Shared decision making in atrial fibrillation: where we are and where we should be going

Creation and Implementation of an Outpatient Pathway for Atrial Fibrillation in the Emergency Department Setting: Results of an Expert Panel

Atrial fibrillation and flutter (AF) is a common condition among emergency department (ED) patients in the United States. Traditionally, ED care for primary complaints related to AF focus on rate control, and patients are often admitted to an inpatient setting for further care. Inpatient care may include further telemetry monitoring and diagnostic testing, rhythm control, a search for identification of AF etiology, and stroke prophylaxis. However, many patients are eligible for safe and effective outpatient management pathways. They are widely used in Canada and other countries but less widely adopted in the United States. In this project, we convened an expert panel to create a practical framework for the process of creating, implementing, and maintaining an outpatient AF pathway for emergency physicians to assess and treat AF patients, safely reduce hospitalization rates, ensure appropriate stroke prophylaxis, and effectively transition patients to longitudinal outpatient treatment settings from the ED and/or observation unit. To support local pathway creation, the panel also reached agreement on a protocol development plan, a sample pathway, consensus recommendations for pathway components, sample pathway metrics, and a structured literature review framework using a modified Delphi technique by a technical expert panel of emergency medicine, cardiology, and other stakeholder groups.

Patients' Perceptions of Atrial Fibrillation, Stroke Risk, and Oral Anticoagulation Treatment: An International Survey

Background  Global differences exist in the management of atrial fibrillation (AF), and cultural differences may influence patients' expectations and perceptions of healthcare. This survey investigated whether country-specific differences in patients' perceptions of AF and oral anticoagulation (OAC) exist and if recent stroke influences these perceptions. Methods  Cross-sectional survey of 937 adults with nonvalvular AF receiving OAC for stroke prevention was conducted across United States, Canada, Germany, France, and Japan. Thirty-minute online interviews conducted between April and November 2015 included AF patients with recent stroke, and newly diagnosed AF and established AF, both without recent stroke. Results  U.S. patients and those with recent stroke perceived AF as more serious (54.0 and 55.2%, respectively) and were more concerned about stroke (50.0 and 68.0%, respectively). Japanese patients were more likely to perceive AF as not serious (41.0%), but 50.4% were frequently concerned about stroke. Patients in the United States, Canada, and Germany and those without recent stroke preferred to be involved in OAC treatment decisions (either shared decision making or patient's choice), while French and Japanese patients and those with recent stroke preferred their doctor to choose. For all country groups, stroke prevention was the most important factor when choosing OAC. Conclusion  In this international cohort of AF patients, country-specific differences exist in patients' perceptions of AF, concerns about stroke, and preference for involvement in OAC treatment decisions; recent experience of stroke significantly influenced patients' values and preferences regarding AF and treatment. Stroke prevention was rated as the most important factor when choosing OAC treatment.

Health Literacy and Cardiovascular Disease: Fundamental Relevance to Primary and Secondary Prevention: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

Health literacy is the degree to which individuals are able to access and process basic health information and services and thereby participate in health-related decisions. Limited health literacy is highly prevalent in the United States and is strongly associated with patient morbidity, mortality, healthcare use, and costs. The objectives of this American Heart Association scientific statement are (1) to summarize the relevance of health literacy to cardiovascular health; (2) to present the adverse associations of health literacy with cardiovascular risk factors, conditions, and treatments; (3) to suggest strategies that address barriers imposed by limited health literacy on the management and prevention of cardiovascular disease; (4) to demonstrate the contributions of health literacy to health disparities, given its association with social determinants of health; and (5) to propose future directions for how health literacy can be integrated into the American Heart Association's mandate to advance cardiovascular treatment and research, thereby improving patient care and public health. Inadequate health literacy is a barrier to the American Heart Association meeting its 2020 Impact Goals, and this statement articulates the rationale to anticipate and address the adverse cardiovascular effects associated with health literacy.

