Warmer winters reduce frog fecundity and shift breeding phenology, which consequently alters larval development and metamorphic timing

A reversal of the shift towards earlier spring phenology in several Mediterranean reptiles and amphibians during the 1998-2013 warming slowdown

Herps, especially amphibians, are particularly susceptible to climate change, as temperature tightly controls many parameters of their biological cycle-above all, their phenology. The timing of herps' activity or migration period-in particular the dates of their first appearance in spring and first breeding-and the shift to earlier dates in response to warming since the last quarter of the 20^th century has often been described up to now as a nearly monotonic trend towards earlier phenological events. In this study, we used citizen science data opportunistically collected on reptiles and amphibians in the northern Mediterranean basin over a period of 32 years to explore temporal variations in herp phenology. For 17 common species, we measured shifts in the date of the species' first spring appearance-which may be the result of current changes in climate-and regressed the first appearance date against temperatures and precipitations. Our results confirmed the expected overall trend towards earlier first spring appearances from 1983 to 1997, and show that the first appearance date of both reptiles and amphibians fits well with the temperature in late winter. However, the trend towards earlier dates was stopped or even reversed in most species between 1998 and 2013. We interpret this reversal as a response to cooling related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the late winter and early spring. During the positive NAO episodes, for certain species only (mainly amphibians), the effect of a warm weather, which tends to advance the phenology, seems to be counterbalanced by the adverse effects of the relative dryness.

Life history tactics shape amphibians' demographic responses to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Over the last three decades, climate abnormalities have been reported to be involved in biodiversity decline by affecting population dynamics. A growing number of studies have shown that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences the demographic parameters of a wide range of plant and animal taxa in different ways. Life history theory could help to understand these different demographic responses to the NAO. Indeed, theory states that the impact of weather variation on a species' demographic traits should depend on its position along the fast-slow continuum. In particular, it is expected that NAO would have a higher impact on recruitment than on adult survival in slow species, while the opposite pattern is expected occur in fast species. To test these predictions, we used long-term capture-recapture datasets (more than 15,000 individuals marked from 1965 to 2015) on different surveyed populations of three amphibian species in Western Europe: Triturus cristatus, Bombina variegata, and Salamandra salamandra. Despite substantial intraspecific variation, our study revealed that these three species differ in their position on a slow-fast gradient of pace of life. Our results also suggest that the differences in life history tactics influence amphibian responses to NAO fluctuations: Adult survival was most affected by the NAO in the species with the fastest pace of life (T. cristatus), whereas recruitment was most impacted in species with a slower pace of life (B. variegata and S. salamandra). In the context of climate change, our findings suggest that the capacity of organisms to deal with future changes in NAO values could be closely linked to their position on the fast-slow continuum.

Climate change alters the reproductive phenology and investment of a lacustrine fish, the three-spine stickleback

High-latitude lakes are particularly sensitive to the effects of global climate change, demonstrating earlier ice breakup, longer ice-free seasons, and increased water temperatures. Such physical changes have implications for diverse life-history traits in taxa across entire lake food webs. Here, we use a five-decade time series from an Alaskan lake to explore effects of climate change on growth and reproduction of a widely distributed lacustrine fish, the three-spine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We used multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models to describe trends in the mean length for multiple size classes and to explore the influence of physical (date of ice breakup, surface water temperature) and biological (density of con- and heterospecifics) factors. As predicted, mean size of age 1 and older fish at the end of the growing season increased across years with earlier ice breakup and warmer temperatures. In contrast, mean size of age 0 fish decreased over time. Overall, lower fish density and warmer water temperatures were associated with larger size for all cohorts. Earlier ice breakup was associated with larger size for age 1 and older fish but, paradoxically, with smaller size of age 0 fish. To explore this latter result, we used mixing models on age 0 size distributions, which revealed an additional cohort in years with early ice breakup, lowering the mean size of age 0 fish. Moreover, early ice breakup was associated with earlier breeding, evidenced by earlier capture of age 0 fish. Our results suggest that early ice breakup altered both timing and frequency of breeding; three-spine stickleback spawned earlier and more often in response to earlier ice breakup date. While previous studies have shown the influence of changing conditions in northern lakes on breeding timing and growth, this is the first to document increased breeding frequency, highlighting another pathway by which climate change can alter the ecology of northern lakes.

