Serum bilirubin levels on ICU admission are associated with ARDS development and mortality in sepsis

Increased mortality in critically ill patients with mild or moderate hyperbilirubinemia

PURPOSE

Increased bilirubin concentrations may be related to outcome, but this has not been well studied. We evaluated the relationship between total serum bilirubin levels and outcome in critically ill patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data were analyzed from adult critically ill patients included in a 1-day international prevalence study after excluding those with an obvious underlying cause of hyperbilirubinemia.

RESULTS

Serum bilirubin concentrations were >1 mg/dL in 2803 (31%) of 8973 patients, and these patients had higher mortality rates than patients with lower bilirubin concentrations (30% vs 21%, P<.01). For serum bilirubin values of 1.1-6 mg/dL, there was a linear increase in crude mortality (R²=0.96), with the highest hospital mortality (42%) in patients with bilirubin concentrations between 3.7 and 6.0 mg/dL. There was no further increase in the mortality rates for patients with bilirubin concentrations >6 mg/dL. A serum bilirubin concentration >1 mg/dL was an independent risk factor for mortality in multilevel analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Hyperbilirubinemia without a recognized cause was common and independently associated with increased mortality. There was a linear correlation of mortality with bilirubin concentration for values between 1 and 6 mg/dL but not for higher values.

Early Hepatic Dysfunction Is Associated with a Worse Outcome in Patients Presenting with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: A Post-Hoc Analysis of the ACURASYS and PROSEVA Studies

Introduction

Bilirubin is well-recognized marker of hepatic dysfunction in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Multiple organ failure often complicates acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) evolution and is associated with high mortality. The effect of early hepatic dysfunction on ARDS mortality has been poorly investigated. We evaluated the incidence and the prognostic significance of increased serum bilirubin levels in the initial phase of ARDS.

Methods

The data of 805 patients with ARDS were retrospectively analysed. This population was extracted from two recent multicenter, prospective and randomised trials. Patients presenting with ARDS with a ratio of the partial pressure of arterial oxygen to the fraction of inspired oxygen < 150 mmHg measured with a PEEP ≥ 5 cm of water were included. The total serum bilirubin was measured at inclusion and at days 2, 4, 7 and 14. The primary objective was to analyse the bilirubin at inclusion according to the 90-day mortality rate.

Results

The 90-day mortality rate was 33.8% (n = 272). The non-survivors were older, had higher Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and were more likely to have a medical diagnosis on admission than the survivors. At inclusion, the SOFA score without the liver score (10.3±2.9 vs. 9.0±3.0, p<0.0001) and the serum bilirubin levels (36.1±57.0 vs. 20.5±31.5 μmol/L, p<0.0001) were significantly higher in the non-survivors than in the survivors. Age, the hepatic SOFA score, the coagulation SOFA score, the arterial pH level, and the plateau pressure were independently associated with 90-day mortality in patients with ARDS.

Conclusion

Bilirubin used as a surrogate marker of hepatic dysfunction and measured early in the course of ARDS was associated with the 90-day mortality rate.

Clinical associations of host genetic variations in the genes of cytokines in critically ill patients

Host genetic variations may influence a changing profile of biochemical markers and outcome in patients with trauma/injury. The objective of this study was to assess clinical associations of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the genes of cytokines in critically ill patients. A total of 430 patients were genotyped for SNPs in the genes of pro- (IL1B, IL6, IL8) and anti-inflammatory (IL4, IL10, IL13) cytokines. The main end-points were sepsis, mortality and adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We evaluated the dynamic levels of bilirubin, blood urea nitrogen, creatine kinase, creatinine and lactate dehydrogenase in five points of measurements (between 1 and 14 days after admission) and correlated them with SNPs. High-producing alleles of proinflammatory cytokines protected patients against sepsis (IL1B -511A and IL8 -251A) and mortality (IL1B -511A). High-producing alleles of anti-inflammatory cytokines IL4 -589T and IL13 431A (144Gln) were less frequent in ARDS patients. The carriers of IL6 -174C/C genotypes were prone to the increased levels of biochemical markers and acute kidney and liver insufficiency. Genotype-dependent differences in the levels of biochemical indicators gradually increased to a maximal value on the 14th day after admission. These findings suggest that genetic variability in pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines may contribute to different clinical phenotypes in patients at high risk of critical illness.

