The disappearing mammal fauna of northern Australia: context, cause, and response

Australian Indigenous Land Management, Ecological Knowledge and Languages for Conservation

Many Indigenous Australians hold cultural, ecological and language knowledge, but common representations of Indigenous Australians focus on social disadvantage and poor comparisons with other Australians in education, employment and health. Indigenous Land Management works with Indigenous people's cultural, ecological and language expertise, employing Indigenous people in activities contributing to biodiversity conservation. The Interplay research surveyed 841 Indigenous people in remote communities. Those employed in land management reported greater participation in cultural activities, language knowledge, and belief that their land was looked after. These related assets provide an opportunity for policy approaches based on Indigenous people's strengths and contribution to Australia.

The legacy of colonial fire management policies on traditional livelihoods and ecological sustainability in savannas: Impacts, consequences, new directions

Land occupation and management systems have defined fire regimes and landscapes for millennia. The savanna biome is responsible for 86% of all fire events, contributes to 10% of the total carbon emissions annually and is home to 10% of the human population. European colonization has been associated with the implementation of fire suppression policies in many tropical savanna regions, markedly disrupting traditional fire management practices and transforming ecosystems. In this paper we assess savanna burning approaches from pre-colonial to contemporary eras in three regions: northern Australia, southern Africa and Brazil. In these regions, fire suppression policies have led to (i) conflicts between government authorities and local communities; (ii) frequent late dry season wildfires and/or (iii) woody encroachment. Such consequences are facilitating changes to fire management policies, including recognition and incorporation of traditional ecological knowledge in contemporary community-based adaptive savanna fire management. Such programs include implementation of prescribed early dry season fires and, in some regions, generating income opportunities for rural and traditional communities through the reduction of late dry season wildfires and associated greenhouse gas emissions. We present a brief history of fire management policies in these three important savanna regions, and identify ongoing challenges for implementation of culturally and ecologically sustainable fire management policies.

Dietary analysis of an uncharacteristic population of the Mountain Pygmy-possum (Burramys parvus) in the Kosciuszko National Park, New South Wales, Australia

Background

The Mountain Pygmy-possum (Burramys parvus) is a critically endangered marsupial, endemic to alpine regions of southern Australia. We investigated the diet of a recently discovered population of the possum in northern Kosciuszko National Park, NSW, Australia. This new population occurs at elevations well below the once-presumed lower elevation limit of 1,600 m.

Goals and Methods

Faecal material was analysed to determine if dietary composition differed between individuals in the newly discovered northern population and those in the higher elevation southern population, and to examine how diet was influenced by rainfall in the southern population and seasonal changes in resource availability in the northern population.

Results and Discussion

The diet of B. parvus in the northern population comprised of arthropods, fruits and seeds. Results indicate the diet of both populations shares most of the same invertebrate orders and plant species. However, in the absence of preferred food types available to the southern population, individuals of the northern population opportunistically consumed different species that were similar to those preferred by individuals in higher altitude populations. Differing rainfall amounts had a significant effect on diet, with years of below average rainfall having a greater percentage composition and diversity of invertebrates. Seasonal variation was also recorded, with the northern population increasing the diversity of invertebrates in their diet during the Autumn months when Bogong Moths (Agrotis infusa) were absent from those sites, raising questions about the possum's dependence on the species.

Conclusions

Measurable effects of rainfall amount and seasonal variation on the dietary composition suggest that predicted climatic variability will have a significant impact on its diet, potentially impacting its future survival. Findings suggest that it is likely that B. parvus is not restricted by dietary requirements to its current pattern of distribution. This new understanding needs to be considered when formulating future conservation strategies for this critically endangered species.

