Proposal of a new prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma: an analysis of 403 patients

Biology and significance of alpha-fetoprotein in hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common causes of cancer-related deaths globally due, in part, to the majority of patients being diagnosed with intermediate or advanced stage disease. Our increased understanding of the heterogeneous molecular pathogenesis of HCC has led to significant developments in novel targeted therapies. Despite these advances, there remains a high unmet need for new treatment options. HCC is a complex disease with multiple pathogenic mechanisms caused by a variety of risk factors, making it difficult to characterize with a single biomarker. In fact, numerous biomarkers have been studied in HCC, but alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) remains the most widely used and accepted serum marker since its discovery over 60 years ago. This review summarizes the most relevant studies associated with the regulation of AFP at the gene and protein levels; the pathophysiology of AFP as a pro-proliferative protein; and the correlation of AFP with molecular HCC subclasses, the vascular endothelial growth factor pathway and angiogenesis. Also described are the historical and current uses of AFP for screening and surveillance, diagnosis, its utility as a prognostic and predictive biomarker and its role as a tumour antigen in HCC. Taken together, these data demonstrate the relevance of AFP for patients with HCC and identify several remaining questions that will benefit from future research.

Newly Proposed ALBI Grade and ALBI-T Score as Tools for Assessment of Hepatic Function and Prognosis in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

BACKGROUND

Because of the rapid progression of antiviral treatment options and the increasing frequency of nonviral-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) due to the aging of society, the number of HCC patients with good hepatic function has been increasing and a more detailed method of assessment of hepatic function is needed. The Child-Pugh classification (CP) is used worldwide as an assessment tool for hepatic reserve function, even though it has some weaknesses. Recently, the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, calculated based on only albumin and total bilirubin, was proposed, and recent investigations have suggested that ALBI grade instead of CP can be used as an assessment tool for hepatic function as part of therapeutic strategies such as Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging and a practical guideline presented by the Japan Society of Hepatology as well for total staging scoring systems. There has been an increasing number of reports showing that it has better capability than CP for HCC patients who undergo not only curative but also palliative treatments. Transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a major palliative treatment used for unresectable HCC, and the idea of TACE-refractory status has been proposed to indicate the possibility of switching to a tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI). However, TKI administration requires a maintained hepatic reserve function, thus the importance of assessment of hepatic function in patients undergoing TACE treatments has increased. We consider that ALBI grade might also play a significant role as part of a detailed assessment of relative changes in hepatic function during treatment. In this review, we evaluate the practical usefulness of ALBI grade for assessing hepatic function and HCC prognosis.

KEY MESSAGE

A detailed assessment of hepatic function is required for recent HCC therapeutic strategies. ALBI grade may be a powerful tool to improve treatment options for affected patients.

New scoring system for resectable hepatocellular carcinoma with a maximum tumor size of ≤5 cm based on preoperative tumor factors

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to establish a new scoring system for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) that can be used to predict the postoperative prognosis of HCC patients.

METHODS

A total of 359 HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy were included in this study. All eligible patients were randomly allocated to derivation cohort or validation cohort samples. We assigned one point each for preoperative factors identified in the derivation cohort, and the sum of the scores was used to classify the patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. The scoring system established using the derivation cohort was fitted to the validation cohort.

RESULTS

The prognosis of the high-risk group was significantly poorer than that of the low-risk group in both the derivation and validation samples (p = 0.04, p < 0.01, respectively). In the high-risk group, major hepatectomy resulted in a significantly better prognosis than minor hepatectomy in both samples (p = 0.04, p = 0.03, respectively). On the other hand, the extent of hepatectomy did not influence the prognosis of the low-risk group in either sample (p = 0.14, p = 0.34, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Our new scoring system can predict the treatment outcome of patients undergoing curative hepatectomy for HCC and could help determine the optimal extent of resection.

Clinical and morpho-molecular classifiers for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma prognosis and recurrence after surgical resection

BACKGROUND

Approximately 50% hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients die within 5 year after surgical resection. The present staging systems do not fully allow to accurately predict the HCC prognosis and recurrence. This study aimed to identify clinicopathological characteristics and molecular markers to establish classifiers to predict the 5-year overall survival (OS) and the 3-year recurrence in HCC patients post-operatively.

METHODS

We enrolled 647 HCC patients from two institutions, underwent surgical resection and divided the patients into one training and two validation cohorts. Clinicopathologic characteristics and tumor protein expression of 29 biomarkers by immunohistochemical (IHC) analysis were used to develop and validate a prognostic and a recurrent classifier, using the maximum relevance minimum redundancy algorithm jointly with the multivariable regression method.

RESULTS

The prognostic classifier distinguished HCC patients into high- and low-probability survival groups with significant differences in 5-year OS rate in all three cohorts (training cohort: 57.36% vs. 22.97%; p < 0.0001; internal validation cohort: 61.90% vs. 28.85%; p < 0.0001; independent validation cohort: 64.28% vs. 22.45%; p < 0.0001). The recurrent classifier also demonstrated good discrimination in all three cohorts.

CONCLUSION

This study presented a prognostic classifier and a recurrent classifier using clinicopathologic and IHC characteristics. The developed classifiers stratified HCC patients into high- and low-probability survival or recurrent groups, which can help clinicians judge whether adjuvant therapy is beneficial post-operatively.

Utility of scoring systems combining the product of tumor number and size with liver function for predicting the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

Our previous study reported the effectiveness of the product of tumor number and size (NxS factor) as a predictor of the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following hepatectomy. The aim of the present study was to validate the prognostic value of scoring systems based on the NxS factor for HCC. The records of 940 patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC at Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine and Osaka International Cancer Institute were analyzed. The discriminatory abilities of the mathematical integrated model for tumor staging (MITS) score, which combines the NxS factor with liver function, and known prognostic systems, including the Japan Integrated Staging system, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program and the Tokyo system, were compared. Firstly, the present study demonstrated that a higher NxS factor was associated with decreased disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with HCC (P<0.05). Subsequently, univariate analysis of DFS and OS curves revealed significant differences among all NxS factor and liver damage combinations (MITS-LD score; score 0 vs. score 1; score 1 vs. score 2; score 2 vs. score 3; all P<0.05) and all NxS factor and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score combinations (MITS-ALBI score; score 0 vs. score 1; score 1 vs. score 2; score 2 vs. score 3; all P<0.05). Furthermore, multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis demonstrated that there were significant differences in DFS [Hazard Ratio (HR); score 0 vs. score 1 (1.48); score 1 vs. score 2 (1.27); score 2 vs. score 3 (1.64); all P<0.05] and OS [HR; score 0 vs. score 1 (1.34); score 1 vs. score 2 (1.29); score 2 vs. score 3 (1.64); all P<0.05] among patients with different MITS-LD scores, and there were significant differences in DFS [HR; score 0 vs. score 1 (1.38); score 1 vs. score 2 (1.43); score 2 vs. score 3 (1.60); all P<0.05] among patients with different MITS-ALBI scores. The NxS factor may be a comprehensive measure of tumor burden for predicting the prognosis of patients with HCC following liver resection, and MITS scores could be an improved scoring system for predicting the prognosis of patients with HCC after hepatectomy.

Preoperative lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio is useful for stratifying the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients with a low Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score undergoing curative resection

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Although the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score is useful for prognostication of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a previous study has reported that the CLIP score was unable to stratify the postoperative outcomes of HCC patients in whom the score was low (0-1). Recent studies have reported that the preoperative lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) is useful for prognostication of patients with various cancer.

