Some like it hot: the influence and implications of climate change on coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and coffee production in East Africa

Future Risks of Pest Species under Changing Climatic Conditions

Most agricultural pests are poikilothermic species expected to respond to climate change. Currently, they are a tremendous burden because of the high losses they inflict on crops and livestock. Smallholder farmers in developing countries of Africa are likely to suffer more under these changes than farmers in the developed world because more severe climatic changes are projected in these areas. African countries further have a lower ability to cope with impacts of climate change through the lack of suitable adapted management strategies and financial constraints. In this study we are predicting current and future habitat suitability under changing climatic conditions for Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, three important insect pests that are common across some parts of Africa and responsible for immense agricultural losses. We use presence records from different sources and bioclimatic variables to predict their habitat suitability using the maximum entropy modelling approach. We find that habitat suitability for B. invadens, C. cosyra and T. absoluta is partially increasing across the continent, especially in those areas already overlapping with or close to most suitable sites under current climate conditions. Assuming a habitat suitability at three different threshold levels we assessed where each species is likely to be present under future climatic conditions and if this is likely to have an impact on productive agricultural areas. Our results can be used by African policy makers, extensionists and farmers for agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change.

Influence of Temperature on Intra- and Interspecific Resource Utilization within a Community of Lepidopteran Maize Stemborers

Competition or facilitation characterises intra- and interspecific interactions within communities of species that utilize the same resources. Temperature is an important factor influencing those interactions and eventual outcomes. The noctuid stemborers, Busseola fusca and Sesamia calamistis and the crambid Chilo partellus attack maize in sub-Saharan Africa. They often occur as a community of interacting species in the same field and plant at all elevations. The influence of temperature on the intra- and interspecific interactions among larvae of these species, was studied using potted maize plants exposed to varying temperatures in a greenhouse and artificial stems kept at different constant temperatures (15°C, 20°C, 25°C and 30°C) in an incubator. The experiments involved single- and multi-species infestation treatments. Survival and relative growth rates of each species were assessed. Both intra- and interspecific competitions were observed among all three species. Interspecific competition was stronger between the noctuids and the crambid than between the two noctuids. Temperature affected both survival and relative growth rates of the three species. Particularly at high temperatures, C. partellus was superior in interspecific interactions shown by higher larval survival and relative growth rates. In contrast, low temperatures favoured survival of B. fusca and S. calamistis but affected the relative growth rates of all three species. Survival and relative growth rates of B. fusca and S. calamistis in interspecific interactions did not differ significantly across temperatures. Temperature increase caused by future climate change is likely to confer an advantage on C. partellus over the noctuids in the utilization of resources (crops).

Hypoxia and hypercarbia in endophagous insects: Larval position in the plant gas exchange network is key

Gas composition is an important component of any micro-environment. Insects, as the vast majority of living organisms, depend on O2 and CO2 concentrations in the air they breathe. Low O2 (hypoxia), and high CO2 (hypercarbia) levels can have a dramatic effect. For phytophagous insects that live within plant tissues (endophagous lifestyle), gas is exchanged between ambient air and the atmosphere within the insect habitat. The insect larva contributes to the modification of this environment by expiring CO2. Yet, knowledge on the gas exchange network in endophagous insects remains sparse. Our study identified mechanisms that modulate gas composition in the habitat of endophagous insects. Our aim was to show that the mere position of the insect larva within plant tissues could be used as a proxy for estimating risk of occurrence of hypoxia and hypercarbia, despite the widely diverse life history traits of these organisms. We developed a conceptual framework for a gas diffusion network determining gas composition in endophagous insect habitats. We applied this framework to mines, galls and insect tunnels (borers) by integrating the numerous obstacles along O2 and CO2 pathways. The nature and the direction of gas transfers depended on the physical structure of the insect habitat, the photosynthesis activity as well as stomatal behavior in plant tissues. We identified the insect larva position within the gas diffusion network as a predictor of risk exposure to hypoxia and hypercarbia. We ranked endophagous insect habitats in terms of risk of exposure to hypoxia and/or hypercarbia, from the more to the less risky as cambium mines>borer tunnels≫galls>bark mines>mines in aquatic plants>upper and lower surface mines. Furthermore, we showed that the photosynthetically active tissues likely assimilate larval CO2 produced. In addition, temperature of the microhabitat and atmospheric CO2 alter gas composition in the insect habitat. We predict that (i) hypoxia indirectly favors the evolution of cold-tolerant gallers, which do not perform well at high temperatures, and (ii) normoxia (ambient O2 level) in mines allows miners to develop at high temperatures. Little is known, however, about physiological and morphological adaptations to hypoxia and hypercarbia in endophagous insects. Endophagy strongly constrains the diffusion processes with cascading consequences on the evolutionary ecology of endophagous insects.