The impact of human activities on Australian wildlife

Increasing human population size and the concomitant expansion of urbanisation significantly impact natural ecosystems and native fauna globally. Successful conservation management relies on precise information on the factors associated with wildlife population decline, which are challenging to acquire from natural populations. Wildlife Rehabilitation Centres (WRC) provide a rich source of this information. However, few researchers have conducted large-scale longitudinal studies, with most focussing on narrow taxonomic ranges, suggesting that WRC-associated data remains an underutilised resource, and may provide a fuller understanding of the anthropogenic threats facing native fauna. We analysed admissions and outcomes data from a WRC in Queensland, Australia Zoo Wildlife Hospital, to determine the major factors driving admissions and morbidity of native animals in a region experiencing rapid and prolonged urban expansion. We studied 31,626 admissions of 83 different species of native birds, reptiles, amphibians, marsupials and eutherian mammals from 2006 to 2017. While marsupial admissions were highest (41.3%), admissions increased over time for all species and exhibited seasonal variation (highest in Spring to Summer), consistent with known breeding seasons. Causes for admission typically associated with human influenced activities were dominant and exhibited the highest mortality rates. Car strikes were the most common reason for admission (34.7%), with dog attacks (9.2%), entanglements (7.2%), and cat attacks (5.3%) also high. Admissions of orphaned young and overt signs of disease were significant at 24.6% and 9.7%, respectively. Mortality rates were highest following dog attacks (72.7%) and car strikes (69.1%) and lowest in orphaned animals (22.1%). Our results show that WRC databases offer rich opportunities for wildlife monitoring and provide quantification of the negative impacts of human activities on ecosystem stability and wildlife health. The imminent need for urgent, proactive conservation management to ameliorate the negative impacts of human activities on wildlife is clearly evident from our results.

The threats to Australia’s imperilled species and implications for a national conservation response

Since European occupation of Australia, human activities have caused the dramatic decline and sometimes extinction of many of the continent’s unique species. Here we provide a comprehensive review of threats to species listed as threatened under Australia’s Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999. Following accepted global categories of threat, we find that invasive species affect the largest number of listed species (1257 species, or 82% of all threatened species); ecosystem modifications (e.g. fire) (74% of listed species) and agricultural activity (57%) are also important. The ranking of threats was largely consistent across taxonomic groups and the degree of species’ endangerment. These results were significantly different (P<0.01) from recent analyses of threats to threatened species globally, which highlighted overexploitation, agriculture and urban development as major causes of decline. Australia is distinct not only in the biodiversity it contains but also in the extent and mixture of processes that threaten the survival of these species. Notably, the IUCN threat classification scheme separates the numerous threats (e.g. urban development, agriculture, mining) that cause habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation, hence further research is required to quantify the net impact of these types of habitat change. We provide feasible suggestions for a more coordinated national approach to threatened species conservation, which could provide decision makers and managers at all levels with improved resources and information on threats and management. Adequate policy, legislative support and funding are critical for ensuring that on-ground management is successful in halting the decline of Australia’s threatened species.

Northern quoll persistence is most sensitive to survivorship of juveniles

Context Projecting the population trajectory of endangered species using models requires conservation practitioners to evaluate how variations in life history parameters may change a population’s viability. This is particularly important for species that occur as fragmented populations and whose densities are naturally low. Simulations may be used to identify conservation actions that have a higher likelihood of reducing a species’ extinction risk. Aims The aim was to apply population viability models to the northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus) under alternative scenarios. Methods The current (baseline) northern quoll demographic trajectories were evaluated using field-collected data derived from monitoring programs. The impact of alternative scenarios of mortality (for example, due to increased predation by introduced predators) and population supplementation (either from populations elsewhere or from captive breeding) on the viability of a northern quoll population was then determined. Key results Under current conditions, individual Pilbara populations of northern quoll are projected to persist for over 20 years. However, these populations are sensitive to extinction events. Population growth rate and local extinction risk were most sensitive to changes in juvenile mortality as low as 5% per annum. Increased mortality of the juvenile age cohort above current levels resulted in a projected decline in population size of 22–54%, with a moderate-to-high chance (20–96%) of local extinction within 20 years. Supplementing the population produced a moderate increase in quoll persistence over this time period. Conclusions Populations of northern quolls in the Pilbara, and potentially elsewhere in their range, are highly sensitive to even small perturbations in juvenile mortality rates. The continued persistence of quoll populations in fragmented refuges is characteristic of a species that functions as a dynamic metapopulation in the face of high environmental perturbations. Implications Increased juvenile mortality above current levels – for example through the spread of cane toads or invasion of feral cats – may have serious implications for the persistence of the current network of northern quoll populations and other mammals that exhibit population fragmentation in arid environments. Estimates of survival rates for the juvenile cohort of quolls would improve diagnosis of a species’ population dynamics as well as inform practitioners of key life-history sensitivities.