METHODS

We reviewed 329 HCC patients with a low CLIP score (0-1) undergoing curative resection. This study had the approval of the Institutional Review Board (28068). Multivariate analyses were carried out to detect clinical factors correlating with overall survival (OS). Kaplan-Meier analysis and the log-rank test were used for comparison of OS.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis showed that LMR (<4.35/≥4.35) was significantly associated with OS (hazard ratio [HR], 2.022; 95% CI, 1.141-3.583; P = 0.016) as well as portal vein invasion (HR, 2.410; 95%CI, 1.258-4.618; P = 0.008). Kaplan-Meier analysis and the log-rank test showed a significant difference in OS and relapse-free survival between patients with high LMR and those with low LMR.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative LMR is useful for stratifying the prognosis of HCC patients with a low CLIP score (0-1) undergoing curative resection.

Development of a prognostic score for recommended TACE candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicentre observational study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Previous prognostic scores for transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) were mainly derived from real-world settings, which are beyond guideline recommendations. A robust model for outcome prediction and risk stratification of recommended TACE candidates is lacking. We aimed to develop an easy-to-use tool specifically for these patients.

METHODS

Between January 2010 and May 2016, 1,604 treatment-naïve patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), Child-Pugh A5-B7 and performance status 0 undergoing TACE were included from 24 tertiary centres. Patients were randomly divided into training (n = 807) and validation (n = 797) cohorts. A prognostic model was developed and subsequently validated. Predictive performance and discrimination were further evaluated and compared with other prognostic models.

RESULTS

The final presentation of the model was "linear predictor = largest tumour diameter (cm) + tumour number", which consistently outperformed other currently available models in both training and validation datasets as well as in different subgroups. The thirtieth percentile and the third quartile of the linear predictor, namely 6 and 12, were further selected as cut-off values, leading to the "six-and-twelve" score which could divide patients into 3 strata with the sum of tumour size and number ≤6, >6 but ≤12, and >12 presenting significantly different median survival of 49.1 (95% CI 43.7-59.4) months, 32.0 (95% CI 29.9-37.5) months, and 15.8 (95% CI 14.1-17.7) months, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The six-and-twelve score may prove an easy-to-use tool to stratify recommended TACE candidates (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage-A/B) and predict individual survival with favourable performance and discrimination. Moreover, the score could stratify these patients in clinical practice as well as help design clinical trials with comparable criteria involving these patients. Further external validation of the score is required.

LAY SUMMARY

There is currently no prognostic model specifically developed for recommended or ideal transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma, despite these patients being frequently identified as the best target population in pivotal randomized controlled trials. The six-and-twelve score provides patient survival prediction, especially in ideal candidates of TACE, outperforming other currently available models in both training and validation sets, as well as different subgroups. With cut-off values of 6 and 12, the score can stratify ideal TACE candidates into 3 strata with significantly different outcomes and may shed light on risk stratification of these patients in clinical practice as well as in clinical trials.

Prognostic Implications of Arginase and Cytokeratin 19 Expression in Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Curative Hepatectomy: Correlation With Recurrence-Free Survival

BACKGROUND

The prognostic value of arginase expression in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been evaluated previously. However, no clear distinction exists yet on the role of arginase-1 as a predictor of recurrence in HCC. Cytokeratin 19 (CK19), a cholangiocytic marker, is occasionally expressed in HCC, but the combination of arginase-1 and CK19 expression has never been evaluated. The aim of the study was to investigate the usefulness of arginase-1 and CK19 expression alone and in combination for prognosticating HCC tumor recurrence after surgical resection.

METHODS

Tissue sections from 112 HCCs were immunostained using an automated method and the mouse monoclonal arginase-1 and mouse monoclonal CK19 antibodies. The clinicopathologic variables, including alpha-fetoprotein levels, viral hepatitis, cirrhosis, tumor size, grade and number, vascular invasion, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, and tumor recurrence and survival, were obtained from each patient's medical records. The variables were assessed for correlation with the immunochemical results. Comparisons of recurrence-free and overall survival were performed using univariate and multivariate regression analyses. A P-value of ≤ 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

High arginase-1 expression was detected in the HCCs of 93 patients (83%), whereas CK19 was positive in the HCCs of only 19 patients (17%). In the univariate analyses, CK19 positivity in HCC was associated with decreased recurrence-free survival compared with CK19-negative HCC (P = 0.0002). Arginase-1 expression was associated with decreased recurrence-free survival when patients were stratified over advanced TNM stage and presence of vascular invasion. The combination of arginase-1 and CK19 expression was a better predictor of decreased recurrence-free survival (P = 0.00008). Arginase-1/CK19 expressions when combined with multiple tumors, TNM stage and vascular invasion were also associated with decreased recurrence-free survival. In the multivariate analysis, tumor grade, CK19 and arginase-1/CK19 expressions were identified as independent prognostic indicators for decreased recurrence-free survival.

CONCLUSION

Arginase-1 and CK19 combination immunoreactivity is a potential biomarker of adverse prognosis in HCC, correlating with the presence of multiple tumors, vascular invasion and advanced stage.

Utility of FIB4-T as a Prognostic Factor for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background: Most integrated scores for predicting the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) comprise tumor progression factors and liver function variables. The FIB4 index is an indicator of hepatic fibrosis calculated on the basis of age, aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels, and platelet count, but it does not include variables directly related to liver function. We propose a new staging system, referred to as “FIB4-T,” comprising the FIB4 index as well as tumor progression factors, and examine its usefulness. Method: Subjects included 3800 cases of HCC registered in multiple research centers. We defined grades 1, 2, and 3 as a Fibrosis-4 (FIB4) index of <3.25, 3.26–6.70, and >6.70 as FIB4, respectively, and calculated the FIB4-T in the same manner in which the JIS (Japan Integrated Staging Score) scores and albumin-bilirubin tumor node metastasis (ALBI-T) were calculated. We compared the prognostic prediction ability of FIB4-T with that of the JIS score and ALBI-T. Results: Mean observation period was 37 months. The 5-year survival rates (%) of JIS score (0/1/2/3/4/5), ALBI-T (0/1/2/3/4/5) and FIB4-T (0/1/2/3/4/5) were 74/60/36/16/0, 82/66/45/22/5/0 and 88/75/65/58/32/10, respectively. Comparisons of the Akaike information criteria among JIS scores, ALBI-T, and FIB4-T indicated that stratification using the FIB4-T system was comparable to those using ALBI-T and JIS score. The risk of mortality significantly increased (1.3–2.8 times/step) with an increase in FIB4-T, and clear stratification was possible regardless of the treatment. Conclusions: FIB4-T is useful in predicting the prognosis of patients with HCC from a new perspective.

Systematic review of the outcomes of surgical resection for intermediate and advanced Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage hepatocellular carcinoma: A critical appraisal of the evidence

AIM

To perform a systematic review to determine the survival outcomes after curative resection of intermediate and advanced hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC).

METHODS

A systematic review of the published literature was performed using the PubMed database from 1^st January 1999 to 31^st Dec 2014 to identify studies that reported outcomes of liver resection as the primary curative treatment for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B or C HCC. The primary end point was to determine the overall survival (OS) and disease free survival (DFS) of liver resection of HCC in BCLC stage B or C in patients with adequate liver reserve (i.e., Child’s A or B status). The secondary end points were to assess the morbidity and mortality of liver resection in large HCC (defined as lesions larger than 10 cm in diameter) and to compare the OS and DFS after surgical resection of solitary vs multifocal HCC.