A Keystone Ant Species Provides Robust Biological Control of the Coffee Berry Borer Under Varying Pest Densities

Species' functional traits are an important part of the ecological complexity that determines the provisioning of ecosystem services. In biological pest control, predator response to pest density variation is a dynamic trait that impacts the provision of this service in agroecosystems. When pest populations fluctuate, farmers relying on biocontrol services need to know how natural enemies respond to these changes. Here we test the effect of variation in coffee berry borer (CBB) density on the biocontrol efficiency of a keystone ant species (Azteca sericeasur) in a coffee agroecosystem. We performed exclosure experiments to measure the infestation rate of CBB released on coffee branches in the presence and absence of ants at four different CBB density levels. We measured infestation rate as the number of CBB bored into fruits after 24 hours, quantified biocontrol efficiency (BCE) as the proportion of infesting CBB removed by ants, and estimated functional response from ant attack rates, measured as the difference in CBB infestation between branches. Infestation rates of CBB on branches with ants were significantly lower (71%-82%) than on those without ants across all density levels. Additionally, biocontrol efficiency was generally high and did not significantly vary across pest density treatments. Furthermore, ant attack rates increased linearly with increasing CBB density, suggesting a Type I functional response. These results demonstrate that ants can provide robust biological control of CBB, despite variation in pest density, and that the response of predators to pest density variation is an important factor in the provision of biocontrol services. Considering how natural enemies respond to changes in pest densities will allow for more accurate biocontrol predictions and better-informed management of this ecosystem service in agroecosystems.

Can Coffee Chemical Compounds and Insecticidal Plants Be Harnessed for Control of Major Coffee Pests?

Pests and pathogens threaten coffee production worldwide and are difficult to control using conventional methods, such as insecticides. We review the literature on the chemistry of coffee, concentrating on compounds most commonly reported from Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora. Differences in chemistry can distinguish coffee species and varieties, and plants grown under different biogeographic conditions exhibit different chemotypes. A number of chemical groups, such as alkaloids and caffeoylquinic acids, are known to be insecticidal, but most studies have investigated their effects on coffee quality and flavor. More research is required to bridge this gap in knowledge, so that coffee can be bred to be more resistant to pests. Furthermore, we report on some pesticidal plants that have been used for control of coffee pests. Locally sourced pesticidal plants have been underutilized and offer a sustainable alternative to conventional insecticides and could be used to augment breeding for resilience of coffee plants.

Increases in both temperature means and extremes likely facilitate invasive herbivore outbreaks

Although increases in mean temperature (MT) and extreme high temperature (EHT) can greatly affect population dynamics of insects under global warming, how concurrent changes in both MT and EHT affect invasive species is largely unknown. We used four thermal regimes to simulate the increases in summer temperature and compared their effects on the life-history traits of three geographical populations (Chongqing, Wuhan and Shanghai) of an invasive insect, Corythucha ciliata, in China. The four thermal regimes were control (i.e., natural or ambient), an increase in MT (IMT), an increase in EHT, and a combination of IMT + EHT. We found that the three warming regimes significantly increased the developmental rate but did not affect the survival, sex ratio, longevity, or fecundity of C. ciliata. Consequently, the intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm) was enhanced and the number of days required for population doubling (t) was reduced by the warming regimes. The demographic parameters did not significantly differ among the three populations. These results indicate that population size of C. ciliata may be enhanced by increases in both temperature means and extremes. The increases in summer temperature associated with climate change, therefore, would likely facilitate population outbreaks of some thermophilic invasive insects.

