Heterogeneity in the rate of molecular sequence evolution substantially impacts the accuracy of detecting shifts in diversification rates

As species richness varies along the tree of life, there is a great interest in identifying factors that affect the rates by which lineages speciate or go extinct. To this end, theoretical biologists have developed a suite of phylogenetic comparative methods that aim to identify where shifts in diversification rates had occurred along a phylogeny and whether they are associated with some traits. Using these methods, numerous studies have predicted that speciation and extinction rates vary across the tree of life. In this study, we show that asymmetric rates of sequence evolution lead to systematic biases in the inferred phylogeny, which in turn lead to erroneous inferences regarding lineage diversification patterns. The results demonstrate that as the asymmetry in sequence evolution rates increases, so does the tendency to select more complicated models that include the possibility of diversification rate shifts. These results thus suggest that any inference regarding shifts in diversification pattern should be treated with great caution, at least until any biases regarding the molecular substitution rate have been ruled out.

Phylogenomics indicates the "living fossil" Isoetes diversified in the Cenozoic

The fossil record provides an invaluable insight into the temporal origins of extant lineages of organisms. However, establishing the relationships between fossils and extant lineages can be difficult in groups with low rates of morphological change over time. Molecular dating can potentially circumvent this issue by allowing distant fossils to act as calibration points, but rate variation across large evolutionary scales can bias such analyses. In this study, we apply multiple dating methods to genome-wide datasets to infer the origin of extant species of Isoetes, a group of mostly aquatic and semi-aquatic isoetalean lycopsids, which closely resemble fossil forms dating back to the Triassic. Rate variation observed in chloroplast genomes hampers accurate dating, but genome-wide nuclear markers place the origin of extant diversity within this group in the mid-Paleogene, 45-60 million years ago. Our genomic analyses coupled with a careful evaluation of the fossil record indicate that despite resembling forms from the Triassic, extant Isoetes species do not represent the remnants of an ancient and widespread group, but instead have spread around the globe in the relatively recent past.

Rates and Rocks: Strengths and Weaknesses of Molecular Dating Methods

I present here an in-depth, although non-exhaustive, review of two topics in molecular dating. Clock models, which describe the evolution of the rate of evolution, are considered first. Some of the shortcomings of popular approaches-uncorrelated clock models in particular-are presented and discussed. Autocorrelated models are shown to be more reasonable from a biological perspective. Some of the most recent autocorrelated models also rely on a coherent treatment of instantaneous and average substitution rates while previous models are based on implicit approximations. Second, I provide a brief overview of the processes involved in collecting and preparing fossil data. I then review the main techniques that use this data for calibrating the molecular clock. I argue that, in its current form, the fossilized birth-death process relies on assumptions about the mechanisms underlying fossilization and the data collection process that may negatively impact the date estimates. Node-dating approaches make better use of the data available, even though they rest on paleontologists' intervention to prepare raw fossil data. Altogether, this study provides indications that may help practitioners in selecting appropriate methods for molecular dating. It will also hopefully participate in defining the contour of future methodological developments in the field.

Phylogeny of the Subtribe Monoctonina (Hymenoptera, Braconidae, Aphidiinae)

Members of the Monoctonina subtribe have long been neglected in applied studies of the subfamily Aphidiinae, due to their low economic importance, as they do not parasitize pests of cultivated plants. Consequently, data about this group are scarce, including its taxonomy and phylogeny. In the present study, we explore inter- and intraspecific genetic variation of Monoctonina species, including genera Monoctonus Haliday 1833, Monoctonia Starý 1962, Falciconus Mackauer 1959 and Harkeria Cameron 1900. We employ two molecular markers, the barcode region of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and the D2 region of the 28S nuclear gene (28S rDNA), to analyze genetic structuring and phylogeny of all available Monoctonina species, and combine them with morphological data for an integrative approach. We report one new species, and three potentially new species which can be formally described when further specimens are available. Analysis of phylogenetic relationships within the subtribe shows a basal position for the genera Falciconus and Monoctonia, and the close relatedness of Harkeria and Monoctonus.