Oral Anticoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation: Development and Evaluation of a Mobile Health Application to Support Shared Decision-Making

Background

Atrial fibrillation is responsible for one in four strokes, which may be prevented by oral anticoagulation, an underused therapy around the world. Considering the challenges imposed by this sort of treatment, mobile health support for shared decision-making may improve patients’ knowledge and optimize the decisional process.

Objective

To develop and evaluate a mobile application to support shared decision about thromboembolic prophylaxis in atrial fibrillation.

Methods

We developed an application to be used during the clinical visit, including a video about atrial fibrillation, risk calculators, explanatory graphics and information on the drugs available for treatment. In the pilot phase, 30 patients interacted with the application, which was evaluated qualitatively and by a disease knowledge questionnaire and a decisional conflict scale.

Results

The number of correct answers in the questionnaire about the disease was significantly higher after the interaction with the application (from 4.7 ± 1.8 to 7.2 ± 1.0, p < 0.001). The decisional conflict scale, administered after selecting the therapy with the app support, resulted in an average of 11 ± 16/100 points, indicating a low decisional conflict.

Conclusions

The use of a mobile application during medical visits on anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation improves disease knowledge, enabling a shared decision with low decisional conflict. Further studies are needed to confirm if this finding can be translated into clinical benefit.

European Society of Cardiology smartphone and tablet applications for patients with atrial fibrillation and their health care providers

We are in the midst of a digital revolution in health care, although the application of new and useful technology in routine clinical practice is variable. The Characterizing Atrial fibrillation by Translating its Causes into Health Modifiers in the Elderly (CATCH ME) Consortium, in collaboration with the European Society of Cardiology (ESC), has funded the creation of two applications (apps) in atrial fibrillation (AF) for use in smartphones and tablets. The patient app aims to enhance patient education, improve communication between patients and health care professionals, and encourage active patient involvement in the management of their condition. The health care professional app is designed as an interactive management tool incorporating the new ESC Practice Guidelines on AF and supported by the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA), with the aim of improving best practice approaches for the care of patients with AF. Both stand-alone apps are now freely available for Android and iOS devices though the Google Play, Amazon, and Apple stores. In this article, we outline the rationale for the design and implementation of these apps. Our objective is to demonstrate the value of integrating novel digital technology into clinical practice, with the potential for patient engagement, optimization of pharmacological and interventional therapy in AF, and ultimately to improve patient outcomes.

Granger Causality and Jensen-Shannon Divergence to Determine Dominant Atrial Area in Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is already the most commonly occurring arrhythmia. Catheter pulmonary vein ablation has emerged as a treatment that is able to make the arrhythmia disappear; nevertheless, recurrence to arrhythmia is very frequent. In this study, it is proposed to perform an analysis of the electrical signals recorded from bipolar catheters at three locations, pulmonary veins and the right and left atria, before to and during the ablation procedure. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to reduce data dimension and Granger causality and divergence techniques were applied to analyse connectivity along the atria, in three main regions: pulmonary veins, left atrium (LA) and right atrium (RA). The results showed that, before the procedure, patients with recurrence in the arrhythmia had greater connectivity between atrial areas. Moreover, during the ablation procedure, in patients with recurrence in the arrhythmial both atria were more connected than in patients that maintained sinus rhythms. These results can be helpful for procedures designing to end AF.

The future of atrial fibrillation management: integrated care and stratified therapy