Seed-Specific Stable Expression of the α-AI1 Inhibitor in Coffee Grains and the In Vivo Implications for the Development of the Coffee Berry Borer

Genetic transformation of coffee (Coffea spp.), the second most traded commodity worldwide, is an alternative approach to introducing features that cannot be introgressed by traditional crossings. The transgenic stability, heritability and quantitative and spatial expression patterns of the seed-specific promoter phytohemagglutinin (PHA-L) from Phaseolus vulgaris were characterized in genetically modified C. arabica expressing the α-amylase inhibitor-1 (α-AI1) gene. The α-AI1 inhibitor shows considerable activity toward digestive enzymes of the coffee berry borer (CBB) Hypothenemus hampei. This insect pest expends its life cycle almost entirely in coffee berries. Transgene containment in the fruit is important to meeting food and environmental safety requirements for releasing genetically modified (GM) crops. PCR analysis of T2 coffee plants showed a Mendelian single-copy segregation pattern. Ectopic transgene expression was only detected in coffee grains, as demonstrated by reverse transcription-PCR analysis of different plant tissues. An intense immunocytochemical signal associated with α-AI1 protein expression was localized to endospermic cells. In addition, a delay in the larval development of CBB was observed after challenging transgenic coffee seeds with the insect. These results indicate that the PHA-L promoter might be a useful tool in coffee for the seed-specific expression of genes related to coffee bean productivity, quality and pest protection. The biotechnological applicability of the α-AI1 gene for controlling CBB is also discussed. This work is the first report showing a seed-specific transgene expression in coffee plants.

Identification and Risk Assessment for Worldwide Invasion and Spread of Tuta absoluta with a Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Phytosanitary Measures and Management

To support management decisions, molecular characterization of data and geo-reference of incidence records of Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) were combined with data on the biology and ecology of the pest to estimate its climatic suitability and potential spread at regional and global scale. A CLIMEX model was developed and used for the global prediction of current and future climate-induced changes in the distributional shifts of T. absoluta. Results revealed that temperature and moisture characterized T. absoluta population growth while the pest ability to survive the cold, hot, wet and dry stress conditions are the primary characteristics defining its range frontiers. Simulated irrigation also played an important role in the model optimization. Model predictions suggest that T. absoluta represents an important threat to Africa, Asia, Australia, Northern Europe, New Zealand, Russian Federation and the United States of America (USA). Under climate change context, future predictions on distribution of T. absoluta indicated that the invasive nature of this pest will result in significant crop losses in certain locations whereas some parts of Africa may witness diminution in ranges. The following scenarios may occur: 1) T. absoluta damage potential may upsurge moderately in areas of Africa where the pest currently exists; 2) a range diminution in temperate to Sahel region with moderate upsurge in damage potential; 3) a range expansion in tropical Africa with reasonable upsurge of damage potential. These possible outcomes could be explained by the fact that the continent is already warm, with the average temperature in majority of localities near the threshold temperatures for optimal development and survival of T. absoluta. Outputs from this study should be useful in helping decision-makers in their assessment of site-specific risks of invasion and spread of T. absoluta with a view to developing appropriate surveillance, phytosanitary measures and management strategies.

Climate and Pest-Driven Geographic Shifts in Global Coffee Production: Implications for Forest Cover, Biodiversity and Carbon Storage

Coffee is highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, making its cultivation vulnerable to geographic shifts in response to a changing climate. This could lead to the establishment of coffee plantations in new areas and potential conflicts with other land covers including natural forest, with consequent implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We project areas suitable for future coffee cultivation based on several climate scenarios and expected responses of the coffee berry borer, a principle pest of coffee crops. We show that the global climatically-suitable area will suffer marked shifts from some current major centres of cultivation. Most areas will be suited to Robusta coffee, demand for which could be met without incurring forest encroachment. The cultivation of Arabica, which represents 70% of consumed coffee, can also be accommodated in the future, but only by incurring some natural forest loss. This has corresponding implications for carbon storage, and is likely to affect areas currently designated as priority areas for biodiversity. Where Arabica coffee does encroach on natural forests, we project average local losses of 35% of threatened vertebrate species. The interaction of climate and coffee berry borer greatly influences projected outcomes.