A Simulation-Based Evaluation of Tip-Dating Under the Fossilized Birth-Death Process

Bayesian molecular dating is widely used to study evolutionary timescales. This procedure usually involves phylogenetic analysis of nucleotide sequence data, with fossil-based calibrations applied as age constraints on internal nodes of the tree. An alternative approach is tip-dating, which explicitly includes fossil data in the analysis. This can be done, for example, through the joint analysis of molecular data from present-day taxa and morphological data from both extant and fossil taxa. In the context of tip-dating, an important development has been the fossilized birth-death process, which allows non-contemporaneous tips and sampled ancestors while providing a model of lineage diversification for the prior on the tree topology and internal node times. However, tip-dating with fossils faces a number of considerable challenges, especially, those associated with fossil sampling and evolutionary models for morphological characters. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the performance of tip-dating using the fossilized birth-death model. We simulated fossil occurrences and the evolution of nucleotide sequences and morphological characters under a wide range of conditions. Our analyses of these data show that the number and the maximum age of fossil occurrences have a greater influence than the degree of among-lineage rate variation or the number of morphological characters on estimates of node times and the tree topology. Tip-dating with the fossilized birth-death model generally performs well in recovering the relationships among extant taxa but has difficulties in correctly placing fossil taxa in the tree and identifying the number of sampled ancestors. The method yields accurate estimates of the ages of the root and crown group, although the precision of these estimates varies with the probability of fossil occurrence. The exclusion of morphological characters results in a slight overestimation of node times, whereas the exclusion of nucleotide sequences has a negative impact on inference of the tree topology. Our results provide an overview of the performance of tip-dating using the fossilized birth-death model, which will inform further development of the method and its application to key questions in evolutionary biology.

Deep mitochondrial DNA phylogeographic divergence in the threatened aoudad Ammotragus lervia (Bovidae, Caprini)

The aoudad or Barbary sheep (Ammotragus lervia) is a threatened ungulate emblematic of North Africa, whose population structure and subspecific taxonomy have not been examined genetically. This knowledge is essential and urgently needed to inform ongoing conservation and management efforts. We analysed the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and four nuclear genes (casein kappa, spectrin beta nonerythrocytic 1, thyroglobulin, thyrotropin subunit beta) for the first phylogeographic survey of the aoudad, and uncovered a deep Mediterranean-Saharan mitochondrial split separating two highly distinct evolutionary lineages. Their level of divergence is greater than or comparable to those observed between several pairs of congeneric species of different caprine genera. The split was estimated to have occurred in the Early Pleistocene, about 1.3 million years ago. None of the four nuclear genes surveyed, chosen because they have been used in phylogeographic and species-level phylogenetic studies of bovids, allowed us to detect, likely due to their slow evolutionary rate, the substantial and geographically coherent subdivision revealed by mitochondrial DNA. This study is evidence and testament to the ability of mitochondrial DNA, probably unrivalled by any other single-locus marker, as an exploratory tool for investigating population genealogy and history and identifying potential evolutionarily significant units for conservation in animals.

Reliable Confidence Intervals for RelTime Estimates of Evolutionary Divergence Times

Confidence intervals (CIs) depict the statistical uncertainty surrounding evolutionary divergence time estimates. They capture variance contributed by the finite number of sequences and sites used in the alignment, deviations of evolutionary rates from a strict molecular clock in a phylogeny, and uncertainty associated with clock calibrations. Reliable tests of biological hypotheses demand reliable CIs. However, current non-Bayesian methods may produce unreliable CIs because they do not incorporate rate variation among lineages and interactions among clock calibrations properly. Here, we present a new analytical method to calculate CIs of divergence times estimated using the RelTime method, along with an approach to utilize multiple calibration uncertainty densities in dating analyses. Empirical data analyses showed that the new methods produce CIs that overlap with Bayesian highest posterior density intervals. In the analysis of computer-simulated data, we found that RelTime CIs show excellent average coverage probabilities, that is, the actual time is contained within the CIs with a 94% probability. These developments will encourage broader use of computationally efficient RelTime approaches in molecular dating analyses and biological hypothesis testing.

