Genetic constraints on adaptation to a changing environment

High evolutionary constraints limited adaptive responses to past climate changes in toad skulls

Interactions among traits that build a complex structure may be represented as genetic covariation and correlation. Genetic correlations may act as constraints, deflecting the evolutionary response from the direction of natural selection. We investigated the relative importance of drift, selection, and constraints in driving skull divergence in a group of related toad species. The distributional range of these species encompasses very distinct habitats with important climatic differences and the species are primarily distinguished by differences in their skulls. Some parts of the toad skull, such as the snout, may have functional relevance in reproductive ecology, detecting water cues. Thus, we hypothesized that the species skull divergence was driven by natural selection associated with climatic variation. However, given that all species present high correlations among skull traits, our second prediction was of high constraints deflecting the response to selection. We first extracted the main morphological direction that is expected to be subjected to selection by using within- and between-species covariance matrices. We then used evolutionary regressions to investigate whether divergence along this direction is explained by climatic variation between species. We also used quantitative genetics models to test for a role of random drift versus natural selection in skull divergence and to reconstruct selection gradients along species phylogeny. Climatic variables explained high proportions of between-species variation in the most selected axis. However, most evolutionary responses were not in the direction of selection, but aligned with the direction of allometric size, the dimension of highest phenotypic variance in the ancestral population. We conclude that toad species have responded to selection related to climate in their skulls, yet high evolutionary constraints dominated species divergence and may limit species responses to future climate change.

Environmental variability and the evolution of the glucocorticoid receptor (Nr3c1) in African starlings

One of the primary ways that organisms cope with environmental change is through regulation of the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, the neuroendocrine system that controls reactions to stress. Variation in genes regulating the HPA axis - particularly the glucocorticoid receptor - may facilitate adaptation to changing climatic conditions by altering expression. Here we examine signatures of selection on the glucocorticoid receptor gene (Nr3c1) in African starlings that inhabit a range of environments, including those with variable climatic conditions. To investigate potential adaptive mechanisms underlying the vertebrate stress response, we sequence the Nr3c1 gene in 27 species of African starlings. Although we find some evidence of positive selection, substitution rate is negatively correlated with variance in precipitation. This suggests climatic cycling in sub-Saharan Africa may have resulted in lower substitution rates to maintain a successful coping strategy. When environmental conditions fluctuate rapidly, variation in the strength of purifying selection can explain evolutionary rate variation.

RESILIENCE TO DROUGHTS IN MAMMALS: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR ESTIMATING VULNERABILITY OF A SINGLE SPECIES

ABSTRACT The frequency and severity of droughts in certain areas is increasing as a consequence of climate change. The associated environmental challenges, including high temperatures, low food, and water availability, have affected, and will affect, many populations. Our aims are to review the behavioral, physiological, and morphological adaptations of mammals to arid environments, and to aid research- ers and nature conservationists about which traits they should study to assess whether or not their study species will be able to cope with droughts. We provide a suite of traits that should be considered when making predictions about species resilience to drought. We define and differentiate between general adaptations, specialized adaptations, and exaptations, and argue that specialized adaptations are of little interest in establishing how nondesert specialists will cope with droughts. Attention should be placed on general adaptations of semidesert species and assess whether these exist as exaptations in nondesert species. We conclude that phenotypic flexibility is the most important general adaptation that may promote species resilience. Thus, to assess whether a species will be able to cope with increasing aridity, it is important to establish the degree offlexibility of traits identified in semidesert species that confer afitness advantage under drying conditions.

Global change, life-history complexity and the potential for evolutionary rescue

Most organisms have complex life cycles, and in marine taxa, larval life‐history stages tend to be more sensitive to environmental stress than adult (reproductive) life‐history stages. While there are several models of stage‐specific adaptation across the life history, the extent to which differential sensitivity to environmental stress (defined here as reductions in absolute fitness across the life history) affects the tempo of adaptive evolution to change remains unclear. We used a heuristic model to explore how commonly observed features associated with marine complex life histories alter a population's capacity to cope with environmental change. We found that increasing the complexity of the life history generally reduces the evolutionary potential of taxa to cope with environmental change. Our model also predicted that genetic correlations in stress tolerance between stages, levels of genetic variance in each stage, and the relative plasticity of different stages, all interact to affect the maximum rate of environmental change that will permit species persistence. Our results suggest that marine organisms with complex life cycles are particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic global change, but we lack empirical estimates of key parameters for most species.

