Comparison of mortality prediction models in acute respiratory distress syndrome undergoing extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and development of a novel prediction score: the PREdiction of Survival on ECMO Therapy-Score (PRESET-Score)

A comparison of existing risk prediction models in patients undergoing venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

BACKGROUND

Patients undergoing consideration for venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) require an immediate risk profile assessment in the setting of incomplete information. A number of survival prediction models for critically ill patients and patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery or institution of VA-ECMO support have been designed. We assess the ability of these models to predict outcomes in a cohort of patients undergoing institution of VA-ECMO for cardiogenic shock or cardiac arrest.

METHODS

Fifty-one patients undergoing institution of VA-ECMO support were retrospectively analyzed. APACHE II, SOFA, SAPS II, Encourage, SAVE, and ACEF scores were calculated. Their ability to predict outcomes were assessed.

RESULTS

Indications for ECMO support included postcardiotomy shock (25%), ischemic etiologies (39%), and other etiologies (36%). Pre-ECMO arrest occurred in 73% and 41% of patients underwent cannulation during arrest. Survival to discharge was 39%. Three survival prediction model scores were significantly higher in nonsurvivors to discharge than surivors; the Encourage score (25.4 vs 20; p = .04), the APACHE II score (23.6 vs 19.2; p = .05), and the ACEF score (3.1 vs 1.8; p = .03). In ROC analysis, the ACEF score demonstrated the greatest predictive ability with an AUC of 0.7.

CONCLUSIONS

A variety of survival prediction model scores designed for critically ill ICU and VA-ECMO patients demonstrated modest discriminatory ability in the current cohort of patients. The ACEF score, while not designed to predict survival in critically ill patients, demonstrated the best discriminatory ability. Furthermore, it is the simplest to calculate, an advantage in the emergent setting.

The use of the Ganga Hospital Score to predict the treatment and outcome of open fractures of the tibia

AIMS

Open fractures of the tibia are a heterogeneous group of injuries that can present a number of challenges to the treating surgeon. Consequently, few surgeons can reliably advise patients and relatives about the expected outcomes. The aim of this study was to determine whether these outcomes are predictable by using the Ganga Hospital Score (GHS). This has been shown to be a useful method of scoring open injuries to inform wound management and decide between limb salvage and amputation.

METHODS

We collected data on 182 consecutive patients with a type II, IIIA, or IIIB open fracture of the tibia who presented to our hospital between July and December 2016. For the purposes of the study, the patients were jointly treated by experienced consultant orthopaedic and plastic surgeons who determined the type of treatment. Separately, the study team (SP, HS, AD, JD) independently calculated the GHS and prospectively collected data on six outcomes for each patient. These included time to bony union, number of admissions, length of hospital stay, total length of treatment, final functional score, and number of operations. Spearman's correlation was used to compare GHS with each outcome. Forward stepwise linear regression was used to generate predictive models based on components of the GHS. Five-fold cross-validation was used to prevent models from over-fitting.

RESULTS

The mean follow-up was 11.4 months (3 to 31). The mean time to union was 9.7 months (3 to 21), the mean number of operations was 2.8 (1 to 11), the mean time in hospital was 17.7 days (5 to 84), the mean length of treatment was 92.7 days (5 to 730), the mean number of admissions was 1.7 (1 to 6), and the mean functional score (Lower Extremity Functional Score (LEFS)) was 60.13 (33 to 80). There was a significant correlation between the GHS and each of the outcome measures. A predictive model was generated from which the GHS could be used to predict the various outcome measures.

CONCLUSION

The GHS can be used to predict the outcome of patients who present with an open fracture of the tibia. Our model generates a numerical value for each outcome measure that can be used in clinical practice to inform the treating team and to advise patients. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(1):26-32.

Characteristics and Outcomes of Severe ARDS Patients Receiving ECMO in Southern Thailand

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is a treatment option considered for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) patients who are refractory to conventional treatments. However, treatment with ECMO has not shown significant reduction of mortality which may be due to inappropriate selection criteria. Thus, we aim to evaluate the treatment outcomes of patients treated with ECMO in our center and determine an optimal cutoff level of the Respiratory ECMO Survival Prediction (RESP) score for case selection. This was a retrospective case-control study conducted at Songklanagarind Hospital, Thailand, from January 2014 to August 2018. ECMO patients were randomly matched to a control group of patients with severe ARDS within the same time period. There were 19 cases diagnosed with ARDS and treated with ECMO and 57 controls with ARDS. The patients in both groups had an average APACHE II score of 30.2 (SD = 4.7) and mainly had bacterial pneumonia. The in-hospital mortality was not significantly different between the cases and controls (68.4% vs 63.2%, respectively); however, the ECMO cases had a significantly longer length of intensive care unit stay and cost of hospitalization. Active malignancy, male gender, PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio, and hypotension needing vasopressors were the risk factors for mortality. The RESP score did not discriminate between the survivors and nonsurvivors. Thus, more patient is needed to construct a better selection criterion.

