Validation of two predictive models for survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension

Dart to the target: an alternative bull's eye parametric display for European Society of Cardiology / European Respiratory Society goal-orientated risk reduction strategy in pulmonary arterial hypertension

Despite the significant mortality and mobidity benefits being obtained with the targeted therapies in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), mid- to long-term survival of patients with this disease has remained unsatisfactory. For earlier and reliable risk stratification in PAH and tailoring the dynamic management strategies, various risk assessment models have been developed. Currently available risk reduction strategy recommended by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC)/European Respiratory Society (ERS) 2015 Pulmonary Hypertension Guidelines has been utilized in three recent registries. In this review, we evaluated the risk prediction models and management algorithms in this setting and propose an alternative parametric display, a bull's eye, dart table scheme for ESC/ERS goal-orientated risk reduction strategy in patients with PAH.

Is hyponatremia associated with mortality in pulmonary arterial hypertension?

Hyponatremia is associated with poor prognosis in left heart failure and liver disease. Its prognostic role in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is not well defined. We investigated the association between hyponatremia and one-year mortality in two large cohorts of PAH. This study is a secondary analysis evaluating the association between hyponatremia and one-year mortality in patients treated with subcutaneous treprostinil (cohort 1). The results are validated using a PAH registry at a tertiary referral center (cohort 2). Eight-hundred and twenty patients were enrolled in cohort 1 (mean age = 47 ± 14 years) and 791 in cohort 2 (mean age = 55 ± 15 years). Sodium level is negatively correlated with mean right atrial pressure (r = -0.09, P = 0.018; r = -0.089, P = 0.015 in cohorts 1 and 2, respectively). In unadjusted analyses of cohort 1, the sodium level (as a continuous variable) is associated with one-year mortality (hazard ratio = 0.94; P = 0.035). Hyponatremia loses its significance (as a continuous variable and when dichotomized at ≤ 137 mmol/L; P = 0.12) when adjusted for functional class (FC), which is identified as the variable whose presence turns the effect of sodium level into non-significant. Secondary analyses using a cut-off value of < 135 mmol/L showed similar results. These results are validated in cohort 2. Although the sample size for patients with sodium < 130 mmol/L is small (n = 31), severe hyponatremia is associated with higher overall mortality (47% versus 23%; P = 0.01), even when adjusting for age, FC, and baseline 6-min walk distance ( P < 0.001). Although baseline hyponatremia is associated with one-year mortality, it loses its significance when adjusted for FC.

REVEAL risk score in patients with chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension receiving riociguat

BACKGROUND

The REVEAL risk score (RRS) was developed to predict survival in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), based on multiple patient characteristics. Herein we calculated RRS for patients in the randomized CHEST-1 study and open-label CHEST-2 extension study of riociguat in inoperable or persistent/recurrent chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). We investigated the effect of riociguat vs placebo on RRS in the CHEST-1 study, and the relationship between RRS and long-term outcomes in the CHEST-2 study.

METHODS

RRS was calculated post hoc for baseline and Week 16 of CHEST-1 and Week 12 of CHEST-2, based on 9 evaluable elements. Patients were grouped into risk strata by RRS. Relationships between RRS and both survival and clinical worsening-free survival were examined by Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards analyses.

RESULTS

Overall, 237 patients completed CHEST-1 and entered CHEST-2. In CHEST-1, riociguat significantly improved RRS (p < 0.0001) and risk stratum (p < 0.001) vs placebo from baseline to Week 16. RRS at baseline, and at Week 16, and change in RRS during CHEST-1 were significantly associated with survival (hazard ratios for a 1-point reduction in RRS: 0.702, 0.692, and 0.682, respectively) and clinical worsening-free survival (hazard ratios: 0.697, 0.719, and 0.754, respectively) over 2 years in CHEST-2.