Atrial fibrillation is one of the major cardiovascular health problems: it is a common, chronic condition, affecting 2-3% of the population in Europe and the USA and requiring 1-3% of health-care expenditure as a result of stroke, sudden death, heart failure, unplanned hospital admissions, and other complications. Early diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, ideally before the first complication occurs, remains a challenge, as shown by patients who are only diagnosed with the condition when admitted to hospital for acute cardiac decompensation or stroke. Once diagnosed, atrial fibrillation requires chronic, multidimensional management in five domains (acute management, treatment of underlying and concomitant cardiovascular conditions, stroke prevention therapy, rate control, and rhythm control). The consistent provision of these treatment options to all patients with atrial fibrillation is difficult, despite recent improvements in organisation of care, knowledge about atrial fibrillation, and treatment options. Integrated care models that provide patient-centred care in, or close to, the patient's community while maintaining access to all specialist treatment options, emerge as the best approach to achieve consistent delivery of these chronic treatments to all patients with atrial fibrillation. Ongoing research efforts will establish when to initiate oral anticoagulation in patients with device-detected atrial high-rate episodes, quantify the prognostic effect of early and comprehensive rhythm control therapy, including atrial fibrillation ablation, and delineate optimum methods to reduce bleeding complications in patients treated with anticoagulation. Additionally, research efforts are needed to define different types of atrial fibrillation on the basis of the main causes of atrial fibrillation to pave the way for the clinical development of stratified atrial fibrillation therapy.

Shared decision making for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background

Nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common ongoing health problem that places patients at risk of stroke. Whether and how a patient addresses this risk depends on each patient’s goals, context, and values. Consequently, leading cardiovascular societies recommend using shared decision making (SDM) to individualize antithrombotic treatment in patients with AF. The aim of this study is to assess the extent to which the Anticoagulation Choice conversation tool promotes high-quality SDM and influences anticoagulation uptake and adherence in patients with AF at risk of strokes.

Methods

This study protocol describes a multicenter, encounter-level, randomized trial to assess the effect of using the Anticoagulation Choice conversation tool in the clinical encounter, compared to usual care. The participating centers include an academic hospital system, a suburban community group practice, and an urban safety net hospital, all in Minnesota, USA. Patients with ongoing nonvalvular AF at risk of strokes (CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥ 1 in men, or ≥ 2 in women) will be eligible for participation. We aim to include 999 patients and their clinicians. The primary outcome is the quality of SDM as perceived by participants, and as assessed by a post-encounter survey that ascertains (a) knowledge transfer, (b) concordance of the decision made, (c) quality of communication, and (d) satisfaction with the decision-making process. Recordings of encounters will be reviewed to assess the extent of patient involvement and how participants use the tool (fidelity). Anticoagulant use, choice of agent, and adherence will be drawn from patients’ medical and pharmacy records. Strokes and bleeding events will be drawn from patient records.

Discussion

This study will provide a valid and precise measure of the effect of the Anticoagulation Choice conversation tool on SDM quality and processes, and on the treatment choices and adherence to therapy among AF patients at risk of stroke.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02905032. Registered on 9 September 2016.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-017-2178-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Availability of patient decision aids for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation is a common irregular heart rhythm that increases patients' risk of stroke. Aspirin, warfarin, direct oral anticoagulants, and an implantable device can reduce this risk. Given the availability of multiple comparable options, this decision depends on patient preferences and is appropriate for the use of decision aids and other efforts to promote shared decision making. The objective of this review was to examine the existence and accessibility of, as well as select outcomes associated with, published, formally evaluated patient decision aids for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

Six databases were searched from inception to March 2016 with a research librarian. Two authors independently reviewed potential articles, selected trials meeting inclusion criteria, and assessed outcome measures. Outcomes included patient knowledge, involvement, choice, and decisional conflict.

RESULTS

The search resulted in 666 articles; most were excluded for not examining stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation and 7 studies were eventually included. Six decision aids displayed combinations of aspirin, warfarin, or no therapy; 1 included a direct oral anticoagulant. Interventions were associated with increased patient knowledge, increased likelihood of making a choice, and low decisional conflict. Use of decision aids in this review was associated with less selection of warfarin. None of the tested decision aids are currently available.

DISCUSSION

Published patient decision aids for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation are not accessible for clinical use. Given the availability of multiple comparable options, there is a need to develop and test new patient decision aids in this context.