Detecting and Quantifying Changing Selection Intensities from Time-Sampled Polymorphism Data

During his well-known debate with Fisher regarding the phenotypic dataset of Panaxia dominula, Wright suggested fluctuating selection as a potential explanation for the observed change in allele frequencies. This model has since been invoked in a number of analyses, with the focus of discussion centering mainly on random or oscillatory fluctuations of selection intensities. Here, we present a novel method to consider nonrandom changes in selection intensities using Wright-Fisher approximate Bayesian (ABC)-based approaches, in order to detect and evaluate a change in selection strength from time-sampled data. This novel method jointly estimates the position of a change point as well as the strength of both corresponding selection coefficients (and dominance for diploid cases) from the allele trajectory. The simulation studies of this method reveal the combinations of parameter ranges and input values that optimize performance, thus indicating optimal experimental design strategies. We apply this approach to both the historical dataset of P. dominula in order to shed light on this historical debate, as well as to whole-genome time-serial data from influenza virus in order to identify sites with changing selection intensities in response to drug treatment.

How Do Species Interactions Affect Evolutionary Dynamics Across Whole Communities?

Theories of how species evolve in changing environments mostly consider single species in isolation or pairs of interacting species. Yet all organisms live in diverse communities containing many hundreds of species. This review discusses how species interactions influence the evolution of constituent species across whole communities. When species interactions are weak or inconsistent, evolutionary dynamics should be predictable by factors identified by single-species theory. Stronger species interactions, however, can alter evolutionary outcomes and either dampen or promote evolution of constituent species depending on the number of species and the distribution of interaction strengths across the interaction network. Genetic interactions, such as horizontal gene transfer, might also affect evolutionary outcomes. These evolutionary mechanisms in turn affect whole-community properties, such as the level of ecosystem functioning. Successful management of both ecosystems and focal species requires new understanding of evolutionary interactions across whole communities.

Evolutionary rescue can be impeded by temporary environmental amelioration

Rapid evolutionary adaptation has the potential to rescue from extinction populations experiencing environmental changes. Little is known, however, about the impact of short-term environmental fluctuations during long-term environmental deterioration, an intrinsic property of realistic environmental changes. Temporary environmental amelioration arising from such fluctuations could either facilitate evolutionary rescue by allowing population recovery (a positive demographic effect) or impede it by relaxing selection for beneficial mutations required for future survival (a negative population genetic effect). We address this uncertainty in an experiment with populations of a bacteriophage virus that evolved under deteriorating conditions (gradually increasing temperature). Periodic environmental amelioration (short periods of reduced temperature) caused demographic recovery during the early phase of the experiment, but ultimately reduced the frequency of evolutionary rescue. These experimental results suggest that environmental fluctuations could reduce the potential of evolutionary rescue.

Catch Me if You Can: Adaptation from Standing Genetic Variation to a Moving Phenotypic Optimum

Adaptation lies at the heart of Darwinian evolution. Accordingly, numerous studies have tried to provide a formal framework for the description of the adaptive process. Of these, two complementary modeling approaches have emerged: While so-called adaptive-walk models consider adaptation from the successive fixation of de novo mutations only, quantitative genetic models assume that adaptation proceeds exclusively from preexisting standing genetic variation. The latter approach, however, has focused on short-term evolution of population means and variances rather than on the statistical properties of adaptive substitutions. Our aim is to combine these two approaches by describing the ecological and genetic factors that determine the genetic basis of adaptation from standing genetic variation in terms of the effect-size distribution of individual alleles. Specifically, we consider the evolution of a quantitative trait to a gradually changing environment. By means of analytical approximations, we derive the distribution of adaptive substitutions from standing genetic variation, that is, the distribution of the phenotypic effects of those alleles from the standing variation that become fixed during adaptation. Our results are checked against individual-based simulations. We find that, compared to adaptation from de novo mutations, (i) adaptation from standing variation proceeds by the fixation of more alleles of small effect and (ii) populations that adapt from standing genetic variation can traverse larger distances in phenotype space and, thus, have a higher potential for adaptation if the rate of environmental change is fast rather than slow.