Amphibian breeding phenology trends under climate change: predicting the past to forecast the future

Global climate warming is predicted to hasten the onset of spring breeding by anuran amphibians in seasonal environments. Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals' prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads' eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. Using the model to estimate of past dates of spring breeding (i.e. retrodiction) indicated that even three decades of data were insufficient to discern any appreciable phenological trend in these toads. However, by employing weather data dating back to 1876, I detected a significant trend over 140 years towards earlier spring emergence by the toads by less than half a day/decade, while, over the same period of time, average annual air temperature and annual precipitation had both increased. Changes in the springtime breeding phenology for late-breeding species, such as Fowler's Toads, therefore may conform to expectations of earlier breeding under global warming. Improved understanding of the environmental cues that bring organisms out of winter dormancy will enable better interpretation of long-term phenological trends.

Non-target effects of a glyphosate-based herbicide on Common toad larvae (Bufo bufo, Amphibia) and associated algae are altered by temperature

BACKGROUND

Glyphosate-based herbicides are the most widely used pesticides in agriculture, horticulture, municipalities and private gardens that can potentially contaminate nearby water bodies inhabited by amphibians and algae. Moreover, the development and diversity of these aquatic organisms could also be affected by human-induced climate change that might lead to more periods with extreme temperatures. However, to what extent non-target effects of these herbicides on amphibians or algae are altered by varying temperature is not well known.

METHODS

We studied effects of five concentrations of the glyphosate-based herbicide formulation Roundup PowerFlex (0, 1.5, 3, 4 mg acid equivalent glyphosate L-1 as a one time addition and a pulse treatment of totally 4 mg a.e. glyphosate L-1) on larval development of Common toads (Bufo bufo, L.; Amphibia: Anura) and associated algae communities under two temperature regimes (15 vs. 20 °C).

RESULTS

Herbicide contamination reduced tail growth (-8%), induced the occurrence of tail deformations (i.e. lacerated or crooked tails) and reduced algae diversity (-6%). Higher water temperature increased tadpole growth (tail and body length (tl/bl) +66%, length-to-width ratio +4%) and decreased algae diversity (-21%). No clear relation between herbicide concentrations and tadpole growth or algae density or diversity was observed. Interactive effects of herbicides and temperature affected growth parameters, tail deformation and tadpole mortality indicating that the herbicide effects are temperature-dependent. Remarkably, herbicide-temperature interactions resulted in deformed tails in 34% of all herbicide treated tadpoles at 15 °C whereas no tail deformations were observed for the herbicide-free control at 15 °C or any tadpole at 20 °C; herbicide-induced mortality was higher at 15 °C but lower at 20 °C.

DISCUSSION

These herbicide- and temperature-induced changes may have decided effects on ecological interactions in freshwater ecosystems. Although no clear dose-response effect was seen, the presence of glyphosate was decisive for an effect, suggesting that the lowest observed effect concentration (LOEC) in our study was 1.5 mg a.e. glyphosate L-1 water. Overall, our findings also question the relevance of pesticide risk assessments conducted at standard temperatures.

A phenological shift in the time of recruitment of the shipworm, Teredo navalis L., mirrors marine climate change

For many species, seasonal changes in key environmental variables such as food availability, light, and temperature drive the timing ("phenology") of major life-history events. Extensive evidence from terrestrial, freshwater, and marine habitats shows that global warming is changing the timings of many biological events; however, few of these studies have investigated the effects of climate change on the phenology of larval recruitment in marine invertebrates. Here, we studied temperature-related phenological shifts in the breeding season of the shipworm Teredo navalis (Mollusca, Bivalvia). We compared data for the recruitment period of T. navalis along the Swedish west coast during 2004-2006 with similar data from 1971-1973, and related differences in recruitment timing to changes in sea surface temperature over the same period. We found no significant shift in the timing of onset of recruitment over this ~30-year time span, but the end of recruitment was an average of 26 days later in recent years, leading to significantly longer recruitment periods. These changes correlated strongly with increased sea surface temperatures and coincided with published thermal tolerances for reproduction in T. navalis. Our findings are broadly comparable with other reports of phenological shifts in marine species, and suggest that warmer sea surface temperatures are increasing the likelihood of successful subannual reproduction and intensifying recruitment of T. navalis in this region.

Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long-lived amphibian

Weather fluctuations have been demonstrated to affect demographic traits in many species. In long-lived organisms, their impact on adult survival might be buffered by the evolution of traits that reduce variation in interannual adult survival. For example, skipping breeding is an effective behavioral mechanism that may limit yearly variation in adult survival when harsh weather conditions occur; however, this in turn would likely lead to strong variation in recruitment. Yet, only a few studies to date have examined the impact of weather variation on survival, recruitment and breeding probability simultaneously in different populations of the same species. To fill this gap, we studied the impact of spring temperatures and spring rainfall on survival, on reproductive skipping behavior and on recruitment in five populations of a long-lived amphibian, the yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata). Based on capture-recapture data, our findings demonstrate that survival depends on interactions between age, population and weather variation. Varying weather conditions in the spring result in strong variation in the survival of immature toads, whereas they have little effect on adult toads. Breeding probability depends on both the individual's previous reproductive status and on the weather conditions during the current breeding season, leading to high interannual variation in recruitment. Crucially, we found that the impact of weather variation on demographic traits is largely context dependent and may thus differ sharply between populations. Our results suggest that studies predicting the impact of climate change on population dynamics should be taken with caution when the relationship between climate and demographic traits is established using only one population or few populations. We therefore highly recommend further research that includes surveys replicated in a substantial number of populations to account for context-dependent variation in demographic processes.

Snow cover and late fall movement influence wood frog survival during an unusually cold winter

Understanding how organisms will respond to altered winter conditions is hampered by a paucity of information on the winter ecology for many species. Amphibians are sensitive to environmental temperature and moisture conditions and may be vulnerable to changes in winter climate. We used a combination of radio telemetry and field enclosures to monitor survival of the freeze-tolerant wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus) during the unusually cold winter of 2013-2014. We experimentally manipulated snow cover to determine the effect of snow removal on winter survival. In addition, we placed a group of untracked frogs at locations used by tracked frogs prior to long-distance late fall movement to investigate whether late fall movement entailed survival consequences. Winter survival was highest (75.3 %) among frogs at post-movement locations that received natural snow cover. The odds of surviving the winter for frogs in the snow removal treatment was only 21.6 % that of frogs in the natural snow treatment. Likewise, paired frogs placed at pre-fall movement locations had only 35.1 % the odds of surviving as tracked frogs at post-fall movement locations. A comparison of a priori models that included microhabitat conditions measured at wood frog overwintering locations revealed that the minimum temperature experienced and the depth of the frog in the substrate explained additional variation in winter survival. Our results suggest that acute exposure to lethal temperature conditions is the most likely cause of mortality during this study, rather than energy exhaustion or desiccation. They also demonstrate the importance of snow cover to the winter survival of wood frogs.

Geophysiology of Wood Frogs: Landscape Patterns of Prevalence of Disease and Circulating Hormone Concentrations across the Eastern Range

One of the major challenges for conservation physiologists is to determine how current or future environmental conditions relate to the health of animals at the population level. In this study, we measured prevalence of disease, mean condition of the body, and mean resting levels of corticosterone and testosterone in a total of 28 populations across the years 2011 and 2012, and correlated these measures of health to climatic suitability of habitat, using estimates from a model of the ecological niche of the wood frog's geographic range. Using the core-periphery hypothesis as a theoretical framework, we predicted a higher prevalence and intensity of infection of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and ranaviruses, two major amphibian pathogens causing disease, and higher resting levels of circulating corticosterone, an indicator of allostatic load incurred from living in marginal habitats. We found that Bd infections were rare (2% of individuals tested), while infections with ranavirus were much more common: ranavirus-infected individuals were found in 92% of ponds tested over the 2 years. Contrary to our predictions, rates of infection with ranaviruses were positively correlated with quality of the habitat with the highest prevalence at the core of the range, and plasma corticosterone concentrations measured when frogs were at rest were not correlated with quality of the habitat, the prevalence of ranavirus, or the intensity of infection. Prevalence and mean viral titers of ranavirus infection were higher in 2012 than in 2011, which coincided with lower levels of circulating corticosterone and testosterone and an extremely early time of breeding due to relatively higher temperatures during the winter. In addition, the odds of having a ranavirus infection increased with decreased body condition, and if animals had an infection, viral titers were positively correlated to levels of circulating testosterone concentration. By resolving these patterns, experiments can be designed to test hypotheses about the mechanisms that produce them, such as whether transmission of the ranavirus and tolerance of the host are greater or whether virulence is lower in populations within core habitats. While there is debate about which metrics serve as the best bioindicators of population health, the findings of this study demonstrate the importance of long-term monitoring of multiple physiological parameters to better understand the dynamic relationship between the environment and the health of wildlife populations over space and time.