Citizen reporting of wildlife interactions can improve impact-reduction programs and support wildlife carers

Context Wildlife can be injured or orphaned through a range of (often anthropogenic) activities, creating need for volunteer rescuers and wildlife carers, of which a substantial number is active in Australia. However, the causes and contributing factors for rescued wildlife are rarely reported, which limits development of response options to these wildlife issues. An understanding of the distribution and number of rescuers and carers in relation to injured and orphaned wildlife allows training and outreach to be targeted around specific seasonal peaks, species and causes of injury. Aims and methods We conducted an analysis of 22723 reports over 7 years to the Bonorong Wildlife Rescue Service in Tasmania, Australia, to determine the frequency of species and types of human–wildlife interaction, the report distances from the central facility, and the report distribution relative to the registered rescuer and carer networks. Key results Mammals accounted for over half of all reports, followed by birds, reptiles and invertebrates. Road trauma was the predominant cause for report, followed by orphans. Disease reports and animal attack were also common. Overall, reporting was highest in late spring and summer, but different seasonality in specific causes and species suggests that targeted response options are needed at different times of year. Areas with higher reporting relative to the number of registered rescuers and carers show where volunteer recruitment can be focussed. Conclusions We used a wildlife reporting dataset to illustrate trends (such as seasonality and species vulnerability) and causes of human–wildlife interaction to inform potential response options. Implications Continued citizen reporting can assist wildlife managers to allocate resources, plan training or recruit additional volunteers, track emerging issues, such as disease and climate-related stressors, and guide the planning of public education and mitigation initiatives, particularly for human-related wildlife issues.

Occupancy and detectability modelling of vertebrates in northern Australia using multiple sampling methods

Understanding where species occur and how difficult they are to detect during surveys is crucial for designing and evaluating monitoring programs, and has broader applications for conservation planning and management. In this study, we modelled occupancy and the effectiveness of six sampling methods at detecting vertebrates across the Top End of northern Australia. We fitted occupancy-detection models to 136 species (83 birds, 33 reptiles, 20 mammals) of 242 recorded during surveys of 333 sites in eight conservation reserves between 2011 and 2016. For modelled species, mean occupancy was highly variable: birds and reptiles ranged from 0.01–0.81 and 0.01–0.49, respectively, whereas mammal occupancy was lower, ranging from 0.02–0.30. Of the 11 environmental covariates considered as potential predictors of occupancy, topographic ruggedness, elevation, maximum temperature, and fire frequency were retained more readily in the top models. Using these models, we predicted species occupancy across the Top End of northern Australia (293,017 km²) and generated species richness maps for each species group. For mammals and reptiles, high richness was associated with rugged terrain, while bird richness was highest in coastal lowland woodlands. On average, detectability of diurnal birds was higher per day of surveys (0.33 ± 0.09) compared with nocturnal birds per night of spotlighting (0.13 ± 0.06). Detectability of reptiles was similar per day/night of pit trapping (0.30 ± 0.09) as per night of spotlighting (0.29 ± 0.11). On average, mammals were highly detectable using motion-sensor cameras for a week (0.36 ± 0.06), with exception of smaller-bodied species. One night of Elliott trapping (0.20 ± 0.06) and spotlighting (0.19 ± 0.06) was more effective at detecting mammals than cage (0.08 ± 0.03) and pit trapping (0.05 ± 0.04). Our estimates of species occupancy and detectability will help inform decisions about how best to redesign a long-running vertebrate monitoring program in the Top End of northern Australia.

Biodiversity responds to increasing climatic extremes in a biome-specific manner

An unprecedented rate of global environmental change is predicted for the next century. The response to this change by ecosystems around the world is highly uncertain. To address this uncertainty, it is critical to understand the potential drivers and mechanisms of change in order to develop more reliable predictions. Australia's Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTERN) has brought together some of the longest running (10-60years) continuous environmental monitoring programs in the southern hemisphere. Here, we compare climatic variables recorded at five LTERN plot network sites during their period of operation and place them into the context of long-term climatic trends. Then, using our unique Australian long-term datasets (total 117 survey years across four biomes), we synthesize results from a series of case studies to test two hypotheses: 1) extreme weather events for each plot network have increased over the last decade, and; 2) trends in biodiversity will be associated with recent climate change, either directly or indirectly through climate-mediated disturbance (wildfire) responses. We examined the biodiversity responses to environmental change for evidence of non-linear behavior. In line with hypothesis 1), an increase in extreme climate events occurred within the last decade for each plot network. For hypothesis 2), climate, wildfire, or both were correlated with biodiversity responses at each plot network, but there was no evidence of non-linear change. However, the influence of climate or fire was context-specific. Biodiversity responded to recent climate change either directly or indirectly as a consequence of changes in fire regimes or climate-mediated fire responses. A national long-term monitoring framework allowed us to find contrasting species abundance or community responses to climate and disturbance across four of the major biomes of Australia, highlighting the need to establish and resource long-term monitoring programs across representative ecosystem types, which are likely to show context-specific responses.