The danger within: the role of genetic, behavioural and ecological factors in population persistence of colour polymorphic species

Polymorphic species have been the focus of important work in evolutionary biology. It has been suggested that colour polymorphic species have specific evolutionary and population dynamics that enable them to persist through environmental changes better than less variable species. We suggest that recent empirical and theoretical work indicates that polymorphic species may be more vulnerable to extinction than previously thought. This vulnerability arises because these species often have a number of correlated sexual, behavioural, life history and ecological traits, which can have a simple genetic underpinning. When exacerbated by environmental change, these alternate strategies can lead to conflict between morphs at the genomic and population levels, which can directly or indirectly affect population and evolutionary dynamics. In this perspective, we identify a number of ways in which the nature of the correlated traits, their underpinning genetic architecture, and the inevitable interactions between colour morphs can result in a reduction in population fitness. The principles illustrated here apply to all kinds of discrete polymorphism (e.g. behavioural syndromes), but we focus primarily on colour polymorphism because they are well studied. We urge further empirical investigation of the genetic architecture and interactions in polymorphic species to elucidate the impact on population fitness.

The concept of fitness in fluctuating environments

Fitness is a central concept in evolutionary biology, but there is no unified definition. We review recent theoretical developments showing that including fluctuating environments and density dependence has important implications for how differences among phenotypes in their contributions to future generations should be quantified. The rate of phenotypic evolution will vary through time because of environmental stochasticity. Density dependence may produce fluctuating selection for large growth rates at low densities but for larger carrying capacities when population sizes are large. In general, including ecologically realistic assumptions when defining the concept of fitness is crucial for estimating the potential of evolutionary rescue of populations affected by environmental perturbations such as climate change.

The temporal distribution of directional gradients under selection for an optimum

Temporal variation in phenotypic selection is often attributed to environmental change causing movements of the adaptive surface relating traits to fitness, but this connection is rarely established empirically. Fluctuating phenotypic selection can be measured by the variance and autocorrelation of directional selection gradients through time. However, the dynamics of these gradients depend not only on environmental changes altering the fitness surface, but also on evolution of the phenotypic distribution. Therefore, it is unclear to what extent variability in selection gradients can inform us about the underlying drivers of their fluctuations. To investigate this question, we derive the temporal distribution of directional gradients under selection for a phenotypic optimum that is either constant or fluctuates randomly in various ways in a finite population. Our analytical results, combined with population- and individual-based simulations, show that although some characteristic patterns can be distinguished, very different types of change in the optimum (including a constant optimum) can generate similar temporal distributions of selection gradients, making it difficult to infer the processes underlying apparent fluctuating selection. Analyzing changes in phenotype distributions together with changes in selection gradients should prove more useful for inferring the mechanisms underlying estimated fluctuating selection.

Hybridization facilitates evolutionary rescue

The resilience of populations to rapid environmental degradation is a major concern for biodiversity conservation. When environments deteriorate to lethal levels, species must evolve to adapt to the new conditions to avoid extinction. Here, we test the hypothesis that evolutionary rescue may be enabled by hybridization, because hybridization increases genetic variability. Using experimental evolution, we show that interspecific hybrid populations of Saccharomyces yeast adapt to grow in more highly degraded environments than intraspecific and parental crosses, resulting in survival rates far exceeding those of their ancestors. We conclude that hybridization can increase evolutionary responsiveness and that taxa able to exchange genes with distant relatives may better survive rapid environmental change.

Fisher's geometric model with a moving optimum

Fisher's geometric model has been widely used to study the effects of pleiotropy and organismic complexity on phenotypic adaptation. Here, we study a version of Fisher's model in which a population adapts to a gradually moving optimum. Key parameters are the rate of environmental change, the dimensionality of phenotype space, and the patterns of mutational and selectional correlations. We focus on the distribution of adaptive substitutions, that is, the multivariate distribution of the phenotypic effects of fixed beneficial mutations. Our main results are based on an “adaptive-walk approximation,” which is checked against individual-based simulations. We find that (1) the distribution of adaptive substitutions is strongly affected by the ecological dynamics and largely depends on a single composite parameter γ, which scales the rate of environmental change by the “adaptive potential” of the population; (2) the distribution of adaptive substitution reflects the shape of the fitness landscape if the environment changes slowly, whereas it mirrors the distribution of new mutations if the environment changes fast; (3) in contrast to classical models of adaptation assuming a constant optimum, with a moving optimum, more complex organisms evolve via larger adaptive steps.