A Simple Scoring System to Predict Survival after Venoarterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation

Patients undergoing consideration for venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA ECMO) require an immediate risk profile assessment in the setting of incomplete or no information. A retrospective cohort study of 100 patients undergoing VA ECMO placement at three institutions was carried out. Variables strongly associated with survival to discharge were used to calculate a risk stratification score. Indications for VA ECMO support included postcardiotomy shock (24%), ischemic etiologies (33%), nonischemic cardiomyopathy (32%), and other etiologies (11%). Pre-VA ECMO arrest occurred in 69%, and 30% of patients underwent cannulation during arrest. Survival to discharge was 38%. Three variables demonstrated a strong trend toward predicting survival to discharge: lactate >10 mmol/L (p = .054), albumin <3 g/dL (p = .062), and platelet count <180 K/uL (p = .064), and these variables were included in a scoring system. The extremes of age and duration of pre-VA ECMO ventilation were associated with a dismal prognosis and were also included. These five variables were used to construct a mortality prediction score. A score of 0 was associated with 10% expected mortality, whereas a score of 4+ was associated with 100% expected mortality. Mortality increased in a stepwise fashion with increasing scores. The expected mortality closely paralleled the observed mortality. A simple scoring system composed of easily collected variables may help predict mortality. However, it is not intended to replace an experienced clinician's judgment, but to enhance it.

[ECMO treatment in acute lung failure : Who profits?]

In intensive care medicine, rapid technical developments that are often beneficial to patients are taking place. On the other hand, there are also voices that generally criticize an increasing "interventionalism". This area of tension includes other important questions regarding usefulness, quality, ethical compliance, scientific evidence, structural capacities and economy. The treatment of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) using extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is an example of these considerations. Although ECMO has rarely been prospectively evaluated according to scientific criteria, it is still used with an increasing tendency, not least since the documented register survival rates in ECMO patients with severe ARDS are 60%. However, the implementation of this therapy means an immense effort. The necessary centralization and certification for ECMO treatment is currently under intensive discussion. Closely related to this are considerations about which criteria represent good quality in patient care. In order to be able to guarantee high quality, a precise indication is the first step. And here indications and contraindications still need to be defined. It has not yet been sufficiently clarified which prognosis factors need to be taken into account. This article summarizes what is known about ECMO prognosis and indication criteria. In conclusion, parameters are identified that should be developed scientifically in the future.

Characterization of patients transported with extracorporeal respiratory and/or cardiovascular support in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Objective

To characterize the transport of severely ill patients with extracorporeal respiratory or cardiovascular support.

Methods

A series of 18 patients in the state of São Paulo, Brazil is described. All patients were consecutively evaluated by a multidisciplinary team at the hospital of origin. The patients were rescued, and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support was provided on site. The patients were then transported to referral hospitals for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support. Data were retrieved from a prospectively collected database.

Results

From 2011 to 2017, 18 patients aged 29 (25 - 31) years with a SAPS 3 of 84 (68 - 92) and main primary diagnosis of leptospirosis and influenza A (H1N1) virus were transported to three referral hospitals in São Paulo. A median distance of 39 (15 - 82) km was traveled on each rescue mission during a period of 360 (308 - 431) min. A median of one (0 - 2) nurse, three (2 - 3) physicians, and one (0 - 1) physical therapist was present per rescue. Seventeen rescues were made by ambulance, and one rescue was made by helicopter. The observed complications were interruption in the energy supply to the pump in two cases (11%) and oxygen saturation < 70% in two cases. Thirteen patients (72%) survived and were discharged from the hospital. Among the nonsurvivors, there were two cases of brain death, two cases of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, and one case of irreversible pulmonary fibrosis.

Conclusions

Transportation with extracorporeal support occurred without serious complications, and the hospital survival rate was high.

[Organ assist devices in the future : Limits and perspectives]

In the last decade, extracorporeal organ assist devices (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [ECMO]) have been increasingly applied to treat the most severe forms of respiratory failure and cardiogenic shock, although the underlying scientific evidence is still limited and the methods carry a high risk of complications despite all technical improvements. The selection of those patients who most benefit from these devices is still a great challenge for intensivists and all other involved disciplines. Besides the severity of the acute organ failure, it is important to thoroughly evaluate etiology and treatment options of the underlying disease, comorbidities, and the functional status of the patients in an interdisciplinary team. This also includes ethical challenges. Because of the complexity of the treatment and the high organizational demands it is reasonable to concentrate ECMO treatments in specifically qualified centers and to promote a comprehensive scientific analysis of the treatment data.

Ventilator-induced lung injury during controlled ventilation in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome: less is probably better

INTRODUCTION

Mechanical ventilation is required to support respiratory function in the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), but it may promote lung damage, a phenomenon known as ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI). Areas covered: Several mechanisms of VILI have been described, such as: inspiratory and/or expiratory stress inducing overdistension (volutrauma); interfaces between collapsed or edema-filled alveoli with surrounding open alveoli, acting as stress raisers; alveoli that repetitively open and close during tidal breathing (atelectrauma); and peripheral airway dynamics. In this review, we discuss: the definition and classification of ARDS; ventilatory parameters that act as VILI determinants (tidal volume, respiratory rate, positive end-expiratory pressure, peak, plateau, driving and transpulmonary pressures, energy, mechanical power, and intensity); and the roles of prone positioning and muscle paralysis. We seek to provide an up-to-date overview of the evidence in the field from a clinical perspective. Expert commentary: To prevent VILI, mechanical ventilation strategies should minimize inspiratory/expiratory stress, dynamic/static strain, energy, mechanical power, and intensity, as well as mitigate the hemodynamic consequences of positive-pressure ventilation. In patients with moderate to severe ARDS, prone positioning can reduce lung damage and improve survival. Overall, volutrauma seems to be more harmful than atelectrauma. Extracorporeal support should be considered in selected cases.