The Association of Serum Bilirubin Levels on the Outcomes of Severe Sepsis

Purpose:

Admission serum bilirubin levels have been incorporated into severity of illness scoring systems in critical illness as a marker of liver dysfunction. The purpose of our study is to determine the independent association of serum bilirubin with mortality in severe sepsis and septic shock.

Methods:

We conducted a retrospective study of adult patients admitted with severe sepsis and septic shock. We excluded patients with a prior history of liver disease. We identified the highest serum bilirubin within 72 hours of admission and stratified bilirubin levels into ≤1 mg/dL (normal), 1.1 to 2 mg/dL (abnormal up to 2 mg/dL), and >2 mg/dL. We sought to determine the independent association of hyperbilirubinemia with mortality and length of intensive care unit stay in persons with severe sepsis and septic shock.

Results:

A total of 251 patients met criteria for severe sepsis. In all, 200 patients had a bilirubin of <1 mg/dL, and 51 had a bilirubin of >1 mg/dL. Of these 51, 12 had a bilirubin >2 mg/dL. Mortality was 12%, 24%, and 42% in persons with a bilirubin ≤1, 1.1 to 2, and >2 mg/dL, respectively. Compared to those with a bilirubin ≤ 1 mg/dL, adjusted odds of mortality in patients were 3.85 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21-12.2) and 9.85 (95% CI 1.92-50.5) times higher in persons with bilirubin levels between 1.1 and 2 and >2 mg/dL, respectively.

Conclusion:

After multivariable adjustment for potential confounding factors, elevated serum bilirubin levels within 72 hours of admission are associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock. Prospective studies are warranted to further validate our findings.

Introduction of an electronic physiological early warning system: effects on mortality and length of stay

BACKGROUND

The Worthing physiological scoring system (PSS) was first validated in 2005 as a tool to predict hospital mortality on admission and was subsequently introduced into clinical practice at Worthing Hospital, UK. Five years on, this study was conducted to determine the effects on mortality and length of stay (LOS) after the introduction of electronic alerting software using the PSS. In addition, we investigated whether the Worthing PSS predictive ability could be improved by addition of further variables.

METHODS

Prospective observational study conducted in the acute medical unit, Worthing Hospital, UK. Patient physiological data on admission and discharge/transfer were collected between February and July 2010 from the electronic alerting software VitalPAC™. Patient characteristics, co-morbidity, outcomes, and biochemistry data were taken from the hospital administration and pathology systems.

RESULTS

The observed mortality reduction from 8.3% to 5.2% over 5 yr was not statistically significant after adjustment for admission Worthing PSS score. Median LOS was reduced from 4 to 2 days, but this reflected an increase in short stay admissions. Worthing PSS was not significantly improved with the addition of biochemical variables or patient co-morbidity. A score taken before admission to a medical ward showed an improved predictive ability when compared with the initial admission score, but further analysis found no additional clinical benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of an electronic alerting PSS did not lead to a reduction in mortality when adjusted for severity of illness defined by physiological variables. Predictive performance was not enhanced by the addition of biochemical variables and co-morbidities.

Sepsis-associated cholestasis in adult patients: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Sepsis-associated cholestasis is a common problem in neonatal patients. However, there are limited data related to sepsis-associated cholestasis in adults. In this study, the authors assessed the clinical characteristics, risk factors and outcome of adult patients with sepsis-associated cholestasis.

METHODS

An observational prospective single-center study was conducted. A total of 608 patients with sepsis (66 patients with cholestasis and 542 without evidence of cholestasis) from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2011, were included from the infectious disease unit. Demographic, clinical and laboratory information were recorded on admission for all patients. Additional data were also collected on the day of the 1st episode of bacteremia for patients who developed cholestasis. Accordingly, the organ dysfunction scores (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation [APACHE] II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [SOFA]) were assessed on the same day.