What's Inside That Seed We Brew? A New Approach To Mining the Coffee Microbiome

Coffee is a critically important agricultural commodity for many tropical states and is a beverage enjoyed by millions of people worldwide. Recent concerns over the sustainability of coffee production have prompted investigations of the coffee microbiome as a tool to improve crop health and bean quality. This review synthesizes literature informing our knowledge of the coffee microbiome, with an emphasis on applications of fruit- and seed-associated microbes in coffee production and processing. A comprehensive inventory of microbial species cited in association with coffee fruits and seeds is presented as reference tool for researchers investigating coffee-microbe associations. It concludes with a discussion of the approaches and techniques that provide a path forward to improve our understanding of the coffee microbiome and its utility, as a whole and as individual components, to help ensure the future sustainability of coffee production.

Predicting the Impact of Temperature Change on the Future Distribution of Maize Stem Borers and Their Natural Enemies along East African Mountain Gradients Using Phenology Models

Lepidopteran stem borers are among the most important pests of maize in East Africa. The objective of the present study was to predict the impact of temperature change on the distribution and abundance of the crambid Chilo partellus, the noctuid Busseola fusca, and their larval parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and Cotesia sesamiae at local scale along Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills gradients in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Temperature-dependent phenology models of pests and parasitoids were used in a geographic information system for mapping. The three risk indices namely establishment, generation, and activity indices were computed using current temperature data record from local weather stations and future (i.e., 2055) climatic condition based on downscaled climate change data from the AFRICLIM database. The calculations were carried out using index interpolator, a sub-module of the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. Thin plate algorithm was used for interpolation of the indices. Our study confirmed that temperature was a key factor explaining the distribution of stem borers and their natural enemies but other climatic factors and factors related to the top-down regulation of pests by parasitoids (host-parasitoid synchrony) also played a role. Results based on temperature only indicated a worsening of stem borer impact on maize production along the two East African mountain gradients studied. This was attributed to three main changes occurring simultaneously: (1) range expansion of the lowland species C. partellus in areas above 1200 m.a.s.l.; (2) increase of the number of pest generations across all altitudes, thus by 2055 damage by both pests will increase in the most productive maize zones of both transects; (3) disruption of the geographical distribution of pests and their larval parasitoids will cause an improvement of biological control at altitude below 1200 m.a.s.l. and a deterioration above 1200 m.a.s.l. The predicted increase in pest activity will significantly increase maize yield losses in all agro-ecological zones across both transects but to a much greater extent in lower areas.

Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change

Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee.

Range-expanding pests and pathogens in a warming world

Crop pests and pathogens (CPPs) present a growing threat to food security and ecosystem management. The interactions between plants and their natural enemies are influenced by environmental conditions and thus global warming and climate change could affect CPP ranges and impact. Observations of changing CPP distributions over the twentieth century suggest that growing agricultural production and trade have been most important in disseminating CPPs, but there is some evidence for a latitudinal bias in range shifts that indicates a global warming signal. Species distribution models using climatic variables as drivers suggest that ranges will shift latitudinally in the future. The rapid spread of the Colorado potato beetle across Eurasia illustrates the importance of evolutionary adaptation, host distribution, and migration patterns in affecting the predictions of climate-based species distribution models. Understanding species range shifts in the framework of ecological niche theory may help to direct future research needs.