Estuarine crocodiles in a tropical coastal floodplain obtain nutrition from terrestrial prey

The estuarine crocodile (Crocodylus porosus) is one of the largest and most widespread crocodilians in the world. Although considered an apex species, the role of the estuarine crocodile in aquatic foodwebs is poorly understood; we know what crocodiles ingest, but not what nourishes them. In this study, we used a combination of stable isotope measurements (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, and δ³⁴S) and direct feeding observations to identify the source of nutrition of estuarine crocodiles in Kakadu National Park, Northern Australia. Our results show that most crocodiles sampled (size 850 – 4200mm, with 76% of them being > 2.5 m) consume a large variety of prey, however a large proportion of their nutrition is derived from terrestrial prey. Introduced species such as water buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis) and pigs (Sus scrofa) could contribute between 53 and 84% to the nutrition of the sampled crocodiles. The isotopic composition of large crocodiles (total length > 3 m) suggested possible increase in marine prey consumption with size (R² = 0.30; p = 0.005). Additionally, we found crocodiles sampled in the dry season had on average higher terrestrial contributions compared to crocodiles sampled during the wet season (84.1 ± 2.4% versus 55.4 ± 7.0%). Overall, we found that terrestrial prey are important source of nutrition for many crocodiles in this region where introduced herbivorous mammals are abundant.

Estimating the benefit of well-managed protected areas for threatened species conservation

Protected areas are central to global efforts to prevent species extinctions, with many countries investing heavily in their establishment. Yet the designation of protected areas alone can only abate certain threats to biodiversity. Targeted management within protected areas is often required to achieve fully effective conservation within their boundaries. It remains unclear what combination of protected area designation and management is needed to remove the suite of processes that imperil species. Here, using Australia as a case study, we use a dataset on the pressures facing threatened species to determine the role of protected areas and management in conserving imperilled species. We found that protected areas that are not resourced for threat management could remove one or more threats to 1,185 (76%) species and all threats to very few (n = 51, 3%) species. In contrast, a protected area network that is adequately resourced to manage threatening processes within their boundary could remove one or more threats to almost all species (n = 1,551; c. 100%) and all threats to almost half (n = 740, 48%). However, 815 (52%) species face one or more threats that require coordinated conservation actions that protected areas alone could not remove. This research shows that investing in the continued expansion of Australia's protected area network without providing adequate funding for threat management within and beyond the existing protected area network will benefit few threatened species. These findings highlight that as the international community expands the global protected area network in accordance with the 2020 Strategic Plan for Biodiversity, a greater emphasis on the effectiveness of threat management is needed.

Dog and Cat Interactions in a Remote Aboriginal Community

Simple Summary

Australian remote Aboriginal communities commonly have large, free-roaming dog populations and relatively small cat populations. However, cats are becoming increasingly popular pets in these communities and it is essential to determine their potential impacts on wildlife to inform animal management practices. In a small island community, this study provided baseline population demographics and investigated dog and cat roaming behaviours and interspecific interactions. The dog population, estimated at 343 dogs, showed active periods at dawn and dusk. The cat population had doubled in 6 months to approximately 83 cats. Cats were observed roaming mainly from dawn until dusk, possibly avoiding periods when dogs were most active. The majority of cats were observed nonroaming. Three cats, however, were captured roaming during the night when all flightless wildlife were observed on our camera traps, suggesting potential impact on local wildlife through their hunting activities. These baseline data provide evidence on which to base management programs that include cats and their impacts on native wildlife. Further research using the multiple methods piloted in this study are warranted to monitor dog and cat populations and their interactions in this island community.

Abstract

This study examined dog and cat demographics, roaming behaviours, and interspecific interactions in a remote Aboriginal island community using multiple methods. Our results revealed temporal differences between the roaming behaviours of dogs, cats, and wildlife. Dogs showed crepuscular behaviour, being active around dawn (5:30 a.m. to 9:30 a.m.) and dusk (6:00 p.m. and 11:35 p.m.). The majority of cats were active between dawn (6:30 a.m.) and dusk (7:30 p.m.) and travelled shorter distances than dogs. However, some cats were also observed roaming between dusk and dawn, and were likely to be hunting since flightless wildlife were also recorded on our remote-sensing cameras during this time. These baseline data provide evidence to suggest that new management programs are needed to reduce the number of roaming cats and therefore their potential impacts on native wildlife. Collaborations between Aboriginal owners and other stakeholders is necessary to design innovative and effective animal management and policy on the island.

