully fit for the hilly and mountainous environments in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces, and hence call for more flexible, setting-specific, and less expensive control strategies. In response, Xiao-Nong Zhou from the National Institute of Parasitic Diseases at the Chinese Center of Disease Control and Prevention and colleagues explain the steps from designing pilot studies to the articulation and implementation of a new national control strategy through a careful process of scaling-up and adaptations. Finally, the two opponents converge. The need for integrated, intersectoral, and setting-specific control measures is stressed, supported by rigorous surveillance and continuous research. Experiences and lessons from China are important for shaping the schistosomiasis elimination agenda.

The challenge of effective surveillance in moving from low transmission to elimination of schistosomiasis in China

Until recently, intensified efforts in China to suppress the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum relied principally on routine praziquantel treatment, extensive use of molluscicides and health education programs. These efforts, now supplemented by a broader range of control measures, have been quite successful in reducing the prevalence and intensity of human infection to very low levels. However, re-emergent transmission has occurred in formerly endemic areas of several provinces, signalling the need for more locally effective, integrated control strategies. We argue that these low but persistent levels of transmission also require important changes in both the tactics and strategy of disease surveillance to move forward towards elimination. Here we present recent data exemplifying the low transmission environment which suggests that we are reaching limits of detection of current diagnostic techniques used for human infection surveillance in these communities. However, both epidemiological data and theoretical results indicate that (i) transmission in the human population can persist at very low infection intensities even in the presence of routine control activities; (ii) the parasite can be reintroduced into parasite-free environments by very modest external inputs; and (iii) transmission at these low infection intensities exhibits very slow inter-year dynamics. These observations motivate the need for new, sensitive tools to identify low-level infections in mammalian or snail hosts, or the presence of S. japonicum in environmental media. Environmental monitoring offers an alternative, and perhaps more efficient, approach to large-scale surveillance of human infections in low transmission regions.

Genetic assignment methods for gaining insight into the management of infectious disease by understanding pathogen, vector, and host movement

For many pathogens with environmental stages, or those carried by vectors or intermediate hosts, disease transmission is strongly influenced by pathogen, host, and vector movements across complex landscapes, and thus quantitative measures of movement rate and direction can reveal new opportunities for disease management and intervention. Genetic assignment methods are a set of powerful statistical approaches useful for establishing population membership of individuals. Recent theoretical improvements allow these techniques to be used to cost-effectively estimate the magnitude and direction of key movements in infectious disease systems, revealing important ecological and environmental features that facilitate or limit transmission. Here, we review the theory, statistical framework, and molecular markers that underlie assignment methods, and we critically examine recent applications of assignment tests in infectious disease epidemiology. Research directions that capitalize on use of the techniques are discussed, focusing on key parameters needing study for improved understanding of patterns of disease.

Evaluation of mammalian and intermediate host surveillance methods for detecting schistosomiasis reemergence in southwest China

Background

Schistosomiasis has reemerged in China, threatening schistosomiasis elimination efforts. Surveillance methods that can identify locations where schistosomiasis has reemerged are needed to prevent the further spread of infections.

Methods and Principal Findings

We tested humans, cows, water buffalo and the intermediate host snail, Oncomelania hupensis, for Schistosoma japonicum infection, assessed snail densities and extracted regional surveillance records in areas where schistosomiasis reemerged in Sichuan province. We then evaluated the ability of surveillance methods to identify villages where human infections were present. Human infections were detected in 35 of the 53 villages surveyed (infection prevalence: 0 to 43%), including 17 of 28 villages with no prior evidence of reemergence. Bovine infections were detected in 23 villages (infection prevalence: 0 to 65%) and snail infections in one village. Two common surveillance methods, acute schistosomiasis case reports and surveys for S. japonicum-infected snails, grossly underestimated the number of villages where human infections were present (sensitivity 1% and 3%, respectively). Screening bovines for S. japonicum and surveys for the presence of O. hupensis had modest sensitivity (59% and 69% respectively) and specificity (67% and 44%, respectively). Older adults and bovine owners were at elevated risk of infection. Testing only these high-risk human populations yielded sensitivities of 77% and 71%, respectively.

Conclusions

Human and bovine schistosomiasis were widespread in regions where schistosomiasis had reemerged but acute schistosomiasis and S. japonicum-infected snails were rare and, therefore, poor surveillance targets. Until more efficient, sensitive surveillance strategies are developed, direct, targeted parasitological testing of high-risk human populations should be considered to monitor for schistosomiasis reemergence.