RESULTS

We identified 74 articles which met the inclusion criteria and were analyzed in this systematic review. Analysis of the resection outcomes of the included studies were grouped according to (1) BCLC stage B or C HCC, (2) Size of HCC and (3) multifocal tumors. The median 5-year OS of BCLC stage B was 38.7% (range 10.0-57.0); while the median 5-year OS of BCLC stage C was 20.0% (range 0.0-42.0). The collective median 5-year OS of both stages was 27.9% (0.0-57.0). In examining the morbidity and mortality following liver resection in large HCC, the pooled RR for morbidity [RR (95%CI) = 1.00 (0.76-1.31)] and mortality [RR (95%CI) = 1.15 (0.73-1.80)] were not significant. Within the spectrum of BCLC B and C lesions, tumors greater than 10 cm were reported to have median 5-year OS of 33.0% and multifocal lesions 54.0%.

CONCLUSION

Indication for surgical resection should be extended to BCLC stage B lesions in selected patients. Further studies are needed to stratify stage C lesions for resection.

Genetic correction of serum AFP level improves risk prediction of primary hepatocellular carcinoma in the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort study

Serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is the most commonly used tumor biomarker for screening and diagnosis of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the predictive effect for HCC risk is still unsatisfactory. The aim of this prospective study was to estimate whether the individual genetic correction could improve the prediction efficiency of AFP for HCC risk. A prospective analysis with 9819 baseline HCC-free individuals based on a large population-based Chinese cohort study was performed. Two single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with serum AFP level were used to calculate the genetic corrected AFP level (rs12506899 and rs2251844). Statistical analysis including logistic regression analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to assess the discriminative ability of the original and genetic corrected AFP level for HCC risk. The odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were presented. Fifty-seven participants were diagnosed with HCC for the first time. After adjusting AFP level with genetic effects, the participants for HCC risk increased compared to those with AFP level alone (OR = 5.34, 95% CI = 2.57-11.13; P < 0.001 vs. OR = 5.04, 95% CI = 2.46-10.30; P < 0.001). In addition, the area under the curve (AUC) for the discrimination of HCC elevated from 0.611 to 0.726. The efficiency in HCC prediction using serum AFP level can be improved by adjusting AFP level based on genetic effects. The genetic correction effect on serum AFP should be considered in the clinic application of such tumor biomarkers.

Risk stratification using a novel liver functional reserve score of combination prothrombin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio and albumin in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Liver function in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma is generally graded according to the Child-Pugh system; however, some variables in the Child-Pugh grade are subjective. We developed a novel, objective score called the prothrombin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of this new score in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatic resection.

METHODS

The study comprised 199 patients who underwent elective hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma between January 2003 and December 2014. We investigated retrospectively the relation between prothrombin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio, disease-free survival, and overall survival and compared the value of liver functional reserve between prothrombin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio and Child-Pugh grade.

RESULTS

The optimal cut-off level of the prothrombin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio was 0.288. In multivariate analysis, the independent and significant predictors of cancer recurrence consisted of hepatitis C virus infection (P = .043), preoperative retention rate of indocyanine green at 15 minutes ≥15% (P = .039), the presence of multiple tumors (P = .001) or microvascular invasion (P < .001), and prothrombin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio ≥0.288 (P = .022). The independent predictors of poor overall survival were microvascular invasion (P = .001) and prothrombin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio ≥0.288 (P = .001). In patients with a high prothrombin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio, pathologic liver cirrhosis (P < .001), postoperative ascites (P = .039), and postoperative liver failure (P = .040) were greater than for their counterparts.

CONCLUSION

The prothrombin time-international normalized ratio to albumin ratio may reflect liver function and may be a novel indicator of poor long-term outcome in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatic resection.

Adherence to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer therapeutic algorithm for hepatocellular carcinoma in the daily practice: a multicenter cohort study from Argentina

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Adherence to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging algorithm for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma is challenging in the daily practice. We aimed to analyze adherence to BCLC along with its effect on patient survival.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A cohort study was conducted in 14 hospitals from Argentina including patients with newly diagnosed hepatocellular carcinoma (2009-2016). Adherence was considered when the first treatment was the one recommended by the BCLC.

RESULTS

Overall, 708 patients were included. At diagnosis, BCLC stages were as follows: stage 0 4%, A 43%, B 22%, C 9% and D 22%. Overall, 53% of the patients were treated according to BCLC, 24% were undertreated, and 23% overtreated. Adherence to BCLC increased to 63% in subsequent treatments. Independent factors associated with adherence to BCLC were the presence of portal hypertension [odds ratio: 1.63; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-2.39] and BCLC stage C (odds ratio: 0.32; 95% CI: 0.12-0.72). In a multivariable model adjusting for portal hypertension and BCLC stages, adherence to BCLC showed improved survival (hazard ratio: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.52-0.87).

CONCLUSION

Adherence to BCLC represents a challenge in the daily practice, with almost half of the patients being treated accordingly, showing that the decision-making process should be tailored to each individual patient.

A new prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after curative hepatectomy

We previously reported the effectiveness of the product of tumor number and size (NxS factor) for the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients following hepatectomy. The present study aimed to propose a new score based on the NxS factor to predict HCC recurrence following hepatectomy. A total of 406 patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC at Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine were retrospectively analyzed to develop the new score. Among clinicopathological factors, including the NxS factor, the marker subset that achieved the best performance for prediction of early recurrence was assessed, and a prognostic model for HCC recurrence after curative hepatectomy (REACH) was developed. As the validation set, 425 patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC at Yamaguchi University Graduate School of Medicine and Shimonoseki Medical Center were analyzed, and the prognostic ability of the REACH score was compared with that of well-known staging systems. Following analysis, the REACH score was constructed using six covariates (NxS factor, microscopic hepatic vein invasion, differentiation, serum albumin, platelet count and indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min). In the validation set, the REACH score predicted early recurrence in 73 of 81 samples, with a sensitivity of 89% and a specificity of 58%. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve of the REACH score was 0.78 and 0.74, respectively, for 1- and 2-year recurrence after hepatectomy; each AUC was higher than that of any of the other staging systems. Survival analysis indicated the REACH score had the best predictive value in disease-free and overall survival. The present findings demonstrated that the REACH score may be used to classify patients with HCC into high- and low-risk of recurrence, and to predict subsequent survival following hepatic resection.

Proposal of Prognostic Survival Models before and after Liver Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Potentially Transplantable Patients

BACKGROUND

Transplantable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a highly debated issue due to the overlap between indications for liver resection (LR) and transplantation (LT) in patients suitable for both.

STUDY DESIGN

Between January 2000 and December 2012, five hundred and twenty-four transplantable patients affected by HCC were identified among resected patients. Two regression models were constructed to classify patients into 2 groups pre-low and pre-high risk based on preoperative variables and then to reclassify pre-low-risk patients according to postoperative variables into either post-low or post-high-risk. Additionally, a cohort of patients with comparable baseline characteristics who underwent LT were similarly classified into pre-low and pre-high-risk groups and compared with the resected patients in terms of survival.

RESULTS

Cirrhosis, aspartate transaminase, α-fetoprotein, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, number of nodules, and diameter of the largest nodule were preoperatively found to be significantly related to overall survival post-LR. Microvascular invasion and satellites were selected to reclassify prognosis in the resulting preoperative low-risk group into post-high risk. The converted group (post-high) demonstrated the same 5-year survival as the pre-high group. Patients undergoing LT had better survival overall than those undergoing LR, with the exception of pre-low LT and post-low LR (confirmed low-risk LR) who had similar outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The new models were strongly predictive of patients' likelihood of survival after LR for HCC on liver cirrhosis. Liver transplantation offers a survival advantage over LR, except in low-risk groups where both modalities might be comparable.

Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization With or Without Radiofrequency Ablation: Outcomes in Patients With Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stage B Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

The objective of our study was to clarify the indications for transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) of the hepatic artery combined with radiofrequency ablation (RFA), which we refer to as "TACE-RFA," for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Milan criteria. This study assessed the prognoses of patients with intermediate-stage HCC, which we defined as Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B (hereafter referred to as BCLC-B), according to the BCLC-B substages through treatment in a multicenter study.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Two-hundred thirty patients with intermediate-stage HCC who were treated from January 2000 to December 2015 were enrolled. These patients were divided into four classes (B1-B4) according to the Bolondi classification. Between these substages, the prognosis of patients who underwent TACE-RFA was compared with that of patients who underwent TACE, the latter of which is the suggested standard therapy for patients with BCLC-B HCC.

RESULTS

TACE-RFA and hepatic resection survival curves were better than those of TACE (p < 0.001 for TACE-RFA vs TACE). In particular, for substages B1 and B2, the overall survival rates of patients who underwent TACE-RFA were significantly higher than those who underwent TACE (B1, p < 0.001 for TACE-RFA vs TACE; B2, p = 0.015 for TACE-RFA vs TACE).

CONCLUSION

The indications for TACE-RFA may be expanding to BCLC-B HCC. For patients with disease classified as substages B1 and B2, TACE-RFA may be a better treatment modality than TACE alone.

Surgical resection versus transarterial chemoembolization for BCLC intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is recommended as the first-line therapy for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) algorithm. However, in clinical practice, many such patients undergo surgical resection. A meta-analysis with a systematic search of the medical literature was conducted to compare these two procedures for BCLC intermediate stage HCC.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Medline and Cochrane library were searched for studies comparing surgical resection with TACE for BCLC intermediate stage HCC that were published before December 2016. The primary outcome was overall survival, and the secondary outcomes were postoperative complications and 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

This meta-analysis included 9 studies with 2619 patients (surgical resection, n = 1204 (46%) and TACE, n = 1415 (54%)). When compared with the TACE group, the pooled hazard ratio (HR) for the 1, 3 and 5-year OS rates in patients who underwent surgical resection were 0.62 (95% CI 0.51-0.75, P = 0.39; I2 = 6%, P < 0.001), 0.58 (95% CI 0.51-0.67, P = 0.25; I2 = 22%, P < 0.001) and 0.59 (95% CI 0.54-0.64, P = 0.18; I2 = 20%, P < 0.001). No significant differences in the pooled odds ratios (OR) were found between surgical resection and TACE in postoperative complications and 30-day mortality [OR 1.23 (95% CI 0.87 to 1.74, P = 0.390; I2 = 0%, P = 0.240) and OR 1.11 (95% CI 0.60 to 2.04, P = 0.89; I2 = 0%, P = 0.740), respectively].

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis on studies on Asian HCC patients demonstrated surgical resection had better overall survival than TACE for patients with intermediate stage HCC, without any significant increase in postoperative complication or 30-day mortality rates. Further studies are needed to validate these results on Western patients, moreover, a reappraisal of the recommended treatments for BCLC intermediate stage HCC should be considered.

A novel scoring system predicts adjuvant chemolipiodolization benefit for hepatocellular carcinoma patients after hepatectomy

Our aim in this study was to develop a prognostic scoring system with which to identify patients most likely to benefit from adjuvant chemolipiodolization (ACL) after liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Data from 1150 HCC patients who underwent liver resection between 2002 and 2008 at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital were used to develop the scoring system. Patients were stratified into prognostic subgroups using the new scoring system, and the outcomes of patients who received ACL and those who did not were compared in each subgroup. Using data from 379 patients operated on between 2008 and 2010 for validation, the scoring system had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.75 for predicting post-resectional overall survival (OS). It optimally stratified patients into three prognostic subgroups with scores of 0–5, 6–9 and ≥ 10, having better, medium and worse survival outcomes, respectively. A difference in OS between ACL and non-ACL patients was only detected in the subgroup with scores ≥ 10 (1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates: 63.9%, 22.6%, and 9.0% vs. 33.8%, 5.6%, and 2.8%, p = 0.001). Our proposed scoring system provides an effective tool for selecting the patients most likely to benefit from ACL.

Genetic correction improves prediction efficiency of serum tumor biomarkers on digestive cancer risk in the elderly Chinese cohort study

Although serum tumor biomarkers alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) have been used in digestive cancer risk prediction, the prediction efficiency remains unsatisfactory. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether genetic correction could improve the efficiency of these biomarkers for prediction of digestive cancer risk. We conducted a prospective analysis in 9,808 healthy individuals based on a cohort study in the elderly Chinese population. The genotypes of reported single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with serum AFP, CA19-9 and CEA were used to estimate the genetic corrected levels of these markers. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the risk of digestive cancer. The Harrell's C-statistic was used to evaluate the discriminative ability of the raw levels and genetic corrected levels of biomarkers on digestive cancer risk. Up to October 2013, a total of 172 individuals were newly diagnosed with digestive cancer. With the genetic correction, higher odds ratios (ORs) for digestive cancer risk were found for the genetic corrected levels of tumor biomarkers compared with their raw serum levels (1.57 vs. 1.65 for AFP; 1.19 vs. 1.21 for CA19-9; 1.09 vs. 1.10 for CEA, respectively). The same results were observed in the Harrell's C-statistic analyses. Genetic correction improved the prediction efficiency of tumor biomarkers on the digestive cancer risk in an elderly Chinese population. Our findings provide evidence for further studies of genetic effects on tumor biomarker to improve the predictive efficiency on cancer risk.

Validation and Potential of Albumin-Bilirubin Grade and Prognostication in a Nationwide Survey of 46,681 Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients in Japan: The Need for a More Detailed Evaluation of Hepatic Function

BACKGROUND/AIM

Recently, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) scoring/grading, consisting of only albumin and total bilirubin, has been proposed. We examined the efficacy of this grading system for determining hepatic function in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS/MATERIALS

The prognoses of 46,681 HCC patients based on results obtained from a nationwide survey conducted in Japan from 2001 to 2007 were evaluated using (1) Japan Integrated Staging (JIS), consisting of Child-Pugh classification and TNM staging (TNM), (2) modified JIS (m-JIS), consisting of liver damage grading and TNM, and (3) ALBI-TNM (ALBI-T), consisting of ALBI grading and TNM, and the results were compared. A subanalysis was also performed to define a cutoff value for ALBI scores for a more detailed stratification of hepatic function.

RESULTS

ALBI-T, JIS, and m-JIS each showed good capacity for the stratification of prognoses. Although the Akaike information criterion for ALBI-T was nearly equal to that for JIS and m-JIS, the Kaplan-Meier curves and median survival times obtained with ALBI-T were always superior to the corresponding scores. When the indocyanine green retention test (<30%) was used as an additional cutoff value for ALBI score (-2.270, area under the curve 0.828) to divide ALBI grade into 4 levels (modified ALBI [mALBI] grade), mALBI grade was able to stratify the prognosis of patients at any TNM stage in order of grade. Modified ALBI-T (mALBI-T), using mALBI grading and TNM, produced a more detailed stratification for prognosis.

CONCLUSION

The predictive value for prognosis of ALBI-T was found to be equal to that of JIS and m-JIS. In addition, mALBI grading and mALBI-T, as proposed in the present study, might provide a more detailed assessment of the hepatic function and prognosis of HCC patients.

Management consensus guideline for hepatocellular carcinoma: 2016 updated by the Taiwan Liver Cancer Association and the Gastroenterological Society of Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer-related mortality in Taiwan. To help clinical physicians to manage patients with HCC, the Taiwan Liver Cancer Association and the Gastroenterological Society of Taiwan produced the management consensus guideline for HCC.