CONCLUSIONS

Riociguat improved RRS in patients with inoperable and persistent/recurrent CTEPH. RRS at baseline and Week 16, and change in RRS from baseline, predicted survival and clinical worsening-free survival. This analysis of RRS in patients with inoperable or persistent/recurrent CTEPH suggests utility for the RRS in indications beyond PAH.

Risk Assessment in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Patients: The Long and Short of it

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a chronic and rapidly progressive disease that is characterized by extensive narrowing of the pulmonary vasculature, leading to increases in pulmonary vascular resistance, subsequent right ventricular dysfunction, and eventual death. There are currently multiple approved drugs—developed as single or combination therapies in the last few years—that have improved outcome and functionality in PAH. However, despite improvement in short-term survival with these new effective therapies, PAH remains an incurable disease with a median survival of 7 years (Figure 1).1 This chronic disease state may be characterized by morbid events such as hospitalizations that herald rapid disease progression and account for a significant disease burden (Figure 2).23 Physician ability to predict PAH disease progression is critical for determining optimal care of patients. Accurate risk assessment allows clinicians to determine the patient's prognosis, identify treatment goals, and monitor disease progression and the patient's response to treatment. Risk assessment for PAH patients should include a range of clinical, hemodynamic, and exercise parameters, performed in a serial fashion over the treatment course. Patient risk stratification can also help physicians better allocate treatment resources in settings where they are scarce. If widely adopted, risk prediction can enhance the consistency of treatment approaches across PAH practitioners and improve the timeliness of referral for lung transplantation. Hence, along with advancing PAH treatment options, comprehensive risk prediction is essential to make individualized treatment decisions in the current treatment era.

Several tools are currently available for assessing risk in PAH (Figure 3). These include the 2015 European Society of Cardiology/European Respiratory Society pulmonary hypertension guidelines' risk variables,4 the French registry equation,5 the National Institutes of Health risk equation,6 or a risk score such as the one derived from the Registry to Evaluate Early And Long-term PAH Disease Management.1 These registries and evaluations of clinical trial sets have provided important insights into the importance of both modifiable (eg, 6-minute walk distance, functional class, brain natriuretic peptide, and nonmodifiable (eg, age, gender, PAH etiology) risk factors that predict survival. The following review explores commonly cited risk factors, both modifiable and nonmodifiable, and their implications for patient outcomes.

Pulmonary arterial hypertension: tailoring treatment to risk in the current era

Recent advances in the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) have led to improved patient outcomes. Multiple PAH therapies are now available and optimising the use of these drugs in clinical practice is vital. In this review, we discuss the management of PAH patients in the context of current treatment guidelines and supporting clinical evidence. In clinical practice, considerable emphasis is placed on the importance of making treatment decisions guided by each patient's risk status, which should be assessed using multiple prognostic parameters. As PAH is a progressive disease, regular assessments are essential to ensure that any change in risk is detected in a timely manner and treatment is adjusted accordingly. With the availability of therapies that target three different pathogenic pathways, combination therapy is now the standard of care. For most patients, this involves dual combination therapy with agents targeting the endothelin and nitric oxide pathways. Therapies targeting the prostacyclin pathway should be added for patients receiving dual combination therapy who do not achieve a low-risk status. There is also a need for a holistic approach to treatment beyond pharmacological therapies. Implementation of all these approaches will ensure that PAH patients receive maximal benefit from currently available therapies.

Optimal PAH treatment requires frequent multiparameter risk assessment and early initiation of combination therapyhttp://ow.ly/IA6t30fPceT

Magnetic Resonance Imaging in the Prognostic Evaluation of Patients with Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

RATIONALE

Prognostication is important when counseling patients and defining treatment strategies in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH).