Rapid evolution of quantitative traits: theoretical perspectives

An increasing number of studies demonstrate phenotypic and genetic changes in natural populations that are subject to climate change, and there is hope that some of these changes will contribute to avoiding species extinctions ('evolutionary rescue'). Here, we review theoretical models of rapid evolution in quantitative traits that can shed light on the potential for adaptation to a changing climate. Our focus is on quantitative-genetic models with selection for a moving phenotypic optimum. We point out that there is no one-to-one relationship between the rate of adaptation and population survival, because the former depends on relative fitness and the latter on absolute fitness. Nevertheless, previous estimates that sustainable rates of genetically based change usually do not exceed 0.1 haldanes (i.e., phenotypic standard deviations per generation) are probably correct. Survival can be greatly facilitated by phenotypic plasticity, and heritable variation in plasticity can further speed up genetic evolution. Multivariate selection and genetic correlations are frequently assumed to constrain adaptation, but this is not necessarily the case and depends on the geometric relationship between the fitness landscape and the structure of genetic variation. Similar conclusions hold for adaptation to shifting spatial gradients. Recent models of adaptation in multispecies communities indicate that the potential for rapid evolution is strongly influenced by interspecific competition.

Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change in fish

The physical and ecological 'fingerprints' of anthropogenic climate change over the past century are now well documented in many environments and taxa. We reviewed the evidence for phenotypic responses to recent climate change in fish. Changes in the timing of migration and reproduction, age at maturity, age at juvenile migration, growth, survival and fecundity were associated primarily with changes in temperature. Although these traits can evolve rapidly, only two studies attributed phenotypic changes formally to evolutionary mechanisms. The correlation-based methods most frequently employed point largely to 'fine-grained' population responses to environmental variability (i.e. rapid phenotypic changes relative to generation time), consistent with plastic mechanisms. Ultimately, many species will likely adapt to long-term warming trends overlaid on natural climate oscillations. Considering the strong plasticity in all traits studied, we recommend development and expanded use of methods capable of detecting evolutionary change, such as the long term study of selection coefficients and temporal shifts in reaction norms, and increased attention to forecasting adaptive change in response to the synergistic interactions of the multiple selection pressures likely to be associated with climate change.

Natural variation and the capacity to adapt to ocean acidification in the keystone sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus

A rapidly growing body of literature documents the potential negative effects of CO2 -driven ocean acidification (OA) on marine organisms. However, nearly all this work has focused on the effects of future conditions on modern populations, neglecting the role of adaptation. Rapid evolution can alter demographic responses to environmental change, ultimately affecting the likelihood of population persistence, but the capacity for adaptation will differ among populations and species. Here, we measure the capacity of the ecologically important purple sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus to adapt to OA, using a breeding experiment to estimate additive genetic variance for larval size (an important component of fitness) under future high-pCO2 /low-pH conditions. Although larvae reared under future conditions were smaller than those reared under present-day conditions, we show that there is also abundant genetic variation for body size under elevated pCO2 , indicating that this trait can evolve. The observed heritability of size was 0.40 ± 0.32 (95% CI) under low pCO2 , and 0.50 ± 0.30 under high-pCO2 conditions. Accounting for the observed genetic variation in models of future larval size and demographic rates substantially alters projections of performance for this species in the future ocean. Importantly, our model shows that after incorporating the effects of adaptation, the OA-driven decrease in population growth rate is up to 50% smaller, than that predicted by the 'no-adaptation' scenario. Adults used in the experiment were collected from two sites on the coast of the Northeast Pacific that are characterized by different pH regimes, as measured by autonomous sensors. Comparing results between sites, we also found subtle differences in larval size under high-pCO2 rearing conditions, consistent with local adaptation to carbonate chemistry in the field. These results suggest that spatially varying selection may help to maintain genetic variation necessary for adaptation to future OA.