RESULTS

The mean age of the 608 patients was 49.3 ± 11.4 years (range, 22-83 years); 312 (51.3%) patients were men, 296 (48.7%) were women. The mean APACHE II and SOFA score were 15.2 ± 6 and 5.6 ± 2.3, respectively. Sepsis-associated cholestasis was strongly associated with older age, biomarkers of organ dysfunction and clinical composite scores (APACHE II and SOFA). Mortality was higher in patients with sepsis-associated cholestasis (10.6%) compared with subjects with sepsis without cholestasis (1.5%) (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The authors found that sepsis-associated cholestasis affects the outcome of patients with sepsis in the infectious disease unit. Additional clinical studies are necessary to elucidate the pathology and pathophysiology of sepsis-associated cholestasis.

[Liver dysfunctions in intensive care patients--consequences for the treatment of invasive Candida infections]

Liver dysfunction is common among patients on intensive care units (ICU) due to sepsis, chronic liver disease, ischemic hepatitis, drug toxicity and intensive care measures. Critically ill patients with invasive fungal infections should therefore be treated with antifungals that are not metabolized by the liver. This may help to avoid therapeutic complications by drug accumulation, inadequate dosages or drug-drug interactions. Echinocandins are established as the antifungal class of choice in the treatment of invasive Candida infections. Anidulafungin is not hepatically metabolized and may be used without dose adjustments in patients with severe liver dysfunction. It has no known clinically relevant drug interactions. In the primary endpoint of the randomized pivotal trial in patients with candidemia or invasive candidiasis, anidulafungin was statistically superior versus the former standard therapy (fluconazole), with a favourable overall safety profile. More recent study data particularly in ICU patients confirm the efficacy of anidulafungin for these patient groups. Therefore, anidulafungin is an important antifungal treatment option for patients with liver dysfunction.

Risk factors of organ failure in patients with bacteremic cholangitis

BACKGROUND

Bacteremic cholangitis carries a high mortality rate of up to 10 % in relation to organ failure (OF), including septic shock.

AIM

The purpose of this study was to elucidate predictive factors for OF in bacteremic cholangitis.

METHODS

A retrospective review of all patients diagnosed with acute cholangitis and proven bacteremia from 2003 to 2011 was performed. Comprehensive clinical and laboratory data of 211 patients were analyzed.

RESULTS

There were 42 cases (19.9 %) of OF and 5 deaths (2.4 %). In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, significant predictive factors for OF were successful biliary decompression, presence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase organism (ESBL), higher total bilirubin, and higher blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level at admission with odds ratios (ORs) of 0.129, 6.793, 1.148, and 1.089, respectively. Subgroup analysis of 165 patients who underwent biliary decompression before an event (with OF: 20, without OF: 145) was performed to elucidate the risk factors for organ failure even after successful biliary drainage. Variables significantly associated with OF included ESBL and BUN (OR = 4.123 and 1.177, respectively). We developed a scoring system with regression coefficient of each significant variable. The organ failure score was calculated using the following equation: (1.4 × ESBL) + (0.2 × BUN). This scoring system for predicting OF was highly sensitive (85.0 %) and specific (83.4 %).

CONCLUSIONS

Biliary decompression, ESBL, total bilirubin, and BUN are prognostic determinants in patients with bacteremic cholangitis. An organ failure scoring system may allow clinicians to identify groups with poor prognosis even after successful biliary decompression.

Gene polymorphisms in the heme degradation pathway and outcome of severe human sepsis