METHODS

The recommendations focus on nine important issues on management of HCC, including surveillance, diagnosis, staging, surgery, local ablation, transarterial chemoembolization/transarterial radioembolization/hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy, systemic therapy, radiotherapy, and prevention.

RESULTS

The consensus statements were discussed, debated and got consensus in each expert team. And then the statements were sent to all of the experts for further discussion and refinement. Finally, all of the experts were invited to vote for the statements, including the level of evidence and recommendation.

CONCLUSION

With the development of the management consensus guideline, HCC patients could benefit from the optimal therapeutic modality.

Validation of serological models for staging and prognostication of HCC in patients from a Japanese nationwide survey

BACKGROUND

Two serology-based scoring models for prognostication of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the BALAD and BALAD-2 models, were applied to a Japanese cohort of a nationwide follow-up survey of HCC. The ability of these models to predict the progression of HCC and the deterioration of liver function and to assess prognosis was evaluated.

METHODS

BALAD and BALAD-2 scores were calculated in 24,029 patients from a cohort of Japanese nationwide survey based on the serum levels of five markers (bilirubin, albumin, lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive alpha-fetoprotein, alpha-fetoprotein, and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin) measured at the time of HCC diagnosis. The associations of these scores with the progression of HCC and liver function and with survival rates were analyzed.

RESULTS

There were good correlations between BALAD and BALAD-2 scores and the progression of HCC and Child-Pugh class. Both scores accurately categorized patients into risk groups with different survival rates. BALAD-2 showed superior discrimination of patient survival compared with the original BALAD.

CONCLUSIONS

Serology-based scoring models for prognostication, especially the BALAD-2 model, were useful for staging and prognostication of survival in a cohort of Japanese patients with HCC from a nationwide survey.

A novel prognostic index-neutrophil times γ-glutamyl transpeptidase to lymphocyte ratio (NγLR) predicts outcome for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Clinical outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are highly variable. This study aims to identify and validate a simple, readily available, and objective prognostic index for the management of HCC. Data from 724 HCC patients undergoing curative resection were evaluated and randomly divided into two cohorts for building and validating the prognostic index. A best model, NγLR = (neutrophil count [10⁹/L] × γ-glutamyl transpeptidase [U/L]) /(lymphocyte count [10⁹/L] × U/L), was selected. An optimal cut-off value of 103.6 for NγLR stratified patients into high NγLR (>103.6) and low NγLR (≤103.6) groups. NγLR > 103.6 was closely associated with HCC malignant characteristics. Elevated NγLR predicted a worse overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) for HCC patients and remained an independent predictor for both types of survival. Moreover, early recurrence rates in patients with NγLR > 103.6 were higher than that in patients with NγLR ≤ 103.6 (P < 0.0001). NγLR was an important independent predictor of survival for HCC patients and might be a new promising method to identify patients at different risks of early recurrence and survival after curative resection.

Platelet Distribution Width and Serum Albumin Levels for Discrimination of Thyroid Cancer From Benign Thyroid Nodules

Thyroid cancer is the most rapidly increasing cancer type among women and the second among men. Early detection greatly improves the prognosis. For this purpose, the platelet distribution width (PDW), an early indicator of platelet activation, might be useful. The aim of this study was to investigate the ability of PDW and serum albumin levels individually or in combination to distinguish between thyroid cancer and benign thyroid nodules. A total of 265 patients with thyroid cancer and 243 with benign thyroid nodules were included in a development set. Then, two groups of 130 cases were enrolled in a validation set. Patient characteristics and hematologic test data at initial diagnosis were collected. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), area under the curve (AUC) values, sensitivity and specificity were estimated. Albumin levels are significantly lower and PDW significantly higher in patients with thyroid cancer compared to the benign cases. Moreover, PDW values prominently differed among three types of thyroid cancer. In addition, the combination of PDW and albumin exhibited a significantly larger AUC than either marker alone (p < 0.001). In conclusion, the combined use of PDW and albumin might be useful in distinguishing thyroid cancer from benign thyroid nodules. This promising approach could be helpful in early detection of thyroid cancer.

Prognostic nomogram for hepatocellular carcinoma in adolescent and young adult patients after hepatectomy

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was rarely discussed in adolescent and young adult (AYA) patients. This study aimed to discuss the character of AYA HCC patients and establish an effective prognostic nomogram for patients after hepatectomy.

Results

For all of the patients, the median OS was 57 months with 5-year OS rate 60.4%, and DFS was 48 months with 5-year DFS rate 51.4%. The tumor size, vascular invasion status and the pathological differentiation were the independent predictors for both OS and DFS. Except for that, gender, Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, HbeAg, and α-Fetoprotein were the predictors for OS. The c-index for OS prognostic nomogram was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.79), and c-index was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.66 to 0.74) for DFS prognostic nomogram, which was better than American Joint Commission on Cancer 2002 and 2010, Okuda staging system, the Japanese Integrated Staging system, and Tokyo staging system.

Materials And Methods

This study was based on 423 AYA HCC patients (younger than 40 years old) undergoing hepatectomy in West China Hospital between 2008 to 2014. Based on the multivariate risk factors, the nomogram was constructed for predict the possibility for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) rate. Harrel’s concordance index (c-index) was used to compare the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability between the nomogram and eight contemporary staging systems.

Conclusions

Our prognostic nomogram could accurately and preciously provide individual prediction for AYA HCC patients in OS and DFS after hepatectomy.

Role of curative treatment in patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma

PURPOSE

To retrospectively evaluate the role of curative treatment in patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs), and to identify the subgroup having benefit from curative treatment.

METHODS

From April 2000 to December 2014, 100 patients with intermediate-stage HCCs underwent either curative treatment (hepatectomy: n = 23, radiofrequency ablation (RFA); n = 29, both: n = 4) or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE): n = 44) as initial treatments for HCCs. Overall survival, influence of treatment allocation on prognosis, and factors affecting treatment allocation were evaluated.

RESULTS

The 5-year survival rate was 59.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 51.6-66.8%] in the curative group, and 25.1% (95% CI 11.5-38.7%) in the TACE group. Treatment allocation was the only significant prognostic factor (p = 0.014, hazard ratio: 0.382, 95% CI 0.177-0.821). The curative group consisted of more patients with Child-Pugh A (p = 0.0016) than the TACE group, a tumor number of 3 or fewer (p < 0.0001), a unilobar tumor location (p = 0.02), within 4 of 7 cm criterion (p = 0.001), and within up-to-7 criterion (p = 0.04). Child-Pugh A, within the 4 of 7 cm criterion, and a unilobar tumor location were significantly linked with treatment allocation in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Curative treatment can prolong survival in selected patients with intermediate-stage HCCs.

Preoperative hypoalbuminemia is associated with poor clinical outcomes after open and endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

OBJECTIVE

The effect of preoperative malnutrition on outcomes in patients undergoing major vascular surgery is unclear. We investigated the effects of preoperative hypoalbuminemia, a marker for malnutrition, on outcomes after open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (OAR) and endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR).

METHODS

Patients undergoing OAR or EVAR were identified in the 2005 to 2012 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database and stratified into three groups: normal albumin (serum albumin >3.5 g/dL), moderate hypoalbuminemia (2.8-3.5 g/dL), and severe hypoalbuminemia (<2.8 g/dL). Multivariable analyses were performed to assess the association of preoperative hypoalbuminemia with 30-day morbidity and mortality.