Thromboembolic and Major Bleeding Events With Rivaroxaban Versus Warfarin Use in a Real-World Setting

Background: Although randomized trials demonstrate the noninferiority of rivaroxaban compared with warfarin in the context of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF), little is known about how these drugs compare in practice. Objective: To assess the relative effectiveness and safety of rivaroxaban versus warfarin in a large health system and to evaluate this association by time in therapeutic range (TTR). Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study with propensity matching in the Cleveland Clinic Health System. The study included patients initiated on warfarin or rivaroxaban for thromboembolic prevention in nonvalvular AF between January 2012 and July 2016. The main outcomes were thromboembolic events and major bleeds. Analyses were stratified by warfarin patients’ TTR. Results: The cohort consisted of 472 propensity-matched pairs. The mean age was 73.6 years (SD = 11.7), and the mean CHADS2 score was 1.8. The median TTR for warfarin patients was 64%. In the propensity-matched analysis, there was no significant difference in thromboembolic or major bleeding events between groups. Among warfarin patients with a TTR <64% and their matched rivaroxaban pairs, there was also no significant difference in thromboembolic or major bleeding events. Conclusions: Under real-world conditions, warfarin and rivaroxaban were associated with similar safety and effectiveness, even among those with suboptimal therapeutic control. Individualized decision making, taking into account the nontherapeutic tradeoffs associated with these medications (eg, monitoring, half-life, cost) is warranted.

Shared decision-making in stroke: an evolving approach to improved patient care

Shared decision-making (SDM) occurs when patients, families and clinicians consider patients' values and preferences alongside the best medical evidence and partner to make the best decision for a given patient in a specific scenario. SDM is increasingly promoted within Western contexts and is also being explored outside such settings, including in China. SDM and tools to promote SDM can improve patients' knowledge/understanding, participation in the decision-making process, satisfaction and trust in the healthcare team. SDM has also proposed long-term benefits to patients, clinicians, organisations and healthcare systems. To successfully perform SDM, clinicians must know their patients' values and goals and the evidence underlying different diagnostic and treatment options. This is relevant for decisions throughout stroke care, from thrombolysis to goals of care, diagnostic assessments, rehabilitation strategies, and secondary stroke prevention. Various physician, patient, family, cultural and system barriers to SDM exist. Strategies to overcome these barriers and facilitate SDM include clinician motivation, patient participation, adequate time and tools to support the process, such as decision aids. Although research about SDM in stroke care is lacking, decision aids are available for select decisions, such as anticoagulation for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation. Future research is needed regarding both cultural aspects of successful SDM and application of SDM to stroke-specific contexts.

Patients' experiences of atrial fibrillation and non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs), and their educational needs: A qualitative study

PURPOSE

Qualitative research on atrial fibrillation (AF) patient's experiences and perceptions of taking the non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) for stroke prevention is limited. This study explores patients' experiences of dabigatran and their recommendations for development of educational materials.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Semi-structured individual interviews with 8 warfarin-naive and 8 warfarin-experienced AF patients, using qualitative deductive thematic analysis.

RESULTS

The four main overarching themes included: understanding the diagnosis; reaching a treatment decision; challenges of living with OAC; and patient perceptions of treatment. Patients discussed their shock of diagnosis, and seeking information and support at that time. Narratives suggest patients preferred to be led by the doctor when making treatment decisions, and would often compare dabigatran to warfarin. Patients reported side-effects and challenges with both treatment options, and discussed their beliefs surrounding medications, including misconceptions. In addition to the original framework, two further themes were added: challenges of living with AF, and patient recommendations. Generally patients found AF symptoms distressing, which impacted their quality of life. Patient recommendations included the content and delivery of educational materials and development of tools to help with their understanding of AF and anticoagulation, as well as treatment adherence and anxiety surrounding symptoms and side effects.

CONCLUSION

Patient recommendations emphasised the need for interventions to relieve anxiety surrounding the diagnosis and possible treatment side effects. Tailored 'disease-specific' support is essential to ensure efficacious treatment. This qualitative study highlights the need for patient involvement in the development of educational materials and resources for patients commencing treatment with NOACs.