Evaluating the efficacy of a landscape scale feral cat control program using camera traps and occupancy models

The impact of introduced predators is a major factor limiting survivorship and recruitment of many native Australian species. In particular, the feral cat and red fox have been implicated in range reductions and population declines of many conservation dependent species across Australia, including ground-nesting birds and small to medium-sized mammals. The impact of predation by feral cats since their introduction some 200 years ago has altered the structure of native fauna communities and led to the development of landscape-scale threat abatement via baiting programs with the feral cat bait, Eradicat. Demonstrating the effectiveness of broad-scale programs is essential for managers to fine tune delivery and timing of baiting. Efficacy of feral cat baiting at the Fortescue Marsh in the Pilbara, Western Australia was tested using camera traps and occupancy models. There was a significant decrease in probability of site occupancy in baited sites in each of the five years of this study, demonstrating both the effectiveness of aerial baiting for landscape-scale removal of feral cats, and the validity of camera trap monitoring techniques for detecting changes in feral cat occupancy during a five-year baiting program.

Invasive predators represent the greatest extinction threat to the endangered northern bettong (Bettongia tropica)

Context Identification of key threats to endangered species is vital for devising effective management strategies, but may be hindered when relevant data is limited. A population viability approach may overcome this problem. Aims We aimed to determine the population viability of endangered northern bettongs (Bettongia tropica) in north-eastern Australia. We also assessed the key threats to the population resilience and how the population viability responds to increases in mortality rates and changes in fire and drought frequency. Methods Using population viability analysis (PVA) we modelled survival probability of B. tropica populations under likely scenarios, including: (1) increased predation; (2) changes in drought and fire frequency predicted with anthropogenic climate change; and (3) synergistic effects of predation, fire and drought. Key results Population viability models suggest that populations are highly vulnerable to increases in predation by feral cats (Felis catus), and potentially red fox (Vulpes vulpes) should they colonise the area, as juvenile mortality is the main age class driving population viability. If B. tropica become more vulnerable to predators during post-fire vegetation recovery, more frequent fires could exacerbate effects of low-level cat predation. In contrast, it was predicted that populations would be resilient to the greater frequency of droughts expected as a result of climate change, with high probabilities of extinctions only predicted under the unprecedented and unlikely scenario of four drought years in 10. However, since drought and fire are interlinked, the impacts of predation could be more severe with climate change should predation and fire interact to increase B. tropica mortality risk. Conclusion Like other Potoroids, B. tropica appear highly vulnerable to predation by introduced mammalian predators such as feral cats. Implications Managers need information allowing them to recognise scenarios when populations are most vulnerable to potential threats, such as drought, fire and predation. PVA modelling can assess scenarios and allow pro-active management based on predicted responses rather than requiring collection of extensive field data before management actions. Our analysis suggests that assessing and controlling predator populations and thereby minimising predation, particularly of juveniles, should assist in maintaining stability of populations of the northern bettong.

Evaluation of risks for two native mammal species from feral cat baiting in monsoonal tropical northern Australia

Context Feral cats are a significant threat to native wildlife and broad-scale control is required to reduce their impacts. Two toxic baits developed for feral cats, Curiosity® and Hisstory®, have been designed to reduce the risk of baiting to certain non-target species. These baits involve encapsulating the toxin within a hard-shelled delivery vehicle (HSDV) and placing it within a meat attractant. Native animals that chew their food more thoroughly are predicted to avoid poisoning by eating around the HSDV. This prediction has not been tested on wild native mammals in the monsoonal wet–dry tropics of the Northern Territory. Aim The aim of this research was to determine whether northern quolls (Dasyurus hallucatus) and northern brown bandicoots (Isoodon macrourus) would take feral cat baits and ingest the HSDV under natural conditions on Groote Eylandt. Methods We hand-deployed 120 non-toxic baits with a HSDV that contained a biomarker, Rhodamine B, which stains animal whiskers when ingested. The species responsible for bait removal was determined with camera traps, and HSDV ingestion was measured by evaluating Rhodamine B in whiskers removed from animals trapped after baiting. Key results During field trials, 95% of baits were removed within 5 days. Using camera-trap images, we identified the species responsible for taking baits on 65 occasions. All 65 confirmed takes were by native species, with northern quolls taking 42 baits and northern brown bandicoots taking 17. No quolls and only one bandicoot ingested the HSDV. Conclusion The use of the HSDV reduces the potential for quolls and bandicoots to ingest a toxin when they consume feral cat baits. However, high bait uptake by non-target species may reduce the efficacy of cat baiting in some areas. Implications The present study highlighted that in the monsoonal wet–dry tropics, encapsulated baits are likely to minimise poisoning risk to certain native species that would otherwise eat meat baits. However, further research may be required to evaluate risks to other non-target species. Given the threat to biodiversity from feral cats, we see it as critical to continue testing Hisstory® and Curiosity® in live-baiting trials in northern Australia.