RESULTS

We identified 15,002 patients with a recorded preoperative serum albumin who underwent OAR (n = 4956) or EVAR (n = 10,046). Patients in both cohorts with hypoalbuminemia had a higher burden of comorbidity. In OAR patients, multivariable analyses demonstrated that moderate hypoalbuminemia was associated with an increased risk of 30-day mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.70) and postoperative length of stay (LOS; means ratio [MR], 1.10; 95% CI, 1.04-1.16), whereas severe hypoalbuminemia was associated with increased 30-day mortality (OR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.37-2.70), reoperation ≤30 days (OR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.32-2.48), pulmonary complications (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.06-1.86), and postoperative LOS (MR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.21-1.45). In EVAR patients, moderate hypoalbuminemia was associated with an increased risk of 30-day mortality (OR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.38-2.62), pulmonary complications (OR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.26-2.04), reoperation ≤30 days (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.12-1.74), and postoperative LOS (MR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.18-1.29), whereas severe hypoalbuminemia was associated with increased 30-day mortality (OR, 2.98; 95% CI, 1.96-4.53), pulmonary complications (OR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.32-2.67), reoperation ≤30 days (OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.08-2.19), and postoperative LOS (MR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.40-1.65).

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative hypoalbuminemia is associated with increased postoperative morbidity and mortality in a severity-dependent manner among patients undergoing OAR or EVAR. Evaluation and optimization of nutritional status should be performed preoperatively in this high-risk population.

BMP4 promotes metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma by an induction of epithelial-mesenchymal transition via upregulating ID2

The role of bone morphogenetic protein 4 (BMP4), a crucial epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) mediator, in the progression of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients heretofore has not been elucidated. The present study analyzed BMP4 expression in tumors and paired non-tumorous liver tissue and its correlation with clinicopathological characteristics from two independent cohorts consisting of 420 HCC patients. Functional analysis of BMP4 was performed in Bel-7402 and HCCLM3 HCC cells, and in a murine HCC model. The downstream targets of BMP4 in HCC were screened and confirmed. The results indicated that BMP4 expression was significantly increased in HCC tissue and highly metastatic HCC cells. BMP4 expression was correlated with vein invasion, overall survival and recurrence-free survival of HCC. BMP4 promoted HCC EMT and metastasis in vitro, and consistently in vivo. BMP4 knockdown blocked EMT and tumor metastasis in nude mice. ID2 was up-regulated by recombinant human BMP4, resulting in HCC EMT. Knockdown of ID2 blocked BMP4-induced EMT. In conclusion, BMP4 promotes invasion and metastasis of HCC by an induction of EMT via up-regulating ID2. BMP4 may be a valuable prognostic factor and potential therapeutic target for HCC therapy.

Incorporating albumin-bilirubin grade into the cancer of the liver Italian program system for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade is a recently emerging alternative of the Child-Pugh (CP) grade. The Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) was demonstrated to be a useful prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in large prospective cohorts. We aimed to investigate the feasibility of substituting the CP grade by the ALBI grade in the CLIP system and compare the prognostic performance with other existing staging systems.

METHODS

A large cohort of 1973 Chinese patients with HCC was recruited to evaluate the prognostic performance of CP-based CLIP (CP-CLIP) and ALBI-based CLIP (ALBI-CLIP) systems and nine other staging systems by homogeneity likelihood chi-square, c-index, and corrected Akaike information criterion.

RESULTS

The ALBI-CLIP system provided comparable prognostic performance than the CP-CLIP system, which was indicated by homogeneity likelihood chi-squares (ALBI-CLIP 1186.35 vs CP-CLIP 1145.54), c-indices (ALBI-CLIP 0.789 vs CP-CLIP 0.785) and AICs (ALBI-CLIP 15 493.47 vs CP-CLIP 15 534.28). Among 11 staging systems, ALBI-CLIP and CP-CLIP systems were associated with the highest homogeneity chi-squares and c-indices, and the lowest corrected Akaike information criterion. Patients in ALBI-CLIP score 0-4 had better median survival than those in corresponding CP-CLIP score.

CONCLUSIONS

The ALBI grade performs as well as the CP grade when integrating into the CLIP system. ALBI-CLIP and CP-CLIP systems are the most accurate prognostic models among 11 existing staging systems.

Which system is better to predict prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated by transcatheter arterial chemoembolization as initial therapy? Comparison between CLIP and JIS in a Japanese population

Background There has been no consensus as to which system, either the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) or the Japan Integrated Staging (JIS) system, is suitable to predict the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who underwent transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) as initial therapy. Purpose To retrospectively compare the usefulness of CLIP and JIS in predicting and stratifying the prognosis of HCC patients treated by TACE. Material and Methods Between 1995 and 2005, consecutive 728 patients with untreated HCC who underwent TACE in our institute were selected for this study. The survival rate and its prognostic factors were assessed by multivariate analysis. Patients were stratified according to the two systems, and their survival rates between the scores were compared. Results The mean follow-up period was 1689 days. The 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year survival rates were 83.1%, 55.1%, 34.7%, and 12.8%, respectively. Both systems stratified the prognosis of patients well, but was slightly better in CLIP as compared to in JIS. As for multivariate factor analysis, less severe Child-Pugh classification ( P < 0.001), simple tumor morphology ( P < 0.001), absence of portal vein invasion ( P < 0.001), and lower alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level ( P < 0.001) were suggested to be independent indicators for favorable survival rate. All of these independent factors were included in CLIP, whereas JIS lacked AFP level. Furthermore, the likelihood χ²-test value was higher, and the Akaike information criterion value was lower for CLIP than for JIS. Conclusion CLIP is more suitable than JIS for predicting prognosis of patients with HCC who would undergo TACE in a Japanese population.

Prediction of Early Recurrence of Liver Cancer by a Novel Discrete Bayes Decision Rule for Personalized Medicine

We discuss a novel diagnostic method for predicting the early recurrence of liver cancer with high accuracy for personalized medicine. The difficulty with cancer treatment is that even if the types of cancer are the same, the cancers vary depending on the patient. Thus, remarkable attention has been paid to personalized medicine. Unfortunately, although the Tokyo Score, the Modified JIS, and the TNM classification have been proposed as liver scoring systems, none of these scoring systems have met the needs of clinical practice. In this paper, we convert continuous and discrete data to categorical data and keep the natively categorical data as is. Then, we propose a discrete Bayes decision rule that can deal with the categorical data. This may lead to its use with various types of laboratory data. Experimental results show that the proposed method produced a sensitivity of 0.86 and a specificity of 0.49 for the test samples. This suggests that our method may be superior to the well-known Tokyo Score, the Modified JIS, and the TNM classification in terms of sensitivity. Additional comparative study shows that if the numbers of test samples in two classes are the same, this method works well in terms of the F1 measure compared to the existing scoring methods.

Preoperative Body Mass Index, Blood Albumin and Triglycerides Predict Survival for Patients with Gastric Cancer

Background

Gastric cancer (GC) is common and its prognosis is often poor due to difficulties in early diagnosis and optimal treatment strategies. TNM staging system is useful in predicting prognosis but only possible after surgery. Therefore, it is desirable to investigate prognostic factors/markers that may predict prognosis before surgery by which helps appropriate management decisions preoperatively.

Methods

A total of 320 GC patients were consecutively recruited from 2004 to 2013 and followed up for 127 months (10.6 years) after surgery. These patients’ were examined for body mass index (BMI) and blood levels of albumin, triglyceride, total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). Kaplan-Meier method and log rank test were used to analyze long-term survival using the above potential risk markers. We first employed medians of these variables to reveal maximal potentials of the above prognostic predictors.