OBJECTIVES

To determine the value of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) metrics for prediction of mortality in PAH.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with PAH undergoing MRI were identified from the ASPIRE (Assessing the Spectrum of Pulmonary Hypertension Identified at a Referral Centre) pulmonary hypertension registry.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

During the follow-up period of 42 (range, 17-142) months 576 patients were studied and 221 (38%) died. A derivation cohort (n = 288; 115 deaths) and validation cohort (n = 288; 106 deaths) were identified. We used multivariate Cox regression and found two independent MRI predictors of death (P < 0.01): right ventricular end-systolic volume index adjusted for age and sex, and the relative area change of the pulmonary artery. A model of MRI and clinical data constructed from the derivation cohort predicted mortality in the validation cohort at 1 year (sensitivity, 70 [95% confidence interval (CI), 53-83]; specificity, 62 [95% CI, 62-68]; positive predictive value [PPV], 24 [95% CI, 16-32]; negative predictive value [NPV], 92 [95% CI, 87-96]) and at 3 years (sensitivity, 77 [95% CI, 67-85]; specificity, 73 [95% CI, 66-85]; PPV, 56 [95% CI, 47-65]; and NPV, 87 [95% CI, 81-92]). The model was more accurate in patients with idiopathic PAH at 3 years (sensitivity, 89 [95% CI, 65-84]; specificity, 76 [95% CI, 65-84]; PPV, 60 [95% CI, 46-74]; and NPV, 94 [95% CI, 85-98]).

CONCLUSIONS

MRI measurements reflecting right ventricular structure and stiffness of the proximal pulmonary vasculature are independent predictors of outcome in PAH. In combination with clinical data MRI has moderate prognostic accuracy in the evaluation of patients with PAH.

Risk assessment in pulmonary arterial hypertension

Regular patient assessment is essential for the management of chronic diseases, such as pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Comprehensive patient assessment and risk stratification in PAH are important to guide treatment decisions and to monitor disease progression as well as patients' response to treatment. Approaches for assessing risk in PAH patients include the use of risk variables, as recommended in the 2015 European Society of Cardiology (ESC)/European Respiratory Society (ERS) pulmonary hypertension (PH) guidelines, and the application of risk equations and scores, such as the French registry risk equation and the REVEAL registry risk score. Risk stratification and risk scores are both useful predictors of survival on a population basis, and provide an estimate for individual patients' risk. The 2015 ESC/ERS PH guidelines recommend regular assessment of multiple variables at an expert centre. The respective merits and limitations of different risk assessment methods in PAH are discussed in this article, as well as some considerations that can be taken into account in the future development of risk assessment tools.

Regular risk assessment with multiple parameters evaluates PAH disease progression and treatment responsehttp://ow.ly/Nq0I305kgpU

Pediatric pulmonary hypertension: diagnosis and management

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The article is intended to provide an overview of the most current modalities for the diagnosis and management of pulmonary hypertension in the pediatric population.

RECENT FINDINGS

The WHO has recently updated the classification for pulmonary hypertension to include an expanded range of pediatric disease cohorts. We continue to gain knowledge of traditional pulmonary hypertension therapies (phosphodiesterase inhibitors, endothelin-receptor antagonists, and prostanoids) and remain optimistic that new therapeutic modalities [cyclic guanosine monophosphate (cGMP) stimulators, oral prostacyclins, and gene therapy] will lead to improved outcomes in pediatric patients.

SUMMARY

Pediatric pulmonary hypertension is a heterogeneous disorder that has the potential to improve in some cases as children grow throughout childhood. Utilization of dedicated multidisciplinary teams of medical providers is necessary to deliver the highest level of medical care to this complex patient population. Ongoing development of enhanced screening protocols, novel disease-specific therapeutic targets, and comprehensive registries will hopefully lead to improved morbidity and mortality in the future.