Declines in the mammal assemblage of a rugged sandstone environment in Kakadu National Park, Northern Territory, Australia

There has been marked recent decline in the terrestrial mammal fauna across much of northern Australia, with most documentation of such decline for lowland areas. Here we report changes in the assemblage of small mammals in a rugged sandstone environment (Nawurlandja, in Kakadu National Park) over intermittent sampling between 1977 and 2002. Four native mammal species were commonly recorded in the original sampling: sandstone antechinus (Pseudantechinus bilarni), northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus), Arnhem rock-rat (Zyzomys maini) and common rock-rat (Z. argurus). Trap success rates declined significantly for the northern quoll, Arnhem rock-rat and all species combined, but increased for the common rock-rat. Despite being recorded commonly in the initial (1977–79) study, no Arnhem rock-rats were recorded in the most recent (2002) sampling. Trap success rates for northern quoll declined by ~90% from 1977–79 to 2002. The reasons for change are not clear-cut. Notably, all sampling occurred before the arrival of cane toads (Rhinella marina), a factor that has caused severe decline in northern quoll numbers elsewhere. Fire was more frequent in the sampling area in the period preceding the 2002 sampling than it was in the period preceding the initial (1977–79) sampling, and this may have contributed to change in mammal abundance.

Emerging opportunities for developing a diversified land sector economy in Australia’s northern savannas

We explore sustainable land sector opportunities for Australia’s 1.2 million km2 northern savanna rangelands where extensive beef cattle pastoralism is the predominant contemporary land use. Our focal region is characterised by mean annual rainfall exceeding 600 mm, ecologically bountiful wet season water availability followed by 6–8 months of surface water deficit, mostly nutrient-poor soils, internationally significant biodiversity and carbon stock values, very extensive dry season fires in pastorally unproductive settings, a sparse rural population (0.14 persons km–2) comprising a high proportion of Indigenous people, and associated limited infrastructure. Despite relatively high beef cattle prices in recent seasons and property values escalating at a spectacular ~6% p.a. over the past two decades, long-term economics data show that, for most northern regions, typical pastoral enterprises are unprofitable and carry significant debt. Pastoral activities can also incur very significant environmental impacts on soil and scarce dry season water resources, and greenhouse gas emissions, which currently are not accounted for in economic sustainability assessments. Over the same period, the conservation sector (including National Parks, Indigenous Protected Areas) has been expanding rapidly and now occupies 25% of the region. Since 2012, market-based savanna burning projects aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions occur over a further 25%. Returns from nature-based tourism focussed particularly on maintaining intact freshwater systems and associated recreational fishing opportunities dwarf returns from pastoralism. The growth of these latter industries illustrates the potential for further development of profitable ‘ecosystem services’ markets as part of a more environmentally and socially sustainable diversified regional land sector economy. We outline some of the imminent challenges involved with, and opportunities for developing, this new industry sector.

Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation

Tropical grassy biomes (TGBs) are changing rapidly the world over through a coalescence of high rates of land-use change, global change and altered disturbance regimes that maintain the ecosystem structure and function of these biomes. Our theme issue brings together the latest research examining the characterization, complex ecology, drivers of change, and human use and ecosystem services of TGBs. Recent advances in ecology and evolution have facilitated a new perspective on these biomes. However, there continues to be controversies over their classification and state dynamics that demonstrate critical data and knowledge gaps in our quantitative understanding of these geographically dispersed regions. We highlight an urgent need to improve ecological understanding in order to effectively predict the sensitivity and resilience of TGBs under future scenarios of global change. With human reliance on TGBs increasing and their propensity for change, ecological and evolutionary understanding of these biomes is central to the dual goals of sustaining their ecological integrity and the diverse services these landscapes provide to millions of people.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'.