High-throughput sequencing (HTS) for the analysis of viral populations

The development of High-Throughput Sequencing (HTS) technologies is having a major impact on the genomic analysis of viral populations. Current HTS platforms can capture nucleic acid variation across millions of genes for both selected amplicons and full viral genomes. HTS has already facilitated the discovery of new viruses, hinted new taxonomic classifications and provided a deeper and broader understanding of their diversity, population and genetic structure. Hence, HTS has already replaced standard Sanger sequencing in basic and applied research fields, but the next step is its implementation as a routine technology for the analysis of viruses in clinical settings. The most likely application of this implementation will be the analysis of viral genomics, because the huge population sizes, high mutation rates and very fast replacement of viral populations have demonstrated the limited information obtained with Sanger technology. In this review, we describe new technologies and provide guidelines for the high-throughput sequencing and genetic and evolutionary analyses of viral populations and metaviromes, including software applications. With the development of new HTS technologies, new and refurbished molecular and bioinformatic tools are also constantly being developed to process and integrate HTS data. These allow assembling viral genomes and inferring viral population diversity and dynamics. Finally, we also present several applications of these approaches to the analysis of viral clinical samples including transmission clusters and outbreak characterization.

Accounting for Uncertainty in the Evolutionary Timescale of Green Plants Through Clock-Partitioning and Fossil Calibration Strategies

Establishing an accurate evolutionary timescale for green plants (Viridiplantae) is essential to understanding their interaction and coevolution with the Earth's climate and the many organisms that rely on green plants. Despite being the focus of numerous studies, the timing of the origin of green plants and the divergence of major clades within this group remain highly controversial. Here, we infer the evolutionary timescale of green plants by analyzing 81 protein-coding genes from 99 chloroplast genomes, using a core set of 21 fossil calibrations. We test the sensitivity of our divergence-time estimates to various components of Bayesian molecular dating, including the tree topology, clock models, clock-partitioning schemes, rate priors, and fossil calibrations. We find that the choice of clock model affects date estimation and that the independent-rates model provides a better fit to the data than the autocorrelated-rates model. Varying the rate prior and tree topology had little impact on age estimates, with far greater differences observed among calibration choices and clock-partitioning schemes. Our analyses yield date estimates ranging from the Paleoproterozoic to Mesoproterozoic for crown-group green plants, and from the Ediacaran to Middle Ordovician for crown-group land plants. We present divergence-time estimates of the major groups of green plants that take into account various sources of uncertainty. Our proposed timeline lays the foundation for further investigations into how green plants shaped the global climate and ecosystems, and how embryophytes became dominant in terrestrial environments.

Rapid loss of flight in the Aldabra white-throated rail

Flight loss has evolved independently in numerous island bird lineages worldwide, and particularly in rails (Rallidae). The Aldabra white-throated rail (Dryolimnas [cuvieri] aldabranus) is the last surviving flightless bird in the western Indian Ocean, and the only living flightless subspecies within Dryolimnas cuvieri, which is otherwise volant across its extant range. Such a difference in flight capacity among populations of a single species is unusual, and could be due to rapid evolution of flight loss, or greater evolutionary divergence than can readily be detected by traditional taxonomic approaches. Here we used genetic and morphological analyses to investigate evolutionary trajectories of living and extinct Dryolimnas cuvieri subspecies. Our data places D. [c.] aldabranus among the most rapid documented avian flight loss cases (within an estimated maximum of 80,000-130,000 years). However, the unusual intraspecific variability in flight capacity within D. cuvieri is best explained by levels of genetic divergence, which exceed those documented between other volant taxa versus flightless close relatives, all of which have full species status. Our results also support consideration of Dryolimnas [cuvieri] aldabranus as sufficiently evolutionary distinct from D. c. cuvieri to warrant management as an evolutionary significant unit. Trait variability among closely related lineages should be considered when assessing conservation status, particularly for traits known to influence vulnerability to extinction (e.g. flightlessness).

Mode and tempo of human hepatitis virus evolution

Human viral hepatitis, a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, is caused by highly diverse viruses with different genetic, ecological, and pathogenetic features. Technological advances that allow throughput sequencing of viral genomes, as well as the development of computational tools to analyze such genome data, have largely expanded our knowledge on the host range and evolutionary history of human hepatitis viruses. Thus, with the exclusion of hepatitis D virus, close or distant relatives of these human pathogens were identified in a number of domestic and wild mammals. Also, sequences of human viral strains isolated from different geographic locations and over different time-spans have allowed the application of phylogeographic and molecular dating approaches to large viral phylogenies. In this review, we summarize the most recent insights into our understanding of the evolutionary events and ecological contexts that determined the origin and spread of human hepatitis viruses.