Plasma 12- and 15-hydroxyeicosanoids are predictors of survival in pulmonary arterial hypertension

This study aimed to characterize alterations in select eicosanoids in experimental and human pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and to assess their potential utility as predictors of outcome. Using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, we performed targeted lipidomic analyses of the lungs and right ventricles (RVs) of chronically hypoxic rats and plasma of consecutive PAH patients and healthy controls. In rat lungs, chronic hypoxia was associated with significantly decreased lung prostacyclin (PGI2)/thromboxane B2 (TXB2) ratio and elevated lung 8-hydroxyeicosanoid (HETE) acid concentrations. RV eicosanoids did not exhibit any changes with chronic hypoxia. PAH treatment-naïve patients had significantly increased plasma concentrations of TXB2 and 5-, 8-, 12-, and 15-HETE. The PGI2/TXB2 ratio was lower in PAH patients than in controls, especially in the treatment-naïve cohort (median: 2.1, 0.3, and 1.3 in controls, treatment-naïve, and treated patients, respectively, P = 0.001). Survival was significantly worse in PAH patients with 12-HETEhigh (≥57 pg/mL) and 15-HETEhigh (≥256 pg/mL) in unadjusted and adjusted analyses (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.8 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-7.3], P = 0.04 and HR: 4.3 [95% CI: 1.6-11.8], P = 0.004, respectively; adjustment was performed with the REVEAL [Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management] risk score). We demonstrate significant alterations in eicosanoid pathways in experimental and human PAH. We found that 12- and 15-HETE were independent predictors of survival in human PAH, even after adjusting for the REVEAL score, suggesting their potential role as novel biomarkers.

Connective tissue disease-related pulmonary arterial hypertension

Over the past two decades, there have been several advances in the assessment and management of connective tissue disease-related pulmonary arterial hypertension (CTD-PAH) that improved outcomes of the treatment of this lethal disease, and this will be the focus of this study. Systemic sclerosis is the leading cause of CTD-PAH, followed by systemic lupus erythematosus, mixed connective tissue disease, idiopathic inflammatory myositis, rheumatoid arthritis, and Sjogren's syndrome. Clinical registries have been invaluable in informing about the burden of disease, risk and prognostic factors, and temporal trends with respect to treatment and outcome in CTD-PAH. The major advances have centered on improved disease classification and diagnostic criteria, screening and early diagnosis, the emergence of evidence-based therapies including combination goal-orientated treatment strategies, and the establishment of centers with expertise in PAH.

Predictors of long-term outcomes in patients treated with riociguat for pulmonary arterial hypertension: data from the PATENT-2 open-label, randomised, long-term extension trial

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary arterial hypertension is a chronic disease associated with poor long-term outcomes. Identifying predictors of long-term outcome in pulmonary arterial hypertension is important to assess disease severity and guide treatment. We investigate associations between efficacy parameters and long-term outcomes in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension receiving riociguat in the PATENT-2 study. We also present safety and efficacy data from the final data cutoff of PATENT-2, where most patients had received at least 2 years of riociguat treatment.

METHODS

Eligible patients from the PATENT-1 study entered the PATENT-2 open-label extension, which will continue until all patients transition to the commercial drug. All patients received riociguat individually adjusted to a maximum dose of 2·5 mg three times a day. The primary endpoint was safety and tolerability, assessed with recording adverse events, serious adverse events, discontinuations, and deaths; exploratory assessments included 6-min walking distance (6MWD), WHO functional class, N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)concentrations, Borg dyspnoea score, health-related quality of life (EQ-5D score), survival, and clinical worsening-free survival. Association between efficacy parameters and long-term outcomes was assessed using Kaplan-Meier analyses and a Cox proportional-hazards regression model. PATENT-2 is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00863681.

FINDINGS

396 patients entered PATENT-2, of whom 197 patients were receiving riociguat monotherapy and 199 were receiving riociguat in combination with endothelin receptor antagonists or prostanoids, or both. A significant association was noted between 6MWD, NT-proBNP concentration, and WHO functional class and overall survival at baseline (p=0·0006, 0·0225, and 0·0191, respectively), and at follow-up (p=0·021, 0·0056, and 0·0048, respectively). Riociguat was well tolerated in PATENT-2. Serious adverse events were recorded in 238 (60%) of the total population, and 45 (11%) patients discontinued treatment because of an adverse event. Improvements in 6MWD, WHO functional class, and NT-proBNP concentrations were maintained after 2 years of treatment.