Changes in species diversity of arboreal spiders in Mexican coffee agroecosystems: untangling the web of local and landscape influences driving diversity

Agricultural intensification is implicated as a major driver of global biodiversity loss. Local management and landscape scale factors both influence biodiversity in agricultural systems, but there are relatively few studies to date looking at how local and landscape scales influence biodiversity in tropical agroecosystems. Understanding what drives the diversity of groups of organisms such as spiders is important from a pragmatic point of view because of the important biocontrol services they offer to agriculture. Spiders in coffee are somewhat enigmatic because of their positive or lack of response to agricultural intensification. In this study, we provide the first analysis, to our knowledge, of the arboreal spiders in the shade trees of coffee plantations. In the Soconusco region of Chiapas, Mexico we sampled across 38 sites on 9 coffee plantations. Tree and canopy connectedness were found to positively influence overall arboreal spider richness and abundance. We found that different functional groups of spiders are responding to different local and landscape factors, but overall elevation was most important variable influencing arboreal spider diversity. Our study has practical management applications that suggest having shade grown coffee offers more suitable habitat for arboreal spiders due to a variety of the characteristics of the shade trees. Our results which show consistently more diverse arboreal spider communities in lower elevations are important in light of looming global climate change. As the range of suitable elevations for coffee cultivation shrinks promoting arboreal spider diversity will be important in sustaining the viability of coffee.

Cascading effects of insectivorous birds and bats in tropical coffee plantations

The loss of apex predators is known to have reverberating consequences for ecosystems, but how changes in broader predator assemblages affect vital ecosystem functions and services is largely unknown. Predators and their prey form complex interaction networks, in which predators consume not only herbivores but also other predators. Resolving these interactions will be essential for predicting changes in many important ecosystem functions, such as the control of damaging crop pests. Here, we examine how birds, bats, and arthropods interact to determine herbivorous arthropod abundance and leaf damage in Costa Rican coffee plantations. In an exclosure experiment, we found that birds and bats reduced non-flying arthropod abundance by -35% and -25%, respectively. In contrast, birds and bats increased the abundance of flying arthropods, probably by consuming spiders. The frequency of this intraguild predation differed between birds and bats, with cascading consequences for coffee shrubs. Excluding birds caused a greater increase in herbivorous arthropod abundance than excluding bats, leading to increased coffee leaf damage. Excluding bats caused an increase in spiders and other predatory arthropods, increasing the ratio of predators to herbivores in the arthropod community. Bats, therefore, did not provide benefits to coffee plants. Leaf damage on coffee was low, and probably did not affect coffee yields. Bird-mediated control of herbivores, however, may aid coffee shrubs in the long-term by preventing pest outbreaks. Regardless, our results demonstrate how complex, cascading interactions between predators and herbivores may impact plants and people.

An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica

The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions.

Effects of coffee management on deforestation rates and forest integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest-agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973-2010) across elevations in 2 forest-agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km(2) around Bonga and 3000 km(2) in Goma-Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee-growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (-10/20% vs. -40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300-2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee-growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest-specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual-crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value.

Forest bolsters bird abundance, pest control and coffee yield

Efforts to maximise crop yields are fuelling agricultural intensification, exacerbating the biodiversity crisis. Low-intensity agricultural practices, however, may not sacrifice yields if they support biodiversity-driven ecosystem services. We quantified the value native predators provide to farmers by consuming coffee's most damaging insect pest, the coffee berry borer beetle (Hypothenemus hampei). Our experiments in Costa Rica showed birds reduced infestation by ~ 50%, bats played a marginal role, and farmland forest cover increased pest removal. We identified borer-consuming bird species by assaying faeces for borer DNA and found higher borer-predator abundances on more forested plantations. Our coarse estimate is that forest patches doubled pest control over 230 km2 by providing habitat for ~ 55 000 borer-consuming birds. These pest-control services prevented US$75-US$310 ha-year(-1) in damage, a benefit per plantation on par with the average annual income of a Costa Rican citizen. Retaining forest and accounting for pest control demonstrates a win-win for biodiversity and coffee farmers.