Schistosomiasis has reemerged in China in regions where it was previously controlled. As reductions in schistosomiasis, a water-born parasitic infection, prompt consideration of schistosomiasis elimination, surveillance strategies that can signal reemergence and prevent further lapses in control are needed. We examined the distribution of Schistosoma japonicum, the species that causes schistosomiasis in China, in 53 villages. The villages were located in regions of Sichuan province where schistosomiasis reemergence had been documented by public health authorities. We tested three key reservoirs, humans, cows and water buffalo, and freshwater snails for S. japonicum infection in an effort to identify high-risk populations and evaluate their ability to signal reemergence. Human and bovine infections were common, detected in 35 villages and 23 villages, respectively, but infected snails were rare, found in only one village. Two commonly used surveillance methods, hospital reports of acute schistosomiasis and surveys for S. japonicum-infected snails, grossly underestimated the number of villages where human infections were present. Schistosomiasis was widespread in the region we studied, highlighting the danger reemergence poses to disease elimination programs. Surveillance systems that monitor high-risk populations such as older adults or bovine owners should be considered to promote detection of reemergence.

The anthropogenic environment lessens the intensity and prevalence of gastrointestinal parasites in Balinese long-tailed macaques (Macaca fascicularis)

The distribution of wildlife parasites in a landscape is intimately tied to the spatial distribution of hosts. In parasite species, including many gastrointestinal parasites, with obligate or common environmental life stages, the dynamics of the parasite can also be strongly affected by geophysical components of the environment. This is especially salient in host species, for example humans and macaques, which thrive across a wide variety of habitat types and quality and so are exposed to a wealth of environmentally resilient parasites. Here, we examine the effect of environmental and anthropogenic components of the landscape on the prevalence, intensity, and species diversity of gastrointestinal parasites across a metapopulation of long-tailed macaques on the island of Bali, Indonesia. Using principal-components analysis, we identified significant interaction effects between specific environmental and anthropogenic components of the landscape, parsing the Balinese landscape into anthropogenic (PC1), mixed environment (PC2), and non-anthropogenic (PC3) components. Further, we determined that the anthropogenic environment can mitigate the prevalence and intensity of specific gut parasites and the intensity of the overall community of gut parasites, but that non-anthropogenically driven landscape components have no significant effect in increasing or reducing the intensity or prevalence of the community of gut parasites in Balinese macaques.

A new approach to modelling schistosomiasis transmission based on stratified worm burden

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Multiple factors affect schistosomiasis transmission in distributed meta-population systems including age, behaviour, and environment. The traditional approach to modelling macroparasite transmission often exploits the 'mean worm burden' (MWB) formulation for human hosts. However, typical worm distribution in humans is overdispersed, and classic models either ignore this characteristic or make ad hoc assumptions about its pattern (e.g., by assuming a negative binomial distribution). Such oversimplifications can give wrong predictions for the impact of control interventions.

METHODS

We propose a new modelling approach to macro-parasite transmission by stratifying human populations according to worm burden, and replacing MWB dynamics with that of 'population strata'. We developed proper calibration procedures for such multi-component systems, based on typical epidemiological and demographic field data, and implemented them using Wolfram Mathematica.

RESULTS

Model programming and calibration proved to be straightforward. Our calibrated system provided good agreement with the individual level field data from the Msambweni region of eastern Kenya.

CONCLUSION

The Stratified Worm Burden (SWB) approach offers many advantages, in that it accounts naturally for overdispersion and accommodates other important factors and measures of human infection and demographics. Future work will apply this model and methodology to evaluate innovative control intervention strategies, including expanded drug treatment programmes proposed by the World Health Organization and its partners.

Landscape genetics reveals focal transmission of a human macroparasite

Macroparasite infections (e.g., helminths) remain a major human health concern. However, assessing transmission dynamics is problematic because the direct observation of macroparasite dispersal among hosts is not possible. We used a novel landscape genetics approach to examine transmission of the human roundworm Ascaris lumbricoides in a small human population in Jiri, Nepal. Unexpectedly, we found significant genetic structuring of parasites, indicating the presence of multiple transmission foci within a small sampling area (∼14 km²). We analyzed several epidemiological variables, and found that transmission is spatially autocorrelated around households and that transmission foci are stable over time despite extensive human movement. These results would not have been obtainable via a traditional epidemiological study based on worm counts alone. Our data refute the assumption that a single host population corresponds to a single parasite transmission unit, an assumption implicit in many classic models of macroparasite transmission. Newer models have shown that the metapopulation-like pattern observed in our data can adversely affect targeted control strategies aimed at community-wide impacts. Furthermore, the observed metapopulation structure and local mating patterns generate an excess of homozygotes that can accelerate the spread of recessive traits such as drug resistance. Our study illustrates how molecular analyses complement traditional epidemiological information in providing a better understanding of parasite transmission. Similar landscape genetic approaches in other macroparasite systems will be warranted if an accurate depiction of the transmission process is to be used to inform effective control strategies.