Results

Three major findings were obtained: (1) Preoperative BMI was positively correlated with albumin (r = 0.144, P<0.05) and triglyceride (r = 0.365, P<0.01), but negatively correlated with TNM staging (r = -0.265, P<0.05). Preoperative albumin levels were positively correlated with triglyceride (r = 0.173, P<0.05) but again, negatively correlated with TNM staging (r = -0.137, P<0.05); (2) Poor survival was observed in GC patients with lower levels of BMI (P = 0.028), albumin (P = 0.004), and triglyceride (P = 0.043), respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses suggested BMI, albumin and triglyceride to have survival-predictor powers similar to TNM system; and (3) Cox multi-factorial analyses demonstrated that age (P = 0.049), BMI (P = 0.016), cell differentiation (P = 0.001), and TNM staging (P = 0.011) were independent overall survival-predictors for GC patients.

Conclusions

Preoperative BMI, albumin, and triglyceride levels are capable of predicting survival for GC patients superior to postoperative TNM system in terms of timing for management. As potential survival-predictors, preoperative tests of BMI, albumin and triglyceride, combined with clinical imaging, may help personalized management for GC patients including planning surgical strategy, optimal radio-chemotherapy and appropriate follow-up intervals after surgery.

Usefulness of albumin-bilirubin grade for evaluation of prognosis of 2584 Japanese patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The Child-Pugh classification has some non-objective factors, with chronic hepatitis indistinguishable from early liver cirrhosis in Child-Pugh A. We retrospectively evaluated the efficacy of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, which has been proposed as a new classification for hepatic function, for grading hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients based on hepatic function and predicting their prognosis.

METHOD

From 2000 to 2014, 2584 naïve HCC [69.0 ± 9.8 years old, 1850 men, 734 female, Child-Pugh class A:B:C = 1871:558:155] were enrolled. TNM staging was determined using the classification of the Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan and ALBI grade, instead of Child-Pugh classification (ALBI with TNM score: ALBI-T score) (Table 1), and is similar to the Japan Integrated Staging (JIS) score. We retrospectively compared ALBI-T and JIS scores in these patients.

RESULTS

Of patients classified as Child-Pugh A (n = 1871), 1285 with 5 points were divided into 858 with ALBI grade 1 and 427 with grade 2, while 586 with 6 points were divided into 53 with grade 1 and 533 with grade 2. The ratio of ALBI grade 2 patients with a Child-Pugh score of 6 points (91.0%) was similar to that of those with 7 points (91.8%). Patients with a lower ALBI-T score (0-5 points) showed a better median survival time than those with a corresponding lower JIS score [137.7:83.2:53.4:27.4:5.0:1.4 vs 97.6:74.9:39.7:15.0:4.0:1.0 months].

CONCLUSION

Albumin-bilirubin grade was found to be superior for distinguishing patients with better hepatic function. ALBI-T scoring may be a better total prognostic scoring system for predicting survival of Japanese patients with HCC.

A prognostic index for patients within the intermediate stage of hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer algorithm is the most widely used staging system for hepatocellular carcinoma, but the intermediate stage of this classification comprises a very heterogeneous group of patients with different survival probabilities. The aim of our study was to construct a simple prognostic index for identifying subgroups of patients with different prognoses within the intermediate stage.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Three-hundred and seven patients were retrospectively analyzed and randomly divided into a training sample (n=205), from which the model was developed, and a test sample (n=102), to independently assess the model's performance.

RESULTS

Four variables were retained in the final multivariate model: hepatic failure, number of nodules, α-fetoprotein, and albumin, with hazard ratios equal to 2.22 (95% confidence interval: 1.52-3.24), 1.47 (1.00-2.18), 2.34 (1.56-3.52), and 1.75 (1.26-2.44), respectively. The score system was derived by summing up the linear weights assigned to the four covariates according to the observed regression coefficients. The score ranged between 4 and 13; to avoid sparse-data bias arising from small numbers within strata, only four categories (4-5, 6-7, 8-9, 10-13) were identified. The prognosis worsened significantly with increasing score and the C-index for discriminatory accuracy was equal to 0.66 (95% confidence interval: 0.60-0.72). The score was validated in the test sample (log-rank test P=0.02). Similar results were found when evaluating the score as a continuous variable.

CONCLUSION

The simple prognostic index predicts survival in patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma. This score might help guide treatment selection and patient stratification in clinical studies.

Development and Validation of a New Prognostic System for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Prognostic assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. Using the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database as a training set, we sought to develop and validate a new prognostic system for patients with HCC.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Prospective collected databases from Italy (training cohort, n = 3,628; internal validation cohort, n = 1,555) and Taiwan (external validation cohort, n = 2,651) were used to develop the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system. We first defined ITA.LI.CA stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, C) using only tumor characteristics (largest tumor diameter, number of nodules, intra- and extrahepatic macroscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic metastases). A parametric multivariable survival model was then used to calculate the relative prognostic value of ITA.LI.CA tumor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Child-Pugh score (CPS), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in predicting individual survival. Based on the model results, an ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score (from 0 to 13 points) was constructed, and its prognostic power compared with that of other integrated systems (BCLC, HKLC, MESIAH, CLIP, JIS). Median follow-up was 58 mo for Italian patients (interquartile range, 26-106 mo) and 39 mo for Taiwanese patients (interquartile range, 12-61 mo). The ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score showed optimal discrimination and calibration abilities in Italian patients. Observed median survival in the training and internal validation sets was 57 and 61 mo, respectively, in quartile 1 (ITA.LI.CA score ≤ 1), 43 and 38 mo in quartile 2 (ITA.LI.CA score 2-3), 23 and 23 mo in quartile 3 (ITA.LI.CA score 4-5), and 9 and 8 mo in quartile 4 (ITA.LI.CA score > 5). Observed and predicted median survival in the training and internal validation sets largely coincided. Although observed and predicted survival estimations were significantly lower (log-rank test, p < 0.001) in Italian than in Taiwanese patients, the ITA.LI.CA score maintained very high discrimination and calibration features also in the external validation cohort. The concordance index (C index) of the ITA.LI.CA score in the internal and external validation cohorts was 0.71 and 0.78, respectively. The ITA.LI.CA score's prognostic ability was significantly better (p < 0.001) than that of BCLC stage (respective C indexes of 0.64 and 0.73), CLIP score (0.68 and 0.75), JIS stage (0.67 and 0.70), MESIAH score (0.69 and 0.77), and HKLC stage (0.68 and 0.75). The main limitations of this study are its retrospective nature and the intrinsically significant differences between the Taiwanese and Italian groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system includes both a tumor staging-stratifying patients with HCC into six main stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, and C)-and a prognostic score-integrating ITA.LI.CA tumor staging, CPS, ECOG performance status, and AFP. The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system shows a strong ability to predict individual survival in European and Asian populations.

Determination of Resectability

The nuances of determining resectability for liver tumors can be difficult to navigate, owing to the variety of primary and secondary malignancies involving the liver, the range of patient-specific factors to consider, and the hepatic anatomic and functional variability that seems inevitable. The basic principles, however, are simple;if surgery is deemed appropriate from an oncologic standpoint, the patient is in reasonably good health, and the tumor can be safely removed without compromising the integrity of the future remnant, nearly all patients will be candidates for resection.

A Hepatocellular Carcinoma Aggressiveness Index and Its Relationship to Liver Enzyme Levels

BACKGROUND

Prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is influenced by both liver and tumor factors, which have been considered independent influences. However, recent evidence has shown that the underlying liver also has prognostic information.