The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of agricultural pests: the case of the coffee white stem borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe

The production of agricultural commodities faces increased risk of pests, diseases and other stresses due to climate change and variability. This study assesses the potential distribution of agricultural pests under projected climatic scenarios using evidence from the African coffee white stem borer (CWB), Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), an important pest of coffee in Zimbabwe. A species distribution modeling approach utilising Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) was applied on current and projected climate data obtained from the WorldClim database and occurrence data (presence and absence) collected through on-farm biological surveys in Chipinge, Chimanimani, Mutare and Mutasa districts in Zimbabwe. Results from both the BRT and GLM indicate that precipitation-related variables are more important in determining species range for the CWB than temperature related variables. The CWB has extensive potential habitats in all coffee areas with Mutasa district having the largest model average area suitable for CWB under current and projected climatic conditions. Habitat ranges for CWB will increase under future climate scenarios for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutare districts while it will decrease in Mutasa district. The highest percentage change in area suitable for the CWB was for Chimanimani district with a model average of 49.1% (3 906 ha) increase in CWB range by 2080. The BRT and GLM predictions gave similar predicted ranges for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutasa districts compared to the high variation in current and projected habitat area for CWB in Mutare district. The study concludes that suitable area for CWB will increase significantly in Zimbabwe due to climate change and there is need to develop adaptation mechanisms.

Temperature variation makes ectotherms more sensitive to climate change

Ectotherms are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. Descriptions of habitat temperatures and predicted changes in climate usually consider mean monthly, seasonal or annual conditions. Ectotherms, however, do not simply experience mean conditions, but are exposed to daily fluctuations in habitat temperatures. Here, we highlight how temperature fluctuation can generate 'realized' thermal reaction (fitness) norms that differ from the 'fundamental' norms derived under standard constant temperatures. Using a mosquito as a model organism, we find that temperature fluctuation reduces rate processes such as development under warm conditions, increases processes under cool conditions, and reduces both the optimum and the critical maximum temperature. Generalizing these effects for a range of terrestrial insects reveals that prevailing daily fluctuations in temperature should alter the sensitivity of species to climate warming by reducing 'thermal safety margins'. Such effects of daily temperature dynamics have generally been ignored in the climate change literature.

Climate change or urbanization? Impacts on a traditional coffee production system in East Africa over the last 80 years

Global environmental changes (GEC) such as climate change (CC) and climate variability have serious impacts in the tropics, particularly in Africa. These are compounded by changes in land use/land cover, which in turn are driven mainly by economic and population growth, and urbanization. These factors create a feedback loop, which affects ecosystems and particularly ecosystem services, for example plant-insect interactions, and by consequence agricultural productivity. We studied effects of GEC at a local level, using a traditional coffee production area in greater Nairobi, Kenya. We chose coffee, the most valuable agricultural commodity worldwide, as it generates income for 100 million people, mainly in the developing world. Using the coffee berry borer, the most serious biotic threat to global coffee production, we show how environmental changes and different production systems (shaded and sun-grown coffee) can affect the crop. We combined detailed entomological assessments with historic climate records (from 1929–2011), and spatial and demographic data, to assess GEC's impact on coffee at a local scale. Additionally, we tested the utility of an adaptation strategy that is simple and easy to implement. Our results show that while interactions between CC and migration/urbanization, with its resultant landscape modifications, create a feedback loop whereby agroecosystems such as coffee are adversely affected, bio-diverse shaded coffee proved far more resilient and productive than coffee grown in monoculture, and was significantly less harmed by its insect pest. Thus, a relatively simple strategy such as shading coffee can tremendously improve resilience of agro-ecosystems, providing small-scale farmers in Africa with an easily implemented tool to safeguard their livelihoods in a changing climate.

The impact of climate change on indigenous Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica): predicting future trends and identifying priorities

Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020-2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies 'core localities' that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change.

Heat stress impedes development and lowers fecundity of the brown planthopper Nilaparvata lugens (Stål)