Currently, knowledge of transmission patterns of human helminth parasites is based on traditional epidemiological data such as the number of parasites within hosts. Genetic markers can greatly facilitate our understanding of the transmission process because they provide an indirect means to infer dispersal. Here, we apply novel landscape genetics methods to examine the transmission dynamics of the world's most common human macroparasite, Ascaris lumbricoides. Specifically, we tested for both the presence of multiple transmission foci in a single human village in Nepal and the epidemiological factors associated with such infection foci. On this very local scale, we were surprised to find multiple transmission foci that were centered on households and that reinfections were occurring from the same foci. Thus, our study illustrates the utility of population genetics analyses in epidemiology. Furthermore, our study challenges current dogma by revealing fragmentation of transmission rather than homogeneous parasite mixing within a single human community. Thus, the results have important implications for drug resistance evolution and parasite control.

Analytical methods for quantifying environmental connectivity for the control and surveillance of infectious disease spread

The sustained transmission and spread of environmentally mediated infectious diseases is governed in part by the dispersal of parasites, disease vectors and intermediate hosts between sites of transmission. Functional geospatial models can be used to quantify and predict the degree to which environmental features facilitate or limit connectivity between target populations, yet typical models are limited in their geographical and analytical approach, providing simplistic, global measures of connectivity and lacking methods to assess the epidemiological implications of fine-scale heterogeneous landscapes. Here, functional spatial models are applied to problems of surveillance and control of the parasitic blood fluke Schistosoma japonicum and its intermediate snail host Oncomelania haupensis in western China. We advance functional connectivity methods by providing an analytical framework to (i) identify nodes of transmission where the degree of connectedness to other villages, and thus the potential for disease spread, is higher than is estimated using Euclidean distance alone and (ii) (re)organize transmission sites into disease surveillance units based on second-order relationships among nodes using non-Euclidean distance measures, termed effective geographical distance (EGD). Functional environmental models are parametrized using ecological information on the target organisms, and pair-wise distributions of inter-node EGD are estimated. A Monte Carlo rank product analysis is presented to identify nearby nodes under alternative distance models. Nodes are then iteratively embedded into EGD space and clustered using a k-means algorithm to group villages into ecologically meaningful surveillance groups. A consensus clustering approach is taken to derive the most stable cluster structure. The results indicate that novel relationships between nodes are revealed when non-Euclidean, ecologically determined distance measures are used to quantify connectivity in heterogeneous landscapes. These connections are not evident when analysing nodes in Euclidean space, and thus surveillance and control activities planned using Euclidean distance measures may be suboptimal. The methods developed here provide a quantitative framework for assessing the effectiveness of ecologically grounded surveillance systems and of control and prevention strategies for environmentally mediated diseases.

Schistosomiasis and neglected tropical diseases: towards integrated and sustainable control and a word of caution

In May 2001, the World Health Assembly (WHA) passed a resolution which urged member states to attain, by 2010, a minimum target of regularly administering anthelminthic drugs to at least 75% and up to 100% of all school-aged children at risk of morbidity. The refined global strategy for the prevention and control of schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis was issued in the following year and large-scale administration of anthelminthic drugs endorsed as the central feature. This strategy has subsequently been termed 'preventive chemotherapy'. Clearly, the 2001 WHA resolution led the way for concurrently controlling multiple neglected tropical diseases. In this paper, we recall the schistosomiasis situation in Africa in mid-2003. Adhering to strategic guidelines issued by the World Health Organization, we estimate the projected annual treatment needs with praziquantel among the school-aged population and critically discuss these estimates. The important role of geospatial tools for disease risk mapping, surveillance and predictions for resource allocation is emphasised. We clarify that schistosomiasis is only one of many neglected tropical diseases and that considerable uncertainties remain regarding global burden estimates. We examine new control initiatives targeting schistosomiasis and other tropical diseases that are often neglected. The prospect and challenges of integrated control are discussed and the need for combining biomedical, educational and engineering strategies and geospatial tools for sustainable disease control are highlighted. We conclude that, for achieving integrated and sustainable control of neglected tropical diseases, a set of interventions must be tailored to a given endemic setting and fine-tuned over time in response to the changing nature and impact of control. Consequently, besides the environment, the prevailing demographic, health and social systems contexts need to be considered.