AIMS

To investigate possible relationships between liver function parameters and HCC aggressiveness indices.

METHODS

A large HCC patient database with baseline clinical information and survival data was retrospectively examined.

RESULTS

Data on 756 HCC patients with normal bilirubin were examined for a relationship between serum liver enzymes and 4 HCC aggressiveness indices of maximum tumor diameter, portal vein invasion, tumor multifocality or serum alpha-fetoprotein levels. An association was found between elevated enzyme levels and increased HCC aggressiveness. An aggressiveness index was constructed from the 4 indices and expressed as a sum of their scores, which in turn reflected 3 survival groups. In a Cox model, the hazard ratios for each of the groups were significantly different.

CONCLUSIONS

Statistically significant correlations were found between standard liver function parameters and HCC aggressiveness. A composite aggressiveness index was constructed, yielding 3 groups with different survival probabilities. These findings support the concept of the importance of the underlying liver in relation to HCC biology.

[Diagnosis and treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma. Update consensus document from the AEEH, SEOM, SERAM, SERVEI and SETH]

Hepatocellular carcinoma is the most common primary malignancy of the liver and one of the most frequent causes of death in patients with liver cirrhosis. Simultaneously with the recognition of the clinical relevance of this neoplasm, in recent years there have been important developments in the diagnosis, staging and treatment of HCC. Consequently, the Asociación Española para el Estudio del Hígado has driven the need to update clinical practice guidelines, continuing to invite all the societies involved in the diagnosis and treatment of this disease to participate in the drafting and approval of the document (Sociedad Española de Trasplante Hepático, Sociedad Española de Radiología Médica, Sociedad Española de Radiología Vascular e Intervencionista y Sociedad Española de Oncología Médica). The clinical practice guidelines published in 2009 accepted as Clinical Practice Guidelines of the National Health System has been taken as reference document, incorporating the most important advances that have been made in recent years. The scientific evidence for the treatment of HCC has been evaluated according to the recommendations of the National Cancer Institute (www.cancer.gov) and the strength of recommendation is based on the GRADE system.

Prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma: Assessment of eleven staging systems

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Multiple staging systems have been proposed for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However there is no consensus regarding which system provides the best prognostic accuracy. We aimed to investigate the performance of 11 currently used HCC staging systems.

METHODS

Between 2002 and 2013, a large prospective dataset of 3182 HCC patients were enrolled. The baseline characteristics and staging information were collected. Independent predictors of survival were identified. Homogeneity and corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc) were compared between each system.

RESULTS

The median follow-up duration was 17months. Independent predictors of adverse outcome were serum albumin <3.5g/dl, bilirubin ⩾1mg/dl, creatinine ⩾1mg/dl, alpha-fetoprotein ⩾20ng/ml, alkaline phosphatase ⩾200IU/L, presence of ascites, multiple tumor nodules, maximal tumor size >5cm, presence of vascular invasion, presence of extrahepatic metastasis, and poor performance status (all p<0.001). Significant differences in survival were found across all stages of the 11 systems except between Hong Kong Liver Cancer stage IV and V, Japan Integrated Staging score 4 and 5, and Tokyo score 5 through 8. The Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score was associated with the highest homogeneity and lowest AICc value in the entire cohort. In subgroup analysis, the CLIP score was also superior in patients with hepatitis B- or hepatitis C-related HCC and in patients receiving curative or non-curative treatments.

CONCLUSIONS

The CLIP staging system is stable and consistently the best prognostic model in all patients and in patients with different viral etiology and treatment strategy.

A Patient-Based Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival after Radiofrequency Ablation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

PURPOSE

To develop a prognostic nomogram based on specific patient and tumor factors capable of estimating individual survival outcomes after radiofrequency (RF) ablation as a primary therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study included 893 patients who were initially treated with curative RF ablation for HCC; patients were temporally divided into derivation (n = 607) and validation (n = 286) cohorts. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model for overall survival was developed and validated. The discriminatory accuracy of the model was compared with the preexisting Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) system and the Tokyo score previously proposed for percutaneous therapy for HCC by analyzing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

A nomogram was generated for 3-year survival, incorporating largest tumor diameter and number of tumors, serum albumin and creatinine, platelet count, prothrombin time, and serum α-fetoprotein on a logarithmic scale. It had good calibration and discrimination abilities with a C-index of 0.74. The validation results also showed that the nomogram performed well in terms of goodness-of-fit and discrimination (C-index, 0.72). Analysis of ROC curves in the validation cohort indicated that the model had better predictive power than CLIP and Tokyo scores (C-indexes, 0.54 and 0.66, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This prognostic tool quantifying per-patient expected survival after RF ablation can be used in daily clinical decision making with regard to patients with HCC deemed suitable for radical ablation and is probably more reliable than existing guidelines.

Validation of models in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: comparison of Hong Kong Liver Cancer with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system in a Chinese cohort

OBJECTIVE

Accurate staging information is necessary to determine the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to guide subsequent patient management. This study aims to investigate the prognostic performance of the Hong Kong Liver Cancer (HKLC) classification in a Chinese cohort of HCC patients.

METHODS

A total of 668 HCC patients between 2003 and 2012 were included. Performances of the HKLC and the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system were compared using Akaike information criterion (AIC), concordance-index (c-index), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Independent prognostic factors of survival were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

Independent predictors of survival were Child-Pugh grade (P=0.009), lactate dehydrogenase (P<0.001) and albumin (P=0.001) levels, tumor location (P=0.032), tumor number (P<0.001), tumor size (P<0.001), and vascular invasion (P<0.001). Discriminatory ability was shown to be better for HKLC (AUC at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.740, 0.695, and 0.615, respectively) than BCLC (AUC at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.622, 0.569, and 0.548, respectively). On the basis of AIC and c-index, HKLC had a higher predictive power for survival (AIC=4709.480, c-index=0.805) than BCLC (AIC=4852.708, c-index=0.717).

CONCLUSION

In our selected patient population, whose main etiology was hepatitis B, the HKLC system was more suitable for predicting prognosis in a Chinese cohort of HCC patients than the BCLC classification.

Prognosis of Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: The Clinical Implications of Substages of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer System Based on a Cohort of 1265 Patients

The prognostic implication of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) substages in Asian patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still obscure.The aim to this study is to compare the prognoses among HCC patients in different substages of the BCLC stage 0 and A.We enrolled 1265 treatment-naive HCC patients with BCLC stage 0 or A from 2007 to 2014. Factors in terms of prognoses were analyzed by multivariate analysis.There were 184, 446, 271, 92, and 272 patients in substage 0, A1, A2, A3, and A4, respectively. After a median follow-up period of 21.0 months, patients in stages 0 and A1 had comparable prognoses (P = 0.136). Both of them had significantly higher overall survival rates than those in stages A2-A4 (all P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that the factors associated with mortality were serum albumin ≤3.5 g/dL (hazard ratio [HR] 1.459), alpha-fetoprotein >20 ng/mL (HR 1.863), tumor size >3 cm (HR 1.542), BCLC stage A2-A4 (HR 1.488), and treatment modality. Surgical resection had the highest overall survival rate followed by radiofrequency ablation (RFA) (HR 1.598), transarterial chemoembolization (HR 2.224), and other treatments (HR 3.707). Verus patients receiving RFA, those who underwent resection had a higher overall survival rate and lower recurrence rate especially in BCLC stages A2-A4.The BCLC-staging system provided good prognostic stratification for early-stage HCC. Patients with a single tumor >2 cm but without portal hypertension or jaundice had similar prognosis to those in BCLC stage 0. Curative therapies-especially hepatic resection-are suggested in early-stage HCC.