Decision-making interventions to stop the global atrial fibrillation-related stroke tsunami

Atrial fibrillation affects 33.5 million people worldwide and its prevalence is expected to double by 2050 because of the aging population. Atrial fibrillation confers a 5-fold higher risk of ischemic stroke compared to sinus rhythm. We present our view of the role of shared medical decision-making to combat global underutilization of oral anticoagulation for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation patients. Oral anticoagulation underuse is widespread as it is present within atrial fibrillation patients of all risk strata and in countries across all income levels. Reasons for oral anticoagulation underuse include but are probably not limited to poor risk stratification, over-interpretation of contraindications, and discordance between physician prescription preferences and actual administration. By comparing a catastrophic event to the consequences of atrial fibrillation related strokes, it may help physicians and patients understand the negative outcomes associated with oral anticoagulation under-utilization and the magnitude to which oral anticoagulations neutralize atrial fibrillation burden.

Use of electronic healthcare records to identify complex patients with atrial fibrillation for targeted intervention

BACKGROUND

Practice guidelines recommend anticoagulation therapy for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who have other risk factors putting them at an elevated risk of stroke. These patients remain undertreated, but, with increasing use of electronic healthcare records (EHRs), it may be possible to identify candidates for treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To test algorithms for identifying AF patients who also have known risk factors for stroke and major bleeding using EHR data.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We evaluated the performance of algorithms using EHR data from the Partners Healthcare System at identifying AF patients and 16 additional conditions that are risk factors in the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED risk scores for stroke and major bleeding. Algorithms were based on information contained in problem lists, billing codes, laboratory data, prescription data, vital status, and clinical notes. The performance of candidate algorithms in 1000 bootstrap resamples was compared to a gold standard of manual chart review by experienced resident physicians.

RESULTS

: Physicians reviewed 480 patient charts. For 11 conditions, the median positive predictive value (PPV) of the EHR-derived algorithms was greater than 0.90. Although the PPV for some risk factors was poor, the median PPV for identifying patients with a CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score ≥2 or a HAS-BLED score ≥3 was 1.00 and 0.92, respectively.

DISCUSSION

We developed and tested a set of algorithms to identify AF patients and known risk factors for stroke and major bleeding using EHR data. Algorithms such as these can be built into EHR systems to facilitate informed decision making and help shift population health management efforts towards patients with the greatest need.

Health Literacy and Atrial Fibrillation: Relevance and Future Directions for Patient-centred Care

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia with significant clinical outcomes, and is associated with high medical and social costs. AF is complicated for patients because of its specialised terminology, long-term adherence, symptom monitoring, referral to specialty care, array of potential interventions and potential for adversity. Health literacy is a frequently under-recognised, yet fundamental, component towards successful care in AF. Health literacy is defined as the capacity to obtain, process and understand health information, and has had markedly limited study in AF. However, health literacy could contribute to how patients interpret symptoms, navigate care, and participate in treatment evaluation and decision-making. This review aims to summarise the clinical importance and essential relevance of health literacy in AF. We focus here on central aspects of AF care that are most related to self-care, including understanding the symptoms of AF, shared decision-making, adherence and anticoagulation for stroke prevention. We discuss opportunities to enhance AF care based on findings from the literature on health literacy, and identify important gaps. Our overall objective is to articulate the importance and relevance of integrating health literacy in the care of individuals with AF.

Antithrombotic Approaches in Acute Coronary Syndromes: Optimizing Benefit vs Bleeding Risks

It is estimated that in the United States, each year, approximately 620,000 persons will experience an acute coronary syndrome and approximately 70% of these will have non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome. Cardiovascular disease still accounts for 1 of every 3 deaths in the United States, and there is an urgent need to improve the prognosis of patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome. Cardiovascular mortality and ischemic complications are common after acute coronary syndrome, and the advent of newer antithrombotic therapies has reduced ischemic complications, but at the expense of greater bleeding. The new antithrombotic agents also raise the challenge of choosing between multiple potential therapeutic combinations to minimize recurrent ischemia without a concomitant increase in bleeding, a decision that often varies according to an individual patient's relative propensity for ischemia versus hemorrhage. In this review, we will synthesize the available information to arm health care providers with the contemporary knowledge on antithrombotic therapy and individualize treatment decisions.