Heme and its breakdown products CO, Fe, and bilirubin are being recognized as signaling molecules or even therapeutic agents, but also exert adverse effects when released at high concentrations. Manipulating the pathway confers protection in rodent sepsis models via both control of free heme and formation of its first and higher-order products. Thus, regulatory elements present in human heme oxygenase 1 (HMOX1) and biliverdin reductases (BLVRA/B) genes might impact outcome. We tested whether a highly polymorphic (GT)n microsatellite and single-nucleotide polymorphisms in HMOX1 and BLVRA/B genes are associated with outcome of sepsis. Two cohorts (n = 430 and 398 patients) with severe sepsis were screened for single-nucleotide polymorphisms and/or the microsatellite by fragment length analysis and genotyping techniques. Heme oxygenase 1 plasma levels were determined in additional patients with severe sepsis (n = 92) by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Based on mean Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment scores, patients homozygous for rs2071746 A allele or medium length (GT)n microsatellites of HMOX1 showed higher 28-day mortality (P = 0.047 and P = 0.033) in one cohort compared with other genotypes, whereas 90-day mortality rates showed no association. The T allele was less frequently observed in both cohorts than would be expected according to Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Heme oxygenase 1 plasma levels were elevated in septic patients, independent of the genotype. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms within BLVRA/B showed no association with outcome. Short (GT)n repeats that are in linkage disequilibrium with the T allele of rs2071746 in HMOX1 are associated with favorable outcome, whereas no association with gene variants of BLVRA/B, involved in the generation of higher-order metabolites, was noticed.

Bilirubin augments radiation injury and leads to increased infection and mortality in mice: molecular mechanisms

Our earlier results demonstrated that clinically relevant concentrations of unconjugated bilirubin (UCB) possessed immunotoxic effects. Whole-body irradiation (WBI) with 1 to 6 Gy leads to acute radiation syndrome, immunosuppression, and makes the host susceptible to infection. Since hyperbilirubinemia has been shown to be associated with several types of cancer, the present studies were undertaken to evaluate the radiomodifying effects of UCB in radiation-exposed mice having elevated levels of UCB. Pretreatment of splenic lymphocytes with UCB (1-50 μM at UCB/BSA ratio <1) augmented radiation-induced DNA strand breaks, MMP loss, calcium release, and apoptosis. Combination treatment of mice with UCB (50mg/kg bw) followed by WBI (2 Gy) 0.5h later, resulted in significantly increased splenic atrophy, bone marrow aplasia, decreased counts of peritoneal exudate cells, and different splenocyte subsets such as CD3+ T, CD4+ T, CD8+ T, CD19+ B, and CD14+ macrophages as compared to either UCB or WBI treatment. Hematological studies showed that WBI-induced lymphopenia, thrombocytopenia, and neutropenia were further aggravated in the combination treatment group. UCB pretreatment of mice potentiated WBI-induced apoptosis and decreased WBI-induced loss of functional response of various immune cells leading to augmentation of immunosuppression and infection susceptibility caused by WBI. In an acute bacterial peritonitis model, UCB pretreatment of mice significantly increased WBI-induced proinflammatory cytokines, nitric oxide, and peritoneal bacterial load resulting in increased infection and death. Studies using the pharmacological inhibitor of p38MAPK demonstrated the involvement of p38MAPK activation in the inflammatory cascade of peritonitis. These findings should prove useful in understanding the potential risk to hyperbilirubinemic patients during radiotherapy and victims of acute radiation exposure in the course of radiation accidents.

Performance evaluation of a whole blood propofol analyser

The authors evaluated an analyser for the determination of propofol concentrations in whole blood. The Pelorus 1000 (Sphere Medical) measures propofol concentrations in around 5 min without the requirement for sample preparation. The performance of the analyser was characterised with respect to linearity, precision in control solutions and whole blood and method comparison to an HPLC based reference method. In addition, the effects of substances considered to potentially affect the assay method were investigated. The analyser was found to be linear up to 12 μg/ml (R2 = 0.9993), with a lower limit of quantification of 0.75 μg/ml. Total within device imprecision in control solutions was 0.11 μg/ml at 5.32 μg/ml and 0.17 μg/ml at 10.3 μg/ml. Within run precision in whole blood was 0.04 μg/ml at 2.84 μg/ml and 0.08 μg/ml at 6.68 μg/ml and for the reference method was 0.06 μg/ml and 0.12 μg/ml respectively. In comparison to the reference method, the overall bias of the Pelorus 1000 system over the range is estimated to be 0.15 μg/ml (95% confidence interval -0.11-0.41 μg/ml). The only cross interference of note is to a highly elevated level of conjugated bilirubin, while low haematocrit levels lead to a 0.13 μg/ml under reading with respect to the HPLC reference. The system fulfils the requirements for measurement of propofol concentrations in whole blood samples with precision and accuracy suitable for elucidating propofol pharmacokinetics at clinically relevant concentrations. With no requirement for sample preparation and a fast time to results, the analyser opens up the possibility of studies to measure and respond to blood propofol concentrations in patients in close to real time.