Habitat as a mediator of mesopredator-driven mammal extinction

A prevailing view in dryland systems is that mammals are constrained by the scarcity of fertile soils and primary productivity. An alternative view is that predation is a primary driver of mammal assemblages, especially in Australia, where 2 introduced mesopredators-feral cat (Felis catus) and red fox (Vulpes vulpes)-are responsible for severe declines of dryland mammals. We evaluated productivity and predation as drivers of native mammal assemblage structure in dryland Australia. We used new data from 90 sites to examine the divers of extant mammal species richness and reconstructed historic mammal assemblages to determine proportional loss of mammal species across broad habitat types (landform and vegetation communities). Predation was supported as a major driver of extant mammal richness, but its effect was strongly mediated by habitat. Areas that were rugged or had dense grass cover supported more mammal species than the more productive and topographically simple areas. Twelve species in the critical weight range (CWR) (35-5500 g) that is most vulnerable to mesopredator predation were extirpated from the continent's central region, and the severity of loss of species correlated negatively with ruggedness and positively with productivity. Based on previous studies, we expect that habitat mediates predation from red foxes and feral cats because it affects these species' densities and foraging efficiency. Large areas of rugged terrain provided vital refuge for Australian dryland mammals, and we predict such areas will support the persistence of CWR species in the face of ongoing mammal declines elsewhere in Australia.

Minimizing species extinctions through strategic planning for conservation fencing

Conservation fences are an increasingly common management action, particularly for species threatened by invasive predators. However, unlike many conservation actions, fence networks are expanding in an unsystematic manner, generally as a reaction to local funding opportunities or threats. We conducted a gap analysis of Australia's large predator-exclusion fence network by examining translocation of Australian mammals relative to their extinction risk. To address gaps identified in species representation, we devised a systematic prioritization method for expanding the conservation fence network that explicitly incorporated population viability analysis and minimized expected species' extinctions. The approach was applied to New South Wales, Australia, where the state government intends to expand the existing conservation fence network. Existing protection of species in fenced areas was highly uneven; 67% of predator-sensitive species were unrepresented in the fence network. Our systematic prioritization yielded substantial efficiencies in that it reduced expected number of species extinctions up to 17 times more effectively than ad hoc approaches. The outcome illustrates the importance of governance in coordinating management action when multiple projects have similar objectives and rely on systematic methods rather than expanding networks opportunistically.

Potential future scenarios for Australia's native biodiversity given on-going increases in human population

Most natural assets, including native biodiversity (our focus), are under increasing threat from direct (loss of habitat, hunting) and indirect (climate change) human actions. Most human impacts arise from increasing human populations coupled with rises in per capita resource use. The rates of change of human actions generally outpace those to which the biota can respond or adapt. If we are to maintain native biodiversity, then we must develop ways to envisage how the biota may be affected over the next several decades to guide management and policy responses. We consider the future for Australia's native biodiversity in the context of two assumptions. First, the human population in Australia will be 40million by 2050, which has been mooted by federal government agencies. Second, greenhouse gas emissions will track the highest rates considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The scenarios are based on major drivers of change, which were constructed from seven key drivers of change pertinent to native biodiversity. Five scenarios deal with differing distributions of the human population driven by uncertainties in climate change and in the human responses to climate change. Other scenarios are governed largely by global change and explore different rates of resource use, unprecedented rates of technological change, capabilities and societal values. A narrative for each scenario is provided. The set of scenarios spans a wide range of possible future paths for Australia, with different implications for the future of native biodiversity.

The occurrence and relative abundance of small terrestrial mammals on Theda Station in the Northern Kimberley, Western Australia

Significant gaps in knowledge currently exist regarding the small mammal fauna of the Northern Kimberley (NOK) bioregion. Theda Station is a previously unsurveyed pastoral lease in the NOK. The aim of the current study was to determine the presence of small mammals (non-volant, <2 kg) on Theda Station and to compare these findings with those recently obtained on the adjacent Doongan Station. Between 2006 and 2014, 226 site surveys were conducted across 69 sites, with over 26 000 trap-nights encompassing a range of habitats. Thirteen of the 27 small mammal species known to occur in the NOK were detected. Four species (Pseudomys nanus, Rattus tunneyi, Zyzomys argurus and Sminthopsis virginiae) were common, five (Pseudomys delicatulus, Pseudantechinus ningbing, Dasyurus hallucatus, Isoodon macrourus and Petropseudes dahli) were detected less frequently, and four (Leggadina lakedownensis, Hydromys chrysogaster, Planigale maculata and Petaurus breviceps) were occasionally recorded. Our study provides important baseline data for small mammals in this region. It highlights the lack of detailed knowledge of both the presence of, and temporal fluctuations in, the region’s small mammal fauna. This study supports a non-uniform distribution of the small mammal fauna across the NOK, with Theda Station lying within a transition zone between the high rainfall rugged coastal and near-coastal areas and the lower rainfall areas of the east.