Use of decision aids for shared decision making in venous thromboembolism: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Optimal care of patients with venous thromboembolism requires the input of patient preferences into clinical decision-making. However, the availability and impact of decision aids to facilitate shared decision making in care of venous thromboembolism is not well known.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the availability, clinical impact and outcomes associated with the use of decision aids in patients with or at risk for venous thromboembolism.

PATIENTS/METHODS

A systematic review of the literature was performed exploring the use of decision aids in patients with venous thromboembolism. Criteria for primary inclusion required use of patient values clarification in the decision aid. A secondary review without the requirement of a patient values clarification was performed to be more inclusive. The data was summarized such that knowledge gaps and opportunities for enquiry were identified.

RESULTS

The primary review identified one study that explored the decision to extend anticoagulation in patients with a recent venous thromboembolism beyond the stipulated 3-month duration. The secondary review identified an additional study exploring the decision to undergo computer tomography testing in patients at low risk for pulmonary embolism in an emergency department setting. Both studies were of modest quality given a lack of control group for comparison analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite numerous calls to increase use of shared decision-making, a paucity of data exists to help patients engage in the treatment decisions for venous thromboembolism. Future studies of additional VTE clinical decisions with longer-term clinical outcomes appear necessary.

Contraindications to anticoagulation therapy and eligibility for novel anticoagulants in older patients with atrial fibrillation

AIMS

Oral anticoagulation therapy prevents stroke and improves survival in patients with atrial fibrillation, but the therapy is underutilized. We sought to identify the prevalence of contraindications for oral anticoagulation and the proportion of patients potentially eligible for different agents.

METHODS

We identified patients with nonacute atrial fibrillation in a nationally representative 5% sample of 2009 Medicare data. We divided the population into patients ineligible for any oral anticoagulant, patients eligible for warfarin only, and patients eligible for any anticoagulant. We compared patient characteristics and the use of anticoagulation among the subgroups.

RESULTS

Among 86,671 patients with atrial fibrillation, 1872 (2.2%) were ineligible for anticoagulation because of an absolute contraindication, most frequently a history of intracranial hemorrhage (60%). Patients ineligible for any anticoagulant were the same age as the overall group (mean age, 80.5 vs. 80.4 years). However, they had higher rates of dementia (19% vs. 8.6%) and heart failure (59% vs. 43%) and higher mean CHADS2 scores (3.8 vs. 2.8). Of the remaining 84,799 patients eligible for anticoagulation, 7146 (8.4%) were eligible for warfarin only (most commonly because of mechanical heart valves [66%] and end-stage renal disease [12%]). Sixty-five percent of patients eligible for anticoagulation received warfarin, and the proportion was similar for patients with a relatively high risk of bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

Older adults with atrial fibrillation rarely have absolute contraindications to oral anticoagulation therapy. Among patients without contraindications, most appeared to be eligible for any anticoagulant, and relatively high-risk features appeared not to influence warfarin use.

Development of a shared decision-making tool to assist patients and clinicians with decisions on oral anticoagulant treatment for atrial fibrillation

OBJECTIVE

Decision aids (DAs) are increasingly used to operationalize shared decision-making (SDM) but their development is not often described. Decisions about oral anticoagulants (OACs) for atrial fibrillation (AF) involve a trade-off between lowering stroke risk and increasing OAC-associated bleeding risk, and consideration of how treatment affects lifestyle. The benefits and risks of OACs hinge upon a patient's risk factors for stroke and bleeding and how they value these outcomes. We present the development of a DA about AF that estimates patients' risks for stroke and bleeding and assesses their preferences for outcomes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Based on a literature review and expert discussions, we identified stroke and major bleeding risk prediction models and embedded them into risk assessment modules. We identified the most important factors in choosing OAC treatment (warfarin used as the default reference OAC) through focus group discussions with AF patients who had used warfarin and clinician interviews. We then designed preference assessment and introductory modules accordingly. We integrated these modules into a prototype AF SDM tool and evaluated its usability through interviews.