Parasites and poverty: the case of schistosomiasis

Simultaneous and sequential transmission of multiple parasites, and their resultant overlapping chronic infections, are facts of life in many underdeveloped rural areas. These represent significant but often poorly measured health and economic burdens for affected populations. For example, the chronic inflammatory process associated with long-term schistosomiasis contributes to anaemia and undernutrition, which, in turn, can lead to growth stunting, poor school performance, poor work productivity, and continued poverty. To date, most national and international programs aimed at parasite control have not considered the varied economic and ecological factors underlying multi-parasite transmission, but some are beginning to provide a coordinated approach to control. In addition, interest is emerging in new studies for the re-evaluation and recalibration of the health burden of helminthic parasite infection. Their results should highlight the strong potential of integrated parasite control in efforts for poverty reduction.

China's new strategy to block Schistosoma japonicum transmission: experiences and impact beyond schistosomiasis

Despite sustained efforts for its control made over the past 50+ years, the re-emergence of schistosomiasis in China was noted around the turn of the new millennium. Consequently, a new integrated strategy was proposed to stop the contamination of schistosome eggs to the environment, which emphasizes health education, access to clean water and adequate sanitation, mechanization of agriculture and fencing of water buffaloes, along with chemotherapy. Validation of this integrated control strategy in four pilot counties in the provinces of Anhui, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi revealed significant reductions in the rate of Schistosoma japonicum infection in humans and intermediate host snails. Importantly, this strategy showed an impact on diseases beyond schistosomiasis, signified by concomitant reductions in the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth infections. In view of China's new integrated strategy for transmission control of schistosomiasis showing an ancillary benefit on other helminthic diseases, we encourage others to investigate the scope and limits of integrated control of neglected tropical diseases.

The role of human movement in the transmission of vector-borne pathogens

Background

Human movement is a key behavioral factor in many vector-borne disease systems because it influences exposure to vectors and thus the transmission of pathogens. Human movement transcends spatial and temporal scales with different influences on disease dynamics. Here we develop a conceptual model to evaluate the importance of variation in exposure due to individual human movements for pathogen transmission, focusing on mosquito-borne dengue virus.

Methodology and Principal Findings

We develop a model showing that the relevance of human movement at a particular scale depends on vector behavior. Focusing on the day-biting Aedes aegypti, we illustrate how vector biting behavior combined with fine-scale movements of individual humans engaged in their regular daily routine can influence transmission. Using a simple example, we estimate a transmission rate (R₀) of 1.3 when exposure is assumed to occur only in the home versus 3.75 when exposure at multiple locations—e.g., market, friend's—due to movement is considered. Movement also influences for which sites and individuals risk is greatest. For the example considered, intriguingly, our model predicts little correspondence between vector abundance in a site and estimated R₀ for that site when movement is considered. This illustrates the importance of human movement for understanding and predicting the dynamics of a disease like dengue. To encourage investigation of human movement and disease, we review methods currently available to study human movement and, based on our experience studying dengue in Peru, discuss several important questions to address when designing a study.

Conclusions/Significance

Human movement is a critical, understudied behavioral component underlying the transmission dynamics of many vector-borne pathogens. Understanding movement will facilitate identification of key individuals and sites in the transmission of pathogens such as dengue, which then may provide targets for surveillance, intervention, and improved disease prevention.

Vector-borne diseases constitute a largely neglected and enormous burden on public health in many resource-challenged environments, demanding efficient control strategies that could be developed through improved understanding of pathogen transmission. Human movement—which determines exposure to vectors—is a key behavioral component of vector-borne disease epidemiology that is poorly understood. We develop a conceptual framework to organize past studies by the scale of movement and then examine movements at fine-scale—i.e., people going through their regular, daily routine—that determine exposure to insect vectors for their role in the dynamics of pathogen transmission. We develop a model to quantify risk of vector contact across locations people visit, with emphasis on mosquito-borne dengue virus in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. An example scenario illustrates how movement generates variation in exposure risk across individuals, how transmission rates within sites can be increased, and that risk within sites is not solely determined by vector density, as is commonly assumed. Our analysis illustrates the importance of human movement for pathogen transmission, yet little is known—especially for populations most at risk to vector-borne diseases (e.g., dengue, leishmaniasis, etc.). We outline several important considerations for designing epidemiological studies to encourage investigation of individual human movement, based on experience studying dengue.