INTERPRETATION

These results support the long-term use of riociguat in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension, and emphasise the prognostic value of 6MWD, WHO functional class, and NT-proBNP concentrations.

FUNDING

Bayer Pharma AG.

Initial dual oral combination therapy in pulmonary arterial hypertension

Treatment for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) has been underpinned by single-agent therapy to which concomitant drugs are added sequentially when pre-defined treatment goals are not met.

This retrospective analysis of real-world clinical data in 97 patients with newly diagnosed PAH (86% in New York Heart Association functional class III−IV) explored initial dual oral combination treatment with bosentan plus sildenafil (n=61), bosentan plus tadalafil (n=17), ambrisentan plus tadalafil (n=11) or ambrisentan plus sildenafil (n=8).

All regimens were associated with significant improvements in functional class, exercise capacity, dyspnoea and haemodynamic indices after 4 months of therapy. Over a median follow-up period of 30 months, 75 (82%) patients were still alive, 53 (71%) of whom received only dual oral combination therapy. Overall survival rates were 97%, 94% and 83% at 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively, and 96%, 94% and 84%, respectively, for the patients with idiopathic PAH, heritable PAH and anorexigen-induced PAH. Expected survival rates calculated from the French equation for the latter were 86%, 75% and 66% at 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively.

Initial combination of oral PAH-targeted medications may offer clinical benefits, especially in PAH patients with severe haemodynamic impairment.

Effect of Warfarin Treatment on Survival of Patients With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) in the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management (REVEAL)

BACKGROUND

Long-term anticoagulation is recommended in idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH). In contrast, limited data support anticoagulation in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) associated with systemic sclerosis (SSc-PAH). We assessed the effect of warfarin anticoagulation on survival in IPAH and SSc-PAH patients enrolled in Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-term PAH Disease Management (REVEAL), a longitudinal registry of group I PAH.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients who initiated warfarin on study (n=187) were matched 1:1 with patients never on warfarin, by enrollment site, etiology, and diagnosis status. Descriptive analyses were conducted to compare warfarin users and nonusers by etiology. Survival analyses with and without risk adjustment were performed from the time of warfarin initiation or a corresponding quarterly update in matched pairs to avoid immortal time bias. Time-varying covariate models were used as sensitivity analyses. Mean warfarin treatment was 1 year; mean international normalized ratios were 1.9 (IPAH) and 2.0 (SSc-PAH). Two-thirds of patients initiating warfarin discontinued treatment before the last study assessment. There was no survival difference with warfarin in IPAH patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.37; P=0.21) or in SSc-PAH patients (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.60; P=0.15) in comparison with matched controls. However, SSc-PAH patients receiving warfarin within the previous year (hazard ratio, 1.57; P=0.031) or any time postbaseline (hazard ratio, 1.49; P=0.046) had increased mortality in comparison with warfarin-naïve patients.

CONCLUSIONS

No significant survival advantage was observed in IPAH patients who started warfarin. In SSc-PAH patients, long-term warfarin was associated with poorer survival than in patients not receiving warfarin, even after adjusting for confounders.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00370214.

Management of pulmonary arterial hypertension

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is common and may result from a number of disorders, including left heart disease, lung disease, and chronic thromboembolic disease. Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is an uncommon disease characterized by progressive remodeling of the distal pulmonary arteries, resulting in elevated pulmonary vascular resistance and, eventually, in right ventricular failure. Over the past decades, knowledge of the basic pathobiology of PAH and its natural history, prognostic indicators, and therapeutic options has exploded. A thorough evaluation of a patient is critical to correctly characterize the PH. Cardiac studies, including echocardiography and right heart catheterization, are key elements in the assessment. Given the multitude of treatment options currently available for PAH, assessment of risk and response to therapy is critical in long-term management. This review also underscores unique situations, including perioperative management, intensive care unit management, and pregnancy, and highlights the importance of collaborative care of the PAH patient through a multidisciplinary approach.