Epidemiology of ARDS and ALI

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and acute lung injury (ALI) are distinctly modern clinical entities. Recent epidemiologic research has taken advantage of large cohorts in efforts to better describe these highly lethal syndromes with a focus on differentiation of clinically meaningful subtypes and early prediction in an effort to improve treatment and prevention. This article identifies the most significant studies and systematic reviews of recent years, defining the incidence, mortality, risk and prognostic factors, and etiologic classes of ARDS/ALI.

Biomarkers in acute lung injury--marking forward progress

This article reviews the state of the art regarding biomarkers for prediction, diagnosis, and prognosis in acute lung injury. Biomarkers and the goals of biomarker research are defined. Progress along 4 general routes is examined. First, the results of wide-ranging existing protein biomarkers are reported. Second, newer biomarkers awaiting or with strong potential for validation are described. Third, progress in the fields of genomics and proteomics is reported. Finally, given the complexity and number of potential biomarkers, the results of combining clinical predictors with protein and other biomarkers to produce better prognostic and diagnostic indices are examined.

Dynamics of neuron-glia interplay upon exposure to unconjugated bilirubin

Microglia are the main players of the brain immune response. They act as active sensors that rapidly respond to injurious insults by shifting into different activated states. Elevated levels of unconjugated bilirubin (UCB) induce cell death, immunostimulation and oxidative stress in both neurons and astrocytes. We recently reported that microglial phagocytic phenotype precedes the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines upon UCB exposure. We investigated whether and how microglia microenvironment influences the response to UCB. Our findings revealed that conditioned media derived from UCB-treated astrocytes reduce microglial inflammatory reaction and cell death, suggesting an attempt to curtail microglial over activation. Conditioned medium from UCB-challenged neurons, although down-regulating tumor necrosis factor-α and interleukin-1β promoted the release of interleukin-6 and nitric oxide, the activation of matrix metalloproteinase-9, and cell death, as compared with UCB-direct effects on microglia. Moreover, soluble factors released by UCB-treated neurons intensified the phagocytic properties manifested by microglia under direct exposure to UCB. Results from neuron-microglia mixed cultures incubated with UCB evidenced that sensitized microglia were able to prevent neurite outgrowth impairment and cell death. In conclusion, our data indicate that stressed neurons signal microglial clearance functions, but also overstimulate its inflammatory potential ultimately leading to microglia demise.

Early identification of patients at risk of acute lung injury: evaluation of lung injury prediction score in a multicenter cohort study

RATIONALE

Accurate, early identification of patients at risk for developing acute lung injury (ALI) provides the opportunity to test and implement secondary prevention strategies.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the frequency and outcome of ALI development in patients at risk and validate a lung injury prediction score (LIPS).

METHODS

In this prospective multicenter observational cohort study, predisposing conditions and risk modifiers predictive of ALI development were identified from routine clinical data available during initial evaluation. The discrimination of the model was assessed with area under receiver operating curve (AUC). The risk of death from ALI was determined after adjustment for severity of illness and predisposing conditions.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Twenty-two hospitals enrolled 5,584 patients at risk. ALI developed a median of 2 (interquartile range 1-4) days after initial evaluation in 377 (6.8%; 148 ALI-only, 229 adult respiratory distress syndrome) patients. The frequency of ALI varied according to predisposing conditions (from 3% in pancreatitis to 26% after smoke inhalation). LIPS discriminated patients who developed ALI from those who did not with an AUC of 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.82). When adjusted for severity of illness and predisposing conditions, development of ALI increased the risk of in-hospital death (odds ratio, 4.1; 95% confidence interval, 2.9-5.7).