This study investigated the effects of sub-lethal high temperatures on the development and reproduction of the brown plant hopper Nilaparvata lugens (Stål). When first instar nymphs were exposed at their ULT(50) (41.8°C) mean development time to adult was increased in both males and females, from 15.2±0.3 and 18.2±0.3 days respectively in the control to 18.7±0.2 and 19±0.2 days in the treated insects. These differences in development arising from heat stress experienced in the first instar nymph did not persist into the adult stage (adult longevity of 23.5±1.1 and 24.4±1.1 days for treated males and females compared with 25.7±1.0 and 20.6±1.1 days in the control groups), although untreated males lived longer than untreated females. Total mean longevity was increased from 38.8±0.1 to 43.4±1.0 days in treated females, but male longevity was not affected (40.9±0.9 and 42.2±1.1 days respectively). When male and female first instar nymphs were exposed at their ULT(50) of 41.8°C and allowed to mate on reaching adult, mean fecundity was reduced from 403.8±13.7 to 128.0±16.6 eggs per female in the treated insects. Following exposure of adult insects at their equivalent ULT(50) (42.5°C), the three mating combinations of treated male x treated female, treated male x untreated female, and untreated male x treated female produced 169.3±14.7, 249.6±21.3 and 233.4±17.2 eggs per female respectively, all significantly lower than the control. Exposure of nymphs and adults at their respective ULT(50) temperatures also significantly extended the time required for their progeny to complete egg development for all mating combinations compared with control. Overall, sub-lethal heat stress inhibited nymphal development, lowered fecundity and extended egg development time.

A survey of mangiferin and hydroxycinnamic acid ester accumulation in coffee (Coffea) leaves: biological implications and uses

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The phenolic composition of Coffea leaves has barely been studied, and therefore this study conducts the first detailed survey, focusing on mangiferin and hydroxycinnamic acid esters (HCEs).

METHODS

Using HPLC, including a new technique allowing quantification of feruloylquinic acid together with mangiferin, and histochemical methods, mangiferin content and tissue localization were compared in leaves and fruits of C. pseudozanguebariae, C. arabica and C. canephora. The HCE and mangiferin content of leaves was evaluated for 23 species native to Africa or Madagascar. Using various statistical methods, data were assessed in relation to distribution, ecology, phylogeny and use.

KEY RESULTS

Seven of the 23 species accumulated mangiferin in their leaves. Mangiferin leaf-accumulating species also contain mangiferin in the fruits, but only in the outer (sporophytic) parts. In both leaves and fruit, mangiferin accumulation decreases with ageing. A relationship between mangiferin accumulation and UV levels is posited, owing to localization with photosynthetic tissues, and systematic distribution in high altitude clades and species with high altitude representatives. Analyses of mangiferin and HCE content showed that there are significant differences between species, and that samples can be grouped into species, with few exceptions. These data also provide independent support for various Coffea lineages, as proposed by molecular phylogenetic analyses. Sampling of the hybrids C. arabica and C. heterocalyx cf. indicates that mangiferin and HCE accumulation may be under independent parental influence.

CONCLUSIONS

This survey of the phenolic composition in Coffea leaves shows that mangiferin and HCE accumulation corresponds to lineage recognition and species delimitation, respectively. Knowledge of the spectrum of phenolic accumulation within species and populations could be of considerable significance for adaptation to specific environments. The potential health benefits of coffee-leaf tea, and beverages and masticatory products made from the fleshy parts of Coffea fruits, are supported by our phenolic quantification.

Genetic variation and risks of introgression in the wild Coffea arabica gene pool in south-western Ethiopian montane rainforests

The montane rainforests of SW Ethiopia are the primary centre of diversity of Coffea arabica and the origin of all Arabica coffee cultivated worldwide. This wild gene pool is potentially threatened by forest fragmentation and degradation, and by introgressive hybridization with locally improved coffee varieties. We genotyped 703 coffee shrubs from unmanaged and managed coffee populations, using 24 microsatellite loci. Additionally, we genotyped 90 individuals representing 23 Ethiopian cultivars resistant to coffee berry disease (CBD). We determined population genetic diversity, genetic structure, and admixture of cultivar alleles in the in situ gene pool. We found strong genetic differentiation between managed and unmanaged coffee populations, but without significant differences in within-population genetic diversity. The widespread planting of coffee seedlings including CBD-resistant cultivars most likely offsets losses of genetic variation attributable to genetic drift and inbreeding. Mixing cultivars with original coffee genotypes, however, leaves ample opportunity for hybridization and replacement of the original coffee gene pool, which already shows signs of admixture. In situ conservation of the wild gene pool of C. arabica must therefore focus on limiting coffee production in the remaining wild populations, as intensification threatens the genetic integrity of the gene pool by exposing wild genotypes to cultivars.