RESULTS

Our tool included four modules: (1) introduction to AF and OAC treatment risks and benefits; (2) stroke risk assessment; (3) bleeding risk assessment; and (4) preference assessment. Interactive risk calculators estimated patient-specific stroke and bleeding risks; graphics were developed to communicate these risks. After cognitive interviews, the content was improved. The final AF tool calculates patient-specific risks and benefits of OAC treatment and couples these estimates with patient preferences to improve clinical decision-making.

CONCLUSIONS

The AF SDM tool may help patients choose whether OAC treatment is best for them and represents a patient-centered, integrative approach to educate patients on the benefits and risks of OAC treatment. Future research is needed to evaluate this tool in a real-world setting. The development process presented can be applied to similar SDM tools.

Innovative designs of point-of-care comparative effectiveness trials

One of the provisions of the health care reform legislation in 2010 was for funding pragmatic clinical trials or large observational studies for comparing the effectiveness of different approved medical treatments, involving broadly representative patient populations. After reviewing pragmatic clinical trials and the issues and challenges that have made them just a small fraction of comparative effectiveness research (CER), we focus on a recent development that uses point-of-care (POC) clinical trials to address the issue of "knowledge-action gap" in pragmatic CER trials. We give illustrative examples of POC-CER trials and describe a trial that we are currently planning to compare the effectiveness of newly approved oral anticoagulants. We also develop novel stage-wise designs of information-rich POC-CER trials under competitive budget constraints, by using recent advances in adaptive designs and other statistical methodologies.

Decision aids for localized prostate cancer treatment choice: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Patients who are diagnosed with localized prostate cancer need to make critical treatment decisions that are sensitive to their values and preferences. The role of decision aids in facilitating these decisions is unknown. The authors conducted a systematic review of randomized trials of decision aids for localized prostate cancer. Teams of 2 reviewers independently identified, selected, and abstracted data from 14 eligible trials (n = 3377 men), of which 10 were conducted in North America. Of these, 11 trials compared decision aids with usual care, and 3 trials compared decision aids with other decision aids. Two trials suggested a modest positive impact on decisional regret. Results across studies varied widely for decisional conflict (4 studies), satisfaction with decision (2 studies), and knowledge (2 studies). No impact on treatment choices was observed (6 studies). In conclusion, scant evidence at high risk of bias suggests the variable impact of existing decision aids on a limited set of decisional processes and outcomes. Because current decision aids provide information but do not directly facilitate shared decision making, subsequent efforts would benefit from user-centered design of decision aids that promote shared decision making.

The AFFORD clinical decision aid to identify emergency department patients with atrial fibrillation at low risk for 30-day adverse events

There is wide variation in the management of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in the emergency department (ED). We aimed to derive and internally validate the first prospective, ED-based clinical decision aid to identify patients with AF at low risk for 30-day adverse events. We performed a prospective cohort study at a university-affiliated tertiary-care ED. Patients were enrolled from June 9, 2010, to February 28, 2013, and followed for 30 days. We enrolled a convenience sample of patients in ED presenting with symptomatic AF. Candidate predictors were based on ED data available in the first 2 hours. The decision aid was derived using model approximation (preconditioning) followed by strong bootstrap internal validation. We used an ordinal outcome hierarchy defined as the incidence of the most severe adverse event within 30 days of the ED evaluation. Of 497 patients enrolled, stroke and AF-related death occurred in 13 (3%) and 4 (<1%) patients, respectively. The decision aid included the following: age, triage vitals (systolic blood pressure, temperature, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, supplemental oxygen requirement), medical history (heart failure, home sotalol use, previous percutaneous coronary intervention, electrical cardioversion, cardiac ablation, frequency of AF symptoms), and ED data (2 hours heart rate, chest radiograph results, hemoglobin, creatinine, and brain natriuretic peptide). The decision aid's c-statistic in predicting any 30-day adverse event was 0.7 (95% confidence interval 0.65, 0.76). In conclusion, in patients with AF in the ED, Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter Outcome Risk Determination provides the first evidence-based decision aid for identifying patients who are at low risk for 30-day adverse events and candidates for safe discharge.