The molecular clock of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

The molecular clock and its phylogenetic applications to genomic data have changed how we study and understand one of the major human pathogens, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB), the etiologic agent of tuberculosis. Genome sequences of MTB strains sampled at different times are increasingly used to infer when a particular outbreak begun, when a drug-resistant clone appeared and expanded, or when a strain was introduced into a specific region. Despite the growing importance of the molecular clock in tuberculosis research, there is a lack of consensus as to whether MTB displays a clocklike behavior and about its rate of evolution. Here we performed a systematic study of the molecular clock of MTB on a large genomic data set (6,285 strains), covering different epidemiological settings and most of the known global diversity. We found that sampling times below 15-20 years were often insufficient to calibrate the clock of MTB. For data sets where such calibration was possible, we obtained a clock rate between 1x10-8 and 5x10-7 nucleotide changes per-site-per-year (0.04-2.2 SNPs per-genome-per-year), with substantial differences between clades. These estimates were not strongly dependent on the time of the calibration points as they changed only marginally when we used epidemiological isolates (sampled in the last 40 years) or three ancient DNA samples (about 1,000 years old) to calibrate the tree. Additionally, the uncertainty and the discrepancies in the results of different methods were sometimes large, highlighting the importance of using different methods, and of considering carefully their assumptions and limitations.

How deep is the conflict between molecular and fossil evidence on the age of angiosperms?

The timing of the origin of angiosperms is a hotly debated topic in plant evolution. Molecular dating analyses that consistently retrieve pre-Cretaceous ages for crown-group angiosperms have eroded confidence in the fossil record, which indicates a radiation and possibly also origin in the Early Cretaceous. Here, we evaluate paleobotanical evidence on the age of the angiosperms, showing how fossils provide crucial data for clarifying the situation. Pollen floras document a Northern Gondwanan appearance of monosulcate angiosperms in the Valanginian and subsequent poleward spread of monosulcates and tricolpate eudicots, accelerating in the Albian. The sequence of pollen types agrees with molecular phylogenetic inferences on the course of pollen evolution, but it conflicts strongly with Triassic and early Jurassic molecular ages, and the discrepancy is difficult to explain by geographic or taphonomic biases. Critical scrutiny shows that supposed pre-Cretaceous angiosperms either represent other plant groups or lack features that might confidently assign them to the angiosperms. However, the record may allow the Late Jurassic existence of ecologically restricted angiosperms, like those seen in the basal ANITA grade. Finally, we examine recently recognized biases in molecular dating and argue that a thoughtful integration of fossil and molecular evidence could help resolve these conflicts.

Bayesian inference of ancestral dates on bacterial phylogenetic trees

The sequencing and comparative analysis of a collection of bacterial genomes from a single species or lineage of interest can lead to key insights into its evolution, ecology or epidemiology. The tool of choice for such a study is often to build a phylogenetic tree, and more specifically when possible a dated phylogeny, in which the dates of all common ancestors are estimated. Here, we propose a new Bayesian methodology to construct dated phylogenies which is specifically designed for bacterial genomics. Unlike previous Bayesian methods aimed at building dated phylogenies, we consider that the phylogenetic relationships between the genomes have been previously evaluated using a standard phylogenetic method, which makes our methodology much faster and scalable. This two-step approach also allows us to directly exploit existing phylogenetic methods that detect bacterial recombination, and therefore to account for the effect of recombination in the construction of a dated phylogeny. We analysed many simulated datasets in order to benchmark the performance of our approach in a wide range of situations. Furthermore, we present applications to three different real datasets from recent bacterial genomic studies. Our methodology is implemented in a R package called BactDating which is freely available for download at https://github.com/xavierdidelot/BactDating.