Assisted colonisation trial of the eastern barred bandicoot (Perameles gunnii) to a fox-free island

Context Assisted colonisation has the potential to protect species from intractable threats within their historical ranges. The Australian mainland subspecies of the eastern barred bandicoot (Perameles gunnii) is extinct in the wild, with surviving populations restricted to small sites protected by predator–barrier fences. PVA modelling shows that a self-sustaining bandicoot population would require an area free of the introduced red fox (Vulpes vulpes) of at least 2500ha. French Island is outside the historic range of the species, but is fox-free and contains around 9000ha of potentially suitable habitat. Aims This study will assess the suitability of French Island as a potential site for a self-sustaining eastern barred bandicoot population by conducting a 1-year assisted colonisation trial to assess habitat use, body condition and survival. Methods Between July and September 2012, 18 adult bandicoots were released. We radio-tracked bandicoots using intraperitoneal radio-transmitters for up to 122 days and trapped fortnightly. Key results The release group met the three measures of success: (1) appropriate habitat use; (2) recovery of post-release bodyweight; and (3) founder survival exceeding 100 days. Habitat use and body condition throughout the trial reflected that of mainland populations, and seven bandicoots survived longer than 100 days. Mortality was greatest in the first month, with veterinary investigations confirming two deaths due to cat predation, two deaths from toxoplasmosis and one unknown cause of death. Bandicoots that survived longer than 100 days occupied higher, drier ground than those that did not. Toxoplasmosis cases were associated with lower topographic position on the site. Conclusions Our results suggest that French Island provides suitable habitat for the establishment of a population of eastern barred bandicoots. On French Island, toxoplasmosis was identified as an important source of mortality in addition to cat predation, and warrants further investigation. Implications Given the costs and challenges of predator control and the maintenance of predator exclusion fences, assisted colonisation to one or more fox-free islands remains the most viable option to establish self-sustaining bandicoot populations. Our results highlight the value in conducting trial releases ahead of major translocations.

Dispersal responses override density effects on genetic diversity during post-disturbance succession

Dispersal fundamentally influences spatial population dynamics but little is known about dispersal variation in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is generated predominantly by disturbance and succession. We tested the hypothesis that habitat succession following fire inhibits dispersal, leading to declines over time in genetic diversity in the early successional gecko Nephrurus stellatus We combined a landscape genetics field study with a spatially explicit simulation experiment to determine whether successional patterns in genetic diversity were driven by habitat-mediated dispersal or demographic effects (declines in population density leading to genetic drift). Initial increases in genetic structure following fire were likely driven by direct mortality and rapid population expansion. Subsequent habitat succession increased resistance to gene flow and decreased dispersal and genetic diversity inN. stellatus Simulated changes in population density alone did not reproduce these results. Habitat-mediated reductions in dispersal, combined with changes in population density, were essential to drive the field-observed patterns. Our study provides a framework for combining demographic, movement and genetic data with simulations to discover the relative influence of demography and dispersal on patterns of landscape genetic structure. Our results suggest that succession can inhibit connectivity among individuals, opening new avenues for understanding how disturbance regimes influence spatial population dynamics.

Making parks make a difference: poor alignment of policy, planning and management with protected-area impact, and ways forward

Policy and practice around protected areas are poorly aligned with the basic purpose of protection, which is to make a difference. The difference made by protected areas is their impact, defined in program evaluation as the outcomes arising from protection relative to the counterfactual of no protection or a different form of protection. Although impact evaluation of programs is well established in fields such as medicine, education and development aid, it is rare in nature conservation. We show that the present weak alignment with impact of policy targets and operational objectives for protected areas involves a great risk: targets and objectives can be achieved while making little difference to the conservation of biodiversity. We also review potential ways of increasing the difference made by protected areas, finding a poor evidence base for the use of planning and management ‘levers’ to better achieve impact. We propose a dual strategy for making protected areas more effective in their basic role of saving nature, outlining ways of developing targets and objectives focused on impact while also improving the evidence for effective planning and management.

Extraterritorial hunting expeditions to intense fire scars by feral cats

Feral cats are normally territorial in Australia’s tropical savannahs, and hunt intensively with home-ranges only two to three kilometres across. Here we report that they also undertake expeditions of up to 12.5 km from their home ranges to hunt for short periods over recently burned areas. Cats are especially likely to travel to areas burned at high intensity, probably in response to vulnerability of prey soon after such fires. The movements of journeying cats are highly directed to specific destinations. We argue that the effect of this behaviour is to increase the aggregate impact of cats on vulnerable prey. This has profound implications for conservation, considering the ubiquity of feral cats and global trends of intensified fire regimes.