Validation of the Risk Estimator Decision Aid for Atrial Fibrillation (RED-AF) for predicting 30-day adverse events in emergency department patients with atrial fibrillation

STUDY OBJECTIVE

In the United States, nearly 70% of emergency department (ED) visits for atrial fibrillation result in hospitalization. The incidence of serious 30-day adverse events after an ED evaluation for atrial fibrillation remains low. This study's goal was to prospectively validate our previously reported Risk Estimator Decision Aid for Atrial Fibrillation (RED-AF) model for estimating a patient's risk of experiencing a 30-day adverse event.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study, which enrolled a convenience sample of ED patients presenting with atrial fibrillation. RED-AF, previously derived from a retrospective cohort of 832 patients, assigns points according to age, sex, coexisting disease (eg, heart failure, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), smoking, home medications (eg, β-blocker, diuretic), physical examination findings (eg, dyspnea, palpitations, peripheral edema), and adequacy of ED ventricular rate control. Primary outcome was occurrence of greater than or equal to 1 atrial fibrillation-related adverse outcome (ED visits, rehospitalization, cardiovascular complications, death) within 30 days. We identified a clinically relevant threshold and measured RED-AF's performance in this prospective cohort, assessing its calibration, discrimination, and diagnostic accuracy.

RESULTS

The study enrolled 497 patients between June 2010 and February 2013. Of these, 120 (24%) had greater than or equal to 1 adverse event within 30 days. A RED-AF score of 87 was identified as an optimal threshold, resulting in sensitivity and specificity of 96% (95% confidence interval [CI] 91% to 98%) and 19% (95% CI 15% to 23%), respectively. Positive and negative predictive values were 27% (95% CI 23% to 32%) and 93% (95% CI 85% to 97%), respectively. The c statistic for RED-AF was 0.65 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.71).

CONCLUSION

In this separate validation cohort, RED-AF performed moderately well and similar to the original derivation cohort for identifying the risk of short-term atrial fibrillation-related adverse events in ED patients receiving a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation.

Gastrointestinal bleeding in cardiac patients: epidemiology and evolving clinical paradigms

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Cardiac patients are a fast emerging population vulnerable to gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) due to their use of antithrombotic medications. This review will quantify the GIB risk of cardiac patients prescribed antithrombotic medications, summarize risk-management strategies and highlight knowledge gaps.

RECENT FINDINGS

As the American population ages, it is anticipated that there will be an increased incidence of upper and lower GIB related to age-specific disease, higher burden of comorbidity and increased use of anticoagulants, antiplatelets and aspirin to treat cardiac disease. New evidence has highlighted the significant and clinically relevant GIB risk. The increased use of aggressive antiplatelet and anticoagulant therapies will alter our current understanding of the epidemiology of GIB.

SUMMARY

The magnitude of gastrointestinal risk in this vulnerable patient population is still relatively unexplored due to a paucity of literature. This review will highlight changing GIB trends and explore current knowledge regarding GIB risk in cardiac patients. An emphasis on a multidisciplinary approach to the care of these patients will be supported, which involves active patient participation and collaboration between cardiologists and gastroenterologists. Finally, risk-minimization strategies will be suggested and knowledge gaps will be identified.