Molecular phylogeny and historical biogeography of Parnara butterflies (Lepidoptera: Hesperiidae)

The butterfly genus Parnara (Hesperiinae: Baorini), of which some are major pests of economic crops (e.g., rice, wild rice stems and sugarcane), currently consists of 10 species and several subspecies and has a highly disjunct distribution in Australia, Africa, and Asia. We determined the systematic relationships and biogeographical history of the genus by reconstructing the phylogeny based on eight genes and 101 specimens representing all 10 recognized species. Four species delimitation methods (ABGD, bPTP, GMYC and BPP) were also employed to assess the taxonomic status of each species. Based on these results and analyses, we recognize 11 extant species in the genus. The status of the taxon P. naso poutieri (Boisduval, 1833) from Madagascar is revised as a distinct species, Parnara poutieri (Boisduval, 1833) stat. rev. The subspecies P. guttata mangala (Moore, 1866) syn. nov. is synonymized with P. guttata guttata (Bremer & Grey, 1853), while P. bada (Moore, 1878) is provisionally treated as a complex of two species, namely P. bada and P. apostata (Snellen, 1886). The monophyly of Parnara is strongly supported, with the following relationships: P. amalia + ((P. monasi + (P. poutieri + P. naso)) + ((P. kawazoei + P. bada complex) + (P. ganga + (P. ogasawarensis + (P. guttata + P. batta))))). Divergence time and ancestral range estimates indicate that the common ancestor of Parnara originated in an implausible area of Australia, Africa, and Oriental region in the mid-Oligocene and then differentiated in the late Miocene-late Pliocene. Dispersal and range expansion have played an important role in diversification of the genus in Asia and Afica. Relatively stable geotectonic plates at the time when most extant lineages appeared during the late Miocene-early Pliocene might have been the factor responsible for the relatively constant low dynamic rate of diversification within the group.

Shortcomings of Phylogenetic Studies on Recent Radiated Insular Groups: A Meta-Analysis Using Cabo Verde Biodiversity

Over the previous decades, numerous studies focused on how oceanic islands have contributed to determine the phylogenetic relationships and times of origin and diversification of different endemic lineages. The Macaronesian Islands (i.e., Azores, Madeira, Selvagens, Canaries, and Cabo Verde), harbour biotas with exceptionally high levels of endemism. Within the region, the vascular plants and reptiles constitute two of the most important radiations. In this study we compare relevant published phylogenetic data and diversification rates retrieved within Cabo Verde endemic lineages and discuss the importance of choosing appropriate phylogeny-based methods to investigate diversification dynamics on islands. From this selective literature-based review, we summarize the software packages used in Macaronesian studies and discuss their adequacy considering the published data to obtain well-supported phylogenies in the target groups. We further debate the importance of Next Generation Sequencing (NGS), to investigate the evolutionary processes of diversification in the Macaronesian Islands. Analysis of genomic data provides phylogenetic resolution for rapidly evolving species radiations, suggesting a great potential to improve the phylogenetic signal and divergence time estimates in insular lineages. The most important Macaronesian reptile radiations provide good case-studies to compare classical phylogenetic methods with new tools, such as phylogenomics, revealing a high value for research on this hotspot area.

Six Impossible Things before Breakfast: Assumptions, Models, and Belief in Molecular Dating

Confidence in molecular dating analyses has grown with the increasing sophistication of the methods. Some problematic cases where molecular dates disagreed with paleontological estimates appear to have been resolved with a growing agreement between molecules and fossils. But we cannot relax just yet. The growing analytical sophistication of many molecular dating methods relies on an increasingly large number of assumptions about evolutionary history and processes. Many of these assumptions are based on statistical tractability rather than being informed by improved understanding of molecular evolution, yet changing the assumptions can influence molecular dates. How can we tell if the answers we get are driven more by the assumptions we make than by the molecular data being analyzed?

Data partitioning and correction for ascertainment bias reduce the uncertainty of placental mammal divergence times inferred from the morphological clock

Bayesian estimates of divergence times based on the molecular clock yield uncertainty of parameter estimates measured by the width of posterior distributions of node ages. For the relaxed molecular clock, previous works have reported that some of the uncertainty inherent to the variation of rates among lineages may be reduced by partitioning data. Here we test this effect for the purely morphological clock, using placental mammals as a case study. We applied the uncorrelated lognormal relaxed clock to morphological data of 40 extant mammalian taxa and 4,533 characters, taken from the largest published matrix of discrete phenotypic characters. The morphologically derived timescale was compared to divergence times inferred from molecular and combined data. We show that partitioning data into anatomical units significantly reduced the uncertainty of divergence time estimates for morphological data. For the first time, we demonstrate that ascertainment bias has an impact on the precision of morphological clock estimates. While analyses including molecular data suggested most divergences between placental orders occurred near the K-Pg boundary, the partitioned morphological clock recovered older interordinal splits and some younger intraordinal ones, including significantly later dates for the radiation of bats and rodents, which accord to the short-fuse hypothesis.