CONCLUSIONS

ALI occurrence varies according to predisposing conditions and carries an independently poor prognosis. Using routinely available clinical data, LIPS identifies patients at high risk for ALI early in the course of their illness. This model will alert clinicians about the risk of ALI and facilitate testing and implementation of ALI prevention strategies. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00889772).

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of sepsis-related vs non-sepsis-related ARDS

BACKGROUND

ARDS may occur after either septic or nonseptic injuries. Sepsis is the major cause of ARDS, but little is known about the differences between sepsis-related and non-sepsis-related ARDS.

METHODS

A total of 2,786 patients with ARDS-predisposing conditions were enrolled consecutively into a prospective cohort, of which 736 patients developed ARDS. We defined sepsis-related ARDS as ARDS developing in patients with sepsis and non-sepsis-related ARDS as ARDS developing after nonseptic injuries, such as trauma, aspiration, and multiple transfusions. Patients with both septic and nonseptic risks were excluded from analysis.

RESULTS

Compared with patients with non-sepsis-related ARDS (n = 62), patients with sepsis-related ARDS (n = 524) were more likely to be women and to have diabetes, less likely to have preceding surgery, and had longer pre-ICU hospital stays and higher APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III) scores (median, 78 vs 65, P < .0001). There were no differences in lung injury score, blood pH, Pao(2)/Fio(2) ratio, and Paco(2) on ARDS diagnosis. However, patients with sepsis-related ARDS had significantly lower Pao(2)/Fio(2) ratios than patients with non-sepsis-related ARDS patients on ARDS day 3 (P = .018), day 7 (P = .004), and day 14 (P = .004) (repeated-measures analysis, P = .011). Compared with patients with non-sepsis-related ARDS, those with sepsis-related had a higher 60-day mortality (38.2% vs 22.6%; P = .016), a lower successful extubation rate (53.6% vs 72.6%; P = .005), and fewer ICU-free days (P = .0001) and ventilator-free days (P = .003). In multivariate analysis, age, APACHE III score, liver cirrhosis, metastatic cancer, admission serum bilirubin and glucose levels, and treatment with activated protein C were independently associated with 60-day ARDS mortality. After adjustment, sepsis-related ARDS was no longer associated with higher 60-day mortality (hazard ratio, 1.26; 95% CI, 0.71-2.22).

CONCLUSION

Sepsis-related ARDS has a higher overall disease severity, poorer recovery from lung injury, lower successful extubation rate, and higher mortality than non-sepsis-related ARDS. Worse clinical outcomes in sepsis-related ARDS appear to be driven by disease severity and comorbidities.

Predicting mortality from HIV-associated Pneumocystis pneumonia at illness presentation: an observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although the use of antiretroviral therapy has led to dramatic declines in AIDS-associated mortality, Pneumocystis pneumonia (PCP) remains a leading cause of death in HIV-infected patients.

OBJECTIVES

To measure mortality, identify predictors of mortality at time of illness presentation and derive a PCP mortality prediction rule that stratifies patients by risk for mortality.

METHODS

An observational cohort study with case note review of all HIV-infected persons with a laboratory diagnosis of PCP at San Francisco General Hospital from 1997 to 2006.

RESULTS

451 patients were diagnosed with PCP on 524 occasions. In-hospital mortality was 10.3%. Multivariate analysis identified five significant predictors of mortality: age (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) per 10-year increase, 1.69; 95% CI 1.08 to 2.65; p = 0.02); recent injection drug use (AOR 2.86; 95% CI 1.28 to 6.42; p = 0.01); total bilirubin >0.6 mg/dl (AOR 2.59; 95% CI 1.19 to 5.62; p = 0.02); serum albumin <3 g/dl (AOR 3.63; 95% CI 1.72-7.66; p = 0.001); and alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient >or=50 mm Hg (AOR 3.02; 95% CI 1.41 to 6.47; p = 0.004). Using these five predictors, a six-point PCP mortality prediction rule was derived that stratifies patients according to increasing risk of mortality: score 0-1, 4%; score 2-3, 12%; score 4-5, 48%.

CONCLUSIONS

The PCP mortality prediction rule stratifies patients by mortality risk at the time of illness presentation and should be validated as a clinical tool.