Paleozoic diversification of terrestrial chitin-degrading bacterial lineages

BACKGROUND

Establishing the divergence times of groups of organisms is a major goal of evolutionary biology. This is especially challenging for microbial lineages due to the near-absence of preserved physical evidence (diagnostic body fossils or geochemical biomarkers). Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) can serve as a temporal scaffold between microbial groups and other fossil-calibrated clades, potentially improving these estimates. Specifically, HGT to or from organisms with fossil-calibrated age estimates can propagate these constraints to additional groups that lack fossils. While HGT is common between lineages, only a small subset of HGT events are potentially informative for dating microbial groups.

RESULTS

Constrained by published fossil-calibrated studies of fungal evolution, molecular clock analyses show that multiple clades of Bacteria likely acquired chitinase homologs via HGT during the very late Neoproterozoic into the early Paleozoic. These results also show that, following these HGT events, recipient terrestrial bacterial clades likely diversified ~ 300-500 million years ago, consistent with established timescales of arthropod and plant terrestrialization.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that these age estimates are broadly consistent with the dispersal of chitinase genes throughout the microbial world in direct response to the evolution and ecological expansion of detrital-chitin producing groups. The convergence of multiple lines of evidence demonstrates the utility of HGT-based dating methods in microbial evolution. The pattern of inheritance of chitinase genes in multiple terrestrial bacterial lineages via HGT processes suggests that these genes, and possibly other genes encoding substrate-specific enzymes, can serve as a "standard candle" for dating microbial lineages across the Tree of Life.

The genetic diversity and evolution of diatom-diazotroph associations highlights traits favoring symbiont integration

Diatom diazotroph associations (DDAs) are a widespread marine planktonic symbiosis between several diatom genera and di-nitrogen (N2)-fixing bacteria. Combining single cell confocal microscopy observations and molecular genetic approaches on individual field collected cells, we determined the phylogenetic diversity, distribution and evolution of the DDAs. Confocal analyses coupled with 3-D imaging re-evaluated the cellular location of DDA symbionts. DDA diversity was resolved by paired gene sequencing (18S rRNA and rbcL genes, 16S rRNA and nifH genes). A survey using the newly acquired sequences against public databases found sequences with high similarity (99-100%) to either host (18S rRNA) or symbiont (16S rRNA) in atypical regions for DDAs (high latitudes, anoxic basin and copepod gut). Concatenated phylogenies were congruent for the host and cyanobacteria sequences and implied co-evolution. Time-calibrated trees dated the appearance of N2 fixing planktonic symbiosis from 100-50Mya and were consistent with the symbiont cellular location: symbioses with internal partners are more ancient. An ancestral state reconstruction traced the evolution of traits in DDAs and highlight that the adaptive radiation to the marine environment was likely facilitated by the symbiosis. Our results present the evolutionary nature of DDAs and provide new genetic and phenotypic information for these biogeochemically relevant populations.

Global Rate Variation in Bony Vertebrates

This study investigated long-term substitution rate differences using three calibration points, divergences between lobe-finned vertebrates and ray-finned fish, between mammals and sauropsids, and between holosteans (gar and bowfin) and teleost fish with amino acid sequence data of 625 genes for 25 bony vertebrates. The result showed that the substitution rate was two to three times higher in the stem branches of lobe-finned vertebrates before the mammal-sauropsid divergence than in amniotes. The rate in the stem branch of ray-finned fish before the holostean-teleost fish divergence was also a few times higher than the holostean rate, whereas it was similar to or somewhat slower than the teleost fish rate. The phylogenetic relationship of coelacanth and lungfish with tetrapod was difficult to determine because of the short interval of the divergences. Considering the high rate in the stem branches, the divergences of coelacanth and lungfish from the stem branch were estimated as 408–427 Ma and 399–414 Ma, respectively, with the interval of 9–13 Myr. With the external calibration of the mammal-sauropsid split, the estimated times for ordinal divergences within eutherian mammals tend to be smaller than those in previous studies that used the calibration points within the lineage, with deeper divergences before the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary and shallower ones after the boundary. In contrast the estimated times within birds were larger than those of previous studies, with the divergence between Galliformes and Anseriformes ∼80 Ma and that between Galloanserae and Neoaves 110 Ma.

Reconstruction and prediction of viral disease epidemics

A growing number of infectious pathogens are spreading among geographic regions. Some pathogens that were previously not considered to pose a general threat to human health have emerged at regional and global scales, such as Zika and Ebola Virus Disease. Other pathogens, such as yellow fever virus, were previously thought to be under control but have recently re-emerged, causing new challenges to public health organisations. A wide array of new modelling techniques, aided by increased computing capabilities, novel diagnostic tools, and the increased speed and availability of genomic sequencing allow researchers to identify new pathogens more rapidly, assess the likelihood of geographic spread, and quantify the speed of human-to-human transmission. Despite some initial successes in predicting the spread of acute viral infections, the practicalities and sustainability of such approaches will need to be evaluated in the context of public health responses.

The molecular clock and evolutionary timescales

The molecular clock provides a valuable means of estimating evolutionary timescales from genetic and biochemical data. Proposed in the early 1960s, it was first applied to amino acid sequences and immunological measures of genetic distances between species. The molecular clock has undergone considerable development over the years, and it retains profound relevance in the genomic era. In this mini-review, we describe the history of the molecular clock, its impact on evolutionary theory, the challenges brought by evidence of evolutionary rate variation among species, and the statistical models that have been developed to account for these heterogeneous rates of genetic change. We explain how the molecular clock can be used to infer rates and timescales of evolution, and we list some of the key findings that have been obtained when molecular clocks have been applied to genomic data. Despite the numerous challenges that it has faced over the decades, the molecular clock continues to offer the most effective method of resolving the details of the evolutionary timescale of the Tree of Life.

Phylogenomic history of enigmatic pygmy perches: implications for biogeography, taxonomy and conservation

Pygmy perches (Percichthyidae) are a group of poorly dispersing freshwater fishes that have a puzzling biogeographic disjunction across southern Australia. Current understanding of pygmy perch phylogenetic relationships suggests past east-west migrations across a vast expanse of now arid habitat in central southern Australia, a region lacking contemporary rivers. Pygmy perches also represent a threatened group with confusing taxonomy and potentially cryptic species diversity. Here, we present the first study of the evolutionary history of pygmy perches based on genome-wide information. Data from 13 991 ddRAD loci and a concatenated sequence of 1 075 734 bp were generated for all currently described and potentially cryptic species. Phylogenetic relationships, biogeographic history and cryptic diversification were inferred using a framework that combines phylogenomics, species delimitation and estimation of divergence times. The genome-wide phylogeny clarified the biogeographic history of pygmy perches, demonstrating multiple east-west events of divergence within the group across the Australian continent. These results also resolved discordance between nuclear and mitochondrial data from a previous study. In addition, we propose three cryptic species within a southwestern species complex. The finding of potentially new species demonstrates that pygmy perches may be even more susceptible to ecological and demographic threats than previously thought. Our results have substantial implications for improving conservation legislation of pygmy perch lineages, especially in southwestern Western Australia.

A comparison of methods for estimating substitution rates from ancient DNA sequence data

Background

Phylogenetic analysis of DNA from modern and ancient samples allows the reconstruction of important demographic and evolutionary processes. A critical component of these analyses is the estimation of evolutionary rates, which can be calibrated using information about the ages of the samples. However, the reliability of these rate estimates can be negatively affected by among-lineage rate variation and non-random sampling. Using a simulation study, we compared the performance of three phylogenetic methods for inferring evolutionary rates from time-structured data sets: regression of root-to-tip distances, least-squares dating, and Bayesian inference. We also applied these three methods to time-structured mitogenomic data sets from six vertebrate species.

Results

Our results from 12 simulation scenarios show that the three methods produce reliable estimates when the substitution rate is high, rate variation is low, and samples of similar ages are not all grouped together in the tree (i.e., low phylo-temporal clustering). The interaction of these factors is particularly important for least-squares dating and Bayesian estimation of evolutionary rates. The three estimation methods produced consistent estimates of rates across most of the six mitogenomic data sets, with sequence data from horses being an exception.

Conclusions

We recommend that phylogenetic studies of ancient DNA sequences should use multiple methods of inference and test for the presence of temporal signal, among-lineage rate variation, and phylo-temporal clustering in the data.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12862-018-1192-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.